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2013 - Douiri A. Et Al - Prevalence of Posstroke Cognitive Impairment
2013 - Douiri A. Et Al - Prevalence of Posstroke Cognitive Impairment
Background and Purpose—Stroke is a common long-term condition with an increasing incidence as the population ages.
This study evaluates temporal changes in the prevalence of cognitive impairment after first-ever stroke stratified by
sociodemography, vascular risk factors, and stroke subtypes, up to 15 years after stroke.
Methods—Data were collected between 1995 and 2010 (n=4212) from the community-based South London Stroke Register
covering an inner-city multiethnic population of 271 817 inhabitants. Patients were assessed for cognitive function using
Abbreviated Mental Test or Mini-Mental State Examination at the onset, 3 months, and annually thereafter. All estimates
were age adjusted to the European standard.
Results—The overall prevalence of cognitive impairment 3 months after stroke and at annual follow-up remained relatively
unchanged at 22% (24% [95% CI, 21.2–27.8] at 3 months; 22% [17.4–26.8] at 5 years to 21% [3.6–63.8] at 14 years).
In multivariate analyses, the poststroke prevalence ratio of cognitive impairment increased with older age (2% [1–3] for
each year of age), ethnicity (2.2 [1.65–2.89]-fold higher among black group) and socioeconomic status (42% [8–86]
increased among manual workers). A significant, progressive trend of cognitive impairment was observed among patients
with small vessel occlusion and lacunar infarction (average annual percentage change: 10% [7.9–12.8] and 2% [0.3–2.7],
respectively, up to 5 years after stroke).
Conclusions—The prevalence of cognitive impairment after stroke remains persistently high over time, with variations
being predominantly explained by sociodemographic characteristics. Given population growth and ageing
demographics, effective preventive strategies and poststroke surveillance are needed to manage survivors with cognitive
impairment. (Stroke. 2013;44:138-145.)
Key Words: cognitive impairment ■ long-term outcome ■ poststroke ■ prevalence ■ stroke ■ trend
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Received August 8, 2012; final revision received September 21, 2012; accepted September 26, 2012.
From the Division of Health and Social Care, King’s College London, London, United Kingdom; and National Institute for Health Research
Comprehensive Biomedical Research Centre, Guy’s and St Thomas’ NHS Trust and King’s College London, London, United Kingdom.
Correspondence to Abdel Douiri, PhD, Division of Health and Social Care Research, King’s College London, Capital House, 42 Weston St, London SE1
3QD, United Kingdom. E-mail abdel.douiri@kcl.ac.uk
© 2013 American Heart Association, Inc.
Stroke is available at http://stroke.ahajournals.org DOI: 10.1161/STROKEAHA.112.670844
138
Douiri et al Poststroke Cognitive Impairment 139
area was 271 817 individuals, self-reported as 63% white, 28% black January 1, 2000, all assessments were conducted using the MMSE;
(9% black Caribbean, 15% black African, and 4% black other), and after January 1, 2000, the Abbreviated Mental Test was administered.
9% of other ethnic group in the 2001 census.10 Subjects were defined as cognitively impaired according to pre-
defined cutoff points (MMSE, 24 or Abbreviated Mental Test, 8).10
Subjects who could not undergo the cognitive test, because of severe
Case Ascertainment aphasia or dysphasia or dysarthria, deafness, or visual impairment
Standardized criteria were applied to ensure completeness of case as- were excluded from the study. Patients were assessed at the stroke
certainment, including multiple overlapping sources of notification. onset, 3 months, and annually after stroke. All follow-up assessments
All patients with a suspected diagnosis of stroke or transient isch- included in the present study were completed by August 31, 2010.
emic attack documented in different hospital and community-based
information sources were investigated for study eligibility. Patients
admitted to hospitals serving the study area were identified by regular Statistical Analysis
reviews of acute wards admitting stroke patients, weekly checks of The prevalence of cognitive impairment was stratified by sociode-
brain imaging referrals, and monthly reviews of bereavement offi- mography, past medical history of vascular risk factor, and stroke
cer and bed manager records. Additionally, national data on patients subtypes. Prevalence ratios (PRs) between patient groups were used
admitted to any hospital in England and Wales with a diagnosis of for comparison. All estimates were applied to the standard European
stroke were also screened for additional patients. To identify patients population using the direct method with 4 age groups 0 to 64, 65 to
not admitted to hospital, all general practitioners within and on the 74, 75 to 84, and 85+. Ninety-five percent confidence intervals of
borders of the study area were contacted regularly and asked to notify age-standardized rates and ratios were calculated using the percentile
the SLSR of stroke patients. Regular communication with general bootstrap technique with 10 000 replications. Multivariate analyses,
practitioners was achieved by telephone contact and quarterly news- using a European age-standardized Poisson regression model with a
letters. Referral of nonhospitalized stroke patients to a neurovascular robust error variance, were used to assess whether changes in preva-
outpatient clinic (from 2003) or domiciliary visit to patients by the lence ratios at each time point could be explained by differences in
study team was also available to general practitioners. Community sociodemographic, past medical history, case-mix stroke severity, or
therapists were contacted every 3 months. Death certificates were stroke subtype.
checked regularly. Completeness of case ascertainment has been esti- Trends in the prevalence rates of cognitive impairment were analyzed
mated at 88% by a multinomial-logit capture-recapture model using using joinpoint regression. The joinpoint permutation test was used to
the methods described elsewhere.10,11 select the optimal model that best fitted the data and tests of significance
use a Monte Carlo permutation method. The average annual percentage
change was used to quantify the change in prevalence rates over time.
Data Collection Kaplan–Meier estimates were used to model survival and to measure
Special trained study nurses and field workers collected all data pro- the cumulative survival and 95% CI at 1, 5, 10, and 15 years after stroke
spectively. A study clinician verified stroke diagnosis. The following according to the cognitive status at 3 month after stroke. Differences in
sociodemographic characteristics were collected at initial assessment: survival according to cognitive status were compared with the multivari-
self-definition of ethnic origin (census question), stratified into white, ate Cox proportional hazards model. The assumption for proportionality
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black (black Caribbean, black African, and black other), and other of the mortality hazards was assessed by visual inspection of cumula-
ethnic group. Socioeconomic status was categorized as nonmanual, tive hazard logarithm plots. All multivariate models were adjusted for
manual, and economically inactive (retired and no information on sociodemographic, past medical history, disability, stroke severity, and
previous employment), according to the patient’s current or most re- Oxfordshire Community Stroke Project stoke subtype.
cent employment using the UK General Register Office occupational To assess the robustness of the results, we conducted sensitivity
codes. analyses with imputation of missing data as described in our previous
Stroke was defined according to World Health Organization crite- study for stroke outcomes on SLSR (1995–2005).10 Similarly, when
ria. Pathological stroke subtypes were classified using neuroradiol- assessing trends over time of all imputation methods, although over-
ogy or necropsy results into ischemic stroke, primary intracerebral all rates were altered, the trends over time closely followed those in
hemorrhage or subarachnoid hemorrhage. Ischemic strokes were the observed and complete case analysis. The observed data analysis
further investigated according to 2 stroke subtypes: The Oxfordshire was used for the present study. Statistical analyses and graphics were
Community Stroke Project12 classification and the modified Trial of performed using STATA17 and JoinPoint program.18
Org 10172 in Acute Stroke Treatment classification. The Oxfordshire
Community Stroke Project contains 4 subtypes according to clinical
features: lacunar infarct, total anterior circulation infarcts, partial an-
Ethics
terior circulation infarcts, and posterior circulation infarcts. Modified All patients and their relatives gave written informed consent to par-
Trial of Org 10172 in Acute Stroke Treatment denotes 5 pathogenetic ticipate in the study, and over the study period very few patients have
subtypes: large artery atherosclerosis, cardioembolism, small vessel declined to be registered. The design of the study was approved by the
occlusion (SVO), other determined pathogenesis and no pathogenesis ethics committees of Guy’s and St Thomas’ NHS Foundation Trust,
identified. Data with modified Trial of Org 10172 in Acute Stroke King’s College Hospital Foundation Trust, St George’s University
Treatment classification were collected only after the year 1999. Hospital, National Hospital for Nervous Diseases, and Westminster
Past medical history of vascular risk factors for stroke (either self- Hospital.
reported or from medical notes) were collected including smoking,
hypertension, diabetes mellitus, atrial fibrillation, ischemic heart dis- Results
ease (history of angina pectoris or myocardial infarction), and tran- A total of 4212 patients with their first-ever stroke between
sient ischemic attack. Before stroke treatment of these risk factors January 1, 1995 and December 31, 2010 were registered in
were also collected (antihypertensives, anticoagulants, antiplatelets,
the SLSR, of whom 1101 were dead within 3 months, 534
diabetes control treatments, and cholesterol-lowering medications).
Barthel Index13 scores with a cutoff of 15 was used before and were not eligible because of late registration, and 570 subjects
after stroke to identify patients with moderate-to-severe disability were unable to undergo a cognitive assessment because of
and Glasgow Coma Score14 dichotomized to <13 or ≥13 was used to severe verbal, visual, or hearing impairment. Of the 2007
measure stroke severity at onset. Other case-mix indicators used for remaining subjects, a cognitive test was conducted in 1618 at
initial stroke severity included urinary incontinence, aphasia, dyspha-
gia, visual field defects, visuospatial neglect, dysphasia, dysarthria, 3 months and 389 were lost to follow-up by 3 months. Three
hemiparesis, and cerebellar symptoms. months poststroke characteristics of these patients including
Cognitive state was assessed using the MMSE15 or Abbreviated sociodemographic, past medical history, case mix, and stroke
Mental Test16 in the acute phase as well as at follow-ups. Before subtypes are presented in Table.
140 Stroke January 2013
The cognitive impairment rate in stroke survivors was patients who were cognitively impaired in the acute stage
strongly associated with age at all time points and it pro- (up to 7 days after stroke) function was regained by nearly
gressively increased after 5 years of stroke for patients aged a quarter of patients at 3 months (24%; 95% CI, 20.8, 26.6).
65 to 85 years old (Figure 1). Among stroke survivors, the After 3 months, cognitive impairment was significantly
age-standardized prevalence of cognitive impairment ranged higher among the black ethnic group (26%) compared with
from 24% (95% CI, 21.2–27.8) at 3 months, 22% (95% CI, the white ethnic group (17%) and the manual socioeconomic
17.4–26.8) at 5 years, and 18% (95% CI, 8.9–26.6) at 10 years group (24%) compared with the nonmanual (20%) (Figure 2).
to 21% (95% CI, 3.6–63.8) at 14 years after stroke. On aver- Black-to-white and manual-to-nonmanual prevalence ratios
age, the overall prevalence of cognitive impairment 3 months of cognitive impairment were higher up to 7 years after
after stroke and annually between 1995 and 2010 was similar stroke. PR of cognitive impairment among high-risk groups
and remained relatively unchanged at around 22% up to 15 are presented in Figure 3. In a multivariate analysis control-
years after stroke (Figure 1). No significant differences were ling for sociodemography, prestroke risk factors, case mix,
found between males and females, and no significant trends of and stroke subtypes, black-to-white adjusted PR were 2.2,
cognitive impairment rates over the period 1995–2010 were 95% CI, 1.65–2.89 at 3 months, 2.3, 95% CI, 1.64–3.19 at 3
observed (Figures 1 and 2). years, and 1.6, 95% CI, 1.02–2.38 at 7 years; and manual-to-
In analyses adjusted for sociodemography, prestroke risk nonmanual adjusted PR were 1.42, 95% CI, 1.08–1.86 at 3
factors, case mix, and stroke subtypes, the age-standardized months, 1.6, 95% CI, 1.11–2.23 at 3 years, and 1.7, 95% CI,
prevalence ratio after stroke increased on average by 2% for 1.05–2.76 at 7 years.
each year of chronological age (PR=1.02; 95% CI, 0.01–0.03 Cognitive impairment rates were also high in total ante-
at 3 months, PR=1.01; 95% CI, 0.1–0.03 at 3 years, and rior circulation infarct (49%) and large artery atherosclerosis
PR=1.03; 95% CI, 0.01–0.05 at 5 years). (40%) subtypes up to 5 years after stroke (Figure 2). Cognitive
Higher cognitive impairment rates were observed within impairment in lacunar infarct and SVO strokes was increas-
first 7 days, particularly for stroke survivors aged >65. At ingly prevalent during the first 3 to 4 years after stroke and
3 months, cognitive function improved but then remained decreased slightly thereafter (Figure 2). Using joinpoint
stable with little variation up to 15 years (Figure 1). Among regression, the estimated average annual percentage change
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Figure 1. Age-specific and overall age-standardized prevalence of cognitive impairment according to the year of stroke (left) and according
to time after stroke (right) of SLSR (1995–2010) patients, with 95% CIs.
142 Stroke January 2013
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Figure 2. Age-standardized prevalence of cognitive impairment according to time after stroke, with 95% CIs. TACI indicates total ante-
rior circulation infarct; PACI, partial anterior circulation infarct; POCI, posterior circulation infarct; LACI, lacunar infarct; LAA, large artery
atherosclerosis; CE, cardioembolism; SVO, small vessel occlusion; UND, no pathogenesis identified.
of cognitive impairment was even greater for SVO compared Cumulative survival up to 15 years after stroke stratified by
with lacunar infarct up to 5 years after stroke (10% [95% CI, 3 months cognitive status is illustrated in Figure 4. Patients
7.9–12.8] for SVO and 2% [95% CI, 0.3–2.7] for lacunar cognitively impaired at 3 months had the worst survival,
infarct). Similarly, a progressive trend of cognitive impair- with 53% (95% CI, 48.2–56.8), 37% (95% CI, 32.4–40.7),
ment was also observed for patients with no prestroke vascular and 34% (95% CI, 29.6–37.7) surviving up to 5, 10, and 15
risk factor with an average annual percentage change of 6% years, respectively, after stroke. After fitting the Cox propor-
(95% CI, 5.3–7.5) in the first 5 years after stroke. However, tional hazards model adjusted for sociodemographic, previous
a negative trend of cognitive impairment was observed in vascular risk factors, case mix, and stroke subtypes, stroke
patients with prestroke vascular risk factors (average annual survivors with cognitive impairment at 3 months experienced
percentage change of −6% (95% CI, −11.0 to −0.3). a 53% increased risk of death compared with those with no
Douiri et al Poststroke Cognitive Impairment 143
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Figure 3. Age-standardized prevalence ratios of cognitive impairment according to time after stroke, with 95% CIs. TACI indicates total
anterior circulation infarct; PACI, partial anterior circulation infarct; POCI, posterior circulation infarct; LACI, lacunar infarct; LAA, large artery
atherosclerosis; CE, cardioembolism; SVO, small vessel occlusion; UND, no pathogenesis identified.
manner, with up to 15 years of follow-up.8 Furthermore, the patient management. Furthermore, the psychometric screen-
use of these year-on-year prevalence estimates provides more ing tools used in this study may underestimate the impact of
precise estimates of temporal changes of poststroke cognitive cognitive impairments, particularly mild cognitive impair-
impairment based on population observations. ment. It has been shown that MMSE or Abbreviated Mental
The overall prevalence of poststroke cognitive impairment Test are insensitive to mild cognitive impairment and execu-
seemed to be stable after 3 months after stroke and during the tive function.19,24,25 Although these are limitations in detecting
1995–2010 period. A major observation is that there are some mild cases, this study has shown high prevalence of cognitive
differences in the cognitive impairment rates among groups impairments. Similar large long-term studies of poststroke
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when stratified by sociodemography, past medical history of cognitive function using sensitive tools to detect all cases,
vascular risk factors, and stroke subtypes. These differences including mild cognitive impairments, will be of benefit to
in prevalence of cognitive impairment by group and by time reconfirm the burden of this condition.
after stroke bear witness to the heterogeneity of this condition. The loss to follow-up rates in this study, once deaths are
Although age could be linked to accumulated lifetime expo- accounted for, are <20% at each time point except at 3 months.
sures affecting cognitive function and socioeconomic status One might have expected the highest participation rate at 3
could be a proxy for education level, the effect of ethnicity months. However, some of subjects were unable to complete
is largely unexplained. Given population growth and ageing the cognitive assessments because of language difficulties,
demographics, these could prove to be some of the main chal- visual or hearing impairment, and a proportion of patients are
lenges of our time. registered retrospectively for whom a 3-month assessment is
A prevalence of cognitive impairment of almost half the not possible. Owing to late registrations and latter improve-
patients up to 5 years after stroke was found in patients having ment in some patients who were originally severely impaired,
a total anterior circulation infarct stroke. However, a stepwise there were subjects who had a cognitive test done at their
progression of cognitive impairment frequencies was observed annual assessments, but not at 3 months.
among stroke survivors with SVO and lacunar infarct stroke, This loss to follow-up may introduce bias, yet estimates
which may represent progressive vascular dementia associated from analyses of the patients with complete data did not dif-
with stroke.3 Other studies have shown that the progressive fer significantly from those presented here. Loss to follow-up
cognitive decline of these groups could be related to vascular may be an issue in certain sociodemographic groups, although
dementia (where the prevalence of cognitive impairment could we have not been able to identify such groups in this analy-
double every 5 years)22,23 or Alzheimer disease.3 A similar but sis. The healthier participants and those from higher socio-
unexplained progressive pattern was observed among patients economic groups may be more likely to engage in research
with no known prestroke vascular risk factors. follow-up. In other cohort and stroke register studies, loss to
This population-based study has produced estimates of follow-up rates are not often presented. Inner-city populations
cognitive status over time in stroke survivors, but with no are mobile, with large numbers of migrant families. Although
comparison to the nonstroke population. The group-specific we acknowledge this as a potential factor in loss to follow-up,
estimates and temporal trends confirm the dynamic process efforts were made for all patients’ changes of address to be
and heterogeneous nature of poststroke cognitive impairment. recorded from hospital, general practice, or family sources.
Further longitudinal analyses of predictors in various sociode- To conclude, cognitive impairment is one of the indicators
mographic, vascular risk factors, stroke subtype, and case-mix of long-term impact of stroke. The overall prevalence of cogni-
groups are thus needed to develop a useful predictive tool for tive impairment remains persistently high over time in stroke
Douiri et al Poststroke Cognitive Impairment 145
patients after their first stroke. Variations in poststroke cognitive 6. Tatemichi TK, Foulkes MA, Mohr JP, Hewitt JR, Hier DB, Price TR,
et al. Dementia in stroke survivors in the Stroke Data Bank cohort.
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impairment. Given the predicted global population growth and
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ageing demographics, this study shows that effective preventive meta-analysis. Lancet Neurol. 2009;8:1006–1018.
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We wish to thank all the patients and their families and the healthcare 11. Tilling K, Sterne JA, Wolfe CD. Estimation of the incidence of stroke
using a capture-recapture model including covariates. Int J Epidemiol.
professionals involved. Particular thanks to all the fieldworkers and
2001;30:1351–1359; discussion 1359.
the whole team who have collected data since 1995 for the South
12. Bamford J, Sandercock P, Dennis M, Burn J, Warlow C. Classification
London Stroke Register. We are also very thankful for the anonymous
and natural history of clinically identifiable subtypes of cerebral infarc-
reviewers for their helpful comments. tion. Lancet. 1991;337:1521–1526.
13. Wade DT, Collin C. The Barthel ADL Index: a standard measure of phys-
Sources of Funding ical disability? Int Disabil Stud. 1988;10:64–67.
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The study was funded by the Northern & Yorkshire NHS R&D A practical scale. Lancet. 1974;2:81–84.
Programme in Cardiovascular Disease and Stroke, Guy’s and St 15. Folstein MF, Folstein SE, McHugh PR. “Mini-mental state.” A practi-
Thomas’ Hospital Charity, Stanley Thomas Johnson Foundation, cal method for grading the cognitive state of patients for the clinician. J
The Stroke Association, Department of Health HQIP grant, National Psychiatr Res. 1975;12:189–198.
Institute for Health Research Programme Grant (RP-PG-0407-10184). 16. Hodkinson HM. Evaluation of a mental test score for assessment of men-
The authors acknowledge financial support from the National Institute tal impairment in the elderly. Age Ageing. 1972;1:233–238.
for Health Research (NIHR) Biomedical Research Centre based at 17. StataCorp. Stata: Release 11.2. Statistical software. College Station, TX:
Guy’s and St Thomas’ NHS Foundation Trust and King’s College, StataCorp; 2011.
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