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Despite ongoing market uncertainties, the Korean commercial real estate market continues to thrive.
Foreign investors were the first movers to recover from negative investment sentiment and actively re-
entered the market.
We recommend investors standby and be ready to act on good opportunities arising from interest rates
stabilizing. This is expected to be around the middle of the year. Additionally, we recommend investors
consider diversifying their investments across sectors to hedge yield compressions coming from
interest rate hikes and lack of liquidity.
In the Korean office leasing market, the strong influence of the tech sector continued despite an overall
reduction in investment into tech companies and startups. Despite market uncertainties, the landlord-
favoured market situation will continue in 2023 as the demand for space remains strong.
In the long term, we expect new supply to hit the CBD in the form of redevelopment. Additionally,
Seongsu-dong and other new business districts will become beneficiaries of tenants searching for
expansion space with more affordable rents, tenants that are building their own HQs, as well as the
growing trend of setting up satellite offices by conglomerates.
Conservative investment reviews and CBD and GBD expand with planned
rising interest rates redevelopment
• Commercial real estate investment reduction
• CBD: Seoul Station Expansion
• Delayed deals due to market price gap
• GBD: Continued preference for tech companies
• Downward pressure on capital values
• GBD's long-term development plan
• Upward trend in Cap Rates
Logistics investment slows down and Satellite offices and hybrid working
hotel investment jumps
• Expansion of co-working offices
• Profitability concerns rise due to rising
development costs for logistic assets • Increasing satellite offices among
Korea conglomerates
• Conversion of hotels to offices and retail
surges • Hybrid working style becomes popular
2
Interest rate hikes are reshaping the investment market (I)
Conservative investing and tightening reviews
4% 57
3.50% 60
3.25% 49
3% 50 42
2.50%
2.25% 40 32
31
1.75%
30
20
10
0
22.05 22.07 22.08 22.10 22.11 23.01 23 E 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Source: Bank of Korea (BOK) Source: Colliers, RCA, Note: Survey data includes all property types.
The Bank of Korea Bank Lending Rate Korean Real Estate Investment by Sector
(KRW Trillion)
3
Interest rate hikes are reshaping the investment market (II)
Widening price gap between buyers and sellers
Closing delays due to price gap between Downward pressure on capital values
buyers and sellers Assets under funds and REITs that failed to
The price gap between buyers and sellers is refinance loans are expected to appear in the
widening. Continued landlord-favored office market. In this regard, sellers may be under
leasing market is pushing up rent levels, while more pressure to adjust their selling price.
increasing interest rates have made investment The price gap between buyers and sellers is
activities more conservative. widening, and as of the date of publication of
As buyers are waiting for sales prices to fall and this report, there are no examples of assets
sellers are unwilling to lower their asking prices, being sold at a discount. In the future though,
we view that either investors are withdrawing we do expect office prices to face downward
from participating deals or sellers are delaying pressure.
deals. In fact, several preferred bidders for assets that
Investment in prime offices are expected were put on the market last year which have not
yet closed, are requesting agreed-prices to be
to decrease renegotiated.
The overall Korean prime office investment
Cap Rate (NOI/Value) Increase
volume in 2022 showed similar levels to that of
year 2021: KRW13.6 trillion (2022). KRW13.2 Office real estate Cap Rate is expected to rise in
trillion (2021). volume in 2023 for following two reasons. First,
continued landlord-favoured market will uphold
The prime office investment volume in 2022 was
rents and NOI levels. Second, sales price is likely
able to record similar levels during unfavourable
to fall due to lack of liquidity in the market.
market conditions in Q4 2022 due to pre-
purchased development deals, investment deals Korean office Cap Rate is at the 3.5%~4.5% level,
for major REITs, and the timing of closing. and the spread between the 5-year KTB yield in
Q4 2022 was 27bps.
The 2023 prime office investment volume by
domestic institutions will decrease until the first
half of the year because interest rates are
expected to stabilize in the second half of 2023.
Office Transaction Volume & Capital Value Prime Office Cap Rate
Spread Average Cap Rate 5 year Treasary bond
16 30
Capital Value KRW/PY (Million)
14
25 1000 5.00%
Volume KRW Trillion
12 4.50%
20 800 4.00%
10
600 3.50%
8 15 3.00%
400 2.50%
6 2.00%
10
200 1.50%
4
5 0 1.00%
2 0.50%
- - -200 0.00%
1Q18
2Q18
3Q18
4Q18
1Q19
2Q19
3Q19
4Q19
1Q20
2Q20
3Q20
4Q20
1Q21
2Q21
3Q21
4Q21
1Q22
2Q22
3Q22
4Q22
4
Interest rate hikes are reshaping the investment market (III)
Foreign investors are expected to actively participate investment
5
Investment slows down in logistics market
Conservative review and investing activities
Investment reduction in logistics On the other hand, blue-chip sites that failed to
raise funds through PF are expected to gain
The total investment volume in logistics centers attention from foreign PE funds and foreign
in the metropolitan area in 2022 was KRW 4.2 investors.
trillion. Investment volume has decreased more
than 70% when compared to KRW 7.2 trillion in
Cap Rate (NOI/Value) Rise
2021. However, total investment volume of
logistics in Korea did not drop significantly when The Cap Rate of logistics centers are projected to
compared to 2021. Total investment volume in increase as rent growth will be limited due to
2022 was KRW 11.7 trillion and was KRW 12 interest hikes and rising vacancy rates.
trillion in 2021. Logistics sector showed much As logistics market is sensitive to macroeconomic
resilience compared to investment performance changes and uncertainty grows, logistics centers
of both office and retail. will face a difficult time finding tenants which will
Less investment activitiy in the logistics market is cause upward pressure on Cap Rates eventually.
projected in 2023 but will continue to stay as one Cap Rate level for logistics centers is projected at
of the most sought-after assets for investors, as 5%~6%.
long as they focus on good locations.
Korea Logistics Investment (KRW Trillion) Metropolitan Area Logistics Investment Scale
14 12.2 8 10
11.7
Capital Value KRW/PY (Million)
12 7 9
Transaction Volume KRW (Trillion)
8
10 6
7
5 6
8 6.5
4 5
6 4.4 4
3
3.3 3
4 2
2
2 1 1
0 0 0
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
6
Hotel investment increases
Growing investment in converting hotels into offices and residences
7
ESG standards and investment decisions
The importance of ESG standards rises in investment decision making
8
Influence of tech companies continues
Demand maintained despite investment reductions
9
Expansion of GBD area
Expanding the prime office market in Seocho and Gangnam station
Project Note
• Seocho Station, Gyodae Station, and Gangnam Station area of
Lotte Chilsung Site 590,000㎡ district unit plan is established
• 42,312㎡ site with 47 floors of office, hotel, cultural facilities
development plan
Seocho Kolon Sporex Site • 8,900㎡ site with 25-floors mixed-use facility development plan
10
Expansion of new office sites
Rise of Seongsu-dong area
11
Expansion of CBD office market
Expanding CBD area with new supply
12
Expansion of Co-working office space
Expansion of co-working office space and hybrid working
Source: Colliers
14
For further information, please contact:
Judy Jang Robert Wilkinson
Director | Research | Korea Managing Director | Korea
+82 2 6325 1918 +82 2 6325 1901
Judy.Jang@colliers.com Robert.Wilkinson@colliers.com
Sungwook Cho
Executive Director | Capital
Markets and Investment Services|
Korea
+82 2 6325 1904
sungwook.cho@colliers.com
Jay Cho
Senior Director | Office &
Industrial Services| Korea
+82 2 6325 1905
Jay.Cho@colliers.com
Jeanne Choi
Director | Valuation & Advisory
Services| Korea
+82 2 6325 1903
Jeanne.Choi@colliers.com
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