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    The document discusses different forecasting methods including qualitative and quantitative methods. It focuses on time series forecasting which assumes past demand will continue. Three time series methods are described: simple moving average, which uses the average demand over a fixed number of prior periods to forecast; naive forecasting, which uses last period's demand as the next period's forecast; and weighted moving average, which assigns weights to prior periods with most recent periods getting higher weights. Examples are provided to illustrate how forecasts are calculated for each method.

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    The document discusses different forecasting methods including qualitative and quantitative methods. It focuses on time series forecasting which assumes past demand will continue. Three time series methods are described: simple moving average, which uses the average demand over a fixed number of prior periods to forecast; naive forecasting, which uses last period's demand as the next period's forecast; and weighted moving average, which assigns weights to prior periods with most recent periods getting higher weights. Examples are provided to illustrate how forecasts are calculated for each method.

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    3 views2 pages

    Opman Recorded Discussion Reviewer

    Uploaded by

    riomaxenne.caliguiran.comm
    The document discusses different forecasting methods including qualitative and quantitative methods. It focuses on time series forecasting which assumes past demand will continue. Three time series methods are described: simple moving average, which uses the average demand over a fixed number of prior periods to forecast; naive forecasting, which uses last period's demand as the next period's forecast; and weighted moving average, which assigns weights to prior periods with most recent periods getting higher weights. Examples are provided to illustrate how forecasts are calculated for each method.

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    © All Rights Reserved
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    of 2

    UNIT 4: OPERATIONS MANAGEMENT

    Simple Moving Average


    - Uses average demand for a fixed
    FORECASTING
    sequence of periods
    Ex: 3 mos / 4 mos / 5 mos
    ★ FORECASTING - Stable demand with no pronounced
    — Predicting the future behavioral
    - Hindi ganun kalaki yung fluctuations
    ● Qualitative Forecast Method - Ex: 100 -> 10 -> 0
    Subjective

    ● Quantitative Forecast Method - based


    on mathematical formulas

    ★ TIME SERIES
    — Assume that what has occurred in the past Moving Average 3
    will continue to occur in the future Forecast/Final answer = 78.3333

    — Relate the forecast to only one factor - TIME

    Includes: (3 methods)
    ● Moving Average

    Naive Forecast
    - Demand in current period is used as
    Moving Average 5
    next period’s forecast
    Forecast/Final answer =85

    Actual Demand Forecast


    Ex: Oct 110
    Nov 98 110
    Dec 98

    RY
    UNIT 4: OPERATIONS MANAGEMENT

    – yung data is derived from 5 month simple


    moving average pic; aug, sept, oct
    — FINAL ANSWER: Forecast in November is
    103.4 orders

    Weighted Moving Average


    - weights are assigned to most recent
    data
    - total of 1.0
    Actual Demand Forecast
    Ex: Sept 80 -> .2
    Oct 110 -> .3
    Dec 102 -> .5

    RY

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