Research Proposal

Diplomacy Unveiled: A Holistic

Study of India-Bangladesh Relations

Sahonawaz Alom

Introduction:

India and Bangladesh, despite their geographical proximity, experienced

fluctuating bilateral relations over four decades. While historical, cultural, and
economic ties were significant, political differences often hindered
cooperation. The turning point came in 2010 with Prime Minister Sheikh
Hasina's visit to India, marking a shift toward collaboration. Past grievances
were set aside for a forward-looking partnership, facilitated by India's strategic
foreign policy under the Modi-led government. The evolving Indian stance
toward its neighbors, driven by a desire for a larger role in Asia, influenced its
relationship with Bangladesh.

This research proposal aims to critically analyze the future relations between
Bangladesh and India by addressing major unresolved issues, including trade
imbalance, water sharing disagreements concerning Farakka and Teesta
Barrages, transit, and transhipment concerns.

India and Bangladesh's bilateral relationship has been influenced by several

factors, including the rise of China as a major player in the region. China's
growing presence has prompted India to strengthen ties with Bangladesh,
fostering a sense of shared security interests and economic cooperation.

Geographically, West Bengal shares a border with Bangladesh, making it a

vital neighbor for both trade and people-to-people interactions. For instance,
the state acts as a gateway for medical tourism, providing healthcare services
to Bangladeshi nationals. Additionally, West Bengal's ports, especially
Kolkata, have the potential to serve as crucial transit points for goods destined
for Bangladesh.
However, political disagreements and fluctuations in West Bengal's state-level
politics have occasionally created challenges in maintaining a consistent and
cohesive approach to the India-Bangladesh relationship. Despite these
challenges, efforts have been made to address these issues and promote
stability, emphasizing the importance of sustained dialogue and cooperation
between the two nations.

The proposal will focus on exploring these challenges and opportunities,

emphasizing the need for multi-faceted, mutually beneficial cooperative efforts
to enhance bilateral relations between Bangladesh and India.

Challenges & Opportunities for Bangladesh and India

The resolution of land enclaves, maritime boundaries, and border

demarcation issues signifies a strategic achievement, fostering positive future
relations between Bangladesh and India. Both nations face challenges and
opportunities in addressing major issues to sustain their friendly ties.

During the visit of the Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi to Bangladesh in
June 2015, Bangladesh and India signed the historic 44 heard old land border
agreement by exchanging 152 enclaves. The Modi government's resolution of
longstanding issues has built trust and transformed perceptions in
Bangladesh. This positive shift opens the door to stronger, strategic relations,
benefitting both nations.

Access to Bangladesh seaports is of great economic and strategic

advantages to India. Such developments could also help India realizing its
decades-old 'Look-East' policy towards the ASEAN countries. The future of
Bangladesh-India relations hinges on India's proactive approach in resolving
unsettled issues. Regardless of political dynamics, a congenial attitude is
crucial. Political leaders must seize opportunities and maintain positive
momentum to address critical outstanding issues.

Trade Imbalance and Ways to Resolve : Bangladesh incurred a trade deficit

of $14 billion with India in 2021-22 and this has almost trebled from $5 billion
in 2015-16. Both Bangladesh and India have realized that trade imbalance
was not in the interest of either partner. For making trade an effective one,
India and Bangladesh signed various treaties such as 'Treaty of friendship &
Co-operation and peace' (1972), 'Balance Trade and Payment Agreement'
(1973) but these couldn't reach the desired level of trade and imbalance
persist. With a view to resolve the issue of trade imbalance, South Asian
Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) was established but SAARC
failed because India-Pakistan could not fix their continued security issues.
Increasing maritime trade through projects like BIMSTEC offers a solution to
the trade imbalance, allowing India and Bangladesh to utilize seaports in
Myanmar, Thailand, and Sri Lanka. Unlike land-based trade, maritime trade is
less susceptible to political criticism. To address the gap, initiatives like
zero-duty access for Bangladeshi textile items in India were introduced. Direct
trade with India's Northeastern Region can further balance trade.

Bangladesh needs to tap into the growing awareness of its products in Indian
markets and address internal political instability to attract more investors.
Recent amendments in the trade agreement now allow Bangladesh to trade
with third countries like Nepal and Bhutan via India's routes, potentially
reducing the trade imbalance. The positive political relations between India
and Bangladesh signal a promising future for bilateral ties.

Water Sharing Disputes and Its Ways to Resolve : Bangladesh shares 54

common rivers with India particularly the Ganges, Brahmaputra and Teesta
(GBT). Changes of the GBT flow from the upper riparian India have
significantly impacted on the lower riparian Bangladesh. Furthermore,
constructing barrages like Farakka at Ganga and Gajoldoba at Teesta had
swept away the relations between the two countries with accusations and
counter accusations on the causes of flood, dryness in the affected areas.
Meanwhile major political changes in both the countries created a new
momentum in bilateral relations. Under the Joint River Commission (JRC)
both the countries are taking considering action so that both can put each
other at in a favorable position.
Transit and Transhipment Issues : The Indian government seeks transit
through Bangladesh to enhance economic growth, facilitating trade to India's
Northeastern Region and ensuring transportation of raw materials to Indian
industries. The proximity of Chittagong Seaport offers cost-effective transport
solutions compared to distant ports like Kolkata. India needs the transit
through Bangladesh for its transportation of goods not only for the cost also
for the security reason.
However, many in Bangladesh views that opening its gate to India for its NER
will raise security, political, and economic concerns for Bangladesh. While
some argue for transit without politicizing it, core bilateral issues like trade
deficits and water sharing must be resolved.
The transit issue, integral to broader bilateral concerns with India,
necessitates a holistic approach. Experts suggest initial railway connectivity.
Businesses emphasize the need for comprehensive consideration of
economic, political, and subregional development. Tariff negotiations require
careful consensus. Security concerns are vital but seem manageable given
economic benefits. Transit would unlock the Northeastern Region's mineral,
natural, and raw material potential, offering a cost-effective means for
exploration and utilization.

West Bengal as a Catalyst for India-Bangladesh relations: West Bengal's

strategic significance lies in its geography, sharing borders with multiple Indian
states and neighboring countries such as Nepal, Bhutan, Bangladesh,
Myanmar, and Thailand. Kolkata, its capital, acts as a crucial hub for India's
connectivity with eastern and southeastern neighbors.
Several projects, including rail links with Bangladesh and potential extensions
to Southeast Asian countries, position Bengal as a direct participant in India's
foreign policy goals of 3'C's Connectivity, Commerce, and Cultural
Commonalities.
Initiatives like the Chilahati-Haldibari Rail Link and maritime trade agreements
underscore Bengal's role in India's Connectivity, Commerce, and Cultural
Commonalities agenda.
The concept of paradiplomacy, involving regional governments in foreign
policy, is crucial. West Bengal, particularly Kolkata, can play a significant role
in paradiplomacy, fostering international ties and economic partnerships,
cultural exchanges.
However, political differences between the state and center a few years ago
has strained the relationship with Bangladesh when a Teesta agreement was
almost completed. Later, with changing government in New Delhi brought
some aspects.
Maintaining cooperative ties between the state and the center is essential for
stability and advancing India's international relations in the Indo-Pacific,
especially with countries like Bangladesh.

Growing Chinese factor in Bangladesh-India relations: In the context of

rapidly evolving geopolitics, there are growing concerns in India about
Bangladesh potentially moving closer to China, owing to recent disputes
between Dhaka and New Delhi. Anti-Indian sentiment in Bangladesh has been
exacerbated by certain domestic policies of India. China has seized this
opportunity by making substantial investments in Bangladesh, bolstering
economic ties, and initiating infrastructural development projects in the country
through initiatives like the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). China's strategic
interest in Bangladesh, especially its proximity to the Bay of Bengal and the
Indian Ocean, is viewed as part of its broader maritime strategy.
Despite these developments, New Delhi believes that Bangladesh is unlikely
to openly break with India due to their longstanding relationship. However, the
Modi government is urged to reconsider its domestic policies to prevent further
strain in India-Bangladesh relations and to avoid pushing Bangladesh closer
to China's orbit. India's efforts should be aimed at building trust, showcasing
mutual benefits, and demonstrating India's commitment to Bangladesh's
progress, thereby countering China's growing presence in the region.

Research Gap:
Enhancing India-Bangladesh Trade Connectivity: Unexplored Avenues and
Research Imperatives

India and Bangladesh have initiated groundbreaking maritime agreements, including

Coastal trade pacts and Transshipment facilities, paving the way for extensive trade
opportunities. These agreements, coupled with the potential of a Bimstec Free Trade
Agreement, encompassing 1.67 billion people and a combined GDP of $3.71 trillion,
signify a significant economic region. However, challenges such as inactive rail
connectivity and impending trade privilege changes for Bangladesh necessitate
urgent research. This study delves into these complexities, highlighting the pressing
need to reinvigorate agreements and ensure sustained regional economic growth.
Exploring these unexplored facets is paramount to understanding the
complexities of these initiatives fully, ensuring their sustainability, and fostering
enduring regional economic growth.

Navigating Geopolitical Complexities: India-Bangladesh Relations

Beyond the Chinese Prism:

It is evident that Bangladesh finds itself in a complex geopolitical situation,

caught between the interests of major global players like China and the United
States. The statements made by China's ambassador, Li Jiming, indicate that
China is wary of Bangladesh forming alliances with countries that are part of
the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad) – a strategic forum comprising the
US, Japan, Australia, and India.
Recently made, Ambassador Li's warnings to Dhaka against joining the Quad
suggest that China perceives the Quad as an "anti-China camp" and is
concerned about the impact it could have on China-Bangladesh relations.
Despite the existing geopolitical challenges, there needs to be a more
profound exploration concerning how India perceives its relationship with
Bangladesh in the context of regional power dynamics. Comprehensive
research focusing on India's perspective is essential to understand the
nuances of India-Bangladesh relations beyond immediate geopolitical
influences.

India's Role in Raising Awareness and Mitigating the Evolving Debt Trap
Challenges:

India's influence in preventing Bangladesh from falling into China's perceived

'debt trap' is a crucial area that demands extensive research and analysis.
The current discourse on China's Belt and Road Initiative has evolved
adopting new methods and strategies with changing times.
Understanding the mechanisms through which India could offer strategic
alternatives and financial support to Bangladesh, ensuring it doesn't succumb
to unsustainable debt burdens, is an area ripe for intensive scholarly
exploration. Understanding these updated tactics is crucial, especially in the
context of countries like Bangladesh, which are navigating complex economic
landscapes.

Exploring Updated Avenues in India-Bangladesh Relations through

Paradiplomacy in West Bengal

India, leveraging the power of paradiplomacy, particularly through the state of

West Bengal, holds the key to fostering robust relations with Bangladesh.West
Bengal, sharing a border with Bangladesh, serves as a vital bridge connecting
the two nations. Its strategic geographical location opens doors for extensive
trade and commerce, creating a mutually beneficial economic ecosystem.
Moreover, through Bangladesh, West Bengal can emerge as a gateway to
Southeast Asia, further amplifying its regional influence.
As the world undergoes rapid transformations, it is crucial to delve deeper into
the possibilities of this paradiplomatic avenue, exploring how both India and
Bangladesh can capitalize on their geographical proximity and historical ties to
foster enduring partnerships in trade, culture, and regional stability

Research Questions:

1. Why bilateral tensions persist between India and Bangladesh?

 2. In what ways can a stable India-Bangladesh relationship enhance
regional stability and economic growth, aligning with India's strategic
objectives of 'Act East' and 'Neighborhood First' policies?
3. What alternative, sustainable development models can Bangladesh and
India propose within the Indo-Pacific framework to counter China's debt
diplomacy concerns and ensure transparent, mutually beneficial
infrastructure projects?
4. How does the implementation of paradiplomacy in West Bengal
influence India's economic and diplomatic relations with Bangladesh,
particularly in the context of cross-border trade, cultural exchanges, and
regional stability?
5. How economic integration could help India and Bangladesh fulfil the
expectations of their people?

Literature Review

1. The author Anusua Roy Choudhary in the article titled

"India-Bangladesh Relations: A Comprehensive Analysis," the highlight
the deep-rooted historical and cultural ties between India and
Bangladesh, emphasizing shared heritage and sacrifices during
significant events like the Partition. The focus is on the revival of transit
routes and improved connectivity, with states like Tripura playing vital
roles. The authors stress collaborative efforts to address climate change
challenges and advocate for seizing economic opportunities.
Small-scale initiatives like Border Haats are praised for their impactful
role in revitalizing connectivity. Despite challenges, the literature calls
for sustained efforts, inclusive platforms, and cooperative initiatives,
aiming for a future marked by mutual prosperity and enduring
friendship.

2. In the article "As India Acts East, the Role of West Bengal" by
Pratnashree Basu and Soumya Bhowmick, the authors highlight West
Bengal's strategic importance in India's Act East Policy. They
emphasize the state's unique geographic position, connecting India with
 neighboring countries like Nepal, Bhutan, Bangladesh, Myanmar, and
Thailand. The article discusses the need for cooperative center-state
relations and explores West Bengal's potential in enhancing India's
diplomatic and economic ties with Southeast Asia. The authors
advocate for paradiplomacy, enabling local governments to engage in
foreign policy initiatives, attract investments, and promote economic
partnerships. The article calls for a more constructive relationship
between state and central governments to maximize West Bengal's role
in India's engagement with eastern and southeastern Asia.

3. Adam Pitman in his article Title: "How economic integration could help
India and Bangladesh fulfil the expectations of their people" discusses
the potential of economic integration between India and Bangladesh to
fulfill the expectations of their people. Efforts to improve connectivity,
such as the Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Nepal Motor Vehicles
Agreement and various maritime agreements, are expected to boost
economic activity. These initiatives are projected to increase real
income levels in both countries and create market opportunities. The
article emphasizes the need for continued efforts in trade agreements,
despite challenges like protectionism, and highlights the importance of
sustainable sourcing and ethical supply chains. The improved
connectivity and trade relationships have the potential to transform the
region and benefit both countries' economies.
Tentative Chapterisation

Chapter 1: Introduction

Background and Context

●Historical context of India-Bangladesh relations.
●Overview of the key issues and challenges faced by both nations.

Rationale and Objectives

●Why studying India-Bangladesh relations is crucial.
●Research questions and objectives of the study.

Scope and Limitations

●Define the scope of the research and its limitations.

Methodology
●Research methods, data collection, and analysis techniques used.

Chapter 2: Historical Context of India-Bangladesh Relations

Early Relations
●Pre-independence interactions and historical ties.

Partition and Creation of Bangladesh

●Impact of partition on the region and emergence of Bangladesh.

Post-Independence Relations
●Key events and developments shaping bilateral relations.

Chapter 3: Evolution of India-Bangladesh Relations

Political Shifts and Diplomatic Initiatives
●Analysis of major political events influencing relations.
●Key diplomatic efforts by both nations.

Economic Cooperation
●Trade agreements, economic partnerships, and challenges faced.
●Role of regional economic organizations like BIMSTEC.

Chapter 4: Key Challenges in India-Bangladesh Relations

Trade Imbalance
●Factors contributing to trade imbalance and its impact.
●Efforts made to address trade disparities.

Water Sharing Disputes

●Analysis of water disputes, especially concerning Ganges, Brahmaputra, and
Teesta rivers.
●Joint River Commission (JRC) initiatives and their effectiveness.

Transit and Transshipment Issues

●Challenges faced in transit agreements.
●Security, political, and economic concerns related to transit.

Chapter 5: Opportunities and Solutions

Economic Integration and Trade

●Potential avenues for enhancing economic ties.
●Role of maritime trade agreements and regional cooperation.

Water Sharing Solutions

●Proposals and negotiations for resolving water disputes.
●Sustainable water management strategies.

Transit and Connectivity Solutions

●Strategies to address security, political, and economic concerns in transit
agreements.
●Role of railway connectivity and infrastructure development.

Chapter 6: Role of West Bengal in India-Bangladesh Relations

Strategic Significance of West Bengal

●Geopolitical importance of West Bengal in the region.
●Historical and current ties with Bangladesh.
Paradiplomacy and Regional Cooperation
●West Bengal's involvement in paradiplomacy initiatives.
●Impact on India-Bangladesh relations and regional stability.

Chapter 7: China's Influence and India's Counter-strategies

China's Growing Presence

●Overview of China's investments and initiatives in Bangladesh.
●Impact on India-Bangladesh relations.

India's Counter-strategies
●India's efforts to counter China's influence.
●Bilateral initiatives and diplomatic strategies.

Chapter 8: Conclusion

Summary of Findings
●Recap of key findings and insights from the research.

Implications and Recommendations

●Implications of the study on regional stability and economic growth.
●Policy recommendations for both India and Bangladesh.

Future Research Directions

●Suggestions for future research topics and areas of exploration
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