Page | 3

Page | 3
Analyzing Electrical Grid Reliability: A Case Study of Outages and Failures

A Capstone Project
Presented to the Faculty of
Department of Engineering
Eastern Visayas State University Ormoc City – Campus
Ormoc, City

In Partial Fulfillment of the

Requirements for the Degree
EE – 432 Management of Engineering Projects

By:
Acebedo, Charlit Ann
Yuson, May Anas S.

December, 2023

Page | 4
 Table of Contents

I. Cover Page

II. Table of Contents

III. Abstract…………………………………………………………………….………1

IV. Introduction……………………………………………………………….………..1-2

V. Review of Related Literature……………………………………………………....2-3

VI. Methods…………………………………………………….………………………4

VII. Results and Discussion………………………………………………….………….5

VIII. Conclusion…………………………………………………….……………………5

IX. Recommendations………………………………………………………………….5

X. Reference List………………………………………..……..….…………………..6

Page | 5
 Abstract

Electrical grid dependability and resilience are essential to modern society' smooth operation.
A thorough case study investigation of electrical grid reliability is presented in this capstone
project, with an emphasis on outages and failures. By means of a multifaceted analysis that
includes root cause investigations, spatial vulnerability mapping, socio-economic impact
assessments, historical data analysis, and resilience strategy development, the research seeks
to offer a comprehensive comprehension of the opportunities and challenges associated with
maintaining a stable and flexible energy infrastructure.

Introduction

In a time when reliance on technology is essential, the stability of the electrical grid is essential
to the smooth operation of contemporary modernity. Maintaining a steady supply of electricity
is essential for running enterprises, residences, and vital infrastructure. But the necessity for a
thorough analysis of the electrical grid's resilience has been highlighted by the system's
expanding complexity as well as the frequency and severity of outages and failures.

The distribution of electricity from power producing sources to end users is made easier by the
electrical grid, which forms the foundation of modern society. Despite being built with
resilience and redundancy in mind, disruptions can nevertheless affect the grid. Its reliability
is severely hampered by elements including severe weather, equipment malfunctions,
cyberattacks, and human mistake in operations.

Grid failures have become more frequent and severe in recent years, which has resulted in
significant financial losses and inconveniences for society. These disruptions have far-reaching
effects for businesses, healthcare facilities, and people's daily lives in addition to being an
annoyance. It is essential to comprehend the underlying causes of these outages in order to
develop practical solutions that will lessen their effects and increase grid reliability.
According to research by the Philippine Institute for Development Studies (PIDS), the nation
lost 107.5 million consumer hours in 2021 as a result of power outages brought on by storms,
earthquakes, and lightning. According to a statement from Kris Francisco, author of "Electricity
Supply Interruptions in the Philippines: Characteristics, Trends, Causes," and PIDS research
fellow, this is a 10% increase from the 97.2 million customer hours recorded in 2015.
According to the report, electric cooperative users had an average of 5.7 power outages or 8.8
hours without power in 2021. This suggests that whereas Visayas had lengthier power outages,
Luzon had more frequent power failures. Francisco said that supply, technical, environmental,
or "interruptions due to natural events"—such as storms—as well as other concerns covered
by the monthly interruption reports that are "prescribed" or not specifically mentioned—were
to blame for the power outages. The study found that extended power outages caused by storms
and other environmental conditions were more common in Luzon. Francisco claimed that the
nation's power supply is still insufficient. Policies don't focus much on enhancing the supply
of electricity's dependability.

Page | 1
According to the PIDS author, "the rapidly increasing demand for electricity is creating stress
during months of peak power demand, leading to widespread blackouts and interruptions in the
supply of electricity." The Department of Energy (DOE) stated in its 2023 power outlook that
there could be 12 yellow alerts for the Luzon Grid this year, especially during the summer. The
PIDS report suggested that policies be developed to increase EC's access to additional power
supply and generation capacity, as well as giving priority to climate-proofing infrastructure
related to power and electricity.
In this capstone project, the reliability of the electrical grid is thoroughly studied with an
emphasis on the analysis of outages and breakdowns. To improve the overall resilience of the
electrical grid, it is intended to find patterns, pinpoint the underlying causes, and suggest
tactical measures. This project aims to make a significant contribution to the fields of
infrastructure management, resilience planning, and electrical engineering by using a thorough
case study approach.

Problem Statement

The modern world depends on the electrical grid's stability, and any disruptions to its operation
can have dire repercussions. Concerns about the frequency and complexity of outages and
breakdowns in electrical networks have grown, and a thorough investigation is now required.
This problem statement highlights the crucial points that highlight the necessity of an extensive
case study on the reliability of the electrical grid, with an emphasis on failures and outages.
In light of these challenges, the proposed capstone project seeks to address the gaps in
understanding electrical grid reliability by conducting a comprehensive case study analysis of
outages and failures. Through this study, the goal is to contribute valuable insights that can
inform strategies for building a more resilient and reliable electrical grid in the face of evolving
challenges

Review of Related Literature

Some previous researchers have research about Electrical power grids under cascading
failures. Liang Chang and Zhigang Wu about Performance and reliability of electrical power
grids under cascading failures at International Journal of Electrical Power and Energy Systems
on 2011 that modern cities cannot function continuously without their electrical power grids,
which are also essential for emergence management's mitigation, preparedness, reaction, and
recovery phases. China's current power networks are particularly sensitive to external
disturbances like hurricanes, earthquakes, and terrorist attacks, which could result in cascade
failures or blackouts, since they frequently operate close to their critical operation points. The
stability and dependability of electricity grids are quantitatively investigated in this work, with
an emphasis on cascade failures under external disturbances. The 118-bus (substation) power
network in Hainan, China is used as a case study to investigate the risk of cascading failure of
the regional power grids. System performance and reliability of the power grids are evaluated
under two hypothetical scenarios (seismic impact and intentional disturbance) that could trigger
cascading failures.

Page | 2
The robustness of the power network is evaluated under the triggered cascading failures by
identifying the most vulnerable (critical) edges and nodes. This paper describes a quantitative
investigation of the stability and reliability of power grids with an emphasis on cascading
failures under external disturbances. The system reliabilities are determined to be susceptible
to a 95% drop during a triggered cascade failure. In order to comprehend the intricate process
of cascading failures, this research also investigates the application of ideas from contemporary
complex network theories, such as the state transition graph and characteristic length. The
results may help emergency management and the power industry assess how vulnerable power
systems are, comprehend the possibility of blackouts brought on by cascading failures, and
strengthen the systems' resistance to outside disruptions.
Another paper studies about Cascading failure analysis for power grid by Vaishali Rampurkar,
Polgani Pentayya, Harivittal A Mangalvedekar, Faruk Kazi at IEEE Transactions on Smart
Grid, 2016 that major power grid blackouts in various parts of the world are characterized by
voltage collapse. The Indian power grid's blackout event, which was caused by a voltage
collapse in the interregional corridor. Initially, the computer simulation models are adjusted to
correspond with the output of the phasor measuring units at different grid points. Inter-area
modes with lower damping at frequencies of 0.3 and 0.5 Hz were seen as a result of switching
activities that took place during the disturbance. This research uses a power system simulator
for engineering to simulate the intricate power grid network of the Northern area under various
loading circumstances. In order to estimate the inter-area mode for various NR loading
situations, the system variables are further examined using the Prony approach. This paper also
discusses the maximum loading capacity for the inter-regional lines in order to avoid loss of
small signal stability, and emphasizes the use of real-time phasor measurement unit
measurements in order to estimate and track the oscillatory modes. The eigen values associated
with the 0.3 Hz mode depict the movement from open left half plane into open right half plane
with a slight increase in the parameter indicating "hopf bifurcation."
Another study of Power grid vulnerability to geographically correlated failures – Analysis and
control implications by Andrey Bernstein, Daniel Beinstock, David Hay, Meric Uzunoglu, Gil
Zussman at IEEE INFOCOM 2014-IEEE conference on computer communications, 2014
consider line outages in the transmission network of the power grid, and specifically those
caused by natural disasters or large – scale physical attacks. In these networks, a line failure
could cause overload on other lines, which would then cause other lines to fail. The associated
communication networks and the electricity grid might both be severely damaged by such a
cascade. We examine a model of these failures and demonstrate how it is distinct from other
models (such as epidemic/percolation-based models) that are employed to examine cascades.
We demonstrate how to locate the network's most susceptible points using techniques inspired
by those created for network-survivability research. We examine a model of these failures and
demonstrate how it is distinct from other models (such as epidemic/percolation-based models)
that are employed to examine cascades. We demonstrate how to locate the network's most
susceptible points using techniques inspired by those created for network-survivability
research. Along with estimating the effects of regionally connected outages, we also conduct
extensive numerical experiments using real grid data and briefly address mitigating strategies.
The implementation of the smart-grid networking infrastructure will be impacted by the
proposed algorithms, which might suggest possible grid monitoring locations.

Page | 3
 Methodology

Through the integration of several data sources and the consideration of qualitative factors, this
methodology seeks to provide a thorough and systematic study of electrical grid reliability. The
findings will improve our understanding of grid failures and outages, enabling the development
of evidence-based plans for improving resilience and overall dependability.

Case Study Approach

Grid failures are complicated and distinctive; hence a targeted case study approach is required.
To extract context-specific insights, identify lessons learned, and generate evidence-based
initiatives for improving grid dependability, a rigorous analysis of real-world instances is
essential.

Historical Data Analysis:

Results: Finding patterns and trends in the frequency of outages, with a focus on peak demand
times and variances in outage lengths.
Discussion: Identifying the need for specific approaches during periods of high demand and
investigating the causes of lengthy outages.
Root Cause Analysis:
Results: Finding similarities between human mistake and poor infrastructure as causes of grid
outages.
Discussion: The focus lies on mitigating systemic vulnerabilities and using human-centric
solutions to improve the resilience of the grid.
Geospatial Vulnerability Mapping:
Results: Finding hotspots of susceptibility and connecting them to environmental variables.
Discussion: Insights into the need for more monitoring in sensitive areas, climate-resilient
plans, and focused infrastructure investment.
Socio – Economic Impact Assessment:
Results: Analysis of social disruptions and measurement of financial losses during blackouts.
Discussion: Plans for economic resilience and techniques to keep vital social services running
even in the event of grid breakdowns advised.
Development of Resilience Strategies:
Results: Creation of cooperative projects and flexible solutions engaging several stakeholders.
Discussion: Developing a common approach to grid dependability through promoting shared
responsibility and customizing resilience solutions for particular causes.
Page | 4
 Results and Discussion

The outcomes and discussions highlight the complex network of variables impacting the
dependability of the electrical system. Every aspect adds to a complete picture, from past
patterns to underlying causes, geographic vulnerabilities, socioeconomic effects, and resistance
tactics. In addition to pointing out problems, the case study method offers a road map for doable
solutions. Moving forward, the results add to the larger discussion about grid resilience by
providing stakeholders with practical advice on how to improve the dependability of electrical
systems in the face of changing obstacles. In addition to offering a thorough grasp of previous
events, the case study method establishes the foundation for flexible methods that can endure
the intricacies of the modern energy economy.

Conclusion

In conclusion up, the reliability of the electrical grid case study analysis has given result in a
solid basis for comprehending and resolving issues related to failures and outages. The results
provide stakeholders with practical insights that will aid in the continuous efforts to strengthen
the electrical grid against disruptions and guarantee a dependable and resilient energy
infrastructure going forward. Managing a stable electrical grid in the face of new challenges
will require constant modification of resilience methods as the energy landscape develops.

Recommendations
Implement Targeted Resilience Strategies:
Develop and implement targeted resilience strategies based on the identified vulnerabilities and
root causes, considering the unique challenges of specific regions.
Invest in Advanced Monitoring Technologies:
Invest in advanced monitoring technologies, including smart grid solutions and real-time data
analytics, to enhance situational awareness and enable swift responses to emerging grid issues.
Enhance Cross-Sector Collaboration:
Foster collaboration between grid operators, government agencies, and critical infrastructure
sectors to establish a cohesive and coordinated response to grid failures, ensuring a holistic
approach to resilience.
Continuous Monitoring and Adaptation:
Establish a continuous monitoring framework to track evolving patterns and adapt resilience
strategies accordingly. This proactive approach ensures that the electrical grid remains resilient
in the face of dynamic challenges.

Page | 5
 Reference List

Bernstein, A., Bienstock, D., Hay, D., Uzunoglu, M., & Zussman, G. (2014, July 7). Power
grid vulnerability to geographically correlated failures — Analysis and control implications.
IEEE Xplore. Retrieved November 25, 2023, from https://ieeexplore.ieee.org
Chang, L., & Wu, Z. (2011, October 8). Performance and reliability of electrical power grids
under cascading failures. Science Direct. Retrieved November 25, 2023, from
https://www.sciencedirect.com
D.P. Nedic et al. Criticality in a cascading failure blackout model Int J Electr Power Energy
Syst (2006)
Laurence A. Clarfeld, Paul D. H. Hines, Eric M. Hernandez, Margaret J. Eppstein, "Risk of
Cascading Blackouts Given Correlated Component Outages", IEEE Transactions on Network
Science and Engineering, vol.7, no.3, pp.1133-1144, 2020
N. Alguacil et al. Transmission network expansion planning under deliberate outages Int J
Electr Power Energy Syst (2009)
Pallabi Sarkar, Dipanjan Bose, Abhiram Alayil, Chandan Kumar Chanda, Sandeep Kumar
Chawrasia, Abhijit Chakrabarti, "Analysis of Cascading Failures in the Study of Power System
Resiliency", 2022 1st IEEE International Conference on Industrial Electronics: Developments
& Applications (ICIDeA), pp.157-162, 2022
Philippines Institute for Development Studies. (2023, February 7). Consumer hours lost to
power interruptions rose 10%. Retrieved November 25, 2023, from https://www.pids.gov.ph
Rampurkar, V., Pentayya, P., A. Mangalvedekar, H., & Kazi, F. (2016, March 17). Cascading
Failure Analysis for Indian Power Grid. IEEE Xplore. Retrieved November 25, 2023, from
https://ieeexplore.ieee.org
Vetrivel Subramaniam Rajkumar, Alexandru Ştefanov, Alfan Presekal, Peter Palensky, José
Luis Rueda Torres, "Cyber Attacks on Power Grids: Causes and Propagation of Cascading
Failures", IEEE Access, vol.11, pp.103154-103176, 2023.

Page | 6