DISCRETE PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS I. DISCRETE UNIFORM DISTRIBUTION ~ All values of the random variables have an equal chance of occurring. uGen)=1/n 3 XI HO, XS eK where: u(x:n) = the probability assigned to each one of the values of the random variable n= parameter of the distribution referring to the total number of values which the random variable can assume mean, p= x variance, 07 = Y"(x-)2 a i a Discrete wm Ifthe random variable X astm Distribution the values 7: bilities, then the disercte nniform distribution is giv rp, with equal proba- ty ee aeeceth Example Problems: g 10 tags numbered from the number on the tag that, is drawn. Wh 1. An employee is selected from a staff of 10 to supervise a certain project by box ecting a tag at random from a “ind the formula for the probability ty ion of X representing the probability that the number drawn is less than 4 ©) Formula i WORD) = 55 for x= 42.3,45.6, 189510 b) 3 ; PCx<4) = Tule. to) —* Cumulative brscrete uniform brsie! bution wr + U(1ID) + UC240) £ UC3"10) ee tas 2 | yusing STAT Function P(x<4) > Meon(u) = 2H: al nS 2. Tossing a coin. uce2= 5 4 for ot PCH) = Uli: 2) +L 2 bm salad3. Throwing a die. I. UG) 24 5 for 23 4 HE P(x $3) = Succi) at = ub) + (2:6) + UGE) Yo He +o BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION Charact 1 2. The experiment consists of n repeated trials. Each trial is called a Bernoulli trial For each trial, there are only two mutually exclusive outcomes, success and failure. The event that corresponds to success is chosen arbitrarily. Usually, it is defined in accordance to what is required in the problem. Let p= probability of success where: p+q = 1 = probability of failure The probability of success remains constant from trial to trial. The repeated trials are independent. This ‘means that the outcomes on any given trial does not affect the outcomes of the succeeding trials. Underlying Assumption Sampling is done with replacement. Trials are independent of each other. ‘binomial random variable refers to the number of successes obtained in n trials can result in a success with probability p and a failure with Distribution probability q = 1 —p. Then the probability distribution of the binomial random variable X, the number of successes in n independent trials, is Oz; nor ("rams s 01,2... mean, j= np variance, 0? = npq Note: If lot size is big and sampling is small, binomial distribution can be applied even if it is without replacement.Example Problems: 1. A large multinational corporation has sufficient capital to finance ten investment proposals. The probability of any investment proposal being successful is 80%. What is the probability that the firm will have fe 10 let: X= random variable For success ful investments pz 0-80 X= number of successful investments. g = 0:20 a. 3 successful investment proposal? P(X =3) = b(a; 00-20) = (3) p90? 0-207 Using Table A.1: (p= 0.8) PQ =3) = FG)- FQ) = 0:0009- 0:000] PCxr3) = 786 8 10 = 0-008 _—____——{ P(xs3) = 8 x04 {x= P= 10(0'80) = _g itwodnent et 2 NPA= W(O-MICO-W) = | eT b. Between 4 and 6 suceessful investment proposals inclusive? / same PC 4ex0-80) eu B(x73) = Fic) - FO) = 1+ 0-0909 (x73)_= 0-994d. At most 2 failures? Failure | x= Success PC 8X S10) =P (xz8) ° 5 5 ae : 2 bE ose) 2 | 8 jeeieew sAppgonenant eases be Tel® 9B of failwes ; FART | OR usin 6 Tab) p(xé2) = bes Jo, 0-20) P(x rg) = i ka) = +3222 Sing Table Al rise 0 atte Pra Sori] —. e, Between 4 and 8 failures exclusive? + of Failwes Far lure| Success jot ie a $ (ys 10,020) - dye ee a 15 WAey48)= BMY 7] 3 = DBS; wos # b(6%19,0.20) FHF 102) pC3EKES) © 2%, 0-¥0) 5 GRU! O.p055 + OC008 m 0G 10,0-80) rato xoyrGiion} USINT Table Ff, p= 0-20 = 00008 oo OOS: 4 0-02 G4 = 0.0327. qeye 5 - Using Table At, P=o pCALYER) = FC) - FLW) Fa) + 0,0328- o-d00l | ___ = 0989-0612 PG cyes) = 00327 2. IMesting a certain Kind of truck tire over a rugged terrain, itis found that 25% of the trucks fail to complete the test run without a blowout. Of the next 15 trucks tested, find the probability that Po = 025 Qumoo gy O75 he IS (2) from 3 to 6 have blowouts, PC3EKS6) = ZHO%, 15,6.25) = bl9515,0.25) Fb(HIs,025) ) + b(S316,.025) ¢b(6, 15225) Fy = (Boas? ors® + ('$o2sto-tst 4 (\Syoas?ow” 4 ('$)o2s%o-75" = Q.2a$24 0.92524 o-fest + 0. oqrt % Or TOTS USing able At, p=O-2S 5 PC 3EX~G)= FLE)- FQ) > CAMARO (b) fewer than 4 have blowouts: 0 aan ~ 0.2361 = blo, | i5,p.25) + 6(2) 15,025) 4 b (345,005) = (8) oast-rs £ (i6)02s" 0-6" + (SYoas* ors” + Qyoasors* Using Jable A-1 5 p=025 (xem) = FG) = OWeBy, = D-old4 4 0. oe F OlySTA 0, 2262 POD = mes] IP() more than 5 have blowouts. 4. P(x 75) = 1-25 (x5 [6, 0:25) 0 = = [ b(0515)0.95 + b(U5t5,0.25)4 BO b5,025) + b19%b,0.25) + bar b,oas) + b(Ss 5,025) ] = [+ {o OLZH FO COE 4 oS TF y 0.2252 $0: 2252¥ O16 5S) le aT Seats USING Table Al, pros P(x7s) = 1- Fos) ETE AML, {= 0: 8516 I, MULTINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION ~ OMSL This distribution is an extension of the binomial distribution. This is a general representation of the binomial distribution where there are more than two possible outcomes per trial. Characteristics 1. The experiment consists of n repeated trials. 2. There are k mutually exclusive outeomes on each trial. 3. The probabilities of the outcomes remain constant from trial to trial. Sampling is done with replacement. Mulinomial Ia given Wial can Tesult in the & outcomes By, Ey,+ By with probabil Distribution tics proPavopl then the. probability distribution of the random variables XiXe, « .;Xe,representing the number of occurrences for Ei, E2,.Ee in m indopendont tals Hay 80. 24; DAsPas soos PabH) = Yer Pee, Atta te) ith ' ; Size a, and Spat i Example Problems: 1. The probabilities are 0.4, 0.2, 0.3, and 0.1, respectively, that a delegate to a certain convention arrived by air, bus, automobile, or train. What is the probability that among 9 delegates randomly selected at this, convention, 3 arrived by air, 3 arrived by bus, I arrived by automobile, and 2 arrived by train? Pair > OW Keir = 3 Prus = 0: 2 Phuro = O° 3 Pop Ot DPi = boo q! pte ae on! OH" 02°03 oO ’ £ (8,3, 2; 0-4, 02, 03, ol; 9) = = Tm x? —2. According to a genetics theory, a certain cross of guinea pigs will result in red, black, and white offspring in the ratio 8:4:4. Find the probability that among 8 offspring 5 will be red, 2 black, and 1 white. RoBi w [$C 5,24; 0.50, 028,0-25, 8) eee crete a ae! As 0.50" 0-25" 028! rr Pa = Wlo= 0.25 ie | shot Pu = Hite = 0-25 gal | = 6.0820 veel DPi= 1:00 | eee ‘The surface of a circular dart board has a small center circle called the bull's-eye and 20 pie-shaped regions numbered from 1 to 20. Each of the pie-shaped regions is further divided into three parts such that a person throwing a dart that lands on a specified number scores the value of the number, double the number, or triple the number, depending on which of the three parts the dart falls. If a person hits the bull's-eye with probability 0.01, hits a double with probability 0.10, hits a triple with probability 0.05, and misses the dart board with probability 0.02, what is the probability that 7 throws will result in no bull's-eyes, no triples, a double twice, and a complete miss once? bien Soluti Po sbolpsom yy rae ate ae oo =f (4.2.0,.0,1) 0-82,0+10, 005,001,007) : mh : Ot <6 are Dew owsoatow! BE = Ool Yee =O t Py = Oe Xn el = 00095. ( please chock! ) Pas om Xn} Y Spi = 100 ne 7 ik IV. HYPERGEOMETRIC DISTRIBUTION Characteristi 1. A random sample of size n is selected from N items. 2. TheN items may be subdivided into two groups, k of the items are classified as successes. Thus, N—k of the items are considered failures. The choice of successes is arbitrary. 3. Sampling is done without replacement.Let x = hypergeometric random variable (i mean, pix = {k/N} variance, 6° = n (kN) (1 WN) {(N=n)/ (N= 1} ‘ases where Binomial Can Approximate the Hypergeo) istribution 1, when N is not given (assume N is large) 2. Nis given but itis very large Example Problems: 1. From lot of 10 missiles, 4 are selected at random and fired. If the lot contains 3 defective missiles that will not fire, what is the probability that (@) all 4 will fire? x= © x h( 0; 10,4, 3) = oe 4 (b) se 2 el mt Geet X= O12 C CUMULATIVE ft PPERSECNETRIC IST) 3 h(x; 10,43) = wa 3) + My i. 4, 3) + bC2,10)4)3) i *) ‘® = Ol60T + 0:50 + 03 Te at 2. Anannexation suit is being considered against a county subdivision of 1200 residences by a neighboring, city. If the occupants of half the residences object to being annexed, what is the probability that in a random sample of 10 at least 3 favor the annexation suit? tote: Binomial Approximation to fiyper geonehic bistrebution Since W ih too large (N= 1200) Solution Se + O80 xzay= Fk ZHEX' p 0-60) cae 0: 50 ~ [btovo ose ¥b( (Bop tbGs 10,050) oth" nz 10 |= Co-ogjo + 0.0098 aoa Kz3 meals 0- OS YF Using Table a p0s0 pUL23) = Kx FQ) 4 P(xz3) Wecce 6- 9453,To Multivariate Hypergeometric Distribution A IfN items can be partitioned into the k cells Ai, A2, .... Ak, with ai, a2, ... ak elements, respectively, then the probability distribution of the random variables x1, xz, ... Xi, representing the number of elements selected from Ai, Ao, ..., Ak in a random sample of size n, is ARI 2, N45 Be B25 BAS Ny » (CIE) ("] A foreign student club lists as its members 2 Canadians, 3 Japanese, 5 Italians, and 2 Germans. If a committee of 4 is selected at random, find the probability that Example Problem: L (a) all nationalities are represented; Solution Gp. 2 ! : F(bMW2 35,2, 424) aoe » GE) _ ay=$ ' @) Og = 2 ' 4 N~ 2 Deen 4 + 066 2 Opry (b) all nationalities except the Italians are represented. THEA Cry = ZF (Xes%s,0,%6 5 2,3,5,2) 204) - HOW, EHH , AALLL #) fi) (i) G@0e 0-0121 4 0. 0242 4 9. 0)2) 2. An urn contains 3 green balls, 2 blue balls, and 4 red balls. In a random sample: of 5 balls, find the probability that both blue balls and at least | red ball are selected. Ag+ 3 Meet 2 Vea]: ~ este cnbinfors q ~ 2 ke [2 | 2 | 2 OR 4 ex, 1 {2 ]3 2 9 Geos] n- $ ay2y4 3y2 ait $ CX, 2, Xe, 3.245 9,5) = ui } ap ; 3 Gi) O.0g524 4 O.\Y2Be 4 o-23I7F O2693 ——MI NEGATIVE BINOMIAL Negative Threpeated independent trials ean result in a success with probi panda Binomial failure with probability ¢ =1—p, then the probability distribution of the random Distribution variable X, the number of the trial on which the kth success occurs, is (kp) = (eens x= Keble +2)... Example Problem: 1. The probability that a person, living in a certain city, owns a dog is estimated to be 0.3. Find the probability that the tenth person randomly interviewed in that city is the fifth one to own a dog. = 0+ 30 (owns a di jon = ror 0h eg) Solution Y= oe = b* (10;5, 0.30) kest : (271) 620%. 70° 0-0515 ae 2. Find the probability that a person flipping a coin gets the third head on the seventh flip; pr 0-50 Solution « etn + b¥ (7) 3, 0-50) ae = (3}) 0.50%0-S0! = 0. 469 ‘Vil.. GEOMETRIC DISTRIBUTION Geometric If repeated independent trials can result in a success with probability p and Distribution a failure with probability ¢ = 1 —p, then the probability distribution of the random variable X, the number of the trial on which the first success occurs, is gtap) = pg, Example Problem: 1. The probability that a student pilot passes the written test for a private pilot's license is 0.7. Find the probability that the student will pass the test (a) on the third try; PF O70 q= 0.30 P(e 3) = 9( 2} 070) = 0:10(0.30)~ p (ue3) > 0.063/(b) before the fourth try. X= @ (,2, 3 pcx <4) = 29 (Kio-70) £4 1j05%0) 9 2;0:10) + (330-70) = 40-2) 4 0-063 xed) = 0-973 2. Find the probably that a person Tipping a coin gets the first head on the fourth flip. bE x=) = 94; 0.50) = “0-50 (0-S0)° pCX=4) = 0:50 (0-25) P04) = 0-625, POISSON DISTRIBUTION In the Poisson experiment, the observer is concerned with the actual number of occurrences or successes at random points in time, space or volume or in any other stated unit. Example eriments which May Follow the Poisson Experiment 1. number of arrivals per hour at a counter 2. number of defects per square meter of cloth 3. product demand in a year 4. number of telephone calls per five minutes Letx = Poisson random variable yumber of occurrences per stated unit }. =mean number of occurrences per stated unit P(x, w) =e * we x=0,1,2, x! Hx = 0% Note: x and jix must always be stated in the same units. Poisson imation to the Binomial Distribution The Poisson Distribution can be used as an approximation to the binomial distribution when n > 100 and p<0.01 B(x, n, p) = Pex: H) where: = np (x, n, p) = p(x: mp) (2) Prgms © (np) x!Example Problem: 1. On average a certain intersection results in 3 traffic accidents per month. What is the probability that for any given month at this intersection (a) exactly 5 accidents will occur? Ue 3 accidents / month p(s33)= 272 (a® ger From Table A:2 (by tess uhan Taveidens wi cu? pe ca) BPH = 1C0}3) +9643) #0233) F(2)= 0.4232 2,POG%) = = ie" e say) , ey 0492 40-1493 ' 6.224) ie (c) at ‘accidents will occur? ; X= 2 or more Fron Table 4.2 p(xz2) = I ee | pxz2)= |- FU) 1 O19) eee 2 oy 3c)! pees aoe + SQ] a p parr = 0 owas 4 6 he 2 aromarnect ac wd? fad containing, on average, 5 vegetables. Find the probability that the salad contains more than 5 vegetables From Tale A.2. {(@) ona given day; b(K75)=? ye iie ZO) por s)= Ifa) ars eter Us)? ahCsy a (SF, etsy ; _— ele Cootet 104 0774 0 0343 + 0 fae onrss) (b) on 3 ofthe next 4 days 0440S. Giomme prot pors SS9S Since p = 0-SS9S ; en geouyos PCH 0-5598) = (‘b)o-s545? Co.atos) ne 4 = 03086 (©) for the frst ue in April on April 5 ae GEOMETRIC DisT pe o Ssgs bia g) dss9s) = 0-5596 (6-405) * 3h 5) = 0-021 _