DISCRETE PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS

I. DISCRETE UNIFORM DISTRIBUTION II. BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION

- All values of the random variables have an equal chance of
occurring. Characteristics
1. The experiment consists of n repeated trials. Each trial is called a
u (x:n) = 1 / n ; x = x1, x2, x3 ... xn Bernoulli trial.
where: u(x:n) = the probability assigned to each one of 2. For each trial, there are only two mutually exclusive outcomes,
the values of the success and failure. The event that corresponds to success is
random variable chosen arbitrarily. Usually, it is defined in accordance to what is
n = parameter of the distribution referring required in the problem.
to the total number Let p = probability of success where: p + q = 1
of values which the random variable
can assume q = probability of failure
3. The probability of success remains constant from trial to trial. The
n repeated trials are independent. This means that the outcomes on
mean,  = x
i 1
i variance, 2 = any given trial does not affect the outcomes of the succeeding
trials.
n

 (x -  )2
Underlying Assumption
i

i 1
Sampling is done with replacement. Trials are independent of
each other.
n n
Let x = binomial random variable
= refers to the number of successes obtained in n trials

Example Problems:
1. An employee is selected from a staff of 10 to supervise a certain n
project by selecting a tag at random from a box containing 10 tags f(x) = b (x, n, p) = px q n – x
numbered from 1 to 10. Find the formula for the probability x
distribution of X representing the number on the tag that, is drawn.
What is the probability that the number drawn is less than 4? mean,  = np variance, 2 = npq

2. Tossing a coin and throwing a die. Note: If lot size is big and sampling is small, binomial distribution
can be applied even if it is without replacement.
Example Problems:
1. A large multinational corporation has sufficient capital to finance
ten investment proposals. The probability of any investment
proposal being successful is 80%. What is the probability that the
firm will have
a. 3 successful investment proposal?
b. Between 4 and 6 successful investment proposals inclusive?
c. More than 3 successful investment proposals?
d. At most 2 failures?
e. Between 4 and 8 failures exclusive?
2. In testing a certain kind of truck tire over a rugged terrain, it is
found that 25% of the trucks fail to complete the test run without a
blowout. Of the next 15 trucks tested, find the probability that
(a) from 3 to 6 have blowouts;
(b) fewer than 4 have blowouts:
(c) more than 5 have blowouts.
III. MULTINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION
This distribution is an extension of the binomial distribution.
This is a general representation of the binomial distribution where
there are more than two possible outcomes per trial.
Characteristics
1. The experiment consists of n repeated trials.
2. There are k mutually exclusive outcomes on each trial.
3. The probabilities of the outcomes remain constant from trial to
trial. Sampling is done with replacement.
Example Problems:
1. The surface of a circular dart board has a small center circle
called the bull's-eye and 20 pie-shaped regions numbered from
1 to 20. Each of the pie-shaped regions is further divided into
three parts such that a person throwing a dart that lands on a
specified number scores the value of the number, double the
number, or triple the number, depending on which of the three
parts the dart falls. If a person hits the bull's-eye with
probability 0.01, hits a double with probability 0.10, hits a
triple with probability 0.05, and misses the dart board with
probability 0.02, what is the probability that 7 throws will
result in no bull's-eyes, no triples, a double twice, and a
complete miss once?
2. According to a genetics theory, a certain cross of guinea pigs
will result in red, black, and white offspring in the ratio 8:4:4.
Find the probability that among 8 offspring 5 will be red, 2
black, and 1 white.
3. The probabilities are 0.4, 0.2, 0.3, and 0.1, respectively, that a
delegate to a certain convention arrived by air, bus, automobile,
or train. What is the probability that among 9 delegates
randomly selected at this convention, 3 arrived by air, 3 arrived
by bus, 1 arrived by automobile, and 2 arrived by train?
IV. HYPERGEOMETRIC DISTRIBUTION
Characteristics
1. A random sample of size n is selected from N items.
2. The N items may be subdivided into two groups, k of the items are
classified as successes. Thus, N – k of the items are considered
failures. The choice of successes is arbitrary.
V. MULTIVARIATE HYPERGEOMETRIC
3. Sampling is done without replacement.
DISTRIBUTION
Let x = hypergeometric random variable If N items can be partitioned into the k cells A1 , A2, ..., Ak,
with a1, a2, ... ak elements, respectively, then the probability
k N k distribution of the random variables x1, x2, ... xk, representing the
h (x, N, n, k) =
x nx number of elements selected from A1, A2, ..., Ak in a random sample of
size n, is
N
n
a1 a2 a3
f(x1, x2, ... xk; a1, a2, ... ak; N, n) = ....
mean, x = n { k / N} variance, 2 = n (k / N) (1 – k/N) x1 x2 x3
{(N – n) / (N – 1)}
N
Cases where Binomial Can Approximate the Hypergeometric n
Distribution
1. when N is not given (assume N is large)
2. N is given but it is very large Example Problem:
1. A foreign student club lists as its members 2 Canadians, 3
Example Problems: Japanese, 5 Italians, and 2 Germans. If a committee of 4 is
selected at random, find the probability that
1. From a lot of 10 missiles, 4 are selected at random and fired. If (a) all nationalities are represented;
the lot contains 3 defective missiles that will not fire, what is (b) all nationalities except the Italians are represented.
the probability that
(a) all 4 will fire? 2. An urn contains 3 green balls, 2 blue balls, and 4 red balls. In a
(b) at most 2 will not fire? random sample: of 5 balls, find the probability that both blue
balls and at least 1 red ball are selected.
2. An annexation suit is being considered against a county
subdivision of 1200 residences by a neighboring city. If the
occupants of half the residences object to being annexed, what
is the probability that in a random sample of 10 at least 3 favor
the annexation suit?
VI. NEGATIVE BINOMIAL 2. Find the probability that a person flipping a coin gets the first
head on the fourth flip.

VIII. POISSON DISTRIBUTION

In the Poisson experiment, the observer is concerned with the
actual number of occurrences or successes at random points in time,
space or volume or in any other stated unit.

Example Problem:
1. The probability that a person, living in a certain city, owns a
dog is estimated to be 0.3. Find the probability that the tenth
person randomly interviewed in that city is the fifth one to own
a dog.
2. Find the probability that a person flipping a coin gets the third
head on the seventh flip;
Examples of Experiments which May Follow the Poisson Experiment
1. number of arrivals per hour at a counter
2. number of defects per square meter of cloth
3. product demand in a year
4. number of telephone calls per five minutes
Let x = Poisson random variable
= number of occurrences per stated unit
 = mean number of occurrences per stated unit

P(x, ) = e - x x = 0, 1, 2, ..., 
VII. GEOMETRIC DISTRIBUTION x!

x = 2x

Note: x and x must always be stated in the same units.

Poisson Approximation to the Binomial Distribution

The Poisson Distribution can be used as an approximation to
the binomial distribution when n  100 and p < 0.01.
Example Problem:
b(x, n, p)  p(x: ) where:  = np
1. The probability that a student pilot passes the written test for a
b(x, n, p)  p(x: np)
private pilot's license is 0.7. Find the probability that the
student will pass the test
n
(a) on the third try; px q n-x  e –np (np) x
(b) before the fourth try. x
x!
Example Problem:

1. On average a certain intersection results in 3 traffic accidents

per month. What is the probability that for any given month at
this intersection
(a) exactly 5 accidents will occur?
(b) less than 3 accidents will occur?
(c) at least 2 accidents will occur?

2. A restaurant chef prepares a tossed salad containing, on

average, 5 vegetables. Find the probability that the salad
contains more than 5 vegetables
(a) on a given day;
(b) on 3 of the next 4 days;
(c) for the first time in April on April 5.