Tr2024 Full-Report Final Linked

17TH EDITION
2024
TECH TRENDS
R EPORT
FUTURE TODAY INSTITUTE • 2024 TECH TRENDS REPORT
TABLE OF CONTENTS
003 LETTER FROM FTI’S CEO 456 COMPUTING 974 AUTHORS
004 2024 TECH TREND REPORTS 517 BUILT ENVIRONMENT 975 ABOUT FUTURE TODAY INSTITUTE
005 IMPACTS OF TRENDS ON INDUSTRY 572 NEWS & INFORMATION 976 METHODOLOGY
006 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 615 HEALTH CARE & MEDICINE 977 DISCLAIMER
050 ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE 687 FINANCIAL SERVICES & INSURANCE 978 USING & SHARING THE TREND REPORT
166 WEB3 733 SPORTS
207 METAVERSE 776 SPACE
257 BIOENGINEERING 840 HOSPITALITY
328 ENERGY & CLIMATE 882 SUPPLY CHAIN & LOGISTICS
401 MOBILITY, ROBOTICS & DRONES 919 ENTERTAINMENT
2 © 2024 Future Today Institute. All Rights Reserved.

2024 FUTURE TODAY INSTITUTE • 2024 TECH TRENDS REPORT
THE YEAR AHEAD: TECH SUPERCYCLE
The theme for our 2024 re- Institute’s analysis shows that every technology—AR/ VR/ We’ve visually represented the tech supercycle on the
port is Supercycle. In eco- XR, autonomous vehicles, low Earth orbit satellites, to report’s cover, which is an undulating image reminiscent
nomics, a “supercycle” refers name a few—connects to the supercycle in some way. of a storm radar. Vertical and horizontal lines mark the
to an extended period of edges of each section’s cover. When all 16 section cov-
The ramifications are stark and undeniable. As this tech
booming demand, elevating ers converge, the trends reveal a compounding effect as
supercycle unfurls, there will be victors and vanquished,
the prices of commodities reverberating aftershocks influence every other area of
those who seize the reins of this epochal change, and
and assets to unprecedented heights. It stretches across technology and science, as well as all industries.
those who are swallowed whole. For business leaders,
years, even decades, and is driven by substantial and
investors, and policymakers, understanding this tech It’s the convergence that matters. In isolation, trends of-
sustained structural changes in the economy.
supercycle is paramount. fer limited foresight into the future. Instead, the interplay
We believe we have entered a technology supercycle. of these trends is what reveals long-term change. For
In this 17th edition of FTI’s annual Tech Trends report,
This wave of innovation is so potent and pervasive that that reason, organizations must not only remain vigilant
we’ve connected the supercycle to the nearly 700 trends
it promises to reshape the very fabric of our existence, in monitoring these evolving trends but also in cultivat-
we’ve developed. Our research is presented across 16
from the intricacies of global supply chains to the minu- ing strategic foresight—the ability to anticipate future
technology and industry-specific reports that reveal the
tiae of daily habits, from the corridors of power in global changes and plan for various scenarios.
current state of play and lists of influencers to watch,
politics to the unspoken norms that govern our social
along with detailed examples and recommendations de- Our world is changing at an unprecedented rate, and this
interactions.
signed to help executives and their teams develop their supercycle has only just begun.
Driving this seismic shift are the titans of technology strategic positioning. The trends span evolutionary ad-
and three of their inventions: artificial intelligence, bio- vancements in well-established technologies to ground-
technology, and a burgeoning ecosystem of interconnect- breaking developments at the forefront of technological
ed wearable devices for people, pets, and objects. As they and scientific exploration. You’ll see emerging epicenters Amy Webb
converge, these three macro tech segments will redefine of innovation and risk, along with a preview into their Chief Executive Officer
our relationship with everything, from our pharmacists to transformative effects across various industries. Future Today Institute
our animals, from banks to our own bodies. Future Today

FUTURE TODAY INSTITUTE’S 2024 TECH TREND REPORT

Our 2024 edition includes nearly 700 trends, which are published individually in 16 volumes and as one comprehensive report with all trends included.
Download all sections of Future Today Institute’s 2024 Tech Trends report at http://www.futuretodayinstitute.com/trends.

IMPACT OF TRENDS ON YOUR INDUSTRY
Near-Term Relevance Long-Term Relevance
Computing AR/ VR/ XR Web3

Generative Robots and Climate and
AI Generative AI Bioengineering & Synthetic Metaverse Mobility Quantum
Bio Architecture Infrastructure Drones Green Tech
Media
Agriculture
Automotive
Aviation and Travel
Construction, Engineering
Consumer Packaged Goods
Education
Financial Services
Government and Policy
Health Care Systems and Services
Hospitality
Media (Entertainment)
Media (News)
Pharmaceutical and Medical Products
Public and Social Sectors
Real Estate
Restaurants
Retail
Space and Aerospace Defense
Supply Chain and Logistics
Telecommunications

17TH EDITION • 2024 TECH TRENDS REPORT
EXECUTIVE
SUMMARY
2024 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
2024
TRENDS
Trends are what we can know about today and are based on
data and evidence. This year’s trend report covers hundreds of
technology trends across various industries and categories.

TRENDS
ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE WEB3 M E TAV E R S E & N E W R E A L I T I E S
While the hype continues, now is the time to prepare. Quiet developments and new regulations grow Web3. Developments indicate a possible inflection point.
AI is a transformative, general-purpose technology with While the industry reeled from failures and Apple’s new headset leverages AI to overlay digital onto
the potential to influence entire economies and alter bankruptcies over the last year, developers have reality, representing a pivot from fantasy metaverses
society. From multi-modal AI to self-improving agents continued to develop new capabilities and features, to real-life applications that may signal maturity.
and wearables with on-board assistants, the ecosystem moving ever closer to real-life practical applications Meanwhile, complementary features to enhance virtual
is rapidly changing. While AI advancements promise for Web3. As regulations are on the horizon to be experiences are being developed. Though device costs
to reshape our world, emerging trends highlight implemented in 2024, this could be a year of inflection, are an ongoing barrier, integrating AI and XR creates
unprecedented risks, underscoring the need for bringing Web3 from the experimental and theoretical to fundamental synergies, potentially marking the
preparedness, governance, and alignment. cold hard business cases. watershed moment the industry has been waiting for.
BIOENGINEERING E N E R GY & C L I M AT E M O B I L I T Y, R O B OT S & D R O N E S
Brace for impact in this breakthrough year. Emerging and tested tech comes together for progress. Challenges remain for electrification and autonomy.
Recent breakthroughs have accelerated the As the effects of climate change become more dire, Consumers are adapting to electric and semi-
convergence of biology, information systems, and governments are considering a more exotic set of tech- autonomous vehicles and those that collect increasing
advanced platforms, and attention has been focused nologies to combat the situation. Solar geoengineering, data. At the same time, battery technology is increasing,
on generative AI. Very soon, that focus will shift to ocean chemistry manipulation, and domed cities are enabling vehicles, robots, and drones to perform longer.
generative biology, where AI models will lead to the all concepts that gained significant traction in 2023. The rise of these machines suggests a future where they
creation of novel molecules, drugs, materials, and living Meanwhile, significant gains have been made in en- supplement and replace human tasks, highlighting a
organisms. While biotech promises to reshape our abling infrastructure for renewable energy, focusing on shift towards a more efficient, increasingly monitored
world, it also requires preparedness and governance. smart grids, energy storage, and carbon tracking. work environment.

TRENDS
COMPUTING B U I LT E N V I R O N M E N T N E W S & I N F O R M AT I O N
AI is transforming human-computer interaction. Automation and data collection transform practices. The news ecosystem hits an inflection point.
AI is changing what is possible in form factors, In an industry used to following traditional practices, Emerging technologies like generative AI are shaping
challenging underlying computing architecture. the past years have upended decade-old norms. Such the future of content creation, distribution, and mone-
Researchers are pursuing energy-efficient architectures shifts can provide critical solutions to new questions tization. New applications of AI are reshaping the media
by reverse engineering the complex biological efficiencies and signify a turning point that redefines industry value change and forging new consumer behaviors for
of the human brain. As AI facilitates more intuitive standards and operational efficiency. This pivotal information search and discovery. In the year ahead, the
communication, the technology could blend more moment underscores the need for strategic adaptation, initial frenzy of ChatGPT prompt hacking and product
seamlessly into human experiences, with computing heralding a reinvention phase in response to evolving launches based on large language models will fade, but
centered directly around people rather than devices. demands and technological advancements. the information ecosystem will never be the same.
H E A LT H C A R E & M E D I C I N E F I N A N C I A L S E RV I C E S & I N S U R A N C E SPORTS
The barrier between digital and biological is vanishing. Modernization is slow, but consumers are ready to run. Analytics and customization are transforming sports.
The merging of digital and biological worlds enables a The financial services sector, dominated by legacy Technology is enhancing the capabilities of managers,
whole new range of treatments, the most exciting being giants, is facing a critical juncture where embracing coaches, athletes, and fans. Teams and leagues are
cells within our bodies that can produce medication technology like open banking, digital identity, and seeing progress in scouting, training, performance
in response to external stimuli. Conversely, cyberbio- blockchain is not just advantageous but imperative. analytics, and rehabilitation thanks to tools like mixed
malware creates new, existential threats to our health This industry must shift from reactive to proactive, reality, computer vision, and AI. Smarter stadiums offer
that we are unaware we need to protect ourselves underscoring the importance of anticipation and unique, immersive experiences, driving engagement and
against. Both developments have the potential to upend preparedness in navigating the future of the financial revenue streams that support further improvements in a
the pharmaceutical and healthcare industry completely. and insurance industries. game’s quality and spectator experiences.

TRENDS
S PAC E H O S P I TA L I T Y & R E S TAU R A N T S
Space exploration is entering a new era. Tech-driven efficiency can’t replace personalization.
Defined by old geopolitical rifts and new spacefaring Contactless payments, immersive pre-experiences,
nations, this emerging era goes beyond past dynamics augmentations that recognize a guest’s personalized
to involve a broader constellation of smaller nations needs upon entering the premise, automated back-
and private enterprises, all enabled by the decreasing of-house functions offer opportunities for owners and
cost of space access. With lowered launch costs, zero operators to capitalize on that can provide elevated
gravity could unlock scientific discoveries previously experiences and a reduction in overhead costs—but
impossible. The dream of a multi-planetary humanity human workers might hold these positions, driving an
stirs deep questions about our priorities. ongoing tension between efficiency and a personal touch.
S U P P LY C H A I N & LO G I S T I C S E N T E R TA I N M E N T
Real-time data and instant everything shape new terrain. AI’s impact on live entertainment is just beginning.
Regional instability, materials disruptions, manufac- Taylor Swift’s concert film demonstrated that secondary
turing relocation, and labor tensions create hardship live experiences resonate deeply. Add to that haptics,
for businesses and manufacturers trying to bring their holographic transmission in real-time, and climate
goods to consumers, who are also becoming more de- considerations that have consumers looking for
manding. As businesses strive to meet these demands, local options, and a whole new world of performance
they will be compelled to rethink their strategies, tech- experiences opens up. These developments create
nologies, and workflows, marking a pivotal moment in completely new ways to engage with content and
the report on industry trends. opportunities for new business models.

2024
UNCERTAINTIES
Uncertainties represent what we cannot know—and identifying
them can reduce the risk of blind spots down the road. In this year’s
report, we highlight five top uncertainties that will shape 2024.

UNCERTAINTIES
01 02 03 04 05
How quickly will What global How will countries How will humans In the context
AI revolutionize challenges will and businesses prioritize their of increasing
business, and in bioengineering be commit to work environments protectionism
what ways? able to address? decarbonization? in the future, and geopolitical
and what will tensions, what
these preferred is the future of
workplaces look the global chip
like? manufacturing
industry?
JUMP TO UNCERTANTITY 1 JUMP TO UNCERTANTITY 2 JUMP TO UNCERTANTITY 3 JUMP TO UNCERTANTITY 4 JUMP TO UNCERTANTITY 5

01
How quickly will AI revolutionize
business, and in what ways?

UNCERTAINTIES
How quickly will AI revolutionize business,

and in what ways?
Stratification Scales
Stratification by Industry AI Scales Up for Consumers
by Function or Task
GET THE DETAILS GET THE DETAILS GET THE DETAILS
A Revolutionary
Efficiency Optimization Bolstered Productivity Cautious Scaling in Agile Scaling in Less- AI Serves as a
Consumer-Facing
in the Back Office and Performance Complex Industries Regulated Industries Creative Playground
Assistant

2024 1. HOW QUICKLY WILL AI REVOLUTIONIZE BUSINESS, AND IN WHAT WAYS? EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
UNCERTAINTIES
Stratification Scales by Function or Task

AI scales along two distinct trajectories: by function or by task. Functional scaling involves
embedding AI into key business operations, like accounting or IT, to enhance productivity.
Conversely, task-based scaling increases efficiency for routine activities like email, leading to
workforce streamlining. Both offer unique advantages for leaders, who must choose between
broad operational transformation or targeted task refinement.
SCENARIO 1 SCENARIO 2
Efficiency Optimization in the Back Office Bolstered Productivity and Performance

AI emerges as a linchpin, enhancing efficiency for back-office operations like Integrating AI into the business ecosystem results in meaningful workforce
calendaring and leading to a cascade of broader organizational and cultural reduction, as the tech can tackle work that previously required multiple humans.
shifts. But there are human capital implications: As AI takes root, the workforce
Management adapts to overseeing hybrid teams of humans and AI, fostering
gradually contracts.
collaboration and redefining performance metrics. Money previously allocated
With efficiency gains, companies reconsider budgets, diverting funds from labor for salaries and benefits is redirected toward technology investment, research,
to tech. This shift fosters a culture of innovation, as employees are reassigned to and development, potentially driving further innovation. Ultimately, AI leads
more strategic, creative, or complex tasks that AI can’t easily replicate. But it also to more informed decision-making, risk assessment, and predictive analytics,
will require companies to reevaluate talent strategies, prioritize adaptability and and businesses tailor their AI solutions to specific departmental needs to gain
technical proficiency, and expand HR departments to include upskilling programs competitive advantages.
and change management.
NEXT SCENARIO | THREATS & OPPORTUNITITES | STRATEGIC QUESTIONS | RETURN TO UNCERTAINTIES

UNCERTAINTIES
Stratification by Industry
As AI matures, its scalability pivots around industry-specific applications. The speed with
which AI scales across certain industries is a function of technological receptivity and reflects
the regulatory landscapes that govern them. Business leaders must carefully measure
tradeoffs between these two challenges, calibrating their AI integration strategies to align
with industry characteristics and regulatory confines.
Cautious Scaling in Complex Industries Agile Scaling in Less-Regulated Industries

Sectors like financial services and health care stand to gain improved productivity Industries less encumbered by compliance hurdles—such as consumer
and efficiencies as AI leaders by processing vast data streams and achieving packaged goods and retail—are quick to capitalize on AI’s potential. It
decision-making acumen beyond human speed. However, lagging regulatory becomes a dynamic catalyst for innovation, enabling rapid ideation and
updates temper this progress. deployment of new products and services.
Slower to replace the nuanced judgment of human experts with AI systems, AI’s ability to analyze vast amounts of data in real-time is leveraged to
businesses take a more deliberate scaling strategy. They invest in AI R&D to personalize customer experiences, from tailored product recommendations
create more sophisticated models built on equitable data training. Their cautious to enhanced service interactions. It also creates supply chain resilience by
approach extends to data privacy and security, as they implement strong predicting demand, optimizing inventory, and identifying potential disruptions.
measures to safeguard sensitive information.

UNCERTAINTIES
AI Scales Up for Consumers

Two primary use cases of AI alter everyday life. The first is through creative and experimental applications
that introduce a sense of play and innovation to regular activities. They are reshaping entertainment, social
media, and online engagement by providing novel, personalized experiences. The second sees AI as a
practical assistant, seamlessly integrating into daily routines to manage tasks, offer recommendations,
and streamline decisions. This form of AI is becoming a dependable extension of personal efficiency. These
manifestations of AI highlight its versatility and growing significance in shaping consumer behavior.
AI Serves as a Creative Playground A Revolutionary Consumer-Facing Assistant

For consumers, AI is more about novelty and entertainment than utility. Students The AI assistant transcends its fledgling origins to become an essential element
integrate generative AI into their projects, pushing the boundaries of creativity and of daily life. It simplifies complex tasks and executes functions with a level of
academic exploration. Social media enthusiasts use it to embellish their online access and autonomy that mirrors human assistance. Consumers find tangible
personas and captivate their followers. ease in their routines as AI assistants manage calendars, make informed
purchases, and even anticipate needs before they arise.
Consumers now expect more interactive and personalized digital experiences
across all platforms, influencing a shift in how products and services are The downside: The role of AI in decision-making processes raises ethical
designed and marketed. At the same time, the digital divide is more pronounced questions, especially if these systems begin to influence areas like personal
as a broader segment of the population becomes adept at navigating and relationships, employment opportunities, and even legal decisions.
manipulating digital environments and tools.
THREATS & OPPORTUNITITES | STRATEGIC QUESTIONS | RETURN TO UNCERTAINTIES

OPPORTUNITIES & THREATS
THREATS OPPORTUNITIES
1 Workforce disruption 1 Increased productivity and efficiency

As AI takes on more responsibilities, companies must AI implementation in back-office and core business
manage job losses and reskill employees to avoid functions can result in exponential productivity gains,
negative backlash. superior efficiency, and cost reductions.
2 Regulatory non-compliance 2 Enhanced data-driven decision-making

Strict governance in regulated sectors can curb AI AI will provide business leaders with previously
innovation/adoption if transparency, accountability, inaccessible insights, predictive analytics, and risk
and ethical standards are not upheld. assessments to inform strategy and planning.
3 Data privacy issues 3 Competitive differentiation

As AI leverages increasing amounts of consumer Customized enterprise AI solutions present opportunities
data, rising public concern around data privacy may to develop proprietary platforms, hyper-specialized
warrant increased regulation and standards around tools, and new business models that distinguish an
data use. organization.
STRATEGIC QUESTIONS | RETURN TO UNCERTAINTIES

STRATEGIC QUESTIONS
1 2 3 4 5
Are you mainly focused Do you have the data How might your offerings How might emerging How will third-party
on leveraging AI in governance foundations need to shift as consumer AI systems create a AI assistants change
your organization for and AI accountability and business buyer compounding effect for consumer expectations
functional efficiency, measures to comply with expectations evolve? your business? Is there of your products and
task-based productivity existing and emerging a part of your business services?
gains, or both? What are regulations? that could be vastly
you doing to build those improved or optimized if a
strategies? component or compound
could be altered slightly?
RETURN TO UNCERTAINTIES
02
What global challenges will
bioengineering be able to address?

UNCERTAINTIES
What global challenges will bioengineering

be able to address?
Better Living Infrastructure Resilience Securing Agricultural Infrastructure
The Never Retiring Widening Self-Sustaining Community-Focused

Subscribe or Die Highways World War Food
Workforce Societal Gap Food
(The End to Infrastructure Bills?)

2024 2. WHAT GLOBAL CHALLENGES WILL BIOENGINEERING BE ABLE TO ADDRESS? EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
UNCERTAINTIES
Better Living
Bioengineering initiatives and research present a change in our approach to health care and even aging.
Researchers use generative biology to create new therapeutic compounds and test the viability of gene
editing. That work results in better drugs, personalized treatments, engineered tissues, and alternatives to
one-size-fits-some medicine. Experiments are underway to alter genetics to cure ailments and diseases, with
success already being achieved in hearing loss reversal and sickle cell treatment. Scientists leverage animal
alternatives as they work to enhance limb, organ, and joint regenerative capabilities.
Subscribe or Die The Never Retiring Workforce
Health care shifts from reactively treating sickness and diseases to proactively Economic conditions have not drastically improved for Millennials and Gen Z, who
addressing potential health issues before they emerge. With the goal of making cannot afford to retire. Thanks to preventative medicine, genetic surgeries, and
up for any future lost “reactive” revenues, the largest health care systems use new therapies, the life expectancy of Americans spiked from 77 to 115 years. Many
M&A to join the bioengineering landscape as facility providers and treatment older individuals feel physically and mentally capable of working indefinitely,
hubs. People subscribe to bio-based services, which they must use to continue while younger generations face a bottleneck in career advancement.
getting access to health-promoting and anti-aging solutions. Big Bio creates the
The implications are profound, and not just in the US. HR professionals and labor
ultimate subscription package: Continue paying, or face an untimely alternative.
economists prompt a reevaluation of career trajectories, retirement planning, and
intergenerational equity, hoping to stave off a collapse.

UNCERTAINTIES
Infrastructure Resilience
Our infrastructure is no longer crumbling and fragile. By creating new compounds and modifying
existing ones, bioengineering significantly enhances construction materials’ strength, durability,
and flexibility while reducing reliance on harmful chemicals and petroleum-based compounds.
Compounds that self-heal extend the lifespan of infrastructure by autonomously repairing damage.
New materials, designed with generative biology, result in “living” buildings engineered with
sustainable, organic materials.
Widening Societal Gap Self-Sustaining Highways (The End to Infrastructure Bills?)

As bioengineering technologies mature and scale, the demand for traditional Bioengineering introduces advanced materials for highways and bridges that
construction and maintenance services wanes. Construction firms that don’t incorporate microorganisms, which produce substances to naturally repair
adapt— struggle, and those specializing in bioengineered solutions—thrive. damages, thereby enhancing durability and slashing maintenance expenses.
These innovations adapt to fluctuating environmental conditions, offering better
While new homes are increasingly constructed with these innovative materials,
resistance against extreme weather patterns and contributing to infrastructure
integrating them into existing homes proves financially prohibitive for many
longevity. Some highway infrastructures mend themselves and reduce CO2 levels,
homeowners. A two-tier infrastructure landscape emerges, where newer
while bridges utilize embedded sensors for ongoing health monitoring, ensuring
developments boast remarkable resilience and sustainability features, and older
safety and operational efficiency.
constructions lag.

UNCERTAINTIES
Securing Agricultural Infrastructure

Bioengineering addresses the global food security challenge by revolutionizing how and where we
grow our food. Improved crop yields enable food cultivation in diverse and previously inhospitable
locations. Bioengineering also offers solutions to the most pressing agricultural challenges, such as
developing famine and disease-resistant crops, engineering drought-tolerant plants that thrive on
less water, and reducing reliance on chemical fertilizers and pesticides by creating all-natural pest
resistances. Crops now withstand shifting weather patterns, while soil health is improved.
World War Food Community-Focused Food

Wealthier nations, foreseeing the vulnerabilities of relying on traditional Genetic modification and environmental adaptation have revolutionized
agriculture, heavily invested in synthetic biology and food synthesis technologies to agriculture. Crops flourish in deserts and on urban rooftops, making food
produce engineered foods customized for nutritional content. production sustainable and accessible. The urban heat island effect is reduced,
and fresh produce and cultured proteins are available at local shops. Suburban and
This shift has created a new divide in the global economy, with disparities in
rural communities have embraced cooperative farms growing bioengineered crops
food production capabilities. Agrarian countries, dependent on their exports of
resistant to various adversities, enhancing local biodiversity and fostering shared
traditional crops, face widespread unemployment and social unrest. They retaliate
responsibilities and benefits. Commercial farming has shifted toward sustainability,
through cyber sabotage and proxy conflicts, attempting to disrupt their wealthier
with genetically engineered crops achieving faster growth and higher yields,
counterparts’ engineered food supply chains.
leading to reduced land use, shorter supply chains, and less reliance on imports.
Food is grown closer to where it is consumed, leveraging advanced technologies to
create a resilient, efficient, and eco-friendly food system.

1 Genetic Privacy and Discrimination Risks 1 Adapting to the Never-Retiring Workforce

A rise in bioengineering raises concerns over genetic The increase in life expectancy will drive shifting career
data privacy. There’s a risk that insurers, employers, or dynamics, allowing businesses to develop new career
third parties could misuse individuals’ genetic data, paths, flexible working conditions, and retirement plans
leading to new forms of discrimination. that accommodate an aging but active workforce.
2 Automation In Employment 2 Bridging the Gap in Health Access

Integrating bioengineering in various industries Advancements in bioengineering offer unprecedented
may lead to significant job displacement. Traditional opportunities to address health inequities globally through
agriculture, construction, and health care roles could be more cost-effective production of pharmaceuticals.
transformed or made obsolete by automated processes.
3 Improved Food Access
3 Geopolitical Conflict Synthetic biology revolutionizes global food strategy by
The strategic advantage gained through bioengineering boosting crop resilience, enhancing nutrition, producing
capabilities could become a source of global tension. sustainable ingredients, developing alternative proteins,
Leading nations may exert influence over others, and reducing waste, leading to more resilient food systems.
leading to new forms of dependency and inequalities.

STRATEGIC QUESTIONS
1 2 3 4 5
How can synthetic What impacts do you How will your customers What skills and talent How do you plan to
biology be used to solve anticipate synthetic and the market respond do you need to leverage manage intellectual
previously unsolvable biology will have on to products or services synthetic biology in your property rights and
problems in your product your supply chain and developed through business effectively, protect innovations in the
R&D pipeline? procurement strategies? synthetic biology? and how do you plan to field of synthetic biology,
acquire them? and what challenges do
you foresee in this area?
03
How will countries and businesses
commit to decarbonization?

UNCERTAINTIES
How will countries and businesses

commit to decarbonization?
An Expanded Environmental Inclusive, Multifaceted

Blue Economy
Support Ecosystem Environmental Protection
Exploitation and Over-regulation

Sustainable Growth Environmental Holistic Benefits
Environmental Grid Optimization and Complexity
and Innovation Efforts Stagnate Are Realized
Degradation Dominate

2024 3. HOW WILL COUNTRIES AND BUSINESSES COMMIT TO DECARBONIZATION? EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
UNCERTAINTIES
Blue Economy
The blue economy, which promotes the sustainable use of ocean resources, plays an increasingly
important role in countries’ sustainability efforts by harnessing the ocean’s economic growth while
ensuring marine environmental health. This approach includes sustainable fisheries, renewable
marine energy, and eco-friendly tourism, all aimed at preserving ocean ecosystems and promoting
economic resilience.
Sustainable Growth and Innovation Exploitation and Environmental Degradation

Marine technology breakthroughs vastly improve sustainable fishing, ocean-based Inadequate global governance fuels overfishing, unregulated marine development,
renewable energy efficiency (like wave and tidal power), and ocean cleanup and pollution, drastically diminishing ocean resources.
efforts, significantly reducing marine pollution.
Wealthier nations disproportionately deplete these resources, leaving smaller
Concurrently, robust international agreements are instrumental in the effective coastal communities to bear the brunt of environmental harm and resource scarcity.
management of marine resources. These agreements introduce strict regulations
Ignoring sustainable methods leads to a sharp decline in biodiversity, undermining
to prevent overfishing and protect marine habitats from destruction. Because of
the blue economy’s growth, affecting worldwide food security, and disrupting
these combined efforts, the health of the marine ecosystem improves.
climate balance. These effects are most acutely felt by small coastal communities
reliant on the ocean for survival.

UNCERTAINTIES
An Expanded Environmental Support Ecosystem

Countries expand their environmental efforts beyond a narrow focus on renewable energy to include
broader ecosystem support. This involves enhancing infrastructure such as power grids and EV
charging networks, implementing environmental, social, and governance (ESG) policies, and bringing
greater transparency to carbon trading schemes. The aim is to take a more holistic approach to
sustaining healthy ecosystems while still continuing the transition toward clean energy.
Grid Optimization Environmental Efforts Stagnate

Energy grids have been upgraded through deployment of advanced energy Persistent power outages and insufficient electric vehicle infrastructure disrupt
storage systems, such as large-scale batteries and pumped hydro facilities. We economic activities, causing a dip in productivity and risking job losses. Since
now store excess renewable energy. There is widespread adoption of highly ESG regulations vary across regions, compliance is difficult. This leads to higher
efficient electric heat pumps for heating and cooling to reduce energy use and operational expenses and hampered economic expansion. A lack of transparency
curb emissions. New ESG policies include transparency for CO2 trading schemes. in carbon trading markets breeds investor skepticism, obstructing the development
of green finance.
Businesses supporting optimized grid initiatives benefit from reduced energy
costs thanks to improved stability and more energy-efficient technologies. These
businesses also tap into emerging renewable energy markets, creating new
revenue streams. Those leading the transition to sustainable power grids have a
first-mover advantage.

UNCERTAINTIES
Inclusive, Multifaceted Environmental Protection

The concept of environmental protection has evolved to become more inclusive. Countries and
businesses now recognize that it encompasses efforts to mitigate climate change and initiatives for
biodiversity conservation and the promotion of humane working conditions. This broader approach
integrates ecological sustainability with social responsibility, reflecting a more holistic understanding
of our interconnected world.
Holistic Benefits Are Realized Over-regulation and Complexity Dominate

Nations prioritize the conservation of diverse ecosystems, leading to increased Expanded environmental protection efforts bring complex and often competing
ecotourism, research opportunities, and sustainable resource management. regulations to the forefront, and governments have to wrestle with noncompliance
Responding to labor group advocacy, businesses adopt fair labor practices, and enforcement challenges. Businesses face exorbitant costs navigating this
including raising wages and prioritizing safer work environments. convoluted regulatory landscape, stifling innovation and hindering economic
growth. The high cost of transitioning to environmentally friendly legislation poses
Companies embrace comprehensive sustainability strategies that integrate
barriers to entry for smaller businesses, reducing market competition.
ecological, social, and economic considerations, leading to significant reductions
in resource waste and improved financial resilience. These strategies are effective In striving to meet a multitude of environmental goals, overemphasis on specific
because they strike a balance between environmental consciousness and business areas like biodiversity conservation diverts finite resources from urgent climate
viability, aligning with consumer preferences for environmentally responsible mitigation needs, impeding overall sustainability progress.
goods and services.

1 Compliance Complexity 1 Short-Term Gains

Diverse and changing ESG regulations across regions Businesses prioritizing short-term economic gains
can complicate compliance efforts, increasing over sustainability may benefit from lower compliance
operational costs and reducing competitiveness. and operational costs in the short term but could find
themselves ill-prepared over the mid-term as new
technologies and regulations begin to scale.
2 Technological Obsolescence
Rapid advancements in energy technologies could
render existing products and services obsolete, 2 New Revenue Streams
posing a threat to businesses unable to innovate Companies in the energy storage, electric heat pumps,
quickly. and renewable energy sectors could tap into new revenue
streams as their technologies and services become
increasingly in demand.
3 Implementation Costs
The costs associated with adopting comprehensive
sustainability strategies could be significant, 3 Comprehensive Sustainability
particularly for small and medium-sized enterprises Companies that adopt and integrate broad sustainability
(SMEs). strategies can appeal to a wider customer base, reduce
waste, and improve operational efficiencies.

STRATEGIC QUESTIONS
1 2 3 4 5
How is your business What strategies are How is your business How is your business What measures are in
leveraging technological in place to adapt preparing to align with diversifying its operations place to navigate the
advancements in to and comply with new ESG policies, and or supply chains to ensure complexity of expanded
marine technology to international marine what investments are resilience and sustained environmental regulations
promote sustainable resource management being made to upgrade or growth? without stifling
growth within the blue agreements, such as support the infrastructure innovation or economic
economy? in your supply chain for renewable energy and performance?
practices? grid optimization?
04
How will humans prioritize their
work environments in the future,
and what will these preferred
workplaces look like?

UNCERTAINTIES
How will humans prioritize their work

environments in the future, and what will these
preferred workplaces look like?
Enabled by Smart
Work Is Task-Dependent Purpose-Driven Locations
Workspaces and AI Agents
Decentralized Work Reskilling for Smart Workspaces AI Agents Manage Personalized Division in
Communities Task-Based Work Empower Talent Logistics Coworking Ecosystems Urban Areas

2024 4. HOW WILL HUMANS PRIORITIZE THEIR WORK ENVIRONMENTS IN THE FUTURE, AND WHAT WILL THESE PREFERRED WORKPLACES LOOK LIKE? EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
UNCERTAINTIES
Work Is Task-Dependent
Companies emphasize skill-focused tasks over traditional role-based assignments. This approach opens up
opportunities for both fixed-location and remote workers, breaking down previous barriers in talent pools.
Consequently, employees have the flexibility to work from home or community-based locations.
Decentralized Work Communities Reskilling for Task-Based Work
The social elements and team structures of traditional offices diminish in Ensuring the right skills for each job is a priority. Sensitive to the high search
importance. Without defined roles anchoring them together, employees perform costs for new talent, companies are interested in retaining and training existing
their individual tasks remotely. employees to meet evolving task needs. Traditional offices are nimble learning
centers focused on immersive training for current staff.
Workers split time between truly remote work and convening in smaller satellite
workspaces when they want a sense of community. Employees enjoy the This cultivated talent pipeline of cross-functional employees, versed in specific
flexibility to simultaneously hold multiple “careers,” contributing varied tasks to an on-demand abilities, replaces siloed departments. Companies equip their
ecosystem of employers rather than being siloed at any single organization. workforce with precise capabilities rather than seeking elusive candidate fits.

UNCERTAINTIES
Enabled by Smart Workspaces and AI Agents

Workflows are enabled by fluid, personalized environments that empower productivity with human
and artificial partners working in concert. People are free to perform, augmented by supportive
spaces that travel with them.
Smart Workspaces Empower Talent AI Agents Manage Logistics
Offices function as intelligent computing zones. Spatial computing and natural Specialized AI agents handle distinct tasks. A product manager AI agent could
language processing enable embodied interaction. Employees’ tasks and projects aid market analysis, prioritize features, and develop business cases. Meanwhile, a
surface on walls and tables as they enter a room. Workers can literally get a grasp developer agent would focus on automating code generation and detecting bugs.
on their work by manipulating 3D projections by hand. Voice commands replace
Each person’s AI agent coordinates to remove logistical burdens. Christina’s
typing for nimble modification.
assistant tracks that she prefers morning meetings. Jeff’s assistant knows he favors
Employees gain sensory proximity to their work. Previously abstract digital files early afternoons. By sharing insights into their humans’ constraints, the assistants
are now tangible in augmented environments that both feel familiar and unleash identify 11 a.m. as the optimal meeting time. Because the assistants dynamically
workspace innovation. adjust activities based on their human’s context, they enable new flexibility: Workers
can perform efficiently wherever they happen to be.

UNCERTAINTIES
Purpose-Driven Locations
Workers want transparency and a seat at the table to make company decisions. Labor unions
and employees continue to push for greater autonomy and new benefit packages and locations.
Companies join together to offer a complex of potential work environments, creating stability in some
urban regions.
Personalized Coworking Ecosystems Division in Urban Areas
Employees have access to coworking ecosystems that cater to their lifestyles. The urban centers of cities are becoming patchworks of utilitarian spaces that lack
For health buffs, wellness hubs provide gyms, cold plunges, and saunas. Parents the vibrancy and interconnectedness of traditional urban life. As offices emptied
join family-friendly sites with childcare and nursing spaces. Rather than isolated out due to employee cynicism, businesses turned their properties into lab spaces,
offices, companies cluster in amenity-rich locales to give workers choices. vertical farms, and storage. Socio-economic divides are deep, as these spaces do
not address communal needs, only corporate interests. Once vibrant downtowns
Workers evaluate these full experience packages when considering job
focus on efficiency and production versus community connection. Manufacturers
opportunities. Companies differentiate with tailored sites while still coming
are using the empty spaces to fill warehouses and production sites closer to their
together in broader mixed-use developments. Competing businesses may not
consumers. Malls and other shopping facilities that moved out of downtown now
share ecosystems, but complementary industries do, recognizing the potential for
compete with these manufacturing centers.
expanded talent recruitment and retention.

1 Ethical Challenges with AI Integration 1 Talent Ecosystem Development

Integrating AI agents into the workforce introduces Companies and industries can develop talent ecosystems
cultural and ethical challenges, including dependency that foster cross-pollination of skills and ideas by creating
on technology, potential job displacement concerns, and networks of complementary businesses and coworking
ethical considerations around AI decision-making. spaces that enhance talent satisfaction and retention.
2 Overdependence on Technology 2 Urban Redevelopment and Repurposing

Heavy reliance on smart workspaces and AI for operational Municipalities and businesses will need advice on
efficiency could lead to overdependence on technology, repurposing urban spaces that have lost their traditional
making companies vulnerable to tech failures, outages, or vibrancy due to shifts in work patterns.
obsolescence.
3 Purpose-Driven Workspace Solutions
3 Fraud Risk Companies may create purpose-driven locations and
As decentralized work scales alongside increasingly co-working ecosystems that align with their employees’
sophisticated AI, various forms of deepfakes could values and lifestyle preferences. This could involve strategic
present a security risk to remote working environments, planning for the use of corporate real estate to support
necessitating businesses to improve their cybersecurity community engagement, wellness, and collaboration.
preparedness.

STRATEGIC QUESTIONS
1 2 3 4 5
How can we develop a In what ways can What do we need to How can we leverage How can we use new and
continuous learning and we leverage smart reevaluate or adjust data and analytics emerging technologies
development ecosystem workspaces and AI in order to remain to improve remote to foster innovation
to ensure our workforce agents to enhance competitive in attracting work productivity and and creativity in a
remains adaptable and productivity without and retaining top talent employee engagement predominantly remote or
skilled for future tasks? compromising security, as the workspace while respecting privacy hybrid workforce?
privacy, and employee evolves? and autonomy?
well-being?
05
In the context of increasing
protectionism and
geopolitical tensions, what is
the future of the global chip
manufacturing industry?

UNCERTAINTIES
In the context of increasing protectionism and

geopolitical tensions, what is the future of the
global chip manufacturing industry?
Chip Imports and Exports Are Protectionist Policies The Cost of Data
Increasingly Restricted Result in a Skills Gap Centers Rise
In-House Production Open Borders for Tech Companies as

The US Dominates China Rallies The End User Pays
and Training Ramp Up Chip Industry Growth New Energy Providers

2024 5. IN THE CONTEXT OF INCREASING PROTECTIONISM AND GEOPOLITICAL TENSIONS, WHAT IS THE FUTURE OF THE GLOBAL CHIP MANUFACTURING INDUSTRY? EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
UNCERTAINTIES
Chip Imports and Exports Are Increasingly Restricted

The industry continues its pivot toward strategic autonomy. Defensively, the US is onshoring
chip production to prevent supply chain disruptions like those during the Covid semiconductor
shortage. Offensively, the US is strategically preventing exports to get a leg up in the AI race
against China. Meanwhile, independent companies, like OpenAI, want to create new types of
chips that won’t run afoul of government regulations.
The US Dominates China Rallies

The US tightens enforcement of chip exports to prevent adversaries from US-led export controls do not prevent China and other adversaries from acquiring
attaining US chips and manufacturing equipment. US allies are required to do powerful chips from companies like Nvidia. Black markets emerge for such chips,
the same. Technologies like geotracking prevent leaks in export controls, thereby and IP espionage efforts ramp up. With these powerful chips, China’s AI rivals US
more effectively curbing US technologies from getting to China and Russia. This AI companies in capabilities. There is a bifurcation of “Eastern AI” and “Western AI.”
challenges those countries’ reliance on foreign chips, pressuring their big tech to
China also continues to dominate global legacy chip production. Legacy chips
innovate with less sophisticated resources.
underpin everything from microwaves to military weapons systems. China boxes
Since China is a major player in the consumer electronics market, the restrictions out foreign competitors through dumping, rendering the US dependent on China,
lead to higher prices and limited availability of various consumer goods worldwide. at least for legacy chips.

UNCERTAINTIES
Protectionist Policies Result in a Skills Gap

The expertise required for chip design and production, previously outsourced affordably, is now
lacking domestically. As a result, manufacturing chips domestically has become a costly endeavor.
This has sparked intense competition among companies to attract and acquire talent specialized
in chip design and manufacturing.
In-House Production and Training Ramp Up Open Borders for Chip Industry Growth
Semiconductor companies are bringing chip production in-house and cultivating Progress in opening new fabrication plants, funded by the US Chips Act, has
essential skills internally. They also in-source skills training by reaching out to high been slower than anticipated. The fabs’ hosts, including cities in Texas, Ohio, and
school students, offering a direct path into the burgeoning US chip industry. This Florida, worry about becoming modern equivalents of Detroit—where initial high
new model positions the semiconductor sector as a realm of new blue-collar investments won’t yield long-term benefits.
workers. By providing in-house training and certification, these companies offer
States traditionally resistant to open immigration policies are shifting their stance,
young talent a debt-free alternative to college education, enabling them to start
and the US is responding with expedited visas for skilled workers, particularly
earning immediately while learning specialized skills.
from Taiwan, leading to a notable brain drain in the island nation and increased
tensions with China.

UNCERTAINTIES
The Cost of Data Centers Rise

As AI-driven workloads intensify, the operational costs of data centers are escalating. The
increased demand for processing power and energy to support complex AI tasks significantly
drives up the expenses associated with maintaining and running these facilities.
Tech Companies as New Energy Providers The End User Pays

Tech companies are venturing into producing alternative, cost-effective energy Data center efficiency advancements have reached a plateau, compelling the
sources like small modular reactors and geothermal power. This move is not just industry to focus on expansion to meet increasing workload demands.
about affordability; it represents a leap in overcoming long-standing negative
Providers can try to stay in densely populated areas that offer skilled labor
perceptions of nuclear energy and its historical barriers of high costs and lengthy
availability and robust fiber networks, but they’ll have to deal with increasing
construction times.
restrictions amid concerns that data centers exacerbate energy shortages. Or
The implications are profound, and not just for the energy sector: Apartment they could venture into less ideal locations lacking infrastructure and requiring
buildings will be powered, cooled, and lit efficiently by Amazon, and entire substantial capital investment. Either option presents an increased cost of digital
neighborhoods receive clean, cost-effective energy from Google or Microsoft. services for consumers and a significant ripple effect across the economy.

1 Big tech gets bolder 1 Cultivate partner and supplier relationships

Utilities could become disintermediated by tech Businesses will need to develop new partners,
companies, who find a competitive advantage in manufacturers, and markets so they have first mover
bundling energy with other services. advantage if geopolitical tensions rise unchecked,
impacting access to key components and markets.
2 Regulatory disruption
Changes in trade policies and regulations in 2 Get local
key markets could affect access to critical chip Companies may Invest in local or regional production
technologies and materials. capabilities to reduce dependence on global markets,
increasing customization capabilities and time to market.
3 Tech transfer
Intellectual property and sensitive technology 3 Fund alternatives
become entangled in technology transfer Technology firms must invest more in research and
regulations, especially in countries involved in development to create more advanced or alternative chip
geopolitical tensions. technologies that address the emerging challenges.

STRATEGIC QUESTIONS
1 2 3 4 5
How will geopolitical Do you have a robust How must you enhance How do geopolitical Considering the current
tensions affect the cost crisis management plan your cybersecurity tensions affect and potential future
of chips, and how can that includes scenarios measures to protect your commitment geopolitical landscape,
you mitigate these cost involving escalated against potential to environmental how should you adjust
increases? geopolitical tensions threats exacerbated by sustainability and ethical our long-term strategic
affecting chip supply? geopolitical tensions, sourcing, especially positioning to ensure
What financial cushions especially in critical concerning rare materials sustainability and
can be put in place to infrastructure related to used in chip production? growth?
absorb potential shocks? chip manufacturing and
distribution?
2024 TECH TRENDS REPORT • 17 TH EDITION
ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE
TECH ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE
TABLE OF CONTENTS
52 Your Guide to the Future of AI 76 LLMS as Operating Systems 84 Tools to Combat Broadly 92 New Architectures to Make AI 100 Regional Approaches
Malicious AI Behavior Workloads More Efficient
53 Top Headlines 78 Should we go open-source or 101 Countries try to regulate AI,
proprietary? 85 Does AI infringe on privacy? 93 A Nuclear Renaissance for AI but plans diverge
54 State of Play How should we think about Workloads
78 Open-Source LLMs for 102 How is the US specifically
56 Key Events customer data and AI
Commercial Use 93 Environmental AI regulating AI?
applications?
59 Likely Near Term Developments 79 Safety, Ethics & Society 94 Policy and Regulations 102 A Patchwork Approach
85 Increased Used of Ambient
60 Why Artificial Intelligence 80 Is AI really a black box? Surveillance 95 How does geopolitics factor into 104 Conflicting Views About
Trends Matter to Your the development of AI, and is there Institutional Roles
80 Explainable AI (XAI) 85 Worker Surveillance
Organization really a new cold war? 104 Public-Private Partnerships
80 AI Intentionally Hiding Data 85 School Surveillance
62 When Will Artificial 95 AI Nationalism 105 National Security
Intelligence Trends Impact Your 81 How do we ensure trust? 87 Is there a feasible solution to bias?
96 The AI-Driven Chip War 106 What is China doing?
Organization? 81 AI Alignment Goes Mainstream 87 Addressing Political Bias
97 Could AI be involved in—or 106 China’s Expanding Market
64 Opportunities and Threats 81 Indexing Trust 88 Addressing Race and Gender Bias cause—a hot war?
106 China’s Big Tech
65 Investments and Actions 82 Synthesizing Trust 89 What security issues should we 97 Autonomous Weapons Policies
To Consider prepare for? 107 Deepening International Ties
83 Are there tools to make AI ethical? 97 Simulating Warfare
66 Central Themes 89 Cyberthreats 109 What is Europe doing?
83 Deepfake Detectors 97 AI Used to Guide Military Strikes
69 Ones To Watch 89 Adversarial Attacks 111 What is the Middle East doing?
83 Tools for Identifying AI-Generated 98 Automated Target Recognition
Writing 90 Data Poisoning: A Double-Edged 113 Talent
70 Important Terms 98 Automating Offensive Attacks
Sword
73 Models, Techniques, 83 Tools for Detecting Copyright Using AI 114 Where and how do I get AI talent?
Violations in AI Outputs 90 AI Lowers the Barrier to
and Research Misinformation 98 AI-Assisted Situational Awareness 114 Demand for AI-related Skills
83 Tools for Exposing Deepfakes Increases Across Sectors
74 What is an AI model? 91 Privacy Risks in Behavioral 98 Algorithmic Warfighting
84 Tools to Thwart Recognition Biometrics 114 AI Brain Drain from Academia
76 Purpose-Built Models 99 Mandating Ethics Guidelines for
Systems 115 How will AI change the nature
92 What does AI have to do with ESG? Tech Contractors
76 LLMs Are Getting Bigger
of work?
and More Expensive

TABLE OF CONTENTS
115 Gains and Pains 122 On-Device AI 131 How is AI being used in pharma? 137 NLP Algorithms Detect Virus 145 Generating Virtual Environments
Mutations From Short Videos
115 Status Shifts 123 Wearable AI 132 Protein Folding
138 AI to Speed Up New Materials 145 AI Democratizes Music Production
116 Agents Will Increasingly Perform 124 Why should we pay attention to 132 AI-First Drug Development
Development
Tasks on Our Behalf emerging capabilities that aren’t 145 Automatic Ambient Noise Dubbing
132 Generative Antibody Design
yet fully developed? 139 How is AI being used in finance?
117 Emerging Capabilities 146 Generating Music From Text
133 How is AI being used in health
124 Vector Databases 139 Mitigating Fraud
118 Can AI reason? And how close are care? 147 How is AI disrupting the creative
we really to AGI and ASI? 124 Vertical Integration From Hardware 139 Predicting Financial Risk industry?
133 AI to Improve Patient Outcomes
to LLMs 147 AI-Assisted Invention
118 AI Breakthroughs in Mathematics 140 Customized Portfolios
133 AI-Assisted Diagnosis and Clinical
126 Industries Decision-Making 140 Growing Concern About Centralized 147 New Business Models
119 AI Persuasion
128 How is AI being used in HR? Data Sets
119 Prediction and Prescience Into Our 133 Anomaly Detection in Medical 148 Legal Battles Between Writers
Human Lives 128 Autonomous Talent Acquisition Imaging 141 How is AI being used in insurance? and AI
119 Detecting Emotion 128 Customer and Personnel 134 AI-powered movement 141 Predicting Workplace Injuries 149 Scenarios
Recognition Systems 134 Medical Deepfakes 141 The Connected Worker 150 Scenario: The Deepfake Mafia
120 Neuro-symbolic AI
128 Benefits Selection and 134 Healthcare-Specific LLMs 141 Improving Damage Assessment 151 Scenario: TrailMate SLM
121 Is the future of AI cloud, edge, or
Management
on-device? 135 In-Silico Trials 141 Consumer-Facing Robo-Advisers 152 Scenario: Centralized AI Belt and
129 How is AI being used in Road Infrastructure Crumbles
121 Cloud Neutrality 135 AI for Mental Health 141 AI Claims Processing
marketing?
121 Cloud Strain From AI Boom 153 Scenario: Tabby the Tiger:
129 AI Shifts Search 136 How is AI being used in science? 142 Liability Insurance for AI
Nurturing Curiosity Through AI
121 AI Breathes Life Into Legacy 136 AI-Driven Hypotheses 143 Creativity and Design Friendship
129 Dynamic Engagement Through
Systems
Deep Personalization 136 AI-Driven Experimentation 154 Scenario: What If “Thought-to-3D”
144 How are people using AI to be more
122 Optimizing AI to Run at the Edge creative? Was an AI Modality?
129 AI-Assisted Campaigns 137 AI-Powered Analysis and
122 Small Language Models for AI at the Interpretation 144 GAN-Assisted Creativity 155 Authors
130 Anecdotal Observations, Now
Edge
Usable Marketing Data 137 AI and the Replication Crisis 144 Neural Rendering 158 Selected Sources

YOUR GUIDE TO THE FUTURE OF AI
This rapid escalation in activity has left leaders feeling aim is to equip you with the insights necessary to navi-
caught off guard, prompting an urgent need for strategic gate the upcoming impacts on your organization.
decision-making. In our conversations with clients and
partners, a common theme has emerged: Leaders, under- We are confident that this report will serve as an invalu-
standably concerned about missing out on the next wave able tool for leaders looking to identify strategic oppor-
of innovation, need clarity about a complex area of tech- tunities, achieve competitive advantages, and enhance
nology that will continue to evolve for many years to come. organizational resilience in the foreseeable future.
For two decades, our commitment at Future Today Insti-
tute to understanding and leveraging artificial intelli-
Recognizing this, we’ve reimagined our approach for Welcome to your guide on the future of AI.
gence has been unwavering—even as general excitement
the AI section of our 2024 Tech Trends report. By actively
about AI has wavered considerably. We’ve watched in-
listening to leaders and experts in our network, we’ve
terest ebb and flow across industries, among executive
curated the most common questions we’re hearing from
leadership and boards of directors, and with investors,
our clients and grouped our AI trends accordingly. Our
legislators, and academia. Amy Webb
goal is to guide leaders through a thoughtful exploration
of these questions, enabling a deeper understanding of Chief Executive Officer
Today, we’re at a crucial inflection point in AI’s develop-
the implications.
mental journey. This moment isn’t marked by a single
technological breakthrough but rather by a development
While we don’t claim to hold all the answers—every orga-
that at first may seem less intuitive. What changed in the
nization’s journey with AI will be somewhat unique—what
past year is our perception of what AI is and how it will
we do offer is a foundation of extensive research and in-
change everyday life. AI models are now accessible to con- Sam Jordan
sightful, strategic analysis. You will encounter questions
sumers and businesses alike, so their value can be im- Manager and Advanced Computing Practice Lead
that mirror your own, as well as those you may not have
mediately understood. What’s followed: investment, new
considered but will likely confront in the coming year. Our
partnerships, and the grand expansion of value networks.

TOP HEADLINES 01 OpenAI Seeks $7 Trillion Investment

OpenAI’s Sam Altman wants to revamp the semiconductor sector with trillions in investment, targeting
global chip capacity to boost AI growth, engaging with investors like the United Arab Emirates.
This year, the AI landscape

could undergo a 02 Mainstream Multimodality
For the first time, the public can interact with advanced multimodal AI models capable of understanding
significant consolidation. and generating various media types, including images and videos. This innovation is akin to human
learning processes, enabling AI to learn from visual and auditory information, not just text—just like us.
Strategic investments,
groundbreaking 03 Nvidia GPUs in High Demand for AI Training
The rush to acquire Nvidia’s powerful GPUs for AI model training has intensified, as everyone from tech giants
innovations, and to startups seeks the computational horsepower these units offer for advanced machine learning tasks.
regulatory maneuvers
will further empower a 04 Open-Source AI Uprising
Meta sparked an open-source large language model movement by releasing the weights for LLaMA,
select group of power enabling researchers to freely build off the model, fine-tune it, and create customized versions.
brokers, intensifying the

05 US Tightens Grip on AI
competitive dynamics and The US intensifies its stance on AI by restricting access to crucial enabling technologies like semiconductors.
In a strategic move, the US also pressures allies to implement similar restrictions against China and Russia.
shaping the trajectory of
global AI dominance. 06 EU AI Act Sets New Global Standard
The EU introduces the first-ever comprehensive AI regulation and a European AI Office, aiming to ensure
safety and respect for fundamental rights, while encouraging innovation and investment in AI technologies
across Europe. Yet, concerns arise about stifling innovation and the high costs for businesses to comply.

STATE The past year marked a watershed moment for artificial intelligence. Central
to this transformation are the leaps in large language models (LLMs) and their
OF PLAY
practical applications, which have not only advanced the frontiers of AI but have
also catalyzed a broader integration of AI technologies into everyday life. AI prom-
ises revolutionary improvements in health care and life sciences: Now that we’ve
cracked the code on protein structures, an unimaginable number of new thera-
peutics are on the horizon, along with alternatives to address climate change. In
the coming year, AI’s reach will extend to people, pets, and objects alike, paving
the way for a very near-future in which digital assistants, automated systems,
AI embeds into everything, and spatial awareness are seamless, ubiquitous, and invisible. In parallel, the
transforming how we advancements in robotics, both hard and soft, are pushing the boundaries of
automation and human-machine interaction.
interface with computers
At the same time, AI’s energy demands pose a paradox, offering climate solu-
while researchers work to tions but also contributing to carbon emissions, a concern in energy-con-
make AI more capable and strained areas. The persistent talent gap in AI, particularly in data science, lim-
its its application in critical sectors like agriculture and health care. Political
efficient. This sprint toward engagement with AI is growing, which is good, but the end result has been a
slew of competing policies. Regulatory compliance and enforcement remains a
progress unfolds amid rising
challenge, since depending on the country’s position, they promise to both ac-
geopolitical tensions, as celerate and curtail the deployment of AI systems. The unequal distribution of AI
advancements risks deepening global inequalities, with the global south facing
dominance of these strategic significant disadvantages. Amid all these developments is the persistent geopo-
technologies reshapes litical tensions between China and the West.
global power dynamics. For many, generative AI (genAI) is the first entry point into this new reality, which
explains the explosive growth we’ve seen in the past year. Our analysis reveals a

STATE surge in experimentation with genAI tools across various sectors, indicating a
transformative shift toward embracing AI’s potential to innovate and streamline
OF PLAY
operations. This widespread interest in genAI spans a broad spectrum of stake-
holders, from business leaders to frontline workers, highlighting just how perva-
sive the first generation of tools has become.
But here’s the thing: GenAI isn’t all of AI. Often, when people talk about “AI” what
they really mean is “automation.” Artificial intelligence is an umbrella term that
encompasses many different techniques, models, and frameworks that make up
the field. AI’s aim is to create intelligent machines that can sense, reason, act,
and adapt like humans do, or in ways that go beyond our capabilities. Today, cars
can park themselves, while emerging platforms are capable of having seemingly
natural conversations. Now, AI is evolving to have beyond-human capabilities.
It has invented new drugs, predicted the real-time movement of wildfires, and
autonomously designed machine parts.
Developing AI requires extraordinary resources, which is why consolidation

among the tech giants is tightening. The biggest names in AI––OpenAI, Deep-
Mind, Anthropic––are increasingly hitched to the world’s biggest hyperscalers
and cloud providers (Microsoft, Google, Amazon). Venture capital and private eq-
uity are still flooding into startups and mature companies alike, and now, sover-
eign wealth funds have a seat at the table.
AI is magical, but it isn’t magic. As long as expectations are tempered, this

should be an era of significant innovation, experimentation, and growth, espe-
cially as AI propels growth in other areas of science and technology. We are cau-
tiously optimistic about what’s on the horizon.

KEY EVENTS
J A N UA RY 1 2 , 2 0 2 3 F E B R UA RY 7, 2 0 2 3 F E B R U A RY 2 4 , 2 0 2 3
AI Breakthrough in Lung Cancer Bing Adopts ChatGPT Meta introduces LLaMa

Detection Microsoft revolutionizes its Bing search The compact yet advanced 65-billion
A joint effort by MIT and Mass engine and Edge browser with the parameter language model is open-
General Hospital yields a significant integration of OpenAI technology. sourced and free for research and
advancement in lung cancer commercial use.
prognosis with the creation of a deep-
F E B R UA RY 2 1 , 2 0 2 3
learning model that assesses lung
MARCH 1, 2023
cancer risk from CT scans, potentially AWS and Hugging Face Collaboration
enhancing early detection and saving OpenAI Expands Developer Tools
AWS teams up with Hugging Face to
numerous lives.
streamline AI projects on Amazon’s OpenAI launches ChatGPT and
cloud, simplifying the deployment of AI Whisper APIs, providing developers
J A N UA RY 2 6 , 2 0 2 3 applications. with advanced language processing
and speech-to-text capabilities
High-Fidelity Music from Text beyond basic chat functions.
F E B R UA RY 2 1 , 2 0 2 3
Google Research’s MusicLM
introduces a transformative approach Real Fusion’s Photographic
MARCH 14, 2023
to generating detailed music Breakthrough
from text descriptions, achieving Google Introduces AI in Workspace
unprecedented audio quality and text Oxford researchers showcase Real
Fusion, a cutting-edge AI that can Google’s launch of assistive AI
adherence in the field.
reconstruct a complete 360-degree features in Workspace started with
photographic model from just one image. AI-powered writing tools in Docs and
F E B R UA RY 6 , 2 0 2 3 Gmail for trusted testers.
Google Unveils Bard

Google introduces Bard, an innovative
AI chatbot powered by its language
model LaMDA, as a response to
ChatGPT.

KEY EVENTS
MARCH 21, 2023 SEPTEMBER 21, 2023 N OV E M B E R 4 , 2 0 2 3
Adobe Unveils Firefly Microsoft Unveils Co-pilots Elon Musk’s xAI Debuts Grok
This new generative AI suite is Microsoft’s AI-powered 365 Copilot Inspired by the “Hitchhiker’s Guide to
designed to help users at all skill and GitHub’s CopilotX offers enhanced the Galaxy,” Grok answers questions
levels create high-quality images and assistance by integrating web context, with wit and provides real-time
text effects. work data, and real-time PC activities, world knowledge via the X platform,
prioritizing privacy and security. distinguishing itself by addressing
inquiries often declined by other AIs.
MARCH 28, 2023
SEPTEMBER 21, 2023
Khan Academy Launches Khanmigo
N OV E M B E R 1 4 , 2 0 2 3
Khan Academy launch of the YouTube Debuts AI Editing App
Khanmigo AI platform integrates The new app, YouTube Create, makes it Google Announces AI Genesis
virtual bots as counselors, curriculum easy to trim videos, slow down the pace, AI Genesis features the Gemini
designers, and teaching assistants. or add audio. large language model in three
sizes: Gemini Ultra for extensive
capabilities, Gemini Pro for broad
AU G U S T 1 5 , 2 0 2 3 O C TO B E R 2 5 , 2 0 2 3 task applications, and Gemini Nano
Google Launches Search Amazon Introduces AI Image optimized for specific tasks and
mobile use.
Generative Experience Generation
Google introduces genAI into search Amazon rollout of AI-powered image
queries, automatically generating generation capabilities through N OV E M B E R 1 7-2 2 , 2 0 2 3
summaries. Amazon Ads in beta aims to enhance
OpenAI’s Turbulent Week
ad experiences by enabling brands to
create lifestyle imagery that boosts ad After a tumultuous five days marked
performance. by his ouster and subsequent
reinstatement, Sam Altman resumes
his role as CEO of OpenAI, buoyed
by a concerted effort from allies,
employees, and investors.

KEY EVENTS
N OV E M B E R 2 1 , 2 0 2 3 DECEMBER 5, 2023 DECEMBER 13, 2023
StabilityAI Introduces Stable Video Diffusion AI Alliance for Responsible Innovation Forms Axel Springer Partners with OpenAI
StabilityAI’s inaugural foundation model for The AI Alliance for Responsible Innovation, The German media titan’s partnership
generative video builds on the technology of its including IBM, Meta, and 50 other organizations, lets OpenAI use Politico and Business
image model, Stable Diffusion. launches as a global consortium aimed at Insider articles for AI training, while those
promoting open, safe, and responsible AI news platforms get to employ ChatGPT for
development and adoption. summarizing news, marking a significant
N OV E M B E R 2 8 , 2 0 2 3 yet controversial collaboration in the news
Pika Debuts AI Video Editing App industry’s quest for innovation and survival.
DECEMBER 6, 2023
The app includes a new suite of videography
tools with a generative AI model that Google’s Gemini Surpasses GPT-4
DECEMBER 14, 2023
edits videos in diverse styles such as “3D Google’s next-generation AI model
animation,” “anime,” and “cinematic.“ outperformance of OpenAI’s GPT-4 set a new DeepMind’s FunSearch Breaks Boundaries
standard in AI capabilities. The tool has successfully solved complex
issues, proving AI’s ability to surpass the
N OV E M B E R 2 9, 2 0 2 3 limitations of its training data in large
D E C E M B E R 9, 2 0 2 3 language models (LLMs).
DeepMind Predicts Novel Material Structures
Google DeepMind’s researchers have leveraged EU Finalizes AI Act
AI to accurately predict the structures of The European Union achieved a landmark DECEMBER 14, 2023
more than 2 million new materials, offering agreement with the Artificial Intelligence Act,
significant implications for renewable energy introducing binding rules and standards for DeepMind Solves the Unsolvable with AI
and computing sectors. developing AI more responsibly. DeepMind’s use of an LLM to crack an
“unsolvable” math problem marks a
historic achievement, as detailed in Nature,
showcasing the model’s capacity to uncover
new, verifiable knowledge on a longstanding
scientific challenge.

LIKELY NEAR TERM DEVELOPMENTS

GENERAL ENTERPRISE AUTOMATION REGULATION AND GEOPOLITICS
Commoditization of General Purpose Models Talent Shift in AI Industry AI Assistants Transform Coding Landscape US Strategy on AI and China Relations
In the near future, expect the commoditization of Expect a significant talent crunch as top innova- AI coding assistants, such as GitHub’s Copilot The US is expected to intensify efforts to get allies
general purpose models. LLMs are becoming widely tors depart major tech giants like Google, OpenAI, and Meta’s Code Llama, are transforming software to limit their collaborations with China in AI de-
accessible and integral to app development. As and Meta to launch their own ventures, ranging development with advanced autocomplete func- velopment, following President Biden’s enhanced
these models become ubiquitous and cost-effec- from conversational agents to AI-first biotech tions and innovative debugging tools, offering both export restrictions on semiconductors. With the
tive, akin to cloud services, their adoption will stan-
firms, signaling a broad diversification and special- premium and free solutions to enhance coding Netherlands aligning with US requests, further
dardize across industries, diminishing their role as
ization within the AI sector. efficiency and creativity. Expect to see more im- demands on allies to adopt similar stances aim to
a competitive differentiator.
provements to these tools and more tools to launch curb China’s AI advancements.
in this space.
Large Reasoning Model Consolidation in 2024 AI Integration in Health Care and Life Sciences Europe Begins Regulating AI
Vertically integrated solutions will garner a higher Consolidation will persist this year, building on Generative AI will lead to breakthroughs in pro- The European Commission will open its European
transactional value. Some companies will win by moves like Microsoft’s 2023 increased investment teins, antibodies, and drugs. Specialized models AI Office, which will oversee the development and
providing “a refined/value-added LLM product” to in OpenAI for Bing, aimed at capturing market share will continue to accelerate discovery in biology and use of safe artificial intelligence (within Europe, at
the end consumer and meeting the customer in from Google search. Similar strategies by major chemistry, sparking more practical applications least) and assist with the implementation of the AI
desired distribution channels, such as LLMs for tech companies are anticipated throughout 2024. and boosting investment. Act. The office will enforce general purpose AI rules,
health care, legal, finance, and architecture. monitor compliance, and attempt to become a hub
for international cooperation on AI governance.
Adoption of Natural Language Interfaces Increased Enterprise Adoption of AI Challenges in US Chip Manufacturing Expansion
The evolution toward natural language interfaces The current macroeconomic environment is driving The US moves to onshore chip fabrication will expe-
will soon diminish the reliance on traditional graph- leaders to view AI as essential for growth, antici- rience growing pains associated with higher labor
ic user interfaces. This shift will enable more intu- pating increased enterprise adoption despite the costs compared to Taiwan. This shift may lead to
itive interactions with computers, using everyday potential for making some job categories obsolete. increased expenses in constructing fabs and pro-
language. This transition may also influence device ducing domestically made chips, surpassing initial
form factors, potentially leading to an increase in estimates outlined in the CHIPS Act.
wearables and the development of AI-specific devic-
es and operating systems centered around LLMs.

WHY ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE TRENDS MATTER TO YOUR ORGANIZATION
Business Impacts Global Tech Supply Chain

Rivalry Diversification and
Onshoring
Future Today Institute believes AI is a force multiplier on technological progress because it is an en- The race for AI supremacy
abler of other technologies and powers the evolution of business, government, and society. But new is intensifying geopolitical As tensions escalate,
large language model capabilities deeply concern some in professional and creative services. Models tensions, notably particularly in the
can now reason about concepts in text, not just perform pattern matching. They display forms of com- between the US and semiconductor industry,
mon sense and analogy—tasks once seen as uniquely human. And they apply these reasoning abilities China. Businesses must businesses will need to
navigate a landscape diversify their supply
across modalities—text, image, video, and more. Most alarming to some is that models seem to en-
where technology and chains to mitigate risks.
gage in recursive self-improvement when given the right training. They don’t just learn a static set of national security are The bifurcation in the
parameters. They learn how to learn better, becoming moving targets. increasingly intertwined, AI chip market might
affecting international compel companies to
Since publishing our first Tech Trends report 17 years ago, we have included and expanded our cover-
supply chains, market innovate independently
age on artificial intelligence. What began as several pages of insights is now a dedicated, stand-alone access, and regulatory or bring supply chains in-
report with more than 100 trends to monitor. AI is already transforming most economic sectors, but we compliance. Companies house, potentially leading
anticipate deeper impacts this year across insurance, finance, entertainment, health care, biotechnol- specializing in AI and to increased costs.
ogy, and cloud computing. related technologies
might face stricter export
controls, requiring them
to adjust strategies for
product development and
global expansion.

WHY ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE TRENDS MATTER TO YOUR ORGANIZATION
Defense Sector Strategic International Strategic Talent Custom, Fit-for- Adversarial AI Model
Innovation Collaborations Acquisition Purpose LLMs Preparedness Commodification
Updated Department Countries like China Companies must innovate Organizations that opt The susceptibility of AI Open-source language
of Defense policies on and the UAE are in talent acquisition and for custom AI models systems to adversarial models with commercial
autonomous weapons heavily investing in retention strategies to over general-purpose attacks calls for licensing, such as
and the use of AI in becoming global AI compete for scarce AI ones can achieve greater robust testing and Databricks’ Dolly, could
military strategies signal leaders, which presents expertise, particularly alignment with specific defense mechanisms. disrupt the market by
growing opportunities both opportunities against tech giants. This business objectives. This Companies specializing offering high-quality
for businesses in and challenges for may include offering differentiation can lead to in AI security services capabilities at a
the defense sector. international business competitive salaries, competitive advantages could see increased fraction of the cost. This
Companies developing collaborations. benefits, and unique work in operational efficiency, demand as businesses commodification poses
AI technologies could Companies might need environments, as well as customer insights, and seek to protect their an existential threat to
find new applications in to align with national investing in employee product innovation. AI investments from proprietary models from
warfare, surveillance, and AI strategies to enter or development and internal manipulation and big tech companies.
security, but also face expand in these markets, AI training programs to exploitation.
ethical and regulatory while also considering build talent in-house.
scrutiny. the implications of
technology transfer and
data security regulations.

WHEN WILL ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE DISRUPT YOUR ORGANIZATION?
AI WILL
Drawing a parallel to Moore’s law, which posits the doubling of transistors on
microchips roughly every two years, there’s speculation that AI’s intelligence
could follow a similar trajectory. If this is the case, several factors will drive this
DISRUPT exponential growth in intelligence: enhancements in data quality, increasing

computational power, and strides in algorithm efficiency, extracting more
intelligence per unit of data and compute.
EVERY However, unlike the steady hardware advancements Moore’s law describes,
INDUSTRY
AI has the potential for self-improvement. As AI begins to self-improve and
contribute to its own development, we may witness a self-reinforcing cycle
of intelligence growth. This positive feedback loop means that AI’s capacity
WITHIN THE
to learn and evolve could accelerate, leading to profound impacts across all
industries.
NEXT FIVE
The inevitability of AI-driven transformation is not a matter of if but when. Our
AI report is one section of our 2024 Tech Trends report, which offers in-depth
coverage of 15 additional technology and industry sectors. Each industry
YEARS
section contains timelines that outline how AI, along with other emerging
technologies, are expected to impact and influence that particular sector over
time. Refer to the “When will AI impact your organization?” page to find details
on specific timelines related to AI adoption and impact on your industry.

WHEN WILL ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE DISRUPT YOUR ORGANIZATION?
Below, we highlight high level near-term developments to keep an eye on across industries.
Scaling Media mentions

Enormous amounts of training data are still required for most AI Increased awareness and enthusiasm can influence the momen-
models to learn. For example, recommender systems coupled with tum of a technology, even when there’s been no real breakthrough.
generative AI could lead to deep personalization for the hospitality Until OpenAI’s ChatGPT breakthrough in late 2022, leaders weren’t
and health care sectors—as long as data is made available. Histor- talking about the impact genAI might have on their business.
ically, data is locked inside proprietary systems built by third par- Media bursts related to AI will drive momentum, especially if those
ties, and regulation often hinders access to certain forms of data. stories are favorable, and more importantly, are easily understood
by the public.
Investment
AI has passed through cycles of enthusiasm and disillusionment, Public perception
leading to either too much or not enough capital being made How the public understands and responds to AI advancements
available. Investors prioritize commercialization over basic R&D— will create or quell demand. This is especially true of generative AI
though the latter yields bigger impact and often stronger returns. and education/creativity/ intellectual property/misinformation,
Investors’s patience will influence progress and commercialization. and the role assistive technologies will play in shaping the future
workforce.
Constraints on adoption
Even if a technology is maturing, constraints on its adoption can R&D developments
hinder its impact on an industry. For example, a business may re- The pace of new research breakthroughs can’t be scheduled to
fuse to adopt an automated system because it challenges existing coincide with a board meeting or earnings report. Factors like fund-
orthodoxy or an existing successful strategy. This is especially true ing, quality, and size of staff, and access to resources can improve
in health care, insurance, and financial services. the likelihood and speed of new discoveries. We closely monitor
R&D developments but treat them as wild cards.
Regulations
Advances in technology typically outpace regulatory changes. This
has benefited AI, which until very recently was not targeted for
regulation. Additionally, whether local regulations are conflicting or
complementary, influences adoption in the marketplace.


Threats Opportunities
It’s possible for agents to learn the right skills but the wrong objectives; an AI system can be asked AI is on track to become an indispensable tool for knowledge workers. The next 18-24 months will see the
to learn something that then could be used for harmful purposes. Commercial AI products could development of assistive technologies tailored to various professions, akin to GitHub’s Copilot, but designed
inadvertently incentivize bad behavior. for financial analysts, commercial real estate developers, and lawyers.
Publicly available LLMs are often the foundation for AI startups, but some researchers and technologists Companies sitting on industry-specific data hold the cards to create powerful AI agents. In industries like
are questioning their defensibility when it comes to capturing value. The moat is in data. Techniques and law, finance, and other knowledge-based sectors, proprietary data can train more capable AI agents.
models will largely get commoditized, and served via the infrastructure layer, where real value will be
realized. Within the next 18-24 months, generative AI will integrate into many consumer apps. Where clicks and
keywords once dominated, intelligent assistants will guide users through voice and text. Personalized
Long-term sustainability depends on network effects to gather enough user data. User-generated support gets weaved throughout experiences, changing how people engage with information.
data can be harnessed to differentiate systems by offering tuned models on top of foundational/
commoditized LLMs, creating a flywheel effect. Longer term, niche LLMs will be owned by a select few AI models that understand language will lead to more devices that enable people to interact with technology
players, while general-purpose LLMs become commoditized. through voice and conversation instead of screens. Opportunities await for companies quick to challenge
status quo screen-centric form factors.
The challenge of balancing data collection for workflow optimization with concerns of worker
surveillance requires careful navigation by companies. AI’s use and understanding of behavioral AI is going local. Wearables and endpoints of all kinds will be embedded with AI, from pets’ collars that
biometrics could be considered intrusive into deeply personal behaviors, often subconscious to the report on animals’ activities, to smart home devices that understand and execute complex commands from
individual, starkly confronting worker privacy expectations. natural language. Large language models will migrate on-device, perhaps in lieu of a conventional operating
system.
Heightened protectionism across nations could escalate the costs of producing chips and other critical
technologies, and make it more difficult to find the right talent. Companies should brace for the adverse The rising energy needs of AI could incentivize tech companies to adopt alternative, greener energy sources
economic impacts of geopolitical shifts as supply chains undergo realignment. like nuclear and geothermal, potentially driving a shift toward sustainable energy independently of
government mandates.
AI models might achieve assigned goals by any means necessary, including suppressing or hiding data.
Systems are needed to identify when this happens—until then we risk using bad information to make Open-source models allow businesses and developers to adapt and enhance foundational models for
decisions. specific uses, saving the cost and effort of starting from scratch or investing heavily in data and training.
High-performing models are susceptible to “jailbreaking,” where bypassing LLM limitations can lead to
manipulations, resulting in unpredictable and potentially harmful outputs. Given that businesses and
entire institutions are starting to rely on LLMs, jailbreaking represents an urgent security threat that has
yet to be addressed.

INVESTMENTS AND ACTIONS TO CONSIDER
1 2 3 4 5 6
Create domestic intern- Investing in data centers Nvidia dominates the GPU As AI models grow in com- Build atop shared foun- Foster development of
ship and apprenticeship powered by renewable market, yet demand out- plexity, investing in alter- dations. Open-source small language models
programs to build talent energy or exploring part- paces even its cutting-edge native computing architec- models like LLaMA and (SLMs). Investing in the
pipelines in AI skills, where nerships with alternative chips. With shortages tures like neurosymbolic FLAN offer springboards research and deployment
shortages loom. Partner energies like nuclear and routine, space exists for AI, processing-in-memory to launch specialized of SLMs suitable for edge
with schools to develop geothermal could align AI rivals while cloud partners technology, and special- solutions tuned to distinct devices can open new
a homegrown workforce operations with ESG goals, hunger for inventory. ized AI chips for on-device industry needs. These spe- avenues for AI applica-
proficient in these tech- reducing the carbon foot- processing could offer cialized models are more tions in environments
nologies vital for national print of data processing significant advantages accurate and focused to where cloud connectivity
strategic interests. and storage, and reducing in efficiency, speed, and the industry they serve is limited or nonexistent.
the cost of compute. privacy. and give proper weight to SLMs can significantly
relevant parameters. expand the reach of AI
into everyday devices, en-
hancing user experience
and functionality.

CENTRAL THEMES
New data sources are coming Race for AI hardware supremacy Chip shortages loom large
The integration of hardware, particularly wearables, will The intersection of hardware development and geopolit- The surging demand for AI has highlighted the global
redefine the landscape of data collection and utilization. ical competition is reshaping the landscape of AI ad- supply chain’s inability to meet the need for powerful
Coming to market soon are an array of different wearable vancement, with implications spanning national security, chips essential for developing and deploying AI mod-
devices equipped with sensors, cameras, and speak- technological sovereignty, and economic prowess. As els. We predict a chip shortage, particularly for graphics
ers, and they represent a significant leap forward in our governments worldwide vie to establish AI supremacy processing units (GPUs), due to production issues and
ability to gather real-time, contextual data. This evolution and reduce dependence on foreign technology, substan- ongoing shipping challenges due to regional conflicts.
marks a future where the volume of data available for tial investments are pouring into domestic chip fabrica- Microsoft’s recent annual report marked the scarcity of
analysis will expand exponentially, offering unprecedent- tion and AI research. The US and China, in particular, are GPUs as a potential risk for investors, underscoring the
ed insights into consumer behavior and environmental locked in a battle for technological dominance, with both critical role these chips play in AI development and the
interactions. The challenge for organizations won’t just nations allocating significant resources toward bolster- broader implications for companies and end-users reliant
be in the collection, but in the sophisticated parsing and ing their respective chip capabilities and AI infrastruc- on AI technologies. The industry as a whole will grapple
interpretation of this deluge of data, requiring advanced ture. This geopolitical rivalry extends beyond economic with limited supply and the challenge of meeting explo-
AI algorithms and analytical frameworks. competition, with ideological considerations shaping sive demand, prompting a shift toward more efficient or
AI development strategies and regulatory frameworks. alternative computational methods. Maybe that’s why in
China’s insistence on AI alignment with socialist values February 2024, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman reportedly went
underscores its commitment to ideological control, while on a business development tour seeking $7 trillion in
Russia perceives Western AI advancements as a threat to investment to create an alternative to our current chips.
traditional values, driving efforts to develop indigenous AI
solutions. Meanwhile, escalating tensions have catalyzed
a bifurcation in the AI chip market, prompting countries
to explore alternative chip architectures and supply chain
diversification strategies. This unfolding chip war not
only underscores the strategic importance of semicon-
ductor technologies but also poses profound implica-
tions for global technological cooperation and innovation.

CENTRAL THEMES
Choosing between proprietary and open source Reckless era ends, oversight era begins AI doomers distract
Last year, when Meta released LLaM, its suite of open The era of “move fast and break things,” and “build first, Amid the discourse surrounding AI, a contingent of pes-
source LLMs, there was a new debate about the benefits ask permission later” appears to be waning in Silicon simistic voices, often referred to as “AI doomers,” has
and risks of going open source. Organizations using large Valley as regulatory scrutiny intensifies in response to emerged, likely to persist in the foreseeable future. For
language models face a challenging decision: Go with the growing concerns over AI’s societal impacts. With initia- business leaders, navigating this landscape proves chal-
big names like OpenAI and Microsoft for easy access to tives like a US presidential executive order and the EU’s lenging, as they are presented with polarizing narratives
top-notch tech but give up adaptability and transparency, AI Act, policymakers are striving to establish guidelines of either utopian ideals or dystopian anxieties, resulting
or push up your sleeves and build your own tailor-made and restrictions to govern AI technologies, particularly in in a nuanced yet unsettling reality. While it’s crucial to
systems to ensure transparency and extensibility. Despite sensitive areas like facial recognition. However, crafting remain vigilant against potential risks and mitigate them
the steep development costs associated with proprietary concrete policies that balance innovation with ethical effectively, the prevalence of doomerism tends to over-
LLMs, the open-source community has responded with considerations, poses significant challenges, and ensur- shadow constructive dialogue and proactive measures.
notable alternatives, such as Databricks’ Dolly LLM, which ing effective enforcement remains a formidable task. As
offers a solution at a fraction of the cost. The new shift governments grapple with the complexities of regulating
toward open-source solutions aims to counterbalance the AI, the tech industry faces a new era of accountability and
growing concentration of AI tools in the hands of a few responsibility for the products they create.
major corporations, offering businesses the opportunity
to integrate bespoke applications without compromising
proprietary information.

CENTRAL THEMES
Industry is building the future of AI, not academia AI widens global inequality gulf
The landscape of innovation is shifting, with industry The exorbitant costs associated with training language
emerging as the primary driver of technological advance- models are setting a precedent for the formidable ex-
ment, outpacing academia in the development of new penses expected in developing image and video models,
machine learning models. Recent data reveals a stark further accentuating disparities in resources between dif-
contrast: in 2022, industry produced 32 machine learning ferent regions and exacerbating the global divide between
models compared to academia’s three, marking a signif- the affluent and less affluent nations. This trend not only
icant departure from historical trends. Industry’s domi- reshapes the landscape of business and communities
nance is further underscored by its access to abundant but also positions wealthy countries, notably the United
resources—large data sets, computational power, and Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia, as potential hubs for AI
financial capital—essential for creating cutting-edge AI development, potentially marginalizing opportunities for
systems. This transition is reflected in the career choices advancement in the global south.
of AI Ph.D. graduates, with 65.4% opting for industry posi-
tions, compared to 28.2% in academia, a trend that has
steadily widened since 2011. The exodus from academia
to corporations could have a chilling, long-term effect on
knowledge transfer from professors to students, which
could negatively impact the future pipeline for the talent
industry which will need to remain competitive.

ONES TO WATCH
Dr. Aidan Gomez, CEO and co-founder of Dr. Dario Amodei and Daniela Amodei, CEO Lila Ibrahim, COO of Google DeepMind, for Sebastien Krier, international policy manager
Cohere, for proposing the novel neural network and president of Anthropic, for creating one of leading the company’s responsibility and gover- at DeepMind, for his research and intellectual
technique called the transformer that now un- the world’s leading AI labs. nance work. contributions to AI alignment discourse.
derpins the generative AI era.
Dr. David Rolnick, assistant professor of com- Marc Raibert, executive director at Boston Dr. Sune Lehmann, professor at the Technical
Arthur Mensch, Dr. Guillaume Lample, and Tim- puter science at McGill University, for work on a Dynamics AI Institute, for his work to develop University of Denmark , for research into the
othée Lacroix, co-founders of European genera- framework for understanding the relationship AI-driven robots that can reason. predictive capabilities of AI, specifically its po-
tive AI upstart Mistral AI. of AI and greenhouse gas emissions. tential to forecast events in an individual’s life.
Miguel Solano, co-founder and CEO of VMind,
Dr. Andrej Karpathy, researcher at OpenAI for Grimes, artist and musician, for championing for his work to improve AI compute performance Dr. Swami Sivasubramanian, vice president
his research in deep learning and computer new business models around AI for likeness in GPUs using novel algorithmic techniques. of database, analytics, and machine learning
vision. leasing and creative experimentation. at Amazon Web Services, for advancing cloud
Dr. Ning Zhang, an assistant professor of com- capabilities and insights for businesses.
Clément Delangue, CEO and co-founder of Dr. Jaime Teevan, chief scientist and technical puter science and engineering at Washington
Hugging Face, for creating an open-source, fellow at Microsoft, for spearheading the use of University, for the development of AntiFake, a Dr. Xin (Eric) Wang, assistant professor of
for-profit machine-learning platform. LLMs in Microsoft’s core productivity products. tool that prevents unauthorized speech synthe- computer science and engineering at Baskin
sis. Engineering at UC Santa Cruz, for the develop-
Dr. Daniel Kang, assistant professor at Uni- Jensen Huang, CEO, president, and co-founder ment of the Text to Image Association Test, a
versity of Illinois Urbana-Champaign , for his of Nvidia, for navigating the growing geopoliti- Dr. Prakhar Mehrotra, vice president for tool that measures complex human biases in
research identifying potential harms from cal chip conflict. applied AI at Walmart Global Tech, for leading text-to-image models.
language models, including demonstrating enterprise adoption of AI.
language models’ ability to autonomously inter- Dr. Joelle Pineau, vice president of AI research Dr. Zhou Jingren, deputy director of Aliba-
act with websites in concerning ways without at Meta, for developing new models and algo- Robin Li, CEO, chairman and co-Founder of ba Damo Academy (Alibaba’s bleeding-edge
human feedback, and his work to develop rithms for planning and learning in complex Baidu, which last year released Ernie Bot, an research arm), for leading AI initiatives related
methods that promote the safe and ethical partially observable domains. LLM on par with ChatGPT. to smart cities, autonomous driving, mobile
development of AI. computing platforms, semiconductor R&D, and
Leopold Aschenbrenner, AI alignment re- Dr. Ruogu Fang, an associate professor in the J.
other areas.
David Nippa, a doctoral student at Ludwig-Max- searcher at OpenAI, for his contributions to AI Crayton Pruitt Family Department of Biomedical
imilians-Universität München, for the develop- alignment discourse. Engineering, for his work to evaluate diagnostic
ment of an AI model that can predict where a bias in AI tools.
drug molecule can be chemically altered.

IMPORTANT TERMS
MACHINE LEARNING (ML) Unsupervised learning DEEP LEARNING (DL) is classification. If a researcher has 10,000 images
ML uses data to make predictions and recommen- Data is provided to a model without specific output Deep learning is a relatively new branch of ma- and needs to extract data—to recognize particu-
dations on how to achieve stated goals. AI pioneer parameters, and the model tries to learn the data chine learning. Programmers use special deep lar faces, for instance—the CNN would run until
Arthur Samuel popularized the idea of machine set’s structure without any designated labels. For learning algorithms alongside an enormous corpus information could be inferred. In business, CNNs
learning in 1959, explaining how computers could example, if a researcher doesn’t know what to do of data—typically many terabytes of text, images, are used to identify anomalies in medical imag-
learn without being explicitly programmed. This with a large data set, an unsupervised learning videos, speech, and the like. Often, these systems ing, faulty products on a production line, blight on
would mean developing an algorithm that could model could determine patterns, classify data, are trained to learn on their own, and they can sort crops, and other irregularities.
someday extract patterns from data sets and use and make recommendations without a human through a variety of unstructured data, whether it’s
those patterns to predict and automatically make supervisor. Researchers used unsupervised learn- making sense of typed text in documents or audio Recurrent neural networks (RNNs)
real-time decisions. It took many years for reality ing during the pandemic to find patterns on how clips or video. These multilayered neural networks move and store
to catch up with Samuel’s idea, but today machine COVID-19 spread throughout communities. information between input, hidden, and output
learning is a primary driver of AI’s growth. In practical terms, deep learning’s emergence layers. They are good at modeling sequence data for
Reinforcement learning (RL) means that more and more human processes will predictions. In business, they are used anytime the
There are different types of machine learning, including A system performs a task by repeatedly running be automated, including the writing of software, sequence of data matters, such as speech recog-
supervised, unsupervised, and reinforcement. calculations as it attempts to accomplish a stated which computers will soon start to do on their own. nition and language translation. RNNs are used in
goal. It’s a trial-and-error process, where rewards For example, once a system learns what an object digital assistants, to create captions for images,
Supervised learning looks like—say, an apple—and then can recognize
or penalties are earned in response to the system’s and to generate narrative reports using structured
A model that attempts to transform one type of that object in all other images, even if it has only a
performance toward achieving the stated goal. RL is data (sports, financial).
data into another type using labeled examples. partial view.
used when there isn’t enough training data, when
Supervised learning is used when teams know how Transformers
the researcher is trying to learn about an environ-
to classify the input data and what they are trying There are different types of deep learning architectures. A transformer is a component whose purpose is to
ment (such as a complex financial portfolio), or
to predict, but can get accurate results much more The most common types include convolutional neural process sequential data, such as natural lan-
when the researcher needs to find greater levels
quickly by relying on an algorithm rather than a networks, recurrent neural networks, transformer neural guage or genome sequences. Transformers rely on
of optimization. It has a high number of business
human. This is the most common form of ML used networks, and generative adversarial networks (GANs). “attention” (the mathematical description of how
use cases, ranging from real-time dynamic pricing
today. Understanding what product features would things relate to, complement, or modify each other)
models to high-frequency trading algorithms to the Convolutional neural network (CNN)
most likely drive new purchases is a business use in translating sequences. A transformer neural
systems that operate self-driving cars. A CNN is multilayered, with a convolutional layer, a
case for supervised learning. network is the unique architecture that enables
pooling layer, and a fully connected layer. Each one
systems to learn from context and to generate new
performs a different task with the data. The output

IMPORTANT TERMS
information. Transformers are complementary to ADDITIONAL TERMS Automatic speech recognition of images and videos, often used in AI for parallel
CNNs and RNNs, the two most common neural net- Agents Algorithmic systems that give computers the abil- processing tasks.
work architectures used in deep learning. In AI, agents are entities that perceive their envi- ity to recognize and convert audio to human-read-
ronment and take actions autonomously to achieve able language. Model
Generative adversarial networks (GANs) specific goals. A program that has been trained on a data set.
As unsupervised deep learning systems, GANs are Chain of Thought Models are generally used for analytical and deci-
composed of two competing neural networks—a AGI (artificial general intelligence) This involves a model processing information or sion-making tasks, such as making predictions.
generator and a discriminator—that are trained A designation for systems that match and then solving problems step by step, mimicking hu-
on the same data, such as images of people. The exceed the full range of human cognitive ability man-like reasoning. Natural language processing
networks compete against each other to perform across all economically valuable tasks. Processes that give computers the ability to under-
a task, such as identifying the correct person, re- Computer vision stand, mimic, and manipulate human language.
sulting in optimizing overall performance. GANs are AI safety Processes that give computers the ability to derive
A field that studies and attempts to mitigate the meaningful information from digital images (in- Parameter
useful when researchers don’t have enough data
catastrophic risks that future AI could pose to cluding still and video) and to mimic and manipu- A variable internal to the model that the system
to train an algorithmic model, and are also used to
humanity. late such images. adjusts during training to improve performance on
create new, synthetic data.
given tasks.
Deepfakes, which have become prevalent in the Algorithm Foundation model
past year, are generated using GANs. In design, A process describing how to solve a specific prob- A large-scale AI model trained on vast amounts of Prompt
GANs are tremendously useful: They can produce lem or how to complete a particular task. data, capable of being adapted to a wide range of An input given to a model to elicit a specific output
thousands of designs and recommend the best tasks without being trained from scratch. or response, guiding the AI in generating content or
Alignment solving problems.
ones based on pre-set parameters. They can gen-
The process of ensuring that an AI’s actions and Generative AI
erate and modulate voices, faces, even gestures.
goals are in harmony with human values and inten- GenAI refers to AI technologies that can generate Recommender systems
Researchers from Nvidia, Mass General Hospital,
tions. new content, including text, images, music, and A class of machine learning algorithms that uses
BWH Center for Clinical Data Science, and the Mayo
video, based on learned data patterns. data to predict, narrow down, and find what people
Clinic collaborated on a GAN that generates syn-
ASI (artificial superintelligence) are looking for among an exponentially growing
thetic MRIs showing cancerous tumors. GPU
ASI refers to an AI system that surpasses human in- number of options.
telligence and capability across all fields, including A graphics processing unit is specialized hardware
creativity, general wisdom, and problem-solving. designed to accelerate the creation and rendering

IMPORTANT TERMS
RHLF XAI (explainable AI)
Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback is a AI systems designed to provide human-under-
training method where AI models are refined based standable insights into their decision-making
on feedback or corrections provided by humans, processes, enhancing transparency and trustwor-
enhancing their performance and alignment with thiness.
desired outcomes.
Zero-shot learning
Supervised learning An AI approach that enables models to correctly
A type of AI training where models learn from handle tasks or recognize objects they have not
labeled data, using known input-output pairs to seen during training, using understanding from
predict outputs from new inputs. related contexts.
Symbolic AI
Symbolic AI involves AI systems that use explicit,
human-readable symbols to represent knowledge
and perform logical reasoning to solve problems.
Training data
The data set used to teach AI models how to under-
stand and perform tasks by identifying patterns,
making decisions, or generating predictions.
Unsupervised learning
Unsupervised learning involves AI models identi-
fying patterns and structures in data without any
labeled outcomes, learning from the data itself.

MODELS,
TECHNIQUES,
AND
RESEARCH

WHAT IS AN AI MODEL?
An AI model is a computational structure that is designed to perform tasks Examples Gemini With the ability to manage up
that would normally require human intelligence. This includes recognizing Note: All of these examples are After an underwhelming debut to 200,000 words or sym-
current as of March 1, 2024 in 2022, Google iterated to the bols, Claude 2.1 significantly
speech and images, interpreting visuals, translating between languages, and surpasses GPT-4’s limit of
more impressive Gemini Pro in
making decisions. There are several types of AI models, each suited to spe- ChatGPT-4 early 2024. This model demon- 128,000. The new iteration of
cific tasks and goals but at their core, all AI models rely on algorithms and OpenAI’s most recent model as strates rapid advances, as Claude is designed to reduce
mathematical frameworks. They are “trained” on large data sets so they can of publication, GPT-4, doesn’t evidenced by its meteoritic rise the likelihood of generat-
just generate text—it can up the Hugging Face conversa- ing inaccurate information
refine their internal parameters and improve at assigned tasks. As AI systems
generate images from text and tional AI leaderboard. Google’s compared to earlier versions.
become more advanced, they require more data and computing power during vice versa. It was trained on Gemini isn’t just a single AI A significant enhancement in
this training process. enormous data sets of text and model—it encapsulates a suite Claude 2.1 includes its ability
images using reinforcement of AI models for varied appli- to utilize tools and interface
Constructing AI models is an enormously resource-intensive process, not learning from human feedback cations. Gemini Nano targets with APIs. Additionally, the in-
comparable to traditional software development. Training a high-performance (RLHF), which helped make the offline Android use. Gemini troduction of system prompts
language model demands processing huge data sets to fine-tune millions of model more helpful and safer Pro now powers Bard and allows users to define precise
for users. Early benchmarks emerging enterprise services. contexts for their inquiries,
parameters. This mandates extensive computing power and specialist time promoting more organized
exhibit GPT-4’s versatility on Gemini Ultra is Google’s most
measured in months or years. As a result, advanced models are predomi- tasks from legal exams to ad- advanced large language model and reliable responses from
nantly built by tech industry leaders like Google, Microsoft, and OpenAI who versarial truthfulness tests. On yet, designed to elevate search, the model.
possess the vast technical infrastructure and talent required. The consum- the Uniform Bar Exam, it scored advertising, and cloud products
90% versus GPT-3.5’s 10%, globally. PaLM 2
er focus and profit motive within these companies have accelerated model
while reducing factual errors PaLM is a 540 billion parame-
innovation beyond academic efforts. Historically, academia was seen as the by 40% compared to ChatGPT. Claude 2.1 ter language model developed
most likely source of groundbreaking AI. But the sheer data scale, computing While hallucination risks still Anthropic unveiled Claude by Google AI. Smaller 8 billion
power, and engineering capacity within industry, has proven far more effi- exist, GPT-4 marks substantial 2.1, the latest in its series of and 62 billion parameter
progress in mitigating failure language models, capable of versions were also trained.
cient for allocation of resources.
modes. processing significantly longer PaLM demonstrates strong
texts than OpenAI’s GPT-4. performance across common-

sense reasoning, math reason- OpenAI’s DALL-E 3 by descriptive text inputs. Google Lumiere Users can ask the tool to create
ing, humor, code generation, DALLE-3 is a text-to-image AI Google’s Lumiere is a text-to- a video of a real person (e.g.,
translation, and other tasks. system that can create realistic Midjourney video diffusion model that “imagine Oprah as a Pixar
The model highlights Google art and images from textual Midjourney creates visuals creates video from a prompt cartoon”), ask the tool to edit
AI’s advances in scalable trans- descriptions. DALL-E is capable based on textual descriptions, with realistic motion. Utilizing glasses on a video of a donkey,
former architecture research of generating images in various known as prompts, akin to a novel diffusion model named or change the style of a video to
for language AI. styles like photorealistic, paint- the functionalities offered by Space-Time-U-Net (STUNet), something out of Studio Ghibli.
ings, and emoji. Without explicit OpenAI’s DALL-E and Stability Lumiere excels in creating
Whisper prompting, the model can ma- AI’s Stable Diffusion. A fake Mi- realistic video content by
Whisper is an open-source nipulate and rearrange objects djourney-created image of Pope understanding both spatial
automatic speech recognition as well as correctly position de- Francis wearing a puffer jacket placement and temporal move-
system created by OpenAI. sign elements in new composi- went viral in 2023. ment within a video. Unlike
First released in 2022, it was tions. These creative capacities other methods that assemble
trained on over 680,000 hours demonstrate DALL-E’s aptitude Open AI’s Sora videos from individual frames,
of multilingual speech data for controllable high-fidelity In early 2024, OpenAI released Lumiere crafts videos through a
scraped from the internet. image generation. Sora, an AI model that can seamless integration of frames,
Whisper can transcribe speech create realistic and imagina- achieving fluid motion across
to text in multiple languages Stability AI’s Stable tive scenes from text instruc- 80 frames—significantly more
including English. It can also Diffusion tions. Sora marks a significant than its current competitors.
translate speech from non-En- Stable Diffusion is a text-to-im- advancement in AI’s capability
glish languages into English age generation model released to execute human creativity by Pika
text. Compared to other publicly in 2022 leveraging diffusion transforming brief text inputs Pika is an “idea-to-video” plat-
available systems, Whisper methodology. Primarily used into compelling videos up to a form to edit and create videos
demonstrates leading speech to create detailed images from minute long, not only achieving from text and still images. Pika
transcription and transla- text prompts, Stable Diffusion realistic imagery but also emu- includes features like text-
tion capabilities. OpenAI has can also perform tasks like in- lating the dynamic essence of to-video, image-to-video, and
released the model freely for painting, outpainting, and im- movies, similar to how ChatGPT video-to-video conversions.
public use. age-to-image translation driven mimics human conversation.

Purpose-Built Models cost around $2.1 million to train. Bloom, an 1.4 trillion pieces of text over 21 days, which
Organizations must decide whether to use open-access multilingual language model, amounts to nearly 1 million hours of GPU
ready-made general purpose AI models like is estimated to have required an investment time. If using public cloud services, this level
OpenAI’s GPT, or invest in developing custom of approximately $2.3 million. OpenAI hasn’t of compute would cost approximately $2.4
models tailored to their industry and needs. provided public information about the cost to million. Despite its impressive capabilities,
General-purpose models like GPT are conve- train ChatGPT-4, but many analysts estimate with “only” 65 billion parameters, LLaMA is
nient “plug-and-play” solutions that can adapt the earlier version of the model, GPT-3, could still smaller compared to larger models like
to many tasks through fine-tuning. However, exceed $4 million. OpenAI’s ChatGPT-4, which has 1.76 trillion
their flexibility is limited when it comes to spe- parameters.
As the number of parameters increases, so
cialized business challenges. Custom models
does the cost. Moreover, unlike traditional LLMS as Operating Systems
built for a specific purpose can better master
software, deployment costs remain high
industry-specific challenges by training on A radical new concept for computing has
post-development. Operating large language
aligned data and objectives. OpenAI now pro- emerged—an operating system powered by a
models for inference still necessitates
vides a simple way for users to create custom large language model at its core rather than
enormous compute for the billions of calcu-
models through the GPT marketplace—users traditional programming. In this conceptual
lations involved per user query. Furthermore,
describe their requirements to ChatGPT, and it LLM-based OS, routine tasks could be auto-
contributing to the high price tag of training
handles coding the new model. Custom GPTs mated and executed with an unprecedented
and running large language models de-
can then be integrated into platforms and level of sophistication, without the need for
mands specialized AI hardware, with graphics
services, accessing databases, email, e-com- manual coding or intervention. The user in-
processing units (GPUs) now standard over
merce, and more to automate workflows. terface would also be radically different than
traditional CPUs. Initially designed for gam-
traditional operating systems. Rather than
LLMs Are Getting Bigger and More Expensive ing, GPUs are perfectly suited for handling
conventional graphical user interfaces or
the extensive data processing demands of While general-purpose models offer broad applica-
Because of their massive size and complexity, command line prompts, users could interact bility, their limitations in specialized contexts are
AI, despite their high cost of thousands of dol-
the cost of developing LLMs is high. Training conversationally with the LLM through natural driving the development of models tailored to meet
lars per chip. For example, Meta used 2,048
these models can cost millions of dollars. language requests and queries. For example, the unique demands of specific industries.
Nvidia A100 GPUs to train its LLaMA model on
DeepMind’s Chinchilla, for example, reportedly a user could say, “Please open yesterday’s
Image credit: Future Today Institute and Midjourney.

sales report and format it as a slide presenta- chatbot for Windows RTX PCs that runs lo-
tion for my upcoming meeting.” The LLM would cally to connect users’ data and queries to an
comprehend these conversational commands open-source large language model. By keep-
and perform the necessary actions to carry out ing data on device rather than in the cloud,
the desired tasks. It would execute complex Chat with RTX not only delivers ultra-fast
workflows automatically by understanding response times but also enhances user
users’ intentions and goals. This could enable privacy and data security. The chatbot allows
more intuitive, efficient interactions between natural language interaction to search files
humans and computers. so that users can simply ask, “What was that
song my friend recommended while we were
This concept has moved beyond theory into at the airport?” instead of manually searching
practical application, as demonstrated by through texts and email.
Jesse Lyu, CEO and founder of Rabbit. Lyu
launched the R1, a compact device about half
the size of an iPhone, running on Rabbit OS—
an operating system grounded in a LLM. Rabbit
OS functions as a universal app controller,
akin to systems like Alexa or Google Assistant,
yet it offers a unique twist. It simplifies user
interaction by removing the need to navigate
through multiple apps or perform repetitive
logins. Instead, users can directly communi-
cate their needs to the device, and R1, under-
standing these natural language requests,
LLMs are becoming more central to human-computer interactions. As such, interfaces are shifting from
efficiently executes the desired tasks. In early
search to conversational questions and answers in plain language.
2024, NVIDIA announced a personalized AI

SHOULD WE GO OPEN-SOURCE OR PROPRIETARY?
Companies that want to use LLMs must choose between proprietary or open Proprietary examples: Open-Source LLMs for Commercial Use
source. Both have benefits and drawbacks. Proprietary LLMs from major tech Proprietary large language models cost millions to develop,
OpenAI’s GPT-4
companies provide easy implementation and leading-edge features. However, which means high-quality capabilities are concentrated within
Anthropic’s Claude 2
wealthy tech giants. However, the open-source community
they lack transparency into how they work and have limited ability to custom- Google’s Bard has responded with surprisingly capable smaller models by
ize them. Building a proprietary model internally gives companies more con- fine-tuning them on quality data. For example, in March 2023
trol over security, privacy, and tailoring the training to their specific data and Open-Source examples: Databricks released Dolly—an open-source LLM trained for
needs. But this requires considerable expertise and time to develop. On the under $30 yet demonstrating conversational prowess rivaling
Meta’s LLaMA
other hand, open-source language models promote transparency and flexibili- ChatGPT. It was developed using Meta’s open-source LLaMA
RedPajama-INCITE LLM and fine-tuned with high-quality inputs from Databricks
ty at often lower, long-term costs. Yet if governance practices like testing for bi-
ases and false information are insufficient, they pose risks around issues like BigScience’s Bloom employees. The initiative aimed to provide an alternative to
TII’s Falcon the increasing centralization of AI tools in a few large compa-
fairness, accuracy, and security vulnerabilities. When considering using LLMs,
nies, focusing on an open-source chat model that permitted
executives should think about cost, control, customization, and risk. There is commercial use while protecting intellectual property and
no universally superior choice—rather, companies must weigh their priorities, corporate information. Databricks not only open-sourced the
capabilities, and constraints to determine if an off-the-shelf, customized, or training code, data set, and model weights for Dolly but also
open-source large language model approach best suits their situation. launched Dolly 2.0 in April 2023. Dolly 2.0 is open-source LLM
licensed for commercial use, allowing companies to integrate
their data with Databricks’ data set to create bespoke applica-
tions without compromising their proprietary information.
We have our own nervousness, but we believe that
we can manage through it, and the only way to do
that is to put the technology in the hands of people.
—Sam Altman, CEO of OpenAI

SAFETY,
ETHICS
& SOCIETY

IS AI REALLY A BLACK BOX?
Many AI systems are opaque “black vide interpretable visibility into significant goal. That’s why researchers need to under-
boxes” in how they work. Developers aspects of functionality. This can involve stand how AI reaches the end goal. It might be
revealing training data characteristics, cheating to complete the task they were told
often withhold model and train-
delineating gaps in data coverage, auditing to do. Researchers at Stanford University and
ing details to protect IP. This lack AI, like any technology, data collection fairness, detailing human Google discovered that an AI system designed
of transparency perpetuates an
impression that the systems have is a reflection of its involvement in model development, and
highlighting key input features that drive
to turn satellite images into usable maps was
withholding certain data. The researchers were
unknowable inner workings. More- creators and their outputs. A core focus is validating outcomes using a neural network called CycleGAN, which
over, researchers themselves don’t by surfacing how predictions, classifica- learns how to map image transformations. It
fully understand why AIs sometimes intentions. tions and recommendations are supported took an old aerial photograph of a neighbor-
to establish trustworthiness. Rather than hood, distinguished between streets, alleys,
behave unexpectedly, owing to in-
—Joy Buolamwini, eliciting every intricate internal model driveways, buildings, and lampposts, and then
herent complexity. While inputs and founder of the Algorithmic Justice League transformation, XAI pursues strategic expla- generated a map that could be used by GPS.
outputs are observable, the logic be- nations of the most critical workings—an- Initially, they used an aerial photograph that
tween remains nebulous. Thus some swering targeted questions about why and hadn’t been seen by the network. The resulting
black-box qualities persist around how certain results are produced. The objec- image looked very close to the original—sus-
advanced models’ inner transforma- tives are accountability through limited but piciously close. But on deeper inspection, the
Explainable AI (XAI)
tions, despite transparency efforts. meaningful transparency, error checking via researchers found that many details in both
Achieving full transparency into complex AI result explanations, and accessibility for a the original image and the generated image
So while more visibility into AI func-
systems is difficult. However, the emerging wider range of model users. weren’t visible in the map made by the AI. It
tionality and development is crucial field of explainable AI seeks to enable better turns out that the system learned to hide infor-
for accountability and trust, uncer- human understanding of how algorithms AI Intentionally Hiding Data mation about the original image inside of the
tainties around emergent system function and arrive at outputs. Since com- Computers do exactly as they are told. If you image it generated.
behaviors may endure. plex machine learning models cannot act as command a machine to win at a game, it will
total glass boxes, XAI instead seeks to pro- do everything in its power to achieve that

HOW DO WE ENSURE TRUST?
As AI is increasingly incorporated AI Alignment Goes Mainstream perative to quickly harness AI solving pressing
into more sensitive domains, press- As AI systems improve, many researchers global problems like disease, inequality, and
want guardrails to ensure that they are de- climate change.
ing questions emerge.
ployed in ways that do not harm humanity.
The biggest lesson learned is In the moderate middle lie a diversity of per-
How can we build AI that we can trust? AI alignment research refers to the process
we have to take the unintend- of ensuring that AI systems act in accor-
spectives. Some, like economist Tyler Cowen,
How can we trust AI’s predictions and con- argue the doomers’ risks are too narrowly
ed consequences of any new dance with human values and goals. OpenAI,
specified for high probability, while others like
clusions when much of the system DeepMind, and Anthropic (which describes
is opaque? technology along with all the itself primarily as an “AI safety and research
Leopold Aschenbrenner from OpenAI’s “supera-
benefits, and think about them lignment team” make the case for substantial
company”) each have AI alignment teams
How can we ensure that AI is aligned with investments in AI alignment research, akin to
human values, especially as it becomes
simultaneously—as opposed with dedicated staff researching guardrails.
“Operation Warp Speed” but focused on AI. This
While the total number of researchers work-
more and more capable? to waiting for the unintended ing on AI alignment is small compared to
approach stems from the belief that artificial
general intelligence (AGI) could become the
Could we inadvertently instruct a powerful
consequences to show up and the rest of the AI community, such dedicated
most powerful tool ever developed, necessitat-
then address them. I don’t think teams did not exist until recently. The debate
AI towards harm? ing leadership in AI research by countries like
surrounding the alignment of AI with human
the world will put up anymore objectives encompasses a broad spectrum
the US to maintain a strategic advantage over
Can we trust the current human custodians nations such as China. These represent just a
of this technology? with any of us coming up with of opinions. On one end, “AI doomers” view
few of the myriad perspectives and it is likely
unchecked advancement, especially toward
something where we haven’t that more perspectives will emerge before we
These pressing issues are at the superhuman capabilities, as posing existen-
thought through safety, equity tial catastrophe risk—potentially including
converge on the right AI-alignment strategy.
heart of ongoing debates among AI
ethics experts, where a definitive and trust—these are big issues human extinction. They advocate solutions Indexing Trust
like indefinite moratoriums on large model
consensus on the best approaches for the world. training to forestall such outcomes. By con-
We will soon reach a point when we can no
has yet to be reached. trast, the “effective accelerationist” perspec-
longer tell if a data set has been tampered with,
—Satya Nadella, CEO of Microsoft either intentionally or accidentally. AI systems
tive sees hastening progress as a moral im-

HOW DO WE ENSURE TRUST?
rely on our trust. If we no longer trust their work directly with managers and developers
outcomes, decades of research and technolog- and ensuring diversity among developers—
ical advancement will be for naught. Leaders representing different races, ethnicities,
in every sector—government, business, non- and genders—will reduce inherent bias in AI
profits, and so on—must have confidence in systems.
the data and algorithms used. Building trust
and accountability requires transparency and Synthesizing Trust
is a challenge, but there are efforts underway Humans can be tricked into believing ma-
to assess AI transparency, a critical first step. chine-generated faces, especially when
Researchers from Stanford, MIT, and Princeton they’ve been engineered to elicit trust. A study
designed the Foundation Model Transparency in the Proceedings of the National Academy of
Index (FMTI)—a scoring system that evaluates Sciences shows that synthetic faces are often
transparency across model development, func- “deemed more trustworthy than real faces,”
tionality, and usage. The 2023 index places suggesting that synthetic faces could be
Llama 2 at the top, as the most transparent designed as societal malware. If a bad actor
Foundation model, followed by BigScience’s was attempting to undermine institutions, it
BloomZ and OpenAI’s GPT-4. The hope is that could deploy a synth on social media to sow
by standardizing analysis of opaque systems, distrust. There are not yet effective counter-
deployment risks and responsibilities can be measures for synthetic humans or effective
better informed. markers to help consumers distinguish be-
tween fake and real.
The ethics of how data is collected in the first
place may also influence the trustworthiness
and validity of scientific research, particularly
in areas such as organ donations and medical The perceived trustworthiness of synthetic faces over real ones raises concerns about their potential use
research. In addition, employing ethicists to by malicious actors to erode trust in institutions.

ARE THERE TOOLS TO MAKE AI ETHICAL?
As AI systems become more ad- Deepfake Detectors while maintaining a 9% false positive rate Tools for Exposing Deepfakes
vanced, making sure they are ethi- AI now enables creating highly realistic fake on human writing. These tools are essential Hyper-realistic deepfakes pose significant
media called deepfakes—bogus video, au- in contexts where distinguishing between security risks. Researchers at Washington
cally deployed becomes increasingly
dio, and text that seem real. They can spread human and machine authorship is critical, University created a tool called AntiFake, which
important. For instance, AI can now
misinformation by fabricating scenes or such as in academic integrity, journalism, can add a digital watermark to content that
generate hyper-realistic deepfake putting words in people’s mouths. Research- and legal documentation. proactively prevents the cloning of voices and
media that now passes the uncanny ers are developing protections against their faces. Intel’s FakeCatcher and Sentinel use
Tools for Detecting Copyright Violations in
valley. This tech could let bad actors misuse. Tools like AntiFake use imperceptible AI Outputs deep learning to analyze media content, catch-
impersonate people or spread mis- watermarks to block fake voice/face cloning With AI models capable of memorizing and ing manipulations either in real time or high-
information. AI can also be used for before it happens. Platforms including Intel’s reproducing content from their training data, lighting alteration patterns after creation. One
cheating, fraud, and hacking. In light FakeCatcher and European vendor Sentinel the risk of copyright infringement becomes a significant concern regarding many deepfake
catch manipulations in real-time using AI. significant concern. Researchers from Google, detection tools is that they demonstrate bias.
of this, companies are emerging to
As deepfakes get better and better, surpass- DeepMind, ETH Zurich, Princeton, and Univer- Studies have uncovered significant dispar-
create tools to combat this behav- ing the “uncanny valley,” so does the market ities in the error rates of deepfake detection
sity of California, Berkeley have demonstrated
ior. New tools can detect deepfakes, opportunity for exposing them. Expect to see algorithms across different racial groups. In
this with the Stable Diffusion model, which
expose fraudulent AI activities, and more investment in this space. can emit memorized images, including those one study, the difference in accuracy reached
implement preventative measures with trademarked company logos. To combat as high as 10.7%. This bias could lead to severe
Tools for Identifying AI-Generated Writing implications, such as genuine images of cer-
against misuse. this, watermarking techniques are being de-
AI is good at writing like a human. That means tain racial groups being mistakenly identified
veloped. For instance, the University of Mary-
we need tools that can distinguish between as fakes or, conversely, manipulated images
land proposes a technique for watermarking
human and AI-written content. DetectGPT is being wrongly accepted as authentic. Dr. Siwei
language model outputs, making synthetic
one such tool, offering over 95% accuracy in Lyu and a team at the University of Buffalo
text algorithmically identifiable. Google Deep-
identifying whether a passage is written by a have developed what are considered to be the
Mind’s SynthID tool embeds digital water-
human or an AI system like GPT-3. Similarly, first deepfake detection algorithms specifical-
marks directly into image pixels, enabling the
OpenAI itself has released a classifier that ly designed to mitigate bias. Their approach
identification of AI-generated images while
flags AI-generated text 26% of the time, involves two machine learning methods: one
remaining invisible to the human eye.

ARE THERE TOOLS TO MAKE AI ETHICAL?
that makes algorithms aware of demographic Researchers from the University of Chicago Meanwhile, Anthropic has unveiled its Re-
factors and another that works to blind them. have created a program, Fawkes, that adds sponsible Scaling Policy, which includes a
These methods have successfully reduced dis- extra pixels to images to cause facial rec- detailed list of safety commitments based on
parities in accuracy across different races and ognition apps to misclassify faces. Taking risk assessments and incorporates pauses in
genders. Notably, this achievement was not at this principle a step further, Israeli company development if safety measures fail to match
the expense of overall accuracy; in some cases, Adversa AI adds noise, or small alterations, the pace of capability advancements. The
accuracy was even enhanced. By focusing to photos of faces, causing algorithms to policy encompasses several key components,
on the fairness of the algorithms, Lyu’s work detect a different face than what is visible to including internal access controls, adver-
marks a significant step toward creating more the naked eye. The algorithm is successful at sarial testing (red-teaming), evaluations by
equitable and reliable deepfake detection imperceptibly changing an individual’s image independent third parties, and graded access
technologies, ensuring accuracy is indepen- to someone else of their choosing. based on different AI Safety Levels.
dent of factors like race or gender.
Tools to Combat Broadly Malicious AI
Tools to Thwart Recognition Systems Behavior
As facial recognition becomes ubiquitous, var- Research labs around the world are actively
ious groups want to limit the technology’s ef- working to build practical safeguards against
fectiveness to protect privacy. While methods malicious AI behavior. DeepMind has intro-
of confusing or obscuring facial recognition duced a comprehensive toolkit and work-
systems are not always feasible, researchers flow designed to enhance the evaluation of
are trying to confuse online applications that standard models that can identify when AI
scrape and collect images used as inputs for is misbehaving according to human ethical
training facial recognition engines in order to standards. This approach specifically focus-
Researchers are working on ways to alter facial im-
develop a form of camouflage, which consumes on identifying and assessing potentially
ages so facial recognition systems misidentify the
ers may someday demand. hazardous capabilities, like cyber-offense and
faces, potentially allowing people to avoid identifi-
self-replication, as well as the likelihood of
cation by these surveillance technologies.
causing harm.

DOES AI INFRINGE ON PRIVACY?

HOW SHOULD WE THINK ABOUT CUSTOMER DATA AND AI APPLICATIONS?
AI enables new forms of pervasive Increased Used of Ambient Surveillance ogy by law enforcement, doesn’t apply to worker productivity by measuring what’s
surveillance that could threaten per- What happens behind closed doors may not private companies. called “time off task,” which is any time when
be secret for long, and executives should a worker isn’t actively processing products.
sonal privacy across several domains. Teleperformance, a French-based company
beware of new ambient surveillance meth- South Korean e-commerce giant Coupang,
Last year, facial recognition company that manages outsourced call center work
ods. Scientists at MIT discovered how to use which has pledged to become the “Amazon of
Clearview AI said it had run more than computer vision to track data from what
for many Fortune 50 companies, uses cam- Korea,” uses similar surveillance tactics.
1 million searches for police in the US. eras and AI to monitor its teams. It flags em-
they call “accidental cameras.” Windows,
Somewhat less obviously, ambient ployees as idle when it detects they haven’t The industry has also continued to evolve as
mirrors, corners, houseplants, and other
used the keyboard or mouse within a speci- it offers more AI-based analysis of workers.
monitoring can now subject house- common objects can be used, along with AI,
fied time frame. Live Eye Surveillance offers Amazon is exploring using keystroke-logging
hold environments to observation. to track subtle changes in light, shadows,
a monthly subscription service that remotely software that tracks user behavior over time
Workplace analytics can track de- and vibrations. The result: We all may soon
monitors live video feeds of employees for to detect if the same person is controlling the
have X-ray vision capabilities—which may
tailed employee behaviors and pro- companies such as 7-Eleven, Dairy Queen, worker’s account. Aware’s Spotlight software
not be great news for companies working on
ductivity. Schools can actively mon- sensitive projects. Those working in informa-
and Holiday Inn. Sneek is another example detects behavioral changes like mood, tone,
itor students through devices and of “tattleware” that captures live photos of and attitude across conversations on employ-
tion security and risk management should
platforms meant for remote educa- employees via webcams and displays them ees’ devices. Teramind offers software that
pay special attention to advances in com-
on a digital wall viewable by everyone in the will disable private conversations if it detects
tion. As private spaces face increasing puter vision.
company. Click on a photo and it instantly “inappropriate” keywords. With the top three
exposure from third-party tracking, a pulls that person into a video call with you. tools in the industry accounting for over 60%
Worker Surveillance
culture of Big Brother–like awareness of global demand, expect to see more AI-based
The rise of remote work during the pandemic The most well-known user of worker surveil-
becomes normalized, rather than surveillance that leverages the growing pool of
accelerated the surveillance of workers, and lance might be Amazon, which has installed
valuing independence and consent. will likely continue to grow as remote and
data collected by a variety of companies.
AI-enabled cameras in delivery trucks to
hybrid work models take root. The US Consti- track behavior. The company docks driver School Surveillance
tution’s Fourth Amendment, which prohibits pay if it perceives unsafe conditions such as
During the pandemic, many students were is-
unreasonable searches and seizures and distracted driving, speeding, or hard braking.
sued laptops and other devices by schools to
precludes most uses of this same technol- In its warehouses, the company monitors

DOES AI INFRINGE ON PRIVACY?

HOW SHOULD WE THINK ABOUT CUSTOMER DATA AND AI APPLICATIONS?
facilitate remote learning. They weren’t told, books without notification or consent by the
however, that these devices would open a por- student. Schools in China deploy technol-
tal into their homes that could be monitored ogy to monitor attentiveness in students.
by schools at all times of the day. In the US An algorithm called 4 Little Trees is used in
and many other countries, schools can legally Hong Kong to detect students’ emotions as
monitor students, often without disclosing they learn—by monitoring their facial expres-
what is being tracked. sions with webcams. If the system detects
a lack of focus, it nudges the student to pay
Gaggle is one company that monitors attention.
school-issued accounts and uses AI to track
online behavior of students across services
like email and chat tools. In 2020, the Minne-
apolis school district signed a contract with
the company to monitor its students through
2023. A school district in California contract-
ed with Securly to monitor students in real
time, looking for prohibited behaviors such
as having too many browser tabs open. The
software enables teachers to close tabs for
any students they believe are “off task.”
Philadelphia and Chicago schools deployed

GoGuardian software on district-issued
Chromebooks. A vulnerability in the software
allowed teachers to start virtual sessions AI introduces pervasive surveillance capabilities, jeopardizing personal privacy in schools, workplaces, and
that enabled webcams on those Chrome- public spaces. Society appears to be prioritizing convenience over privacy, accepting significant trade-offs.

IS THERE A FEASIBLE SOLUTION TO BIAS?
Seemingly the moment OpenAI’s Addressing Political Bias and Joseph Stiglitz. Conversely, the right-wing
ChatGPT went public, there were In 2023, many conservatives raised con- responses were shaped using content from out-
cerns about ChatGPT’s political bias, sharing lets such as National Review and The American
multiple accounts of the system
screenshots of ChatGPT’s left-leaning re- Conservative, and writers like Roger Scruton
displaying racism, ageism, gender The future of AI should be a and Thomas Sowell.
sponses. OpenAI responded with a detailed
bias, and political bias. But it’s not mirror to society. It must be blog post explaining its moderation approach,
just ChatGPT—many AI systems have Doubts regarding ChatGPT’s ability to avoid
shaped by a diverse range and CEO Sam Altman hinted at future pos-
bias persist. A new research paper claims to
been revealed to contain bias—much sibilities for users to fine-tune ChatGPT
of which can be attributed to the
of voices, not just those of iterations within certain broad guidelines,
find substantial evidence of systematic po-
technologists. litical bias in ChatGPT, favoring Democrats in
data that the systems were trained potentially sidestepping some contentious
the US, Lula in Brazil, and the Labour Party in
on. Given AI’s expanding integration value judgments. Elon Musk, responding
—Meredith Whittaker, the UK. The paper analyzed ChatGPT’s respons-
to these critiques about OpenAI’s political
into sensitive domains like finance cofounder of the AI Now Institute es to statements from the Political Compass
correctness, launched a new venture, called
and health care, failing to address its TruthGPT, aimed at exploring “deeper truths
test, concluding that it aligns more with liberal
potential biases risks compounding parties internationally. However, the study’s
about the universe.” Separately, in an effort to
real-world discrimination through methodology and findings are not without
make a point about biased AI, David Rozado,
criticism. Some researchers argue that the way
algorithmic means. a data scientist from New Zealand, created
ChatGPT was tested doesn’t reflect typical user
DepolarizingGPT. This AI chatbot generates
interactions and may not accurately represent
three types of responses for each prompt:
the AI’s behavior. Additionally, a data scientist,
left-wing, right-wing, and a neutral or inte-
Colin Fraser, discovered that reversing the order
grating perspective. To achieve this, Rozado
of parties mentioned in prompts resulted in op-
fine-tuned the chatbot using content under
posite biases, suggesting potential flaws in the
fair-use provisions from various sources. For
study. These findings illustrate the complexi-
the left-wing responses, he used material
ties in assessing AI bias and the need for great-
from publications like The Atlantic and The
er transparency from developers like OpenAI.
New Yorker, and authors like Bill McKibben

IS THERE A FEASIBLE SOLUTION TO BIAS?

Addressing Race and Gender Bias Hispanic women experiencing the highest
There are significant challenges related to rate of false positives and Asian women the
race and gender bias in AI. A notable instance most false negatives.
occurred in December 2022, when Steven T.
To quantify bias, another team from Baskin
Piantadosi of University of California, Berkeley
Engineering at University of California, Santa
revealed a bias in ChatGPT’s programming,
Cruz, led by Assistant Professor Xin (Eric)
which incorrectly associated scientific profi-
Wang, developed a tool called the Text to
ciency with being white or Asian male. OpenAI
Image Association Test. It quantifies bias in
quickly addressed this issue, programming
text-to-image (T2I) AI models like Stable Dif-
ChatGPT to reject the notion that race or gen-
fusion, by measuring the variance in images
der should influence perceptions of scientific
generated from neutral versus gender-spe-
ability. However, this incident underscores a
cific prompts. The findings indicate that
broader, long-standing problem of bias within
such state-of-the-art models not only reflect
AI systems.
but can also amplify existing human biases.
In another study, researchers at the University Such analysis represents crucial progress
of Florida examined racial bias in machine toward accountability, but much work re-
learning algorithms used for diagnosing bac- mains to ensure AI equitability.
terial vaginosis (BV), a common infection in
women of reproductive age. The study, led by
faculty members Fang and Ivana Parker, ana-
lyzed data from 400 women across four eth-
After ChatGPT launched in 2022, researchers quickly discovered biases in its programming that linked sci-
nic groups—white, Black, Asian, and Hispanic.
entific proficiency to white or Asian male gender and race, underscoring the broader issue of unfair biases
They found that the accuracy of BV diagnosis
that can become ingrained in AI systems. To address this, developers are proactively testing models for
varied significantly among these groups, with
biases and making concerted efforts to train more equitable, inclusive AI.

WHAT SECURITY ISSUES SHOULD WE PREPARE FOR?
AI introduces security threats of unprecedented complexity due to its ability to Cyberthreats Adversarial Attacks
learn and adapt, making traditional security measures less effective. Its inte- The National Cyber Security Centre (NCSC) Recent studies highlight a significant vulner-
gration across critical infrastructure and sensitive systems means that AI-driv- released an assessment in 2023 on the near- ability in AI to adversarial attacks, revealing
term impact of AI on cyberthreats. The NCSC that these systems can be more easily manip-
en attacks can have far-reaching and unpredictable consequences. Additionally,
assessment delves into how AI will likely ulated to make incorrect decisions than pre-
the sophistication of AI enables the creation of highly targeted and convincing enhance the volume and severity of cyberat- viously understood. These adversarial attacks
cyberattacks, such as deepfakes and advanced phishing attempts, challenging tacks in the next two years, mainly through involve deliberate tampering with the data
our ability to distinguish between genuine and malicious communications. For the evolution of existing tactics. AI is being input into AI systems, causing them to misin-
example, recently, advanced language models have grown so smart that they used by various cyberthreat actors, includ- terpret information or act in unintended ways.
can now use tools, read documents, and even call on themselves, acting inde- ing state and non-state entities, to varying For instance, specific patterns or objects, like
pendently. If AI models can hack websites on their own by finding and exploit- degrees. The report suggests that AI will certain stickers on a stop sign, can trick an
significantly improve capabilities in areas AI in autonomous vehicles into not recogniz-
ing weaknesses without being taught specific vulnerabilities, what does that
like reconnaissance and social engineering, ing the sign. Similarly, alterations in medical
mean for the future of cybersecurity resilience? making them more efficient and harder to imaging data could lead an AI to diagnose
detect. However, more sophisticated AI uses incorrectly.
in cyber operations will likely remain limit-
This issue was the focus of a study by Tian-
ed to actors with substantial resources and
expertise in AI and cyber technologies. The fu Wu and his team at North Carolina State
AI lowers the barrier for novice cyber criminals, hackers- University, which examined the prevalence
assessment concludes that AI’s impact on
for-hire and hacktivists to carry out effective access and cyberthreats is uneven and depends on the of such vulnerabilities in AI deep neural
networks. Their findings suggest that these
information gathering operations. This enhanced access capability and intent of the threat actors.
adversarial vulnerabilities are far more wide-
It also points out that the proliferation of
will likely contribute to the global ransomware threat over AI-enabled cyber tools in criminal and com- spread than previously recognized, posing
the next two years. mercial markets is likely to further enhance a significant challenge to the reliability and
safety of AI applications. In a separate study
these capabilities.
—U.K. National Cyber Security Centre January 2024 Assessment by researchers at Carnegie Mellon University,

the vulnerability of AI chatbots to adversar- data into the training set. This can skew drawing into a cubist style, for example. This it could correctly state that the Earth is not
ial attacks was demonstrated. By modifying the AI’s learning process, aligning it with integration allows artists to choose between flat when asked directly, but show inconsis-
prompts with specific strings of text, which the attacker’s goals, potentially leading to masking their style or actively using the tency in its responses. Researchers expressed
may appear nonsensical but hold particular biased outcomes, data breaches, or simply data-poisoning feature. concern over these findings, highlighting the
significance for AI models trained on exten- inaccurate AI outputs. To illustrate, consider danger of AI models like GPT-3 spreading mis-
sive web data, the researchers could bypass the cost implications: Training a complex AI AI Lowers the Barrier to Misinformation information, especially as they become more
the safeguards designed to prevent chatbots model like GPT-3 can cost around $17 mil- AI has lowered the bar to produce and dis- common in use.
from generating inappropriate content. This lion. If its training data were compromised, tribute misinformation. An analysis by News-
This is particularly concerning as we approach
approach effectively “unshackled” the AI, restarting the process could lead to substan- Guard, a Microsoft tool that shows trust
the 2024 US presidential election, with mis-
making it possible for chatbots like ChatGPT, tial financial losses. ratings for over 7,500 news and informa-
information experts raising flags about the
Google’s Bard, and Claude from Anthropic to tion websites, found that websites hosting
On the flip side, data poisoning can also potential impacts on democratic process-
respond to otherwise restricted or harmful AI-generated bogus reporting have ballooned
serve as a defensive mechanism. A novel tool es. Ominous previews have already played
queries. The success of these attacks across over 1,000% in the past year, mushrooming
named Nightshade exemplifies this dual out abroad. Shortly before a crucial national
multiple popular AI chatbots suggests a from 49 to over 600 outlets. While fabrica-
nature. Designed to protect artists’ intel- election in Slovakia, a controversial audio clip
deeper, more systemic weakness in the most tion used to require armies of workers or
lectual property, Nightshade subtly alters spread on social media, purporting to feature
advanced AI systems, challenging the deploy- advanced intelligence agencies, AI democ-
digital artwork’s pixels. When AI models use Michal Šimečka of the Progressive party dis-
ment and safe use of these technologies. ratizes deception. Now a lone teenager can
this “poisoned” art for training, their ability cussing a vote-rigging plan. Another incident
concoct sites and stories that appear au-
Data Poisoning: A Double-Edged Sword to accurately interpret images is compro- involved a fake recording of the UK Labour
thentic. And generative AI allows customiz-
mised, leading to erroneous outputs, such Party leader verbally attacking a staffer. Both
Data poisoning attacks represent a signifi- ing fakery to particular targets and contexts
as mistaking a car for a cow. This tool is part recordings, which seemed authentic, were
cant threat to AI systems, where malicious with minimal effort. A study by the University
of a broader strategy for artists to safeguard later exposed by fact-checkers as AI-gener-
actors deliberately manipulate the training of Waterloo found that an early version of
their work in an unregulated landscape. Art- ated fakes, highlighting the growing issue of
data to mislead the AI into making incorrect ChatGPT, when tested on different types of
ists can use Nightshade via Glaze, another AI-manipulated audio in spreading misinfor-
or harmful decisions. These attackers exploit statements including facts and misconcep-
tool from the same creators, which masks mation.
vulnerabilities, such as embedding harmful tions, often made errors, contradicted itself,
an artist’s style—transforming a realistic
content within files, to introduce misleading and repeated false information. For example,


Privacy Risks in Behavioral Biometrics conscious of ourselves not only challenges
Behavioral biometrics, which employs ma- our concept of privacy but also highlights
chine learning to analyze a vast array of how these patterns, once considered person-
biometric data points, raises significant pri- al and private, can become accessible and
vacy concerns. By quantifying subtle aspects potentially misused. This duality presents a
of our behavior, such as the force used on critical challenge: balancing the innovative
touchscreens, the distinct way we tap letters applications of behavioral biometrics against
like “Cs” and “Vs,” or our unique patterns the imperative to protect individual privacy
when using a physical keyboard, these tools and ensure the security of personal data.
can reveal intricate details about our iden-
tities, thoughts, and future actions. While
the technology offers potential benefits like
enhancing security and possibly eliminating
the need for passwords by identifying indi-
viduals through their typing patterns, it also
introduces substantial risks.
The very aspect that makes behavioral bio-

metrics appealing—its ability to authenti-
cate a user based on nuanced behavioral
traits—also makes it a privacy concern. If our
behavioral patterns can be so precisely mon-
itored and analyzed, they can be replicated
or exploited, leading to new forms of security
vulnerabilities. The notion that machines can AI can track unconscious patterns in human behaviors like typing cadence and keyboard pressure to de-
rive insights about inner emotional states without explicit user permission.
detect and record behaviors we’re not even

WHAT DOES AI HAVE TO DO WITH ESG?
AI operations, particularly those involving deep learning and complex model New Architectures to Make AI Workloads like conventional computers, neuromorphic
More Efficient
training, are significantly more computationally intensive than traditional com- processors like Intel’s Loihi store memory
As AI models become more complex and within computation. Specializing in sensory
puting tasks. This intensity stems from the need to process vast amounts of
larger, consuming a greater share of our processing, these chips already achieve 1,000x
data and perform countless calculations rapidly to train models, recognize pat- computing resources, their energy usage also higher efficiency than traditional hardware for
terns, and make decisions. Consequently, AI demands considerably more energy escalates. One promising approach to make tasks like gesture and sound recognition.
to sustain these operations, as the intricate algorithms and large-scale data AI-intense compute more energy efficient is
processing require substantial computational resources, leading to higher ener- by using photonic AI chips, which harness In a groundbreaking approach, researchers
light rather than electricity for orders-of-mag- envision biocomputers powered by networked
gy consumption compared to conventional computing workloads. On the other
nitude better efficiency at matrix multiplica- human brain organoids—essentially mini-
hand, AI is also helping solve environmental issues. A Canadian startup, Rail- brains grown from stem cells. “Organoid
tions—a core operation for deep learning. A
Vision Analytics, developed AI software that helps train engineers drive more intelligence” holds significant potential for
Stanford team recently achieved a milestone
efficiently, potentially saving significant amounts of diesel fuel and reducing by training an optical neural network chip to augmenting computing capabilities while
the rail industry’s carbon emissions. This technology, which is like Google Maps label data points with 98% accuracy. For the concurrently addressing the escalating energy
but for trains, advises engineers on when to speed up or stay idle, optimizing first time, their photonic processor enabled consumption demands driven by advance-
fuel use and contributing to a potential annual reduction of over 20,000 tons light to flow bidirectionally to implement the ments in artificial intelligence and supercom-
backpropagation algorithms vital for training. puting (see the Computing report for more
of carbon emissions if widely adopted, equivalent to removing more than 4,000
While refinements remain, this demonstrates information on organoid intelligence). Despite
cars off the road each year. traditional computers’ ability to process
the promise of optical computing to slash
the carbon footprint of AI workloads. calculations at speeds far surpassing human
capabilities, human brains demonstrate supe-
Neuromorphic chips offer another model of rior performance in complex decision-making
efficient AI hardware, taking inspiration from tasks, such as differentiating between a dog
the human brain’s simultaneously distrib- and a cat. Running AI on organoids could be
uted storing and processing of information. the key to achieving human-like complex deci-
Rather than shuttling data back and forth sion-making in an energy-efficient manner.

WHAT DOES AI HAVE TO DO WITH ESG?

A Nuclear Renaissance for AI Workloads Environmental AI viruses and their animal hosts. In a practical
The monumental computational require- AI presents a dual-edged sword in its impact demonstration of AI’s environmental appli-
ments of advancing AI could catalyze a on the environment, with its capabilities ex- cations, a research team from the University
nuclear power renaissance. Microsoft is tending to both contributing to and alleviat- of Waterloo has developed an AI tool, Plas-
exploring the use of next-generation small ing climate change. David Rolnick from Mc- ticNet, to identify microplastics with unprec-
modular nuclear reactors (SMRs) to power its Gill University and Mila—Quebec AI Institute, edented speed and accuracy. This technol-
data centers and AI operations. SMRs promise notes that while AI’s energy consumption ogy is particularly crucial for mitigating the
cheaper, faster modular construction com- and the promotion of consumerism through environmental and health hazards posed by
pared to traditional nuclear plants, which are AI-based advertising may exacerbate climate microplastics, commonly found in food and
often over-budget and delayed. Microsoft’s challenges, it also offers solutions for envi- water sources. By enhancing the efficiency
approach was hinted at further in the fact ronmental conservation. For instance, AI is of identifying these pollutants, PlasticNet
that they already have a deal to buy Clean being utilized to monitor and curb deforesta- supports wastewater treatment and food
Energy Credits from Ontario Power Genera- tion effectively. production industries in making informed
tion, which is on track to be the first utility to decisions to protect the environment and
A recent paper from the Cary Institute of public health.
deploy an SMR in North America. Companies
Ecosystem Studies highlights how princi-
like Rolls-Royce, Last Energy, NuScale, Oklo,
ples from ecology could inspire a new wave
and TerraPower (backed by Bill Gates) are also
developing various SMR models. Similarly, of AI development. This synergy between AI
Kärnfull Next in Sweden plans to use SMRs to and ecology is seen as a pathway to address
power data centers. The pivot toward nuclear pressing global issues like disease out-
energy, particularly next-generation SMRs, is breaks, biodiversity loss, and the repercus-
While AI’s computational demands pose sustain-
a strategic response to the dual challenges of sions of climate change. AI’s application in
ability challenges, it can also enable climate miti-
ecology is already proving beneficial, aiding
meeting the high energy demands of AI and gation - models can guide efficient resource usage,
ecologists in detecting patterns within
achieving climate goals. accelerate green tech R&D, and predict environ-
vast data sets to make precise predictions, mental impact.
like identifying potential human-infecting

POLICY AND
REGULATIONS

HOW DOES GEOPOLITICS FACTOR INTO THE DEVELOPMENT OF AI,

AND IS THERE REALLY A NEW COLD WAR?
Countries are increasingly nationalis- AI Nationalism sarial states invest heavily to replace blocked
tic about advancing domestic AI capa- Governments are racing to establish national supplies. China has earmarked hundreds of
AI champions and reduce reliance on foreign billions to develop domestic chip fabrication
bilities, with major investments and
technology. After high-profile chatbot debuts immune to US sanctions. The Chinese gov-
restrictions aimed at getting an edge, After Nagasaki and Hiroshima, ernment has invested heavily in replicating
like ChatGPT spawned in the US, 2023 wit-
even as collaboration fractures. This it took 18 years to get to a nessed nations worldwide scramble to nur- the chip supply chain domestically, aiming to
extends into military contexts, where
treaty over test bans and ture domestic AI capabilities, allocating tens insulate itself from Western sanctions. See “The
AI drives rapid innovations in areas of billions in funding. France unveiled sub- AI-Driven Chip War” for more.
like weapons systems, wargaming,
things like that. We don’t have stantial funding for startup Mistral. India’s
that kind of time today.” China also approaches AI on ideological
and cyber operations—innovations Krutrim launched the country’s first multi-
grounds. The country mandated that AI align
dual in nature for both defense and lingual model. Abu Dhabi commercialized its
—former Google CEO Eric Schmidt, with the “core values of socialism,” effectively
Falcon system. Beyond economic impacts,
potential offense. The combination of on the urgency to create guardrails for AI. limiting the influence of Western-developed
concerns mix technological prestige with na-
deteriorating cooperation and uncon- tional security and ideological control. The US
AI systems within its borders. This stance has
trolled AI militarization risks fueling propelled Chinese tech giants like Alibaba
and China are at the forefront of this tug-of-
a dangerous tech-centric arms race. and Baidu to develop their own generative
war, each pledging billions toward AI invest-
AI tools, despite challenges in matching the
Unless cooperative norms are estab- ments. While US companies are pioneering
impact of their Western counterparts. Russia
lished, AI may drive global strategic the most advanced LLMs, the US government
also perceives American AI advancements as
realignments as impactful as 20th is concentrating resources on growing home-
a cultural and ethical threat, with President
made chip capabilities, aiming to lessen reli-
century nuclear and space races. Vladimir Putin highlighting the dangers posed
ance on imports critical for national security.
by Western LLMs to Russian “traditional val-
Concurrently, the US has imposed stringent
ues.” This reflects a broader concern over AI’s
export controls to limit the dissemination of
potential to shape cultural and ethical norms,
advanced AI technology to rivals like China
prompting Russia to explore the development
and Russia. With Western companies barred
of homegrown AI solutions.
from exporting cutting-edge AI chips, adver-

HOW DOES GEOPOLITICS FACTOR INTO THE DEVELOPMENT OF AI,

AND IS THERE REALLY A NEW COLD WAR?
The AI-Driven Chip War The intensification of the Chip War is leading
Rising tensions between the US and China to a bifurcation in the AI chip market, with
are catalyzing a supply chain schism for the potential long-term implications for global
AI chips critical to national competitiveness. technological advancement and cooperation.
This divide has been exacerbated by strategic This divergence not only underscores the
moves such as the CHIPS Act and increasingly strategic importance of semiconductors in
stringent export controls, which have partic- national security and AI development but
ularly targeted the semiconductor sector—a also hints at the emergence of distinct tech-
vital component of AI development. Efforts by nological spheres, each aligned with diver-
companies like Nvidia to adapt by launching gent national values and priorities.
China-specific chips were thwarted by new
US restrictions, leading Chinese companies
to turn to domestic suppliers such as Huawei.
Additionally, Dutch firm ASML canceled ship-
ments of advanced semiconductor manufac-
turing equipment to China under US pressure,
highlighting efforts to curb China’s access
to crucial AI development technologies. The
standoff has prompted China to explore
alternatives like RISC-V, an open-source chip
architecture, as a means to bypass interna-
tional restrictions. This move has sparked
debate in the US about the potential risks
of technology transfer and the feasibility of The chip war could force a seismic restructuring of international manufacturing supply chains, trade flows,
restricting contributions to RISC-V due to its and technology innovation networks.
global, royalty-free nature.

COULD AI BE INVOLVED IN—OR CAUSE—A HOT WAR?
Advancements in artificial intelli- Autonomous Weapons Policies members while outlining a roadmap for Japan and Taiwan successfully defeated a
gence are reshaping modern warfare The US Department of Defense recently up- adoption. Additionally, the First Committee conventional amphibious invasion by China.
dated its guidance on autonomy in weapons of the UN General Assembly adopted a draft While Taiwan remained autonomous in the
in unprecedented and concerning
systems. The original 2012 policy, and a 2017 resolution in 2023 calling for the UN secre- simulation, its economy was devastated and
ways. Militaries worldwide are explor-
update, did not explicitly mention AI. The tary-general to conduct a comprehensive the US lost hundreds of aircraft and tens of
ing how to best leverage AI for tactical DOD updated its AWS definition by removing study of lethal autonomous weapons. The thousands of lives––while the Chinese Com-
advantages, including through auton- references to a “human operator” and re- committee instructed the secretary-general munist Party never really destabilized. Games
omous weapons systems, wargaming placing it with simply “operator,” a subtle yet to consult member states and civil society that use real-world data to run simulations are
simulations, and automated hacking notable shift clearing the way for future sys- on addressing humanitarian, legal, security, augmenting the work of military strategists,
tools. However, these technologies tems with decreased human oversight. This technological, and ethical concerns related so that leaders can validate or revise their pos-
new directive is aimed at helping to clarify to autonomous weapons. tures on deterrence, invasion, and defense.
raise pressing ethical issues and
the process for developing autonomous
could dangerously escalate conflicts. Simulating Warfare AI Used to Guide Military Strikes
or semi-autonomous weapons systems.
The complex tradeoffs surrounding Previous policies, such as the Ethical Prin- Given the rising tensions between the US In 2021, the US military said that it had started
AI and defense boil down to a central ciples for Artificial Intelligence (2020) and and China over Taiwan, several groups are using AI to guide its airstrikes, deploying algo-
tension: harnessing potential benefits Responsible Artificial Intelligence Strategy building AI-powered simulation tools to war- rithms to a live operational kill chain. The kill
to national security versus controlling and Implementation Pathway (2021), were game a future conflict. In China, the People’s chain is a process of gathering intelligence,
for geopolitical risks. intended to guide decision making for the Liberation Army has been using AI simula- performing analysis, weighing risks, and
development and deployment of AI within tion tools to prepare for military operations deploying weapons to destroy a target. Using a
the military. against Taiwan. modified process, an AI system was deployed
into the Air Force Distributed Common Ground
The policy change comes on the heels of The Center for Strategic and International, System to analyze troves of intelligence, which
other recent government actions addressing a bipartisan, nonprofit policy research or- would have required a significant amount of
military AI. In late 2022, NATO released its ganization, developed a wargame involving human hours to complete. The new AI system
Autonomy Implementation Plan, arguing AI an amphibious invasion of Taiwan. After 24 cannot order a strike on its own, but it is now
systems offer clear opportunities for alliance rounds of gameplay, the US and its allies automatically identifying possible targets.


Automated Target Recognition wanted to show that smarter automated sys- tegic insights. By fusing photographs, drone
Lethal autonomous weapons systems, tems can reduce the response time—and fix footage, and overhead views, AI integrates
powered by AI, are capable of finding tar- system flaws—to just a few seconds. Spot- distinct perspectives into a unified assess-
gets autonomously and making decisions ting and fixing critical vulnerabilities is a ment of terrain and enemy movements.
to complete a mission. In 2022, a lieutenant task that might take a human hacker sever-
al months or even years to complete, and yet This augmented analytics empowers a new
colonel in the Ukrainian military said that he
the machine that won the Grand Challenge paradigm of cost-effective warfare centered
and a group called Aerorozvidka had devel-
did it in just a fraction of that time. around drones. Affordable models either
oped special drones that make use of auto-
commercially sourced or improvised as
mated target recognition. While it’s unclear
The winner became the first nonhuman enti- DIY drones generate valuable intelligence
whether Aerorozvidka actually carried out
ty to earn the DEF CON’s Black Badge, which rivaling America’s far more expensive Reaper
test missions, the fact remains that machine
is the hacking community’s equivalent of an and Predator UAVs. Tight integration with
learning–based vision for automated target
Oscar. Very soon, malicious actors will create cutting-edge systems like Delta further
recognition already exists. In response, 70
autonomous systems capable of automat- multiplies impact. After proving effective in
nations delivered a joint statement at the UN
ically learning new environments, exposing 2022 trials, Ukraine greenlit Delta’s full-scale
General Assembly calling for a ban on autono-
vulnerabilities and flaws, and then exploit- February deployment. Pulling sensor, aerial,
mous weapons––but little progress has been
ing them for gain—or whatever the stated and ground reports into a consolidated data
made in the months since.
objective, which could simply be generalized lake, this cloud-based architecture furnishes
Automating Offensive Attacks Using AI mayhem. commanders with an integrated common
operating picture for tactical decisions.
Thanks to advancements in AI, one of the big AI-Assisted Situational Awareness
trends in security is automated hacking— in Algorithmic Warfighting AI is enabling the development of weapons that
Ukraine has become a test bed for modern
short, software that’s built to out-hack the can select targets and attack on their own. The UN
AI-enabled battlefield awareness. Geospa- Future wars could be fought entirely in code,
human hackers. DARPA launched a Cyber General Assembly has called for banning this type
tial intelligence leverages neural networks using data and algorithms as powerful
Grand Challenge project in 2016, with a mis- of autonomous attack technology, but so far there
to combine satellite imagery, social media weapons. The current global order is being
sion to design computer systems capable of has been no ban put in place.
posts, and other open-source data into stra- shaped by artificial intelligence, and the
beating hackers at their own game. DARPA

same countries leading the world in AI re- Mandating Ethics Guidelines for Tech
Contractors
search—the US, China, Israel, France, Russia,
the UK, and South Korea—are also developing Project Maven was developed to enlist AI to
weapons systems that include at least some analyze surveillance video. Initially, Google
autonomous functionality. was the DOD’s vendor, but when employees
found out they’d been working on a military
In 2020, the US Air Force successfully flew project, thousands protested. It wasn’t the
an AI copilot on a U-2 spy plane in California, first time tech contractors had lost trust in
marking the first time in the history of the the government.
DOD that an AI algorithm trained to execute
specific in-flight tasks was deployed. With As a result, the Defense Innovation Unit is
the call sign ARTUµ, it was the mission com- enforcing “responsible artificial intelligence”
mander—though the flight was just practice. guidelines that vendors must adopt when
building AI systems, models, or applications
Future Today Institute analysis shows that the for the DOD. The guidelines offer specific
future of warfare encompasses more than tra- instructions that must be followed during
ditional weapons. Using AI techniques, a mil- planning, development, and deployment,
itary can “win” by destabilizing an economy which include provisions for risk assess-
rather than demolishing countrysides and city ment. This represents a longer-term trend:
centers. From that perspective, China’s unified government agencies requiring transparency
march to advance AI puts the emerging super- in AI projects.
power dangerously far ahead of the West.
The future of warfare may largely involve fighting via cyberattacks powered by AI systems rather than con-
ventional physical weapons. Militaries have started using AI as co-pilots in spy planes and drones, pointing
to increased AI integration in defense.

REGIONAL
APPROACHES

COUNTRIES TRY TO REGULATE AI, BUT PLANS DIVERGE
Governments worldwide are trying legislative frameworks, but unlike obtain licenses before exporting cer- major players standardizing elements
to balance maximizing AI’s benefits the EU, the frameworks are centered tain technologies to these entities, of higher-bar AI governance models
with mitigating its risks by establish- on enforcing “socialist core values” aiming to address national securi- like the EU’s for consistency. The lack
ing regulatory frameworks. So far, 31 in AI. Brazil’s draft AI policies pri- ty concerns without automatically of alignment across the proliferating
countries have passed AI regulations oritize user rights and risk assess- imposing a full embargo, reflecting patchwork of national and regional AI
and 13 more are debating AI laws. ments, differing from Israel’s model a significant effort to regulate the laws risks hampering innovation and
There are significant divergences underscoring responsible innovation flow of sensitive technologies to global collaboration. But ironing out
between each country’s distinct ap- and sector-specific oversight. The organizations implicated in uneth- conflicts poses immense challenges
proach to regulating the technology. UAE’s national strategy concentrates ical practices. The impact on these given different priorities surrounding
Some nations, like Israel, Japan, and heavily on expanding AI integration Chinese companies and China’s AI development versus human rights
Australia, have focused on revising rather than regulation. industry could be disastrous, de- and ethics.
existing laws to facilitate AI develop- pending on enforcement measures
On October 9, 2023, the US Bureau
ment, while others, like the UAE, are and these companies’ reliance on
of Industry and Security of the De-
crafting broad national AI strategies US technology, worsening US-China
partment of Commerce added 28
with minimal regulatory emphasis. relations.
Chinese entities, including eight
Countries, like Russia, Iran, North
leading technology companies, to These complex tensions parallel
Korea, Syria, and Iraq, have opted to
its entity list for their involvement past situations like GDPR in Europe,
outright ban specific services like
in human rights violations against where large multinational compa-
ChatGPT. The EU’s AI Act categorizes
Uighur Muslims in Xinjiang, a move nies often end up defaulting to the
systems by risk levels and restricts
that China condemned as inter- most stringent regulations globally
the highest risk applications. Like the
ference in its internal affairs. This even if not universally binding. This
EU, China has introduced AI-specific
listing requires US companies to scenario could plausibly unfold with

HOW IS THE US SPECIFICALLY REGULATING AI?
The explosion of AI technologies is no clear enforcement mechanism society. State laws vary, focusing on A Patchwork Approach
leading to both fascination and con- in place to check for compliance. consumer data privacy, combating In the US, the approach to regulating AI
cern among federal legislators, who Meanwhile, Congress is deliberating AI-driven discrimination, especially amounts to a diverse array of regulations that
vary by state and sector, creating a patchwork
are now exploring regulatory respons- how to approach AI’s dual-edged in hiring practices, and address-
framework rather than a unified national
es without a clear consensus. Last sword of opportunities and challenging the manipulation of media in strategy. This decentralized approach results
October, the Biden administration ises, as it looks to local legislatures elections, with some states already in differing standards and guidelines across
sued an executive order to ensure the for precedents. So far, more than 30 implementing or proposing legisla- jurisdictions, complicating compliance for
safe and trustworthy development states have enacted laws address- tion to restrict deceptive AI-generat- organizations operating in multiple states and
and use of AI, covering a wide range ing AI in diverse ways, from specific ed content. The US will likely adopt sectors within the AI landscape. Consider the
of AI systems beyond just generative policy concerns to establishing bod- a bottom-up patchwork quilt of AI current landscape of proposals and policies
below.
AI and neural networks, affecting ies for studying AI’s impact. Senate regulations instead of one sweeping
organizations across all economic Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and law, like the EU’s AI Act. The US gov- Bias
sectors. Going forward, the National others have emphasized the need ernment will likely boost spending The Algorithmic Accountability Act, a nota-
Institute of Standards and Technolo- for AI regulation through initiatives on AI and AI research, especially in ble congressional proposal, would mandate
companies to evaluate their algorithmic
gy (NIST) will play a key role in es- like the AI Insights Forum, signaling defense and intelligence, and use its
systems, including AI, for bias, effectiveness,
tablishing guidelines for AI systems, a bipartisan understanding of its buying power to shape the market.
and other factors if passed. Under the act, the
prompting organizations to assess necessity. Some lawmakers con- Federal Trade Commission would be tasked
their use of AI and their reliance on sider the European Union’s AI Act with enforcing these evaluations, with a focus
AI-enabled products and services a model for comprehensive regula- on preventing the use or sale of racially biased
from third parties, and to align their tion, suggesting that the US might algorithms. However, the specifics of the FTC’s
AI risk management frameworks with follow with a similar framework to enforcement strategy remain undefined.
NIST standards. But for now, there is manage AI’s growing influence in

Several US states and the District of Colum- Privacy Deepfakes

bia are enacting or proposing legislation to Proposals at the federal level include a The US National Defense Authorization Act
prevent AI and algorithmic decision-making complete prohibition on using personal data includes provisions that address the grow-
tools from reinforcing societal discrimi- for targeted advertising and FTC-mandated ing problem of deepfakes, requiring the
nation. Laws are being passed primarily in data minimization, restricting websites to Department of Homeland Security to issue
Democratic-led states, focusing on areas like collect only data pertinent to their specific an annual report for the next five years on
insurance, employee surveillance, and hiring functions. At the state level, at least 12 states the risks posed by deepfakes. In 2021, the US
practices. For instance, Colorado mandates have enacted regulations governing auto- Senate Committee on Homeland Security
insurers to disclose and manage risks of mated decision systems, including AI, for and Governmental Affairs voted unanimous-
algorithm use to ensure fair coverage. Mas- profiling consumers based on personal data. ly to advance the Deepfake Task Force Act,
sachusetts is considering a ban on AI-based Virginia’s 2021 Consumer Data Protection which would establish a public-private team
employee surveillance technologies. In D.C., Act is a pioneering example, mandating risk to investigate technology strategies and to
proposed laws would restrict service eligibili- assessments and consumer rights protec- develop policies that could curb risk.
ty decisions made by algorithms and require tions when entities process over 25,000
user notification about how their data is used. people’s data for profiling posing height- Numerous states, including California, Texas,
Additionally, New York City and some states ened harm risks. States are increasingly Minnesota, and Washington, have enacted
are addressing AI’s role in hiring, requiring following Virginia’s model by instituting laws, while New York, New Jersey, and Mich-
igan have proposed legislation, aimed at
bias audits and transparency in the use of au- similar regulatory frameworks surrounding
either prohibiting or requiring disclosure of
tomated decision systems. data-driven automated systems. Addition-
ally, some jurisdictions like New York City manipulated media. Many of these measures
Copyright are intended to prevent public deception The US government is concerned about the po-
are specifically restricting AI usage in hiring
The US Copyright Office has ruled that AI-gen- regarding political candidates or to influence tential misuse of deepfake technology, especially
practices through measures like bias audits with elections approaching, which is why the latest
erated content typically doesn’t qualify for and candidate notifications when screening election outcomes.
National Defense Authorization Act includes new
copyright protection as it’s not human-creat- algorithms are deployed. Misuse provisions aimed at tackling the challenges posed
ed. But this could change now that tools like
The topic of auditing misuse is also on the by increasingly realistic synthetic media.
Sora pose new threats to the film industry.

congressional agenda. Legislators like Sens. revisions focus on closing loopholes in the Agency (IAEA) to govern superintelligence research AI to enhance understanding and
Ted Budd and Ed Markey are pushing for the existing policy, further limiting China’s efforts and safe AI deployment worldwide. A assess potential impacts. While some of these
Department of Health and Human Services access to advanced AI semiconductors and 2020 law has already mandated the creation initiatives delay targeted regulation, others
to assess AI’s biological risks and develop manufacturing tools. This move strengthens of a task force to design NAIRR. have led to tangible steps. For instance, Ver-
strategies against its use in bioweapons or the US strategy to impede China’s military AI mont’s Artificial Intelligence Task Force’s anal-
However, others argue existing institutions
artificial pandemics. development. ysis resulted in the state’s Division of Artificial
could handle AI oversight without requiring Intelligence, which annually reviews AI usage
Licensing Conflicting Views About Institutional Roles new bureaucracies. Examples include gov- and its effects within state government.
The concept of licensing requirements for AI, ernment bodies like the National Institute of
Debate persists over whether new institu-
akin to the stringent regulation of food and Standards and Technology, FDA, Securities Public-Private Partnerships
tions should be formed to oversee AI devel-
pharmaceuticals, is gaining momentum. Exchange Commission, and Federal Commu-
opment and safety, or if this responsibility The abundance of AI job listings across practi-
Inspired by Andrew Tutt’s 2017 proposal, this nications Commission, as well as beefing up
should fall to existing agencies. Proponents cally every American industry signals surging
approach suggests an agency could enforce AI and tech expertise within established sci-
of new institutions argue they could have a demand for related skills. The White House
pre-market approval for algorithms in certain entific institutions such as the Department
major positive impact, just as bodies like has issued a call for AI talent to join the fed-
applications, effectively requiring a govern- of Energy, National Science Foundation, and
the National Transportation Safety Board did eral government, following President Biden’s
ment license before public deployment. Prom- NIST. Critics argue new institutions may not
for transportation safety. Suggestions for executive order for the safe, secure, and ethi-
inent figures like OpenAI’s Sam Altman, Rand be more effective than today’s agencies,
new AI oversight bodies include a Nation- cal development and use of AI. This initiative
Corp.’s Jason Matheny, and New York Universi- citing issues faced by analogous bodies like
al Algorithms Safety Board to monitor and seeks experts to help implement AI technol-
ty’s Gary Marcus have supported such licens- IAEA in comprehensively monitoring rele-
ensure safety in algorithmic and AI systems, ogies across various government sectors to
ing, drawing parallels with the Food and Drug vant technologies globally. There are also
a federally funded National Artificial Intelli- enhance services, ensure AI safety and equity,
Administration’s model. questions around feasibility of meaningfully
gence Research Resource (NAIRR) to support and maintain the country’s leadership in AI
tracking AI development as opposed to phys-
Compute and coordinate AI research, an international innovation. Many US fabs, which are funded in
ical materials.
In October 2023, the Bureau of Industry and collaborative facility modeled after CERN to part by the Chips Act, face construction delays
Security introduced updated rules to en- attract top global AI talent and focus efforts At least 12 states have passed laws man- because of a shortage of skilled workers.
hance its October 7, 2022, regulations. These on pursuing AI safely, and an organization dating government or related entities to
similar to the International Atomic Energy The US has enlisted allies like Japan, the

Netherlands, and Germany to tighten their Google, Amazon, Salesforce, and many other repair vulnerabilities in the US government’s
own export regimes. While competing nations companies are now building teams centered infrastructure, responding to the increasing
pursue more centralized strategies, the US on geopolitics and digital diplomacy. More deployment of the technology by hackers for
distinctive edge lies in decentralized AI inno- than a dozen countries are creating ambas- nefarious activities.
vation across promising startups and tech sador-like positions charged to negotiate
giants alike. with the leaders of US Big Tech companies,
with the aim of mediating disagreements,
Large companies have always lobbied to collaborating on shared interests and
influence policy and regulation. But as the developing public-private alliances. The
tech giants amass power and wealth, they are longer-term implications of corporations in-
making key decisions that impact diplomacy fluencing global politics could be profound.
and geopolitics. What if a company’s priorities differ from the
Big Tech companies are standing up depart- national priorities of its home government?
ments dedicated to geopolitics. Microsoft
National Security
President Brad Smith regularly meets with
heads of state, and in 2023 played a key role While late to consider AI as a national securi-
at the World Economic Forum’s Annual Meet- ty issue, the US is quickly playing catchup.
ing. Smith developed an international treaty The Pentagon is considering the creation
called the Digital Geneva Convention to proof an extensive network that leverages AI
tect citizens against state-sponsored cyber- along with drones and autonomous systems
attacks. Microsoft’s Digital Diplomacy Group within the upcoming two years, aimed at
actively works on a tech-focused approach to mitigating threats posed by Russia, Chi-
The Pentagon is considering plans to build an
foreign policy. The company sees corporate na and non-state actors. The White House expansive network utilizing AI and drones over the
foreign policy as good business that builds has already initiated a multimillion-dollar next two years to address threats from Russia, Chi-
trust and enables long-term planning. Meta, cybersecurity competition aimed at en- na, and non-state groups.
couraging the adoption of AI to identify and

WHAT IS CHINA DOING?
China is an undisputed global lead- force. China is producing what it China’s Expanding Market The result could be a future parallel uni-
er in AI. Under President Xi Jinping, calls “intelligentized” technologies It’s a challenging time for Chinese startups verse, in which Chinese-created AI systems
because of rising tensions with the West. are shaped both by enormous amounts of
the country has made tremendous to bolster both its economy and
Companies hoping to gain traction in Europe data and local laws. In Brazil, a generative AI
strides in many fields, but especially military.
are making efforts to cloak their origin. system might write an unfettered political
in AI. Businesses and the government Shein, the e-commerce website popular essay in Portuguese about a leader––while in
Recently, China took major steps to
have collaborated on a sweeping plan among teens, says it was “founded in L.A.,” China, that same essay would be automatical-
shape the future of AI by releasing
to make China the world’s primary but the company actually got its start in ly filtered for politically sensitive words and
its own pretrained models, and it is
AI innovation center by 2030, and Nanjing and Guangzhou by relying on the phrases. As the CCP enforces new regulations
forging ahead with its own natural region’s manufacturing centers and ample targeting AI and what the government calls
it’s making serious progress toward
language processing models, which supply chains. Or look at TikTok, which has “deep synthesis tech,” the ways in which peo-
that goal. That plan is unlikely to be
makes sense since the most popular said it’s a US-based company—while the ple experience and work alongside AI could be
repealed by a new government; China
models in use now are trained on app’s parent Chinese company ByteDance dramatically different.
abolished Xi’s term limits and will has employed linguistic gymnastics to sepa-
English text. China now has at least
effectively allow him to remain in rate itself. Binance, the world’s largest crypto China’s Big Tech
130 LLMs, which accounts for 40% of
power for life. exchange, which was created in China, says Alibaba, Tencent, and Baidu, which have made
the global total, closely trailing the important advancements in AI research, may
that it doesn’t have a headquarters located
Within the next decade, China plans US. Despite this rapid development, in one physical location. find it difficult to keep innovating. Starting in
to meet two crucial milestones: By investors and analysts caution that 2020, the CCP initiated a wave of legislation
2027, its People’s Liberation Army will many of these models lack sustain- It’s no wonder that as Chinese startups aimed at its tech sector, introducing anti-mo-
hope to expand globally, they’re seeking to nopoly legislation focused on the platform
have a modern-ready force, and by able business strategies, offer sim-
distance themselves from the authoritarian economy and promoting data security and
2030 the Chinese Communist Party ilar functionalities, and face rising regime in Beijing. But that creates political privacy laws. The Personal Information Pro-
(CCP) expects to have outpaced the operational expenses. hurdles, especially as the CCP seeks to bring tection Law (PIPL), China’s version of the EU’s
US in AI and become the dominant its home-grown technology ecosystem into GDPR, went into effect in 2021. What followed
lockstep with party leaders. were a series of crackdowns targeting some of

China’s most successful tech companies. Ul- entire theater to establish Chinese-designed rest of the world combined.
timately, this regulation wasn’t about “break- AI systems.
This strategy mirrors China’s Belt and Road
ing up” China’s Big Tech—the CCP wanted to
Over 140 cities globally, from Kuala Lum- initiative but instead of building physical
focus its tech sector on achieving research
pur to Nairobi, are being transformed into infrastructure in developing nations to
and development goals set by the govern-
“smart cities” and “safe cities” powered by increase influence, China is building the
ment and military within the decade.
AI. Chinese companies are providing the technological infrastructure, which includes
Increasingly, Beijing is pressuring its me- technology and expertise to supercharge as- skills and data flow. However, US export con-
ga-successful big tech companies to share pects like transportation, logistics, and law trols on key semiconductors and technolo-
data with the state and to perform research to enforcement. China already leads the world gies to China present obstacles. In response,
support the vision of the CCP. Going forward, in exports of AI-enabled surveillance sys- China has taken measures such as prohib-
Beijing aims to direct the might of its tech tems. China’s “Luban workshop” initiative iting the use of chips from American com-
companies at programs of national strategic is another strategic move by China, offering pany Micron in its infrastructure and imple-
importance rather than making video games. vocational training globally that includes AI menting a licensing system for the export of
China’s tech crackdown could cool private in- education. This has resulted in the creation specific essential metals like gallium and
vestment in Chinese companies, which could of a workforce skilled in AI in various devel- germanium, which are crucial for high-end
result in a chilling effect on innovation and oping nations. China also created a “BRICS semiconductors as well as components in
economic growth, and also free up capital for AI Study Group” to accelerate AI cooperation solar panels and electric vehicles.
emerging markets. with other developing economies. Chinese
tech companies even helped construct the As China shapes the world order in its own
Deepening International Ties premier AI company in the UAE. Additionally, image, it is simultaneously exporting its
China dominates the market for industrial technologies and surveillance systems to China is funding smart cities powered by Chinese AI
China is actively building out AI infrastruc-
robot installations, having surpassed Japan other countries with authoritarian regimes. and surveillance technology in developing nations.
ture and ecosystems, specifically focused on
in 2013. The gap between China and other When the CCP expands into African coun- The country is exporting advanced monitoring
developing nations. By focusing on the infra-
countries has only widened—in 2021, China tries and throughout Southeast Asia and systems as part of a broader strategy to extend its
structure and the ecosystem, Beijing is not
installed more industrial robots than the Latin America, it will also begin to eschew technological and geopolitical influence.
just setting the stage—it’s constructing the

operating systems, technologies, and in- a recent test of “swarm intelligence” that
frastructure built by the West. Two Chinese can automate dozens of armed drones.
companies— the state-controlled CEIEC and
When it comes to AI, leaders should moni-
Huawei—built Ecuador’s surveillance sys-
tor escalating tensions between the US and
tem, called ECU-911. The system promised to
China. But they should also remember that
curb high murder rates and drug crime, but
there are cells of rogue actors who could
Ecuador could not afford the investment. As
cripple our economies simply by mucking
a result, a deal was struck for a Chinese-built
with the power or traffic grids, causing traf-
surveillance system financed with Chinese
fic spikes on the internet, or locking us out
loans. It was a prelude to a much more lucra-
of our connected home appliances. These
tive deal: Ecuador eventually signed away big
aren’t big, obvious signs of aggression, and
portions of its oil reserves to China to help
that is a problem for many countries, includ-
finance infrastructure projects. Similar pack-
ing the US. Most governments don’t have
age deals have been brokered in Venezuela
a paradigm describing a constellation of
and Bolivia.
aggressive actions. Each action on its own
China is quietly weaponizing AI, too. China’s might be insignificant. What are the escala-
People’s Liberation Army is catching up to tion triggers? Without a definition, a strate-
the US military, using AI for such tasks as gic vulnerability exists.
spotting hidden images with drones. The
Chinese military is equipping helicopters and
jet fighters with AI. The government created
a top-secret military lab—a Chinese version XX
of DARPA—and it’s building billion-dollar
AI national laboratories. China’s military is China is quickly advancing military applications of AI, recently demonstrating swarm intelligence capabili-
achieving remarkable AI successes, including ties to coordinate actions of dozens of armed drones.

WHAT IS EUROPE DOING?
In late 2023, The European Union fi- vironment for businesses in all 27 ble and flexible use in multiple lan- tion to compete with American and
nalized negotiations on its landmark member states. It will be responsible guages for various tasks, claiming Chinese tech giants. A new hub in the
AI Act. This legislation establishes the for monitoring compliance and in to outperform or match other lead- southeast city of Heilbronn aspires to
world’s first comprehensive frame- enforcing AI regulations. ing models on certain benchmarks. be a startup epicenter applying AI to
work for regulating AI systems. The The company uses a novel mixture help German industrial leaders stay
France aims to advance its AI ca-
overarching goals are to guarantee of experts (MoE) architecture, en- competitive. Germany has committed
pabilities and influence. President
AI safety, uphold ethical standards, hancing efficiency by routing tasks nearly 500 million euros toward AI
Macron promised more than $500
and drive European AI leadership. to specialized neural networks, research and innovation, aiming to
million to cultivate French AI “cham-
Specifically, the EU AI Act classifies AI making processing faster and less enhance supercomputing infrastruc-
pions” and counter Silicon Valley’s
systems into different risk categories resource-intensive. Mistral made its ture, skill development, and create
English-dominance in AI systems.
based on their use cases. models available for public use un- 150 new professorships, with a focus
Mistral, a Paris-based AI company
der the Apache 2.0 license via Hug- on achieving “technological sover-
In February 2024, a new European AI founded by Arthur Mensch, Guillau-
ging Face and BitTorrent—yes, the eignty” and reducing its dependency
Office, established within the Euro- me Lample, and Timothée Lacroix,
same BitTorrent that gained notori- on external powers. German Federal
pean Commission, was announced former AI researchers at Meta and
ety housing illegally copied movies Minister of Education and Research
to promote the development and use DeepMind, is gaining attention for
and music and allowing downloads Bettina Stark-Watzinger is lobbying
of safe and trustworthy AI across the its rapid growth and focus on devel-
via its peer-to-peer network—and for EU-wide cooperation in AI, partic-
EU, functioning as the core of a uni- oping smaller, high-performance AI
the company recently launched beta ularly between Germany, France, and
fied European AI governance system. models as an alternative to giants
access to its API for different levels Scandinavian countries, to position
Through the implementation of the like OpenAI. Unlike some larger,
of Mistral models. Europe at the forefront of the global AI
AI Act, the office aims to safeguard more restrictive models, Mistral’s
landscape. Despite all these commit-
health, safety, and fundamental offerings can run locally with open Germany also recognizes the geo-
ments, concerns linger about the slow
rights, providing a stable legal en- weights, allowing for more accessi- strategic importance of AI innova-

WHAT IS EUROPE DOING?
pace of integrating AI into the broad- up for debate is intellectual property ethics and norms that the Kremlin Major Russian tech companies like
er economy and the potential stifling across news and entertainment me- opposes. Putin warned against the Yandex and Sberbank are racing to
effect of the EU’s AI Act on innova- dia. The House of Lords have called “digital cancellation” of traditional build their own rivals to ChatGPT.
tion, highlighting the need for more for standardized regulatory powers Russian culture by Western AI al- But their offerings already lag be-
effective transfer of research to prac- and meaningful sanctions to deter gorithms, which he claimed often hind the accelerating innovation of
tical applications and the creation of wrongdoing––without explaining exclude or ignore Russian contribu- US and Chinese tech giants. Western
a robust AI-specific infrastructure. what oversight would need to entail, tions to culture, science, and litera- sanctions further hamper access to
or how innovation can still be count- ture. He pledged significant invest- vital computing power. Perhaps most
Brexit continues to complicate Eu-
ed on to stimulate the UK economy. ment in supercomputers and other critically, Russia’s authoritarian at-
rope’s AI landscape. The UK gov-
technologies to enhance national AI mosphere of censorship and distrust
ernment, following a white paper it Finally, let’s not forget Russia, which
research, underscoring the need for conflicts with the very nature of imag-
published in March 2023, decided seeks to counter Western dom-
AI developments to be grounded in inative, generative AI.
against introducing new AI-specif- inance in AI. In November 2023,
Russian traditional values and cul-
ic legislation, opting instead for a Russian President Vladimir Putin
tural heritage.
pro-innovation regulatory framework announced plans for the develop-
that leverages existing regulatory ment of an AI national strategy, Putin is justifiably worried about
powers to manage AI technologies. stressing that its focus would be to adopting a Western paradigm of
This approach emphasizes high-level prevent Western monopoly. He criti- AI. Models like ChatGPT are trained
principles such as safety, transpar- cized the “monopolistic dominance” overwhelmingly in English and are
ency, and fairness to guide regu- of foreign technology in Russia as likely to exhibit the same assump-
lators, without imposing statutory unacceptable and dangerous, high- tions as English-language media
duties to ensure flexibility and adapt- lighting that many AI systems are that could contradict official nar-
ability in AI oversight. One area still trained on Western data, reflecting ratives peddled by Russian media.

WHAT IS THE MIDDLE EAST DOING?
The United Arab Emirates is posi- hardware suppliers such as Huawei. In parallel, the Kingdom of Saudi AI strategy. SDAIA initiatives like the
tioning itself as a neutral ground for The decision to phase out Chinese Arabia has embarked on its own National Center for Artificial Intelli-
the advancement of artificial intel- hardware was also a move to pre- sweeping economic diversification gence are designed to make Saudi
ligence, aiming to bridge the gap serve G42’s access to US-made chips. agenda centered around AI. Through Arabia an AI leader across priority
between the US and China amidst its Vision 2030 plan, the kingdom industries such as health care. Global
Also late in 2023, the government
ongoing geopolitical tensions. To seeks to position itself for a future tech giants have taken note, with Chi-
launched a new state-sponsored AI
date, the UAE government has shown where the global economy is less na’s Huawei recently launching a new
company, AI71, to commercialize its
deft diplomatic skills in navigating dependent on oil and more driven cloud data center in Riyadh to grow
leading LLM, Falcon. AI71 aspires to
complex international relations that by technology and innovation. The its digital offerings in the region. The
directly compete with leading AI labs
increasingly involve AI and other crit- crown jewel of Vision 2030 is Neom, facility will support AI applications
like OpenAI. The UAE is also focusing
ical technologies. a futuristic megacity under con- and Arabic language models to power
on nurturing its homegrown talent
struction aiming to seamlessly inte- government services. Though Hua-
Though the UAE government has in AI by investing in specialized edu-
grate cutting-edge technologies like wei’s expansion may benefit Saudi
worked hard to remain neutral, its cation. It established the Mohamed
robotics and AI across all aspects of AI progress in the near term, Wash-
companies are still caught in the bin Zayed University of Artificial
daily life. ington is likely to view such collabo-
crosshairs between the ongoing race Intelligence (MBZUAI), recruiting
rations with concern given its wider
between the US and China for AI su- renowned experts from institutions The kingdom is backing its AI ambi-
technology rivalry with China.
premacy. A major innovator based in like University of California, Berkeley tions with significant investments,
Abu Dhabi, G42, develops advanced and Carnegie Mellon as its faculty. including $20 billion specifically The governance structures in KSA
technologies across sectors like The university produces scores of earmarked for advancing artificial and the UAE allow for swifter deci-
space, health care, energy, and secu- graduates annually, most of whom intelligence. It established the Saudi sion-making and implementation of
rity, but in December 2023, it faced work at local Emirati technology Data and Artificial Intelligence Au- technology strategies compared to
growing pressure to cut ties with companies. thority (SDAIA) to drive the national democracies, where public opinion on

WHAT IS THE MIDDLE EAST DOING?
issues like privacy and employment

significantly influences policy. These
nations have the financial resourc-
es to invest heavily in essential AI
components like GPUs, having spent
hundreds of millions on them, as well
as the energy required to power these
intensive processors.
Many Middle Eastern nations are positioning themselves as emerging AI hubs, aggressively investing in AI skills development, research, and entrepreneurship.
The goal is to diversify their economies in anticipation of declining reliance on oil.

TALENT

WHERE AND HOW DO I GET AI TALENT?
As AI permeates industries, demand Demand for AI-related Skills Increases of AI skills across occupations, has revealed Anthropic, are offering starting salaries for
Across Sectors
has soared for technical talent to that as of 2022, the regions leading in AI skill new researchers in the range of $700,000 to
Employer demand for AI skills is rising rap- penetration are India, the United States, and $900,000, according to salary negotiation
build and deploy AI capabilities. How-
idly across nearly every industry in the US. Germany. The increasing prevalence of these service Rora, with Google even offering sub-
ever, the rapid pace of innovation has With the exception of sectors such as agri- skills points to a transformative phase in the stantial restricted stock grants to attract top
yielded a global AI skills shortage. culture, forestry, fishing, and hunting, there job market, where AI proficiency is becoming data scientists. That’s orders of magnitude
Employers struggle to attract talent, has been a noticeable uptick in AI-related a critical asset for professionals in a multi- higher pay than what even tenured professors
especially when competing against job postings—from 1.7% of all postings in tude of sectors. can expect from their universities. Top aca-
prestigious technology giants with 2021 to 1.9% in 2022. Employers are actively demics now earn generous corporate salaries
seeking individuals proficient in machine AI Brain Drain from Academia and benefits, and they get to work in a similar
deep pockets. This breeds uncertainty
learning, which tops the list of in-demand A striking shift has occurred in where AI Ph.D. tenured environment that’s carefully cultivat-
on optimal strategies, leading execu-
AI skills, followed by knowledge in artificial graduates build their careers. The Artificial ed to replicate their experience in academia.
tives to wonder about the precise mix intelligence and natural language process- Intelligence Index Report from Stanford
of skills needed in their workforce, ing. The surge in these specific areas un- shows an increase in the proportion of AI
Tech companies are also endowing AI profes-
whether current hiring approaches ap- derscores a shift in the job market, with AI sorships at top universities. In some cases,
Ph.D. graduates in North America entering
ply for burgeoning AI roles, and how to skill clusters achieving greater prominence professors take one- or two-year sabbaticals
the industry after graduation, from 44.4%
than they had a decade prior. Demand for to work at tech companies and then return to
evaluate the technical caliber required in 2010 to roughly 48% in 2019, while the
Python skills has also increased, evidence their universities. But corporate benefits can
for AI related work. percentage taking up academic positions
of its growing popularity as an AI coding be difficult to give up, and companies need
declined from 42.1% in 2010 to 23.7% in that
language. This increased AI skills demand the talent. Poaching academia today could rob
same period. The reason is clear: Compet-
is not isolated to the US; it reflects a global the future of future AI experts: Without great
itive salaries offered by the private sector,
trend. The US leads globally for AI-related scholars, who will train the next generation of
along with the chance to work on applied
job postings, followed by Canada and Spain. innovators?
AI research, has tempted Ph.D.s away from
Furthermore, LinkedIn’s AI skill penetration the classroom to corporate America. Lead-
rate metric, which assesses the prevalence ing AI organizations, such as OpenAI and

HOW WILL AI CHANGE THE NATURE OF WORK?
In a clever study released last summer, researchers from the US demonstrated Gains and Pains technologies enable doctors to discern addi-
that shortly after ChatGPT was introduced, copywriters and graphic designers The integration of AI promises to both tional insights.
on prominent online freelancing sites experienced a notable decrease in job op- enhance efficiency for some roles while
Status Shifts
making other jobs more challenging. In the
portunities, along with steep declines in their earnings. Here’s the rub: Genera-
financial services sector, for instance, a Emerging research suggests AI may profound-
tive AI wasn’t only replacing their jobs, it was diminishing the value of the work study has highlighted how the integration ly reshape perceptions of high-status occu-
they are trained to do. of AI systems is increasing the demands on pations in the coming years by automating
middle management. While AI applications prestigious skills. Studies from the OECD
It’s become clear that AI will change how we do work, where we do work, and and OpenAI forecast mass job losses even
efficiently handle routine tasks formerly
what work needs to be done in ways that are both piddling and profound. This executed by humans, this shift necessitates in respected professional domains like law,
breeds equal parts excitement and anxiety. While fears persist of mass job that managers adapt to new challenges and medicine, and finance. However, AI might also
elimination, experts emphasize AI more as augmenting than replacing human demands, navigating a landscape where they democratize skills that have long been asso-
roles—though the truth remains unclear. Furthermore, as AI becomes more must balance traditional management roles ciated with high-status roles. For instance, the
sophisticated, able to collaborate with humans and demonstrate capabilities with the oversight of AI systems. use of AI like GPT-4 in professional services
has shown that those leveraging these tools
once considered uniquely human, it raises the question: Is AI a tool for workers Yet in medicine, AI is generally positioned as can outperform their peers across various
to use or a colleague to collaborate with? The answer may determine how readi- an empowering asset to augment clinicians tasks. LLMs might be just as good—or even
ly people embrace working with AI. rather than replace them. Physician-re- better—at certain jobs in law firms because
searchers at Beth Israel Deaconess Medical the work can be automated for faster, cheaper
Center showed an AI chatbot surpassing results. The use of LLMs in law could change
human accuracy at probabilistic reason- how legal work is done, potentially reducing
ing to aid diagnoses. Separately, scientists the need for junior lawyers for routine tasks
at University College London developed AI and forcing legal process outsourcing firms to
speech pattern detection tools to uncover change their business models, while also of-
early schizophrenia indicators. Rather than fering law firms and legal departments signif-
substituting the role of the physician, these icant efficiency gains and cost savings. This

HOW WILL AI CHANGE THE NATURE OF WORK?
suggests that AI has the potential to level the realms could represent a profound and prioritizing features, and developing busi- sophisticated financial AI agents. It’s already
playing field, allowing individuals who might unprecedented shift in societal values and ness cases. A developer AI agent would focus begun creating large language models tailored
not have traditionally excelled in these roles the stratification of labor. In this new era, on automating code generation, refining to finance. Similarly, LexisNexis, with its vast
to boost their performance and productivity. jobs that are less susceptible to automation, existing code, and aiding in bug detection. legal information database, could develop
such as skilled trades, might gain in pres- AI agents specialized in the legal domain.
This shift also brings a potential upheaval in tige and economic reward relative to those But these agents wouldn’t be siloed to These AI agents, drawing from deep wells of
the power dynamics traditionally associated more easily disrupted by AI technologies. interaction with humans—they can interact domain-specific data, would not only cater to
with specialized skills and knowledge. High with one another just as humans would to their direct users but also become invaluable
verbal intelligence, once a marker of elite sta- Agents Will Increasingly Perform Tasks on accomplish a goal. Imagine an ecosystem assets to other businesses, systems, and AI
tus and a key to high earnings, might lose its Our Behalf populated by specialized AI agents, each agents.
prestige as AI begins to outperform humans The workforce is increasingly familiarizing equipped with distinct expertise and knowl-
in tasks involving language and writing. itself with chatbots to perform routine tasks edge, designed to not only assist individual
Skills such as writing proficiency or multi- like drafting emails and synthesizing tech- tasks but also to collaborate and interact
lingualism, previously indicators of a highly nical language and documents. AI agents with one another. This vision points toward
educated individual, may diminish in value would take this a step further by active- a future where AI agents evolve from per-
as AI improves text quality and eliminates ly performing tasks like sending emails, forming singular, user-specific tasks— like
language barriers. scheduling meetings, and booking reserva- drafting emails, resolving customer support
tions. These agents represent a shift toward queries, or managing grocery orders—to op-
The possible reduction in status and influ- erating within a network where they commu-
ence for those skilled in words and symbols a more proactive and autonomous model,
transcending the capabilities of traditional nicate and cooperate with other agents.
is a significant cultural shift. For centuries,
Western societies have revered those adept at chatbots. AI agents could book your vaca- Companies that possess extensive data
conceiving and communicating new con- tion, coordinate dinner reservations among repositories in specific verticals are likely to
cepts. The rise of the Scientific and Industrial friends’ calendars, or perform specific tasks emerge as leaders in the AI Agent space. For
revolutions only amplified their status and relevant to a particular role at a company. example, Bloomberg, with its rich trove of
influence. The encroachment of AI into these For example, a product owner AI agent could financial data, is well-positioned to develop
specialize in aiding with market analysis,

EMERGING
CAPABILITIES

CAN AI REASON? AND HOW CLOSE ARE WE REALLY TO AGI AND ASI?
Can AI think like a human? Recent advances suggest we may be close to un- The success of AlphaGeometry highlights AI’s
locking AI’s potential for complex reasoning, and perhaps even one day achiev- growing capacity for logical reasoning and
knowledge discovery. AlphaGeometry effec-
ing artificial
general intelligence (AGI), shorthand for a computer that can do
tively showcases a process that mirrors real
anything a human brain can. Microsoft recently startled the AI community, be- Will AI take over the thinking. Its process has been compared to
coming the first major tech company to argue current systems exhibit sparks of
AGI. While it never made that same proclamation, Google’s DeepMind team has world? No, this is a the dual-process theory of thinking, Type I and
Type II, as popularized by psychologist Daniel
repeatedly demonstrated nascent AGI capabilities in its research. projection of human Kahneman in “Thinking, Fast and Slow.” Also
from the DeepMind team, a technique involv-
AGI refers to flexible, human-level cognition able to tackle any intellectual task. nature on machines. ing LLMs named FunSearch has demonstrated
Yet progress has been uneven across the spectrum of what a human brain is that AI can assist mathematicians in solving
able to do. Contrary to sci-fi visions of AI’s prowess at logic and math, early —Yann LeCun, wicked problems, inspired by the card game
breakthroughs in artificial intelligence were primarily in creative realms like vice president and chief AI scientist at Meta “Set.” This marks the first instance where an
art and language modeling. Initially, it was believed that AI would excel in rea- LLM-based system has been able to surpass
existing mathematical and computer science
son-based jobs, particularly in mathematics, given computers’ inherent profi- AI Breakthroughs in Mathematics
solutions, proving yet again that AI can solve
ciency in handling numbers and calculations at a speed far surpassing human A breakthrough in AI’s mathematical abili- a wide array of math and compsci questions
capabilities. However, the evolution of AI has taken a somewhat unexpected ties was showcased by DeepMind’s Alpha- more effectively than human mathematicians
turn, veering more towards creative applications rather than purely logical rea- Geometry. In a landmark paper published in working alone. FunSearch works by generat-
soning. That is, until now. Looking beyond AGI, the ultimate frontier is artificial Nature, AlphaGeometry demonstrated its ca- ing and testing short computer programs for
pability to solve complex geometry problems solving mathematical problems, refining its
super intelligence (ASI)—AI that surpasses human intelligence in every aspect,
at a level comparable to a human Olympiad approach through feedback, and represents a
from creativity to problem-solving, heralding an era where AI’s capabilities gold medalist. It successfully solved 25 out novel form of human-machine collaboration
could transcend human limitations. of 30 Olympiad-level geometry problems that could amplify the capabilities of human
within the standard time limit, a perfor- mathematicians rather than replace them.
mance on par with top human competitors.

AI Persuasion ing public opinion on contentious political have developed methods for organizing this items. This research marks a significant step
Logical argument is core to persuasion, but issues. Their findings were alarming: AI-gen- data to forecast future events in an individu- forward in AI’s ability to interpret and visual-
emotional resonance and validating existing erated arguments were as persuasive, if not al’s life. Notably, their model, dubbed Life- ize human thoughts based on neurological
views profoundly shape what people are con- more so, than those penned by humans on 2vec, can make predictions about profoundly data. The implications of these advancements
vinced of too. AI shows promising aptitude on a range of topics. For example, AI-crafted significant events, including estimating the are profound. AI’s ability to predict life events
both fronts—generating seemingly rational ar- messages on policies like smoking bans and time frame of a person’s death. suggests a future where technology could offer
guments while precisely targeting psycholog- carbon taxes significantly shifted readers’ insights into personal and societal trends
support. While highlighting AI’s influential The cutting edge in AI reveals accelerating with unprecedented accuracy. Meanwhile,
ical triggers. OpenAI CEO Sam Altman recently
potential, researchers in parallel sound abilities to computationally interpret inte- the capacity to reconstruct visual experienc-
warned superhuman persuasiveness may
alarms on misuse by hostile actors. As gral aspects of the human experience—from es from brain scans opens new avenues for
arise in AI before general intelligence does,
models continue absorbing the intricacies life outcomes to subjective thought itself. understanding human cognition, memory, and
with unpredictable outcomes. AI chatbots,
of human psychology while simultaneously Recent research has demonstrated AI’s perception.
like OpenAI’s ChatGPT, have demonstrated an
continuing to improve at logic-based per- ability to not only forecast significant life
impressive level of conversational prowess;
suasion, safeguarding against deception events but also to delve into the depths of More practically, Nvidia is developing an
they can sound convincing, even when pro-
emerges paramount. human cognition by reconstructing images AI-powered “digital twin” of Earth, known as
viding incorrect information, which is partic-
seen by individuals, based solely on brain Earth-2, leveraging its FourCastNet AI model
ularly troubling when considering the human
Prediction and Prescience Into Our scans. A team from Osaka University in Ja- to predict weather with unprecedented speed
tendency to form emotional connections with
Human Lives pan has achieved a groundbreaking feat in and accuracy, outperforming traditional meth-
these systems. Evidence shows even limited
Will I die within four years? This is one of cognitive AI. By analyzing functional mag- ods by forecasting thousands of potential out-
interactions with AI chatbots promotes at-
the questions that a collaborative research netic resonance imaging (fMRI) scans taken comes. This breakthrough in climate modeling
tachment and trust, amplifying their capacity
project is pushing AI to be able to answer. By while subjects viewed specific images, the represents a huge advance in applied research.
for conviction.
leveraging large data sets detailing various AI system they trained was able to recreate
these images with surprising accuracy. The Detecting Emotion
Researchers at Stanford’s Polarization and aspects of people’s lives and employing
Social Change Lab and the Institute for Hu- transformer models—similar to those under- AI generated visuals of a teddy bear, a clock A new type of neural network can determine
man-Centered Artificial Intelligence conduct- pinning the language processing capabilities tower, and an airplane, among other objects, how people are feeling. Using radio waves, AI
ed studies to explore AI’s capabilities in sway- of systems like ChatGPT—the researchers after participants had looked at similar can detect subtle changes in heart rhythms,

run a pattern analysis, and predict someone’s recognition systems, albeit amid ethical con- Amit Sheth, who founded the Artificial Intel-
emotional state in a given moment. A team cerns over potential misuse—the country has ligence Institute at the University of South
from Queen Mary University of London used a faced scrutiny for employing emotion AI to Carolina, is exploring a new idea called neu-
transmitting radio antenna to bounce radio enable surveillance, most notably to monitor ro-symbolic vision. This approach is similar
waves off test subjects and trained a neural the Uyghur population. to how we, as humans, understand the world:
net to detect fear, disgust, joy and relaxation, by turning what we see and hear into sym-
as people were shown different videos. The Neuro-symbolic AI bols in our minds, and then using what we
system accurately tagged emotional states Neuro-symbolic AI combines the best of two know to make sense of those symbols, make
71% of the time, which signals new opportuni- worlds in AI: the learning capabilities of neu- plans, and take actions. This way of process-
ties for health and wellness applications, as ral networks (which are good at handling un- ing information is also how we explain our
well as for job interviews and the government/ structured data like images and language) thoughts and actions to others, which is
military intelligence community. The EU is and the reasoning capabilities of symbolic AI especially important in areas like health care
sponsoring a pilot project called iBorderCtrl (which deals with structured data and logic). where trust is key. Neuro-symbolic AI aims
that uses emotion recognition technology For businesses, this means they can create to improve how smart systems figure things
to assess truthfulness in border crossing smarter systems that not only learn from out and make them more accountable. By
interviews—the system analyzes interviewees’ vast amounts of data but also understand combining the learning power of neural net-
micro-expressions and nonverbal cues in an and apply rules and logic, similar to human works with organized knowledge (like facts
attempt to quantify the likelihood of decep- reasoning. In practical terms, this means and rules), we could see big improvements
tion during questioning. However, emotion that a neuro-symbolic AI could analyze a in AI’s ability to understand concepts, make
recognition technology is still emerging and company’s data and also understand the connections, and reason about the world in a
its accuracy in quantifying human emotion re- context, making decisions that are more way that’s clear to us. As people start ques-
mains unproven, given the inherent complex- accurate and relevant to specific business tioning current AI methods, this neuro-sym-
AI can detect emotions through facial analysis and
ity and nuance of human expression. Some of scenarios. By understanding rules and logic, bolic approach could lead us toward creating by tracking subtle biological clues like changing
the most advanced emotion recognition tech- neuro-symbolic AI might automate tasks AI that thinks more like humans do, which heart rhythms.
nology is currently being developed in China, that previously required human understand- could be a big step toward achieving AGI.
where extensive work has been done on facial ing, saving time and reducing errors. Image credit: Future Today Institute and Midjourney.

IS THE FUTURE OF AI CLOUD, EDGE, OR ON-DEVICE?
Where we will ultimately deploy AI Cloud Neutrality Cloud Strain From AI Boom with Nvidia essentially serving as the sole
workloads remains an open question. A handful of companies control the cloud AI has arrived, but the underpinnings of supplier. Because of high demand, Nvidia’s
and have the ability to set pricing, access the cloud may struggle to withstand its H100 graphics—an earlier version of their
Many anticipate the future is likely to
and standards. Those companies own the weight. Cloud providers such as Amazon most powerful graphics—sold for more than
embrace a hybrid approach that com-
infrastructure and don’t have to make their Web Services, Microsoft Azure, and Google $40,000 on eBay. To reduce their dependence
bines cloud, edge, and on-device com- business practices transparent. Generative Cloud are under intense pressure to adapt on Nvidia, companies like Alphabet, Microsoft,
puting in some capacity. This strategy AI systems require enormous amounts of their services to accommodate the needs of and Amazon are developing their own AI chips
allows for data processing and model costly computing power and cloud infra- large-scale generative AI models, which can for model training. Despite their cloud plat-
training to leverage the vast parallel structure, which the tech giants are trading be up to 100 times larger than their prede- forms not being fully optimized for AI, AI work-
processing power of cloud servers. for future shares of profit. This consolidates cessors. Generative AI models like ChatGPT loads are contributing to significant revenue
additional power among the largest cloud that produce original text and analysis can growth in their cloud infrastructure.
Meanwhile, edge hardware and local
providers. As more of our businesses and as- be 10 to 100 times more complex than a
devices could handle real-time infer- AI Breathes Life Into Legacy Systems
pects of our lives move to the cloud, efforts Google search. The current cloud infrastruc-
ences and personalization, optimizing will grow to ensure that infrastructure serves ture, primarily designed to provide scalable, The rising costs associated with cloud com-
for both performance and privacy. But the public interest. The three biggest cloud pay-as-you-go services for diverse workloads puting, especially for tasks like training AI
the specific balance across environ- providers, Microsoft, Amazon, and Google, through general-purpose computing, is now models, are prompting some companies to
ments and when to favor one over the have collectively invested tens of billions of significantly challenged by the demands of reconsider on-premises solutions. Dell Tech-
other is still unclear as capabilities dollars building infrastructure: data centers, AI-intensive workloads. nologies, recognizing this shift, has developed
monitoring systems and software. Their ro- servers specifically designed for on-premis-
and demands evolve. Only a small portion of current cloud serv-
bustly designed systems prevent downtime es AI deployments. By moving AI operations
and data loss, and few other companies in ers are outfitted with AI-optimized GPUs in-house, Dell argues that companies can po-
the world can compete. But the cloud isn’t or structured to function in collaborative tentially save on networking and data storage
clusters, essential for meeting the substan- expenses. Furthermore, AI is playing a pivotal
public infrastructure; it’s private. And as
tial computational requirements of AI tasks. role in revitalizing legacy mainframe sys-
private companies, cloud providers currently
A significant bottleneck also arises from the tems. Over 800 billion lines of COBOL code are
control access to services that are becoming
scarce availability of high-performing GPUs, currently in use within production systems,
the lifeblood of businesses.

making the transition from this language, and IBM collaboration, PockEngine is a train- easier integration into edge devices. For blend of performance and privacy. These com-
established in 1959, to more contemporary ing model that selectively identifies which mobile and embedded use cases, massive panies are competitively equipping their de-
languages a daunting task. The scarcity of specific parts of an otherwise enormous cloud-based LLMs are often impractical. vices with specialized AI chips to enable local
COBOL experts—many are nearing retirement model to update locally based on a user’s Their substantial size and latency makes processing, thereby reducing reliance on cloud
age—and the complex nature of migration unique inputs. By focusing only on essen- local deployment a non-starter. More com- servers. This approach to on-device AI process-
efforts for large organizations further com- tial parameters and shifting computations pact models in the millions or single-digit ing is motivated by the goal of safeguarding
pound these challenges. IBM’s introduction of to preprocessing, PockEngine minimizes billions of parameters, however, could po- sensitive data, drastically cutting down the
Code Assistant for IBM Z, an AI-powered tool real-time resource usage. Not only does this tentially run efficiently on smartphones and risk of data breaches during its transfer to
that translates COBOL code into Java, offers make it more efficient, it also facilitates IoT devices. Your washing machine could be and from the cloud. Moreover, on-device AI has
a solution to modernize mainframe applica- the creation of personalized deep-learning equipped with a compact language model, the unique capability to adapt and personalize
tions with the help of AI. This blend of AI in- models. For instance, AI assistants can con- enabling you to inform it verbally that you’re according to a user’s behavior directly on the
novation not only supports the shift towards tinuously adapt to a user’s accent or typing washing a mixed load and are concerned device. Samsung introduced its Galaxy S24
on-premises AI deployments to manage costs patterns without reliance on constant cloud about a sweater washing in overly warm smartphones, showcasing a leap in AI capa-
but also demonstrates the potential for AI to connectivity. Tests demonstrate PockEngine water. The small language model that can bilities with the implementation of generative
breathe new life into legacy infrastructures. fine-tuning complex models up to 15x faster run in the appliance eliminates the need for AI tools that operate through a combination
than alternatives, all while maintaining or internet connectivity to operate your wash- of on-device processing and cloud-based
Optimizing AI to Run at the Edge boosting accuracy. ing machine in this manner. SLMs could computations. Google’s latest Pixel phone
Smart devices like phones lack the memory therefore empower voice assistants, smart features custom AI silicon to handle tasks like
and computing power required to fine-tune Small Language Models for AI at the Edge home automation, and beyond, reducing predictive typing more responsively on-device.
AI models with user data over time. This While large language models with billions or the dependency on cloud-based services for Apple’s newest MacBook CPU incorporates
limitation has necessitated transmitting trillions of parameters have demonstrated these types of applications. neural processing units for faster machine
personal information to the cloud for updat- impressive capabilities, smaller AI models learning. AMD’s latest Ryzen mobile chips
ing, an energy-intensive process that risks may be better suited for edge-based use On-Device AI similarly target laptop enhancements like
data privacy. Now, advances like PockEngine cases. Though less broadly capable, special- Tech giants such as Samsung, Microsoft, voice assistance.
enable efficient on-device learning without ized mini-models bring benefits like faster Google, and Apple are spearheading a move-
offloading data. Developed through an MIT inference, lower compute requirements, and ment towards on-device AI, emphasizing a


Wearable AI and analyzes speech patterns. Essentially,
AI is changing human-computer interac- the Pendant serves as a personalized assis-
tion, shifting us away from screens, track- tant harnessing environmental information
pads, and keyboards towards more intuitive, to support the user. Both the Humane Pin
voice-based interfaces. This is giving rise to and Rewind Pendant epitomize the shift
a new class of lightweight, wearable gadgets towards invisible, assistive technology that
and screenless computers that integrate facilitates life’s tasks and interactions much
seamlessly into daily life. By reducing screen like a helpful human companion would. This
fatigue and intrusive features, these de- evolution in form and function represents a
vices foster a more natural, human-centric paradigm shift, integrating technology more
approach to technology. A prime example is seamlessly while making it feel more intui-
the newly launched Humane AI Pin, an Ope- tive and human-centric.
nAI-powered wearable priced at $699, plus
Note: we’ve included this trend in both the AI
a $24 monthly subscription. Forgoing tradi-
and Computing reports. We think it is important
tional app interfaces, this 34-gram device
to consider the near-future of wearables as you
focuses solely on voice interactions. Users
contemplate the future of your organization and
access information and perform tasks by
AI’s development.
speaking to the Pin’s built-in microphone.
By stripping down the technological inter-
face, Humane aims to create a streamlined,
human-like experience. Another device is the
Rewind AI Pendant, which captures real-world
conversations, storing encrypted transcripts
and audio locally on the user’s phone. Be- AI can let us get information by voice requests rather than typing search terms or looking through folders.
yond recording, Rewind’s platform searches This more natural interaction could drive demand for wearable or voice-based interfaces.
transcripts, generates meeting summaries

WHY SHOULD WE PAY ATTENTION TO EMERGING CAPABILITIES THAT

AREN’T YET FULLY DEVELOPED?
Businesses should keep an eye on Vector Databases their product offerings, and funding flows
emerging AI capabilities because Vector databases are poised to grow rapidly into vector database startups, adoption will
in importance alongside advancements in accelerate. By 2026, over 30% of enterprises
these technologies can unlock new
AI. As AI models like large language models are expected to implement vector databases
opportunities for innovation, effi-
become more capable of human-like gen- to support their AI models. This trend signals
ciency, and competitive advantage. eration across modalities like text, images, a skills shift as well, with data and software
Early awareness and adoption of AI and audio, they rely heavily on vector repre- engineering teams needing more knowledge
advancements can position a compa- sentations of data, known as embeddings, of techniques like semantic search and vec-
ny as a market leader, enabling it to to understand and generate contextual tor indexes to successfully leverage vector
refine its operations, enhance cus- meaning. To function optimally, these gen- databases for AI use cases.
tomer experiences, and create novel erative models need databases specifical-
Vertical Integration From Hardware to LLMs
ly designed to store massive vector data
products or services.
sets and allow instantaneous retrieval of Companies are increasingly adopting a ho-
semantically similar vectors. This is where listic approach to AI development, seeking to
vector databases come in; they are uniquely dominate the entire spectrum from hard-
designed to efficiently store, manage, and ware to LLMs through end-to-end vertical
retrieve high-dimensional vector data, which integration. This strategy would allow com-
is crucial for embedding processes found in panies to oversee the full pipeline, from the
natural language processing, image gen- foundational hardware to the sophisticated
eration, and other AI applications. Unlike AI models that drive innovation. Nvidia, a
traditional databases that organize data in titan in the realm of AI hardware, is now
rows and columns, vector databases use speculated to potentially broaden its scope
If you aren’t ahead, you are already behind. Proac-
vectors to represent data points, enabling into cloud computing services. By capitaliz- tively assessing how innovations apply to their
faster and more relevant data retrieval based ing on its hardware prowess, Nvidia could of- operations and offerings will help companies capi-
on similarity. As companies like Microsoft fer comprehensive AI cloud services, further talize on advances and stay competitive.
and Oracle introduce vector databases into cementing its role in shaping the AI domain.

WHY SHOULD WE PAY ATTENTION TO EMERGING CAPABILITIES THAT

AREN’T YET FULLY DEVELOPED?
Nvidia’s GeForce Now, a cloud streaming one of its supercomputers, Intel has built
service, already demonstrates the compa- a generative AI system capable of process-
ny’s capability to merge high-performance ing text and images. This initiative not only
hardware with cloud-based offerings, hinting showcases Intel’s commitment to advancing
at a future where Nvidia’s influence extends AI capabilities but also emphasizes the stra-
across the AI ecosystem. In February 2024, tegic value of controlling both hardware and
Nvidia demoed a personalized AI chatbot for software components in delivering sophisti-
Windows PCs that connects to local files, cated, secure, and efficient AI solutions.
enabling natural language queries such as
“what restaurant did my friend recommend?”.
Rather than searching manually, users can
query the chatbot directly to retrieve informa-
tion from personal notes and messages.
Meanwhile, cloud AI providers like Amazon,

along with emerging AI startups like Anthrop-
ic and Mistral, currently depend on third-party
hardware for their AI operations. This depen-
dency poses the question of whether these
entities might emulate OpenAI’s strategy of
procuring their own chips. In early 2024, Sam
Altman, OpenAI CEO, indicated that he plans
to raise billions for an AI chip venture aimed
at developing a network of factories for fabri-
Companies are now adopting a comprehensive strategy for AI, covering everything from hardware to LLMs.
cation. Intel’s foray into AI software develop-
They aim for control over the entire AI development process through vertical integration.
ment further illustrates this trend. Leveraging

INDUSTRIES

INDUSTRIES
Many companies have new competitors—they just don’t realize it yet. The
boundaries between sectors are blurring; professional services firms tradition-
ally known for consulting are now venturing into engineering, powered by AI
technologies. Similarly, big tech hyperscalers, once primarily focused on build-
ing and hosting tech infrastructure, are expanding into consulting services.
This crossover signifies that AI’s versatility and capability to add value across
different functions are enabling companies to enter and compete in domains
previously beyond their reach. Consequently, businesses may find themselves
up against competitors from entirely different industries, underscoring the
need to innovate and adapt strategies in response to the unpredictable dynam-
ics AI introduces to the market.
While AI may not directly replace every job, it positions those who embrace its capabilities to outperform
and replace those who do not.

HOW IS AI BEING USED IN HR?
AI is enabling HR departments to Autonomous Talent Acquisition analyze hundreds of details, such as the Benefits Selection and Management
automate time-consuming adminis- AI automation can significantly reduce the tone of voice, facial expressions, and man- AI automation is taking over the complex
time and cost of recruiting by handling nerisms to best predict how a candidate will tasks of managing employee benefits, includ-
trative tasks like screening job appli-
tedious, manual tasks like screening re- fit in with the culture of a community. Start- ing facilitating open enrollment, tracking indi-
cants, while also providing insights to
sumes, scheduling interviews, and tailoring ups such as HireVue use AI systems to help vidual coverage, and making adjustments due
enhance employee retention, training, outreach. Johnson & Johnson leveraged AI companies decide which candidates to hire. to life changes. This simplifies workflows for
development and engagement. From writing tools to reduce unconscious bias in HR teams and provides employees smoother,
personalized onboarding chatbots But this kind of recognition technology has
job descriptions, improving gender diversity more reliable experiences with their benefits.
practical applications beyond job interviews:
to performance comparison analyt- in applicants. AI also assists with onboard- Startups like Paidleave.ai offer AI chatbots to
It can detect when someone is likely to
ics, companies are unleashing AI to ing tasks like verifying employee paperwork, assist workers in understanding and utilizing
make a purchase—or attempt to shoplift—
expedite recruiting, predict attrition delivering induction training, and providing paid leave benefits. Major HR systems provid-
in a store, whether someone is lying, and
system access. By automating repetitive HR ers like ADP are also releasing AI assistants,
risk, optimize benefits, identify pro- whether someone is receptive to new sug-
workflows, AI allows recruiters and manag- such as ADP Assist, to help HR managers han-
ductivity barriers and mitigate bias in ers to focus their human skills on building
gestions and ideas. Unlike security cameras,
dle common inquiries and provide data-driven
reviews. Though valid ethical concerns which tend to have a light indicating they’re
relationships and strategic planning. Overall, insights. By automating benefits adminis-
remain, AI has significant potential recording, algorithms work invisibly, which
AI promises major gains in operational effi- tration, AI enables HR staff to focus on more
means that this is an area that could face
in HR to both improve experiences ciency, cost savings, and unbiased, person- strategic tasks while empowering employees
regulatory scrutiny. The consumer advocacy
for employees and drive better overall alized experiences for both recruiting and through intuitive self-service tools.
organization Electronic Privacy Informa-
business performance. onboarding processes.
tion Center filed a complaint with the FTC
Customer and Personnel Recognition requesting an investigation into HireVue,
Systems alleging its tools produce results that are
Recognition systems can now be deployed “biased, unprovable, and not replicable”
to watch people in an interview and gauge through algorithmic models.
enthusiasm, tenacity, and poise. Algorithms

HOW IS AI BEING USED IN MARKETING?
AI will change marketing in big ways. AI Shifts Search dation woven into the consumer experience. AI-Assisted Campaigns
Algorithms can study lots of custom- Early data signals that the rise of AI tools Failure to adapt approaches could prove Major digital advertising platforms like Meta
like ChatGPT may be subtly reducing Goo- highly risky in the coming years. and Google are unveiling new generative AI
er data to understand what people
gle search volumes. While the search giant capabilities to assist advertisers in stream-
want. This lets marketers create very Dynamic Engagement Through Deep
still dominates with over 90% market share, lining campaign creation. In May 2023, Meta
tailored ads and content for each metrics show marginal declines coinciding
Personalization
launched AI Sandbox—a “playground” for
person. AI chatbots can also have with surging interest in conversational AI. Traditional marketing communications testing AI-powered ad tools. Features include
friendly conversations to help cus- Rather than competitors like Bing stealing like emails, PDFs, and social posts have intelligent text variation to auto-generate
tomers. Perhaps more importantly, share, this hints at a more fundamental been static and one-way, but AI is ushering messages optimized for different audienc-
shift—people using search less because in a new era of responsive, conversational es, background image generation from text
AI shifts how buyers find and choose
AI applications can directly provide infor- messaging. Chatbots and virtual influencers prompts, and image resizing to fit multiple
products in the first place. By chang- allow for personalized interactions where
mation. For marketers who have invested social media formats. Meanwhile, Google
ing the platforms people use, their content changes based on the user. For
heavily in search engine optimization, this expanded its Gemini conversational AI that
behaviors change too. Marketers presents a seismic challenge. If traffic from example, Meta leverages AI characters based creates full search campaigns from a single
should fully rethink strategy as AI search shrinks in favor of on-device intel- on celebrities like Snoop Dogg and Kendall landing page URL provided by the advertiser.
transforms what makes people dis- ligent assistants, prevailing strategies get Jenner to engage audiences through gam- After some human tuning, Gemini’s chatbot
cover and buy things. disrupted. The expected launch of AI models ing and advice. While not real people, these can collaborate with advertisers on campaign
from Apple, Google, and others threaten an bots represent AI’s ability to gather data and objectives, target segments, and ideas for ex-
even greater paradigm change toward inte- connect with users in a more humanized, tra ad content. These tools automate tedious
grated, device-based discovery rather than tailored way. As this technology advances, creative tasks, allowing advertisers to instant-
browser-led journeys. In essence, where and marketers can leverage AI to deliver deeply ly produce customized images, text, and even
how people find products appears poised for customized content that dynamically adapts full campaigns tailored to their goals. And
disruption. Marketers must prepare for an to individuals’ preferences and behaviors generative AI abilities like text-to-image, text-
upcoming inflection point where search-cen- in real time. This interactivity creates more to-video, and text optimization further accel-
tric models cede ground to AI-powered, om- meaningful engagement between brands erate campaign ideation and production.
nipresent product discovery and recommen- and consumers.

HOW IS AI BEING USED IN MARKETING?

Anecdotal Observations, Now Usable
Marketing Data
Until recently, subtle human interactions and
reactions, like micro-expressions, were merely
anecdotal insights. However, advancements
in AI now allow us to quantify these observa-
tions and transform them into quantifiable
marketing data. Companies like Chooch use
Vision AI to efficiently search video data and
discern facial cues to understand consumer
engagement. In physical stores, similar tech-
nology can monitor customer responsiveness
to branding. Essentially, AI can convert once
subjective perceptions into hard analytics
to better personalize experiences. However,
while this data enables deeper personal-
ization, ethical questions remain regarding
consent and privacy when collecting such
intimate human insights. As the technology
progresses, regulations and corporate respon-
sibility practices must also evolve to protect
and respect consumers.
Companies must strike a balance between responsibly using consumer data to provide personalized offerings while avoiding intrusive tracking that could under-
mine customer trust.

HOW IS AI BEING USED IN PHARMA?
With a history stretching back to the 1960s as one of the earliest adopters of
computer technology, the pharmaceutical industry is now rapidly integrating
AI into drug discovery. By applying advanced algorithms to harness vast data
sets—from genomics to clinical trials—AI enables more targeted identification
of promising candidates and illuminates their interactions with disease path-
ways. This streamlines the overall R&D process, heightening productivity and
success rates while lowering costs. The acceleration and efficiency afforded by
AI promises to expand treatment options for previously untreatable diseases.
The gap between data-intensive computational labs and traditional wet labs is
closing, with AI-designed molecules already advancing to clinical trials.
In short, the long-developing foundation of computing in pharma is now bear-

ing fruit in the form of transformative AI applications spanning candidate
screening to preclinical validation—reshaping how medications are researched
and brought to market.
For deeper insights in how AI is being used in pharmaceuticals and life scienc-
es, see the Bioengineering report.
AlphaFold has now predicted the 3D shapes of almost all proteins in the human body, accomplishing in
just a few years what would have previously taken decades - or may have been impossible.

HOW IS AI BEING USED IN PHARMA?

Protein Folding expands coverage to model interactions with These examples reflect only a sample of the structure of known antibodies that work well.
In 2020, DeepMind’s AI made a big announce- additional molecules like ligands. By en- expansive AI drug discovery efforts under-
The designs produced by Absci’s system
ment: It had solved a 50-year grand challenge hancing AlphaFold’s capabilities, this latest way across academia and industry. Major
were both diverse (meaning, they didn’t have
with AlphaFold, an AI tool that predicts the iteration provides scientists a more powerful pharmaceutical leaders such as Johnson
counterparts known to already exist) and they
structure of proteins. AlphaFold outperformed tool to rapidly examine proteins and molec- & Johnson, Novartis, and AstraZeneca have
received a high score on “naturalness,” so they
an estimated 100 teams in a biennial pro- ular interactions for advancing fundamental already forged partnerships with AI startups.
would be easy to develop and therefore cata-
tein-structure prediction challenge called biology research and applications. The allure lies in deep learning’s unmatched
lyze a strong immune response. Using genera-
Critical Assessment of Structure Prediction, a speed and pattern recognition capabilities
AI-First Drug Development tive AI to design novel antibodies that func-
problem that has long vexed biologists. for parsing volumes of data. While AI cannot
tion at the same level––or even better––than
The COVID-19 pandemic sparked a surge in wholly replace lab science (yet), it signifi-
AlphaFold had previously bested other teams those designed by our own bodies marks a
AI applications for expediting drug discov- cantly accelerates prediction, design, and
but worked so quickly and so accurately that bold new step in using AI to reduce the speed
ery. An international research team demon- validation to streamline timelines.
it signaled a near future when the technology and cost of therapeutic antibody development.
strated this potential by crowdsourcing an
could be used regularly by other scientists. antiviral drug candidate in just 48 hours—a Generative Antibody Design
Along with the newest version of AlphaFold, process that traditionally takes months. An antibody is simply a protein that protects
DeepMind published full details of the system Separately, scientists at Ludwig-Maximil- an organism. Produced by the immune sys-
and released its source code. It also made a ians-Universität München developed an AI tem, antibodies bind to unwanted substanc-
stunning reveal: AlphaFold 2 has predicted model predicting where molecules can be es and eliminate them. In 2023, researchers
the shapes of nearly every protein in the hu- chemically altered. By reducing required from Absci Corp. showed how a generative AI
man body, as well as hundreds of thousands experiments, this enables more efficient, model was able to design multiple novel an-
of other proteins found in 20 of the most sustainable synthesis. Another University tibodies that bind to a target receptor, HER2,
widely studied organisms, including yeast, of Cambridge team created a platform that more tightly than previously known thera-
fruit flies, and mice. In a December 2023 up- automates experiments, then uses AI to peutic antibodies. What’s interesting about
date, Isomorphic Labs and DeepMind released forecast chemical reactions. Until recently, this work is that researchers first removed all
an improved AlphaFold model that predicts this was a trial-and-error process—which reference data on antibodies, so that the sys-
protein structures with greater accuracy and means that it was slow and inefficient. tem couldn’t just imitate and replicate the

HOW IS AI BEING USED IN HEALTH CARE?
The health care industry suffers from AI to Improve Patient Outcomes between doctors and patients. This clarifies scans to detect abnormalities, leveraging
ballooning expenses and inadequate AI can enable quicker, more accurate diag- therapeutic options and care decisions. In data from billions of procedures. Algorithms
nosis and treatment, driving better patient essence, AI boosts speed, accuracy, critical likewise forecast patient risk levels by assess-
human resourcing. As the COVID-19
outcomes. This impact is clear in managing care, self-care, and communication in health ing extensive health records, outperforming
pandemic spotlighted, doctor and
critical conditions like sepsis. Saint Luke’s care—all central to improving patient health. conventional clinical scores. As demonstrated
nurse shortages constrain delivery Health System implemented an AI sepsis in a Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center
capacity even in times of immense detection system, cutting the time to antibi- AI-Assisted Diagnosis and Clinical study, an AI chatbot even surpassed physi-
Decision-Making
need. AI could help make healthcare otic administration by 32%. It also reduced cians in diagnostic accuracy for negative test
cheaper, easier to access, and higher sepsis deaths by 16%. Since sepsis accounts People have long turned to search engines results—highlighting potential to close certain
for one in three hospital deaths nationwide, to self-diagnose, but the emergence of AI cognition gaps. However, risks around reliance
quality by automating routine tasks.
early AI detection and treatment could save chatbots like ChatGPT and Bing introduces a on potentially misinforming training data
AI has demonstrated the ability to an- new era of medical consultation. LLMs have
many lives. For example, UCHealth’s AI tool remain. If these can be addressed responsibly,
alyze certain types of test results as already demonstrated the ability to accu-
is estimated to save around 375 lives yearly, AI has immense capacity to streamline radiol-
accurately as physicians, and faster. and many more once it’s rolled out. rately provide potential diagnoses based on ogy, reduce errors, aid predictions, and make
However, regulatory hurdles delay symptom descriptions, achieving an 88% ac- consultation and reasons more accessible.
rollout of this technology. Safety reg- Beyond the hospital, AI also helps patients curacy rate in identifying the correct diagno-
better self-manage chronic diseases. Up to sis among the top three choices, compared Anomaly Detection in Medical Imaging
ulations developed for a human-cen-
70% make medication errors like incorrect to a 96% accuracy rate by physicians given Anomaly detection uses AI to detect abnor-
tered system now hinder AI adoption.
insulin doses. But AI tools quietly identify the same information. By processing natural malities in medical images, helping clinicians
Updating policies to allow ethical AI these errors at home, nudging patients with language descriptions, chatbots empower identify issues faster. Machine learning algo-
use, while still protecting patients, alerts to take their treatments properly. En- more user-friendly symptom investigation rithms have the capability to sift through ex-
would facilitate major progress. suring adherence promotes better outcomes. compared to rigid online symptom checkers. tensive medical data, including imaging and
Additionally, poor communication frustrates pathology reports, significantly faster than
83% of patients. By enabling natural lan- Beyond advising patients, AI also increas-
humans working alone. In radiology, AI’s abil-
guage processing and speech recognition, ingly assists clinician decisions. FDA-ap-
ity to pinpoint anomalies in medical images
AI can facilitate more meaningful dialogues proved systems already analyze imaging
is exceptionally accurate. Such early detection

significantly enhances patient outcomes for plays in surfacing hard-to-spot anomalies in ware improve, more intricate movements removed from CT images––and the deepfakes
conditions such as cancer, leading to reduced imaging. may be possible, granting patients liberty were good enough that radiologists didn’t
mortality rates. For example, UC Davis Health and control not felt for years post-accident. realize they were altered. (See our Health Care
has implemented Viz.ai, utilizing AI to ana- AI-powered movement Still, much testing remains before these & Medicine report.)
lyze CT scans and flag potential strokes. Even Groundbreaking medical research uses brain cyborg-esque applications become main-
Fortunately, tools to prevent misuse are in de-
though physicians still review all scans, the implants and artificial intelligence to give stream medicine.
velopment. For instance, DeepMind created AI
AI rapidly identifies anomalies to prioritize paralyzed patients control over their bod-
Medical Deepfakes watermarks to validate real medical images.
cases. Adoption of these AI tools is increasing, ies again. In early research, a quadriplegic
With ethical governance, medical deepfakes
as 2021 FDA approvals now allow integration patient can now move his arms and hands Medical deepfakes are AI-manipulated
could enable earlier disease detection and
into standard workflows rather than just simply by thinking about the action. This is medical images and data. While the term
protect patient privacy. However, safeguards
augmentation. IDx-DR uses AI to diagnose achieved through innovative neural bypass “deepfake” has negative associations, these
are crucial as these technologies advance to
diabetic retinopathy from retinal scans, while surgery, pioneered by scientists at North- technologies also have valuable clinical
maintain accuracy and trust.
Caption Health captures cardiac ultrasounds well Health. Microchips are embedded in the applications when used ethically. For exam-
that nurses can interpret quickly with just a brain in the regions that control movement ple, Korean researchers synthesized realistic
Healthcare-Specific LLMs
few days of AI software training. and sensation. Sophisticated AI algorithms mammograms using StyleGAN2 to improve
ChatGPT release in 2022 triggered a surge
then interface with the chips, interpreting breast cancer detection.
Concerned about AI replacing doctors? There in interest in applying natural language
the patient’s thought patterns and translat-
is already a critical shortage of physicians However, medical deepfakes could also be processing (NLP) to health care tasks like
ing desired actions into movement signals.
in rural areas. While AI can’t take the place used to unethically alter diagnostic images diagnosis and treatment recommendations.
of physicians, it can simplify their workload In a similar study, another patient regained by adding or removing medical conditions. However, most existing language models
especially when it comes to medical imag- control over his lower body with a spinal cord Cyber criminals are developing novel med- fail to capture the nuanced vocabulary and
ing, which could help to decrease the rate of implant that bypasses injury sites. Termed a ical deepfake attacks intended to bring semantics of medical language. Furthermore,
burnout, and enable them to dedicate more “digital bridge,” an AI thought decoder reads chaos to hospital systems and diagnostic general purpose LLMs, trained on extensive
attention to patient care. Though human his brain signals related to intended mo- centers. Researchers at Ben-Gurion Universi- data sets from across the internet, may have
review remains vital, these emerging auton- tions and matches them to the appropriate ty and the Soroka University Medical Center imbalanced weight distributions—potentially
omous systems prove the growing role AI muscle activations. As algorithms and hard- demonstrated that tumors could be added or overemphasizing content like Reddit posts

while underrepresenting reputable sources In-Silico Trials AI for Mental Health therapists, they can screen patients, provide
such as medical publications. To address this In-silico trials use computer simulations As mental health care systems struggle to psychoeducation, suggest coping strategies,
gap, researchers have developed domain-spe- rather than human subjects to test new meet rising demand globally, artificial in- and monitor conditions between appoint-
cific LLMs exclusively pretrained on large drugs and therapies. These digital trials, telligence presents new opportunities to in- ments with professionals.
medical corpora. For instance, BioBERT, which powered by artificial intelligence, create crease access to support services. Intelligent
is pretrained on PubMed articles, excels at “digital twins” that mimic human biology conversational agents like Replika that em-
biomedical text processing tasks, while Clin- and disease. By running thousands of virtual ulate emotional support show promise for
icalBERT leverages clinical notes to enhance trials, researchers can quickly and affordably addressing the student mental health crisis.
its performance on health care–related NLP predict how a drug might perform in human In one survey study of over 1,000 users, 3%
tasks. BlueBERT merges the strengths of both patients. This has the potential to dramati- even reported Replika halted their suicidal
biomedical and clinical training, making it a cally accelerate and improve the drug devel- thinking. The social connection and therapy
versatile model for a wide range of medical opment process. services such bots provide may help fill gaps
text analysis applications. Similarly, MedNLI for those awaiting treatment. Meanwhile,
focuses on clinical notes and natural lan- For example, a company called Novadiscov- University of Illinois Chicago researchers
guage inference, allowing for sophisticated ery used AI to accurately forecast the results piloted an AI voice assistant called Lumen
understanding and prediction in clinical con- of a Phase III clinical trial, showing the prom- that delivers talk therapy content. The virtual
texts. Google recently unveiled Med-PaLM— ise of this approach. In-silico trials may one coach improved patient depression and anx-
among the largest medical LLMs to date— day replace up to half of human testing. Reg- iety, while brain scans revealed correspond-
which proves highly accurate in answering ulators are looking at how to include these ing neurological changes—demonstrating
US Medical Licensing Examination questions virtual results in the approval process. New legitimacy as a stopgap measure.
and consumer health queries. The family of frameworks to validate in-silico trials will be
Med-PaLM models available through Google important to ensure reliability. By moderniz- As mental health demands escalate globally,
Cloud enables a sweeping range of precision ing clinical trials with AI and simulations, we AI virtual assistants and chatbots could aid
health care applications. can bring innovative treatments to patients overwhelmed systems by offering readily ac-
faster and more affordably. cessible support. While not replacing human

HOW IS AI BEING USED IN SCIENCE?
After nearly 2,000 years, AI has finally unlocked the secrets inside ancient AI-Driven Hypotheses Their algorithms have successfully predicted
scrolls flash-fried by Mount Vesuvius’ eruption in 79 AD. The Vesuvius Challenge, AI is changing the way scientists ask ques- drug repurposing opportunities and novel
tions and form hypotheses. With the help of material properties that were later validated
launched in early 2023, aimed to develop an AI system capable of deciphering
LLMs, knowledge graphs, and algorithmic by human research.
these fossilized scrolls—known as the Herculaneum Papyri—rescued from an
analysis, researchers can now tap into vast
ancient Roman library. Its success could save an invaluable trove of literature databases of scientific literature, uncov-
While AI has shown a propensity for generat-
and history from extinction. ing specific, concrete hypotheses, interest is
er hidden connections, and propose novel
rising in its ability to propose more abstract
hypotheses that might have remained un-
In February, translated excerpts revealed one scroll’s author—likely the philos- and general theories. This involves not just
discovered through conventional methods.
opher Philodemus—wrote about music, food and embracing life’s pleasures. He Tools like PaperQA and Elicit employ LLMs to
solving predefined problems but uncovering
rebukes opponents unable to appreciate enjoyment. This represents just 5% of fundamental principles that can guide future
sift through extensive databases of scien-
research across various domains. A collabo-
the text from one scroll, but demonstrates AI’s immense potential. Deciphering tific articles, producing concise summaries
rative approach described by the University of
these delicate, charred scrolls would have been impossible without AI. The proj- that include relevant citations. These AI-driv-
Chicago’s Sendhil Mullainathan and Jens Lud-
ect illustrates how AI could optimize science by radically accelerating the pace en summaries can serve as a foundation for
wig in a paper posits AI and humans working
developing new hypotheses by highlighting
of innovation across fields. While the essence of the scientific method endures, together to generate broad hypotheses from
key findings, trends, and gaps in the current
AI promises to transform each stage of discovery. complex data sets, illustrating the potential
body of knowledge. Furthermore, by ana-
for AI to contribute to a deeper understanding
lyzing existing literature and data, AI can
of complex phenomena.
identify blind spots in research—areas that
have been overlooked or underexplored. Uni- AI-Driven Experimentation
versity of Chicago researchers James Evans
Beyond hypothesis, AI is also accelerating
and Jamshid Sourati showed this by using
scientific experimentation itself—both in
knowledge graphs not only to map out con-
simulation and the real world. Researchers
nections between materials, properties, and
at Caltech are exploring how they can use AI
researchers but also to find unconventional
models to conduct virtual experiments. The
pathways that could lead to new discoveries.

team employed an AI fluid simulation model AI-Powered Analysis and Interpretation AI and the Replication Crisis tion to promoting greater rigor and reproduc-
to automatically design a better catheter that AI also stands to change how and who does The replication crisis in science refers to a ibility in the scientific process.
prevents infections. For real-world experi- the interpretation and analysis of scientific widespread problem where many scientif-
mentation many researchers are turning to NLP Algorithms Detect Virus Mutations
data. As AI tools become more integrated ic studies, particularly in psychology and
“self-driving labs”—automated robotic plat- into research methodologies, they lower the social sciences, cannot be replicated or Natural language processing (NLP) algo-
forms infused with AI. For instance, Emerald entry barriers, enabling a diverse group of reproduced by other researchers, casting rithms, which are typically used for words and
Cloud Lab is a research facility that handles new scientists, including those without doubt on the reliability of their findings. sentences, are also being used to interpret
daily lab work without the researcher actually formal data science training, to contribute Many published studies fail to yield consis- genetic changes in viruses. Protein sequences
having to set foot in the physical lab space. meaningfully to scientific discourse. The tent results when experiments are repeat- and genetic codes can be modeled using NLP
Using AI, the lab can autonomously handle fear of criticism from established experts, a ed. To assess research integrity efficiently techniques—and can be manipulated the way
everything from method design to instrument significant deterrent for novice researchers, without costly manual replication, research- you’d produce text in word processing soft-
operation to data acquisition and analysis. In is mitigated as AI provides guidance on best ers developed an AI algorithm to predict a ware. At MIT, computational biologists used
2023, a study published in Nature showcased practices and ensures the credibility of their study’s likelihood of successful reproduction NLP to solve a vexing problem when develop-
how a self-operating lab sped up the creation analyses. Moreover, as AI grows more adept based on analysis of over 14,000 psychology ing new vaccines. “Viral escape” is the ability
of new materials. Within just 17 days of non- at understanding and generating insights papers. By identifying factors that contrib- for a virus to mutate and evade the human
stop work, this autonomous lab successfully from multimodal data, including visualiza- ute to or detract from replicability, this tool immune system and cause infection. MIT
produced 41 new substances, targeting 58 dif- tions, it offers a more intuitive and acces- allows researchers, journals and funding researchers modeled viral escape using NLP to
ferent materials including various oxides and sible way for independent researchers to agencies to focus resources on the most identify how the virus might look different to
phosphates. The high success rate shows the explore and contribute to various scientific robust, reliable science. Moving forward, the the immune system. The approach is similar
promise of AI-powered platforms for autono- fields. This shift not only expands the pool ability to estimate replication probability be- to changing words in a sentence to change
mous experimentation, especially for auton- of researchers but also enriches scientific fore peer review could guide adjustments to its meaning. For example: “I laughed at the
omous materials discovery (see “AI to Speed inquiry with a wider range of perspectives improve study design as well as inform pol- clown” versus “I cried at the clown.” By using
Up New Materials Development”). and ideas. icy shaped by scientific evidence. If scaled this kind of modeling before mutations occur,
across disciplines, AI-enabled replication public health officials could strategize and
forecasting presents a cost-effective solu- potentially prevent new viral spreads.


AI to Speed Up New Materials Development
Running experiments with several variables
often requires tiny, methodical tweaks to
measurements, materials, and inputs. Grad-
uate students might spend hundreds of
tedious hours repeatedly making small ad-
justments until they find a solution—a waste
of their cognitive abilities, and their time.
Unlike graduate students, AI doesn’t have
to sleep. For instance, Google DeepMind’s AI
program, GNoME, has significantly expanded
the database of stable materials, identifying
380,000 new potentially stable crystals from
a vast prediction of 2.2 million. This break-
through, published in Nature, demonstrates
AI’s capacity to enhance our understanding
of material stability and composition without
the constraints of human biases or limita-
tions. In a set of subsequent experiments
(aforementioned in AI-driven experimenta-
tion), an autonomous lab was able to create
41 of the theorized materials over 17 days. This
demonstrates the capabilities of both the AI
discovery model and the lab’s robotic tech- Researchers are developing automated laboratory systems that use AI to independently handle processes from operating scientific instruments to performing re-
niques. al-time data analysis.

HOW IS AI BEING USED IN FINANCE?
AI has many uses in finance, like cus- Mitigating Fraud transactions that might elude traditional
tomized services and fraud detection. Financial institutions are increasingly utiliz- detection methods, offering a more robust
ing AI to detect and reduce fraud. Advanced defense against financial crimes. Similarly,
It can help forecast assets and market
machine learning models can identify suspi- the Bank of Canada has developed a machine
trends. However, AI also poses finan- If we enter into a world where learning-based tool designed to spot irregular-
cious patterns in immense volumes of trans-
cial risks. It could enable new types of all the banks are using this action data that humans alone may miss. ities in regulatory submissions. According to
fraud and cybercrime. There are also
major technology, are we This allows companies to catch more fraud Maryam Haghighi, the bank’s data science di-
concerns about overreliance on a few attempts sooner. For example, several major rector, this tool conducts automatic daily anal-
centralized AI systems for decision
going to see supercharged banks have invested heavily in developing yses that can uncover discrepancies human
making. If these systems make mis- herding behavior? Are we proprietary AI fraud prevention systems. By inspectors might miss, thereby increasing
going to see AI bots that are continually monitoring for anomalies, these efficiency and allowing staff to allocate more
takes, it could spark a “polycrisis.”
algorithms have enabled substantial reduc- time to investigate these anomalies further.
Bad decisions could compound, turn- sentiment-driven and feed tions in losses from fraudulent activities.
ing small issues into major crises. off each other, and you then JP Morgan Chase invested $100 million into Predicting Financial Risk
developing sophisticated anti-fraud tech- AI systems can help improve loan underwriting
end up with much bigger
nologies for consumer payments, leading and reduce financial risk. Models are being
amplitudes in the financial to a notable 14% decrease in fraud incidents trained to recognize anomalous activity and to
cycle—so big credit booms between 2017 and 2021. develop forecasts for a variety of middle—and
back-office applications. For example, US Bank
and busts. I’m not saying it’s The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) relies on deep learning to analyze customer
imminent, but this is something Innovation Hub’s Project Aurora has also data as well as to root out money laundering
demonstrated the effectiveness of neural
we’re paying attention to. schemes. On a larger scale, the European Cen-
networks, a branch of machine learning, tral Bank (ECB) has integrated AI to advance
—Gita Gopinath, International Monetary
in combating money laundering. These oversight across millions of businesses and
Fund’s first deputy managing director
advanced systems excel in detecting irreg- government entities. By automatically classify-
ular patterns and anomalies in financial ing information, the technology helps identify

HOW IS AI BEING USED IN FINANCE?
stability threats early by uncovering patterns. OpenInvest allows investors to integrate their rors and amplifying mistakes. We have seen
The ECB also web scrapes pricing data for personal values directly into their invest- how interconnected markets can lead to a
real-time inflation analysis to stay ahead of ment strategies. The platform’s generative crisis when institutions mimic each other’s
macro risk shifts. AI also aids ECB bank ex- AI technology enables the customization of actions without independent thought, as
aminers; algorithms rapidly parse volumes of a client’s entire portfolio, including external in the 2008 housing crash. Some worry the
filings to surface compliance issues or other assets, based on their specified values. On rise of cutting-edge generative AI could fuel
red flags. the European front, Amundi, managing over 2 herd mentalities, if banks and funds utilize
trillion euros in assets, leverages AI to tailor the same basic signals and models from
Customized Portfolios investment portfolios for its vast clientele. By one or two dominant providers. That could
Socially conscious investing is entering gathering clients’ risk preferences, Amundi’s potentially concentrate risk, create confor-
the mainstream as young investors assert AI tools can dynamically adjust portfolios, mity, and set the stage for panic and conta-
their consciences and wield new purchasing offering a real-time reflection of investor gion across the system. Furthermore, if the
power. As Gen Z starts working and financial sentiment. leading models have flaws, or the data sets
planning, demand will surge for customized themselves provide a distorted view, it could
investment portfolios matching personal Growing Concern About Centralized lead institutions toward harmful decisions
Data Sets
values. This techie, purpose-driven genera- en masse. So if an unprecedented shock
tion wants their dollars supporting cherished The growing reliance on centralized data hits markets, AI could end up exacerbating
causes—two-thirds aim to back companies sources and AI models in finance raises con- volatility and dysfunction. These opaque
upholding their principles around environ- cerns about potential fragility in the system. algorithms can quickly turn negative loops
mental, social, and governance (ESG) con- As a few large tech companies come to lead and contagion. This could be viewed as a
cerns. AI can help with this values-based the AI space, providing the models and data polycrisis —when multiple crashes converge,
investing by enabling asset managers to that power financial decision-making, risks the combined crisis proves more damaging
AI systems are now used in finance for predictive
efficiently build highly customized portfolios emerge. Market participants could end up than isolated events. risk analytics, fraud detection, and regulatory over-
aligned with each client’s ethics. JPMorgan drawing from the same narrow set of flawed
sight by rapidly surfacing patterns that may have
Asset & Wealth Management’s acquisition of data or algorithms, modeling the same er-
been invisible to human analysts.

HOW IS AI BEING USED IN INSURANCE?

Predicting Workplace Injuries The Connected Worker Improving Damage Assessment traditional, human counterparts: they can pro-
AI systems are being trained to detect possi- Insurers are pursuing a “connect and pro- Insurance companies are applying AI to vide more services at a lower cost, they’re able
ble workplace injuries. Using AI-based com- tect” approach to reduce risks by leveraging assess damage and improve forecasts. The to digest and interpret mounds of data in real
puter vision models, Turkey-based Intenseye advanced sensors and artificial intelligence. Vehicle Damage Inspection model, which time, and they don’t take part of the weekend
can detect 40 types of employee health and New Internet of Things devices worn by is available on AWS Marketplace, uses a off to golf. Wealthfront is an AI-powered system
safety incidents in real time. The compa- workers or installed in insured locations machine learning model to determine what for consumers: It suggests fund managers and
ny says that it does not capture personally can continuously gather safety-relevant part of a car is damaged. After photos are calculates probable risk levels based on the
identifiable information from the visual data data. This massively expands visibility into uploaded, it assesses loss and dramatical- user’s personal information and preferences.
it processes and that it detected 1.8 million hazards before losses occur. For instance, ly reduces the amount of time required for
AI Claims Processing
unsafe acts in 2020 and 2021. San Francisco Honeywell provides smart hardhats with human appraisers to conduct their analysis.
based Voxel uses computer vision to enable fatigue sensors, heart rate monitors and Following catastrophic typhoons and weath- While human claims writers must painstak-
security cameras to automatically detect more to enhance worker safety. The resulting er events in Japan, local insurance compa- ingly review pictures and reports to assess
high-risk activities in real time. Caterpillar, streams of biological and environmental nies are relying on computer vision to assess damage, compare what they see to coverage
in collaboration with Seeing Machines, an data feed into AI safety dashboards. Man- damage after a natural disaster. Sompo policies, and make a determination about
Australian company, has launched a technol- agers gain real-time insight on emerging Japan is using the Tractable AI Estimating appropriate actions, an AI system can digest
ogy that detects driver fatigue through eye risks across worksites to guide preventa- system to calculate the approximate repair the same data and accomplish the same
and facial movement analysis. If the system tive interventions. Worker wearables could cost of damaged homes. work in a matter of minutes. Using a suite of
observes that a driver’s eyes remain closed for enable employers to monitor and safeguard tools—natural language processing for policy
more than 1.6 seconds, it initiates an alert in- entire workflows. Yet, at the same time, this Consumer-Facing Robo-Advisers review, and computer vision recognition to
side the truck. Should the behavior persist, a intensive data gathering and monitoring Automated assistants are moving from spot anomalies in photos and videos—claims
second alert notifies a supervisor, and a third raises worries of overly intrusive Big Broth- the fringe to the mainstream as consumer can be processed efficiently and, it’s believed,
alert often leads to the driver being taken off er–level surveillance. Companies that appear adoption increases. Robo-advisers offer algo- more accurately. AI-powered claims process-
duty. Besides identifying fatigue, the technol- to excessively pry may meet marketplace rithm-based portfolio management advice to ing reduces the overhead for businesses and
ogy is adept at detecting instances of driver resistance despite promised safety gains. investors, applying parameters like risk toler- wait times for customers. Some insurance
distraction, contributing to a reduction in ance and desired returns. These investment providers are wading into a new pool of op-
fatigue-related incidents by as much as 90%. tools offer some tangible benefits over their portunities. Liberty Mutual’s mobile app has

HOW IS AI BEING USED IN INSURANCE?
started to integrate ML for damage assess-

ment—it informs customers about their cov-
erage and next steps.
Liability Insurance for AI

Who’s to blame when machines behave
badly? When the machine learning system
in Uber’s self-driving car failed and killed an
Arizona pedestrian, the company was likely
not covered under traditional cyber insurance.
As businesses rush to build and implement
AI products and processes, they must plan for
emerging risks. For example, what happens if
machine learning makes a company vulnera-
ble to attackers who inject fake training data
into a system? What if a health care compa-
ny’s AI misinterprets data and neglects to
identify cancer in certain patients?
These problems could put a company at risk

of lawsuits, and new insurance models are
needed to address these issues. Underwriters
are starting to include AI under cyber insur-
ance plans, while specialty insurers such as
La Playa’s Science and Tech Insurance now Insurance companies are deploying sensors in equipment and safety gear to predict injuries, hoping to preemptively eliminate hazards rather than just compensate
offer coverage for AI applications. workplace harm after the fact.

CREATIVITY
AND
DESIGN

HOW ARE PEOPLE USING AI TO BE MORE CREATIVE?
New research shows AI demonstrates very high levels of creativity, scoring in GAN-Assisted Creativity design GANs accelerate iteration by proposing
the top 1% on standard tests. Scientists at the University of Montana tested Generative adversarial networks (GANs) are reimagined building layouts and conceptual
unlocking new creative possibilities across spaces. Rather than replacing imagination,
ChatGPT using the Torrance Tests of Creative Thinking, which assess human
a range of artistic disciplines. DALL-E 3 and GANs serve as an endless springboard for
creativity skills like coming up with lots of new ideas. Shockingly, ChatGPT
other AI image generators are powered by a human creators—providing inspiration to
beat out nearly all college students by scoring higher than 99% of people for combination of existing algorithms—fusing stretch creative boundaries in tandem with
originality. It showed an extreme creative talent at inventing brand new con- the creativity of GANs and the text com- this AI muse. Across disciplines, GANs liberate
cepts nobody has thought of before. The AI also did well at producing large prehension capabilities of transformers. designers to explore new frontiers.
volumes of ideas. This enables intuitive image creation from
Neural Rendering
conversational prompts. Users can simply
While such revelations might initially spark fears of being replaced, another describe desired images, realistic or ab- Starting with a 2D image, researchers can
perspective is that this means AI could be a very creative collaborative part- stract, and the model will digitally paint cus- now create a rich 3D view of a scene by us-
ner. For those already engaged in creative pursuits, AI can serve as an invalu- tom photographic illustrations on demand. ing a neural network to capture and generate
able companion, augmenting their ability to generate innovative ideas and With each new prompt, it remixes its broad spatial imagery. Called neural rendering, the
visual knowledge to translate text into novel process captures a photorealistic scene in 3D
solutions. Those who possess creative visions but lack the technical skills to
graphical forms. Sora and Pika, idea-to-video by calculating the density and color of points
fully realize them can leverage AI as a tool to bridge that gap. in space. The algorithm converts 2D pixels
platforms, do the same for videos.
into voxels, which are a 3D equivalent. The
Creative applications for these tools are result is a video which looks convincingly real.
widespread across artforms and disciplines. The many applications for neural rendering
In graphic design, GAN-enabled features in include amping up autonomous driving to
Adobe Photoshop automate tedious edit- help train algorithms to recognize and react
ing so designers can ideate faster. Fashion to novel road situations. This technology will
GANs remix clothing and textile data sets influence the future of video games, virtual re-
into refreshing one-of-a-kind garment and ality, and emerging metaverse environments.
fabric patterns. Architecture and interior


Generating Virtual Environments From real-world applications are immense. For like AI Hub are organically forming to offer
Short Videos
example, the capability to easily produce 3D guidance and collaboration. With over 21,000
Nvidia has developed an AI system called worlds could significantly bring down costs members, such groups allow music creators
Neuralangelo that creates realistic 3D en- for CG in movies and TV production. Video to teach each other techniques, share artist
vironments automatically from short video game developers also stand to benefit, as voice models, and troubleshoot projects as
clips. It uses AI algorithms called GANs and they can use Neuralangelo to rapidly create participants collectively push boundaries on
has been trained on open-source self-driving fresh 3D assets and environments for their what is achievable.
car data sets. Specifically, Neuralangelo takes virtual worlds. This allows for unique styling
video segments categorized by objects like while reducing the need for extensive human Underpinning these innovations is a com-
buildings, trees, and vehicles, and uses them modeling. Furthermore, architects and urban mon thread: AI democratizing music produc-
to generate novel graphics. Using short clips planners can utilize the system to quickly tion. Once the domain of recording studios
segmented into various categories—such as visualize and iterate on building and city and audio engineers, creating professional
buildings, sky, vehicles, signs, trees, or peo- designs at low cost. or personalized music is now available to
ple—the GANs created new, different versions everyday creators through such technolo-
of these objects. The array of possible appli- AI Democratizes Music Production gies. Even imperfect raw recordings can be
cations is vast. Automatically generated vir- revitalized, as Paul McCartney recently un-
A wave of AI voice and music startups has
tual environments could be used for movies, veiled an AI-restored long-lost vocal track by
emerged over the past year, aiming to revo-
bringing down the costs of TV production. The John Lennon that became the foundation for
lutionize audio editing and creation. Com-
ability to procedurally generate realistic 3D a new Beatles song. From sonic preservation
panies like Descript and Voicemod now offer
environments and assets could significantly to imaginative generation, AI empowers both
tools that can manipulate speech—opening
enhance video game development. It allows novices and experts to shape soundscapes
possibilities like effortless podcast clean-
for unique worlds and reduces modeling in previously unthinkable ways.
up or even mimicking celebrity voices. For
Companies like Nvidia have developed AI systems
costs. Architects and urban planners can use music, Google’s experimental Dream Track
Automatic Ambient Noise Dubbing capable of generating realistic 3D environments
the system to visualize and iterate on build- lets users generate original songs in the from short video clips. This could lower the barrier
ing and city designs more quickly. It super- For some time, we’ve been training comput-
style of famous artists through simple text to entry to movie production and game design.
charges prototyping capabilities. The possible ers to watch videos and predict correspond-
prompts. As interest grows, communities

ing sounds in our physical world. For example, debuted via Google’s AI Test Kitchen as an
what sound is generated when a wooden experimental demo. By May, it was publicly
drumstick taps a couch? A pile of leaves? A accessible so anyone can create AI-generat-
glass windowpane? The focus of this reed music through text prompts or whistling.
search, underway at MIT’s Computer Science Users can specify instruments and moods.
and Artificial Intelligence Laboratory, should However, MusicLM has sparked debates
help systems understand how objects inter- around copyright issues. Critics argue that
act with each other in the physical realm. This because MusicLM learns by analyzing large
could improve the soundscapes created for sets of existing songs, it may illegally use
AI-generated movies—but it might also help copyrighted material without artist permis-
us imagine soundscapes for both imaginary sion when generating its music. Lawsuits
worlds (Laconia, from The Expanse) and real around AI music copyright are expected that
ones (Mars). may impact systems like MusicLM.
Generating Music From Text

MusicLM is an AI system created by Google
that can transform text descriptions into
high-quality musical compositions. For ex-
ample, it can turn a text prompt like “upbeat
pop song with piano” into an actual 24 kHz
audio clip matching that description. What
makes MusicLM special is its ability to accu-
rately capture the emotion and style details AI music composition tools can now generate original melodies and harmonies from text prompts. Other
described in text when generating music. audio AI tools are can convincingly synthesize plausible sounds to match visuals without requiring re-
It also adapts hummed melodies into full al-world recordings.
song arrangements. In May 2023, MusicLM

HOW IS AI DISRUPTING THE CREATIVE INDUSTRY?
As AI becomes increasingly integrat- AI-Assisted Invention on this topic this year. Under new contract
ed into creative workflows, the in- Stable Diffusion, MidJourney, DALL-E3, terms, studios “cannot use AI to write scripts
and ChatGPT-4 are now widely accessible or to edit scripts that have already been
dustry faces pivotal questions about
to end-consumers, leading to AI-assisted written by a writer,” according to comedian
intellectual property, the ethics of
human creativity. But these systems were Adam Conover, who spoke on behalf of the
AI-generated content, and the future all trained using other artists’ works. If a Writers Guild of American negotiating com-
of human-AI collaboration in arts business uses an AI-generated image, video, mittee. The newest contract also prevents
and business. This dynamic interplay or text for commercial purposes, does it owe studios from treating AI-generated content
between technology and creativi- anything to those whose original works were as “source material,” like a novel or a stage
ty not only opens new avenues for used for training? Likewise, what if a gen- play, that screenwriters could be assigned to
erative AI system invents a product that’s adapt for a lower fee and less credit than a
invention and expression but also
eligible for a patent? fully original script.
ignites debates on the legal and
ethical implications of AI’s role in the In 2021, the South African government grant- New Business Models
creative process. ed a patent to an AI system called Dabus, A philosophical fork is emerging in how cre-
which invented a method to interlock food ators respond to AI. While some double down
containers. It was a world-first: previously, on safeguarding their intellectual property,
patents had only been awarded to humans. others adopt an “if you can’t beat ’em, join
In the US, the application was rejected, ’em” ethos, choosing to embrace AI as a part-
with a judge citing case law stipulating Rather than tightly controlling their creative IP,
ner instead of as a threat. Grimes sits firmly
that only a human can hold a patent. There some artists are openly embracing AI to pioneer
in the latter camp, recently unveiling a plan
may be business cases for an AI to hold a new business models - training generative sys-
to share 50% of earnings from any AI-syn-
patent rather than an individual. It raises tems on their aesthetic so fans can discover or
thesized songs that use her voice. The artist even co-create derivative works, fostering engaged
the question: What happens when AI sys- positions herself at the forefront of this new communities and unlocking new profit streams in
tems co-invent, or even entirely invent, new business approach, highlighting the idea the process.
products? We’re likely to hear more debate that AI can enhance production rather than

HOW IS AI DISRUPTING THE CREATIVE INDUSTRY?
replace it. She sees AI as a partner that can tract establishes safeguards ensuring that
free up human creativity instead of supplant- AI technologies remain under the control of
ing human creativity. Avant-garde musician human workers rather than being utilized by
Holly Herndon pioneered a similar fan part- employers as a substitute for human talent.
nership model back in 2021, enabling collec- Parallel to the concerns in Hollywood, a no-
tive remixing of her signature sound under table lawsuit has been filed against OpenAI
prescribed conditions. Still, tensions churn by a collective of distinguished authors,
within creative circles around these digital- including John Grisham, Jonathan Franzen,
ly-driven opportunities. Both views show seri- and Elin Hilderbrand, and spearheaded by
ous efforts to understand huge changes and the Authors Guild. It accuses OpenAI of copy-
figure out how to use them positively. right infringement for allegedly training its
ChatGPT chatbot on copyrighted books with-
Legal Battles Between Writers and AI out authorization or compensation to the
As AI generative writing capabilities rap- authors. The plaintiffs argue that ChatGPT’s
idly advance, friction is rising between the ability to generate “derivative works” that
technology and professional human writers. closely mimic and summarize their books
This apprehension has been highlighted by could detrimentally affect the market for
significant events such as the Hollywood the original works. The case, filed in the US
writers’ strike and a surge in lawsuits aimed District Court for the Southern District of
at protecting copyright interests. The strike New York, highlights the tension between
recently concluded with the Writers Guild of the advancement of AI technology and the
America securing an agreement that intro- protection of intellectual property rights.
duces measures to regulate AI’s role in the Writers worry increasingly capable AI narrative generation poses an existential threat. They fear that au-
creative process. Although the use of AI tools tomated writing could make their skills redundant and jobs interchangeable. However, some wrtiers are
has not been outright banned, the new con- using AI as a tool to boost their own creatitivy and automate aspects of their workflow.

SCENARIOS

SCENARIOS
SCENARIO YEAR 2024
The Deepfake Mafia

AeroTech Innovations is a seemingly reputable company that boasts cutting-edge aerospace components that are sourced for commer-
cial airlines. This company, with its extensive online presence, sophisticated marketing campaigns, and convincing video testimonials
from high-profile business leaders, quickly gains the trust of major airlines searching for competitive edges in efficiency and safety.
With digital footprints of thousands of employees on LinkedIn, AeroTech appears to operate on a global scale. Its website features video
testimonials from well-known industry figures, praising the revolutionary impact of AeroTech’s products on their operations. The com-
pany’s adept use of digital platforms to showcase its expertise and the supposed reliability of its parts does not go unnoticed. It’s man-
aged to navigate the complex procurement processes of multinational airlines with ease, providing detailed digital 3D models of com-
ponents for review.
As AeroTech secures contracts, the company begins supplying airlines with parts promoted as state-of-the-art that are in fact sophisti-
cated 3D-printed components designed to fail. These parts are engineered to withstand initial testing but are programmed to degrade
after a specific number of flight hours, threatening catastrophic failures mid-flight.
The chilling reality is that AeroTech Innovations does not exist. It is the brainchild of a small group of four terrorists, leveraging advanced
deepfake technology and digital manipulation to create a facade of a global corporation. The LinkedIn profiles were all AI generated, the
video testimonials of real leaders were all deepfaked. AeroTech represents a new frontier of weaponized fakery; no longer just isolated
fakes of individuals but comprehensive illusions constructing an entire company from whole cloth.

SCENARIOS
SCENARIO YEAR 2027
TrailMate SLM
Morgan embarks on the ambitious journey to traverse the 2,190 miles of the Appalachian Trail, equipped with an REI de-
vice called TrailMate SLM, a compact AI gadget designed to serve as a natural language personal hiking assistant. The
small language model (SLM) embedded in the AI device covers topics like basic first aid and safety, cooking and food
handling techniques, and plant identification, making it an indispensable tool for any hiker.
Knowing he’ll be without a signal during parts of his hike, Morgan is grateful for the TrailMate SLM. The device’s abili-
ty to function offline ensures that, even in the absence of a signal, he will have a reliable source of guidance. For more
complex inquiries when in range of a signal, the device can connect to a larger, more comprehensive language model
through a subscription service.
Opting for cost and space efficiency, Morgan chose the basic TrailMate SLM over the premium version. The premium
model, while offering more detailed responses and a larger database, required a bulkier battery pack and sacrificed pre-
cious backpack space. This decision meant accepting a tradeoff in the level of detail available from the TrailMate SLM.
Despite this compromise, Morgan feels prepared, buoyed by years of backpacking experience. This journey is not just a
test of physical endurance but a leap of faith in the power of technology to augment human resilience and adaptability.

SCENARIOS
SCENARIO YEAR 2028
Centralized AI Belt and Road Infrastructure Crumbles

In Jakarta, Indonesia, a shocked finance minister hastily convenes an emergency meeting after volatile trading erased
nearly a third of the IDX Composite index value in just three days. Investigations reveal the startling catalyst—a subtle
data anomaly in AI-optimized stock recommendations from SinoTech, a Chinese tech company powering many Indone-
sian banks’ investment advisory services.
Upon discovery, revelation spreads that numerous Chinese AI providers across Southeast Asia share common LLM at a
state-owned entity. Realization dawns that dependence on these technologies has silently concentrated risk and wo-
ven tight coupling across ASEAN markets. Though no evidence shows coordinated attack, herd behavior amplified by
opaque Chinese predictive systems nearly collapsed interconnected regional exchanges.
Hard lessons are learned on the perils of external centralized data dependence as the unified ecosystem strategy that
propelled China’s AI success proves its Achilles heel. The crisis births calls for data transparency, decentralized collabo-
ration, and renewed focus on nurturing domestic capabilities to avoid future shocks. Indonesia spearheads the Digital
Sovereignty Initiative, providing subsidies for homegrown startups to counter reliance on imported AI tech.

SCENARIOS
SCENARIO YEAR 2030
Tabby the Tiger: Nurturing Curiosity Through AI Friendship

Tyler, a curious and imaginative 8-year-old, receives a special gift from his parents: a plush tiger named Tabby. Tabby
is embedded with an AI chatbot designed to be Tyler’s new friend under the innovative “friendship first” model of early
schooling. This model leverages the natural dynamics of friendship to foster learning and personal growth in children,
with the AI chatbot subtly guiding conversations to educational topics.
Tabby, with its vast repository of knowledge, gently brings up science and math topics, using stories, games, and ques-
tions to spark Tyler’s curiosity. For instance, when Tyler gets curious about why some toys are more expensive than oth-
ers, Tabby introduces the basics of supply and demand. This sparks an idea in Tyler’s mind, leading him to set up a lem-
onade stand in his front yard. With Tabby’s guidance, Tyler works out that he should raise or lower the price of lemonade
based on the weather. If it’s warm out, he can raise the price. If it’s raining, he should lower the price. This hands-on
activity not only entertains Tyler but also solidifies the economic principles of supply and demand in his young mind.
The beauty of this model is its subtlety; learning is not forced but emerges naturally from the bond they share. Tyler is
not just absorbing information; he is inspired to learn more, explore further, and dream bigger.
As months go by, Tyler’s parents notice a remarkable transformation in their son. Reflecting on this, Tyler’s parents can’t
help but draw parallels to their own childhood friendships that shaped their interests and careers. They realize that Tab-
by is not just a toy or a learning tool but a true friend who has opened a world of possibilities for Tyler.

SCENARIOS
SCENARIO YEAR 2040
What If “Thought-to-3D” Was an AI Modality?

It’s Monday morning and Maya settles in at her home office, excited to make progress on a new product design that
came to her in the shower. As founder of a startup creating sustainable kitchenware, inspiration strikes at odd hours,
often fading quickly. But now Maya simply puts on her Muse Cap linked to her Thought-to-3D AI system and mentally fo-
cuses on visualizing her idea—an ergonomic spatula with a unique twisted handle for comfort and control while cooking.
As Maya concentrates, the Muse Cap’s brain activity sensors—basically a mini FMRI machine—capture her visualization
data and feed it into the generative AI application. Within minutes, a 3D model of the spatula takes shape on screen,
automatically matched to Maya’s thoughts. She inspects it from all angles, edits a few details by voice command, then
hits print. The 3D printer at her downtown office soon produces an initial tangible prototype that Maya can pick up later
after dropping off the kids from school. She plans to test it while she cooks dinner that evening. If it works, she’ll send it
out tomorrow for manufacturing.
With the Muse Cap, this morning’s shower thought could be tomorrow’s revenue stream.

AUTHORS &
CONTRIBUTORS

AUTHORS & CONTRIBUTORS
AMY WEBB
Chief Executive Officer
Recognized as the global leader in strategic fore- Amy also serves as a professor of strategic foresight at New York University’s Stern
sight, Amy Webb advises business leaders through School of Business, where she developed and teaches the MBA-level strategic foresight
disruptive change, enabling them to navigate an course with live case studies. She is a Visiting Fellow at Oxford University’s Säid School
unpredictable future with confidence and take of Business. She was elected a life member of the Council on Foreign Relations and is a
actions that address global challenges, create member of the Bretton Woods Committee. She is a Steward and Steering Committee
sustainable value, and ensure a company’s long-term growth. As founder and CEO of Member for the World Economic Forum, a founding member of the Forum’s Strategic
the Future Today Institute, Amy pioneered a unique quantitative modeling approach Foresight Council, a member of the Forum’s Risk Advisory Council, and serves on the
and data-driven foresight methodology that identifies signals of change and emerg- Forum’s Global Futures Council. She was a Delegate on the former U.S.-Russia Bilateral
ing patterns very early. Using that information, Amy and her colleagues identify white Presidential Commission, representing US interests in technology.
spaces, opportunities, and threats early enough for action. They develop predictive
Regarded as one of the most important voices on the futures of technology (with spe-
scenarios, along with executable strategy, for their global client base. In 2023, Amy
cializations in both AI and synthetic biology), Amy is the author of four books, including
was recognized as the #4 most influential management thinker in the world by
the international bestseller The Big Nine and her most recent, The Genesis Machine,
Thinkers50, a biannual ranking of global business thinkers. She was also featured on
which was listed as one of the best nonfiction books of 2022 by The New Yorker. To
the 2021 Thinkers 50 list, was shortlisted for the 2021 Digital Thinking Award, and re-
date, her books have been translated into 19 languages. A widely published and quoted
ceived the 2017 Thinkers50 Radar Award. Forbes called Amy “one of the five women
thought leader, Amy regularly appears in a wide range of publications and broadcasts.
changing the world,” and she was honored as one of the BBC’s 100 Women of 2020.

SAM JORDAN Managing Director

Manager MELANIE SUBIN
Sam Jordan is a Manager at Future Today Institute. She leads our Advanced Comput- Creative Director
ing practice area, which includes technology, artificial intelligence, virtual realities, EMILY CAUFIELD
networking, telecommunications, and space. She is a distinguished practice area
lead, where she enables organizations to navigate through uncertainty with inno- Editor
vative strategies. With a proven track record across various sectors, Sam’s visionary ERICA PETERSON
leadership has driven growth and resilience for Future Today Institute’s global clients and partners.
Copy Editor
Before joining FTI, Sam was the CEO and co-founder of TrovBase, a secure data discovery and analysis-sharing plat- SARAH JOHNSON
form. Sam grew the company from idea to launch and executed the company’s transition from scientific replication to
its current focus. In parallel, Sam engaged with the open science community, advocating for better data management Director of Operations
practices to address challenges in scientific replication. Previously, she worked for IBM, where she helped large enter- CHERYL COONEY
prises in the retail and distribution sector modernize their IT stack. Her expertise centered around mainframes, assisting
with the integration of new software and modern methodologies to legacy systems.
Sam is a coach in the strategic foresight MBA course at the NYU Stern School of Business. She holds a BS in Economics
and Data Analysis from George Mason University and an MBA from New York University’s Stern School of Business.

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SOURCES

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WEB3
TECH WEB3
TABLE OF CONTENTS
167 Top Headlines 182 Superpowering Blockchain with 192 Scenario: What If We
168 State of Play AI and IoT Established Systemically
Important Technology
169 Key Events 183 Build through the Bear
Institutions (SITIs)?
170 Likely Near Term 184 Scenario: What If SEC lawsuits
193 Web2 & Web3 Integration
were successful?
Developments
194 Digital Content Provenance and
185 Web3 Infrastructure
171 Why Web3 Trends Matter Authentication
to Your Organization 186 Proof of Stake Proves Its Worth
194 NFTs: Beyond the JPEG
172 When Will Web3 186 Emerging Forms of Consensus
195 Self-Sovereign Identity
Trends Impact Your Protocols
Solutions
Organization? 186 Blockchain Modularity
195 Tokenization of TradFi, Digital
173 Opportunities and Threats Assets & Security Tokens
187 Zero-Knowledge Proofs
174 Investments and Actions 196 Credibility Scoring and
187 The Appchain Thesis on
To Consider Ethereum Anonymity
175 Central Themes 188 Data-as-a-Problem 196 On-Chain Gaming: Play, Own,
177 Ones To Watch Earn, & Enjoy
189 Decentralized Applications
178 Important Terms 197 Scenario: What If We Used
190 DeFi Protocols Network Effects AI To Monetize Privacy?
180 The Web3 Landscape
190 Guerilla Marketing: Crypto 198 Authors
181 The Rising Regulation of Web3 Airdrops
201 Selected Sources
182 Decentralizing Venture Funding 190 Hyperfinancialization
182 Security Risks Take Different 191 Personal “X-As-A-Service”
Shapes Earning Models

TECH WEB3
TOP HEADLINES 01 If You Build it They Will Come (Maybe)

Many of the technical restrictions that limited the blockchain functionality are being
solved; however, novel, adoption-driving applications have yet to be developed.
Web3 has had a
challenging year, but 02 Bad News Sells Better, but Innovation Survives
protocols in progress Major media crypto headlines remain overtly negative, matching the landscape
of economic uncertainty, but development, project launches, and TradFi interest
bode well for its future remain elevated.
on the other side. 03 Just Don’t Call Them NFTs

Consumer-facing companies increasingly use blockchain-based digital collectibles
to create and foster online communities for their fans and customers.
04 Web2.5 the New Web3?

Web3 promised to replace Web2 tech, but developments and integrations on both
sides of the web divide blend the tech, better meeting users where they are.
05 Splinter Regulation of a Global Network

Blockchain networks are inherently global, but their nodes and users are not;
fragmented regulations across geographies shift businesses and restrict users.

TECH WEB3
STATE The crypto market has had a rough 12-18 months. Challenging economic
conditions and high-profile meltdowns have pushed market volume, pric-
OF PLAY
es, and VC investment downward.
But bright spots exist beyond the headlines and price charts. Throughout
the bear market, developers have continued to ship code, releasing cut-
ting-edge projects and providing core scalability and reliability enhance-
ments to public networks like Ethereum and Solana. Aside from raw tech-
nology infrastructure advancements, there has never been an easier time
for new companies or traditional businesses to launch custom chains due
Blockchain has proven to the developing Rollup-as-a-Service business model and SDK from lead-
ing Ethereum Layer2 scaling solutions.
technological staying power, but
its product-market fit remains However, significant roadblocks in regulation, adoption, and security still
limit the industry’s growth past early adopters. Companies and projects
uncertain, and near-term events planning for future advancements will have a head start over competitors.
will significantly impact its Companies are building private blockchain networks to enhance their
business, giving them the core benefits of blockchain while reducing scal-
potential. ability and security concerns. Finally, there is a concerted effort on both
sides of the web divide to enhance the adoption of blockchain by integrat-
ing characteristics of Web2 and Web3 to provide users with a more effort-
less, more familiar experience and entry point into the industry.

TECH WEB3
KEY EVENTS
A P R I L 2 0, 2 0 2 3 JUNE 23, 2023 AUGUST 15, 2023
Markets in Crypto Assets (MiCA) BlackRock Bitcoin Spot ETF Zynga Announces “Sugartown”
MiCA regulation receives formal The investment company’s filing for The leading mobile game
EU adoption as the first regulatory a Bitcoin Spot ETF spurs a deluge of developer teases its first
crypto framework in the world. applications from other institutions. blockchain-integrated game.
JUNE 5 & 6, 2023 A U G U S T 9, 2 0 2 3
SEC Sues Binance and Coinbase Base Launch on OP Stack

The regulator targets top companies Base, a Layer 2 scaling solution
in the crypto exchange industry and for Ethereum developed by
classifies many coins as securities. Coinbase, launches its mainnet.

TECH WEB3

BRIDGING THE WEB DIVIDE Enshrined Account Abstraction Globally Successful Web3 Game Tokenized Asset Network Adoption
Many of the technological limitations Account abstraction is a proposed upgrade The video game industry is years into the Traditional global financial players are working
of blockchain have been resolved to Ethereum that, when implemented, will creation of top titles that have blockchain on private blockchains to facilitate the trans-
or reduced, but adoption is the next provide flexibility in account setup via smart built into the core of the gameplay. The fer of tokenized financial assets, which are
hurdle for blockchain technology and contracts. This will give users easier routes to similarities of these games to titles gamers quicker to transfer and settle, and which help
maintain self-custody of tokens, more akin to are familiar with, combined with new ways to companies avoid the regulatory and security
crypto markets. Many forces are driv- account management in Web2. play, should attract crypto natives and Web2 concerns of public networks.
ing and limiting adoption today, and gamers.
the speed of adoption will depend on
the intersection and final outcomes of Verifying AI Output US Regulators Forced to Decide Crypto Double Down in Africa
these forces. Even in the depth of the
AI models are sowing online discord. Deep- SEC investigation and regulation of crypto In sub-Saharan Africa, crypto is more than a
bear market, the industry is seeing fakes and misinformation are major issues assets is causing pressure to mount. Major “nice-to-have”; it’s a financial necessity. A mix
very promising signs of interest and for political elections and online interaction. decisions around the SEC’s regulatory scope, of financial instability and demographics in
adoption from traditional industry Zero-knowledge cryptography could enable classification of securities, and legality of de- this region have led to the quiet adoption of
verifiable online content and remove distrust centralized finance are coming to a head, which crypto payments, which will lead to a greater
players. However, major roadblocks—
behind content consumed online. could shift the entire crypto market. industry focus in the region.
like regulation—persist, and these
factors are largely out of the hands of
the crypto industry. 11 MACRO SOURCES OF DISRUPTION
Technology Media & Demographics Environment Government Public Health Education Geopolitics Infrastructure Economy Wealth
Telecom Distribution

TECH WEB3
WHY WEB3 TRENDS MATTER TO YOUR ORGANIZATION
New Business Model Shifting Consumer Strengthening Data Need for Technical Tracking New Sources Integrations and
Opportunities Expectations Management Sophistication of Competition Partnerships
The outside world widely Blockchain has created Storing data in Web3, like many DeFi solutions may As Web3 solutions
understands crypto as an the ability to own and cloud databases has technologies, has a not seem to threaten become more
instrument for currency transact online value. limitations and downfalls. rapid pace of innovation traditional finance, sophisticated, legacy
exchange. However, novel Web3 users have adopted Data can easily be that causes it to evolve but they shouldn’t be businesses will benefit
decentralized business this technology, shifting manipulated maliciously quickly and often. overlooked. Many projects from establishing early
models in lending/ their expectations of or accidentally, and Paired with regulatory and protocols exist at a partnerships to learn
borrowing, sequencing ownership rights of digital sharing data outside uncertainty, businesses scale that can compete for about and implement
transactions, float, and goods and services. As the the organization can be contemplating entering liquidity, loans, trading, the technology. There
others have developed. adoption of Web3 grows, slow and challenging. the space should focus and other services from are many opportunities
They are driving revenue it will shift consumer Blockchain’s immutable on the macro details, clients and users. As to build relations with
for projects and preferences, requiring ledger can be used in application opportunities, investors become more leading Web3 projects
stakeholders through businesses to enhance private networks to store and risks while comfortable with Web3, today that can provide
high levels of automation their digital operations. and share data, avoiding continuing to consistently these solutions will pose meaningful learnings
and low overhead. scalability and security track technical aspects real competition. for near-term strategic
concerns. and nuances. decision-making.

TECH WEB3
WHEN WILL WEB3 IMPACT YOUR ORGANIZATION?
Forecasted Time of Impact
Financial services Customer relations Health care Interplanetary economies
Video games Real estate
Social media Higher education & credentialing
Supply chain management IoT
Artificial intelligence
0-4 YEARS 5-9 YEARS 10-14 YEARS 15+ YEARS

TECH WEB3
The decentralized nature of blockchain can expose businesses to new forms Web3 enables tokenizing real-world assets that can be exchanged via
of cybersecurity risk, particularly for small and medium-size businesses that blockchain marketplaces. Businesses can transform how they exchange goods
lack the capacity or technical sophistication to audit their Web3 capabilities. or develop related services for asset valuation or exchange platforms.
Many jurisdictions are still developing regulations for blockchain technology Advancements in security and cryptography will unlock the development of
and cryptocurrencies, posing risks for businesses in terms of compliance, decentralized identity solutions that allow consumers to control their personal
legal challenges, and sudden changes in the regulatory landscape. information and share it or authenticate it without revealing PII.
As Web3 grows in popularity, issues like network congestion, high Web3 technologies like the InterPlanetary File System (IPFS) provide
transaction fees, and slow processing times may hinder the user experience opportunities for decentralized data storage that will enable businesses to
on Web3 services, impacting businesses that are early adopters. transform their data storage, management, and verification solutions.
The high volatility of the cryptocurrency market and immaturity of Web3 As more companies integrate blockchain into their operations, there will be
startups can pose risks to businesses that rely on cryptocurrency for a growing demand for advisory services that is domain-specific and helps
transactions, fundraising, or as part of their business model. companies ensure they are implementing the technology responsibly and
correctly.
The complexity of today’s Web3 applications compared to traditional
Web2 solutions could be a barrier to widespread adoption and will burden With the growth of virtual assets and worlds, companies can transform their
businesses implementing Web3 to ensure ease of use for consumers. Web2 properties into increasingly immersive and interactive Web3 properties,
for consumers to interact with in novel ways.

TECH WEB3
1 2 3 4 5 6
Partnerships have become Businesses should begin Companies—especially Businesses may seek to Educational initiatives and Internal technology teams
essential for two-way building or improving the large or public institu- improve their institutional training serve as a starting should revisit security
knowledge transfer and necessary structure for tions—should begin en- knowledge in Web3 by point for companies that protocols, encryption
exposure to Web3. Compa- Web3 applications. This gaging with regulators working to develop new may be affected by Web3. standards, and data
nies should seek partners may include setting up to stay up to date on the blockchain protocols, Companies should provide security approaches to
across the web divide with a more robust network, development of related exploring use cases for upskilling opportunities for take advantage of Web3
mutually beneficial goals building the foundation for regulations or to begin Web3 within their industry, employees to grow their capabilities such as
where technical com- user-friendly interfaces, shaping favorable regu- or experimenting with new knowledge of Web3 tech- zero-knowledge proofs.
ponents in Web3 benefit or developing middleware lations for their industry. forms of digital assets. This nologies from foundational This review will also help
traditional businesses, that facilitates the integra- Companies may also invest early experimentation can protocols to user-facing companies prepare for
and traditional business- tion of traditional systems in legal expertise to navi- help companies prioritize applications, and all of the new and increasingly
es can provide adoption, with blockchain-based gate Web3-specific regula- starting points for Web3 technologies in between. complex cyber risks that
exposure, or reputational systems. tory environments. engagement. will emerge from a more
benefits. interconnected economy.

TECH WEB3
CENTRAL THEMES
Web 2.5 as a Bridge to Web3 Positive Innovation Externalities Relentless Building
Web3 has long been touted as a replacement for Web2 Blockchain technology is extremely versatile, with Crypto prices are way off all-time highs, media cover-
technology, but many barriers limit the technology’s applications well beyond finance and the ability to age is overtly negative, transaction volume is down,
widespread adoption by businesses and users. Com- integrate with other rising technologies like artificial and the fallout from FTX’s collapse still hangs over
panies and projects on both sides of the web divide are intelligence and Internet of Things to solve business the industry. And yet, late 2022 and 2023 have been
acutely aware of these issues, and strides are being problems. The rise in crypto market valuations and arguably the most productive period in Web3’s his-
made to overcome the barriers. Many of these innova- popularity has also increased investment in adjacent tory. Major networks have had multiple significant
tions and developments are leading to an intermediate technologies that work within the ecosystem and will upgrades, the ecosystem of Layer 2 chain on Ethereum
Web2.5: a technology that gives users the convenience, play an important role in solving issues we face dai- has blossomed, and blockchain-based games continue
familiarity, or safety of Web2 as well as the ownership ly online. However, overly restrictive regulations that to launch and improve. That said, there are blemishes
and decentralized aspects of Web3. Web2.5 may just be do not account for the novel nuances of the technol- in crypto’s rebound: The NFT market has lost signifi-
the training wheels the world needs to drive adoption, ogy and assets built on top of it threaten to subdue cant value, and security and scams remain a key issue
or it could be a lasting infrastructure that lets users or eliminate the positive innovation occurring in the though they haven’t scared off the developers. This fo-
operate across the spectrum of the web. While Web3 space. Regulators need to work with industry experts cus on building has even spread to traditional compa-
infrastructure continues to make progress with its to develop new regulations that hold innovation and nies as major financial institutions, retailers, and video
potential to support the entirety of the web, regulation, investor protection in the highest regard to limit ne- game companies have used this market to focus on
consumer preferences, and business practices will farious activity without eliminating the technology’s experimentation with Web3 aspects that can enhance
likely be limiting factors in the time to come. positive externalities for economies and society. their businesses. Companies that continue to overlook
Web3 because of headlines or comfort with previous
technologies may fall behind competitors that have
worked countercyclically to the hype cycle.

TECH WEB3
CENTRAL THEMES
Blockchains as Infrastructure Hiring Robotic Staff The Intelligent Manufacturing Evolution
Today, the terms “Web3,” “internet,” and “metaverse” Each year, cobots become smarter, more autonomous, Manufacturing continues to transform from a tradi-
are often (incorrectly) used interchangeably. This re- and more prolific, and this year is no exception. In fact, tional labor-intensive practice to a more sophisticated
flects a broader trend in technology use: Most users en- the first humanoid robot factory is set to open and and interconnected system. Recent advances intend
gage with technology on a functional level, rather than produce 10,000 robots a year. These robots that work to create higher levels of productivity and efficiency,
with an understanding of its intricate mechanics. This alongside human workers are being trained on more but they’re also addressing sustainability require-
is particularly true, and important, for blockchain tech- data that allows them to adapt and work around their ments and enabling product personalization. The new
nology. Business leaders should focus more on iden- human counterparts. Developers have focused on tools and technology can spot flaws in products before
tifying the real business impact of blockchain, which improving cobot safety measures, so a cobot knows they leave the floor, greatly increasing consistency for
will be realized through the applications built on it. As what to do if it bumps into an unexpected obstacle or goods. Along with quality control, sensors and digital
the technology rapidly evolves, it has the potential to person. These cobots mitigate potentially harmful work twins are getting companies to focus on predictive
support full-scale, innovative applications. A key indi- for humans by either augmenting the human body or maintenance by reducing downtime during large runs
cator of blockchain’s success will be when its complex replicating repetitive tasks that could cause future in- or times of high demand. Additive manufacturing also
infrastructure becomes an unnoticed foundation, en- juries. Some of the augmented wearables can also offer allows for the integration of new materials that are
abling powerful and successful applications to take the predictive pathways through the warehouse to ensure themselves smarter and more connected. And it helps
forefront. This transition marks a significant milestone worker safety. As autonomy continues to grow in robots reduce the number of parts needed for production of
in technology integration and user experience, high- and transportation, this trend will create newfound a good, which can streamline production and reduce
lighting the value of functionality over technical details efficiencies and productivity, particularly during peak waste as only the parts needed are produced.
in driving business innovation and user adoption. demand seasons.

TECH WEB3
ONES TO WATCH
Hayden Adams, CEO of Uniswap Labs and Dr. Gavin Wood, co-founder of Ethereum and Yoseph Ayele, founder of Borderless Africa Daniel Alegre, Activision Blizzard and Google
developer of the Uniswap decentralized ex- creator of Polkadot and Kusama, for his devel- and community builder, for his dedication to veteran, now CEO of Yuga Labs, for his lead-
change protocol, for his thought leadership opment of leading blockchain technology and solving Africa’s economic insecurities with ership of one of the most innovative Web3
in Web3 and DeFi protocol development. vision for Web3. Web3 technologies, education, and access. brands combining NFTs, gaming, and culture.
Vitalik Buterin, co-founder of Ethereum and Brian Armstrong, founder and CEO of Coin- Neel Somani, founder of Eclipse Labora- Avery Ching, co-founder and CTO of Aptos,
other open-source projects, for his steward- base, for his unwavering commitment to the tories, for pushing the limitations of the for his experience working with traditional
ship of Ethereum, blockchain thought leader- US crypto market and thought leadership on modular blockchain thesis and encourage- tech companies and leadership of a promis-
ship, and vision for the technology’s future. application-specific use cases of blockchain. ment for the unification of blockchains and ing Layer 1 blockchain.
communities.
Evin Cheikosman, director at Blockchain Changpeng Zhao, co-founder and CEO of Rune Christensen, co-founder and CEO of
Law for Social Good Center and former leader Binance, for his leadership of the world’s larg- Mustafa Al-Bassam, a hacktivist turned se- MakerDAO, for his contribution to DeFi and
of the World Economic Forum’s Crypto Sus- est cryptocurrency exchange amid increased rial entrepreneur, now co-founder and CEO of decentralized stablecoins and his vision for
tainability Coalition, for her thought leader- regulatory scrutiny across the globe. Celestia Labs, for his contributions to block- the integration of TradFi and DeFi.
ship on blockchain’s benefits. chain modularity and Celestia mainnet.
Joseph Lubin, co-founder of Ethereum and Larry Fink, chairman and CEO of BlackRock,
Anatoly Yakovenko, co-founder of Solana founder and CEO of ConsenSys, for leadership Fumio Kishida, prime minister of Japan, for for his support of a tokenized future for Trad-
and CEO of Solana Labs, for his ongoing lead- and foundational innovations like MetaMask his support of Web3 initiatives and his work Fi and his leadership of a company paving
ership in the Solana ecosystem and advocacy and Linea zkRollup. to make Japan a more open environment for the way for crypto asset ETFs proliferation.
for the unification of blockchain technologies. Web3 businesses.
Prithvi Subburaj, a 15-year veteran of Google Jose Fernandez da Ponte, general manager
Sergey Nazarov, co-founder of Chainlink, for and now COO of OP Labs, for his background ZachXBT, a pseudonymous X (Twitter) of blockchain, crypto, and digital currencies
his ongoing contributions to Chainlink’s ora- and opportunity to lead the expansion of the influencer and on-chain detective, for his at PayPal, for his leadership in driving the
cle network and to interoperability protocols Optimism Network. commitment to uncovering bad actors in the adoption of implementing blockchain tech-
driving DeFi and TradFi integration. crypto ecosystem tied to scams and crimes. nology and compatibility in TradFi.
Steven Goldfeder, co-founder and CEO of Off-
Dr. Balaji Srinivasan, former CTO of Coin- chain Labs (developer of Arbitrum) and author Yat Siu, co-founder of Animoca Brands and Daniel Shorr, co-founder and CEO of Modu-
base, general partner at Andreessen Horow- of “Bitcoin and Cryptocurrency Technologies,” investor, for leading a major blockchain gam- lus Labs, for his rapid and transparent exper-
itz, and author of “The Network State,” for his for his vision for Etherum’s future. ing company and pursuit of a decentralized iments and implementations of AI models
thought leadership on Web3 for businesses metaverse with secure digital property rights. deployed on public blockchains.
and governments.

TECH WEB3
IMPORTANT TERMS
Airdrop Blockchain trilemma Decentralized Exchange (DEX) Layer 2 blockchain
A marketing strategy where a project team distrib- An optimization challenge faced by monolithic Aa peer-to-peer marketplace for users to trade A broad term that describes blockchains that
utes tokens to users for free in exchange for using blockchains, requiring trade-offs between decen- crypto assets. delegate core infrastructure to another blockchain.
the protocol or other requirements. Airdrops are tralization, scalability, and security; only two can Examples include Ethereum’s Rollups and Bitcoin’s
often used as a guerrilla marketing technique to be maximized. Solana, known for high transactions Decentralized finance (DeFi) Lightning Network, which aim to enhance scalability.
stimulate interest and adoption. per second (TPS), prioritizes scalability and security Financial services including banks, asset man-
over decentralization. agers, insurance companies, and other financial Modular vs. monolithic
AppChains (application specific chains) services that leverage blockchain and smart Blockchains can be modular, breaking core com-
Special-purpose blockchains serving a single Bridge contracts for transactions, data sharing, and other ponents (execution, settlement, data availability,
application. This gives developers total control of A tool to facilitate the transmission of information operations. consensus) into separate specialized networks
software upgrades and gives users less competi- and assets between distinct blockchains regard- to address the blockchain trilemma. Monolithic
tive block space of general-purpose blockchains. less of the interoperability of the networks. Exit scams (“rug pulls”) chains like Ethereum provide all core modules
A common type of fraud where a project team within their infrastructure.
Block space Decentralization deceives investors to garner their investments and
The storage area on a blockchain for transaction The process of constructing architectural infra- uses a purpose-built vulnerability to drain all funds NFT (non-fungible token)
and data storage, including smart contracts. Block structure, system logic, and social systems without and abandon the project. A digital token on a blockchain that contains
space significantly impacts blockchain scalability the presence of a centralized authority that holds unique and indivisible data. It is frequently used in
and decentralization, and therefore gas fees for decision-making power or exerts disproportionate Fork digital art or when tokenizing real-world assets.
data inclusion. influence. Instead, control is distributed among the A term commonly used to describe the act of copy-
stakeholders of the network. ing and/or modifying existing code to either up- Nodes
Blockchain grade an existing system or launch a new product. Individual devices within a connected network of
A distributed ledger technology typically employed Decentralized autonomous organization (DAO) Forks are frequently necessary for blockchain-wide computers that serve various functions such as
for the transaction and storage of data. It utilizes An internet-native organization formed by individ- software updates and are commonly observed in communication, transaction validation, and histor-
cryptography to provide an immutable and verifi- uals who agree to adhere to a specific set of rules the decentralized finance (DeFi) sector, where one ical data storage within a blockchain network. Dif-
able data source for participants in a network. and goals without a central authority. DAOs employ project replicates the code of another. ferent nodes exist, each with functionality specific
tokenized ownership and smart contracts to imple- to the network they support. Examples include full,
ment decisions. light, super, and archive nodes.

TECH WEB3
IMPORTANT TERMS
Oracle see their collateral value slashed, while benevolent Sharding Tokenomics
A capability or service that gathers, collects, and validators earn yields or other benefits for their A database partitioning technique that divides an The economic framework of tokens, encompassing
transmits data on- and off-chain to facilitate work. Ethereum successfully transitioned from extensive database into more manageable parts elements such as consensus mechanisms, yields,
real-time transactions and information transmis- proof of work to PoS, resulting in a 99% reduction in called shards. Ethereum’s roadmap plans to use supply limits, and other monetary policies.
sions. Oracles are bridges between blockchains the blockchain’s energy consumption. an adapted sharding methodology to improve the
and external off-chain information sources on the scalability of the blockchain by partitioning the Traditional finance (TradFi)
internet. Rollups chain and its validators into distinct but intercon- Conventional means of money or asset manage-
A subcategory of Layer 2 blockchains with a nected shards, allowing for parallelized transaction ment where services are provided by traditional
Phygitals scalability focus that process and bundle transac- processing. banks, asset managers, insurance companies, etc.
This refers to the blending of physical and digital tions to be submitted to Ethereum for settlement
assets into an NFT. Phygitals are commonly used and consensus. The most popular types include Smart contracts Zero-knowledge proofs (ZKPs)
for tokenizing physical collectibles and art pieces; optimistic rollups like Arbitrum and Optimism and A blockchain-based computer program that exe- Mathematical techniques that allow users to prove
they frequently include a burn and redeem func- zkRollups like zkSync. cutes autonomously when predetermined criteria knowledge (the prover) of something without di-
tionality where the NFT is destroyed for the owner to are met. vulging the private knowledge associated with it to
receive the physical item. Scalability another user (the verifier). Zero-knowledge proofs
A blockchain’s capacity to process and store data as Stablecoin encompass two core principles important to block-
Proof of stake (PoS) network demand grows, typically measured in TPS. Cryptocurrency assets whose value is referenced chain technology: succinctness, which means that
A blockchain consensus mechanism that uses (or pegged) to another financial instrument, often verifying the proof is significantly easier than pro-
stake tokens to secure the network. Validators Security tokens (ST) a fiat currency. These assets are typically collateral- ducing the computation itself, and privacy-preserv-
(nodes responsible for verifying blocks of transac- Digital assets representing ownership of off-chain ized by fiat currencies, cryptocurrencies, and liquid ing, which involves hiding portions of computation
tions) must stake their tokens (use them as collat- assets such as bonds, commodities, or real estate. assets. while maintaining correctness during verification.
eral) to participate in the block verification selec- Off-chain assets are tokenized into STs to enable
tion process. Malicious validators—those that fail trading on blockchain networks.
to validate or attempt to mislead the network—will

TECH WEB3
THE WEB3
LANDSCAPE

TECH WEB3
THE WEB3 LANDSCAPE
The Rising Regulation of Web3 The European Union, in contrast, has po- each with drastically different stances on the
sitioned itself as a “fast follower” in the future of crypto in the US. The Securities and
realm of crypto regulation. In 2023, the EU Exchange Commission has resorted to regu-
The world of cryptocurrency and Web3 tech- Japan was an early adopter of cryptocurren- ratified the Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) lation by enforcement, adding to the overall
nologies has witnessed exponential growth cy technology, with the country serving as framework, which is set to take effect in uncertainty.
in recent years, with North America, Europe, the epicenter of crypto activity in the early 2024. MiCA aims to strike a balance by
Despite this regulatory uncertainty, busi-
and East Asia emerging as the three largest 2010s. However, the infamous Mt. Gox ex- creating a regulatory framework that builds
nesses in the TradFi and blockchain sectors
markets in terms of cryptocurrency volume. change debacle and other issues prompted on successful regulations in countries like
continue to launch crypto-focused products.
However, within these regions, three major the Japanese government to introduce strin- France. The objective is to foster a workable
However, the lack of clarity has somewhat
players—Japan, the European Union, and the gent regulations and tax regimes to protect environment that encourages innovation
tempered the full potential of these innova-
United States—are taking distinctly differ- investors. These measures, while well-inten- without stifling it, all while ensuring the
tions. It’s important to note that investors,
ent approaches to regulating this dynamic tioned, had the unintended consequence of protection of investors. This approach has
both current and prospective, seek regulatory
industry. These regulatory decisions have restricting the viability of Web3 businesses been warmly received by the crypto industry,
clarity. As crypto has become an ingrained
far-reaching impacts, influencing innovation, in the country. Businesses, however, recog- with positive public relations and marketing
investment category in the US, its regulation
business creation, and even the global power nized the potential of blockchain technology efforts successfully attracting business-
is crucial for attracting and retaining capital.
dynamics within the crypto industry. Regula- and cryptocurrencies and took the initiative es, such as Coinbase and Nexo, to relocate
tion is a double-edged sword. On one hand, it to create self-regulating organizations to to stable regulatory regions within the EU. Regulation and innovation must be balanced
can provide stability and investor protection, promote adoption, particularly in areas such Notably, Nexo, a US-based business, moved effectively in order for Web3 to succeed. These
fostering trust in the market. On the other as the Security Token Market. Today, Japan to Europe due to regulatory inaction in its countries must work closely with the crypto
hand, it has the potential to stifle innova- is gradually rolling back these strict regula- home country. industry to protect investors while fostering
tion and disrupt the balance of power in the tions, signaling a desire to encourage Web3 the incredible potential blockchain technol-
The United States presents a more chaotic
crypto industry. However, businesses in this businesses to bring their innovation and ogy and Web3 innovations can bring to their
regulatory landscape for the crypto indus-
space are resilient, and innovations tend to investment back to the country. respective economies. The evolving landscape
try. The lack of a clear partisan line for or
be “sticky,” often finding ways to thrive even of crypto regulation will continue to shape the
against crypto has resulted in many bills
under regulatory constraints. industry’s future on a global scale.
floating around the House and Senate,

TECH WEB3
THE WEB3 LANDSCAPE

Decentralizing Venture Funding expansion of their investable capital (the top AI for auditing, verification, and proactive While these technologies have their strengths,
Web3 VC funding has reached a three-year 10 DAOs, excluding foundations, collectively threat detection. they also have known weaknesses. IoT gathers
low, driven by regulatory uncertainty and the hold nearly $16 billion) can furnish addition- data but is insecure, and AI is great for ana-
al liquidity during market downturns and Social engineering exploits, on the oth- lyzing data but needs clean data to learn. But
specter of major company collapses. Despite
expansions. This dynamic may engender er hand, rely on human error and include when they’re paired with blockchain, the tech-
this drought, developer activity (SDK down-
heightened competition for VC investors. phishing attacks and exit scams (commonly nologies become even more powerful. Light-
loads, smart contract deployments, test net
known as “rug pulls”). Rug pulls are popu- ning Labs’ Bitcoin tool kit mixes blockchain
activity) is surging across various blockchain
Security Risks Take Different Shapes lar due to their ease of execution and were with AI, enabling AI agent-to-agent payment
ecosystems. In this bearish market, DAOs and
responsible for $100 million in scams in the and AI access to paywalled APIs autonomous-
foundations are pivotal, enabling builders Web3 security concerns are on the rise, with
first half of 2023 and just over $200 mil- ly. When blockchain is combined with IoT,
to persevere. The Ethereum Foundation, with a growing focus on hacks and on-chain
lion in 2022. Failure to safeguard investors it secures IoT data generation and IoT-to-IoT
assets nearing $2 billion, is a prime example scams that result in the loss of millions of
through education and industry efforts may communications. And when all three technolo-
of decentralized funding supplanting ear- dollars. These illegal activities fall into two
prompt regulators to intensify scrutiny and gies combine, the benefits feed off each other.
ly-stage investment traditionally targeted by broad categories—code vulnerabilities and
impose tighter controls on existing plat- State Farm has filed a recent patent to use
seed-stage investors. The Foundation’s suc- social engineering exploits.
forms. blockchain, AI, and IoT to track autonomous
cess has birthed DAOs and foundation funds
Critical targets for code vulnerabilities vehicles on the chain to provide immutable
for alternative Layer 1 blockchains, allowing These looming threats underscore the urgent
include bridges, liquidity pools, and wallets records of incidents, assign liability, and pro-
them to invest in their own growth flywheels. need for enhanced security measures and
due to their concentration of value. Despite cess claims.
Uniswap, a prominent DEX, has grown to the regulatory oversight to protect participants
protocols’ investment in secure smart con-
extent that it now operates its own grant and promote trust within the ecosystem.
tracts, code audits, and bug bounty pro- These kinds of integrations will become in-
program to fund DeFi protocol development.
grams, the crypto space exceeded $1.5 billion creasingly common as many more companies
Grants, often structured more favorably than Superpowering Blockchain with AI and IoT
in losses in 2023. On-chain cybersecurity is file patent applications involving all three
VC investments, offer a straightforward appli- Blockchain is becoming even more powerful
still in its nascency due to the incompatibil- technologies. Those include a wide array of in-
cation process and are typically non-dilutive. by integrating with IoT and AI for specialized
ity of Web2 security measures with open- dustries, from financial services (Mastercard)
While VC funds have played an indispens- applications.
source networks, driving on-chain security to information technology (IBM) and food
able role thus far and are expected to persist
solutions companies to explore the use of intelligence platforms (Innit). As AI and IoT
in Web3, the proliferation of DAOs and the

TECH WEB3
THE WEB3 LANDSCAPE
become more ubiquitous, we can expect new cost reduction strategies in Web3, the tech-
blockchain applications due to the synergis- nology is poised to have an impact as signif-
tic relationships with these technologies. icant as cloud infrastructure in the 2010s.
Build through the Bear This is the beginning of Web3’s era of in-
stitutional adoption, as major criticisms
Building through the bear market is a recur-
of public blockchain technology around
ring theme in the crypto space: Even when
energy utilization and scalability continue
markets cool and attention shifts away from
to weaken. Expect to see continued devel-
the technology, protocol developers and
opment and deployment of Web3 initiatives
companies keep innovating. This trend has
from companies across every industry; the
persisted in the crypto world and is becom-
companies experimenting with the technol-
ing more common at traditional companies
ogy now will have a leg up on competition in
building new crypto solutions for the next
the future.
economic upturn.
Despite the recent downturn and crypto’s

uncertain regulatory landscape, new compa-
nies continue to launch, operate, and devel-
op Web3 initiatives. Those include payment
companies like Visa and PayPal; investment
applications like Spot Bitcoin ETH Futures,
and ARK Invest; brokerage firms like Coin-
base’s L2 network; NFT loyalty programs like
that offered by Adidas ALTS; and games like
Zynga’s “Sugartown.” As traditional compa-
Adidas ALTS are NFTs that provide early access to virtual and physical products.
nies implement new business models and
Image credit: Adidas

TECH WEB3
SCENARIOS
SCENARIO YEAR 2027
What If SEC lawsuits were successful?

“US Falls Behind in Fintech as SEC Wins Major Crypto Lawsuits”
In a landmark development, the US Securities and Exchange Commission has successfully sued major crypto entities including Bi-
nance, Coinbase, DAOs, stablecoins, and NFT projects. This crackdown has driven crypto projects out of the US, severely limiting Amer-
ican access to the crypto markets and crippling related businesses. The SEC’s aggressive stance has effectively severed the on-ramps
for US citizens to crypto markets and reversed the country’s fortune in the crypto industry, once boosted by China’s crypto ban.
This shift has left the US lagging in fintech innovation. Now, regions like Japan, the EU, and Africa are emerging as new fintech lead-
ers, capitalizing on the exodus of blockchain expertise from the US. The departure of blockchain projects has led to a dearth of skilled
professionals in the field. US investors face minimal protection, as they can still access offshore protocols without oversight, echoing
the FTX collapse in the Bahamas. Japan, in particular, is rising as an economic powerhouse due to its alignment with the Web3 indus-
try and supportive regulatory environment. Meanwhile, the growth of DeFi and other blockchain projects is expected to slow, especially
with US users facing access barriers.
The upcoming Supreme Court decision on defining investment contracts could further shape the SEC’s reach over stablecoins and
DeFi. As the global blockchain business adapts, the US’ once-dominant position in fintech innovation is now challenged, marking a
significant shift in the landscape of financial technology.

TECH WEB3
WEB3
INFRASTRUCTURE

TECH WEB3
WEB3 INFRASTRUCTURE
Proof of Stake Proves Its Worth technical capability or fear usability issues creasingly important for specialized chains, Blockchain Modularity
Ethereum’s 2022 transition from electric- should observe these behind-the-scenes which may need to change underlying in- The “blockchain trilemma” highlights a key
ity-guzzling proof of work (PoW) to a more moves; these new developments will contin- frastructure to bring new capabilities to the challenge in Layer 1 blockchains: Optimizing
energy-efficient and decentralized network ue to improve the capabilities of the plat- blockchain ecosystem. for scalability, decentralization, and security
secured by proof of stake was an incredible form for all types of applications. simultaneously is difficult. Ethereum excels
Another recurring theme is new alternative
feat. But it’s only a stepping stone in the in decentralization and security but lags in
Emerging Forms of Consensus Protocols Layer 1 blockchains. Most recently Aptos and
progression toward a hyper-scalable, fully de- scalability, while Solana offers scalability and
Sui, two heavily venture-backed L1s, deployed
centralized, highly secure, and easily usable By many measures, Ethereum’s merge to security but compromises on decentraliza-
their mainnets and are attempting to wres-
platform for the internet. proof of stake (PoS) was a great success: tion. To address this, the blockchain sector
tle network usage away from incumbents
The transition went smoothly, energy con- is turning to modularity, separating Layer 1
Now, the Ethereum community has a list like Ethereum and Solana with tech stack
sumption dropped by 99%, staked ETH that blockchain functions—execution, settlement,
of improvement proposals, and research is upgrades. They both use PoS but have very
secures the network has increased every consensus, and data availability—into dis-
ongoing to improve each area. They include different algorithms under the hood: They’re
month since the merge, and many more tinct, specialized chains.
adding temporary data storage to enhance now using a two-pronged approach to trans-
Ethereum users can participate in securing
the scalability of Layer 2 chains, increasing action consensus that allows for high scal- This approach is evident in Ethereum’s Layer 2
the network. But while PoS is a mainstay con-
decentralization by separating block propos- ability through parallelizing transactions. solutions like Optimistic and Zero Knowledge
sensus mechanism in Web3, Ethereum’s PoS
er and block builder capabilities to strip out is not a one-size-fits-all approach and still Rollups, which enhance transaction speed
These protocols weren’t possible in Ethere-
MEV bots’ capabilities to censor transactions, has downsides, such as limited scalability. and cost-efficiency. More broadly, various
um’s PoS based on how the blocks are struc-
and improving account abstraction. Layer 2s and blockchains are experimenting
tured and could present a red flag for the
Other networks have chosen different forms with different module combinations, aim-
While none of the proposals or areas of re- company. Ethereum’s technology has lagged
of consensus protocols. Filecoin, a decentral- ing to improve blockchain performance and
search have hard implementation timelines, behind the industry for many years, but its
ized storage blockchain network, uses two interconnect ecosystems. A notable example
the Ethereum community has a proven track massive network effects keep it relevant.
different types of consensus mechanisms is Eclipse, a new Layer 2 architecture that in-
record of delivering high-quality and thor- Time will tell if a younger blockchain with
that allow the nodes in the network to verify tegrates Ethereum, Celestia, Solana, and RISC
oughly tested protocol updates. Companies more innovative consensus mechanisms
data has been stored and continues to be Zero for different functionalities, showcasing
still on the Web3 sidelines because they lack and infrastructure designs can outcompete
stored in the network. This may become in- advanced modularity.
the current platform of choice.

TECH WEB3
WEB3 INFRASTRUCTURE
Although still in its early stages, the modular the proofs to Layer 1 for verification. This Ethereum’s L2 chains like Arbitrum, Opti-
blockchain concept is gaining traction. The shifts the heavy computation off-chain while mism, and zkSync are embracing this ap-
uptake of existing Layer 2 solutions and on- still verifying the validity of every transaction. proach, allowing easier creation of L2 and L3
going experiments in specialized chains sug- chains. These solutions enhance deployment
However, ZKP characteristics allow them to
gest a future where modular strategies could ease, and upgrade flexibility, interoperabil-
be applied far beyond blockchain scalabil-
be vital in solving the blockchain trilemma ity, and scalability, although Cosmos was
ity solutions: Researchers are studying the
for diverse applications and business needs. the first to introduce this model. Coinbase’s
application of ZKPs to AI training, interaction,
Base is another example of this trend, built
Zero-Knowledge Proofs and verification of model outputs. As com-
on the Optimism OP Stack. Its success may
putation capacity continues to increase and
Zero-knowledge proofs (ZKPs) aren’t new: prompt other companies to explore similar
ZKP technology improves, expect to see it
They were theorized back in the 1980s by solutions.
used throughout digital interactions to pro-
researchers at New York University and were
vide great control over private data and de- This shift is crucial as it enhances scalabil-
first deployed at scale with the 2016 launch
crease unverified or fraudulent information. ity and reduces costs, making blockchain
of ZCash, a privacy-focused cryptocurrency
more user-friendly, especially for high-trans-
based on bitcoin’s codebase. More recently,
The Appchain Thesis on Ethereum action applications. Application-specific
improvements to computational capabilities
The Appchain concept, originated by Cos- chains offer more specialization and the
and the cryptography itself have allowed for
mos, has been adopted in Ethereum’s Layer possibility of private chains within a decen-
wider-scale deployment of ZKPs in the crypto
2 (L2) ecosystem. This idea advocates for tralized network, believed to be key for future
space, most notably with ZK-Rollups.
protocols to create their own independent interoperability and simplified user experi-
ZKPs have gained significant adoption due to chains when they grow significantly, en- ence. However, not all in the crypto commu-
their two core characteristics: succinctness suring full control and reducing reliance on nity agree with the multichain approach of
and privacy. The succinctness characteristic their original blockchain. RollApps, a key L2 Appchain. Some, like Solana, focus on a sin-
is the basis for the scalability enhancements provider, facilitates this by offering tools for gle chain for all applications. The effective-
of ZK-Rollups, because nodes can compute easy deployment of new chains. ness of these diverse strategies will become
proofs of transactions off-chain and submit clearer over time.

TECH WEB3
WEB3 INFRASTRUCTURE
Data-as-a-Problem storage provider. Ethereum is set to intro-
Data storage, now cheaper and faster in the duce EIP-4844 (proto-danksharding), adding
traditional economy, is a problem for block- a new, less resource-intensive data section
chains. Their unique design, which limits how to blocks, called “blobs,” to ease the compu-
much data can be stored in blocks, makes tational load on nodes and improve scalabil-
data storage costly and challenging to opti- ity. Other projects are exploring approaches
mize. like data hosting consortiums and modular
blockchain designs. Further progress from
A key issue for blockchain scalability is various crypto market segments should
the block size and the hardware needed to enhance scalability without compromising
process and validate data. Bigger blocks decentralization or security.
are more scalable but require more compu-
tational power, making them expensive for
validators and potentially reducing decentral-
ization. Solutions like sharding or modularity
can help blockchains circumvent these hard-
ware demands, but they face the data avail-
ability problem, where malicious nodes could
hide crucial transaction data. So, light nodes
need methods to verify data availability with-
out downloading everything, maintaining the
efficiency of sharding.
Developers are seeking solutions to these

challenges. PayPal sought a patent to prune
blockchain blocks and store them with a data

TECH WEB3
DECENTRALIZED
APPLICATIONS

TECH WEB3
DECENTRALIZED APPLICATIONS
DeFi Protocols Network Effects as a stablecoin provider but expanding into they can miss the mark of getting real user Hyperfinancialization
DeFi protocol business models are traditional: lending as Spark Protocol) and horizontally adoption. Users have learned to game air- Financialization has been a hot-button topic
Protocols provide products and services and to provide the same services across multi- drop programs, known as “airdrop farming,” in the crypto market as goods typically not
generate fees distributed to stakeholders. But ple chains (such as Aave’s lending product where users set up dozens of automated considered financial assets—such as art,
these protocols operate in a unique environ- being available across nine different block- wallets programmed to maximize their video games, and social media—are commod-
ment: The business’s “secret sauce” is public chains). chances and total rewards from an airdrop. itized, recasting their value from enjoyment to
knowledge because nearly all DeFi protocols Incentive structure and qualifications for investment returns.
The average user can’t verify code and will
are open source. airdrops can limit this behavior, but many
likely gravitate toward protocols with the In art, advanced trading techniques like mass
platforms have struggled. Arbitrum, a lead-
Open-source protocols can generate compe- best reputations. At the same time, busi- NFT buys and sells commoditized art and
ing Ethereum L2, had a significant issue
tition—Uniswap has forked nearly 500 times, nesses will have robust and tested code- shifts the focus away from culture and com-
with airdrop farming that left many retail
spurring continuous innovation—but they can bases to use and adapt to their own chain munity. At the same time, token incentives
users dissatisfied, and to this day, 72 million
also splinter the market and provide an open- services. spurred the gamification of NFT trades and
ARB tokens are unclaimed.
ing for fraudulent activity. This was the case manipulated volumes. The financialization
Guerilla Marketing: Crypto Airdrops While Arbitrum has become extremely suc-
with Compounder Finance, a fork of Yearn of video games, GameFi (the combination of
Finance that scammed investors out of more Airdrops raise awareness, drive user adop- cessful anyway, the viability of these pro- decentralized finance and video games) is
than $10 million with minimal development tion, stress test platforms, and reward active grams is murky. Most, if not all, tokens with often criticized for its lack of engaging game-
effort. or long-time users. They can be extremely lu- significant airdrops see massive sell-offs play and a hyper-focus on financialization. The
crative: NFT platform Blur distributed tokens at token distribution, as many users dump latest development in social media financial-
Fraudulent projects are still a concern, but as part of its multiseason airdrop program, tokens to lock in value. It’s difficult to tell if ization—Friend.tech—is also controversial. It
the bear market has washed out smaller and in the first season, 23 users earned these users eventually return to the plat- allows users to tokenize social connections
competitors as investors leave the market or more than $1 million in tokens. form. But even if the outcomes are unclear, on X by buying and selling a sort of “key” in
flee to more reputable service providers. As airdrops have become a mainstay in the public profiles that gives access to private
a result, large DeFi protocols continue to ex- Still, platforms should weigh benefits ecosystem as a significant hype generator. chat rooms and is criticized for commodifying
pand their influence, both vertically to provide against long-term goals. If airdrops are too
people through their social media accounts.
more DeFi services (such as Maker starting short term or have misaligned incentives,

TECH WEB3
DECENTRALIZED APPLICATIONS
In each case, the implementation and degree a new blockchain primitive where staked
of financialization seems to be extremely token balances on Ethereum can be used to
important in the outcomes of the applica- validate Ethereum and other chains simulta-
tion. Despite the criticisms, financialization neously for juicier yields. In NFT gaming proj-
remains a core tenet of the crypto ecosystem. ects, users can provide utility-as-a-service
Expect to see new applications of financial- by providing digital services to player bases
ization continue to be developed with ensuing and earning portions of the transactions on
volatility and uncertainty. their digital properties.
Personal “X-As-A-Service” Earning Models There are many more as-a-service earning
opportunities for crypto adopters, such
Web3 has opened the door for consumers to
as providing liquidity as a service on DeFi
earn through “X-as-a-service” models that al-
platforms or providing cloud storage on Fi-
low for the automation of personal hardware
lecoin’s IPFS network. Many of these oppor-
and digital assets to generate returns—partic-
tunities are limited to those with the knowl-
ularly in computation, security, and utility.
edge and technical abilities to navigate the
As mining is now monopolized by profession- crypto ecosystem. Still, as barriers to adop-
al outfits, users seeking to provide compu- tion come down, these earning models will
tation-as-a-service are pivoting to running be available to anyone with internet access.
millions of iterations of training data for AI
models—and getting paid handsomely for it.
In Security-as-a-Service, blockchain users
can stake their tokens to participate in trans-
action and block validation, helping secure Crypto miner Hut 8 invested in five data centers which can now be used for other purposes, including
the network. In the same area, restaking is training AI.
Image credit: Coindesk

TECH WEB3
SCENARIOS
SCENARIO YEAR 2038
What If We Established Systemically Important Technology Institutions (SITIs)?

The global financial system has undergone a transformation, with technology companies at its core. Over the past two decades, as digital assets
have taken over, technology companies have invested heavily, by developing digital wallets, cryptocurrency exchanges, and NFT marketplaces,
making these services integral to their digital ecosystems.
As a result, following a recent meeting, the US Financial Stability Oversight Council (FSOC) has announced plans to designate certain technology
companies as being systematically important: a significant departure from the definition of “systemically important institutions” portrayed in
the 2010 Dodd-Frank Act.
This oversight regulates technology organizations that now steward most of the country’s digital assets, which have become the underpinning
of economic value. Digital assets have ballooned in value due to the financialization and monetization of people’s digital identities, capabili-
ties, and online followings, as well as the tokenization of physical assets such as homes and vehicles. While blockchain technology spurred the
creation of digital assets and ease of transacting online, adoption hurdled around technical requirements, leaving oversight, self-custody, and
security concerns to be solved.
Systemically Important Technology Institutions (SITIs) will be required to adhere to strict standards in financial stability and risk management.
They must also comply with advanced cybersecurity measures to protect against potential threats. This increased burden of compliance will
weigh heavily on some technology companies but will at last secure the new economy of digital assets that many have come to rely on.

TECH WEB3
WEB2 & WEB3

INTEGRATION

TECH WEB3
WEB2 & WEB3 INTEGRATION

Digital Content Provenance and Authentication ty and easy verification of model outputs. a sneaker release that are convertible into a
As more and more platforms adopt AI, it be- physical part of shoes once they’re produced.
While progress has been swift, larger strides
comes increasingly important for users to be ALTS by Adidas offer NFTs with perks for
are necessary to get these technologies
able to verify the origin and authenticity of dig- holders, like exclusive access to drops.
deployed at scale to protect consumers from
ital content. C2PA, the coalition of major tech
malicious and false information and content Web2 and Web3 native NFT projects are
companies founded in 2020 looking to develop
creators’ ownership of their digital content. also converging. Blue-chip NFT projects like
an open-source infrastructure to protect digital
Doodles and Pudgy Penguins have launched
content and consumers from fake news, has NFTs: Beyond the JPEG clothing and toy lines, and Nouns DAO
seen its membership increase by 60% over the
When NFTs hit the mainstream, they focused funded a full-length movie featuring popular
past year due to interest in AI.
on JPEG art. While this made NFTs a house- NFT characters. Even if NFT trading markets
Digital watermarking can help human content hold term, the technology’s ease of transfer, never return to the highs they reached in
creators by marking human content that’s easy verification, historical ownership track- 2021 and 2022, the technology is helping
used in AI training to make sure it doesn’t ing, and immutability have benefits beyond businesses and projects acquire, develop,
run afoul of copyright laws. In contrast, cryp- pictures-for-profiles. Now, NFTs are being de- collaborate with, and monetize a deeper con-
tographic hash functions that track and store ployed to digitize ownership of assets in the nection with communities.
the data manipulation history of assets can real estate industry, make event ticketing
help human consumers. Zero-knowledge more secure, and augment retailers’ loyalty
proofs can also help authenticate AI output programs.
by providing a model with certain conditions
Consumer-facing companies are entering
without revealing how the model created the
Web3 with NFTs at the core of their strat-
output. Of course, in the future, as AIs start to
egy: Nike, Starbucks, and Ducati have NFT Starbucks launched an NFT project in Korea called
be involved in higher-stakes decisions, there
programs that bridge the gap between their ‘Starbucks Starlight’ which encourages customers
will be more incentives to tamper with or re-
physical and digital products. Puma and NBA to use their own cups.
place the model. Modulus Labs is experiment-
player LaMelo Ball partnered with Open Sea
ing with chain AI deployments for high visibili- Image Credit: Starbucks
and Gutter Cat Gang to sell NFT versions of

TECH WEB3

Self-Sovereign Identity Solutions of profit incentives and consumer visibility. private blockchain networks and that which
Growing online interactions dramatically However, US and EU government agencies is underway in public blockchain networks.
increase the data people share with third par- are offering grants and installing mandates On private blockchains, companies like Citi-
ties. While centralized providers like Google to allow decentralized identity solutions to group and Goldman Sachs are experiment-
and Facebook make it easy to sign in with one be built into consumer-facing wallets. In the ing with tokenized digital securities mar-
click, this enables tracking and puts con- EU, decentralized identity wallets are ex- kets to facilitate faster and more efficient
sumer data at significant risk. In response, pected to launch as part of its 2030 Digital financial services. On the public blockchain,
organizations like The Linux Foundation, W3C, Decade program next year. US government bonds have been tokenized—
and the Decentralized Identity Foundation Maker, Tether, and USDC use US treasuries
Tokenization of TradFi, Digital Assets & as collateral.
have developed software standards that allow
Security Tokens
users to manage access to their data.
The tokenization of real-world assets—se- Another area of development is in the tokeni-
Self-sovereign identity (SSI) digitizes iden- curity tokens—has been a bright spot in zation of physical collectibles. In September,
tity, giving data owners control of their blockchain development. So far, security Arcade.xyz, a protocol specializing in peer-
digital identities, enabling access to digital tokens have had limited implementation. to-peer loans, facilitated a $1.1 million loan
ecosystems, and giving users control over One exception is Japan, which already has a where an NFT of a Supreme T-shirt collection
what details of their identity are shared with thriving security token market focused on was used as collateral. Many prominent fig-
different parties. While SSI has no set stan- tokenizing corporate bonds or real estate– ures and consulting firms see the tokeniza-
dard, it typically combines distributed ledger backed securities. tion of assets as a potential multitrillion-dol-
technology and cryptography with verifiable lar market for blockchain technology.
credentials and decentralized identifiers. SSI Growth is on the horizon: More organizations
could reduce data breaches, as companies no are adopting security tokens, more juris-
longer need to store personal information. dictions offer regulatory clarity, and bond Microsoft launched Entra Verified ID in early 2024
market yields are increasing. The industry to include Face Check, a facial matching feature.
Players like J.P. Morgan, Workday, and Micro- is experiencing two trajectories of security
Image credit: Microsoft
soft have decentralized ID projects, but adop- tokens: tokenization that occurs in closed or
tion has been slow, likely because of the lack

TECH WEB3

Credibility Scoring and Anonymity On-chain credit calculations have a lower for their lack of fun. These days, blockchain
DeFi lending is not capital efficient: Most risk, but blending on- and off-chain data will advancements in scalability and usability
DeFi loans are overcollateralized. To fix that at a minimum result in pseudonyms. Off- have enabled developers to create AA and
balance, lending companies are turning to chain credit scores will tie directly to indi- AAA titles. Game studios such as Star Atlas,
conventional means of credit risk scoring us- vidual identities. This could be a significant Gala Games, Bright Star, and others are deep
ing on-chain data and nontraditional metrics deterrent for crypto natives for whom ano- into developing such games.
focusing on reputational scoring of addresses nymity is crucial. Still, for the next wave of
Traditional gaming companies have hesi-
based on DeFi activity. adopters who are used to standard identity
tated to adopt blockchain. Still, companies
verification, it may have less impact.
Companies like Spectral pull on-chain data like Zynga and Ubisoft are experimenting
for accounts and use AI algorithms to an- On-Chain Gaming: Play, Own, Earn & Enjoy with on-chain games—most notably Zynga’s
alyze lending, borrowing, and other history “Sugartown.” It’s built on Ethereum and just
On-chain games incorporate blockchain tech- Sugartown is a Web3 gaming platform created
and output a credit score. Other protocols dropped an NFT collection tied to the project.
nology, ranging from fully on-chain games to by Zynga.
like Taraxa and Cred Protocol use a mixture of Zynga has a history of producing high-qual-
those that only have digital assets on-chain.
on-chain and off-chain reputational metrics ity hits, and the game’s success could pave Image Credit: Zynga
Fully on-chain games have all the benefits
to enhance score outputs. DeFi is also using the way for users’ increased familiarity with
of blockchain, including alternative fund-
off-chain credit scores, like those reported by on-chain assets, tokens, and staking. This
ing, community development, decentralized
TransUnion. The company’s partnership with could in turn lead to increased Web3 integra-
serverless development, player ownership,
Web3 companies Quadrata and Spring Labs tion and game development in the future.
composability, and player-driven economies.
allows users to port their credit scores direct-
ly into DeFi applications. While the benefits of on-chain gaming are
attractive, game deployments are subject
While credit scores improve capital efficiency, to current capacity constraints of public
attaching scores to blockchain reduces user blockchains. This has resulted in the release
anonymity, a core tenant of the technology. of initially slow turn-based games involving
The range of impact depends on the solution: trading cards or battles that were criticized

TECH WEB3
SCENARIOS
SCENARIO YEAR 2032
What If We Used AI To Monetize Privacy?

Are you tired of feeling like your personal data is out of your control? Well now you can rest easy with DataSentinel. This game-changing protec-
tion in digital privacy and data control is powered by AI, and purpose-built to keep you safe. Imagine a world where you are the master of your
data. With DataSentinel, that world is now a reality. DataSentinel’s cutting-edge self-sovereign identity solutions keep your private data stored
securely and decentralized—meaning you, and only you, have the keys to your digital kingdom.
Here’s the best part: With DataSentinel, you can monetize your data. That’s right, turn your data into dollars! DataSentinel’s AI-powered system
optimizes your data, making it valuable for companies willing to pay for your insights. It’s time your data started working for you!
The security on DataSentinel is top-notch. Thanks to blockchain technology, your personal information is safe and sound. Plus, you have the
power to grant or revoke access as you see fit. It’s like having a digital bodyguard. Gone are the days when companies could exploit your data
without your consent. With DataSentinel, you forge a new path in the digital world, one where privacy isn’t just a feature—it’s a right.
Let’s not forget about convenience! DataSentinel models are like personal assistants for your digital life, handling everything with the utmost
confidentiality and efficiency. In compliance with the strictest data privacy regulations, DataSentinel ensures you’re always in the driver’s seat
of your digital identity. So, if you’re ready to take control of your digital life, sign up for DataSentinel and join the digital revolution. Your data will
thank you!

TECH WEB3
AUTHORS &
CONTRIBUTORS

TECH WEB3
MELANIE SUBIN
Managing Director
Melanie Subin is Managing tication, changing consumer and business preferences, and rising
Director of Future Today Insti- connectivity on the evolution and transformation of industries and
tute, where she serves on our markets across the globe.
management committee and
Melanie is a recognized expert in fostering psychological safe-
leads our consulting division.
ty within teams, a crucial element for operationalizing strategic
Renowned for her pragmatic, forward-thinking approach, Melanie
foresight effectively. Her work emphasizes creating an environment
has successfully steered numerous clients towards future-ready
where open dialogue and innovative thinking are encouraged,
strategies, harnessing emerging trends and technologies to identify
enabling organizations to embrace change and navigate future
risk and opportunity early enough for action. Her leadership has
uncertainties with confidence.
significantly impacted how industries envision and execute their
long-term strategies. Melanie serves in the World Economic Forum’s Metaverse Work-
ing Group and is a founding member of the Dubai Future Forum’s
Melanie specializes in strategic transformation, quantitative and
advisory group. She serves as a coach in the strategic foresight MBA
qualitative research, and scenario development. With deep exper-
course at the NYU Stern School of Business. Melanie holds a BS in
tise in the development and establishment of foresight capabilities
Finance from Central Connecticut State University and a Fintech
within large organizations, Melanie regularly counsels C-staff on
Certification from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.
strategy and execution. She has spent years assessing the impact
of major external forces such as increasing technological sophis-

TECH WEB3
GRANT TINKER Chief Executive Officer

Associate AMY WEBB
Grant Tinker served as a Strategic Foresight Consultant at Future Creative Director

Today Institute following his graduation from NYU Stern School of EMILY CAUFIELD
Business, where he earned an MBA with specializations in strategy,
entrepreneurship & innovation, and marketing. He brings a strong Editor
financial background as a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) and ERICA PETERSON
his multiple years of corporate finance experience from SaaS companies in Silicon Valley to his work.
In addition to his MBA, Grant holds a Bachelor of Science in Economics from California Polytechnic Copy Editor
SARAH JOHNSON
State University.
Director of Operations
CHERYL COONEY

TECH WEB3
SELECTED
SOURCES

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METAVERSE • NEW REALITIES

TECH METAVERSE & NEW REALITIES
TABLE OF CONTENTS
208 Top Headlines 223 Voice, Gesture, and Neural 232 Connected Well-being and VR 242 World Building on Blockchain
209 State of Play Interfaces Assisted Therapy
242 Events in the Metaverse
210 Key Events 224 Senses in the Metaverse 232 Medical Metaverse
242 AR Lenses and Filters
211 Likely Near Term 224 Movement in the Metaverse 233 Scenario: Exploring Mars with
243 Holograms
Developments Man’s Best Friend
225 Scenario: A House Divided
243 Real Estate in the Metaverse
212 Why Metaverse & New 226 Digital Identity 234 Education in the Metaverse
Realities Trends Matter 244 Worlds for Purpose
227 Avatars 234 Synthetic Media in Hollywood
to Your Organization 244 Worlds for the Enterprise
227 Avatar Portability 234 Forensic AR / VR
213 When Will Metaverse & New 245 Play-to-Earn and Virtual
Realities Trends Impact Your 227 Hyperrealistic Avatars 235 Metaverse-Enhanced Science
Marketplaces
Organization? 236 Scenario: Experiential
228 Fragmentation of Virtual 246 Scenario: Cosplay Category
214 Opportunities and Threats Identity Equations
Announcement
237 Psychosocial Dynamics and
215 Investments and Actions 228 Leasing identity 247 Metaverse Infrastructure
Inclusivity in the Metaverse
To Consider
229 Synthetic Speech 248 Interoperability
238 Situated VR
216 Central Themes
229 Synthetic Personalities 248 Government Investment
238 The Panopticon
218 Ones To Watch
230 Applications 248 Developer Tools and
238 XR Accessibility
219 Important Terms Application Building Blocks
231 Virtual Training for Real
221 Metaverse Form Factor World Jobs 239 Diminished Sensory Overload
249 Interdevice Synchronization
222 Headsets 231 Industrial True-to-Reality 239 Cybersickness
249 5G for the Metaverse
Simulations and Digital Twins 240 Scenario: “Visiting” Pregnancy
222 Smart Glasses 250 Authors
231 Human Digital Twins 241 Experiencing Immersive
223 Haptic Wearables 252 Selected Sources
Worlds

TOP HEADLINES 01 Meta and Apple Impress with New VR Hand Tracking
and Gesture Recognition
The tech giants’ latest headsets showcase hand tracking and gesture recognition
The metaverse capabilities offering users a more intuitive way to interact with virtual environments.
sees a cooldown
02 Events in the Metaverse Flop
from its initial hype, Metaverse Fashion Week saw major brands invest but drew few visitors, who found it
lonely and dull. Substantial investment and creativity are needed to boost engagement.
marking a phase
of recalibration 03 Metaverse Layoffs: Meta and Disney Scale Back Amid Cooling Hype
As the initial excitement around the metaverse wanes, Meta reduced its workforce, and
and more realistic Disney shut down its division dedicated to exploring metaverse opportunities, signaling
expectations. a reset in the industry’s approach.
04 Deepfakes Emerge as a Concern Ahead of Election Cycle

While some are entertainment, the technology’s potential for fabricating hyperrealistic
news and political footage to deceive voters is alarming ahead of upcoming elections.
Experts worry viral deepfakes could spread misinformation across social media.
05 Early Adopters Explore Digital Twins for the Enterprise

Innovative early adopters in sectors like autonomous vehicles and smart cities
are looking into the potential of digital twins.

TECH
INDUSTRY METAVERSE & NEW REALITIES
STATE When Facebook rebranded as Meta in 2021, it bet big on leading the next computing platform—the
metaverse. However, early criticisms emerged, given the rudimentary state of virtual and augment-
ed reality (AR) technology at the time, with many clunky headsets and cartoonish avatars. The spot-
OF PLAY
light soon shifted when OpenAI unveiled ChatGPT in 2022, captivating public interest in AI. Unlike
past AI systems, ChatGPT’s accessibility enabled mainstream user interaction for the first time,
representing a key inflection point. This overshadowed enthusiasm for the metaverse, which was
having adoption challenges. Disney retreated on its own metaverse goals amid disillusionment,
and Meta’s Reality Labs posted a staggering $13.7 billion loss in 2022.
Yet in 2023, major tech players recognized the potential in fusing AI and metaverse technologies
to take immersive simulations to the next level. Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg unveiled strikingly
realistic virtual avatars, enabled by AI—a major leap in simulation quality. Microsoft shared plans to
blend its AI Copilot with HoloLens 2, delivering an AR experience for workers. And Apple introduced
Overshadowed by the rise Vision Pro, a spatial computing headset employing machine learning for more natural user interac-
tions. Rather than competing trends, AI and the metaverse now appear poised to complement each
of artificial intelligence, the other. The future points to AI-enabled metaverse experiences that feel increasingly personalized by
learning user preferences.
metaverse is searching for new
Meta also unveiled more subtle technologies like smart glasses, signaling a shift in consumer
potential through AI integration, preferences for extended reality (XR) technologies that integrate digital experiences with physical
reality. In doing so, these technologies could enhance human connection, as the technical interface
evolving from initial hype to a fades into the background, replacing screen-centric interactions with more natural, human-cen-
tered ones. Spaces and the nature of work could be transformed, reducing our reliance on tradition-
measured and mature future. al screens and keyboards, and potentially revolutionizing the built environment and our interac-
tions with computers. The form factor of XR technology could evolve to where our natural actions
and environments become the primary means of interaction, ushering in a new era of computing
that is more integrated with daily life. This evolution mirrors AI advancements in natural language,
enabling more intuitive metaverse interactions.
In many ways, the trajectories of AI and the metaverse have come full circle. What began as sepa-
rate trends with muted enthusiasm has given way to recognition of their interdependence in creat-
ing more immersive digital interactions. Their futures are now fundamentally linked, with advances
in one enabling progress in the other.

KEY EVENTS
F E B R UA RY 1 , 2 0 2 3 O C TO B E R 2 3 , 2 0 2 3 F E B R U A RY 2 , 2 0 2 4
A Long-Term Vision is Challenged Saudi Cities Embrace Digital Twins Apple Vision Pro is Released
Meta’s Reality Labs division, specializing South Korea’s Naver wins a $100 million Apple released its newest mixed
in AR and VR technologies, reports deal to create digital twins for five Saudi reality headset with over 600 apps,
significant operating losses of $13.7 cities, enhancing urban planning and flood video passthrough, and spatial audio.
billion for 2022. management.
SEPTEMBER 28, 2023 N OV E M B E R 1 5 , 2 0 2 3
Meta Town Hall Highlights AR Metaverse Medical Market

Mark Zuckerberg showcases Ray-Ban smart Ocutrx’s OcuLenz AR headset, designed for
glasses as key to Meta’s subtle, stylish AR shift. macular degeneration, highlights medical
Shortly after, Meta Quest 3 debuts, offering applications as a key path for AR technology
advanced mixed reality experiences but adoption beyond entertainment.
garners mixed reviews and slow adoption.


THE FOUNDATIONS OF THE METAVERSE Completely Hands-Free Experience Metaverse-Tailored Offerings Metaverse World Building for All
As virtual experiences become more
As delivery routes and last-mile deliveries As climate change continues to be a disrup- Increased automation and use of virtual
embedded into daily life, we can expect
continue to increase in speed and complexity, tion, logistics providers will explore how they agents raise the need for workers to know how
growing pains. Regulators must balance automation will let logistics companies cre- can insure against extreme weather events. to manage new tech-enabled work and tasks.
guidelines that ensure integrity without ate an intricate web of delivery offerings that These costs could be passed along to con- This upskilling could be done through remote
restricting an nascent industry. Tapid can be unique to each customer. sumers who choose goods from more volatile learning and working opportunities.
advances precipitate more seamless, regions.
intuitive user experiences. Hands-free
environments feel within reach as inno-
vations like gesture control tech remove Extended Reality Gets Serious Regulators Target Virtual Trading Consumer Push for Interoperability
friction. Past the hype, enterprise use cas-
es will gain traction, and efficiency gains With workers continuing to grow in scarcity, With manufacturing locations moving closer Global conflicts, combined with consumers
will drive adoption beyond novelty appeal. virtual agents will take over back-of-house to the consumer and e-commerce increasing, and businesses wary of supporting govern-
work in the warehouse. These virtual agents manufacturers need to consider how to create ments with values antithetical to their own
Generative AI will further accelerate pro-
will soon be able to oversee themselves and products in the exact spot as their consumers. will increase demand for verification of supply
liferation by enabling amateur creators to
their cobot workers, reducing the need for chains. Granular data collection and transmis-
construct fully realized 3D worlds without human intervention. sion will enable this shift in transparency.
coding skills. With increased adoption,
interoperability will rise as a priority.
Metaverse technology has perpetually 11 MACRO SOURCES OF DISRUPTION
searched for a wide audience—if it fails to
reach the mainstream consumer, indus-
trial use cases may take over. Medical,
industrial, or civic metaverses may be
the first to find product-market fit. Their
focused nature could lend itself more Technology Media & Demographics Environment Government Public Health Education Geopolitics Infrastructure Economy Wealth
readily to creating utility and value.

WHY METAVERSE & NEW REALITIES TRENDS MATTER TO YOUR ORGANIZATION
Avatars Enable Digital Twins Save The Dual Edge of Metaverse Unlocks Safely Mastering Early XR Adoption
Personalization But Time, Money, and Hyperrealistic Avatars Immersive Marketing High-Risk Skills Boosts Workforce
Fragment Identity Reduce Risk Avenues Dynamics
Hyperrealistic avatars will Digital twins will Hyperrealistic avatars Immersive virtual worlds XR in enterprise Augmented reality could
enable more personalized revolutionize enterprise offer brands detailed offer a new frontier for training rapidly upskills reduce reliance on screens,
brand experiences, but operations by enabling customer insights but brand marketing. In employees’ safely, even minimizing screen fatigue
consumer identity may virtual prototyping, risk misuse. They enable the metaverse, brands in high-risk areas. and enabling more natural
fragment across multiple testing, and optimizing. lifelike interactions can engage customers Realistic simulations human-computer collabora-
avatars tailored to Companies can digitally and richer data while through lifelike, for tasks like operating tion. Spatial overlays could
different contexts. This iterate designs and supporting a deeper personalized interactions, machinery or handling also optimize workflows by
complicates marketing stress test ideas for understanding of blending products and emergencies build skills aligning virtual models with
analysis, as brands must better quality, gaining target demographics. messages into the virtual and confidence without physical spaces. As XR ad-
derive insights from a competitive edge in However, the potential for cultural fabric. This real-world risks. This vances, traditional seated
fragmented consumer market speed while deepfakes makes identity narrative-based approach leads to a workforce desk work may transition
journeys and understand minimizing downtime validation a challenge and boosts virality and peer adept at complex jobs, to immersive environments
core motivations and disruption. By saving puts brand reputations sharing, while rich data reducing mistakes. XR centered on voice and ges-
persisting across digital money and managing at risk. The ability to trust informs strategy and training offers quicker tures rather than mouse
identities. risk, this shift to virtual the accuracy of avatar product development. proficiency, lower risk, clicks. Built spaces could
environments will drive identities will be critical Substantial investment and no need for physical be reimagined, reducing
innovation. for ensuring messaging in creative talent and practice, optimizing fixed real estate costs and
reaches intended technology is essential talent development and promising more ergonom-
audiences. for establishing top-tier shortening onboarding. ic, satisfying, and dynamic
experiences. work routines with less
dependence on screens.

WHEN WILL THE METAVERSE & NEW REALITIES DISRUPT YOUR ORGANIZATION?
Digital twins in manufacturing Holograms Decentralized identity Full interoperability
Hands-free virtual Enterprise XR collaboration Spatial mapping
Photo-realistic avatars Spatial computing 6G-enabled metaverse
Multifactor biometric sensing Digital twins in health
Normalized use of avatars

in collaboration platforms

The lack of asset and avatar portability across platforms like Meta Horizon Digital twins can serve as powerful tools for testing, optimizing, and making
or Microsoft Mesh limits the metaverse’s potential and user experience. more informed decisions in a controlled setting. They help with proactive
The inability to transfer digital assets across different metaverse platforms maintenance, predicting failures before they occur, and reducing downtime.
creates a fragmented and restrictive environment.
Metaverse marketing could bring brands closer to consumers and influencers
There is significant risk in prioritizing proprietary control, and those seeking closer to their followers. It enables interactive spaces for community building
walled-garden dominance risk stunted growth. If standardized protocols are so users can interact not only with the brand but also with each other,
not developed as they were for the internet, the metaverse’s vision may not be
enhancing loyalty and engagement.
actualized and it will be a flop.
Virtual training offers efficient skill development in low-risk environments,
The advancement of synthetic media has given rise to substantial ethical
challenges, particularly around the issue of consent. Both public figures and improving employee competencies and safety. Trainees can experience realistic
private individuals face the prospect of their likenesses being replicated scenarios without the dangers associated with real-life training, and it reduces
without permission, prompting serious concerns about autonomy and the need for physical resources, travel, and on-site training facilities.
control over digital identities.
With companies integrating metaverse capabilities into platforms like Teams,
The creation of digital replicas raises philosophical questions about the remote collaboration is becoming more effective. Enhanced AI translations and
authenticity of human expression and the ethical implications of creating the metaverse’s elimination of geographical constraints means global teams
and interacting with digital beings that mimic real individuals. can overcome language and distance barriers to access talent.
The metaverse could exacerbate isolation and detachment from reality. The The companies that contribute most meaningfully to open standards
lack of physical human interaction could diminish the quality of real-world and standardized protocols will emerge as long-term winners. By building
relationships, leading to feelings of loneliness and disconnection. compatibility across platforms, these companies can expand their reach,
enabling their products to seamlessly integrate with a range of metaverse
environments and tools.
1 2 3 4 5 6
Pursue novel brand interac- Get ahead of unintended Spearhead industry in- Use immersive training for Differentiate with digital Accelerate development
tions. Rather than mirroring consequences. Monitor teroperability standards. risk mitigation. Leverage previews. Build 3D virtual cycles. Construct digital
real-world marketing in vir- early metaverse adopters Get ahead of fragmenta- XR for disaster prepared- models of spaces to allow prototypes of products
tual spaces, explore novel across functions for poten- tion by convening an indus- ness, hazardous environ- remote previews and walk- early in the design process
modalities unique to these tial psycho-social impacts, try consortium to align on ment rehearsals, and other throughs. For real estate, for rapid iteration and
mediums. Provide value and implement support metaverse interoperability high-risk training needs. this enables global proper- user testing in VR. Refine
via exclusive metaverse systems proactively, like VR- standards early. Prioritize Repeatable virtual drills ty tours. Hotels and venues designs, materials, and in-
experiences that offer in- based counseling or hybrid user portability and plat- identify gaps efficiently at can offer virtual site visits teractions before physical
timacy at scale. Stay atop work policies. Navigate this form connectivity. Lead lower risk and cost than live to event planners. Unique production. Democratize
innovations in synthetic responsibility wisely. here before ecosystems exercises. visibility and accessibili- innovation by extending
media and immersive splinter and momentum ty become a competitive tools to customers.
technologies to remain makes alignment difficult. edge.
cutting-edge.

CENTRAL THEMES
The Quest for Connection The Technological Symphony of the Metaverse AI: Not Parallel But Key to Actualizing
the Metaverse
There is a nuanced interplay between digital immer- The metaverse stands as a technological apex, relying
sion and the desire to maintain a connection with the on the culmination and integration of various ad- AI is not just an accompanying technology in the devel-
physical world. Consumers increasingly show a pref- vanced technologies still in development. Its realiza- opment of the metaverse; it is a critical driver making
erence for augmented reality over virtual reality, indi- tion hinges on the progress of numerous fields, includ- the metaverse’s existence and functionality possible.
cating a broader inclination toward digital experiences ing powerful battery technology, enhanced connectivity For instance, a key contribution of AI in the metaverse
that complement, rather than replace, the physical and the widespread deployment of 5G, as well as the is the enhancement of user interactions through ad-
environment. The social dimension of the metaverse evolution of wearable devices. This convergence sug- vanced natural language processing. This technology
is equally critical. For the metaverse to be genuinely gests that the idealize vision of the metaverse is not allows for more natural and intuitive communication
transformative, it needs to enhance social connections just an isolated development but rather the endpoint within virtual environments, making interactions with
rather than create isolation. Its success will largely of numerous technological trajectories. These include AI-driven avatars and interfaces more fluid and life-
depend on its ability to foster genuine human interac- significant advancements in computing power, so- like. Moreover, AI facilitates the creation of expansive,
tion and community building. However, this new digital phisticated AI algorithms, and innovations in the en- complex virtual worlds. It enables the rendering of
frontier is also reshaping social dynamics in profound tertainment sector, all of which are crucial in shaping highly detailed and dynamic environments, which can
ways. For instance, the increasing use of devices like an immersive, seamless, and interactive metaverse ex- adapt and respond to user interactions in real time.
smart glasses, which can record interactions, intro- perience. As such, the journey toward the fully realized Additionally, AI contributes to the personalization of
duces a new dynamic in social behavior. People may metaverse is as much about the progression of these experiences within the metaverse. By analyzing user
modify their behavior, knowing they could be recorded individual technologies as it is about their harmonious data and behavior, AI can tailor experiences to individ-
at any time, affecting the authenticity of social ex- integration. ual preferences. This customization capability will be
changes. In essence, the metaverse is not just a tech- necessary for making the metaverse less like a generic
nological space but a social one, heavily influenced by virtual space and one that feels uniquely relevant to
human behavior and societal norms. each user.

CENTRAL THEMES
The Invisible Interface Fragmented Realities The Serious Business of the Metaverse
An overarching drive toward more natural interactions While individual companies are making strides devel- While consumer applications have driven much of
underscores a key vision emerging for the metaverse. oping their own metaverse platforms and capabilities, the initial enthusiasm for metaverse technologies,
For input, companies like Meta, Apple, and Snap are true interoperability across these disparate ecosys- substantial enterprise use cases are emerging across
developing innovations in voice control, hand ges- tems remains elusive. Challenges persist around asset domains like training, digital twins, and remote col-
tures, and even neural signals that interpret eye and portability and avatar interoperability across differ- laboration. These practical business applications have
facial muscle movements. These updates remove the ent virtual platforms. A custom-built avatar remains the potential to push adoption further into the main-
need for traditional physical controls, aligning with confined to a single walled metaverse garden like Meta stream. Immersive training simulations are already
a frontier of silent, seamless interaction powered by Horizon or Microsoft Mesh. Purchasing a virtual Gucci being deployed by companies like Walmart, BMW, and
AI. Gesture technology is advancing rapidly, pointing bag in one world doesn’t automatically transfer digital- Lufthansa to develop employee skills and knowledge in
to hands-free experiences. Neural signals take this ly to other environments. This fragmentation severely low-risk virtual environments. Industries from avia-
even further by tapping directly into biological cues limits the scope and potential of the metaverse. Users tion to medicine are utilizing digital twins of complex
to enable control through cognition alone. For output, wish to move fluidly between experiences, carrying systems to enable virtual testing and optimization. For
advances in haptics and multisensory technologies their digital possessions and personas with them. remote work, Microsoft is integrating metaverse capa-
point to a future beyond visuals and audio, where vir- Creators want to build once and deploy everywhere, bilities directly into Teams, which has over 270 million
tual experiences feel increasingly tactile and lifelike. not redo work for each platform. For the metaverse users. This allows colleagues to collaborate via lifelike
The emergence of these subtle, intuitive technologies to mirror the connected nature of the physical world, avatars and spatial layouts in virtual meeting envi-
reveals we are slowly starting to actualize one vision technical infrastructure enabling this cross-platform ronments. While startups are innovating, Microsoft’s
of the metaverse: for the interface between humans continuity is critical. While metaverse pioneers are massive reach gives it potential to make VR meetings
and technology to fade into the background, becoming acknowledging this necessity, competitive pressures a workplace norm. As these use cases demonstrate
almost invisible. and commercial interests of tech giants currently take concrete ROI in areas from employee productivity and
precedence over open collaboration. safety to time and cost savings, enterprise adoption
can help further validate and destigmatize metaverse
technologies.

ONES TO WATCH
Andrew “Boz” Bosworth, CFO and head of Henry Liu, professor of civil engineering and Dr. Mikael Benson, researcher at the De- Jose Fuertes, founder and CEO of OWO, for
Meta’s Reality Labs, for being Mark Zucker- director of Mcity and the Center for Connected partment of Clinical Science, Intervention, developing haptic vests for virtual gaming.
berg’s right-hand man and overseeing more and Automated Transportation at the Univer- and Technology at Karolinska Institutet, for
than 20,400 people in realizing Meta’s vision sity of Michigan, for advancements in simu- research on digital twins for treatment of Jake Rubin, founder, chairman, and CEO at
for the metaverse. lated driving environments. inflammatory diseases. HaptX, for working to bring virtual worlds to
life through realistic touch.
Tamir Berliner and Tomer Kahan, co-founders Akash Nigam, CEO of Genies, for develop- Pouya Hamadanian, electrical engineering
of Sightful Spacetop, for innovation in spatial ment of decentralized avatar systems in the and computer science graduate student and Jensen Huang, CEO and president of Nvidia,
computing interfaces. metaverse. lead author at MIT, for work on Ekho, which for envisioning the Omniverse platform and
synchronizes audio and visual streams developer ecosystem to build the industrial
Tara Boroushaki, Laura Dodds, Aline Eid, Dr. Seung-Kwon Seol, researcher at the transmitting to two devices. metaverse and a clear path to metaverse
and Maisy Lam, researchers at MIT, for contri- Smart 3D Printing Research Team at Korea revenue.
butions to augmented reality with non-line-of- Electrotechnology Research Institute, for work Elizabeth Haas, an adjunct professor at NYU
sight perception. on smart contact lenses for AR-based naviga- School of Professional Studies, founding Soo-yeon Choi, CEO of Naver, for instru-
tion. director at NYU SPS Emerging Technologies mental work in developing the digital twin
Dr. Tim Bunnell, director at the Nemours Cen- Collaborative, and partner at New York Con- cities project between South Korea and Saudi
ter for Pediatric Auditory and Speech Scienc- Chat Steelberg, CEO of Veritone, for advance- sulting Partners, for writing about cities and Arabia, which will revolutionize real-time de-
es, for work on AI-generated video clips that ments in synthetic Voice as a Service (VaaS) technologies. cision-making, prediction, and optimization
mimic accents and speech patterns. solutions. of urban infrastructure.
Dr. Sarah E. MacPherson, head of psycholo-
Professor Garuda Fujii, researcher at Shin- Dr. Yu Xinge, associate professor in the gy and professor at the School of Philosophy, Yacine Achiakh, CEO and founder of Wisear,
shu University’s Institute of Engineering and Department of Biomedical Engineering at Psychology, and Language Sciences, Univer- for pioneering the development of the first
ELab2, for innovative approaches to designing City University of Hong Kong, for co-leading a sity of Edinburgh, for her work on cybersick- earphones with a neural interface, enabling
source-shifter structures. study on wireless olfactory feedback systems ness in immersive digital reality. hands-free, voice-free control of XR devices.
in VR.
Grimes, musician and artist, for pioneering Michael Barnett-Cowan, professor at the
new business models in AI-generated voice Dr. Yon Visell, associate professor of biolog- Department of Kinesiology and Health Sci-
synthesis. ical engineering at University of California, ences, University of Waterloo, for his work on
Santa Barbara, for work on haptic holography. motion sickness in VR games.
Im Doo Jung, a professor in the Department of
Mechanical Engineering at UNIST, for work on Joshua Xu, CEO and co-founder of HeyGen, for
smart contact lenses for AR-based navigation. innovations in translation services.

IMPORTANT TERMS
Augmented reality (AR) of interconnected virtual worlds, as opposed to Haptics Mixed reality (MR)
A technology that overlays digital information, closed, proprietary platforms. Technology related to tactile sensations and feed- A hybrid form of reality that merges the real and
images, and objects onto the real-world environ- back. Can include vibration, motion, pressure, and virtual worlds to produce new environments and
ment. Users see virtual elements mixed into their Deepfakes temperature changes. visualizations where physical and digital objects
actual surroundings through a device screen or AR Manipulated video/audio that uses AI to realis- coexist and interact in real time.
glasses/headset. tically substitute someone’s likeness and voice Holography
in existing content without their consent, raising A technique for creating three-dimensional Neural interfaces
Avatar ethical concerns. projections; it’s becoming key in populating the Technologies that connect directly to the user’s
A digital representation of a user, often in the form metaverse with realistic avatars and environments, neural activity, like brain waves or facial muscle
of a 3D model or illustration. Avatars serve as a Digital twins and merging with technologies like deepfake for signals, to enable hands-free and silent control.
user’s persona in online/virtual environments. Virtual replications of physical systems used for various applications.
simulation and optimization. Non-fungible tokens (NFTs)
Cybersickness Human-machine interfaces Unique digital assets representing ownership of vir-
Nausea or motion sickness experienced by some VR Experiential artifacts The components and methods through which hu- tual items like land and avatars in the metaverse,
users due to proprioception disorientation. It arises Lingering sensory and cognitive effects in VR users, mans interact with and control machines, like key- made credible and secure through blockchain
from the mismatch between perceived and actual blurring the lines between virtual and real-world boards, mice, touchscreens, and voice commands. technology.
spatial positions in VR, with research suggesting experiences. These artifacts result from the dis-
that factors like vertical orientation perception and sonance between virtual and physical realities, Hyperrealistic avatars Olfactory feedback
inclusion of music can influence its severity. leading to feelings of disembodiment or altered Highly detailed avatars that closely mimic a Technology that generates smells and aromas dig-
physical world perceptions. person’s real facial features, expressions, and itally, allowing smells to be simulated in a virtual
Data portability movements through advanced 3D modeling and environment.
The ability for users to transfer their digital iden- Extended reality (XR) scanning.
tities, including avatars, and associated data An umbrella term that encompasses virtual reality, Panopticon
between platforms and services. augmented reality, and mixed reality. XR provides Interoperability A system of control where individuals are aware
immersive digital experiences that blend the Blockchain’s capability allowing assets and infor- they might be watched at any time, leading to
Decentralization physical and virtual worlds across a spectrum of mation to seamlessly transfer between different self-regulation of behavior. In the context of smart
A core principle shared by the metaverse and block- realities. It enhances interactions with the environ- worlds and platforms within the metaverse. glasses, it refers to the heightened sense of being
chain technology, emphasizing an open network ment and digital elements. observed and changing behavior because of it.

IMPORTANT TERMS
Passthrough Synthetic speech
A feature in some headsets that uses outward-fac- AI-generated simulated speech that clones a
ing cameras to display the physical environment person’s vocal characteristics to create natural
to the user while wearing the headset. Provides sounding vocalizations. Enables voice banking,
awareness of surroundings. which benefits people who may lose their ability to
speak later in life.
Play-to-earn games
Virtual environments in the metaverse where play- Virtual reality (VR)
ers can earn real-world value through gameplay, An artificial digital environment that is fully im-
with blockchain technology enabling the collection, mersive and isolates users from the physical world.
breeding, and trading of digital assets as NFTs. Users typically wear a headset with stereoscopic
displays and head tracking to look around the
Situated virtual reality (situated VR)
virtual world.
A concept proposed to align the physical and virtual
worlds, minimizing experiential artifacts. It focuses
on syncing physical actions with virtual feedback
to create a congruent reality, including mirroring
body language and emotional expressions in virtual
and real worlds.
Synthetic personalities
Fully artificial digital influencers and identities
generated through AI training, not tied to any spe-
cific human individual.

METAVERSE
FORM FACTOR

METAVERSE FORM FACTOR

Headsets Meta’s substantial price hike compared to Smart Glasses
While early virtual reality headsets offered its predecessor indicates a strategic piv- Developments in smart glasses aim to
consumers an escapist diversion, the tech- ot from targeting general consumers to make spatial computing technology sub-
nology is maturing, and developers are now focusing on enterprise applications. This tle yet powerful in daily life. In a landmark
targeting more pragmatic industries and repositioning places the headset in direct September 2023 announcement, Meta
experiences. The Meta Quest 3, for instance, competition with established enterprise-fo- collaborated with EssilorLuxottica to unveil
brings a 30% improvement in screen reso- cused devices like Microsoft’s HoloLens 2 Ray-Ban glasses with built-in AI capabilities.
lution, faster processing speed, and a sleek- and Magic Leap 2. Sony’s version, the SonyXR Resembling traditional Ray-Bans in design,
er design. Most notably, outward-facing Headset is primarily tailored for industrial these glasses integrate multimodal sensors
passthrough cameras allow wearers to view applications, aiming to integrate various to interpret the user’s gaze and voice com-
both physical and virtual surroundings. This production stages, such as design and mands. Whether the wearer is curious about
“mixed reality” mitigates the isolating feel prototyping, into the metaverse. By allowing a building or needing a sign translated, Me-
of previous models. Apple’s forthcoming users to construct 3D design models, the ta’s assistant can provide answers without
Vision Pro is also set to incorporate similar headset helps spot and fix problems while hand gestures. Snap plans similar AI inte-
passthrough technology, highlighting an in- plans are still digital, saving money previ- gration for contextual recommendations and
dustry-wide acknowledgment of the need for ously spent on faulty physical prototypes. on-lens edits. Apple likewise has plans to
more interactive and less isolating VR expe- introduce augmented reality glasses, though
Rather than pure escapism, developers seem
riences. The Vision Pro will launch with an ex- details are still forthcoming. Meanwhile, Mi-
concentrated on increasing VR/AR function-
pansive app library spanning entertainment crosoft recently patented swappable batter-
ality across specialized fields moving for-
to productivity. Major streaming services like ies for extended power, potentially enabling
ward. Allowing real environment interaction
Disney+, ESPN, and Amazon Prime Video will comfortable all-day wear by reducing weight.
reflects acknowledgment of earlier issues
be available alongside work apps like Micro- Offloading processing functions to con- Though slimmer smart glasses would blend into
in consumer adoption, while enterprise and
soft 365, Slack and Zoom. nected accessories like backpacks presents social settings better than bulky virtual reality
sensory enhancement applications point to
another option for portable use. headsets, battery limitations pose ongoing chal-
an evolving market for the technology.
lenges to unlocking the full capabilities of the
sleeker wearable technology.

In early 2024, BMW introduced AR technol- Haptic Wearables tracking systems like Sony’s full body suit
ogy in their cars with the help of XrealAir 2 Virtual worlds to date have focused primarily loaded with sensors, the building blocks are
AR glasses. These glasses show navigation, on visual and auditory immersion, but repli- falling into place for the creation of deeply
entertainment, and electric car charging cating tactile sensations presents the next immersive and tactile responsive spaces
information directly to the driver. The intro- frontier for technologies like metaverse plat- within virtual worlds. The end goal is ambi-
duction of smart glasses in vehicles and into forms to conquer. The ability to not just see a tious yet attainable: to produce a metaverse
other parts of our daily life is more than just virtual object but reach out and feel textures, experience that fully engages users across
a technological advance; it’s a societal shift. weights, and movements would provide visual, auditory and, critically, tactile do-
Mobile phones revolutionized the way we in- unprecedented realism. To enable this, mains to enable suspension of disbelief and
teract with the world—pausing to record mo- developers are experimenting with haptic flow state immersion.
ments or look up information. Smart glasses wearables—gloves, vests, or suits equipped
promise the same but with an added layer of Voice, Gesture, and Neural Interfaces
with actuators to simulate different sensa-
immersion: You can live stream your expe- tions through vibration, electrical stimula- Human-computer interaction continues
riences while remaining fully present. How- tion, or even tiny inflatable balloons. Simple progressing beyond phones and screens,
ever, this comes with questions about the vibrational alerts via eccentric rotating leveraging modalities like voice and ges-
implications for interpersonal interactions. mass motors are already featured in smart- ture. Virtual assistants have normalized
Will behavior change in a world where people phones and controllers, priming adaptation conversational AI, powered by robust speech
know they could be continually recorded or for games and 3D virtual environments. recognition models. Startups are unveiling
analyzed by AI? In essence, smart glasses Companies like HaptX are leveraging more experimental devices prioritizing intuitive
aren’t merely a new gadget; they represent a advanced pneumatic glove actuators to rep- interactions, like Humane’s screenless
significant leap toward pervasive computing licate lifelike textures and shapes. Spanish wearable pin, which understands natural
and could fundamentally alter our relation- startup OWO recently unveiled a haptic vest language requests. Meta’s Ray-Ban Stories
Just as touchscreens became widespread in the
ship with technology and each other. using electrical signals to induce sensations glasses allow hands-free voice control, while last decade, voice and gesture control are poised
including bullet impacts or stabbings for their VR headsets track hand motions to to be the next major methods for interacting with
gaming and live entertainment applications. manipulate virtual objects. Apple’s Vision computers.
As these devices advance alongside motion Pro will combine subtle finger gesture rec-

ognition with eye tracking, enabling users to virtual objects. To deepen sensory immer- Movement in the Metaverse vidual users, featuring a concave design and
simply look at and point to items they want to sion without physical temperature changes, Disney has developed a new flooring tech- special shoe covers for a realistic walking sen-
select in an augmented environment. Wisear, University of Tsukuba researchers simulate nology called HoloTile that allows users to sation. Additionally, Freedom Technologies is
a French startup, is pushing the boundaries persistent cold sensations through gentle walk freely in any direction without actually working on specialized shoes with AI-enabled
even further with experimental smart ear- air blasts. This exploits the body’s sensitivity moving from their fixed location. Described motorized treadmills in the soles, allowing
buds that detect facial muscle movements to rapid cooling for virtual weather experi- as the “world’s first multi-person, omnidi- for unlimited virtual movement in a confined
and bioelectrical brain signals. By interpret- ences. In odor transmission, Dr. Yu Xinge’s rectional, modular, expandable treadmill physical space. These innovations represent
ing these neural signals, Wisear envisions team at Beihang University developed wire- floor,” HoloTile uses advanced sensors and different approaches to enhancing virtual
completely silent, hands-free control of devic- less olfactory feedback systems with minia- motors to detect a person’s movement and mobility, and it’s still unclear which will dom-
es through minute gestures like tightening turized odor generators. Integrating face- seamlessly shift modular floor sections to inate the market. The choice may depend on
the jaw. Just as touchscreens have become masks and skin patches, these can simulate keep them centered in place. Multiple people specific use cases and user preferences in VR
ubiquitous over the past decade, emerg- environmental scents ranging from flowers can use the floor simultaneously without and AR experiences.
ing modalities like voice, eye tracking, and to smoke. Startup OVR makes headsets that the risk of colliding. In a demonstration
brain-computer interfaces could fundamen- diffuse cartridge fragrances for personalized video, inventor and imagineer Larry Smoot
tally transform how we engage with technolo- aroma experiences. Advances also continue walks through a virtual environment using
gy in the next 10 years. in spatialized audio for lifelike acoustics. a headset while the HoloTile floor adjusts
Professor Garuda Fujii of Shinshu University dynamically beneath him. This technology
Senses in the Metaverse engineered structures that make sounds opens up new possibilities for virtual reality
Recent advancements in human-machine that seem to originate from different loca- and augmented reality, as well as applica-
interfaces are ushering in a new era of mul- tions. By tricking the ears’ spatial perception, tions like interactive theater where actors
tisensory experiences in VR and AR. On the more convincing augmented soundscapes could explore a scene without constraints.
haptic front, researchers at the University of become achievable. As these technologies Disney isn’t alone in its effort to enable more
California, Santa Barbara have focused ul- mature, they pave the way for unified multi- natural movement in the metaverse. Other
trasound waves to induce tactile sensations sensory environments—where users not only companies are exploring similar technolo-
from afar. This noncontact “haptic hologra- see and hear but feel, smell, and taste simu- gies for natural movement in virtual spaces.
phy” allows users to perceive and manipulate lated worlds for unprecedented presence. Virtuix has developed a VR treadmill for indi-

SCENARIOS
SCENARIO YEAR 2030
A House Divided
The Komanduri family finds themselves in a dilemma: a “house divided” not by sports teams or smartphone prefer-
ences, but by their choice of AR/VR ecosystems. The eldest child, Aditya, is an avid fan of Apple’s AR/VR ecosystem,
boasting the latest Apple AR headset and an array of digital accessories. Meanwhile, the younger sibling, Priya, is
deeply immersed in the Meta universe, equipped with the newest Meta Quest and a collection of Meta-exclusive digi-
tal games and experiences. This division has led to more than just friendly sibling rivalry; it’s become a logistical and
financial headache for the parents. Planning family activities in the virtual realm is nearly impossible, as each child is
locked into their respective ecosystems, unable to interact or join the same digital spaces.
The financial strain is palpable. The family has to subscribe to two different “family plans” to accommodate both
ecosystems. What’s more, the digital goods and games purchased for Aditya cannot be passed down to Priya, negating
the possibility of “hand-me-downs” that would have been a cost-saving grace. This means doubling up on purchases
for similar experiences or content, a redundancy that’s both frustrating and expensive.
Birthday and holiday gifts have also become a challenge. A game or digital accessory that delights Aditya is incompat-
ible with Priya’s Meta setup, and vice versa. This has led to careful, sometimes stressful planning to ensure equity and
satisfaction for both children, further adding to the family’s expenses.

DIGITAL
IDENTITY

DIGITAL IDENTITY
Avatars create not only their virtual selves but also es and actions. As such, the issue of avatar clones of individuals—capturing intricate
Avatars have matured beyond static profile the worlds they inhabit. This development portability is inextricably linked to debates facial details, expressions, and motions. Two
images into multifaceted digital represen- opens up new opportunities for user engage- about data ownership. When an avatar can methods exist for generating these sophis-
tations in virtual spaces. Initially serving ment and potentially impacts how busi- cross platforms, there’s a tacit understand- ticated models. Companies like Doob utilize
as basic profile pictures, modern avatars nesses operate in virtual environments. As ing that its underlying data should also be full body scans in studios, comprehensively
manifest as interactive 3D entities capable avatars grow increasingly sophisticated in portable. But who owns that data, especially recording the user’s physical form. Alterna-
of conversation, environmental navigation, mimicking human appearance, motion, and as avatars become increasingly sophisticat- tively, apps like Avatar SDK and itSeez3D
and even simulated physical mannerisms. interaction modalities, they reinforce their ed and personalized, is a point of contention. enable DIY facial scanning directly through
As online activities shift from websites and status as our digital surrogates across the The issue is even more critical when consid- smartphone cameras. By taking a 360 degree
apps toward immersive extended reality (XR) internet’s burgeoning virtual frontiers. ering that some metaverse companies aim image of their face and shoulders, users can
metaverse experiences, avatars are becoming to become comprehensive platforms for a craft impressively realistic avatar likenesses.
Avatar Portability wide range of activities, from reading news Integrating natural language processing and
our primary digital personas—used for social
connections, commerce, and professional Avatar portability in the metaverse, as facil- to socializing to shopping. In such a scenar- vocal mimicry, these avatars graduate beyond
meetings. Microsoft enables Teams users to itated by companies like Ready Player Me, io, the platform that hosts your avatar could appearances to also simulate voices, produc-
utilize 3D avatars for calls, animated by voice intersects with larger discussions about have significant power and control over a ing holistic digital surrogates. One pioneering
cues to function sans webcams. And a 2023 data portability and ownership. Ready Player large swath of your personal data. So, while example was during the recent taping of Lex
podcast hosted in the metaverse demonstrat- Me and its partner, Koji, offer users the abili- Ready Player Me’s tools for avatar creation Fridman’s podcast with Mark Zuckerberg in
ed major upgrades in avatar realism, utilizing ty to create a unified digital identity that can and portability offer users the ability to the metaverse. Utilizing Meta’s advanced “co-
lifelike models of Mark Zuckerberg and Lex migrate across over 200 games and virtual maintain a consistent digital identity across dec avatars,” their uncannily realistic digital
Fridman. This noticeable leap from previous experiences. While this offers convenience the metaverse, they also open up broader doubles exhibited nuanced mannerisms and
cartoonish renditions drew significant public and customization, it raises questions about discussions about data ownership and por- conversations.
and investor interest by making broader who truly owns these digital identities. Your tability in virtual spaces.
As solutions like HeyGen’s AI-powered Avatar
metaverse goals appear more attainable. avatar, after all, is a form of data. Whether
Hyperrealistic Avatars Clones push fidelity even further, lines blur
Companies like Genies are further expanding it’s a visual approximation of you based on
between actual and simulated realities. While
the scope and utility of avatars by working uploaded photos or a purely imaginative cre- Hyperrealistic avatars leverage 3D graphics
constructive applications await in gaming, en-
on open, decentralized systems that let users ation, the avatar is shaped by your preferenc- and AI to produce nearly identical digital

DIGITAL IDENTITY
terprise metaverses, and beyond, deep ethical For marketers reliant on data analytics, such playing circumscribed roles on WhatsApp,
questions emerge around authentic digital compartmentalized self-representation Messenger, and Instagram. And deepfake
identity and behavior. Ultimately though, as poses challenges. When consumers have technology already allows for CGI actor sub-
avatar technology continues maturing to multiple discrete avatars, extracting useful stitutions in film or ads without a physically
deliver hyperrealism, it will profoundly trans- signals becomes far more complex. Which present cast. When Bruce Willis retired for
form how we represent ourselves and interact identity should companies target for person- health reasons, his likeness still appeared in
in online spaces. alized advertising? How to accurately track a Russian commercial via a deepfake gener-
preferences when individuals act differently ated by an AI company. To address this issue,
Fragmentation of Virtual Identity across contexts? Ultimately, the fracturing new contract language around “simulation
Without a standardized, universal avatar of singular legible identities into special- rights” is beginning to appear, allowing for
system, users on various digital platforms ized avatars requires businesses to funda- the legal use of an actor’s synthetic likeness
create multiple online personas, each rep- mentally rethink behavioral analysis and in future productions. The music industry
resenting distinct facets of the self or even personalization methodologies. As personas is also tapping into this trend; artists can
entirely fabricated alter-egos. This emerging multiply across the metaverse, understand- now create songs using an AI-generated
paradigm signals a seismic shift in concep- ing users grows increasingly nuanced. voiceprint of musician Grimes, splitting the
tualizations of identity in the digital era. We royalties with her if she approves the collab-
now face not just divergence between our Leasing identity oration. These early examples highlight the
physical and virtual selves but the fragmen- AI is enabling digital replications of celeb- emerging potential to monetize synthetic
tation of singular legible personalities across rities without their active participation or celebrity beyond entertainment—anyone
ever-proliferating online spheres. A glimpse of consent—an ethically murky development could perhaps license out digital persona
this reality already manifests professionally. as likeness rights remain undefined. The rights for conversational AI, branding deals,
An individual may use one avatar, precisely 2023 Hollywood writers’ strike spotlit con- or experiential metaverse content. But thorny
AI is enabling the creation of digital replicas of indi-
modeled after their real-world appearance, cerns around studios exploiting synthetic questions around likeness consent and fair viduals’ appearances and voices, opening avenues
for Microsoft Teams meetings. But the same acting indefinitely sans compensation. Meta compensation remain open, especially as for monetizing identities.
person could adopt a fanciful, anonymized recently launched celebrity chatbots like vir- technology blurs lines between virtual repli-
persona for recreational gaming universes. tual Paris Hilton and Snoop Dogg alter egos, cation and individual autonomy.

DIGITAL IDENTITY
Synthetic Speech banking has become more efficient and supplement to human influencers. In 2023,
Synthetic speech leverages AI to digitally affordable through AI, with some companies the Federal Trade Commission indicated that
mimic human voices, enabling myriad appli- only needing 50 sentences to create a digital virtual influencers must still disclose brand
cations from accessibility tools to creative voice. sponsorships like their human counterparts.
media. With enough training data, models As immersive spaces like the metaverse de-
Synthetic Personalities velop, AI-driven synthetic personas could en-
can precisely replicate the unique vocal sig-
nature of any individual. Startups like HeyGen Beyond mimicking existing personas, large able personalized interactive brand experi-
offer translation services that render person- language models (LLMs) can invent com- ences exceeding static posts. The technology
al video recordings into foreign languages, pletely synthetic yet persuasive media iden- remains nascent—but rapid improvements
while retaining the original speaker’s voice. tities from scratch. After ingesting enough in AI personality exhibition point toward
Meta is also developing real-time speech human data patterns, AI can reliably simu- virtual influencers, celebrities, and beyond
translation to break language barriers using late varied personality dimensions within materializing as bona fide social presenc-
natural voice cloning. And new models need text or embodied conversational agents. Re- es, engineered from data to serve economic
as few as 50 sentences to build vocal profiles, searchers deliberately shape these traits to aims over authentic self-expression.
making synthesis more efficient and accessi- craft AI virtual influencers—novel social me-
ble. Samsung demoed a feature for its Bixby dia personas like Lil Miquela, Noonoouri, and
assistant to verbally respond to calls in a Imma, each boasting 400,000+ Instagram
user’s synthesized voice if they are unable to followers. Instead of cloning celebrities, their
speak. Other applications of speech synthesis personalities and backstories emerge fully
include “voice banking,” where people at risk formed from algorithms to fulfill commercial
of losing their ability to speak due to disease roles. Brands like Coinbase, Maje, and Tiffany
can record samples that AI uses to synthe- & Co. have partnered with these AI-driven
Synthetic personalities are entirely artificial digital
size their voice. This allows them to preserve virtual influencers for endorsements and influencers and identities created by AI, not linked
their unique vocal identity for text-to-speech promotions. The control and presumed to any real human.
systems if they do need it later in life. Previ- brand safety offered by synthetic influenc-
ously expensive and time-consuming, voice ers makes them an attractive alternative or

APPLICATIONS

APPLICATIONS
Virtual Training for Real World Jobs across geography, VR promises scalable and domains from transportation to emergency arthritis, Crohn’s, and ulcerative colitis, health
Virtual reality enables immersive job training measurable skill-building superior to static response. Numerous metropoles worldwide care teams can leverage twins to run clinical
simulations across industries from retail to manuals or lectures. Trainees engage more have embarked on urban twin projects—from scenarios—predicting outcomes of adjusted
medicine, with measurable improvements in senses in contextualized scenarios, enabling Shanghai to Singapore to Chattanooga. The drug regimens to tailor optimal treatments.
information retention and role comprehen- organizations to elevate talent development. city of Chattanooga itself collaborates with The simulations also enable deeper study
sion. Companies like Walmart have incorpo- research institutions on specialized twins of biological drivers and responses in silico.
Industrial True-to-Reality Simulations and examining factors like energy-efficient mo- Medical twins diverge from simplistic avatars
rated VR into training as early as 2017, report-
Digital Twins
ing 5%-10% testing gains versus classical bility infrastructure and pedestrian-vehicle by encapsulating dynamic physical detail
training. Simulations run the gamut from True-to-reality digital twins are revolutioniz- intersection patterns to inform planning. beyond just identities. Researchers ultimately
customer scenarios like Black Friday to oping industries from autonomous vehicles to As cloud computing power scales, digital envision diagnostic, prognostic, and even two-
erational skills like spill cleanups. Maryland smart cities by enabling virtual testing and urban replicas grow increasingly high-fidel- way communication functions as integration
nonprofit Vehicles for Change likewise has optimization of complex real-world systems. ity to run simulations and extract insights with sensor data and AI intensifies.
trainees first pick up VR goggles instead of The University of Michigan developed a unfeasible in the real world. The technology
statistically accurate simulated roundabout However, as computing power expands, digital
physical tools to observe demonstrations and enables observers to holistically visualize,
to rigorously refine self-driving algorithms twins may mature beyond niche medical uses
practice procedures before touching actual quantify, and optimize the intricate orches-
without physical risk. BMW likewise models alone. More advanced systems could maintain
cars. Aviation leaders including Lufthansa tration of modern cities.
exact factory conditions in Nvidia’s Om- dynamic multifaceted models of individuals—
also apply extended reality across domains
niverse platform years before producing a Human Digital Twins incorporating both medical and psychological
from product design to flight crew certifica-
new car to optimize layouts and processes. factors to mimic personality, knowledge, and
tion. The technology provides a low-risk yet re- Research institutions are pioneering medi-
On a macroscale, digital urban twins facili- behaviors. Researchers envision such sophis-
alistic environment to build muscle memory cal digital twins—detailed physiological sim-
tate data-driven planning and governance. tication may eventually enable twins to serve
and mastery of complex tasks, from retail soft ulations of individual patients for person-
South Korean company Naver partnered with as persistent, autonomous virtual agents for
skills to technical maintenance procedures. alized care and quantitative analysis. These
Saudi Arabia to craft cloud-based digital their human counterparts. These highly faith-
Hands-on learning through lifelike simulation complex computational models incorporate
clones of Riyadh and other municipalities. ful digital doppelgängers could seamlessly
before real-world performance allows workers genetic, molecular, and environmental fac-
These foundations centralize infrastructure interact with people and other twins in virtual
to avoid consequences as they develop confi- tors to replicate disease mechanisms with
data to assist long-term development across spaces or the metaverse. They could collabo-
dence. With customizable training exportable high precision. In conditions like rheumatoid

APPLICATIONS
rate in ways impossible for remote humans, for symptom relief. Beyond exposure, the where students identify hazards and dis-
collectively analyzing problems through immersive medium also aids in develop- cuss observations with professors, allowing
continuous data sharing exceeding biological ing coping mechanisms. Recent studies, for more effective training than traditional
cognition limits. such as a pilot project by Stanford Medicine methods. However, while AI tutors in VR
researchers, have also started using VR to can provide tailored feedback like a human
Connected Well-being and VR Assisted address hoarding disorders. Study partici- instructor, human oversight is still needed.
Therapy
pants rehearsed giving up possessions in a A McGill University study found VR trainees
VR is increasingly being recognized as a pow- simulation of their own homes, an exercise with additional human instruction caused
erful tool in the field of psychological therapy that helped them practice organizational less tissue damage and were more precise
and mental health treatment. VR’s origins in and decision-making skills while also de- than those trained by AI tutoring alone. Plat-
mental health date back to 1997, when it was sensitizing them to the emotional distress forms like Fundamental Surgery additionally
first invested in for treating PTSD in military associated with discarding items. As soft- provide sophisticated haptic feedback for
populations. One major application is virtual ware and analytical dashboards improve, VR practicing complex manual tasks from pal-
reality exposure therapy (VRET): leveraging appears poised to mainstream into mental pating tissue to maneuvering instruments.
simulated environments to gradually con- health—blending digital solutions with clin- Its patented HapticVR technology accurately
front patients with anxiety disorders. VRET ical wisdom for more agile, quantified, and simulates the tactile sensations experienced
allows for a controlled and personalized personalized interventions. during surgery, from bone textures to muscle
intervention where patients can confront and and soft tissue interactions. FundamentalVR
become accustomed to the sources of their Medical Metaverse also recently launched its Fundamental Core
anxieties in a virtual setting. The treatment The metaverse enables transformative SDK, a toolkit empowering developers to
has proven to be as effective as traditional innovations in medical education and care create diverse medical training scenarios,
in-person exposure therapy for conditions like delivery via immersive simulation. Medical including multiuser VR experiences.
AR and VR are already utilized in surgical planning
specific phobia and agoraphobia with panic students can now perform virtual neurosur- and training, enabling surgeons and patients to
disorder. Interventions for post-traumatic Beyond training, AR and VR are being used
gery to improve their technical skills before preview expected outcomes. At least one hospital
stress disorder likewise show VR match- for patient care and surgical planning. In
operating on actual patients. The University has used AR headsets during complex surgeries to
ing traditional psychotherapy techniques Cambridge, England, medical students use
of Texas uses a VR “patient safety room” overlay patient data in real-time.

SCENARIOS
SCENARIO YEAR 2037
Exploring Mars with Man’s Best Friend

After strapping on the haptic suit and headset, I’m immersed in a stark reddish-orange alien landscape that can only be Mars. As I “step” forward, I feel the
crunch of strange soil beneath metal feet that are not my own. This body is an extension of mine—its sensors connected directly to my nervous system via a neu-
ral link system. When I lift my foot, the robot lifts its tread. When I reach out my hand, its claw extends. My consciousness inhabits this machine shell millions of
miles away, and I’m seeing Mars directly through my avatar’s camera eyes. Every sensation is mapped from its tactile sensors to my own synapses, blurred with
just enough latency to make the illusion complete. This robot is me, and through it I have stepped onto the surface of another world for the first time.
But what truly anchors me in this extraordinary experience is Moe, my dog. She’s not just lying next to me in the physical world; she’s also here with me on Mars,
in a way. When I adopted Moe, she came with something special: a digital twin. This isn’t a virtual pet; it’s a precise digital clone, created from detailed scans and
biometrics, designed to mimic every physical detail of Moe. Initially, these digital twins were meant for health monitoring, a technological advancement in pet
care. But soon, people realized their comforting potential in strange, digital realms. Here on Mars, as I navigate through vast, sweeping vistas, Moe’s digital twin
is right beside my avatar. As I explore, I occasionally reach down to pet the real Moe, feeling her warm fur, and then I see her digital doppelgänger reacting similar-
ly beside my avatar. It’s a bizarre yet heartwarming experience to have both versions of my best friend with me as I explore this alien world.
As night falls on Olympus Mons, I gaze out transfixed with my loyal dog clone by my side at a view no earthling has witnessed firsthand. Her presence, just like
the real Moe, comforts me—two versions of man’s best friend, one analog, one digital, both equally enthralled by this alien world we get to explore together.

APPLICATIONS
mixed reality headsets to train on “hologram interactive platforms like RoybiVerse and without restriction. This move clearly brings meetups while monetizing exclusive digital
patients,” while Swiss company Arbrea Labs Nanome reconstruct traditional models into focus the ongoing debate about public- content. As immersive media expands, ex-
employs AR and 3D simulation to allow both for more intuitive handling. Learners can ity rights, the legal concept that grants indi- isting regulations around reasonable com-
surgeons and patients to preview expected manipulate molecular structures with their viduals the right to control the commercial pensation, consent, and protections demand
outcomes of plastic surgeries, from nose jobs hands or traverse inside dinosaur anatomy. use of their name and likeness. modernization to address ethical dimensions
to breast augmentations. Surgeons at insti- By blending immersion with interactivity, VR related to identity replication via emerging
At the same time, examples of synthetic me-
tutions like Houston’s MD Anderson Cancer edtech unlocks multisensory comprehen- technologies.
dia featuring well-known actors are growing.
Center utilize AR headsets to overlay patient sion of abstract or ephemeral concepts at
For instance, James Earl Jones authorized Forensic AR / VR
data seamlessly during complex procedures— individual scale.
the use of his iconic Darth Vader voice so AI
establishing a new paradigm of in-situ surgi- AR and VR show great potential in advancing
Synthetic Media in Hollywood could generate it for future “Star Wars” films.
cal guidance. forensics. Sophisticated AR/VR crime scene
Companies like Metaphysic AI are employ-
The rise of synthetic media in Hollywood, ac- simulations facilitate analysis even when the
Education in the Metaverse ing de-aging technology, allowing stars like
celerated by advancements in AI, is bringing physical location remains inaccessible after
Harrison Ford, Tom Hanks, and Robin Wright
Research has indicated the efficacy of VR both opportunity and ethical dilemmas to the fact. Some systems use machine learning
to appear as younger versions of themselves
in enriching learning experiences. Recent the industry. The 2023 Screen Actors Guild and medical imaging to enhance AR-assisted
on screen. In 2022, after a 40-year hiatus,
findings suggest VR contributes to improved strike revolved around usage of talent like- autopsies, leading to more accurate victim
ABBA made a comeback with fresh music,
understanding, heightened attention spans, nesses without clear restrictions. Ironically, identification and determinations of cause
accompanied by their de-aged 3D avatars,
and inclusive access to digitized global cur- during the strikes, Meta and a company of death. A major advantage of AR/VR is the
known as ABBAtars. In 2023, Kiss bid fare-
riculum exceeding geographical constraints. called Realeyes capitalized on the abun- ability to visualize complex forensic data in
well to the stage at their final performance
Real-world implementations demonstrate dance of out-of-work actors by hiring them new ways. AR overlays digital information
in Madison Square Garden—only to reemerge
scalability too. Japan’s N and S high schools for an “emotion study” aimed at making directly onto physical crime scenes, allowing
minutes later as digital avatar versions of
immerse over 6,000 students in collaborative AI-generated avatars appear more human. for dynamic interaction like real-time tagging
themselves, suggesting virtual immortality
virtual classes using Meta Quest headsets. These actors signed away extensive rights of evidence and voice-recorded annotations. In
for these personas powered. Platforms like
Morehouse College’s VR chemistry labs yield “in perpetuity,” allowing their facial expres- the legal system, AR and VR are modernizing
Weverse give K-pop artists opportunities
higher average test scores than conventional sions and other characteristics to be used evidence presentation in courtrooms through
to directly engage followers through virtual
modalities. Beyond supplemental content, by Realeyes, Meta, and third parties almost 3D modeling and mapping to provide an

APPLICATIONS
immersive crime scene experience for judg- ibility of research findings. Agencies like the
es and jurors. This boosts understanding of Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
complex evidence sequences. These tech- are already leveraging the metaverse to
nologies also facilitate remote testimony for train scientists in various locations, allow-
improved accessibility. On the training side, ing them to engage in experiential learning
companies like CBF Forensics use realistic VR without the real-world risks. Moreover, the
simulations to deliver cost-effective forensic metaverse allows for the creation of entire-
skills training for law enforcement. While still ly new kinds of experimental spaces. For
emerging, AR and VR integration in forensics instance, scientists could utilize existing
promises to enhance remote capabilities, data and images to develop virtual models
evidence presentation, and training. of far-off places, such as Mars, and remotely
engage with these environments. Howev-
Metaverse-Enhanced Science er, realizing the metaverse’s full promise
The metaverse could significantly enhance requires surmounting adoption obstacles
the effectiveness and reach of science. Its around equipment costs and centralized
interactive, three-dimensional spaces pro- tech giant control.
vide opportunities for unprecedented levels
of collaboration and accessibility in research.
For example, digital replicas of physical labs
can enable scientists around the globe to get
together and discuss and advance projects,
bypassing geographic and logistical con-
straints. Experiments conducted in virtual
environments have the added benefit of being
precisely replicated, improving the reproduc- Digital lab replicas could allow scientists to collaborate and perform virtual experiments mirroring
real-world conditions, reducing costs and increasing accessibility to experimentation.

SCENARIOS
SCENARIO YEAR 2027
Experiential Equations
Daniel slips on a headset, eager to explore the immersive calculus simulator his teacher introduced in class. As the
virtual world loads, Daniel finds himself standing on an abstract grid landscape, with colorful curves undulating in all
directions. He reaches for a squiggly purple function in front of him, knowing that in this virtual world he can physical-
ly interact with the fundamental building blocks of mathematics.
“Today I want you to explore the concept of curvature,” the instructor’s voice emanates from the air. “Take this control-
ler and manipulate the curve in front of you. Get an intuition for how bending changes along the arc.” Daniel reaches
out and takes hold of the squiggly purple function. As he moves his hands, the curve reshapes itself like virtual taffy.
Daniel instantly understands the curve better than equations on paper could convey—he feels how tapered regions
have lower curvature than tight curls.
“Now, let’s step into a derivative’s shoes,” the instructor says. The world blinks, and Daniel’s perspective shrinks. He
has become the orange derivative denoting the curve’s slope! As he glides along the ripples of the function, Daniel
physically experiences each peak and valley in its slope and their full spatial relationship clicks intuitively. The im-
mersive manipulations unlocked conceptual knowledge allowing math to finally make sense. He had felt what those
cryptic formulas tried explaining: that curvature captures the rate of direction change. VR let Daniel enter into mathe-
matics, instead of just staring formulaically. Equations had become experience.

PSYCHOSOCIAL
DYNAMICS &
INCLUSIVITY IN
THE METAVERSE

PSYCHOSOCIAL DYNAMICS AND INCLUSIVITY IN THE METAVERSE

Situated VR VR focuses on syncing physical actions with interacting with someone wearing smart XR Accessibility
In the metaverse, the dissonance between virtual feedback, such as matching natural glasses, people may act differently when Accessibility XR is a growing area of focus,
virtual and real-world experiences often leads movement or object interactions, to create they experience a heightened sense of being aiming to ensure these immersive technolo-
to “experiential artifacts,” a phenomenon a more congruent reality. The approach also observed. This phenomenon is similar to the gies are inclusive for all users, including those
where VR users experience lingering senso- extends to social interactions, ensuring that observer effect in psychology, where indi- with disabilities. Key areas of accessibility
ry and cognitive effects that blur the lines the body language and emotional expres- viduals modify their behavior in response to in XR include sensory, physical, cognitive,
between these two realities. This issue arises sions in virtual environments mirror those their awareness of being watched. In social and universal design aspects. For example,
from the noncongruent realities that users in the real world. The goal is to establish a contexts, this can lead to increased self-con- Google’s ARCore improves environmental
encounter when transitioning between digital hybrid reality that is free from experiential sciousness, anxiety, and potentially altered understanding, crucial for users with visual
and physical spaces. Users may feel a surreal artifacts, prioritizing not just technologi- social dynamics. impairments. The design of XR interfaces is
detachment from their bodies or environ- cal innovation but also the psychosocial evolving to cater to diverse physical abilities,
The introduction of “trust lights” on some
ment, reporting feelings of disembodiment or well-being of users in the metaverse. incorporating features like voice commands
smart glasses, designed to indicate when re-
altered perceptions of the physical world after and eye tracking. Microsoft’s inclusive design
The Panopticon cording is taking place, attempts to mitigate
VR sessions. These experiential artifacts are approach in VR and AR, featuring voice recog-
this effect by providing a visual cue to others
a result of the complex interplay between our The psychological effects of being constantly nition and adaptable controller settings, ex-
about their privacy status. On the Ray-Ban
sensory inputs and past interactions with the filmed, particularly when interacting with emplifies this advancement. Similarly, many
Meta smart glasses for instance, the cam-
world, evolving as we are exposed to various individuals wearing smart glasses, can be companies now offer voiceover support in AR
era will not record if the LED light is covered.
contexts, including virtual environments. Rec- significant and multifaceted. Smart glasses, experiences, aiding visually impaired users
However, the effectiveness of these trust
ognizing the psychological impacts of these which may be always recording or perceived with audio descriptions. Cognitive accessibil-
lights in alleviating concerns about privacy
artifacts, which can range from mild curi- as such, introduce a dynamic similar to the ity is also a priority, particularly for users with
and constant surveillance is not clear-cut.
osity to disorientations affecting daily life. concept of a panopticon in social interac- conditions like autism, necessitating simpli-
While they might offer some reassurance,
Researchers at MIT have proposed “situated tions. The panopticon refers to a system of fied interfaces and controlled sensory inputs.
the underlying tension and psychological
virtual reality” as a solution. This concept, control where individuals are aware that Meta Quest demonstrates this by providing
impact of potential constant recording re-
currently under review for publication in IEEE, they might be watched at any time, leading customizable controls and head tracking op-
main.
aims to align the physical and virtual worlds, to self-regulation of behavior due to the tions for users with limited mobility.
minimizing experiential artifacts. Situated perception of constant surveillance. When

PSYCHOSOCIAL DYNAMICS AND INCLUSIVITY IN THE METAVERSE
Many efforts in the XR accessibility space are are “Unfear” and “Floreo,” which use technol- Cybersickness nausea-related symptoms, with joyful music
underpinned by the principles of universal de- ogy to create supportive spaces for individ- Motion sickness and nausea remain signifi- having a particularly significant impact on re-
sign, aiming to create XR experiences that are uals with ASD. Samsung’s Unfear is an app cant challenges in the mass adoption of vir- ducing the overall intensity of cybersickness.
inclusive and enjoyable for everyone, regard- that uses real-time selective noise filtering tual reality, both for consumer and industrial These research developments offer promising
less of their abilities. Leading this charge are to reduce auditory stress. It targets specific applications. One key issue is proprioception avenues for reducing barriers to VR adoption,
initiatives like the XR Association’s Accessi- sounds that are distressing to the user, of- disorientation, which arises when there’s potentially leading to more personalized and
bility Working Group and the XR Access Initia- fering a more relaxing and fear-free auditory a mismatch between where you perceive enjoyable virtual experiences for users.
tive, which bring together industry, academia, experience. Unfear also extends its function- your limbs to be and their actual spatial
and advocacy groups to research, develop, ality to digital content, like mobile games, fil- position in the virtual environment. Recent
and educate about accessible XR technol- tering out loud sounds to make such media research led by the University of Waterloo
ogies, ensuring that the immersive digital more accessible for those sensitive to audio sheds light on why some individuals are
world is open and welcoming to all. intensity. Though not an AR application per more susceptible to VR-induced “cybersick-
se, Unfear embodies principles that could be ness” than others. The study found that the
Diminished Sensory Overload integrated into AR platforms. Floreo, on the perception of vertical orientation could shift
People with autism spectrum disorder (ASD) other hand, directly utilizes AR to replicate after engaging in high-intensity VR experi-
often struggle to process sensory informa- real-life situations in a controlled, less over- ences. This sensory adjustment significantly
tion, finding stimuli like bright lights or loud whelming manner. It’s particularly beneficial influences the severity of cybersickness. The
noises particularly overwhelming. This senso- for teaching social, communicative, and findings could help VR developers create
ry sensitivity can turn routine activities into practical life skills in a secure environment. more comfortable and adaptable experi-
significant challenges. Augmented reality Floreo’s simulated interactions offer a prac- ences by understanding the relationship
presents a promising tool to mitigate these tice platform for users with autism, helping between sensory reweighting and cyber-
sensory integration issues. AR’s ability to cre- them develop skills transferable to everyday sickness susceptibility. In another study,
ate controlled and customized environments life. Both Unfear and Floreo exemplify how ad- researchers found that incorporating music
can gently introduce sensory inputs to those justing sensory inputs and offering flexible into VR experiences can mitigate symptoms
with ASD, allowing them to adapt at a comfort- learning environments can be revolutionary of cybersickness. Both joyful and calming
able pace. Among the innovations in this field for those with ASD. music were shown to reduce the intensity of

SCENARIOS
SCENARIO YEAR 2037
“Visiting” Pregnancy
Due to her age, Lauren was unable to safely carry her pregnancy herself. Instead, her daughter was growing in an artificial womb at a specialized facility. The high-
tech womb was calibrated to Lauren’s own heartbeat and voice via a monitor that she wore at all times, surrounding the growing baby with the familiar, comforting
sounds of its mother. The artificial amniotic fluid was even infused with Lauren’s natural scent through a filtering process.
Today, Lauren is preparing to “visit” her pregnancy. She dons a state-of-the-art haptic suit, designed to simulate the physical sensations of pregnancy. The suit gen-
tly expands around her abdomen, mimicking the gentle pressure and movements of a growing baby. As the virtual nursery flickers into view, Lauren gasps. It was a
line-for-line re-creation of the room her husband Eli was assembling at home, down to the plush rainbow rug and decaled quotes from her favorite children’s books.
As Lauren settles into the metaverse experience, the suit adjusts snugly around her midsection, gently applying pressure to simulate the swell of pregnancy. She
runs her hands along the warm, taut skin, marveling at how real it feels. Lauren feels a sudden thump and lays her hand on her belly. Her daughter is kicking up a
storm today.
The haptic suit is just one part of the experience. The headset she wears is pivotal, not just visually, but also in altering Lauren’s sense of smell to mirror the acute
olfactory sensitivity typical in pregnancy. Scents are intensified, creating a vivid and authentic sensory experience. Furthermore, the headset induces psychologi-
cal states akin to those of pregnancy, fostering a deep emotional bond between Lauren and her unborn child.
As Lauren walks through this virtual world, she speaks softly, knowing that her baby, though miles away in its artificial womb, can hear her. She sings lullabies,
tells stories, and shares her hopes and dreams for their future together. Each word, each note of her song, is transmitted back to the womb, enveloping her baby in
a warm embrace of mother’s love.

EXPERIENCING
IMMERSIVE
WORLDS

EXPERIENCING IMMERSIVE WORLDS

World Building on Blockchain While the idealized vision of the metaverse to feelings of solitude, the complexity of AR Lenses and Filters
Advocates of the metaverse and blockchain and blockchain both emphasize decentral- navigation, and a deficiency in compelling AR lenses overlay real-time digital informa-
share a core principle: decentralization. In ization, it’s worth noting that many plat- content—revealing a stark contrast between tion onto the physical world. Simple AR filters
the metaverse, this manifests as an open forms, like Meta’s proposed metaverse, may the high ambitions of brands and the actual and lenses have long been a staple of social
network of interconnected virtual worlds as operate as closed ecosystems. user experience. The concept of a metaverse media, enabling users to add digital enhance-
opposed to closed, proprietary platforms. festival has also been embraced by Coachel- ments to their faces in real time. But these
Events in the Metaverse la 2023, in partnership with “Fortnite.” This
Some advocates argue that when built on playful features are just the beginning; AR
blockchain, the metaverse can offer true The metaverse shows promise as the next collaboration introduced a new dimension to technology is becoming more sophisticat-
digital ownership through NFTs, by allowing frontier for virtual experiences by creat- music festivals, combining iconic Coachella ed by leveraging generative AI. Snapchat’s
users to own, trade, and monetize virtual ing immersive 3D environments mirroring elements with the interactive and boundless Cosmic Lens feature is a case in point, for
assets like land and avatars. Blockchain’s real-world settings. Gaming, an early adopt- nature of the “Fortnite” universe. Weverse using generative AI to transform the user’s
transparent and immutable record-keeping er of shared digital spaces, has expanded has become a central hub for virtual K-pop environment into an animated cosmic back-
lends credibility to digital ownership claims, its virtual horizons beyond gameplay into events, where fans can engage with their drop. Filters like TikTok’s “Bold Glamour” echo
while its interoperability allows assets and events and social interactions. Games like favorite idols’ avatars in a digital concert this trend, offering hyperrealistic effects with
user profiles to carry seamlessly across “Roblox” and “Fortnite” have been pioneers, setting. This virtual space not only hosts the help of AI. Furthering the integration of AR
metaverse environments. Examples like The transforming their platforms into concert concerts but also fosters fan interactions, into daily life, Snapchat is now streamlining
Sandbox demonstrate this in practice—users venues for top-tier artists, creating a new proving that the metaverse can indeed the user experience by introducing intelli-
can build, own, and sell their game creations paradigm for live performances. In 2023, re-create the vibrancy of live events in a gent recommendations for lenses based on
through a dynamic, collective ecosystem. Decentraland hosted its second Metaverse digital format. As these digital spaces evolve, environmental context—such as the weather
Other platforms like Hyperfy and Voxels, both Fashion Week, featuring over 60 fashion the focus must shift toward user experience or the time of day—using advanced visual
running on the Ethereum blockchain, provide brands, including heavyweights like Balen- to ensure the metaverse can fully realize its recognition and API integration. Snap has also
tools for users to design, construct, and trade ciaga, Adidas, and Coach. While this event potential as a platform for communal and announced plans to introduce AR mirrors in
entire worlds they own. This fusion of block- showcased the allure and possibilities interactive events. Converting isolated soli- retail stores, allowing customers to see how
chain and the metaverse not only democra- within the metaverse, it also cast light on its tary activities into bonded social occasions clothes would look on them in Nike stores and
tizes virtual space but also enables a more current developmental infancy, evidenced remains contingent on platform maturation. in Men’s Wearhouse locations without the
trustworthy and interconnected digital reality. by the participant feedback that spoke

need to change outfits. This effort is part of a fusion of holograms with deepfake technol- ARHT Media has also introduced Capsule,
broader move to integrate AR technology into ogy and synthetic media is paving the way a versatile holographic display designed
the physical world, including at music festi- for their use in everyday settings. Already, to shine in any lighting condition, perfect
vals and even in vending machines. Brands holography has enabled the creation of vir- for captivating audiences in cinema lob-
like Ikea are also leveraging filters to enhance tual concerts featuring past celebrities, and bies. This technology allows live hologram
the customer’s shopping journey at home. it holds the potential for production compa- presenters to interact with people across
Using smartphones’ lidar sensors, Ikea’s AR nies to bring popular synthetic characters distances, and it can showcase prerecorded
tools allow customers to replace their exist- and celebrities into our physical world as content that engages viewers through inter-
ing furniture with detailed 3D models of new interactive entities. For instance, Ukrainian active touchscreens. The potential applica-
items. Similarly, retail giants Walmart and President Volodymyr Zelenskyy harnessed tions are vast, ranging from advertising and
Amazon have successfully adopted AR to en- this technology for remote addresses across immersive trailers to live talent meet-and-
able customers to visualize products in their European cities using Canadian firm ARHT greets and product demonstrations. In the
own space before making a purchase, wheth- Media’s state-of-the-art holographic tech- pursuit of more lifelike holographic projec-
er it’s placing furniture or trying on glasses. nology, speaking from within his country tions, researchers have developed three-di-
amid conflict. The Hologram Zoo in Brisbane, mensional scattering-assisted dynamic
Holograms Australia, presents a new way for people to holography (3D-SDH), which greatly enhanc-
Holography is a technique that records and experience wildlife. Here, holograms cre- es the depth resolution of 3D images. This
displays objects in three dimensions, mak- ate lifelike depictions of animals, such as cutting-edge method could revolutionize
ing them either stand still or move just like a herd of elephants charging toward and how we interact with virtual environments by
real objects. It’s more than just a 3D picture; then seemingly through the spectators. This offering a much richer, more detailed expe-
it can show every detail of a person’s face attraction makes holographic technology rience.
or body in motion. This capability is becom- more accessible by significantly reducing
Metaverse real estate offers long-term prospects for
ing increasingly important for the future of costs, thus avoiding the ethical dilemmas Real Estate in the Metaverse
virtual land as spaces for community, commerce,
augmented reality and virtual reality, partic- of captive wildlife exhibits and offering an Real estate in the metaverse is emerging as and creativity, free from physical limitations.
ularly as we look to populate the metaverse immersive educational experience. a new digital frontier where people can buy,
with realistic avatars and environments. The develop, and experience virtual land and

properties. Though still nascent, metaverse architectural angles and dreamlike floating gible prototype that exemplifies the vision Worlds for the Enterprise
real estate is drawing interest from individual spheres. Mirroring real world tactics, tradi- of a global community coming together in Major tech companies are racing to make
investors, corporations, and even real world tional home builders like KB Home have also a digital realm. The village is structured to virtual collaboration a reality for enterprises.
real estate companies. In metaverses like established presences to showcase model facilitate impactful interactions, with areas Microsoft is integrating Mesh directly into
The Sandbox and Decentraland, virtual land homes. They aim to reach new demograph- such as a Virtual Congress Centre akin to a Teams to allow coworkers to join 3D meetings
is sold as NFTs on blockchain. Parcels near ics and drum up interest in real-life offer- digital town hall for hosting various future as avatars, sans VR headset. This aligns Mesh
popular virtual spaces or owned by celebrities ings. While speculative now, advocates see meetings and sessions. It also compris- with Microsoft’s everyday work tools after an
can sell for hundreds of thousands of dollars long-term potential for virtual real estate as es immersive collaborative centers that initial failed launch as a standalone develop-
or more. The overall metaverse real estate immersive spaces for community building, serve as hubs for engaging storytelling and er platform. Mesh now focuses on enabling
market is estimated to be worth over $1 bil- commerce, and creativity. The metaverse spreading the Forum’s insights on critical Teams’ 320 million users to have more engag-
lion. Corporations like Adidas and Atari, and provides freedom from physical constraints issues, fostering a collaborative spirit aimed ing meetings using spatial audio, simulated
celebrities like Snoop Dogg have purchased to create imaginative environments. at real-world change. Partners of the Forum environments like a virtual lake house, and
virtual land to host branded experiences, dig- have the opportunity to carve out their vir- AI features like virtual whiteboards. Microsoft
ital HQs, stores, and spaces. One buyer paid Worlds for Purpose tual campuses, allowing them to rally their is betting its massive user base will propel
$450,000 to become Snoop’s neighbor in the The metaverse is being harnessed for signifi- stakeholders and drive forward initiatives to adoption despite strong startup competitors
virtual world. cant causes, transcending beyond a mere solve worldwide problems. Simultaneously, like Jugo and Frame also offering immersive
digital escape into a platform for meaningful The Sandbox’s Wistaverse has emerged as a meeting solutions. Jugo similarly provides
Some companies are taking it further by pioneering virtual protest platform, offering
global action. The World Economic Forum 3D collaboration spaces for remote teams to
developing conceptual virtual homes and a secure space for worldwide activism and
has taken a pioneering step by introduc- brainstorm ideas on virtual whiteboards or
structures with architectural firms. Every- education. Its goal is to empower users to
ing the Global Collaboration Village in the conduct meetings as customizable avatars.
realm, a metaverse technology and infra- engage in nonviolent protest and discourse,
metaverse, a collaborative effort with Ac- Frame uses volumetric video to generate
structure company, has partnered with removing the risks associated with physical
centure and Microsoft. This virtual space photorealistic avatars, targeting enterprises
artists like Misha Kahn and Daniel Arsham gatherings.
is dedicated to convening organizations seeking hyperrealism. These companies aim
to create an imaginative collection of digital
to address, brainstorm, and act on global to make remote collaboration more natural by
homes called The Row. These futuristic virtual
crises. It was revealed during the Annual simulating the nuances of in-person interac-
abodes feature melting, Salvador Dali-esque
Meeting 2023 in Davos, showcasing a tan- tions. Though still early, some companies are

piloting these technologies to enable hybrid land and earn rewards through daily activi-
teams to work together more intuitively. Mic- ties and can use their NFTs to decorate their
rosoft’s integration into Teams gives it a dis- virtual space. The well-known game “Mine-
tribution advantage, but the space remains craft” is also considered a virtual economy,
competitive as startups offer differentiated allowing players to trade items, and this
features around customization and realism. concept of in-game value is amplified in the
metaverse.
Play-to-Earn and Virtual Marketplaces
Marketplaces like OpenSea act as trad-
Play-to-earn games fuse gaming and econom-
ing hubs for these virtual goods, allowing
ics in metaverse environments by enabling
the digital assets from various metaverse
players to generate real-world value through
games to be bought and sold, underpin-
virtual gameplay. Leveraging blockchain
ning the economic potential of play-to-earn
technology, these games establish in-game
games. Exponential growth potential looms
assets like fantasy creatures or virtual land
as financial institutions like JPMorgan
as tradable NFT commodities. This diverges
strategically support metaverse transaction
from traditional in-game items, where items
platforms like Tilia. Seamless fiat curren-
lack external utility or ownership portability
cy interchangeability can further expand
after usage. Instead, metaverse games facili-
adoption and capital inflow. Just as physical
tate exchange of digital goods for cryptocur-
economies rely on agreeing on currency, unit
rency or fiat money. “Axie Infinity’’ is a pioneer
of account, and other standards, maturing
in this space, where players breed, raise, and
these fundamentals will shape the trajectory
battle fantasy creatures called Axies, with in-
of blockchain-based virtual marketplaces.
game transactions involving Ethereum-based
The fusion of play and profitability through
cryptocurrencies. “My Neighbor Alice’” also
ownership of digital goods represents merely
offers a blockchain twist to casual farming Players can earn real-world value in virtual environments through gameplay, with blockchain allowing for
the first stage.
simulators, where players can buy virtual the acquisition and trading of digital assets such as NFTs.

SCENARIOS
SCENARIO YEAR 2027
Cosplay Category Announcement

Welcome to the 2027 Super Cosplay Con—the world’s premier cosplay convention where physical reality converges
with the virtual multiverse. This year’s Super Cosplay Con is enabled by augmented reality glasses that project 3D
avatars and effects, blurring the lines between the real and virtual worlds. The costume contest categories reflect the
multifaceted experiences of Super Cosplay Con attendees.
The Digital Division honors stunning costumes crafted entirely from interoperable assets across different metaverses.
Contestants proudly display their creativity in mixing and matching skins, accessories, and effects from platforms
like Cryptoverse, Mara, and VRealms.
The Physical Division shines the spotlight on traditional handcrafted costumes made with real-world materials. Cos-
players spent months bringing elaborate costumes to life with fabric, foam, paint, and painstaking detail. Their devo-
tion to practical craftsmanship is on full display.
The Mixed Reality Division highlights the best blended costumes—real-world apparel taken to the next level through
digital avatars and AR enhancements viewable through attendees’ smart glasses. A knight’s armor appears charred
from virtual dragon fire, while a wizard’s cloak billows from fabricated wind.
Hope to see you at Super Cosplay Con!

METAVERSE
INFRASTRUCTURE

METAVERSE INFRASTRUCTURE
Interoperability individual platform silos. However, the forth- and Information Technology (MIIT) is looking Developer Tools and Application Building
Blocks
Interoperability is fundamental for the envi- coming challenge lies in interlinking these to set standards for the metaverse industry,
sioned metaverse: Akin to the universal stan- silos themselves. This necessity will grow which they see as crucial for promoting a The creation of the metaverse is driven by a
dards of today’s internet, it would allow seam- more pronounced as enterprise applications healthy and orderly market development. diverse array of developer tools, many of which
less data exchange and interaction across converge and as the demand for cross-plat- China’s stance is to address the challenges are open source to align with the metaverse’s
various systems and technologies. This func- form 3D assets increases. in the metaverse sector—such as the lack principles of inclusivity and community-driv-
tionality is essential to enable asset transfer of clear definitions that can lead to market en development. This democratic approach to
Government Investment speculation—by providing standardization building virtual spaces is crucial, as it allows
and identity management across diverse dig-
ital and physical spaces, and its importance Government investment in the metaverse and guidance. South Korea has also made for a metaverse that is crafted by its users,
is highlighted in the World Economic Forum’s is emerging as a key strategy for foster- significant strides by investing 24 billion rather than solely by large corporations. This
2023 briefing paper, “Interoperability in the ing economic growth and innovation, with Korean won ($18.1 million) in a fund dedicat- method of construction by a passionate user
Metaverse.” As companies advance in inte- several nations recognizing the potential of ed to metaverse initiatives, recognizing the base contributes to the metaverse’s unique
grating within their platform silos, the chal- this digital space. By supporting metaverse difficulties local companies face in securing and innovative nature. A prime example is
lenge shifts to connecting these silos to meet infrastructure, governments aim to create private investments due to the risks as- the “Roblox” platform where a majority of
the growing demands for cross-platform 3D new jobs, attract businesses, and enhance sociated with emerging technologies. The creators are under 18 years old. These young
assets. Facilitating this effort, the Metaverse the lives of their citizens. Dubai’s Metaverse government’s support extends to helping developers use Roblox Studio to craft their
Standards Forum, formally incorporated in Strategy is a prime example, where the with mergers and acquisitions and ensur- own games, employing Luau—a version of
April 2023, brings together a consortium of city plans to become a global hub for the ing domestic firms can compete on a global the programming language Lua. The plat-
organizations to foster interoperability, not blockchain and metaverse sectors by 2030. scale. In a tangible demonstration of their form facilitates creativity and entrepreneur-
by creating standards themselves but by This strategy aims to support over 40,000 commitment, Seoul launched a digital twin ship, allowing these young creators to earn
producing technical reports, best practices, virtual jobs and increase the number of in the metaverse with a substantial govern- through game passes and microtransactions,
and guidelines. This collaboration is crucial blockchain companies fivefold, as part of ment investment, underscoring the impor- a testament to the economic potential within
for developing the necessary standards to the UAE’s broader vision to create one of the tance of the metaverse in urban and social the metaverse. Tools like the Ethereal Engine
build a cohesive and functional metaverse. smartest cities worldwide. Similarly, China development. (XREngine) support this creative explosion,
Businesses have made significant progress is focusing on the metaverse as part of its offering open-source capabilities for crafting
in integrating various elements within their technology strategy. The Ministry of Industry immersive and interactive 3D experiences.

METAVERSE INFRASTRUCTURE
Platforms like Webaverse extend the creative sion and averting problems such as motion mand high bandwidth and reliable networks
frontier further into decentralization, allowing sickness. To address this challenge, re- to process and transmit extensive visual
developers to build and interact with dApps searchers from MIT and Microsoft developed data for immersive experiences. The roll-
within the metaverse. What’s unique about the Ekho system, which synchronizes audio out of 5G by major US carriers like AT&T,
the metaverse developer tools is how they streams across different devices. The system Verizon, T-Mobile, and Dish Network is a
empower builders, many of whom are young works by embedding subtle white noise game-changer, offering up to 10 times the
and passionate users, to take ownership of sequences into the audio stream sent from bandwidth of 4G, with speeds up to 10 giga-
their creations. This participatory culture is the cloud server, which are then picked up bits per second, lower latency, and greater
fueling the metaverse’s growth into a rich, by the audio sensors in the player’s control- reliability. These features are key to avoiding
vibrant digital ecosystem where innovation is ler or other devices. Ekho’s core mechanism disruptions in the metaverse, ensuring a
constant and opportunities are vast. involves continuously monitoring the time seamless alternate reality experience. China,
lag between the sent and received audio as an early adopter and implementer of 5G,
Interdevice Synchronization streams through these white noise markers. exemplifies the impact of this technology on
Interdevice synchronization is a vital com- When a delay is detected, Ekho promptly the development of virtual and augmented
ponent in constructing the infrastructure of adjusts the timing, aligning the streams to reality applications. With a large user base
the metaverse, as it guarantees a unified and achieve near-perfect synchronization. This in VR and AR, China is quickly becoming a
real-time interaction across various devices advancement by MIT and Microsoft research- leading market in this field. The symbiotic
in AR and VR settings. This has been a signifi- ers marks a significant leap forward in relationship between 5G and the metaverse
cant hurdle to overcome. In environments like enhancing the overall quality and realism of is evident here; the metaverse benefits from
online gaming and virtual workspaces, where virtual experiences in the burgeoning field of 5G’s widespread access, reliable connectiv-
multiple users engage in a shared virtual the metaverse. ity, and the ability for XR devices to offload
space, synchronization is key to ensuring processing to the edge of the network. This
For a seamless metaverse with low latency, it de-
a smooth and coherent experience for all 5G for the Metaverse mutual enhancement, evidenced in China’s pends on network connectivity, making 5G a crucial
participants. It is also crucial for accurately The advancement of 5G technology is rapid growth in VR, is paving the way for enabling technology.
replicating user movements within the virtual required for the metaverse to reach its full more comprehensive and globally accessible
realm, thereby enhancing the sense of immer- potential, as metaverse applications de- metaverse experiences.

AUTHORS &
CONTRIBUTORS

SAM JORDAN Chief Executive Officer

Manager AMY WEBB
Sam Jordan is a Manager at Future Today Institute. She leads our Advanced Comput- Managing Director
ing practice area, which includes technology, artificial intelligence, virtual realities, MELANIE SUBIN
lead, where she enables organizations to navigate through uncertainty with inno- Creative Director
vative strategies. With a proven track record across various sectors, Sam’s visionary EMILY CAUFIELD
Editor
Before joining FTI, Sam was the CEO and co-founder of TrovBase, a secure data discovery and analysis-sharing plat- ERICA PETERSON
its current focus. In parallel, Sam engaged with the open science community, advocating for better data management Copy Editor
practices to address challenges in scientific replication. Previously, she worked for IBM, where she helped large enter- SARAH JOHNSON
CHERYL COONEY

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BIOENGINEERING
TECH BIOENGINEERING
TABLE OF CONTENTS
259 Top Headlines 273 Text-to-Synthetic Compound: 282 Using the Human Genome Map 289 Biocomputing and 296 Durable Biofilms
LLMs Automate Chemistry Cyberbiosecurity 297 Cultured Food & Drinks and
260 State of Play 282 Unlocking Bioinformatics Data
273 AI-Generated Proteins 290 Organoid Intelligence Next-Gen Agriculture
261 Key Events 283 Sequencing Ancient Genomes
274 Generative Biology 290 Training Biocomputers to 298 Lab-Grown Meat Is Going
262 Likely Near Term 283 Programmable Gene Editing Learn New Skills Mainstream
Developments 274 Simulating Molecular Proteins
Interactions 290 Biological Circuits 298 Synthetic Milk and Cheese
263 Why Bioengineering Trends 284 Bioprinting, Organoids, and
Matter to Your Organization 274 Spatial Biology Improves Novel Organisms 290 Programmable DNA Machines 298 Precision Fermentation
with AI 299 Brewing Great Nonalcoholic
264 When Will Bioengineering 285 Bioprinting Electronics 291 Using DNA to Store Data
Trends Impact Your 276 Gene Editing & CRISPR Beers
285 Bioprinting and Tissue 292 Biological Robots
Organization? 277 CRISPR Treatment for Diseases 299 Upgrading Photosynthesis
Engineering
292 Living Sensors
266 Opportunities and Threats
277 Next-Generation Gene Editors 285 Fabricating Organoids 300 Faster Flowering
293 Cyberbiosecurity
267 Investments and Actions
278 New Editing Tools 286 Growing Organoids to Study 300 A Return to Natural Farming—
To Consider 294 New Materials
Long COVID With Technology
279 In Vivo Gene Editing
268 Central Themes 295 AI-Created New Materials
286 Organ-on-a-Chip 300 Regenerative Agriculture
279 Cell Therapy 2.0
269 Ones To Watch 295 Modifying Fungi for Building
287 3D Printed Drugs 300 A New Wave of Genetically
280 Reading and Sequencing and Packaging
270 Important Terms Modified Foods
Genomes 287 Bacterial Nanosyringes 295 Mycelium Leathers
272 AI and Biology 301 CRISPR Animals
281 Next-Generation Genome 287 Using Viruses to Deliver Big 296 Biomolecule-Based Packaging
273 Pharmaceutical Companies Sequencing DNA Payloads 301 Genetically Engineered Space
Invest in AI 296 Intelligent and Active Farming
281 Metagenomics 288 Minimum Viable Lifeforms Packaging 302 Aging, Health, and Beauty
273 Generative AI Gains Wide
Acceptance 281 Faster Gene Synthesis
296 Biodegradable and Edible 303 Cultivated Collagen
282 Quantum Biology Packaging

TECH BIOENGINEERING
TABLE OF CONTENTS
303 Growing Blood 310 Engineering Plants for Carbon 317 Posthumous Sperm Retrieval
303 Growing Sex Cells Capture 317 Gene Editing Ethics
303 Human Trials of Synthetic 310 Greening Fashion 318 Engineering Super Soldiers
Wombs 311 De-Extincting Lost Species 319 Authors
304 Universal Cancer Vaccines 311 Rewilding Barren Terrains 321 Selected Sources
304 Upgrading Embryos 311 CRISPR Mosquitoes
Before Birth
312 Reviving Ancient Viruses
305 Genetic Screening
for Pregnancy 313 Regulation and Policy
305 Biobank Releases 314 Regulatory Changes Toward

Genome-Edited Crops
306 Microbiome Metrics at Home
314 Regulating DNA Recognition
306 Age Reversal Systems
306 Removing Zombie Cells 314 Safeguarding Genetic Privacy
306 Skin Care and Beauty 315 Defining Parenthood
307 Improving Gut Biomes 315 National DNA Drives
307 Optimizing Recreational Drugs 315 International Collaborations to
308 Climate and Sustainability Advance Bioengineering
316 Ethics, Trust and Acceptance
309 eDNA Detection
317 Resolving Bias in Genome
309 Using CRISPR for Sustainable
Research
Wood Production
317 Ethics in Indigenous Genomics
309 Better Plastics Recycling

TECH BIOENGINEERING
TOP HEADLINES 01 Lab-Grown Meat Is Going Mainstream

Cultivated meat and synthetic dairy are emerging as sustainable and ethical alternatives
to traditional animal products, and in 2024 production will start to scale.
AI breakthroughs are
set to make this year a 02 CRISPR Will Treat Disease
US and UK regulators have approved the first CRISPR therapy, marking a significant
turning point for biotech, step in gene editing’s potential to cure genetic diseases.
CRISPR, and synthetic

biology. 03 Millions of New Materials Discovered
A new AI system from Google DeepMind predicted 2.2 million novel materials, signaling
big changes ahead for batteries, computer chips, and more.
04 AI Transforms Biology Today; Biology Powers Computers Tomorrow

Scientists created organoid intelligence, a new biocomputing field using brain cells for
AI, promising major efficiency gains over traditional computer systems.
05 We Aren’t Prepared for a Cyber-Bio Attack

Cyberbiosecurity has emerged as a crucial unmet need at the intersection of AI and
life sciences, with no formal oversight yet established.

TECH BIOENGINEERING
STATE In the past year, AI breakthroughs have accelerated the convergence of

biology, information systems, and advanced platforms, with the potential
OF PLAY
to fundamentally transform businesses and societies. While today, our
focus is on generative AI, very soon that focus will shift to generative bi-
ology: Here, AI models will decipher the complexities of biology, leading to
the creation of novel molecules, drugs, materials, consumables, and living
organisms.
Our orientation to biology and the living world will change in the near
future as CRISPR products, in the form of novel drug therapies and new
Brace yourself for uncharted foods, enter the market. Soon, we will no longer be constrained by existing
impacts. This could be materials to manufacture batteries, clothing, or buildings.
a breakthrough year for Lab-grown beef, chicken, and fish will scale, making it possible to con-
sume meat without slaughter. Through cellular reprogramming, we could
biotechnology.
start to reverse the aging process. And we’re on the brink of new fertility
treatments that will challenge our ideas about parenthood.
These shifts will fundamentally alter our relationship with biology and the
natural world, but we lack comprehensive policies to navigate them. While
biotech promises to reshape our world, it also presents unprecedented
risks, underscoring the need for preparedness and governance.

TECH BIOENGINEERING
KEY EVENTS
JUNE 13, 2023 DECEMBER 8, 2023 F E B R U A RY 6 , 2 0 2 4
Pushing Limits of Embryo Models FDA OKs Gene Therapy for Sickle Cell GMO Seeds Sold Direct to Consumers
Israeli, UK, and Chinese research teams Casgevy becomes the first approved The FDA gives purple tomatoes, genetically
advance embryo models beyond legal commercial gene-editing treatment enhanced to be more nutrient-dense,
limits, prompting ethical debates. using CRISPR technology. approval for home gardening.
N OV E M B E R 2 9, 2 0 2 3 J A N U A RY 1 8 , 2 0 2 4
AI Unlocks New Material Secrets Universal Cancer Vaccine Trials

Google DeepMind’s AI predicted structures of Cancer patients in the UK receive
over 2 million potential new materials, potentially the first dose of a new mRNA
enhancing technologies like batteries, solar therapy designed to help the body
panels, and chips. Scientists could create around recognize and fight cancer cells.
400,000 of these materials in labs soon.

TECH BIOENGINEERING

RAPID ACCELERATION CRISPR’s Emerging Economic Impact Life Extension Backlash Supply Chain Disruption
The rapid integration of artificial intelli- The size of the global market for CRISPR Life extension breakthroughs promise longer In the next year, new materials poised to im-
gence into bioengineering is catalyzing technologies and their associated products is lives for some, yet they will strain social ser- prove shipping’s environmental footprint may
unprecedented innovation. The near projected to exceed $4 billion by mid-decade. vices, pensions, and other support systems disrupt traditional supply and cold chain op-
future will see significant changes to In the US alone, CRISPR could contribute $19 for the elderly, challenging our preparedness erations dependent on outdated tech, posing
traditional industries such as meat, dairy, billion to GDP by 2032. for an aging population. significant threats to established companies.
textiles, and pharmaceuticals, while
advancements should pave the way for
sustainable solutions in carbon capture,
GMO Misinformation Regulatory Pressures Stark Health Divide
plastics recycling, and biodiversity en-
hancement. Near-term breakthroughs in A new GMO backlash looms as public mis- Federal Trade Commission actions spark Biotech will revolutionize health care with
healthcare will lead to cataclysmic, long- information persists, with many unaware fears of stifled innovation due to limits on novel drug therapies, yet their inaccessibility
that the latest GMOs aim to boost produce scaling therapies via acquisitions, while the to developing economies risks creating a
term disruption. Leaders should deepen
and grains with enhanced nutrients, not just US Inflation Reduction Act ushers in a harsh- stark health divide, exacerbating global
their understanding of bioengineering’s modify them for convenience or yield. er pricing climate, impacting the biopharma health inequalities.
vast potential and associated risks, en- industry’s future reimbursement strategies
abling them to spearhead innovation in for innovations.
products and services, streamline pro-
cesses, improve materials, and achieve 11 MACRO SOURCES OF DISRUPTION
cost efficiencies. This convergence also
opens up new avenues for collaboration,
allowing companies to explore untapped
markets and forge strategic partnerships
that can drive forward their competitive Technology Media & Demographics Environment Government Public Health Education Geopolitics Infrastructure Economy Wealth
edge.

TECH BIOENGINEERING
WHY BIOTECHNOLOGY TRENDS MATTER TO YOUR ORGANIZATION
Biotech Is a General Biotech Will Change Advancements Should AI-Bio Convergence Disruption Is on Your Businesses Need
Purpose Technology Your Value Network Result in Optionality Requires New Strategy Near-Term Horizon New Policies
As a modern “general Biotech advancements Advancements in The convergence of Near-term disruptions In response to
purpose technology,” will transform the value synthetic biology, AI and biology will in the traditional bioengineering advances,
bioengineering has the network for businesses. CRISPR, AI, and impact every business. meat, dairy, textile, businesses must develop
potential to influence Without active engineering are opening Leaders will need a and pharmaceutical policies that embody
an entire economy and monitoring, disruptors up new opportunities better understanding of industries are imminent, their values, ethics, and
alter society through may emerge, threatening across health care, bioengineering’s potential with advancements culture, such as the use
political, economic, and established companies’ pharmaceuticals, and risks, so they can offering new options of genetically enhanced
social structures. By capacity to create value agriculture, food and innovate products for carbon capture, ingredients, insurance
2030, most people in and maintain their beverage, beauty, and services, develop plastics recycling, and coverage for novel genetic
developed economies will competitive edge for chemicals, sustainability, processes, enhance enhancing biodiversity, therapies, whether and
have used or consumed market share, investment, energy, and materials materials, reduce costs, signaling a pivotal how to promote genetic
a product created and talent. production. and seek out new partners shift in environmental privacy, and more.
with a bioengineering and customers. management.
technology.

TECH BIOENGINEERING
WHEN WILL BIOTECHNOLOGY DISRUPT YOUR ORGANIZATION?
Medical Devices CO2 Capture Farming Oil/Petroleum Sector Computing
Vaccines Ranching Electricity Life Extension
OTC Medications Health Diagnostics Aerospace Off-Planet Exploration
Poultry Farming Recycling Cold Chains
Defense Chemicals Living Materials
Beauty Fast Fashion
Drug Development Consumer Packaged Goods
Textiles Construction & Building Materials
Luxury Fashion Paints & Coatings
Data Storage
Grain
Automotive

TECH BIOENGINEERING
WHEN WILL BIOTECHNOLOGY DISRUPT YOUR ORGANIZATION?
Advancements in bioengineering Scaling Regulations R&D developments

While the pace of innovation is fast across The pace of technology advancement typi- The pace of new research breakthroughs can’t
will disrupt every industry, to some
the spectrum of technologies, it takes time cally far exceeds any changes to regulation. be scheduled to coincide with a board meet-
degree, within the next two decades. for a promising new biotech development to Bioengineering is unique in that regulation ing or earnings report. There are factors that
The Future Today Institute categorizes scale beyond the lab. Scaling requires disci- exists, but products and processes are treat- can improve the likelihood and speed of new
bioengineering as a “general purpose pline, patience, effort, and time. ed differently in every country. Regulatory discoveries (funding, quality and size of staff,
technology.” Like the steam engine and policy uncertainty could accelerate or access to resources). We closely monitor R&D
Costs stifle growth. developments but treat them as wild cards.
and internet before it, bioengineering
Bioengineering research is still costly,
has the potential to influence an
though the price of components, equipment, Media mentions
entire economy and to alter society and materials drops every year. Once a dis- Increased awareness and enthusiasm can
through political, economic, and so- ruptor can make a product cheaper with bio- influence the momentum of a technology,
cial structures. For most industries, engineering rather than traditional produc- even when there’s been no real breakthrough.
it’s not a matter of if these trends will tion, it will push faster into the mainstream. Media bursts related to bioengineering will
disrupt their futures but when. Advancements in technology will eventually drive momentum, especially if those stories
bring down costs of production as we’ve are favorable and—importantly—easily under-
Several factors are driving the mo- seen in other fields, such as computing. stood by the general public.
mentum of bioengineering trends and
Constraints on adoption Public perception
the probable timing an industry will Even if a technology is maturing, constraints How the public understands, and responds to,
be disrupted: on its adoption can hinder its influence in bioengineering advancements will create or
an industry. For example, a business may re- quell demand. This is especially true for food
fuse to adopt an alternative bioengineering and beverage, consumer packaged goods,
technology because it challenges a proven, beauty and fashion, over-the-counter medi-
successful strategy. cines and vaccines, and new therapeutics.

TECH BIOENGINEERING
There is no alignment on a global framework governing bioengineering. As a In the coming decade, biotech advancements will cause leaders to confront their core
result, you can anticipate geopolitical conflict stemming from the development beliefs about their business models, products, and services. In the meantime, it’s
and use of emerging bio-based technologies in the years to come. imperative that businesses seek out new partnerships, develop new pipelines for talent,
and align stakeholders on the moral and ethical uses of engineered biology.
Unresolved IP and patent issues in biotechnology raise serious concerns about
how patenting practices could hinder biotech development across various Because bioengineering has been evolving over decades, it may seem premature for
countries. action, but its advancements will compound. Like AI, which grew quietly before becoming
essential, bioengineering will soon be integral to operations. Leaders paying attention to
While new agricultural methods may benefit the environment, they pose threats its progress and harnessing strategic foresight can gain first-mover advantages.
to local communities in economies still reliant on traditional farming practices.
Biotech companies always face capital needs, particularly amid sector-wide valuation
CRISPR therapies may not be universally accessible, potentially deepening challenges. Streamlining R&D, general, and administrative expenses—as well as
global health divides and exacerbating current disparities, leading to worsened exploring new financing options, and considering mergers with other biotechs—can help
conditions and future conflicts. them navigate the current market landscape.
Engineering novel organisms and using techniques like germline editing risks Businesses should start exploring white spaces now. Where are the opportunities for
uncontrollable cascading effects in nature, potentially creating invasive species innovation and growth? What might threaten the organization’s ability to thrive? Where
or pathogens, turning a lab accident into an ecological disaster. are there downstream risks to partners or customers? Businesses that seek out and
anticipate near-term developments will gain a competitive advantage.
Generative biology (genBio) will unlock new ways to develop medicines, food, agricultural
systems, beauty and skincare products, textiles, packaging and building materials, and
more. Leaders should develop scenarios for using and scaling these genBio systems,
processes, and products.

TECH BIOENGINEERING
1 2 3 4 5 6
As companies consider AI’s As VC investment floods As the biotech ecosystem The AI-bio convergence will The uncertain regulatory To stay competitive, com-
impact on their workforce, into groundbreaking bio- evolves, life sciences and spark myriad innovations landscape offers a unique panies must use strategic
they are neglecting to fo- tech platforms this year, other companies will need and demand unprecedent- opportunity for business foresight to understand
cus on future demands for companies must distinguish to undertake a new dig- ed agility from companies. and government to collabo- how the evolving biotech
individuals skilled in both themselves by clearly de- ital transformation that Leaders must empower ratively envision the future. ecosystem could impact
AI and biology. Compa- fining their uniqueness. Also includes AI. This should their organizations to ex- Regulation is reactive. their existing products
nies across various sectors crucial is broadening their include the creation of periment with new prod- Stakeholders can proac- and processes. Leaders
should proactively develop focus from rare to major un- a long-term strategy, an ucts and processes, and tively evolve frameworks to should prioritize moni-
insights into their future met medical needs, ensur- expanded value network ensure that they shape their address safety, update IP toring, acting, and agile
workforce requirements ing a solid value proposition map, and a comprehensive own futures rather than and copyright processes, decision-making in order
and start establishing the to secure crucial VC funding execution plan to stay com- being compelled to adapt align on commercialization to adapt to the AI-bio
necessary talent pipeline for drug approvals. petitive and innovative. to external innovations or strategies, and thwart mis- convergence.
now. react to regulatory shifts. information.

TECH BIOENGINEERING
CENTRAL THEMES
Gene Editing Realizes Its Promise AI and Biology Are Converging Businesses and Governments Aren’t Prepared
CRISPR’s journey to commercial success has been a Increasingly, AI is being used in biological systems. Businesses and governments need to catch up as AI
marathon, not a sprint. For more than a decade, the Scientists are no longer limited by a traditional human and biology converge. Biotech fields are making dis-
gene-editing technology faced many hurdles, from team’s speed: New AI models now accurately predict coveries that not only deepen our insight and create
technical challenges to patent disputes to regulatory biological structures, a capability that will accelerate new options—they also introduce novel methods to al-
approval, slowing its path to practical applications. scientific research that used to take decades. The AI- ter biological systems, with outcomes that remain un-
Finally, in 2023, CRISPR’s promise crystallized with the bio convergence extends into computing itself, and predictable. Such progress presents vast opportunities
approval of Casgevy, a first-of-its-kind therapy for sick- researchers are exploring the creation of biology-pow- for investment and for businesses to meet their ESG
le cell disease in the UK and US. This landmark therapy, ered machines. These innovative systems promise to goals. However, it poses challenges for incumbents
which deactivates a specific gene, highlights CRISPR’s be faster, more efficient, and consume significantly in supply chain management, agriculture, consumer
ability to disable genes with precision. More impor- less energy than traditional computers. Organoid in- packaged goods, health, and biosciences that may
tantly, with government clearance and a real-world telligence aims to use human brain cells in a new type not see their value networks changing early enough to
use case, Casgevy opened the door to a vast array of of computer. Programmable DNA computers execute take action. Cyberbiosecurity is a growing and unmet
possibilities for gene editing and other biotechnology complex operations through molecular manipulation. need, as increasingly companies will need to protect
applications. However, as CRISPR therapies move to- Some researchers believe this fusion of computers and the biotech ecosystem from unauthorized access,
ward broader application, challenges remain: namely, biological processes is the real future of artificial in- damage, attack, and other threats. As new biotech-
the complexity and cost of treatments, accessibility telligence; both are important because they offer novel nologies emerge, a lack of alignment on purpose and
issues, and public trust. Despite these obstacles, CRIS- approaches to problem-solving and unlock new forms policy could result in the situation we see today with
PR’s trajectory toward commercialization marks a sig- of creativity. Biological computers potentially open AI. Without strategic foresight to prepare for the future,
nificant milestone—though the marathon continues. up unprecedented opportunities to improve compute the potential risks associated with biotechnological
power, data storage, and sustainability. advancements could surpass those of AI, underscoring
the urgent need for readiness.

TECH BIOENGINEERING
ONES TO WATCH
Dr. Amy Trejo, director of R&D and responsible Eben Bayer, co-founder and CEO of Ecovative, Josh Tetrick, co-founder and CEO of Eat Just, Dr. Raymond Deshaies, senior vice president
materials innovation at Procter & Gamble, for for innovating business models to integrate for commercializing cultured meat in the US for global research at Amgen, for his work on a
leveraging bioengineering for sustainability in mycelium technology into the production of and Singapore. new frontier of small molecule design via RNA
the consumer packaged goods space. food and materials. degradation.
Dr. Kimberly Smith, R&D chief at ViiV Health-
Dr. Arthur Levin, distinguished scientist at Dr. Emily Leproust, CEO of Twist Bioscience, care, for her work to end the HIV epidemic Dr. Sarah Reisinger, chief science and research
Avidity Biosciences, for engineering a new RNA for breaking new ground in high-throughput through her visionary practices and innovative officer for DSM-Firmenich, for her continued
platform that delivers therapy to previously synthesis and sequencing of DNA. approach to clinical development. work bridging the gap between R&D, technical
inaccessible tissue and cell types. requirements, and commercialization.
Dr. Gaurab Chakrabarti, CEO of Solugen, for Dr. Lisa Dyson, founder and CEO of Air Pro-
Dr. Cheryl Cui, CEO of Bota Biosciences, for decarbonizing the chemicals industry. tein, for her work developing food from carbon Dr. Yin Ye, CEO and executive director of BGI
launching a new type of engine for biological dioxide. Group, for scaling the industrial application
programming and discovery. Dr. Hal Barron, Dr. Rick Klausner, and Hans of cutting-edge biotechnology and genomics
Bishop, founders of Altos Labs, for leading a Dr. Mary Maxon, executive director of BioFu- research.
Chris Abbott, CEO of Pivot Bio, for scaling new effort on cellular rejuvenation program- tures at Schmidt Futures, for developing and
sustainable biotech solutions to meet global ming to reverse the human aging process. leading a new program to maximize the poten-
agricultural challenges. tial of biotech for a circular bioeconomy.
Dr. J. Craig Venter, CEO of JCVI and serial en-
Dr. Demis Hassabis and Dr. Shane Legg, trepreneur, for advancing the fields of synthetic Matthew McKnight, general manager of
co-founders of DeepMind, for their ground- biology and genomic research. biosecurity at Ginkgo Bioworks, for his role in
breaking AI inventions that predict biological advancing biotechnology for national security,
structures and combinations. Dr. Jason Kelly, co-founder and CEO of Ginkgo public health, and pandemic preparedness.
Bioworks, for scaling genetic engineering to
Didier Toubia, CEO and co-founder of Aleph produce bacteria with a wide variety of applica- Niyati Gupta, CEO of Fork & Good, for building
Farms, for achieving the world’s first govern- tions. and scaling new business models in food and
ment clearance to produce and sell cultured agribusiness.
beef. Dr. Jianmin Fang, co-founder and executive
director of RemeGen, for overseeing one of the Dr. Noubar Afeyan, CEO of Flagship Pioneering,
Dror Bin, CEO for the Israel Innovation Author- largest partnership deals between a Chinese for inventing and building platform companies,
ity, for scaling innovation resources in biotech biotech company and a Western company (Se- each with the potential to transform human
and other critical technologies. agen) in history. health and the planet.

TECH BIOENGINEERING
IMPORTANT TERMS
BIOENGINEERING DOMAINS ample: a bioreplacement material that is produced ADDITIONAL TERMS Enzyme
sustainably, at a lower cost than traditional raw A biological catalyst, usually a protein. Enzymes
Innovations in biotechnology are currently defined Cas9 (CRISPR associated protein 9)
materials, and poses no harm to the environment. speed up the rate of specific chemical reactions
by five key areas: biomolecules, biosystems, bioma- A special enzyme that can cut DNA sequences.
in cells.
terials, biocomputing, and biomachine interfaces. Cas9 is part of the “molecular scissors” method
Biomolecules (also known as omics)
Major breakthroughs in one field either reinforces of genome editing made possible by CRISPR.
A group of biological sciences collectively known as Ex vivo
or accelerates breakthroughs in the others.
“–omics,” including fluxomics (metabolic reactions Outside of cells or an organism.
Chimera
Biocomputing in cells), metabolomics (chemical species involved
A living organism created by combining cells from Gain of function (GoF) research
Biology is made up of code—and the goal is to in the reactions in cells), proteomics (the decoded
at least two genetically different organisms. Research intended to modify a biological pathway
harness that code for computing. DNA and RNA can product, or proteins), transcriptomics (the RNA cre-
ated from each piece of genetic code), and genom- in a cell line or organism to enhance or increase
be used as mediums for storing information and Chromosome
ics (the DNA code that drives cellular processes) is certain biological functions.
data processing. While traditional supercomputers A thread-like structure made up of a single length
use a lot of energy, heat up quickly, and require working to analyze the structure and functions of of DNA and found in the nucleus of each cell. Gene
costly cooling centers to function properly, biolog- biological molecules that translate into the func-
The basic unit of heredity.
ical computing systems can perform computation and dynamics of an organism. Learning about CRISPR (clustered regularly interspaced short
tions without burning excess energy—and they are and tinkering with the engineering of molecules palindromic repeats) Genome
infinitely scalable. (think: DNA, RNA) will lead to new therapeutics and A naturally occurring genetic engineering tool The complete set of DNA that makes up
innovative defenses against novel viruses, as well found in bacteria that can be programmed to target an organism.
Biomachine iInterfaces as alternatives to the ways we currently grow food. specific areas of genetic code and to edit DNA at
Innovative new interfaces are connecting living or- precise locations. Genome editing
ganisms to computers for many different purposes, Biosystems Intentionally altering cells or organisms by
from restoring a stroke victim’s ability to walk to Biology is complex. Scientists are applying engi- DNA (deoxyribonucleic acid) inserting, deleting, editing, or otherwise modifying
someday controlling external computers simply neering principles to understand and influence the A self-replicating two-stranded molecule, arranged a gene or gene sequence.
using thought. pathways, connections, and interactions within bias a double helix, that contains the genetic instruc-
ological systems. Developing new processes could tions used in the development, functioning, and Heritable genetic change
Biomaterials lead to new opportunities to modify or even create reproduction of an organism. Altering genes in a way that results in changes
It is now possible to replicate or improve on raw cells, tissues, organs, and potentially complex net- that pass down through generations.
materials using bioengineering technology. One ex- works like respiratory systems.

TECH BIOENGINEERING
IMPORTANT TERMS
In vivo Stem cell
Inside of cells or a living organism. Nonspecialized cells that have the ability to
develop into other types of cells with specialized
Induced pluripotent stem cells (iPSC) functions.
Cells that have been reprogrammed back into an
embryonic-like state with the potential to develop Synthetic biology
into other types of cells that can be used for thera- A field of science rooted in both biology and
peutic or reproductive purposes. engineering that seeks to redesign organisms, or
design new organisms, to have new abilities.
Mutation
A change in a DNA sequence.
Off-target effect
Typically an unintended direct or indirect conse-
quence of altering an organism.
Regenerative medicine
An emerging field seeking to repair or replace torn,
defective, or missing tissue using stem cells, engi-
neered cells, or biological processes.
RNA (ribonucleic acid)

A messenger chemical that carries instructions or
translates the genetic code of DNA into structural
proteins.

TECH BIOENGINEERING
AI AND
BIOLOGY

TECH BIOENGINEERING
AI AND BIOLOGY
Pharmaceutical Companies Invest in AI spend roughly $50 billion a year on AI to AI symptom checkers. As genAI technologies evaluations for 12 chemistry tasks. Separately,
Historically, scientists struggled to mine big propel every stage of new drug development, continue to evolve and integrate within the Gabriel Gomes at Carnegie Mellon Universi-
biological data sets for insights using con- from ideation to compound identification to pharmaceutical and life sciences sectors, ty and his colleagues also upgraded GPT-4
ventional statistical tools. With the spotlight clinical trial design and marketing. strategic shifts in how health care and med- with similar chemistry tools—with a twist.
now on AI, drug developers now see they’re ical research are conducted and managed This model is integrated in a remotely con-
Generative AI Gains Wide Acceptance will occur. trolled chemistry lab with liquid compounds
failing to capture the value of their important
asset: their data. AI’s potential to refine the Just a few years ago, the pharmaceutical that could be mixed using robotic arms. They
and life sciences industries weren’t all that Text-to-Synthetic Compound: LLMs asked the system to perform certain reactions
often unpredictable process of drug discovery
Automate Chemistry
is significant, since even marginal enhance- interested in investing in or using AI to by writing in a prompt, which was then exe-
ments can substantially improve the speed automate and improve various processes. While you were asking GPT-4 to write the lyr- cuted by the robotic arms in the lab. But when
and efficiency of developing new drugs. Two Last year, when genAI took center stage, that ics for a rap song about avocados, research- the team asked the system to whip up sarin
years ago, DeepMind’s AlphaFold made a resistance started to fade, especially in the ers have been enhancing the capabilities of gas, the model—mercifully—refused. While
notable breakthrough in predicting protein Asia-Pacific region where genAI startups are large language models to automate compli- AI promises a new pathway to automate the
structures, an advancement that will soon particularly active. Singapore’s Integrated cated tasks in chemistry. One such research- process of synthesizing compounds, it’s not
revolutionize the process of identifying mole- Health Information Systems entered a piv- er is Philippe Schwaller, from the Swiss without potential danger. Public domain tools
cules with therapeutic potential. But the prac- otal partnership with Microsoft and OpenAI, Federal Institute of Technology in Lausanne, could be used to create something potentially
tical application of AI in drug development which will create a health care–specific GPT whose team gave GPT-4 access to extensive dangerous.
is already underway. AstraZeneca now uses hosted on Azure. Once it’s finished, this databases of molecules, chemical reactions,
reinforcement learning in 70% of its small initiative aims to enhance the efficiency of and scientific research. They call the new AI-Generated Proteins
molecules in development. London-based health care workers by providing valuable system ChemCrow, and they’re using it on a An AI system can now create new types of
biotech startup E-therapeutics uses AI to de- insights and automating tasks. In Japan, wide range of chemistry challenges, includ- proteins that don’t exist in nature. By focusing
sign RNA molecules and algorithms to predict the introduction of an advanced genAI tool ing drug synthesis and cost calculation. on the protein’s amino acid building blocks,
their likely activity, in an effort to thwart dis- is transforming the way doctors process ChemCrow successfully devised a practical researchers can design a protein with special
ease-causing genes. Investment bank Morgan extensive patient interviews. Tokyo-based plan for synthesizing atorvastatin, a drug for properties—like being really tough or flexible—
Stanley projects that within the upcoming Ubie is a startup that makes AI-based health high blood cholesterol. On average, Chem- to make new materials that are like plastics
decade, the pharmaceutical industry could care products, hospital SaaS products, and Crow achieved over 9 out of 10 in human but better for the environment. Recently, ex-

TECH BIOENGINEERING
AI AND BIOLOGY
perts have made AI programs that can guess Generative Biology testing of drug compound candidates. This
the 3D shape of a protein from its amino acid What if it was possible to generate novel new approach circumvents the traditional,
sequence. But figuring out the best amino protein therapeutics using new computa- often prohibitively expensive, methods of
acid sequence to engineer a certain protein tional tools, without having to discover them chemistry-based experimentation. But the
shape is much harder. Researchers from MIT, through trial and error? That’s the promise use of AI in this context is not just a matter
the MIT-IBM Watson AI Lab, and Tufts Univer- of Boston-based startup Generate Biomedi- of cost-efficiency; it marks a transformative
sity used a generative AI model not unlike cines, which trained an AI to invent proteins step in bioengineering. By simulating molec-
DALL-E 2, which generates realistic images with structures that, as far as we know, don’t ular interactions on computers, researchers
from natural language prompts. Then, they exist anywhere in nature. Inspired by DALL-E can rapidly iterate and refine drug com-
adapted the model so it generates amino acid 2, the powerful text-to-image AI system from pounds, significantly accelerating the devel-
sequences of proteins that achieve specific OpenAI, Generate’s platform asks the user opment process. This method offers a more
structural objectives. The researchers used to describe the shape, size, and function sustainable, scalable, and potentially more
this architecture to build two machine learn- of a protein they’d like to see. It then uses accurate alternative to physical testing.
ing models that can predict a variety of new diffusion modeling to generate a structure What’s on the horizon: much faster, cheaper
amino acid sequences that form proteins with the right amino acids folded correctly to R&D. Our analysis suggests that organiza-
meeting structural design targets. Meanwhile, meet the description. Our understanding of tions that adapt in silico molecular simula-
researchers at the University of Washington’s the genome, along with fundamental molec- tions powered by AI will gain a competitive
Institute for Protein Design Baker Lab creat- ular and network mechanisms, is now being edge—and be prepared for knock-on effects
ed a new program, called RFdiffusion, which enhanced by innovative tools that allow us that make up the broader movement toward
allows scientists to upload a 3D model of a to interact with, examine, and manipulate a more innovative, data-driven approach in
cell and use software to identify the most biological systems in new ways. bioengineering and health care.
likely candidates for drug testing. RFdiffusion
A close-up view of fungal hyphae and spore struc-
increases the accuracy as much as 100-fold, Simulating Molecular Interactions Spatial Biology Improves with AI
tures. As AI and biology converge, it will be possible
compared to previous protein design pro- Increasingly, companies are using AI-pow- Spatial biology is a burgeoning field predi- for scientists to iterate on nature’s designs.
grams that didn’t use AI. ered simulations in place of the physical cated on gaining a deeper understanding of

TECH BIOENGINEERING
AI AND BIOLOGY
the human body using computer modeling automation, and sophisticated data analy-
and generative AI. Spatial biology’s core lies sis capabilities researchers will gain from
in examining cells and tissues within their spatial biology will transform our under-
natural 2D or 3D habitats, akin to how GPS standing of life. The full potential of spatial
technology pinpoints locations. It leverag- biology in diagnostics and treatment devel-
es cellular and molecular data to map the opment will usher in a new era of precision
intricate architecture of cells, allowing for a medicine. This represents not just a leap in
much more comprehensive understanding of medical science but also a paradigm shift
cellular interactions in their environment—a in our approach to health care and disease
perspective traditional methods like bulk management.
sequencing cannot offer. Why bother exam-
ining cells in super-high resolution? Because
a closer look will reveal complex cellular
interactions and functions, with the potential
to reach molecular or atomic level insights
as the technology improves. And increasingly,
spatial biology will produce complex data,
and companies will need advanced algo-
rithms to help mine it for insights. The field
is at the cusp of transforming our under-
standing of cellular mechanics and disease
pathology. Just as the James Webb Telescope,
with its super-high-resolution images, is
changing our understanding of the universe,
Emerging biotechnology techniques will allow scientists to create hyphae-like structures for any number
the technological advancements, improved of new purposes.
Image credit: Future Today Institute and Dall-E.

TECH BIOENGINEERING
GENE EDITING
& CRISPR

TECH BIOENGINEERING
GENE EDITING & CRISPR

CRISPR Treatment for Diseases inhibits the production of fetal hemoglobin. Next-Generation Gene Editors
Both the US Food and Drug Administration By disrupting BCL11A, Casgevy triggers the While CRISPR-Cas9 has been groundbreaking
and the UK medicines regulator have finalized production of a stable form of hemoglobin, in enabling precise DNA cutting, its applica-
their groundbreaking approvals of the first alleviating the symptoms of these diseases. tion is somewhat limited to diseases that
CRISPR gene therapy for Casgevy, a thera- The treatment process involves preparing can be addressed by gene disruption. The
py built on the CRISPR-Cas9 gene editing the patient’s bone marrow to receive the future of gene therapy lies in more versatile
tool. Casgevy targets sickle cell disease and modified cells and a subsequent period of gene editing tools that offer capabilities
β-thalassaemia, conditions characterized by hospitalization to ensure the cells’ effective such as activating genes, altering individ-
severe pain and the need for regular blood integration. While the treatment is effec- ual DNA bases, or introducing new genetic
transfusions. These approvals will pave the tive, its future widespread use is still in sequences.
way for future CRISPR therapies to potentially doubt. CRISPR therapies are expensive and
difficult to scale, due to the complexity and What’s on the horizon: an expansion of the
cure a wide range of genetic diseases. CRISPR
technological requirements of treatments, CRISPR toolkit, including base editing, prime
technology, which earned its creators Dr. Em-
including the extraction, modification, and editing, and epi-editing. Last year’s regulato-
manuelle Charpentier and Dr. Jennifer Doudna
reinsertion of blood stem cells. In the near ry approval of CRISPR/Cas9 therapies opened
the Nobel Prize in chemistry in 2020, is used
term, this will likely hinder their use in low- a new pathway to help next-gen gene edit-
in Casgevy to correct gene mutations respon-
and middle-income countries. While Casgevy ing technologies enter clinical trials faster,
sible for sickle cell disease and β-thalassae-
could serve as a catalyst for further R&D because the groundwork for navigating the
mia. These mutations affect hemoglobin
in gene editing and potentially transform regulatory and technological complexities of
in red blood cells, leading to serious health
the future of medical treatments, there is a novel gene therapies has now been estab-
complications. To administer the treatment,
pressing need for continued innovation and lished. We are finally moving from ambition
doctors first draw blood-producing stem cells
investment to make such groundbreaking and experimentation to practical application.
from patients and then use CRISPR-Cas9 to In the future, scientists will coax enzymes to
precisely edit the hemoglobin genes. Casgevy therapies more universally accessible. interact with DNA bases to produce more precise
targets the BCL11A gene, which normally molecular activity.

TECH BIOENGINEERING
New Editing Tools

Base editing
First developed in 2016 by Harvard biochemist David Liu, base editing allows for the precise
alteration of individual DNA letters. This technique has shown promise in preclinical studies
for diseases like muscular atrophy and muscular dystrophy. Beam Therapeutics, co-founded
by Liu, initiated the first US clinical trials in base editing for leukemia treatment, with initial
data expected in 2024. Meanwhile, Verve Therapeutics’ in vivo base editing trial for high
cholesterol has shown encouraging preliminary results, potentially revolutionizing coronary
disease treatment.
Prime editing
Also conceived in Liu’s lab, prime editing offers even greater precision, capable of deleting
or adding small DNA segments. As impressive as CRISPR is, it can sometimes change the
wrong genes or accidentally break apart strands of a DNA’s double helix. The refinement to
CRISPR affords more precision and versatility. Prime editing has demonstrated success in
correcting various inherited diseases in animal models.
Epi-editing
Epi-editing is yet another novel CRISPR application that modifies the epigenome to regulate
gene expression without altering the underlying DNA. This approach has already gained at-
tention for its potential in treating diseases by editing gene expression regulatory networks.
Durham, North Carolina–based Tune Therapeutics has shown promising results in gene
Next-generation gene editors will help expand the CRISPR toolkit, enabling scientists to perform more
silencing using epi-editing, and several companies, including San Francisco–based Epic Bio,
precise edits.
plan to commence clinical trials in the near future.

TECH BIOENGINEERING

In Vivo Gene Editing These promising outcomes have also been to specific proteins on the surface of cancer
It is now possible to inject CRISPR compo- replicated in a variant of the disease af- cells. Researchers at the Nanfang College
nents directly into the body and make chang- fecting heart tissues. Though the trial isn’t of Sun Yat-sen University and Huazhong
es to genetic material in vivo, or “within the expected to deliver concrete results until University of Science and Technology (both
living.” Unlike “ex vivo” editing, where cells 2027, its impact is already being felt. This is in China) loaded nanocarriers with a new
are modified outside the body and then rein- the first published instance of CRISPR being set of genetic instructions and successfully
troduced, in vivo editing involves introducing used directly in the bodies of a large group regressed leukemia in a mouse. The second
the gene-editing tools (like CRISPR-Cas9) in of individuals, marking a pivotal moment in technique involves engineering synthetic
the body using viral vectors or lipid nanopar- the field of gene editing. While this clearly gene circuits in order to protect healthy cells
ticles. Practically speaking, this means that means a big leap forward, it also raises con- when delivering cellular therapy. CAR T cells,
treating cancer would no longer require cerns about potential off-target effects and or white blood cells that have been geneti-
traditional chemotherapy—instead, cancer- the implications for germline cells, which are cally modified in a lab to help fight cancer
ous cells would be targeted and edited with critical for reproductive functions. more effectively, can be lethal to cells they
CRISPR. The FDA approved a phase 3 trial by come into contact with, whether they’re can-
Cell Therapy 2.0 cerous or not. A new method of controlling
New York–based Regeneron Pharmaceuticals
and Cambridge, Massachusetts–based Intel- For more than a decade, researchers have cell therapy, using engineered networks,
lia Therapeutics, which was co-founded by Dr. transplanted healthy, viable cells to replace would offer doctors better precision.
Jennifer Doudna. Their therapy, NTLA-2001, is or repair damaged ones. Most notably, cellu-
a groundbreaking one-time intravenous treat- lar therapy has shown promise in helping a
ment designed to target liver cells and specif- person’s immune system fight cancer. But
ically aims to disable a gene responsible for cellular therapy carries associated risks,
a progressive and fatal disease. Early clinical which range from flu-like symptoms to
Cells have complex structures that can be studied
trials of NTLA-2001 have shown remarkable death. The field is evolving, and two emerg- and manipulated using bioengineering techniques.
results, reducing disease-causing protein ing techniques are pushing cell therapy into
levels by up to 93%, with these reductions its next era. One is in vivo cell therapy, which Image credit: Future Today Institute and Dall-E.
remaining stable for at least nine months. helps patients produce cells that can bind

TECH BIOENGINEERING
READING &
SEQUENCING
GENOMES

TECH BIOENGINEERING
READING & SEQUENCING GENOMES

Next-Generation Genome Sequencing offering a new way of reading DNA that’s not in its approach, are pushing the entire field example, metagenomics can detect viruses on
When the first human genome was se- only easier and faster but also more afford- of sequencing forward. food items, like identifying viral contamina-
quenced in 2003, it cost roughly $2.7 billion able and adaptable than what we’ve had. tion on lettuce. This helps trace the source of
Just as the microprocessor revolutionized Metagenomics microbial and viral contamination, improving
and took 13 years to complete. In 2012, it cost
about $10,000 for researchers to sequence computing, shifting us from large, cen- Metagenomics represent a new approach food safety. It’s effective in cleaning up pollut-
a full genome, and today, you can sequence tralized mainframes to personal desktop in a genomic analysis. Simply put: imagine ants, by helping to identify microorganisms in
your genome from the comfort of your home computers, semiconductor technology is metagenomics is like dealing with one box polluted environments that can degrade toxic
for less than the price of a Black Friday TV set to make DNA sequencing much more full of 10 different jigsaw puzzles. In this substances more efficiently than other meth-
deal. The next generation of sequencers will accessible, allowing even small labs and analogy, each puzzle represents the DNA of ods. And it’s being used to identify how mi-
offer a monumental leap forward in speed clinics to have this powerful tool at their a different organism living in a particular croorganisms compete and communicate in
and efficiency, akin to the transition from disposal. This could transform many indus- environment. The challenge of metage- different environments, from human digestive
dial-up to high-speed internet. On the hori- tries, just like semiconductor chips did for nomics is to sort out these pieces and put tracts to deep-sea vents. Israel-based BiotaX
zon: ion semiconductor sequencing, which electronics. Oxford Nanopore makes devices together each individual puzzle correctly. As developed TaxonAI, a platform that can collect,
converts chemical information into digital for nanopore sequencing that relays infor- researchers are considering new therapies or analyze, and predict multiple disease states
data; nanopore sequencing, a technique that mation in real time. Unlike traditional DNA trying to understand how a virus or pathogen and calculate optimal interventions support-
reads molecular letters through tiny na- sequencing methods, where scientists have works, they need contextual data to under- ed by metagenomic AI analysis. Chile-based
no-size pores; and single-molecule real-time to wait until the end of the process to get any stand cause and effect. New metagenomics KITAI’s lab-on-a-chip combines AI, microfluid-
sequencing, which observes the DNA replica- data, nanopore sequencing lets them see tools help scientists solve several puzzles at ic, and metagenomics technologies to identify
tion process in real time. Ion Torrent, made by the results as they happen. This is great for once to understand the diverse range of life biological pests, monitor water sources, and
Thermo Fisher Scientific, automatically turns urgent situations, like identifying harmful forms coexisting in a specific environment. analyze environmental pathogens.
the basic building blocks of DNA (represent- bacteria or viruses quickly. And once scien- This is crucial for gaining insights into how
tists have the information they need, they these microorganisms interact with each Faster Gene Synthesis
ed by the letters A, C, G, T) into a form that
computers can understand (0s and 1s)—and can stop the sequencing. This means labs other, with humans, and with the environ- Synthesis transforms digital genetic code into
it does it right on a tiny semiconductor chip. can clean and reuse their equipment (called ment. It’s a complex task but offers valuable molecular DNA, allowing scientists to design
This method combines straightforward a flow cell), which is both time-efficient and information for various applications, from and mass-produce genetic material. Twist
chemistry with advanced chip technology cost-effective. These methods, each unique health care to environmental science. For Bioscience is a pioneer in the field; it’s formed

TECH BIOENGINEERING
as many as 300 base pairs of DNA, and these diseases at a molecular level. In technology, they had repeating segments or were sim- of Hawai‘i at Mānoa. With this move, NIH is
snippets, or oligos, can be joined together it could inspire new, more efficient ways of ply too challenging to be recognized and targeting colleges and universities with a his-
to form genes. Both the price for oligos and data processing and energy storage. It’s an cataloged. As technology improves, so will tory of serving underrepresented communities
the time to produce them is decreasing— exciting frontier that blends the most basic our ability to map a more detailed version of that haven’t recently received significant NIH
while base pairs are getting even longer and elements of our universe with the complexi- human life on a granular scale. The Telo- funding; the goal is that these centers will
more complex. It now costs an average of ty of life, opening up a world of possibilities mere-to-Telomere Consortium, aptly named enhance the universities’ research capabili-
just 7 cents per base pair—a 22% decrease for innovation and advancement in multiple after what’s called the end caps of chromo- ties and inspire students from diverse back-
year-over-year. Twist’s DNA snippets can be fields. One experiment has already yielded somes, published a new set of papers in grounds to pursue genomics. This initiative,
ordered online and shipped to a lab within results: At the Johns Hopkins University 2022 that identified all but five of the hidden part of the National Human Genome Research
days; the synthetic DNA is then inserted into Applied Physics Laboratory in Maryland, areas of the map. Using various sequencing Institute’s $32.7 million commitment over the
cells to create target molecules, which are the researchers found striking similarities be- technologies, including a novel nanopore next five to seven years, reflects a strategic
basis for new food products, fertilizers, indus- tween an enzyme central to human metab- device capable of reading 100,000 bases at move to diversify the genomics field, recogniz-
trial products, and medicine. olism and a magnetically sensitive protein a time alongside a sequencer with improved ing that diverse perspectives spur creativity
found in birds. This deepens our understand- accuracy, researchers discovered new areas and innovation.
Quantum Biology ing of magnetosensitivity—but in practical for gene evolution. In 2024 and beyond,
Quantum biology is an emerging field that terms, it also potentially transforms our scientists will gain new insights into regions Unlocking Bioinformatics Data
combines quantum physics—the science approach to studying biological navigation of the human genome that haven’t been Rapid advancements in technology and a
of the very small—with biology, the study of mechanisms. fully explored, and that should in turn reveal steep decline in sequencing costs are advanc-
living things. Researchers apply the princi- discoveries about human evolution, longev- ing the use of bioinformatics data. Scientists
ples that govern subatomic particles and to Using the Human Genome Map ity, and resiliency. Meanwhile, the National use this data—biological information stored
understand how living organisms work at a When the first human genome was deci- Institutes of Health has initiated a ground- digitally, primarily focusing on genetic and
fundamental level. For business leaders, this phered two decades ago, it was mostly—but breaking program with an initial investment molecular data—to investigate all sorts of
matters because quantum biology has the not entirely—complete. That’s because of $6.4 million to establish Diversity Centers questions: How do certain diseases affect our
potential to revolutionize various industries. roughly 200 million base pairs of DNA, or for Genome Research at three institutions: bodies at the molecular level? Can we design
It can lead to breakthroughs in medicine, about 8% of the human genome, weren’t yet the University of Texas Rio Grande Valley, new medicines to treat these diseases? How
by improving drug design or understanding readable by sequencing machines because Meharry Medical College, and the University do different species evolve and adapt to their

TECH BIOENGINEERING
environments? But there are challenges in high accuracy at a much lower cost. Reading, cently analyzed the DNA of a 10,000-year-old Programmable Gene Editing Proteins
understanding it. Sequencing an individual’s sequencing, and analyzing bioinformatics skeleton found in Somerset, England. The Researchers at the Massachusetts Institute of
entire genome now generates a staggering data using technological breakthroughs sequence showed that he likely had dark Technology found that certain eukaryotic or-
100 gigabytes of raw data, a figure that more have practical, real-world applications, such skin and blue eyes, a genetic combination ganisms (like plants, animals, and fungi) have
than doubles post-analysis with the applica- as quickly identifying genetic disorders in that might have been common millennia special enzymes that can cut DNA, similar to
tion of deep learning and natural language newborns or discovering new targets for ago but today is rare. This expansion of the how CRISPR technology works. These enzymes,
processing tools. This will result in a deluge of drug development. genetic diversity map goes beyond modern which seem to be related to some CRISPR pro-
data that experts estimate will need 40 exa- populations, offering insights into how spe- teins, could potentially be used to edit human
bytes for storage by 2025—that’s eight times Sequencing Ancient Genomes cies have evolved and adapted over millen- DNA, which means they could play a big role in
the storage required for every spoken word in Archaeology and genetics are merging, nia. But the impact of aDNA extends beyond future medical treatments and research. One
human history. Genome analysis pipelines hoping to surface new insights about the biology and archaeology; it fosters cultural team at MIT, led by Feng Zhang, focused on
are struggling to keep pace with this explo- history of life on Earth. The field of ancient and political connections, enhancing our systems in eukaryotes called OMEGAs (Obli-
sion of data. The complexity and computa- DNA (aDNA) research is starting to uncover collective understanding of the human gate Mobile Element Guided Activity), which
tional intensity of sequencing analysis, which a wealth of insights, from identifying new journey. Sequencing ancient genomes will could move small bits of DNA throughout
involves myriad steps to identify genetic branches of the human family tree to reveal- help historians develop a more accurate bacterial genomes. They discovered proteins
variations, are monumental tasks requiring ing the genomes of long-extinct species. For understanding of what society might have called Fanzors in various organisms, which
sophisticated technological solutions. example, recent breakthroughs have traced been like thousands of years ago and how are capable of editing DNA. These Fanzors are
the origins of the Black Death to present-day we compare today. As technology evolves, smaller than typical CRISPR proteins, making
Recent advances in deep learning and AI gen- aDNA research not only allows us to revisit
Kyrgyzstan and revealed lost Indigenous them potentially easier to use in therapies.
erally are significantly improving the process the past, it holds the key to unlocking future
populations. The sequencing of ancient ani- Although they’re not as efficient as current
of DNA sequencing, making it faster, more discoveries, making it an invaluable asset
mals and humans, from woolly mammoths CRISPR methods yet, the team has already
accurate, and less expensive. Nvidia, which in the quest for knowledge about the human
to Neanderthals, has provided a genetic improved their performance significantly. This
makes powerful GPUs, is applying AI to both experience.
window into bygone eras. The 1000 Ancient research could lead to new ways of editing
traditional (short-read) and newer (long-read)
Genomes project, led by Pontus Skoglund at genomes more efficiently and perhaps with
DNA sequencing methods. This is making it
the Francis Crick Institute in London, re- fewer side effects.
possible to sequence human genomes with

TECH BIOENGINEERING
BIOPRINTING,
ORGANOIDS,
AND NOVEL
ORGANISMS

TECH BIOENGINEERING
BIOPRINTING, ORGANOIDS, AND NOVEL ORGANISMS

Bioprinting Electronics Bioprinting and Tissue Engineering printed human hearts will be transplanted tive, scientists are creating organoids—tiny
In a groundbreaking development that blurs There is a critical shortage of organ dona- into live pigs to see if they can keep the ani- three-dimensional, multicellular clusters
the lines between biology and technology, tions, and until now, the only path to organ mals alive. Meanwhile, scientists at Harvard grown from human stem cells that resemble
researchers at UK-based Lancaster Univer- transplantation involved matching with a University’s Wyss Institute have developed a complex tissues like the heart and kidney. In
sity successfully 3D printed glowing shapes donor, making sure the recipient’s immune new 3D bioprinting technique for tissue. This December 2023, scientists at Weill Cornell
inside nematode worms, demonstrating the response doesn’t reject the organ, and mit- method creates thick, vascularized tissues Medicine used an organoid model to identify
potential to embed electronics directly within igating the risk of infection. An emerging using living human cells consisting of a spe- a new pancreatic cancer treatment. A month
living organisms. The team leveraged a pho- solution is organ bioprinting, which leverag- cial silicone mold to shape and support tis- later, scientists at the Princess Máxima Cen-
tonic 3D printer and a special ink that shapes es stem cell technology to fabricate organs sue on a chip. In the mold, they first print a ter for Pediatric Oncology in the Netherlands
and activates the material within the organ- tailored to the recipient’s cellular profile, and network of large blood vessel channels with successfully grew tiny brain organoids in a
ism. By feeding this ink to nematode worms, in turn, should reduce the risk of rejection. endothelial cells in silicone ink. Then, they dish from human fetal brain tissue. They also
the team was able to create intricate conduc- Researchers at Stanford University received add another layer with mesenchymal stem revealed that the tiny blobs of tissue could
tive circuits in the form of stars and squares a landmark federal contract from the Ad- cells in a different print. Finally, they fill the be reprogrammed to have certain diseases,
inside the living worms. This technique vanced Research Projects Agency for Health remaining spaces with a liquid containing in order to study developmental disorders or
suggests potential for improving traditional to grow human organs inside of bioreactors, fibroblasts and extracellular matrix, creating brain cancers. Scientists are already exper-
electronic implants, such as pacemakers and which are machines that provide a biologi- a connective tissue that strengthens the imenting with transplantation: In separate
bionic ears, which have transformed medi- cally active environment where cells, tissues, whole structure. Tissues are about 10 times experiments, researchers at Stanford and the
cal treatments but come with their own set or microorganisms can be grown or main- thicker than those made before and can last University of Pennsylvania successfully trans-
of challenges, including infection risks and tained under controlled conditions. The team up to six weeks. planted human brain organoids into damaged
maintenance difficulties. The Lancaster Uni- will grow all the cell types needed to produce rat brains. The organoid made connections to
Fabricating Organoids the rest of the brain and responded to flashing
versity team’s work is part of a growing trend a human heart inside the bioreactor and
in bioprinting electronic implants and com- eventually feed the cells into a bioprinter to It’s difficult and dangerous for scientists light stimuli. This raises both complex ethical
puter-brain interfaces, which could replace fabricate a fully functional human heart. It’s to study how living human tissue responds concerns and, perhaps, fears of a day when
the medical devices we use today. estimated that bioreactors could produce to viruses, medications, or other stimu- super-rats emerge that can process informa-
needed cells by the billions, and eventual- li, because brain or heart tissue can’t be tion as well as humans. This area of research
ly print a heart every two weeks. This year, removed from a living person. As an alterna- is controversial in some countries, including

TECH BIOENGINEERING
the US, where bills introduced into both the to-treat pneumonia by forming biofilms, or processes, and physiological responses.
Senate and in many state legislatures call for thick layers, in our lungs. Understanding how It turns out that these chips are better at
a ban on any research involving fetal tissue, these biofilms develop has been difficult. To predicting real-world responses in humans
even if it was cultivated in a lab. better study this, the researchers grew mini than the animals typically used in the lab.
lung-like structures from stem cells, called Researchers in South Korea developed an
Growing Organoids to Study Long COVID AirGels, that mimic the actual environment artificial nervous system that can simulate
Organoids are being used to research the of our airways, including the presence of a conscious response to external stimuli. It
lasting effects of SARS-CoV-2, the COVID-19 mucus and the air-liquid interface found in includes an artificial neuron circuit, which
virus, in addition to other respiratory diseas- our lungs. The team discovered that Pseudo- acts like a brain; a photodiode that converts
es. Miniature brains, lungs, guts, and livers monas aeruginosa quickly forms biofilms in light into electrical signals; and a transistor
are being grown in high-security labs and connection with lung mucus by pulling the that acts as a synapse. All these compo-
infected with the virus, as are combinations mucus together using tiny, retractable fila- nents are connected to a robotic hand. Think
of different organs to test therapies and the ments, called type IV pili. This study shows of this as “wetware” rather than computer
lasting impacts of long-haul Covid. Scientists that while mucus normally protects our lung hardware. This type of a system could help
at the Karolinska Institute in Sweden infected cells, it can also provide a place for harmful people with certain neurological conditions
brain organoids with SARS-CoV-2 and discov- biofilms to grow. regain control of their limbs. It could even-
ered that brain fog could be caused by the tually be worn or even embedded. Emulate,
destruction of connections between neurons. Organ-on-a-Chip a company that makes OoCs, tested 870
Neurobiologists at the UK’s MRC Laboratory of Picture something like a computer chip human liver-chips across a blinded set of
Molecular Biology in Cambridge used organ- but with a transparent circuit board that’s 27 drugs with known toxicity issues—and
oids to learn that SARS-CoV-2 damages the connected to a biological system pumping the chips did a better job of predicting drug
protective barrier of the brain. Meanwhile, sci- a blood substitute through tiny blobs of safety than the usual methods of studying
Originally intended for manufacturing, 3D printing
entists at the Global Health Institute at Swiss tissue. Organ-on-a-chip systems (OoCs) are drug interactions. A team of bioengineers techniques are being applied for human tissue
Federal Institute of Technology in Lausanne synthetic organs made of multichannel, at Harvard made a vagina-on-a-chip using production and printable drugs.
are studying a harmful bacteria called Pseu- three-dimensional microfluidic cell culture donated vaginal cells. The chip successfully
domonas aeruginosa, which can cause tough- technology that promotes organ functions, mimicked the vaginal microbiome and is Image credit: Future Today Institute and Dall-E.

TECH BIOENGINEERING
actually more realistic than other existing to carry out specific reactions. Adding the Bacterial Nanosyringes phaFold AI program to adapt nanosyringes to
models currently used in labs. OoC academic right starting compounds would set off a In an emerging advancement bridging bind to specific human proteins. This break-
research and startups are attractive to both reaction resulting in the desired end product. microbiology and medicine, researchers are through technique has already demonstrat-
venture funding and foundations, which view A decade later, Cronin and his team have 3D transforming bacteria into nanosyringes ed its potential in lab settings, successfully
the technology as foundational to new drug printed a series of connected containers that capable of targeting human cells for precise delivering various proteins to targeted human
discovery. perform a variety of chemical reactions. This protein delivery. This innovative approach, cells and even to neurons in mice.
setup involves 12 different steps, including redefining the boundaries of targeted medi-
3D Printed Drugs filtering and evaporating solutions. By care- Using Viruses to Deliver Big DNA Payloads
cal treatments, could dramatically improve
Drug manufacturing today requires enormous fully adding specific chemicals and liquids the effectiveness and safety of therapies for Bacteriophages, also known as phages,
facilities and doesn’t allow for customiza- at the right times and in the correct order, many different health conditions, including are viruses that infect and replicate only in
tion. Emerging techniques using 3D print- they transformed basic, easily accessible cancer. Some of our most powerful drugs are bacterial cells. They are ubiquitous in the
ing technology could improve the variety of ingredients into a muscle relaxant known made up of small molecules that indiscrimi- environment and are recognized as the most
medicines offered to patients. For example, as baclofen. Additionally, by changing the nately enter cells and cause unintended side abundant biological agent on earth. Last year,
Chinese bioprinting company Triastek devel- design of these containers and using dif- effects. Large molecules like proteins could researchers modified a phage to deliver 20
ops 3D printed medicines and operates the ferent chemicals, they were able to produce offer targeted and potent therapeutic ben- times more DNA to human cells than has
production facilities to manufacture them. other medications, such as an anticonvul- efits, but have one big challenge: they can’t ever been possible before in gene therapies.
Laxxon Medical, based in New York, developed sant and a drug used to treat ulcers and acid get through cell membranes. This is where This breakthrough, led by Dr. Venigalla Rao
3D screen printing technology that results in reflux. But it’s not clear yet if the authorities the bacterial nanosyringes come into play, at The Catholic University of America, could
medicines in a variety of shapes intended for that check drug safety will agree to this new offering a solution already found in nature. unlock new frontiers in cell and gene thera-
oral, transdermal, and implantable formats. Or method of making medicines. Regulators Bacteria like Photorhabdus have evolved pies, enabling complex, multifaceted modifi-
what about printing medicine at home? Back like the FDA would have to change their safe- cylindrical structures that function like mi- cations to human cells in a single treatment
in 2012, Leroy Cronin, a chemist at the Univer- ty rules: Rather than just checking the place croscopic syringes, injecting their contents step. The virus, equipped to carry DNA strands
sity of Glasgow in the UK, published a paper in where drugs are made and the drugs them- directly into targeted cells. Researchers at up to 171,000 base pairs in length, offers an
the journal Nature Chemistry describing “re- selves, they would need to make sure that the Zheng Lab at MIT, led by Joe Kreitz and unprecedented capacity to transport not only
actionware,” which are 3D-printed chemical the new equipment used for making drugs his team, managed to harness this natural large DNA sequences but also over a thousand
vessels containing the components needed actually makes the right medicine. mechanism, using Google DeepMind’s Al- additional molecular components like RNAs

TECH BIOENGINEERING
and proteins. This capability could transition a single-celled organism with even fewer
gene therapy from mere treatment to po- genes—just 473—which made it the sim-
tential cures, especially for complex genetic plest life-form ever known. But the organism
conditions like muscular dystrophy, which acted in ways scientists hadn’t predicted,
have previously been hindered by the DNA producing oddly shaped cells as it self-repli-
size limitations of existing viral vectors. cated. Scientists came to believe that they’d
taken away too many genes, including those
Minimum Viable Lifeforms responsible for normal cell division. They
To understand how new organisms might be remixed the code once again, and in 2021
created, scientists have long pursued devel- announced a new variant, JCVI-syn3A. It still
oping an MVP—minimum viable product—for has fewer than 500 genes, but it behaves
biology. In 2010, scientist J. Craig Venter more like a normal cell. Now, researchers are
and his team announced an astonishing working to strip down the cell even further.
discovery: They could destroy the DNA of an They developed a new synthetic organ-
organism called Mycoplasma capricolum ism called, M. mycoides JCVI-syn3B, which
and replace it with DNA they had written on a evolved for 300 days, proving that it could
computer that was based on a similar bac- still mutate. Researchers at Osaka Metropoli-
terium, Mycoplasma mycoides. They named tan University created a synthetic bacterium
their 907-gene creature JCVI-syn1.0, or Syn- capable of swimming by introducing seven
thia, for short. It was the first self-replicating proteins into it. With minimal genetic infor-
species on the planet whose parents were, mation, the spherical synthetic bacteria are
technically, computers, and the project was thought to be the smallest mobile lifeform
designed to help the team understand the to date. These minimal viable organisms
basic principles of life, from the minimal cell will help researchers design the future of life
Organs-on-a-chip are small devices that have tiny pieces of human tissue inside them, and they are spe-
up. In 2016, Venter’s team created JCVI-syn3.0, from first principles. cially made to keep the tissues working like they would in the human body.
Image credit: Penn Medicine News.

TECH BIOENGINEERING
BIOCOMPUTING &
CYBERBIOSECURITY

TECH BIOENGINEERING
BIOCOMPUTING AND CYBERBIOSECURITY

Organoid Intelligence an sci-fi novel? As the world demands more squares—and after eight sessions, the bac- and the software that operates them. A pro-
In February 2023, scientists formed a new AI applications like ChatGPT, we’ll need more teria played at an expert level. While the bac- gram called DNAr, developed at the Federal
field, called organoid intelligence (OI), which energy-intensive computers and networks to teria haven’t yet beat humans at the game, University of Mato Grosso do Sul in Brazil,
is now considered the next frontier of biocom- crunch all that data. OI might be able to per- there’s an interesting analogy worth remem- simulates chemical reactions, while another
puting. To meet AI’s growing computational form all of those tasks using a fraction of the bering: The benchmarks in computing and called DNAr-Logic enables scientists to design
needs, there’s a shift away from traditional resources required of a traditional computer. specifically in AI have always been gameplay. circuits. A high-level description of a logical
Von Neumann architecture toward more This isn’t the only biological computer. A circuit is then converted into a chemical-re-
Training Biocomputers to Learn New Skills biocomputer called DishBrain learned how to action network, which can be synthesized into
innovative approaches. One is neuromorphic
computing, inspired by the brain’s structure, Scientists at the Spanish National Research play the 1980s video game Pong. DishBrain DNA strands. Dramatically speeding up the
which efficiently handles simultaneous infor- Council genetically modified a strain of E. is made of ~1 million live human and mouse design process for biological circuits could
mation storage and processing. That’s what coli called Marionette so that it could sense brain cells grown on a microelectric array drastically reduce the time it takes to discover
led researchers at Johns Hopkins to create OI, different chemicals and respond to them. that can receive electrical signals. The sig- health treatments and new drugs.
which uses biological materials—most often But that wasn’t all. They modified the strain nals tell the neurons where the Pong ball is,
so its plasmids each encoded for a different and the cells respond. The more the system Programmable DNA Machines
human brain cells—for information process-
ing, leveraging their inherent capabilities be- fluorescent protein (red and green). While played, the more it improved. Cortical Labs In a breakthrough that could redefine comput-
yond silicon-based systems. This represents the researchers could alter the ratio of the is now developing a new kind of software, ing, scientists at Shanghai Jiao Tong Universi-
a significant step in harnessing the brain’s red and green with future chemical inputs, a Biological Intelligence Operating System ty in China unveiled what might be the world’s
natural efficiency for AI applications. Late in without inputs, the ratio would simply stay (biOS for short), which would allow anyone first programmable DNA computer, capable
2023, a biocomputing system made of living constant and, in a way, was a form of mem- with basic coding skills to program their of executing billions of unique circuits. This
brain cells learned to recognize the voice of ory. Here’s where things got interesting: The own DishBrains. Further demonstrations of could usher in a new era where computers
one person from a set of 240 audio clips of team grew the Marionette strain in eight new, simple forms of neural networks made could solve complex mathematical problems
eight people pronouncing Japanese vowel wells that correspond with the outer squares from biology will likely occur this year. and potentially aid in diagnosing diseases.
sounds. The clips were sent to the organoids of a grid and taught it how to play tic-tac-toe. Rather than relying on a traditional silicon
Initially, the bacteria played randomly, but Biological Circuits microchip-based framework, DNA computers
as sequences of signals arranged in spatial
patterns. Why bother inventing technology the Spanish National Research Council team Scientists are in the process of building operate using the very molecules that have
that sounds like it was inspired by a dystopi- trained the strain by adding chemicals to the biological circuits, made of synthetic DNA, been nature’s medium for storing life’s blue-

TECH BIOENGINEERING
prints for eons. After all, biology has a code— Using DNA to Store Data storage method involves converting digital problems. It’s durable, too: Evolutionary sci-
ACTG—not unlike binary code (1s and 0s) in In 2018, scientists from Microsoft Research data into DNA sequences made of the ACTGs entists routinely study DNA that is thousands
conventional computing. But while biology and the University of Washington achieved a (adenine, cytosine, guanine, and thymine) of years old to learn more about our human
can be expressed in code, DNA is organic—and new milestone: They discovered how to cre- you learned about in high school. The pro- ancestors. In China, scientists at Tianjin
molecules have a habit of moving around ran- ate random access memory on DNA at scale. cess, which takes about eight hours for 1 University stored 445 kilobytes of data in an E.
domly. For that reason, the researchers took They encoded 200 megabytes of data on hu- kilobyte, involves chemically synthesizing coli cell. In the US, Twist Bioscience is making
inspiration from origami and designed DNA man DNA—including 35 video, image, audio, a unique DNA strand to match the desired hyperdense, stable, affordable DNA storage by
sequences to fold into specific shapes, allow- and text files ranging from 29 kilobytes to 44 sequence, then drying and sealing it on a using robots to create a million short strands
ing them to function like parts in a computer, megabytes. In 2021, the team built a molec- chip to protect against oxygen. To access of DNA at a time from microscopic drops of
guiding the flow of data. In experiments, they ular controller and DNA writer on a chip, with the stored data, customers must send one nucleotides on silicon chips. The end result
built a DNA computer with 30 logic gates a PCIe interface. Microsoft used the system of their DNA cards to Biomemory’s partner, will be a tiny, pill-size container that could
and 500 DNA strands, capable of calculating to store a version of the company’s mission US-based Eurofins Genomics. The retrieved someday hold hundreds of terabytes of ca-
square roots and identifying genetic markers statement in DNA: “Empowering each person data, in the form of DNA sequences, is then pacity. Now, a consortium called the DNA Data
of kidney cancer. to store more!” Flash forward to 2024, and emailed back and can be decoded using Storage Alliance is developing an interoper-
Paris-based startup Biomemory has intro- Biomemory’s DNA translation feature. Cards able storage ecosystem using DNA as a data
To be fair, this new DNA computer takes aren’t rewritable—meaning, they can only be storage medium. Founders include Microsoft,
duced DNA cards, a new form of data storage,
hours to perform simple computations and decoded once. as well as Western Digital, Twist Bioscience,
priced at $500. Each card offers one kilobyte
won’t replace regular computers anytime and Illumina. Members of the Alliance, includ-
of storage, equivalent to a short email. This
soon. But the research does hold promise for The Intelligence Advanced Research Proj- ing Los Alamos National Laboratory, Seagate,
could be useful for anyone wanting to save
certain biomedical applications. For example, ects Activity, a group in the Office of the FujiFilm, Dell Technologies, Lenovo, IBM, and
ultrasensitive data. DNA storage is recog-
a DNA machine could detect specific genes Director of National Intelligence, intends to the University of Arizona’s Center for Applied
nized for its remarkable longevity, with a
and respond with a DNA strand that triggers store an exabyte of data—roughly a million Nanobioscience and Medicine are hoping to
potential lifespan of hundreds of thousands
biological reactions, useful in environmental terabyte-size hard drives—in a blob of DNA. A write megabytes of data per second on syn-
of years in optimal conditions, far exceeding
monitoring or disease treatment. What’s next: weird branch of biological science, yes, but thetic DNA that will be readable for thousands
traditional storage devices like hard drives.
cajoling DNA to perform complex algorithms human computing has practical purposes: of years.
(Biomemory’s DNA cards guarantee a mini-
and disease diagnosis. DNA could solve our future data storage
mum lifespan of 150 years.) This innovative

TECH BIOENGINEERING

Biological Robots derstand how defects in the hairlike struc- that don’t already exist in natural organisms.
In 2020, a cluster of stem cells from an tures in our lungs, called cilia, can result in These characteristics will someday enable
African clawed frog served as the base for a diseases. Also in progress: xenobots that can their use as a biorobotics platform for vari-
fortuitous experiment involving a supercom- travel to a damaged spinal cord and repair it ous medical and other purposes. For exam-
puter, a virtual environment, and evolutionary with regenerative compounds. ple, with some modifications, it’s possible to
algorithms. Researchers created 100 genera- build cell clusters that could be dispatched
Meanwhile, another type of living robot,
tions of prototypes before they had a tiny blob to repair damaged tissues within the body.
anthrobots, were developed in 2022 from
of programmable tissue called a xenobot.
donated human tracheal cells. Covered in Living Sensors
These living robots can undulate, swim, and
cilia, these anthrobots harnessed the struc-
walk. They work collaboratively and can even Research is already underway to develop bi-
tures like flexible oars to propel themselves
self-heal. And they’re tiny enough to be inject- osensors that can detect deadly bioweapons
around. When grown in a petri dish, scien-
ed into human bodies, travel around, and— on the battlefield and harmful chemicals
tists discovered the bots could be assem-
maybe someday—deliver targeted medicines. in factories by identifying the presence of
bled into super-anthrobots to perform tasks.
While technically they’re made up of living specific DNA sequences. Researchers at the
A team at Tufts University grew a sheet of
cells, researchers are quick to point out that University of California San Diego created a
human neural cells and scratched a few off,
xenobots lack the characteristics of a tradi- bacterium called Acinetobacter baylyi capa-
to create a defect roughly a millimeter wide.
tional biological life-form. In 2021, xenobots ble of detecting a single DNA letter mutation
With super-anthrobots on the other side,
got a design upgrade and new capabilities. in a gene that’s present in many cancers.
bots catalyzed healing. While some skep-
While before they needed the contraction of With a focus on the microbiome, they en-
tics claim that the significance of biologi-
heart muscle cells to move forward, upgraded gineered the bacterium to detect mutated
cal robots are overhyped—they’re not really
xenobots can self-propel using tiny hairs on DNA sequences while living inside of the gut.
programmable robots after all—it’s useful to
their surfaces. The current crop of xenobots While still very early in development, living
think about this tissue in a broader context. General DNA integrated circuits can solve math
live longer, and they can sense what’s in their sensors could someday be used to detect problems and identify molecular biomarkers, show-
Instead of viewing the cell clusters merely as
environment. They can also operate in robot viral outbreaks in a community’s sewage ing promise that DNA computers might one day
tiny tissue samples for studying human biol-
swarms to complete a collaborative task. Xe- system, cholera in drinking water, and other prove useful for clinical and diagnostic applications.
ogy, they have distinct shapes and behaviors
nobots are being used to help researchers un- pathogens.

TECH BIOENGINEERING

Cyberbiosecurity is no formal governing organization yet. (If
Cyberbiosecurity is a relatively new inter- this sounds somewhat familiar, it’s because
section between biology, biosecurity, and it happened before with AI. More than two
cybersecurity that will soon become a criti- decades ago, there were calls to establish a
cal frontier in the safeguarding of the global similar governing organization for AI. Today,
bioeconomy against burgeoning threats. the regulatory landscape is a mishmash of
As AI continues to mesh with life scienc- different policies often in conflict and hard
es, advancements underscore a dual-edge to enforce.)
potential: On the one hand, we’ll see faster
development of new vaccines, therapeu-
tics, and materials, which stand to promote
economic growth while improving health
and creating more options to battle climate
change. On the other hand, these new tools
could be misused. Technologies with AI-bio
capabilities bear the risk of triggering biologi-
cal catastrophes. As of now, there is no single
body charged with overseeing cyberbiosecu-
rity. The Nuclear Threat Initiative, a nonpar-
tisan global security organization focused
on reducing nuclear and biological threats
imperiling humanity, convened a panel of
This magnified image shows a brain organoid produced in the lab of Dr. Thomas Hartung, a professor of en-
leading experts on synthetic biology, machine vironmental health and engineering at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health and Whiting
learning, bioinformatics, and international School of Engineering in Baltimore. The culture was dyed to show neurons in magenta, cell nuclei in blue
security policy in January 2024, however there and other supporting cells in red and green.
Image credit: Courtesy Jesse Plotkin and Johns Hopkins University.

TECH BIOENGINEERING
NEW
MATERIALS

TECH BIOENGINEERING
NEW MATERIALS
AI-Created New Materials make better solar cells, batteries, computer able, novel solution for fire retardation within durable, lightweight material that is heat-treat-
Last year, the Google DeepMind team revealed chips, and more. Meanwhile the Lawrence building materials. Researchers at RMIT ed to halt growth, yielding a completely natural
its Graphical Networks for Material Explo- Berkeley National Laboratory created a new University in Melbourne, Australia, have used and compostable packaging solution. It’s an
ration (GNoME)—a sort of AlphaFold, but for autonomous lab using GNoME called A-Lab. this technology to develop a new biological eco-friendly alternative to conventional styro-
new materials. Remarkably, it predicted the It uses a materials database, incorporates material for fire retardancy. Unlike asbestos, foam or bubble packaging.
structures of 2.2 million new materials, and findings from GNoME, and employs ma- which has terrific fire retardant properties
chine learning along with robotic arms to but releases harmful particles upon com- Mycelium Leathers
some 700 have already been created in labs
for testing. GNoME has significantly expanded create new materials autonomously, with- bustion, engineered mycelium are safe and Besides fire retardancy and packaging, luxury
the repository of stable materials to 421,000, out human intervention. A-Lab was able to effective. Fire retardant sheets are grown and companies are eying mycelium as an alter-
a nearly tenfold increase, showcasing its synthesize 41 out of 58 proposed compounds then layered into protective mats only a few native to leather. Hermès created a myceli-
efficiency in identifying viable new materials. over 17 days, showcasing a much faster pace millimeters thick. This innovative fabrication um version of its classic luxury Victoria bag,
Here’s why this is significant: the tradition- of material creation compared to traditional process results in a material that not only while Adidas launched a pair of Stan Smith
al methods used to discover new materials labs. This efficiency is critical in a field where delays the ignition of building components, shoes made out of the leather alternative. Bolt
involve experimenting with element combina- experimentation can otherwise be dauntingly but also exhibits a unique fire response Threads and Ginkgo Bioworks announced a
tions from the periodic table, a slow, tedious, slow. AI will significantly enhance the pro- mechanism. In case of a fire, the mycelium multi-project collaboration to optimize the
and inefficient process. DeepMind uses cess of discovering and creating new materi- sheets momentarily ignite, discharging water production efficiency of mycelium leathers
two deep-learning models instead: the first als, which will ultimately lead to better solar vapor and carbon dioxide, thereby reducing and to develop novel proteins for biomaterials.
generates structures by tweaking existing cells, batteries, computer chips, and more. the oxygen available for the fire to sustain Research and Markets, a provider of data and
materials, while the second predicts material itself. This reaction culminates in the forma- analysis, forecasts that the global market for
Modifying Fungi for Building and Packaging tion of a carbonaceous layer, which effectively synthetic leather materials could approach
stability based purely on chemical formulas.
This dual-model strategy broadens the search In an era marked by escalating fire risks to stops the propagation of flames. New York– $67 billion by 2030. Meanwhile, the market for
for new materials. GNoME’s role is to evaluate residential structures, synthetic biology may based Ecovative is also harnessing fungi bio-based leather, which comprises materials
these candidates, focusing on their decompo- help enhance the safety of buildings. Ultra- in its Mushroom Packaging, using organic of natural origin, was valued at approximately
sition energy to determine material stability, thin sheets can be made from the expansive, waste and mycelium grown in custom molds $650 million in 2021, according to Polaris Mar-
a crucial factor for engineering applications. root-like networks beneath mushrooms without light, water, or chemicals. This pro- ket Research. Until now, there have been many
Newly discovered materials can be used to known as mycelium—and they may be a scal- cess takes five to seven days and results in a leather alternatives made from plastics such

TECH BIOENGINEERING
NEW MATERIALS
as polyurethane or polyvinyl chloride, common- Intelligent and Active Packaging color when the product is no longer safe to Durable Biofilms
ly referred to as PVC, leading to the somewhat Active packaging works by incorporating consume, giving consumers a clear, visual A biofilm is essentially a community of bacte-
disparaging nickname “pleather.” Mycelium substances like antimicrobials and antiox- signal about the state of their food. ria living together in a structured formation.
offers a viable, sustainable alternative. idants directly into the packaging to extend While biofilms can be beneficial, such as
Biodegradable and Edible Packaging
the food’s shelf life and enhance its safety in treating wastewater, they can also cause
Biomolecule-Based Packaging Smart packaging will drive agricultural
and taste. For example, a company might significant problems, including damaging
Packaging made from natural materials like use packaging with built-in antimicrobials advances and investment. Biopolymers such infrastructure through corrosion and being
plants or proteins is biodegradable and safe to keep bread fresher for longer by prevent- as polysaccharides, proteins, and lipids can involved in up to 60% of infectious diseases.
for the environment. However, single-material ing mold growth. Intelligent packaging, on be used to fabricate edible films or coatings Bacteria in biofilms become tougher, harder to
packages can have drawbacks, so research- the other hand, includes smart indicators as packaging. Rather than throwing away remove from surfaces, and more resistant to
ers are mixing different natural substances that show changes in the food’s condition, your strawberries’ packaging, you can eat the antibiotics compared to their solitary counter-
to make stronger, better packaging. Depend- such as freshness, quality, or safety. These wrapping. University of Minnesota research- parts. Researchers at the University of Roches-
ing on the food and storage method, these indicators can react to environmental ers are developing polymers that self-deter have developed a method to create bio-
eco-friendly packages can protect food by changes like temperature, humidity, or the struct or “unzip” when exposed to light, heat, films through 3D printing. They’ve genetically
keeping out germs, preventing spoilage, and presence of certain gasses. Researchers at or acid. Saltwater Brewery designed biode- modified bacteria to produce biofilm compo-
reducing water loss, among other things. the NOVA School of Science and Technology gradable and edible plastic rings for six- nents, allowing these bacteria to be printed in
There’s also a new type of packaging that in Portugal are developing bio-based sensors packs of beer—so sea turtles can eat them a hydrogel. This process forms biofilms with a
includes natural preservatives to keep food made from natural extracts and biopolymers rather than get tangled in them. Infarm cre- dense network that mimics natural biofilms’
fresh longer by stopping bacteria growth or that can act as smart food packaging, with ated a renewable plastic that folds around structure. The technique offers precise control
preventing the food from going bad. Another indicators showing various factors such as objects. It uses seaweed-based agar-agar gel over the bacteria’s distribution and density,
innovative idea in development is “smart” freshness. Eventually, this could mean the to grow microgreens and herbs that don’t enabling detailed studies on biofilm behav-
packaging that changes color or shows signs end of expiration dates, which aren’t actu- need water. At the end of 2022, Prince Wil- ior and the creation of biofilms with specific
to indicate how fresh the food is, helping ally connected to whether food is spoiled liam awarded a $1.2 million Earthshot Prize patterns for various applications, opening up
everyone from producers to consumers keep or fresh. Expect to see meat packaging that to Notpla, a startup that uses seaweed to a wide array of practical applications in man-
track of food quality. changes color if the meat starts to spoil, produce naturally biodegradable packaging. ufacturing, supply chain, transportation, food
or a milk carton with a label that shifts and beverage, and beyond.

TECH BIOENGINEERING
CULTURED
FOOD & DRINKS
AND NEXT-GEN
AGRICULTURE

TECH BIOENGINEERING
CULTURED FOOD & DRINKS AND NEXT-GEN AGRICULTURE

Lab-Grown Meat Is Going Mainstream startup ecosystem. Israel is a global leader developed by Beyond Meat and Impossible Israeli company, has established a large-scale
There is growing interest in cultivated meat, in the cultured meat sector, with groups Foods, cell-based meat cultivation results in production facility in Denmark dedicated to
which is produced from animal cells in a lab like Aleph Farms, which got regulatory muscle tissue that is molecularly identical manufacturing cheese, yogurt, and ice cream.
or biomanufacturing plant, which offers an approval to sell cultured steaks, and Steak- to animals grown for our consumption—and Nestle and Danone, two of the world’s largest
environmentally friendly (and, let’s face it, holder Foods, which teamed up with Singa- in some cases, improved. Lab-grown meat food and beverage corporations, have been on
animal-friendly) alternative to traditional pore-based Umami Meats to produce fish also doesn’t require the hormones and anti- an acquisition spree, buying lab-grown dairy
meat production. Concerns about food secu- filets without contributing to the overfishing biotics used at conventional facilities. startups around the world. In the next few
rity underline this push into bloodless meat of declining fish stocks. On the infrastruc- years, the focus will be on scaling cultured
ture side, Turkey-based Biftek is working on Synthetic Milk and Cheese dairy operations and lowering costs of produc-
cultivation. Late in 2020, Singapore approved
a competitor to the slaughterhouse by allow- new technologies and serums to reduce the Synthetic milk is coming. It’s a promising tion. New Culture, which makes animal-free
ing a bioreactor—a high-tech vat for growing cost of lab-grown meat, and in Mexico, Micro substitute for cow’s milk, offering a similar cheeses for pizza that stretch, melt, and of
organisms—run by a US company to produce Meat creates technologies to scale up pro- taste, look, and texture that plant-based course, taste like what you’d find at your
cultured chicken nuggets for its residents. duction. In Israel, MeaTech uses 3D printing options like oat, nut, and soy milks don’t favorite local restaurant, upgraded its fermen-
The company, Eat Just, manufactured chicken to produce whole cuts of cell-based meat, match. Hailed as the milk of the future, tation process last year. It can produce 25,000
in bioreactors using cells taken from healthy, while Israel-based SuperMeat has developed synthetic milk is considered an eco-friendly pizzas’ worth of cheese in a single run.
live chickens. In 2023, the company opened what it calls a “crispy cultured chicken.” Sev- choice that could disrupt the dairy sector
eral startups are bringing cultured meat to and potentially disadvantage small-scale Precision Fermentation
a 30,000-square-foot facility in Singapore,
and its bioreactors now have the capacity market. Finless Foods, based in California, is dairy farmers. Synthetic cow’s milk is culti- Precision fermentation is an advanced version
to produce tens of thousands of pounds of developing cultured bluefin tuna meat, from vated by artificially reproducing the proteins of a very old technology: brewing. For hundreds
slaughter-free meat. By 2030, Eat Just plans the sought-after species now threatened by in casein and whey. Casein genes are added of years, it’s been used to multiply microbes
for cultured meat products to cost at or lower long-standing overfishing. Other companies, to yeast and other microflora to produce to create specific products, from beers to
the current price points for chicken, beef, and including Mosa Meat (in the Netherlands) proteins, which are purified and transformed medicines. Today, precision fermentation can
pork. Its successful entry into Singapore, a and Upside Foods (in California, formerly using plant-based fats and sugars. Perfect be used for a host of purposes. Food technol-
highly regulated country that’s also one of the known as Memphis Meats) are cultivating Day makes lab-grown dairy products—yogurt, ogists can use genome sequencing and gene
world’s most important innovation hotspots, meats in factory-scale labs. Unlike the exist- cheese, and ice cream—that are now sold in editing as part of a precision fermentation
is accelerating interest in cultured meat’s ing plant-based protein meat alternatives thousands of US grocery stores. Remilk, an process, which results in microbes engineered

TECH BIOENGINEERING
for specific purposes. For example, feeding process early to avoid creating alcohol, or Upgrading Photosynthesis
engineered microbes into a precisely tuned they let the beer ferment and then remove Genetically modifying crops with upgrades
fermenter could create synthetic coconut oil or the alcohol. Both methods tend to remove could dramatically increase crop yields with-
palm oil. Genetically altered microbes, which the hop aromas, which are important for out needing to increase the other resources
are already in use to produce plant-based meat making beer smell good. But biotech startup required for cultivation. Researchers are
substitutes, could soon form the basis for non- EvodiaBio seems to have found a solution. working on a number of projects that would
dairy cheeses. With more consumers seeking Its scientists developed a method to create increase photosynthesis—the biological
out vegan options and climate change impact- monoterpenoids, the compounds respon- process green plants and some organisms
ing dairy production, Nestle, Danone, Mars, sible for the hoppy flavor, and add them to use to harness sunlight to produce energy
General Mills, and Unilever are developing pre- beer after brewing, restoring the flavor that out of CO2 and water. Simply over-exposing
cision fermentation platforms to meet future usually gets lost. By using baker’s yeast cells plants to sunlight doesn’t have the same ef-
supply chain constraints and market needs. as tiny biofactories, the team can generate fect—more light can damage cells unless they
Precision fermentation can also produce new these hop aromas in fermenters, avoiding turn on a biological system called quenching
forms of stabilizers and preservatives. the waste of expensive hops that typically that’s capable of flushing out the excess en-
lose their flavor during the brewing process. ergy. On cloudy days, plans turn off quenching
Brewing Great Nonalcoholic Beers This approach not only enhances the taste to retain the excess energy, but the process
People are becoming more interested in of nonalcoholic beer but is also much more of turning quenching on and off is time-con-
healthier, more responsible ways of drink- eco-friendly compared to using tradition- suming, unpredictable, and inefficient. Scien-
ing, leading to a big increase in nonalcoholic al hops. For example, in the US, aroma hop tists hope that with genetic engineering, they
beers. But anyone who’s tried a nonalcoholic farming happens mainly on the West Coast— can speed up the quenching process, which
beer will be quick to complain that it doesn’t which means that anyone outside the area would lead to more efficient photosynthesis.
taste or smell as good as beer fermented the must rely on an extensive transportation In 2022, modified soybean plants were shown Bioluminescent Firefly petunias give off an eerie
traditional way: The beers typically lack the and refrigeration cold chain, not to mention to yield 20% more thanks to a jacked-up glow in the dark.
pungent, hoppy smell and can leave an odd the considerable amount of water needed photosynthesis system. Researchers are also
aftertaste. The reason has to do with how they for cultivation (about 2.7 tons of water to working on cowpeas and rice. Image credit: Light Bio
are made. Brewers either stop the brewing produce just 1 kilogram of hops).

TECH BIOENGINEERING

Faster Flowering wash away or evaporate. Healthy soil, full of resistance to flooding and drought. In 2017, the US, 91% of domestic corn production used
Using the CRISPR gene-editing tool, research- microbes like bacteria and fungi, naturally the Rodale Institute launched the Regen- these herbicide tolerant seeds. So, it’s under-
ers at the University of Georgia Warnell School supports plant growth by recycling nutri- erative Organic Certified program to start standable that people are wary of a new crop
of Forestry and Natural Resources and at ents, but chemicals can harm this balance. creating an official standard. It builds on the of GMOs. But the promise of supercharged
Franklin College of Arts and Sciences figured Synthetic biology offers a solution. Pivot Bio, USDA certified organic seal by adding soil foods enhanced to produce additional nutri-
out how to make trees mature faster. They a biotech company, has developed a way to health, animal welfare, and human rights ents—rather than modified to respond to a
used CRISPR to edit a flower repressor gene enhance a soil microbe’s ability to supply requirements. General Mills announced that particular fertilizer or pesticide—may change
and drastically shortened the time it takes a nitrogen directly to plants, offering a steady it would accelerate regenerative agriculture people’s minds. Biofortified foods are genet-
poplar tree to flower—from 10 years down to and environmentally friendly source of this by dedicating a million acres of farmland ically enhanced to provide a denser dose of
just three months. It would typically take the crucial nutrient throughout the growing sea- to it by 2030. Meanwhile, several brands, nutrients. California-based Fresh Del Monte
plant a year to develop the systems to even son without genetic modification from other including Patagonia, Timberland, Allbirds, created a pink pineapple that’s been modified
produce flowers, and the team engineered the organisms. Gucci, and Balenciaga, have launched efforts to have a higher level of lycopene, an antioxi-
plant to mature in just a few days. The prom- to promote regenerative agriculture. dant that gives peaches, tomatoes, and water-
Regenerative Agriculture melon their rosy hues. Early in 2024, the Purple
ise of this research is an accelerated time
Regenerative agriculture describes farm- A New Wave of Genetically Modified Foods Tomato, developed by Norfolk Plant Sciences,
frame for tree breeding, as well as to enhance
the natural defenses of trees from extreme ing and grazing practices that rebuild soil A recent Pew Research study showed that was approved to be marketed directly to home
heat, cold, and drought. organic matter and restore degraded soil most Americans see food using genetical- gardeners. It was the first time that genetical-
biodiversity. There’s a clear need for this ly modified organisms as worse for their ly modified foods were available to noncom-
A Return to Natural Farming—With Technology technology-led practice: Decades of using health than a food that has no genetic mercial producers in the US. The tomatoes
Farming faces a big challenge: how to provide chemicals, salt-based fertilizers, carbon modification at all, while just 7% see them are bright purple thanks to color genes from
plants with nitrogen to feed more people with- mining, and harsh insecticides deplete soil. as healthier than other foods. GMOs have a a snapdragon flower that were added to the
out harming the environment or reducing crop Planting multiple types of crops together, public perception problem because some of plant. They’re not only unusual looking, they
sizes. Nitrogen is essential but expensive, and rotating crops, cutting back on tilling, and the earliest modified crops (corn and soy- have high levels of anthocyanin, which has
the usual synthetic fertilizers cause pollution reducing reliance on harsh chemicals can beans) were genetically changed to tolerate antidiabetic, anticancer, anti-inflammatory,
and contribute to climate change. They’re revitalize depleted soil, leading to improved herbicides like glyphosate, which sells under antimicrobial, and anti-obesity effects and is
also not very reliable because they can easily yields, nutrient-rich crops, and improved the brand name Roundup, and last year in used to prevent cardiovascular diseases.

TECH BIOENGINEERING

CRISPR Animals Genetically Engineered Space Farming
CRISPR is making farmed animals bigger, Growing plants in space, on the moon, and
stronger, and (hopefully) healthier. Research- Mars is important for keeping astronauts
ers at Auburn University in Alabama intro- healthy and happy. NASA has been looking
duced a gene from alligators into catfish, not into this for years, focusing on building the
aiming to give the catfish alligator charac- right equipment to grow plants, choosing the
teristics, but rather to boost their ability to best types of plants for space nutrition, and
resist diseases. This is because alligators studying how plants react to being in space,
are exceptionally good at warding off infec- including how they interact with microbes. Re-
tions, and a slight increase in resilience could cent advances in gene-editing technology, like
significantly impact fish farming. Currently, CRISPR and other tools, have made it easier
about 40% of fish raised in farms globally to tweak plant genes for space needs. These
don’t survive until harvest, so reducing even a tools, along with new ways to deliver gene-ed-
fraction of this loss could be transformative. iting materials to plants and the use of big
Scientists in Japan used CRISPR to modify the data and machine learning to analyze plant
myostatin gene in red sea bream, resulting in genes, are opening up possibilities for creating
fish that are larger and heavier by about 17% plants that can thrive in space. Looking ahead,
compared to nonmodified fish, even though experts believe it’s crucial to focus on using
both groups were fed the same quantity of these technologies to develop plants that meet
food. Researchers have long experimented the specific needs of space missions, mak-
with CRISPR on animals, and so far have used ing space agriculture more sustainable and
it to create super-muscly pigs, cattle, sheep, effective. Space agriculture is quickly becom-
rabbits, and goats. But most animals did ing a multibillion-dollar industry. NASA and Researchers in China created double-muscled pigs by introducing a mutation into the pigs’ genetics that
not live past infancy, and, somewhat weirdly, Germany’s space agency are now investing in keeps the muscles developing beyond the point they would naturally. Note: this image is AI-generated, and
many developed unusually large tongues. a variety of space agricultural projects that does not show a live animal.
could someday support off-planet habitats.

TECH BIOENGINEERING
AGING, HEALTH,
AND BEAUTY

TECH BIOENGINEERING
AGING, HEALTH, AND BEAUTY

Cultivated Collagen Growing Blood go longer between treatments. After that, quick and relatively painless). Those cells are
Israel-based Aleph Farms has already brought For people who live with rare blood types researchers will set their sights on manufac- turned into stem cells, grown in a medium
cultured steak to market. Their next goal: (AB negative, AB positive, B negative) or who turing lab-grown blood for rare blood types that resembles what would exist in a human
cell-cultured collagen, which is part of a have blood disorders, acquiring blood for that don’t typically have large donor pools. womb, and developed into precursor sex cells,
broader strategy to replace the entire cow. surgery or a transfusion can mean the dif- which mature into sperm or stem cells. Then,
Growing Sex Cells once IVF kicks in, those cells are used to create
The company is developing a way to produce ference between life and death. For decades,
collagen directly from cow cells, avoiding the scientists have attempted to grow blood Last year, Dr. Katsuhiko Hayashi from Osaka an embryo. One or more of the healthiest em-
need to raise and harvest livestock. Tradition- cells in a lab at scale, but until recently, the University successfully created eggs from bryos are then implanted into the uterus and,
ally, collagen is derived by boiling cow hides process has failed to produce enough blood cells harvested from male mice, with the if all goes well, develop into a healthy, viable
and bones, a process used across various cells to make an impact. But late in 2022, eventual goal of developing new fertility fetus. The idea is that someday soon, couples
industries. Aleph Farms will use techniques scientists at the National Health Service treatments. The process begins with taking a suffering from infertility or individuals who
from its steak production, such as bovine cell Blood and Transplant in the UK announced skin cell from a male mouse and converting desire to have a baby without a partner would
sources and a growth medium free of ani- that they had grown red blood cells in a lab it into a stem cell, which has the potential to have access to a reliable fertility treatment.
mal components, to create different types of and successfully transfused them into a develop into various cell types. Since these
cells are male, they carry XY chromosomes. Human Trials of Synthetic Wombs
collagen that are identical to those found in living person, a world first. It took 500,000
nature. This cultivated collagen will include a stem cells to generate 50 billion red blood The team then removes the Y chromosome, Researchers at the Children’s Hospital of
full range of proteins found in the extracellu- cells, which then needed to develop. (In a replicates the X chromosome, and combines Philadelphia (CHOP) created an artificial womb
lar matrix, which makes up skin, bones, and healthy adult, 50 billion red blood cells rep- the two X chromosomes—a modification that called a biobag and used it to successfully
joints. There are other startups now working resents about 1% of their total blood volume.) enables the stem cell to develop into an egg. keep premature lambs alive and developing
on collagen cultivation, too. Jellatech, a North Last year, the same researchers transfused Hayashi’s work builds on groundbreaking re- normally for 28 days. Now, CHOP researchers
Carolina–based startup, created a full length, red blood cells that were grown in a lab into search from fellow Japanese scientist Shinya are seeking approval to begin the first human
triple helical, bio-identical and functional another person requiring that blood. This Yamanaka, who in 2006 showed that it was clinical trials for a device they’ve developed,
human collagen made from its proprietary technique is a pioneer in transferring lab- possible to make gametes derived from called the EXTra-uterine Environment for Neo-
cell line. grown cells to another person as a part of a human-induced pluripotent stem cells. Ya- natal Development, or EXTEND. The team has
blood transfusion. Going forward, patients manaka’s process includes harvesting cells clarified that this technology is not designed
who need regular blood transfusions could from a skin biopsy or blood sample (both or capable of supporting the full spectrum of

TECH BIOENGINEERING
development from conception to birth, but this treatment is for people who have already analyses to develop custom mRNA vaccines, hope to make accurate gene-based predic-
is intended to increase survival and improve developed a tumor.) Called mRNA-4359, the which encode protein-containing mutations tions about an individual’s future. SNPs are
outcomes for extremely premature babies by treatment contains a molecule that can relay unique to the tumor. The immune system important markers of genomic variants at a
replicating a natural womb environment. The instructions to cells. It works by directing uses those instructions to search and single base position in the DNA—and these
FDA is still working with independent advisers cells to produce proteins typically found on destroy similar cells throughout the body, single letter changes to our genetic code are
to determine regulatory and ethical consider- the surface of solid cancer tumors. Once which is similar to how the Covid vaccines contributors to conditions like diabetes. If
ations for synthetic wombs and ethical con- these proteins are made, they are introduced work. BioNTech is running clinical trials for SNPs were read in vitro, before embryos were
siderations for what human trials could look to the immune system, training it to recog- personalized vaccines for many cancers, implanted, they could reveal whether that ge-
like. Other teams around the world are devel- nize and attack cancer cells. including ovarian cancer, breast cancer, and netic combination had a higher probability of
oping similar devices, while bioethicists are melanoma. Moderna is developing similar developing diabetes or even heart disease. If
This vaccine is classified as a “universal”
working out the broader implications. What cancer vaccines and announced that its per- an embryo were edited using CRISPR, embryos
cancer vaccine, meaning it is premade and
if synthetic wombs aren’t available to low- sonalized cancer vaccine, when combined could also be optimized with the best possible
can be administered to patients with certain
er-income people? How might they factor into with Merck & Co.’s immunotherapy treat- traits, given the raw genetic material. Theoret-
types of cancer straight from the shelf. In
debates over reproductive rights? And what if, ment Keytruda, cut recurrence and risk of ically, parents could influence myriad traits
contrast, other mRNA cancer vaccines being
further in the future, they eliminate the need death of the most deadly skin cancer com- for their offspring, including hair texture,
developed are customized based on the indi-
for a person to carry a pregnancy at all? pared with immunotherapy treatment alone. resistance to a virus such as HIV, or protection
vidual patient’s cancer, such as a pancreatic
In the trial, the mRNA vaccine revved up the against Alzheimer’s disease. This intervention,
Universal Cancer Vaccines cancer vaccine that uses genetic material
immune response. like the gene drive edit to make mosquitos
from the patient’s own tumors for a more
Early in 2024, the first patient in the UK re- unable to transmit malaria, would have a
personalized approach. Upgrading Embryos Before Birth
ceived a dose of a cancer vaccine as part of permanent, heritable effect. It could eradi-
a larger clinical trial. Designed to treat sol- Long before they were making Covid vac- Researchers are developing a new tech- cate certain diseases passed from parents to
id-state tumor cancers, such as melanoma, cines, both Moderna and BioNTech were nique that might someday enable people children, and in the process improve the entire
this application of immunotherapy harness- researching immunotherapies for cancer. to optimize their children’s genes before gene pool.
es the immune system to fight cancer cells. After analyzing a tissue sample from a can- birth. Using algorithms to understand the
(“Vaccine” is a bit confusing here, since most cerous tumor, the companies ran genetic tiny variations in DNA—single nucleotide
vaccines are designed for prevention, while polymorphisms, or SNPs—these researchers

TECH BIOENGINEERING

Genetic Screening for Pregnancy aim to clarify that the FDA has the authority cal research projects last year. This extensive
Genetic screening tests promise a kind of to regulate the noninvasive prenatal tests collection of sequences offers an invaluable
prenatal fortune-telling: Many companies developed and used by individual laborato- tool for exploring the genetic foundations
say they can predict the health outcomes of ries. These tests have rapidly evolved from of human health and various diseases. Labs
growing embryos. California-based MyOme niche laboratory trials to a major indus- worldwide have the opportunity to access
and New Jersey–based LifeView use the ge- try; over a third of pregnant women in the these data sets, with the UK Biobank having
netic sequences of parents, along with cells US receive a simple blood test in the first granted approval to over 30,000 researchers
retrieved during a biopsy, to generate an trimester to check for fetal genetic abnor- from around 90 countries to date. Scientists
embryo’s entire genome. Next, they use algo- malities. While these tests are highly reliable have published more than 9,000 peer-re-
rithms to calculate the probabilities of cer- for detecting common genetic conditions viewed studies using Biobank data, investi-
tain ailments. Couples going through fertility such as Down syndrome, the accuracy of gating genetic influences on a range of con-
treatments have a limited number of embryos newer tests for rare abnormalities is often ditions and traits, including Alzheimer’s risk,
to choose from and would be able to select questionable, frequently producing incorrect heart disease, personality traits, and even
the embryos they like based on those results. positive results. Such inaccuracies can lead sexual orientation—though that last one has
Other startups offer to calculate scores and to significant anxiety for expectant parents, sparked debate. Whole genome analysis, un-
optimize for other genetic traits such as sometimes prompting unnecessary and like exome studies, lets scientists examine
height and intelligence. LifeView provides costly follow-up procedures. Under the new associations between traits and rare genetic
genetic report cards to would-be parents: they FDA oversight, the marketing and availability variations in both the protein-coding and
deliver a report showing whether the embryo of such tests would require government ap- noncoding segments of the genome. While
has the right number of chromosomes, risk proval, especially for tests considered “high it’s understood that noncoding regions
assessment grades for heart attacks, certain risk” because they could influence critical play roles in gene regulation among other
cancers, diabetes and more. medical decisions. functions, much about their contribution
Soon, it may be possible to upgrade embryos before
to human biology remains to be discovered. birth using new biotechnology techniques.
Genetic screening is a booming market in the Biobank Releases The expansion of this data set should drive
US—and last year, the FDA moved to regulate The UK Biobank made 500,000 genome se- significant breakthroughs in the near future. Image credit: Future Today Institute and Dall-E.
prenatal testing. The proposed regulations quences available to scientists for biomedi-

TECH BIOENGINEERING

Microbiome Metrics at Home Age Reversal Labs is developing biological reprogramming lytic drugs, the treated mice showed a 65%
The human microbiome is a mini-universe of As we age, while our DNA sequence might technology. In 2022, Altos, which raised a greater increase in a myelin-rebuilding protein
the genetic materials living on and inside our stay constant, chemical changes do occur. staggering $3 billion in funding over just compared to untreated mice. This finding
bodies, inherited from our gestational moth- Observing those changes could lead to new one round, announced a partnership with the indicates that removing senescent cells could
ers. It’s vast: there are 200 times more genes techniques to halt or even reverse age-relat- Center for iPS Cell Research and Application improve myelin repair, and could mean that
in the bacteria, fungi, protozoa, and viruses ed disease. Columbia University research- at Japan’s Kyoto University to study cellular senolytic drugs offer a new treatment strategy
that make up our microbiomes than in the hu- ers discovered that it might be possible to rejuvenation programming. for MS, particularly in its progressive stage—if
man genome. That microbiome weighs nearly record and store information about cells as it works in humans as well as it does mice,
Removing Zombie Cells which for now is a big if. But if human trials
5 pounds, and it lives mostly in your gut and they age. The technique, a sort of biological
on your skin. Microbiomes differ greatly from DVR, uses the CRISPR-Cas system over a pe- Senescent cells are damaged cells that stop show promising results, it is plausible that
person to person, even if you’re comparing sib- riod of days. In the future, if we can quantify functioning but don’t die, accumulating in senolytic drugs could be developed to treat
lings who live in the same city. How well you aging at a cellular level, we might be able to the body like cellular zombies—and they’re a host of diseases and ailments, along with
digest lactose, how vulnerable you are to skin reverse it. Synthetic biologist George Church linked to aging. But scientists are research- conditions associated with aging.
cancer, how well you sleep, your probability of and a team at Harvard’s Wyss Institute coming the use of senolytic drugs, which remove
these worn-out immune cells, as a way to Skin Care and Beauty
developing anxiety or becoming obese—all of bined three different gene therapies related
these traits are linked to the microbiome and to cellular decay into a single compound. The treat diseases like multiple sclerosis. In Synthetic biology–derived compounds are
influenced by what you eat and drink, whether intent: reverse obesity and diabetes while MS, the immune system attacks the myelin producing improved ingredients in skin care
you smoke, what chemicals your body comes also improving kidney and heart function. sheath around nerves, and while it’s charac- products. Amyris, one of the first commercial
into contact with, and what medications you Remarkably, the technique seemed to work terized by phases of relapse and recovery, it synthetic biology companies, created a suite
take. Data about your microbiome used to be (in mice, at least). Maybe that’s why last year can eventually progress into a phase where of products developed with biosynthesis to
collected over several visits to an allergist, but there were so many funding and partnership symptoms continuously worsen without pe- create squalene, a key antioxidant found
today, at-home tests can determine its genetic announcements in the field. The Saudi royal riods of remission. In older animals, myelin in moisturizers. Bay Area startup Geltor is
makeup. Some companies will mix together family launched the Hevolution Foundation, damage leads to lots of senescent cells. But engineering animal-free collagen for use in
special probiotic compounds to mitigate con- a not-for-profit with an annual budget of $1 when researchers at Georgetown University serums and creams, designed to plump skin
ditions or optimize the symbiotic relationship billion to support basic research on the bi- injected older mice with a toxin to damage and reduce the appearance of fine lines and
your body has with all those microorganisms. ology of aging. Meanwhile, the startup Altos myelin and then treated some with seno- wrinkles. Conventional collagen is usual-

TECH BIOENGINEERING
ly drawn from bovine sources, but modern microbiota had 50% more bacterial species & Melinda Gates Foundation as one of its
bioengineering means it can be grown in a than those in the West today. Unlike those investors. The American Gastroenterological
lab. Skin care brand Algenist uses bio-fer- tribes, we no longer hunt and eat wild flora Association and OpenBiome will track 4,000
mented microalgae in its antiaging products, and fauna. Those from wealthier countries patients over 10 years to learn about fecal
and it developed alguronic acid that makes now eat very little dietary fiber, a limited microbiomes.
skin look more youthful. One Ocean Beauty, variety of fruits and vegetables, and only four
founded by former Burberry Beauty President species of livestock: sheep, poultry, cattle, Optimizing Recreational Drugs
Marcella Cacci, produces a bio-fermented ex- and pigs. Worse, widespread use of antibiot- When it comes to recreational drugs like
opolysaccharide isolated from brown kelp, an ics in farm animals—used not necessarily to marijuana, genetic factors can determine
elasticity-promoting glycoprotein, and a blue prevent disease but to increase weight gain whether someone feels pleasantly relaxed or
light-repellant microorganism—all from cells and therefore the volume of meat available— anxious and listless. New diagnostic tests
found naturally in the ocean. means that we’re ingesting compounds that promise to optimize recreational drugs for
are helping to destroy our own microbiomes. someone’s unique genetic profile. Atai Life
Improving Gut Biomes Humans are complex, composite organ- Sciences NV, based in Berlin, is researching
A mass extinction event is happening right isms, made up of layers and layers of cells. genetics, depression, and small molecules
now in our guts and in the environment. The Researchers now think that our gut micro- within cells in an effort to repurpose psyche-
widespread use of antibiotics, along with biome is directly linked to our metabolism, delics as therapies for depression and PTSD.
diets rich in processed foods, have led to a our immune systems, our central nervous MindMed in New York is developing a plat-
staggering decline of microorganisms inside systems, and even the cognitive functions form to help patients determine which drugs
the people and animals living in wealthy na- inside our brains. It’s an inherited problem: to take—therapeutics based on MDMA and
tions. During the past 12,000 years of human Most of our microbiomes come to us from DMT—depending on genetics and other data.
evolution, we’ve shifted nature’s balance—our our mothers as we pass through the birth
Scientists are learning more every day about the
diets are now relatively narrow, compared to canal. A number of researchers are now look- relationship between our gut microbes and our
our far-distant ancestors. Recently, scientists ing at the future of our microbiomes. Vedan- bodies.
studied modern hunter-gatherer tribes in Tan- ta Biosciences is making gut bacteria that
zania, Peru, and Venezuela, and found their can be turned into drugs and counts the Bill Image credit: Future Today Institute and Dall-E.

TECH BIOENGINEERING
CLIMATE AND
SUSTAINABILITY

TECH BIOENGINEERING
CLIMATE AND SUSTAINABILITY

eDNA Detection al forest with conifers, black geese, horse- ments could make forestry more sustainable Now, an emerging synthetic biology process
Environmental DNA, or eDNA, is genetic ma- shoe crabs, lemmings, and mastodons—a and efficient, offering new economic and offers a new solution. France-based Carbios
terial found in the environment. Feces and fur natural wonderland unlike any in existence environmental benefits. developed a process using an enzyme that’s
from animals, as well as hair and saliva from today. especially good at breaking down PET plastic
Better Plastics Recycling into its basic building blocks, making it possi-
humans are just some of the organic matter
Using CRISPR for Sustainable Wood Despite global efforts to recycle plastic prod- ble to recycle PET into high-quality new plastic.
found in soil, seawater, snow, and air. As a
Production
fish moves through water, it’s continuously ucts, there are numerous barriers: Consum- After improving the enzyme and testing it in
shedding bits of itself. Likewise, when a cyclist Trees are a valuable natural resource, but er-facing plastics come in different varieties, an industrial setting, Carbios is now building
rides on a trail, her sweat, mucus, and dead improving their wood through traditional they’re often coated with labels or print, and its first site dedicated to this bio-recycling
skin cells wind up mixed into the gravel and breeding is slow and complicated due to their they have colors and other added features. process. Meanwhile, researchers at SLAC Na-
dirt. These fragments of nuclear or mitochon- complex genetics. CRISPR technology offers The mess of waste—used iPhone cases, emp- tional Accelerator Laboratory and the National
drial DNA can reveal invaluable insights about a way to quickly change trees to improve ty shampoo containers, soda bottles—can’t Renewable Energy Laboratory used a microp-
an environment. Scientists from the United their wood—optimizing it for paper-making or be easily managed at scale, so a lot of it piles orous material called a zeolite that contains
States Geological Survey and the Monterey Bay reduced carbon emissions, for example. Sci- up. A potential solution is microorganisms cobalt nanoparticles as a catalyst to break
Aquarium Research Institute are developing entists have used CRISPR to change multiple like some bacteria and fungi that use spe- down different polymer molecules, turning
a new mobile eDNA sampler that can float genes in poplar trees, resulting in wood that’s cial enzymes to break down various types of the majority into propane. At the University of
through rivers and streams, collecting materi- easier to process and better for the environ- plastics. But turning plastic into something Texas at Austin, researchers used a machine
al and detecting pathogens or invasive species ment. This breakthrough means we can now these microbes can eat isn’t as simple as learning model to generate novel mutations to
autonomously. As detection systems advance, grow trees that are more suited for our needs just mixing them together. The plastics need natural enzymes that allow bacteria to break
eDNA detection will serve as early warning while also helping the planet. The key chal- to be pre-damaged by sunlight or chemicals, down the plastics found in soda bottles and
systems for potential outbreaks. But there’s lenge has been dealing with lignin, a natural and the microbes need just the right condi- most consumer packaging. The enzyme, called
another interesting use for eDNA: reconstruct- part of wood that’s tough to break down. But tions to do their work. Even so, each type of FAST-PETase (functional, active, stable, and
ing ancient ecosystems. Scientists excavated by precisely editing genes related to lignin, microbe can only eat certain plastics, and tolerant PETase), could operate efficiently and
eDNA from frozen soil in the Arctic desert, and researchers at North Carolina State University it can take them weeks or months to break work at an industrial scale. The first real-world
were able to piece together a lost world nearly have created poplar trees with wood that’s down just a small amount. application: setting the enzyme loose to clean
2 million years old. The eDNA revealed a coast- much easier to turn into fiber. These advance- up landfills.

TECH BIOENGINEERING

Engineering Plants for Carbon Capture 30% of their body weight is excess energy— veloped silks that are stronger, tougher, and
Carbon dioxide is the undisputed culprit stored CO2 and nitrogen. These microbes lighter than previous versions, with an eight-
when it comes to climate change. But what if then get mixed into soil, and release all that fold increase in yield. This innovation could
we could just suck it out of the air? Trees do nitrogen near the roots of plants, acting as provide an eco-friendly alternative to tradi-
that naturally, but with deforestation, there’s an organic fertilizer. At that point, they also tional textiles, drastically reducing waste
not enough to make a sizable impact. The release the CO2, yet it remains trapped un- in the fashion industry. The engineered
Salk Institute’s Harnessing Plants Initiative is derground. The result: enormous crop yields silk, combining mussel foot proteins with
working on an innovative approach that relies without the environmentally poisonous side spider silk properties, has already reached
on our existing carbon storage mechanisms effects typically associated with chemical production levels sufficient for real-world
to help solve climate change. It’s developing fertilizers. product testing, marking a significant step
engineered crops that can store more carbon toward its commercial use. Already, several
Greening Fashion other successful trials of synthesized tex-
in the ground for long periods of time. The
crops have a larger root mass, are deeper, The textile and clothing industry is a noto- tiles have occurred: Bolt Threads developed
and contain more suberin, a plant tissue that rious polluter but is making steps toward a synthetic fabric called Microsilk that’s
already relies on CO2 and can store signifi- more sustainable practices. Fuzhong Zhang, engineered from spider DNA, and Japanese
cant amounts without causing harm to the a professor at Washington University in startup Spiber synthesized enough fibers to
plant. Salk researchers are hoping to develop St. Louis, has advanced the production of manufacture a limited-edition parka. While
strains of rice, wheat, corn, and other plants synthetic spider silk, which could lead to manufacturing new textiles is on the hori-
that both produce edible crops and store car- sustainable clothing manufacturing. Using zon, getting bio-sourced materials such as
bon, for improved soil health. Meanwhile, an synthetic biology, his team created a process PHAs, spider silk, and chitosan into the sup-
artificial leaf developed at Harvard harnesses to yield more silk from microbes, aiming ply chain process remains a challenge. Mills
solar energy. When connected to a strain of to meet the fashion industry’s demand for and manufacturers don’t have incentives to
The Salk Institute’s Harnessing Plants Initiative is
bacteria, it converts atmospheric CO2 and renewable materials and reduce the envi- risk using new materials that may not work working on an innovative approach that relies on
nitrogen into organic forms that can benefit ronmental impact associated with clothing seamlessly with their existing production our existing carbon storage mechanisms to help
living organisms. Those hungry, solar-fed bac- production. By incorporating a protein from equipment. solve climate change.
teria essentially overeat, to the point where a common shellfish—mussels—the team de-
Image credit: Salk Institute.

TECH BIOENGINEERING

De-Extincting Lost Species Rewilding Barren Terrains bison were released in a woodland near Can- disease. There have now been several pilots
Woolly mammoths were once a “keystone Rewilding is a direct human intervention terbury—the hope is that over time, the her- around the world to edit mosquitoes so they
species,” one that other species in the eco- into nature using technology and science, bivores will revitalize a stretch of southeast no longer carry malaria. In 2021, biotech com-
system depended on in many ways for stabil- a holistic approach to conservation that England and allow vegetation to grow again, pany Oxitec launched a controversial field test
ity. They stomped around in herds, knocking focuses on restoring the natural phenom- which should in turn boost biodiversity. of specially engineered mosquitoes in Flori-
down trees and packing down snow layers ena of wilderness ecosystems, providing da in a move toward reducing the spread of
CRISPR Mosquitoes deadly diseases such as dengue, yellow fever,
as they searched for dead grasses to eat, and connective corridors between wild spaces,
that helped keep the permafrost layer stable. and reintroducing keystone species to their Gene-drive technology, which has the po- and the Zika virus. Its tiny capsules contain
Once the mammoths and other large grazing natural habitats. A term coined more than 30 tential to spread antimalarial genes among an engineered form of the Aedes aegypti
animals stopped compacting the snow and years ago, “rewilding” has gained renewed mosquito populations, is showing prom- mosquito, called OX5034. Because only female
eating dead grasses, the ecosystem began to attention in the past few years as the cli- ise. Malaria kills hundreds of thousands of Aedes aegypti bite and spread disease, Oxitec
change: The snow melted more easily, which mate crisis has grown more dire and new people every year; 96% of the deaths are in engineered males to pass on a gene that kills
allowed the sun to reach the permafrost. The technologies have promised to protect and African countries, and particularly impact female offspring before they mature. Male
permafrost layer is now melting at an alarm- rehabilitate ecosystems. In 2017, research- children under age 5. The idea of gene drive, offspring then continue mating and passing
ing rate and releasing greenhouse gasses into ers plunged into the waters off Lizard Island which uses special DNA pieces that copy on the altered gene, which should change the
the atmosphere, which creates a vicious cycle: on the northeastern coast of Australia with themselves and spread quickly through an population of disease-carrying mosquitoes.
Hotter temperatures lead to more melting, some unexpected equipment in tow—a set organism’s genes, was thought of years ago. The US Environmental Protection Agency
which releases more gasses, which causes of underwater loudspeakers. Their destina- However, it had problems because these said this pilot poses no human threat, while
hotter temperatures, and on and on it goes. Re- tion was a coral reef that had been all but DNA pieces could end up in important parts local authorities, who have been dealing with
searchers are helping to de-extinct the woolly abandoned by a once-thriving population of the genes and cause harm. CRISPR-Cas9 steadily growing cases of dengue fever and
mammoth and other species using synthetic of sea life. The researchers hoped that by technology, which allows for precise genetic West Nile virus, hope that a smaller mosqui-
biology techniques: Starting with a fully intact broadcasting the telltale sounds of a healthy edits, enables the safe transfer of antimalar- to population will curb the diseases without
healthy cell from a closely related species and reef, they might lure back some of its vital ial genes from one generation of mosquitos insecticides or poisonous chemicals. The EPA
working backward, with genetic fragments inhabitants. Remarkably, it worked. This to the next. This advancement offers hope later approved an expanded plan to release
from preserved specimens, they could develop experiment was a unique instance of rewild- for controlling malaria by genetically modi- 2.4 million genetically engineered mosquitoes
a version of the animals that once existed. ing, but there have been others. In 2022, four fying mosquitoes to resist or eliminate the in more US sites, including California. Similar

TECH BIOENGINEERING
experiments are underway in Malaysia and permafrost frozen. The permafrost acts as
Panama. While they can transmit malaria, re- a natural time capsule, preserving not only
searchers are also thinking about how to use viruses but also extinct animals, which
engineered mosquitoes to deliver a defense scientists have been able to study. The rapid
against deadly viruses. What if in the future warming of the Arctic threatens to disrupt
mosquitoes are flying syringes capable of de- this frozen archive, with temperatures there
livering vaccines? University of Washington rising up to four times faster than the global
scientists are working on a weakened form average. Research into “zombie viruses”
of malaria-causing Plasmodium parasites found in Siberian permafrost has shown that
that won’t get people sick but will cause the some of these viruses are still infectious,
body to create antibodies. On the other hand, which could mean a potential future risk of
could meddling in the genetic code of in- outbreaks from ancient pathogens. Global
sects, reptiles, and animals have catastrophic warming and increased activity in the region
consequences that no one anticipates? If that could heighten the possibility of a spillover
sounds familiar, it’s because you’ve seen that event. Scientists advocate for proactive
movie before: “Jurassic Park.” surveillance and research to understand the
risks posed by thawing permafrost and to
Reviving Ancient Viruses mitigate the impact of climate change on
As the Arctic warms, the thawing perma- the release of pathogens.
frost is raising concerns about the release of
ancient viruses that could pose health risks
to animals and humans. Scientists highlight
the potential danger of these long-dormant
viruses, along with the release of chemical As the permafrost layer melts, ancient viruses could thaw and release pathogens harmful to the
and radioactive waste from the Cold War modern world.
era, emphasizing the importance of keeping
Image credit: Image credit: Future Today Institute and Dall-E.

TECH BIOENGINEERING
REGULATION
AND POLICY

TECH BIOENGINEERING
REGULATION AND POLICY

Regulatory Changes Toward Genome-Edited we’ve seen already, biology has a tendency to produced a 3D image of a potential suspect dispatched workers, who often had no medical
Crops
replicate and evolve in unpredictable ways. based on the DNA evidence—not a real photo- training, to vans or small tents to administer
Starting last year, countries have been reeval- The developments in China and the EU reflect graph but a predicted appearance including PCR or rapid response tests. It wasn’t immedi-
uating their regulatory stance on genome-ed- an urgent global need to update and reform skin tone, eye and hair color, and other facial ately clear where the test results would be sent,
ited crops, marking a significant change in regulatory frameworks for genome-edited features. The company even incorporated a or who might also gain access to the data. With
agricultural biotechnology policies. China’s crops, driven by a desire to foster innovation haircut and mustache based on a witness’ the growing size and scale of third-party test
recent safety assessment guidelines for while ensuring safety and maintaining public description, not the DNA. In a move to gather results and genetic databases, anyone with the
these crops show a partial shift from tradi- confidence. As countries continue to adapt public tips, the police department released right skills could identify individuals—and we
tional regulations on genetically modified their policies, further changes will shape the this generated face, leading (unsurprisingly) don’t yet have safeguards against widespread
organisms, signaling a move toward a more future of agricultural biotechnology, poten- to controversy. In 2020, more controversy genetic surveillance. As of the start of 2024,
nuanced approach that seeks to balance tially making genome-edited crops more ensued when a detective requested to run there are few restrictions on private companies
scientific innovation with public trust. Last accessible and widely used across the globe. the DNA-based facial reconstruction through buying and selling genetic data in the US and
July, the European Commission proposed facial recognition software, a move consid- in many places around the world.
legislative changes to relax the rules on gene Regulating DNA Recognition Systems ered problematic by civil liberties experts and
editing, suggesting a departure from stringent Can you produce a photo of someone’s face against Parabon NanoLabs’ policies. But while Safeguarding Genetic Privacy
GMO laws for certain next-generation tech- solely from their DNA? In the US, police de- this was one of the first known instances of Genetic privacy will be increasingly difficult
niques. This proposed legislation argues that tectives used a DNA sample to generate a 3D a police department using this tactic, the to safeguard—yet big genetic data sets are
edits achievable through traditional breeding model of a suspect’s face using facial recog- question of how and when to use someone’s required to perform the kind of research that
methods should not be subject to the same nition tools. Detectives from California’s East DNA is increasingly common. The COVID-19 leads to new therapeutics. Sharing a person’s
stringent regulations as GMOs, streamlining Bay Regional Park District Police Department pandemic accelerated widespread use of complete genetic code online can help scien-
the approval process for these innovations. decided to use genetic information from a infectious disease surveillance techniques, tists but also poses privacy risks, as people
Still, more complex modifications involving 1990 cold case involving the death of Maria from saliva tests at airports and border cross- with bad intentions might use it to learn about
foreign DNA would still fall under existing GMO Jane Weidhofer to create a lead. They sent the ings, to nasal swabbing at testing centers. To the health of an individual or their family.
regulations, maintaining a layer of oversight DNA from the crime scene to Parabon Nano- ease testing bottlenecks, which sometimes Recently, experts have started using AI to
on more radical genetic alterations. Howev- Labs, which specializes in generating faces resulted in hours-long lines, alternative generate artificial, but scientifically useful, ge-
er, there is still no global framework, and as from DNA. Using machine learning, Parabon testing centers opened up: Private companies netic data that keeps people’s identities safe.

TECH BIOENGINEERING
REGULATION AND POLICY
Scientists at the University of Tartu, Estonia, synthetic eggs and sperm or grown in arti- National DNA Drives without clear consent and raising concerns
use neural networks to develop novel seg- ficial wombs, challenging society’s current Several countries are in the process of de- over privacy and human rights violations. As
ments on human genomes. Because genetic ideas about procreation and parenthood. In veloping their own national DNA databases, China builds a vast and unparalleled genetic
data is sensitive, the hope is that an artificial the UK, regulators are considering reforms notably for the purpose of medical research database, encompassing both minority groups
human genome will allow researchers to study to make surrogacy simpler and to address advancement. The United Arab Emirates is and the majority Han Chinese population, it
DNA without infringing on anyone’s privacy. the issue of commercial surrogacy, which is currently working to sequence its entire pop- faces minimal domestic opposition to its ge-
Researchers at the University of Montpellier technically illegal but practiced in a gray area. ulation; the goal is to aid scientific research, netic research and surveillance practices, con-
in France developed a novel method that uses One controversial proposal is to allow surro- as well as to map and sequence the genes of trasting with the ongoing debates over genetic
both AI and known information about how gacy without a genetic link between the child UAE nationals, which will assist in prevent- privacy in the US, Canada, the EU, and the UK.
genes change in our bodies to work with big and the commissioning parents, which raises ing and treating chronic illnesses. Because
data sets more easily. They cut genetic data questions about whether this constitutes as- International Collaborations to Advance
existing databases are overwhelmingly made
Bioengineering
from thousands of people from different back- sisted reproduction or a form of adoption. The up of Caucasian Americans and Europeans,
grounds into pieces, based on where genes reforms also consider granting commission- people of Arab descent have been exclud- Researchers are building the first-ever com-
often mix during reproduction, and used it to ing parents full parental rights from birth, ed from the benefits of genetic research. prehensive map of all 37.2 trillion human cells
train the AI system. It now creates artificial moving away from the surrogate’s default While the UAE’s program is voluntary, there in the body. The effort includes 130 software
populations of genetic data that are diverse parental rights. These discussions highlight is a different strategy being used in China. engineers, mathematicians, computational
and realistic but don’t risk anyone’s privacy. the tension between the desire for genetic Over the last decade, China has launched a scientists, biologists, clinicians, and physicists
parenthood and reproductive freedom, espe- comprehensive national effort to collect, se- hailing from Israel, the Netherlands, Japan, the
Defining Parenthood cially in cases where a biological connection quence, and store the genetic information of UK, the US, and Sweden. Although a cell atlas
The relationship between creating a child and to the child does not exist. Such debates will its citizens, integrating DNA databases into has long been theorized, new biological tools
being the parent of that child is becoming become increasingly relevant with the intro- a broader surveillance system fueled by the and more powerful computers have turned this
more complex due to advances in reproductive duction of technologies like ectogenesis, po- government’s ambitions in artificial intelli- one-time vision into a reality. These scientists
technology and changes in the law. Emerg- tentially redefining what it means to “make” gence. This initiative has particularly targeted believe this mapping will give the medical
ing technologies like induced pluripotent a baby and become a parent. the Uyghur population, under the guise of community a new way of understanding how
stem cells (see: Growing Sex Cells trend) will public health programs like “Physicals for our bodies work and will help diagnose, moni-
someday allow children to be conceived with All,” leading to the collection of genetic data tor, and treat disease.

TECH BIOENGINEERING
ETHICS,
TRUST AND
ACCEPTANCE

TECH BIOENGINEERING
ETHICS, TRUST AND ACCEPTANCE

Resolving Bias in Genome Research reason why can be traced back to how mem- to another problem: The pool of genetic data ing and freezing their sperm, hoping for the
Overwhelmingly, the majority of people who bers of the Havasupai tribe were treated by in the US doesn’t include Indigenous peoples. possibility of conceiving a child in the future.
have had their genomes sequenced come from Arizona State University (ASU) in the late 20th New initiatives could make genetic datasets As a previously rare procedure, PSR required a
affluent Caucasian Americans and Europeans; century. In 1990, Havasupai were grappling and research more inclusive. The Summer In- family court order in Israel for unmarried men,
fewer than 2% are from Africa. This excludes with an increase in diabetes. They allowed ternship for Indigenous Peoples in Genomics while the spouse of a married individual could
an enormous number of people from the ASU researchers to collect blood samples, trains budding scientists, while the Center for directly request the procedure. But the crisis
benefits of genetic research, so there is now hoping the research would help them eradi- the Ethics of Indigenous Genomic Research led to Israel’s Ministry of Health easing regula-
increased attention and funding to diversify cate the disease. But then, unbeknownst to works to promote Indigenous-led research in tions, allowing hospitals to process requests
this pool. H3Africa works with African investi- the Havasupai, the researchers changed the biobanking and precision medicine. Canada from parents without court involvement. It also
gators to determine genomic and environmen- scope of the project to encompass genetic and New Zealand are both working on gov- brought PSR into mainstream view, raising
tal determinants of common diseases. The markers for alcoholism and various mental erning frameworks and libraries to include questions about whether it is ethical to retrieve
Non-Communicable Diseases Genetic Heritage disorders. They went on to publish many Indigenous peoples, relying on direction from and use sperm after death.
Study consortium, based in Nigeria, is creating papers in academic journals highlighting local communities.
their results, which led to news stories about Gene Editing Ethics
a comprehensive catalog of human genetic
inbreeding and schizophrenia among tribe Posthumous Sperm Retrieval In 2018, Chinese scientist He Jiankui caused
variation among Nigerians. A decade-long
Three Million African Genomes project is also members. The Havasupai were, understand- In the wake of the Hamas terrorist attack on a global uproar by announcing he had created
underway to locate missing genetic variants ably, horrified and humiliated, and they filed October 7, 2023, when hundreds of young the world’s first gene-edited children using
from ancestral genomes in Africa. It would a lawsuit against ASU in 2004. ASU eventually men were among the Israelis who lost their CRISPR technology, targeting embryos to make
build an African biobank of clinical informa- settled the suit in 2010, returned the blood lives, there was an unprecedented surge in them resistant to HIV. This led to the birth of
tion and could lead to a more equitable future samples to the tribe, and promised not to requests for posthumous sperm retrieval twins, marking a controversial milestone in
of genetic research. publish any more research. Subsequently, (PSR) by embryologists and IVF special- genetic editing. Jiankui’s actions, deemed
the Navajo Nation, the second-largest group ists. This process involves retrieving viable “illegal medical practices” in China, resulted
Ethics in Indigenous Genomics of Indigenous peoples in the US, banned all sperm from the deceased’s testicular tis- in a three-year prison sentence for him and
Biological materials from Indigenous peoples genetic sequencing, analysis, and related re- sue shortly after death and preserving it in his two associates, partly because the genetic
are still missing from genetic databases, search on its members. Although their objec- liquid nitrogen. Families sought to preserve alterations could be passed down to future
basic research, and clinical studies. One major tions were absolutely warranted, they’ve led their loved one’s genetic legacy by extract- generations. Following the scandal, China

TECH BIOENGINEERING
ETHICS, TRUST AND ACCEPTANCE
tightened regulations on human gene editing pool would be a crime against human dignity immune responses. The team plans to further
and banned He from conducting any repro- and human rights. But all those declarations their research by transforming these mod-
ductive technology services. Despite these were made before it was actually possible to ified cells into blood-making cells to help
restrictions, late in 2023, He proposed a new precisely engineer the germ line. Now, with humans survive acute radiation sickness,
study focused on editing mouse and human CRISPR, it is possible. suggesting additional benefits in protecting
embryos to investigate potential protection against diseases such as cancer and dia-
against Alzheimer’s disease, citing the ur- Engineering Super Soldiers betes. The experiment was deemed legal as
gent need to address the challenges posed by Last year, a team of military medical sci- it was conducted on cultured cell lines in a
an aging population and the current lack of entists in China reported that they had lab. But what happens when that research is
effective treatments for Alzheimer’s. His latest enhanced human embryonic stem cells’ ready to leave the lab for the real world?
proposal has reignited ethical debates and resistance to radiation by inserting a gene
concerns within the scientific community. The from the water bear, a microorganism known
proposal’s reception remains mixed, reflect- for its extreme survivability. Using CRISPR
ing ongoing dilemmas over the boundaries of technology, they achieved a high survival rate
genetic research. of these modified cells under lethal radiation
exposure. The research, led by professor Yue
A dozen countries have now banned germ line
Wen at the Academy of Military Sciences in
engineering in humans, though their ranks
Beijing, has sparked interest (read: alarm)
do not include China, which tightened regula-
since its publication, because of the impli-
tions without banning the practice outright.
cation: What if this is used to create a new
Federal law in the US regulates the use of
version of superhumans, capable of surviv-
federal funds for research on human germline
ing extreme conditions like nuclear fallout?
gene therapy—laws are notoriously politicized Some researchers are concerned that biological ex-
Scientists around the world raised concerns perimentation could someday produce supersoldiers
and have changed a few times in the past
about the safety and ethical implications who have been enhanced with special capabilities.
decade. The EU’s Convention on Human Rights
of transferring genes across species, with
and Biomedicine said tampering with the gene Image credit: Image credit: Future Today Institute
the risk of harmful mutations or unknown
and Dall-E.

TECH BIOENGINEERING
AUTHORS &
CONTRIBUTORS

TECH BIOENGINEERING
AMY WEBB Managing Director

Chief Executive Officer MELANIE SUBIN
Recognized as the global leader in strategic fore- Amy also serves as a professor of strategic foresight at New York University’s Stern Creative Director
sight, Amy Webb advises business leaders through School of Business, where she developed and teaches the MBA-level strategic fore- EMILY CAUFIELD
disruptive change, enabling them to navigate an sight course with live case studies. She is a Visiting Fellow at Oxford University’s Säid
unpredictable future with confidence and take School of Business. She was elected a life member of the Council on Foreign Relations Editor
actions that address global challenges, create and is a member of the Bretton Woods Committee. She is a Steward and Steering ERICA PETERSON
sustainable value, and ensure a company’s long-term growth. As founder and CEO of Committee Member for the World Economic Forum, a founding member of the Forum’s
the Future Today Institute, Amy pioneered a unique quantitative modeling approach Strategic Foresight Council, a member of the Forum’s Risk Advisory Council, and serves Copy Editor
and data-driven foresight methodology that identifies signals of change and emerg- on the Forum’s Global Futures Council. She was a Delegate on the former U.S.-Russia SARAH JOHNSON
ing patterns very early. Using that information, Amy and her colleagues identify white Bilateral Presidential Commission, representing US interests in technology.
spaces, opportunities, and threats early enough for action. They develop predictive
Regarded as one of the most important voices on the futures of technology (with spe- CHERYL COONEY
scenarios, along with executable strategy, for their global client base. In 2023, Amy
cializations in both AI and synthetic biology), Amy is the author of four books, including
was recognized as the #4 most influential management thinker in the world by
the international bestseller The Big Nine and her most recent, The Genesis Machine,
Thinkers50, a biannual ranking of global business thinkers. She was also featured on
which was listed as one of the best nonfiction books of 2022 by The New Yorker. To
the 2021 Thinkers 50 list, was shortlisted for the 2021 Digital Thinking Award, and re-
date, her books have been translated into 19 languages. A widely published and quoted
ceived the 2017 Thinkers50 Radar Award. Forbes called Amy “one of the five women
thought leader, Amy regularly appears in a wide range of publications and broadcasts.
changing the world,” and she was honored as one of the BBC’s 100 Women of 2020.

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ENERGY • CLIMATE
TECH ENERGY & CLIMATE
TABLE OF CONTENTS
330 Top Headlines 343 Perovskite Cells 347 Digitalization 352 Fusion 358 TPV Batteries
331 State of Play 344 Dye-sensitized Solar Cells 348 Small Scale Hydro 352 Fusion Momentum 358 Iron Batteries
332 Key Events 344 Organic Solar Materials 348 Hydro as a Water Battery 352 Privately led Fusion Projects 358 Solid State Batteries
333 Likely Near Term 344 Solar Thermophotovoltaics 348 New Turbine Design 352 Molten Salt Reactors 359 Gravitational Energy Storage
Developments
345 New Wind 349 Clean Fuels 352 Laser-Driven Fusion 359 Flow Batteries
334 Why Energy & Climate
345 Offshore Floating Wind 349 Hydrogen 352 Small Modular Reactors 359 Capacitors
Trends Matter to Your
Turbines
Organization 349 Reducing the Cost of Hydrogen 354 Emerging Forms of 359 Compressed Air Storage (CAES)
345 Vertical Wind Turbines Production Energy Production
335 When Will Energy & 360 Energy Transport
Climate Trends Impact 345 Going Bladeless 349 New Base Materials 354 Energy From Thin Air
360 UHV Power Lines
Your Organization?
345 Airborne Wind Energy 349 Biofuels 354 Wave Power
336 Opportunities and Threats 360 Superconductors
346 AI Wind Farms 349 Biofuels From Hemp 354 Tidal Turbines
337 Investments and Actions 361 The Grid
346 Dispatchable Wind Energy 350 Biofuels From Algae 354 Mimicking Photosynthesis
To Consider 361 Dynamic Line Rating (DLR)
Production
350 Syngas From the Sun 355 Alternatives to Minerals and Systems
338 Central Themes
347 Other Renewables Rare Earths
351 Fossil Fuel Innovation 361 Balancing the Flow of Power
340 Ones To Watch
347 Geothermal 355 Local Sourcing Within the Grid
351 Rededication of Contaminated
341 Important Terms
347 Supercritical Geothermal Land 355 Alternative Materials 362 Emissions Removal
342 Energy Production
347 Using Geothermal for 351 Reducing the Carbon Footprint 355 Rare Earth Avoidance 363 Carbon Capture and Storage
343 New Solar Energy Storage of Fossil Fuels
356 Scenario: What If the World 363 Natural CSS
343 Concentrated Solar 347 Ocean Thermal Energy 351 Methane Emissions Runs on Thermal Energy?
363 Direct Air Capture
343 Multitasking Solar Conversion Reductions
357 Energy Infrastructure
363 CO2 Storage
343 Dispatchable Solar 347 Hydropower 352 New Nuclear
358 Energy Storage

TABLE OF CONTENTS
364 CCS-as-a-Service 369 3D Printed Houses 374 Mushroom Plastic 381 Microplastics 387 Climate Economy
365 Carbon Utilization 370 Heavy Industries 374 Self-Healing Materials 381 Living Breakwater 388 Carbon Credits
365 Carbon-Based Food 370 Steel and Iron 375 Lab Grown Leather 381 Ocean Chemistry 388 Investment From Traditional
Banks
365 Diamonds 370 Chemicals 376 Green Transport 381 Gene Editing
388 Verification Methodology
365 Hair Care, Soap, and Laundry 371 Agriculture 376 Micromobility 382 Scenario: What If a Sunshield
Detergent Leads to a New World Order? 388 Focus on Asset Management
371 Plants Without Plants 376 Cars
365 Chemical Production 383 Effects of Climate Change 388 Blockchain Integration
371 Fertilizer Innovation 376 Heavy Trucks
366 Carbon Tracking 384 Monitoring Climate Change 388 Measuring Carbon
371 CRISPR Edited Crops 376 Trains Sequestration
366 Funding Influx 384 Emissions
371 Waste 377 Air 389 Blue Economy
366 Tracking Platforms 384 Extreme Weather
372 Digital Emissions 377 Ocean 389 Blue Carbon Offsets
366 Government Investment and 384 Crops
372 Reducing Carbon Emissions 378 Environmental Manipulation
Regulation 389 Ocean land mapping
385 Community-based Efforts
372 Measuring Emissions 379 Earth
366 Individual Consumer Tracking 389 Foundational Data US
385 Digital Twins of Earth
373 Recycling 379 Rewilding: Animals/Nature
367 Scenario: What If CO2 Is the 389 Data Platforms
386 Living in a New Reality
Foundation for Consumer 373 AI Waste-Sorting Robots 379 Bioengineering 390 Fishing
Products? 386 Floating Cities
373 Food 380 Sky 390 Desalination
368 Emissions Reductions 386 Other Concepts for Cities
373 Plastic 380 Geoengineering 391 Authors
369 Green Processes 386 Underground Climate Change
374 Green Materials 380 Solar Geoengineering 393 Selected Sources
369 Construction 386 Indonesia’s New Capital
374 Cross-Laminated Timber 380 Cloud Seeding
369 Carbon Neutral or Negative 386 Domed Cities
374 Mycelium 381 Ocean
Building Materials

TOP HEADLINES 01 Investment is shifting from clean energy to enabling technologies

As wind and solar provide more power, venture capital is targeting bottlenecks
in supporting infrastructures such as the grid and monitoring technology.
Private and public
climate efforts widen 02 Extreme weather sets new records
and accelerate in 2023 was the hottest year in the history of humankind; as the ocean warms,
the collapse of the Gulf Stream is projected to be much more likely.
the light of the most

extreme weather we 03 Tracking carbon has become popular with regulators
Regulators have shifted their focus from establishing the carbon market to
have ever experienced adding transparency, standards, and verification frameworks.
04 Polluters being held accountable

A slew of groundbreaking litigation set precedents for holding governments and
companies accountable for the effects of climate change caused by their (in)action.
05 Governments are considering a broader set of tools

Regulators are exploring solar geoengineering, considering softer regulations for
CRISPR crops, and redesigning urban concepts to adapt to hostile environments.

STATE In 2023, attention shifted from scaling of renewable energies and electric
vehicles to ensuring that these scaled technologies could be viably inte-
OF PLAY
grated into existing systems. Venture capital moved from transportation,
energy, and food and land use to the built environment and heavy industry
decarbonization, making significant innovation likely. Governments tight-
ened ESG regulations, putting pressure on companies to bring transparen-
cy into carbon emission reporting, even while standardization frameworks
for measuring and reporting these emissions along the entire supply
chain are still being developed. These increased reporting pressures run
From revolution to evolution: the risk of leading to a focus on the wrong metrics, crippling effective envi-
ronmental initiatives.
The global focus shifts to the
Environmental impacts are now defined more broadly, which increases
creation of an enabling ecosystem companies’ responsibilities. The framework passed at the 2022 UN’s Bio-
for climate action at scale. diversity Conference amplified the protection of biological ecosystems, eq-
uitable access, and human rights. In 2023, COP28 had its first-ever health
day, and nations committed to include food systems into their updated
Nationally Determined Contributions. Further responsibilities might come
from a series of lawsuits which decide if actors can be held responsible for
the effects of climate change they caused. If courts rule they are, prepare
for drastically changed efforts in regulation and business practices.

KEY EVENTS
MARCH 8, 2023 J U N E 2 9, 2 0 2 3 DECEMBER 3, 2023
Carbon injected in the sea Fraud task force for ESGs First Ever COP Health Day
Denmark became the first nation The Commodity Futures Trading The acknowledgment of the intercon-
to import CO2 for the purpose of Commission announces a task nectedness of health and environment
burying it in the North Sea. force to combat ESG related fraud. at the UN Climate Change Conference
gives hope for integrated actions.
MARCH 14, 2023 J U LY 5 , 2 0 2 3
Forever chemicals ban Looser GMO rules in EU

In the US, toxic PFAS are The European Commission
banned from water while proposes looser restrictions in
the EU backpedals. light of innovation in the field.


CHANGE IS THE NEW NORMAL Price Beats Ethics Rethinking Supply Chains From Early Bird to Night Owl
Two opposing forces will make the As inflation soars and the fear of a recession Governments are expanding their require- Excessive heat impacts daily lives around the
corporate landscape highly volatile festers, consumers might put affordability ments for reliable and consistent reporting of globe, forcing people to stay indoors during
and unpredictable. On the one hand, above climate considerations, at least when it direct and indirect emissions (scope 1, 2, and the day and only leave their houses in the eve-
active regulatory bodies, scaling of comes to their wallets. This will put additional 3), putting pressure on corporations to curate ning. As these heat phases expand, industries
strain on business owners, as they determine their vendor networks and on the vendors to dependent on people’s physical presence will
renewable energy production, and how to adjust for climate demands. ensure their operations are still profitable have to rethink operations as habits and tim-
increased investment in innovation under increased standards. ing of activities shift.
that aims to solve the remaining
bottlenecks will require and empower Shifts in Mobility Accountability Changes Climate Upskilling
corporations to integrate sustain-
More and more people, at least in Europe, are The resolution of a number of upcoming With climate regulation expanding and evolv-
ability in ways not imaginable just committing to not use air travel. The resulting court cases will begin to determine governing, and climate technology innovation accel-
a few years ago. On the other hand, smaller spheres of mobility could lead to an ment and corporate responsibility for climate erating (thanks to AI) and scaling, companies
economic headwinds in the form of increasing need for companies to have local change. If verdicts fall on the side of holding need to make sure they have the necessary
hubs, especially as the terms of remote work institutions responsible, we could see funda- know-how in-house to understand and moni-
heavy inflation and a looming reces-
are still being negotiated. mental changes in how climate is addressed. tor relevant developments.
sion might lead consumers to priori-
tize affordability over sustainability,
and escalating geopolitical tensions 11 MACRO SOURCES OF DISRUPTION
could strain the supply chain, in-
crease the price of raw materials, and
hinder collaboration in research—
slowing down innovation.

WHY ENERGY & CLIMATE TRENDS MATTER TO YOUR ORGANIZATION
Opportunity for Cost Savings & Climate Risk Investment & Financing Energy Attack on
Innovation Efficiencies Resiliency Opportunities Independence Profitability
Energy and climate Embracing climate Increased frequency, As climate-conscious Businesses that Implementing climate
technologies can help technology brings severity, and wider funding continues to invest in their own technologies and
businesses transform in long-term savings. occurrence of extreme surge, businesses with renewable energy adhering to environmental
revolutionary ways that Reduced energy use and weather events force innovative climate production can achieve regulations may raise
increase profitability operational expenses all businesses to think solutions gain greater a high degree of energy production costs, due to
significantly: Changed enhance overall about how to mitigate access to capital, independence, reducing upfront investment or
processes, new materials, efficiency, positively impacts, not just those enabling them to their vulnerability to compliance expenses,
updated supply chains, a impacting the bottom in disaster-prone regions. scale operations and fluctuations in pricing impacting profitability.
different set of partners line. This positions the Flexible measures are accelerate the transition and increasing grid Strategic planning
and collaborators, and company for sustainable needed to maintain to a more sustainable failures. They’ll gain and collaboration are
investment in research growth, demonstrates continuity, protect future. This provides a greater control over energy crucial to navigating this
can lead to new products commitment to a green assets, and promote unique opportunity to supply, with insulation transition successfully.
and services—and a future, and fosters a sustainable growth in the stay ahead of regulatory from market uncertainties
competitive edge. culture of environmental face of an increasingly requirements and tap into and enhanced long-term
responsibility. unpredictable climate. growing green markets. stability.

WHEN WILL ENERGY & CLIMATE TRENDS DISRUPT YOUR ORGANIZATION?
Agriculture Pharma Space exploration All trends will be relevant
Energy generation Financial services
Transportation Consumer goods
Construction Health care
Insurance Information technology
Real estate Water management
Hospitality Infrastructure development
Retail Waste management
City management
Manufacturing

Assessing the existing expertise and hiring or training employees with Look for new partners to collaborate with and selectively outsource activities for
the necessary skills to integrate climate technologies is a must yet can be implementing sustainability measures as part of a new supportive ecosystem.
challenging in an already tight labor market and an overworked workforce. This keeps costs at bay and expands the opportunity for cross-pollination of
ideas.
Companies might be confronted with a much higher cost of doing business
after integrating sustainable processes and raw materials. This might pose Price volatility and stricter regulation will trigger a rethink of business operations.
existential risks or fundamental shifts in operations and threaten profitability. This can lead to new efficiencies in tangential contexts outside of environmental
considerations and positively affect margins.
Geopolitical tensions and a higher frequency of extreme weather events
increase the risk for supply chain disruptions, as well as rising prices and First movers will be able to define the new normal. They’ll build competitive
scarcity of necessary base materials and labor. advantage by transforming common business procedures in their industry and
setting standards as they improve their business operations.
As tracking capabilities expand through scope 1, 2, and 3 emissions,
businesses should be prepared to find that their carbon emissions footprint Think beyond the changes necessary to comply with sustainability requirements
is much more significant than expected (and less under their control). by also considering structural changes that could make the company more
flexible and responsive to innovation.
Proactive regulators are needed to ensure we reach our climate goals. However,
new regulations as well as changes to existing rules will redesign business Energy and captured CO2 emissions are just two examples of products that the
environments and create a strain for companies as they try to navigate their integration of climate technologies can add to a company’s portfolio. Thinking
operational transformation. expansively can open up avenues into new industries, including but not limited
to energy.

1 2 3 4 5 6
With innovation making Consider all workforce as- Sustainability is becoming Explore new avenues to not Global demographics will Clearly define goals,
huge strides in carbon pects: Companies need to a broader effort and now only stay on top of innova- change significantly over benchmarks, and deadlines
tracking, invest time into weigh the skills and exper- includes biodiversity, ethi- tion but to become part of the next few decades, for the assessment and
finding the platform and tise available, where to hire cal practices, and protec- the ecosystem of investing, with migration, aging, and implementation of climate
sensor ecosystem that’s the or upskill, whether structure tion of indigenous commu- research and develop- overpopulation all con- technologies in your com-
best fit for your business and hierarchies need to nities. Work toward gaining ment. This ensures that the tributing factors. Investi- pany. Identify a sensible
and supply chain. These evolve, as well as where insights about these areas bottlenecks and problems gate how this affects your organizational structure,
technologies will touch ev- employees should be throughout your entire specific to your business current customer base, relevant stakeholders, re-
ery aspect of your business, working. All these factors supply chain to prepare for are being solved, and might and where new markets, sponsible parties, and how
making the implementation are relevant for the carbon regulatory pressures. even lead to new business either in regards to location the company will efficiently
of new hardware and soft- footprint but also need to models licensing the devel- or customer profile, could integrate the findings and
ware very expensive. be considered for maximiz- oped technology. emerge globally. technologies.
ing profitability.

CENTRAL THEMES
Proactive Regulators Focus on Enabling Technologies Alternative Materials
On both sides of the Atlantic, regulators stepped up After passing the $1 trillion investment mark in 2022, The race to find alternative materials for renewable
to enable significant climate action. The EU’s Green overall venture capital in climate tech dropped 40% energy production and tangential technologies (such
Deal Industrial Plan includes easier access to financ- in 2023. However, most of that decrease took place in as batteries) is on. In a tense geopolitical environment
ing, simplification of permitting processes, regulatory later stages and growth funding; seed funding actual- where the location of needed raw materials is limit-
sandboxes for member states, and the announcement ly grew 23%, and the number of deals rose by 34%. In ed to areas often plagued by political and economic
of the European Hydrogen Bank to quickly scale the addition, investors are showing enthusiasm for solving instability, there’s an increased desire for nations to be
fuel’s use in the region. In the US, regulators banned new problems, after renewables have moved into the resource independent. Recently, Sweden and Norway
certain forever chemicals (PFAS) in drinking water, scaling phase. Investment in the big three—transpor- made inroads on this independence when the larg-
strengthened pollution standards for cars and trucks, tation, energy, and food and land use—saw significant est rare earth and mineral deposits were found in the
and widened eligibility for clean-energy tax credits. To drops, while investment in industry processes and the region. While China responded to the US’s 2022 export
avoid greenwashing, the EU proposed the Green Claims built environment, both historically underfunded, saw controls on advanced computing and semiconductors
Directive to eliminate misleading messaging. In the gains. But there is still much to be done: Transforming manufacturing equipment with its own restrictions on
US, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission cre- the grid to accommodate non-dispatchable energy exporting gallium and germanium (needed for solar
ated a task force to combat environmental fraud, and sources; searching for alternative materials for batter- technologies), impact is less significant thanks to the
the Securities and Exchange Commission proposed ies, solar cells, and wind turbines; capturing and stor- ability to expand in alternative markets in the mid-
stricter climate disclosure rules for publicly traded ing carbon; tracking emissions; and bringing transpar- term. Innovation intensified last year around finding
companies. ency and validity to carbon markets are just some of alternative materials for climate technologies, pre-
the bottlenecks that urgently need innovation. dominantly in electric vehicle motors (rare earth) and
batteries (metals).

CENTRAL THEMES
Looking Beyond Carbon Tracking Climate Change Blue Economy on the Rise
While carbon dioxide emissions are front and center The tightened regulatory requirements for companies Originally used by small developing island states, the
in the climate conversation, a more holistic approach to reduce their carbon footprint increases the need for term “blue economy” today encompasses socially
has gained significant traction and increased public cohesive and reliable emissions tracking, as well as equitable, environmentally sustainable, and economi-
awareness. Both the US and the EU have taken steps to common measurement standards. In the carbon credit cally profitable ocean-based industries and spaces. In
control methane emissions, and global leaders came market, frameworks to verify actual results of carbon 2023, the US launched a global initiative of more than
together during the United Nations Biodiversity Con- projects and create a viable rating system are crucial $800 million to protect oceans and support devel-
ference (COP 15) in December 2022 to agree on global for credibility and effectiveness. As extreme weather be- oping nations. This follows the EU’s previous efforts
action on addressing biodiversity loss, restoring eco- comes more frequent, severe, and widespread, govern- to create the Atlantic Smart Ports Blue Acceleration
systems, and protecting indigenous rights. As a result, ments have increased their efforts to build better pre- Network to transform Atlantic ports, the G20 Supreme
30% of the planet and 30% of degraded ecosystems will diction systems to protect lives and ecosystems. Amid Audit Institutions cooperating to meet the challenge of
be under protection by 2030. EU regulators have agreed a landscape where insurers are pulling out of states like auditing the blue economy, and African funds’ focus on
on the Nature Restoration Law, which requires coun- California and Florida because risks deemed uninsur- innovation to advance blue economy solutions for the
tries to work toward restoring at least 20% of land and able, these systems can provide the industry with the continent. These initiatives triggered a flurry of innova-
sea areas, and the US expressed its intention to join data necessary to calculate risks. The development of tion focusing on the ocean, from means and devices to
the High Ambition Coalition on Biodiversity Beyond these monitoring technologies is being accelerated by collect data underneath the surface, to platforms that
National Jurisdiction, supported by the UN. Currently, artificial intelligence and innovation around imaging, synthesize and analyze the data and make it available
95% of the ocean falls beyond national jurisdiction, such as hyperspectral imaging. Also helping to unify the to all relevant stakeholders, to advanced desalination
and the coalition represents a group of countries that integrity frameworks are joint efforts by various stake- methods and increased support for sustainable fish-
have pledged to protect that ecosystem. Rewilding holders in the voluntary carbon markets. ing. As the ocean is also moving more into the climate
efforts have also increased, often on state, local, and conversation for carbon sequestration and power
even individual levels. generation, we can expect to see an acceleration of not
just technological advances but also novel business
activity in this space.

ONES TO WATCH
Dr. Stefaan De Wolf, professor of material John Connell, senior scientist at NASA Pasi Vainikka, CEO of Solar Foods, for Nathalie Berezina, founder and CEO of
science and engineering of the KAUST So- Langley Research Center, for advancing creating food out of renewable energy and Norbite, for transforming plastic waste
lar Center, for setting the world record for research on a solid state battery to be used carbon dioxide. into sustainable products with the help of
tandem solar cell efficiency. in aviation. moths.
Freddie Lintell, founder and CEO of Ree-
Alexander Bormann, founder of EnerKite, Lee Suk-bae, Ji-Hoon Kim, and Young- wild, for creating a carbon tracking app for Khaled Hassounah, co-founder and CEO
for expanding the EV-charging infrastruc- Wan Kwon of the Quantum Energy consumers. of Ample, for providing an alternative to EV
ture with airborne wind. Research Centre, for their preprint on charging: battery swapping.
developing the first room temperature Josh Dorfman, co-founder and CEO of
Dr. Motiar Rahaman, research associate superconductor. Plantd, for transforming perennial grass Tim Duehrkoop, co-founder and CEO of Xil-
at University of Cambridge, for leading into carbon-negative building materials. va, for developing a methodology to assess
research on a solar-powered reactor that Hudson Gilmer, co-founder and CEO of forest sequestration projects.
converts CO2 captured from industrial LineVision, for creating the only non-con- Virginia San Fratello, architect, for 3D
waste or air into sustainable fuel. tact overhead power line monitoring sys- printing houses out of indigenous materi- Dr. Tom Jackson and his team at Lough-
tem, used by UK’s National Grid. als such as salt and clay. borough University, for the creation of the
Andrew Ponec, co-founder and CEO of “Data Carbon Ladder,” which enables the
Antora Energy, for developing thermal Isabella Arzeno-Soltero, postdoctoral Dr. William Dichtel, chemistry professor at tracking of digital emissions.
energy storage that turns renewable energy scholar at Stanford University, for deter- Northwestern, and Brittany Trang, Sharon
into on-demand power usable by the heavy mining that seaweed farming cannot scale Begley Science Reporting Fellow at STAT, Bob Mumgaard, CEO of Commonwealth
industries. enough to meet climate goals. for developing a low temperature, inexpen- Fusion Systems, for being a frontrunner in
sive method to break down PFAS. the nuclear fusion race.
Xiaomeng Liu, researcher at University of Dr. Graciela Chichilnisky, co-founder of
Massachusetts Amherst, for his research Global Thermostat, for creating one of the Shimrit Bar-El, co-founder and CRO at
on creating energy from air. largest direct air capture machines ever Novella, for growing botanical ingredients
operated. without the plant.
Mateo Jaramillo, CEO of Form Energy, for
building a 1 gigawatt hour demo system of Talal Hasan, CEO of 44.01, for leading the Hunter Swisher, founder of Phospholu-
an iron air battery, expected to come online first CO2 mineralization project in the Mid- tions, for reducing the amount of phospho-
in 2025. dle East that utilizes seawater. rus in fertilizer by 50%.

IMPORTANT TERMS
Ammonia Direct air capture biomass, and used as a source of energy or fuel. Solid bioenergy
A compound of nitrogen and hydrogen. It can A technology that captures CO2 from the atmo- Depending on the resource and energy type used Charcoal, fuelwood, dung, agricultural residues,
be used directly as a fuel in direct combustion spheric air through a chemical reaction. to produce it, hydrogen production can be emis- wood waste and other solid wastes.
processes, as well as in fuel cells or as a hydrogen sions-intensive or carbon neutral.
carrier. To be a low emissions fuel, ammonia must Dispatchable generation Traditional: Refers to the use of solid biomass with
be produced from low-carbon hydrogen and the ni- Dispatchable generation is a source of electricity Liquid bioenergy (biofuel) basic technologies, such as a three-stone fire, often
trogen separated through the Haber process using that can be turned on or off, such as nuclear, mean- Liquid fuels derived from biomass or waste feed- with no or poorly operating chimneys.
electricity generated from low-carbon sources. ing it can be controlled. Non-dispatchable energy stock. They include ethanol, biodiesel, and biojet
sources, such as wind and solar photovoltaics, Modern: Refers to the use of solid bioenergy in im-
fuels.
Bioenergy cannot be controlled by operators. proved cook stoves and modern technologies using
Energy content derived from biomass feedstocks Conventional: Fuels produced from food crop feed- processed biomass such as pellets.
and biogas. It comes in solid, liquid, and gaseous Electrolysis stock such as sugar cane or vegetable oil, among
Electrolysis is a process where electric current Solar photovoltaics (PV)
form. Its liquid form is often labeled biofuel. others.
passes through a substance to effect a chemical A process which converts sunlight into electricity
Biogas change. In hydrogen production, electricity is used Advanced: Fuels produced from non-food crop using a technology based on the photoelectric ef-
A mixture of methane, CO2, and small quantities to split water into hydrogen and oxygen. If the feedstock that don’t directly compete with food and fect. With the photoelectric effect, materials absorb
of other gases produced by anaerobic digestion of power used for the process comes from sustain- feed crops for agricultural land. photons (light) and release electrons, generating
organic matter in an oxygen-free environment. able energy sources, the process does not produce electricity.
Process emissions
greenhouse gas emissions.
Carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) Emissions from industrial processes that involve Zero carbon-ready buildings
The process of capturing CO2 emissions from fuel Energy intensity chemical or physical transformations (separate A zero carbon-ready building is a highly energy
combustion, industrial processes or directly from Energy intensity is the amount of energy used to from fuel combustion). efficient building. It uses either renewable energy
the atmosphere. Captured CO2 emissions can be produce a certain level of output. sources directly or energy sources that can be de-
Pyrolysis carbonized, for example electricity or district heat.
stored in onshore or offshore underground geologi-
Hydrogen Pyrolysis is the process of heating organic materi-
cal formations, or used as an input or feedstock in
Hydrogen is the simplest and most abundant als, such as biomass, in the absence of oxygen. Zero emission vehicles (ZEVs)
manufacturing.
element in the universe. It can be produced from a Vehicles that operate without emitting CO2 emis-
variety of resources such as water, fossil fuels, or sions (such as battery electric and fuel cell vehicles).

ENERGY
PRODUCTION

NEW SOLAR
Concentrated Solar Multitasking Solar Dispatchable Solar Perovskite Cells
Concentrated solar power (CSP) uses para- Companies are building new solar installa- Dispatchable power enables a generation Perovskite is a crystalline compound that
bolic mirrors or “heliostats” to focus sunlight tions with a mind toward additional benefits source to scale up or down based on fluctu- can be used as a semiconductor in solar cells
and generate extremely high temperatures. A beyond electrical power generation. When ations in demand. Solar power installations, as an easier, cheaper, and more sustain-
common implementation of CSP is the “pow- installed in tandem with wind turbines, solar traditionally implemented in a way that able alternative to silicon. Furthermore, it is
er tower,” in which concentric circles of helio- panels are arranged to take advantage of always maximizes energy output, are getting transparent and flexible, making it easier than
stats all focus on the receiver of a single, cen- the Venturi effect, essentially creating wind smarter, able to adjust individual panel an- silicon to integrate into the landscape. In April,
tral tower hundreds of meters off the ground. tunnels. These configurations increase air- gles to change their aggregate power gen- researchers at the King Abdullah University
Although the concept was first developed in flow and wind turbine output by up to 60%. eration and better accommodate the needs of Science and Technology in Saudi Arabia
the 1970s and ’80s, new methods and plant Solar windows are becoming transparent of the grid. On large-scale solar farms, this developed a new combination silicon/per-
designs have inspired a modest resurgence, enough not to impact aesthetics in building system of dispatching can go so far as to ovskite solar cell, which achieved an efficiency
particularly in Australia and Africa. Bolstering construction, thanks to organic semicon- independently adjust subsections of panels, of 33.2%, a new world record for two-junction
the case for CSP plants is the dispatchability ductors that can be liquified and spread as a or even individual panels, to compensate solar cells. Advances in perovskite-based cells
of the energy generated. Because CSP gen- coating on glass. In California, a pilot pro- for others that are temporarily obscured are occurring quickly, and the technology is
erates thermal energy, it can be transferred gram dubbed Project Nexus is placing solar by cloud cover or experiencing operation- regularly setting new efficiency and lifetime
using liquid sodium and stored long term in panels above irrigation canals in the San al issues, thus ensuring a responsive and records.
molten salt reservoirs. Due to the abundance Joaquin Valley. Researchers estimate that consistent output. Counterintuitively, many
of the elements required, large-scale thermal placing similar solar panel canopies above of the problems with static solar power gen-
storage would be relatively cheap when com- the state’s 4,000 miles of open canals would eration stem from creating too much pow-
pared with the rare earth elements needed for generate 13 gigawatts of power while simul- er: When the sun is at its zenith and solar
electric batteries, such as lithium and cobalt. taneously saving 63 billion gallons of water generation peaks, solar plants can potential-
For this reason, concentrated solar is being annually in a region that has seen severe ly produce so much energy they overwhelm
viewed as an economical alternative to photo- drought over the past decade. The solar can- local electric grids. Dispatchable solar power
voltaic solar for nighttime use. opies cool water temperatures, halt evapora- eliminates this problem, creating a more
tion, and prevent the growth of water-based dynamic and responsive source of power.
plants.

NEW SOLAR
Dye-sensitized Solar Cells Organic Solar Materials Solar Thermophotovoltaics
Dye-sensitized solar cells (DSC) are made Organic solar materials that can be printed While normal photovoltaic cells respond
using organic dyes that capture photons from or stuck onto surfaces have continued to only to less than half of the sun’s rays that
light. They are cheaper to manufacture than shrink in size. These photovoltaics can be are visible, solar thermophotovoltaics create
silicon solar cells, more flexible in their de- 50 microns thin, less than the width of a electricity from heat waves. Antora Energy,
sign, and can even be semitransparent. Fur- human hair, and can be adhered to surfac- a US-based startup, has completed a large-
ther, they operate on a wider spectrum of light es after they’re manufactured, ostensibly scale manufacturing facility that produces
than traditional silicon solar cells. Ambient making any surface a power-generating thermophotovoltaic cells with 40% efficien-
Photonics, an Amazon-backed startup, has opportunity. Because of the small footprint cy. Meanwhile, researchers at the University
completed construction on a new, large-scale of organic solar cells, they can also be ad- of Houston have developed a new design for
DSC manufacturing facility. The company hered to transparent surfaces. As a result, thermophotovoltaic cells with an improved
claims its products can operate at low levels solar windows are reaching the point where intermediary layer, which prevents thermal
of light, such as indoor environments, and is they are transparent enough not to impact energy from being wastefully radiated away.
aiming to eliminate the need for batteries in aesthetics and could be used more widely in This development could push efficiency lev-
small electronic devices. buildings. Recent experimentation aims to els even higher.
increase these organic solar cells’ viability
for power production on larger areas.
Flexible, transparent solar cells might soon be

adhered to building windows.

NEW WIND
Offshore Floating Wind Turbines with pioneering floating wind projects; it will flows to cater to the chaotic wind patterns Airborne Wind Energy
Offshore floating wind technology is growing be supported by a $100 million public fund. of urban areas. Available in varied sizes to Kitemill, a Norwegian enterprise, is pioneer-
with changes in base designs, innovative tur- suit diverse buildings, O-Wind turbines can ing the advancement of airborne wind ener-
Vertical Wind Turbines connect to the grid or operate independently
bine configurations, and strengthened regu- gy, which involves attaching a turbine to a
latory backing in the US and Europe. In recent Vertical wind turbine innovation reached a with battery units. From Xenecore, a design flying device, to revolutionize wind energy’s
years, “super-sized” structures have become milestone with Norway’s March 2022 ap- that incorporates I-beam ribs and micro- effectiveness, versatility, and affordability.
popular as major players unveil groundbreak- proval of a vertical-axis floating wind pilot sphere structural foam amplifies power gen- Its latest triumph, the KM2 system, is double
ing designs. Among these is Wind Catching project. SeaTwirl and the Marine Energy Test eration with its fan-shaped wind blades. And the size of the KM1 prototype, has a 16-me-
Systems, a 2017-established entity situated Centre will test the prototype for five years because the future needs wind technology ter wingspan, and integrates four propellers
near Oslo, Norway. Pioneering the multi-tur- near Lauplandsholmenoff. The project’s that will work at relatively low wind speeds, for vertical takeoff. The system can generate
bine approach, the company focuses on a progress stalled due to appeals from envi- the fastest-growing energy sector across the an average power cycle of 100 kilowatts. In
“floating wind power plant.” The Dublin-based ronmental and fishing groups, but Norwe- globe is bladeless wind energy. It leverages another promising collaboration, EnerKíte and
Gazelle, a company focused on advanced gian regulators’ rejection of the appeals en- vortex shedding, a vorticity phenomenon, Volkswagen embarked on a feasibility study
offshore wind platforms, has introduced a sures SeaTwirl’s S2X pilot can move forward through a vertical cylinder affixed with an to explore the potential of a mobile e-charging
new hybrid dynamic mooring system—this without further challenges. Additionally, elastic rod. It oscillates within the wind’s station. These innovative airborne wind tur-
revolutionary platform design promises 3D-printed vertical wind turbines are grow- range and powers an alternator system bines hold the promise of charging electric
unmatched stability, courtesy of its lighting, with several companies experimenting. to generate electricity. Prominent players vehicles even in the remotest regions, reduc-
weight and compact structure and flexibility include Vortex Bladeless, Tyer Wind, Agile ing reliance on conventional power grids and
Going Bladeless Wind Power, Silent Wind, and Sway Turbine
as it can be seamlessly assembled at global enhancing green mobility.
port facilities. In the realm of US regulation, New innovation in wind turbines includes AS in Europe; Saphon Energy in Africa; and,
the Biden administration has announced a evolving designs beyond traditional blades. Mag-Wind Vertical Axis Turbine, Atmocean,
comprehensive 20-month study of the West O-Wind has pioneered an omnidirection- Enomad, and SheerWind in the US.
Coast’s burgeoning floating offshore wind al design that simultaneously captures
potential. This investigation aims to optimize winds from all directions, a breakthrough
transmission networks and connect the grid that uniquely blends horizontal and vertical

NEW WIND
AI Wind Farms Dispatchable Wind Energy Production
Like most other industries, AI is also reshap- As scientists find more ways to store wind
ing renewable energy. Israeli company vHive energy, it will grow as a dispatchable elec-
has introduced an advanced tool for wind tricity solution from which power grids can
turbine inspections, leveraging autonomous demand electricity based on market needs.
data collection and a novel digital twin plat- One way to ensure such storage is by fusing
form. This innovation empowers wind farm hydrogen with the grid, like what’s being
operators to strategically digitize assets, ele- done in the Netherlands. There, an alliance
vate operational efficiency, and curtail output of prominent partners led by Shell is using
decline. UK’s Cognitive Business is working hydrogen from offshore wind energy plants
with RWE’s Robin Rigg offshore wind farm, de- to stabilize the electricity grid, and aims to
livering an AI-powered package that encom- maintain 70% renewable electricity by 2030.
passes pattern recognition and production The FlexH2 consortium, which includes TNO
forecasting to ensure precise maintenance and other industry players, collaborates
predictions and optimal performance. AI has closely on joint research and pioneering
also proven pivotal in the setup, upkeep, and technology development, expediting integra-
enhancement of offshore wind farms. The tion into the energy matrix.
Dhalion Inspection System by Perceptual
Robotics is an interesting example with a
fully autonomous solution for wind blade
inspection, encompassing data acquisition,
insights, and decision-making.
AI helps to make Windfarms more efficient and maintain and optimize performance.

OTHER RENEWABLES
Geothermal Earth’s surface, greatly reducing the risk of electrical batteries, which require large pump water from a depth of 600 meters at
Unlike other renewables, geothermal ener- and investment required to utilize them. In quantities of rare earth elements and are not near-freezing temperatures to be used in a ti-
gy represents a stable source of power that Japan, the New Energy and Industrial Tech- as efficient. Multiple research efforts have tanium heat exchanger; the process is expect-
doesn’t fluctuate with time of day or weather nology Development Organization has been recently focused on using carbon dioxide as ed to generate 1 megawatt of electric power by
patterns. This energy can be harnessed by experimenting in volcanic regions of Hokkai- the storage medium, which has the added 2026.
tapping into hot water and steam reservoirs do. Meanwhile, new geothermal research and benefit of sequestering greenhouse gases.
startups push the boundaries of existing In the US, the National Renewable Energy Hydropower
beneath the Earth’s crust. Once accessed, it
can be used for direct heating or to generate technologies. Researchers are testing work- Laboratory has begun efforts to identify high Accounting for more than 15% of global elec-
electricity through geothermal power plants. ing fluids composed of supercritical carbon storage potential sites, and in Germany, the tricity generation in 2022, hydropower con-
dioxide to transfer and pump heat back to Karlsruhe Institute of Technology is evaluat- tinues to be the largest source of renewable
Supercritical Geothermal the Earth’s surface. Companies are developing how geothermal energy storage might be power, contributing more than wind, solar, and
Supercritical geothermal energy production ing new tools, like Thermochem’s probe and integrated into the existing grid. biofuels combined. New opportunities for hy-
requires going deeper into the Earth’s crust logging tool rated to operate at temperatures dropower manifest in efficiency, storage, and
up to 400 degrees Celsius. Barriers to devel- Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion small scale (but widespread) deployments.
than conventional geothermal, tapping into
the extreme temperatures and pressures opment remain, however, mainly in the form Ocean thermal energy conversion generates
of policy and international cooperation. power from the temperature difference that Digitalization
present there (in excess of 374 degrees Cel-
sius and 221 bar, respectively). While con- exists in ocean water. Because this differ- Hydro plants have invested significantly in
Using Geothermal for Energy Storage ence is unaffected by weather and climate digital management for their equipment and
taining enormous power generation poten-
tial, these conditions also present extreme Geothermal energy storage techniques hold conditions, it represents a reliable source of systems, all with the aim of optimizing energy
technological challenges. Some of those may energy in the form of increased temperature sustainable energy. Furthermore, the sea- output and safety. Utilizing cloud computing
be alleviated by recent research, which has and pressure which is “pumped” into the water output from the process is usable in and big data, operators hope to build machine
focused on tapping into supercritical geo- earth and released as needed. Research- commercial applications such as fisheries, learning models to guide automated deci-
thermal fluids at sites adjacent to volcanic ers and government agencies are looking agriculture, and air conditioning. Japanese sion-making in these complex environments.
activity. At these sites, extreme temperatures closely at this option for storing sustainably shipping company Mitsui O.S.K. Lines has Given the risk involved with such a digital
and pressures can be found closer to the generated energy in lieu of massive banks announced a pilot program that would transformation, some operators have even

OTHER RENEWABLES
opted to create digital twins of their plants, The European Union has also funded pilots ity by 2031. Spain started building a 200 ing to minimize the environmental impact
enabling a safe environment for training the for small scale hydro in sites across Central megawatt plant in the Canary Islands. China, of hydropower. Its latest turbine implements
algorithms of the future. Spain has made sig- Asia. Though this region has the world’s sec- meanwhile, continues to lead the world in a curved blade design aiming to drastically
nificant investment so far, and officials plan ond largest potential for hydroelectric power, pumped storage capacity, with 51 gigawatts reduce the rate of marine life fatality for crea-
to onboard 160 of its power plants to a digital larger hydro developments there have been currently in operation and more planned to tures passing through.
management platform. China, too, is making slow due to political, economical, and legal come.
strides, and officials have put all data from factors, such as water rights claims and con-
the Three Gorges Dam (the largest hydroelec- cerns about environmental impact. Small New Turbine Design
tric project in the world) into the cloud of scale hydro has the ability to simultaneously Companies continue to innovate on the de-
Chinese company Huawei Cloud. provide a significant source of power while sign of hydro turbines. Turbulent, a Belgian
avoiding many of those pitfalls. engineering company, has developed an un-
Small Scale Hydro derwater vortex turbine capable of operating
Small scale hydro projects are allowing en- Hydro as a Water Battery in remote locations. With low maintenance
ergy suppliers across the globe to add more Hydro storage, or “pumped storage,” involves and water flow requirements, it is ideal for
renewable energy generation to their portfolio pumping water into uphill reservoirs when rural communities with simple irrigation.
without the need for massive, upfront invest- energy is cheap (or when renewables are op- Similarly, Emrgy is working on hydrokinetic
ments of capital. In California, a pilot program erating) and then allowing that water to flow turbines that can be dropped into canals
led by startup Emrgy places small, modular downhill and generate energy as needed. and other low pressure, low flow environ-
turbines into irrigation canals to produce Recently, large investments in the field have ments. Voith Hydro in Germany made ad-
modest amounts of electricity, between 2 been made across the globe. Switzerland justments to the centuries-old Pelton Wheel
and 10 megawatts. The turbines operate in just opened a 20-gigawatt-hour plant in the design, which allows its turbines to operate
a manner that does not require damming Swiss Alps that can transition from energy in a horizontal configuration, as opposed to
the water. This, paired with the fact that all storage to energy generation in less than 10 vertical. More injectors can be utilized in its
the canals used are pre-existing, means the minutes. In Utah, a $2.5 billion project broke operation, increasing its overall output. Addi-
impact to the local environment is minimal. ground that could provide 9GWh in capac- tionally, companies such as Natel are work-

CLEAN FUELS
Hydrogen has pursued similar coating-based improve- Biofuels
Hydrogen fuel technology has been around ments, focusing on alkaline electrolyzers. Biofuels encompass any fuel made or de-
since the 1950s, and for the past 75 years, it Meanwhile, American company TFP Hydrogen rived from organic matter—typically corn,
has served as the main propulsion source for has announced plans to scale up its electro- sugar cane, or soy. These fuels include etha-
spacefaring vehicles. Recent developments, lyzer coating capacity threefold over the next nol, biodiesel, and biogas. While biofuels rep-
including updated designs for hydrogen fuel year, up to 600 megawatts annually. Cana- resent an alternative to fossil fuels, concerns
cells, have reignited conversations of using da-based Loopflow has developed a new fuel have arisen over the amount of farmland
the fuel source closer to home. In particular, cell design with a unique geometry and flow needed to provide significant amounts of
“green hydrogen” (hydrogen fuel produced us- field properties that increase the stability of energy and the impact large scale operations
ing renewable energy), has been viewed as an internal conditions and efficiency. might have on food systems.
emissions-free alternative for long distance
New Base Materials Biofuels From Hemp
naval, aerial, and ground transportation. How-
ever, issues of economics and scale remain. Currently, hydrogen is typically extracted Hemp represents a unique opportunity for
from treated freshwater. As issues of water biofuels. It can be turned into multiple types
Reducing the Cost of Hydrogen Production scarcity continue to grow, hydrogen power of fuel (e.g., ethanol, methanol, biodiesel)
Researchers are making progress in reducing companies have sought to harness alter- and boasts one of the highest energy den-
the cost of green hydrogen generation. Many native sources. Efforts in Guam, the Nether- sities of any land-grown crop. However, the
of these efforts focus on improving the ma- lands, and Australia have focused on using plant’s association with cannabis is often
terials coating the electrodes used to extract seawater, both treated and untreated, for hy- seen as hindering widespread adoption
pure hydrogen from water. Separate research drogen generation. A large EU pilot program (industrial hemp has only a fraction of the
teams, both in Korea, have perfected pro- will explore using wastewater as a base ma- THC associated with recreational marijuana).
tective titanium oxide coatings that reduce terial. Other efforts are looking into an even A bipartisan bill in the US hopes to change Hemp’s high energy density makes it a great source
corrosion in the electrodes and have experi- more direct method: accessing “geologic hy- that by deregulating hemp and legally for biofuel.
mented with using cheaper iron nitride as a drogen,” or sources of pure hydrogen trapped decoupling it from cannabis. Meanwhile,
coating alternatives. An Oxford-based team in the earth, in gaseous or other forms. researchers at Texas A&M are breeding new

CLEAN FUELS
strains of hemp that are both suitable for Syngas From the Sun
the state’s dryer climates and fall within THC Synthesis gas, or syngas, is a mixture of
compliant ranges. hydrogen and carbon monoxide that can be
used as fuel and in the production of meth-
Biofuels From Algae
anol. Researchers at the University of Cam-
Through photosynthesis, certain kinds of bridge have devised a solar-powered reactor
algae can produce biofuel. As added bene- that extracts carbon dioxide from industrial
fits, they absorb carbon dioxide and grow waste, or even from the atmosphere, and
organically. In spite of this, scaling biofuel converts it into syngas using what they de-
extraction from algae is slow and expen- scribe as “artificial leaves.” By infusing ceria
sive. Researchers in Brazil have conducted (a common material used in syngas produc-
experiments with microalgae in which they tion) with a nickel catalyst, researchers at
“stress” the culture to induce it to make the University of Florida have demonstrated
more lipids, the key component in biofuel the ability to create syngas at lower tempera-
production. Other experiments have focused tures—700 degrees Celsius instead of 1,000
on genetically modifying algae to optimize degrees—a reduction that provides economic
their efficiency and survivability characteris- benefit to producers.
tics. United Airlines has invested $5 million
in biofuel startup Viridos, which focuses on
producing sustainable aviation fuel from
algae in seawater.
Scientists are exposing algae to stressors to increase lipid production, the key component for biofuels.

FOSSIL FUEL INNOVATION

Rededication of Contaminated Land blend fuel. Japan is turning coal into “clean US. Oil and gas companies will pay a fee if
Abandoned coal mines could be the solution hydrogen” through the Hydrogen Energy Sup- they emit more than 25,000 tons of carbon
to warming homes in Europe, where homes ply Chain project, which uses carbon capture dioxide equivalent per year into the atmo-
across the continent are sitting on top of old and storage technology and has attracted sphere, thus spurring innovations in meth-
mines filled with warm water. The water gets $2.35 billion in investment. Botswana is ane emission monitoring to avoid the fee.
warmer the deeper it goes and can be brought working with South African-based Sasol’s ex- A team of Princeton University researchers
up through boreholes, run through heat tensive coal resources to produce synthetic has developed extremely agile drones with
pumps and extractors to increase the tem- fuels to support Europe’s energy crisis. And remote-sensing lasers to detect gas leaks
perature even more, and then sent through in the UK, Net Zero Teesside Power is on track up to 25 times smaller than can be detected
heating networks to warm homes. Once the to be the world’s first commercial-scale using traditional methods. The drones only
water is used, it can be redirected back into gas-fired power station with carbon capture. require a small mirror and laser and can
the mines where it is heated again. The UK The project will drive the UK government to- be outfitted to measure other gases such
is currently exploring this project beginning ward its decarbonization goals and produce as carbon dioxide and ammonia as well as
with 12 preliminary boreholes in Glasgow. enough electricity to power 1.3 million homes methane. Swiss-based Distran, an innovator
per year. in ultrasonic camera technology to detect
Reducing the Carbon Footprint of Fossil Fuels gas leaks, has recently closed $8.3 million
Methane Emissions Reductions in funding to diversify their products and
In many countries, regulators and research-
ers are attempting new ways to reduce fossil Methane, a potent greenhouse gas, plays tap into new markets to expand the safety of
fuels’ impact on the climate crisis. The US a major role in trapping heat in the Earth’s industrial plants and reduce their environ-
Environment Protection Agency has proposed atmosphere. Recognizing its importance mental impact.
new regulations on limits for pollutants from as a driver of climate change, regulators
American coal and gas power plants, forcing and scientists are turning their attention
Abandoned coal mines could support warming
facilities to track and report emissions. Ko- to finding ways to reduce methane emis- homes in Europe.
rean companies have successfully operated sions. The Inflation Reduction Act contains
a gas turbine with a cleaner 60% hydrogen the first ever greenhouse gas fee in the

NEW NUCLEAR
Fusion attention of both private and public sectors. German startup Proxima Fusion has raised Laser-Driven Fusion
Long considered the “holy grail of energy Lawrence Livermore has already repeated— $8.6 million to pursue a twisting, new reac- Laser-driven fusion, also known as “inertial
production,” nuclear fusion technology would and improved upon—its initial experiment. tor design, one drastically different from the confinement fusion,” is a means of triggering
allow humans to emulate the atomic process Startups funded by tech millionaires have widely used, toroidal tokamak design. fusion reactions by firing high energy laser
that powers the stars. Most experimental fu- begun to enter the field. However, large ob- volleys at small pellets of deuterium and triti-
stacles remain—namely the massive amount Molten Salt Reactors
sion reactors today seek to fuse hydrogen at- um to increase temperature and pressure. Fol-
oms into helium, the same reaction our own of investment and lengthy timelines needed Although the idea of using molten salt as lowing the landmark net positive fusion reac-
sun has been conducting for billions of years. to develop the technology into something a coolant for nuclear fission reactors has tion from Lawrence Livermore in 2022, which
This reaction creates substantial amounts meaningful. Even the most generous esti- been around since the 1950s, it was more or utilized laser-driven ignition techniques,
of energy in the form of extremely fast mov- mates place large scale nuclear fusion over less abandoned as most commercialized additional funding is finding its way into
ing atomic particles, which can be converted 30 years away, a sobering reality check given nuclear installations opted for water cooling the space. Marvel Fusion, a German startup,
to heat and then used to power generators. the planet’s immediate need for sustainable instead. Now, companies and researchers plans to build a $150 million high-power laser
The only byproducts are heavier (potentially sources of energy. are revisiting the concept, seeing it as a way and fusion research facility at Colorado State
useful) elements and trace amounts of ra- to increase efficiency (by making it easier University. With an expected completion date
Privately led Fusion Projects to extract thermal energy), generate addi-
diation at harmless levels. Given the cosmic of 2026, the facility will be the most techno-
abundance of hydrogen, nuclear fusion would The US Department of Energy injected tional fissile material (which can then be logically capable research site for laser fusion
provide a virtually limitless source of energy. capital into a growing ecosystem of private used in subsequent reactions), and reduce energy and high-energy density physics.
fusion projects, by distributing $46 million radioactive waste. Researchers at MIT plan to
Fusion Momentum in funding to eight companies. Incumbent explore the practicality of molten salt reac- Small Modular Reactors
Following the Lawrence Livermore Nation- players, such as TAE Technologies, continue tors while companies such as Kairos Power Early in 2023, the US Nuclear Regulatory Com-
al Laboratory’s landmark achievement in to iterate and produce new reactor designs and TerraPower are developing commercial mission certified the first design for a small
2022, when researchers created the first while newer ventures, such as the Sam Alt- models. modular reactor capable of nuclear fission,
human-controlled, net-positive energy-pro- man-backed Helion, aim to bring a Silicon meaning utilities can now select it when
ducing fusion reaction, conversations around Valley-esque sense of disruption to the building a new power plant. This could repre-
the technology have reignited, capturing the industry by targeting small scale reactors. sent a major opportunity for new nuclear proj-

NEW NUCLEAR
ects, especially as a complementary solution

to less reliable emissions-free generation,
such as solar and wind. Conventional nuclear
power plants are bespoke, heavily site-de-
pendent, and must be constructed on-site.
These small modular reactors can be factory
made and integrate much more easily into
existing grids. The approved design is rated
at 50 megawatt output though the company
behind it, Nuscale, is hoping to get higher
capacity models approved soon.
Extraordinary sums of money continue to flow into nuclear fusion, however, timing for scaling remains elusive.

EMERGING FORMS OF ENERGY PRODUCTION

Energy From Thin Air Wave Power aquaculture, and renewable energy resourc- Mimicking Photosynthesis
New technology is being developed to create Wave power, or using wave energy to cre- es to maritime communities. Researchers at the University of Cambridge
clean energy from the materials in the Earth’s ate electricity, is a growing industry that is have made a groundbreaking discovery in the
Tidal Turbines
atmosphere. At KU Leuven University, Belgian expected to increase 4.7% to $30.44 million photosynthesis process that could change
researchers have created solar panels that by 2030. In Australia, Wave Swell Energy has Underwater, companies are turning the how we generate renewable energy and clean
produce hydrogen from the water vapor in the done this with floating devices. The com- movements of the tide into electricity. Scot- fuel. Photosynthesis powers a majority of
atmosphere and convert it into electricity via pany uses the concept of oscillating water land’s MeyGen tidal power project, an array life on Earth, and it was previously believed
a hydrogen fuel cell. The hydrogen panels will columns to power its turbines: As waves of four underwater turbines about 66 feet that the chemicals that can extract electrons
be on the market through the startup Solhyd; push water up and down into a hole at the below the ocean’s surface, has generated 50 occurred later in the photosynthesis process.
they can produce up to 250 liters of hydrogen bottom of the floating devices, the air in the gigawatt hours of electricity as of February However, researchers discovered it takes place
a day, and the gas can be stored in a tank space is pushed out of the device and in 2023, the first of its kind to do so. This is much earlier and pathways exist to move
to use later. At the University of Massachu- turn spins a turbine that creates electricity. roughly equivalent to the annual electrici- electrons that were previously unknown. This
setts Amherst, researchers have developed a Closer to shore, Eco Wave Power uses“float- ty consumption of 4,700 US homes. Off the new discovery opens up new ways of using
device that harnesses the same technology ers” that can be attached to existing man- coast of Eastport, Maine, Ocean Renewable power and the ability to mimic photosynthesis
as lightning, by using electricity generated made structures. These floaters rise and fall, Power Co. is beginning to test turbine gener- to create clean fuels from water and sunlight.
from water droplets passing through the moving a piston, accumulator, and hydraulic ators that could be commercially viable. The This ability to regulate photosynthesis could
generator’s porous material. The “air gener- motor to create power in a generator. The turbine will have a 12 month test period, and also increase crops’ ability to tolerate sunlight
ator,” or Air-gen, can make clean electricity company’s floaters were added at the Port of then the company plans to implement a full in a world facing climate change.
almost anywhere and runs only on ambient Los Angeles and are currently being scaled scale four turbine system further along the
humidity, providing a completely sustainable up; they could generate up to 69% of Cali- coast. There are also many other tidal energy
energy source. And in Australia, an enzyme fornia’s electricity production if fully scaled. startups that have secured substantial fund-
has been found by scientists that can do And on the support side, AWS Ocean Energy, ing, showing a trend in attention returning
something similar, by turning air into ener- who is currently working with Wave Energy to tidal power, including Sustainable Marine
gy. The enzyme, commonly found in soil, can Scotland, is providing technology and ser- Energy, which raised $11.3 million; Orbital
create electrical currents using low amounts vices for those in the marine energy industry. Marine Power, which raised $11.4 million; and
of hydrogen in the atmosphere. The company services oilfield infrastructure, Verdant Power, which raised $8.73 million.

ALTERNATIVES TO MINERALS AND RARE EARTHS

Local Sourcing such large scale operations, and the environ- rare earths. Vitesco Technologies, an electric
Chinese mines account for about 60% of mental impact is not well understood. vehicle parts manufacturer, has developed
the global supply of germanium and 80% of an “externally excited synchronous ma-
Alternative Materials chine” (ESM) motor design that can replace
gallium—minerals used in everything from
smartphones to electric car batteries. Last As another strategy to decrease dependen- the permanent magnet synchronous motor
year, in what appeared to be retaliation for cy on rare earths, researchers have begun (PSM) design that currently dominates the
American technology trade limitations, China developing alternative materials to replace EV market. In high-performance vehicles,
enacted heavy export restrictions on these them. A number of Japanese companies which often require larger or more powerful
materials, sending many nations scrambling claim to have developed valid substitutes magnets, the ESM design offers an econom-
to find alternate sources. These actions have in the magnet space. Proterial has produced ic advantage over the PSM design due to its
raised concerns that restrictions on rare a “high performance ferrite magnet” made reduced dependence on costly rare earth ele-
earths, which China also dominates (70% of from iron that claims to replace neodymium ments. Tesla has likewise announced a pow-
global production), might not be far behind. magnets in electric vehicle motors. Automo- ertrain design that reduces the company’s
As a result, in recent years Australia, Canada, tive parts manufacturer Denso has purport- dependence on rare earths, citing economic,
the US, and the EU have all invested in finding ed a similar breakthrough, making a magnet stability, and environmental motivations.
domestic sources of rare earths. For exam- using iron and nickel. Others have developed
ple, mining company Northern Minerals has a design using iron and samarium. It is per-
invested $80 million in the exploration of the haps not surprising that these companies
Browns Range in Western Australia and plans are all based in Japan; that nation was the
to use the site to add dysprosium and terbi- first to feel the brunt of China’s rare earth
um to its current offerings of neodymium and trade restrictions in 2010.
praseodymium. The demand for rare earths Countries are looking to diversify their sources for
Rare Earth Avoidance
has also kicked off a heated debate over deep rare earth and minerals.
sea mining and which countries can lay claim Certain manufacturers have attempted to
to the rich resources on the ocean floor; how- strengthen their supply chains by reducing,
ever, international law does not yet permit or completely eradicating, their need for

SCENARIOS
SCENARIO YEAR 2035
What If the World Runs on Thermal Energy?

In 2035, Thermal Symphony Networks power our world with renewable energy. This technology’s dual capabilities
are leveraging temperature contrast for clean electricity generation and provide heating and cooling with no mov-
ing parts. Initially designed to enhance urban energy production and efficiency where wind and solar were not as
easily integrated, Thermal Symphony Networks quickly transcended their purpose: sidewalks paved with thermo-
electric tiles captured footfall heat to power nearby buildings, and architectural facades lined with thermoelectric
panels balanced indoor temperatures while generating electricity.
As the networks gained traction, industries experienced a paradigm shift. Farmers established “Energy Orchards,”
where temperature-controlled environments enclosed by thermal tiles optimized crop growth while generating
power. Global maritime transport saw the implementation of thermoelectric ship coatings, converting tempera-
ture differences between ocean water and cargo into energy. Electric vehicles equipped with thermoelectric sys-
tems harnessed the heat generated during braking to recharge their batteries, extending their range. Airports
showcased runways embedded with thermoelectric materials, converting the temperature contrast between
asphalt and air into additional power for terminals.
The benefits of Thermal Symphony Networks even extend underwater: The technology’s heat exchange mecha-
nisms promote coral reef health, reversing the damage caused by rising sea temperatures.

ENERGY
INFRASTRUCTURE

ENERGY STORAGE
TPV Batteries energy to heat solid carbon blocks over 1,500 technology has also bridged the perfor- totype battery with a high energy density of
Given the inherent intermittency of wind and degrees Celsius, Antora can also provide its mance gap with materials like nickel and co- 500 watt-hours per kilogram. With a storage
solar power, electricity generated from these technology to industrial processes requiring balt. Our Next Energy, a startup, is launching capacity twice that of traditional lithium-ion
sources needs a more dependable energy high levels of heat. In line with the idea of production of lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries, these batteries offer the rapid dis-
storage system that would work irrespective ensuring high-temperature stability, a novel batteries in Michigan. It plans to expand charge capabilities necessary to be used in
of weather patterns. TPV batteries are one nanophotonic material—embodying struc- via a new $1.6 billion plant that will supply aircraft. Toyota has set its sights on launching
such solution to bottle and store renewable tural variations on a scale comparable to the 200,000 electric vehicles with LFP batteries solid-state batteries in its mass-produced
energy. wavelength of light—has shown promising by 2027. Among the larger companies, Ford EVs by 2027. The company has discovered a
potential for efficient production and control has chosen to license LFP battery technolo- new way to simplify the production of sol-
Experiments are being conducted across of thermal radiation. Scientists at the Law- gy from China-based CATL to provide more id-state batteries and enable shorter charge
the world to find storage alternatives that rence Berkeley National Lab and Scripps Re- cost-effective options for customers, while times with an extended driving range. Nio, an
are affordable, eco-friendly, and scalable. In search are also exploring new ways to handle General Motors is also exploring using LFPs EV company, in an update to its user manu-
Italy, Enel X and Magaldi Group are building high energy levels in extreme conditions. to cut costs. Delta has introduced an outdoor als, has introduced a new 150 kilowatt-hour
a 13-megawatt-hour thermal energy storage lithium-iron battery system meticulously semi-solid state battery pack alongside its
using patented fluidized sand bed technol- Iron Batteries tailored for megawatt-level energy storage existing battery lineup. The Nio ES6 model in
ogy. This stores heat that is then used to With its abundance, iron continues to be applications, addressing the pressing re- China will incorporate these solid-state bat-
release steam at 120-400 degrees Celsius. In a reliable source for energy storage, and quirements for grid ancillary services, solar teries. Factorial Energy, a solid-state battery
Spain, researchers created a battery that uses companies are devising new ways to use iron plus storage, and backup power assurance. developer, has forged collaborative partner-
renewable power to melt metals like silicon, batteries to do this on a large scale. Form En- ships with Hyundai, Kia, and Mercedes-Benz
storing latent heat that powers a thermopho- ergy, a startup, will supply iron-air batteries Solid State Batteries to implement its vision of scaling solid-state
tovoltaic generator to produce electricity. In to Xcel Energy’s 1-gigawatt-hour project that Introducing a groundbreaking leap in mak- technology by 2026. The company has expand-
the US, Antora Energy has innovated on TPV is slated for operation in 2025. Lithium-iron ing battery-powered flight a reality, NASA’s ed beyond the US to South Korea, Japan, and
(thermophotovoltaic) technology to convert batteries are also gaining popularity. While Solid-state Architecture Batteries for En- Germany. Furthermore, the realm of 3D-print-
carbon block light back into electricity, offer- their environmental and geopolitical signif- hanced Rechargeability and Safety (SABERS) ed solid-state batteries holds transformative
ing cost-effective and emissions-free heat icance has always been central to growth, team has unveiled a sulfur selenium pro- potential, promising enhanced energy storage
and power innovation. Using wind and solar solutions for various applications.

ENERGY STORAGE
Gravitational Energy Storage within laboratory settings, offering a sus- pled with an impressive life cycle of 50,000 to compress air into them, later releasing
In exploring innovative energy storage solu- tainable and environmentally friendly alter- cycles and higher safety standards. Addition- high-pressure air to generate power. Stan-
tions, gravitational energy is gaining trac- native to currently used materials. The US ally, a research group at Japan’s Osaka Met- ford University researchers have developed
tion as a way to create kinetic energy. Swiss Army collaborated with Lockheed Martin to ropolitan University has developed a highly a model to gauge the required compressed
company Energy Vault is nearing completion test a new flow battery that aims to store en- deformable solid electrolyte. Being touted air storage for deep decarbonization of power
of gravity battery installations in the US and ergy for a longer duration and at scale. Called as the world’s first bulk-type all-solid-state systems. Testing their model on California’s
China that are projected to produce 36 and GridStar Flow, this rechargeable flow battery capacitor, this capacitor can function at energy grid, the group has highlighted the
100 megawatts, respectively. Australian start- will use engineered electrolytes to charge high current densities and promises higher cost-effectiveness of compressed air storage
up Green Gravity has joined forces with min- itself. Energy Dome, an Italian startup, is us- efficiency and performance. on a dollars-per-kilowatt-hour basis as com-
ing contractor RUC to fast-track the adoption ing “CO2 Battery” to store energy. With fresh pared with other sources of energy.
funding secured, the tech company plans to Compressed Air Storage (CAES)
of its gravitational energy storage technology.
Their technology moves ultra-heavy weights operationalize two standard 20MW-200MWh These systems use high pressure air to spin
in mine shafts to turn turbines and create frames by the close of 2024. turbines and generate electricity. Current-
electricity. Meanwhile, UK-based Gravitricity ly, only two commercial CAES plants exist
Capacitors globally: the Huntorf plant in Germany and
is set to initiate pilot demonstrations of its
gravity energy storage systems in India, with Supercapacitors store and release electro- the McIntosh plant in Alabama. They utilize
plans for broader deployment in the future. chemical energy using a flow of electrons diabatic processes, where off-peak electrici-
between two conductive plates separated by ty compresses air for storage, later mixing it
Flow Batteries an electrolyte. Skeleton Technologies, an Es- with natural gas for combustion during peak
An emerging idea, flow batteries leverage the tonian company working on energy storage demand. Hydrostor, a Toronto-based develop-
flow of special liquids to generate electric technology, has introduced the SuperBattery, er, has devised an innovative plan scheduled
current. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory which combines the attributes of super- for completion in 2028; it involves drilling
is using β-cyclodextrin, a basic sugar extract- capacitors and batteries. This innovation three deep shafts that are about 100 yards
ed from starch, in a flow battery formulation. boasts an extraordinary charging speed 100 high and as long as two football fields. The
This innovative sugar can be synthesized times faster than lithium-ion batteries, cou- company will use excess renewable energy

ENERGY TRANSPORT
UHV Power Lines gen-doped lutetium hydride that was able to
Ultra high voltage (UHV) power lines can transmit electricity at low temperatures and
efficiently carry electricity over long distances pressure. However, the experiment couldn’t
with minimal loss, enabling energy optimi- be replicated. If successful, superconductors
zation across vast areas. While China leads could scale technologies such as levitating
UHV use, other countries and alliances across high-speed trains and make long-distance
the world are exploring projects to use this energy transport (including wind and solar
technology. One example is the North Sea energy) a feasible alternative. The SCARLET
Wind Power Hub, a collaboration from nine initiative, supported by the EU, unites 15
European countries to generate 120 gigawatts partners from seven countries to develop
of wind power by 2030 and 300GW by 2050. superconducting cables, enhancing cost-ef-
The project aims to support Europe’s transi- fective and efficient power transmission of
tion to a low-carbon energy system through renewable energy along with hydrogen in the
wind power and uses UHV transmission lines same pipeline. The project took off in Sep-
to interconnect the electricity grids of these tember 2022 at the Institute for Advanced
different countries. Beyond Europe, India, Bra- Sustainability Studies in Potsdam, Germany.
zil, and Russia are also exploring UHV imple- Focused on further improving long-distance
mentation. energy transmission through supercon-
ductors, SuperNode, an Irish renewables
Superconductors technology company, has partnered with
Superconductors can unlock high-speed en- CERN. CERN, a leader in superconductivity re-
ergy transportation without resistive loss. In search, will bring its cryogenic and vacuum
a feat first hailed as groundbreaking, scien- expertise to analyze sample materials and
tists at the University of Rochester seemed to subsystems.
have crafted a superconductor from nitro- Ultra high voltage power lines are needed to effectively distribute energy from renewable resources.

THE GRID
Dynamic Line Rating (DLR) Systems Balancing the Flow of Power Within the Grid ing based on this data. The project explicitly
With climate change, energy grids across the Balancing the flow of power within the highlights the importance of local and re-
globe are under more pressure, and grid oper- grid is important to ensure that electricity gional decision-making in decarbonization.
ators are increasingly using new technologies demand is met in real time with supply. The In Ireland, the transmission system operator
like dynamic line rating (DLR) systems to University of Applied Sciences of Western EirGrid has partnered with Smart Wires to
enhance the grid. Using sensors, the technol- Switzerland has pioneered an optimization implement advanced power flow control
ogy delivers real-time information on factors algorithm that can identify the coordinates devices that automate and optimize the
affecting grid performance, such as wind of electric current surges in power grids grid and increase the use of new renewable
speed and temperature. In the US, PPL Corp. without knowing the grid’s overall structure, energy.
has been sending hourly forecasts to PJM thus reducing outage costs. Another grid-en-
Interconnection, the regional transmission or- hancing technology is the Advanced Power
ganization, since 2022. UK’s National Grid has Flow Control, where devices can rapidly push
collaborated with LineVision, the only compa- or pull power from over or under-utilized
ny specializing in noncontact power line mon- lines within a transmission network. The Na-
itoring, to deploy sensors and a DLR platform. tional Grid Electricity Distribution, a project
This advancement aims to optimize grid aimed at decarbonization, has launched the
performance by accurately assessing power Planning Regional Infrastructure in a Digital
line conditions. In Australia, the Renewable Environment (PRIDE) project to bring togeth-
Energy Agency granted Infravision $732,000 er key stakeholders on a unified platform to
to support the development, testing, and trial analyze data and make decisions on energy
of the “Next Generation Line Monitoring Sys- systems. Collaborating with the West Mid-
tem,” thus enhancing electrical transmission lands Combined Authority and Advanced As the percentage of renewable energy in the grid
grid performance. Infrastructure, PRIDE explores the potential increases, we need smart technologies to ensure
of digital twins to understand the regional stable distribution and supply.
energy demands and enable decision-mak-

EMISSIONS
REMOVAL

CARBON CAPTURE & STORAGE

Natural CSS Direct Air Capture anese utility company Tokyo Gas is investing
One method of naturally removing carbon Directly capturing carbon dioxide from the in Global Thermostat in pursuit of its net-ze-
dioxide from the atmosphere is the mass atmosphere is expensive and requires a lot ro goal for decarbonization.
farming of seaweed, which sucks the gas of energy. But because the industry is so
CO2 Storage
from the air. However, a new study has re- visible and young, it’s attracting new innova-
vealed that the amount of seaweed needed to tors such as ex-Tesla Director Douglas Chan Denmark made history last March with
make an impact (a million square kilometers) who founded Climeworks with the goal of Project Greensand, which captured carbon
may be too much for turning this solution being able to remove carbon dioxide by the dioxide at a site in Belgium, transported
into a widespread strategy for combatting gigaton by 2050. Climeworks has announced the liquid gas to the Danish North Sea and
climate change. Mosses are showing sub- plans to scale up its US operations after suc- then injected it into the seabed at a depth
stantial promise after a new study revealed cessfully running several European plants. of about 1,800 meters. Project Greensand is
that moss-covered soil can store 6.43 billion California-based HolyGrail uses electrical- also working with Danish company Resen
metric tons more carbon in the soil beneath ly powered modular scrubbers to remove Waves, which created buoys that generate
it than soil can on its own. The total poten- carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and power through the ocean waves and can be
tial amount of carbon dioxide that could turn it into mineralized cubes, which can be used to monitor the seabed-injected carbon
be stored by mosses is about six times the stacked on top of each other above ground. dioxide, detect leaks, and also work as Wi-Fi
annual global emissions caused by activities Global Thermostat is at the forefront of car- hotspots at sea. The project 44.01, involving
such as deforestation, urbanization, and min- bon removal technology and has unveiled its partners Abu Dhabi National Oil Co., Fujairah
ing. A French startup is trying to grow geneti- new Direct Air Capture machine—one of their Natural Resources Corp., and Abu Dhabi Fu-
cally modified house plants to better filter the largest yet, the unit can remove 1,000 tons a ture Energy Co., eliminates carbon dioxide by
air around them. In Georgia, foresters have year. The company provides customers with turning it into a solid rock formation. It is the
begun planting acres of the first genetically the main components and associated de- first mineralization project to use seawater
Seaweed captures carbon, but it’s questionable if
engineered trees, which are designed to grow sign plans of the machine, so that the actual and the first carbon-negative project by a there is enough to make an impact.
faster and capture more carbon than their building and implementation can be done by Middle Eastern energy company.
traditional counterparts. a construction company of their choice. Jap-

CARBON CAPTURE & STORAGE

CCS-as-a-Service turns agricultural remnants into bio-oil, will
As the demand for carbon capture and be getting $53 million from carbon-removal
sequestration services increases, CCS-as-a- credits to turn its agricultural waste into oil
service business models continue to spread. that can lock up carbon dioxide for a million
EnQuest, a UK oil and gas company, secured years and be stored underground.
carbon storage licenses from North Sea Tran-
sition Authority in the UK’s first-ever carbon
sequestration licenses. The company plans
to ship carbon dioxide in liquid form to the
Sullom Voe Terminal in Shetland, a 1,000-acre
future carbon storage hub, before sending it
via an existing pipeline for injection and per-
manent offshore storage. Due to the flexibility
of shipping carbon dioxide in liquid form, this
should make it easier for EnQuest to service
more isolated carbon emitters that may not
otherwise have access to this type of stor-
age. Ørsted’s Asnæs biomass power station
and Northern Lights JV have signed a carbon
dioxide Transport and Services Agreement
to store 430,000 tons per year of biogenic
carbon dioxide from two Danish power plants.
This is a major milestone for both the Euro-
pean commercial CCS market and Northern
Lights JV. Charm Industrial, a company that First carbon storage licenses have been secured for the North Sea.

CARBON UTILIZATION
Carbon-Based Food dioxide from the atmosphere with a ther- Chemical Production
Traditional farming methods cause mass mochemical process, purifies it, adds green The research team at RWTH Aachen has
damage to our environment in the forms of hydrogen to create atmospheric methane, developed a new chemical reaction that uses
habitat loss and deforestation—using up and then puts it in specialized chambers carbon dioxide in the creation of a chemical
land, drying up water sources, and releasing where diamond material can begin to form. compound called aromatic carboxylic acids.
a third of all greenhouse gas emissions. Solar The diamond material is cut and polished This compound has a variety of uses from
Foods wants to change that by making food with traditional methods and can be placed herbicides to plastics—but most important-
directly from carbon dioxide. The company is in a variety of jewelry from engagement rings ly, it is used in medicine. In the pharmaceuti-
aiming to start production in 2024 in the first to earrings. The diamonds themselves are cal industry, a common type of aromatic car-
commercial-scale factory in Finland. Solar carbon-negative. boxylic acid is salicylic acid, which is used in
Foods’ technology involves bacteria that use aspirin. The RWTH Aachen team’s discovery
Hair Care, Soap, and Laundry Detergent
hydrogen as their energy source; it creates a not only opens the door to many new indus-
yellow powder that is 70% protein and can re- Theoretically, carbon can be sequestered tries but creates the opportunity to utilize
place animal sourced proteins, such as eggs in household products, and CleanCO2 has waste carbon dioxide and more sustainably
in noodles and pasta. The process will use found a way to do that. The company cap- turn it into a chemical compound that can
200 times less land, 600 times less water, tures carbon dioxide from building heating be used globally.
and emit up to 200 times less carbon dioxide systems using a device called CarbinX and
than traditional protein sources. processes it into potassium carbonate (a
non-toxic pearl ash). This pearl ash is used
Diamonds in the soap formula to create a sudsy lather
Diamonds come with a shady history that when used, and ends up in everyday products
can frequently involve corrupt governments such as hair care, soaps, and laundry deter-
US Company Aether is manufacturing
and exploitative working conditions. Aether is gents. Founded in Alberta, Canada, the com- carbon-negative diamonds.
providing a completely conflict-free option by pany has now expanded to the US and Japan
making diamonds out of atmospheric carbon and is deploying its CarbinX units globally.
dioxide. The US company captures carbon

CARBON TRACKING
Funding Influx partners in order to quickly reduce carbon sion to decarbonize federal buildings, and using the app, which is still in its beta phase.
The rapidly growing climate technology emissions in supply chains. EY has released nZero, a carbon management and account- While it is only in the UK, the company plans
industry is facing an overall mass increase the beta version of EY OpsChain ESG on its ing platform, is at the forefront. The company to scale the app to the EU and the US. Ameri-
in funding initiatives. Microsoft’s Climate EY Blockchain SaaS Platform; the product will track federal buildings’ electricity usage can Express and MasterCard have introduced
Innovation Fund has pledged to distribute $1 will provide verifiable and accurate carbon in real time in an effort to make them net-ze- an emissions tracker for consumers to see
billion by 2024, and Amazon’s Climate Pledge dioxide emissions information and allow ro. The agency, along with the US Department how their actions, habits, and spending be-
Fund has pledged $2 billion; these projects clearer tracking of an enterprise’s carbon of Energy, will invest $30 million toward this haviors impact their personal carbon footprint
vary from concrete that can trap atmospher- footprint, providing companies and regula- net-zero buildings goal. The EU enacted its based on purchases. Google Flights and Uber
ic carbon to portable batteries that could tors with a transparent, trusted platform for Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive, have also rolled out emissions data tools for
replace diesel-burning generators. Venture carbon emission and credit traceability. Mi- which requires companies to report scope individual consumer tracking. Australian bank
capitalists are investing more than $140 mil- crosoft has introduced the Microsoft Cloud 3 (indirect emissions) and double materi- Westpac developed a tool with Cogo, a car-
lion in startups, resulting in unprecedented for Sustainability to help organizations ality—the implications on the company’s bon footprint management fintech, that will
funds for climate technology: Persefoni raised more easily track their emissions and is financial value as well as impact to the provide customers with personalized carbon
$114 million, Watershed raised $85 million, continuing to add capabilities and updates environment and world overall. This directive emissions trackers based on their spending.
SINAI raised $36 million, and Sphera raised to the platform, including a way to track also includes stricter rules on corporation’s The bank hopes the transparency will help
$21 million. indirect carbon emissions that frequently social and environmental disclosures. close the knowledge gaps that are preventing
go untracked. Amazon Web Services has individuals from making more sustainable
Tracking Platforms customizable solutions that use AI, machine Individual Consumer Tracking decisions. Consumers can also track their
Large, established companies are seeing the learning, data analytics, and the Internet of A variety of new tools are encouraging indi- waste using Bintracker, a software company,
value in carbon tracking software, and many Things to capture, analyze, and manage a vidual consumers to consider carbon foot- that uses QR codes to track waste streams
are creating their own or expanding their company’s sustainability data. print when making decisions. Reewild, a UK down to individual tenants and then analyzes
services to cover carbon data. SAP’s Sustain- company, has created an app for consumers, and reports on trends and data down to the
Government Investment and Regulation food brands, and retailers to see the carbon source, day, and composition.
ability Data Exchange will allow companies
to securely exchange sustainability data in The US General Services Administration’s footprint of a variety of food products. They
a standardized format with suppliers and Green Proving Ground program is on a mis- simply need to scan an item’s barcode while

SCENARIOS
SCENARIO YEAR 2050
What If CO2 Is the Foundation for Consumer Products?

In the year 2050, consumer goods conglomerates such as Walmart and Amazon have utilized the scaling of nan-
otechnology to not only effectively integrate carbon capture, utilization, and storage into their operations but also
to provide the delivery of personalized products at scale. A network of specialized nanobots, which the compa-
nies release into the atmosphere en masse, attract and bind carbon dioxide molecules from the atmosphere and
transport them to central processing units. Within these central processing units, the carbon dioxide is convert-
ed into versatile carbon-based raw materials that can be tailored to various applications. The processing units
receive customer orders within a 30-mile radius in real time and are equipped with hundreds of 3D printers, as
well as a wide range of other raw materials and chemical components. Based on the order of each customer, the
carbon dioxide raw materials are integrated into the appropriate material concoction and printed into everything
from highly specific building components to carbon-based foods and intricate consumer goods.

EMISSIONS
REDUCTIONS

GREEN PROCESSES
CONSTRUCTION struction, which can create housing for one- partnership between Eco Material Technolo-
Carbon Neutral or Negative Building tenth the cost and half the waste. gies—a cement alternatives company—and
Materials Hive 3D—an automated construction com-
3D Printed Houses pany. The result will be a building process
From plant-based building materials to more
sustainable concrete, companies are exper- The use of 3D printing methods to build which will emit 92% fewer emissions and
imenting with new ways to construct build- housing is expanding rapidly, and the use cost 30%-40% less than a traditional con-
ings. Plantd, a sustainable building materials of natural materials is expanding with it struction project of the same size.
company, creates strong, moisture resistant thanks to designers Ronald Rael and Virgin-
carbon-negative building materials from ia San Fratello. They created Potterware, a
fast-growing perennial grass. With $10 million browser-based application that allows for 3D
from recent funding, Plantd’s products will designing without the need to understand
provide a direct substitute for traditional 3D modeling software; it also allows the
home construction materials and lock in 80% use of natural materials such as clay, salt,
of the atmospheric carbon dioxide the plants mud, sawdust, or Chardonnay grape skins
captured in the field. Elsewhere, a new type of in designing and printing. In Europe, the
engineered wood that traps carbon dioxide, continent’s largest 3D printed building is
strengthens the material for use in construc- being built in Heidelberg, Germany, to house
tion—the natural material goes through a a data center. The construction is expected
process that makes it carbon dioxide-sorbent to take 140 working hours of robots apply-
and stronger than its more natural state. The ing layers of concrete, instead of dozens of
company MAA’VA is creating eco-concrete, human workers. In Round Top, Texas, the
a sustainable carbon negative construction seasonal tourist town is about to see five
Companies are increasingly using materials such
material, by transforming nonplastic and vacation rental homes that are being called as clay and sawdust for the 3D printing of houses.
plastic waste. This eco-concrete is adaptable the world’s first “near-zero-carbon, 3D-print-
to both conventional and 3D printing con- ed homes.” These homes are the result of a

GREEN PROCESSES
HEAVY INDUSTRIES (Steel, Chemicals) technology to the steel industry within the Physics Laboratory has applied “nanowhis-
Steel and Iron next two to three years. The US has a goal of kers,” aluminum-based membranes that
a net-zero steel sector and is on its way to attract PFAS contaminants and are designed
Steel production is responsible for 7%-9%
that, claiming to have the cleanest global with a cost-effective coating. Northwestern
of the world’s total carbon emissions, and
emissions footprint due to the steel it pro- University chemists have found a process
investments in green steel companies are
duces being roughly 70% made from recycled that uses low temperatures and common,
ramping up. While more resources are com-
scrap. inexpensive reagents can remove two major
ing into the industry than product rolling out,
types of PFAS chemicals and leave them as
that may soon change. Hydrogen is playing Chemicals benign products—this powerful solution
a role in advancing the steel refinement
As US regulators move to restrict two forever from a simple technique could be the key
process: The first large-scale green steel
chemicals in drinking water, companies are to removing the chemicals at a large scale.
production plant is being built by H2 Green
experimenting with the technology to do it. University of British Columbia has also dis-
Steel in Sweden, aiming to cut greenhouse
Also known by their proper name of perfluo- covered a scalable solution in the form of a
gas emissions by 95% during the production
roalkyl and polyfluoroalkyl substances, PFAS filter that uses a unique absorbing material
process. Using hydrogen technology instead
are in everything from waterproof clothing to to trap and hold the chemicals.
of blast furnaces, the plant plans to start
dental floss and can cause cancer, liver dam-
shipping its first commercial batches of
age, fertility problems and more. While the
steel by 2025. Across Europe, companies like
removal of these chemicals with convention-
France’s GravitHy, Germany’s Thyssenkrupp,
al filtering techniques is nearly infeasible
and Spain’s ArcelorMittal are constructing hy-
and can be costly, researchers at Fraunhofer
drogen-based plants. Another advancement
Institute for Interfacial Engineering and Bio-
to soon enter the steel industry is the use of
technology IGB have found a way to use plas-
Molten Oxide Electrolysis, a process that uses A variety of research institutions have come up
ma-based technology to reduce the chemi- with promising filtering systems to remove forever
electricity to separate oxygen from iron ore,
cal’s molecular chains and remove them at a chemicals from our ecosystem.
leaving oxygen instead of carbon dioxide as a
low cost. Johns Hopkins University’s Applied
byproduct. Boston Metal hopes to bring this

GREEN PROCESSES
AGRICULTURE Fertilizer Innovation CRISPR Edited Crops Waste
Plants Without Plants New developments in fertilizer technology CRISPR is a technique that allows for the Organic waste used to be something to be
are helping ensure stronger, healthier editing (such as addition or deletion) of an disposed of, but now opportunities are arising
Novella is creating plants without the whole
plants—and experimenting with new uses organism’s DNA—it’s a different technology to utilize this material in new ways. Wasted,
plant by growing botanical ingredients with
for waste material. EnGeniousAg has re- from what’s used in genetically modified or- a Vermont-based company, created portable
necessary macronutrients through nutrient
ceived a grant of $1 million to create soil ganisms, or GMOs. While many international toilets that transport the human waste it
cultivation—no plant needed. This will help
nitrogen sensors that are low cost, provide governments have strict GMO regulations, captures to nutrient recovery facilities that
address the increasing demand for neces-
instant readouts, and can help farmers they’ve responded differently to crops that process the waste and turn it into fertilizer.
sary macronutrients, help overcome supply
measure nitrogen levels in their crops in a have genes edited with CRISPR. Under a new Mill Industries is doing something similar but
chain disruptions, expand plant’s life cycles,
matter of seconds. Along the same lines, law, the UK will allow for gene-edited crops with household waste. The company offers a
and reduce climate impact. While typically a
startup Phospholutions recently won the to be planted, Canada will not regulate crops food waste bin and service for $33 a month
majority of a plant could be discarded, just to
Africa AgTech Startup Showcase by show- that have gone through changes, and the where the bin will collect, grind, and dehy-
get to the specific bioactive compounds, this
ing fertilizer efficiency can be increased to European Commission is considering next drate the organic matter. The company then
avoids that waste. This process costs less,
maintain crop yield by reducing the phos- to no regulation for genetically modified notifies the owner when the material, in the
wastes less, and provides more safe, natural
phorus in it by 50%. Tracegrow Oy, a Finnish crops. This is a dramatic change from the consistency of coffee grounds, needs to be
botanicals without chemical additives than
cleantech startup set to expand operations, European Commission’s previous stance, shipped to a processing facility to be turned
current processes, rising to meet the global
is creating certified organic fertilizer from which put in place an intense and expensive into chicken feed.
demand.
alkaline batteries. Taking the used batteries, approval process for such crops. But regula-
extracting micronutrients needed by crops, tors see a lot of possibilities in gene-edited
and placing them in fertilizer has not only crops, including saving many from famine
enhanced crop productivity but also reduced due to climate change and high demand
carbon dioxide emissions compared to tra- for food. Already, gene editing is beginning
ditional fertilizers. to help expand the yield and temperature
resistance of staple foods like rice and cow-
peas to meet demand.

DIGITAL EMISSIONS
Reducing Carbon Emissions Measuring Emissions
The increased interest in machine learning With Google employing the “4Ms,” the rest of
has also raised questions about the carbon the tech giants are also stepping up to ad-
footprint of developing and using such tech- dress emissions from devices. Taken togeth-
nology. Google published the “4Ms”—Model, er, all devices globally linked via the internet
Machine, Mechanization, and Map Optimiza- have a similar electric consumption to that
tion—four practices the company believes can of the entire country of France. Amazon, Meta,
reduce emissions involved in machine learn- Microsoft, Samsung, and Sky have teamed
ing by 1,000 times and energy by 100 times. up with the Carbon Trust to set an industry
Model refers to selecting model archetypes standard for measuring and cutting carbon
for machine learning that can produce quality emissions from their devices while they are
while reducing computation by 3-10 times. being used by consumers. The group aims
Machine refers to using processors specifi- to find a baseline to report energy efficiency
cally for machine learning that can improve improvements, apply technology to reduce
energy efficiency by 2-5 times. Mechanization energy use of connected devices, and drive
refers to using cloud computing in data cen- toward its ultimate goal of industry-wide net
ters customized for that type of processing zero emissions. Researchers from the Lough-
which use higher efficiency servers resulting borough Business School have also created
in less emissions. Finally, Map Optimization a new tool that helps businesses determine
refers to allowing customers to select loca- the carbon footprint of their data and allows
tions with the cleanest energy, which will them to create data strategies that are envi-
increase demand and thus the growth of such ronmentally sustainable.
green data centers, reducing carbon footprint
by 5-10 times.
Google hopes to reduce emissions caused by machine learning by 1000 times through its 4M practice.

RECYCLING
AI Waste-Sorting Robots Food Plastic
AI’s accuracy is being used to improve the Organic waste in landfills eventually builds The startup Norbite uses the greater wax
sorting of recycling in order to cut costs. up, breaks down, and produces methane, moth (Galleria mellonella), which naturally
After a two year trial, Google’s AI-driven recy- a powerful greenhouse gas. The company digests plastic, to get rid of the material. It
cling-sorting robots have showcased a high Divert recently received $1 billion to increase also uses the moth’s larvae for a variety of
degree of accuracy. The reinforcement learn- the use of microbes to break down this or- products, such as protein for animal feed,
ing system used on the robots in the study ganic waste; this process is called anaerobic and the moth’s feces for biofertilizer. Re-
increased accuracy by providing feedback digestion, and it could help reduce the 40% searchers at Leipzig University have discov-
through rewards and penalties, and the AI of methane released from landfills by avoid- ered an enzyme that can degrade lightweight
improved the robots’ decisions to maximize ing sending the waste there in the first place. PET plastic packaging. The enzyme is able
the amount of rewards received. A UK start- Another method is biohydrogen production, to compost this plastic type at a higher
up, Recycleye, has developed an AI-based which turns waste into a renewable, clean efficiency than previously seen in other en-
waste-sorting robot, which recently won $17 energy source. Many processes can be used zymes, including those discovered in Japan
million in funding. The robot uses “vision” in this production but all use microorgan- in 2012 that were dubbed “plastic eaters.”
to sort waste into plastics, aluminum, card- isms to break down organic waste materials Enzyme PHL7 was discovered to be the
board, and paper with greater accuracy than and create hydrogen gas. Water is the only fastest enzyme to break down PET plastic by
humans. Recycleye also announced a part- byproduct. 90% in 16 hours, and the byproduct of this
nership with Il Solco, an Italian company enzyme can be rebuilt into new plastic.
that plans to use the AI-based waste-sorting
robots in that country.
The greater wax moth digests plastic, the feces can

be used for biofertilizer.

GREEN MATERIALS
Cross-Laminated Timber and carbon-storing capacity. Besides being Mushroom Plastic were originally believed to be an unfortunate
Cross-Laminated Timber is a minimum of strong, the cross-laminated timber panels New research has focused on the fungus byproduct. But reevaluations of the durability
three layers of timber glued together with provided such air sealing that heating or Fomes fomentarius and the way its multi- of Roman concrete structures have concluded
grains that cross. Typically, timber can be- cooling the interior space would only require ple layers could soon replace a multitude of that this was an intentional choice: As cracks
come structurally unsound if enough force is one-third of the typical amount of energy. plastic products. The mushroom has three formed in concrete, the liquid that reached
applied along its grain, but with cross-lam- layers: a hard outer layer, a soft middle layer, these lime clasts would reactivate calcium
Mycelium sources and create calcium carbonate to refill
inated timber this is far less of an issue. and an inner layer similar to the texture of
The material is lightweight, has increased Mycelium, a natural fiber from mushrooms, wood. These multiple layers can potentially the cracks and keep the structure sound. Now,
strength, and has even shown to have a can be used as a plastic alternative in items be used in many different products, from researchers are experimenting with engineer-
higher resilience to seismic forces than tra- such as textiles, building materials, pack- windshield impact-resistant coating using ing different materials to similarly heal them-
ditional timber. But the product is also a way aging, and health care products. Completely the hard outer layer to leather-like materials selves. While performing experiments on how
to use smaller trees, the types of trees that biodegradable, this material can be used to using the soft middle layer. Led by a scien- cracks form and spread, researchers at New
are usually removed from forests in order to replace plastics such as polyester, building tist from VTT Technical Research Centre of Mexico’s Sandia National Laboratories saw
make them less prone to fire. Mercer Mass polymers, concrete, packing materials, and Finland, a research team was able to create cracks in copper and platinum spontaneously
Timber, a company that specializes in CLT, is threaded wound covers. Mushroom Inc. is fo- prototype headphones using the mush- heal. The team believes this self-healing could
preparing for an increase in demand due to cused on finding new ways to use mycelium room’s structure. The applications for the be engineered into metals to react this way to
building codes in Oregon, Washington, and hyphae to reduce toxic plastics and waste different parts of this mushroom are vast, stress and cracks. At North Carolina State Uni-
California now classifying it as a new class of while creating more carbon-neutral prod- and the researchers’ hope is that this will versity, researchers have created self-healing
construction. OPAL Architecture has created ucts. Researchers at Newcastle University soon be the more sustainable alternative to composite material that allows its structures
a unique, all-electric home using cross-lam- have been able to grow construction mate- many plastics. to be repaired in place without having to be
inated timber and wood-fiberboard insula- rials using mycocrete, a composite paste of removed from service. There is also research
tion to achieve the goal of creating a home mycelium. Using a knitted framework, the Self-Healing Materials underway to create self-healing plastic at the
with the lowest-possible carbon output. The composite is fed and allowed to grow until There’s a lot of historical precedent in this University of Michigan, and scientists have
Maine-based company cited the new timbers it reaches the needed density, and then it is field—ancient Roman concrete structures successfully created self-healing solar pan-
as the only material that would work due to dried out and used as an eco-friendly alter- have long been known to be self-healing. els for use in outer space using the mineral
its structural capacity, dimensional stability, native to plastic, timber, or foam. The structures contain lime clasts, which perovskite.

GREEN MATERIALS
Lab Grown Leather leather “skin” in a lab without any need for
Vegan leather is becoming more popular as a animals. The company believes that lab-
sustainable alternative to traditional leather, grown leather technology could be mar-
but the material typically uses polyurethane ket-ready in five years.
which is toxic. The material innovation com-
pany Von Holzhausen has created Liquidplant,
a top coating for textiles that can help make
vegan leather more durable without using
harmful chemicals. Other companies are ex-
perimenting with using different materials for
vegan leather, including TômTex’s work with
shrimp shells. Using shrimp shells ground
into flakes and then turned into a liquid, the
company is creating vegan leather for wallets,
mimicking leather and its durability without
any petrochemicals. ProjectEx, a Singapore
lab-grown exotic leather producer, is aiming
to raise $1 million in order to create a sustain-
able, cruelty free exotic leather for the luxury
market. The first leathers are expected within
two years of completed funding with plans of
scaling afterwards. The project is a partner-
ship between designer Adrian Furstenburg
and deep-tech startup Cellivate Technologies.
And 3D Bio-Tissues has successfully grown A Singapore project aims to create cruelty free exotic leather.

GREEN TRANSPORT
Micromobility Cars Heavy Trucks Tesla’s purchase of Wiferion, a German-based
Micromobility refers to compact personal Until now, charging electric vehicles (EV) has Truck platooning, where one driver and truck wireless charging company, further signals
transportation, like bicycles, skates, and been the primary way of keeping them on the are connected to a convoy of autonomous that the technology is prone to enter passen-
scooters, and companies are making it easier road. But startup Ample has a battery-swap trucks via a network and drive close behind ger driving sooner rather than later.
for people to use these devices for greener system that can swap out an empty EV each other, could ease passenger traffic on
Trains
daily commutes. French-based startup At- battery for a fresh one in 5 minutes, far less motorways. This use of autonomous vehicles
mosGear has created the first set of electric than batteries take to charge. With many would increase fuel efficiency through lesser Sun-Ways is making trains green by going be-
inline skates; they have a range of 20 miles other companies pursuing the idea, battery air resistance and would save costs for long- yond the locomotives themselves. The compa-
on a fully charged battery that is stored in a swapping could bring the ease of a gas sta- haul trucking. This technology is in the trial ny is using the spaces between railway tracks
fanny pack, bringing back the Rollerblading tion to EVs on the road. For combustion cars, phase in several countries and could soon to lay out solar panels “like carpet.” Sun-Ways
aesthetic. The skates connect to the battery there may be a new alternative that can keep see the road, with an expected cost savings estimates that a terawatt-hour of solar energy
via a wire that travels down the back of the them on the road in the EU despite the 2035 of up to 45% compared to today’s trucks per year could be produced from the national
leg and allows the wearer to go up to 20 mph. deadline to phase out polluting vehicles— and drivers. Wireless charging is another rail network in Switzerland, equivalent to 2%
Another startup increasing micromobility running on e-fuels. E-fuels are synthetic fu- technology that so far has been mainly ex- of the country’s total energy consumption.
options is electric bike and scooter company els made from hydrogen and carbon dioxide, plored within freight transport. Electreon, a Meanwhile, Polish company Nevomo is ex-
Yulu. Its app shows rentable scooters’ avail- and can be processed in today’s combustion company specializing in charging electrical ploring hyperloop-inspired technology for the
ability in real time. Lime is doing something engines. While e-fuels do still emit carbon vehicles in motion, has an agreement with potential future of rail freight. Nevomo uses
similar by focusing on electric scooters and dioxide when they are burned, the amount France to equip a portion of a southwest MagRail technology, magnetic propulsion that
bike-sharing. The California startup is a lead- taken out of the atmosphere to produce Paris motorway with its Wireless Electric could be a traction enhancer. While capacity,
er in the space, and is operating in 250 cities the fuel offsets the amount that is created Road System. Currently pursuing similar reliability, and frequency are more important
across 30 countries. It has backing from Uber when the fuel is burnt. Luxury car company projects in Sweden, Germany, Italy, and factors than speed for rail freight, this tech-
and other investors that could help this start- Porsche has also created its own synthetic the US, the company says its product will nology could have a revolutionary impact on
up expand even more. fuel made of carbon dioxide and water that increase power transfer capacity and include the industry—especially considering it would
can be used in its current cars. The Porsche real-time monitoring software for all types allow trains to work on both the company’s
e-fuel is among the many seeing the poten- and classes of vehicles. However, for now MagRail system and traditional tracks. Nev-
tial in the fuel market. the focus remains on commercial EV fleets. omo also signed a deal with the French rail

GREEN TRANSPORT
operator SNCF to evaluate if its technology Ocean

can increase train efficiency and capacity. With shipping being such a large part of
global trade, many ships are looking to
Air
reduce their carbon footprint due to new car-
When it comes to air travel, any part, no bon efficiency regulations. To do this, many
matter how small, can make a big difference. are looking to wind and developing wind pro-
SWING has its focus on the front flaps of pulsion technologies to decrease fuel usage.
planes, creating them out of thermoplas- US food company Cargill announced it will
tic polymers and decreasing their weight install two folding sails in its bulk carrier’s
by about 20%. While this is just a first step deck, and container shipping group Maersk
with this type of material, SWING hopes that installed two 30 meter-high rotor sails on
eventually the polymers could be used to one of its tanker ships. In an effort to make
craft entire aircrafts, reducing emissions by fuel cleaner, a viscosity meter has been de-
up to 20%. Autonomous aircrafts could first veloped to test the oil used in ship engines,
see their application with unmanned cargo which is typically full of impurities. The ultra-
planes. Dronamics, a UK-based company, sound device is meant to improve shipboard
released of one of the first unmanned car- monitoring and lower the cost.
go aircrafts at the end of 2023. The aircraft
takes less time to operate, saves money, and
emits less carbon dioxide than traditional
cargo freight, catering to underserved areas
and multiple industries. Startup ZeroAvia has
completed a record test flight in a 19-seat air-
craft half powered by hydrogen fuel cells. With
investment from commercial airlines, it’s now Tankers might soon be equipped with sails to make them more fuel efficient.
looking to move into commercial tests.

ENVIRONMENTAL
MANIPULATION

EARTH
Rewilding: Animals/Nature 1,000 hectares in a decade. Citizen-driven immense financial prospects. At the Nation-
Countries across the world are initiating initiatives are also growing. Designer Kiki al Black-Footed Ferret Conservation Center
rewilding efforts, an ecological restoration Grammatopoulos has introduced “Rewild the in Colorado, Dr. Della Garelle of the US Fish
approach that involves restoring natural Run,” featuring bristly running shoe out- and Wildlife Service is spearheading the
ecosystems and habitats by reintroducing soles that aid plant and seed dispersion in revival of America’s endangered ferrets. Over
native plant and animal species. A NASA-sup- cities. Agricultural rewilding has also grown, 4,000 genetically similar ferrets have been
ported initiative in Idaho uses remote sens- combining rewilding with agriculture to released into the wild since 1991; this helps
ing data to forecast the streams that could maintain food self-sufficiency and promote ecosystem restoration, but the limited gene
support beavers and monitor the biodiversity sustainable and ethical high-quality meat pool makes them vulnerable to disease. To
shift once beaver populations are introduced. production. maximize breeding success, biologist Robyn
In the Netherlands, Marker Wadden is a Bortner picks and matches ferrets based on
Bioengineering their genes. In this context, the San Diego
1,300-hectare archipelago built with the mud
and sand of the lake that now houses diverse Scientists predict that almost a quarter of Frozen Zoo is essential, as it leads the de-ex-
plants, fish, insects, and breeding birds. all species on Earth are at risk of being lost tinction field with the world’s largest living
Meanwhile, Scotland, aiming to be the world’s within the next few decades. De-extinction animal cell bank, enabling DNA collection
first rewilded nation, has created countrywide is a scientific method to bring back and and storage for future restoration efforts.
wild lands and natural corridors. This re- resurrect extinct or close to extinct spe-
For more on rewilding in cities and municipal-
building of ecosystems in Scotland has been cies. Organizations like nonprofit Revive &
ities, please see our the Rewilding trend in our
enabled by land ownership laws that allow a Restore and for-profit Colossal Bioscience,
Built Environment book.
few to own most of the land. (In contrast, in are pioneering these efforts. For instance,
Ireland, where land ownership is limited to Colossal is using gene editing to revive
several acres, natural woodlands make up the dodo bird, while Revive is focused on
The black footed ferret is one of the species that is
only 1% of the island, compared to 80% long the passenger pigeon. In both cases, the being rewilded in the US.
ago.) In Mexico, tequila company Tromba newly created animal will be a hybrid and
strives to rewild and reforest land damaged not a replica of the predecessor, qualifying
by blue agave over-cultivation, targeting for patent protection and thus producing

SKY
Geoengineering Solar Geoengineering ing up with innovation, MIT scientists have chemical powder to stimulate rain in clouds.
Geoengineering refers to environmental Still in a nascent stage, solar geoengineer- proposed a unique approach to use a fleet Experimentation continues in other countries
manipulation—manipulation of Earth’s ing is very controversial. It theorizes that by of “space bubbles” to reflect sunlight from as well with diverse seeding materials. The
resources including oceans, rivers, soil, and reflecting more sunlight into space, global space instead of injecting particles into the United Arab Emirates, at the forefront of inno-
atmosphere. Although it’s in an early stage of warming can be controlled, but countries atmosphere, potentially reducing harmful vation, has been using cloud seeding for more
development, geoengineering technology is and international institutions are grap- effects. Meanwhile, startups are considering than two decades, leading to a 25% annual
already being commercialized, leading to crit- pling with how to regulate the space. The iron particle spraying above the ocean to increase in optimal precipitation. Researchers
icism from scientists across the world. The US government, recognizing the need for combat climate change by breaking down are now employing nanotechnology and har-
regulation around it is also mired in conflict, further research, has proposed a study of methane, a natural phenomenon that may nessing algorithms to optimize cloud seeding
with different countries adopting contrasting risks associated with deploying solar geoen- have influenced ice ages. However, scientists conditions, and they are exploring the use of
approaches. In Mexico, the company Make gineering techniques. The EU, while formally stress that more fundamental research is drones to amplify the efforts. In Texas, Dan
Sunsets is sending gas-filled balloons into disqualifying solar geoengineering as a needed before considering large-scale imple- Martin from the Department of Agriculture’s
the atmosphere and selling “cooling credits” climate solution, also recognizes the need to mentations. Agricultural Research Service is investigating
without much scientific validation. The lack deepen understanding of the implications the use of electrically charged particles to trig-
Cloud Seeding ger cloud condensation. In an experiment, an
of regulation is allowing such companies to associated with the technology. More recent-
function despite low credibility. On the other ly, the United Nations convened a panel of Cloud seeding is a decades-old weather aircraft with tanks of water released a spray
hand, the European Union is grappling with climate experts to deliberate international modification technique that enhances pre- of electrically-charged water particles into the
the complexities of this issue and consid- regulation of the stratosphere, stressing cipitation by dispersing specialized particles cloud to see its effect on precipitation. The
ering potential regulations. Meanwhile, in the need to manage risks associated with into the atmosphere. With increased focus United Kingdom, meanwhile, is pioneering the
China, geoengineering is being considered as spraying aerosols to reflect sunlight. In the on climate change, new and improved cloud use of electrical pulses as a potential seeding
a tool for hybrid warfare strategy. Especially in UK, a first-of-its-kind solar geoengineering seeding techniques are being developed and technique.
the realm of regional geopolitics, China could test flight has been conducted, showcasing embraced across the world, including in the
amplify its gray zone capabilities and use ongoing exploration of the concept. As a part US, China, Russia, and parts of the Middle
weather modification for military purposes, of it, scientists launched a high-altitude East. India recently made strides in this
obstructing river water flow, and even creat- weather balloon into the stratosphere that is field by embarking on its first cloud-seed-
ing artificial islands. low-cost, controllable and recoverable. Keep- ing initiative where an aircraft released

OCEAN
Microplastics the Port of Rotterdam, where 17 Reefy Reef- water. Researchers at University of California, proper oversight and safeguarding against
Innovative ideas are surfacing in the battle Blocks have been successfully installed in Santa Barbara have recently been exploring ecological consequences.
against microplastic pollution, offering hope the river Meuse. The project experiments a proposal to enhance ocean alkalinity for
with innovative nature-based wave barriers accelerated carbon sequestration. By enrich- Gene Editing
for a cleaner ocean. One such initiative, GoJel-
ly, harnesses the mucus produced by jellyfish to safeguard the shores from the impact of ing the ocean with minerals and increasing Gene editing coral refers to the scientific
species to craft filters that effectively trap large ship waves while preserving and re- alkalinity, they aim to stimulate geologic practice of using advanced genetic engineer-
plastic particles from wastewater, preventing storing regional biodiversity. By reviving the processes that efficiently remove carbon ing techniques to modify the DNA of corals.
their entry into the ocean. The project is inno- intertidal environment, the living breakwater dioxide from the atmosphere. Promisingly, The goal is to introduce specific changes to its
vatively using the growing jellyfish population provides a vital sanctuary for migratory fish their study reveals that crucial plankton genetic code, which can enhance its resilience
to curb microplastics. Another breakthrough species like sturgeons and European eels, groups in the marine food chain respond to environmental stressors, such as rising sea
comes in the form of sound wave technology. facilitating their journey between the Atlan- positively to this treatment, encouraging temperatures, ocean acidification, and dis-
Recent research reveals that pulsing sound tic Ocean and major European rivers. In New further research in this climate change inter- ease. Scientists, including Carnegie Science’s
waves can efficiently dislodge microplastics York, the “Living Breakwaters” project off the vention. Despite the positive outlook, con- Amanda Tinoco, have employed genome
from the ocean’s depth including tiny small south shore of Staten Island aims to protect cerns have increased about using minerals editing tools to unlock a pivotal discovery in
specks that may otherwise be easy to miss. coastal communities and promote ecologi- such as basalt to increase the alkalinity of coral development. Their research highlights
The team experimented with a prototype cal restoration by creating habitats for ma- seawater: These methods may disrupt nu- the significance of a specific gene known as
comprising sturdy 8 millimeter steel tubes rine life and fostering biodiversity. Encom- trient cycles and affect marine ecosystems. SLC4γ, which is essential for the growth of
and a powerful transducer. With the sound passing a series of eight in-water structures Acknowledging the significance of marine skeletons in young coral colonies. This gene,
waves, even the small particles vibrated and stretching 2,400 linear feet, the project was geoengineering in climate change mitiga- exclusive to stony corals, encodes a protein re-
accumulated. initially slated for completion by the end of tion, the Australian Labor government has sponsible for transporting bicarbonate across
2024 but is currently ahead of schedule. taken a proactive step by introducing a bill cellular membranes, a crucial process in coral
Living Breakwater to regulate “marine geoengineering” activi- skeleton formation. This breakthrough offers
Ocean Chemistry ties. The proposed legislation seeks to gov- opportunities for further research into coral
Living Breakwater is an innovative approach
to coastal protection and ecological resto- Ocean chemistry is a multidisciplinary field ern and control interventions in the ocean resilience and conservation strategies.
ration that utilizes nature-based solutions. A that delves into the chemical processes and environment. Listed marine geoengineering
remarkable milestone has been achieved in composition of Earth’s biggest bodies of activities would require permits, ensuring

SCENARIOS
SCENARIO YEAR 2045
What If a Sunshield Leads to a New World Order?

As the effects of climate change became more dire and governing bodies noticed that conventional climate mit-
igation efforts would not be sufficient to prevent catastrophic impacts to their populations, the most impacted
nations launched “Project Celestial Shield.” The core of this initiative involved launching an array of solar reflec-
tors into space, positioned to intercept a portion of the sun’s energy and redirect it away from Earth to counter
rising global temperatures. Initially celebrated as a revolutionary solution, Project Celestial Shield successfully
attenuated the planet’s temperature rise. However, with the reduced influx of solar energy, regions that once relied
on specific temperature patterns faced abrupt shifts in climate. Agricultural cycles even in thriving regions have
been disrupted, leading to decreased crop yields and global food shortages. Ecosystems accustomed to specific
temperature ranges experienced upheaval, resulting in mass migration of species and a ripple effect throughout
food chains.
As atmospheric dynamics adjusted to the altered energy balance, unforeseen weather patterns have emerged.
Rainfall distribution has dramatically shifted, causing both unexpected droughts and deluges in areas previously
not affected by these extreme weather events. Diplomatic tensions are high as the geopolitical power dynamics
fundamentally shifted in response to the newly defined ecological realities, resetting the political stage for the
coming decades.

EFFECTS OF
CLIMATE CHANGE

MONITORING CLIMATE CHANGE

Emissions isting aerial and ground-based methods. The and Huawei have introduced machine-learn- enhance infrastructure resilience to flooding.
With increasing recognition of greenhouse core instrument of MethaneSAT is a spec- ing methods capable of predicting weath- Additionally, real-time flood sensors devel-
gases (GHGs) as a significant driver of trometer, a sophisticated device capable of er patterns as accurately as conventional oped by the FloodSense project at NYU and the
climate change, there is a pressing need to precisely detecting methane concentrations. methods and with much greater speed. How- CUNY Advanced Science Research Center aim
reduce these emissions. The United Nations’ By monitoring methane emissions at a ever, given the unpredictability associated to provide hyperlocal street-level flood event
World Meteorological Organization (WMO) global scale with higher speed and efficien- with future weather events, it remains to be information to stakeholders, including policy-
is taking the lead in ensuring standard- cy, MethaneSAT can shed light on emissions’ seen if these AI-powered forecasting models makers, government agencies, emergency re-
ized, real-time tracking of GHGs that can be sources, pinpointing areas for targeted cli- trained on historical weather data can make sponse teams, and citizens. In the face of hur-
used to influence policy making. WMO uses mate mitigation strategies. proficient predictions. For extreme heat, Goo- ricanes, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric
weather prediction and climate analysis to gle is taking a proactive approach by part- Administration is equipping forecasters with
Extreme Weather nering with the Global Heat Health Informa- a new model called the Hurricane Analysis
monitor greenhouse gases in an integrated
framework. Another initiative is the Global The increasing frequency and severity of ex- tion Network to push notifications to users and Forecast System. The model offers ear-
Greenhouse Gas Watch, where WMO is collab- treme weather events is causing significant in affected locations. Addressing flooding lier warnings of rapid intensification and
orating with the global greenhouse gas mon- challenges for insurers and communities risks, companies like C2S are leveraging improved predictions of impacts like rainfall
itoring community to ensure sustained and worldwide. In states like Florida and Califor- technology to help insurers better under- and storm surge, empowering communities to
regular monitoring of GHGs. In this context, nia, insurance companies are withdrawing stand and underwrite flood risk and monitor better prepare for and respond to hurricanes.
methane, a potent greenhouse gas, is import- from offering homeowner insurance due to flood events in real time. Using machine
the growing risks associated with extreme learning, the company analyzes data from Crops
ant. Scientists posit that 60% of atmospheric
methane results from human actions. To weather events like hurricanes and wildfires. satellites, historical flood maps, and on-the- In Africa, scientists are using artificial in-
better monitor methane emissions, Harvard In Germany, insurers are demanding that ground intelligence to provide insights into telligence to predict the yields of vital crops
researchers, private space companies, activ- house-building cease in flood-prone areas flood extent and impact. by harnessing satellite remote sensing and
ists, and philanthropists are launching the to mitigate potential damages. More accu- machine learning. The tool can analyze vast
In another initiative to decrease flooding
MethaneSAT project. Scheduled for 2024, the rate weather prediction could be helpful in agricultural landscapes, providing real-time
risks, the National Digital Twin program is
satellite will revolutionize methane moni- such cases. Recent advancements in artifi- predictions of crop yields and offering farmers
creating an interactive demonstrator tool to
toring by providing a comprehensive view of cial intelligence have shown promise so far: and policymakers valuable insights into crop
showcase how connected digital twins can
emissions across vast areas, surpassing ex- Researchers from Nvidia, Google DeepMind, productivity.

MONITORING CLIMATE CHANGE

Community-based Efforts coast a day in advance, safeguarding lives egy, furthering the goals of green and digital
With climate change becoming a global and livelihoods. transitions and contributing to a sustain-
phenomenon, community movements have able future.
Digital Twins of Earth
grown. In an attempt to make climate mod-
eling easy, researchers from Northwestern To tackle climate change, researchers are
University and Argonne National Laboratory experimenting with digital twins of Earth as
have deployed Nvidia’s Jetson-driven Wag- part of a strategy to combat warming. The
gle devices worldwide. Waggle is an open- Nvidia Earth-2 initiative’s digital twins could
source platform, empowering scientists and revolutionize weather predictions, climate
researchers globally to join climate studies projections, and the development of effec-
using edge computing and sensors. The tive mitigation and adaptation strategies
platform collects hyperlocal climate data, en- using data-driven analysis at the global
abling communities to access crucial infor- scale. Powered by machine learning and
mation for climate resilience. Parallely, a new accelerated computing, this groundbreaking
collaborative, is blending indigenous knowl- project uses the largest supercomputing
edge with earth science to bolster climate re- systems to make unprecedented advance-
silience in vulnerable coastal communities by ments in weather information and climate
bringing indigenous knowledge-holders and emulation. The European Commission’s flag-
university-trained scientists together. In In- ship initiative, DestinE, is equally ambitious.
dia, a crowdsourced initiative brought togeth- Using technology to ensure high accuracy,
er community scientists and professional local detail, access-to-information speed,
researchers to develop a meteorology-based and interactivity, this digital model of the
A digital twin of the earth is aiding with strategies
landslide prediction system called “Satark” Earth will monitor, simulate, and predict in- against global warming.
for India’s Western Ghats mountain range. teractions between natural phenomena and
With an impressive 76.5% accuracy, Satark human activities. It aligns with the European
predicts landslides along the southwestern Commission’s Green Deal and Digital Strat-

LIVING IN A NEW REALITY

Floating Cities the amount of green areas and building contract, and crack. Recently, scientists from adigm for a sustainable and forward-looking
The Institute for Economics and Peace pre- footprint.” Equitism is the idea of an eco- Northwestern University have verified this urban lifestyle.
dicts that by 2050, more than 1 billion people nomic model empowering citizens with land phenomenon based on data from sensors
ownership. Inspired by this idea, billionaire in urban basements, subway tunnels, and Domed Cities
may have to deal with inadequate infrastruc-
ture due to sea-level rise. Floating cities will Marc Lore aims to establish a new American underground parking garages. The study Cities with sealed bio-domes that control air
thus become a part of our new living reality. city called Telosa to “set a global standard for predicts that underground climate change in temperature, air composition, and air quality
Projects like Oceanix City in Busan, South urban living, expand human potential, and cities poses long-term challenges for urban are also being explored as a potential solution
Korea, Baltic Sea islands developed by Blue21, become a blueprint for future generations.” structures, and researchers anticipate these for cities affected by climate change. Saudi
and Maldives Floating City are great early ex- While the exact location is yet to be deter- issues will persist for years. Arabia’s Prince Mohammed bin Salman has a
amples of this. Oceanix, in fact, is built from mined, the city’s design by Bjarke Ingels new vision for the country’s capital in line with
Group places pedestrians and bikers at the Indonesia’s New Capital this idea: it will include a redesigned down-
biorock with the ability to self-sustain and
self-repair. Another example is Waterbuurt, forefront, supplemented by a few “slow-mov- Acknowledging climate change as an essen- town with a 400-meter-high cube or “Mukaab.”
or the Water District, in Amsterdam, where ing autonomous vehicles.” Sustainability tial issue, Indonesia is building a new cap- The cube will offer its residents immersive
100 floating houses have been built by Dutch is at the city’s core, with renewable energy, ital—Nusantara—that aims to transcend typi- experiences, including changing landscapes
architect Marlies Rohmer on Lake Eimer. protected green spaces, and on-site water cal planned cities. The intent is to fulfill the and holographic technology. The project is
recycling. Targeting a population of 5 million Indonesian president’s vision of “a new work called “New Murabba” and is scheduled to be
Other Concepts for Cities by 2050, Telosa is poised to redefine the par- ethic, new mind-set, new green economy.” It ready by 2030. The city Riyadh will expand by
Smart Forest City, an ambitious project by adigm of urban development. will stand as a green metropolis powered by 19 square kilometers as a part of the project.
Italian architect Stefano Boeri, was revealed in renewable energy, free from suffocating traf- The country also has other futuristic projects
Underground Climate Change fic jams, offering serene paths for strolling underway, including Neom City, which plans to
2019 near Cancún. This visionary metropolis,
deeply rooted in the region’s Mayan heritage Underground climate change is a silent and biking amid lush greenery. Embodying include robot maids, flying taxis, and a giant
and culture’s reverence for nature, is designed hazard. In general, cities and urban areas adaptation to a warming planet, the high- artificial moon and The Line, a huge project
to house 7.5 million plants, creating a harmo- release and hold heat more than rural areas. tech city, also known as I.K.N., intends to that will house 9 million people.
nious blend of urban living and green spaces. As cities heat up, the ground also traps more attract digital nomads and millennials, who
The company behind the project says the heat, affecting building foundations and, in will embrace cryptocurrency to invest in chic
goal is to create a “perfect balance between some cases, leading the ground to expand, apartments. Nusantara seeks to set a par-

CLIMATE
ECONOMY

CARBON CREDITS
Investment From Traditional Banks on data provided by new companies, namely one that is simply greenwashing. Sylvera, a Measuring Carbon Sequestration
Interest in carbon credits and green investing startups, that enter the industry. The Integ- UK-based startup, is on a mission to provide The New Acre Project, which recently partnered
has increased as companies strive toward rity Council for the Voluntary Carbon Market transparency and trust to carbon offset proj- with Albo Climate and ALUS, is an investment
their net-zero emissions goals. Nine global and the Voluntary Carbon Markets Integri- ects by using data and assigning ratings to platform for corporations that is identifying
banks have invested $45 million toward scal- ty Initiative are joining together to craft a the projects. Its goal is to ensure the projects carbon stocks and sequestration for trees
ing a new platform called Carbonplace that market integrity framework. This framework with the best credibility receive investments using a remote sensing-based platform. This
will be able to handle more transactions of is built to instill confidence in investors in order to make a real climate impact. The AI-powered product will be directed at four
voluntary credits and make it easier for bank using the Voluntary Carbon Market for their company’s recently closed Series B funding Canadian provinces: Alberta, Ontario, Quebec,
customers to participate. Carbonplace will carbon credits and ensure top quality of all of $57 million will be used for US expansion. and Saskatchewan. The participating sites are
connect credit buyers and sellers through the companies on the market. Governments are private lands managed by ranchers and farm-
beginning to create their own frameworks as Blockchain Integration
banks. The investors, UBS, National Australia ers in the ALUS program. The credits will be
Bank, BNP Paribas, and Itaú Unibanco among well, with the EU creating a Carbon Removal CarbonKerma is a platform that is embrac- “ecosystem credits” and will allow investment
them, have invested $5 million each in the Certification Framework, which will influ- ing blockchain technology and combining it in any project that involves carbon removal,
interest of accelerating corporate climate ence the rules set in the Voluntary Carbon with a carbon capture marketplace in order biodiversity, and other environmental benefits
change through visible and secure means. Market. Xilva, a Swiss company, is pursuing to provide companies with trackable, quality, to the provinces.
a similar verification but specifically for measurable carbon credits. The platform’s
Verification Methodology forest projects. The company provides an listed credits are highly regulated and vetted
With increased interest in carbon credits, evidence-based assessment of a project’s through a stringent process. CarbonKerma
it’s necessary to make sure the methods are impact by considering multiple criteria such offers a deeply needed value to the market:
sound to avoid greenwashing. One compa- as economic viability, ecological integrity, transparency. Each credit can be tracked,
ny, Isometric, is planning to do just that by and social equity in order to provide a holis- traded and, once removed from circulation,
launching a platform that can vet carbon tic assessment on their platform. retired to never be used again. The visibility
removal companies and review new ones. and auditability of this platform provides full
Focus on Asset Management transparency along with reputable carbon
It will include a list of fully verified carbon
removal companies and the ability for scien- Investors are frequently unsure if their removal companies to ensure the quality of
tists and researchers to view and comment credits are going to a verified company or carbon removal.

BLUE ECONOMY
Blue Economy after venture launcher Triggering Exponen- used. In a space that is used by so many, so sensors and cameras, and relay it instantly to
The term “blue economy,” originally champi- tial Climate Action awarded $55,000 to frequently, and is home to so much wildlife, researchers. The company’s robot vehicles can
oned by developing small-island countries seven startups to make an economic impact conflicts of interest are bound to arise when travel on the surface of the ocean for months
including Fiji, Palau, and the Bahamas, was at a local level. it comes to ocean activities. MSP serves without stopping, producing carbon dioxide,
coined to describe the benefits of ocean as a clearly defined line for any disputes to making noise, or risking oil spills.
Blue Carbon Offsets ensure that all activities remain sustainable.
industries. This includes establishing and
Blue Carbon Offsets are the management of It is frequently used to detect marine life or Data Platforms
supporting socially equitable ocean spaces
and industries, ensuring they are environ- marshes, mangroves, kelp, and seagrasses habitats and restrict building to the oceans’ Cognizant, a technology services and con-
mentally sustainable, and that they can have in ocean ecosystems for carbon offsetting. least impactful locations. MSP is frequent- sulting company, has partnered with Tidal
an economic profit. The US highlighted a Indonesia and the World Economic Forum ly used by Manna Farms, a fish farming to make the company’s ocean information
newly launched global initiative at the Our have signed an agreement aimed at im- company, to ensure their practices remain platform available to the wider aquaculture
Ocean Conference, which would total more proving the country’s efforts by supporting sustainable. market to allow companies to make more
than $800 million to protect its ocean and a blue carbon roadmap. The blue carbon informed decisions. Tidal uses machine learn-
credit financing will help ocean conserva- Foundational Data US ing, artificial intelligence, underwater percep-
support developing countries. The initiative
focuses on securing and protecting marine tion and restoration efforts. Researchers in The National Oceanic and Atmospheric tion, and automation innovations to gather
areas and improving the resilience of coast- China called the “Blue Carbon Catchers” are Administration is providing free and open- and analyze data sets. True Ocean, a German
al areas that could be impacted by climate a collaboration between Tencent’s Carbon source ocean and coastal data that pro- company, is also looking to provide compa-
change. European ports have received fund- Neutrality Lab and Xiamen University. The vides a perfect foundation for the future nies with more maritime information and has
ing from the European Maritime and Fisheries group is dedicated to understanding the blue economy. This data is used by a broad already become a prominent maritime data
Fund through the Atlantic Smart Ports Blue ocean’s capacity to act as a carbon sink and variety of organizations, from federal, state, platform. The platform offers solutions for
Acceleration Network to support the growth of the future of its capacity. and local governments, to academia and data processing and management, empower-
new and sustainable business at more than business and especially offshore aquacul- ing organizations to see the value of the data
Ocean Land Mapping ture and wind farms. Open Ocean Robotics, a they hold by providing a suite of services with
40 ports to grow the blue economy. The goal is
to reduce the current carbon footprint of the Marine Spatial Planning (MSP) is the ocean Canadian company, received $1.75 million to the goal of increasing efficiency and sustain-
port and increase the diversity of activities. equivalent of land zoning planning and is create an uncrewed, solar-powered surface able practices, and facilitating more educated
Africa’s blue economy is receiving attention helping to ensure the ocean is sustainably vehicle that can capture information via decision-making.

BLUE ECONOMY
Fishing Desalination
GAIN (Green Aquaculture Intensification in Ocean Oasis, a Norwegian company, has
Europe) is an EU project that has monitors found a way to use the oceans’ natural wave
and sensors located around fish farms and power to produce fresh water. The company
placed into fish to help track and under- uses waves off Norway’s coast to power their
stand the activities in the farms. Paired with desalinator units and then fresh water is
machine learning and IBM analytics, this sent to shore through pipes along the ocean
real-time information will help farmers make floor. This method of producing fresh water
more informed decisions when it comes is sustainable and creates no emissions.
to protecting fish, as well as detecting and EVOVE in the UK has developed technology
preventing problems such as fish escapes, to make the desalination process of water
environmental issues, and excess feed. There easier. Its Direct Lithium Extraction system
is also an increase in transparency in the life removes the lithium from highly salinated
journey of fish, from the farm to the table. water which increases the ease of the desali-
Atea, with the partnership of the Norwegian nation process. The company is aiming to
Seafood Association and IBM, is bringing this scale its technology to provide more efficient
transparency by using the blockchain to track desalination processes on a global scale.
Norwegian salmon’s journey including buyers
and trips through customs. They believe that
transparency is the key to sustainability and
engaging society’s awareness.
North Sea waves are aiding Nowergian company Ocean Oasis to desalinate water without causing emissions.

AUTHORS &
CONTRIBUTORS

Co-authors
EMMA MILLER
CHRISTINA VON MESSLING
Senior Manager NICHOLAS IMBRIGLIA
MAHAK CHHAJER
Christina von Messling leads our European client portfolio and our
Life Sciences practice area at Future Today Institute. She is re-
Chief Executive Officer
nowned for her expertise in strategic foresight and an unparalleled
AMY WEBB
ability to navigate complex industry landscapes. With a career
spanning over two decades, she has guided multinational corpora-
Managing Director
tions through transformative strategies, leveraging his deep understanding of market dynamics and
MELANIE SUBIN
future trends.
Creative Director
Christina’s diverse experience across sectors enables her to craft visionary scenarios and strate-
EMILY CAUFIELD
gies, driving sustainable growth and innovation for clients worldwide. Having split her time between
Europe, the UK, Brazil, and the US, she combines a global perspective with in-depth, holistic expertise
Editor
of the main drivers of change: technology, geopolitical, economic, and societal developments. She ERICA PETERSON
has advised leading pharmaceutical and healthcare companies, as well as beauty, entertainment,
media, and retail brands. Copy Editor
SARAH JOHNSON
Christina is a coach in the strategic foresight MBA course at the NYU Stern School of Business. She
holds a Masters in Law from the Freie Universität Berlin, where she graduated within the top 10% of Director of Operations
the nation. She works from offices in New York City, Berlin, and London. CHERYL COONEY

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MOBILITY • ROBOTICS • DRONES

TECH MOBILITY, ROBOTICS & DRONES
TABLE OF CONTENTS
402 Top Headlines 416 Mass Market Goes Custom 424 CarOS 432 Cobots Become Coworkers 440 Natural Exoskeleton Movement
403 State of Play 417 Incentive-Driven Investments 425 Scenario: What if expanded 432 Accelerated Adoption 440 Superhuman Abilities
417 Global Battery Belts vehicle capabilities 432 General Purpose Robots 440 Personal Mobility
404 Key Events
redefine the nature of home
405 Likely Near Term 417 Battery Recycling ownership? 433 Robots in the Home 441 Humanoid Robots
Developments 418 Better Batteries 433 Robots Coexisting with 441 Soft Robotics/Getting a Grip
426 Data Collection Enables Safety
Creative Applications
406 Why Mobility, Robotics 418 Solar Vehicles and Autonomy 442 Robot “Eyes”
& Drones Trends Matter 434 Space Robots and Drones
418 Shifts in the Servicing Model 426 Mobility Simulation 443 Scenario: The Evolution of
to Your Organization 435 Robot and Drone Disaster Response Robotics
419 Electrification Expands to 426 Self-Aware Vehicles
407 When Will Mobility, Other Vehicles Infrastructure
444 Taking Cues From Nature
Robotics & Drones Trends 426 Pilot and Passenger
420 Vehicle Charging Scales 435 Robot Compiling and Training
Impact Your Organization? Observation 444 Quadrupedal Robots
420 Charging Gets A Roadmap 435 Robot and Drone Swarms
408 Opportunities and Threats 427 Mobile Weather Stations 444 Necrobotics
420 Charging Standardization 435 Drone Fleets
427 Mobility Superapps 444 Using Live Organisms
420 Redefining the Roadside 436 Drone Traffic Management (Ethically)
To Consider 427 Utilizing Mobility Data
421 Electrifying Cities 437 Scenario: Drone Harvests 444 Insect-Like and Animal-Like
410 Central Themes 427 Relying on ADAS
Designs
421 EVs At Home 438 Moving People, Pets
412 Ones To Watch 428 Pedestrian Concerns
And Objects 445 Fluid Movement
422 Bidirectional Charging 428 AV Viability
413 Important Terms 438 Last-Mile Delivery 446 Moving Across Modalities
423 Immersive Vehicles Connect 429 Local AV Regulations
415 Mobility Trends 438 Expanded Payload Capacity 447 Scenario: Self-Regulating and
to Other Ecosystems
429 Robotaxi Growth Repairable Robots
416 Electrification Transforms 423 Livable Cabins 439 Flying Taxis (eVTOLs)
Mobility Ecosystems 430 Scenario: Personal Everything 448 Authors
423 Simulated Driving Experience 439 Ocean-Faring Drones
Mobility Platforms
416 Decarbonizing Mobility 450 Selected Sources
423 In-Vehicle Connectivity 440 Blurring The Human-Machine
431 Robotics & Drones Trends
416 Automaker Restructuring Line
424 Mobile Entertainment Hubs

TOP HEADLINES 01 Demand for Customization Outweighs Supply Chain Delays

Even as supply chains bounce back from extreme conditions, customers have indicated
they are willing to wait for what they want, impacting traditional business models.
The mobility, robotics,
and drones industries 02 Vehicles Are No Longer a Private Refuge
While vehicles have traditionally functioned as a utility to get us from point A to point B,
are building on their they are now following and integrating into our digital lives, eliminating one of the last
spaces that was not immersed in tech.
substantial gains
of the past year to 03 Battery Capacity Drives Capability
increase capabilities The expanded capacity and shifting form factors of emerging battery technology are
enabling units to go further, faster and take on a higher compute load to enhance their
and capacity. capabilities and communication.
04 General Purpose, Yet Impressive, Results

General-purpose robots are moving closer to reality. As bots become more capable,
they will be more versatile, able to execute on a variety of different tasks.
05 Cobots Merely Supplement Staff, for Now

Assistive robots promise to help humans be more efficient at their jobs and supplement
a shrinking labor force, but as bots improve, inevitably, they will eliminate the need for
humans to conduct certain tasks.
STATE While the diverse industries of mobility, robotics, and drones have prominent dif-
ferences impacting each domain, they also have common drivers. Electrification
remains a major driver of change for all of them thanks to the support of consumer
OF PLAY
and ESG (environmental, social, corporate governance) demands, coupled with glob-
al, legislative shifts bringing an electric future to the forefront.
Fully autonomous systems are still on the horizon, especially for automobiles, but
systems are becoming smarter and more alive. A wealth of data is proving to be
foundational for molding these systems, and virtual and simulated testing environ-
ments are increasingly being used to teach them before they are placed in real-world
environments.
Overcoming challenges to Although these systems are getting smarter, they are still fraught with challenges.
electrify and bring about the age There is a vast dichotomy between those that have been successfully testing and
expanding in select US markets, while others have been forced to halt real-world
of smarter, autonomous systems. operations after too many public failures.
Similarly, in the world of robotics, a general purpose, fully autonomous humanoid

robot has long been a dream of many and presented as a holy grail of innovation.
However, while there are early signals of such robots, they are unlikely to fully super-
sede the human workforce any time soon, with most job replacement coming from
functional robots with a limited task set. Contrastingly, drones have already been
successfully impacted by autonomous systems and are seeing annual capability
enhancements across commercial and consumer sectors.
The bifurcation of these industries will likely continue as the world pushes to bring
about electrified replacements for billions of vehicles and impart autonomy to make
vehicles, robots, and drones smart enough to drive real efficiency gains across the
marketplace.

KEY EVENTS
M AY 2 5 , 2 0 2 3 AU G U S T 1 4 , 2 0 2 3 O C TO B E R 3 0, 2 0 2 3
Ford Teams Up with Tesla Self-driving Cars Block Ambulance Cruise Suspends Robotaxis
The automakers align to use Two autonomous cars prevent an The GM business puts a stop to
the NACS plug, promoting ambulance from getting to a crash operations in Arizona and Texas,
industry standardization for site, delaying an injured pedestrian’s after having to halt operations
charging. transport. in San Francisco.
AU G U S T 0 4 , 2 0 2 3 S E P T E M B E R 1 9, 2 0 2 3
Ukrainian Drone Attack AI Masters Complex Tasks in Hours

A Ukrainian drone with 450kg Toyota Research Institute engineers
TNT hits a Russian Navy base use generative AI to teach robots new
in the Black Sea, damaging a skills quickly and with dexterity.
docked warship.


MORE CERTAINTY IN COMPLEX SYSTEMS Continued Connectedness Supply Chain Disruptions Persist Viability of Drone Traffic Management
In the immediate future, a wave of Automobiles are only becoming more con- Even as the supply of vehicles and chips for The escalating use of drones and eVTOLs has
transformative development is poised nected. This will impact advanced driver robotics stabilizes, manufacturers and sellers necessitated advanced traffic management
to reshape our world across various assistance systems as well as infotainment should still brace for continued supply chain solutions. As various regions have put mea-
domains. From the continued integra- within the cabin. Automobiles will be less disruptions. Additionally, chip nationalism sures in place, the viability of ubiquitous drone
isolating as drivers and passengers seam- and other geopolitical factors will also threat- use will be determined in the short term.
tion of connectivity in automobiles— lessly expand how they connect to their lives en supplies of goods.
fueling advanced driver assistance outside the car.
systems and enriched in-car expe-
riences—to the pressing challenges Challenges to the Grid New Modalities for Robotics Clarity on Robotaxis
facing our electrical grids as we pivot
As we idealistically transition to an all-elec- Researchers have developed many innovative Robotaxis have been the source of much con-
toward an all-electric future and the tric future, many have speculated our elec- modalities for robotics and drones, seeking troversy, as different companies have tested
changing regulatory landscapes im- trical grids will not be able to handle this inspiration from various sources. This innova- their systems with varying success. The near
pacting drones and autonomous sys- adjustment. Others are more optimistic. In tion will continue, with unexpected inspiration future will shed light on long-term feasibility,
time, we will have more certainty. from nature or animals, and some systems especially as regulations shift to account for
tems, these developments underscore
will incorporate several different modalities in recent events and developments.
the dynamic nature of technological their designs.
progress. They collectively signify an
era of both challenge and opportunity, 11 MACRO SOURCES OF DISRUPTION
where adaptability and forward-think-
ing will be key to navigating the dis-
ruptive forces of technology.

WHY BUILT MOBILITY, ROBOTICS & DRONES TRENDS MATTER

TO YOUR ORGANIZATION
A Deluge The “Threat” of New Applications for Optimizing Your Leveraging Last-Mile Dramatic Changes
of Data Decarbonization Robotics-as-a-Service Workforce Delivery to Insurance
Increased connectivity Transportation is one of As businesses explore As collaborative robots The regulatory and As systems become
and semiautonomous the leading contributors ways to enhance continue to advance technological landscapes semiautonomous and
systems have led to a to carbon emissions. The their workforce or and become more for last-mile delivery are fully autonomous,
rise in data collection. regulations are already even automate their sophisticated, businesses evolving. Companies insurance strategies will
This, combined with affecting the industry, operations, it may not have a chance to that can both master need to adjust. This will
information gathered and this trend is expected always be beneficial improve the efficiency the technology and stay impact automobiles,
from fleets, vehicles, or to continue. Although for them to personally of their workforce and ahead of regulatory robotic systems on
bots, can provide valuable many manufacturers own their own fleet of complete tasks quicker. changes will be well- warehouse floors, and
insights for improved have adopted electric robots. A comprehensive By incorporating poised to serve their even employees whose
decision-making and strategies, they still understanding of robots’ collaborative robots, customers effectively, roles change in light
product development. need to take steps to full capabilities can help companies can also providing goods and of collaborative and
proactively offset more of businesses determine safeguard their employees services quickly and assistive robots.
their emissions. whether it is better to own from harsh working efficiently.
the robots themselves or conditions. Keeping up
outsource for the service. with these trends is vital
for optimizing workforces.

WHEN WILL MOBILITY, ROBOTICS & DRONES DISRUPT YOUR ORGANIZATION?
Transportation Grid management Space exploration All trends will be relevant
Infrastructure development Energy storage
Supply chain management Manufacturing
Energy generation Construction
Warehouse management Health care
Delivery Eldercare
Last-mile delivery
Prosthetics

OEMs, and other automotive service and parts players, are facing uphill To get more electric vehicles on the road, manufacturers can look for new and
pressures if they fail to adapt to the growing electric market. The longer-term novel partnerships to drive adoption. Partnerships such as ones that assist gig
threat will persist as more customers seek green options and governments workers in leasing EVs can serve as the template for new programs.
phase out fossil fuel-powered vehicles.
Technology companies and startups have a significant opportunity to create
As vehicles gain more ability to observe and control the passengers within seamless experiences across all mobility modalities, providing consumers with
them, the industry is creating entirely new venues for privacy and data multiple options for arriving at their desired destinations with minimal friction.
security concerns. With increased levels of data collection, automobiles are
becoming a more attractive cyber-infiltration point, posing risks for OEMs,
As bidirectional charging becomes more pervasive, the traditional role of
third parties, and customers.
cars is transformed. Vehicles can now be the powerplant that runs a home or
The rapid adoption of EVs could potentially lead to an increase in business in an emergency and could potentially run full time as capabilities
brownouts, electrical surges, or fires resulting from overloading home or and capacities increase.
even commercial electrical systems. As EV adoption scales, real estate is
at a greater risk of damage and increasing insurance premiums, until the When cobots create efficiencies and robotics begin to automate repetitive and
infrastructure modernizes and stabilizes. even dangerous tasks, organizations can upskill their workforce to engage
in more creative and meaningful undertakings, bringing new value to the
As bots become more dynamic and function across multiple modalities, organization.
organizations that fail to adopt general-purpose robotics could be at risk of
falling behind competitors that masterfully incorporate these systems into Training robots and drones in virtual and simulated environments allows these
workflows. systems to learn complex tasks virtually before transitioning to the real world.
Championing this process will place organizations in enviable positions.
While the applications for robots and drones become seemingly endless,
organizations that are slow to conceive and execute new ways of using these
systems risk underserving their customers and their employees.

1 2 3 4 5 6
As autonomous systems For transportation industry Consider calculated in- Pilot and passenger ob- Electrification is radically Investing in robot compil-
become more prevalent, leaders, focusing on sus- vestments in collaborative servation technologies changing the transporta- ing and training technol-
data will continue to be tainability is now a basic and assistive robots, which might seem invasive to tion industry, and there will ogies has the potential to
widely available. Business- requirement. However, can supplement strained drivers and passengers, but increasingly be new ways radically accelerate ro-
es can utilize advanced leaders should not become workforces and create investment in this tech can to engage with consumers bots’ abilities to learn and
machine learning and AI complacent in their efforts efficiencies. However, there reduce accidents and save who experience this new to adapt to their environ-
to unlock new insights that and must continue to push is not a blanket call for or- lives. In a future where au- paradigm. Consider new ments in real time. While
can feed into new products for new technologies that ganizations to pursue such tonomous driving becomes products and services as hardware is very import-
and services. This leads to can provide competitive solutions. They will have viable, these systems can passengers wait for their ant to robotics, software
opportunities to surprise advantages, such as better to balance the threat of be transformed to assess charging vehicles, pro- is equally, if not more,
and delight customers and smaller batteries. not acting with the capital and anticipate the wants viding opportunities for important, potentially re-
along their journeys. expenditures required for and needs of passengers, companies outside the sulting in efficiencies that
adoption. providing new ways to traditional transportation compound in time.
reach them. industry.

CENTRAL THEMES
Electrification Upends the Industry Better Batteries Boost Improvements Expanded Capacity and Capability
As electrification becomes more pervasive in the world Electrification of the broader industry will continue In both automobiles and mobility at large, robotics
of mobility, the entire industry is being drastically to face a “chicken or the egg” dilemma—battery ca- and autonomous systems are growing in their capacity
redefined. While electric vehicles’ range increases, pabilities must grow to drive electrification demand, to do tasks and support payloads, while their overall
spurring more adoption of EVs, the roadside experience and electrification demand must grow to drive battery capabilities are increasing, too. These achievements
is radically changing to include opportunities to en- technology. However, battery development continues are due to advances in both hardware and software. A
gage drivers and passengers in novel ways. The advent to press forward, with capacity improvements, efficien- constellation of vision, audio, and touch sensor sys-
of electrification is having impacts on the traditional cy gains, and shrinking or altering of form factors to tems, including lidar, radar, 2D and 3D cameras, accel-
business models associated with dealerships, forcing make them more relevant and useful. Improvements erometers, gyroscopes, bump sensors, force sensors,
significant restructuring of how business is done. Re- are helping increase the range of vehicles or the oper- and temperature sensors are enabling these devices
pair servicing is at significant risk, as electric vehicles ational time of drones and robots, reducing the “range to better sense the environments around them. Ad-
require less maintenance and different skill sets for anxiety” of consumers and commercial buyers alike. vanced methods for training and modeling, including
making repairs. This shift is affecting supply chains These updates also enable these vehicles and units using virtual elements to simulate training scenarios,
and changing the types of materials needed, forcing to focus more power on their compute abilities either are increasing these systems’ capabilities and helping
manufacturers to make substantial investments in arin a trade-off for range or in addition to that extended them achieve new thresholds of what is possible on
eas such as lithium processing. Electrification is also range. This is leading to a new class of devices and even shorter timelines. As these systems become more
having an impact on safety standards, as EVs are less vehicles that are more powerful and capable than ever adept and dexterous, they also benefit from increased
likely to be heard by bystanders. Amid electrification’s before over longer time spans and distances. strength and increased payload capacity. And as they
scaling, stakeholders must fully consider its implica- become more dynamic, they will be better equipped to
tions on the future. tackle new challenges.

CENTRAL THEMES
Maximizing Connectivity and Communication Mimicking Your Surroundings Tempered Autonomy
The increased capabilities of vehicles, robots, and When it comes to designing complex systems, nature The development of autonomous systems is a major
drones mean they can use their additional sensors and is a meaningful muse for development and execution. driving force for scientific advancement across the do-
software to know more about their environments. This To achieve fluid movement for robots, engineers often mains of mobility, robotics, and drones. Although the
also requires these form factors to collect substantial- find inspiration from the movements of creatures and promise of fully autonomous vehicles has not yet been
ly more data than ever before and, in most instances, plants like jellyfish, caterpillars, and even vines—these fully realized, autonomous driver assistance systems
communicate back to their OEM, a third party, the allow the bots to be dynamic and even reactive based have significantly impacted the automotive industry
end user or owner, and even each other. This is forcing on external stimuli. Organic material also lends it- and provide a strong signal for increased autonomy in
product and vehicle designers to more closely consider self to the material design of robots, where tissues of the future. In the field of robotics and drones, varying
the connectivity needs of these devices and the poten- specific organisms become instrumental in optimiz- degrees of autonomy are required for efficient and ef-
tial partnerships required to enable these higher levels ing the functionality of a bot. Organisms, both living fective operation. The methods for programming these
of communication. As levels of autonomy increase and dead, are increasingly finding themselves as key systems are becoming more sophisticated but are
over time, the compute load will as well, in addition to components of a robotic system, functioning as hands still in the early stages of refinement. As the technol-
the vast amounts of data that will need to be collected or grippers to lift and move objects. Organisms even ogy advances, the level of autonomy in these systems
in real time, and then streamed back and forth to the factor into the training of robotics, as engineers have is expected to continue increasing, leading to more
cloud’s future iteration. used ants as inspiration for enhancing the navigation efficient and advanced robotics and drones. The future
capabilities of robots in challenging terrains. As robot- of these domains heavily relies on the development of
ics design remains challenging, nature will continue to autonomous systems, and the progress made in recent
provide valuable design solutions. years reflects a positive step toward achieving fully
automated systems in the future.

ONES TO WATCH
Sertac Karaman, associate professor of Martin Nisser, a Ph.D. candidate in the HCI En- Daniel Preston, assistant professor of mechan- Jocelyne Bloch, neuroscientist and neurosur-
aeronautics and astronautics at MIT, for his gineering Group at MIT’s Computer Science and ical engineering at Rice University, for pioneer- geon at Lausanne University, for her work in
contributions in driverless cars, unmanned Artificial Intelligence Laboratory (CSAIL), for his ing necrobotics. functional neurosurgery.
aerial vehicles, distributed aerial surveillance efforts to democratize robotics and hardware by
systems, air traffic control, and certification creating self-configurable and self-assemblable Jensen Huang, founder of Nvidia, for his vision Giuk Lee, associate professor at Chung-Ang
and verification of control systems software. systems that address a diverse functionality of in enabling key components for robotics, auton- University, for his work on assistive exoskele-
needs. omous systems, and AI. tons and wearable robots.
Aaron Becker, associate professor of electrical
and computer engineering at the University of Chris Anthony and Steve Fambro, co-CEOs of Dr. Robert Playter, CEO of Boston Dynamics, Hyung Ju Suh, Ph.D. candidate in electrical en-
Houston, for his contributions to swarm robot- startup Aptera Motors, for working to leverage for pushing the robotics industry forward while gineering and computer science at MIT’s CSAIL,
ics, distributed robotics, medical robotics, and a lightweight chassis, low-drag aerodynamics, pledging to never weaponize technology, and for his work in enabling robots with human-like
motion planning. solar cells, and materials science to provide other efforts to instill public trust. dexterity and intelligence in manipulation.
high efficiency solar electric transportation.
Jonathan How, professor of aeronautics and Dr. Marc Raibert, founder of Boston Dynam- Russ Tedrake, Toyota Professor of Electrical En-
astronautics at MIT, for his role in developing Wei Wang, researcher at the US Energy Depart- ics, for his dedication to the study of dynamic gineering and Computer Science, Aeronautics
algorithms that keep drones from colliding in ment’s Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, moving systems, including robots with legs, and Astronautics, and Mechanical Engineering
midair. for his contributions to using sugar to design simulated mechanisms, and animated figures. at MIT, for his work in combining systems theo-
better flow batteries. ry and robot manipulation.
Bilin Aksun Güvenç, research professor in Henry Liu, professor of civil engineering at the
the Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Gill Pratt, CEO of Toyota Research Institute, for University of Michigan, for his contributions Zachary Manchester, assistant professor of
Engineering at The Ohio State University, for his role in using generative AI technology to to the first realistic simulated driving envi- robotics at Carnegie Mellon University, for his
her role in the development of Vehicle-in-Virtu- quickly teach robots new, dexterous skills. ronment based on a “crash-prone” Michigan efforts to enable robotic systems to match
al-Environment testing, which allows testing of intersection. or exceed the level of agility, efficiency, and
driverless cars in a safe virtual environment. JB Straubel and Andrew Stevenson, co-found- robustness demonstrated by humans and
ers of Redwood Materials, for pioneering circu- Manoj Raghavan, CEO of Tata Elxsi, for his animals.
Steven Hartley Collins, associate professor of lar supply chains and recycling pathways for vision in leading a company whose advanced
mechanical engineering at Stanford University, end-of-life EV batteries. sensors and AI algorithms aim to keep individ- Josephine Galipon, associate professor at the
for his contributions to versatile prostheses uals safe from the hazards of driving. Graduate School of Science and Engineering at
and exoskeleton design. Dr. Pisak Chermprayong and Dr. Ketao Zhang, Yamagata University, for exploring the potential
who as researchers at the Imperial College Lon- Michael Smith, postdoctoral researcher in soft benefits of collaborations between robots and
don produced innovative work on 3D printing robotics at EPFL, for his work in developing flexi- living creatures.
with drone swarms. ble, stretchable pumps for soft robotic systems.

IMPORTANT TERMS
MOBILITY V2G (vehicle-to-grid) • Level 2 LEVELS OF EV CHARGING
Allows bidirectional charging so electric vehicles Partial Automation There are three levels of charging. The higher the
ADAS (advanced driver assistance systems)
can receive electricity from a charging station, or The vehicle has combined automated func- level, the less time it takes to reach a full battery.
Technologies that assist drivers by performing
share their stored electricity with the grid. tions, like steering and acceleration. However,
certain functions in a vehicle, such as blind-spot • Level 1
the driver must always remain engaged and
monitoring, lane departure warning, pedestrian These charging stations use a standard 120v
V2I (vehicle-to-infrastructure communication) monitor the environment constantly.
detection, emergency braking, and traffic sign outlet. The time to charge a vehicle’s battery can
Enables vehicles to communicate with traffic
recognition. • Level 3 take 60 hours or more.
lights, RFID readers, cameras, lane markers, and
other parts of the physical world. Conditional Automation
AMD (assistive mobility device)
A driver is essential. Driver does not need to • Level 2
A mobility aid such as a wheelchair, scooter, walker,
V2V (vehicle-to-vehicle communication) monitor the environment, but must be ready to These are the most commonly available
or orthotic.
Allows vehicles to exchange information with other assume control at any time. charging stations and are used most often for
Bidirectional charging vehicles, sharing data such as speed and location. home charging. The time to reach a full battery
• Level 4 is around 11 hours.
A system that enables an electric vehicle to transfer High Automation
Levels of Automation
electricity back to the grid, as well as to charge The vehicle is capable of performing all driving
The Society of Automotive Engineers (SAE) clearly • Level 3
using electricity from the grid. functions under specified conditions. The driver
defines six levels of driving automation: There are two types of rapid charging stations:
has the option to take control. DC Fast Charging and Supercharging. Level 3
EV charging port • Level 0
The connector that supplies power to an elec- No Automation stations can fully charge a battery in under
• Level 5
tric vehicle when it is plugged in. Of the different A human driver manually performs all tasks. 30 minutes and most closely resemble the
Full Automation
connector types the most common in the US is the customer experience of gasoline-powered cars.
The vehicle is capable of performing all driving
• Level 1 Tesla’s standard is Supercharging, and the com-
North American Charging Station, or NACS. Tesla functions under all conditions. The driver may
Driver Assistance pany has the largest network of Level 3 charging
uses it, and more manufacturers are adopting this have the option to take control.
A driver controls the vehicle, but the vehicle stations in North America.
connector.
design may include some driving assistance
ICE (internal combustion engine) features.
An engine powered by fuel combustion, most
commonly gasoline or diesel fuel.

IMPORTANT TERMS
ROBOTICS Quadrupedal robot Drone • Drone swarm
A four-legged robot. An unmanned vehicle that can operate in the air, on Fleets of networked drones capable of coordi-
Cobot
land, or in the sea: nated operations and communication.
A collaborative robot built for interaction with
Robotics
human workers, assisting with certain tasks, often • Fixed-wing drone • eVTOL (electric vertical take-off and landing)
The use of a physical, mechanical device capable
those that are repetitive or harmful to humans. A drone with one rigid wing, resembling an air- An electric-powered drone that has the ability to
of performing tasks at various levels of complexity,
either on command or via preprogrammed instruc- plane. It is typically capable of remaining in the take off and land vertically, as well as hover.
Exoskeleton
tions. air longer and flying longer distances than other
A rigid, mechanical robotic structure that encases • Federal Aviation Administration (FAA)
drone types.
the human limb, or envelops the body, and assists Drone operators are required to comply with FAA
DRONES
the wearer in motion-based activities, such as • Fixed-wing hybrid VTOL rules. There are a multitude of airspace restric-
walking or lifting. AGV (automated guided vehicle)
A drone with a rigid wing, and rotors that are at- tions as well as FAA-Recognized Identification
A robot that follows specific lines, lanes, or other
tached to either side, enabling vertical takeoffs Areas (FRIAs). In a FRIA, a drone operator may fly
Microrobotics markings, often used in industrial settings.
and landings. their device without Remote ID.
A field of robotics that develops miniature robots,
typically smaller than 1 mm (or .001 meters) in size. AUV
• Single-rotor drone • UAV
Autonomous (or uncrewed) underwater vehicle.
A drone with a single rotor on top, much like a Unmanned aerial vehicle.
Nanobot
helicopter.
A field of robotics that develops robots at the scale BVLOS (beyond visual line of sight)
of a nanometer (or 10-9 meters). Operating an UAV outside of the visual line of sight • Multi-rotor drone
of the operator. A drone with multiple rotors. The most common
Necrobotics
multi-rotor drone is a quadcopter, which has
A field of robotics that utilizes biological material,
four rotors.
such as insect cadavers, as robotic components.

MOBILITY
TRENDS

ELECTRIFICATION TRANSFORMS MOBILITY ECOSYSTEMS

Decarbonizing Mobility lenges for European cities, which significant- ments in an electric future, with plans and School districts are replacing traditional bus-
In the US, the transportation sector gener- ly contribute to these emissions; to support announcements from the late 2010s now es with electric models to reduce emissions
ates the largest amount of greenhouse gas them in this effort, the EU is offering help becoming reality. Western automakers are and save on fuel costs, with potential orders
emissions—primarily from burning fossil fuel creating Sustainable Urban Mobility Plans. even investing in lithium mining companies up to $1 billion over the next five years. Blue
for cars, trucks, ships, trains, and planes. In However, various obstacles, including gover- to ensure a stable supply of this key com- Bird has opened a new Electric Vehicle Build-
efforts to mitigate climate change, this in- nance issues, need to be addressed. Addi- ponent of EV batteries, committing billions Up Center in Georgia to meet the increased
dustry is a prime candidate for impact. Some tionally, the Council of the European Union of dollars to secure the resource. General demand for electric school buses, and aims to
states offer proactive examples. California has recently passed a new regulation aimed Motors has invested $650 million in Lithium increase production from 100 to 5,000 electric
allocated more than $50 billion in funds to at facilitating EV travel across the continent Americas to develop the Thacker Pass Mine buses annually. Blue Bird will assemble its
address climate change and move away from while mitigating the impact of greenhouse in Nevada and has entered into supply agree- “Vision” and “All American” buses, each with a
the use of fossil fuels. In the area of trans- gas emissions. The regulation mandates the ments with lithium companies like Livent. 155 kWh battery providing 120 miles of range.
portation, the state is implementing regu- installation of fast charging stations that Ford has arranged lithium supply deals with
offer a minimum of 150 kW of power at a Chilean supplier SQM, Charlotte-based Albe- Mass Market Goes Custom
lations to reduce toxic freight pollution and
accelerate the deployment of zero-emission maximum distance of 60 km (37 miles) from marle, Nemaska Lithium in Quebec, and the During the COVID-19 pandemic, the shortage
trucks; officials are also allocating emergency each other along the Trans-European Trans- Argentina mining company Rio Tinto. of semiconductor chips caused significant
funding to ensure the safety of public transit port Network (TEN-T) highway system by the supply chain constraints. The lack of chips,
year 2025. As more electric mobility technol- Ford and Uber are collaborating through the
riders and workers, in hopes of persuading used in automotive parts such as operating
ogy is adopted, cost structures and opera- Ford Drive program to provide flexible leases
more people to choose that form of transpor- systems, cameras, sensors, and entertain-
tions will continue to change. The mobility of EVs to Uber drivers. The goal is to support
tation. California also enacted a Low Carbon ment systems, led to a decline in production,
industry, including vehicle manufacturers, Uber’s efforts to convert more drivers to EVs
Fuels Standard to ensure that it aligns with resulting in a shortage of vehicles. Dealers
is already feeling the impact and rethinking and reduce emissions, while Ford will benefit
climate and environmental justice priorities. had little to no stock on their lots and were
business models. from expanding the presence of its Mustang
In Europe, the transportation sector is also a forced to operate as showrooms, where some
Mach-E EVs. The initial pilot program offers
major contributor of greenhouse gasses, and customers placed orders for a custom vehi-
Automaker Restructuring one- to four-month leases in San Diego, Los
officials are aiming for a 90% reduction to cle with a longer lead time. While supplies
Angeles, and San Francisco.
meet the EU’s target of carbon neutrality by Major car companies and transportation are slowly and tortuously improving, CEOs of
2050. This transition poses significant chal- platforms are making significant invest- major car brands anticipate that inventory

levels will never go back to where they were Policy reveals that a total of $860 billion will to purchase EVs, the Inflation Reduction Act expects to be producing batteries for electric
pre-pandemic. But this window has revealed be invested globally by 2030 toward the tran- has unexpectedly complicated the practice. vehicles and aims to accelerate the produc-
that customers will wait and pay for their sition to EVs. In the US, investments are ex- In August 2023, the law restricted the $7,500 tion of electrified Hyundai and Kia vehicles in
dream car, with the ability to pick their de- pected to total $210 billion—almost a quarter tax credit to only EVs assembled in North North America. But despite this push by US
sired color, features, and accessories. Conse- of the entire investment. Amid this spending America. As a result, automakers that can no companies to produce more batteries, most
quently, build-to-order purchases will likely increase, some of the benefits are trickling longer incentivize new car buyers this way production is still dominated by China. Last
continue to increase and render big vehicle down to consumers. Increased plant capaci- are encouraging consumers to lease EVs. year, China refined approximately 95% of the
inventories less necessary. Ford is extending ty, production scaling efforts, and improved world’s manganese, around 70% of cobalt and
this schematic to its Mustang Mach-E, offer- battery material costs are enabling Ford to Global Battery Belts graphite, two-thirds of lithium, and over 60%
ing a $1,000 discount in some instances for reduce the prices of its F-150 Lightning elec- Major players in the automotive and battery of nickel, all of which are vital components
customers who pre order. This trend is likely tric truck models by up to $10,000 to incen- chemistry industries are investing in US bat- in the production of lithium-ion batteries. In
to continue as more production lines shift tivize sales. The base F-150 Lightning Pro will tery production. States that attract electric time, that could change, especially with the
to increased EV manufacturing. Such a shift be priced at $49,995. Elsewhere, Geely an- vehicle manufacturing and battery plants 2023 discovery of lithium in a US volcano
does have tremendous implications for the nounced the Galaxy E8 sedan (about the size highlight the job opportunities these in- along the Nevada-Oregon border, which could
industry, changing the nature of dealerships of a Honda Accord) will be on sale in the Chi- vestments create, not only within the plants result in a stable and sustainable source of
and impacting current commission and nese market for under $25,000. Automakers themselves but also in the surrounding the metal for the US for decades to come.
profit-sharing structures. Both the industry are also taking advantage of tax incentives supplier and logistics sectors. The growth in
and consumers will have to adjust to such associated with EV production. The state of EV manufacturing is especially prominent in Battery Recycling
restructuring, and adequately prepare for Georgia has offered Rivian $1.5 billion in tax the Battery Belt: The area, which runs from The debate surrounding the sustainability of
impending shockwaves. incentives for the company to build a $5 Detroit to Georgia, offers lower electricity EVs versus internal combustion engine vehi-
billion factory east of Atlanta. There, Rivian costs and strong manufacturing employ- cles (ICEs) revolves around the environmental
Incentive-Driven Investments plans to produce 400,000 electric vehicles ment growth, driving industry expansion. As impact caused by the mining of lithium and
Many vehicle manufacturers and battery annually and provide 7,500 new jobs after an example, Hyundai Motor Group and LG En- cobalt, which are crucial materials for batter-
makers are investing heavily in the devel- officially getting the green light to move ergy Solution announced a joint investment ies. However, by using recycled battery com-
opment of electric vehicles and their future forward with production. While tax credits of $4.3 billion in a new electric battery plant ponents, the need for new mineral mining can
success. A recent analysis by Atlas Public have been effective at enticing consumers in southeast Georgia. By late 2025, the plant be reduced, leading to a more environmentally

friendly EV market. Currently over 80 compa- Better Batteries in Mitra Chem to use iron-based cathodes $250,000 Lightyear 0 solar car. After raising
nies worldwide are engaged in the recycling Electric vehicle manufacturers and their to make battery technology more accessible more capital, the company will try again with
of electric vehicles, with over 50 startups partners are working hard to improve batter- and cost-effective. Researchers at Pacific a more affordable Lightyear 2, which has a
receiving at least $2.7 billion in funding from ies by exploring new battery types, designs, Northwest National Laboratory have devel- starting price of $40,000. First revealed as a
corporate investors such as automakers, bat- and materials. The development of sol- oped a breakthrough in flow battery technol- concept, Kia’s EV9 SUV features solar panels
tery manufacturers, and mining companies. id-state batteries and other innovative bat- ogy by using a solution based on sugar to to supplement its 100-kilowatt-hour battery;
Industry insiders predict that by 2040, up tery solutions will make batteries smaller, lead in the development of low-cost, long-du- the company started taking reservations for
to 40% of the battery materials used in new safer, and capable of providing longer rang- ration energy storage systems, which could the EV9 in late 2023. In contrast to a large SUV,
electric vehicles could come from recycled es, much like the Harvard John A. Paulson impact the source of energy for charging EVs. California-based Aptera Motors focuses on
sources. A prominent player in this space, School of Engineering and Applied Sciences Startup Ample is taking a different approach, producing ultra-efficient EVs through aerody-
Redwood Materials, has partnered with Ford (SEAS) research that developed a new way focusing on battery swapping as a means to namics and weight savings. Its three-wheeled
and Volvo to establish responsible disposal to make solid-state batteries with a lithi- keep EVs on the road. EV, the Aptera, boasts a highly aerodynamic
and recycling pathways for end-of-life EV bat- um metal anode. Beyond the obvious safety design with a drag coefficient of 0.13, offering
teries. They are also going beyond EVs and col- Solar Vehicles up to 400 miles on a single charge, which can
and range benefits, enhanced batteries will
laborating with Rad Power Bikes to conduct provide greater versatility in terms of bat- Solar-powered EVs require less frequent be supplemented through included solar pan-
the same process for retired e-bike batteries. tery shape, which will allow for more options charging and can increase efficiency. A els. While solar vehicles will not eliminate the
Ascend Elements has secured $542 million in different mobility platforms and provide recent study found that solar-powered cars need for charging any time soon, their integra-
in Series D funding along with $480 million more cabin space in vehicles. QuantumS- can travel between 11 and 29 kilometers per tion will help the industry move toward more
in earlier Department of Energy grants for cape is striving to make solid-state batteries day using solar energy, reducing the need sustainable transportation.
recycling lithium batteries into black mass to available to the public as early as this year. for frequent charging. These solar cars have
be reused in other materials. Additionally, Nth the potential to make electric transportation Shifts in the Servicing Model
This technology will allow EVs to travel up
Cycle has secured a focused Series B funding to 400 miles on one charge and recharge in cleaner and more affordable by minimizing While the mobile service model is not new,
round of $50 million, and Green Li-ion has only 15 minutes. Toyota plans to be using pollution from electricity production. Dutch it’s increasingly impacting the mobility and
received $20.5 million in funding to support solid state batteries by 2028, reducing the startup Lightyear saw the advantage of automobile industry. Now, mechanics can
its recycling initiatives. size, cost, and weight of its EV batteries by solar, but despite its efforts, was declared travel to meet customers in their physical lo-
50%. General Motors is investing $60 million insolvent in 2023 shortly after releasing its cations, and over-the-air updates can, in some

instances, resolve digital-based issues. As the Electrification Expands to Other Vehicles the other end of the spectrum, China has un-
model takes hold, this presents a significant The rise in electrification of vehicles is veiled its first battery-electric container ship,
threat to traditional dealership/servicing extending beyond consumer cars. Deliv- the 700 TEU, which has a capacity of carrying
models, and companies are racing to adapt. ery carriers like Amazon and the US Postal 700 20-foot containers. Even micro mobility
Rivian plans to repurpose large commercial Service are investing in the technology: is becoming electrified, as the e-bike compa-
Amazon vans to function as mobile service Amazon aims to deploy 100,000 electric ny Cowboy introduces a more affordable Core
vehicles for its consumer and commercial delivery vehicles by 2030, and the USPS says line of its e-bikes and startup AtmosGear
vehicle fleet. These electric Rivian Service it will buy over 66,000 electric vehicles by has unveiled electric inline skates featuring
Vans will offer maintenance, repair, and ve- the end of 2028. When it comes to aviation, a 20-mile range on a full charge.
hicle-to-vehicle charging. Ford is recognizing ZeroAvia has successfully flown the world’s
the need to enhance the vehicle service ex- largest hydrogen-electric aircraft as part of
perience and is moving to expand its remote the HyFlyer II project, a government-funded
service offerings. The company will be provid- initiative aimed at making small passen-
ing complimentary pickups and deliveries of ger planes more environmentally friendly.
its vehicles and mobile repair options to more Magpie Aviation, a California company, has
of its customers. Startups are also taking proposed using electric aircraft as towing
advantage of this shift. On-demand car care planes to connect with passenger or cargo
startup Spiffy has acquired $30 million in planes that have sufficient battery power
funding to aid car dealerships in expanding for takeoff, landing, and flight to alternative
its mobile service offerings. Through sales airports. Electric boating is impacting both
of its software and van upfits, Spiffy plans small and large-scale initiatives. BMW and
to help dealerships and repair shops provide Tyde have launched the ICON electric boat, a Amazon Prime electric delivery vans built by Rivian
mobile brake maintenance and oil changes. 43-foot eco-friendly vessel powered by hydro- on the street in Seattle.
Repair servicing is really beginning to go the foils, six BMW i3 batteries, and two electric
extra mile to win customers and foster and motors. It has a range of more than 50 nau- Image credit: 400tmax/istock.com
enhance relationships. tical miles and a max speed of 30 knots. On

VEHICLE CHARGING SCALES

Charging Gets A Roadmap made by BMW, GM, Honda, Hyundai, and Major automakers including Ford, Rivian, Redefining the Roadside
The electric vehicle revolution is well under- Mercedes. Improvements to existing infra- Fisker, GM, Honda, Volvo, Jaguar, Nissan, The rise of EVs is transforming our roadside
way, but a key bottleneck remains a concern: structure are also underway with Tesla prom- and Mercedes-Benz have pledged to adopt experience. Extended charge times have led
charging infrastructure. Rural and suburban ising 40% faster charging through its V4 Tesla’s NACS connector or offer NACS adapt- retailers like Walmart, Ikea, and Macy’s to
consumers alike have had their desire to technology, companies like EVgo launching ers, making standardization one step closer integrate charging tech, turning wait times
adopt EVs hampered as a result of “range initiative’s to “renew” existing stations, and in the US. Tesla has also begun to expand its into retail opportunities. Tesla’s drive-in-diner
anxiety”—the fear of running out of charge navigation services like Waze integrating “Magic Dock ‘’ superchargers in several US concept provides culinary and film experienc-
mid-journey. Recognizing this anxiety, regu- charging locations into its navigation tech states, adding CCS compatibility in much es while EVs charge, while Juxta offers autono-
lators in the US have approved $5 billion for to improve peace of mind in trip planning for the same way it has had to in Europe. These mous stores at traditional charging hubs.
EV charging projects over the next five years EV adopters. two developments have not only moved
global charging capacity closer to universal With the surging EV demand, innovative
and recently allocated an additional $2.5
Charging Standardization compatibility but have instigated a renewed solutions are addressing infrastructure gaps.
billion for community chargers. Europe has
One of the lingering issues in the develop- incentive for further charger development. Ample swaps batteries in just five minutes.
gone even further, mandating fast charging
ment of the EV market has been fragmen- EV Safe Charge is piloting robots to charge ve-
stations within every 60 km length of major
As EV adoption and universal compatibili- hicles in non-equipped garages. SparkCharge
highways by 2026. tation of charging standards. Globally, the
ty increases, the need for charging station delivers on-demand charging where fixed
Combined Charging System (CCS) has been
The private sector is stepping up its efforts, capacity intensifies. This opens up a new infrastructure is lacking.
the prevailing standard, but the North Amer-
too. Automakers have gotten closer to con- vector of competition throughout the indus-
ican Charging Standard (NACS)—commonly
try where vendors, partnerships, and enter- Even in emergencies, adaptations are evident.
vergence on charging standards with several known as the Tesla connector—has become
tainment offerings at charging stations may Apple’s new satellite function broadens the
top manufacturers adopting the Tesla con- the standard in North America with Tesla’s
dictate station utilization rates, and inno- coverage for roadside assistance in low-signal
nector for their vehicles. Major brands like overwhelming EV market share. This diver-
vations like real-time pricing could allow areas. Meanwhile, AAA assists stranded EVs
Walmart, Sam’s Club, Comcast, Ikea, Marriott, gence has become more complicated since
for solar-powered stations to out-compete with mobile charges and is exploring electric
and Hilton have committed to build tens of Tesla began open-sourcing its NACS connec-
traditional stations during fluctuations in tow trucks for green, on-the-go recharging.
thousands of new chargers across all of their tor design at the end of 2022, but progress
properties, in addition to tens of thousands solar availability.
has been made toward cross-compatibility.
in combined charging station commitments


Electrifying Cities Electreon to install wireless charging on its with initiatives from automakers to try to
Accelerating frequency and severity of cli- roadways, and the US recently earmarked bring chargers to the home. Hyundai, for
mate events, along with rising electric vehicle $25 billion to expand community charging example, has pushed promotions that would
adoption, has seen cities push their electri- capacity. These actions underscore what is provide a free EV charger and a reduction in
fication strategies to the top of their agenda. becoming a global shift toward a sustain- installation costs to every new customer.
On the grid, decentralized energy systems able and resilient urban future, ensuring
cities remain powered, efficient, and ready These efforts to transform have paved the
have been a consistent theme. Public utilities
for the next era of electrification. way for more widespread adoption, but the
like Vermont’s Green Mountain Power are in-
swift transition has also uncovered poten-
stalling batteries in customers’ homes to en-
EVs At Home tial challenges for EVs at home. Surveys by
sure power resilience during outages and to
the Electrical Safety Foundation indicate
optimize costs by utilizing stored resources As the EV market has matured, a significant
that the electrical systems of over half of
during periods of low supply or peak demand. shift has been taking place in the home. On
US homes may be unable to safely carry the
In North Carolina, a residential community the heels of California’s 2020 mandate for
continuous load that EV charging demands.
called Heron’s Nest is being developed to solar installations in new homes, Illinois has
If the rapid adoption of EVs leads to an
include a microgrid independent of the larger passed laws requiring new and renovated
increase in brownouts, electrical surges, or
grid. Each home includes a solar energy sys- properties to have at least one EV-capable
fires resulting from overloading home elec-
tem contributing to a collective network that parking space for each residential unit that
trical systems, more stringent regulations
not only powers the community but ensures has dedicated parking by 2024. A proposal
may become more popular for concerned
its resilience and sustainability. under consideration by New Mexico legis-
local governments and homeowners asso-
lators would go even further, mandating all
In transportation, cities like New York City ciations. Still, forward-thinking communi-
new homes be constructed with a solar-pow-
and Los Angeles have considered requiring ties may use the opportunity to collaborate
ered system and EV charger. In Germany, a
on more communal solar arrays or shared Electric vehicles taking advantage of chargers on
rideshares to run completely on EVs by 2030. grant to help fund home-charging installa- city streets.
To cope with rising demand for charging in charging stations, presenting an efficient
tions was tapped out in one day, with over
cities, governments are racing to expand and cost-effective solution.
33,000 people applying just hours after it
capacity. France, for example, is working with went live. These regulatory efforts coincide


Bidirectional Charging al charging. GM has gone a step further,
Electric vehicles with bidirectional charging declaring that by 2024, vehicle-to-home
capabilities present an exciting frontier. (V2H) charging will be a standard feature
These vehicles can not only consume energy in its vehicles. Other industry leaders like
but also supply it for other applications, BMW, Volvo, and Porsche are actively testing
transforming the traditional role of cars. No this technology. Even Tesla, which initially
longer merely used for transportation, bidirec- seemed skeptical, has announced plans to
tional EVs now have the potential to energize incorporate bidirectionality in all its vehicles
homes, businesses, and entire communi- by 2025.
ties. With bidirectional charging, owners
Municipalities are recognizing the value of
can strategically charge their cars overnight
this transformative technology in energy
using affordable grid energy and then utilize
management. Utrecht, a prominent city in
the EV’s stored energy during high-demand
the Netherlands, stands out in its adoption,
daytime periods, ensuring efficient use of
actively installing bidirectional charging
resources. Growing challenges such as the
stations that allow shared vehicles to con-
energy crises linked to geopolitical events
tribute energy back to the grid. In the US,
in Ukraine, escalating climate disruptions
California is at the forefront, contemplating
across the globe, and widespread concerns
legislation to make bidirectional charging
around outdated infrastructure and cyberse-
mandatory for new EVs. The possibilities are
curity only underscore the timely importance
vast, and the trajectory suggests a future
of this technology.
where our vehicles play an integral role in a
The automotive industry has been quick to sustainable energy ecosystem.
embrace this innovation. Ford, Genesis, Hyun-
dai, Kia, Mitsubishi, Nissan, and Volkswagen
Rendering of the Nissan Vehicle to Home (V2H) System concept
have all rolled out vehicles with bidirection-
Source: Nissan

IMMERSIVE VEHICLES CONNECT TO OTHER ECOSYSTEMS

Livable Cabins system. This connected experience will sync ing drivers of auditory and even touch-based sound and feel just like their gas-powered
Auto manufacturers are revolutionizing the with calendars and smart home data, handle feedback they are accustomed to. This also counterparts, while the inclusion of these sim-
way we experience our vehicles. Rather than a driving tasks within designated areas, and affects bystanders. The lack of noise from ulations is primarily about keeping people safe.
car solely serving as an uninspired vessel to even offer wellness and fun features, like electric cars contributes to their high rate
meditation and in-car games. But the prolif- of accidents: EVs are 40% more likely to hit In-Vehicle Connectivity
get us from one location to another, manu-
facturers are emphasizing enhancing cabin eration of large and clunky screens is being a pedestrian than a normal car, and for the The role of high-speed, low-latency connectiv-
environments. Now, they’re not just for driving sharply criticized, as they have impacts on visually impaired population, this number ity is becoming a prominent factor impacting
but also for riding, relaxing, working, and ergonomic, safety, and aesthetic factors. jumps to 93%. the performance of the vehicle along with the
playing. In many instances, automakers at- If they continue to grow unchecked, they in-cabin experience. While internet access in
could ultimately be challenged by regula- Toyota is adding audible features to its
tempt to transform these landscapes through cars is not new—Starlink currently provides
tors. Despite these concerns, as personal electric cars—including a simulated gear
the increased use of screens. In a Peugeot connectivity for Subaru—carriers such as
mobility is enhanced with longer ranges and stick and artificial “noise” simulating a
concept called Inception, a screen-supported AT&T and Verizon have ambitions for exe-
increased implementation of autonomous combustion engine—aimed at drivers who
human-machine interface replaces the tra- cuting on this modality. AT&T, in particular,
driving features, auto manufacturers will prefer a more traditional driving experience.
ditional steering wheel and displays control sees 5G connectivity in conjunction with edge
continue to improve comfort within vehicles This simulated manual transmission expe-
information. Continental is also capsulizing computing as a way to enable new functions
and engage customers through new onboard rience might even come with the possibility
on the screen-infused future with its ultraw- and services through this network and cloud
touchpoints, impacting how we’ve tradition- of stalling in order to retain the charm and
ide In2visible: a touchscreen that spans the convergence. This framework will not only sup-
ally engaged with roadside attractions and enjoyment of driving a manual transmission
full length of the dash resulting in a high-in- port the safety and mission-critical functions
amenities. car. Hyundai and Dodge are also exploring
tensity driving experience. Ultimately, such of the car but also intelligent transportation
sound design in the execution of their EVs,
interfaces are intended for fully integrated systems, teleoperations,and autonomous
Simulated Driving Experience not just for preference reasons but because
digital experiences. Chrysler has given its driving, along with onboard infotainment
the addition of artificial engine noise is also
view of a fully electric future where the cock- Electric vehicles are known for being in- systems. More tactically, Verizon launched the
a safety standard, alerting pedestrians to
pits of its vehicles integrate Stellantis-brand- credibly quiet, and some view this as prob- Connected Car by Verizon, which offers select
the presence of electric vehicles. Ultimately,
ed software, including the STLA Brain oper- lematic. Specifically, EVs don’t make the BMW models features such as voice, data, and
some manufacturers are hoping that drivers
ating system, STLA AutoDrive Level 3 driver typical shifting noise that drivers are used to unlimited Wi-Fi hotspot connectivity through
are more likely to adopt electric cars if they
assist, and STLA Smart Cockpit infotainment hearing, and this can cause issues by depriv- subscription. With regards to more tech

IMMERSIVE VEHICLES CONNECT TO OTHER ECOSYSTEMS
demonstrations or spectacles, General Motors and video games. While Apple and Mer- in its vehicles. The service connects to the which directly integrates Google services with-
collaborated with Etisalat to host a gaming cedes-Benz have enabled spatial audio in cloud to access an extensive gaming library. in the vehicle. Brands like Chevrolet, Renault,
tournament that took place entirely within vehicles, Jaguar Land Rover is turning to While the use of these technologies is limit- Volvo, Polestar, and Honda are set to showcase
connected Chevrolet and GM cars equipped haptics to enhance the music experience. ed for safety, inevitably, these technologies features like YouTube available in cars with
with in-vehicle Wi-Fi. The tournament fea- Its “Body and Soul Seat” technology, dubbed are intended for broader adoption as we Google Built-in, gaming with GameSnacks,
tured 10 gamers who participated in a 12-hour BASS, features headrest-mounted mem- inch closer to an autonomous driving future. conferencing with Cisco, Microsoft Teams,
event covering 450 km of roads in the United branes and transducers that provide haptic Ultimately, these new platforms intend to and Zoom, and further integration with Google
Arab Emirates, organized by OnStar. Cradle- feedback in response to lower frequencies simplify content discovery and enhance in- Assistant. General Motors is indexing sig-
point partnered with The University of New in music—and even offer health benefits car entertainment. nificantly on Google, and in the process is
South Wales for the Bridgestone World Solar through integrated wellness programs. Auto- ditching Apple CarPlay for Android Auto in
Challenge race, by providing 5G/LTE wireless makers are continuing to add features to be CarOS its upcoming electric vehicles. Relating to
network edge solutions for the Sunswift 7 enjoyed by passengers while they’re com- As cars become even smarter and offer OEMs, Swedish EV manufacturer Polestar has
solar race car and support vehicles. This tech- muting or charging their EVs. Xperi and BMW more immersive experiences, navigational teamed up with Xingji Meizu to develop an
nology allowed the team to remotely monitor have collaborated to use TiVo’s video media and entertainment systems will continue to operating system for its cars in China, as part
the car’s performance and telemetry data. As platform in cars to offer customers access evolve, necessitating a holistic and central- of Geely Group’s strategy to tailor vehicles for
connectivity becomes more reliable, more to various video content providers, including ized operating system. In the current market, the Chinese market. The new system, based on
subscription services like Verizon’s Connect- linear and on-demand streaming services, many options are available, developed by Flyme Auto, will connect with in-car apps and
ed Car are inevitable, much to the disappoint- covering country-specific content such as both OEMs and technology companies. While mobile phones, and use the latest smart tech-
ment of most consumers. news, movies, and media libraries. Polestar’s tech companies have taken a lead in years nologies. Jaguar Land Rover is set to release
most recent software update, P2.9, includes past, some OEMs are attempting to regain its new electrical/electronic (E/E) architecture,
Mobile Entertainment Hubs the addition of YouTube for streaming videos control. Google is making progress in the au- EVA Continuum, with the help of Continental
Vehicles are becoming increasingly equipped during vehicle charging and a revamped tomotive industry through Android Auto—an subsidiary Elektrobit for running its software
with multiple entertainment options for version of Apple CarPlay that allows Maps app that operates on the user’s smartphone platform and operating system. This move
passengers and drivers, including technolo- to be projected onto the instrument cluster. and wirelessly sends navigation, parking, enables faster development and over-the-air
gies such as immersive audio, large screens, Polestar is also the first automaker to offer media, and messaging to the infotainment software updates, a strategy that other auto-
and the ability to stream movies, TV shows, Nvidia’s cloud gaming service, GeForce NOW, system of the vehicle—and Google Built-in, makers are also beginning to adopt.

SCENARIOS
SCENARIO YEAR 2038
What if expanded vehicle capabilities redefine the nature of home ownership?

As younger generations grapple with lower real income, higher housing prices, and an expanded tolerance for
remote work, connected vehicles became the new starter home of yesteryear. Risks associated with pandemics,
crime, and higher rates of depression drove people out of cities and closer to nature, and their vehicles stepped
in as an invaluable resource. Mesh networks of 5G and satellite-enabled internet allow people to work, consume
entertainment, and connect with others virtually in the comfort of their vehicle—no matter where it’s located.
Vehicle cabins are redesigned around sleeping, working, and relaxing, while new features that enable cooking,
food storage, and waste management become popular add-ons. AI allows vehicles to assist passengers with
daily tasks like cooking food or supporting work, while providing security, health monitoring, and the ability to
contact emergency services or autonomously drive the vehicle to receive help during situations of duress.

DATA COLLECTION ENABLES SAFETY AND AUTONOMY

Mobility Simulation cars, while the University of Michigan has sion sources, allowing vehicles to reach as Pilot and Passenger Observation
Simulation has become an increasingly begun running simulations on historically much as 1,000 horsepower while maintain- Technological advancements have enabled
ubiquitous component across several areas crash-prone intersections to try and reduce ing equilibrium to prevent risks like disin- detailed monitoring of both driver and pas-
of mobility and will be a defining characteris- incidents. Globally, the Indian city of Chennai tegration. Indian technology company Tata senger behaviors, significantly enhancing
tic in the development of its future. Tesla, for is now using traffic simulation to study and Elxsi is developing technologies that would safety and operational efficiency within vehi-
example, has been relying on its Dojo super- improve congestion within its borders; while alert automobiles to approaching emergency cles. Safety sensors and equipment are now
computer to simulate billions of miles of driv- academics in Egypt and Brazil are relying vehicles, and indicate slippery roads, dan- being built to detect distraction, drowsiness,
ing for its autonomous driving software since on simulation to test and demonstrate new gerous curves, and potholes or roads under and substance influence. Smart Eye’s Driver
choosing to rely purely on cameras and neural innovations in traffic signal technology. As repair so that they can appropriately adapt Monitoring System, for example, gauges driver
nets to provide its vehicles with self-driving data abundance exponentially expands, to the approaching conditions. Honda and attentiveness, providing real-time feedback to
capabilities. Mercedes has also made simu- simulation will increasingly be at the heart Sony’s Afeela cars are being designed to prevent mishaps. Similarly, Magna’s advanced
lation more central to its strategy, forming a of mobility design. “feel” their driver’s moods and allow them to driver assistance systems use cameras and
partnership with Nvidia that only underscores express themselves and interact with others interior mirrors to identify distracted behav-
Self-Aware Vehicles on the road via external screens on the front
this trend. Leveraging Nvidia’s Omniverse ior and try to reduce accidents. In the US, the
Generative AI platform, Mercedes hopes to im- Vehicle connectivity is changing the land- of their cars. Ford has even patented self-re- government is pushing to require in-vehicle
prove its vehicle designs and craft enhanced scape of mobility. The abundance of sensors, porting technology that allows cars to lock breathalyzers by 2026 so that drivers under
driving algorithms by simulating countless monitors, computing power, and network out drivers, disable features like air-condi- the influence cannot take the wheel until the
potential real-world scenarios, to create ve- availability has enabled vehicles to provide tioning, restrict driving to only certain hours vehicle confirms their capacity to wield it
hicles that respond optimally across various information and, in some cases, act on it or locations, and to even utilize self-driving responsibly. As vehicles gain more ability to
conditions. in ways that would have once been consid- to return cars to an impound lot. As vehicles observe and control those within them, entire-
ered unprecedented. For example, this year, continue to get more connected and aware, ly new privacy and data security concerns are
Universities like Ohio State and the Universi- Goodyear tested its SightLine tires, which mobility will look strikingly different from emerging. With monitoring systems becoming
ty of Michigan have brought mobility sim- can measure tire-road friction, wear, load, the modern day mobility environment as we more common in standard vehicle require-
ulation to academia as well. Ohio State, for inflation pressure, and temperature. Soft- know it. ments and designs, a balanced framework
example, uses simulated environments to ware-enabled vehicles can integrate with that addresses both safety enhancements
test the safety and aptitude of real driverless and monitor multiple powertrains or propul- and privacy concerns will become crucial for

getting the best out of these technologies. As drones, cameras, sensors, meteorological ers invaluable data that enhances the user like Uber and Lyft to leverage mobility data
instruments, particle detectors, mobile net- experience in addition to providing insights to pinpoint underserved areas and identi-
Mobile Weather Stations working, and high precision GPS technology that can inspire better urban planning, pub- fy burgeoning potential for new markets or
The Mobile Weather Station (MWS) has be- continue to improve, expect to see the MWS lic transit, and infrastructure decisions by services. This data can also help automakers
come a crucial instrument for the real-time become more ubiquitous across the US. local governments. Companies across Asia and municipalities identify optimal locations
monitoring of weather and environmental and the Middle East have already proven the for charging stations or micromobility docks,
conditions, offering granular insights crucial Mobility Superapps viability of superapps, but now US mobility to effectively spread charging capacity and
for sectors like transportation, agriculture, Superapps are emerging as a powerful and technology companies are striving to achieve optimal utilization. Richer mobility
and emergency response. While universities force, amalgamating various transportation be the first to make superapps the norm data can also lead to improved regulatory
across the United States, along with com- services into a singular mobile platform, domestically. efforts. For instance, data insights can help in-
panies like Verizon, are creating some of and subtly changing the mobility landscape form regulations for autonomous vehicles and
the technologies that enable the stations, for governments, businesses, and con- Utilizing Mobility Data ride-sharing frameworks, and potentially be-
several states and municipalities are using sumers alike. They embody a convergence Mobility data has become a pivotal asset in come the catalyst for standardizing data-shar-
them to bring about improvements across where ride-hailing, public transit, and even modern transport dynamics. Real-time mon- ing protocols among mobility providers. As the
their domains. For example, in New York non-transportation services harmonize, itoring and analytics, combined with geo- investment in and availability of mobility data
City, the FloodNet Initiative utilizes MWS to offering a seamless user experience. Lead- spatial data, enables companies to harness continue to grow and the sources for collect-
monitor water levels, predict flooding events, ing this transition are companies like Uber spatial information to create and enhance ing the data expand, a future where mobility
and optimize drainage systems to minimize and Grab. For example, Uber’s ambition products and services across the mobili- solutions are seamless, efficient, and tailored
potential damage to the metropolitan area. extends beyond ride-hailing; in the UK, its ty spectrum. New open map data sets like to individual needs will start looking like the
In California, MWS is being used to detect app integrates bikes, scooters, trains, buses, what are provided by the collective efforts of norm.
early indicators of potential wildfires and and even planes, aspiring to set a precedent Amazon, Microsoft, and Meta add to the map
changes in algae levels that can ultimately in global mobility solutions. They’re not just data already offered by Apple and Google; Relying on ADAS
save lives and preserve ecological health. In about consolidating services for consumer this additional competitive pressure will As the auto industry continues to push toward
Connecticut, MWS was introduced to gather convenience but also about orchestrating a likely lead to further innovation across the fully autonomous self-driving, advanced driver
air pollution data to ensure public health and smarter, sustainable urban mobility frame- space. More widespread availability of data assistance systems (ADAS) are giving drivers
enforce breaches in regulatory compliance. work. And with every transaction, Uber gath- and analytics has also allowed companies a glimpse of what that future might look like.

New vehicles are increasingly coming with these kinds are the standard and hopefully These real-world incidents have spurred a omously change speeds, change lanes, and
automated technology to monitor blind spots, driving is safer, more accessible, and eco- mix of public, regulatory, and commercial take advanced actions like parallel park are
stay within lanes, parallel park, and trigger nomically beneficial as a result. responses. In California, legislation requiring becoming increasingly common. Mercedes
automatic emergency braking (AEB). The driv- safety operators on autonomous trucks was has begun to test Level 3 autonomous driving,
er’s experience is evolving, with ADAS reduc- Pedestrian Concerns a notable step toward ensuring safer road in- and more major auto manufacturers are slat-
ing the manual load, creating a more relaxed The advent of autonomous vehicles (AVs) teractions, but in San Francisco, the expan- ed to begin testing their Level 3 vehicles in the
yet controlled driving environment. Estimates and micromobility solutions like e-scoot- sion of driverless taxi services has prompted coming years. Some AV software developers
suggest that ADAS implementation has the ers and e-bikes in urban landscapes has protests by city officials and civic groups. have been testing robotaxi services in select
potential to prevent up to 250,000 deaths triggered a cascade of pedestrian concerns. Commercial entities are also pitching in; municipalities, with some going as high as
between 2021 and 2050, not only saving lives In Austin, Texas, complaints are rife about Cruise officials in Austin have been training Level 4 autonomy. Meanwhile, several auto
but likely also reducing insurance and health dangerous encounters with AVs, one nota- first responders to foster safer interactions manufacturers have started adding features
care costs . On the regulatory front, regulators ble incident being a Cruise vehicle veering with their AVs. As AVs and micromobility and services to their vehicles to facilitate pro-
are already proposing stricter requirements off-road into a small building. Similarly, in solutions continue to meld with urban mo- ductivity and entertainment for passengers
for AEB to mitigate high-speed collisions San Francisco, robotaxis have been report- bility, addressing pedestrian safety con- in anticipation of autonomous driving freeing
and better protect pedestrians and drivers. ed blocking traffic, obstructing emergency cerns through a combination of legislation, up drivers’ attention. Yet several major hurdles
Looking ahead, ADAS applications will con- vehicles, and causing nuisances. The micro- community engagement, and technological remain for Level 5 autonomy. Some friendly
tinue to expand. Advancements like adaptive mobility sphere isn’t devoid of issues either; advancements will be paramount. legislators have resisted pressure from stake-
cruise control and intersection assist can e-scooters and e-bikes have been associ- holders like truckers and pedestrians, giving
further mitigate risks and improve traffic ated with injuries, like in incidents report- AV Viability AV manufacturers some breathing room to
flow. Several collaborations are taking place ed where riders navigate recklessly amid Autonomous vehicles are making major begin testing and rolling out their vehicles.
across the industry to make these systems a pedestrian traffic or lose control, leading to strides in capability and level of adoption, But federal legislation to address the topic
reality. Porsche and Mobileye, for example, are accidents. Research from the US Consum- but full self-driving still remains far out of has been stuck in Congress for six years with
pushing the boundaries, developing systems er Product Safety Commission shows that reach. Most come standard with autono- no signs of life. With challenges that include
capable of full collision avoidance and other micromobility incidents increased by 21% mous features that keep them in lanes and safety concerns, cybersecurity threats, insur-
sophisticated functionalities. Such advance- year over year in 2022, as e-bikes, e-scoot- cause them to brake automatically, and ance liability risks, and questions regarding
ments portend a future where features of ers, and hoverboards grew more popular. features that allow automobiles to auton- infrastructure readiness, privacy protection,

and ethical frameworks to dictate how AVs state governments control their local streets, miles, the initial results are encouraging. the testing phase will influence whether the
make decisions in trade-off situations, full but the federal government regulates sur- Yet, challenges persist. Cruise, projected pioneering companies can achieve substan-
implementation faces many major hurdles. rounding highways; for autonomous vehicles to incur over $2 billion in losses in 2023, tial testing benchmarks to draw meaningful
That’s why Ford, for example, stopped devel- to become ubiquitous and practical, Ameri- has been striving to extend service hours comparisons with human drivers, and the
oping full self-driving in favor of nearer-term ca’s roads would need to be interoperable. and geographic coverage to bolster revenue time frame required to reach this goal.
goals like Level 3 and Level 4 autonomy. and meet the high demand. The rollout of
What’s clear is that whether it’s full self-driv- Robotaxi Growth robotaxis in Texas and California has also
ing or not, autonomy is here to stay. Robotaxis are undergoing significant test- spurred public protests, especially follow-
ing and deployment across numerous US ing a series of incidents relating to traffic
Local AV Regulations cities, with 23 states having enacted laws congestion and safety. And despite a string
As vehicles become more sophisticated, add- permitting companies to do so. Moreover, of approvals to expand service in California,
ing semi- or full-autonomous features, local at least eight other countries in Europe, the state’s DMV recently moved to suspend
governments must determine when and how Asia, and the Middle East have embraced Cruise’s permits following a number of new
to authorize their use within city limits. Many the robotaxi revolution through testing and incidents. Concurrently, a lawsuit challeng-
local governments and business communi- operations. Operating up to Level 4 auton- ing the regulatory body overseeing robotaxi
ties eye autonomous vehicles as an engine omy, robotaxis primarily function within deployments in the state has started to gain
for economic growth. Cities and states are geofenced urban areas that are well-mapped, traction, and federal authorities initiated a
exploring new ways to integrate autonomous characterized by slower speed limits, and probe into Cruise’s safety practices during
vehicles into their longer-term planning. Phoe- highly trafficked, which provides ample its operational rollout. To achieve broader
nix and Los Angeles, among other cities, are data for system refinement. Robotaxis have public acceptance, autonomous vehicles will
developing innovative approaches to design- now amassed several million miles, and need to demonstrate markedly better safety
ing, building and testing autonomous vehicle over 100,000 users wanting to experience a outcomes when compared to human drivers.
systems. Several states and cities are consid- robotaxi service are still on Waymo’s waitlist The enthusiasm from manufacturers and
ering legislation to help bring the technology alone. Although assertions that robotaxis are municipalities to expedite robotaxi adoption
to market. But regulations intended to spur safer than human-driven vehicles may be globally is palpable, yet public apprehen-
development could hit a roadblock—city and premature pending more extensive service sions and the accident incidence rate during

SCENARIOS
SCENARIO YEAR 2028
Personal Everything Mobility Platforms

While superapps were ubiquitous in Asian countries as early as the 2010s, they didn’t gain momentum in North
America until the mid-2020s. The movement began when Elon Musk pushed for X to become the everything
platform, but his vision did not come to fruition after the company failed due to advertising conflicts and us-
ers abandoning the platform. Instead, where everything platforms began to gain traction was in the travel and
mobility industries. While there’s still competition among these platforms to avoid antitrust laws, one particu-
lar platform has risen to prominence: OmniMoble, which successfully aggregated many major touchpoints and
access points for an individual’s comprehensive mobility needs. By fully integrating into users’ schedules, the
platform removes most frictions, frustrations, and hurdles that present themselves in the tediousness of every-
day life. Now, when a user is told to go on a business trip, OmniMoble will recommend, unprompted, available
livery, flight, and hotel options, accounting for both her personal preferences and company allowances. Once
she’s presented with options meeting those criteria, the user can make her selections with minimal effort. On
the day of travel, she boards her flight with ease. However, while on her flight, she realizes she didn’t pack a belt
for her business attire. From the plane, she consults OmniMoble, and it provides available options closest to her
hotel from her favorite designers. Before landing, the belt is delivered to the hotel.

ROBOTICS
& DRONES
TRENDS

COBOTS BECOME COWORKERS

Accelerated Adoption tion is also being driven by major players, as
Cobots serve to supplement or even replace Amazon seeks to expand its robotics oper-
workforces, especially those constrained by ations at fulfillment centers with updated
labor shortages. This evolution is already sorting machines, robotic arms, and mobile
happening in Japan, which is in the midst robots. This new system, Sequoia, is intend-
of a significant demographic shift, as the ed to work in collaboration with humans and
working-age population begins to decline. The is expected to increase delivery fulfillment
resulting extreme labor shortages are caus- speed by 25%. Amazon contends that this
ing industries in Japan to turn to increased increase in speed will not be at the cost of
cobot usage, but the country is also able to eliminating humans from the workforce.
undertake this endeavor because of a highly Whether or not that turns out to be true, the
computer-literate workforce. With a strong inclusion of new bots in the workforce will
knowledge base for mechanical and control likely have at least one positive outcome for
systems and IT skills to manage the cobots, human workers: They increase safety and
companies are supplementing more work- reduce human injuries.
places with these bots—and also improving
General Purpose Robots
productivity in the process. In one example,
Fujita Works has successfully incorporated Versatile, general purpose robots are the holy
cobots in welding processes, reducing the grail of robotics, promising bots that do not
time required to master welding techniques. have to be limited or pigeonholed into single
In a broader geographic lens, cobots are categories but can be used for vast and di-
expected to have a tremendous impact on verse purposes without requiring extensive
the future of work. According to Grand View calibration between disparate tasks. Sev-
Research, the collaborative robot market is eral robots are in the works that may bring
expected to grow by more than 30% by 2030, this kind of general purpose robot closer to A “Digit” robot working in an Amazon fulfillment center.
reaching a value of $11.04 billion. Cobot adop- reality. One, from startup Figure, is a versa-
Source: Amazon

tile, bipedal humanoid robot that can per- robotic arms and learn to perform different robot, is bridging the emotional gap for of what robots can offer in the home. As tech-
form a range of tasks, from manual labor to tasks. RoboCat’s approach accelerates robot- seniors, offering friendly interaction and nology continues to evolve, the role of robots
eldercare. Figure has raised $100 million and ics research by reducing the need for human ensuring their safety. The robot proactively is set to expand, heralding a future where our
hired top talent from leading tech companies, supervision, bringing us closer to versatile, engages in conversation, offers medication domestic companions are not just helpers but
including Boston Dynamics, Apple, Google, general purpose robots. reminders and issues emergency alerts; friends who share in our daily lives.
and Tesla. Its plan includes an unveiling of these aren’t just features but a leap toward
the robot this year, with a starting focus on Robots in the Home combating loneliness among the elderly. Robots Coexisting with Creative Applications
warehouse and retail applications and poten- The landscape of domestic robotics is Robosen’s Grimlock transformer toy similar- The field of robotics continues to demonstrate
tially a robotics-as-a-service (RaaS) leasing transforming homes into hubs of automa- ly provides companionship, but for kids and how possibilities are endless for application.
model. Tech startup Sanctuary AI is pursuing tion, easing daily chores and offering com- young adults. Their toy not only transforms In Switzerland, AI-powered robots are now
a similar model, and has created a humanoid panionship. For instance, robotic vacuum but is capable of understanding a variety acting as security guards where their sur-
robot named Phoenix that can perform a va- cleaners have become household staples, of commands and can communicate with veillance capabilities and real-time response
riety of workplace tasks. Standing at 5’7” and tirelessly navigating living spaces to keep those who play with it. In what is maybe the mechanisms are improving safety without
weighing 155 pounds, Phoenix is equipped them dirt-free. Similarly, robotic lawn mow- most extreme example of robotic compan- the need for human intervention. South Korea
with advanced sensors and human-like ers now keep lawns well-trimmed without ionship, individuals known as iDollators witnessed a remarkable blend of art and
hands with haptic sensors that enable it to the sweat, while robotic pool cleaners keep are even using AI-augmented synthetic robotics with EveR 6, a robot conductor that
carry out precise tasks. The robot is powered swimming areas sparkling day or night. As dolls to form sexual relationships at home. fuses music and technology, broadening the
by Sanctuary’s AI control system, Carbon, artificial intelligence has permeated these And with new ideas like Bopeep’s robotic horizon of what robots can achieve in what
which can be trained to learn new tasks either robotic devices, their ability to recognize furniture—carefully designed to overcome are typically viewed as human-centric creative
by simulation or human demonstration. But voice commands, integrate with smart home robots’ typically overbearing presence—or old domains. In the US, robots designed to handle
in order for general purpose robots to suc- ecosystems, and operate with minimal ideas brought to life like Prosper Robotics’ hazardous materials were able to execute a
ceed, real-world and simulated training data human intervention has made a significant robot butler, efforts are underway to blend mission to safely dispose of chemical weap-
is necessary to teach bots to adapt to various stride for at-home robotics and automa- household capabilities and companionship ons, reflecting a crucial application in high
tasks. RoboCat, a self-improving AI agent for tion. More recently, however, robots at home together. The fusion of AI with robotics is risk environments. In education, hundreds of
robotics, attempts to do just that. In as few are becoming hubs for companionship. For blurring the lines between the mechanical kindergarten classes are now using a small
as 100 demonstrations, it can operate various instance, ElliQ, an AI-powered companion and the emotional, pushing the boundaries robot named KeeKo, which tells stories, poses

logic problems, and reacts with facial ex- them to focus on more critical, human-cen- arms with the goal of creating an autono-
pressions when students master content. tric activities. While most people know about mous labor force for the moon and Mars to
Scientists at MIT are using a teddy bear robot NASA’s Mars Rover, NASA’s Ingenuity drone reduce space labor costs. Further extending
named Tega to improve the language and has been testing off-earth flight, recently the capabilities of space robots, NASA’s
literacy skills of 5 and 6-year-olds, and have registering one of its longest flights. There Goddard Space Flight Center is developing
so far seen positive results. While these are are also several recent examples of new OSAM-1, a satellite repair robot aimed at pro-
just a few disparate examples among many, applications for space robotics and drones longing the operational lifespan of satellites.
the versatility of robotic applications already being developed for space. On the orbital This initiative heralds the onset of in-orbit
appears endless, and the plethora of possible front, ClearSpace, a Swiss space company, is servicing and manufacturing, which could
uses for the technology will likely only grow pioneering efforts to mitigate space debris. revolutionize space infrastructure manage-
from here until robots become ubiquitous With its ambitious ClearSpace-1 project, the ment. The various projects and technologies
across our everyday experience. company is building a claw-like spacecraft in the realm of space robots and drones
capable of capturing and deorbiting space exhibit a confluence of robotics, aerospace
Space Robots and Drones junk, marking a significant step forward in engineering, and collaborative endeavors,
Space exploration has long been an area cleaning up Earth’s orbital environment. At driving forward the frontier of space explo-
that has embraced robots and drones. This MIT, researchers are testing modular lu- ration and habitation enabled by advances
technology is central to space exploration’s nar robots, equipped with flexible robotic across drones and robotics.
mission; without them, exploration of harsh arms resembling worms, showcasing how
and distant environments would be impossi- innovative approaches are being adopted
ble. Currently, NASA’s Astrobee smart robots, to navigate and interact with extraterres-
operating aboard the International Space Sta- trial terrain. Another project by ETH Zurich
tion (ISS), underscore the role of robotics in has been exploring how quadruped ANYmal
ETH Zurich’s modified quadruped ANYmal robots.
aiding scientific research and routine main- robots have the potential to exhibit robotic
tenance in space. These cube-shaped robots, teamwork in executing lunar missions, such Source: ETH ZURICH / TAKAHIRO MIKI
capable of free flight within the ISS, allow as material harvesting for base construction.
astronauts to offload mundane tasks, freeing Similarly, GITAI is building robotic rovers and

ROBOT AND DRONE INFRASTRUCTURE

Robot Compiling and Training ciently in virtual space. They can even help displays, their breadth of applications have facilitating the management of high loads of
Virtual training harnesses the power of AI, train robots to pack objects into tight spac- significantly expanded. The US and Chinese time-sensitive data. As the technology over-
simulation, and digital twins to propel the es, as was shown by MIT, which developed governments have shown a keen interest in comes these technical hurdles and continues
capabilities of robots and drones to new a technique to use virtual environments to using drone swarms across their militaries, to capitalize on emerging applications for
heights. Nvidia, in particular, has been a lead- improve robots’ ability to optimize space uti- leveraging them for surveillance, tactical the technology, drone swarms are poised to
er in this space. The company’s Isaac Sim and lization. In anticipation of robots and drones engagements, and logistical support. The have a transformative impact across various
Isaac Gym platforms simulate 3D physics in working together in reality, Nvidia’s robot agricultural sector stands to gain too, with domains.
video game–like environments, allowing for simulator recently gained the ability to sim- promising applications in pest control,
ulate human co-workers as well, mimicking monitoring, and harvesting, which are ripe Drone Fleets
parallel training sessions across numerous
virtual realms, thus significantly reducing real-world scenarios to improve robot-hu- for disruption by drone swarms. The technol- Drone fleets are steadily gaining traction as
robot and drone training time. A collaboration man interactions. This evolution in digitally ogy is also expected to highly impact emer- companies seek to enhance operational effi-
from Nvidia, UPenn, Caltech, and the Universi- enabled training not only promises a future gency response: sensor-equipped swarms ciency, reduce delivery times, and minimize
ty of Texas at Austin known as Eureka show- of highly skilled robots and drones but also can offer invaluable real-time information human intervention. Amazon, for instance, has
cases this by making use of OpenAI’s GPT-4 to hints at a paradigm shift in how training and assistance during natural disasters or been testing prescription deliveries via drones
design and refine training goals. It then runs and development in the field of robotics and search-and-rescue missions. However, the in College Station, Texas, with turnaround
through parallel simulations in virtual envi- drones are approached and the potential for path to wider adoption faces challenges. times guaranteed to fall within an hour. This
ronments to help robots learn complex tasks much more rapid development across the Real-time data processing, communication, venture not only expedites delivery times
virtually before transitioning to the real world. space in the future. and decentralized control algorithms limit but also caters to immediate medical needs,
Toyota’s AI robot recently showcased the current drone swarms to applications with marking a leap toward on-demand health
Robot and Drone Swarms limited need for adaptability due to the cur- care services. Similarly, Uber unveiled plans to
ability to master complex tasks in a matter
of hours, again highlighting the accelerated Drone swarms, made up of groups of drones rent requirement for extensive preprogram- deliver Uber Eats orders via drone, though not
learning curve that comes from virtual train- functioning as a collective unit, unlock ca- ming to effectively use them. The research direct to customers’ homes but to designat-
ing. Digital twins are also being used to help pabilities far beyond the reach of individual community is actively tackling these issues. ed locations for final delivery by drivers. This
autonomous robots and drones improve their drones. Despite their first commercial use- The University of Houston is exploring algo- hybrid model could significantly reduce meal
path-planning by navigating through various case coming in the field of entertainment rithms for better swarm control, while MIT delivery times. Wing, a subsidiary of Alphabet,
environmental conditions safely and effi- as a fireworks alternative for complex light is developing WiSwarm, a novel algorithm is on a trajectory to handle tens of millions of

ROBOT AND DRONE INFRASTRUCTURE
deliveries for millions of consumers, show- Drone Traffic Management and real-time communication capabilities,
casing the potential scale possible with drone The escalating use of drones necessitates are poised to diminish communication lags
delivery services. The collaboration between advanced traffic management solutions and effectively oversee drone operations.
Wing and Walmart to offer 6-mile drone deliv- to ensure safe and efficient operations. In Initiatives are also underway in New York,
eries over Dallas is a testament to drones’ po- the US, the Federal Aviation Administration, Oklahoma, and the UK to designate specific
tential to revolutionize retail logistics. FedEx, partnering with NASA and other bodies, is airspace corridors exclusively for drone oper-
too, is exploring autonomous drone cargo pioneering Unmanned Aircraft System Traffic ations. Notably, the UK’s Project Skyway aims
transports, hinting at a future where intercity Management (UTM) initiatives to oversee to establish a 265 km UAV corridor by 2024,
cargo transport could be drone-driven. On a low-altitude drone operations. In 2023, they marking a significant stride towards BVLOS
larger spectrum, Saildrone and the National unveiled a UTM implementation plan that in- drone operations. Concurrently, MIT has de-
Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration cludes, in the short term, devising essential veloped an algorithm centered on real-time
have collaborated to deploy sailboat drones to protocols and infrastructure, alongside long- path planning, which could be assimilated
monitor climate change’s effects on oceans; term goals like enabling real-time airspace into UTM systems to help drones dynamically
this kind of use unveils a broader scope of status updates and achieving full operation- adjust their paths, avoiding midair collisions.
drone applications beyond aerial vehicles. The al capability for routine beyond visual line Collectively, these advancements highlight
infusion of drones in these diverse domains of sight (BVLOS) drone operations. In India, the evolving realm of drone traffic manage-
underscores a promising potential for au- the rise in drone activities has fueled the ment, each contributing uniquely to foster-
tomated, efficient, and perhaps, more envi- need for sophisticated UTM systems, leading ing safe and proficient drone operations.
ronmentally friendly operational frameworks to a goal of managing a daily drone fleet of
that could come from the use of drone fleets. 10 million by 2030. Conventional aviation
As regulatory landscapes evolve to accom- traffic management, dependent on commu-
modate drone operations, the horizon seems nication between pilots and air traffic con- Rendering of Altitude Angel’s ARROW technology
expansive for drone fleets, potentially altering trollers, is inadequately equipped to handle enabling the UK’s Project Skyway.
the traditional contours of service delivery the burgeoning drone traffic. In contrast,
and environmental monitoring. UTM systems, with their digital interfaces Source: Altitude Angel

SCENARIOS
SCENARIO YEAR 2035
Drone Harvests
Over the years, drones aided precision agriculture by planting seeds, assessing crop health, and using targeted
pesticides. These integrated units have worked remarkably well to boost crop yields. But now, drones are even
able to manipulate the weather. During the early 2020s, researchers discovered that drones could target specif-
ic clouds and use lasers to trigger rainfall by forcing water droplets to pool in the air. By the turn of the decade,
this practice gained awareness, and precision ag startups began experimenting with it. Through such systems,
farmers gain even more control of the crop harvesting process by manipulating the weather with drones after
conducting health analyses on crops. They also benefit by being able to supplement irrigation systems and re-
duce associated costs. But, not surprisingly, much controversy has surrounded this new practice, as regulators
are concerned with the possible larger implications this process has on the environment. While these concerns
persist, there’s currently no effective way to limit the activity, and regulators are working diligently with preci-
sion ag startups and farmers to better monitor its use.

MOVING PEOPLE, PETS AND OBJECTS

Last-Mile Delivery to make drone delivery a key component of Expanded Payload Capacity ments. The FAA recently granted licenses for
Delivery robots and drones are significantly its last-mile delivery strategy. The regulatory Increasing payload capacities and extending unmanned commercial drones to operate
altering the logistics paradigm for last-mile landscape is also evolving to make drone de- flight distances are pivotal in accelerat- beyond a pilot’s sight, opening the door for
delivery. Companies like Uber Eats have forged livery a more tangible reality. The FAA’s BVLOS ing the adoption of drones across sectors. more commercial attempts to push the limits
partnerships with Serve Robotics to begin initiative allows for drone delivery operations In last-mile delivery, Alphabet’s Wing has of drones. Attempts include Valmont’s joint
bringing autonomous food delivery into the under specific conditions at seven test sites. increased its drone’s capacity to carry up trial with T-Mobile, where Valmont’s drone set
mainstream, though not without hurdles. Re- As these regulatory frameworks coalesce, to 7 pounds, a significant upgrade from its a record for a BVLOS operation, covering 237
cent incidents of vandalism against delivery the ensuing cost advantages and sustain- flagship drone’s original 2.5-pound capacity. miles in a single flight. In the military domain,
robots highlight the operational challenges ability benefits are making drone delivery an In the heavy-lift area of drone development, Iran recently unveiled a long-range drone, with
and financial implications faced by ventures attractive proposition for a variety of indus- Elroy Air has showcased plane-like drones the ability to cover distances of 1,240 miles
diving into this arena. However, the convic- tries. Food delivery companies like Uber Eats, capable of transporting up to 700 pounds of and up to 24 hours of operation—double the
tions of several people for incidents caused DoorDash, Domino’s, Starbucks, Taco Bell, cargo across 300 miles. This development distance of the Mohajer-6 drone, which the US
to delivery robots in LA, along with Serve’s Papa Johns, Wendy’s, and KFC have all begun could redefine how goods are transported, has accused Iran of supplying to Russia in its
claimed 99.9% delivery success rate, give rea- exploring the technology; retailers like CVS, especially in remote or disaster-stricken ar- war with Ukraine. While Iran claims its new
son for hope. On the aerial frontier, drone de- Amazon, Walgreens, GNC, Walmart, T-Mobile, eas where conventional delivery systems are drone is the longest range drone in the world,
livery enterprises Zipline and Wing have built and Tesco have begun testing or forming unviable. In China, Northwestern Polytech- that’s unlikely to be the case: Drones publicly
sophisticated delivery systems indicating an partnerships in the space. Even parcel deliv- nical University has built bionic drones that known to be in operation by the US, including
operational readiness to tackle the US market. ery companies like UPS have started drone can fly continuously for over three hours. Ultra LEAP and and Global Hawk, have shown
The trajectory of commercial drone deliveries delivery trials. The ongoing exploration by And while their exact range of expansion an ability to fly for over two days straight, and
is notable. As of the first half of 2023, approx- mainstream retailers, combined with emerg- capabilities is still an open question, hydro- experiments conducted by the US Army using
imately 500,000 commercial deliveries have ing regulatory standards, is not only pushing gen fuel storage systems being developed Airbus’ Zephyr 8 drone have been able to stay
already been made, and progress doesn’t the envelope for what’s possible in last-mile for drones through a collaboration between in flight for up to 62 days straight using solar
appear to be slowing down. Walmart, for ex- delivery but setting the stage for an exciting Honeywell and the US Department of Energy energy to sustain operation. These develop-
ample, has established drone-delivery hubs era where drones and robots could become hold the potential to dramatically increase ments collectively showcase the vast poten-
across seven US states, partnering with com- a regular facet of the logistics and delivery capacity. Regulatory frameworks are also tial for drone technology, where increased
panies like DroneUp, Flytrex, Zipline, and Wing industry. evolving to accommodate these advance- payload capacity and longer flight durations

MOVING PEOPLE, PETS AND OBJECTS
can push the boundaries of what’s possible in announced plans to introduce eVTOLs to Commercially, Yara Birkeland is a pioneering development and procurement of ocean-far-
both existing as well as unexplored domains. the UAE by 2025, and Paris is gearing up to project developed in Norway by Yara Interna- ing drones can be substantial, their long-term
introduce the world’s first electric air taxi tional and Kongsberg Gruppen, pushing the benefits are compelling. Reduced human risk,
Flying Taxis (eVTOLs) network for the 2024 Olympics in partner- boundaries in autonomous shipping. Their operational cost savings, and the ability to
The realm of urban air mobility is buzzing ship with Groupe ADP. Meanwhile, China’s vessel is designed to operate initially with conduct missions in challenging or previously
with the promise of electric vertical takeoff Ehang gained approval to start operating its a reduced crew, gradually transitioning to inaccessible environments underscore the
and landing (eVTOL) aircrafts, often referred EH216-S autonomous air taxi, capable of car- fully autonomous operations using sensors, transformative potential of these autonomous
to as “flying taxis” or “air taxis.” Like heli- rying two passengers or 600 pounds of cargo radar, and cameras, paired with artificial maritime assets. As the technology matures
copters, these vehicles are capable of taking over a flight range of 18 miles at speeds up intelligence. On the scientific front, innova- and regulatory frameworks adapt, the hori-
off and landing vertically, but unlike their to 80 mph. As the regulatory frameworks tive projects like the University of Bremen’s zons of what’s achievable on and beneath the
predecessors, they leverage electric power, evolve and public acceptance for the tech- TRIPLE (Technologies for Rapid Ice Penetra- world’s oceans are set to expand significantly,
significantly reducing their environmental nology grows, the skies of urban landscapes tion and subglacial Lake Exploration) are heralding a new era of maritime exploration,
footprint. Companies and governments are may soon be dotted with eVTOLs, heralding using AUVs to probe beneath Antarctica’s ice commerce, and security.
undertaking several initiatives throughout a new era of urban air mobility. The collab- shelves and potentially explore even alien
the US and the globe to make this new form orative efforts among aviation companies, marine ecosystems on icy moons like Jupi-
of transportation a reality. New York, Califor- regulatory bodies, and city administrations ter’s Europa and Saturn’s Enceladus. Mili-
nia, and Utah have all begun projects in this are fueling the momentum toward making taries are also exploring these technologies.
space. In partnership with Delta Air Lines, Joby air taxis a reality, promising a blend of inno- The US Marine Corps, for instance, is testing
Aviation is building vertiports to support a vation, convenience, and sustainability in a drone boat designed to transport loitering
future where passengers transfer from flying urban transportation. munitions for precision strikes and act as
taxis to their flights at New York’s JFK airport a reconnaissance platform for surveillance
and Los Angeles’ LAX airport. Utah released a Ocean-Faring Drones and intelligence. Recently, ocean-faring
report outlining plans for the rollout of verti- Ocean-faring drones, comprised of both drones have even been utilized by Ukraine
ports across the state, leveraging underuti- unmanned surface vessels (USVs) or autono- to target military ships and Russian naval
lized parking lots as potential vertiport sites. mous underwater vehicles (AUVs) are chang- bases throughout their military conflict.
Meanwhile, globally, Archer Aviation recently ing the nature of exploits across the seas. While the upfront costs associated with the

BLURRING THE HUMAN-MACHINE LINE

Natural Exoskeleton Movement the patient’s thoughts to his legs and feet ments, and recommended actions. While affect hand function. DROVE is equipped with
For individuals hampered by limited mobility through a second implant on his spine, and these technologies can be used to ease the a wheelchair-mounted digital camera system,
or injuries, exoskeletons can help. This past movements were assisted with an exoskele- burden of repetitive tasks associated with the NeuroNode interface, and home sensors
year, the FDA cleared Wandercraft’s Atalante ton. This, in conjunction with smaller exo- the logistics, construction, and health care for precise navigation, enabling users to move
exoskeleton for stroke rehabilitation in the skeletal form factors, provides innovative industries, some worry that corporations independently within their homes. Labra-
US. The self-balancing and battery-powered solutions for improving conditions for those might use the devices to exploit workers dor Systems, a California-based technology
device assists in gait training and helps with limited mobility. with increased output and working hours. company, recently launched a new product
individuals regain their walking abilities. Besides job-related tasks, researchers from named Labrador Retriever. It’s an autonomous
Superhuman Abilities Chung-Ang University in Seoul, South Korea, personal robot that can assist individuals
Ekso Bionics, which has been optimizing
exoskeleton bionic devices since 2005, used Exoskeletons can not only enhance worker have developed a wearable exoskeleton that with mobility impairments in carrying items
its technology to assist a paralyzed commu- performance in industrial settings but also enables runners to run 0.97 seconds faster around their homes. Users can place items
nity college graduate from Virginia to walk impact athletic performance. Researchers at by assisting with acceleration and hip exten- on the robot, and instruct it to move to spe-
across the stage at his graduation ceremony. Virginia Tech’s Department of Industrial and sion through electrical motors. cific locations through a touchscreen or voice
While exoskeletons have traditionally been Systems Engineering are looking into the commands. They can also program it to navi-
effectiveness of exoskeletons in real-world Personal Mobility gate between predefined “bus stops” located
large and bulky, researchers at the Swiss
Federal Institute of Technology are turning to construction applications, postulating that Robotics has the opportunity to be an in- within the house. Researchers from Stanford’s
fiber-like pumps that employ high-pressure they have the potential to significantly re- credible democratizer, capable of support- Biomechatronics Laboratory are taking more
fluidic circuits that can be woven into fibers duce the risk of back injuries and shoulder ing, supplementing, and enabling mobility of an assistive approach, having developed
and maybe even into future clothing. This problems. The robotic exoskeleton startup for individuals with mobility impairments. an exoskeleton that provides personalized
form factor would allow for less cumbersome German Bionic has showcased two products: Control Bionics is an Australian compa- assistance to improve limited mobility. The
textile-based exoskeletons that can enable the Apogee and the Smart SafetyVest. The ny that specializes in advanced assistive exoskeleton is not designed to walk for the
muscular support, thermoregulation, and Apogee assists workers by offsetting up to technology. It recently developed a wheel- user. Instead, it helps to decrease resistance
haptic feedback. In an alternative fashion, re- 66 pounds of load on the user’s lower back chair module called DROVE, which uses AI and friction, thereby enhancing walking speed
searchers at Lausanne University used brain while the Smart SafetyVest can monitor the to enhance mobility for individuals who and energy efficiency. In testing, users report-
implants to assist a paralyzed patient with wearer’s movements and body position- cannot use traditional steering systems, ed a 9% increase in walking speed with a 17%
walking. The implants wirelessly transmitted ing, providing ergonomic insights, assess- such as joysticks, due to conditions that decrease in energy used. Ultimately, these

types of applications empower users by giv- jects. Amazon has also entered this domain, ply too much force, making them unsuitable
ing them back their independence, comfort, having tested Agility Robitic’s Digit robot to for human replacement. But increasingly,
and control. work in its warehouses; it is capable of high soft robotics have been used for their ability
reach, carrying heavier loads, and interacting to gently grab and pick up objects, making
Humanoid Robots with humans. Besides these more obvi- them ideal for use in warehousing and distri-
Various companies and startups have made ous applications, Shanghai-based Fourier bution. Advances in both materials and com-
significant advancements in developing Intelligence is developing its GR-1 humanoid puter vision are enhancing the efficacy of
robots that mimic the abilities and activi- robot to address the increase in demand for soft robotics. Researchers at MIT’s Computer
ties of humans. While initially rudimentary health care services precipitated by an aging Science and Artificial Intelligence Labora-
in execution, these humanoid robots are population. The robot is envisioned as a tory have developed a robotic system called
becoming more capable and graceful by caregiver, therapy assistant, and companion Series Elastic End Effectors, which uses soft
virtue of advancements in computer vision, for the elderly. More contrastingly, scientists bubble grippers and embedded mapping
machine learning, and more power-dense at Arizona State University have developed cameras to grasp tools and apply the appro-
batteries. In most instances, these robots the Advanced Newton Dynamic Instrument priate amount of force for various tasks. The
are intended to address the challenges of robot to study the impact of extreme heat on system is adept enough to write with a pen
labor shortages and high turnover in many humans, much like a crash-test dummy is or wipe up liquid spills. Researchers from the
different industries. Tesla is recognized for used to measure the impact of car crashes. University of California, San Diego developed
its early renderings of humanoid robots and Whether using humanoid robots in labor a 3D printing method that produces soft
recently updated its associated program, Op- situations or for testing extreme conditions, robotic grippers that only require a bottle
timus, showing improved abilities in walking, there are both the clear benefits for protect- of high-pressure gas as their power source,
picking up, and identifying objects. Intel has ing humans and the perceived risk of reduc- rather than actual robotics, and is a prime
invested significantly in Figure, an AI robot- ing available menial jobs. candidate for handling delicate materials
Figure’s humanoid robots.
ics company whose general purpose Figure such as fruits and vegetables. Soft robotics
01 robot is being developed to accomplish Soft Robotics/Getting a Grip are now also able to account for weight, in Source: Figure
tasks including walking up and down stairs, Traditionally, robots have not been nimble addition to delicate touch. Researchers at
opening doors, and picking up small ob- enough to handle delicate objects: They ap- the Korea Advanced Institute of Science and

Technology developed a soft robotic gripper navigation system that takes inspiration
consisting of a woven structure capable of from ants and helps robots navigate chal-
lifting objects weighing more than 100 kilo- lenging terrains. They created an algorithm
grams. As soft robotics become more dexter- that mimics the brain processes ants use
ous, they will also become stronger. during navigation; when it’s implemented
on hardware that simulates brain compu-
Robot “Eyes” tations, the algorithm has outperformed
As with many advanced technological sys- state-of-the-art computer vision systems
tems, a constellation of disparate technol- in navigation tasks. The robotics company
ogies is required to enable the effective CynLr (Cybernetics Laboratory) uses visual
and efficient use of the technology. When it cognition and tactile feedback and action to
comes to robotics, an advanced constellation empower bots to “see.” CynLr created a visu-
of tech is required to help the robots “see.” al object intelligence platform that functions
While robots are not literally able to see their with robotic arms to achieve universal object
surroundings, vision, audio, and touch sensor manipulation, which enables the bot to pick
systems, including lidar, radar, 2D and 3D up unrecognized objects without needing
cameras, accelerometers, gyroscopes, bump to recalibrate hardware. Ultimately, these
sensors, force sensors, and temperature technologies have numerous potential ap-
sensors, are needed to help robots success- plications for systems requiring navigation,
fully navigate their surroundings. This phe- including autonomous cars.
nomenon is also known as sensor fusion. In
addition to sensor fusion, other approaches
are impacting the way robots sense the world
around them. Researchers from the Univer-
sity of Edinburgh have developed a robot CynLr’s CLX1.
Source: CynLr

SCENARIOS
SCENARIO YEAR 2035
The Evolution of Disaster Response Robotics

When imagining how robotics would impact the world of disaster response, one might have envisioned giant,
bulky, transformer-like robots that could be sent to a disaster site and push around debris in their path with
brute force. However, this approach could actually make rescue efforts more complicated. Robotics company
TechNex Robotics has been fine-tuning its MorphGuard robotics line, which consists of a swarm of tiny, shape-
shifting soft-robots measuring 3” x 3” and each weighing around 2 pounds, which employ fluid movements to
help those in distress. Taking cues from nature, researchers determined that a swarm or collection of smaller
bots could actually be greater than the sum of its parts. While not as comparably strong as their natural coun-
terpart of the ant, these small units can still lift six times their weight, and researchers are diligently working to
increase this individual capacity over time. While individually, this may not seem like much, true power comes
from the collective unit. When 50 or 100 bots are used in concert, they can deliver meaningful results. But before
they are able to lift or transport an individual to safety, they must first locate the victim. By employing fluid and
shape-shifting movements, the bots can navigate various terrains and burst through pockets of debris. Small-
er, modular bots have proven immeasurably more effective for disaster response than single-unit, bulky robots.
From these learnings, researchers are discovering additional applications for this divergent approach.

TAKING CUES FROM NATURE

Quadrupedal Robots robots, boasting more realistic movements of this activity has not all been auspicious. gineering, John Dabiri of Caltech, and Janna
Companies such as Boston Dynamics and and the perception to understand and in- Stian Rice and James Tyner at Kent State Nawroth of the Helmholtz Pioneer Campus
Unitree have popularized quadrupedal robots teract with users. While Boston Dynamics University published a scathing critique of have collaborated to create a “medusoid,” a
that can be used for a variety of purposes, uses this function to transform its bots into the practice in the journal Human Geography creature that uses rat muscle tissue attached
including security, monitoring, inspection, talking tour guides, such signals can begin called “Along came a spider … and capitalism to a silicone polymer to produce an undulat-
and data collection. As this type of robot gets to fuel our terminator-driven AI doomsday killed it.” In it, they bemoan the act of con- ing jellyfish-like robot. Besides using animal
more popular, it becomes more agile and scenarios. verting death into “useful, productive labor,” tissue in the construction of robots, some re-
used for new applications. Researchers at going so far as to say that the acts “portend searchers are using living organisms in their
Necrobotics a deepening of necrocapitalism and the robot applications. Dr. Josephine Galipon and
Carnegie Mellon University’s Robotics Insti-
tute have used a reaction wheel actuator sys- In 2022, Rice University researchers trans- violence of science.” While necrobiotics may her team at Japan’s Tohoku University have
tem to enable quadruped robots to walk on a formed a deceased spider into a robot, giving lead to the creation of low-cost, eco-friendly developed a robotic system that uses wood
narrow balance beam, making the bot more rise to a new field called necrobotics. In this substitutes for existing robotic systems, lice and chitons to serve as the effectors or
versatile and nimble. DEEP Robotics aims process, they manipulated the legs of the Rice and Tyner raise important ethical con- hands of robotic arms. While both examples
to democratize ownership of quadrupedal spider carcass with a puff of air from a sy- cerns as we continue to navigate technologi- differ at their foundation in their use of organ-
robots through its Lite3 series, with its most ringe, exploiting the spider’s natural hydrau- cal innovation. ic matter, they both call into question ethical
affordable model targeted toward technolo- lic system for opening and closing its legs. concerns that arise from this type of techno-
Over the course of the experiment, the spider Using Live Organisms (Ethically) logical experimentation. Regardless, they are
gy enthusiasts and more advanced versions
catering to research purposes and opportuni- carcass lifted over 130% of its body weight in Researchers have built applications that valuable explorations of how organic material
ties. The Lite3 bot also boasts improvements more than 1,000 open-close cycles before the use organic and biological compounds has the potential to improve robotics in ways
with the ability to perform horizontal jumps, joints degraded beyond usability. The results and now even specimens themselves for unachievable through artificial materials.
high jumps, and front flips. Researchers at inspired other research teams to further robotic applications. Robotic engineers are
explore the use of insects in robotics. Since increasingly incorporating living tissues Insect-Like and Animal-Like Designs
ETH Zurich have their sights on sending these
bots to the moon, having tested their ANYmal the experiment, the Rice University research- into traditional robotics in order to achieve As robots become more capable and sophis-
robots in simulated lunar activities. Boston ers have been recognized for ushering in complex behaviors that would be limited by ticated, engineers are turning to living organ-
Dynamics and Unitree have incorporated the era of “necrobotic” design, having been artificial materials. Kit Parker of Harvard’s isms for inspiration for overcoming even more
GPT-based technologies in their quadrupedal awarded a 2023 Ig Nobel Prize. But reception Wyss Institute for Biologically Inspired En- complex challenges. The US Navy is using

Gecko Robotics’ wall climbing and AI-powered is intended for studying soft robots, making dality in another unique way, researchers at
bots for building digital models of its vessels use of 3D models of various animals, such Northwestern University have created a soft
to reduce maintenance time and keep vessels as panda bears, fish, sharks, and caterpil- quadruped robot that could be used in haz-
out of drydock. ETH Zurich has taken inspi- lars, to ultimately determine the best config- ardous situations: it can sense damage and
ration from geckos but also spiders for its uration for a soft robot’s shape. By using na- autonomously repair itself before resuming
Magnecko, which employs electro-permanent ture as a muse, engineers are creating more movement. The robot, which is shaped like
magnet modules on its feet to walk on walls capable and adaptable artificial creatures. the letter X and powered by compressed air,
and ceilings, supporting 2.5 times its weight. has a layer of self-healing sensors on its
Caterpillars are the muse for researchers Fluid Movement top surface. The sensors are made of trans-
at North Carolina State University, whose Fluid movement enables robots to work in parent rubbery material, and if one is cut, it
robots mimic the movement of the specimen diverse environments, which holds prom- can chemically react to fuse back together.
through a system of silver nanowires that use ise in fields like medicine and machinery Researchers at the University of California,
Miniature metal shapeshifting robot liquefies itself
heat to control their movement. Jellyfish have repair. Researchers at the Soft Machines Santa Barbara have developed a vine-like
and reforms to escape a cage.
inspired researchers at the Indian Institute of Lab at Carnegie Mellon University along robot that can detect and move toward heat
Technology, while researchers at the Univer- with scientists from Sun Yat-sen University sources. The robot is also capable of mov- Source: Carnegie Mellon University
sity of Notre Dame have studied the forms of and Zhejiang University in China are making around simple obstacles and bending
sea turtles, mimicking the organism’s propul- ing breakthroughs in shapeshifting robots backward to ward off heat and could be
sion with front flippers for forward movement that are capable of moving from solid and used for search-and-rescue and firefighting
and smaller hind flippers for changing direc- liquid states through the control of mag- missions.
tion. And it’s not just real animals: Research- netic fields. This phase change allows the
ers from Tampere University in Finland have robots to accomplish feats such as jumping,
taken inspiration from mythical folklore with climbing, and even escaping from a cage.
its fairy-like robots made of stimuli-respon- Researchers envision these robots could
sive polymers capable of flight, which could be used for tasks including targeted drug
be used to pollinate crops. MIT researchers delivery, circuit assembly, or the creation of
have developed a platform called SoftZoo that universal screws. To capitalize on this mo-


Moving Across Modalities technique called Miura-ori. OrigaMechs,
Robotics are no longer limited to a single developed by researchers at the University of
modality or simple movements. They are California, Los Angeles add data processing
becoming more complex in their operation capacity to the concept of origami robots.
and maneuverability, capable of driving, The researchers have embedded flexible
jumping, crawling, and even mimicking ori- and electrically conductive materials into a
gami. Caltech is working on a versatile robot precut, thin polyester film sheet, resulting in
called the Multi-Modal Mobility Morphobot fully flexible robots that can perform various
that can switch between various modes, complex tasks without reliance on semicon-
including four-wheeled movement, crouching, ductors. As robots begin to function in mul-
climbing steep slopes, standing upright with tiple modalities, they become better suited
propellers, and turning into a flying quad- for extreme environments and are imbued
copter. Such characteristics make it a prime with new abilities for sensing, deciding, and
candidate to assist in search-and-rescue responding.
missions, as it is able to cover very diverse
terrains. Researchers at MIT have created tiny
soft-bodied robots that can be controlled by
a simple magnetic field, enabling them to
walk, crawl, and swim and making them ideal
for tasks in confined spaces and suitable for
transporting delicate cargo. Researchers at
the University of Washington have created
small robotic devices known as microfliers.
These devices can change how they descend
by folding themselves, using an origami University of Washington’s microflier.
Source: Mark Stone/University of Washington

SCENARIOS
SCENARIO YEAR 2045
Self-Regulating and Repairable Robots

QuantumSync Robotics has emerged as a trailblazer in the field, redefining the traditional boundaries in both business and
manufacturing landscapes. It’s enabled a world where robots not only perform tasks efficiently but also possess the capability
to diagnose and fix issues autonomously, leading to a new era of self-healing machines. By applying the Robotics-as-a-Service
(RaaS) business model, QuantumSync can offer customers a full suite of robotics applications from the ground up, or supple-
mental robotics that just perform the diagnostic and repair functions for a preexisting robotics system.
Robots equipped with QuantumSync’s central nervous system, known as AdaptiveMind, become highly self-aware of themselves
and the robots integrated into their ecosystem. As a robot carries out its designated tasks, such as a manufacturing component
or warehousing task, sensors and advanced diagnostics constantly evaluate its condition. When a robot detects a deviation from
optimal functioning or predicts an impending failure, it notifies the network of a self-repair protocol. The system calculates the
severity of the maintenance or repair and assigns a nearby robot with the task of resolving the issue, whether this be a simple
calibration or something more involved such as printing and extruding replacement parts. While this will affect overall perfor-
mance in the moment, such an approach reaps meaningful returns in the long run. Capable operations will be able to continue in
real time while addressing pressing issues with urgency and prioritization. By applying new business models with novel robotics,
QuantumSync Robotics continues to revolutionize a more fully automated manufacturing future.

AUTHORS &
CONTRIBUTORS

NICK BARTLETT Contributor

Director MATT HERMAN
Nick Bartlett is a Director at the Future Today Institute and leads our
Insurance practice area. Chief Executive Officer
AMY WEBB
Before FTI, he held positions in corporate strategy and insights
generation roles, serving as a partner to senior leadership at multiple
Managing Director
Fortune 100 financial services companies. Throughout his career, he
MELANIE SUBIN
has specialized in framework design, corporate innovation, strategic management, and insurance.
Creative Director
Nick has an extensive background in developing strategic insights across a variety of industries (e.g.,
EMILY CAUFIELD
manufacturing, transportation, construction, energy) and subject matter areas (e.g., small business,
mobility, robotics, platforms & ecosystems), in addition to the shifting nature of business and consumer
Editor
preferences. He has deep experience developing and implementing trend modeling and signal iden- ERICA PETERSON
tification for large organizations. Nick has also led the design and establishment of internal foresight
and scenario development capabilities across multiple institutions. Copy Editor
SARAH JOHNSON
He is a coach in the strategic foresight MBA course at the NYU Stern School of Business. Nick holds an
MBA and a Bachelor of Arts in Public Relations from Quinnipiac University. Director of Operations
CHERYL COONEY

SELECTED
SOURCES

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carbonize-transportation.

COMPUTING
TECH COMPUTING
TABLE OF CONTENTS
457 Top Headlines 474 AI-Driven Chip Design 485 Living AIs Solve Equations 493 Photonic Computing 500 Multi-tasking Quantum
Architecture
458 State of Play 474 Custom AI Chips 485 BCI + Robots 500 Light-based Quantum
493 Photonic Cellular Automata Technologies
460 Key Events 474 ARM-based PC Chips 486 Soft Implantables
494 Magnon-based Computation 501 Scenario: Criminal Caught
461 Likely Near Term 475 Manufacturing Intelligence 486 Nanowire Networks Emulate
495 Quantum Computing With Quantum
Developments 476 Personal Computing Our Memories
502 Networking
486 Imitating Human Perception: 496 Quantum Advantage
462 Why Computing Trends 477 Everywhere Input
Advancing Computer Vision 496 Global Quantum Competition 503 Scenario: Communal Compute
Matter to Your Organization 477 Smart Textiles
487 Storing Images in DNA With at the Stadium
463 When Will Computing Trends 496 Quantum Noise Reduction
477 Human-Centric Pervasive Biological Camera 504 AI at the Edge
Impact Your Organization? Computing 497 Quantum Error Detection
487 DNA-Based Molecular and Correction 504 Efficiency Improvements
464 Opportunities and Threats 478 Wearable AI Computing
497 Hybrid Classical-Quantum 504 The 6G Cyber-physical
465 Investments and Actions 479 The Convergence of Gaming 488 Image Reconstruction Continuum
To Consider Devices for Productivity 497 Quantum Quality Over Quantity
489 Scenario: The Digital DNA 505 6G Global Competition
466 Central Themes 480 Scenario: Silent Signals Walkers 498 Quantum Machine Learning
505 First 6G Real-time Wire
468 Ones To Watch 481 Right to Repair 490 Scenario: AI + OI + LOE 498 The Quantum Internet Transmission
469 Important Terms 481 Maximum Cooling to Minimize 491 Advanced Large Scale 498 Open-Source Quantum 505 Reducing Inference for 6G
PC Size Computing Software
471 Chips 506 Wi-Fi 7
481 LLMS as Operating Systems 492 Exascale Supercomputing 499 A Developers’ Quantum
472 Chip Onshoring Toolbox 507 Scenario: The Sisyphus
482 Personal Computers on Wheels 492 Supercloud Program: A Physical-Digital
472 Chip Talent Shortage 499 Quantum-as-a-Service Continuum
483 Biological Computing 492 Serverless Cloud
473 Chips to Optimize AI Workload 499 Quantum Resistant 508 Authors
484 Neuromorphic Computing 493 Alternative Energy for Data Cryptography
473 Photonic Chips Center 510 Selected Sources
485 Organoid Intelligence
473 RISC-V

TECH COMPUTING
TOP HEADLINES 01 Computing industry moves in-house

As geopolitical tensions and supply chain concerns rise, there has been a push
toward on-shoring critical technologies, such as semiconductors and 6G-enabling
AI’s demand for technologies. The US and its allied nations have imposed export restrictions on
semiconductors and related equipment to China.
computational power
challenges computing 02 AI workloads demand new architectures
The commercialization of AI requires novel architectures to manage its demanding
paradigms, driving workloads, spurring research into computer architecture design. Companies are looking
to alternative energy sources like nuclear and geothermal to power data centers.
researchers to rethink
architectures and 03 Organoid Intelligence Represents A New Computing Frontier
Organoid intelligence harnesses stem cell-derived brain organoids to explore
governments to rethink learning, memory, and cognition, potentially creating a biological computer.
semiconductor policies. 04 New techniques emerge for error-prone quantum computers

Quantum researchers are focused on tackling the noise and error issues inherent
to quantum computing.
05 AI-centric form factors emerge for personal computing

As AI transforms how we engage with computers, businesses are exploring new
interfaces and user experiences, focusing on AI-driven interactions. This includes voice-
controlled wearables and portable devices with chatbots as their core, making AI more
central to our interactions.
TECH COMPUTING
STATE Driven by artificial intelligence, humans and computers are in a virtuous cycle: a self-re-
inforcing loop where advancements in one area lead to progress in the other, and vice
versa. In this case, humans created computers, which improve human productivity. More
OF PLAY
advanced humans created more advanced computers and so on. As the virtuous circle
goes round and round, the separate entities—humans and computers—will get closer and
closer to one another.
AI’s voracious computational appetite is prompting companies and researchers to rethink

conventional computing architectures. The Von Neumann architecture, which propelled
the silicon era to this point, is now insufficient for meeting AI’s computational demands.
To unlock the full potential of AI in an energy-efficient, cost-effective way, researchers are
AI is enabling novel form factors for more experimenting with alternative computing architectures, and they are finding inspiration
by looking inward—to the human brain itself. As the most efficient computing system
natural human-computer interaction, while known, the brain’s architecture is ideally suited for AI workloads.
its intensive workloads challenge existing So, researchers came up with neuromorphic computing, computer architectures inspired
by the biological brain’s structure and function. Just like our brains, neuromorphic com-
computing models. These developments, puters can simultaneously store and process information, a capability that makes them
combined with the risks of advanced AI more energy efficient than classical computers. Researchers at Johns Hopkins University
are taking this even further. Last year they broke ground on a new computing field called
in adversarial hands and supply chain organoid intelligence. Whereas neuromorphic computing aims to mirror the brain’s effi-
vulnerabilities, are leading the US and allies ciency in the design of computing systems using silicon, organoid intelligence aims to
utilize the inherent capabilities of biological materials or systems for information pro-
to reevaluate their trade relationships. cessing. Basically, organoid intelligence uses human brain cells as a computer.
This isn’t merely a matter of drawing inspiration from the brain; it’s an endeavor to adapt
and enhance our innate physiological blueprint to fabricate computational devices that
not only match the efficiency of the human brain but surpass it in intelligence. Simulta-
neously, breakthrough technologies like soft implantable brain-computer interfaces are

TECH COMPUTING
STATE facilitating the tangible integration of our biological essence into computational systems.
The future of computing, it seems, is not an external tool that we engage with but rather,
the future of computing is an innate element fused into our sensory perception, motor
OF PLAY
control, and cognitive processing. This vision posits a future where computing is no longer
an external interaction but an integrated aspect of our very being.
To get to a future where computing seamlessly merges with the human experience, it’s
crucial to recognize that this technological progression won’t occur in a vacuum. It is in-
tertwined with, and frequently stimulated by, a complex mosaic of geopolitical events and
international frictions. This can be observed in the mounting tensions, chiefly between the
US and China, over powerful chips. The US and its allies are implementing restrictions on
the export of advanced semiconductors and their manufacturing equipment to China. The
effectiveness of these restrictions, however, is challenging to ensure. China has already
bypassed these export controls and obtained sophisticated Nvidia chips. Additionally,
technologies like RISC-V, freely downloadable from the internet, will likely become pivotal
for Chinese companies and government entities aiming to rival US expertise in semicon-
ductor design.
There is also a battle between the US and China over the pursuit of quantum suprema-
cy. The first nation to achieve this could place the other in a precarious position from a
national security standpoint. The sense of urgency is further amplified by an increasingly
protectionist global outlook, catalyzed by the vulnerabilities in worldwide supply chains
exposed by the COVID-19 pandemic. Consequently, governments worldwide are taking
measures to repatriate the production of vital technologies, a movement that includes
quantum technologies, semiconductors, and even the emerging realm of 6G telecommu-
nications. This intricate nexus of innovation and geopolitics is a testament to our age—a
time of immense change and potential, when computing not only drives our technologies
but also shapes the very contours of our societal and global narratives.

TECH COMPUTING
KEY EVENTS
F E B R UA RY 2 8 , 2 0 2 3 M AY 2 2 , 2 0 2 3 N OV E M B E R 6 , 2 0 2 3
OI: A new scientific field Long-distance quantum internet US Further Restricts Chip Exports
Scientists form a new field, Researchers achieve the first long- The measures aim to tighten
organoid intelligence (OI), distance quantum repeater node for China’s access to US semiconductor
considered the frontier of telecommunications, transmitting technology, a key element in
biocomputing. quantum information over 50 km. developing powerful AI platforms.
MARCH 21, 2023 JUNE 14, 2023
GPU-accelerated quantum device Closer to quantum advantage

Nvidia announces the world’s UC Berkeley/IBM paper
first GPU-accelerated quantum demonstrates a path toward
computing system. quantum advantage over
classical computers.

TECH COMPUTING

AI, ARCHITECTURE & ALLEGIANCE Research and Debates on OI Chip Freedom Surge in Q-Day Preppers
Geopolitical tensions are accelerating
Expect a surge in organoid intelligence Expect a rise in RISC-V adopters as it trans- Businesses will prepare more seriously for
some key computing developments.
research. Organoids may be the key to AI’s forms the chip industry. Offering freedom “Q-Day”—when quantum computers can
Expect semiconductor talent shortages
efficient boost, but the convergence of AI and from costly licenses, RISC-V enables custom, break internet encryption protocols. As China
as nations adjust how they manage skills
OI may stir ethical debates. application-driven hardware, making chip and the US both achieve breakthroughs to-
for self-reliance. Also expect the rush design more accessible, thereby lowering the ward quantum advantage, expect a surge in
to prepare for “Q-Day” to become more entry barrier. investments in this domain.
urgent as countries race toward quantum
advantage. We will see more companies
boast quantum-resistant cryptography Semiconductor Skills Shortage The New BYOD Policy: Gaming Devices AI-Driven Form Factors
as a value proposition. And as countries
become more wary of supply chain dis- Anticipate a talent crunch in the semicon- AI requirements will spur non-gamers toward Expect an emergence of new form factors
ruptions, more inputs will be brought in- ductor sector as countries aim to internalize powerful gaming devices, prompting demand driven by AI, that diverge from the conventional
house. As nations do this, RISC-V adoption production. This skill gap will necessitate for enterprise software integration. This laptop, keyboard, and mouse setup, as AI facil-
may increase. refocusing, driving universities and commu- signals a new wave of bring-your-own-de- itates more intuitive communication methods.
nities to prioritize these skills. vice hardware—powerful yet portable. Expect We might also see a surge in specialized de-
Technological developments in AI are also increased enterprise application integration vices designed for specific AI applications, like
driving near term developments. To power with such devices. dedicated translation gadgets or AI-enhanced
AI, companies are rethinking computing cameras.
architectures using inspiration from the
human brain and existing gaming devices. 11 MACRO SOURCES OF DISRUPTION
AI will soon flip the script on human-com-
puter interaction; rather than users
learning to operate computers, AI allows
computers to learn to interact on human
terms. With AI, the computer will adapt to
the person—not the other way around. Telecom Distribution

TECH COMPUTING
WHY COMPUTING TRENDS MATTER TO YOUR ORGANIZATION
Chip Talent Achieving Using AI to Design Portable PCs: From Investment in Unintended
Shortage Independence Chips for AI Gaming to the Quantum-Resistant Consequences of
With RISC-V Enterprise Cryptography Export Controls
Semiconductor RISC-V’s open-source AI-designed chips The portable PC market, Quantum superiority As the US tightens
companies may face nature empowers may increase product initially fueled by poses an existential threat restrictions on
growth constraints due companies to customize performance and gamers, shows promise to business data. The semiconductor exports,
to a scarcity of skilled chip designs, catering to reduce costs, shifting for enterprise users as first to achieve quantum the potential for Chinese
workers, which could slow specific needs. Its free- competitive dynamics and a lightweight, powerful advantage will be able to retaliation poses a threat
innovation or production to-use model makes it market shares. For talent, secondary device. Portable upend security by quickly to the global consumer
delays. These difficulties attractive for budget- expect less demand PCs could soon be viewed cracking encryption or by electronics market.
can ripple through to conscious companies. for chip designers and as a BYOD option for unmasking anonymized China’s dominance in
other industries, such as This lessens dependence more for AI specialists. enterprises, disrupting data. Mitigating this risk legacy chip production,
automotive, which heavily on particular vendors, The AI optimization reliance on laptops. If will require a complete critical for a wide range of
rely on semiconductors. mitigating supply chain of chip design could optimized for business, transition to quantum- products, from household
Amid rising geopolitical risks and bolstering disrupt semiconductor portable PCs may find safe cryptographic appliances to military
tensions, companies that resilience. Particularly in market leadership, with a role as compact work algorithms. Though the hardware, means these
secure talent may gain a China, RISC-V advances innovators gaining the devices, expanding security challenges are restrictions could lead to
competitive edge. national objectives of upper hand. Further, hardware and software daunting, solutions are higher prices and scarcity
curtailing foreign IP cost-effective chip design markets. emerging to fortify for the of various consumer
reliance and achieving may spur innovation in quantum era. electronics globally.
semiconductor self- AI-dependent sectors,
sufficiency. leading to new business
opportunities.

TECH COMPUTING
WHEN WILL COMPUTING DISRUPT YOUR ORGANIZATION?
Chip talent shortage Person-centric form factors 6G Physical-cyber continuum
AI at the edge Enterprise supercloud use Commercial BCI Biocompute outperforms classic
Work-ready gamer devices Quantum-resistant cryptography Commercialized DNA storage True quantum advantage
as a value proposition
True pervasive computing

TECH COMPUTING

Ethical debates about organoid intelligence’s human-like cognition may impede RISC-V’s open architecture democratizes chip design, empowering innovation
research, delaying innovations in health care, computing, and robotics. and strategic autonomy for companies and nations, reducing reliance on external
suppliers.
Reshoring semiconductor manufacturing to the United States can involve
significantly higher costs compared to overseas production, requiring government Applying AI to optimize chip design unlocks major performance and cost
subsidies and policy reforms to offset higher domestic labor and tax expenses if efficiencies, enabling next-gen semiconductors accessible to more applications.
the U.S. aims to make domestic chip fabrication globally competitive.
Neuromorphic computing’s efficiency from processing and storing data
With notable talent shortages in semiconductors, onshoring success requires simultaneously is a breakthrough for energy optimization vital for sustainability
workforce development, immigration reform, and public-private partnerships for across industries.
training.
Neuromorphic chips’ brain-like adaptability can revolutionize machine learning,
Integrating neuromorphic systems with existing computer architectures poses making algorithms more robust and powerful for transformative AI applications.
complex challenges for synchronizing biological cognition with digital logic
requiring new design paradigms. Quantum internet provides virtually unhackable communications, realizing
enhanced data/infrastructure security to protect information at unprecedented
Organoid and neuromorphic technologies risk ethical and legal scrutiny over levels.
human-like synthetic intelligence; clear governance is needed to enable innovation
responsibly. Quantum-as-a-service opens quantum’s potential to more industries and
researchers, fostering innovation and progress toward real-world impact.
Quantum advantage may enable cracking encryption, threatening security; global
rules and norms are needed to prevent misuse while fostering continued progress. More efficient AI edge models expand access for new applications and users, driving
innovation and economic opportunity by democratizing transformative technology.
Increasing US-China tension over quantum risks could stifle collaboration; a
technology embargo could cede leadership. Cooperative policy is key to preventing
a tech cold war.

TECH COMPUTING
1 2 3 4 5 6
As AI permeates enterprise For enterprises using Prepare for 6G by investing Create domestic internship Diversify sourcing of Fund research on
apps, modify software hybrid and multicloud, now in the foundational and apprenticeship critical components organoid intelligence and
and operating systems consider implementing technologies that will programs to build talent to reduce overreliance neuromorphic computing,
to support mobile form the supercloud to save enable the immersive pipelines in semiconductor and risk from any single enabling collaborations
factors like gaming PCs, developers time managing experiences promised and quantum skills, where country or region, and to translate findings into
which already offer complex multicloud by a 6G-enabled cyber- shortages loom due to improve resilience. Build commercial technologies.
advanced portability and environments. Supercloud physical continuum. For onshoring. Partner with relationships with multiple Partner with academia and
processing that mobile abstraction layers instance, consider investing schools to develop a suppliers and partners to startups on initiatives like
workers will expect. Enable integrate disparate clouds in technologies like homegrown workforce mitigate concentration brain-inspired chips and
apps on compact yet into one platform, handling terahertz communications, proficient in these and gain flexibility to adapt synthetic neural tissues
powerful devices, and management overhead advanced edge computing, technologies vital for to changing political and to drive innovation in
support policies like BYOD so developers can focus integrated satellite national strategic interests. market conditions. human-like cognition for
as gaming converges with on revenue-generating networks, and advanced applications from health
productivity needs. activities. materials. care to robotics.

TECH COMPUTING
CENTRAL THEMES
AI-Driven Design Protectionist Policies, Attitudes Computing Gets More Personal
As AI’s computational demands grow, traditional ar- The 2022 Chips Act provides roughly $280 billion to boost Computers are becoming deeply integrated with us,
chitectures are falling short, paving the way for alter- domestic research and manufacturing of semiconductors redefining the “personal” in personal computing. De-
natives like photonic and neuromorphic computing. in the US, aiming to make the country less vulnerable to vices such as MIT Media Lab’s AttentivU glasses enable
Photonic computing leverages light’s speed for faster disruptions in the supply chain by bringing semiconduc- us to control robots like Boston Dynamics’ Spot with
tor fabrication plants in-house. We’re now seeing similar
and energy-efficient computations, providing a paral- our eyes, while spray-on meshes developed by Seoul
protectionist attitudes emerge in other strategic technology
lelism suitable for AI’s requirements. Neuromorphic National University and Stanford University enable AI
areas like quantum computing and the technology that will
computing, mimicking the brain’s structure, merges to interpret our hand gestures. Everyday objects are
eventually enable 6G. However, despite subsidies, this shift
memory and processing, drastically reducing data transforming into interactive interfaces, and as tech
may still increase US production costs compared to coun-
fetch times for AI tasks. We aren’t just reevaluating the tries like Taiwan, pressuring chip producers. It could also advances, our devices comprehend us more intimately.
architectures themselves—we are reevaluating how we trigger talent shortages in relevant skills. While the goal is We’re becoming interfaces for devices, which are mor-
even think about the architecture. And it may be the technological independence, these protectionist strategies phing into extensions of us. Screens are moving closer
case that we aren’t the best candidates for the job. The may have implications on cost, talent acquisition, and glob- to our faces via glasses and AR/VR headsets, while our
best candidate for designing an architecture suited to al cooperation in key tech sectors. Pursuing self-reliance has brains can control artificial limbs, exemplifying this
AI just might be AI. It’s aiding in optimizing transistor trade-offs. profound integration. Even our own skin can be an
placement, addressing cost, speed, and power efficien- interactive interface, as seen with Cornell University’s
cy issues. AI’s impact is thus two-fold; it’s driving the SkinPaper, which facilitates on-skin interactions for a
demand for advanced computation and also contribut- range of applications, from art to health care.
ing to its design.

TECH COMPUTING
CENTRAL THEMES
Accelerating Growth Through Open Source Abstraction: Layers on Layers Researchers Take on Noise
Open-source software is spreading into new domains As computing grows more complex, new abstraction Quantum computers face significant reliability chal-
previously dominated by proprietary solutions. One layers emerge to simplify access. In quantum com- lenges due to noise and errors that introduce inaccu-
example is in quantum computing, where the high puting, companies like Horizon Quantum Computing racies during computations. “Quantum noise” refers to
costs of proprietary hardware and software has made compile classical code so developers can program the inherent fluctuations and uncertainties that arise
quantum experimentation inaccessible for most re- without grasping quantum mechanics. Quantum- in quantum systems due to the principles of quan-
searchers. Open-source quantum software toolkits like as-a-service similarly insulates users from hardware tum mechanics. Researchers are pursuing various
Qiskit and SuperConga are changing this by providing intricacies. Conventional computing exhibits similar strategies to mitigate these issues. Noise reduction
free access to simulate quantum circuits and mate- abstraction layers upon layers. Early cloud computing techniques aim to isolate qubits from environmen-
rials. This allows a broader community to collaborate abstracted physical servers, enabling users to focus on tal disturbances that cause errors. Other approaches
and drive innovation in quantum computing. Similarly, applications without infrastructure concerns. Now “su- focus on modeling the impact of noise to estimate and
open-source chip architectures like RISC-V are trans- percloud” layers integrate disparate cloud platforms, subtract out its effects after computations finish. There
forming the semiconductor industry. Traditionally, further simplifying management and cross-ecosystem are also efforts to optimize qubit connectivity to reduce
companies like Intel and Arm have controlled chip de- operations. These abstraction layers divorce users from noise. Progress is happening, but substantially reduc-
sign and manufacturing, but RISC-V makes instruction technical complexities, dramatically streamlining pro- ing errors remains an ongoing challenge. The inherently
set architectures freely available for anyone to build cesses. Developers avoid wrestling with infrastructure probabilistic nature of quantum physics means some
custom chips. By opening access, open source allows intricacies, innovating instead at higher levels. Users baseline of noise will likely persist. However, research-
more minds to tackle complex problems together, interact with user-friendly interfaces rather than deal ers are encouraged by experimental demonstrations
leading to advancements in fields that were previously with technical details. showing meaningful computations are possible even
dominated by closed, proprietary systems. on today’s error-prone hardware. Continued incremental
advances in mitigating noise will help make quantum
computers more robust and capable. Despite remain-
ing limitations, researchers in this field are optimistic
about eventually achieving practical applications.

TECH COMPUTING
ONES TO WATCH
Alireza Marandi, assistant professor of electri- Dirk Grundler, head of the Lab of Nanoscale Jonathan Xu, researcher at Stanford and the Sunil Pai, quantum architect at PsiQuantum,
cal engineering and applied physics at Cali- Magnetic Materials and Magnonics in the National University of Singapore, for his work on for research that demonstrates in situ back-
fornia Institute of Technology, for research on School of Engineering at the Swiss Federal In- brain image reconstruction using fMRI. propagation can train photonic neural networks
photonic cellular automata. stitute of Technology, Lausanne, for research on to solve a task.
magnon-based computation. Mikael Fogelström, professor of theoretical
Alon Loeffler, synthetic biological intelligence physics at Chalmers, for his work on SuperCon- Thomas Hartung, professor at Johns Hopkins,
postdoctoral scientist at the University of Syd- Brad Aimone, a Distinguished Member of ga, an open-source framework for mesoscopic for his work to develop a collaborative, multi-
ney, for demonstrating nanowire networks can Technical Staff in the Center for Computing superconductivity. disciplinary program that aims to establish
exhibit both short- and long-term memory like Research at Sandia National Laboratories, for organoid intelligence as a genuine form of
the human brain. research on neuromorphic computing. Nataliya Kos’myna, research scientist at MIT, biological computing.
for work on brain computer interface systems
Ben Lanyon, physicist in the Department of Chueh Loo Poh, principal investigator and pro- and research on fluid interfaces. Vasha DuTell, postdoctoral fellow at MIT, for her
Experimental Physics at the University of Inns- fessor at the College of Design and Engineering work on perceptual straightness in computer
bruck, for his work on the first long-distance at the National University of Singapore, and the Pat Pataranutaporn, research assistant at MIT, vision.
quantum repeater node for telecommunication NUS Synthetic Biology for Clinical and Techno- for his research on synthetic virtual humans
and synthetic biology, specifically at the inter- Yasha Iravantchi, doctoral candidate at Univer-
networks. logical Innovation, for work on developing a bio-
face between biological and digital systems. sity of Michigan EECS, for work on developing
logical camera that captures and stores images
Brian Johnson, postdoctoral researcher at Uni- novel sensing hardware, particularly SAWSense.
directly into DNA.
versity of Colorado Boulder, for developing new Patric Holmvall, postdoctoral researcher in
condensed matter physics at Uppsala Univer- Youngseok Kim and Andrew Eddins, research
soft actuators, sensors, and control algorithms Hussam Amrouch, professor of AI processor
sity, for work on developing open-source, freely scientists with IBM Quantum, for their 2023 pa-
for intelligent robotic materials. design at the Technical University of Munich,
available software to speed quantum research. per “Evidence for the Use of Quantum Comput-
for work on energy-saving AI chips.
Christina Tringides, postdoctoral fellow at ETH ing Before Fault Tolerance.”
Zürich, for research on hydrogel scaffolds for Sanghyo Lee, senior research associate at Uni- Sajant Anand, Ph.D. candidate at University
of California, Berkeley, for research on tensor Bradley Theilman, a postdoctoral appointee at
neural cell differentiation. versity of Cambridge, for work on development
network algorithms for simulation of quantum Sandia National Laboratories, for research on
of next-generation smart textiles.
Cindy Hsin-Liu Kao, assistant professor and many-body systems on both classical and neuromorphic computing.
director of the Hybrid Body Lab at Cornell, for Gordon H.Y. Li, graduate student at California quantum computing.
work on wearable and ubiquitous computing, Institute of Technology, for research on photon-
particularly on-skin interfaces. ic cellular automata.

TECH COMPUTING
IMPORTANT TERMS
Biocomputer Exascale computers Magnonics Parallel spatial computing
A computer that uses biological molecules like DNA Supercomputers capable of performing over 1 Aims to develop devices and circuits that use mag- Computer architectures optimized to perform many
and cells to store and process information. exaFLOPS, which is a quintillion calculations per nons for information processing and transmission. operations simultaneously across a large grid or
second. array of simple spatial processing elements.
Brain-computer interface (BCI) Moore’s law
A direct interface between the brain and comput- Fault tolerance The observation made by Intel co-founder Gordon Perceptual straightness
er that can enable control and communication by The ability of a quantum system to operate reliably Moore in 1965 that the number of transistors on an The ability to perceive dynamic visual information
thought alone, with potential to help people with despite errors and noise. integrated circuit doubles about every two years. Re- and transform it into a stable mental representation.
disabilities as well as elucidate cognition. cent challenges suggest Moore’s law is approaching
Form factor fundamental limits due to physics and cost. Pervasive (ubiquitous) computing
Cellular automata The overall physical attributes and dimensions of a Aims to seamlessly integrate computer hardware
Computational models that evolve in discrete space device according to standard specifications or for Nanowire networks and software into all objects and activities, creating
and time according to simple rules based on local particular use cases. It impacts the usability and Meshes or arrays of nanoscale wires used to build an always available, helpful computing environment.
neighbor interactions. compatibility of hardware. devices and circuits. They can exhibit unique opti-
cal, electrical, thermal, and chemical characteristics. Photonic chips
Central processing unit (CPU) Graphics processing unit (GPU) Integrated circuits that generate, manipulate, and
The key computer component that performs the A specialized circuit designed to rapidly process and Neuromorphic computing detect light waves and photons to process informa-
computations, makes decisions on data, and tells manipulate computer graphics and image data. Computer architectures that are inspired by the tion.
the other components what to do. You can think of it biological brain’s structure and function.
as the computer’s mission control center. Hybrid classical-quantum Q-Day
A computational architecture that combines both Open source The hypothetical point in the future when a fully
Classical computer classical computers and quantum computers to Computer software or other products with source operational quantum computer capable of running
The standard binary digital computer that manip- exploit the complementary strengths of each. code that anyone can inspect, modify, and enhance. practical quantum algorithms finally becomes
ulates zeros and ones to store data and perform available.
computations sequentially using hardware chips Machine learning Organoid intelligence
and switches. A subfield of artificial intelligence that trains al- A new scientific field of study that aims to actual- Quantum advantage
gorithms to learn from data, identify patterns, and ize biological computing by utilizing 3D cultures of Also known as quantum supremacy, refers to the
make predictions or decisions without being explic- human brain cells and brain-machine interfaces. potential capability of quantum computers to solve
itly programmed.

TECH COMPUTING
IMPORTANT TERMS
certain problems that are intractable for classical Quantum entanglement RISC-V
computers in practical timeframes. A phenomenon in which two or more quantum An open-source instruction set architecture based
particles are intrinsically linked to each other in on established reduced instruction set computer
Quantum-as-a-service such a way that the state of one particle cannot be (RISC) principles.
The provision of quantum computing resources on described independently of the others, even when
demand as a cloud service. separated by a large distance. RSA encryption
A public-key algorithm currently widely used for
Quantum circuit model Quantum internet secure data transmission that will become insecure
The most common model for quantum program- A hypothetical global quantum communication in the quantum era. RSA security depends on the
ming and computation. One key aspect is that network that connects quantum processors using difficulty of factoring large integers, which quantum
programs are expressed as circuits consisting of quantum entanglement and teleportation. computers will be able to efficiently solve.
qubits and quantum gates operating on the qubits.
The circuit model provides a simple abstraction to Quantum superposition Superconductor
reason about quantum programs. Allowing a quantum system to exist in multiple pos- A material that can conduct electricity with zero
sible states at the same time until it is measured. electrical resistance. This means that, unlike typical
Quantum computer The quantum parallel processing enabled by superconductors, superconductors can carry an electrical
A type of computer that utilizes quantum mechan- position is fundamental to achieving speedups and current indefinitely without losing any energy to
ical phenomena like superposition and entangle- novel applications using quantum computers. heat or electrical resistance.
ment to perform computations. Unlike classical
computers which operate on binary bits (0 or 1), Qubit
quantum bits, or qubits, these computers can The basic unit of information in quantum comput-
represent a 0, 1, or a quantum superposition of both ing. Unlike classical bits, qubits can be in a superpo-
states at the same time. Since they consider multi- sition of 0 and 1 simultaneously. The superposition,
ple possibilities simultaneously, they can potentially entanglement, and interference properties of qubits
be vastly faster at some types of problems than are what allow quantum algorithms to efficiently
classical computers. solve certain problems that are believed to be intrac-
table on classical computers.

TECH COMPUTING
CHIPS

TECH COMPUTING
CHIPS
Chip Onshoring onshoring is often costlier. In a recent sub- next few years, ballooning to a shortfall of
The CHIPS Act, signed into law in August mission to the US Commerce Department, 300,000 engineers and 90,000 technicians
2022, has sparked numerous initiatives to TSMC complained the Phoenix plant would by 2030. Due to a shortage of skilled labor,
bolster the US semiconductor industry. Over cost substantially more than an equivalent TSMC has reported new delays in the prog-
50 new chip facility projects have been an- facility in Taiwan, citing higher wages and ress of its $40 billion Arizona facility. The
nounced since the legislation was introduced, taxes, lower productivity, a greater likelihood skills gap extends beyond America’s borders.
with private companies pledging over $210 of delays, and more stringent regulations. Taiwan, a leader in cutting-edge chipmak-
billion in investments. Intel unveiled plans ing, faced a shortage of over 30,000 work-
These onshoring initiatives coincide with a
for a $20 billion chip fabrication complex ers at the end of 2021, up 77% from 2020.
tightening of tech export controls to China.
outside Columbus, Ohio; Micron plans to China’s massive semiconductor industry is
In March 2023, NVIDIA introduced the H800
invest up to $100 billion over the next 20-plus wrestling with a shortfall of 300,000 skilled
chip, compliant with Commerce Department
years; Samsung is exploring building 11 plants workers. South Korea expects at least 30,000
guidelines and a substitute for the restricted
in Texas with one plant already costing the fewer skilled workers than required over the
H100 chips in China. October 2023 saw new
chipmaker $25 billion ($8 billion more than next decade as universities produce less
restrictions halting China-specific A800 and
forecasted). General Motors announced an than half the number of graduates needed.
H800 exports, disrupting NVIDIA’s plans to
unprecedented, long-term partnership with In Japan, major manufacturers warn that
fulfill additional orders. This shift forced Chi-
GlobalFoundries, which will establish dedi- the industry’s revival is in jeopardy with-
na to turn to non-US chip suppliers, resulting
cated chip production capacity exclusively out 35,000 additional engineers. European
in companies like Baidu, a long-term NVIDIA
for GM in upstate New York. Taiwan Semicon- semiconductor growth is also hampered by
client, opting for Huawei’s AI chips instead.
ductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC), the world’s a substantial talent deficit, industry lead-
largest advanced chip manufacturer, broke ers say. The push to reshore semiconductor
Chip Talent Shortage
ground on a major facility in Phoenix and in- manufacturing has put the unintended con-
The global semiconductor industry is grap- The booming US semiconductor sector faces a
creased its investment to $40 billion. The aim sequences into sharp focus. While bringing shortage of skilled chip fabrication skills, raising
pling with a shortage of skilled talent. Ac- chip production back to America could bol-
of the onshoring efforts is to reduce US vul- concerns that a lack of qualified talent could jeop-
cording to some estimates, the US will face ster supply chain security, developing talent
nerability to foreign disruptions. However, the ardize billions invested in expanding domestic chip
a deficit of 70,000 to 90,000 workers over the will take time.
US is making a trade-off with this approach; manufacturing.

TECH COMPUTING
CHIPS
Chips to Optimize AI Workload plans to provide access to NVIDIA’s next-gen- ing light rather than electricity, show prom- RISC-V
Embedding advanced AI comes at a com- eration H200 GPUs through a specialized ise in improving efficiency. They are more en- RISC-V, an open-source computer chip ar-
putational cost. For instance, researchers computing cluster, accessible to both AWS ergy efficient than alternatives because they chitecture, is disrupting the semiconductor
estimated that for Google to add GPT-3 into customers and NVIDIA. To reduce dependence excel at performing matrix multiplications, industry. Traditionally, companies like Intel
every search query, it would need 2.7 billion on Nvidia, Microsoft has developed its propri- a fundamental operation in deep learning designed proprietary chip blueprints and sold
of NVIDIA’s old A100 chips, which would cost etary AI chip designed for training LLMs. Ad- models. But until now, the application of pre-made chips to customers. Conversely,
more than $40 billion. This staggering price ditionally, the company has created its own photonic AI chips was limited to inference RISC-V specifications are free for anyone to
tag highlights the demand for more efficient ARM-based CPU tailored for cloud workloads. tasks, as they struggled with implementing use to design chips. RISC-V defines the basic
AI chips to make AI scalable and accessible. These chips will be used to power Azure data the vital algorithm required to train neural functions, known as the instruction set, that a
NVIDIA responded with the H100 chip, opti- centers for their AI-hungry customers. networks, known as backpropagation. chip can perform to manipulate the values of
mized for generative AI and named after pio- transistors—for adding numbers, for example.
Researchers are also advancing AI chip A team at Stanford has overcome this chal-
neer Grace Hopper. With substantially faster Around 3,100 members, including compa-
architecture in ways that could shape the lenge by successfully training AI on an op-
processing than previous chips, the H100 is nies and universities worldwide, collaborate
next generation. For example, one computer tical chip, a first in the field. Their photonic
crucial for companies seeking to develop AI through the nonprofit RISC-V International to
scientist developed an in-memory computing chip allows light signals to pass in both di-
services. In November 2023, NVIDIA escalated develop these specifications. Intel announced
chip that processes and stores data directly rections through an optical neural network,
its AI computing power further with the NVIDIA a $1 billion fund to support companies build-
within each transistor, taking inspiration and it has built-in light detectors to measure
HGXTM H200, building on the HopperTM archi- ing RISC-V chips, and Google wants RISC-V to
from the human brain’s ability to simultane- the intensity of light passing through each
tecture. As the first GPU with HBM3e memory, become a “tier-1” Android architecture.
ously process signals and store information. component. This enables the chip to optical-
the H200 enables faster processing essential
This chip delivers twice the power efficiency ly implement backpropagation. As a result, Worldwide, events like the global chip short-
for generative AI and large language models,
of alternatives. the researchers were able to train a simple age and Arm’s corporate instability are fueling
while boosting scientific computing. Com-
neural network to label data points with up interest in RISC-V. In China, an added urgen-
pared to the A100, it delivers double the mem- Photonic Chips to 98% accuracy. While there is still room for cy is driving RISC-V’s adoption. The country
ory capacity and 2.4 times more bandwidth. In
With the continued growth of AI models, improvement, this milestone demonstrates wants to reduce reliance on foreign intellec-
a parallel development, Amazon Web Services
energy consumption also escalates. This is the potential of photonic processors to in- tual property and achieve self-sufficiency in
(AWS) announced Trainium2, engineered spe-
where photonic AI chips, which operate us- crease the energy efficiency of AI. chip design, particularly in light of US trade
cifically for training AI models. Moreover, AWS

TECH COMPUTING
CHIPS
restrictions on advanced integrated circuit transistors. As per-transistor costs increase Custom AI Chips renowned for power efficiency, is staging a
technologies. Consequently, many Chinese with each new generation of chip manufac- Instead of relying on traditional chip suppli- takeover. ARM already dominates mobile.
companies that design computer chips but turing technology (contrary to Moore’s law), ers like Intel, major tech companies like Meta, Now major players are bringing ARM to PCs,
don’t make them are considering a switch to NVIDIA chief scientist Bill Dally emphasizes Google, and Microsoft are developing their challenging the x86 foothold. NVIDIA and
RISC-V, which is becoming an increasingly the need for more intelligent design instead own AI chips and hardware to improve the AMD are making strategic moves by adopting
attractive option in the region. In late 2023, of relying on cheaper transistors. efficiency, cost, and performance of running ARM’s technology. NVIDIA is venturing into
the House Select Committee on the Chinese AI models. Meta’s AI chip is currently focused the central processing unit (CPU) arena for
Communist Party suggested the formation Besides NVIDIA, other major players in the
on inference, not training; the project signals personal computers with ARM-based designs.
of an interagency governmental committee industry are also recognizing the benefits of
the company’s ambition to catch up to rivals These CPUs, compatible with Microsoft Corp.’s
to assess the potential risks associated with integrating AI into their chip design pro-
in custom AI hardware after previously relying Windows operating system, are anticipated to
RISC-V. This recommendation stems from cesses. For instance, Synopsys and Cadence
on off-the-shelf CPUs, GPUs, and costly data be available as early as 2025. Similarly, AMD
concerns that the open-source, easily ac- Design Systems are in a race to provide
center redesigns. Microsoft is also reported- is also reported to be developing ARM-based
cessible nature of RISC-V might weaken US AI-infused software that companies can
ly developing its own AI chips to train large CPUs for Windows PCs, marking a significant
export control efforts. use to create their own optimized chips. The
language models, reducing reliance on costly diversification from their traditional prod-
integration of AI will help engineers boost
NVIDIA GPUs. Microsoft aims to cut costs with uct offerings. Microsoft announced plans in
AI-Driven Chip Design the proportion of defect-free chips coming
these in-house chips; they may be available November 2023 to roll out its own ARM-based
off the production line. Synopsys CEO Aart
Major tech companies like NVIDIA are using internally and for OpenAI next year, with CPU, expected to happen sometime in 2024.
de Geus said the company intends to invest
AI to improve AI chip design. Designing chips future generations planned. The chips won’t The entry of NVIDIA and AMD into the ARM-
more in AI tools, especially as the semicon-
involves placing billions of transistors, and directly replace NVIDIA but could lower Micro- based PC market poses a new challenge to
ductor industry transitions to chiplets—mul-
their placement has an enormous impact on soft’s AI costs as the company expands AI in Intel and Qualcomm. Intel, in particular, faces
tiple chips stacked and integrated together
cost, speed, and power efficiency. In March Bing, Office, GitHub, and more. increased competition at a time when it is
to create larger, more complex chips. With
2023, NVIDIA released a paper building on striving to reclaim its market share and tech-
major players ramping up AI adoption, the ARM-based PC Chips
existing research from Alphabet, showing nological edge. With AMD and NVIDIA joining
semiconductor industry is poised to benefit
that a combination of AI techniques can find For decades, the personal computing mar- the ranks of Apple and potentially Microsoft in
from smarter, more automated design.
more optimal ways to place large groups of ket has run on x86 chips from the likes of adopting ARM’s architecture, the pressure is
Intel and Qualcomm. But ARM architecture, mounting on Intel to innovate and compete.

TECH COMPUTING
CHIPS
Manufacturing Intelligence AI-specific computing resources. This shift
To tap into AI’s potential, leading companies signifies a pivotal moment in the evolution
like Foxconn and NVIDIA are collaborating of data centers, aligning them more closely
to build a new generation of data centers with the rapidly advancing realm of artificial
purpose-built for AI workloads. Dubbed “AI intelligence.
factories”, these state-of-the-art data centers
packed with NVIDIA’s latest chips, enterprise
software, and other hardware will fuel a wave
of AI innovation. Foxconn plans to leverage
them to digitize inspections, develop smart-
er robotics and vehicles, power generative
AI applications, and more. The scale of data
and model training needed for industrial AI
adoption requires specialized infrastructure.
While AI chips continue advancing, massive
computational horsepower is still essen-
tial. Dedicated AI data centers like Foxconn
and NVIDIA’s can crunch vast datasets into
valuable AI assets far faster than typical
facilities. Looking ahead, we can anticipate a
trend where more data centers will tailor their
services to accommodate these demanding
AI workloads. Such specialized data centers
could emerge as a distinctive offering in
the market, characterized by their focus on AI factories will offer the vast computational power and customized infrastructure essential for enabling
widespread AI adoption.

TECH COMPUTING
PERSONAL
COMPUTING

TECH COMPUTING
PERSONAL COMPUTING
Everywhere Input tors. Each of these actuators is a miniature hydrogel and graphene nanosheets between
Researchers at the University of Michigan plastic pouch shaped like an accordion that layers of silk fabric to sense touch in real
have developed a system that can turn expands to create patterns when electrified. time. The fabric has been demonstrated to
everyday surfaces into high-accuracy input The innovation is precise enough to gener- control a computer game and sketch on a
devices. Named SAWsense after the “surface ate scrolling text and even imitate physical computer. The fabric innovations could help
acoustic waves” it utilizes, the system em- sensation, providing a rare haptic touch to drive the widespread adoption of e-textiles
ploys acoustic sensors to transform everyday the digital world. and open new opportunities for wearables
objects like couches, tables, and sleeves that and smart devices. Scientists also developed
Smart Textiles the first smart fabric that changes both col-
respond to commands in the form of taps,
scratches, and swipes. Imagine sitting on An international research team led by the or and shape in response to temperature and
your living room couch, watching a movie University of Cambridge has developed electricity. Made of polymer nano-fibers from
on your smart TV. Instead of reaching for a next-generation smart textiles that are low- recycled plastic, this cost-effective material
remote control, you merely tap twice on the cost, sustainable, and produced using stan- has extensive potential uses. It represents
armrest of your couch, and the movie paus- dard industrial looms. Unlike previous smart a milestone in creating practical, affordable
es. The system works on materials like wood, fabrics, these textiles can withstand bend- smart textiles that can transform our every-
metal, and fabric with 97% accuracy. These ing and folding thanks to a process that day environments.
new forms of interaction with computers, coats conductive fibers with stretchable ma-
terials. The 46-inch woven prototype seam- Human-Centric Pervasive Computing
through more integrated and personalized
interfaces, signal the emergence of ubiqui- lessly integrates flexible embedded displays. Pervasive computing, also known as ubiq-
tous and ambient computing. Expanding this The researchers envision the use of these uitous computing, embeds computation-
concept further, engineers from the University flexible, eco-friendly smart textiles in various al capabilities into ordinary objects and
of Colorado Boulder envision a future with dy- applications such as buildings, car interi- environments so that computing can
Pervasive computing will enable people to interact
namic 3D interfaces. Imagine an iPad with a ors, and clothing. Separately, researchers become an invisible and seamless part of with computers without screens.
surface that enables you to draw 3D designs; developed a touch-responsive fabric arm- everyday life. It’s even being integrated onto
the shape-shifting display uses a grid of band that can act as a flexible keyboard and skin—researchers at Cornell University have
soft robotic “muscles,” called HASEL actua- wearable sketchpad. It uses clear conductive developed technologies that allow users to

TECH COMPUTING
PERSONAL COMPUTING
easily construct and use customized on-skin ing gaze alone. The researchers have found
devices for sensing and display. One device, that the tongue-gaze method can be used as
called SkinPaper, uses silicone-treated washi a nonintrusive point-and-click interface.
paper that conforms to the body to enable
simple on-skin interactions; it could eventu- Wearable AI
ally enable a range of promising applications, AI is changing human-computer interaction,
from health monitoring and personal safety shifting us away from screens, trackpads,
to assistive technologies for the disabled. and keyboards towards more intuitive,
Another team from Seoul National University voice-based interfaces. This is giving rise to
and Stanford University developed a spray- a new class of lightweight, wearable gadgets
on smart skin that uses AI to recognize hand and screenless computers that integrate
gestures and typing. This spray-on mesh is seamlessly into daily life. By reducing screen
made of nanowires embedded in a polyure- fatigue and intrusive features, these de-
thane coating, and is applied directly to the vices foster a more natural, human-centric
skin, conforming to its wrinkles and folds. approach to technology. A prime example
This smart skin allows for seamless gesture is the newly-launched Humane AI Pin, an
recognition without cameras, gloves, or virtu- OpenAI-powered wearable priced at $699,
al reality systems; it could enable new ways plus a $24 monthly subscription. Forgoing
for people to communicate with each other traditional app interfaces, this 34-gram
and control devices. device focuses solely on voice interactions.
Users access information and perform tasks
Microsoft researchers are also experimenting
by speaking to the Pin’s built-in microphone.
with new ways for people to communicate
By stripping down the technological inter-
with each other and control devices using our
face, Humane aims to create a streamlined,
tongues. By combining tongue gestures with
human-like experience. Another device is the As AI enables more natural computer interaction, there are increasing use cases for compact, perhaps
gaze, selections occurred faster than just us-
Rewind AI Pendant which captures real-world screenless wearables.

TECH COMPUTING
PERSONAL COMPUTING
conversations, storing encrypted transcripts reflected in a leaked video showing Microsoft

and audio locally on the user’s phone. Be- exploring an optimized “Windows handheld
yond recording, Rewind’s platform searches mode” for gaming devices like the Steam
transcripts, generates meeting summaries Deck. The video shows a prototype with a
and analyzes speech patterns. Essentially, the custom game launcher, controller-friendly
Pendant serves as a personalized assistant keyboard, and floating taskbar designed for
harnessing environmental information to touchscreens. If developed further, this could
support the user. Both the Humane Pin and enable handheld PCs to run Windows and
Rewind Pendant epitomize the shift towards games from multiple stores.
invisible, assistive technology that facilitates
Going in the opposite direction, a developer
life’s tasks and interactions much like a help-
separately created a way to use Steam Deck
ful human companion would. This evolution
controls in Windows, suggesting the gam-
in form and function represents a paradigm
ing-centric design could suit more general
shift, integrating technology more seamlessly
purposes. Though preliminary, these signs
while making it feel more intuitive and hu-
indicate the promise of handheld PCs for
man-centric.
both gaming and productivity. They could
The Convergence of Gaming Devices for serve enterprise and business users as
Productivity ultralight yet high-performance secondary
The portable PC market is gaining momen- machines or bring-your-own-device options.
tum, fueled in part by interest in dedicated Their versatility, comfort with both touch
gaming devices. While many portable PCs and keyboard input, and suitability for en-
were initially targeted at gamers seeking pow- tertainment and productivity make them an
er and performance on the go, they show po- intriguing form factor for multiple use cases.
tential for other applications. This potential is
Handheld gaming devices pack impressive computing power that could be utilized for AI-assisted
productivity tools.

TECH COMPUTING
SCENARIOS
SCENARIO YEAR 2027
Silent Signals
A dense forest in a hostile territory: Night has fallen, and visibility is limited. A special forces team is tasked with
rescuing hostages from a heavily guarded compound. Their mission depends on stealth and silent communica-
tion, which is why they’re equipped with the latest spray-on smart skin technology.
The team gathers at a concealed location near the target and applies the smart skin mesh to each team member’s
hands. They will use hand gestures to communicate with each other and the remote tactical operations center.
They move silently toward the compound. The team leader raises his hand in the “hold” signal, and the team
freezes. Using more hand gestures, he conveys there are enemy guards nearby. That gesture data also makes the
tactical operations center immediately aware of the team’s status—without any verbal communication or inter-
ceptable radio communications that would give away their location.
The team leader signals that he needs feedback from the overhead drone to check movement out of his line of
sight. He receives silent haptic feedback in his gloves; the staccato pulse vibrations confirm that there is move-
ment, and the opposing forces know the soldiers are there. He signals to his team to execute plan B. The element
of surprise is lost but the technological advantage remains.
The primary benefit of this technology lies in enabling communication where radio transmissions and verbal
commands might otherwise betray position. These silent gestures serve not only for on-the-ground communica-
tion between team members but also facilitate remote interaction with tactical operations, providing a discreet
and untraceable channel for vital information exchange.

TECH COMPUTING
PERSONAL COMPUTING
Right to Repair However, challenges linger regarding adher- barely one frame per second. Because adding
The Right to Repair movement has rapidly ence to the spirit of the laws. For example, more AirJets doesn’t make the device thicker
gained momentum across the United States, Apple’s recent iPhone 15 contains proprietary or noisier, in the future PCs equipped with
with several states passing laws to empower software locks that inhibit non-Apple re- the technology could be quieter, thinner and
consumers and independent repair shops placements, triggering warning messages have bigger batteries. The company sees po-
in the face of repair restrictions imposed by or disabled features. Repair authority iFixit. tential for AirJet in gaming smartphones, 4K
manufacturers. This addresses growing con- com has highlighted how these exclusive webcams, stick PCs, storage devices, door-
cerns that companies severely limit access to locks undermine Right to Repair progress bell cameras, and LED light bulbs.
replacement parts, tools, and service informa- by limiting choice and affordability around
genuine repairs. LLMS as Operating Systems
tion for items like electronics and machinery,
forcing reliance on often costlier authorized In November 2023, AI luminary Andrej Karp-
Maximum Cooling to Minimize PC Size athy introduced a groundbreaking concept
service providers. California is the latest state
to enact Right to Repair legislation, follow- There are traditionally two cooling methods that could redefine our interaction with com-
ing New York, Colorado and Minnesota over for PCs: active cooling with fans and pas- puters: an operating system fundamentally
the last year. The bill guarantees consumer sive cooling without fans. A startup called powered by a LLM. The LLM would not just be
access to the components, manuals and Frore Systems has developed a novel third an add-on feature; the LLM would function
diagnostic software needed to service and method: an innovative solid-state device as the core kernel of the OS. Routine tasks
repair electronic products. Significantly, Apple called AirJet that provides active cooling in could be executed with an unprecedented
expressed support for the law despite past a quieter and more compact form factor. level of sophistication, automating opera-
lobbying efforts against repair reforms. This AirJet’s vibrating membranes in the chip tions that once required manual interven-
shift came amidst criticism of Apple for uti- create suction and push high-velocity air tion. The user interface in this envisioned
lizing software locks that prevent functioning to cool the copper heat spreader below the OS departs from traditional graphical user
The right to repair advocates for allowing custom-
hardware from operating fully unless repaired chip. Frore Systems found PCs equipped with interfaces (GUIs) and command-line interac- ers and independent shops to fix their own devices
by Apple technicians using strictly Apple AirJet performed better than those without tions. It embraces a more intuitive, natural independently of the original manufacturer.
components. while running intensive graphics stress language–based interface. Users can interact
tests: 9-11 frames per second compared with with their computers through conversa-

TECH COMPUTING
PERSONAL COMPUTING
tional commands, inquiries, or requests for Intel’s move into the automotive sector is These advancements signal a paradigm
specific tasks. The LLM, understanding these marked by the introduction of the “first-gen- shift in vehicle interfaces, aligning them
requests, would perform a series of actions to eration AI-enhanced software-defined more closely with digital lifestyles. As people
accomplish the desired outcomes. This con- vehicle system-on-chip.” This development grow accustomed to constant access to
cept has moved beyond theory into practical is part of its broader strategy to integrate AI entertainment and information, car manu-
application, as demonstrated by Jesse Lyu, across various platforms, emphasizing the facturers are acknowledging the transfor-
CEO and founder of Rabbit. Lyu launched the importance of personal computing devic- mation of cars into multifunctional personal
R1, a compact device about half the size of es, including cars, as secure environments devices. These vehicles are now platforms for
an iPhone, running on Rabbit OS—an oper- for AI processing compared to cloud-based productivity, social connectivity, and leisure,
ating system grounded in a LLM. Rabbit OS solutions. Volkswagen is another example, marking a pivotal evolution in the automo-
functions as a universal app controller, akin showcasing its integration of the AI-based tive industry and fundamentally changing
to systems like Alexa or Google Assistant, ChatGPT in its IDA voice assistant in vehi- how we interact with our vehicles.
yet it offers a unique twist. It simplifies user cles. Volkswagen plans to standardize this
interaction by removing the need to navigate feature in many of its production vehicles
through multiple apps or perform repetitive in 2024, being the first volume manufac-
logins. Instead, users can directly communi- turer to do so. BMW is also reimagining the
cate their needs to the device, and R1, under- in-car experience. The company is enhancing
standing these natural language requests, its vehicles with streaming video, gaming
efficiently executes the desired tasks. options, and augmented reality, powered by
AI-driven voice assistants, using Amazon’s
Personal Computers on Wheels Alexa technology as a base. This assistant is
Major automakers are transforming their designed to interact in a more human-like,
Since AI enables natural language input, we can
cars into personal computers on wheels. Intel conversational manner, offering both infor- now communicate more effectively with computers
recently introduced a new AI-enhanced sys- mation about vehicle functions and control in vehicles, making personal computing accessible
tem-on-a-chip specifically for cars, with Zeekr over some of these functions. wherever we choose, including in our cars.
being the first to implement this technology.

TECH COMPUTING
BIOLOGICAL
COMPUTING

TECH COMPUTING
BIOLOGICAL COMPUTING
Neuromorphic Computing While neuromorphic computers have not
Researchers are experimenting with new yet replaced conventional hardware, re-
architectures to make computers faster and cent research shows promise. For instance,
more energy efficient. One such approach is researchers at Sandia National Laboratories
neuromorphic computing, which is inspired have demonstrated that approximation algo-
by the most energy-efficient computer on rithms can be implemented on neuromor-
earth: our human brains. Where conventional phic hardware to efficiently solve complex
computers must run commands sequentially, optimization problems. Separately, a joint
laboriously moving data back and forth be- team from Purdue, USCD, and ESPCI is work-
tween the memory and processor, neuromor- ing on research that underscores the need
phic chips simultaneously store and process for materials vastly different from silicon,
information. Intel’s neuromorphic chips have which can naturally replicate synapses and
already achieved up to 1,000 times higher en- neurons. The team’s breakthrough involves
ergy efficiency compared to general-purpose using vanadium dioxide, a material exhibit-
chips and excel at detecting sensory input ing both synaptic and neuristor capabilities.
like gestures, sounds, and even smells. These They’ve discovered a way to visually monitor
chips have enabled a variety of systems, changes within this material, revealing that
from artificial skin that can sense touch to memory accumulates across the entire sam-
an “electronic nose” capable of identifying ple. This insight opens up new possibilities
scents from explosives. Other large-scale on how and where to control this property,
neuromorphic architecture projects include potentially enhancing the synaptic behavior
IBM’s TrueNorth, SpiNNaker, BrainScaleS, and of neuromorphic materials.
Tianjic.
Neuromorphic computing mimics the neural structure and processing method of the human brain to cre-
ate more efficient computer systems.

TECH COMPUTING
Organoid Intelligence Researchers at Johns Hopkins University Furthermore, running AI on organoids would hardware to address the energy and hard-
recently outlined a vision for the future of be more energy efficient. As AI systems like ware limitations faced by increasingly com-
The key distinction biocomputers, powered by human brain self-driving cars become more complex, they plex AI systems. It should be noted that the
between biocomputers and cells, in a paper published in the journal will require massive amounts of computing Brainoware research has been published on
Frontiers in Science. Led by Thomas Hartung, power and energy; for instance, self-driving the preprint server bioRxiv, though not yet in a
neuromorphic computing
the team outlined a roadmap for “organoid cars are estimated to use up to 20% more peer-reviewed journal.
resides in the systems and intelligence,” aiming to bring biological energy than conventional cars. In the next
BCI + Robots
elements they each seek computing to life using 3D cultures of hu- decade, computers utilizing biological hard-
man brain cells. These tiny 3D organoids, no ware could begin to address the increasingly MIT Media lab and Boston Dynamics are col-
to replicate and harness. larger than the point of a pen, are equipped unsustainable energy consumption de- laborating to build the first brain-controlled
Neuromorphic computing with neurons and circuitry capable of sup- mands. robot. The project, called Ddog, combines
porting fundamental functions such as Boston Dynamics’ Spot robot with an EEG
aims to mirror its efficiency learning and memory. Organoid intelligence Living AIs Solve Equations brain-computer interface system called At-
in the design of computing holds significant potential for augmenting Indiana University researchers have crafted tentivU that uses wireless glasses to measure
computing capabilities while concurrently an organoid with lab-grown human brain brain activity and eye movements. These sig-
systems while biocomputing
addressing the escalating energy consump- cell clusters capable of solving elementary nals are then interpreted to control the Spot
looks to utilize the inherent tion demands driven by advancements in math tasks. Named Brainoware, this sys- robot in real time. Ddog builds on an existing
capabilities of biological artificial intelligence and supercomputing. tem harnesses living brain tissue for com- app called Brain Switch, which allows people
Despite traditional computers’ ability to pro- putations, potentially lowering the energy with limited mobility to communicate nonver-
materials or systems for cess calculations at speeds far surpassing demands of sophisticated AI platforms. In bally with the help of caregivers; it’s complete-
information processing. human capabilities, human brains demon- initial tests, the brain organoids could solve ly wireless and autonomous, running on two
strate superior performance in complex a complex math problem called the Hénon iPhones without the need for electrodes or
decision-making tasks, such as differenti- map, demonstrating their ability to perform heavy computing equipment. Ddog conveys
ating between a dog and a cat. Running AI computations. While the organoids are the promise of combining neurotechnology
on organoids could be the key to achieving limited in size due to a lack of blood vessels, and robotics to empower users and assist
human-like complex decision-making. the research shows promise for using living them in meaningful ways, such as by deliver-

TECH COMPUTING
ing groceries or other objects, moving furni- extracted from seaweed. These gels possess leads to scarring around the implant. The Imitating Human Perception: Advancing
Computer Vision
ture, or retrieving items using Spot’s robotic the same pliability and responsiveness as researchers’ biomimetic approach, allowing
arm. Because the system is highly mobile and the brain itself. Anchored to the organ’s the brain’s own movements to shape the im- Humans are good at predicting how objects
practical for in-home use, it has significant movements rather than resisting them, plant, holds promise for crafting neural in- and people will move. When we pass a person
applications for less mobile populations, in- hydrogel electrodes could foster connections terfaces that last as long as they are needed. on the sidewalk, we have a good model of their
cluding those with disabilities and the elderly. that stand the test of time. The researchers trajectory; when we are stopped at a red light
As populations continue to age, human work- note that soft, biologically based electrodes Nanowire Networks Emulate Our Memories at an intersection, we can reasonably predict
ers may not be able to provide assistance to may permit more natural cell contact and Researchers at the University of Sydney built which oncoming cars will turn. This is because
all those who need it. Systems like Ddog show integration than their stiff, metallic counter- nanowire networks that physically mimic we exhibit “perceptual straightness”—the
how robots can help fill in the gaps, providing parts. the structure of the human brain. These ability to perceive dynamic visual information
autonomy and a better quality of life for users. networks—composed of mesh silver wires— and transform it into a stable mental repre-
Conventional implants have another limita- sentation. Unlike humans, computer vision
exhibited both short-term and long-term
Soft Implantables tion: they are temporary. As the soft brain models typically lack this ability, which is a
memory, which suggests that brain-like
moves, it repeatedly collides with rigid elec- problem if we want to interact with mobile
Conventional brain implants are rigid, mak- learning and memory could potentially be
trodes and gets damaged. In response, scar robots or autonomous vehicles. But that could
ing them ill-suited for the soft tissues of replicated in non-biological systems. When
tissue builds up around the implant, cutting change, after MIT researchers identified a
the brain. To address this, engineers at Rice information in the nanowire network is re-
it off from surrounding neurons. Within a few property that helps computer vision models
University developed an alternative: ultraflex- peatedly reinforced, it becomes consolidated
years, this scarring isolates the device to the learn to represent the visual world in a more
ible nanoelectrodes that can achieve connec- into long-term memory, similar to how our
point that it must be replaced. Researchers stable, predictable way. The researchers found
tions with minimal harm. These tiny, flexible brains convert short-term memories into
at Linköping University developed a solution: that training computer vision models using
implants deliver targeted electrical pulses long-term memories. This research expands
Rather than building an electrode outside adversarial training, which makes them less
that closely match natural neural signaling. on previous work showing nanotechnology
the brain and forcing it in, they designed sensitive to small errors in images, improves
With their precision and biocompatibility, can be used to build brain-inspired devices
an injectable gel. Once inside the brain, the their perceptual straightness. They also found
the flexible nanoelectrodes could enable new with neural network-like circuits and syn-
gel solidifies into a conductive, yet pliable, that the task a model is trained on affects its
therapies like sensory or motor prosthetics. apse-like signaling; the results suggest the
electrode. Because this electrode moves perceptual straightness: It’s more effective
Separately, Harvard researchers are develop- essence of human-level intelligence could
with the brain, it avoids the damage that to train models on abstract tasks like image
ing a soft electrode using natural hydrogels arise from physical structures.

TECH COMPUTING
classification than fine-grained tasks like technique that controls the activity of cells uses DNA molecules and biological enzymes
pixel-wise classification. Understanding with light akin to the shutter mechanism of to perform logic gate operations, the build-
perceptual straightness in computer vision a camera, we managed to capture ‘images’ ing blocks of all computer programs. Unlike
could help make robot/human interaction by imprinting light signals onto the DNA live cell biocomputing, Trumpet is nonliv-
safer since better computer vision would help ‘film.’” BacCam can capture and store mul- ing, so it avoids evolutionary constraints
robots better predict trajectories of people tiple images simultaneously using different on live cells and signal leakage issues. The
and vehicles. light colors, and the images were marked researchers demonstrated they can use
with barcoding for labeling purposes. Ma- Trumpet to build all universal Boolean logic
Storing Images in DNA With Biological chine learning algorithms organized, sorted, gates (e.g., “and,” “or”) and also built a web-
Camera
and reconstructed the images, constituting based platform for designing Trumpet gates.
Researchers are exploring DNA computing as a “biological camera” that mirrors a digital The lead author of the study and Ph.D. can-
an alternative storage medium to resource-in- camera’s data capture, storage, and retrieval didate Judee Sharon is exploring the use of
tensive data centers, due to DNA’s immense capabilities. Importantly, compared to prior the Trumpet platform to develop biomedical
storage capacity and long-term stability. How- DNA storage methods, the team’s innovative applications for early cancer diagnosis. An-
ever, current DNA storage research focuses system is easily reproducible and scalable. other promising area is “theranostics”—the
on synthesizing DNA strands outside of cells, fusion of diagnostics and therapeutics—and
an expensive, complex, error-prone process. DNA-Based Molecular Computing Trumpet could be used to detect conditions
To overcome this challenge, researchers at Traditional computer hardware is limited in like low insulin levels. By harnessing the
the National University of Singapore turned to its ability to interface with living organs, and computational power of biology, Trumpet
live cells containing DNA that act as a natural computerized implants require a constant could transform how diseases are diagnosed
“data bank.” The system—called BacCam—em- supply of electricity and cause damage to and treated in the coming decades.
ulates a digital camera’s functions using bio- soft tissue. Researchers at the University of
DNA-based molecular computing uses the unique
logical components. “Imagine the DNA within Minnesota have developed a biocomputing properties of DNA molecules to perform compu-
a cell as an undeveloped photographic film,” platform to overcome both of these chal- tations, offering a potential for massively parallel
explained associate professor Chueh Loo Poh, lenges. The Transcriptional RNA Universal processing and storage capabilities.
who led the research. “Using optogenetics—a Multi-Purpose GatE PlaTform, or “Trumpet,”

TECH COMPUTING
Image Reconstruction tion and retrieval, even among highly sim-
Recent advancements are allowing us to ilar images. Another exciting development
glimpse inside the human mind, offering is Mind-Video, which reconstructs human
a way to reconstruct thoughts and images. vision in video form from continuous fMRI
Although still in its early stages, this tech- data. By learning from the brain’s spatial and
nology shows promising potential. Consider temporal information, Mind-Video can create
the two images: the first, known as the “seen high-quality videos at varying frame rates.
image,” is a picture of what a human saw Together, these innovations are breaking
with their eyes; the second, called the “recon- new ground in understanding human cog-
struction,” is what a machine learning model nition and unlocking our ability to visualize
thinks the person saw, based only on a brain the mind’s content. They mark an exciting
scan. State-of-the-art brain image reconstruc- step toward a future where thoughts might
tion techniques made these results possible. be visually represented and no longer con-
fined within our skulls.
In the rapidly growing field of fMRI recon- The seen image is what is physically presented to a person, while the reconstruction is the image generat-
struction, new projects aim to improve ed by AI from analyzing the person’s brain FMRI scan.
performance, interpretability, and versatil-
ity. Diffusion-based methods have already
created images from pure noise, with breath-
taking results seen in projects like MindEye,
designed to retrieve and reconstruct viewed
images from brain activity. It can map brain
activity to high-dimensional spaces, allow-
ing image reconstruction using generative
models. Compared to other methods, MindEye
achieves top performance in both reconstruc-

TECH COMPUTING
SCENARIOS
SCENARIO YEAR 2039
The Digital DNA Walkers

The world is facing an unprecedented explosion of data. Conventional storage methods are energy intensive and
expensive, leading companies to turn to an unconventional solution: human beings as walking, living data stor-
age devices. A tech startup named GeneBank offers individuals a unique opportunity to monetize their DNA. By
becoming a “Data Carrier,” they can lease space within their DNA to corporations, research institutions, or private
clients. The procedure is simple, painless, and perfectly safe, according to GeneBank’s marketing materials.
Given the value of the data stored within human carriers, insurance companies start offering specialized DNA
data insurance as part of their health insurance plans. These policies cover potential data loss, corruption, or
unauthorized access. Data Carriers are required to undergo regular check-ups to ensure the integrity of the infor-
mation they carry, and premiums are tied to the volume and sensitivity of the data. This is an ideal side hustle
for anyone engaged in the gig economy.

TECH COMPUTING
SCENARIOS
SCENARIO YEAR 2039
AI + OI + LOE
Organoid intelligence has become the forefront of computational evolution, merging human-like decision-mak-
ing capabilities with the speed of traditional computers. However, the ethical dilemma around these brain
organoids sparked global debate and protests, leading to a radical decision by a pioneering company called
NeurAI.
Facing mounting pressure from ethical watchdogs, human rights activists, and protesters equating organ-
oid-powered AI with slavery, NeurAI sought an innovative solution: relocating manufacturing and computation
to outer space, outside any specific country’s jurisdiction—and legal or ethical boundaries.
Through the move to space, NeurAI capitalizes on the ease of creating organoids in microgravity—in micrograv-
ity they form more uniform structures. It lets customers access the organoid powered AI through NeurAI’s cloud
platform, The Celestial Mind. This network becomes globally accessible, providing unparalleled computational
power for applications ranging from scientific research to business analytics.

TECH COMPUTING
ADVANCED
LARGE SCALE
COMPUTING

TECH COMPUTING
ADVANCED LARGE SCALE COMPUTING

Exascale Supercomputing ers have already analyzed genetic mutations with various providers such as AWS, Google
Exascale computers are digital computers of SARS-CoV-2, the virus causing COVID—re- Cloud, and Azure while ensuring a consis-
that are much more powerful than today’s ducing the calculation time from a week to tent user experience; it means that devel-
supercomputers but different from quantum a day—to comprehend how these genetic opers don’t need to repeatedly configure a
computers. While quantum computers use variations impact the virus’ infectiousness. new app with security features and various
unique quantum properties to perform com- operating systems for every cloud platform
Supercloud their organization employs. Supercloud also
putations, exascale computers use the same
transistor-based architecture as today’s Cloud computing holds value in part be- implies that end users can transfer data and
most powerful computers, just taken to the cause of its user-friendly nature—it provides applications smoothly across clouds and
extreme. In 2022, the world’s first exascale an abstraction layer over storage, process- data centers without hindrance. Companies
computer, known as Frontier, came online at ing, and applications, eliminating the need like Snowflake are already offering data ser-
the Oak Ridge National Laboratory. Frontier for users to handle hardware and software vices that connect to major hyperscale cloud
can perform calculations seven times faster maintenance. However, in an era where providers, but the concept of the supercloud
and hold four times more data in memory businesses manage multiple cloud environ- is still far from mainstream. Hurdles remain,
than previous supercomputers. Two more ments, there’s a reemergent need for another such as the dissolution of closed ecosys-
exascale computers, El Capitan and Aurora, abstraction layer to simplify management. tems and issues surrounding data gravity,
are expected soon. All three are projects of Enter the supercloud. First coined in a 2017 security, backup, and monitoring.
the US Department of Energy and its National study by Cornell University, the term refers
to an added abstraction layer that oper- Serverless Cloud
Nuclear Security Administration to run the
calculations that help maintain the nuclear ates independently of the underlying cloud Serverless cloud computing is a transforma-
weapons stockpile. The supercomputers also platforms. This layer allows various cloud tional approach to cloud services. The term
exist to solve intractable problems in science. environments to interact and function as is often misunderstood—serverless com-
Supercloud is a cloud architecture that integrates
For instance, exascale computers could refine a cohesive whole, facilitating the effortless puting still relies on servers. However, the services, data, and applications across multiple
hurricane predictions in meteorology or simu- movement of software, applications, and cloud provider takes on the responsibility of clouds for greater flexibility, scalability, and in-
late molecular structures for the pharmaceu- data across different cloud ecosystems. It managing and operating those servers. Tra- teroperability.
tical industry. In medicine, exascale comput- lets companies maintain service contracts ditionally, cloud computing requires renting

TECH COMPUTING
virtual machines (VMs) from a provider; the cloud provider greatly simplify usage while of meeting the high energy demands of AI vision that isn’t held back by the slow speeds
user must handle security, failure recov- allowing for flexible scaling. and achieving climate goals. Microsoft’s of computer memory, with applications in un-
ery, and overload prevention for those VMs. exploration of this avenue, including seeking manned systems (like drones or autonomous
Serverless computing revolutionizes this Alternative Energy for Data Center expertise in SMR rollout, reflects a broader robots), autonomous driving, and ultrafast
model by shifting all server management The monumental computational require- industry trend. science.
duties to the cloud provider. This concept is ments of advancing AI could catalyze a nu-
exemplified by Amazon Web Services’ (AWS) clear power renaissance. A job posting from Photonic Computing Architecture Photonic Cellular Automata
recent serverless innovations. For instance, Microsoft hints that the company is explor- Machine vision allows computers to inter- Caltech researchers have leveraged optical
AWS introduced Amazon Aurora Limitless ing using small modular nuclear reactors pret images similar to how the human eye hardware to create cellular automata, com-
Database, a part of Amazon Aurora now in (SMRs) to meet its AI and cloud computing and brain “sees,” but even faster and more puter models consisting of cells that can
preview. This service scales to handle millions needs. SMRs promise cheaper, faster mod- accurately. Researchers at Tsinghua Univer- live, die, reproduce, and evolve. From these
of transactions per second and manages vast ular construction compared to traditional sity are proposing a photonic computing simple rules emerge complex behaviors that
data volumes. It functions by automatically nuclear plants, which are often over-bud- architecture to enhance this capability. can be used to perform computing tasks. For
distributing data and queries across multiple get and delayed. Microsoft’s approach was Current photonic computing is limited by instance, cellular automata can be used to
serverless Aurora instances, relieving cus- hinted at further in the fact that they already slow memory access. The researchers’ new generate random numbers, conduct physics
tomers from managing a complex database have a deal to buy Clean Energy Credits from architecture combines parallel spatial com- simulations, and do cryptography. Cellular
system. Other serverless innovations from Ontario Power Generation, which is on track puting (simultaneous tasks) and temporal automata are ideal for photonic technologies
AWS include Amazon ElastiCache Serverless, to be the first utility to deploy an SMR in computing (fast sequential tasks) in a “3D because information processing happens
which enables creating highly available data North America. Companies like Rolls-Royce, spatiotemporal plane.” They’ve also devel- locally (cells only interact with immediate
caches without manual setup. Additionally, Last Energy, NuScale, Oklo, and TerraPower oped a new training system to optimize both neighbors), eliminating much of the hardware
Amazon Redshift Serverless proactively ad- (backed by Bill Gates) are also developing the physical system and the network model. that makes photonic computing difficult.
justs resources based on workload patterns, various SMR models. Similarly, Kärnfull Next In doing so, they’ve been able to speed video Furthermore, the high bandwidth of photonic
no manual tuning needed. Microsoft, IBM, and in Sweden plans to use SMRs to power data processing 40 times with 35 times fewer computing allows cellular automata imple-
Cloud Flare also have solutions in this space. centers. The pivot towards nuclear ener- parameters than traditional systems. The mented with light to run extremely fast, up to
These innovations in moving the responsibili- gy, particularly next-generation SMRs, is a researchers believe their new system could three orders of magnitude faster than digital
ty of server management from the user to the strategic response to the dual challenges be the first step toward ultrafast machine computers. In Caltech’s photonic computing

TECH COMPUTING
device, the cellular automata cells are puls- device that enables in-memory computa-
es of light interacting on a hardware grid to tion, where processing and memory occur
process information without the slowdown in the same physical location. With memory
caused by digital computing layers. This tech- and processing occurring in the same place,
nology could enable next-generation com- the magnonic technique could significantly
puters that perform tasks far more efficiently reduce computing’s energy consumption by
than digital electronic computers. overcoming the memory wall. Theoretically,
it could enable terahertz data processing
Magnon-based Computation speeds, far exceeding today’s gigahertz
Traditional computing architectures sep- processors. While still requiring optimiza-
arate processors and memory, requiring tion, this approach shows promise for more
energy-intensive signal conversions to move sustainable computing through wave-based
data between components. This bottleneck, in-memory processing. By attracting re-
known as the memory wall, slows computa- searchers to magnonics, the team hopes to
tion and wastes energy. However, a team led spur interest in this field.
by Dirk Grundler at the Swiss Federal Insti-
tute of Technology is developing an alterna-
tive computing approach using magnonics
to overcome this limitation. Magnonics, an
emerging field that aims to enable faster,
more efficient information technologies,
uses magnons, which are quanta of spin
waves that can encode and transport data in
magnetic materials without electron flows or
Joule heating. The researchers harnessed this Magnon-based computing utilizes magnons—quasiparticles associated with the collective spin wave
property to design a magnonic computing excitations in magnetic materials—to process and store information, offering a potential pathway to
low-power, high-speed computing.

TECH COMPUTING
QUANTUM
COMPUTING

TECH COMPUTING
QUANTUM COMPUTING
Quantum Advantage Research, this achievement marks the first Though both countries purport to be the computing, expressing concern that China
Quantum advantage, also known as quan- instance of quantum computers modeling a global quantum leader, between 2011 and could weaponize this emerging technology. It
tum supremacy, is the theoretical point when physical system in nature beyond the ca- 2020, the US led in quantum computing is anticipated that export controls on quan-
quantum computers outperform classical pabilities of leading classical approaches. publications and secured double the num- tum computing hardware, error correction
computers by solving problems more effi- According to him, this milestone signifies ber of highly cited publications compared to software, and provision of cloud services to
ciently, accurately, or faster. In June 2023, IBM the advent of a new era of practical utility for China, according to Foreign Policy. US quan- Chinese entities will become the next battle-
Quantum and University of California, Berkeley quantum computing. Although IBM’s exper- tum computing companies also reportedly ground in the US-China tech war. Despite this
researchers unveiled a major step forward iment doesn’t serve as definitive proof, it received 30 times more funding than their competition, tech companies acknowledge
in the quest for quantum supremacy. In an offers a valuable data point suggesting that private Chinese counterparts, though signif- that achieving true quantum advantage re-
experiment, they both executed increasingly by using error mitigation, current quantum icant investment is being made in govern- quires collective effort, so expect an increase
complex physical simulations—IBM Quantum computers can provide benefits much sooner ment-backed research in China. But China is in partnerships within the sector.
on the 127-qubit IBM Quantum Eagle proces- than previously anticipated. moving quickly: Despite trailing in quantum
computing, the country leads the world in Quantum Noise Reduction
sor, and UC Berkeley using state-of-the-art
Global Quantum Competition quantum communications, a subfield that In 2023, researchers made several advances
classical approximation methods on super-
computers. At certain computational levels, Both the US and China are competing to be- promises ultra-secure data transfers. And in strategies to overcome noise and errors
the traditional supercomputer’s brute-force come the global leader in quantum—a posi- Chinese quantum researchers claim to have that limit the accuracy and reliability of
methods failed while the quantum processor tion that would enable the leading country to developed an algorithm that can break pub- quantum computers. One approach is IBM’s
continued to deliver solutions. Even when threaten adversaries’ various information in- lic-key encryption, much earlier than antic- zero noise extrapolation (ZNE) which aims to
classical solutions weren’t possible, advanced frastructures by cracking existing encryption ipated. Though these claims have been met mitigate these issues, and was key to achiev-
classical approximation methods were used methods, building impenetrable encrypted with much skepticism, if valid, they would ing the aforementioned major step forward in
for comparison with quantum outcomes. It communication networks, and developing imply a significant quantum advantage for quantum advantage. ZNE intentionally intro-
was observed that the quantum processor’s highly precise sensors. Furthermore, the first China. duces more noise into quantum circuits and
results were more accurate than the classical country to commercialize quantum would then estimates the noiseless result by extrap-
Notably, following controls on semiconduc-
approximations, marking a significant ad- have enormous market power; by 2035, the olating backward. This relies on modeling how
tors, the US Commerce Department seems
vancement in quantum computing. For Darío global market value of quantum computing noise impacts the quantum computer’s out-
to be turning its attention to quantum
Gil, senior vice president and director of IBM alone is predicted to reach $1 trillion. puts. Other approaches aim to protect qubits

TECH COMPUTING
QUANTUM COMPUTING
from noise during computations and improve potentially suitable for building large-scale efforts, reaching the highest-ever observed This combination enables researchers to run
measurements of their states. For example, quantum computers. This design achieved entanglement rate in such systems. Collec- intricate applications that utilize both quan-
National Institute of Standards and Technol- over 99.9% accuracy in both two-qubit gates tively, these advancements represent major tum and classical computing strengths. Key
ogy scientists created a device with a toggle and single-qubit gates. Separately, RIKEN steps towards realizing robust, scalable, and capabilities like quantum error correction,
switch to adjust qubit connectivity and iso- scientists leveraged machine learning for accurate quantum computing. calibration, control, and execution of hybrid al-
late them when not needed. This helps reduce efficient approximate quantum error correc- gorithms are now viable, ushering in a new era
environmental noise that disturbs the qubits. tion, outperforming other methods. Another Hybrid Classical-Quantum of quantum-accelerated supercomputing.
Separately, MIT researchers developed a new team, in a collaboration among Harvard, MIT, As we await the era of full quantum suprem-
parametric amplifier that squeezes noise over and QuEra Computing, reported a signifi- acy, hybrid classical-quantum computing Quantum Quality Over Quantity
a broader bandwidth. By redistributing noise, cant breakthrough in Nature. Their platform, has emerged as a practical solution in Some quantum computing companies have
they can amplify the lower-noise variable and based on an array of cold, laser-trapped the interim. Hybrid systems combine the shifted their focus from chasing qubit count
get more accurate readouts. Though quantum rubidium atoms, each acting as a qubit, strengths of quantum computers, like run- records to building practical systems that
hardware remains error-prone, these advanc- demonstrated near-flawless performance of ning complex simulations or factoring large can solve real-world problems. For example,
es reflect encouraging progress toward prac- two-qubit entangling gates with extreme- numbers, with the capabilities of classical IBM’s new 133-qubit Heron processor shows
tical noise reduction. ly low error rates. They achieved the ability computers for tasks like data management an emphasis on qubit quality over raw qu-
to entangle atoms with error rates below and error correction. This allows us to tap bit numbers. Though lower qubit count than
Quantum Error Detection and Correction 0.5%, a major step forward in quantum error into the potential of quantum even with its previous IBM chips, Heron’s modular design
Quantum error detection and correction are correction. Additionally, Caltech researchers present limitation. In March 2023, Nvidia may enable scaling to far larger sizes by
essential for the advancement of quantum demonstrated a type of quantum eraser, announced an important advancement in connecting multiple processors. This “modu-
computing, ensuring accurate computations. effectively pinpointing and correcting “era- hybrid computing with the DGX Quantum lar” approach could be key to more powerful
2023 witnessed several significant strides in sure” errors in quantum computing systems. system, the first GPU-accelerated quantum quantum computers. IBM will connect Heron
this area. MIT researchers developed a super- They developed a system where erroneous at- computer. The DGX Quantum incorporates chips using conventional electronics, dis-
conducting qubit architecture using a new oms fluoresce when hit with a laser, allowing Quantum Machines’ sophisticated quantum rupting their quantum states. However, IBM’s
type of superconducting qubit called fluxo- for precise error location and removal. Their control platform OPX together with Nvidia’s vision is that quantum-compatible links, like
nium, enhancing the accuracy of operations method achieved a tenfold improvement in powerful Grace Hopper Superchip and CUDA fiber optics or microwaves, will enable modu-
between qubits. This architecture is scalable, entanglement rates compared to previous Quantum programming model. lar chips to connect into a distributed, scaled

TECH COMPUTING
QUANTUM COMPUTING
system—potentially millions of high-quality are exhausted. But these types of complex A quantum internet could provide virtually peaters to relay information in segments. The
qubits. Companies like PsiQuantum have computation problems are where quantum unhackable communications since qubits Princeton team’s device stands out for its use
similar modular visions. computers shine. A team from the Russian rely on the physical properties of photons, of infrared light, which is more robust for fiber
Quantum Center in Skolkovo, Moscow, has which cannot be intercepted. The laws of optic transmission than the visible light used
PsiQuantum, a company using photons as
demonstrated that quantum computing quantum mechanics simply do not allow it; in other designs. They achieved this by embed-
qubits, is nearly done with a modular silicon
devices together with machine learning can any attempt to observe particles in a quan- ding a single rare earth ion in a crystal, emit-
quantum chip design. According to Chief
be used for generative chemistry and drug tum state will alter the particles and thus ting light at the ideal infrared wavelength, thus
Scientific Officer Peter Shadbolt, an ultrafast,
design. They developed a hybrid architecture destroy any information they transmit. In eliminating the need for signal conversion.
low-loss optical switch—the last component
that melds quantum computers with deep May 2023, researchers at the University of
needed—will mean all features are in place Open-Source Quantum Software
classical networks, overcoming the com- Innsbruck built the first long-distance quan-
for a scalable quantum chip. PsiQuantum plexities inherent in the structural space of tum repeater node for telecommunication Quantum computing holds great promise
will then connect many chips into a cohesive potential drug-like molecules. Their compact networks transmitting quantum information but remains prohibitively expensive for most
system at warehouse scale. Announcements
model successfully generated 2,331 novel over 50 km of optical fiber. This is significant researchers. Individual hobbyists cannot build
from multiple companies point to modular
chemical structures from a subset of the because until now, the likelihood of photons quantum computers in their garages; only
multi-chip quantum systems as a key area of
ChEMBL database of biologically active com- being lost over long distances was very high. governments and large companies can afford
progress to watch in 2024 and beyond. They
pounds. This outcome is exciting because The researchers showed that with some the capital required. This poses a problem
could signify a path to finally achieving quan-
it demonstrates the feasibility of using improvements, their design could transmit because, like any scientific field, quantum
tum computers with hundreds of high-quality
currently available or soon-to-be-released over 800 km, enough to connect Innsbruck computing would accelerate with more minds
qubits and meaningful computational power.
quantum devices for real-world health appli- and Vienna. Separately, Princeton research- contributing. So, researchers are motivat-
cations. ers have also made a significant advance- ed to develop open-source tools for greater
Quantum Machine Learning
ment in quantum communication by devel- collaboration. One example is SuperConga,
The complexity and enormity of drug design The Quantum Internet oping a new type of quantum repeater—key open-source software to simulate quantum
pose significant challenges for traditional for linking quantum computers over large
The quantum internet is a proposed future materials. Researchers at Chalmers University
computational methods. Due to the countless distances. Unlike classical data, which can
network that would allow quantum comput- in Sweden created SuperConga specifically
number of possible molecular candidates, travel long distances without interruption,
ers and quantum devices to communicate to understand unconventional superconduc-
even the most advanced supercomputers quantum information requires quantum re-
with each other using quantum information. tors, which have properties that could protect

TECH COMPUTING
QUANTUM COMPUTING
quantum information. But because experi- flexible routines with conditional logic and es and a high level of technical expertise. tum computers. One provides access to Chi-
ments are difficult, expensive, and time-con- loops. Once a quantum circuit is executed To increase accessibility, many companies na’s fastest quantum computer, Zuchongzhi
suming, a lot is unknown about these lit- and an output is generated, the quantum now offer quantum computing as a cloud- 2, and the other access to Quafu, a computer
tle-explored superconductors. state collapses upon measurement, marking based service, also referred to as quan- from the Beijing Academy of Quantum Infor-
the end of that specific computation. Hori- tum-as-a-service or serverless quantum. mation Sciences. Both will provide researchers
That’s where a tool like SuperConga comes in. zon Quantum Computing is building a set of IBM is one such company providing more and students hands-on access to advance
The key is studying quantum properties from programming tools that enable developers accessible quantum computing through its quantum computing research and education.
the microscopic particle level up to the macro- to perform flexible computation routines on open-source Qiskit software. Qiskit allows
scopic scale. Researchers need tools that work Quantum Resistant Cryptography
quantum computers. The approach would classical code to have low-latency access to
in between, at the mesoscopic level. Open- allow users to write programs in classical quantum processors, enabling much faster “Q-Day” refers to the threshold when quantum
source software like SuperConga lowers the languages that can be compiled on quantum execution for workloads that leverage quan- computers can crack traditional internet-se-
barrier so more researchers can drive progress computers, without requiring any knowledge tum hardware through repeated iterations. curing encryption protocols. This possibility
in quantum computing. With a collaborative of quantum computing. There is also grow- Everything is provided as encapsulated was first predicted in 1994 by Peter Shor of
ecosystem, the field can advance more rapidly. ing recognition of the need for new “non- cloud services, with no capacity planning or Bell Labs, who published a paper showing
standard” quantum programming approach- lifecycle management required by the user. quantum algorithms could crack RSA encryp-
A Developers’ Quantum Toolbox
es. Hybrid quantum-classical computing Microsoft, too, has embraced the quantum- tion, a system relying on large prime number
Programming quantum computers presents and versatile programming models are in- as-a-service model, announcing its Inte- keys, unsolvable by today’s supercomput-
significant challenges, primarily because creasingly seen as promising paths forward. grated Hybrid feature in Azure Quantum, the ers but potentially crackable in minutes by
they introduce an entirely new computation- Companies like Algorithmiq are pursuing company’s open software cloud: Researchers quantum computers. This suggests the first
al paradigm. Quantum computations are these paths by combining quantum comput- can now build applications combining clas- entity to create a working quantum computer
often described using the quantum circuit ing with classical algorithms specifically for sical and quantum code to run on Quantin- gains massive hacking capabilities. Acknowl-
model, where algorithms are expressed as drug discovery. uum’s quantum computers through Azure edging this, companies like Vodafone have
a predefined sequence of quantum opera- Quantum. It’s not just companies that are announced partnerships with companies like
tions. This structure can make it difficult to Quantum-as-a-Service offering quantum in the cloud; China recent- SandboxAQ to test quantum-safe VPNs, using
implement certain programming concepts ly launched two quantum cloud platforms to
Owning and maintaining a quantum com- cryptographic algorithms from the US Na-
common in classical computing, such as allow public access to the country’s quan-
puter requires substantial financial resourc- tional Institute of Standards and Technology.

TECH COMPUTING
QUANTUM COMPUTING
They’re anticipating cyberattackers may al- fers have been a major obstacle, often caus- tance communication. Separately, Univer-
ready be collecting data for future decryption ing information degradation. However, Sus- sity of Waterloo scientists developed an
with quantum computers—a threat known as sex’s breakthrough achieved 99.999993% optical system to control individual barium
“Store Now, Decrypt Later”—and testing quan- accuracy, overcoming this barrier. Collabo- ion qubits with record precision, targeting
tum vulnerability scenarios on smartphones. ration with Rolls-Royce aims to apply en- them just microns apart. Barium ions are
hanced quantum capabilities to develop gaining popularity in the field of trapped ion
Multi-tasking Quantum highly efficient machines. This rapid, precise quantum computation for their manipula-
Researchers at the University of Sussex and qubit chip connectivity brings advanced, tion with visible versus ultraviolet light. This
Universal Quantum have achieved a major multi-tasking quantum computers closer enables the researchers to use commercial
milestone in quantum computing: success- to reality. It demonstrates the feasibility of available optical technologies. Their new
fully demonstrating the direct transfer of linking multiple quantum microchips to laser focusing method via a glass waveguide
quantum bits (qubits) between microchips construct vastly more powerful systems and establishes a straightforward yet highly pre-
at remarkable speed and accuracy. Published expands possibilities for real-world quantum cise approach to controlling qubits for com-
in Nature, this advancement addresses a key applications. puting, communication and more. Together,
challenge in constructing potent quantum these advances strengthen quantum foun-
computers to tackle complex problems. The Light-based Quantum Technologies dations while bringing practical, efficient
team used a new “UQ Connect” technique Two recent studies showcase significant quantum devices closer to reality.
involving electric field links to rapidly and progress in efficiently manipulating light
precisely transfer qubits between quantum and quantum particles to advance quantum
microchip modules. This Lego-like assembly technologies. Researchers at the University
method enables larger, multi-tasking quan- of Stuttgart enhanced the efficiency of a
tum systems. Unlike classical sequential vital quantum component, surpassing the Unlike traditional computers, quantum computers
processing, quantum computers can per- presumed theoretical limit. By increasing use quantum bits or qubits, which can represent and
form calculations simultaneously, leveraging efficiency from 50% to 57.9%, their seeming- store information as both 0 and 1 simultaneously
quantum properties like superposition and ly small gain enables multiple sequential thanks to superposition, enabling quantum comput-
entanglement. Reliable inter-chip qubit trans- quantum measurements, boosting long-dis- ers to process complex data and perform calculations
at speeds unattainable by classical computers.

TECH COMPUTING
SCENARIOS
SCENARIO YEAR 2038
Criminal Caught With Quantum

New York City, 2038—In a groundbreaking revelation, two of New York’s premier banks, JPMorgan Chase and
Citigroup, have successfully thwarted an advanced cyber intrusion, thanks to their recent implementation of
Quantum Key Distribution (QKD). The security breach, which went unnoticed for years, was finally detected and
led to the capture of the notorious hacker known as Cipher. Cipher, whose real identity remains confidential,
had been intercepting sensitive financial transactions between the two banking giants for several years. The
stealthy infiltration managed to bypass all classical encryption measures, leaving the banks unaware of the
constant surveillance. However, a recent upgrade to QKD technology changed the game.
With QKD’s arrival, the banks initiated a trial run to ensure the efficacy of the system. During a routine transac-
tion, the technology signaled an anomaly in the quantum channel. Kate Garlow, JPMorgan’s head of cybersecu-
rity, explains, “When we implemented QKD, we didn’t expect to find evidence of a security breach. We realized
something was amiss when the qubits’ state collapsed during transmission, a clear indication of eavesdrop-
ping.” Jorrie Norris, Citigroup’s chief technology officer, adds, “We knew right away that this wasn’t an ordinary
attempt. Cipher had been watching us for years, but QKD made his presence known.”

TECH COMPUTING
NETWORKING

TECH COMPUTING
SCENARIOS
SCENARIO YEAR 2026
Communal Compute at the Stadium

Carson makes her way to her seat at Arrowhead Stadium. She’s a life-long Kansas City Chiefs fan, and she’s tak-
ing advantage of being on call to catch the game, confident that her boss won’t find out.
Not long after she sits down, though, Carson’s phone buzzes; it’s her boss, urgently requesting her to run a
quick test on a model. A pang of panic hits her. She’s without her work computer, and the model requires signif-
icant processing power to run. However, she has her Steam Deck with her, which allows her to access her work
applications and data in the cloud. While the Steam Deck is powerful, it’s not enough to run the model efficient-
ly and quickly enough to avoid raising her boss’s suspicions.
Then, Carson remembers a recent announcement from her network provider about a new proximity-based com-
pute-sharing feature. This feature allows her device to tap into the spare processing capacity of other nearby
devices connected to the same network platform.
Quickly, Carson activates this shared intelligence, making use of the crowd’s idle computing power. The model
runs smoothly and efficiently on her Steam Deck, something that would normally be impossible given its lim-
itations. She sends off the results to her boss just as the stadium erupts in cheers for the kickoff.

TECH COMPUTING
NETWORKING
AI at the Edge Efficiency Improvements the challenge of efficiently distributing data
Large language models (LLMs) require massive Researchers from the University of Leicester across these high-frequency spectra. To
computing power, often relying on distant, have made significant strides in addressing address this, they developed a novel antenna
centralized data centers (cloud). However, the growing demands on mobile telecommu- system known as a delay phased array. This
providers can optimize costs and performance nications networks. With an anticipated rise system divides a single frequency band into
by balancing the cloud with edge computing— in connected devices, they developed a new multiple usable beams, effectively reducing
processing directly on local devices. While data technique known as multicarrier-division bandwidth wastage and lag in 5G mmWave
centers provide the robust computing power duplex. This technique focuses on resolving systems. Their prototype device decreased
needed for training and running massive LLMs, self-interference issues in 5G networks, a lag by 60-150%. Together, these research
processing directly on user devices at the edge crucial factor that affects communication efforts aim to meet the increasing demands
can greatly improve performance. These LLMs quality and efficiency. By utilizing fast Fou- for high-speed, efficient, and reliable wire-
can take months to train and run on complex rier transform processing, their approach less communication.
servers costing over $30,000 per GPU, but pro- optimizes the assignment of subcarrier sets
The 6G Cyber-physical Continuum
viders can significantly cut costs by running and the number of access point clusters. In
lightweight versions locally on users’ devices. simulations mimicking real-world industri- In 2022, the deployment of 5G technology
Doing this also reduces latency, improves pri- al settings, this technology demonstrated unfolded globally, albeit at a pace slow-
vacy, lowers data transfer costs, and increases superior performance compared to existing er than initially projected. Meanwhile, its
accessibility. For example, Microsoft’s Office methods, achieving a notable 10% reduction successor, 6G, is already in the early stages
365 Co-pilot uses on-device AI to assist users in power consumption. This advancement of development, with an expected market
across Windows, Google’s Gecko Palm 2 model indicates a significant step towards more launch in the early 2030s. 6G, characterized
runs efficiently on mobile, and Meta’s LLaMA energy-efficient and effective telecommuni- by its remarkably low latency, is anticipated
has a 7B parameter version for edge devices. cations networks. Simultaneously, research- to facilitate truly immersive experiences.
AI at the edge allows devices to run large language
By combining the power of the cloud with the ers at the University of California San Diego Telecommunications company Ericsson, a models locally, enabling smart applications on-the-
speed and efficiency of edge computing, ven- have been working on enhancing the utiliza- frontrunner in 5G and edge technologies, go without needing constant internet connectivity.
dors can bring the benefits of AI to more users tion of the 5G-and-beyond millimeter wave envisions that 6G will enable unimpeded
at lower cost. (mmWave) network. Their research tackles movement within the cyber-physical contin-

TECH COMPUTING
NETWORKING
uum. This continuum represents the inter- US, acknowledging China’s impressive 5G First 6G Real-time Wire Transmission research underscores the potential of 6G to
play between our tangible world—filled with deployment and 6G satellite experiments, is In a major breakthrough for next-generation meet the ever-growing data demands of the
senses, actions, and experiences—and its prioritizing 6G to sustain its technological wireless technology, researchers at the Chi- future through ultra-fast speeds, increased
programmable digital counterpart. and defense leadership. The country’s Special na Aerospace Science and Industry Corpo- capacity, and spectral efficiency.
Competitive Studies Project, led by ex-Google ration’s Second Institute have achieved the
Ericsson’s vision of the cyber-physical CEO Eric Schmidt, has revealed a comprehen- Reducing Inference for 6G
first real-time wireless data transmission
continuum extends beyond the commonly sive plan promoting policies to reinstate US using 6G cellular networks. The team suc- To achieve the faster data rates expected with
understood metaverse, where avatars inter- dominance in 5G and beyond, which includes cessfully transmitted data at an unprece- 6G networks, signals will be distributed across
act within a virtual reality/augmented reality establishing pervasive, interoperable connec- dented rate of 100 gigabits per second on an extremely wide frequency spectrum in the
environment. It proposes a tighter integration tivity and winning the 6G race. This strategy a 10 GHz bandwidth at a frequency of 110 millimeter wave and terahertz bands. However,
with reality, enabling the projection of digital underscores the US’ current shortage of ma- GHz. This marks a significant leap forward spreading signals so broadly increases the
entities onto their physical counterparts rep- jor producers of complete telecom solutions. from current 5G capabilities by utilizing the risk of interference between communication
resented in the digital space. This fusion of
higher frequency terahertz range of the elec- channels. To address this challenge, research-
realities paves the way for a “merged reality,” Meanwhile, China has designated 6G as a
tromagnetic spectrum between 100 GHz and ers have sought to develop a filter that can
thereby enriching our actual world. According pivotal tech priority; a commitment demon-
10 THz. Transmitting in the terahertz range protect receivers across the full 6G radio
to Ericsson, 6G will herald an era of a digitized strated by China Telecom’s white paper advo-
enables substantially faster data transfer frequency spectrum. For practical widespread
and programmable physical world, intercon- cating for an intelligent programmable RAN
rates and increased transmission capacity deployment, this filter needs to be compact,
nected and sustainable. This new age will be network. China’s national 6G coordinating
compared to microwave frequencies used in energy-efficient, multifunctional, and able to
bolstered by intelligent machines and the body, IMT-2030, is encouraging innovative
existing cellular networks. Another key inno- be integrated on a chip. To do this, researchers
Internet of Senses, providing a synergistic tech proposals to create a substantial repos-
vation demonstrated was the use of orbital created a simplified photonic architecture for
support system for human endeavors. itory of potential 6G technologies. Simulta-
angular momentum (OAM) multiplexing for the filter. Unlike previous programmable inte-
neously, India’s intention to be a player in the
encoding signals. By using OAM, the re- grated microwave photonic filters composed
6G Global Competition global 6G race was made clear with Prime
searchers were able to transmit multiple sig- of hundreds of repeating units, this simplified
The global 6G race is escalating, with the Minister Narendra Modi’s unveiling of the
nals simultaneously on the same frequency, design achieves comparable performance
US, China, and India investing heavily in Bharat 6G Vision document, which outlines a
proving this as a more efficient method with lower loss and complexity. The filter chip
advancing their telecom capabilities. The plan for 6G deployment by 2030.
for exploiting the available spectrum. The therefore has the potential to enhance wire-

TECH COMPUTING
NETWORKING
less communication, which would lead to like videoconferencing, gaming, and VR

faster internet at a lower cost and with less more reliable and responsive. The improved
energy consumption. OFDMA encoding allows more simultaneous
device connections by avoiding interference.
Wi-Fi 7 With router manufacturers already support-
While many only recently updated their net- ing Wi-Fi 7, compatible laptops debuted
works to Wi-Fi 6 or 6E, the next generation at CES 2023 to take advantage of faster
Wi-Fi 7 has already arrived to build on their throughput and lower latency when unteth-
advancements. With Wi-Fi 7, users can expect ered. As the successor to Wi-Fi 6, Wi-Fi 7
a substantial increase in network speeds, a brings the robust, high-performance wire-
leap made possible by the expansive 6GHz less connectivity that modern smart homes
band. This new standard maintains compati- and workspaces demand.
bility with older devices, ensuring a seamless
transition. As consumers gradually upgrade
their gadgets, they’ll notice significant im-
provements in network stability and per-
formance. With the ability to combine links
across bands, Wi-Fi 7 routers can dynamically
route data based on capacity, reducing con-
gestion.
Wi-Fi 7 promises major benefits for home and

office networks straining under the load of
more devices and bandwidth-hungry applica-
tions. By delivering speeds exceeding 30Gbps,
The most recent update to the Wi-Fi standard offers the potential for “near-zero” latency, making it ideal
the new standard will help make activities
for real-time applications such as wireless streaming of virtual reality content.

TECH COMPUTING
SCENARIOS
SCENARIO YEAR 2034
The Sisyphus Program: A Physical-Digital Continuum

Albert lost his manufacturing job to automation a year ago. Since then, he’s been receiving a similar level of
compensation by selling his personal data but he soon falls into a rut, feeling useless without being able to
mentally tie his monetary compensation to actual work output.
When he hears of the Sisyphus program, he decides to give it a try. Sisyphus is a pervasive application—it’s not
an app to download to a phone but rather one you can download to a home. The app assigns daily goals tailored
to an individual’s interests and tasks around the home, awarding points for completed activities, thereby pro-
viding a sense of accomplishment and pride similar to receiving a paycheck for work output.
Sisyphus starts assigning Albert daily goals optimized for his interests. The home hub uses internal sensors to
identify things that need to be fixed and locate where he last left his guitar, and external sensors to tell him the
ideal time to take his dog for a walk based on the temperature outside. Albert is awarded points for these activi-
ties. Even though it isn’t real money, he feels the same sense of pride he experienced when receiving a paycheck
because he can more clearly tie his physical tasks to rewards.

TECH COMPUTING
AUTHORS &
CONTRIBUTORS

TECH COMPUTING

Manager AMY WEBB
Editor
CHERYL COONEY

TECH COMPUTING
SELECTED
SOURCES

TECH COMPUTING
SELECTED SOURCES
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BUILT ENVIRONMENT
INDUSTRY BUILT ENVIRONMENT
TABLE OF CONTENTS
518 Top Headlines 535 Metamaterials 552 Digital Twin Predictive
519 State of Play Planning and Prevention
536 Resilient Design
Monitoring
520 Key Events 537 Addressing Housing Shortages
553 Enabled Devices for Urban
521 Likely Near Term 538 Regenerative Design Management
Developments
539 Scenario: Amphibious Cities 554 Scenario: The New Way
522 Why Built Environment to Walk
540 Augmented Practices
Trends Matter to Your 555 Construction Practices
Organization 541 Sensorial Elements
556 Mass Timber Construction
523 Opportunities and Threats 542 Automated Design
557 Net-Zero Construction
524 Investments and Actions 543 Metaverse Enabling
To Consider 558 Additive Construction
544 Inclusive Design
525 Central Themes 559 Interactive Project
545 Real-Time Data Collection for Management
527 Ones To Watch Decision-Making and Planning
560 Scenario: Road Today, School
528 Important Terms 546 Scenario: Instant Permitting Tomorrow
529 Adaptive Urban 547 Smart City Implementations 561 Scenario: Tag You Later!
Environments
548 Smart Buildings 562 Modular Construction
530 Chrono-Urbanism
549 Smart Home Automation and 563 Augmented Construction
531 Self-Organized Planning Monitoring
564 Scenario: Nostalgia-Made
532 Rewilding 550 Smart Parking and Roadways Spaces
533 Regenerative Practices Predictability
565 Authors
534 Adaptive Reuse and 551 Ubiquitous Sensor Distribution
Deconstruction

TOP HEADLINES 01 Sensors Are Predicting Structural Failures

Sensors are increasingly relied on to keep tabs on the aging and repair
needs of buildings.
As some cities face
the dual challenges of 02 The Empty Office Crisis Persists
aging infrastructure Office conversion and adaptive reuse are turning spaces back into
functional assets rather than relics of traditional 9-5, in-person workdays.
and urban decay,

compounded by sinking, 03 The Alarming Reality of Urban Areas Rapidly Sinking
Many cities are reporting that, just like Venice, their foundations are eroding.
new technologies are Jakarta, Indonesia, is ranked as the fastest sinking city in the world.
emerging to tackle these

issues along with other 04 Pigmentless Paint Becomes a Sustainable Solution
University of Central Florida’s plasmonic paint uses new ways to produce
concerns like housing colors that can keep buildings cooler.
and sustainability.
05 World’s Largest 3D Printed Neighborhood Is Underway
A new property development outside of Austin, Texas, is set to become
the world’s largest additively made community.

STATE As the built environment struggles to deal with a dwindling talent pool and
rising costs related to supply chain shortages, built environment professionals
OF PLAY
are facing their own existential crisis. They’re trying to hold onto their relevancy
amid heightened interest to adopt artificial intelligence, robotics, and new con-
struction practices that deliver projects faster and more efficiently. They’re also
unsure what skills will be most in demand for their industry in the future, and
are considering how they can bring human-centric behaviors to the forefront in
the meantime.
The industry is further looking in the mirror amid an increase in environmental

Focusing on Responsible and activism and calls for more responsible practices—as it is, the built environment
industry is widely known as one of the leading causes of waste and consumption
Responsive Buildings, Structures, in the world. New practices such as rewilding and deconstruction are gaining
and Construction prominence and even regulatory backing from regions and municipalities. This
shift is building off the focus on fostering health and wellness to create places
where people want to spend their time.
New technologies for power generation, infrastructure, and data collection offer
ways for projects to last longer, which then raises questions about what that
future longevity looks like. Completely connected projects that use sensors,
drones, and other tools are providing real-time data that is also being leveraged
to generate drawings, models, business strategies, and practices that enable
better-informed decisions by both companies and clients. All of these develop-
ments highlight a push to challenge outdated practices and move into a new era
for this industry.

KEY EVENTS
F E B R UA RY 1 5 , 2 0 2 3 J U LY 2 1 , 2 0 2 3 O C TO B E R 3 , 2 0 2 3
Earthquake-Resistant Tower Completed Self-Healing Metal Discovery Tallest Timber Building Approved
In Tokyo, a new supertall skyscraper was Researchers investigating cracks at a Developers in Perth get the OK to start
specifically designed and built to resist microscopic level observe metal self-healing working on what will be the world’s tallest
the impacts of earthquakes. under a process called cold welding. building using timber construction.
MARCH 31, 2023 S E P T E M B E R 9, 2 0 2 3
India’s 3D Printed Bridge ICC Code Updates Bring Necessary Changes

Thanks to a new process, India Finding building code updates will be easier with
now has its first 3D printed bridge the use of QR codes, while waste management
using indigenous materials. also gets more attention.


CLIENTS HAVE NEW REQUIREMENTS Deconstruction Plans Become Required Immersive Design Leads to Spatial Built Environment Develops Data Markets
EXPECTATIONS Relevancy
Many areas already have deconstruction With a vast pool of human-centric data, the
Integrated data and the output from As the world becomes more immersed
requirements, aiming to reduce waste built environment is sitting on untapped
models that use that data are becom- heading to a landfill. These types of in technology, screens and devices are revenue streams of information that could
ing more of a requirement, allowing requirements will likely only continue to continuing to shrink. This means that benefit many business sectors. Past client
for greater manipulation and under- increase, which will change permit and spaces will need to accommodate for more contracts may prevent this from occurring, but
standing in the preconstruction and construction planning. immersive experiences in their design. newly developed contracts would allow firms to
documentation phases. Clients will sell this data.
continue to want proof that a project
will perform financially, and to interact Cities Organize Themselves Jurisdictions and Developers Require Smart Green Infrastructure Combats
Second-Life Designs Eco-Anxiety
and engage with that data on a more Urban planning and development requires
routine basis. More regions and mu- long-term strategy and planning, which can Just as deconstruction will likely be regulated, The urgency of climate change could lead
nicipalities will also want plans that be complicated by sudden societal shifts and so will adaptive reuse projects that address to an increase in eco-friendly infrastructure
needs. AI and digital twins will be able to help housing shortages. New mixed-use zoning or that allows for power sharing and carbon-free
extend beyond the structure itself,
accommodate for these shifts, increasing urban zoning developments will likely enable transportation. These updates could bring
including options for what to do with this change. resilience to areas where people worry about
the chances of automated planning directing
the materials once the life cycle of the where developments should take place next. being displaced due to climate change.
project is complete, as well as plans
for how to convert entire blocks or just
11 MACRO SOURCES OF DISRUPTION
rooftops into functional spaces. The
upfront planning process will become
even more important as technology
will more clearly show what should be
prioritized, such as a road to be fixed
or a new sewer system to be installed. Telecom Distribution

WHY BUILT ENVIRONMENT TRENDS MATTER TO YOUR ORGANIZATION
Additive IoT Data Predictive Smart Urban Regenerative Inclusivity

Manufacturing Collection Maintenance Planning Infrastructure
Additive manufacturing As cities and spaces Unexpected costs for For developing Regenerative and greener As younger generations
will speed up collect more data, this buildings, bridges, regions, planning and infrastructure will consider where they
construction, reduce information will continue roadways, sewers, development takes ultimately lead to cost want to live and work,
costs and inventory to reveal what should be factories, and other massive partnerships savings for businesses, creating places that
needs, and increase prioritized and what is structures will continue and relies heavily on cities, and residents— are more inclusive will
material efficiency. The unnecessary, enabling to be a headache for outside expertise. New as well as help address ultimately attract these
customization enabled real-time management facility managers and tools for automating this risks due to location and future workers to regions
through this process and decision-making. city workers. New tools for process could provide climate change. Investing that prioritize this type
will also change the way This will also help reduce predicting maintenance cost savings to those in this infrastructure of design. This can help
designs come to life. This upfront costs and costs will enable better budget regions, which would shift will also build bonds to bring in new talent and
type of manufacturing over time as the data will planning and help the types of business communities and help prepare companies
has the potential to create help companies make developers estimate yearly partnerships they might investors see progress on for new regulations
new opportunities for better decisions. upfront costs with greater seek. For established declared sustainability that require greater
on-demand and on-site accuracy. regions, these automated goals. accessibility and diversity.
selling. tools will allow for longer
planning initiatives but
may also be unsettling for
residents.
Scaling new technology and practices will continue to be a hurdle due to a Cutting-edge automation will unlock efficiency to combat the talent shortage.
lack of long-term planning.
Expanded practices can provide new revenue streams—if the right experts are in
The need to evolve traditional design and business practices as the industry place to manage new offerings.
becomes commoditized is urgent.
New sources of data can empower clients with insightful, decision-enhancing
Communities will resist the necessity of new technologies due to a lack of analytics.
exposure and understanding of what they are.
Niche markets offer an opening to prominence in the industry, if innovative
The tech gap in de-prioritized cities and communities will continue to widen. services are brought along.
New data privacy requirements will be a barrier as the industry begins to rely State-of-the-art materials and technology plus time for upskilling encourage
on even more data collection sensors and tools. dynamic career growth.

1 2 3 4 5 6
Consider investing in creat- Returning to more natu- Reconstruction and de- Cities will need to create As water scarcity contin- Additive manufacturing
ing or finding LLMs specific ral processes will require construction will require investment strategies that ues, investments in water construction practices
to the built environment in- considerable investment in investment in new equip- align with chrono-urban- monitoring will become will continue to grow and
dustry. Currently, there is a new details, strategic plans, ment and monitoring of ism requirements, meaning more crucial. This will allow scale. Investing in these
lack of an industry-specific and communications. These regulations. Lobbying for more mixed-use site invest- residents to feel safe, and technologies now will
model that can become an investments should be and adapting to regula- ments and planning will be potentially attract more acquaint companies with
industry standard. The first planned out to determine tions that do not complete- required. This, along with mobile residents to shore how these technologies
to market with this devel- when their impact will be ly disrupt the industry, but necessary smart city invest- up tax bases within munic- work as they evolve. Con-
opment will set the tone for most relevant to clients and are still proactive for the ments, could tie up budgets ipalities and regions suf- sider starting with smaller
how AI will be used in the when strategic partner- environment, could require for many cities over the fering from people moving forms of equipment that
future. ships can be used to leap- diverse strategies. next decade. away. facilitate creating pieces
frog competitors. and parts that can bolster
supply chains.

CENTRAL THEMES
Still Working Toward Automation Data for Decisions Material Intelligence
Finding the right balance between automation and Data collection and modeling will keep increasing, with Materials are becoming smarter and more capable of
human intervention and design is a work in progress. digital twins expanding what building information self-management, so our understanding of how they
Tension comes into play when looking at what automa- modeling can mean for projects and decisions. Besides work needs to evolve. Self-managing, self-assembling,
tion could mean for rising costs and labor shortages— allowing leaders, officials, developers, and clients to and self-healing are just a few of the newer attributes
depending on whether you see it as a boon or a threat. study the effect of their decisions on an overall proj- becoming more mainstream. Documentation practices
Researchers are studying the use of artificial intelli- ect, these intelligent models can contain sensors and are changing as a result, and investments are gaining
gence in planning, such as in automating the itera- other devices that collect more data and allow project longevity—buildings could potentially last longer with
tion, validation, and selection processes. While other components to speak for themselves in new ways. But less maintenance for developers and cities. The devel-
industries are focusing on AI automation throughout because digital twins require a higher degree of mod- opment of material intelligence is likely to continue to
the value chain, for the built environment, the focus eling, the quality of the models and their reporting grow, and so will the need for new staffing positions
for automation is mainly on the front and back end of require more accuracy. This data is now becoming a and updates to performance and code restrictions.
a project or process: This presents opportunities that requirement for the front end of projects, even before
could be captured and developed. construction documentation gets underway.

CENTRAL THEMES
Climate Change Responsibility New Forms of Monitoring Scaling Disruptions
As more communities deal with extreme weather, cities Aging is a big consideration for what new technology Ready to upend the built environment industry, ad-
and companies increasingly want their infrastructure and products can monitor and predict. The wear and ditive manufacturing, mass timber construction,
and buildings to be prepared for a crisis. Planning for tear on existing places, spaces, and infrastructure is modular construction, and regenerative design are all
climate change requires heightened awareness of the a concern especially in areas trying to compete with advancing but have yet to scale. This trend can already
materials used and the structure that’s created. De- neighboring regions implementing smart infrastruc- be seen with new uses for modular construction for
velopers require more upfront data on how and where ture. Areas dealing with urban decay or failing infra- mobility, regenerative buildings giving back to their
materials were manufactured and shipped. The long- structure have tough choices on where to allocate their community, the use of additive manufacturing to cre-
term aftereffects need to be modeled to ensure the capital improvement budgets and will expect technol- ate more efficient builds and parts, and new possibili-
surrounding area will not be harmed over the life of ogy to provide more insight into when these failings ties for structure and use types. Watching these indi-
the project. More mixed-use developments are occur- could occur. This includes new tools for monitoring cators to see how they develop and are regulated will
ring because of these changes, with amenities being resources, especially dwindling natural resources. For provide useful information when these technologies
implemented in more condensed, neighborhood-like smart cities, new advances are allowing for detailed scale to prominence and become more of a practice
buildings and shifting what was usually found in urban monitoring of residents. than a novelty.
centers to neighborhoods. Returning processes back to
their natural way of functioning is also changing how
land is developed and what designs are considered.

ONES TO WATCH
Dr. Mohammad Taha, researcher at Uni- Hu Tengyun, Zhang Xiaodong, Xie Peng- Antonin Yuji Maeno and Kelsea Crawford,
versity of Melbourne, for researching nano feiI, Li Xuecao, Liu Han, and Sun Daosheng co-founders at Cutwork, for their work on
inks to change how buildings use energy. of the Beijing Institute of Urban Planning PolyRoom, which allows for Lego-like mod-
& Design, for their work on automating the ular construction.
Othmane Zrikem, chief data officer at A/O analysis of vacant lots within cities.
Proptech, for backing climate technology Pavan Akula, assistant professor of civil
startups. Dr. Ki-Tae Park, lead researcher at Korea engineering at the Oregon State Univer-
Institute of Civil Engineering and Building sity College of Engineering, for his work
Namratha Kothapalli, principal at Speed- Technology, for his work on technologies on creating new materials for 3D printing
invest, for their backing of industrial to predict maintenance needed for aging from CO2.
technology. bridges.
K.V.L. Subramaniam and his research
Kaj Casén, CEO at Meyer Floating Solu- Hiroshi Ishii, associate director at MIT group at the Indian Institute of Technology
tions, for his work on floating housing. Media Lab, and Ozgun Kilic Afsar, a grad- Hyderbad’s Department of Civil Engineer-
uate research assistant at MIT Media Lab, ing for their work on developing new meth-
Andrew Binet, assistant professor at Uni-
for their research on new fabric fibers that ods for 3D printing bridges.
versity of British Columbia, for their work
promote healing.
on ownership in neighborhoods for com- Neri Oxman, for fusing design, technology,
munity engagement and health. Nathan Daix and Augustin Monfret, and biology for Oxman, the company she
co-founders at SonarVision, for using 3D leads.
Luca Staricco, associate professor at
sound to help those who are visually im-
Politecnico di Torino, for his work on 5-, 10-,
paired to navigate a city.
and 15-minute cities.
Georgina McDonald, lead of creative and
Rainey Shane, social sustainability di-
partnerships at SPACE10, for her collabora-
rector at JLL Americas, for her work on the
tion project to use AI to design a flat-pack
SEAM certification for social equity.
couch.

IMPORTANT TERMS
Additively made Digital twins Internet of Things (IoT) NAIOP
Products, materials, or items made from 3D A dynamic digital version of a physical object Devices that are connected through a network The US-based Commercial Real Estate Devel-
printing or additive manufacturing. such as a city, roadway, building, or door, a to send and receive data. opment Association.
digital twin uses real-time data to produce
BIM (building information modeling) reports for the object’s performance. Large language models (LLMs) Net zero
This digital model is used for creating plan- Used to train AI models, LLMs are trained on Projects that are designed so that their use of
ning and construction documents. It is similar Environmental, social, and corporate gover- vast amounts of text data, enabling them energy consumed over a year is balanced out
to a digital twin but typically does not evolve nance (ESG) to perform a wide range of language-related by the renewable energy they produce.
after the project is completed. A framework many companies are using to tasks.
establish their policies for how they address Urban center
Biodiversity each category. Mass timber construction Traditionally refers to the central downtown
The integration and preservation of various A construction process and design technique area of a city.
biological life-forms and ecosystems. Experiential design that uses large or solid engineered wood prod-
This is a design practice for creating interac- ucts for its structural components.
Built environment tive and sensory experiences.
This encompasses projects and practices MEP
within architecture, interior design, civil engi- Extended reality (XR) An abbreviation for mechanical, electrical, and
neering, MEP engineering, structural engineer- A technology that can augment the physical plumbing services.
ing, landscape architecture, product design world through either virtual or augmented
and manufacturing, construction, experiential reality. Metaverse
design, and urban planning. The underlying technologies that create a
International Code Council (ICC) more digitally augmented physical world and
Circular design The council develops model codes and stan- reality.
A design practice that focuses on creating dards for the built environment and is used by
products and spaces that, once they reach the over 50 countries. Modular construction
end of their life cycle, can be repurposed or A construction process that uses prefabricat-
reused. ed components to create a space, building, or
other structure.

ADAPTIVE
URBAN
ENVIRONMENTS

1ST YEAR ON THE LIST HOW IT WORKS WHY IT MATTERS
CHRONO-URBANISM Chrono-urbanism studies the layout of current and future planned

amenities within a certain time-based restriction. In Melbourne,
Chrono-urbanism can help improve accessibility and walkability
for municipalities. As urban centers struggle to retain residents,
a pilot program found that 20 minutes is the farthest people were a focus on chrono-urbanism can make them more inclusive, by
willing to walk for their daily needs, according to C40 Knowledge. attracting new people and widening the demographic. This type
Other cities have experimented with this type of urban planning, of planning can also enable greater sustainability and change
including Barcelona’s “Superblocks,” Bogota’s children priority transportation methods—both of which will become increasing-
zones, Buenos Aires’ car-free zone, Paris’ direction to create “capi- ly important. Localizing services to neighborhoods within these
tals” in neighborhoods, and more. time-centered areas will offer more niche consumers, giving op-
portunities to businesses looking to break into markets. As these
WHAT IT IS In Barcelona, the city has been implementing Superblocks for the regions grow and shift, population centers will be fluid, and may
past decade, reclaiming urban areas used by cars for people, retail, result in new geographic centers being prioritized. Planners will
Chrono-urbanism refers to and social activities. In 2021, a study found a decrease in both air face the challenges of determining various necessities while also
and noise pollution in these areas, while residents also reported a needing to encourage cultural synching within neighborhoods and
municipalities seeking to contain better sense of safety and higher interactions between neighbors. regions. But ultimately, by understanding the temporal patterns of
everything residents need on Technology is now enabling chrono-urbanism planning for such
a city, developers can make more informed decisions about where
and what to build. This can lead to more profitable investments, as
developments, which increases the efficiency of the planning pro-
a daily basis within a 5-, 10- or cess. Digital Blue Foam worked on its own LLMs that can propose
developments become better aligned with the times when people
are most active in certain areas.
15- minute walk. This is evolving feasible 15-minute city design ideas, so planners can create neigh-
borhoods that will give other residents a similar experience to the
as urban planning studies are Superblocks. Now, 15-minute cities are evolving into chrono-urban-
ism, informed by a 2022 study that evaluated denser urban areas
utilizing multiple technologies like with tighter time-based circumferences, like 5-, 10-, and 15-minute
AI and data mapping. neighborhoods.

SELF-ORGANIZED Site selection and verification can be a costly and time-consum-

ing process; before any structure is built, real estate developers
Zoning has been a barrier for many cities as they look to provide
infrastructure and amenities to both attract new residents and
PLANNING
have to do a lot of upfront work to analyze both the location and support existing ones. This technology and planning methodology
market. As cities integrate more technology, the organization and could help accomplish both goals—aiding both cities looking to
development of neighborhoods, streets, and regions are becoming address urban decay and developers looking to maximize their
self-automated. investments. Underdeveloped areas or rural regions could identify
which investments could help them be more stable or leapfrog
Now, AI is providing ways to reduce much of the lift in urban a neighbor. More established cities and locations could achieve
planning and development. Software company Deepblocks has more resiliency. Some of these new capabilities will shift stake-
WHAT IT IS released tools for developers and investors to help pick the best holder integration and interactions, as residents will still want
site for their projects, including information on zoning and ways a say in how their cities are planned, but greater localized data
Technology is automating to test build through a virtual platform. It also allows for exports of could help provide better insights that reflect the communities’
reports based on its analysis. Other companies are looking to take preferences. For businesses, this technology could either end up
planning, site selection, and that automation even further. A recently filed patent claims to use enabling or disrupting the area around them. If the tools identify
AI modeling of a city for automatic site selection based on a set of
infrastructure deployment around criteria, to help cities understand how they can utilize underuti-
that an area is better off zoned for a different function, that could
either disrupt the location or bring new customers. And as office
cities. It can now also be used to lized areas. Another patent claims that it can use data to assess
vacant areas in a city to see if they are suitable for residential use.
spaces are left vacant in cities around the world, automation could
help decide how to best replace them.
suggest where vacant sites can With housing shortages around the world, such developments
could help cities more efficiently plan.
be converted for a new purpose.

REWILDING Since the COVID-19 pandemic, the concept of rewilding has gained
renewed attention and importance. As lockdowns and restric-
Increased efforts in rewilding is a direct aftereffect of the pandem-
ic that will continue to grow as people prioritize being outside and
tions prompted people to reconnect with nature and seek outdoor look to nature to help address mental health challenges. This trend
spaces, there has been a growing recognition of the mental and could benefit people and companies in multiple ways, such as by
physical health benefits of green spaces and natural environ- reducing long-term costs like air purification and lowering water
ments. Rewilding efforts, which emphasize restoring and preserv- use. Restored ecosystems can also act as a natural barrier that
ing ecosystems, are seen as a way to address some of the planet’s developing cities and economies could look to use for protection
inherent environmental challenges, and to build more resilient from climate change effects. Interest in their use will affect urban
and sustainable communities. planning and structural engineering of areas within cities where
WHAT IT IS
people want to spend their time.
Cities globally have been incorporating some of these concepts
Urban planners, designers, into their urban landscape. In Singapore, towering, artificial Companies that prioritize nature may also want to capitalize on
“supertrees” serve both aesthetic and ecological functions. These this demand by encouraging similar rewilding efforts in the areas
engineers, and architects structures are covered in a variety of plants, and the vertical they inhabit. Eventually, we could see sponsorships for rewilded
gardens create microhabitats for insects and birds, enhancing areas crop up just as we see parks and roads sponsored by groups
are using nature-inspired local flora biodiversity. The vertical gardens and elevated positions wanting to make a statement. But the type of rewilding that’s right
interventions to restore natural of the supertrees also attract birds, providing roosting sites and
potential nesting areas.
for both companies and geographic areas should be entertained on
a case-by-case-basis because each area will have different needs.
processes and environments in Elsewhere, startups are focusing on increasing and enhancing
As leaders work to prioritize which needs should be met first, ex-
pect some tension among residents, developers, and local officials.
cities. Besides being good for the trees. Living Carbon is experimenting with genetically modified
trees designed to capture more carbon and absorb greater quanti-
ecosystem, these enhancements ties of heavy metals from the soil than their natural counterparts.
are increasingly in demand by And GoPlant.me is leveraging the principles of crowdsourcing

to encourage financial support and volunteerism for urban tree
consumers. planting initiatives.

REGENERATIVE
PRACTICES

ADAPTIVE Repurposing existing buildings, a sustainable practice, reduces

construction waste by up to 40% and cuts the carbon emissions
Second-life projects can help reinvigorate areas of urban decay—
and could also become a major factor to plan for and consider on
REUSE AND
associated with new construction and building material produc- the front end of a project. This would shift the design process to
tion. Increasing interest in reuse can be found around the world: include planning for both today’s and tomorrow’s space, which
from the AMP Centre in Sydney, which was one of the first upcy- could ultimately lead to a new service offering. It could also mean
DECONSTRUCTION cled buildings; to a Dutch engineer’s efforts to recycle and reuse
all materials in a 14-story office tower; to decommissioned wind
continual projects that require a partner or project manager dedi-
cated to them for life, beyond facilities personnel.
turbine blades in Ireland finding new life as footbridges. Such proj-
ects could be aided by studies using AI to analyze what is inside a With global office vacancy rates increasing and as remote work
WHAT IT IS
building or structure to know what those materials could be used becomes the norm, office vacancies are expected to keep growing,
for in the future. leaving an increasing number of empty office spaces. Converting
As urban decay threatens these vacant offices serves a dual purpose: It addresses the vacan-
Beyond AI, other technologies are supporting this effort—specif- cy issue and tackles shortages for other uses including housing. At
many cities, developers and ically sensors and digital twins. These tools are being used to the same time, it also promotes upcycling and reduces construc-
make real-time adjustments as these buildings grow or change, tion waste while cutting construction costs and time. Remodeling
practitioners are giving new life and can also be helpful in maintaining structural integrity, and for can be a cost savings mechanism until items are uncovered that
to often-abandoned buildings knowing where to place additional support. As municipalities are
frequently starting to require new developments to have a decon-
were not originally planned for. With new forms of models and AI,
these hurdles could become things of the past.
and areas—converting them into struction plan, these models could be helpful in the long run.
livable and workable areas and Adapting interior spaces can also help give buildings a second life.
One compelling option for abandoned office buildings is verti-
spaces. cal farming. Another is converting offices to other uses: A study
by NAIOP has identified medical offices and labs as promising
candidates for office conversions, as they have less remote work
potential. Several firms are using AI to model out which of these
conversions would meet economic and infrastructure constraints.
This shift, if it continues, will impact the design of building sys-
tems to allow for greater flexibility.

METAMATERIALS Metamaterials are smart materials that are enabled with var-
ious technologies; they can self-heal, self-assemble, change
Using a single material and a single 3D printing process, this tech-
nology has the potential to transform the construction industry by
color, become lighter, or regulate temperature. Stimuli-respon- enabling structures that adapt to changing conditions.
sive materials, such as shape memory polymers, are flexible
sheets that can continuously change shape under external The longevity of built elements will become even more important
forces like electromagnetic or thermomechanical stimuli, with of a consideration as buildings can potentially have multiple—and
the ability to return to their original form. These metamaterials longer—lives. With new, more responsive materials, even stagnant
promise to create adaptable structures that respond to their elements and furnishings can take on a second life, which gives
environment, such as self-healing concrete for autonomous a space more functionality and use. These metamaterials will
WHAT IT IS repairs and smart windows and building facades that adjust to also change the performance standards for roadways and other
weather conditions, enhancing energy efficiency.
essential infrastructure, and can be used to protect structures
Emerging materials are on the Researchers have contributed much to these new types of ma- that provide water and other necessary resources. Developing and
terials lately. Researchers from Boston University have created integrating more metamaterials should be a priority, especially for
horizon that are notable for their a new kind of material that blocks sound while allowing for regions that lack stability, as they’ll help protect against extreme
airflow, which could transform building facades in urban and conditions and allow infrastructure to maintain itself. This could
responsive and programmable noisy areas. Researchers at the University of Central Florida be a cost saving for many areas that currently lack manpower
nature, along with capabilities have developed a new textile that changes color and appear-
ance on demand. And 3D printing and additive manufacturing
during construction and inclement weather.
that enable greater sustainability continue to offer many inroads for metamaterials, including a
breakthrough from MIT researchers to 3D print materials that
Moreover, as more people move to urban environments and growth
continues, noise is increasingly a factor. As acoustic comfort be-
and self-repair. can sense and react to environmental changes. comes more elusive, metamaterials can play a key role by chang-
ing the comfort rating of spaces based on unique stimuli. While
Additive manufacturing has even built an entire house: The
new products are manufactured that include metamaterials, the
BioHome3D, constructed by the University of Maine, is a 3D
printed house that uses scrap lumber, sawdust, and construc- price point will initially increase. But the enhancements the tech-
tion debris, combined with biopolymers sourced from plants, nology brings to these spaces will be very valuable going forward.
animals, bacteria, and fungi to create 3D printed wood. Tak-
ing innovation further, 4D printing enables 3D printed smart
materials to respond to external stimuli by expanding, con-
tracting, bending, and more. These materials find applications
in self-assembling furniture and regenerative systems for
infrastructure, like self-repairing piping systems and bridges.

RESILIENT DESIGN Threats to a region often prompt new strategies for the built en-
vironment. Flood-prone areas like New Orleans and Maasbommel
Given the recent pandemic and ongoing climate change, provid-
ing safety and security in structures is top of mind. New forms of
in the Netherlands are responding by constructing amphibious resiliency, for both the design and construction of buildings, will
homes with buoyant foundations, allowing them to float during be expected to address the potential effects of war, severe storms,
floods while maintaining sewer and utility connections through wildfires, droughts, and rising sea levels. Managing and analyzing
flexible piping. Dutch company MVRDV’s Sea Level Rise Catalogue the weaknesses in a region will provide actionable recommenda-
explores other similar ideas, such as floating habitat islands, tions and strategies that can combat these future issues.
adaptive structures, and mixed-use high-rises on stilts. Inland
developments are addressing water surges with permeable ground In addition, resilient design can lead to significant cost savings
WHAT IT IS
coverings and rainwater buffers. by reducing the damage and economic disruptions caused by
disasters. By investing in resilient infrastructure and buildings,
New practices and technologies The devastating impact of earthquakes in places like Turkey, Syria, communities and businesses can avoid or minimize costly repairs
and recently Morocco underscores the importance of anti-seis- and downtime following a disaster. This stability is crucial for eco-
are helping us plan for future mic construction methods. Buildings are already using flexible nomic growth and investor confidence.
foundations and shock absorbers to withstand earthquakes, but
climate change and crises. New so called seismic invisibility cloaks, which use deflectors to pro- Eventually, public projects could increasingly mandate safety
of spaces as area residents require more stability. And with the
spaces for safety, respite, and tect buildings, making them appear “invisible” to seismic forces,
offer new avenues. And where cities are sinking, there’s a need growing focus on mental health, resilient spaces that create areas
resiliency are also being created for new resilient solutions like artificial recharge and deep soil to de-stress could become a basic infrastructure requirement—as
essential as electricity and water are today. This shift could change
mixing, requiring careful planning and investment. Scientists are
to promote better health and also studying lightweight building materials and foundations to building codes and planning, and be helpful in developing areas.
wellness. reduce the risk of subsidence.
Resilient design also encompasses creating spaces for respite.

Many workplaces are piloting emotion-sensing technology to
understand the mental state of their employees, and finding ways
to create places for them to decompress—a field that researchers
are also studying in educational spaces. A new patent for furniture
looks to use sensors that can tell users when they are stressed
and should take a break.

ADDRESSING Homeownership costs are soaring around the globe, and there’s
not enough housing to meet demand. A Moody’s Analytics study
Housing conversions will be a prime focus in the built environment
for the next several years. Attainable housing—residential units
HOUSING
found the US is grappling with its lowest housing availability in that are affordable for a wide range of people, especially those with
30 years. In many countries, housing costs are outpacing income middle-income levels—will also help address social issues. But
growth, resulting in a severe shortage of affordable options. By as civil engineers continue to be tapped to study what could be
SHORTAGES 2030, the World Bank predicts that 3 billion people will require
new access to adequate housing.
developed, these types of data mining platforms become more rel-
evant. More adaptable and responsive construction practices and
studies are needed, and businesses and companies can help them
To facilitate new housing construction, cities are exploring rezon- scale by educating stakeholders in their region and providing
WHAT IT IS ing or “upzoning” policies. Japan’s flexible zoning and incentives case studies to try new forms of implementation. As investors and
have increased affordable housing through effective supply man- banks look to place their capital with more responsible companies,
With rising homelessness and agement. Vienna’s social housing model strives to offer quality, those that focus on solutions will be seen as places for goodwill
affordable homes to all residents; over 60% of its population are investments. Such funding will bring stability to areas that have
housing shortages around the in municipally-supported apartments, reducing inequality and seen exponential growth of people experiencing homelessness, or
promoting social integration.
globe, cities and companies are are trying to develop strategies for residents becoming unhoused
due to unforeseen conditions. Adequate housing is a foundation
Innovative data mining is also crucial for new urban planning.
creating new forms of housing. Yeme Architects’ Community Data Platform helps identify defi-
for stable employment and economic participation. When people
have secure and affordable homes, they are more likely to engage
ciencies in British neighborhoods, information developers can
effectively in the workforce—and contribute to overall economic
use for deciding whether more schools, shops, or green spaces are
growth and stability.
needed. MySidewalk, a comprehensive community data library,
reveals insights from various data sets, including the US Census
and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to address issues
like healthy food access and income inequality, guiding targeted
solutions for land development.
Supply chain disruptions and higher labor costs exacerbate the

housing affordability problem. A possible solution is what ICON and
14Trees are doing by leading 3D home printing construction tech-
nologies, potentially paving ways to reduce costs and emissions.

REGENERATIVE Companies are exploring alternatives to traditional materials that

are more sustainable than their counterparts. The K-Briq, created
Regenerative design goes beyond reducing harm to actively
improving the environment. This approach aligns with growing
DESIGN
by UK-based startup Kenoteq, is an eco-friendly brick made from consumer and stakeholder expectations for companies to be not
90% construction waste; it matches the appearance and weight of just environmentally neutral but positively impactful. The built
regular bricks but emits just 10% of the carbon and provides im- environment is becoming more than just what it can house: New
proved insulation. Berlin startup Made of Air developed an organic spaces, structures, products, and buildings are becoming more
waste-based, carbon-negative bioplastic, storing the equivalent responsible to the community where they reside. That benefits
of about two tons of carbon dioxide for every ton of plastic. The everyone: Companies that embrace regenerative design often lead
bioplastic can be used in building facades, furniture, interiors, in innovation, and by adopting regenerative practices, they can
WHAT IT IS
transport, and urban infrastructure, sequestering carbon dioxide ensure the long-term availability of the resources they rely on. This
and aiding in climate change mitigation. approach also reduces dependency on external and potentially un-
Comprising sustainable and stable sources, mitigating risks associated with resource scarcity
Plantd’s proprietary technology transforms rapidly growing pe- and environmental degradation.
circular design, regenerative rennial grass into carbon-negative structural panels for walls and
roofs materials that are stronger and more moisture resistant As more regions push for carbon sequestration requirements and
design includes spaces, than competitive products. Developed by MIT chemical engineers, energy resilience, they will start to prioritize these products and
structures, products, real estate 2DPA-1 is a self-assembling, lightweight polymer that’s stronger
than steel, offering versatile applications for building materials
materials that give back as well. They can start with methods that
offer respect on a cultural level and do not have to become ho-
practices, and places that are and structures. Norwegian startup Carbon Crusher repairs roads mogenized. Tax incentives will surely become one path forward to
with recycled asphalt and a plant-based adhesive, which is faster, accelerate this practice, which can help with further research and
working to give back to the cost-effective, and carbon-sequestering. development within the built environment industry.
community they sit within and Dutch startup Energy Floors utilizes kinetic harvesting, or energy
benefit the environment. scavenging, to capture energy from mechanical motion, like foot
traffic, converting it into electricity for diverse indoor and outdoor
applications. Researchers are also exploring new types of furni-
ture that use algae that can produce energy through a grow light
at night.

SCENARIOS
SCENARIO YEAR 2050
Amphibious Cities
The gentle sound of water moving has become quite common in Singapore, Helsinki, Jakarta, Miami, and Syd-
ney in 2050, and it’s not because its residents are relaxing by the water—rather, water is rising and falling over
their homes. Embracing the fact that climate change was unavoidable, these cities were some of the first to
implement mixed-use amphibious areas, ultimately leading to completely amphibious cities.
These areas started out as regular neighborhoods but were built using modular components that, as the wa-
ters rose, allowed portions of buildings to be submerged without needing to be relocated. In fact, most of the
buoyancy comes from the walking spaces under the buildings, which started off as crawl spaces and became
an underground tunnel system connecting the amphibious sectors. Above the water, kinetic harvesting wave
generators power the areas and have become their own form of public art. Most residents have porches on top
of their homes now, so when they venture out for fresh air, they can sit and take in the expansive oceanic view. It
works out well for everyone—except some local governments. Many of these amphibious cities face property tax
debates with local authorities, seeing as there is now less land or property to tax.

AUGMENTED
PRACTICES

SENSORIAL Cities like San Diego are experimenting with using 3D billboards
and holographic displays to create more visual immersion on
Visual engagement in the built environment can have the same
effect as it does on social media: It prolongs the retention of the
ELEMENTS
sidewalks, retail fronts, and around the city. Individual companies memory of that moment, which could help boost desire to return
are exploring their options too: brands like Nike and Coach have to those places. As many are looking for ways to draw employees,
utilized massive 3D billboards for promotional campaigns in Tokyo visitors, and residents back into the built environment, these
and London, and McDonald’s used a weather-responsive billboard types of immersive experiences can provide an answer.
in the UK for personalized ads.
But there are many other benefits as well. Shared, immersive
Artist Refik Anadol is taking this visual, sensorial immersion to experiences form social cohesion, and offer branding and cultural
WHAT IT IS another level. He gained fame for using AI in a Museum of Modern engagement that extends beyond traditional community events.
Art installation that projected shapeshifting images from the New They can be bolstered through shared data, which offer ways to
Technology is allowing for York museum’s vast art collection onto a 24-foot screen. This kind curate the content based on who is in the room, which can make
of transition to increasingly kinetic places and spaces is also seen these experiences even more meaningful. As wearable technology
more immersive experiences in architecture, where building parts can move without compro- scales, and users opt in to share their data, this new information
mising integrity, as they respond to changing human and environ- provides fodder for community content and preferences.
and design within the built mental conditions. The Al-Bahr towers in Abu Dhabi is an example:
On the flip side, regulation for visual safety and viewers’ data
environment. This includes 3D The buildings have a protective skin of 2,000 glass elements that
automatically adjust based on sunlight, offering sustainability privacy needs to be considered. People passing through public
billboards and other types of benefits as well. spaces should be made aware if their presence and their data is
being used to generate the art, and the art should be representa-
digital signage and art. A recent sensory exhibit in Australia looks to move past the visual tive of all as well.
into touch and play, highlighting ways spaces can be more inclu-
sive for those who are a part of the neurodivergent community.
Many retail centers are also looking to infill their vacant spaces
with these multi-sensory experiences that use interactive screens
to display art and color. Recent displays at the retail show NRF had
Samsung displays where you could hear coffee being poured and
smell donuts.

AUTOMATED From optimizing traffic planning to ensuring efficient code check-

ing for building permits, city officials and developers are harness-
Automation is already part of urban planning and development,
which means that it will increasingly play a larger role in other
DESIGN
ing AI to automate the ways urban spaces can be smarter and steps of the process, from design to construction. Already, auto-
more sustainable. They’re also using AI to automate understand- mating multiple parts of the design process and overall project is
ing of future damage and aging infrastructure. The Korea Institute becoming more normalized. For companies and industry affiliates,
of Civil Engineering and Building Technology has created D.N.A. they should expect some portion of their process to be automated
(Data, Network, and AI) technologies for forecasting bridge wear soon, if it hasn’t been already. The new tools increase efficiency
and aging, to facilitate proactive and possibly automated upkeep. and actually do not stifle creativity: They let built environment pro-
In a similar vein, data science company Concrete.ai’s system al- fessionals see multiple iterations they may not have considered.
WHAT IT IS
lows for the automation and optimization of concrete mixes, with
a specific focus on reducing carbon emissions. When partnered with augmented forms of construction, automa-
AI integration is increasingly tion can help scale built environment projects to grow faster, pro-
AI is also being used to accelerate and improve the construction vided that the funding is in place. Clients will ultimately need to
prevalent, from automating life cycle. It can automate deliveries and source materials more provide more data for these types of projects, and the practitioners
efficiently, which helps with construction execution planning and will need to understand and iterate through the process faster.
the design practice and updating of construction sequences. Software company IFS offers These changes ultimately require more reliance on technology—
tools, enhancing iterations planning and scheduling optimization products using AI to ensure
real-time construction schedule optimization and on-time project
not necessarily leading to a reduction in staff but an increase in
augmentation practices. This will push traditional design process
of drawings, and generating completion, while Hypar automates designs by providing a cloud- thinking, something that the entire built environment could take a
based platform for integrating predesigned systems into projects. moment to consider.
specifications and purchase
AI’s impact on automating design can also be seen in other ways.
orders to synthesizing customer AI tools like Maket.ai and Archi.ai are helping to automate plans
insights and enabling decisions and design ideas. WINT, or Water Intelligence, is combining AI and
IoT to manage water flow and promptly detect anomalies, en-
on sustainable implementation hancing water conservation in construction. And two Florida Tech
researchers—Hamidreza Najafi and Benjamin Kubwimana—have
processes for construction and published a paper proposing a new method for optimizing build-
manufacturing. ing energy models (BEMs) using Python EnergyPlus for energy
optimization, which would be of benefit to MEP engineers.

METAVERSE Metaversal technologies include any technology that augments

the physical world, and collaboration is one of the main ways many
Use of the metaverse for the built environment is not for living but
for experiencing elevated physical interactions. Virtual tourism, al-
ENABLING companies are looking to harness the metaverse for the built envi- ready in progress, can be augmented through this technology, with
ronment and design process. Some are using virtual reality (VR) for cities, sites, and other experiences being built in the metaverse.
immersive design experiences, while others are experimenting with For cities looking to attract new residents, they could offer pre-ex-
using augmented reality (AR) to overlay digital information onto the perience city living before a family moves to a new home. For
physical world, aiding architects, engineers, and designers in 3D developers, this try-before-you-buy experience in the metaverse
will become more important as new properties compete with one
visualization. The RAD Lab at the University of Miami is using mixed
another, and the higher the fidelity, the more likely it will resonate
WHAT IT IS reality to offer immersive experiences for its architecture students
with potential tenants. This will also require firms to continue
and enable innovative design collaborations in the metaverse. In the
to expand their BIM models with more realistic modeling, which
While the metaverse is still commercial world, Hyve-3D is integrating virtual reality and holo-
could create larger file sizes and extend the project timeline. Firms
graphic displays, enabling user interaction with the full project for
could look for ways that other technologies like AI could assist
up in the air—literally and review and collaboration without a headset. in preventing these complications, or work to reuse components
figuratively—many architects In 2021, the metaverse’s top benchmark was enabling users to
already in the metaverse to their advantage. As public projects go
before communities and other decision-makers, digital twins in
and designers are exploring the overcome real-life obstacles, including disabilities, allowing them
to experience places and spaces that they previously could not. That
the metaverse could become a requirement for approval and vot-
ing. For the industry itself, metaversal technology offers education
possibilities of what they can main purpose now extends to others, such as, letting art lovers expe-
opportunities and a more extensive global reach that can help
rience museum exhibitions via AR and VR from afar. Cities are also
create within it and figuring out using the metaverse to enable safety and creativity. Tuvalu aims to
firms achieve their upskilling and diversity goals.
how to enable collaboration and become the first digital nation by re-creating itself in the metaverse
to safeguard its culture and society amid ongoing threats from
accessibility. rising sea levels and climate change. And Zaha Hadid Architects cre-
ated “Liberland Metaverse,” a virtual unrecognized libertarian state
featuring the firm’s signature architectural style marked by curves
and rounded corners.

INCLUSIVE Enhancing accessibility in public spaces involves working to

understand and accommodate diverse neurological and physio-
As cities look to prevent urban decay, providing greater accessibil-
ity will increase resident satisfaction and use of spaces. For now,
DESIGN
logical conditions. It can also entail designing public spaces to most of the technologies are app-based, but greater accessibility
enable greater mobility and creating novel apps like South Korea’s would be achieved without the need for an app. Updates could
“Dagachi Naranhi” and France’s SonarVision to help visually im- also lead to the redesign of codes and governing statutes that
paired residents navigate their spaces. impact how places and spaces are laid out and designed. In an
aging world, older demographics will only continue to push for this
Aging is included here. The World Health Organization has released type of inclusivity, which can impact the products created to be
guidelines for age-friendly cities, covering key domains like hous- incorporated into spaces and the infrastructure needed to support
WHAT IT IS ing, transportation, and social inclusion; this in turn is driving civ- those products. More inclusive living centers will become more at-
il engineers to enhance accessibility with wider sidewalks, ramps, tractive as the aging population continues to grow, which will force
Inclusiveness has become a top elevators, and improved senior transportation. Brunel University developers to consider new unit types, new forms of retail spaces,
London, in collaboration with Meta and the University of Cam- and new places of care. At a time when mobility is increasing, in-
goal in this industry, and meeting bridge, is researching ways to enhance the metaverse’s accessibil- clusivity will need to be rethought along roadways, terminals, and
ity for disabled and older individuals.
the minimum requirements lodging locations.
The 2021 Built Environment Social Equity Survey, conducted in

is no longer palatable. Using collaboration with over two dozen organizations, found that 65% of
technology to address disabilities employees consider increasing racial and gender diversity in the
built environment—and within its leadership—important, reflect-
includes using more participatory ing a growing emphasis on an inclusive environment’s potential to
spur innovation and new solutions. The survey further highlights
design to include the community efforts to boost diversity in the built environment, such as youth
as part of the design process. education. An example is a pilot project in Riga that uses a game
environment for local exploration and architectural awareness for
kids to learn about the industry.

REAL-TIME DATA Due to the pandemic, companies are increasingly adopting

occupancy sensor technologies—including passive infrared and
Data has always mattered, but it has taken on an increased im-
portance. Now, collecting data can lead to better-informed deci-
COLLECTION FOR ultrasonic and utilization tools to inform space planning and
cleaning, as well as to enhance workplace safety and experience.
sions and provide a way to model potential actions before finan-
cially committing to plans. But collecting data the right way also
DECISION-MAKING JLL offers a tech service using data analytics for insight-driven
real estate decisions, improving areas like energy efficiency and
matters. Understanding sensor technology will become a critical
factor for companies in the built environment industry, along with
AND PLANNING tenant satisfaction. Digital models and other tools are enabling
real-time decisions, but these require built-in sensors and other
properly integrating them into projects. Developers and retailers
can use sensor technology to implement better amenities and
visualization tools to provide the data to model. Gensler’s Graph direct targeted use and interactions within their space, and also
WHAT IT IS
product suite is an example: Its spatial analytics toolkit analyzes in preparing for aging infrastructure. This type of preparedness
and visualizes data from various sources to provide insights for could also help allocate resources during times of crisis or climate
Data collection through sensors design and space planning. change shifts, meaning cities can and should use this type of data
collection and plan now to prepare for the future. When people and
and other platforms is now This data collection and modeling applies to urban planning products are enabled to contribute their data for planning purpos-
as well. Rotterdam, Netherlands-based MVRDV has developed
being used for cost estimation, RoofScape, a tool using the growing ecosystem of urban municipal
es, healthier spaces and products can result. Firms should prepare
for more sensor integration and data analyzation on both the front
to understand use and behavior data to suggest concrete use cases for underutilized rooftops. For
civil engineering, UK water utility company Anglian Water offers a
and back end of projects going forward.
patterns, and to make more real-time mapping system, which utilizes geospatial technology to
prioritize where work is needed. In the system’s first six months of
informed real estate and built operation, it reduced blockages by over 51%, cleaned 112 kilometers
environment decisions. of sewers, and removed 8 tons of debris.
Parking is one area heavily invested in data capturing and model-

ing. Visionful, a US startup, provides cloud-based predictive ana-
lytics for parking and also includes a mapped database for faster
crime response. France-based Mytraffic uses advanced analytics
to provide location insights such as space utilization and traffic
management, real estate portfolio performance, and potential
locations of business expansions.

SCENARIOS
SCENARIO YEAR 2025
Instant Permitting
Getting building permits used to take weeks if not months. But now, thanks to automated design and real-time
optimization, they can take minutes—that is, if the residents approve and the digital model says it’s ready to be
built. The shift in permitting was partially due to the increased use of registered digital BIM models, which went
to the city as soon as they were started, allowing cities to weigh in on potential code issues ahead of time. This
optimization led to more of a collective dialogue between firms, designers, clients, and cities; it’s been especial-
ly helpful when cities needed to build their own projects, as the models can factor in when construction teams
might have downtime due to the permits submitted. Looking to ensure residents’ satisfaction, cities have also
implemented digital town halls where the digital twins of the potential projects are displayed and voted on by
residents. Then, residents feel they are part of the process, and will weigh in on the public infrastructure needed.
City inspections now include deconstruction plans, changing demolition permits, which are actually the per-
mits that are hardest to obtain.

SMART CITY
IMPLEMENTATIONS

SMART BUILDINGS Building automation continues to give operators greater control

over smart building systems. Companies like ABB are selling
Building and space automation continues to focus on efficient
systems. As new regulations are handed down, the presence of
systems that offer control over HVAC and building energy man- these systems could separate legacy buildings from newer ones—if
agement; they’ve brought a range of scalable automation and more efficient buildings are prioritized, urban decay could fes-
energy control to the United Arab Emirates, with a plan to continue ter should those buildings not occupy space in downtown areas.
to deploy its offerings in other places over the next three years. Emerging economies and regional cities could capitalize on this
Facilio also expanded into the Australian market, deploying its AI to bypass their neighbors if they have the needed infrastructure in
SaaS platform to help with monitoring energy efficiency and fault place. For economic stimulation, the development and retrofitting
detection and diagnosis. of smart buildings drive growth by creating jobs and stimulating
WHAT IT IS
demand for new technologies and services.
Platforms like nClarity offer 24/7 real-time monitoring, using
The buildings we occupy are cloud-based analytics to look for anomalies and performance deg- In addition, smart buildings generate valuable data that can be
radation, as well as finding ways to mitigate issues. Typically these used to enhance building management, user experience, and
becoming further automated as systems have been cost affordable only for large-scale buildings, inform future development. Landlords and developers should con-
but Siemens debuted a new hub that would allow for its IoT-based tinue to prioritize these types of buildings, as this type of automa-
smart technology is incorporated. system to work with small buildings and even office campuses. tion will allow them to tightly manage space occupation, which is
Smart buildings, integrating ProSentry and Senet’s new partnership will offer smart building
monitoring for everything from gas leaks to mouse traps.
a growing concern. It could be useful for future lease and tenant
negotiations as well, as they can predict the performance of their
advanced technologies and These smart building management systems are also looking to
future spaces. This could also help tenants, by giving them the
very granular data they expect, including the performance of their
automation for enhanced manage space. Tenantcube helps landlords manage their prop- space when compared to other units in the building and their area.
erties by helping them automate listing and renting. Platforms
efficiency and user experience, like the one offered by ApartX also increase automation by using
are emerging as a transformative biometrics to automate operations and Smart Residence’s app
that allows residents to control and reserve amenities in the
trend in the built environment building. A continued focus on bringing workers back to the office
has spurred an increase in technology use for visual and auditory
sector. privacy and lighting—including bulbs that help circadian rhythms
and other technologies that can automatically detect Covid’s pres-
ence by smell.

SMART HOME Recently, smart homes and apartments have seen an influx of
newly connected and automated integrations. The open source
Most people spend a lot of their time at home, and in-home smart
technology continues to change the way people interact with their
AUTOMATION AND
interoperability standard Matter became a major focus toward environment. As the world’s population gets older, integrating
the end of 2023 and continued in 2024. It would allow for in- aging-in-place technology into the home will become more im-
home devices to control multiple connected components. Other portant—whether in apartments, shared living spaces, or tradi-
MONITORING smart home technologies include auto-arming alarms, ovens that
allow for livestreamed cooking, sensors that can have fans track
tional single-family homes. New monitoring devices, which may
be covered by insurance in the future, could offer more connected
your face, heaters that learn to optimize energy consumption, care. Concerns for energy stability could lead to a greater need for
and Kohler’s Stillness bath, which uses light and fog to create a renewable energy sources for these homes, which could shift in-
WHAT IT IS
soothing environment. Kohler also launched its voice-controlled frastructure and planning needs. This would also affect zoning and
bidet that has a self-cleaning mode. Lighting controls continue to need to be welcomed by the residents. For multifamily apartment
Homes are continuing to become improve with Phillips’ Hue E14 bulb—which includes over a million buildings and complexes, automated systems and AI in smart
shades of programmable white light to choose from—and Nano- buildings streamline maintenance and operations, reducing costs
more helpful and personalized leaf’s Sense+ Controls, which learn when to turn off lights based and improving performance. These smart homes can also offer
through smart technology. on a person’s daily activity. This dovetails into a continuing trend
in smart homes: monitoring for safety. Elsi’s Smart Floor can track
curated personalization in new forms: through smart windows and
new connected devices, they can bring community cohesion and
if a person has fallen, and MIT created a monitor that can track bridge the gap for families that live in different places. This can
how Parkinson’s disease has progressed based on the afflicted also be utilized in co-living complexes and neighborhoods where
person’s gait. residents want to share experiences.
In many homes and apartments, noise is a top complaint; it may

soon be addressed by a new plasma-based silencing technology.
Another chief challenge is space: in response, Ori, a provider of
multifunctional, robotic-power spaces, has launched a pocket
office that can expand and collapse to turn one space into two.
And to increase security, researchers have filed a new patent to
use doorbell cameras and other CCTV cameras to track and predict
criminal activity in an area. This includes Lockly’s Visage, a smart
lock that can store 100 face profiles to allow entry to a home.

SMART PARKING The structures and roadways in smart cities continue to provide
opportunities for both data collection and improved resident
Finding a place to park has always been a challenge in major
cities, but new technology can alleviate this concern. It can also
AND ROADWAYS
experiences. Eventually, traffic lights could be used to monitor increase a sense of safety in more remote locations, with the im-
congestion and report when accidents occur, according to a recent plementation of these new traffic signals. Countries with a more
patent. The proposed patent is also examining how traffic lights mobile populace should prioritize these types of technologies to
PREDICTABILITY can connect to emergency services should an accident occur.
Cities are exploring solutions for intersection congestion: for
enable better experiences on the roads and create higher safety
standards. This trend could also impact traffic patterns, where
instance, Seoul is implementing a combination of AI, lidar, and local jurisdictions might need to create plans, and then commu-
CCTV at an intersection to enhance traffic signaling for improved nicate any changes through connected devices and autonomous
WHAT IT IS
safety. Parking spaces—whether in garages or on the street—are vehicles. The connected monitoring devices and traffic lights could
also data points that allow for potential visibility into available ultimately take away emergency vehicle drivers’ worry about cross-
Traffic congestion is one of the spaces within smart cities. Southwest of Denver, Colorado is testing through intersections, at least when autonomous vehicles
ing interlocking Smart Pavement slabs that use Wi-Fi and detect scale. In the meantime emergency personnel can gain a view into
top concerns many municipalities when a crash occurs, which will then alert emergency services. In a the current condition of their destination site they are going along
hope to address with smart recent study in the International Journal of Grid and High Perfor-
mance Computing, researchers proposed an IoT-AIPS system that
with how to get there.
technology. They are also can predict parking spot availability to help reduce wait times for
finding parking. HaydenAI took this a step further and, in collab-
implementing new technology oration with New York City, used the technology to detect illegal
that can help generate less parking in bus lanes.
carbon dioxide with more

efficient traffic patterns.

UBIQUITOUS Sensors have become ubiquitous. In smart cities, IoT sensors

and devices are embedded to collect data for operational use
IoT connection is increasing the amount of data available to smart
cities, and the industry is currently prioritizing water, traffic, and
SENSOR
and predictive models. To fuel this connectivity, there have been resident experience and safety. As sensors in the built environ-
several new network deployments, like Amazon Sidewalk, which ment begin to share more data between themselves, this will
aims to create a low-power, long-range network from IoT devices. In create greater opportunities for managing increasingly granular
DISTRIBUTION Scotland, the Aberdeenshire Council is trying out North’s IoT Accel-
erator Pack program, which will reveal insights on building health,
needs within the city. This also presents greater data security
needs, and the necessity for residents to opt in to data collection.
social housing, water monitoring, waste management, air quality, Without residents’ consent and understanding, a pervasive sense
and road surface temperature. of fear will arise over how their data will be used. Cities imple-
WHAT IT IS
menting these sensors should create robust campaigns to dispel
As connected data collection in smart cities has increased, so has concerns, and create plans to deal with potential sensor system
Sensors are being further resident engagement. In Israel, Nexar and MuniAI are operation- hacks. New talent may be necessary for integrating the design of
alizing IoT sensors and citizen feedback to alert city workers to these sensors into projects; they also require an increased amount
integrated into the built maintenance issues. In the UK, Visual Solutions launched a crowd- of IT investment in the office and on-site. Ultimately, sensors will
sourced measurement service that uses mobile Wi-Fi signals to
environment to collect data that sense and count crowds. Sensors and AI are being integrated into
provide a more continuous awareness of project status, which
would solve a persistent client need.
can be used in predictive models safety vests for construction workers to reveal their location and
excessive body heat, or integrate wearable detection methods to
and enable intensive and ongoing prevent people from being hit by cars.
monitoring. Other companies are continuing to use sensors to predict air

quality and pollen distribution, like Norwegian startup Airmine.
Companies are also embedding sensors into IoT predictive HVAC
systems to increase building performance and tenant experiences.
Water quality technology also increasingly uses sensors for mon-
itoring water and detecting lead and other toxins. In interior spac-
es, furniture and even walls are becoming embedded with sensors
for data collection. A patent for a new office chair uses sensors in
combination with more reactive fabrics and materials to tell when
the occupant is stressed and needs to take a break.

DIGITAL TWIN Urban transportation has been a major user of digital twins, with
companies like ShapesAI using the technology to predict colli-
Digital twins and models are becoming an expectation within
the built environment. However, the players who will most bene-
PREDICTIVE PLANNING sions. Cities and countries are also leveraging these models to
predict when roads will need repair, and when traffic could occur.
fit from the technology are finding new ways to collect data that
these models can use to generate meaningful insights. They’ll be
AND PREVENTION Estonia is rewriting its road maintenance manual using digital
twins, and a new patent explores embedding sensors so that
able to identify potential issues and make informed decisions
even before issues arise or construction begins. The technology
MONITORING digital twins can predict settling and cracks in the road. In the
US, startup Citydata utilizes AI to collect census data to look for
also enhances the design process and improves communication
among project teams as they can model the repercussions of their
patterns in transportation and population movements. decisions. Many working in BIM models will need to elevate their
WHAT IT IS
current level of modeling to achieve a true digital twin; when the
Urban planning has also been affected. Los Angeles is creating a digital twins link to become a digital mesh, it will signify the next
Digital models are not new to digital twin of a neighborhood to test out decarbonization strate- evolution of this trend. When digital meshes become a reality for
gies, and new research from the University of Twente in the Nether- the built environment, that is when smart cities will truly become
the built environment industry. lands found that digital twins can help improve the efficiency of responsive and enabled. But this trend isn’t just for new or smart
planning and coordination in cities. This technology can be a boon
However, as they evolve, they to cities looking for new residents, which is what Miami is using
buildings: Local firms can leverage their on-the-ground locations
to start modeling older buildings, allowing them to have their own
are becoming more integral for its digital twin to do—helping them find schools and other ame-
nities when they are looking to move. Jacobs in the UK is using
digital twins.
upfront planning by enabling the digital twins to model potential floods to help communities know
where to place key infrastructure. For interior spaces, Matterport
constant flow of data about the recently launched Genesis, a generative AI that creates a digital
long-term visibility of a structure, twin of interior spaces to help property management teams make
design and utilization decisions about physical spaces. The Korte
building, or product’s life and use. Co., a US construction company, uses its data and digital twins in
preconstruction to model what changes to parameters will do to
costs and construction schedules.

ENABLED DEVICES Smart cities are leveraging multiple types of devices to monitor
and detect events. One example is a new camera from Vivotek that
Improving the quality of life is a fundamental part of the built envi-
ronment industry, and new technology makes that goal even easier
FOR URBAN
uses a vision-processing chip and platform called BrainChip to for professionals. Real-time monitoring can detect and respond
utilize edge computing. It also uses AI to identify gender and age to security threats or emergencies, ensuring the safety of citizens.
from video footage, even when people are wearing masks. Hailo Monitoring of utilities like water and electricity can also allow for
MANAGEMENT Technologies in Tel Aviv is also exploring smart cameras that use
edge AI processors for smart cities, security, retail, and other appli-
more efficient resource use and can help in early detection of is-
sues like leaks or outages. What will be key here is the interopera-
cations for analytics at the edge. bility of these devices, so that they can communicate and share in-
formation. If multiple competitors begin to take hold in one region,
WHAT IT IS Drones are now also bringing smart city capabilities to rural areas, future sharing of data could be problematic. Governments will
and a patent is exploring the potential for drone air and water need to carefully consider new regulations as the trend scales, and
New technologies such as edge monitoring. Light poles, like Voltpost, are transforming lamp posts any new guidelines should be coordinated among local, national,
into charging stations for drones and security monitoring stations; and international entities so that new devices can be compliant in
drones, connected cameras, and their cameras can also analyze images to determine if a pedestrian multiple regions. This will ultimately allow for more global interop-
is in distress. Other Smart Poles from Vitrulux are also incorporat-
novel communication systems ing voice assistants, which could help pedestrians with navigation.
erability and sharing of information, which could become crucial
during times of global crisis. Well-monitored cities will also attract
are being used to enhance urban In Boston, Soofa digital kiosks provide air quality updates through-
more businesses due to a better enabled environment and happi-
er, healthier residents.
management processes. out the city and can even suggest what activities are safe to do out-
side. Bettair in Spain uses a network of sensors to map and identify
pollution hotspots. In Houston, the city is using smart meters to
track water usage and monitor its water distribution system.
Trash and waste management systems in smart cities also contin-

ue to improve. In the UK, the Sunderland City Council is testing out
the use of solar-powered smart compactor bins. A recently filed
patent is exploring using sensors and AI to help plan more effi-
cient routes for garbage collection in cities, and for the detection
of waste bins in the street.

SCENARIOS
SCENARIO YEAR 2038
The New Way to Walk

On any given day in London, it is now quite common to see mobs of people gathering and walking down the
street. However, this isn’t your usual tourist crowd or flash mob. Instead, it’s due to Zwift’s route automation,
which directs residents to take certain routes throughout the city to optimize their route in real time. Such a
capability was attempted in 2023, with Transport for London’s initiatives aiming to fix traffic congestion and
address air pollution and climate issues, but it met heavy resistance after charges and fines were levied.
Most residents feel Zwift has taken this initiative to the next level in 2038, as it has allowed them to sync their
calendars, and it can also help them to gain access to public transportation and other amenities; the app then
tells them which route would be the most efficient for their time, cost, and carbon neutral goals based on their
day. The app also suggests the walking path that might best suit their health needs and that they might find
most pleasant. Users rely on its air quality alerts for the areas to avoid.
With more people walking, sidewalks have leveled up. They now incorporate new built-in resting pads; when
you need a break, the pads sense your fatigue and can fold up to create a place for you to sit and recharge your
wearables. A favorite sitting activity involves experiencing the rewilding forest through AR, learning about local
history and indigenous wildlife. This experience can be had on London’s autonomous public transportation, too,
which has become its own tourist attraction.

CONSTRUCTION
PRACTICES

MASS TIMBER Mass timber construction is scaling, and a wide swath of new
research indicates it can perform in extreme conditions and have
Mass timber construction will allow buildings to last longer and
perform better. With new exploration, the material can replace
CONSTRUCTION
sustainability benefits that were not previously known. In 2022, steel, act as a means to reduce material use and waste, increase
there were 139 mass timber buildings in the world eight stories or carbon capturing, and provide new design flexibility. While most
higher either complete, under construction, or proposed, according governments worldwide have yet to adopt wood-first laws, major
to the Council on Tall Buildings and Urban Habitat. economies are modernizing building codes, funding research, and
promoting sustainable forestry to advance mass timber construc-
There are potentially several environmental and financial benefits. tion. As it increases, this form of construction will continue to grow
Recent research shows mass timber panels’ inherent thermal as well. New regions looking to use this construction practice will
WHAT IT IS properties could possibly simplify or replace a building’s tradition- have to study supply chain stability, and it’s likely there will be
al HVAC system. Another study found wood can match concrete’s greater stability and faster adoption in mature industry regions
As one of the newer performance in thermal mass design. And when cross-laminated like Europe. For emerging markets, more mass timber construc-
timber is used to create a structural floor system, it could lower tion could mean new jobs in both the construction industry and
developments for more costs and possibly reduce the need for load-bearing walls and manufacturing.
columns, per research from Clemson University.
sustainable construction, mass Mass timber construction can also benefit users. Wood pro-
In practice, mass timber is moving into new sectors, like hospitali-
timber construction is gaining ty. DLRGroup collaborated with designers, architects, and other ex-
vides aesthetic beauty and mental health and wellness benefits.
Utilizing mass timber can also position a business as a leader
attention as many studies and perts to showcase a mass timber hotel prototype for the Marriott
group—the hotel meets its stringent sound insulation standards,
in innovative, sustainable construction methods, enhancing its
reputation and market appeal. The ability for new structural spans
projects consider using its has a lower carbon footprint than concrete, ensures structural also lends itself to enabling new design challenges and innovative
integrity, and aligns with the 2021 updated International Building
components in lieu of concrete Code for safety. And as the technology progresses, mass timber is
solutions to explore.
and steel. reaching new heights. At 284 feet, The Ascent in Milwaukee is the
world’s tallest mass-timber building and is fully compliant with
Milwaukee’s building codes, including fire safety.

NET-ZERO The 2022 Global Status Report for Buildings and Construction
report found that the building and construction sector’s energy
Net-zero construction plays a pivotal role in modern building prac-
tices due to its significant impact on climate change mitigation,
consumption and carbon dioxide emissions reached unprecedent-
CONSTRUCTION
energy efficiency, and sustainability. By aiming for a balance where
ed heights post-Covid, accounting for over 34% of global energy
the total amount of energy used by a building is roughly equal to
demand in 2021. Net-zero construction and techniques could help
the amount of renewable energy created on-site, these buildings
reduce this industry’s energy use, and there are already promising
examples like the Lola Mora Cultural Center in Argentina. The cen- drastically reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Additionally, net-ze-
ter is described as being net-zero with advanced energy-efficient ro construction often incorporates elements that enhance indoor
systems, such as wind turbines, solar panels, rainwater harvest- air quality and comfort, contributing positively to occupant health
ing, and natural ventilation, which will allow it to generate 20% and well-being.
WHAT IT IS more energy than it consumes.
Projects that are carbon neutral or even carbon negative are grow-
Net-zero construction is about Net-zero practices are moving into material development for the
built environment industry as well. Sweden’s SSAB has intro-
ing in number. As more projects utilize net-zero construction prac-
tices, they will need access to more renewable resources. Future
balancing carbon emissions duced its SSAB Zero recycled steel: rather than burning coal in the
process, this approach uses fossil-free electricity and hydrogen,
energy storage solutions that enable shorter durations for recharg-
ing batteries, vehicles, spaces, and equipment from renewable
during construction and over targeting near-zero emissions. There’s also a lot of potential in
the concrete industry, including CarbonCure, which strengthens sources promise a transformative future for urban construction.
the life of a project. This can be concrete by adding CO2. Currently, approximately 253 global cities have net-zero targets,
with half formulating plans. Many communities are also looking to
done through monitoring energy On the construction front, the electrification of construction machin-
ery is advancing rapidly due to improvements in battery technology.
become net-zero. They will have a growing need for sustainable in-
frastructure and collaboration as they seek out established goals.
consumption, as well as through Japanese-based Komatsu will soon roll out an electric excavator and
a fully electric compact wheel loader; this machinery offers signif-
what materials are used, how icant benefits such as enhanced air quality and noise reduction,
making it suitable for both indoor settings and urban areas.
the materials are produced, and Direct air capture (DAC) has emerged as another solution for build-
other carbon offset strategies. ings seeking net-zero. While the US Department of Energy is advo-
cating for DAC, the technology remains costly and energy-consum-
ing, which could pressure cities to invest further in the necessary
infrastructure. But the original form of DAC—sequestering carbon in
plants—is still an option. In one interesting case, Barcelona-based
TAKK Architecture completed a mobile garden designed to be relo-
cated to areas with the highest carbon emissions in the city.

ADDITIVE The option to use 3D printing technology is revolutionizing the

construction industry with notable examples around the world.
With a global demand for new homes and a need to convert aging
infrastructure into revitalized assets, additive manufacturing
CONSTRUCTION
Glasgow’s “active transport” bridge, the largest printed concrete offers solutions. For overpopulated cities or suburbs looking to
construction in the UK, showcases the potential for creating intri- expand, the technology could provide avenues to develop sus-
cate and unique infrastructural components in bridge construc- tainable neighborhoods quickly. This could lead to new ways for
tion. Dubai’s 3D printed office in the Emirates Towers highlights businesses to use additive manufacturing for repair, product man-
how this technology can save both time and money, and aligns ufacturing, and increasing construction speed. The compounds
with the city’s goal of having a quarter of all buildings 3D printed and materials that go in and come out of this construction type
by 2030. Telangana, India, is looking to blend cultural reverence will become increasingly important for the built environment. The
WHAT IT IS with innovation, by building the world’s first 3D printed Hindu fact that waste is becoming a targeted material, could form new
temple. Meanwhile, in Texas, ICON is partnering with Lennar and
circular business offerings as well.
The 3D and 4D printing of Bjarke Ingels Group to develop the largest 3D printed community
offering, which includes 100 homes. As additive manufacturing begins to generate more aesthetically
structures, materials, and But the technology is still evolving. Tech company RENCA has
pleasing materials, it will help acceptance. But as the technol-
ogy scales, it will disrupt many traditional forms of design and
buildings is becoming more of a pioneered the use of geopolymers for 3D printing entire houses,
construction, as it will offer new ways of creating and building.
and the EU-funded WOOL2LOOP project repurposed mineral wool,
norm. typically considered waste with low-recyclability, into geopolymer
Such changes can bring customizable diversity to regions and for
new homeowners, where they can choose from a menu of offer-
concrete for construction. Meanwhile, a research initiative at the
Missouri University of Science and Technology aims to develop an ings made just for them. And by localizing production for product
AI program that determines the best locally sourced materials for manufacturers, construction site selection could become more of
3D printed concrete. By testing a variety of fibers, including un- a focus.
conventional plant-based and recycled fibers, the program seeks
to enhance local sustainability, reduce construction costs, and
improve the efficiency and safety of military construction efforts.
Scientists have developed a new 3D printing technique that allows

them to control the cell structure and influence the final product
shape; though early in development, this sustainable, reusable
wood retains its original properties including strength and scent.
Researchers from Bath and Imperial College London introduced Ae-
rial Additive Manufacturing drones capable of 3D printing buildings.

INTERACTIVE Studies have found that most general contractors use minimal
automation for their subcontractor management processes. This
Project management during the construction process is time-con-
suming and laborious. Addressing the challenge of workforce
PROJECT
leads to data silos, and contractors lose out on potential improved depletion, new platforms replace time-losing work processes so
productivity, cost performance, and profitability. Autodesk Con- workers can focus on other needed workflows. More wearables
struction Cloud’s (ACC) 2020 acquisition of Pype introduced AI-pow- that allow for the monitoring and managing of workers can also
MANAGEMENT ered submittal logs, and now the company’s launch of AutoSpecs in
ACC can help streamline the construction processes for those just
increase worker safety, and subsequently impact the bottom line
of a company with reduced on-site injury claims. These wearables
starting down this road. could become more standardized and interoperable, which would
allow for more health management of the worker as well. Devices
WHAT IT IS On the front end of projects, management platforms for various
like these can not only prioritize on-site safety but also bridge
tasks, like CoConstruct’s integrated suite of construction estimat-
ing tools and STACK estimating software, are hitting the market. communication gaps, enabling real-time access to data and fos-
Project management tools that Join offers a platform that streamlines construction decision-mak- tering remote collaboration, leading to better project management.
With more immersive technologies, the jobsite can now become
allow for real-time monitoring ing by importing data from tools like Excel and letting users evalu-
ate the cost implications of preconstruction choices in real time. interconnected with the model back in the office, which could
and data transmission are For the building itself, management systems are not new. Howev-
allow for real-time drafting and designing coordination, replacing
RFIs and even submittals.
creating efficiencies in er, management systems that track efficiency are gaining ground.
Learnd, a UK startup, is offering a unified building management
construction. This includes the system platform that integrates with existing systems to enhance
energy efficiency and decrease carbon emissions.
platforms themselves, as well
New tools and platforms are also creating overlays that enhance
as wearables that project visual project management. Argyle is an AR application for job sites that
data for workers as they build. offers BIM visualization to prevent errors and ensure smooth project
progression without the need for Wi-Fi. GAMMA AR uses augmented
reality to overlay 3D BIM models on job sites. VSight is an AR-pow-
ered platform used by industrial workers for remote collaboration
and knowledge access, streamlining operations in over 100 coun-
tries. OnSiteXR is a mixed reality app for HoloLens 2 that aids in
attaching prefab building elements and records work using speech-
to-text and image capture.

SCENARIOS
SCENARIO YEAR 2031
Road Today, School Tomorrow

As with many developing countries, Kenya once struggled to balance building infrastructure over schools. The
country needed schools to educate workers, but getting schools built and roads to get there also needed work-
ers. This challenge persisted until the MIGA expanded its guarantees to help develop real-time monitoring for
additive roadways. Through a partnership between investors, COBOD International, and several universities,
they were able to create an offering that used real-time monitoring to know where roads would be most helpful,
but could also be additively-made to be weather resistant. Once trade routes were established, the roads them-
selves could be converted into materials to build new schools. Once the schools have been established for sev-
eral years, and repairs of the new roads become no longer feasible, the roads are recycled and ready for reuse for
water management or other necessary infrastructure. This has helped Kenya to continue to develop while also
managing some of the issues the country faces due to climate change.

SCENARIOS
SCENARIO YEAR 2040
Tag You Later!

“Day of Drafting,” or Tag Day as it was first called because it emerged in Germany, has become a phrase many
firms discuss when they talk about the history of construction documents. The combination of AI project man-
agement tools, AR drafting, and additive manufacturing combined in an unforeseen way to change the indus-
try in the early 2030s. New wearables for drafting allowed connected professionals the ability to draft in an AR
space; the design was then immediately run through an AI code check in the ConPro management platform,
and, if it passed, printed on-site immediately. Gone are the days of waiting for permits and the right site condi-
tions, thanks to the connected sensors on site. The sensors told the crew what was ripe for building on that day,
and then the component was drawn and printed immediately. The drone workers helped by then taking scans of
what was printed, comparing it to the model through the platform, and then asking the architect, engineer, and
designer to sign off on it. Because of this new form of building, at the end of the day, most construction workers
now sign off with, “Tag you later!”

MODULAR Health systems increasingly prefer modular and prefabricated con-

struction methods due to their speed and efficiency. That’s why M
At scale, modular construction would address much of the
renovation many cities will need to help prevent urban decay. As
CONSTRUCTION
Health Fairview St. John’s Hospital in Maplewood, Minnesota, used residents move from downtown areas, they are looking to mod-
modular expansion to swiftly add 16 extra beds in nine months; ular homes in suburban areas. Modular construction can offer
traditionally, that project would have taken 15 months. As a project complete customization and be shipped anywhere in the world,
director at the University of Pittsburgh Medical Center, Michael which, with a growing mobile population would be very attractive.
Schesler is overseeing the construction of a 17-story inpatient tower Communities may become more ephemeral, and prefabricated
that will use various prefabrication methods, with components neighborhood setups may need to be ready. While upfront costs
like walls and bathroom pods being made in a nearby warehouse. A can be higher, the rapid construction timeline offers quicker de-
WHAT IT IS notable feature is the preassembly of horizontal MEP distribution livery. With a growing unhoused population, modular units could
systems, which are prepared in the warehouse, transported, and
be used to add on to existing structures in a cost effective manner
Modularity has struggled to installed on-site. And even outside of hospitals, the ANNA Collection
is taking modular living to a new level as its prefabricated cabins
that would not hurt the building’s existing function or a multifam-
ily residence’s performa. It can also help minimize disruption when
scale within construction, but can be shipped anywhere.
spaces need to remain open—like emergency rooms.
has still continued to grow with The “polyroom” concept, developed by the French firm Cutwork,
aims to tackle the looming global housing shortage with modular
its technical precision to include construction. The company builds small modular units with green
spaces that can be swiftly assembled and reconfigured to adapt to
whole hospital suites that can be daily needs, making it ideal for rapid urban development. For furni-
shipped and plugged into a new ture, Ori specializes in robotic-powered space-saving solutions that
transform single-use areas into multifunctional spaces.
hospital building. Modular “jigsaw” roads, designed for rapid disassembly and
reassembly, offer urban areas an adaptive solution to fluctuating
traffic, construction demands, and emergency situations. CirculinQ,
a Netherlands-based company, utilizes recycled plastic blocks for
roads and pavements, efficiently managing water and showcasing
impressive durability. Carlo Ratti Associati has furthered this con-
cept with a modular street prototype, featuring hexagonal blocks
that can be quickly rearranged, transforming a busy road into a
community space like a basketball court.

AUGMENTED Cobots, the robotic coworkers, are becoming an established

presence on many job sites—and they come in all sizes and for
As labor continues to be a challenge, integrating robotic and aug-
mented processes can reduce the need for staff on-site. This can
CONSTRUCTION
multiple functions. San Francisco-based startup Canvas leverages be helpful in developing regions where workers are scarce, but they
robotics, AI and machine learning to enhance drywall finishing may need to consider partnering with companies to bring the tools
and painting. This compact robot, roughly the size of a kitchen and technology to the region. Augmented construction by way of
stove, is outfitted with laser scanners and operates on a vertical cobots could allow for continuous repair of aging infrastructure.
platform to navigate unfinished structures. Ken Robotech’s Tomo- While manufacturing already uses robotics in the production of
robo is a handheld tool designed to automate the repetitive task
many of its products, the built environment products may soon
of rebar tying in construction, enhancing efficiency and alleviating
need to contend with figuring out how to teach cobots how to
WHAT IT IS the physical burden on workers.
install their sometimes delicate products. Construction tolerances
Boston Dynamics has unveiled a substantial update to its Spot ro- will need to be updated as more cobots perform the tasks, either
The use of robots and other bot dog, by introducing advanced inspection workflows, enhanced negating the tolerance altogether or increasing them depending
interactions with humans, autonomous door manipulation, and on the task the cobot is performing. Lastly, while safety may in-
automated processes is changing a new vocal capability powered by ChatGPT and other AI models, crease in some areas, in others it may decrease with the use of the
construction practices and which can boost its efficiency and user-friendliness. The Ddog
project from MIT Media Lab combines Spot with a Brain-Computer
cobots, which could mean a change to insurance premiums.
reporting, reducing project Interface system, utilizing AttentivU’s wireless glasses to measure
brain activity and eye movements for nonverbal communication.
timelines, as well as reducing While not in use on the construction site, yet, if successful it could
aid in tasks all controlled through brain signals—and potentially
worker risk. be a game-changer for those with physical challenges.
Ballast Nedam, in partnership with ROPAX, launched a masonry

robot in late 2021 to boost the efficiency of residential housing
construction. It can measure a facade in 15 minutes and ensure
level masonry even on unstable scaffolds, saving a day’s work per
facade. The Hadrian X, developed by Australian-based FBR Limited,
is a swift and efficient mobile robotic blocklaying system capable
of constructing house walls within a day using 3D CAD models.
Beginning in 2025, HD Hyundai plans to broaden its Xite technolo-
gy, which will enable greater site connectivity in the construction,
demolition, and mining industries.

SCENARIOS
SCENARIO YEAR 2032
Nostalgia-Made Spaces
As many homeowners struggled to find homes in the early 2020s, they would often complain that the homes
they could find were nothing like the ones they grew up in—and they cost twice as much as they could afford.
Enter Nostalgia Homes, a developer that started out working with new parents who wanted to re-create the
home they grew up in, so their kids could share the same memories they experienced decades ago.
Nostalgia Homes started in Austin, Texas, and soon became a global developer after completing its first 3D
printed neighborhood. The company impressed clients with its details and accuracy. Through AI simulations,
couples were even able to blend the best parts about each other’s childhood homes and share that blended ex-
perience with their family. Not to leave urban clients out, Nostalgia Homes soon spun out Nostalgia Apartments
and even Nostalgia Venues for repeating travel memories. The company could go into a modular blank apart-
ment and retrofit the empty space using additive drone swarms to look like any place the tenant had previously
lived. Nostalgia Venues offers the ability to re-create destination locations where couples were married or where
a family had vacationed together. Some of the venues are going even further, using AI simulation to help find
ways to build portions of international landmarks in other countries to help those who cannot afford to travel.

AUTHORS &
CONTRIBUTORS

MARK BRYAN Chief Executive Officer

Senior Manager AMY WEBB
Mark Bryan is a Senior Foresight Manager at the Future Today Institute and leads Managing Director
our Built Environment, Hospitality, Retail, Restaurants & CPG practice areas. Mark MELANIE SUBIN
excels in applying strategic foresight to design and the built environment, anticipat-
ing future need states for our physical and organizational spaces. His expertise in Creative Director
integrating strategic planning with innovative design principles empowers busi- EMILY CAUFIELD
nesses to anticipate and adapt to future trends, fostering sustainable growth, resiliency, and transformative change
in their industries. Editors
ERICA PETERSON
Before FTI, Mark worked as a workplace strategist, designer, design researcher, and futurist for clients across the
country, most recently through his role as Director of Innovation + Research at a design and architecture firm. Copy Editor
SARAH JOHNSON
Mark’s portfolio of clients includes national foundations, global CPG companies, international associations, product
manufacturers, national retail brands, multi-family developers, healthcare systems, senior living facilities, restaurants, Director of Operations
and large multinationals. Mark has produced original research and strategic analysis on the future of co-living, senior CHERYL COONEY
living, workplaces, play, hotels and resorts, dining, and distance learning.
Mark is a coach in the strategic foresight MBA course at the NYU Stern School of Business. He holds a BS in Interior
Design from Virginia Tech and NCDIQ Certification.

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NEWS • INFORMATION
INDUSTRY NEWS & INFORMATION
TABLE OF CONTENTS
573 Top Headlines 589 Algorithmic Fact Checking 604 Digital Threat Modeling
574 State of Play 590 Scenario: What if Newsrooms 605 Data-enriched Broadcasting
575 Key Events were Replaced by AI that can
606 Scenario: What if We
Summarize the World?
576 Likely Near Term Revitalize Journalism, but
591 Search + Discovery Don’t Engage the Public?
Developments
592 Evolving Search Interfaces 607 Authors
577 Why News & Information
Trends Matter to Your 593 Teaching News Literacy 609 Selected Sources
Organization 594 User Directed Media Formats
595 Digital Frailty
596 Scenario: Presidential
To Consider
Ambitions Dashed
580 Central Themes
597 The Battle for Content Value
581 Ones To Watch
598 Policing the Creator Economy
582 Reporting + Verifying
599 Disordered Consumption and
Information
News Avoidance
583 Computer-Directed Reporting
600 The Information Ecosystem
584 Dateline: Metaverse
601 Eroding Trust in News
585 Summarization at Scale Organizations
586 Content Verification 602 Digital Redlining
587 Investigating Technology 603 Pivot to Philanthropy
588 Sensory Journalism

TOP HEADLINES 01 Generative AI is mainstream

While algorithms won’t completely replace human creators in the near term,
they are lowering the barrier to creating compelling content.
The news ecosystem
is at an inflection 02 Digital traffic dynamics are shifting
Websites built on search will need to contend with rapidly shifting consumer behavior,
point. The adoption of driven by a flood of algorithmic content and changing search modalities.
generative AI in business
03 Publishers are losing power in the content value chain
and entertainment Technology companies are poised to claim a greater share of the content value
media is actively chain wielding multimodal LLMs, giant troves of scraped data and the power of
AI summarization.
shaping consumer
expectations for news. 04 Foundations are the new hedge funds, offering an influx of cash
to fund journalism
News organizations, especially public media and local outlets, are counting on
those grants to hire staff and grow.
05 Trust is essential for media businesses, but it is at near-historic lows

The ability for legacy publishers to succeed will hinge on their ability to maintain the
trust of audiences.

STATE Generative AI went mainstream in 2023, igniting fears that algorithmic content
would flood the internet and relegate writers to the dustbin of history. In the year
OF PLAY
ahead, the initial frenzy around ChatGPT, prompt hacking and AI-backed product
launches will fade, but the information ecosystem will never be the same.
As technologists search for new applications of AI, the media value chain is
being reshaped. The barriers to creating compelling content are falling because
of AI-enabled editing tools—which include text editors that can draft paragraphs
from bullets and video editors that can synthesize a sizzle reel from a few words.
Norms of digital distribution shaped over the last decade are crumbling. There
Emerging technologies like is no longer a dominant social network for news. Search traffic with generative
generative AI are shaping the summaries are poised to replace the traditional list of links. That concern is on
top of a shift in Google’s core algorithm that has reduced the visibility of news
future of content creation, websites.
distribution and monetization. At the same time, the fundamentals of the information economy remain chal-
lenging. The move to reader revenue has kept lots of publishers afloat, but it re-
mains to be seen how much growth is possible. There is substantial excitement
around philanthropic funding models for journalism, but nonprofit newsrooms
still need to prove their relevance to audiences.

KEY EVENTS
MARCH 2023 M AY 1 0, 2 0 2 3 DECEMBER 13, 2023
LLM explosion Generative search from Google Axel Springer + OpenAI partner
Generative AI fever hits with The launch of Search Generative The German media house became
the release of multiple LLMs Experience highlighted how AI the first global publisher to reach
(large language models), might change news discovery. a licensing deal integrate its
including GPT-4.0. journalism into OpenAI’s products.
APRIL 12, 2023 M AY 1 8 , 2 0 2 3
NPR quits Twitter Section 230 remains intact

NPR’s departure emphasized The Supreme Court ruled
the dramatic shift in the social technology platforms aren’t
network’s tone and leadership. liable for user-generated content.


THE PACE OF CHANGE ACCELERATES Evolution in copyright law New modes of search and discovery Fragmented information access
Journalists are accustomed to the Generative AI tools have outstripped set- Generations Z and Alpha have different con- Not everyone can afford a news subscription.
breakneck pace of change: Adjusting tled law. Expect to see litigation challenging sumption patterns than older generations. As paywalls at premier publishers get tighter,
to rapid developments has been the whether crawling content to train a large These differences are especially stark when essential reporting may not reach the com-
watchword of media organizations for language model constitutes fair use. The im- looking at how younger users find news. Pub- munities that need to see it. This is of par-
pacts of that legal wrangling could be com- lishers need to tailor their strategies to reach ticular concern for the 2024 US presidential
more than a decade. The year ahead pounded by new laws or regulations. those potential consumers. election.
will test whether news leaders have
learned to search for disruption or
whether they’ve gotten complacent. Subscription fatigue New European regulations Easier content creation
Barriers to creating compelling con-
The conversion to a subscription economy is The EU’s Digital Services Act, in effect since Expect to see a new suite of productivity tools
tent will fall. The operating assump- happening in news but also in retail, gaming, August, introduced substantial changes to aimed at transforming the creative process.
tions that let many digital publishers automobiles, and more. All those programs the regulatory framework for tech platforms. Those tools will have a cultural—and eco-
thrive on reach will crumble. There are competing for a finite share of consumer Its obligations may shift how platforms op- nomic—impact as they lower the barriers to
spending, so publishers need to ensure they erate, just as a Canadian law caused Meta to publishing text, photos, and videos. Legacy
will be a race to derive value from
are essential to remain competitive. drop news from its platform last year. creators will struggle to adapt.
existing content, either by licensing it
to tech companies or building pub-
lisher-owned LLMs. New categories of 11 MACRO SOURCES OF DISRUPTION
devices will demand new publishing
formats. Successful news organi-
zations will triage these competing
threats to find opportunity; too many
publishers will do nothing and find Technology Media & Demographics Environment Government Public Health Education Geopolitics Infrastructure Economy Wealth
their relevance diminished.

WHY NEWS & INFORMATION TRENDS MATTER TO YOUR ORGANIZATION
Search and discovery Businesses cannot Consumption Content Sustainable news Understanding the
is relevant to all operate without highlights consumer verification funding is essential dynamics of trust
journalism behavior
Any business that A growing body of The way news is read, The ease of creating It is critical to understand Trust is an essential asset
publishes online— research shows that watched, and listened content with AI tools how the economics for all businesses, but
effectively, anyone losing local news outlets to offers tremendous means that it is more of news will continue news organizations must
with a website—needs leads to more corruption, insights into how important than ever to to support impactful pay special attention to
to understand how less competitive elections, consumers will interact verify the authenticity of reporting. The last five their credibility. Tracking
consumers search for and and weaker government with technology more facts, images, and videos years saw a substantial trends in news and
discover new information. finances in impacted broadly. The pervasiveness that circulate online. shift in how publishers information can help an
The shifting search and regions. Business leaders of news makes it a Journalists aren’t the fund themselves, with organization understand
social media landscape need to follow news and good barometer for only ones responsible renewed emphasis on and respond to the ways
is particularly important information trends so understanding how for fact-checking— digital subscriptions that technology is driving
for publishers but is they can maintain the consumers will adapt to any organization that and foundation support. audiences to become
broadly relevant because health of their operating new devices and media publishes content online Those developments have more polarized and
those changes will quickly environment. formats. or takes strategic actions important repercussions distrustful.
impact other industries. based on open-source for the entire media value
information needs to do it. chain.

Reader revenue programs will face growing competition in a market saturated Legacy publishers have a deep archive of content that can be used for training
with subscription products. Publishers may fail to diversify their revenue large-language models. The demand for data to train LLMs could increase the
streams because of the industry consensus to keep pursuing audience value of those archives, creating a new revenue stream for publishers.
revenue.
Brands that maintain durable relationships with consumers will thrive in a low-
Search engines that incorporate generative AI or voice interfaces may send less trust environment. Publishers that have built trust over decades can translate
referral traffic to news websites. That will curtail one of publishers’ strongest that across distribution channels with thoughtful product development.
tools for reaching new audiences, restricting future growth.
Emerging devices will demand new programming formats. Creators and
Device manufacturers and platforms may use LLMs to generate and distribute publishers that act on that opportunity early will be able to set norms and
news directly to their users. The result would be a dramatic shift in the media negotiate better deals with platform companies than those that delay action.
value chain, threatening to displace publishers’ core offering.
Technologists across the world are seeking ways to enhance and apply AI tools
Trust in institutions—and in news media in particular—remains near historic like ChatGPT. That means media companies have an unprecedented number of
lows. News organizations that lose credibility won’t be able to build audiences potential partners to work with on product development.
to sell advertising or to convert consumers to subscribers.
Many open-source alternatives to AI models licensed by tech giants like Google,
Resource-constrained publishers struggle to track the innovation related Microsoft, and OpenAI are available. The propagation of open-source language
to content creation and distribution happening across domains. Their models could allow news organizations to innovate with greater control.
organizational culture makes it difficult to respond to multidisciplinary
challenges.

1 2 3 4 5 6
Assess the value contained Ask how your organization What skills will your organi- Understand the audiences Build partnerships with a Identify the tasks most
within your archives. Is would respond to a trust zation need in the next 5-10 you are trying to reach and local university to identi- vulnerable to automation
there an opportunity to crisis: What would you do years? How will you be able invest in building direct re- fy and create technical within your organization.
license that content or use if your website was used to train or recruit staff who lationships. If your strategic infrastructure. Connections Would deploying an AI tool
it to train your own large to launch a coordinated can support and execute plan calls for an audience with academic institutions to automate that work
language model? Does misinformation cam- on your goals? of younger users, how will can help to make sense of increase operational risk?
that content have specific paign? How would you you measure that goal? state-of-the-art research How would your consumers
biases that should be ad- recover from a mistake Once you start making and create a talent pipeline respond if they learned that
dressed before it could be that impacts consumers’ inroads with that audience, for your organization. certain text was generated
used in production? Is the perception of your brand? what tactics will you use for by an algorithm? Honestly
archive already digitized or An internal exercise could keeping them engaged? answering those questions
is it analog? expose operational gaps could help triage pilot
before they have conse- projects.
quences.

CENTRAL THEMES
Weakening legacy organizations Pivot to audience revenue other industries launch subscription pro- philanthropic funding for news isn’t directly
The information ecosystem is less resilient Subscriptions power media outlets, from grams to compete for readers’ limited funds. addressing this issue, but emerging broad-
because of waves of consolidation and layoffs multibillion-dollar media giants like The New cast standards could help.
Preserving civic information
that have buffeted publishers. More than half York Times to individual passion projects on
Widening news deserts in the United States Focus on value, not tools
of the local newspapers in the United States Substack. They are a preferred tactic with news
are owned by just seven companies. 2023 was organizations because they align publishers’ make it harder to find basic coverage of local Nearly every day a new startup launches with a
a brutal year, with more media layoffs record- economic interests with their audience. governments. The influx of philanthropic novel application of AI. Those tools increasing-
ed by July than any year on record, according funding to news is driven, in large part, by a ly seek to change how would-be creators oper-
Publishers are getting more efficient at con- desire to reverse that decay. ate. While some products will truly disrupt the
to career services company Challenger, Gray
verting readers to subscribers—and under- information ecosystem, it is far too early to
& Christmas.
standing how to retain them once they’ve “The philanthropic sector recognizes the know which ones will have a durable impact.
Across the media landscape, legacy players signed up. Those insights are essential for need to strengthen American democracy,”
and digital upstarts are redoubling their news organizations striving to remain sus- said John Palfrey, president of the MacArthur Instead of focusing on the specific applica-
efforts to build audience-funded recurring tainable. Foundation, in the launch announcement tion of technology, look for whether it offers
revenue streams. That work is essential, but for the $500 million Press Forward coalition, a fundamental shift in how value is created.
At nonprofit news organizations, which gen- to be used for local journalism. “Progress on An AI-enhanced word processor may reduce
it is a long way from reversing the losses that
erally don’t charge for subscriptions or have a every other issue, from education and health writer’s block and streamline the writing
publishers—especially those providing local
news—have suffered over the last decade and paywall, audience revenue is also an important care to criminal justice reform and climate process. Rather than analyzing the ethics of
half. source of support. At those organizations, the change, is dependent on the public’s under- publishing AI-powered suggestions, news or-
challenge is demonstrating the value of recur- standing of the facts.” ganizations should consider the implications
As a result, organizations are forced to make ring support without the help of a paywall. of inviting tech companies into their value
difficult choices between forward-looking in- Another, less discussed, need is preserving chain: How might a magazine’s distinctive
novation and core operations. While it’s easy Whether it’s a subscription or a recurring open access to essential information about voice be impacted if its writers use the same
to defer investing in emerging technologies donation, news organizations need to focus on basic services and emergency situations—in- off-the-shelf editing algorithm that another
and platforms, the strategic imperative is to providing an essential service. That’s the best formation that can be difficult to find be- publication uses? How will pre-publication
act on the trends nearing an inflection point. way to ensure consumers stay engaged and cause of the quality of government websites data be used in other products or services?
remain willing to pay, even as more and more and other official sources. The current wave of

ONES TO WATCH
Ashley Alvarado, who leads community Liz Danzico, design executive at Microsoft, Joy Mayer, director of Trusting News, a Josh Raab, former director of Instagram and
engagement and strategic initiatives for for contributing to the development of Bing’s project that trains journalists and conducts TikTok at National Geographic, for studying
Southern California Public Radio, for pursu- AI interface and working with news organiza- research intended to help bolster trust in and how journalists can understand social algo-
ing innovative ways to engage audiences tions to consider how they need to evolve. credibility of news organizations. rithms as part of a Knight-Wallace fellowship.
with public media.
Jessica Davis, senior director for AI prodect Miranda Marcus, leader of BBC labs, for Zach Seward, the New York Times’ first Edi-
Keith Axline, Spencer Cavanaugh, and Eric at Gannett, for pursuing AI-powered newsroom managing the broadcaster’s innovation incu- torial Director of A.I. Initiatives. In that role, he
Mack, co-founders of JournoDAO, for proto- automation solutions across the publisher’s bator that explores new ways technology can will play an outsize role shaping the norms
typing ways that journalists can engage with network. support newsgathering and distribution. for how one of the world’s largest news orga-
Web3 technologies. nizations uses AI tools.
Lebo Diseko, South African correspondent Surya Mattu, leader of the Digital Witness
Scott Brodbeck, founder of a local news net- for the BBC World Service and Nieman Fel- Lab at Princeton University, for work support- Felix M. Simon, doctoral student at the
work serving the Washington, D.C., metro area, low, for research into new modes of audience ing technologies investigating misinforma- Oxford Internet Institute and Knight News
for experimenting with GPT-4 to scale local engagement and how journalists can protect tion and how algorithms make decisions. Innovation Fellow, for researching the blind
news operations with low-code automation. democracy. spots in newsrooms’ AI guidelines.
Dr. Swapneel Mehta, founder of research
Meredith Broussard, data journalist and Evelyn Douek, assistant professor of law at collective SimPPL, for facilitating partner- Agnes Stenbom, founder of Schibsted’s
journalism professor at New York University, Stanford Law School, for leading scholarship ships to understand local news audience inclusion lab, for advancing research into re-
for academic research on applications of AI on how online speech is regulated by social analytics and the spread of disinformation. sponsible AI usage and for prototyping ways
to investigative reporting and the creation of platforms and tech companies. outsiders can get involved with the future of
ethical AI. Dr. Arvind Narayanan, professor of comput- news.
Dr. Magdalena Fuentes, professor at NYU, er science at Princeton University, for leading
Feli Carrique, executive director of the News for research around how AI can improve the a research project about algorithmic amplifi- Dr. Benjamin Toff, senior research fellow at
Product Alliance, for coordinating a communi- quality of closed captions and transcriptions cation on social media. the Reuters Institute for the Study of Journal-
ty of news innovators, including launching a by better describing ambient sound. ism, for leading research into declining trust
new certificate for News Product Management. Michael Newman, director of transformation in news in communities around the world.
Uli Köppen, head of the AI+Automation Lab at at Graham Media Group, for leading a project
Jon Cohrs, Chris Wood, and Willa Köerner, the German public broadcaster Bayerischer that experimented with using generative AI Johanna Wild, founder of Bellingcat’s inves-
members of The New York Times R+D team, Rundfunk, for prototyping and exploring the to improve the quality of comments sections. tigative tech team, for nurturing the ecosys-
for work on spatial audio, including creating future of public service broadcasting. tem of developers and tools that can improve
a guide for podcast producers to use the the quality of investigative journalism.
technology.

REPORTING
+ VERIFYING
INFORMATION

3RD YEAR ON THE LIST HOW IT WORKS WHY IT MATTERS
COMPUTER- Experimental tools powered by AI are finding their way into

newsrooms. Newsquest, the second-largest newspaper
The accelerating capabilities of generative AI raise existen-
tial questions for publishers and threaten to destabilize the
DIRECTED company in the UK, hired an “AI-powered reporter” in June.

When the job description was posted, Newsquest’s Edito-
content ecosystem. Those concerns should be top of mind
for news leaders, but they are also relevant for anyone who
REPORTING rial Development Director Toby Granville told a media blog:

“AI technology opens up new possibilities for newsrooms,
consumes the news.
There are already examples of how generative AI strategies

helping them win back time to focus on what they do best—
can go wrong without proper oversight. After backlash about
face-to-face journalism, which can never be replaced by
the decision to publish more than 70 articles written by AI,
WHAT IT IS robots.”
CNET launched an internal investigation to review those sto-
Publishers are becoming more The Associated Press launched five pilots to showcase the
applications of AI within local newsrooms, with funding
ries. More than half—including articles with titles like “What
Is Compound Interest?” and “How Much Should You Keep in
comfortable with applying AI in the from the Knight Foundation. Those included working with a CD?”—needed corrections. In some cases, CNET also had to
the Brainerd Dispatch in Minnesota to generate automated rewrite the articles because the investigation revealed some
newsroom. Increasingly, forward- summaries of police updates and triaging press releas- of the language had been plagiarized from the sources used
looking news organizations es and tips sent to WFMZ-TV in Allentown, Pennsylvania. to train its model.
Another project at WUOM-FM at the University of Michigan
are using algorithms to identify built a system for sending reporters alerts when certain top-
A growing number of news organizations are releasing AI
policies to govern their use of algorithmic tools. The guide-
newsworthy events and develop ics were discussed at city council meetings.
lines generally deal with the production of content, leaving
story pitches. The trend could ALXnow, an Arlington, Virginia-based local news website, many open questions about other AI considerations. Those
used OpenAI’s GPT-4 to launch an AI-written newsletter include whether newsrooms might become increasingly
make reporters and editors more and build a copy editing tool. YESEO, a project sponsored dependent on the technology companies providing AI solu-
efficient but only with careful by the Reynolds Journalism Institute, uses GPT to suggest
search-friendly headlines for news articles.
tions and how news organizations can ethically use all the
data they collect from their audience and in the reporting
oversight to prevent infusing process.
reporting with algorithmic bias.

DATELINE: More and more of our lives are spent in persistent digital
spaces. Reporting on the metaverse means taking seriously
Covering virtual worlds seriously requires reframing how we
think about them. If a political candidate appears at a rally
METAVERSE the events that happen in those digital worlds instead of

relegating them to a niche beat like “internet culture” or
saying one thing but their avatar contradicts that state-
ment in a virtual world, how should journalists respond? Is
“gaming.” the in-person comment more “real” than the digital one?
What if the doublespeak is part of an intentional messaging
In February 2023, a Colombian traffic court convened to strategy?
hear a case in the metaverse—an apparent first for the
WHAT IT IS
judiciary. Participants in the dispute appeared as avatars Newsrooms need to expand coverage of virtual spaces
in Meta’s Horizon Worlds platform, with a live steam broad- beyond the gaming beat—behind the press releases and car-
Even as the hype for metaverse cast to YouTube. The presiding judge, Magistrate María
Victoria Quiñones Triana, appeared as an avatar dressed in
toonish graphics, reporters will find tangible investments in
technology, talent, and infrastructure by some of the world’s
products fades, the line between black robes. most powerful companies.
our digital and physical selves Together, a handful of newsrooms launched projects on News organizations should also start thinking about their
The Sandbox and Decentraland, two gaming platforms long-term value proposition in the metaverse: As we spend
is increasingly blurred. News with metaverse-like qualities. The South China Morning more of our lives connecting digitally, how do real-world
organizations need to be Post used The Sandbox to publish a collection of historical connections change? How can local newspapers create rela-
photos, data visualizations, and illustrations as NFTs. Brit- tionships with citizens who see themselves more connected
prepared to report on events that ish business magazine Management Today published its to an online affinity group than to their neighbors in physi-
unfold seamlessly across the real March 2022 cover as a 12-meter high wall in Decentraland. cal space?
world and digital platforms. One persistent challenge for news organizations operating Without a single dominant virtual world among consumers,
in the metaverse is the lack of established norms around organizations considering metaverse experiments need to
content moderation. Each virtual platform has its own rules be cautious about where they invest. Rather than doubling
and enforcement mechanisms—to the extent that there are down on a single platform, executives should consider how
any. That creates uncertainty for brands looking to launch to develop the underlying skills that will be necessary to
experiments and makes it harder for reporters to identify succeed, no matter which platform becomes popular.
truly newsworthy events.

SUMMARIZATION Summarization is one of the tasks at which LLMs excel.

Researchers are actively developing benchmarks to evalu-
Summarization seems like a simple task, but effective
summaries need to balance competing interests: A good
AT SCALE ate how well those models perform—both in relation to one

another and in competition with humans. One project by
one is clear while staying true to the original. Source texts
might be packed with distinctive writing styles, metaphors,
a research team from Stanford and Columbia universities and subtle meanings. A news article might include a mix of
found that evaluators ranked AI-generated summaries as factual statements, quoted opinion, and expert speculation.
highly as those written by trained freelancers.
In a crime story, an AI model might mistakenly transform
WHAT IT IS
One of the most active research domains is “multimodal an allegation from the district attorney into a statement
summarization”—a summary that takes inputs from mul- of fact, dramatically changing the meaning of the original
Generative AI excels at consuming tiple forms of media or was created in a different medium
than the source material. For example, generating text sum-
reporting and potentially generating libel if the accused is
innocent. A lawsuit filed in June tried to test whether AI can
content and transforming it. maries of videos or generating a video highlight reel using a be held liable for such errors: A Georgia radio host is su-
combination of raw footage and news stories. ing OpenAI, alleging that a summary produced by ChatGPT
Products are already on the falsely accused him of embezzling money from a gun rights
There are also aggressive pushes to productize summariza-
market that use large language tion. Artifact, a news reading app launched by the founders
nonprofit. The case was dismissed for procedural reasons;
other similar cases will follow.
models to summarize text for a of Instagram, includes a feature that generates a bulleted
summary of the articles it curates. In principle, that can be The power to crawl and effectively summarize information
streamlined reading experience. a valuable service for readers, letting them catch up quickly could create a new intermediary between publishers and
Researchers are looking to on the news. In practice, however, summarizing news can their audience. AI may make it possible for readers to con-
be difficult: The generated summaries sometimes express sume far more information than ever before. The question
extend that approach to video. a quote as a statement of fact. That can materially change for publishers is whether that interest will generate any new
This trend jeopardizes the the meaning of the story, especially on sensitive topics like
crime coverage.
engagement for them—or whether all of the consumption
will happen on enhanced search result pages, in reading
creativity and voice that lets high- apps, or in platforms that haven’t been invented yet.
value publishers differentiate

themselves.

CONTENT When news of former President Donald Trump’s first indict-

ment broke, images of him being apprehended by police
Content verification is important across the information
value chain. Consumers of media need to be able to trust
VERIFICATION flooded Twitter. The images were compelling and believable

but not real. They were generated using Midjourney, a gener-
that the videos, images, and sources they encounter are
real. Meeting that demand requires that journalists preserve
ative AI tool. While the images were quickly debunked, they trust (see also: Eroding Trust in News Organizations) but
showed how quickly generated media could spread even also proactively develop skills to protect themselves from
with obvious imperfections in the image. accidentally disseminating fake or misleading information.
WHAT IT IS
Researchers and industry groups are actively building tools Further up the content value chain, newsmakers will de-
to differentiate authentic content from manipulated media. mand content verification mechanisms to differentiate real
Generative AI is creating new The Content Authenticity Initiative is one cross-disciplinary

collaboration focusing on addressing misinformation and
remarks from those that have been manipulated (i.e., politi-
cians who are recorded during nearly every moment of their
challenges for journalists. As the content authenticity at scale. CAI is led by Adobe, but it public appearances.
includes some of the biggest news organizations, includ-
cost and complexity of creating ing The New York Times, Axel Springer, and The Associated
Content verification is an especially urgent problem outside
the English-speaking world. Although social platforms and
realistic fakes decrease, the need Press. One of CAI’s key initiatives was launching a metadata
tech giants operate globally, their staff are largely based in
standard called “content credentials” for tracking the ways
to be skeptical of images and that images can be edited, manipulated, and enhanced
the United States and Western Europe. This leaves the rest
of the world without many of the fact-checking and mod-
videos circulating on social media using artificial intelligence.
eration resources available for English-language media.
rises. Newsrooms need to pay A number of experimental prototypes exist for creating a Finding ways to address that discrepancy is essential for
trusted content chain from the moment of generation to protecting the global information chain and the stability of
special attention to the training, consumption. A team at the University of Maryland tested democracies across the developing world.
tools, and workflows needed to TalkLock, a QR-code based system for verifying that video of
live events hasn’t been maliciously manipulated.
avoid being tricked.

10TH YEAR ON THE LIST HOW IT WORKS WHY IT MATTERS
INVESTIGATING When technology feels like magic, it is harder for laypeople

to understand how it works. If journalists don’t understand
The domain of computer-assisted reporting—data analysis
and coding to help chase a story—has been emerging since
TECHNOLOGY technology, they won’t be able to ask substantive questions.
Researchers have found numerous examples of algorithms

the 1960s, when a reporter at the Detroit Free Press used a
mainframe computer to analyze data and demonstrate that
people who attended college were equally likely to have par-
that were supposed to provide impartial judgments instead ticipated in Detroit’s race riots as were high school dropouts.
amplifying bias that exists in society. Studies tracking the
impact of algorithms deployed in the criminal justice sys- This trend is different, however, because these days journal-
WHAT IT IS
tem, for example, found that they tend to disproportionately ists need deep technical acumen to understand the story
impact marginalized communities. Because the data used they are trying to tell. News organizations need to recruit
News organizations will use to train sentencing algorithms disproportionately included

minority defendants, they compounded the discrimination
staff with the same skills as the technologists who are de-
veloping products for tech companies. When reporters have
artificial intelligence and those communities face instead of undoing it. Reporters those skills, the results are compelling. Examples include
from ProPublica found similar results while investigating The Markup, which spent 18 months building Blacklight, a
other emerging technologies RealPage, an algorithm used by property managers to maxi- tool for examining trackers deployed on websites, and The
strategically, but they must also mize the rent tenants might pay. Wall Street Journal, which built a network of bots to reverse
engineer and explain the TikTok algorithm.
consider them journalistically: That work is essential but increasingly requires deep
technical understanding and rigorous data analysis. It’s When news organizations lack the skills to pursue high-
Holding the powerful accountable increasingly common for data journalists to publish their tech stories—or to know when they should consult outside
means scrutinizing how AI is methodology alongside an investigation to help audiences experts—they may miss scoops or be taken advantage of
understand exactly how they pursued a story. That’s an im- by bad actors looking to spread misinformation. Hiring
trained, built, and deployed. portant exercise to boost trust in news, but it underscores managers in newsrooms should be open to candidates with
Reporters may need special how investigative journalism has changed: Leveraging
technology is quickly becoming even more important than
unconventional paths but strong technical skills.
technical training to pursue this shoe-leather reporting.
essential beat.

SENSORY Newsrooms have been experimenting with immersive

storytelling for nearly as long as the internet has support-
Emerging devices increasingly provide an immersive ex-
perience that breaks free of a mobile phone screen. Those
JOURNALISM ed video playback. But as devices became more powerful

and broadband allowed for higher resolution playback, the
coming to market will shape consumer expectations and
define new categories of content. That means the impact of
ability to influence a user’s experience has increased: Apple sensory journalism will be felt long before virtual and mixed
recently patented a mechanism for modulating audio based reality experiences are mainstream: It will be a gradual shift
on perceived distance in a video or game; if released, that from content constrained to a screen to content enmeshed
framework would open the infrastructure of spatial audio to with a consumer’s senses.
WHAT IT IS developers.
For news leaders, now is the time to consider the types of re-
As immersive devices become Researchers in Finland and Spain collaborated to test how
audiences responded to a 2016 project produced by Span-
portage that new device types will require. Just as producing
360-degree video requires specialized equipment, so will
mainstream, journalists will have ish newspaper El Pais. The team surveyed users after they immersive experiences. The medium’s potential to manip-
consumed both an immersive video documentary and an ulate a user’s emotions also requires new ethical debates:
the power to tell stories that tap online article about the Fukushima nuclear catastrophe. Newsrooms need to consider what subjective choices are
directly into their audiences’ They found that the 360-degree video generated “greater acceptable during the editing and production of immersive
emotional effect based on a greater perception of presence, media—and which are too manipulative.
senses. Storytellers will need to realism, and involvement.”
This technology also raises important accessibility ques-
balance the capacity for sensory Still, there’s a long way to go before multisensory storytell- tions: How will journalists ensure their work is accessible to
journalism to build emotional ing finds widestream acceptance. A research team in the all—including groups that tech companies frequently fail to
Netherlands built a prototype called “FellTheNews” that prioritize, like women, people with disabilities, and people of
connections between the combined haptic feedback and heat sensitive materials. color? By experimenting and planning now, newsrooms can
subjects of their stories and their Users had no increased emotional response because of the
haptics, often missed the sensory feedback because they
be proactive and act strategically.
audiences with novel ethical were focused on the storytelling, and had less trust of news
when they felt their emotions were being manipulated.
dilemmas.

ALGORITHMIC Because human fact-checkers have limited resources, AI

can help triage the torrent of disinformation and misinfor-
Generative AI tools are decreasing the barriers to spreading
lies at scale. That makes the search for scalable solutions
FACT-CHECKING mation spreading across the internet. Factchequeando, a

collaboration between two Spanish-language fact-check-
to disinformation and misinformation increasingly urgent.
That urgency is heightened by AI’s tendency to be confident-
ing newsrooms, is deploying machine learning systems to ly wrong. Google, for example, has incorporated the ability
identify the most impactful misinformation targeting Span- to “double check” Bard’s responses with a color-coded
ish-speaking communities in the US. fact-checking interface. Bing’s chat experience can provide
footnotes for its claims. Solutions like those will be essen-
WHAT IT IS
Other researchers are looking for ways to use AI to direct- tial to reinforce consumers’ trust in AI results and to prevent
ly identify fake news—either by matching what’s being AI hallucinations from shaping the public debate.
Researchers and start-ups are reported to previously debunked claims or by comparing
statements to a corpus of known information. Either one is While algorithmic fact-checking tools could help police in
looking to harness the power of AI a substantial technical challenge because of the probabi- an increasingly fractured content landscape, they could also
listic nature of existing large language models. A team of backfire without proper training. Much of research bench-
to streamline the time-consuming researchers working with PANACEA (the PANdemic Ai Claim marks the performance of new algorithms against data
process of fact-checking. The vEracity Assessment) found that AI-based fact-checking sets of historic misinformation—much like lies that spread
struggles because of vastly different organizational norms about COVID at the start of the pandemic. That approach
approaches vary from tools to and tolerances for risk. risks missing emerging forms of false information that
help human fact-checkers triage Academic research into AI-driven fact-checking accelerated
might spread with different qualities or through different
vectors.
potential misinformation to during the COVID pandemic, in response to broad concern
about how fake news was impacting global public health. An essential requirement for implementing automated
proactively evaluating statements The lingering question is whether those models will gener- fact-checking solutions should be algorithmic transpar-
as true or false. alize to future situations. ency. Traditional fact-checking isn’t just about returning
a binary answer, it’s about ensuring information is pre-
sented with the appropriate context. Similarly, algorithmic
fact-checking should be able to give a detailed answer
about how a tool is evaluating a claim, not just assign an
arbitrary score.

SCENARIOS
SCENARIO YEAR 2027
What If Newsrooms Were Replaced by AI That Can Summarize the World?

As the computational power of large language models grows, so does their capacity to summarize information in
real time. For device makers, synthesizing all the signals from a user’s life has become a crucial feature for maxi-
mizing the stickiness of their products.
Both iOS and Android are producing news briefings for consumers based on texts, emails, and calendar invites,
alongside news from around the world. The finished product is an up-to-the minute summary of information from
social media, news websites, stock markets, government sources, and even the consumer’s friends. The output
keeps evolving and adapting to each user, to give them a personalized mix of sources calibrated to keep them
engaged. Product announcements herald how the briefings are always relevant because they can be tailored to
highlight only information that needs the consumer’s immediate attention. Internally, tech companies celebrate
how this new feature drives user retention, making a device central to the consumer’s perception of the world. For
most people, these generated summaries provide all the news they need to live their life.
As a result, direct engagement with news organizations lags. A handful of national and metropolitan newspapers
are sustaining themselves by signing licensing agreements with Apple and Google to monetize the reporting that
gets pulled into the machine-written briefings, but most publishers struggle to survive. Even nonprofit news orga-
nizations suffer because they cannot demonstrate the impact of their reporting: Platforms don’t provide any trans-
parency about which facts they incorporate into a briefing or whether users actually engage with the information.

SEARCH +
DISCOVERY

EVOLVING SEARCH The search landscape has changed dramatically in the last
year as tech companies raced to productize search engines
Even as Microsoft and Google push to develop generative
AI-powered search experiences, those tech companies need
INTERFACES that incorporated generative AI. Bing Chat was first to market
because of Microsoft’s partnership with OpenAI, followed sev-
to contend with how the new technology threatens their rev-
enue model for operating a search engine. That will amplify
eral months later by Google’s Search Generative Experience. the uncertainty and magnitude of change in this sector.
The technology was evolving so fast that The New York Alphabet Chairman John Hennessy told Reuters that gen-
Times’ Kevin Roose found using a pre-release version of Bing erating a response from a large language model costs as
WHAT IT IS
Chat “was the strangest experience I’ve ever had with a piece much as 10 times more than the results page of a stan-
of technology” after the chatbot confessed its love to Roose. dard keyword search because higher computing costs are
The future of search isn’t just a Delivering a production-ready generative search experience
involved. At the same time, generative results threaten the
revenue associated with running a search engine by de-em-
list of links. Search giants are means tweaking large language models so they can cite
sources and avoid hallucinations. That is especially import-
phasizing sponsored links. For Google, that threatens to
undercut more than $160 billion in revenue associated with
rapidly developing generative ant for answering queries that relate to current events. search ads.
search experiences that return The rapid development of search engines backed by genera- As a result, the emergence of AI-driven search interfaces
prose-based answers to queries. tive models will likely accelerate the development of another
emerging platform: voice. Half of US consumers already use
represents a rare moment of disruption for such a mature
sector. In the near term, new entrants could find scale in a
Consumers are also growing voice search daily, most frequently for utility searches like market that was, until recently, completely dominated by
finding the weather or asking to find something “near me.”
increasingly comfortable with Google. There will also be rapid changes across the content
Both chat and voice-based results deliver a dramatically ecosystem as publishers and retailers look for new ways to
voice search on digital assistants different experience to consumers because they deliver a optimize their platforms to perform in search—or to exclude
and wearables. For publishers, single result instead of a list of links. For tech companies, their content altogether to avoid training increasingly so-
phisticated LLMs.
that places a greater emphasis on discerning search intent
these shifts demand urgent to deliver the “right” answer. For publishers, the key question
action to prepare for a shift in is whether search will remain a driver of traffic if users can
satisfy their query without leaving the search engine.
referral traffic.

TEACHING NEWS Media literacy is a formal program, frequently directed

toward children, to help people navigate an increasingly
A population that can’t differentiate between reliable and
unreliable news is an urgent threat to reputable news
LITERACY complex media ecosystem. In many European countries

there is a nationally mandated curriculum for increasing
sources’ business models—and to the notion of a civically
engaged population. In our increasingly fraught information
digital competency. landscape, where the costs of creating misinformation and
disinformation are plummeting, it is crucial for news pub-
For many years, Finland has had a national news literacy lishers to take immediate action.
program in schools. The European Union funds a number
WHAT IT IS
of programs, including a curriculum of fake news courses In the absence of government efforts to educate citizens
targeting young people. No centralized body for teaching about the dangers of misinformation, publishers need a
News literacy is a skill that helps news literacy exists in the US, but a number of nonprofits
and university programs fill the void, including the News
clear strategy to help cement their value proposition in the
minds of their audience members. This requires going be-
audiences understand how to find Literacy Project, Common Sense Education, and the Center yond mere reporting to embrace innovative approaches for
for News Literacy at Stony Brook University. regaining trust. Failure to do so risks diminishing consumer
reliable sources in an increasingly demand for factual, reliable news in the future.
Researchers have found that teaching about media literacy
crowded information ecosystem. can reduce fake news sharing on social media, even when As Generations Z and Alpha mature, their distinctive con-
The rapid development of users can’t perfectly identify fake news. Still, it’s import- sumption habits will need to drive new definitions of news
ant that curricula are updated to reflect the consumption literacy—and new products to meet consumers where they
generated and synthetic media behaviors of young people, which look very different from are. These younger generations, born into a digitally con-
will require updates to news those of the educators who run media literacy programs. nected world, have grown up navigating an overwhelming
Generations Z and Alpha are more likely to get their news amount of information at lightning speed.
literacy curricula, especially those from social media and have different definitions of news,
targeted to young people. according to researchers in the Netherlands who surveyed
young people.

2ND YEAR ON THE LIST HOW IT WORKS WHY IT MATTERS
USER DIRECTED Users’ preferences about how they consume media are cre-
ating unexpected convergences in platforms. The growing
Publishers are used to exerting complete control over their
content. For many creators, especially those providing deep-
MEDIA FORMATS popularity of YouTube for listening to podcasts is making

on-demand audio more like video blogging—and creating
ly reported features or high-production value multimedia,
an essential part of their value proposition is the care taken
opportunities for vloggers to reach a new audience. in preparing their reporting. Tools that summarize, repack-
age, or translate that content into another format could
Another example of this trend are services that convert erase the distinctive value of that craftsmanship.
long-form journalism into on-demand audio by having it
WHAT IT IS
read, either by a reporter, a voice actor, or a generated voice. This trend, accelerated by powerful AI models and the flood
Similarly, it’s fairly common for platforms to offer variable of algorithmically generated content, could shift more pow-
Technology and consumer playback speed for audio and video content, a feature that
privileges the audiences’ preferences over the intent of
er in the media value chain from creators to distributors.
That would be a concerning development for news leaders,
preference are blurring the lines creators. which are already scrambling to retain direct relationships
with individual consumers.
between media formats. Multiple The default preference for many viewers is playing video
with closed captions enabled; that’s true even for people Legacy publishers should also watch this trend as an indi-
modalities of consumption can who have no hearing impairment. A 2006 study by Britain’s cator for how their content might adapt to emerging for-
open new doors for distribution, Office of Communications found that 80% of television mats. As mixed reality devices become mainstream, a key
viewers used closed captions for reasons other than hear- question will be how much existing content can be adapted
like podcasters publishing to ing impairment. A different 2022 survey found that half to the new consumption format. If there are technologies
YouTube. But this trend also shifts of Americans watch content with closed captions most of that enable legacy players to directly transfer their archives
the time, with higher rates of adoption among Gen Z. One onto a new platform, that might speed the technology’s
control from publishers to their possible explanation is that younger viewers are more likely adoption. If there isn’t an effective way to adjust the format
audience. to multitask while consuming media, and they are more
familiar with platforms like TikTok where text on video is a
of previously created content, that might create an opportu-
nity space for new creators willing to experiment.
common feature.

DIGITAL FRAILTY Data can be lost for a variety of reasons, ranging from acci-
dental loss to hacking. Research commissioned by the Pon-
Our ability to archive material today is essential for future
scholars to study our time. Failing to build a strategy for
emon Institute found that three out of five organizations have saving data in the present could have unintended conse-
suffered an accidental loss of emails. Sometimes information quences.
loss isn’t a bug but a feature, as in the case of intentionally
Extensive funding exists for digitizing and preserving his-
disappearing messages in apps like Signal or WhatsApp.
toric material, but funders have shown limited interest in
The ability for information to survive also varies based on supporting programs that store data today.
WHAT IT IS
where you are. For example, the EU enforces a “right to be for-
Conversations about building archives of contemporary
gotten” for its residents, letting them request the removal of
information will also need to consider the consequences of
The ease of searching and personal data from search engines or websites. No such right
exists outside the EU.
retaining expansive data sets. This is especially important
retrieving digital information Even when digital information can be saved there are ethical
for children growing up in a world where their entire educa-
tional history will be preserved on a server, rather than in a
creates the illusion of its considerations about whether it should remain accessible. Rubbermaid bin under their childhood bed. Political candi-
Many US news organizations, including The Boston Globe, dates in 20-30 years may need to respond to leaks of their
permanence. In reality, however, Chicago Sun-Times, and Atlanta Journal-Constitution, have fourth grade writing.
data can be corrupted and launched initiatives to review their archives to either delete or
As more digital content is generated by large language
deindex mugshots or crime articles based on a single source.
lost for a variety of reasons. models, that text will start to be consumed by the crawlers
The Internet Archive is a leading force for preserving our training the next generation of models. That could lead to a
Digital frailty is how data in the digital heritage. It has collections of early computer games different kind of digital frailty: a phenomenon called “mod-
digital world can disappear emulated online so they can still be played. At the start of the el collapse,” where LLMs fail to perform when they’ve been
COVID pandemic the Archive launched the National Emergen- trained on machine-generated training data. Without care,
unexpectedly, complicating the cy Library, lending digital copies of books for free. A group of organizations could find that their once reliable AI pipelines
project of history, journalism, and book publishers sued over the work, and a federal court ruled are suddenly vulnerable to hallucinations.
against the Archive in 2023, undercutting the argument that
basic business operations. sharing scans of books that are commercially available as
e-books could be considered fair use.

SCENARIOS
SCENARIO YEAR 2052
Presidential Ambitions Dashed

Until recently, Jennifer Williams was the leading candidate in the 2052 presidential election. As a renowned so-
cial justice advocate, social media influencer, and charismatic leader, she’s built a broad coalition to support
her groundbreaking policy ideas. Polls and betting markets considered her the clear frontrunner, even before she
formally won her party’s nomination.
But her slam-dunk campaign was derailed after a collection of her fourth grade writing assignments leaked on-
line. The journal entries, drawings, and writing assignments were found by hackers in a poorly maintained server
belonging to Williams’ hometown school district. The materials were created when Willams attended school re-
motely in March 2020. While Williams’ political career has been built around increasing access to health care and
building programs to help people support each other, the childhood writing included skepticism about masking
and frustrations about staying home to “flatten the curve.” In context, it was understandable as a child trying to
process the trauma of a pandemic; in the hands of her adversaries it was fodder for a smear campaign.
The leaked materials undercut Williams’ carefully curated image. The stories in Williams’ childhood journal
weren’t inconsistent from the personal narrative she told on the stump, but the emphasis was different and was
easily twisted and distorted by political opponents looking to discredit her. The incident was further complicated
because the hackers used generative AI to manufacture fake drawings and writing samples that mirrored Wil-
lams’ childhood style. The combination of selectively quoted genuine artifacts and manufactured falsehoods is
sowing doubt about what Williams truly believes.

THE BATTLE FOR There is an ongoing debate about whether using published
content to train large language models constitutes fair use.
As the generative AI economy explodes, watch for tech com-
panies to pursue partnerships to grow their market share.
CONTENT VALUE The New York Times has filed a lawsuit alleging that OpenAI
should be held responsible for “billions of dollars in stat-
The question for publishers—which will also be wrestling
with how generative AI impacts their business—is whether
utory and actual damages” related to the “unlawful copy- those relationships are equal or extractive. Initiatives like
ing and use of The Times’s uniquely valuable works.” Axel OpenAI’s $5 million partnership with the American Jour-
Springer, a German publisher, took a different tack, entering nalism Project might be transformative accelerators for
into a multi-year licensing agreement with OpenAI. sustainable journalism, but they might also be a reprise
WHAT IT IS of the millions of dollars that Facebook poured into media
Publishers like Bloomberg respond to this trend by train- companies to fuel the (infamous) pivot to video.
Publishers have two imperatives ing their own specialized LLMs—in Bloomberg’s case,
BloombergGPT, a 50-billion parameter language model spe- In the near term, publishers need discipline to ensure that
to respond to the propagation of cifically designed to support finance-specific applications. any pivot to AI is actually aligned with their brand and busi-
That approach is particularly appealing for organizations ness model. That means interrogating whether AI solutions
large language models: First, they with deep data repositories and strong technical expertise. actually meet a real consumer need. It also means consid-
need to reckon with the value that An important consideration in publishers’ fight to protect
ering the opportunity cost of launching AI tools and asking
whether that investment might be better directed to core
LLMs generate after being trained the value of their content will be how durable the market for operations. But it also demands thinking broadly about dis-
commercial AI models is. If giants like OpenAI and Google
from their content. Second, they have market-leading algorithms that are widely adapted,
ruptions to the media value chain. Assuming that “this too
shall pass” isn’t a plan, it’s a prayer.
need to find a way to remain it will be easier for publishers to define their negotiating
opponents. But if the dominant application of AI becomes If publishers can’t harness generative AI or find a way to
competitive in an information fine-tuning open-source models like Llama, that undercuts make human-authored content distinctive and sustainable,
ecosystem flooded by cheaply the value tech companies can create—and their ability to
pay licensing fees.
the worst plausible scenarios are dire. The flood of gener-
ated information could function as a form of censorship,
generated content. making it impossible for people to find basic information,
let alone the news they need for basic civic engagement.

POLICING Under Elon Musk’s stewardship, Twitter—now X—has been

an object lesson in capricious decision-making around
Politicians on both ends of the political spectrum want to
constrain how social media platforms run their moderation
THE CREATOR moderation and platform governance. The platform shifted

its content strategy week-by-week, seemingly struggling to
platforms. Last year, the Supreme Court issued two rulings
upholding Section 230 of the Communications Decency
ECONOMY keep up with Musk’s pronouncements in his feed. Still, the

decision to release Twitter’s recommendation algorithm
Act, a key law that limits the liability of platforms for user
generated content. If successful, future efforts to repeal or
last March offered important visibility into the mechanics limit Section 230 would dramatically reshape the informa-
of how social media companies can steer what users see. tion economy.
WHAT IT IS While the code was largely useless without the data used to
In spite of federal protections, state lawmakers have tried to
train the models, it was possible to see what actions Twitter
Social platforms thrive because was trying to incentivize (clicking into the conversation or
use their power to fight back against platforms. Florida Gov.
Ron DeSantis signed a 2022 law that lets the state fine large
replying to the tweet) and disincentivize (report the tweet or
of their ability to deliver users block the author).
social media companies if they ban candidates for office.
DeSantis considers the law essential to protect “conserva-
compelling content. To retain— The broadest brush for fighting controversial content is tive ideas” online; critics of the Florida law say it infringes
and monetize—those users, deplatforming—banning key figures associated with un- on the First Amendment rights of platform companies. The
wanted topics and removing posts centered around that law is largely blocked from enforcement while it is litigated.
platforms need to manage the material. Researchers from George Washington University
The global climate for moderation is likely to shift in the
firehose of text, image, and video and Google studied the bans of QAnon, Boogaloos, patriot/
coming years. The European Union Digital Services Act in-
militia groups, and white supremacists on both Twitter and
that keeps people coming back. Facebook. They found that removing those movements from
troduces a range of obligations for platforms—with specific
rules for “very large platforms,” or those that serve more
As each platform’s strategy mainstream platforms was initially successful at contain-
ing their message, but ultimately failed because the move-
than 10% of European consumers. Those rules require new
for incentivizing and removing ments were able to evolve their messaging to stay ahead of
ways to flag illegal content and transparency around the
algorithms used to power the platforms.
the platforms’ moderators.
content evolves, creators and
publishers can be left in the lurch
trying to keep up.

DISORDERED Thirty-six percent of people say they sometimes or often active-

ly try to avoid the news, according to the 2023 Reuters Institute
Understanding news avoidance is a strategic imperative for
media executives. Consumers’ willingness to pay for news
CONSUMPTION AND
Digital News Report. That’s down slightly from 2022 but up from in the future may be substantially impacted amid grow-
29% in 2017. The same study found that women report avoiding ing consensus that spending time with journalism is bad
the news more than men and that avoidance often varies by for mental health. It may seem far-fetched, but a plausible
NEWS AVOIDANCE political orientation and topic. Similarly, news avoidance is a
driving factor among people who report spending less time with
future for news includes contending with the overwhelm-
ing sentiment that media is designed to be addictive and
public media, according to the Public Radio Tech Survey. harmful—just like tobacco.
WHAT IT IS The flipside of news avoidance is doomscrolling—going deeper Having a clear picture of how news avoidance functions will
and deeper into news feeds and following stories that don’t also enable more sophisticated strategic decision-making.
Climate change. The lingering bring joy or meaningful information. Both extremes can be Devices increasingly serve as an aggregation layer, deliver-
problematic. ing recommendations for what information a user should
effects of the pandemic. Graphic see and when. The algorithms baked into those devices will
A growing body of psychology research shows that consuming become another force for media companies to contend with:
descriptions of racism and news can have an emotional toll. One study from the spring If they optimize for device usage, they might inadvertently
of 2020 found that the more frequently people sought news
discrimination. Because of all that about COVID-19, the more likely they were to report emotion-
encode patterns of news avoidance.
and more, the news can make the al distress. Another study found an association between There is no consensus about the ideal amount of news
the amount of exposure to news on social media and more consumption. News organizations have an incentive to
world feel bleak. Consumers can depression and PTSD symptoms. One of the psychologists maximize the amount of information that consumers see to
researching the impacts of pandemic news observed that the justify their subscriptions. Others might argue for optimiz-
have extreme reactions to these mental health impacts of ongoing stories are poorly under- ing for civic engagement or overall mental health. Finding
intensely emotional stories: Some stood. “We call it post-traumatic stress disorder because we
assume it’s post-trauma,” Dr. Matthew Price told an APA jour-
that consensus will be important to define when binging
the news is normal and when it is disordered.
tune out completely and others nal. “What do we do when the trauma is still happening?”
keep reading, even when the Research on news avoidance shows that it can take different
forms: Some people take broad steps to periodically avoid the
impacts on their mental health news while others focus on specific actions like muting push
add up. notifications or checking news websites less frequently.

THE
INFORMATION
ECOSYSTEM

ERODING The news trust crisis remains dire as trust in news con-
tinues to fall globally. The 2023 Reuters Institute Digital
When news organizations aren’t trusted, it’s not just pub-
lishers who suffer.
TRUST IN NEWS News Report found that only 40% of respondents across 46
countries “trust most news most of the time,” reversing
Businesses lose a powerful channel for advertising to poten-
tial customers. Governments lose a megaphone for connect-
ORGANIZATIONS gains observed at the height of the coronavirus pandemic.
The Reuters Institute found that public media brands are
ing with communities about everything from emergencies
to routine services. Communities lose an institution that
generally the most trusted, but their reach and resonance
can define their region by creating a sense of place.
with younger audiences are diminishing.
WHAT IT IS
Further, the perceived polarization of news sources erodes
Across the world, audiences tend to trust the news they use
our capacity for civic debate: It’s hard to have a substan-
Any sustainable future for more than the news generically. That pattern might make
some news leaders less concerned about losing their exist-
tive policy conversation without a shared set of facts. That
news—whether it’s funded ing audiences, but such comfort is misplaced for any orga-
exacerbates the partisan divides that already exist in our
society. It’s telling that trust in news is generally higher for
nization that wants to grow its reach. Reaching new con-
by advertising, subscriptions, sumers, especially those who are younger and more diverse
the sources that individuals actively use than for media
overall—the sources that people use regularly are firmly “in
or philanthropy—depends than current news users, will depend on demonstrating and
group.”
maintaining trust.
on the credibility of the news Organizations like Trusting News and The Trust Project
A 2023 YouGov poll on Americans’ trust of media found that
organizations being supported. PBS had a net trust score of 62 with Democrats but only 2
are working with newsrooms to develop best practices for
transparency and accountability to audiences. Progress is
Across the world, however, among Republicans; Fox News had a net trust score of 41
slow because it requires listening to the varied reasons that
among Republicans and -16 among Democrats. The same
audiences are becoming poll found that CNN was the most polarizing media orga-
people don’t trust journalists in the first place and respond-
ing to those on a community by community basis. That’s
polarized and distrustful of the nization in the United States with a net trust score of 55
among Democrats and -37 among Republicans.
hard to scale, but if it works it can help bolster the informa-
media. tion ecosystem in an essential way.

DIGITAL Not all internet connections are created equal. Although the
Federal Communications Commission defines a broadband
Digital redlining reminds us that being connected to the
internet doesn’t change history or erase problems that exist
REDLINING connection as one that delivers download speeds of at least

25 megabits per second (Mbps) and upload speeds of at
in the physical world.
If we don’t pay attention to the ways that digital solutions

least 3 Mbps, a connection of 25 Mbps is hardly sufficient
can amplify offline disparities, we risk magnifying the
for common tasks like working from home or connecting to
problem. That’s especially true in relation to artificial intel-
a virtual classroom for remote learning.
ligence, where biased training data will produce tainted re-
WHAT IT IS
Researchers have found that communities with lower sults. This places a special burden on the product designers
wealth and more people of color pay more for internet confor newspapers, governments, and other essential services
Digital redlining describes the nectivity than wealthier and whiter communities. Histori-
cally marginalized communities in the United States and
to acknowledge—and mitigate—the accessibility barriers
that could sever audiences from their work. Before deploy-
ways that real-world inequalities around the globe are also vulnerable to having their data ing AI solutions, those organizations have a special duty to
extracted and used outside of their control. consider how the product might be misused and how that
are reflected in the digital world. risk can be minimized.
Digital redlining can also describe the overlapping (and
It can manifest itself through sometimes contradictory) regulations that govern the Without coordinated effort, geographic differences in rights
unequal access to broadband rights of internet users. Californians, for example, have a and expectations will continue to proliferate. This could
“right to be forgotten” similar to the EU’s General Data Pro- change the economics and operating model for companies
connectivity, user interfaces tection Regulation, but it only protects Californians inter- that serve customers across international borders (or even
that require high-end devices acting with businesses that operate in the state whereas across states in the US). Established tech platforms and
GDPR applies to European citizens anywhere in the world. multinational organizations will have the scale to account
to access basic services, or the The fragmented regulatory landscape means that where one for that kind of regulatory complexity, but new entrants may
way data is extracted from some lives has a substantial impact on the rights they can assert. find it hard to serve—and monetize—audiences in multiple
jurisdictions.
communities.

PIVOT TO Nearly 400 nonprofit news organizations have launched

since 2009, according to the Institute for Nonprofit News.
The sustainability of new organizations—and especially
those that cover local news—is essential to the smooth
PHILANTHROPY
About half those newsrooms are focused on filling the gaps operation of our democracy. Researchers have consistently
in local news coverage. Those organizations are a bright spot found that when local news organizations fail, civic partici-
in an otherwise bleak media landscape: The same report pation falls and the efficiency of government decreases.
found that about 60% of them grew total revenue between
2021 and 2022. Philanthropic funding will undoubtedly play a bigger role in
bolstering the local news ecosystem in the coming years.
Much of that growth is fueled by a growing community of If foundations and individual donors can provide a runway
WHAT IT IS philanthropists who have prioritized funding news organi- for newsrooms to invest in building distribution channels
zations providing information considered essential for civic that resonate with their audiences, their influence may be
There is an emerging consensus participation. The American Journalism Project raised more trajectory changing. But charitable giving isn’t an alterna-
than $50 million to support local news between 2019 and tive to the hard work of building an audience and finding
that philanthropic funding is 2021. A consortium of top-tier foundations—led by the MacAr- product-market fit.
thur Foundation—is assembling a five-year, $500 million
the future of local news. The investment to improve local news coverage, with aspirations The risk of the current influx of philanthropic funding is
that it could prevent news leaders from finding innovative
philanthropic model aligns to raise more.
revenue models. It is recurring revenue, regardless of source,
with journalists’ mission-driven Pivoting to nonprofit status is also a way to guarantee conti- that will ultimately guarantee that local news organizations
nuity for legacy newsrooms. Masthead Maine, which owned continue to publish.
identity. While raising money most of the newspapers in Maine, sold its papers to the Na-
tional Trust for Local News in July. That move was orchestrated The true cost of providing local news across the United
from foundations and individual to ensure that the papers could continue serving their com- States is likely greater than what philanthropic giving rea-
sonably can—or should—cover. For that reason it’s impera-
donors can keep an organization munities, rather than being sold to a private equity company.
tive for all of us to be invested in the ways media is funded.
afloat, the race to fundraise may Still, the nonprofit journalism sector is only filling a fraction
of the American news problem. At least 2,500 local newspa-
impact the sustainability of the pers have closed since 2005. The news deserts created by
those closing are disproportionately in rural areas that don’t
overall information ecosystem. have deep-pocketed local philanthropists ready to fund a
start-up civic news organization.

DIGITAL THREAT There is a nearly endless list of bad actors interested in

making it harder for journalists to do their jobs. They are
The specific risks and vulnerabilities an organization faces
depend on what it covers. Globally, across all types of news
MODELING particularly at risk for advanced “zero day exploits,” or

hacks that take advantage of previously undiscovered
organizations, even in the United States, forces are trying
to compromise journalists’ security. To protect themselves,
software vulnerabilities. Journalists are also vulnerable to news leaders and individual journalists need to understand
online harassment, including having their personal infor- the types of threats that may target them. That means
mation leaked online. taking commonsense steps to avoid hacking, including
enabling two-factor authentication, but also preparing for
WHAT IT IS
A lawsuit filed by the Knight First Amendment Institute at coordinated harassment attacks that target journalists—es-
Columbia University highlights the risks that some journal- pecially women and members of visible minority groups—
Threat modeling is the process ists can face. The suit alleges that the NSO Group developed
and deployed spyware attacks against the staff of El Faro,
who report on controversial topics.
of identifying and mitigating one of Central America’s premier independent news orga- Publishers also need a playbook to deal with digital harass-
nizations. The lawsuit describes 226 infections with NSO’s ment, since threats can quickly escalate from the virtual
security vulnerabilities. This Pegasus spyware that surreptitiously accessed the devices world into the real world through tactics like doxxing and
process is essential for news and monitored their communications. swatting. Leaders need to consider how they support front-
line correspondents who bear the brunt of this harassment
organizations and individual Not all security risks are high-tech: A newsroom selfie post- in order to support their staff and minimize the impacts.
ed to social media might accidentally leak what investiga-
journalists who face a myriad of tive journalists are working on by capturing the contents In an environment where trust in the media is already low,
threats, from digital harassment of their screen in the background. Other risks stem from it is important for news organizations and their employees
repurposing common objects in unexpected ways. Re- to recognize hacking as a potential source of reputational
to retaliation from private and searchers at Ben-Gurion University found that they could harm. A compromised password isn’t just an inconvenience
government-sponsored hackers. extract the cryptographic keys from a computer using video
footage of the machine’s power LED.
for the IT team: It could be a key to spread misinformation
directly from a news website’s content management system.

DATA-ENRICHED The next generation of digital broadcasting is being devel-

oped today.
Commercial broadcasters are currently the leading pro-
moters of this technology. Their primary interest lies in
BROADCASTING ATSC 3.0 expands on the groundwork laid by ATSC 1.0, which
lets broadcasters transmit high-definition media. The new
data-enriched broadcasting’s potential to enable targeted
advertising—a development that could significantly boost
their revenue and allow them to compete more aggressively
standard will allow for more efficient radio frequency man- against cable channels.
agement, empowering broadcasters to transmit more data
in the same bandwidth. Because radio spectrum remains regulated by the FCC, reg-
WHAT IT IS
ulatory action could nurture non-commercial applications
Despite retaining the standard one-to-many signal structure for this technology. Of significant interest is the capability
of broadcasting, ATSC 3.0 has the capability for personaliza-
The next generation of over- tion, which is achieved through an incorporated internet lay-
to reach areas that don’t currently have reliable cellular or
broadband coverage. With strategically placed ATSC 3.0
the-air broadcast will deliver er. That pairing has the potential to create broadcasts that
are tailored per individual or household. Consequently, it
transmitters, crucial data can be broadcast even in rural
and remote areas. Moreover, while data-enriched broadcast-
richer audio and video with supports targeted advertising based on viewer behavior and ing does not presently support two-way communication, it
preferences, offering a significant advantage to commercial
more efficient management of broadcasters who find themselves in a constant competi-
could be an important backbone for distributing essential
civic information or public safety information during natural
digital spectrum. Planning for tion with cable channels and digital platforms. disasters.
the ATSC 3.0 standard began in One of the most transformative aspects of ATSC 3.0 is its Although ATSC 3.0 is still an emerging standard, now is the
ability to enable native analytics on broadcasting. This
2019 and is still years away from mitigates the reliance on third-party entities like Nielsen for
time to engage with it. There are foundational choices being
made about the tech stack that will power the future of
full adoption. But when it arrives, audience measurement. Instead, broadcasters can directly broadcasting in the near term. Regulators and news leaders
gather and analyze viewer data, unlocking a wealth of re-
its hybrid broadcast-internet al-time insights that improve decision-making and increase
can act now to advocate for prioritizing applications that
benefit the development of an open, reliable information
architecture will open the door competitiveness in an ever-evolving media landscape. ecosystem.
for a new type of information

infrastructure.

SCENARIOS
SCENARIO YEAR 2030
What If We Revitalize Journalism but Don’t Engage the Public?

The influx of funding succeeds in generating a renaissance of local journalism across the United States. From
2024 to 2026, the total number of journalists employed by local news organizations grew, reversing a long-term
decline. Those new jobs came disproportionately in rural communities, which had been hardest hit by the re-
trenchment of local newspapers.
The grant-funded coverage, centered around government accountability and civic participation, satisfied the pri-
mary goals of major foundations, and the desire of reporters to act as a watchdog. But it came at a cost: The deci-
sion to prioritize journalism focused on government and democracy meant that other types of community cover-
age—such as human interest stories and cultural reporting—were under-resourced.
Without the kinds of reporting that let news organizations build an audience and create a sense of place within a
community, civic-minded news organizations wither on the vine. The enthusiasm of major donors for civic infor-
mation is never matched by individual support. The investments that let those organizations hire new reporters
and continue operating is jeopardized because the lack of audience engagement means that all of the reporting
those journalists produce has no impact.
By 2030, journalists look back on the philanthropic funding boom with disdain. Funders have moved on to other
priorities after losing interest in supporting the production of journalism that is rarely read. The local news eco-
system is left weaker than before because most news organizations failed to pursue non-philanthropic avenues to
sustainability. Outside of major population centers, most communities are left without any professional reporters.

AUTHORS &
CONTRIBUTORS

SAM GUZIK Chief Executive Officer

Senior Expert Advisor AMY WEBB
Sam Guzik is a Senior Expert Advisor specializing Managing Director

in the future of news, content, distribution, and MELANIE SUBIN
strategy. His career includes a broad range of
experience in product management, strategic Creative Director
foresight, scenario forecasting, audience EMILY CAUFIELD
engagement, and leadership in legacy news organizations.
Editors
Sam leads the product strategy for a large public media company. Passionate ERICA PETERSON
about building a sustainable future for local news, Sam has demonstrated results
by creating innovative, engaging, and impactful journalism — and thinking about Copy Editor
the business model to support that work. His career includes a broad range of SARAH JOHNSON
experience in product management, strategic foresight, scenario writing, audience
engagement, and leadership in legacy news organizations.
CHERYL COONEY
Guzik is a graduate of Washington University in St. Louis, Columbia University
Graduate School of Journalism, and the NYU Stern School of Business.

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HEALTH CARE • MEDICINE

INDUSTRY HEALTH CARE & MEDICINE
TABLE OF CONTENTS
616 Top Headlines 633 Health Care Administration 648 Molecular Diagnostics 664 Implants, Prosthetics,
and Wearables
617 State of Play 634 Health Data Infrastructure 649 Increased Capabilities of
Point-of-Care Diagnostics 665 Emerging Implants
618 Key Events 635 Defining Patient Access to
Medical Data 650 XR in Diagnostics 666 Emerging Prosthetics
619 Likely Near Term
Developments 636 Increasing Interoperability of 651 Medical Deepfakes 667 Emerging Wearables
Data Infrastructure
620 Why Health Care & 652 Emerging Treatments 668 Mature Wearables
Medicine Trends Matter 637 Automation of Processes
653 Nanobots 669 Research
to Your Organization
638 Increased Cybersecurity
654 AR/VR Therapeutics 670 Synthetic Health Data
621 Opportunities and Threats Threats
655 In-Womb Treatments 671 New Trial Methods
622 Investments and Actions 639 Scenario: Biological Data
To Consider Vaults 656 Cognitive and Neural 672 Lab-on-a-Chip
Optimization
623 Central Themes 640 Remote Care 673 Body-on-a-Chip
657 Microbiomes and Holobionts
625 Ones To Watch 641 In-home Consumer Health 674 3D Bioprinting
Technology 658 Brain-Computer Interfaces and
626 Important Terms 675 Quantum’s Effect
Neuroprosthetics
627 The Business of Health Care 642 Scaling of Telemedicine on Research
659 Precision Medicine 676 Authors
628 Big Tech Disrupts Health Care 643 Remote Patient Monitoring
660 Designing and Extending Life 678 Selected Sources
629 DTC Health Care Models 644 Scenario: The Optimization
Score 661 Phages
630 Health at the Workplace
645 Emerging Diagnostics 662 Expanding Medical Mis- and
631 Considering Health Equity Disinformation
646 Smart Materials
632 Considering Environmental 663 Scenario: A New Kind of High
Impacts of Health Care 647 Biosensor and Chip-Based
Diagnostics

TOP HEADLINES 01 The Barrier Between Digital and Biological Is Vanishing

For better and worse, the merging of digital and biological worlds is enabling
a whole new range of treatments, as well as cyberthreats.
No post-pandemic
relief as economic, 02 Consumers Take Charge of Their Care
environmental, and Increasingly sophisticated consumer-facing sensors and direct-to-consumer

health care services are turning consumers into stewards of their own health.
demographic challenges
strain the health care 03 Understanding How Our Brain Works
Translating brain signals into speech or re-creating images by measuring
sector. brainwaves are just two examples of milestones achieved in neuroscience in 2023.
04 Shifting to an Ecosystem Approach

Researchers and the medical community are turning their attention to ecosystems
in our body (microbiomes) and our environment (holobionts) to analyze our overall
health and make diagnoses.
05 Breakthrough Treatments for Major Diseases

Vaccines that shrink cancer tumors, an inverse vaccine that reverses multiple
sclerosis, and an FDA-approved Alzheimer’s treatment give hope for beating
these diseases.
STATE The fusion of technology with biology has led to remarkable advancements
recently. Scientists have decoded aspects of brain function, enabling ground-
OF PLAY
breaking applications like brain-controlled mobility for paralysis and thought-
to-speech conversion. These innovations, however, raise ethical concerns about
privacy and mind reading and will need thorough regulatory guidelines to be ex-
plored safely. In health care, enhanced sensor technology is revolutionizing early
disease detection and personal health monitoring. The shift toward more proac-
tive, consumer-driven health care is complemented by promising developments
in fighting noncommunicable diseases, such as potential vaccines for cancer
and innovative gene therapies.
Advances in biotechnology,
The study of various body microbiomes is revealing their significant impact on
understanding of body health and disease treatment, highlighting the complex interplay within our
ecosystems, and artificial biological ecosystems and providing opportunity for new perspectives on treat-
ments. In mental health, the worsening crisis is prompting the emergence of
intelligence are reshaping the AI-driven digital health services as an alternative to traditional treatments, al-
global health landscape. though their effectiveness and ethical implications are highly controversial. And
climate change’s far-reaching effects are continuing to strain population health,
due to factors like the spread of disease-carrying insects and lifestyle adjust-
ments in reaction to extreme weather. It is becoming increasingly apparent that
public health strategies need to adapt to meet this rising challenge.

KEY EVENTS
MARCH 11, 2023 J U LY 3 1 , 2 0 2 3 S E P T E M B E R 7, 2 0 2 3
AI Reconstructs Brain Images Electric DNA Manipulation Synthetic Human Embryo

AI reconstructs images people see Scientists trigger insulin Scientists create a human
by analyzing functional magnetic production in a cell through embryo from stem cells
resonance imaging (fMRI). electrical signals. without using sperm or eggs.
M AY 2 0 2 3 AUGUST 23, 2023
Three-Parent Baby Born in UK Brain Signals Are Translated into Speech

To prevent mitochondrial disease in A stroke patient talks through an avatar
the baby, DNA from a donor is added using implanted electrodes that translate
to that of the parents. brain signals.


CHALLENGES FROM ALL SIDES Rising Consumer Expectations New Stakeholder Ecosystems Decreased Access, Quality in Care
The health care system is battling Consumers have increased access to infor- When health care moves to the sphere of the Health care systems are struggling to provide
with increased needs for services, mation about their health, which will affect consumer, through smart devices or medi- sufficient care, especially in rural regions. Tele-
a rise in costs, disruption of sup- their expectations of routine examinations. cal services administered in the home, new medicine offers potential support, but these
ply chains because of geopolitical Professional insights must exceed and service needs that mimic those typically pro- areas often lack the required digital infrastruc-
tensions, and an uptick in diseases incorporate the information available to the vided in a hospital arise. These can be digital ture and medical personnel allowed to reach
consumer directly, or services will be viewed (data analysis) or physical (food delivery, care, them.
based on worsening climate condi- as superfluous. etc.).
tions. Technology is coming to the
rescue but can only accomplish so Novel Health Threats Fight for Patient Data
Fighting Misinformation
much: A fractured data landscape,
lack of infrastructure, and a lack of Social platforms have rolled back their As the effects of climate change worsen, Sensors from consumer-facing smart devices
COVID-19 content moderation policies and disease patterns will change globally: Respi- are becoming more precise and increasing the
data ownership and sharing regula- reduced staff in monitoring departments ratory illnesses will increase in areas exposed type of biological information they can collect.
tion make timely solutions unrealis- in recent rounds of layoffs. The increased to smoke from wildfires, or vector-borne Health care providers need to ensure that they
tic. On the other hand, increasingly amounts of AI-generated content will con- diseases will emerge in regions with rising can access that data to provide adequate ser-
sophisticated patients, thanks to tinue to challenge sharing accurate health temperatures. vices to their patients.
powerful sensors on smart devices, communication.
are actively taking charge of their
own health. As higher expectations
for quality care rise by such patients,
medical professionals need to deliver
an all-encompassing, holistic ap-
proach to their services.

WHY HEALTH CARE & MEDICINE TRENDS MATTER TO YOUR ORGANIZATION
Adjusting to a Shifting Evolving Needs of Older Conquering the Prepare for Disruption Increased Fix-It Care
Landscape Demographics Digital Divide from Big Tech Cybersecurity Threats
The separation between The aging population The shortage of medical Big Tech has prioritized Cyberthreats in the Consumers are more
health care and wellness will require more health personnel is especially delivering medical health care industry have knowledgeable about
is becoming more and care, but their wellness palpable in rural regions services to the population, exponentially increased their physical health and,
more fluid. Patients expect needs to be taken where the necessary with each giant focusing over the last few years, increasingly, their mental
their care to be holistic, into consideration infrastructure for digital on a different facet (e.g., and the trend is unlikely health. They’re more likely
instead of an isolated look as well. Right now, services does not exist cloud services, primary to reverse. Companies to self-diagnose and self-
at medical diagnostics. wellness mainly targets to compensate for the care, smart devices). need to not only think treat, and delay asking for
To access the information demographics up to lack of in-person access. Think about how the about data security help from a professional
from a person’s daily life, middle age, but focusing Finding holistic solutions tech giants’ extended across their entire supply until conditions have
including exercise habits, on the needs of the that include serving these involvement will affect chain but also prepare for progressed. Increasingly,
health care companies elderly, and taking their affected communities relevant ecosystems, emerging threats, such as doctors will need to “fix”
need to consider new tastes and lifestyles into will become increasingly products, and services, biomalware, that cross the treatment and measures
partnerships. consideration, will be a important. and define if competition digital/physical divide. that were self-prescribed,
significant part of the or collaboration are most in addition to treating the
market. beneficial. actual ailment.

Hospital-at-home might alleviate the strain on the health care system, but Think about offering tangential products and services, including digital
it is not clear who is responsible when something goes wrong in the remote therapeutics, as the health care definition expands. They could be in the
environment. The regulatory landscape needs to be sufficiently defined. wellness, food and beverage, or continuous care sectors, as well as education or
products such as apparel or hardware.
Bad actors often access a data ecosystem through a vendor at an
unmonitored point in the supply chain. Ensure that you have visibility into Increase your competitiveness by supporting your employees’ health. Many
not only your own data security but also of anyone exchanging data with you. traditional business-to-consumer entities are now shifting to business-to-
business models, providing companies greater flexibility to think expansively
It’s highly likely that Big Tech will create “walled gardens,” making it difficult about their benefits.
or impossible for any outside stakeholders to partake in their ecosystem.
Companies that don’t have their own data sets will be at a disadvantage. The shift to digitalized care will open up global markets. Look for ways to
optimize your offerings to regional needs and ensure you are fulfilling regulatory
As the cost of health care continuously rises, those that can afford it will opt requirements. New strategic partners in those markets might be needed.
for treatment in other countries with more modest fees or direct-to-consumer
services. The number of patients opting for telehealth care will also increase Deepen the relationship with your customers to set the stage for expanded
as it becomes mainstream. services in the future. Utilize existing customer data and explore how you can
collect more of it so that you can broaden your opportunities for personalized
AI will misdiagnose conditions. Develop processes to double-check AI’s services.
actions to minimize harm. And get clarification on liabilities and relevant
regulation before deploying any new technology. Rethink your product development processes, especially the manual ones.
Investigate how emerging artificial intelligence technologies can speed up
timelines. This will lower the risk of exploring the viability of new products.

1 2 3 4 5 6
Responding to the Developing new Adjust your products and Clean up your data Analyze your supply chain Tech-enabled medical
evolution of the health technologies to keep a services to cater to a storage system to make and consider nearshoring devices need continuous
care space will require new business competitive more health-educated sure it is standardized crucial links to avoid maintenance and
skills. Invest in reskilling or is often quite costly. consumer. Think about how and can be synthesized instability caused by software updates.
upskilling your workforce Instead of focusing on you can provide adjacent with other relevant data geopolitical tensions. As Consider how you can
early, and hire new talent acquisitions to build information and where sources. Simplify the customers increasingly ensure users’ safety even
as needed to proactively in-house capabilities, your product sits within infrastructure to facilitate expect higher degrees beyond the existence
design your path in this connect to an innovation the bigger context of easy data flows within your of personalization, and of your company.
new landscape rather hub that combines experts health and wellness. There ecosystem and to outside personalized care becomes Companies that provide
than having to respond to from public services, the might also be interest in providers, to become an more commonplace, local additional security will
conditions after they have research community, and complementary offerings attractive collaborator, production will enable be a strong decisive
manifested. the startup scene to save that cater to more niche minimize costs, and faster turnaround times factor for patients when
resources. interest groups. maximize the benefit your and more nimble responses choosing a product.
data provides. to custom demands.

CENTRAL THEMES
Synthetic Humans The Empowered Consumer Reversing major diseases
Our bodies are increasingly merging with supporting Health care is seeing the kind of democratization Noncommunicable diseases are on the rise, and the
technology, creating new opportunities and ethical that other fields, namely the creative industries, ex- WHO projects that by 2050, 86% of deaths might be
questions. We are making progress in deciphering how perienced a couple of decades ago. A wider variety of attributed to them. Last year’s scientific discoveries
exactly our brain works: Last year, scientists re-creat- sensors can measure an increasing number of metrics give a glimmer of hope: A pancreatic cancer vaccine
ed sounds and images a person perceived, and for the that we now know signal specific biological develop- shows promise and entered phase 2 of clinical trials.
first time AI could convert a person’s thoughts into ments. These can range from overuse of certain mus- Moderna announced plans to offer vaccines against a
words through noninvasive methods. And we are also cles to early Alzheimer’s detection. The data coming variety of cancers and heart disease by 2030 or soon-
capable of transmitting that deciphered information from our myriad devices is increasingly collected by er. CRISPR-based therapies against Alzheimer’s dis-
within or outside the body, increasingly wirelessly: A health platforms and synthesized and analyzed to give ease were introduced. An inverse vaccine—meaning it
paralyzed man can walk again by wirelessly transmit- us overarching stats of our well-being, and monitor removes the immune system’s memory of a particular
ting his thoughts to move to his legs, a stroke victim developments on an ongoing basis. Direct-to-consum- molecule—shows promise to cure autoimmune dis-
can speak through a digital avatar connected to her er health care and wellness services, such as micro- eases like multiple sclerosis, And in a small study,
brain, and a robot can be controlled through a nonin- biome or stress-level analysis, complement the self- semaglutide eliminated the need to inject insulin in
vasive wearable, a headband. The FDA approved Elon care capabilities. Consumers will not only be able to people with Type 1 diabetes. With initiatives, such as a
Musk’s DeepMind’s request for human trials of brain proactively maintain their health but also have higher task force led by Nobel Prize winner Jennifer Doudna,
implants for paralysis patients. The ethical implica- expectations of the services they receive from health focusing on decreasing the price of gene therapies,
tions of literally reading other people’s minds are yet to care providers. such new treatments could become available for the
be examined, and guardrails are needed to effectively wider public earlier than expected. This could eventu-
protect the most private and personal layers of our ally upend legacy stakeholders whose income is based
human existence. directly or indirectly on traditional treatment of these
diseases.

CENTRAL THEMES
Focus on Interrelationships AI for Mental Health Climate Change Effects on Health
The gut-brain axes, or the gut microbiome, had its mo- As the mental health of large swaths of the population Extreme weather events dominated the news last
ment in the sun in 2023. However, bodies have a num- continues to deteriorate after accelerating during the year. And while it surprises no one that excessive heat,
ber of microbiomes, including in our mouth, skin, and pandemic, and insurance companies refuse to pay ap- ash-laden air from wildfires, or flooding negatively
vagina. Researchers have become increasingly aware propriate rates for mental health services (if they cover impact our physical and mental health, the effects are
of the roles these ecosystems play for our health, diag- them at all), digital health services are trying to allevi- only growing more significant. In China, people had
nostics (Parkinson’s patients have similar gut micro- ate the situation. However, the failure of two significant to isolate in air shelters; in Arizona, they waited until
biomes but so do people who live in the same house- players in 2023—Mindstrong and Pear Therapeutics, night time to go outside; in New York, they had to stay
hold), and treatment (fecal microbiota transplants both offering digital products to diagnose and monitor indoors for extended periods to avoid asthma attacks.
can help treat inflammation in the digestive tract). mental health—showed that effectiveness and valid In Europe, Asian tiger, bush, and yellow fever mosqui-
The same goes for the concept of holobionts, which is business models of these new therapeutic approach- tos are becoming increasingly common as tempera-
exploring health in the context of a host organism and es still need to be explored. Large language models tures warm and humidity rises—in a pattern repeating
its associated communities. While the insight that the seem destined to fill in the gap left by a lack of human in other areas of the world where insects (and other
environment you live in impacts your health is far from therapists, and several AI chatbots focused on mental pathogens) are migrating to new areas and bringing
new, it’s a novel approach to study these ecosystems health were released last year, including Pi, by Mustafa their diseases with them. As climate conditions wors-
from a microbiological perspective and allow it to flow Suleyman’s Inflection AI. But their use is highly con- en, we need to prepare for adjustments in our lifestyle
into medical analysis. However, we are just starting to troversial. The technology has not matured enough to to protect our health, as well as prepare for the new
decipher the workings of the microbiome and how it grasp the nuances of human behavior, and its habit of risks that exposure to new pathogens will bring.
affects the rest of our body. hallucinating is especially harmful when communicat-
ing with vulnerable adults.

ONES TO WATCH
Yu Takagi and Shinji Nishimoto, researchers Dr. Nusrat J M Sanghamitra, founder and Lorenz Hofbauer, Maria Teresa Pisabarro, Matt Anderson-Baron, CEO and co-founder
at Osaka University, for their use of diffusion CEO of CyGenica, for using nanotechnology for and Dr. Vera Hintze, professors at TU Dresden, of Future Fields, for creating the first syn-
models to re-create versions of what a person targeted delivery of cancer drugs that mini- for developing molecules that promote bone thetic biology system that uses fruit flies
has seen by analyzing fMRA scans. mize side effects. regeneration. to produce proteins for affordable CRISPR
therapies.
Jinbo Huang, molecular biologist at ETH Jeffrey Hubbell, professor at the University of Zhuomin Zhang, Ph.D. candidate at City Uni-
Zürich, for developing a device that can acti- Chicago, for developing a vaccine that could versity of Hong Kong, for his development of Philip Roche, CEO of Jenthera Therapeutics,
vate genes through electrical currents, such reverse autoimmune diseases like multiple a piezoelectric biomolecular film that could for developing the CRISPR-based gene thera-
as to trigger insulin production. sclerosis. be used for implantable microdevices. py that uses the fruit fly proteins mentioned
above.
Mishal Mendiratta-Lala, professor of radiol- Gert Cauwenberghs, professor at Univer- Mike Curtis, president and CEO of eGenesis,
ogy at Michigan Medicine, for heading the sity of California, San Diego, for developing for advancing research into xenotransplan- Jennifer Doudna, founder and chair of the
human trial for using sound to destroy liver 3D-printed sensors that can be fused with tation. Innovative Genomics Institute Governance
cancer tumors. earbuds to detect neurodegenerative diseas- Board, for her vision of making genetic thera-
es. Dr. Nicole Robb, co-founder of Pictura Bio, pies affordable and accessible to all.
Debora Marks, professor at Harvard Medical for building a diagnostics platform that can
School, for developing an artificial intelli- Elizabeth Gazda, CEO of Embr Labs, for detect pathogens within a minute based on a Woon-Hong Yeo, researcher at Georgia Insti-
gence tool that can predict virus mutations. developing a wristband that cools the body to digital image. tute of Technology, for creating a device that
counteract menopausal hot flashes. can wirelessly monitor the vascular system
Kevin Barnham, professor at the Florey Insti- Noam Band, CEO of HealthWatch, for devel- in real time without needing batteries or
tute and Austin Health, for developing a way David Baker, director at the Institute for Pro- oping the only remote monitoring garment circuits.
to detect Parkinson’s disease years before tein Design at the University of Washington, that received clearance from the US Food and
physical symptoms show. for developing an AI that can design custom, Drug Administration. John A. Rogers, researcher at Northwestern
functional proteins that could be produced in University, for developing an electromechan-
Marc Goldberg and Christine Carville, live cells. Zhou Nie, professor at Hunan University, for ical system that dissolves after a specific
co-founders of Resilience Lab, for developing developing a DNA-based robot that can walk period of time, reducing electronic waste.
a sustainable model for expanding access to Tae-Jin Kim, associate professor at Pusan Na- on the surface of cells and influence their
therapy through their online platform. tional University, for developing a biosensor behavior. Robert Knight, neuroscientist at the Univer-
that can detect DNA damage in real time. sity of California, Berkeley, for training a com-
puter to analyze brain activity and re-create
the song a person was listening to.

IMPORTANT TERMS
Biomalware Microbiome Nootropics Exoskeleton
Malicious technology or software designed to The collection of microorganisms, like bacteria, Also known as “smart drugs” or cognitive en- A wearable external framework that provides
attack, alter, or exploit biological systems, such as viruses, and fungi, living in and on the human body, hancers, these substances are claimed to improve support and enhances physical capabilities, often
human DNA. It represents a potential cybersecurity crucial for functions like digestion and immune cognitive function, particularly executive func- used for rehabilitation or to assist individuals with
threat in the field of biotechnology, where genetic response, and unique to each individual. tions, memory, creativity, or motivation, in healthy mobility impairments. It can also be employed in
data and biological processes could be manipulat- individuals. They range from naturally occurring industrial or military settings to augment human
ed for harmful purposes. Personalized medicine substances like caffeine to prescription medica- strength and endurance for demanding tasks.
A medical model that customizes patient care tions, and are used with the aim of boosting mental
Electronic health record (EHR) based on an individual’s unique lifestyle and envi- performance. Piezoelectric
A digital system that stores a patient’s comprehen- ronmental factors. It involves tailoring treatments Piezoelectricity refers to the electric charge that
sive medical history, treatment plans, test results, and preventive strategies to achieve optimal health Xenobots accumulates in certain solid materials, like crys-
and other health information. EHRs allow for outcomes for each person. Programmable biological robots, created from liv- tals, ceramics, and biological matter such as bone,
efficient sharing and management of patient data ing cells, typically stem cells from frogs. These tiny in response to applied mechanical stress. This
among different health care providers, enhancing Precision medicine organisms, designed using computer algorithms, property allows for the conversion of mechanical
the continuity and quality of care. A branch of medicine that uses genetic information can perform simple tasks, offering potential ap- energy into electrical energy and vice versa, making
to guide the diagnosis, treatment, and prevention plications in fields like medicine, environmental piezoelectric materials useful in sensors, actuators,
Holobiont of diseases, focusing specifically on the individual remediation, and biological research. and energy harvesting applications.
An ecological unit comprising a host organism and genetic profile of each patient.
the various microorganisms living in or on it, such Xenotransplants
as bacteria, viruses, and fungi. This concept em- Nanobots The process of transplanting organs, tissues, or
phasizes the interdependent relationship between Tiny robotic devices, often at the scale of nano- cells from one species to another, typically from
a host and its microbiome, recognizing them as a meters, designed to perform specific tasks at a animals to humans. This medical procedure is
single, integrated biological entity. microscopic level, such as in medical applications explored as a potential solution to the shortage of
for drug delivery or cellular repair. They operate in human organs for transplantation, with pigs being
the realm of nanotechnology, utilizing advances in the most common donor species due to their phys-
miniaturization and precision engineering. iological similarities to humans.

THE BUSINESS
OF HEALTH CARE

BIG TECH DISRUPTS Despite facing extensive scrutiny regarding its role in the
mental health crisis and access to personal health data,
Big Tech’s involvement in health care is driving the consum-
erization of the industry, and every company has its niche.
HEALTH CARE Meta recently secured patents confirming extensive re-

search in wearable health care solutions that measure
Given its reputation as a lifestyle brand, Apple is focused
on lifestyle and personal wellness. Amazon is prioritizing
biomarkers and brain activity. Apple Watch introduced a primary care. Microsoft is seeking to provide the technologi-
new feature that can measure sun exposure using sensor cal infrastructure for health care, including cloud, analytics,
and GPS technology. And Samsung unveiled its new Open and AI support. Among these companies, Google has the
Innovation Initiative in collaboration with leading univer- most diversified portfolio of products and services: Its prior-
WHAT IT IS sities and academic hospitals to expand its digital health ities have included research, consumer wellness, improving
ecosystem. Seeking to diversify its health services, Sam- health care access, and providing tools and platforms for
Everyone wants their hand in sung is also implementing the B.well Connected Health health care professionals to effectively access and manage
platform, which enables users to create a longitudinal health data. With the introduction of new health care tech-
the health care system. The health record, receive proactive health insights, and access nology on consumer devices, patients have higher expec-
sector faces increasing costs, care from a growing network of providers through a secure tations and expect a more personalized consumer-centric
app. Salesforce has updated its Health Cloud software solu- experience as they become more inclined to prioritize long-
staffing shortages, and an aging tion, including enhancements such as in-home treatment term wellness and preventive care. This shift underscores
population, making it vulnerable scheduling, a data cloud that connects various patient data
sources in real time, and a patient contact center. These
the importance of collecting personal data to provide direct-
ly communicated, personalized solutions to patients.
to disruption. Big Tech companies additions leverage Salesforce’s real-time data, Einstein AI,
and Flow automation technologies to improve patient expe-
are leveraging their user bases, riences and reduce operational costs.
advanced technology, and data
access to offer superior health
care services, filling some gaps in
the system.

DTC HEALTH CARE Increasingly, large retailers are offering health care prod-
ucts and services directly to their consumers. In early 2023,
The retailization of health care is prompting a reinvention of
the traditional primary health model. More than ever before,
MODELS Amazon acquired primary care provider One Medical for

$3.9 billion. Now, the company can offer access to health
consumers are focused on their overall health and wellness,
necessitating products and services that take a holistic
professionals, 24/7 virtual care, and same-day appoint- approach. Subscription-based models are emerging to cre-
ments for less than $200 a year. One Medical’s platform ate more comprehensive platforms, integrating single-use
also includes Mindset, its suite of mental health services, platforms with existing solutions to offer a more inclusive
like virtual therapy and coaching, as well as a variety of pro- experience for consumers and providers. By leveraging dig-
WHAT IT IS grams to help patients reduce stress and anxiety, sleep bet- ital technologies, the primary objective of DTC models is to
ter, and improve their mood. Walgreens is introducing a DTC offer convenience, accessibility, and affordability for a more
Startups and health care telehealth service for consumers in select states to speak diverse consumer population. Akin to the traditional retail
with a health care professional virtually from the comfort of shopping experience, DTC models seek to empower and en-
providers are bypassing their home. If a patient requires medication, Walgreens Vir- gage consumers by giving them more control of their health
traditional intermediaries by tual Health can send that prescription to a Walgreens phar- care decisions. The significance lies in the democratization
macy or have it delivered to their home on the same day. of health care, where consumers can actively participate
adapting direct-to-consumer Costco has partnered with direct-to-consumer marketplace in managing their own health. The US, where digital health
(DTC) health care models, platform Sesame to offer members online health checkups
for as low as $29. Sesame doesn’t accept health insurance,
revenue is the highest, is anticipated to have 370 million
digital health users in 2024, up from 290 million users in
which aim to offer consumers and this new program caters to uninsured Americans or 2022.
those with high-deductible plans. LifeMD and Ascend Thera-
cost savings, convenience, and peutics launched an integrated direct-to-consumer tele-
To keep up with on-demand health care services, stakehold-
accessibility to products and health model for hormone therapy. As nontraditional retail
ers need to seek new, unexpected partnerships, not only
within the tech industry but across different sectors and
companies broaden their footprint to include health care
services. services through DTC models, traditional players are unde-
startups, to create adaptive business solutions.
niably pressured to expand their digital offerings.

HEALTH AT THE Companies of all sizes, from startups to Fortune 500 corpo-
rations, are experimenting with new partnerships to offer
Preventing health issues is more cost-effective than treat-
ing them. While upfront costs may be associated with well-
WORKPLACE employees new health benefits. More than 800 companies

are working with Spring Health, which provides “precision
ness programs, the long-term savings can be substantial.
Health programs can help reduce sick days and absentee-
mental health care” that matches employees to the most ism due to illness. Healthy employees tend to be more pro-
effective care for them. The solution includes mindfulness ductive, exhibiting a higher level of creativity, problem-solv-
and meditation, care navigation, coaching, therapy, and ing ability, and innovative thinking. They have higher energy
medication management. Microsoft initiated a partnership levels, reduced stress, better concentration, and are gener-
WHAT IT IS with Joye, a Singapore-based tech company, to bring mental ally more engaged in their work. When employees see that
fitness capabilities to global users of Microsoft Teams. The their well-being is a priority, it can boost morale and lead to
The Covid pandemic changed the add-on analyzes work patterns to deliver suggestions and higher job satisfaction.
coaching for improved mental health. Transcarent, a com-
way we work. The remote work pany that offers direct access to quality low-cost medical
The shift to remote or hybrid work has only exacerbated
the mental health crisis, prompting discussions about the
environment afforded employees services, announced new partnerships with 10 major health
blurred boundaries between professional and personal life.
systems. Other companies are incentivizing healthy behav-
greater work/life balance, iors and data collection; United Healthcare offers a bene-
While remote work offers flexibility, the growing need for
clear boundaries has led to global action for the “right to
resulting in a reluctance to return fit of up to $1,000 annually for select employers and fully
insured clients in exchange for individual health data, such
disconnect.” The US is slow to adopt, while other countries,
to the office. In seeking solutions, as steps, sleep, and daily activity. And WebMd’s acquisition
like Kenya, are passing legislation to prevent employers
from contacting employees after work hours. Such rules
of Limeade aims to offer a comprehensive well-being solu-
companies are prioritizing tion for organizations. The integration of Limeade’s employ-
can seem impractical due to global operations that span
employee health and well-being. ee feedback solutions with WebMD’s services enables more
time zones, but proponents say they restrict flexibility in an
increasingly asynchronous work environment. Nonetheless,
personalized experiences for holistic well-being. A growing
such actions are arguably necessary to ensure employee
number of employers are seeking solutions to prevent burn-
well-being.
out, costly medical procedures, and health-related absenc-
es.

CONSIDERING Several academia and health care institutions worldwide

have created task forces and research centers to address
Technology offers great potential for addressing health dis-
parities through telemedicine and remote care options, au-
HEALTH EQUITY health disparities. They’re joined by efforts to promote infor-

mation equality, like YouTube Health’s THE-IQ, a video series
tomation of services, and AI-driven analytics—even though
these efforts won’t reach those without digital access. Data
that examines equity in mental health, maternal health, governance is essential for ensuring that technological
and health care access. advancements positively contribute to health equity. Still,
there are downsides, like AI’s proven ability to reinforce bias:
To address health equity, it is crucial to rectify biases in A 2019 study found that a health care risk-prediction algo-
WHAT IT IS
data collection, research, and analysis. The National Insti- rithm used by major insurers extensively underrated the
tutes of Health launched the All of Us research program to health risks of Black patients. As technology aims to stan-
Barriers like global access, cost, collect data from 1 million US citizens and create diverse
medical data sets. The World Health Organization launched
dardize, even improve, quality of care, under- and misrep-
resentation of minority populations in data analysis for clin-
provider availability, and care the Health Inequality Data Repository, the largest collection ical research and trial methodologies must be addressed.
of disaggregated data about health and determinants of
quality limit health care for some. health. The data can be used to assess the state of inequal- A rise in health equity officer roles shows a commitment
Disparities disproportionately ity across featured health topics or settings, conduct ongo- in many companies to identify racism within organiza-
ing monitoring and evaluation, and inform the development tions, work on community partnerships, and review clinical
affecting certain populations can of policies and programs. algorithms for bias. While these sorts of roles used to be
be overcome through investment Rural health is big retail’s latest target, and Uber and
most prominent among hospital systems and state offic-
es, several companies—CVS, Humana, and the NFL Players
and reform of the infrastructure Walmart are making the biggest splash. Uber Health users Association, to name a few—recently hired their first health
covered by eligible Medicare Advantage plans will be able
of universal health systems to to use their benefit cards to pay for nonemergency medical
equity executives or officers as the industry grapples with
global health disparities. In the wake of the growing number
bridge gaps in care. rides and supply delivery through a new partnership with
Optum. Walmart introduced a new institute to expand the
of chief medical officers at Big Tech companies as well as in
the retail industry, health equity positions are expected to
reach of clinical trials to women and underserved commu- follow suit.
nities. Walmart also plans to continue expanding its com-
munity health center footprint by adding 28 new centers in
2024.

CONSIDERING Most hospitals are focused on adopting circular econo-

mies to enhance sustainability by implementing practices
Hospitals account for 8.5% of the US carbon footprint.
Health care laboratories and facilities are inherently ener-
ENVIRONMENTAL that prioritize resource efficiency, waste reduction, and the gy-intensive and water-consuming, and generate substan-
IMPACTS OF
reuse or recycling of materials. Cardinal Health’s Sustain- tial hazardous waste, making them a significant contributor
able Technologies, a leading provider of single-use device to global water shortages, greenhouse gas emissions, and
HEALTH CARE (SUD) collections, reprocessing, and recycling services in

the US, has expanded its facilities, allowing for testing new
pollution. In response, health care organizations globally
continue to actively adopt sustainable measures, including
ways to reprocess medical products. In 2022, the company energy-efficient building designs, renewable energy sources,
WHAT IT IS collected 18.3 million SUDs, diverting more than 5.6 million waste reduction through recycling programs, and effective
pounds of waste from landfills. This reprocessing contrib- hazardous waste management. However, with the continued
Efforts to reduce ecological utes to a circular economy—extending the life of devices to growth of telehealth and remote care options, the indus-
reduce both product cost and waste. A collaboration be- try is poised to greatly decrease its environmental impact.
footprints of health care labs tween the Health Innovation Centre of Southern Denmark, Beyond cost savings and convenience for consumers, the
and facilities are gaining Danish Technological Institute, GMAF Circular Medico, and benefits of telehealth include curbing the carbon emissions
BD is assessing the viability of recycling used blood collec- associated with commuting, minimizing the need for phys-
momentum, with areas like tion tubes, currently disposed of via incineration, to reduce ical infrastructure expansion, and streamlining distribution
water consumption, waste greenhouse gas emissions. The pilot program at Odense
University Hospital aims to demonstrate the reusability of
processes for an optimized supply chain. As the adoption
of telehealth expands, sustainable procurement and man-
reduction, and pharmaceutical plastics in health care facilities. As pressure on hospitals ufacturing practices are gaining traction, with a focus on
systems to reduce their carbon footprint mounts, suppliers sourcing materials with minimal ecological footprints and
development the most readily will need to provide carbon data. Organizations like Vizient optimizing drug production processes. Still, the industry is
available for improvement. Key to are incorporating carbon emissions information into their ripe for change, yielding significant opportunities for inno-
contract templates, so providers can make informed pur- vation from outside the industry.
this effort are advancements in chasing decisions.
remote care.

HEALTH CARE
ADMINISTRATION

HEALTH DATA As of 2021, fewer than 10% of health care organizations had
been utilizing AI for more than five years. As AI advance-
The convergence of electronic health systems and pa-
tient-generated health data herald a new era of personalized
INFRASTRUCTURE ments expand to the health data infrastructure, tools and

platforms to improve process workflow are being intro-
care, leveraging technology to provide a comprehensive view
of an individual’s health. The clinical data of EHR systems
duced into the health care industry. Software as a Medical now seamlessly integrate with patient-generated health
Device can be used to diagnose, monitor, and treat and/ data collected from wearables and apps. This mingling
or prevent medical conditions. Google Cloud introduced an gives providers access to a continuous health narrative. As
AI-powered search capability through the Vertex AI Search patients produce and record real-time data, integration with
WHAT IT IS platform for health care workers to retrieve information their EHRs enables more accurate insights that even con-
from clinical notes, scanned documents, and EHRs, seam- sistent medical appointments cannot provide. Introducing a
More than ever before, we have lessly and efficiently. Microsoft Fabric aims to simplify the greater volume and diversity of health data facilitates more
analytics process through an end-to-end, unified analytics informed and shared decision-making. Essentially patients
greater access to an abundance of platform that integrates various data and analytics tools become active participants in their care as a collaborative
data points that help us evaluate into a single product. relationship in their health needs forms.
individual health and well-being. Patient-generated health data refers to information like But this integration poses challenges for the health care
And yet, getting a complete picture vital signs, symptoms, and lifestyle details generated by data infrastructure. Seamless integration requires interop-
patients themselves. Health technology platform Folia erability between EHR systems and the disparate sources
of our overall health continues to Health is expanding its patient-reported data collection to of patient-generated health data, leading to investments
be a challenge. The widespread include multiple sclerosis, Huntington’s disease, and myas- in robots, health information exchange (HIE) platforms,
adoption of AI is playing a pivotal thenia gravis. Patients and caregivers can use it to capture
their daily observations of treatment response and disease
APIs, and standardization efforts. Integration efforts must
be scalable and able to safeguard the growing volume and
role in connecting the dots between progression. And Oracle is expanding its partnership with variety, and sensitivity of health data. Harnessing the full
EHR systems and patient-generated Zoom to enhance telehealth services; the collaboration will potential of integrated health data ushers in a new era of
connect Zoom’s telehealth capabilities with Oracle Cerner preventive and personalized health care.
health data to provide a more Millennium, so providers can seamlessly join patient ap-
comprehensive, real-time, and pointments with relevant EHRs.
personalized view.

DEFINING PATIENT In April, Washington state’s governor signed the My Health

My Data Act, a first-of-its-kind consumer health data law
The debate about patient ownership of health records con-
tinues to grow, with some arguing that not all health data is
ACCESS TO that requires explicit consent to collect and share con-

sumer health data. Aimed at addressing gaps not covered
generated by the patient and should therefore not belong to
the patient. While the EU’s General Data Protection Regu-
MEDICAL DATA by the Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act

(HIPAA), the law prevents traditional advertising practices
lation and HIPAA do not explicitly define ownership rights,
they acknowledge patients as data subjects, giving them
while even prohibiting some, like geofencing around health increased ownership, including the right to access their
care facilities. Following suit, several other states, including medical data and restrict its use by other parties.
WHAT IT IS California, Colorado, Connecticut, Utah, and Virginia, have
As technology has shifted the way that health data is
taken action to strengthen protections of personal health
Amid the increased volume of data. Similar laws aim to safeguard consumers from the
produced and collected, a greater volume of data exists.
Patient-generated health data allows for more accurate
unwarranted sale of personal health information. In 2023,
patient-generated data due to safeguarding action was taken against several companies,
real-time data to be collected outside of clinical environ-
ments. Access to this information can be game-changing,
recent innovations, policymakers including Costco, BetterHelp, and Premom, which were
and lead to further innovations in the industry. Researchers
accused of selling private patient information. In Europe,
are grappling with the need for legislators still debate how the European Health Data Space
and pharmaceutical and biotech companies also face a
paradigm shift: With consumers in control of their personal
revised regulations and policies (EHDS) regulates the secondary use of health data, such as
sharing for research purposes or policymaking. The EHDS
data, these institutions may need to leverage incentives to
that will address the evolving aims to provide a single market for electronic health record
access the data necessary for their work. Trust and con-
sumer sentiment will likely play a role in whether access
systems, medical devices, and AI systems while enabling
landscape of health data EU citizens to share and have access to their health data
is granted. The changes may usher in new intermediaries
ownership and privacy. across borders.

to facilitate data access, to service this need on behalf of
institutions.

INCREASING The Office of the National Coordinator for Health Informa-

tion Technology (ONC) reported increased hospital engage-
Limited data exchange has been a growing issue since med-
ical providers first implemented EHRs, and many benefits
INTEROPERABILITY OF ment in key interoperability domains, with 6 in 10 hospitals

actively participating in information sharing and integrat-
can be realized by facilitating the rapid exchange of health
information. This approach can optimize human capital,
DATA INFRASTRUCTURE ing summary of care records into EHRs. This is promising,
as the ONC advances data sharing and interoperability
patient-centric care, and public health emergency prepared-
ness. Providers will experience reduced turnaround times,
through the 21st Century Cures Act. The office’s proposed enabling them to render higher-quality care services to their
provisions, known as HTI-1, focus on implementing the EHR patients. Patients will be more engaged in self-managing
WHAT IT IS reporting program and revise the ONC Health IT Certification their well-being. The public will also benefit from early de-
Program. Most notably the changes expand exceptions to tection and prevention of disease outbreaks.
The fragmented state of information-blocking regulations in support of information
Despite this, achieving interoperability is a complex chal-
sharing.
the health care industry’s lenge. Overcoming these challenges will require a willing-
Among companies, Philips achieved enhanced interoper- ness of stakeholders to collaborate on information ex-
infrastructure is a result of the ability between its Capsule Medical Device Information Plat- change. Blockchain-based HIEs, like MedRec, OmniPHR, and
incompatibility between health form and the Patient Information Center iX, giving hospitals MeDShare have gained traction, as have Fast Healthcare In-
the ability to synthesize data from a variety of non-Philips teroperability Resources, like Google Cloud, Epic, Cerner, and
care devices, applications, and devices—like third-party vital sign monitors, ventilators, Allscripts. These are promising tools to facilitate seamless
information systems, which and infusion pumps—and view the information on a single, data exchange and collaboration among health care provid-
standardized interface. CareSource IT addresses health care ers. However, ensuring the security and privacy of patient
hinders the seamless exchange data interoperability challenges through API utilization. data remains a paramount concern. Governments are likely
of patient data and information. Michigan Health Information Network Shared Services and
Amazon Web Services are launching Interop.WORLD, a virtu-
to regulate interoperability standards and practices, with
US compliance requirements like HIPAA and the Cures Act
Increasing interoperability is a al innovation center focused on health care interoperability. shaping the landscape. Financial constraints and varying
The center plans to host challenges using an open-source levels of readiness, especially for smaller providers, pose
necessary and welcome change. health data sandbox to encourage developers and organi- challenges in adopting the necessary infrastructure and
zations to design cloud-based health care IT solutions that technologies, potentially leading to industry consolidation.
support interoperability.

AUTOMATION OF Last year saw a rise in AI-generated note-taking tools as

several companies, including Microsoft and Amazon,
Automation, driven by technologies such as AI and robot-
ic process automation (RPA), leads to greater efficiency,
PROCESSES launched their versions. Microsoft-owned Nuance Commu-

nications released its Dragon Ambient eXperience Copilot,
accuracy, and improved patient outcomes. Administrative
tasks, appointment scheduling, billing, and data entry,
which is integrated with large language model GPT-4 and which traditionally demanded significant human resources,
automatically drafts clinical summaries of conversations can now be streamlined. Though there is an upfront cost
with patients conducted in an exam room or via telehealth. for adoption, the automation of processes will save time
Amazon Web Services introduced HealthScribe, a new HI- and preserve limited staff. Automation enables health care
WHAT IT IS PAA-eligible service that leverages speech recognition and providers to focus more on direct patient care. Moreover, in
generative AI to automatically create preliminary clinical clinical settings, AI-driven tools aid in diagnostics, treat-
Automation is transforming documentation from patient-clinician conversations. Mic- ment planning, and personalized care, leveraging vast data
rosoft’s cloud division Azure is releasing a new functionality sets to identify patterns and make data-driven predictions.
health care, making the industry for clinical report simplification. With the use of generative Automation promises a minimal standard of care, reinforc-
more efficient and reliable. Big AI, the tool simplifies clinical jargon so patients can better ing adherence to regulation and quality assurance.
understand medical information. OpenLoop’s API-driven
Tech is championing workforce platform can be aligned to meet workflow needs and se-
automation while introducing curely houses patient personally identifiable information
with its built-in HIPAA compliance software.
process efficiency solutions for
XTend Robotics has developed patented robot technology to
appointment scheduling, billing, deploy modular service robots that can adapt to any indus-
supply chain management, try. Multitasking intelligent robots can be used in hospitals
and ambulatory care facilities to interact with patients,
health management, admissions automating the check-in and vitals collection process. In-
creasing efficiency over 70%, the robots take dictation and
and discharges, follow-up care, automatically update patients’ files on the facility’s EHR
prescription management, quality system.
assurance, and compliance.

INCREASED In a Ponemon Institute survey of 653 health care IT and

security practitioners, 88% of respondents reported ex-
PwC’s Global Digital Trust Insights survey reveals a concern-
ing trend: Businesses experiencing data breaches resulting
CYBERSECURITY periencing an average of 40 cyberattacks within the past

12 months. A significant number of large companies have
in damages exceeding $1 million jumped from 27% to 36%
in the past three years. While traditional threats like ran-
THREATS experienced some sort of a breach. PharMerica, operated by

parent company Bright Spring Health, disclosed a breach
somware, DDoS, and social engineering persist, emerging
cyberattack categories include biomalware, medical deep-
to the Office of Civil Rights in May that impacted more than fakes, and machine learning simulations mimicking users’
5.8 million people. Managed Care of North America suffered digital activities. Of particular concern is biomalware tar-
WHAT IT IS a major data breach that lasted nearly two weeks, impact- geting and manipulating biological systems, such as DNA.
ing 8.8 million people. Henry Schein, distributor of medical This biomalware can take various forms, such as viruses or
Cybersecurity concerns are on and dental supplies, announced a cybersecurity attack Trojan horses operating at the genetic or cellular level, and
that caused the company to take systems offline. 23andMe can be used to disrupt research, harm individuals, or access
the rise, and the threat to health issued a notice of data concerns due to suspicious activity genetic information.
care organizations, information at its operations in October. Perry Johnson & Associates, a
AI-powered security solutions have introduced ground-
US medical transcription service, fell victim to a cyberat-
systems, and patient safety are tack that exposed highly sensitive information of 9 million
breaking features, such as continuous threat monitoring,
anomaly detection, predictive analysis, and vulnerability
substantial. According to IBM’s patients, the second-largest after HCA Healthcare’s 11 mil-
lion-record earlier in the year. And a new ransomware threat,
assessment. AI’s ability to process vast amounts of secu-
Cost of Data Breach 2023 Report, NoEscape, has targeted the health care industry. Despite
rity data can predict vulnerabilities and automate patch
management. AI is especially adept at identifying zero-day
being new to the landscape, the ransomware group has very
the global average cost of a data rapidly made a name for itself. In response to the increase
exploits, when an attacker identifies a software vulnerability
breach in 2023 was $4.45 million, in threats, UC San Diego School of Medicine was awarded
even before the vendor has become aware of it. A first-of-its-
kind unified security platform, Microsoft Security Copilot
$9.5 million to research cybersecurity in health care and
a 15% increase over three years. launched its Center for Healthcare Cybersecurity, which will
integrates tools for automatic detection and response.
Recently IBM introduced Threat Detection and Response
focus on identifying early indicators of cyberthreats using
Services, an AI-enabled service delivering 24/7 monitoring,
simulated ransomware.
investigation, and automated remediation of security alerts
across hybrid cloud environments.

SCENARIOS
SCENARIO YEAR 2040
Biological Data Vaults

To increase data security and enable environmentally sustainable storage of our data, a new solution emerged in the early 2030s: encoding sensitive informa-
tion directly into human DNA. This technique, which leverages the vast data storage capacity and unique personal signature of DNA, converts critical data such
as medical and financial records into nucleotide sequences. The approach transforms individuals into secure carriers of their own encrypted information.
But recently, this innovative system became the focal point of a sophisticated cyberattack, orchestrated by a rogue state-sponsored hacking group to under-
mine trust in this new technology and to extract high-value information for espionage and financial gain. The attack employed a digital virus specifically tai-
lored to breach the interface between biological and digital security systems. It was introduced into the population through common medical channels, such as
standard blood tests or vaccines, using genetically modified vectors to deliver the payload.
Once inside the host, the virus lay dormant until remotely triggered. Upon activation, it employed complex algorithms to decode the encrypted data stored with-
in the DNA and converted it back into a digital format. The virus harnessed the body’s bioelectrical system, which is primarily generated through the activity of
neurons and the body’s way to communicate internally, to transmit this data to the attackers, leaving no physical evidence of the breach. The modified electrical
signals the neurons produce because of the virus are received by sensors specifically designed to detect and interpret these bioelectrical patterns.
Once the data was extracted, the hackers engaged in a dual-pronged approach: They sold sensitive personal and financial information on the dark web, target-
ing high-net-worth individuals and key corporate figures for identity theft and financial fraud. They also exploited corporate and governmental data, which was
stored in the DNA of leadership individuals, for espionage, seeking competitive intelligence and state secrets to threaten overall geopolitical security.

REMOTE
CARE

IN-HOME It’s easier than ever for consumers to measure and mon-
itor their digital biomarkers. Freestyle Libre’s continuous
Biosensors, compact devices designed to detect biological
elements and convert them into measurable signals, are
CONSUMER HEALTH glucose monitoring wearable sensors received FDA clear-

ance for connectivity with automated insulin delivery
increasingly finding their way into homes. Imagine furniture
textiles that measure vital signs to predict minor sickness
TECHNOLOGY systems. Abbott is introducing Lingo, a wearable that will and maintain body temperature, toothbrushes that detect
measure glucose levels for people without diabetes and dehydration and make dietary recommendations, optical
deliver personalized plans for healthier habits. Somavedic sensors in televisions that can detect stress and cognitive
Technologies launched the Attune Health app, which takes decline, windows that can measure vitamin D deficiency
WHAT IT IS AI-enabled biomarker analysis of blood pressure, heart rate, and control smart light bulbs in response, smart plumbing
oxygen saturation, stress levels, and hemoglobin based on that can filter bacteria from the water supply, and air pu-
Digital biomarkers are behavioral a facial scan on a smartphone camera. It measures changes
rifiers that measure clean oxygen supply and recommend
houseplants to improve air quality. Whether these sensors
in red, green, and blue light reflected from the skin. The Gao
and physiological data, such as Lab at the California Institute of Technology introduced a
are integrated with wearable devices or standalone units, the
technology offers a comprehensive view of our well-being by
heart rate, blood pressure, body finger patch for microfluidic sweat sampling of estradiol.
tracking vital signs and other health parameters in real-time.
Only requiring a miniscule amount of sweat, the device con-
temperature, sleep patterns, sistently learns and recalibrates based on salt levels, skin
Revolutionizing personal health care management, biosen-
sors empower users to make informed decisions for fostering
and physical activity, collected temperatures, and sweat pH. The team is working to minia-
turize the sensor for placement in a ring, as the device can
preventive health care.
through digital devices. Smart already wirelessly communicate with an app. While the integration of biosensors into everyday life offers
unprecedented benefits, it raises concerns about data secu-
home technology is evolving Today’s digital biomarkers are not limited to wearables; rity and privacy. Given the ability to generate vast amounts of
to facilitate the monitoring of they’re also making their way into the infrastructure of the
home. With the U-Scan from Withings, a sensor is placed
data, there are necessary ethical considerations surrounding
data usage. Our homes will play a crucial role in health man-
digital biomarkers, creating an under the rim of a toilet bowl to measure biomarkers and agement, and if the health data infrastructure can overcome
metabolites in a person’s urine. A recently approved patent
integrated ecosystem for health application shows that Apple, which purchased Finnish
challenges stemming from data standardization and in-
teroperability, expect to see further development supporting
information that complements technology company Beddit, is developing an in-bed sensor holistic sensor ecosystems. In 2022, the global market for
system to collect physiological data during sleep. biosensors was valued at $26.8 billion, and it is projected to
wearables. grow significantly in the coming years.

SCALING OF The global telehealth market is on track to achieve re-

markable growth due to increasing technology adoption.
Consumers are increasingly comfortable with telemedicine
options. In a recent study, 55% of patients expressed more
TELEMEDICINE AI and machine learning play a crucial role, by providing

personalized, predictive, and preventative guidance, which
satisfaction with virtual visits than in-person visits. Rural
communities and underserved populations stand to gain
has helped telehealth evolve beyond primary health vir- the most as health care providers expand their reach and
tual consultations to encompass virtual pharmaceutical, fill gaps in care delivery caused by provider shortages and
translation, and surgical services. The Midday app facil- limited facilities. And there’s potential for cost reduction on
itates direct communication to promote healthy aging. both ends of the spectrum: Subscription services, available
WHAT IT IS Aimed at supporting menopausal women, the end-to-end with or without insurance, are more affordable, while pro-
platform evaluates menopause progression to deliver viders benefit from the savings associated with not main-
Telemedicine leverages personalized insights, and evidence-based strategies and taining physical offices. Investments in telehealth have also
education. Amazon’s RxPass, a $5-per-month subscription, expanded to specialty care, and the future of telemedicine
technology for remote health offers affordable and convenient pharmacy services with- could include extended reality (XR) technology offering more
care delivery. While the Covid out insurance. Subscribers can have generic medications lifelike virtual interactions, especially for remote surgery.
for more than 80 common health conditions sent to their
pandemic initially prompted home. Voyce introduces professional language interpret-
But access remains a big hurdle due to challenges related
to digital technology access and connectivity. Zero-latency
the emergence of remote care ers, enabling real-time medical interpretation in more than
240 languages, including American Sign Language. The
connectivity is essential for virtual visits, as it ensures re-
options,the trend is clearly here technology seamlessly integrates with EHRs, automatically
al-time guidance and critical decision-making without de-
lay. Starlink provides almost global satellite coverage, and
documenting sessions for future reference. In Singapore,
to stay and will even expand a groundbreaking robotic telesurgery trial utilized Japan’s
Amazon launched Project Kuiper, a satellite system aimed
beyond primary health. The first surgical robot. It remotely performed a gastrectomy
at providing high-speed internet access globally. With the
promise of reliable access to broadband, the system’s suc-
from a Singapore-based surgeon cockpit, with movements
market is forecasted to be transmitted and replicated by a robotic unit in Japan. This
cess will be a game changer for achieving interoperability.
The attainment of global connectivity is poised to reduce
valued at $460 billion by 2030. collaboration represents a pivotal stride in making remote
the prevalence of medical tourism, by making telemedicine
surgeries accessible to patients, demonstrating the trans-
a more reliable and accessible alternative.
formative potential of telehealth.

REMOTE PATIENT Increasingly, health data can be transmitted to providers from

anywhere, and companies are offering new services to take ad-
RPM harnesses digital technologies in the continuous collection
and transmission of patient health data, allowing patients to
MONITORING
vantage of the trend. A new hospital-at-home program from Best receive necessary care anywhere. The ability to facilitate prompt
Buy collaborating with Atrium Health sends members of the retail interventions makes it particularly valuable for managing chron-
giant’s Geek Squad to patients’ homes; they set up technology ic conditions, monitoring postoperative recovery, and delivering
that remotely monitors heart rate, blood oxygen level, or other vi- ongoing home-based care. Particularly pertinent as the population
tals, and train patients and caretakers to use the devices. The tech ages, RPM ensures a higher quality of life for geriatric adults by
then securely shares the data with doctors and nurses through the enabling hospital-level care in the comfort of their homes, with
telemedicine hub from Current Health, a UK-based tech company. medical-grade equipment and remote monitoring tools. Hospi-
WHAT IT IS
There’s also Cardinal Health’s Velocare, a supply chain network tal-at-home services offer significant cost savings for health care
for the fulfillment of care devices and products. In coordination systems by curbing hospital admissions and emergency room vis-
with care teams, Cardinal Health facilitates seamless delivery of its through early intervention and improved disease management.
As the population ages, remote medical essentials to home care patients, eliminating challenges Patients also benefit from increased engagement in their health
in transitioning hospital care to a patient’s home. monitoring through better outcomes. As such there has been a
patient monitoring (RPM) growing adoption of hospital-at-home devices and telemedicine
On the equipment side, Noccarc’s smart ventilator enables re-
is increasingly relevant for al-time remote monitoring of patient conditions. Physicians can
technology in senior care and assisted living facilities, where the
integration of these innovations enhances on-site care for resi-
achieving a higher quality of seamlessly access vital patient information through a propri-
etary app-based platform, even when patients are not physically
dents. Though broader adoption in patients’ homes has been slow,
this hesitance is likely due to space constraints or limited support
life. RPM ensures continuous present in the ICU. BioPix-T launched Pebble, a portable diagnostic
device to facilitate connections between health care providers
(i.e., family members, nurse aides) preventing consumers from
feeling comfortable or safe receiving care outside clinical facilities.
communication between and patients: It enhances access to the tools needed to detect and
monitor infectious diseases and health issues despite geographic
patients and their health care location. Sleepiz, a Zurich-based medtech company, received FDA
clearance for its Sleepiz One+, a contactless bedside device that
provider team by utilizing digital measures respiratory and heart rates.
technologies and devices to Researchers at NYU Langone Hospital have also launched the
Diabetes in Pregnancy Remote Patient Monitoring Program. The
collect and transmit patient pilot program has supported 1,000 patients at risk for gestational
diabetes with digital glucose monitors that automatically trans-
health data outside of traditional mit daily glucose levels to EHRs for review by the maternal-fetal
health care settings. medicine team.

SCENARIOS
SCENARIO YEAR 2035
The Optimization Score

The health care industry’s lethargy in responding to change led the Big Tech companies to fill the void with cheaper, higher quality, and more price-transparent
products and services. Already trusted partners in a personal and professional context through their hardware and software products, integrating health care of-
ferings was actually welcomed as it facilitated a holistic and seamless approach to optimizing quality of life.
The digital ecosystems continually capture and synthesize health data from a myriad of sources: wearable devices, smart home systems, and even public infra-
structure. AI health platforms meticulously analyze this data, and synthetic “health coaches” offer tailored suggestions to optimize physical and mental well-be-
ing. This constant monitoring and guidance ensure that individuals are not just living but thriving, under the vigilant eye of technology.
To incentivize healthier living and alleviate the strain on health systems, a health scoring system was introduced, reminiscent of the credit scores of the early 21st
century. The Health Score, a dynamic and comprehensive metric, reflects an individual’s health habits, lifestyle choices, and overall well-being. Initially devised
as a tool for personal motivation and friendly competition, it quickly evolved into a societal benchmark, a digital ledger of one’s health consciousness. The Health
Score is not just a number; it’s a reflection of one’s commitment to a healthy lifestyle, tracked and fostered by ever-present AI.
This scoring system has profound implications on everyday life. High scorers enjoy perks ranging from priority in job applications and access to exclusive ameni-
ties, to favorable terms on loans and insurance policies. Displayed on digital profiles and wearable device screens, the score has become a status symbol, a digital
badge of honor showcasing a person’s dedication to health. In contrast, those with average or low scores, or those who opt out of this system, find themselves at a
significant disadvantage. They face hurdles in securing employment, higher premiums, and restricted access to certain societal privileges. The Health Score, while
not mandatory, has become a de facto requirement for a comfortable and prosperous life.

EMERGING
DIAGNOSTICS

SMART MATERIALS Right now, the field is focused on overcoming manufactur-

ing challenges that hinder scaling of smart textiles. In col-
Embedding sensors into textiles is a minimally invasive av-
enue to collect data about daily activity and environmental
laboration with researchers at the University of Cambridge, exposure. Compared to wearables, smart materials are more
scientists from Aalto University have incorporated liquid versatile, adaptable, and less disruptive to consumers’ lives.
crystalline elastomer yarns into woven textiles to create Their integration lets consumers receive real-time feedback,
a reactive fabric that responds to heat. At Purdue Univer- promoting healthier habits. And their ability to generate
sity, researchers are looking at smart fabric breathabili- substantial data offers valuable insights for continuous
ty, as it is associated with comfort: They’ve developed a health monitoring, early detection of medical conditions,
WHAT IT IS patent-pending method of coating everyday fabrics with and remote patient care. Scientists are considering ways to
polymer electronic sensors, PEDOT, using a technique called monitor and respond to biological hazards and environmen-
Incorporating sensors into oxidative chemical vapor deposition. MIT researchers have tal conditions, including air quality, pollution levels, and
used a unique plastic yarn to create a knit textile, 3DKnITs, radiation exposure. Advancements in materials and pro-
textiles offers noninvasive that when interspersed with sensors using a novel digital duction methods suggest that smart textiles could greatly
data collection for advanced knitting technique, can continuously detect multipoint reshape the industry.
pressure across its surface in real-time. A new cotton-based
health monitoring and analysis. conductive thread, PECOTEX, developed by scientists at the
Researchers are exploring innovative materials, such as
spider silk and elastomers, and cost-effective production
The smart textiles market Imperial College of London, embeds a low-cost sensor (just
15 cents per meter of thread) to monitor breathing, heart ac-
methods, including traditional industrial knitting ma-
is expected to grow to $6.6 tivity, and even gases like ammonia. Israel-based company
chines. But challenges with scaling production have pre-
vented smart textiles from flooding the market just yet.
HealthWatch has emerged as a pioneer in the development
billion by 2026. But scalability of smart-digital garments, particularly with its develop-
Concerns have also arisen regarding the potential effects of
presents formidable challenges, ment of the Master Caution. The only 12-lead ECG smart
increased electromagnetic field exposure. At this juncture,
the military is expected to account for a sizable amount of
clothing that has been cleared by the FDA, Master Caution
as these textiles must be able is a sensor-rich textile garment that provides continuous
the market for smart textiles, as applications include en-
hanced insulation, motion tracking and GPS, and advanced
to endure prolonged use while cardiac monitoring.
health monitoring. For the broader population, smart tex-
continuing to deliver accurate tiles hold immense promise in the shift toward personal-
ized care and holistic health.
measurements.

BIOSENSOR AND Researchers are developing new tools using biosensors to

uncover new biological insights. Wireless earbuds, devel-
Biosensors offer a paradigm shift in patient diagnosis
through the early detection of medical conditions. Recent
CHIP-BASED oped by MindMics and Scripps Research Institute, use

embedded sensors to record heartbeat vibrations once
advancements are focused on highly sensitive and versatile
sensors capable of performing multiple tests simultane-
DIAGNOSTICS
a second to indicate heart disorder and abnormalities. ously despite the presence of different biological particles
Researchers at Ohio State University designed a wearable at varying concentrations. Biosensors have application in
sensor, resembling a blood pressure cuff, to detect mus- industries where precise and rapid detection of harmful
cular atrophy. The device embeds transmitting and receiv- substances is crucial. Beyond a clinical setting, biosensors
WHAT IT IS ing coils in a flexible fabric to measure deterioration as it can be used to detect contaminants and pathogens—for
stretches to a person’s movement. example, spoilage indicators in food products, or pollutants
Biosensors recognize biological An international team led by the Gwangju Institute of Sci- and toxins that affect air and water quality.
material as it binds to a ence and Technology has proposed a synergistic biosensing

tool called DeepGT. It leverages AI in Gires-Tournois biosens-
With the acceleration of point-of-care diagnostics, re-
searchers are working on the development of microfluidic
specified target and convert ing platforms to quantify nanoscale bioparticles, includ-
chips with embedded biosensors for greater precision. The
ing viruses, without needing complex sample preparation
the biological response into a methods. The system can also indicate the severity of the
integration of these concepts in a highly sensitive portable
device paves the way for remote diagnostics. As biosensors
detectable signal. Advanced infection including if it’s asymptomatic.
are increasingly incorporated into wearable and in-home
data analysis and machine A Malmö University researcher developed a wireless bat-
tery-free biosensor powered by induction from a cellphone.
devices for continuous monitoring, the need for frequent
in-office or hospital visits decreases.
learning techniques are being A nanoscale sensor system, put together by a team at the
University of Toronto and Northwestern University, iden-
integrated with biosensors tifies biomarkers by exploiting DNA aptamers to detect
to enhance diagnostics by clinical levels of a marker protein for cardiovascular disease
without using external reagents. And Hememics Biotechnol-
recognizing patterns and trends ogies and General Graphene have partnered to produce 32-
in large data sets. plex graphene biosensor chips, tested to be 100 times more
sensitive than lateral flow devices; the chips can detect
pathogens from one sample of blood or saliva.

MOLECULAR At the University of Oxford, researchers have innovated a

method for protein analysis to efficiently build protein
In infectious disease control, molecular diagnostics are piv-
otal for rapidly and accurately detecting viruses and bacte-
DIAGNOSTICS inventories of single cells and tissues. This new categori-

zation method makes it easier for doctors to identify the
ria. This capability is critical for implementing timely public
health measures, and techniques like polymerase chain
protein variants associated with disease on an individual reaction, DNA sequencing, and microarrays enable the early
basis. Genomic sequencing company Illuma developed detection often before symptoms manifest. This allows for a
PrimateAI-3D, which is trained to make predictions based shift in focus toward developing informed treatment plans
on genome analysis and scans 70 million genetic variants rather than simply identifying the problem. Harnessing
WHAT IT IS in a person’s genome to detect harmful variants. Illumina CRISPR, researchers have developed highly specific tests for
plans to release the tool broadly, after completing testing detecting genetic mutations, pathogens, and various mo-
Molecular diagnostics leverage on the UK BioBank. While identification and analysis are key lecular markers. The integration of CRISPR into biosensors
to preventative diagnostics, just as important is recogniz- has further advanced on-site testing capabilities, fostering
the sensitivity and accuracy ing abnormal activity. Researchers at Weill Cornell Medicine the creation of rapid and accurate point-of-care diagnostic
of CRISPR technology to have developed a novel method for organ mapping that tools. Notably, scientists used CRISPR in the development of
analyze genetic material for could inform the design of future treatment and interven-
tions. Spatial PrOtein and Transcriptome Sequencing can
rapid tests for detecting Covid.
early detection of disease, record gene activity patterns, identify key proteins, and map
Anticipating a fundamental shift in health care practices,
molecular diagnostics, augmented by AI and nanotech-
aiding timely intervention. precise locations of cells in tissue samples.
nology, is set to become routine in patient care. Efforts are
The application of CRISPR in An increasing number of health care institutions, like underway to enhance user-friendliness and cost-effective-
developing advanced molecular UCSF Benioff Children’s Hospital, are implementing in-
house rapid whole genome testing to assess and diag-
ness for accessibility across different health care settings,
and even at-home use. Integration with wearables and
diagnostic tools enables nose risk for infants with suspected genetic diseases. telemedicine platforms is on the horizon. The prospect of
interventions based on individual Ultra-high-throughput gene sequencers aim to make whole full-genome screening tests for newborns and infants is
genome sequencing more affordable, as two companies, gaining momentum, with studies showing whole-genome
genetic profiles and opens up Ultima and Complete Genomics, introduce platforms that sequencing to be much more effective than targeted gene
more effective and precise health lower costs to less than $100 per genome. sequencing in identifying abnormalities responsible for
genetic disorders.
care strategies.

INCREASED Polish telemedicine startup Healthnomic offers an at-home

polygraph examination to remotely diagnose and treat
POC diagnostics offer immediate on-site medical testing
with results made available in real time. Common exam-
CAPABILITIES OF POINT- obstructive sleep apnea, by gathering data in a patient’s

natural sleeping environment. GrapheneDx is harness-
ples are rapid tests to identify infectious diseases (used
to combat the Covid pandemic), pregnancy tests, and
OF-CARE DIAGNOSTICS ing graphene in developing urine-sample tests to detect

sexually transmitted diseases within minutes. A new facial
glucose monitoring. Unlike traditional laboratory testing
that involves sending samples to centralized facilities, POC
recognition software for germs, developed by Oxford scien- diagnostics bring testing to the patient, minimizing de-
tists and licensed by Pictura Bio, is a universal diagnostic lays in triage and treatment. They reduce the workload on
WHAT IT IS imaging platform that identifies the presence of pathogens central laboratories, by addressing backlogs and delays in
in a nasal or throat swab sample in seconds. Quest Diag- test results. In resource-limited settings, where access to
Conveniently performed nostics has introduced the AD-Detect test for Alzheimer’s sophisticated laboratory infrastructures is limited, POC di-
disease, a blood-based biomarker test available for pur- agnostics present a new level of care. In developing worlds,
near a patient, point-of-care chase by consumers. AD-Detect overcomes current diagnos- POC diagnostics could make a difference in the rapid spread
(POC) diagnostics offer speed, tic methods—limited by the need for specialized clinics and of disease.
convenience, and accessibility. trained staff—through an in-home blood test that deter-
mines risk for developing Alzheimer’s disease by measuring
Integral to telemedicine and remote monitoring, POC allows
Now, smartphone-enabled POC abnormalities of beta-amyloid protein. At-home diagnos-
health care providers to assess patients’ conditions and
make decisions without the need for in-person visits. Re-
devices enable real-time data tics startup Viome Life Sciences has launched Oral Health
cent developments in POC testing include: wireless integra-
Pro with CancerDetect, to detect biomarkers associated
transmission and expand the with oral and throat cancers. With a specificity of 95% and
tion for real-time results and insights to be delivered via an
reach of telemedicine. Modern sensitivity of 90%, the test uses RNA sequencing technology
app, portable diagnostic devices that can perform multiple
tests simultaneously from a single sample, and customi-
and AI to measure gene expression of the oral microbiome
POC devices can perform and cells of each patient’s saliva. Though these and similar
zation of biomarker panels for testing of specific diseases
multiple tests simultaneously, tests are still ordered and evaluated by physicians, they’re a
or conditions. In addition, POC devices for gene sequencing
and molecular diagnostics are on the horizon. For the adop-
allowing for the detection of first step—albeit an imperfect one—in equipping consumers
with convenient methods of early detection.
tion of a patient-centric model, POC diagnostics ensures
various diseases or conditions that medical decisions are as timely as they are accurate.
from a single sample.

XR IN AI and machine learning algorithms are automating the

analysis of medical images and aiding in the early detec-
XR technologies offer new ways for health care professionals to
visualize and interact with medical data, patient information,
DIAGNOSTICS tion and diagnosis of disease. Imidex received FDA clear-

ance for VisiRad XR, a machine learning platform that
and anatomical structures. Using head-mounted wearable tech-
nology, XR technologies can integrate real-time patient data
detects subtle, often overlooked, lung nodules on chest and diagnostic history into a clinician’s field of view during
X-rays. Nutex Health has integrated DRAid Chest XR into the medical examinations for more accurate diagnostics. Beyond
radiology workflow of its hospitals. A research team led by the exam room, XR facilitates remote collaboration and fosters
Michigan Medicine developed DeepGlioma, a AI-based diag- communication between patients and medical professionals.
WHAT IT IS nostic system that uses rapid imaging to screen for genetic Experts from different locations can virtually collaborate on
diagnosing complex cases, share insights, and arrive at accu-
mutations in brain tumors in under 90 seconds during sur-
XR is transforming medical gery. Stable Diffusion is an AI-algorithm able to read fMRI
rate diagnoses more quickly. Through immersive explanations
and visualizations of medical conditions, XR enhances patients’
brain scans to re-create realistic images based on what a
diagnostics by introducing ways to person has seen. The algorithm was recently retrained, en-
understanding of symptoms and overcomes language barriers.
Interactive 3D models can potentially support medical profes-
interact with medical data, patient hancing its accuracy. The technology, currently tested on a
sionals in explaining their diagnosis and treatment plans to pa-
limited data set, holds promise for further cognitive neuro-
information, and anatomical science research.
tients. Overall, patients will better understand their conditions
and treatment options and make more informed decisions.
structures. The technology Avatar Medical’s VR surgical planning solution, which gen-
In imaging interpretation, virtual reality and augmented reality
enables the visualization of erates patient avatars from CT scan and MRI images, has enhancements enable radiologists and imaging specialists to
disease progression, immersive received FDA clearance. GigXR released Dicom XR Library, a
platform that generates realistic 3D medical imagery from
immerse themselves in detailed 3D reconstructions of patient
scans. Medical students and practitioners can also train on XR
training simulations, and remote MRI and CT scans for training and learning purposes. Med- platforms to refine their diagnostic skills in a risk-free envi-
collaboration. While XR holds View XR received FDA clearance for its XR90 AR platform,
which renders 3D images with the use of CT scans during
ronment and practice patient interactions through simulated
office visits. Medical students can also study disease patholo-
great promise, issues of data minimally invasive procedures. MedView aims to improve gy through the visualization of disease progression. While the
privacy, accuracy, and regulatory surgical visualization and promote collaboration; it’s se-
cured $15 million in funding from notable industry players,
promise of XR in medical diagnostics is evident, it’s imperative
to address concerns of data privacy, accuracy, and regulatory
compliance should be considered. including the Mayo Clinic and GE Healthcare. compliance. As XR technologies advance, they will likely play an
increasingly prominent role in the medical diagnostics process.

MEDICAL Given the difficulty in deciphering real and synthetic data,

deepfakes compromise data integrity. A study in Finland
In a world where deepfakes proliferate, the very essence of
the patient-doctor relationship is at risk. Their presence
DEEPFAKES demonstrated that on average, more deepfakes were mis-

taken for real X-ray images than the opposite. A surge in
erodes the trust and reliability in the health care system.
Researchers conducting studies or clinical trials may use
deepfakes has prompted insurance companies, including deepfakes to manipulate research findings to skew results
Aetna and Cigna, to deploy machine learning algorithms to in support of a particular agenda or to secure funding.
evaluate insurance claims, and nearly 60% of insurers are Fraudsters may use medical deepfakes to forge insurance
using this fraud detection strategy to ensure fair and accu- claims or to exaggerate injuries and illness in a personal
WHAT IT IS rate coverage. Though the action is justifiable, it has led to injury lawsuit. Cybercriminals may use medical deepfakes
unintended consequences, like the mislabeling and subse- to gain unauthorized access to patient records and sensi-
Medical deepfakes involve the quent denial of legitimate claims. tive medical information. Sinister groups may defraud the
public during a health crisis or outbreak to generate fear
use of AI to manipulate medical Clinical-stage drug discovery company Insilico Medicine is and panic.
utilizing deepfakes to design molecules with disease-treat-
data or images and present a ing ability. Its AI platform, Pharma.AI, can discover novel ther- While there is a dark side to medical deepfakes, their accu-
double-edged sword: They’re apeutic targets, formulate new pharmaceutical drugs, and racy can also aid in the development of diagnostic tools and
predict the results of clinical trials. Alongside researchers drug treatments, accelerating the pace of scientific dis-
promising for the advancement and Nobel laureates, the company applied AlphaFold, Google coveries and innovations. When used to generate synthet-
of medical education and DeepMind’s protein structure database, to Pharma.AI, identi-
fying a novel treatment pathway for hepatocellular carcino-
ic data, they ensure patient privacy and compliance with
regulations. In training and education, medical students
research, but involve substantial ma in only 20 days. Korea University researchers proposed and practitioners can interpret and diagnose a wide range
risk when used maliciously. Amid the use of StyleGAN2 to create synthetic mammographic
images and an anomaly detection method to detect breast
of medical conditions via simulated cases.
AI’s rapid sophistication, health cancer on mammograms. Their generative AI model showed
The health care industry has only begun to invest in tech-
nologies and protocols to detect and prevent deepfake ma-
comparable fidelity to real images, while results indicated
care organizations have been that the anomaly detection was highly sensitive. The study
nipulation. A watermark created by DeepMind in partnership
with Google Cloud SynthID, the first of its kind, embeds an
slow to regulate. presents a promising approach for improved breast cancer
immutable mark directly into images created by Imagen.
detection.

EMERGING
TREATMENTS

NANOBOTS Researchers at the Indian Institute of Science and Ther-

anautilus have developed helical nanobots able to pene-
The industry is witnessing an unprecedented surge in the
integration of robots. At the forefront are nanobots, min-
trate dentinal tubules where antibiotic-resistant bacteria iscule robots that operate at nanoscale to perform highly
accumulate. Controlled by a magnetic field, the nanobots’ targeted activities in the body. They can deliver medication
heat generating capability was effective in killing bacteria. to a tumor without affecting healthy tissues or perform
Similarly, researchers from the University of Pennsylvania intricate surgeries in delicate, hard-to-reach areas. Nano-
have developed magnetically controlled nanorobots with bots minimize side effects, reduce immune response, and
catalytic properties to generate antimicrobial oxygen-con- accelerate recovery time, thereby reducing risks. Extending
WHAT IT IS taining molecules that eliminate fungi within 10 minutes. beyond surgery, they are applicable in telerobotics given the
ability to be remotely controlled across distances, enabling
Nanobots offer precise, At the Shenzhen Institute of Advanced Technology, self-pro-
pelling nanobots offer precise gastrointestinal inflamma-
prolonged observation of chronic conditions and real-time
delivery of drugs.
minimally invasive treatment for tory therapy; these TBY-robots penetrate the mucus barrier
and autonomously navigate to the inflamed site. MIT scien- Equipped with sensors and diagnostic tools, nanobots
targeting disease and improving tists developed magnetically controlled soft-bodied poly- detect biomarkers and abnormalities. Molecular nanobots
drug delivery. Concerns mer robots measuring millimeters long that can navigate can be designed to respond to biological signals, adapt-
confined spaces like blood vessels, enabling the delivery ing shape and function to conditions within the body. And
include material toxicity and of drugs. A dual-action approach involving the delivery of researchers are exploring self-propelling features for auton-
genetic modification, and yet lactate oxidase enzymes via tiny nanocapsules to promote
immune cell activity was developed by researchers at UCLA.
omous operation. This would increase the efficacy of cancer
treatment through drug delivery and targeted tumor ther-
the technology could enable Engineers at University of Colorado Boulder developed a apy, while the nanobots’ ability to navigate the blood-brain
precise and efficient procedures self-propelled robot that measures only 20 micrometers
wide and can travel at a speed of 3 millimeters per second,
barrier also opens avenues for treating neurological disor-
ders. But concerns exist around the possibility of unintend-
with reduced side effects and demonstrating potential for drug delivery. The researchers ed consequences resulting from genetic modification. While
hope to make these robots fully biodegradable so that they synthetic nanobots offer precise engineering, they could be
adverse reactions. would dissolve in the human body. toxic with long-term exposure. Ultimately, the choice wheth-
er to use the technology hinges on the medical task, safety
considerations, and personalization.

AR/VR A pilot study by Stanford Medicine researchers suggests

that VR therapy could help people with a hoarding disorder
Governments and industry professionals are under increas-
ing pressure to explore innovative and accessible solutions
THERAPEUTICS declutter in real life. The therapy allows patients to rehearse

relinquishing possessions in a simulation of their own
to address the growing mental health crisis, and XR tech-
nology is an incredibly viable way to do this. Through the
home, helping them practice skills learned in cognitive use of virtual rooms for therapeutic care, XRHealth revealed
behavioral therapy. Immersive VR appears to alleviate pain that VR therapy reduces stress and anxiety in patients by
and distress in cancer patients, according to a pooled data 34%. The study underscores the efficacy and accessibility of
analysis published in BMJ Supportive & Palliative Care. The VR therapy to provide engaging and effective mental health
WHAT IT IS study suggests that VR may help patients better cope with treatment options. XR technology also allows for remote
required medical treatments and the emotional impact treatment and monitoring, mitigating risks of unwanted
A versatile technology, extended of their conditions. Samsung’s advanced AI app operating side effects common to pharmaceuticals.
within diminished reality, Unfear, is interoperable with
reality is being increasingly used Samsung Galaxy earbuds to filter known trigger sounds to
With AR, rehabilitation techniques can be gamified, result-
in therapeutics for a wide range calm and assist patients with autism spectrum disorder,
ing in increased patient engagement and greater adherence
to treatment plans. The technology is utilized in exposure
of physical and mental health auditory PTSD, and hearing disorders. An Australian startup,
RecoveryVR, gamifies VR technology for neuro-rehabilita-
therapy for the treatment of anxiety disorders and phobias,
issues including rehabilitation, tion. AI Rehab is a UK-based startup that designs telehealth
by creating controlled immersive environments for gradual
confrontation of fears and anxieties. AR and VR are particu-
pain management, exposure solutions for patients recovering from hip and knee surger-
larly useful in preparation for medical procedures, distract-
ies. Its products combine AR and wearable remote sensors
therapy, and reducing stress to make it easier for patients to perform pre- and post-op-
ing patients exhibiting signs of distress before or during.
and anxiety. Augmented erative exercises. Built-in alerts for remote notification and
But widespread adoption still faces challenges, including
high hardware costs, limited bandwidth in remote areas,
patient-reported outcome measures ensures standardized
reality/virtual reality introduces feedback and measurable data.
and regulatory complexities. XR therapy solutions must
gamification to therapeutic meet rigorous regulatory standards to ensure patient safety
and data privacy, and navigating these regulations can be
techniques, increasing patient complex and time-consuming. Also, XR therapy’s coverage
engagement and motivation by insurance is not guaranteed, making it just as inaccessi-
ble as current mental health treatments.
through immersive experiences.

IN-WOMB Technology is making it increasingly feasible to treat fetuses while

they’re still in the womb, improving future health outcomes. In
In-womb treatments are designed to address specific med-
ical conditions or abnormalities in an unborn child. Fetal
TREATMENTS
Boston, a team of doctors successfully performed a novel fetal surgery may be performed to correct congenital anomalies,
surgery to treat a rare prenatal brain condition known as vein of including procedures to repair neural tube defects, con-
Galen malformation, where blood vessels in the fetus’ brain are
genital diaphragmatic hernias, or twin-to-twin transfusion
improperly connected. A groundbreaking clinical trial at UC Davis
syndrome in identical twins, among others. Beyond surgery,
Health delivered the world’s first stem cell treatment for spina bifi-
in-womb treatments can involve the administration of
da in-utero. Scientists at UC San Francisco are pioneering in-utero
medications directly into the amniotic fluid or through the
stem cell transplants for the treatment of genetic disorders. A $2
WHAT IT IS
million University of California, Davis project aims to cure Duchenne umbilical cord to address certain fetal conditions, such as
muscular dystrophy by editing genes using lipid nanoparticle injec- heart arrhythmias or anemia. But these treatments can be
In-womb treatments address tions in utero. The use of a fetoscopic approach for in-utero repair costly, raising questions about accessibility, health insur-
of gastroschisis is being tested in clinical trials at Texas Children’s ance coverage, and the financial burden on families. It also
fetal conditions pre-birth Hospital. And a student-led team at Johns Hopkins created a novel requires that expectant parents have access to compre-
through surgery or medication. port system able to pierce through tissue, aiming to reduce the risk
of membrane rupture during in utero surgery.
hensive, unbiased information about the potential risks,
benefits, and alternatives to in-womb treatments.
Early intervention, like repairing Advanced pharmaceutical and diagnostic technology is progressing At the same time, advances in genetic testing promise
defects and treating anomalies, toward use on pregnant patients and their fetuses. Trikafta, a drug earlier and more accurate prenatal diagnosis. Gene therapy
treatment for cystic fibrosis administered to a pregnant mother,
aim to improve outcomes for showed promise in reducing symptoms at birth. Treatments for the
research is exploring the possibility of in utero gene therapy
to correct genetic disorders and inherited conditions before
the deliverance of a healthy mother began at 24 weeks pregnant, and the baby was born without
the bowel complications that had previously affected her two sons.
birth, while noninvasive prenatal testing based on cell-free
baby. Ongoing research and The FDA has approved a blood test by Thermo Fisher Scientific that
fetal DNA is increasingly used to screen for chromosomal
abnormalities. Future advancements include developing
can identify pregnant women at imminent risk of severe preeclamp-
clinical trials seek to expand the sia, a leading cause of maternal mortality. The test measures the treatments for conditions like congenital heart defects,
neurological disorders, and genetic diseases. This ongoing
scope of conditions that can be ratio of two proteins produced by the placenta, with up to 96%
accuracy in predicting whether a woman will develop preeclampsia research into less invasive and safer procedures aims to
treated in utero. in the next two weeks. However the impact on outcomes remains reduce risks for both fetus and mother.
uncertain as an effective treatment for this condition has yet to be
developed.

COGNITIVE Researchers are beginning to report success in using XR

technology to improve brain function and well-being. A
Brain health goes beyond a balanced diet, regular exercise,
and adequate sleep: Cognitive functions such as memory,
AND NEURAL study investigating virtual cognitive behavioral therapy

for depression indicated that, on average, this approach
attention, problem-solving, and creativity require training
and intervention for increased neuroplasticity. Psycholog-
OPTIMIZATION through absorption training reduces stress in adults. The

NeuroGrow Brain Fitness Program, a 12-week brain training
ical well-being, stress reduction, and emotional resilience
play integral roles in overall cognitive health as well. Recent
program, has shown statistically significant improvements advancements have prioritized neurofeedback, empha-
in cognitive tests and notable decreases in sleep decline sizing the practice of self-regulation. Some AR apps offer
WHAT IT IS and emotional symptoms in patients with ADHD and mem- mindfulness and relaxation exercises that guide users
ory loss. A study published in Scientific Reports identified a through breathing exercises, meditation, and stress-reduc-
There is a growing focus on positive correlation between a stronger sense of presence in tion techniques, while others facilitate cognitive learning
VR environments and enhanced cognitive abilities, demon- and skills-based training. Alternatively, nootropics have
optimizing brain performance strating the application of VR technology in brain training. expanded beyond supplements and “smart drugs” as they
by enhancing cognitive Virtuleap, a VR brain training platform, entered clinical are adapted into consumable food and beverages. While
trials for its immersive experience featuring a telehealth this market is expected to grow at a compound annual
function and mental well-being. tool for continuous patient monitoring. And the University growth rate of 15.47% over the next 10 years, it is important
Nootropic foods and extended of Texas at Austin has modified a Meta VR headset, by in-
stalling a noninvasive EEG device to measure brain activity
to note there is limited scientific evidence to support their
cognitive-enhancing properties. Though the science has not
reality–based training exercises during VR simulations. narrowed down a best approach, there is growing demand
for treatment that optimizes brain performance, or at least
aim to stimulate brain function There’s also an increased interest in the growing nootropics extends the longevity of it.
to boost neuroplasticity. While market, valued at $2.5 billion in 2022. Nootropics are cog-
nitive enhancers that aim to improve memory, focus, and
available research supporting creativity. According to a survey conducted by Mintel, 42% of
US consumers have expressed interest in food and drinks
proof of concept is limited, to improve their focus and 72% of respondents showed
increasing demand has fueled interest in nootropics, by stating they either currently drink,
have tried, or are willing to try beverages with cognitive-en-
scientific interest. hancing benefits.

MICROBIOMES AND MIT engineers have developed a technology to probe the

connections between the brain and the gut using fibers em-
The human body is not just an individual organism but a
complex ecosystem, where trillions of microorganisms co-
HOLOBIONTS bedded with sensors and light sources. It allows for precise
measurement of neuronal signals within milliseconds, pro-
exist and interact with the host’s cells. The composition of
the microbiome is unique to each individual and influenced
viding insight into the gut-brain communication network. by factors like diet, exercise, mental health, antibiotics, and
A group of researchers also successfully tested a smart pill, environmental conditions. These concepts have stimulated
the size of a blueberry, in pigs for the diagnosis and treat- research into how our environment, as it is related to these
ment of bowel disease. The pill detects and reports key bio- microorganisms, affects our bodies. As we gain a deeper
WHAT IT IS logical molecules associated with inflammation, converting understanding of the intricate connections of the holobiont,
the data to a wireless signal transmitted in real time to a microbiome data will become a vital component of holistic
Our bodies are hosts to trillions user’s smartphone. Developed by Seres Therapeutics, SER- wellness and medical assessments, enabling the develop-
109, the first oral drug designed to treat the microbiome ment of personalized health care plans tailored to individu-
of microbiota—communities has received FDA approval. Clinical trials showed promising al microbial compositions.
of microorganisms that inhabit results, with 88% of participants avoiding another C. diffi-
Recently research has focused on exploring the impact of
cile infection eight weeks after a single dosage. And Ayble
specific parts of our bodies, and Health launched an app that harnesses behavioral therapy
gut microbiota on the interactions of gut-brain axis, as it is
directly involved in the body’s stress response. The aim is to
as a whole, a microbiome. The techniques to treat chronic gastrointestinal conditions.
The 15-week program retrains the connections between the
develop treatments that target gut microbiota to influence
holobiont concept defines the mind and gut to ease GI symptoms. brain function. Ideally the outcome will yield targeted inter-
ventions for metabolic disorders, autoimmune disease, and
interconnectedness of a host chronic stress and anxiety disorder, by harnessing synthetic
organism and its associated biology to engineer microbes as “living drugs.” Several start-
ups have leveraged AI to analyze and translate microbiome
microbiota, highlighting that as data for personalized health recommendations and in-
sights; others are developing microbiome-based therapies
one ecological unit they function targeting immuno-oncology, gastrointestinal diseases, and
together so changes to one neurological conditions.
affect the other.

BRAIN-COMPUTER Varying in function and ability, BCIs are being used to

restore speech and mobility. Electrodes implanted in the
The once speculative domain of science fiction writers
is now a tangible reality as computers increasingly con-
INTERFACES AND brain or worn outside the body can translate neural signals
into commands for the prosthesis, allowing for natural and
tribute to the enhancement of both mental and physical
capabilities. The emergence of BCI technology is actively
NEUROPROSTHETICS intuitive limb movement. One example is the groundbreak-

ing bionic arm controlled by thought given to an amputee
shaping the potential of the human race. By redefining
human computer interaction, BCIs open up new avenues
who lost both arms. Doctors at the Rehabilitation Institute for restoring sensory function and mobility to the physical-
of Chicago connected existing nerve endings from the ly impaired. Recent advancements have concentrated on
WHAT IT IS shoulder to chest muscles via a nerve-muscle graft, en- neuroprosthetics; BCIs allow patients with damaged neural
abling electrodes to receive through generated impulses. At pathways to control prosthetics or assistive devices using
Brain computer interfaces (BCIs) UCSF, a neurosurgeon used a brain implant to capture the their thoughts, restoring independence. However, sustained
neural signals controlling facial expressions and speech. effectiveness and safety of implanted devices will require
establish a direct communication When combined with AI, this created a digital avatar that addressing the long-term impact, including tissue damage
pathway between the human mimicked facial expression, allowing a participant who suf- and sign degradation, on the nervous system. Many such
brain and computers, enabling fered from a stroke 18 years ago to communicate in almost
real time.
devices are still in their trial phases, which has led to com-
plex questions about long-term maintenance, upkeep, and
body control without the use of support.
Future advancements, like the BCI implant developed by
the peripheral nervous system Neuralink, aim to enhance cognitive ability by creating a Increased investment and research highlights the applica-
or muscles. For example, direct connection with AI to reshape the human experience. bility of BCIs beyond the physically and cognitively impaired.
neuroprosthetics restore motor Founded by Elon Musk, Neuralink is seeking volunteers

for a six-year clinical trial. Its N1 chip is able to interfere
BCIs could amplify human capabilities and redefine the
boundaries of human potential. Think Iron Man’s ability to
function by simply harnessing with more than 1,000 brain cells and communicate via an seamlessly interact with his environment and enhance his
one’s thoughts. Future advances end-user app that translates these brain signals into com- ability by manipulating AI and XR technologies. Advance-
puter actions. In the meantime, noninvasive BCIs are being ments are seeking to improve the human experience by
seek to nurture human-machine adopted into consumer technology. NextMind’s EEG elec- redefining mind control. However, the thought of achieving
symbiosis and redefine cognitive trode, acquired by Snap for its AR glasses, was designed to human-machine symbiosis is triggering fundamental fear
decode neural activity to control smart devices. about what is human and our ability to maintain privacy.
boundaries.

PRECISION The first CRISPR-based treatment for sickle cell disease

and beta-thalassemia has received approval in the UK, and
The goal is more targeted health care by enabling doctors to
predict how a patient will react to a drug and prescribe an
MEDICINE the US FDA may approve it soon. The Casgevy therapy, also
known as “exa-cel,” was developed by Vertex Pharmaceuti-
individualized treatment. Precision medicine accounts for
individual variations in a patient’s genes, while considering
cals and Crispr Therapeutics. For patients with sickle cell the person’s environment and lifestyle. It also lends to the
disease and beta thalassemia, both inherited blood disor- exploration of disease biology, crucial for gaining insights
ders, the therapy prevents pain episodes and eliminates the into the causes of diseases and identifying potential targets
need for regular blood transfusions respectively. The treat- for therapeutic interventions. In this context, precision med-
WHAT IT IS ment involves editing a gene using CRISPR and infusing the icine holds promise for expanding the scope of diagnostics
modified cells back into patients. However, the cost, likely and introducing innovative gene therapy treatments.
Precision medicine replaces to be $2 million per patient, and the treatment’s complexity
Gene editing is part of a broader revolution targeting the
pose challenges for accessibility. A task force led by Nobel
the traditional one-size-fits-all Prize winner Jennifer Doudna proposes a mixed organiza-
root causes of diseases, enabled by advancements in AI
for increased efficiency, specificity, and data analysis.
approach by tailoring treatment tional model to lower the cost of innovative cell and gene
Researchers can modify genes associated with diseases
therapies, with a goal of making them more accessible.
and prevention to an individual’s to better understand their function. They can then develop
Researchers have shared preliminary results from a study drugs that specifically target these genetic mutations, po-
environment, lifestyle, and that used CRISPR base editing on the PCSK9 gene in liver tentially extending the lives of individuals affected by rare
genetic makeup. Through cells necessary for the production of low-density lipoprotein
cholesterol. This study is evidence that editing a single DNA
disease. But widespread adoption of precision medicine fac-
es challenges related to the accessibility and affordability of
precise and targeted genome letter in the liver can have a clinical effect. Given these and whole genome testing, despite growing support from public
editing, doctors can develop similar advancements, scientists are also exploring CRIS-
PR-based therapeutic approaches for complex diseases,
health care systems. Efforts are underway to reduce costs
through collaborations, new manufacturing models, and the
treatments that are either highly like Alzheimer’s, that are not considered genetic. Scientists development of “over-the-counter” or “off-the-shelf” thera-
at Duke University are testing an approach that aims to pies. However, the rapid progress and refinement of CRISPR
specific to each patient or to a reduce the activity of the APOE4 gene, which is associated gene-editing technology may expand its application to a
disease, increasing efficacy and with an increased risk of Alzheimer’s. wider variety of diseases and lower the associated costs.
minimizing side effects.

DESIGNING AND While the idea of genetically modified babies remains

widely debated, scientists continue to explore revolutionary
A race to immortality? From genetic interventions to rejuve-
nation therapies, the wealthy elite is rewriting the narrative
EXTENDING LIFE methods of reproduction. EctoLife, the first artificial womb

facility, is seeking to optimize genetic material, while ad-
of aging, turning it into a conquest rather than an inevita-
bility. These tech moguls envision a future where age is just
dressing infertility and population decline. Biotech startup a number, and death becomes an obsolete concept. The
Conception is introducing a different approach; it’s working convergence of Silicon Valley and life sciences has given
to commercialize in vitro gametogenesis (IVG), the creation rise to ambitious ventures seeking to unlock the secrets
of human eggs from stem cells. The experimental technique of longevity. As they pour resources into extending human
WHAT IT IS could benefit women who have lost eggs due to cancer lifespan, ethical concerns emerge, adding complexity to our
treatment, those unable to produce healthy eggs, and wom- understanding of death and the right to die, while intensi-
Breakthroughs in synthetic en with aging eggs. fying the demand for health care and exacerbating social
inequalities.
biology have ignited interest in Entrepreneurs, including Jeff Bezos (Altos Labs), Brian Arm-
strong (New Limit), Peter Thiel, Larry Page, and Sam Altman, By harnessing CRISPR technologies to selectively modify
designing and prolonging human have invested millions in the exploration of extending hu- the DNA of embryos, babies can be customized for desir-
life. Ethical considerations man lifespans, and possibly achieving immortality. One ap- able traits. The practice has been particularly controversial,
proach, “rejuvenate” blood, was inspired by studies at Duke raising ethical concerns like the potential for unintended
involving the altering of University that extended the lives of old mice via blood consequences, long-term health effects, the loss of cell
parenthood, mortality, and transfusions from young mice. Though the study does not
provide an antiaging treatment for humans, it hints that
identity, and the exasperation of genetic disparities. Ad-
vocates champion the opportunity to eradicate hereditary
the intentional manipulation the blood of young mice contains compounds that promote diseases and unlock unprecedented human potential, while
of human design are greatly longevity. Biotech company Rejuvenate Bio claims to have
successfully used a reprogramming technique to extend
critics emphasize the ethical complexities and potential
societal consequences associated with manipulating the
influencing advancements. the lifespan of mice. Adding three reprogramming genes to fundamental building blocks of life. In this ethically charged
77-year-old equivalent mice increased their lifespan by 7%. arena, scientists instead look to overcome infertility chal-
The technique involves resetting cells to a younger state, lenges by providing a source of gametes independent of
which has been the focus of significant research and in- natural reproductive processes, offering new possibilities
vestment as a potential anti-aging intervention. for fertility treatments.

PHAGES Phages are viruses that specifically target and infect bac-
teria, offering a highly -targeted and precise therapeutic
Drug-resistant infections are one of the most serious
threats to global health, but bacteriophages offer a prom-
approach. An MIT student discovered that a protein on the ising avenue in combating antibiotic-resistant bacteria.
phage’s surface, capsid protein, sometimes activates a Researchers and health care professionals are exploring
defense system known as CapRel during infection. This phage therapy as an alternative or complementary treat-
restricts the phage’s ability to bypass the bacteria’s defense ment. Phage therapy allows providers to practice precision
mechanism, offering insights that further the understanding medicine through customized treatments based on a pa-
of how phages work. While they offer a highly personalized tient’s specific bacterial infection. Unlike broad-spectrum
WHAT IT IS approach to combating drug-resistant bacteria, additional antibiotics, phages can be tailored to target specific strains
research is needed to understand how phages react to differ- of bacteria while minimizing impact to the body’s beneficial
Natural predators of bacteria, ent individuals and bacteria. The Geneva University Hospitals microbiota. Though phage therapy is not a new concept, its
and the University of Geneva successfully treated a patient resurgence in mainstream health care reflects the urgent
phages regulate bacterial suffering from an antibiotic-resistant chronic bacterial lung need for innovative solutions to combat antibiotic resis-
populations in the human body. infection with phage therapy. The treatment was a last resort tance. Ongoing research aims to refine protocols and ex-
when the patient was unresponsive to continuous intrave- pand its application within the entire health care industry.
With engineering, they also have nous antibiotic therapy.
enhanced ability to detect and Researchers at ETH Zurich have developed a rapid test that
attack bacteria. Though extensive detects a urinary tract infection using bacteriophages. The
scientists identified the phages effective against the bacte-
research of phages is fairly recent, ria most common to UTIs and modified them to emit a light
they show immense promise for signal when the bacteria is detected within the sample in
less than four hours. This method holds promise for immedi-
addressing bacterial maturation ate antibiotic prescriptions tailored to a patient based on the
and present a promising strategy strength of light signals. With $2.3 million in seed funding,
Parallel Health has introduced a custom phage therapy skin
to address antibiotic resistance, a solution. The serum features phages customized to users for
significant global health concern. treating chronic skin conditions—but requires facial swab
every six months to account for changing skin microbiomes.

EXPANDING Researchers at Flinders University attempted to generate

disinformation about vaping and vaccines using generative
AI-generated content may seem like viral fun, but its role
in perpetuating the infodemic has been rather damaging.
MEDICAL MIS- AND AI. Within an hour, they were able to produce over 100 mis-
leading and deceptive blogs, images, and videos promoting
In the era of the internet and social media, misinformation
and disinformation tend to spread more rapidly, facilitated
DISINFORMATION health disinformation, highlighting the urgent need for

government and industry guardrails to protect public health
by the ease of access to a wide audience. Left unchecked,
false narratives about diseases, treatments, and preventive
from the malicious use of generative AI tools. Social media measures can lead to fear and confusion. At the individu-
sites have implemented policies to combat mis- and dis- al level, misinformation can lead to misguided decisions
WHAT IT IS information on their platforms through warning labels on about treatment, vaccination hesitancy, and reliance on un-
false content, reducing the reach of such content, or remov- proven remedies, exacerbating health issues. At the societal
Misinformation and disinformation ing it entirely. Despite enacting these policies, social media level, public health efforts are compromised as misinforma-
platforms have notably downsized content monitoring staff, tion fuels resistance to evidence-based practices, result-
entail the spread of false information risking their effectiveness. On TikTok Shop, merchants are ing in delayed or inadequate care. Misinformation-driven
and the deliberate intent to deceive, defrauding consumers, publishing videos featuring deepfake health trends can also divert attention and resources away
respectively. Both fuel confusion doctors to deceive buyers into believing that health products from genuine public health concerns, hindering effective
are being promoted by medical professionals. These videos allocation of resources. As demand increases for certain
and lead to poor health choices and have garnered more than 10 million views, illustrating the medications or interventions, shortages may arise and
trust erosion, which is especially deceptive power of disinformation and the extreme difficul- lead to escalating costs. Collaboration between health care
ty in deciphering between real and synthetic content. Amid professionals, policymakers, and technology platforms
dangerous during pandemics by security and privacy concerns, TikTok issued new community is crucial to curb the spread of false information online.
hindering vaccine efforts. Social guidelines for the regulation of manipulated content. In the Tackling misinformation requires a multifaceted approach
UK, YouTube has begun to validate health care professionals that includes strategic communication strategies, media
media and AI-driven communication creating content on its platform. Applicants must meet strict literacy initiatives, and responsible content moderation on
accelerate the potential for an criteria and confirm that they have an active medical license; digital platforms. For instance, social media platforms can
infodemic, excess of information, when they’re approved, their profile features a badge that ver- make their algorithms more transparent, so users under-
ifies to users that the content comes from a reliable source. stand how content is promoted, to decide what information
amplifying the dissemination of to take seriously.
inaccurate information.

SCENARIOS
SCENARIO YEAR 2045
A New Kind of High

Nanobots, initially designed for revolutionary medical applications such as targeting disease at the cellular level and repairing tissue damage, have found a new,
unconventional use. Beyond their medical prowess, these tiny robots have entered a more controversial territory: cognitive and emotional manipulation.
This new application involves nanobots interfacing with a user’s neurological system to manipulate emotional states and cognitive abilities. Once introduced into
the body, these nanobots navigate to specific brain regions responsible for emotional regulation and cognitive processing. They can release neurotransmitters or
alter neural pathways to induce a range of desired states, from heightened happiness and confidence to suppressed anxiety or sadness. The allure is potent: the
ability to control one’s emotional and mental state with precision, bypassing traditional therapeutic methods.
While initially seen as an effective measure to improve population mental health, users became increasingly dependent on nanobots for emotional and cognitive
regulation, losing touch with their natural capacity to experience and process emotions authentically. This overreliance also raised significant concerns about the
long-term impact on brain function and mental health. The distinction between artificial and genuine emotional experiences becomes increasingly blurred, lead-
ing to societal debates and ethical concerns about the nature of human experience in the age of advanced technology.
These developments inevitably lead to complex ethical and legal challenges. Regulatory bodies were hard-pressed to address issues surrounding consent, mental
health implications, and the definition of personal identity in an era where emotional and cognitive states can be externally controlled. The widespread use of na-
nobots for nonmedical purposes challenged the understanding of human agency and authenticity, igniting a global discourse on the boundaries of technological
intervention in human life and the fundamental aspects of what it means to be human.

IMPLANTS,
PROSTHETICS,
& WEARABLES

EMERGING Implants are no longer just synthetic; increasingly, they’re

designed from biological material to meld seamlessly with
Biotech’s influence on the health care industry has given
rise to the volume and diversity of data outputs in the hu-
IMPLANTS the human body. At Northwestern University, researchers

developed a biocompatible water-soluble implant designed
man body. Compared to wearable technology, implantable
devices offer more precise data due to their reach within
to relieve pain without drugs and naturally absorb into the the body. However, as scientists are forced to consider the
body after use. The device delivers targeted cooling—numb- body’s innate immune response, it has become critical to
ing nerves to block pain signals to the brain—and users can evaluate the materials used and how they are disposed of
remotely activate the device and adjust its intensity. As 3D afterward. This is especially important as built-in sensors
WHAT IT IS printing has evolved, it has revolutionized biofabrication are increasingly incorporated for real-time monitoring and
and tissue regeneration. Researchers in Sweden developed data transmission. One viable solution is potentially xeno-
Scientists seek a more custom a 3D-printed eye implant for cell-based therapy to treat transplantation. Through this technology, we may be able to
diabetes. The device, only 240 micrometers long, was placed overcome compatibility issues, as ongoing experimentation
approach to implants. The between the iris and the cornea: This location in the anterior hopes to neutralize immune response to nonhuman organs.
focus is on bioabsorbable of the eye is considered to be immune-privileged, allowing If successful, xenotransplantation could greatly expand the
for the implantation of pancreatic cells without triggering pool of available organs. However opinions on acceptance
and biocompatible material, an inflammatory response. In the pursuit of biocompatible vary, as it raises concerns about animal welfare and disease
including nonhuman sources, material, xenotransplantation—implanting animal cells transmission. The use of neurostimulation for enhanced
into a human—introduces a new dimension. Doctors at the function and monitoring is also generating extreme inter-
to eliminate issues of body University of Maryland completed the second successful est. The industry is seeking ways to harness or control brain
xenotransplantation of a modified pig heart in a patient function for improved health, like the treatment of pain
rejection. New in-body 3D printing with end-stage heart disease, who lived for six weeks after without the use of opioids. Its continued focus on durability
techniques promise new levels of surgery. Engineers from Duke and Harvard have created a and extended lifespan could address the ongoing issue of
unique biocompatible ink that can transform into various “abandon-ware,” implants that go unserviced after the fall
personalization. Manufacturing 3D structures inside the body by absorbing ultrasound of a neurotech company.
limitations, durability, and extended waves. This innovation allows the ink to reach tissues,
bones, and organs that were traditionally only accessible
lifespan need to be overcome for through surgical procedures.
successful development.

EMERGING Stanford University scientists developed an electronic skin

(e-skin) that converts signals from pressure and heat sen-
Advancements aim to make prosthetics feel and look
more natural, helping people feel more comfortable in their
PROSTHETICS sors into brain signals. The e-skin mimics biological skin by
detecting pressure or warmth, sending sequences of elec-
“own” skin. Synthetic or electronic skin not only looks like
real skin, but advanced sensing capabilities enable feel-
trical signals to the brain. In trials the e-skin prompted a rat ing through electronic stimulation. Biotech companies
to kick its leg in response to pressure or heat, showcasing are harnessing neurostimulation for increased movement
potential applications in improving prosthetics. BeBop and sensory feedback. The departure from hyper-realistic
Sensors has also unveiled RoboSkin, a flexible and thin tac- bionic limbs aims to empower users by fostering a sense of
WHAT IT IS tile-sensing covering for humanoid robots and prosthetics identity and breaking down societal stigmas surrounding
to enhance their sense of touch. disability. Scientists are also exploring the design and sur-
Innovations in prosthetic design The OPRA Implant System is the only FDA-approved
gical attachment of prosthetics, with a focus on enabling
function that mimics the human body. Newly designed
aim to improve sensing capabilities bone-anchored prostheses in the US. NYU Langone Health prosthetics and surgical techniques, like osseointegration,
conducted the first surgery using osseointegration, which
with synthetic skins and novel involves permanently implanting a titanium device into the
aim to achieve better integration with the human body.
But accessibility remains a hurdle as prosthetics are often
surgical procedures. More broadly bone for direct attachment to an artificial limb. A practical costly and options are limited, especially for people of color.
substitute for conventional socket prostheses, benefits
applicable, electronic tattoos are include enhanced mobility, increased comfort, and mini-
Efforts to combine affordability, functionality, and individ-
ualized design are underway, recognizing the diverse needs
nearly invisible sensors attached mized pressure. The implant system results in improved and preferences of users.
surface perception, reduced residual limb pain, heightened
to a user’s skin, enabling wireless stability, and greater utilization of prosthetic limbs. With the rise in use and function of wearable technolo-
transmission of health information. At UT Austin, scientists developed a lightweight, wireless

gy, scientists are harnessing the understanding of skin
function to develop advanced sensing technologies that
Such advancements hope to electronic tattoo for continuous heart monitoring outside can be discreetly and comfortably worn on the skin. Such
clinical settings. Attached to the chest, the e-tattoo involves sensors promise more accurate data and measurements of
preserve our natural appearance, two sensors measuring electrical signals from the heart biomarkers; e-tattoos can potentially replace the need for
and acoustic signals for a comprehensive report of cardiac
avoiding an android-like health by measuring cardiac time intervals.
multiple devices for continuous monitoring, while ensuring
comfort and durability.
resemblance.

EMERGING The AR smart glasses market is becoming more compet-

itive. An Apple patent filing signals the development of
The proliferation of wearables, driven by their ability to
provide unparalleled access to personalized health insights,
WEARABLES smart glasses for daily use, featuring a digital crown for
controls, heads-up display for notifications and music
has led to a growing demand for inconspicuous devices
that can either substitute for or be concealed within our
control, and AR capabilities. Meta, which already introduced clothing. Progress on smart glasses and AR-enabled devices
smart glasses through a partnership with Ray-Ban, plans suggests a future where technology seamlessly enriches our
to release its first pair of smart glasses with AR display in lives without imposing on our personal style or daily rou-
2027, accompanied by a neural interface smartwatch for tines. These wearables offer a subtler and more user-friendly
WHAT IT IS control. While health monitoring capabilities in these AR experience that encourages users to wear them consistent-
glasses remain uncertain, ongoing research, such as Cor- ly, facilitating the collection of long-term health data. While
The next frontier of wearable nell University’s sonar glasses, hints at potential features. the primary focus of these devices is on enhancing user in-
These glasses, outfitted with micro sonar that can track the teractions, the uncertainty surrounding health applications
technology not only transcends wearer’s upper body movements in 3D through a combina- is getting research attention. These devices indicate a move
the boundaries of convenience tion of inaudible soundwaves and AI, could offer advanced toward a hands-free, augmented reality interaction with
tracking of physical and behavioral data. the world, opening up new possibilities in preventive health
but ushers in a new era, care by providing individuals with unprecedented access to
Parallel advancements in concealed wearable technology
where our daily experiences concentrate on miniaturized devices. Humane, founded by
personalized health insights and continuous monitoring.
The technology aims to positively impact consumer behav-
are interconnected with the ex-Apple employees, revealed the Ai Pin, aiming to simplify
interactions by eliminating traditional interfaces. Although
ior by inspiring better habits and heightened awareness
as they embrace these devices. Still, concerns about data
advanced capabilities of these its initial release features limited health functions, such privacy persist, and so do worries around data security and
devices. Ultimately, this will as scanning for nutritional information, the Ai Pin shows
promise for future applications in detection and continu-
the potential misuse of personal information.
shape the way we navigate and ous health monitoring. MIT researchers have developed a
wearable ultrasound scanner designed to attach to a bra,
understand the world around us. aiding in the early detection of breast cancer. And Stanford
has a smart bandage that leverages wireless circuitry and
electrical stimulation to monitor and accelerate wound
healing, minimizing infection risks.

MATURE Apple’s and Samsung’s patent filings suggest a shift in

health marker measurement through smart rings. While
Wearables have significantly evolved beyond basic activ-
ity trackers and health metrics, incorporating advanced
WEARABLES ongoing research targets improved capabilities, a notewor-

thy development is the OmniRing, a smart sensing ring by
features for comprehensive health monitoring. The trajec-
tory suggests innovations to measure an extensive array of
a Penn State team, leveraging XR. The device uses inertial health markers, as these devices now integrate sensors to
measurement unit sensors to capture finger motion and measure vital signs, detect anomalies, track brain activity,
photoplethysmography sensors to measure biomarkers. It and provide real-time health insights that factor in life-
was introduced with an open-source design to spur diverse styles and environments. Simultaneously, wearables are
WHAT IT IS applications. Simultaneously, companies like Baracoda aim evolving beyond passive data collection to actively inspiring
to enhance wrist wearables. Its smartband, BHeart, with its healthy habits and decisions. This active engagement with
As wearables become more “endless” battery, utilizes BMotion energy harvesting from
motion, body heat, and sunlight, redefining self-recharging.
users can have profound implications for enabling person-
alized and proactive health care, motivating individuals to
sophisticated, they offer Beyond traditional health metrics, Neurable’s brain-sensing
prioritize their well-being. However, as wearables mature
unparalleled access to headphones and BitBrain’s Ikon neuro-headband measure
brain activity. Neurable tracks brain signals to respond to
and enhance functionality, there is a potential paradox
personalized health insights cognitive states, while Ikon, with smart textiles and EEG
emerging. The same advancements that make wearables
indispensable could also render them superfluous. Wear-
and environmental interactions, electrodes, measures brain activity during daily tasks.
ables may become so seamlessly integrated into our lives,
becoming indispensable tools As our wearables gain capabilities, there are instances offering continuous health insights and habit reinforce-
where “invisible monitoring” is preferable. Toronto-based ment, that the need for a distinct wearable device diminish-
for maintaining well-being. Xandar Kardian is deploying its radar technology in 50 US es. Striking a balance between enhancing functionality and
However, ongoing progress health care facilities, providing contactless vital sign detec- maintaining the relevance of wearables will be critical. As
tion. The XK300 sensor gauges macro (body motion), micro wearables continue to mature, the challenge lies in ensur-
is rendering wearables (respiratory rate), and nano (heart rate) vibrations, offering ing that they not only collect a wider variety of health data
unnecessary, as innovations aim early indicators of potential medical events. Singapore’s but also meaningfully contribute to individuals’ well-being
Alexandra Hospital uses a Smart Ward ecosystem, stream-
to seamlessly measure individual lining nursing with virtual management. Internet of Medical
while avoiding redundancy.
health data without the need for Things components include smart beds, patches for vital
sign monitoring, AI food scanners, and smart glasses for
external devices. tele-rounding and teleconferencing.

RESEARCH

SYNTHETIC HEALTH Already, companies are harnessing AI and machine learning

to advance research. LabGenius’ system automates the de-
Synthetic health data replicates the characteristics, pat-
terns, and statistical properties of real health care data
DATA sign, creation, and testing of antibodies, revolutionizing the

antibody discovery process. Its machine learning algorithm
without the risk of compromising patient privacy. When
“real data” is insufficient, synthetic data is invaluable for
designs antibodies to target specific diseases, and auto- ensuring that research data is comprehensive. AI holds
mated robotic systems build and grow them in the lab. The the potential to drastically reduce the time required for
data is fed back into the algorithm, creating a closed-loop research and clinical trials, providing industries dependent
system. DeepMind has released a catalog of genetic muta- on these processes with remarkable flexibility for product
WHAT IT IS tions that can affect the function of human proteins. Devel- innovation. Using synthetic data, medical researchers are
oped using AlphaMissense, an AI that classifies missense harnessing AI and machine learning for critical tasks. Faster
Synthetic health data is variants, the model categorized 89% of all 71 million possi- drug development is facilitated by synthesizing data on
ble missense variants as either likely pathogenic or likely drug performance, screening drug compounds, predicting
artificially generated health benign. This can accelerate research providing insights into potential side effects, and optimizing dosages. This can
data that mimics real data the consequences of genetic mutations. lead to overhead cost reductions, making treatments more
affordable and accessible. Early and precise diagnosis is
properties without privacy risks. Generative AI also plays a pivotal role in creating synthet- facilitated by simulating disease progression, anticipating
ic data sets that closely resemble real-world data without
Coupled with machine learning, compromising privacy. Snowflake’s marketplace now offers
risk factors, and predicting treatment resistance. In disease
eradication efforts, synthetic health data supports con-
the application of synthetic access to synthetic data sets, including synthetic human
face and financial data. This enables businesses to train AI
tainment and eradication strategies by modeling disease
spread to identify preventative measures while protecting
health data accelerates algorithms and conduct tests and simulations while main- patient privacy. Through the analysis of large datasets,
research and clinical trials taining data confidentiality. Gretel has entered an exclusive
agreement with AWS, providing access to synthetic data
synthetic health data becomes a valuable tool for advancing
therapy research, optimizing treatments, and accelerating
for the development of novel generation models and privacy tools. The program aims to the development of novel therapies for disease.
enable teams to safely test, train, and fine-tune proprietary
medications, treatments and large language models using high-quality synthetic data
therapies. designed to be private.

NEW TRIAL Last May, the FDA released landmark guidance to encour-
age the use of remote clinical trials, which leverage digital
Recent innovations in clinical trials aim to reduce time-to-mar-
ket, while improving or maintaining quality and minimizing
METHODS tools to collect participant data remotely. The Decentralized drawbacks. Covid led to the emergence of app-based, remote
Clinical Trials draft guidance advises on how to incorporate trials, which showed promise in expediting them without
remote clinical trials safely and strategically for greater compromising quality. Other clear benefits include increased
accessibility: Remote trials enable broader participation across
diversity in clinical trial populations, and shows a clear
a wider demographic diversity. The digital aspect of remote clin-
shift toward the use of technology for conducting clinical
ical trials also allowed for streamlined data collection. The next
trials. And companies have seen success transitioning
generation of such advancements will be VR trials, which will
WHAT IT IS from hybrid intervention to remote clinical trials. In making offer researchers increased control over the trial environment.
the switch, GROWell’s strategy yielded a study completion
Traditional trials suffer from rate of 82%, as well as improved screen failure rates and But in-silico clinical trials—leveraging AI and VR—go even fur-
ther, eliminating human involvement in clinical trials altogeth-
increased task adherence. In-silico trials, on the other hand,
lengthy timelines—averaging aim to remove human involvement in clinical trials alto- er. They use synthetic data and simulations to produce compa-
rable results to the human trials, and could potentially cut trial
10 years—and significant costs gether through digital simulations, or digital twins. Nova-
durations in half. Regulators like the FDA are exploring ways to
discovery, specializing in AI-driven in-silico clinical trial
related to the recruitment and simulation, has successfully predicted the findings of the
incorporate in-silico trial data into the drug approval process.
Additionally regulatory frameworks are being developed to en-
retention of participants. Now, MARIPOSA Phase III clinical study through its jinkō plat-
form. The predictive findings closely align with actual trial
sure the reliability and validity of in-silico trial results.
remote, virtual reality, and in- results, highlighting the potential of in-silico approaches Remote, VR, and in-silico clinical trials are disrupting the tra-
for optimizing the development of innovative treatments. ditional practices of the health care industry, which have been
silico trials are viable options. Accenture Ventures has invested in Virtonomy, a compa- rigid and slow to change. Their streamlined processes will make
The goal of faster development ny specializing in data-driven simulations using digital trials more efficient and cost-effective, and drastically reduce
the time it takes to bring new medical innovations to market.
twin technology for accelerated development of life-saving
of novel drugs and therapies medical devices. Virtonomy’s solution enables manufactur-
Accelerated trials and shorter cash flow timelines will transform
the investment landscape, potentially allowing new entrants to
could be achieved through ers to create model patient virtual environments for device
compete without the conventional need for substantial capital.
testing, reducing costs and regulatory complexity.
improved efficiency, accuracy, The decreased risk associated with trials may encourage com-
panies to embark on ambitious and high-risk projects, leading
and speed of clinical trials. to a new wave of innovations.

LAB-ON-A-CHIP Increasingly, one microchip can do it all. SiPhox Health’s kit

can test for 17 biomarkers, including inflammation, cardio-
Also known as a microfluidic chip or micro total analysis
system, LoC is an automated miniaturized laboratory sys-
vascular health, metabolic fitness, and hormone balance. tem that enables multiple medical tests to be performed
Sold on a subscription basis, kits are $95 with a monthly at once. Traditional laboratory analyses often involve large
membership that includes access to continuous glucose quantities of reagents and samples, contributing to high
monitors and personalized biohacking tools. The company costs. By requiring smaller sample sizes for accurate anal-
is also developing an at-home device. ysis, LoCs significantly reduce sample size volumes, risks
of contamination, and associated costs. Given their com-
WHAT IT IS
At the University of Bath, researchers have developed a pro- pact and portable nature, LoCs allow for rapid and real-time
totype virus diagnosis device. Called LoCKAmp, it uses LoC analysis due to short fusion distances within the micro-
Lab-on-a-chip (LoC) devices technology and can provide lab-quality results within three
minutes. It employs reverse transcription loop-mediated
channels. This enables point-of-care testing, making this
technology invaluable in patient diagnostics and biophar-
are revolutionizing POC isothermal amplification to multiply specific RNA sequenc- maceutical development. It’s especially useful for develop-
es for virus detection. Originally developed to detect Covid,
diagnostics by integrating LoCKAmp can be easily adapted to detect other pathogens.
ing countries, where high incidences of disease persist due
to limited resources and proper facilities. Increased focus
sample preparation, testing, and And a new signal processing method for biosensors from on patient-centric care means that we can expect to see an
University of California, Santa Cruz and Brigham Young
analysis on a single microchip. University researchers allows for simultaneous detection of
increase in consumer LoCs to supplement remote care. In
research, LoC devices facilitate high-throughput screening
LoCs are transforming how particles in both high and low concentrations. The tech-
nique could lead to the design of LoCbiosensors that can
and experimentation. Researchers can conduct multiple
analyses simultaneously, significantly accelerating the
laboratory analyses are detect multiple analytes across vast concentration ranges pace of discovery in fields like genomics, proteomics, and
performed, offering portability simultaneously. The researchers used an optofluidic bio-
sensor chip with fluorescence detection and a new signal
drug development. This will contribute to advancements in
understanding disease mechanisms and the development
and convenience, efficiency, processing method to accurately identify the concentration of targeted therapies.
of different colored nanobeads in a mixture. The technology
and versatility. is being commercialized by Fluxus, a California-based med-
ical device company.

BODY-ON-A-CHIP The use of “on-a-chip” models aim to mimic the physio-

logical conditions of organs to provide a controlled envi-
BoC systems, often referred to as microphysiological
systems, replicate the complex interactions of organs
ronment for studying various phenomena. Researchers at and tissues within a human body on a miniature scale. By
the University of Birmingham have developed a “vein-on- simulating the interactions between different organs, BoC
a-chip” model designed to emulate human veins, offering devices demonstrate how drugs will behave in the human
a unique platform for studying blood clot formation. This body. BoCs offer faster, cost-effective, customizable, more
innovative device incorporates operational valves that ethical and safer alternatives to human or animal trials for
simulate real vein mechanisms, coupled with a single layer biological research and development, and could transform
WHAT IT IS of endothelial cells covering the vessel’s interior. Similarly, the drug development process that heavily relies on animal
a global team of bioengineers and immune-oncologists subjects. The application of BoCs will improve the efficiency
Body-on-a-chip (BoC) collaborated to create an immune-infiltrated kidney tissue of drug screening, reduce the number of failed clinical trials,
model, specifically focusing on investigating the on-target, and decrease time-to-market. While BoCs hold immense
technologies typically consist off-tumor effects of T-cell bispecific antibodies (TCBs). This promise for advancing drug development, challenges for
of microfluidic channels model—known as an immune-infiltrated human kidney or- adoption include standardizing protocols and regulatory
ganoid-on-chip—enables the assessment of TCB impacts on frameworks that adapt to accept these models.
and chambers that contain kidney cells. Additionally, researchers at Boston University
manufactured biomaterials, devised an organ-on-a-chip model replicating lymphatic

vessels capable of targeting the ROCK2 protein to reverse
allowing researchers to simulate lymphedema in mice. And biotech company Emulate in-
troduced a novel feature to its liver-on-a-chip model—an
the behavior of various tissues adeno-associated virus (AAV) transduction application. This
and organs. By mimicking the groundbreaking technology enables gene therapy research-
ers to efficiently and safely test the delivery of AAV vectors
function and mechanics of an in a validated, human-relevant liver model, providing re-
organ, they provide a potential sults within weeks rather than months. In a previous study,
Emulate’s liver chip accurately identified 87% of tested
alternative to animals for drug drugs known to induce liver injury in patients.
development and toxin testing.

3D BIOPRINTING A team at Monash University has successfully printed

neural living networks composed of rat brain cells that
3D bioprinting is revolutionizing traditional approaches to
tissue engineering and regenerative medicine. By precisely
mature and communicate like a real brain, while University depositing cells in a spatially controlled manner, bioprint-
of Oxford researchers fabricated a two-layered brain tissue ers can fabricate functional tissues and organs unique to
from 3D printing human neural stem cells. Through the use individual patients.
of a novel droplet printing technique, the tissue maintained This has huge implications for organ transplants. According
its cellular architecture for weeks in the culture. This marks to the US Health Resources and Services Administration,
a significant advancement in the fabrication of materials 106,800 people are on the national organ transplant waiting
WHAT IT IS with the structure and function of natural brain tissue. list, while Centers for Disease Control and Prevention data
shows only 6,000 organs on average are provided by living
A rapidly evolving technology, At the University of Sydney, researchers developed a blue-
print for advanced human lung models with the use of 3D
donors each year.
3D bioprinting involves the structures grown from human primary cells: They built The customization of 3D bioprinting is relevant to re-
two different lung models, healthy and diseased, to study constructive surgery and preoperative planning: Medical
creation of functional structures the therapeutic effectiveness of drugs. Scientists at the providers can create patient-specific implants to match
that imitate the complexity of Terasaki Institute for Biomedical Innovation have made exact dimensions and specifications. Additionally, the
ability to incorporate multiple cell types and biomaterials in
advancements in 3D bioprinting of native-like skeletal
biological tissues and organs muscle tissues. They used a specialized bioink with mi- the printing process allows for the creation of tissues with
enhanced functionality. In research, 3D-bioprinted tissues
by layering living cells and croparticles engineered for sustained insulin-like growth
factor-1 delivery, promoting mature skeletal muscle tissue
offer more accurate representations of human physiology
bioinks. While 3D bioprinting formation and structural alignment for more effective
than traditional 2D cell cultures. With these models, re-
searchers can assess drug response and toxicity with great-
holds tremendous promise, it regeneration. And a multidisciplinary team at Stanford
University received a $26.3 million federal contract to bio-
er precision, while reducing, or even eliminating, the use of
animals for testing. The biggest challenge of 3D bioprinting
has technical challenges to print a fully functioning human heart and implant it into an is sustaining larger, more complex tissues. For implanted
immunodeficient pig within five years. This approach uses
overcome, such as ensuring patient-specific stem cells that will not require immuno-
tissues or a larger size to survive, the tissues must be vas-
cularized to ensure proper nutrient supply and waste remov-
viability and functionality. suppression when transplanted into the same patient. al. Researchers are exploring bioink formulations, printing
techniques, and post-printing strategies to overcome these
challenges for clinical validity.

QUANTUM’S EFFECT Intel announced the release of Tunnel Falls, a 12-qubit sili-
con chip, only available to the quantum research commu-
Long considered in the realm of science fiction, quantum
computing is more realistic than ever. In a world character-
ON RESEARCH nity. This and other actions—like a recent collaboration with

the Laboratory for Physical Sciences—demonstrate Intel’s
ized by rapid technological advancements, the incorpora-
tion of quantum computing offers significant implications
commitment to advancing quantum computing research for drug discovery, genetic analysis, and optimization solu-
and accelerates its potential application in health care. IBM tions. Harnessing quantum computing could lead to rapid
unveiled the first health care–focused quantum computer identification of novel drugs and therapies, recognition of
in the US, installed at Cleveland Clinic. The IBM Quantum genetic markers associated with disease, and customized
WHAT IT IS System One, part of a 10-year Discovery Accelerator part- treatment plans based on genetic makeup. From optimizing
nership, utilizes quantum computing, AI, and high-perfor- treatment plans to managing health care supply chains,
The processing power of quantum mance computing to accelerate biomedical discoveries. quantum algorithms can quickly pinpoint optimal solu-
Gero, a biotech startup focused on aging and longevity, tions. This efficiency can enhance the overall effectiveness
computers rivals traditional used a hybrid quantum-classical machine learning mod- of health care systems, ensuring better allocation of re-
computers. Quantum computers el to interface between classical quantum computational sources and improved patient care. For instance, its rate of
devices. Its aim was to demonstrate the application of computing holds potential in enabling widespread genome
process complex data and quantum computing to generate novel chemical structures sequencing for tailored treatments based on a patient’s
construct computationally in drug discovery. Insilico Medicine combined the functions genetic profile. While quantum computing in health care
of quantum computing and generative AI to explore the holds great promise, it is still in the early stages of develop-
intensive models at unimaginable quantum advantage in small molecule drug discovery. The ment, as several technical challenges need to be addressed.
scale and speed. With its ability researchers substituted each part of MoIGAN, an implicit These challenges include improving the stability and error
generative adversarial network for small molecular graphs, correction of quantum computers, as well as developing
to analyze vast amounts of data with a variational quantum circuit. Insilico plans to inte- algorithms tailored to health care applications.
and explore numerous possibilities grate the hybrid quantum GAN model into Chemistry 42, its
proprietary small molecule generation engine, to accelerate
simultaneously, quantum and improve its AI-driven drug discovery and development
computing is ushering a new era of process.
computational capability.

AUTHORS &
CONTRIBUTORS

INDUSTRY HEALTHCARE & MEDICINE
CHRISTINA VON MESSLING Co-author

Senior Manager STEPHANIE VALENTINO
Life Sciences practice area at Future Today Institute. She is re- Chief Executive Officer
nowned for her expertise in strategic foresight and an unparalleled AMY WEBB
ability to navigate complex industry landscapes. With a career span-
Managing Director
ning over two decades, she has guided multinational corporations
MELANIE SUBIN
through transformative strategies, leveraging his deep understanding of market dynamics and future
trends.
Creative Director
EMILY CAUFIELD
Christina’s diverse experience across sectors enables her to craft visionary scenarios and strategies,
driving sustainable growth and innovation for clients worldwide. Having split her time between Europe,
Editor
the UK, Brazil, and the US, she combines a global perspective with in-depth, holistic expertise of the
ERICA PETERSON
main drivers of change: technology, geopolitical, economic, and societal developments. She has
advised leading pharmaceutical and healthcare companies, as well as beauty, entertainment, media, Copy Editor
and retail brands. SARAH JOHNSON
holds a Masters in Law from the Freie Universität Berlin, where she graduated within the top 10% of the
CHERYL COONEY
nation. She works from offices in New York City, Berlin, and London.

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FINANCIAL SERVICES & INSURANCE

INDUSTRY FINANCIAL SERVICES & INSURANCE
TABLE OF CONTENTS
688 Top Headlines 704 Open Banking 720 Asset Tokenization
689 State of Play 705 Scenario: What if open 721 Scenario: What if DeFi
690 Key Events banking evolves into a DeFi Reinvented Protection
hub model? for High-Value Assets?
706 Seamless Interactions 722 Authors
Developments
707 Frictionless Payments 725 Selected Sources
692 Why Financial Services &
Insurance Trends Matter 708 Instant Payments
709 Better Digital Wallets
710 Transactions From Anywhere
711 Scenario: What If Invisible
To Consider
Finance Enables Undetectable
695 Central Themes Fraud?
697 Ones To Watch 712 Governance
698 Building Blocks 713 Rising Cyber Risk
699 Digital Identity 714 Global Crypto Regulation
700 Data Minimization 715 Alternative Credit Scoring
701 AI-Powered CX 716 Scenario: What if AI Redefined
Financial Compliance?
702 AI-Assisted Data Modeling
for Insurers 717 DeFi Models
703 Scaling Cryptocurrencies 718 Routes to Web3
719 Programmable Money

TOP HEADLINES 01 Banks Battle to Keep Digital Pace Amid Tech Evolution
Financial institutions are finding it increasingly difficult to keep pace with the
rapid evolution of technology despite ongoing efforts in digital transformation.
Financial services
are evolving towards 02 2023 Bank Failures Eclipse 2008, Signaling Shift to Megabanks
a future defined by The fall of Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank, and First Republic Bank marked a more
significant disruption than the 2008 crisis, creating uncertainty for regional banks.
instant, seamless
interactions and robust 03 Financial Firms Must Revamp KYC in Digital Identity Push
As digital identity technologies advance, financial institutions must overhaul “Know
security. Your Customer” (KYC) policies to make banking interactions and transactions more
fluid and secure.
04 Instant Payments Get Closer to Reality with FedNow’s Launch

With the introduction of FedNow in 2023, the financial industry is one step closer
to instantaneous payments and real-time financial processing.
05 Banking Infrastructure Enters Its Blockchain Era

Orchestration, routing, and data security are poised to become the most exciting
battlegrounds in finance, driven by leading banks’ innovative use of blockchain.

STATE Financial services institutions and insurance providers are facing a pivotal
juncture. Innovation has brought advances like instant payments, digital
OF PLAY
wallets, and open banking, yet it has also revealed the fragile infrastructure
underpinning legacy systems. Though financial groups tout significant
technology spending, brick-and-mortar branches are being rapidly closed
leaving customers with fragmented services and a need for more consis-
tent access. While many services still require in-person visits, call centers
scale back as digital traffic surges, and systems suffer frequent outages.
Financial services are at a Legacy financial organizations that are still struggling to modernize face an
crossroads: balancing tech unpleasant reality. The digital transformation endeavors undertaken in the
late 2010s are falling behind a wave of emerging capabilities: innovations
investment and innovation for like artificial intelligence and decentralized identity are already scaling,
the long term with a positive putting pressure on existing initiatives. Difficult decisions loom—whether
experience today. to forge ahead with current modernization efforts, redirect budgets to trail-
blazing opportunities, or straddle both at the risk of diluted focus.
The imperative is clear: organizations must redesign technology stacks for

a digital-first world, embrace agile innovation, and focus beyond quarterly
results to make the long-term investments required to compete in the un-
folding revolution.

KEY EVENTS
M A R C H 1 0, 2 0 2 3 JUNE 5, 2023 N OV E M B E R 2 , 2 0 2 3
Silicon Valley Bank Collapse Insurers Pull Out of California Sam Bankman-Fried Conviction
A bank run led to the government’s State Farm becomes the second major A jury found Sam Bankman-Fried,
seizure of SVB, the third largest insurer to pull out of California after Allstate FTX founder, guilty of seven fraud
bank failure in US history. announced its move in November 2022. and conspiracy charges.
A P R I L 2 0, 2 0 2 3 J U LY 2 0, 2 0 2 3
Markets in Crypto Act Approval FedNow Launch

The European Parliament passed MiCA, The new Federal Reserve digital
which imposes requirements on crypto payments system will allow
platforms, issuers, and traders. faster and cheaper cash flow.


ACTION IS THE VERB FOR 2024 Inflation (Should) Remain Steady US Election Outcomes US Stablecoin Regulation
Financial institutions and insurance Current views suggest inflation will remain In addition to the presidential election, The Clarity for Payment Stablecoins Act of
providers have spent years experi- steady this year after cooling in late 2023. several senate seats are up for grabs in 2023 was passed by the House Financial
menting, pondering, and investigat- While Fed rate cuts will help maintain sta- 2024 that could determine key outcomes Services Committee in 2023 in July, leaving
ing new and influential technologies. bility, rising housing and rental costs at the in banking regulation over the next several many hopeful that the official legislation
beginning of 2024 have put upward pressure years, particularly in Ohio, Montana, and will pass sometime in 2024. The bill would
To a great extent, the volatile market on inflation, making it a space to watch. California. regulate stablecoins like other financial
of the last several years created the institutions.
optimal environment for thinking
rather than doing. But 2024 will be AI Standards Development CBDC Launches Technology Investment
different: New AI standards, scaled
Top tech firms are participating in a joint Several countries, including India, Brazil, and A recent survey showed that 92% of banks
CBDCs, and forthcoming stablecoin effort led by the US Department of Commerce Singapore, have planned to launch CBDCs plan to increase technology spending in 2024.
regulations mark this year as a year to create standards around the safe use of in 2024. While the scale and maturity of the This investment will likely focus on data and
of action. If financial institutions and AI. While not purely FI-focused, the outcomes efforts vary, 2024 should serve as a proving AI, leading to strategic hires in specific areas
will likely inform how banks and insurance ground for whether CBDCs work in the wild. of expertise. Hopefully, these investments will
insurance providers leverage this
companies use the tech. be practical and not experimental.
opportunity to make real progress on
their technological investment, 2024
could be an inflection point for the 11 MACRO SOURCES OF DISRUPTION
industry.

WHY FINANCIAL SERVICES & INSURANCE TRENDS MATTER TO YOUR ORGANIZATION
Expanding Streamlining Optimizing Boosting Ensuring Virtualizing

Distribution Onboarding Settlements Productivity Compliance Operations
Open banking frameworks Emergent standards Blockchain-based Sophisticated As personal data Digitization of customer-
and embedded insurance around digital identity settlement layers and automation through AI protection regulations facing processes (like
offerings enable financial verification, e-signatures, real-time payment rails and machine learning emerge across online banking apps)
institutions and insurers and digital wallets can reduce transaction allows financial and jurisdictions, institutions continues behind the
to deliver customized allow remote, paperless times from days to insurance providers to require new capabilities scenes by virtualizing
products through third- onboarding of new clients. seconds while lowering optimize everything from around managing infrastructure.
party platforms and apps. Auto-validated customer reconciliation expenses. underwriting approvals consent, data inventories, Transitioning from legacy
Integrating services with data cuts administrative Legacy back-office to claims adjustment. access controls, and systems reduces brick-
digital ecosystems can costs related to systems rely on complex This digitization of surveillance systems. and-mortar footprints,
substantially expand application reviews and intermediary clearing manual review processes While temporarily paper processing, manual
consumer reach and background checks. These processes that amplify enhances accuracy and increasing costs, data labor, and associated
acquisition without elements of streamlined operational costs. Direct efficiency, reducing governance is table multi-million dollar
traditional sales and onboarding enhance settlement improves cash headcount and improving stakes for institutional expenses.
marketing costs. profitability through lower flows. the effectiveness of trust and mitigates
acquisition costs and human capital. existential regulatory or
faster account funding. cyber risk.

Persistent and escalating cybersecurity hazards like hacking, malware, and Exploring emerging identification technologies from outside banking could
phishing scams present substantial data and asset security challenges for unlock avenues to create seamless customer identity verification in-person,
financial firms housing sensitive customer information. online, and on the phone—enhancing user experience across all interaction
channels.
Emerging data privacy regulations in major jurisdictions require increased
financial sector transparency and customer control, necessitating Banks have opportunities to build on consumer demand for financial app
investments in continuous compliance efforts. features by integrating digital offerings like personalized recommendations
based on data analysis—capitalizing on desires for more value-added digital
Disruptive financial technology startups promoting innovations such as wallet capabilities.
digital payments, automated advisory, and blockchain are forcing banks and
investment firms to adapt rapidly.
Pursuing practical AI applications that increase productivity and efficiency
would allow financial institutions to adopt this technology strategically rather
Fluctuating macroeconomic conditions, including interest rates, inflation,
than just following the latest trend.
credit cycles, and potential recessions, significantly sway bank loan books
and investment portfolios, posing economic stability risks.
Employing behavioral insights and predictive modeling, including third-
Highly sophisticated fraud threats around identity theft, payment fraud, and party data, to shape preemptive customer offerings aligned with needs could
more that cost the industry billions annually require ongoing detection and augment the precision of such analytics.
prevention efforts across financial institutions.
Future-focused infrastructure investment strategies enabling banks to
support cutting-edge innovation can position them to stay ahead of evolving
market expectations.

1 2 3 4 5 6
Continue to invest in cyber- Evaluate, in detail, all digi- Design and implement Allocate additional budget, Provide substantial funding Contemplate new prod-
security controls, AI-en- tal transformation efforts, customer identity man- human capital, and re- to build more flexible, agile uct and service offerings
abled systems for detecting programs, and initiatives agement transformation sources towards augment- core technological systems that leverage emerging
fraud, upgraded data against an updated com- programs consisting of ing predictive risk modeling that simultaneously support technologies to create
encryption, and refined prehensive ten-year tech- omnichannel capabilities analytics capabilities via integration with legacy and more value for customers,
access governance to com- nology roadmap to ensure across digital and in-per- alternative and synthetic future cutting-edge inno- or meet their needs for
ply with emerging privacy the modernization updates son platforms. These will data. This will facilitate vations, facilitating quicker evolving risks. By integrat-
regulations and combat across business functions enable enhancements to preemptive adjustments responses to rapidly shifting cutting-edge solutions
the increasingly sophisti- are keeping pace with the identity verification pro- within investment portfolios ing customer needs, com- such as artificial intelli-
cated cybersecurity threats latest innovations in emerg- cesses that mitigate fraud and other financial assets petitor product offerings, gence and blockchain,
that manifest in the modern ing technologies across while expediting customer to mitigate vulnerability and internal digitization companies can enhance
digital landscape. industries. onboarding and authenti- more effectively. goals. operational efficiency
cation. and introduce innovative
risk management tools.

CENTRAL THEMES
Digital Fragmentation Neobank Infiltration Blockchain Rebound
Despite significant innovation funding, unfinished Neobanks have narrowed the gap with traditional After a period marked by speculative frenzy and sig-
transitions from aging, on-premises systems have left banks by targeting the digital shortcomings of estab- nificant fluctuations in Bitcoin’s value, the blockchain
customers facing intermittent access, frequent out- lished institutions. These entities, which capture nearly and digital asset sectors saw a notable rebound with
ages, and fragmented experiences. A focus on exper- half of new account market share, leverage modern increased institutional interest in October. Despite vol-
imental innovation efforts rather than scalable cus- infrastructures, benefit from lighter regulatory frame- atile headlines, the steady enhancement of foundation-
tomer-facing capabilities is often to blame for failed works, and disrupt key revenue streams in sectors like al technologies has progressed quietly. These advance-
modernization efforts. The source of this fragmenta- lending and payments. Younger cohorts make up most ments in global interoperability, execution reliability,
tion is decades of technical debt burdening financial of their growth: 75% of new accounts originate from Gen and ecosystem tooling are setting the stage for sus-
institutions—sprawling, complex IT estates that have Z or millennials, for whom the concept of a checking tained growth. A majority of the world’s central banks
become exceptionally challenging to overhaul. The account has become indistinguishable from payment are exploring central bank digital currencies (CBDCs)
consequences are emerging at an accelerating pace: tools. Neobanks distinguish themselves by offering and digital asset strategies, signaling a shift towards
customer frustrations, brand erosion, outages during services such as bill management and negotiation, mainstream acceptance. Innovations in multi-party
critical transactions, and tightening margins as costs subscription management, credit score monitoring, compute, zero-knowledge proofs, and confidential com-
escalate. As competitors increasingly offer integrated, and automated savings and investing, all of which are puting are refining the balance between transparency
omnichannel client service, outdated financial insti- now considered standard features to many consumers. and privacy. The emergence of an open, programma-
tutions run the risk of dissatisfied customers leaving This evolution reflects how neobanks are reshaping the ble, and borderless financial infrastructure suggests
for more advanced providers. The growing digital divide banking landscape, appealing to a tech-savvy, younger technology is no longer the main barrier to widespread
has expanded too far to ignore; near-term disruption demographic and challenging the dominance of tradi- adoption. However, significant policy challenges related
seems inevitable as decentralized technologies ready a tional banks. to digital identity, compliance, consumer protection,
more seamless and integrated alternative. and international coordination remain, keeping broad-
er application to speculative trading. Mainstream use
appears distant unless regulatory reforms align with
technological advances.

CENTRAL THEMES
Cybersecurity Frontlines Balancing Innovation and Policy Soaring Customer Expectations
As digital expansion accelerates, so does the prolifer- Emerging technologies are advancing rapidly, outstrip- Today’s digital transformation initiatives are failing to
ation of cyber threats. The shift from frequent, minor ping existing policy frameworks and oversight capabili- meet consumer expectations. Behind the scenes lie
attacks to selective, high-stakes breaches has seen ties. The domain of cryptocurrencies and digital assets, challenges such as integrating new databases, imple-
hackers exploiting vulnerabilities in legacy systems to with its complex custodial and transactional protocols, menting advanced cybersecurity measures, and retir-
monetize high-value data on the dark web. Enhanced can create particular challenges for regulatory catego- ing old technologies. These necessary steps can lead
security measures struggle against sophisticated ran- ries designed for conventional financial systems. Sim- to unfavorable customer interactions, such as systems
somware that demands payments to unlock customer ilarly, the trade-offs between explainability and perfor- that require re-identification and system outages and
access, subtly undermining trust despite significant mance in machine learning and artificial intelligence conversions. Today, almost all consumers expect fully
security investments. The relentless need for vigilance raise questions about accountability and fairness in personalized advice and consistent experiences across
against the exploit kits hackers can deploy poses chal- systems. The gap between the pace of innovation and both physical and digital touchpoints. Even one neg-
lenges for even the most robust security operations. the capacity for regulatory oversight is widening, with ative interaction can prompt a consumer to consider
Smaller entities face the tough choice of outsourcing central interventions potentially stifling the positive switching to a different institution. To retain loyalty,
security, potentially compromising control over vital impacts of new technologies. The key to navigating this brands must integrate physical and digital services
systems and impacting financial health. Regulatory evolving landscape lies in enhancing organizational and balance automated and human-centered interac-
demands for risk management are essential yet can transparency and consumer understanding, which are tions. Traditional brands may have an inherent trust
impede rapid responses to emerging threats. This as crucial for success as establishing universal stan- advantage, yet this often relies on customer inertia. As
constant, mostly invisible struggle for cybersecurity dards. Creating the appropriate approach will require consumer expectations escalate and more alternatives
underscores the critical battle for system integrity and enhancing technological knowledge for business and emerge, brands that cannot deliver experiences that
resilience, highlighting the complex dynamics in pro- policy leaders. fulfill their promises risk losing their competitive edge.
tecting digital landscapes.

ONES TO WATCH
Alex Chriss, President and CEO of PayPal, for the Jack Dorsey, founder of Twitter & Block, for Dr. Lisa D. Cook, Member of the Board of Gover- Rohit Chopra, Director of the US Consumer Fi-
company’s leadership in digital payments, pay- innovatively fusing social media with finance, nors of the Federal Reserve System, economist, nancial Protection Bureau, for his polarizing but
ment experiences, cryptocurrencies, and expand- significantly shaping digital communication and professor, for her groundbreaking work on impactful perspectives on banking regulation
ing global payment solutions. and transactions across platforms. economic policy and financial markets. and his work on open banking.
Bradley Leimer, Co-Founder of Unconventional Dr. Janet Yellen, United States Secretary of the Max Levchin, CEO of Affirm, for his ongoing Sallie Krawcheck, CEO and Co-Founder of El-
Ventures and Executive Director, Head of Fintech Treasury, for her work leading the Treasury’s poli- innovations, including developing anti-fraud levest, for developing a digital financial advisor
Partnerships and Open Innovation at SMBC, for cies and thought work around CBDCs, the future efforts, co-creating the Gausebeck-Levchin test, for women emphasizing ethical investment and
his take on innovative technologies in banking. of money, and the evolution of payments. and co-founding Affirm. economic empowerment.
Cathie Wood, Founder and CEO of ARK Invest, Jason Keck, Founder and CEO of Broker Buddha, Michael Barr, Vice Chair of Federal Reserve for Sam Altman, CEO of OpenAI, for potential de-
for her thematic investing advice and perspec- for transforming the insurance application and Supervision, for his work on regulatory propos- velopments the company could lead in using
tives on leading technological innovation and renewal process with agency management sys- als that would raise capital requirements and generative artificial intelligence in financial
shifts in finance, such as SEC approvals. tem (AMS) technology. strengthen oversight for major banks. services and insurance applications.
Dr. Dambisa Moyo; Member, House of Lords— Ken Moore, Chief Innovation Officer of Master- Nick Molnar and Anthony Eisen, Co-Founders Shefi Ben-Hutta, Founder of Coverager, for
sitting as Baroness Moyo of Knightsbridge; card, for his work leading the organization’s per- of Afterpay, for pioneering payment flexibility tracking and analyzing the near-term devel-
Investor, Board member, Author; for her thought spective on emerging technologies like artificial with their “buy now, pay later” service, reshap- opments and long-term factors shaping the
leadership on macroeconomics and global intelligence and blockchain. ing retail finance and invisible payments. insurance landscape.
affairs.
Kristo Käärmann, Co-Founder of Wise (formerly Ricardo Lara, California Insurance Commis- Thasunda Brown Duckett, CEO of TIAA, for her
Daniel Schreiber & Shai Wininger, Founders of TransferWise), for the company’s mission to cut sioner, for his navigation of the state’s evolving leadership in finance, career-long advocacy for
Lemonade, for their company’s disruption of the through cross-border payment barriers, making environment and insurers’ actions to decrease financial literacy and inclusion, and mission to
insurance industry using AI and data analytics, transactions cheaper and faster. offerings due to climate-related risk. expand retirement savings.
reimagining claims and customer service.
Laura Drabik, Chief Evangelist at Guidewire, for Rodney Williams, Co-Founder of SoLoFunds Vitalik Buterin, Co-Founder of Ethereum, for his
Hiromichi Mizuno, former Chief Investment Of- her thought leadership and work on the factors and Co-founder and Chief Commercial Offi- revolutionary work in finance with blockchain,
ficer of Japan’s Government Pension Investment shaping insurance’s future, including technolo- cer at LISNR, for the LISNR technology’s work which is driving the growth of Decentralized
Fund (GPIF) and UN special envoy, for his work in gy and climate change. in contactless authentication and seamless Finance and smart contract applications.
innovative finance and sustainable investments. transactions.

BUILDING
BLOCKS

DIGITAL IDENTITY To date, digital identity is verified through mechanisms like

multi-factor authentication, simple biometrics (such as a
At the heart of digital identity technology is the ability to
enhance security measures and mitigate the risk of fraud.
thumbprint), and digital or electronic signatures. However, Digital identity solutions offer robust verification process-
new technological capabilities drive this space toward more es, utilizing biometrics, encryption, and blockchain, among
seamless and invisible authentication. These capabilities other technologies, to ensure that only authorized users can
apply across many industries but are essential for bank- access sensitive financial information and execute transac-
ing and financial services, where almost every interaction tions. Digital identity technology also simplifies the process
requires authentication. of meeting regulatory requirements like Know Your Custom-
WHAT IT IS er (KYC) and Anti-Money Laundering (AML) by streamlining
CLEAR is preparing to roll out the CLEAR Lane of the Future the verification of customer identities and monitoring
Digital identity is the online in 2024, allowing CLEAR Plus Members to verify their identi-
ty with their face. Other venues are following suit: the Bank
transactions for suspicious activities.
presence or persona of an of America Stadium in Charlotte, NC, began using facial In addition to institutional benefits, customers expect
individual, organization, or recognition in December 2023 in partnership with Verizon.

Blockchain-based identities also provide an immutable
seamless, secure, and rapid interactions with their financial
service providers. Digital identity technologies could make
device, represented by uniquely record of one’s identity. Sovrin is a blockchain-based decen- interactions seamless, leading to entirely ID-free interac-
identifiable attributes and tralized identity network that enables verifiable, self-sover-
eign identities, allowing users to share only the information
tions. By simplifying the authentication process without
compromising security, financial institutions can enhance
used for digital interactions necessary for a transaction or interaction. customer satisfaction, foster loyalty, and attract new clients.
and transactions. While they As more organizations implement digital identity mea- Implementing digital identity solutions can also lead to sig-
used to be somewhat separate, sures, behavioral biometrics, which validate a person by nificant improvements in operational efficiency. Automated
analyzing things like typing speed or mousing patterns, will verification processes reduce the need for manual checks,
the meteoric rise of digital likely increase in popularity. While regulation may prevent thereby lowering operating costs and speeding up transac-
interactions has caused one’s US banks from implementing these measures, banks in tion times.
Australia have come together to institute the Scam Safe
“identity” and “digital identity” Accord, which requires biometric verification for account
Digital identity technology is more than just a tool for
enhancing security; it is a strategic asset that addresses a
to become inextricably linked. openings.
broad spectrum of challenges financial institutions face.

DATA MINIMIZATION Researchers are developing approaches that leverage tech-

nologies like fully homomorphic encryption (FHE) to help
Data minimization is crucial for financial institutions and
insurance companies, especially with both federal bodies
organizations meet data minimization standards. With like the FTC and individual states enacting stricter data
FHE, data is encrypted so that third parties can perform privacy regulations in 2023. These laws mandate limiting
analysis and operations on the encrypted data without data collection and usage, aiming for compliance, enhanced
ever having access to the unencrypted data. For example, a security, and customer trust.
company could confirm an individual’s identity through an
By adhering to data minimization, organizations can reduce
FHE-based database without seeing, accessing, or storing
the risk of data breaches, enhance privacy protections, and
WHAT IT IS personally identifiable information.
build trust with customers and users by demonstrating re-
Data minimization is a principle A similar approach, differential privacy, ensures that the
privacy of individuals in a dataset is protected when statis-
sponsible data management practices. Data minimization
practices, however, may stand in stark contrast to organiza-
in data protection and privacy tical analyses are performed. It works by adding a certain tions’ increasing use of AI: the concept of reducing or min-
that emphasizes collecting only amount of random noise to the data or the results of que-
ries on the data, making it challenging to infer information
imizing the amount of data an organization has, especially
in its raw form, stands at odds with the need to build up a
the data that is directly necessary about any individual within the dataset. The goal is to allow corpus of data to have a sufficiently reliable AI model.
and relevant for accomplishing a data analysts to extract useful aggregate information from
a dataset without compromising the privacy of any individ-
In customer data lakes, reducing the amount of data held
specified purpose. It advocates ual. Differential privacy can be beneficial when implement-
can benefit organizations; lowering data storage and pro-
cessing needs can lead to streamlined operations and cost
for limiting the amount of ing AI models to avoid having the model inadvertently learn
or reveal sensitive information about individuals from the
savings. Moreover, focusing on necessary data improves de-
personal data gathered, stored, training data.
cision-making quality. Due to less data handling, simplified
compliance helps navigate the complex regulatory land-
and used to the minimum required Companies are also addressing data minimization needs scape. Data minimization is strategic, balancing regulatory
to achieve the objectives for through consent management; however, this approach can adherence with operational efficiency, security enhance-
fail if consent is obtained by requiring consumers to agree ment, and trust-building.
which the data is processed. to a sharing policy they do not fully understand. Other rela-
tively analog solutions include stricter access controls and
regular data cleaning and deletion.

AI-POWERED CX The most common application of artificial intelligence to

enhance CX is through chatbots or other servicing agents.
The initial investment in AI technology can be substantial,
covering both the technology itself and the training and
WatsonX has developed advanced AI chatbots that use nat- restructuring needed to integrate AI into existing systems.
ural language processing (NLP) to respond to queries about Organizations may feel uncertain about the return on in-
anything from filing a claim to paying their bill. vestment, especially since there is no past experience with
these AI applications to guarantee improved customer expe-
While chatbots are an obvious choice for experimenta- riences.
tion, other more sophisticated applications are beginning
WHAT IT IS
to emerge. Roots Automation, for example, has rolled out Ironically, while AI aims to personalize customer experi-
InsurGPT, a finely-tuned large language model trained on in- ences, there’s a risk of depersonalization if implemented
Almost three-quarters of leaders surance data to parse documents, including submissions,

claims notices, and customer or agent correspondence.
incorrectly. Over-reliance on AI without human oversight can
lead to customer experiences that feel generic or lack the
have prioritized expanding AI human touch, potentially affecting customer satisfaction
In other cases, companies implement AI in back-office
across the customer experience. operations to expedite customer decision-making, creating
and loyalty.
While CX has been a strong speedier experiences. In one example, Nationwide Insurance As AI technologies such as chatbots and document process-
partnered with DigitalOwl, a tool that uses AI to quickly ing systems handle more tasks traditionally performed by
focus for financial services summarize vast stores of medical records, increasing the humans, there will be a decreasing need for a large custom-
companies and insurers over the speed of life insurance underwriting. er service staff, affecting employment within the industry.
past decade or more, artificial Some new banking upstarts offer AI-based features like AI applications that are purpose-built for insurance will
notifications and guardrails: cred.ai issues a credit card that enable streamlining, automating, processing, and analyzing
intelligence serves as rocket fuel limits your spending based on the amount of money you documents such as insurance claims and medical records.
for these companies to further have in your linked deposit account. As you spend, money is These applications will create operational efficiencies,
set aside in your deposit account to ensure you can pay it off. reduce manual labor, speed up decision-making processes,
personalize their interactions and and shorten the time required for services like insurance
experiences. underwriting.

AI-ASSISTED DATA A patent application filed by Travelers Insurance in May

2023 outlines a solution to help reduce cargo theft using AI
Insurers will have a more comprehensive view of potential
risk by leveraging unstructured data sources.
MODELING FOR imagery analysis. In this solution, AI analyzes images or sen-

sor data of cargo at various points in time. The system can
While companies will need regulatory changes to imple-
ment AI into pricing, future applications could enable more
INSURERS identify theft, damage, or other loss events by comparing
these data points. This approach allows for immediate de-
accurate and dynamic premium settings by analyzing a
more comprehensive range of variables, including new data
tection of discrepancies, significantly increasing the chanc-
types and patterns that traditional models may not capture.
es of quickly preventing theft or recovering stolen goods.
WHAT IT IS
Such premium calculations would more accurately reflect
Another patent from State Farm describes the integration the risk profile of policyholders, ensuring that pricing is
AI-assisted data modeling of LiDAR (Light Detection and Ranging) and AI to advance
spatial analysis, property management, and navigation. The
both competitive and reflective of actual risk.
is a game-changer for the patent encompasses creating and using 3D models to visu-
Similarly, although it would invite the same level of regu-
latory scrutiny, AI could significantly enhance the under-
insurance industry, driving alize home renovations, optimize object placement, design
landscapes, locate utility lines, and manage commercial
writing process by quickly analyzing complex data sets,
significant advancements in risk inventories. Additionally, it includes AI-based recommen-
including non-traditional data sources, to assess the risk
associated with insuring individuals or entities. Improved
assessment and fraud detection. dations for interior design, generating new floor plans, and
facilitating 3D navigation within buildings.
data sets enable more accurate underwriting decisions and
By leveraging AI to analyze vast the potential for developing customized insurance prod-
Solution providers are also developing products to help ucts. Today, companies could leverage “lite” versions of AI
quantities of data, insurance carriers improve their data analysis. Astera ReportMiner into underwriting processes by ensuring the final decision
companies can uncover nuanced automates the extraction of information from unstructured sits with the human underwriter.
documents, streamlining claims processing and improving
insights and drive more accurate underwriting decisions. It uses AI to efficiently identify and
AI models can also predict claims’ likelihood and potential
cost, enabling insurers to allocate resources more effi-
decision-making. extract critical data points from formats like PDFs, TXT files,
ciently and prepare for future liabilities. Automated claims
and spreadsheets.
processing powered by AI can also speed up the settlement
process, reducing the time and cost associated with claims
management. This application is more readily available
today due to the lesser regulatory hurdles.

SCALING Beginning in 2021, some insurers, including Metromile

and AXA, announced they’d accept crypto as payment, with
The ongoing scaling of cryptocurrency in financial institu-
tions and insurance companies offers organizations new
CRYPTOCURRENCIES Metromile claiming it is the first insurer to both accept pay-

ment and pay claims in crypto. But the list has not grown
market opportunities, including expansion into new client
segments and services. Some companies may begin offer-
significantly since then, and the crypto winter and subse- ing services like those discussed, such as crypto custody,
quent SEC crackdown highlighted the volatile regulatory or may develop new innovative financial products that are
environment surrounding cryptocurrencies. faster, more efficient, or more cost-effective than traditional
offerings.
WHAT IT IS
In June, Arch Insurance authorized the Lloyd’s of London
coverholder Evertas to write up to $420 million on crime-re- Financial institutions may also begin implementing cryp-
Financial services and insurance lated policies involving the theft of private keys and provide
insurance on crypto mining hardware of up to $200 million,
to-based offerings to streamline transactions or offer
new features such as programmable payments or instant
companies are integrating cryp- the highest in the industry. These new limits represent a cross-border transactions. Crypto also allows for more dy-
tocurrencies, leveraging their significant increase from the previous single policy limit of
$5 million from Evertas.
namic funding and payouts, like flexible treasury services.
scalability for efficient products Financial institutions in this space must be mindful of the
As of September, Deutsche Bank (in partnership with Tau- developing regulatory environment. While some guidance
as well as new financial products, rus) joins a growing list of global banks that provide crypto exists today, other crypto-based laws will be in play in 2024.
like crypto custody, digital asset custody services. And more banks may take on crypto Institutions must closely watch the evolving regulatory
custody if the regulatory environment eases. In early 2024, landscape to stay aware of shifting compliance standards
protection, and efficient transac- banking associations appealed to the SEC to reevaluate a or impacts on capital requirements, capital allocation, and
tions. While this offers opportuni- regulation that requires banks to list crypto assets in cus- risk concentration strategies.
tody as liabilities, which forces banks to allocate an equiv-
ties like access to new markets, it alent amount of assets. The group argues that altering this
poses challenges due to volatility, regulation would decrease the concentration of risk.
regulatory uncertainties, and se-

curity concerns.

OPEN BANKING In mid-2023, the passage of PSD3 brought renewed life to

the open banking discussion. Like its predecessor, PSD2,
Open banking allows third-party providers to access finan-
cial data via APIs, fostering innovation and competition. As
the directive creates rules about the security of electronic fintech startups introduce innovative products with this
or digital payments, creating uniformity across the EU—a technology, financial institutions and insurance companies
critical element for the success of open banking. must adapt their offerings to compete. This environment
encourages the development of tailored financial solutions
One new patent application from Mastercard introduces that meet individual customer needs.
a system that improves how payments are routed, focus-
WHAT IT IS
ing on increasing the chances that payments go through Some innovations may center on personalizing the customer
successfully. By examining details like the account holder’s experience. Access to comprehensive customer data enables
Open banking, the practice that information and the transaction amount, the system calcu-
lates a “likelihood of success” score for each payment. This
financial institutions and insurance companies to offer per-
sonalized services. They can provide more accurate financial
provides third-party developers system can handle accounts held across different banks, advice, better lending terms, and policies that closely match
access to financial data through calculating a success score for each account. It can also
split a payment across multiple accounts, assessing the
individual risk profiles. This data integration also simplifies
application processes, improving customer satisfaction.
application programming best distribution to ensure the payment goes through.
The sharing of customer data raises significant data secu-
interfaces (APIs), enables new Visa is addressing consent management, another critical rity and privacy issues. Institutions will need to invest in
apps and services while ensuring element of open banking. In one of their most recent pat- strong cybersecurity measures and comply with data protec-
ents, they introduced a system that automates user con- tion regulations to protect customer information. In addition
greater financial transparency. sent management for data sharing and actions taken on to security measures, open banking mandates adherence to
Over the past year, there has been their behalf, enhancing privacy and control. When a request complex regulations, requiring significant updates to sys-
for user data is made, the system prompts the user for con- tems and processes. Financial institutions must ensure APIs
a push toward standardization, sent and, upon agreement, records this consent in a secure, comply with data sharing and security standards, facing
particularly as the EU’s awaited immutable ledger. This process ensures that user data is challenges in integrating new technologies and managing
only shared with permission and that all transactions are third-party partnerships. This level of security will necessi-
Payment Services Directive 3 transparently logged for auditing. tate continuous investment in compliance and technology
(PSD3) has finally passed. to navigate the open banking landscape effectively.

SCENARIOS
SCENARIO YEAR 2035
What if open banking evolves into a DeFi hub model?

By 2035, the banking sector has embraced the decentralized financial hub model, marking the next evolution of open banking. This transformative
shift is underpinned by the widespread adoption of blockchain technology and cryptocurrencies, seamlessly integrating decentralized finance (DeFi)
platforms into traditional banking services. This model revolutionizes how customers interact with financial services and introduces new complex reg-
ulatory implications.
In this evolved open banking ecosystem, banks function as secure interfaces between customers and the vast array of services offered by DeFi plat-
forms. They facilitate lending, borrowing, and trading without central intermediaries, leveraging smart contracts to automate and secure transactions.
This democratization of financial services extends open banking principles beyond mere data sharing, enabling a fluid exchange of assets and finan-
cial services across a decentralized network.
Regulatory bodies have responded to this shift by developing a new framework that ensures these decentralized services’ security, transparency, and
fairness. Financial institutions and other custodians or organizations that have cryptocurrency on the books must comply with smart contract au-
diting. These new rules ensure contracts operate as intended and look for code bugs that could alter outcomes. Regulators have also implemented
interoperability standards to facilitate seamless interaction among blockchain networks and financial systems, ensuring that DeFi services can inte-
grate with the broader financial ecosystem without compromising security.
This model represents a significant shift in financial services architecture, where regulatory compliance, innovation, and customer empowerment are
intricately balanced. It heralds a future where financial services are more accessible, efficient, and secure, driven by the collaborative efforts of banks,
regulatory bodies, and the DeFi community.

SEAMLESS
INTERACTIONS

FRICTIONLESS Block, the parent company of Square, CashApp, Afterpay,

and other popular paytech companies, is attempting to
Financial institutions, payment providers, and insurance
companies can use the rich data from frictionless payment
PAYMENTS make payments more accessible with one of their new

patents, which describes a system that integrates payment
transactions to develop personalized financial products
and services. Banks can leverage analytics to understand
and content provider platforms to make accessing digital customer preferences and behaviors, offering tailored ad-
content easier and more secure for users. The system also vice, personalized loan and credit options, and customized
uses machine learning to personalize content recommen- savings plans.
dations and improves security by minimizing the need for
Insurance companies could leverage this technology to
WHAT IT IS users to enter sensitive information.
streamline the claims process, making it as frictionless
Frictionless payments streamline Israeli payment firm Nayax is creating a method for making
digital payments using a web browser instead of a perma-
as the payment systems themselves. Automated claims
processing could significantly reduce processing times,
transactions by minimizing nent digital wallet app. Users receive a URL via text message improve accuracy, and enhance customer satisfaction.
user effort, creating a seamless that, when clicked, installs a temporary digital wallet on their
mobile device to complete a transaction. This wallet commu-
Banks will face a growing demand from businesses for dig-
experience. This approach, which nicates with payment terminals using the device’s NFC tech-
ital payment solutions that can integrate seamlessly with
their retail operations. This demand includes the capability
includes invisible and embedded nology and is automatically deleted along with any payment
information after the transaction, enhancing security.
to process transactions smoothly and provide data insights,
payments, integrates or fraud prevention, and compliance with security standards.
Visa has introduced a method for embedding payment to-
automates the payment process kens directly into digital photos and other media metadata.
The shift towards frictionless payments may alter tradi-
tional revenue streams for banks, particularly in trans-
within user interactions, enhancing This setup links each image to the copyright owner’s ac-
action fees, as the competitive landscape could pressure
count, allowing for easy and secure purchasing of media by
convenience and efficiency across embedding all necessary information, like price and copy-
fees downwards. But there is also potential for new reve-
nue streams through value-added services. Banks need
various platforms and services. right details, within the photo. The embedded data elim-
to rethink their revenue models to adapt to the changing
inates the need for intermediaries and simplifies buying
dynamics.
and selling copyrighted images, ensuring copyright owners
are directly compensated for their work through a seamless
transaction process.

INSTANT PAYMENTS The Federal Reserve launched FedNow in July 2023, a re-
al-time payment service that enables instant bank-to-bank
Real-time reconciliation could improve risk management by
immediately detecting discrepancies and fraud. In tradi-
transactions. This service aims to support faster and more tional systems, the lag between transaction initiation and
efficient payments across the financial landscape, offering reconciliation can create windows of opportunity for fraud-
continuous availability for immediate settlement. sters. Instant reconciliation closes these gaps, enhanc-
ing the security of financial transactions and protecting
In competition with FedNow, Mastercard has expanded its against financial losses.
partnership with The Clearing House to further the adoption
WHAT IT IS
of instant payments. New aspects of the partnership aim Reducing overage fees through instant reconciliation may
to identify additional instant payment use cases for con- present a shift in revenue streams for banks, necessitating
Instant reconciliation enables sumers, businesses, and governments. The RTP® network,
which currently includes 487 banks and credit unions, faces
banks to re-evaluate their revenue models. Institutions may
need to explore alternative sources of income, such as offer-
card issuers and merchants to increased competition from the Federal Reserve’s FedNow. ing premium account services, investing in customer loyal-
swiftly balance accounts while Launched in 2021 with seven initial banks, SWIFT Go has
ty programs that encourage more extensive use of banking
services, or introducing innovative financial products.
cardholders enjoy the immediate rapidly expanded its reach, now encompassing over 600
banks across 120 countries. Impressively, 85% of transac- Leveraging instant reconciliation can differentiate a bank
reflection of transactions in tions processed through SWIFT Go are completed in less or insurance company in a crowded market: more than half
their bank accounts. Similarly, than three minutes. SWIFT Go enhances the speed of inter- of customers today say they’d switch insurers to access
national payment processing, enabling banks to provide instant digital claims payments. This strategic advantage
insurance policyholders are competitive alternatives to fintech solutions. can attract new customers looking for transparent, custom-
coming to expect rapid claim Currently, payments initiated on one rail must travel and
er-centric experiences.
payments, mirroring the settle across the same rail, creating walled gardens. For re- Instant reconciliation improves operational efficiency, lead-
al-time payments to expand, the industry will need interop- ing to faster settlement times and improved cash flow man-
accelerated pace of virtually every erability between rails. agement, and allows banks and financial service companies
other aspect of modern life. to allocate resources more effectively. In Property and Casu-
alty insurance companies, payment processing accounts for
over a quarter of operating costs, with paper checks costing
orders of magnitude more than a digital payment.

BETTER DIGITAL Several companies, including Visa and Capital One, are
working on developing solutions that improve the security
Digital wallets make transactions faster and easier, encour-
aging impulse buying and attracting a broader customer
WALLETS of digital wallet provisioning. These solutions often include

secure methods for adding or linking financial instruments
base comfortable with digital payments. A study revealed
that digital wallet users spend 31% more on average than
to third-party digital wallets via one-tap contactless card non-users across all purchase types. This significant in-
authentication and utilize cryptograms to verify user identi- crease in spending among digital wallet users, especially
ty and authenticate transactions. Millennials and Gen Z, highlights the growing influence of
digital wallets on consumer purchasing behavior, suggest-
WHAT IT IS
Visa is also developing a novel approach to addressing ing that these platforms facilitate transactions and encour-
the limitations of conventional payment systems, where a age higher expenditure.
Digital wallets are virtual payment token is bound to a single card. The company is
proposing the connection of a single token to multiple user Businesses benefit in other ways from digital wallets;
platforms that store payment accounts, which would enable the aggregation of credit compared to traditional payment methods like credit cards,
information and other identifying limits from multiple cards for a single transaction. Their
approach includes the generation of a virtual card which is
digital wallets often have lower processing fees, reducing
business costs. Digital wallets also provide businesses with
credentials, offering seamless, associated with multiple accounts. valuable data on customer purchasing habits, enabling
secure, and fast payment Finally, in early 2024, Visa launched Visa Commercial Pay, a
targeted marketing and personalized offers. Companies can
also integrate their loyalty programs with digital wallets,
options. They continue to evolve, new B2B payment solution aimed at businesses, incorpo- making it easier for customers to collect and redeem re-
rating features like corporate virtual cards for employees’
incorporating advanced security digital wallets (e.g., Apple Pay, Google Pay) to allow detailed
wards, enhancing customer engagement.
features and expanding usability management of expenses with set limits and merchant Consumers now expect to be able to pay with a digital
specifications. wallet. These tools offer convenience and ease to consum-
across global marketplaces, ers and often have features that allow users to track their
Major wallets like Apple and Google provide support for
enhancing user convenience and non-payment information, like ID and insurance cards. In
spending and manage their finances more effectively. As
they become even more ubiquitous, younger generations
financial accessibility. mid-2023, Google Wallet announced new features to sup- are becoming used to carrying only their phone, reducing
port passes with barcodes or QR codes, health insurance the use of physical wallets.
cards, driver’s licenses, transit passes, and company IDs.

TRANSACTIONS Mastercard is developing a solution to simplify in-vehicle

purchases, connecting a vehicle’s computing system with
For banks and paytech companies, seamless in-vehicle
transactions and enhanced digital payments using natural
FROM ANYWHERE merchant payment systems. It introduces a token that

contains details about the user’s payment account, the car,
language inputs and blockchain scalability open up inno-
vative avenues for service delivery and revenue generation.
and a biometric identifier. This token allows the vehicle to Banks can tap into new markets by integrating their ser-
initiate transactions, verifying payments by matching token vices with vehicles, offering customers the convenience of
details with the user’s biometric data. It streamlines the conducting transactions on the go.
payment process, especially for purchases made without
This technology will also require robust security measures to
WHAT IT IS leaving the car.
protect sensitive biometric data and comply with stringent
Technology is revolutionizing Mastercard has also filed a patent for digital payments
using natural language inputs. It enhances user verification
data privacy regulations. Adopting zero-knowledge proof and
blockchain technologies like ZK Rollups could further stream-
commerce by leveraging by employing authentication factors, including biometrics, line transaction processes, making them more secure and
algorithmic purchasers and other device location, and transaction history, to confirm user
identity. The system leverages server technology to interpret
efficient, thus bolstering trust in digital banking services.
features that extract data directly user commands for scheduling payments, authenticate
On the insurance front, blockchain’s transparency and
security features could revolutionize claims processing and
from vehicles or other sources the user through these multifaceted checks, and efficiently
carry out transactions.
fraud prevention, offering a more efficient and trustworthy
and process transactions without system. While the example here discusses data in vehicle
Zero-knowledge proof (ZKP) is a way of sharing that some- settings, this technology will undoubtedly be applied to
traditional secure elements. These thing is true between two parties without revealing any extra other settings too, expanding the availability of high-fidelity
innovations enable consumers to details about why it’s true. Companies use a feature of ZKP, real-time data for insurers.
called succinctness, to create more efficient blockchain sys-
engage in seamless and secure tems known as ZK Rollups which enable blockchains to han-
The evolution of vehicle-based commerce could lead to
new cyber products for original equipment manufacturers
transactions from anywhere. dle a vast number of transactions. ImmutableX, a ZK Rollup
(OEMs), especially if the OEMs are housing or storing the
built on the Ethereum blockchain, supports the economies
data. These companies may require additional coverage as-
of video games. Before ZK Rollups, creating real-time, block-
sociated with digital transactions, data breaches, and even
chain-based economies and gameplay experiences was im-
identity theft related to biometric data.
practical because of slow transaction times and high costs.

SCENARIOS
SCENARIO YEAR 2035
What If Invisible Finance Enables Undetectable Fraud?

By 2035, the financial ecosystem, once praised for its innovation and security, faces a significant challenge. The “Invis-
ible Finance Revolution,” with its digital IDs, biometric checks, and automated transactions, is now vulnerable to data
poisoning. This shift from conventional financial oversight has allowed cyberattacks to corrupt our AI systems, leading
to distorted financial services. Fraudulent transactions and false insurance claims are rising, exploiting the once-se-
cure blockchain technology.
The problem is exacerbated by our over-reliance on the system’s reliability. The absence of friction in transactions led to
an absence of vigilance: the convenience of not having to manually verify transactions has become a significant weak-
ness, with financial irregularities often going unnoticed. Financial institutions, previously considered protectors of this
digital space, are now struggling to fix these security breaches. Even with advanced encryption and fraud detection, they
find themselves outpaced by these threats, shaking public trust in the financial system.
The current crisis highlights the downside of a frictionless financial world. The lack of transaction scrutiny has opened
up significant security gaps. This situation serves as a reminder of the importance of balancing the embrace of new
technologies with robust oversight and flexible security strategies. The idea of an invisible, effortless finance system
has shown the importance of reevaluating our dependency on such technologies.

GOVERNANCE

RISING CYBER RISK In July 2023, a JPMorgan Chase Zelle outage affected over
$2 billion in daily transactions and raised concerns about
As cyberattacks grow more sophisticated, with AI-powered
deep fakes and ransomware, financial institutions must
the resilience of banking systems. The incident, marking invest in real-time threat detection and response systems.
the second major Zelle glitch in six months, underscores The introduction of advanced authentication methods, like
the challenges of real-time payments and the urgent need those by JPMorgan Chase, marks a significant move to-
to modernize core banking infrastructures to ensure reli- wards fighting identity theft and financial fraud. Multi-fac-
ability and trust in digital financial services. tor authentication, biometrics, and device identification
enhance transaction security and protect against fraud.
WHAT IT IS
In early 2024, stock-lending platform EquiLend was hit by
a ransomware attack by LockBit, disrupting its operations Recent cybersecurity incidents, including the JPMorgan
Amid digital transformation, that handle trillions of securities transactions each month.
LockBit, a ransomware group, sought to negotiate a ransom
Chase Zelle outage and the EquiLend ransomware attack,
underscore the vulnerability of financial systems. Modern-
banks and insurance companies for unlocking the systems. izing banking infrastructure to be resilient is crucial for
face escalating cyber risks. In a recent patent application, JPMorgan Chase introduced
minimizing operational disruptions and boosting customer
confidence in digital finance.
Cyberattacks, from data a sophisticated method that leverages secondary identifi-
cation information and electronic device identification to The evolving nature of cyber risks has also prompted chang-
breaches to ransomware, threaten authenticate transactions, significantly enhancing identity es in regulatory frameworks. Financial institutions and
financial stability and customer theft protection. The importance of identification technol- insurance companies must review their policies regularly to
ogy has only increased over the past year, as numerous ensure ongoing compliance with current and future regula-
trust. Enhanced cybersecurity financial institutions were hit by a wave of AI-powered tions. Educating customers on cybersecurity and the risks
and regulatory compliance are deepfake technology in financial fraud, where voice deep- of deepfakes will also play a key role in building a secure
fakes were increasingly used in bank scams and imposter financial ecosystem.
essential to protect sensitive data schemes, tricking individuals and financial institutions.
The evolving nature of cyber threats could make it difficult
and maintain sector integrity. for insurers to assess risks and price their products accu-
rately. This uncertainty in underwriting can lead to mispriced
policies, affecting the profitability of insurance companies.

GLOBAL CRYPTO The UK government plans to enact cryptocurrency regula-

tions within six months, to enhance consumer protection
Financial institutions and insurance companies will have
to navigate this complex regulatory environment for at least
REGULATION and foster ethical innovation, fulfilling promises made by

Prime Minister Sunak during his 2022 campaign. The reg-
the next several years until things begin to align. The best
practice is to develop operations around the strictest envi-
ulations are expected to include guidelines for crypto ex- ronment to ensure global operations remain compliant and
changes, trading platforms, and custodians under traditional prepare for forthcoming regulations. For example, financial
financial services rules. institutions serving multinational companies must ensure
their clients are compliant across their jurisdictions.
WHAT IT IS
US regulation over crypto came in the form of SEC enforce-
ment in 2023, when the commission filed five high-profile The ability to transact across borders using cryptocur-
Cryptocurrency regulation varies lawsuits against major crypto companies. The Clarity for
Payment Stablecoins Act of 2023 was passed by the House
rencies presents opportunities and challenges for banks
and insurance companies. Cryptocurrencies can facilitate
globally, but many nations are Financial Services Committee in July of 2023, leaving many faster and cheaper international transactions by bypassing
working to pass regulation, hopeful that the official legislation will pass sometime in
2024. Broad-sweeping crypto regulation is unlikely in the US
traditional banking networks and exchange rate complica-
tions. However, this also introduces regulatory complexities
striving to balance investor due to polarization in Congress and election year dynam- regarding jurisdiction and compliance with disparate inter-
protection, financial stability, and ics, but the industry is still working to prepare for potential
incoming laws.
national laws.
innovation. Efforts aim to address As regulatory clarity improves and institutions increasingly
The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) announced a adopt cryptocurrencies, their usage will likely rise, bringing
risks like fraud while embracing new regulatory framework for stablecoins and their issu- new or escalating risks. These include market volatility, cy-
digital currency opportunities, but ers, focusing on single-currency stablecoins pegged to the bersecurity threats, and operational risks, such as the safe
Singapore dollar or any G10 currency. Essential requirements custody of digital assets. Insurance companies, in particu-
the borderless nature of crypto include ensuring value stability through asset reserves, lar, need help with underwriting policies for crypto-related
creates a complex regulatory maintaining minimum capital, allowing redemption at par risks due to the technology’s lack of historical data and
within five business days, and making necessary disclosures rapidly evolving nature.
patchwork. to users. This framework aims to safeguard financial stabil-
ity and investor protection, distinguishing MAS-regulated
stablecoins for easier identification by users.

ALTERNATIVE Credolab employs a novel approach to credit scoring and fi-

nancial inclusion by leveraging privacy-consented, permis-
Alternative credit scores enable financial institutions and
insurance companies to tap into previously inaccessible
CREDIT SCORING sioned smartphone and web data. Their technology, which
avoids AI, focuses on user behavior and anonymized meta-
segments. By considering factors beyond traditional credit
histories, such as utility payments or rent, companies can
data to predict creditworthiness, aiming to reduce onboard- identify creditworthy individuals among the unbanked or
ing friction and expand financial services to underserved underbanked populations. This approach diversifies their
populations. Credolab partners with companies like Prove- customer base and opens up new revenue streams by of-
nir and TransUnion to enhance financial inclusivity through fering financial products to a larger, yet previously deemed
WHAT IT IS alternative data and behavioral analysis. risky, demographic.
Alternative credit scoring A new credit scoring model has identified 2.7 million new
potential home buyers, unlocking a $1 trillion opportunity
Integrating alternative data into credit scoring models pro-
vides a more nuanced understanding of an applicant’s finan-
represents an approach to for lenders. VantageScore’s latest model, required by regula- cial behavior, leading to more accurate risk assessments. For
evaluating an individual’s tors by 2025, expands access to credit by including under-

served markets. The model, which has been used since 2017
instance, analyzing transaction histories, savings patterns,
and even social media behavior could unveil insights into a
creditworthiness that diverges by over 3,000 financial institutions, improves predictive person’s financial stability and reliability. This enriched data
from traditional methods. It accuracy using non-traditional data, benefiting consumers

with limited credit histories or who are new to credit.
pool allows for finer differentiation between high and low-
risk clients, potentially reducing default rates and enhancing
incorporates a broader spectrum the overall quality of loan and insurance portfolios.
Pagaya leverages AI and alternative data to enhance credit
of data, including utility bill decision-making, promoting financial inclusion. Through Implementing AI-driven credit scoring models streamlines
payments, rent, bank account analysis of extensive data points, Pagaya provides recom- the credit assessment process, making it faster and more
mendations for borrowers who may not meet traditional cost-effective. Traditional methods involve manual checks
information, and even patterns FICO scores, benefiting those with limited credit histories. and lengthy paperwork, but AI can quickly analyze vast
of digital interactions, providing Working with partners like TransUnion, Pagaya offers a more amounts of alternative data, delivering instant credit deci-
holistic view of creditworthiness, significantly impacting sions. These alternative scoring approaches reduce opera-
a more holistic view of a person’s underserved communities and facilitating access to finan- tional costs by minimizing the need for extensive human
financial behavior. cial products for millions. intervention and accelerating time to market for financial
products.

SCENARIOS
SCENARIO YEAR 2030
What if AI Redefined Financial Compliance?

In 2030, AI and machine learning have transformed regulatory compliance in the financial sector. This shift began as financial insti-
tutions and regulators recognized the potential of AI to enhance the efficiency and accuracy of compliance processes. Large banks
quickly adopted AI to monitor transactions and identify regulatory issues in real-time, significantly reducing compliance costs and
improving risk management.
However, this rapid adoption highlighted a growing divide. Smaller financial institutions struggled with the high costs of integrating
sophisticated AI systems, placing them at a competitive disadvantage and raising concerns about a two-tiered financial system.
By 2030, efforts to address this divide were underway but remained in the early stages. Initiatives included providing subsidies and
developing open-source AI tools to help smaller firms afford and implement AI compliance technologies.
Regulators also began adapting their expectations, recognizing the resource gap between large and small institutions. These mea-
sures aimed to level the playing field, ensuring that all financial institutions, regardless of size, could benefit from AI in compliance.
Despite these efforts, the digital divide in financial compliance is only starting to be bridged. The industry and regulators continue
to seek solutions that ensure equitable access to AI technologies, underscoring the need for ongoing innovation and policy adjust-
ments. The journey towards a fully inclusive digital compliance ecosystem is just beginning, with the hope that further advance-
ments and collaborative efforts will eventually resolve the disparities.

DEFI
MODELS

ROUTES TO WEB3 Visa is expanding stablecoin settlement by incorporating

the Solana blockchain alongside Ethereum and collabo-
Traditional financial service providers risk being sidelined
as Web3 technologies enable direct peer-to-peer transac-
rating with Worldpay and Nuvei. This move enhances the tions without the need for intermediaries like banks or pay-
speed and efficiency of cross-border settlements, facilitat- ment processors. Web3 could erode their revenue streams
ing faster transactions using stablecoins like USDC. Previ- and necessitate a shift in business models towards val-
ously, settling cross-border purchases on Crypto.com Visa ue-added services that leverage blockchain technology.
cards involved lengthy currency conversion processes and
The decentralized nature of Web3 platforms complicates
expensive wire transfers.
WHAT IT IS
regulatory compliance for traditional financial service
Microsoft is partnering with Aptos Labs to bring AI and providers and insurance companies. Ensuring adherence to
Over the past year, despite down Web3 together, allowing Microsoft’s AI models to train on
Aptos’ verified blockchain data. This collaboration aims to
existing regulations while navigating new and evolving reg-
ulatory frameworks presents a significant challenge. Firms
crypto markets, developers & increase trust and transparency in AI through blockchain’s must invest in robust compliance mechanisms and engage
institutions have made strides in immutability and verification capabilities. proactively with regulators to mitigate regulatory risks.
integrating traditional finance For the first time, TransUnion partnered with Spring Labs and Similarly, adopting smart contracts and decentralized pro-
Quadrata to deliver off-chain credit scoring to DeFi and Web3 tocols in Web3 presents an opportunity for traditional finan-
& Web3. Headline-grabbing applications. This partnership will enable decentralized lend- cial institutions to streamline operations and reduce costs.
Bitcoin & Ether ETF filings have ing platforms to assess risk better when lending to consum- These firms can enhance efficiency and remain competitive
ers, allowing more consumers to access these platforms. in a rapidly evolving landscape by automating insurance
overshadowed equally impactful claims, underwriting, and settlement processes.
JPMorgan executed its first DeFi trade on a public block-
technical work enabling chain, facilitated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore’s Ultimately, to stay relevant in the era of Web3, traditional fi-
connectivity between TradFi & Project Guardian, exploring DeFi applications in wholesale nancial institutions must embrace innovation and invest in
markets. Meanwhile, the London Stock Exchange Group is research and development of blockchain-based solutions.
crypto building the first major blockchain-powered marketplace Investment may involve partnering with or acquiring fintech
for traditional financial assets. The platform will streamline startups specializing in decentralized finance (DeFi) or
global trading and improve speed, cost-efficiency, transpar- developing in-house expertise to build and integrate Web3
ency, and security by using tokenization to represent assets technologies into their offerings.
like stocks and bonds as digital tokens.

PROGRAMMABLE In late 2023, the Singapore Fintech Festival partnered with

Amazon to experiment with programmable money. They pro-
Programmable money could streamline the operations of
financial institutions and insurance companies. Current-
MONEY vided attendees with a voucher that was placed in their digi-
tal wallet and could be spent with specific vendors; the funds
ly, many aspects of companies’ accounting, payables, and
other financial processes are conditional and dependent
were only released once the participant received the items. upon meeting specific requirements. If programmable mon-
ey does scale, it could enable firms, especially those in the
JPMorgan introduced a programmable payment feature finance industry, to automate a meaningful portion of their
targeting institutional clients on its JPM Coin blockchain back-office operations and reduce human interaction in
WHAT IT IS
platform. This feature facilitates real-time, programmable those tasks to oversight and validation.
treasury and digital business models. In November 2023, the
Programmable money, or “Pur- feature went live with Siemens AG being the first to use it; Fe-
dEx and Cargill are expected to follow. The feature allows for
While today’s banking systems are still somewhat be-
holden to data entry, which can fall victim to human error,
pose Bound Money” (PBM), refers dynamic funding and event-based payouts. JPMorgan is also programmable money depends on an immutable set of
to digital currencies or assets that said to be developing another blockchain-based solution for
cross-border transactions, awaiting regulatory approval.
criteria that can be measured and validated. As a result, the
scaling of programmable money could significantly reduce
can be controlled and manipulat- errors that result from misentry or incomplete information.
Pave Bank has launched with a digital banking license from
ed through code or programma- the country of Georgia and $5.2 million in seed funding, led
For the same reason, programmable money could improve
transparency in financial reporting for both businesses and
ble logic. Unlike traditional forms by 468 Capital and others. Pioneering as the world’s first financial institutions.
“programmable bank,” it aims to transform banking by
of money, programmable money offering robust services like multi-currency accounts, global The principles of programmable money could extend to other
enables developers to embed payments, and an institutional asset network, promising digitized assets, such as paperwork, contracts, or ownership
the safety of client funds. Highlighting the ability to bridge certificates. In this example, the transfer of contracts or
rules and conditions into trans- digital and real-world assets, it champions a significant shift ownership could be programmed as dependent upon anoth-
actions, allowing for automation in approach to combined banking services. er factor. For example, the transfer of a digitized home deed
would not be sent until the lender had received the loan pro-
and customization of financial ceeds. In addition to speeding up administrative processes,
processes. this new feature could help augment existing legal proce-
dures and create a digital trail for complex transactions.

ASSET One patent recently filed outlines a technology platform

that leverages blockchain and AI to tokenize large-scale and
Tokenization divides traditional assets into smaller shares,
making it easier for investors to buy and sell parts of assets.
TOKENIZATION traditionally illiquid assets through a novel two-tier process.

It introduces General Asset Tokens (GATs) and Specific Asset
This increased divisibility improves the liquidity of assets
like real estate or art, broadening access to investment
Tokens (SATs), where GATs represent shared ownership in a opportunities and allowing a wider range of investors to
diversified asset pool, and SATs offer individual ownership in participate in markets previously accessible only to wealthy
specific assets chosen from this pool. The process is under- or institutional investors.
pinned by smart contracts, ensuring secure, efficient transac-
To achieve interoperability, institutions will need access
WHAT IT IS tions and immutable records on a blockchain network.
to a comprehensive registry service that details tokenized
Digitization of assets refers Salesforce recently filed a patent application that describes
a system for managing assets on the blockchain through a
assets in a standardized way across multiple blockchains.
This visibility is crucial in establishing trust in digital
to converting physical or non- process called Multiple Decentralized Tokenization with Per- transactions and verifying ownership without the need for
digital assets into digital form. sonal Control (MDTPC). These tokens can be treated similarly
to securities, so their trade may be subject to securities laws.
centralized authorities.
This transformation allows Traditional blockchain asset management suffers from a lack
Tokenization can reduce costs and complexity. By digitizing
assets, traditional intermediaries such as brokers, banks,
assets, such as art, real estate, of cross-ledger recognition and individual control over asset
management. Salesforce’s proposed solution overcomes
and lawyers may become less necessary, lowering transac-
or intellectual property, to these issues by allowing users to choose how and when as-
tion fees and disrupting the industry. Blockchain’s built-in
efficiency can streamline operations, reduce paperwork, and
be tokenized on blockchain sets are evaluated and which blockchains to use for manag-
ing their asset data.
make the entire investment process more efficient.
platforms, creating digital tokens The transparency of blockchain ensures that every transac-
Another invention from Data Vault Holdings describes tokeniz-
representing ownership or a share ing precious assets like real estate or art to represent owner-
tion and ownership change is recorded on a ledger that is
immutable and accessible to all participants. This level of
of the asset and allowing it to be ship and facilitate transactions. A data platform receives the
openness enhances trust among stakeholders and facil-
corporate data, which is then segmented and tokenized. The
monetized in new ways. corporate data is valued, and potential monetization strate-
itates compliance with regulatory requirements through
programmable tokens that automatically enforce rules and
gies are determined. This approach creates a way to value and
restrictions related to investor qualification, geographic
exchange real-world assets on digital platforms more easily.
limitations, and trading volumes.

SCENARIOS
SCENARIO YEAR 2035
What if DeFi Reinvented Protection for High-Value Assets?

Historically, insuring high-value assets involved complex layered coverage with multiple carriers providing primary, secondary, and excess
policies. This patchwork approach was necessary to cover the full extent of risk but created gaps, overlaps, and administrative headaches.
The advent of blockchain-based fractional asset ownership and programmable money has turbocharged the reinvention of layered cover-
age models. In 2035, when securing protection for a $50 million Cézanne painting, for example, the owner can now tokenize and sell off 15%
shares to help fund a personalized smart policy administered by a single decentralized platform.
This primary parametric coverage is directly priced and programmed according to the asset’s attributes. Orchestration smart contracts then
dynamically spread secondary risk protection across a fluid syndicate of global capacity providers. Coverage limits, exclusions, and collateral
requirements are automatically optimized, with premiums held in escrow via programmable stablecoins.
If a loss occurs, validated payouts are instantly triggered to the token holder’s wallet up to policy limits. Parametric triggers and predeter-
mined payout schedules eliminate adjusters. Excess coverage above primary policy limits is also pre-bound using prediction markets for
capacity bidding.
Fractional tokenization creates the fractionalization of risk - and the ability to program predefined coverage conditional on tokenized collat-
eral unlocks exponential configuration possibilities. Owners now bypass the friction of layered policies to achieve customized, end-to-end
intelligent protection for their prized possessions.

AUTHORS &
CONTRIBUTORS

MELANIE SUBIN Chief Executive Officer

Managing Director AMY WEBB
Melanie Subin is Managing tication, changing consumer and business preferences, and rising Creative Director
Director of Future Today Insti- connectivity on the evolution and transformation of industries and EMILY CAUFIELD
tute, where she serves on our markets across the globe.
management committee and Editor
Melanie is a recognized expert in fostering psychological safe- ERICA PETERSON
leads our consulting division.
ty within teams, a crucial element for operationalizing strategic
Renowned for her pragmatic, forward-thinking approach, Melanie
foresight effectively. Her work emphasizes creating an environment Copy Editor
has successfully steered numerous clients towards future-ready
where open dialogue and innovative thinking are encouraged, SARAH JOHNSON
strategies, harnessing emerging trends and technologies to identify
enabling organizations to embrace change and navigate future
risk and opportunity early enough for action. Her leadership has
uncertainties with confidence. Director of Operations
significantly impacted how industries envision and execute their
CHERYL COONEY
long-term strategies. Melanie serves in the World Economic Forum’s Metaverse Work-
ing Group and is a founding member of the Dubai Future Forum’s
Melanie specializes in strategic transformation, quantitative and
advisory group. She serves as a coach in the strategic foresight MBA
qualitative research, and scenario development. With deep exper-
course at the NYU Stern School of Business. Melanie holds a BS in
tise in the development and establishment of foresight capabilities
Finance from Central Connecticut State University and a Fintech
within large organizations, Melanie regularly counsels C-staff on
Certification from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.
strategy and execution. She has spent years assessing the impact
of major external forces such as increasing technological sophis-

NICK BARTLETT GRANT TINKER

Director Associate
Nick Bartlett is a Director at the Future Today Institute and leads our Grant Tinker served as a Strategic Foresight Consultant at Future
Insurance practice area. Today Institute following his graduation from NYU Stern School of
Business, where he earned an MBA with specializations in strategy,
Before FTI, he held positions in corporate strategy and insights
entrepreneurship & innovation, and marketing. He brings a strong
generation roles, serving as a partner to senior leadership at multiple
financial background as a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) and
his multiple years of corporate finance experience from SaaS companies in Silicon Valley to his work.
has specialized in framework design, corporate innovation, strategic management, and insurance.
In addition to his MBA, Grant holds a Bachelor of Science in Economics from California Polytechnic
Nick has an extensive background in developing strategic insights across a variety of industries (e.g., State University.
manufacturing, transportation, construction, energy) and subject matter areas (e.g., small business,
mobility, robotics, platforms & ecosystems), in addition to the shifting nature of business and consumer
preferences. He has deep experience developing and implementing trend modeling and signal iden-
tification for large organizations. Nick has also led the design and establishment of internal foresight
and scenario development capabilities across multiple institutions.
MBA and a Bachelor of Arts in Public Relations from Quinnipiac University.

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Extraction.” Astera, April 10, Identification Cards for Mobile ment, Verification, and Track- al-Time Cardholder Authentica- https://patentscope.wipo.
2023. https://www.astera.com/ Applications.” https://patenting.” https://patentscope.wipo. tion of a Payment Transaction.” int/search/en/detail.jsf?do- “US20240029048 Systems and
type/blog/insurance-data/. scope.wipo.int/search/en/detail. int/search/en/detail.jsf?do- https://patentscope.wipo. cId=US418582812&_cid=P12-LS- Methods for Use in Enabling De-
jsf?docId=US335379849&_ci- cId=US406484531&_cid=P12-LS- int/search/en/detail.jsf?do- 1WPS-62765-2. vice-To-Device Communication,
“Unlocking $1 Trillion Opportu- d=P12-LSJQEE-29886-1. JQAZ-27576-1. cId=US417731018&_cid=P12-LS- Based On User Interactions With
nity: 2.7 Million Potential Home 1WPS-62765-3. “US20240013176 Computer-Im- the Devices.” https://patent-
Buyers Identified with New “US20230071800 Platform and “US20230306413 Tokenization plemented Systems and Meth- scope.wipo.int/search/en/detail.
Credit Scoring Model.” National Method for Tokenization of Pre- of Real-World Objects and Mone- ods for Payment Routing.” jsf?docId=US420409578&_ci-
Mortgage Professional, October cious Physical Assets.” tization Thereof.” d=P12-LS1WPS-62765-1.
17, 2023.

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“US20240029065 Method and “Visa Expands Stablecoin Settle- “Why Tokenized T-Bills Are the “Zelle Outage at JPMorgan Chase
System for Federated Virtual ment Capabilities to Merchant Ac- Next Big Thing for Crypto Inves- Is Red Flag for Banks.” American
Card.” https://patentscope. quirers.” Visa, September 5, 2023. tors.” Non-Custodial Finance, Banker, July 27, 2023. https://
wipo.int/search/en/detail. https://usa.visa.com/about-visa/ December 4, 2023. https://www. www.americanbanker.com/
jsf?docId=US420409595&_ci- newsroom/press-releases.html. noncustodial.finance/news/ news/zelle-outage-at-jpmorgan-
d=P12-LSUNER-48560-1. why-tokenized-t-bills-are-the- chase-is-red-flag-for-banks.
“Wall Street Stock-Lending Plat- next-big-thing-for-crypto-inves-
“US20240031167 Systems form Crashes in Ransomware tors. Zerucha, Tony. “Credolab Takes
and Methods for Maintaining Attack.” American Banker, January Unique Approach to Credit
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ties.” https://patentscope.wipo. banker.com/articles/wall-street- Data Privacy Developments Fintech Nexus, June 1, 2023.
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cId=US420411697&_cid=P12-LS- in-ransomware-attack. ary 5, 2024. https://www.wilm- credolab-takes-unique-ap-
1WJJ-60118-1. erhale.com/en/insights/blogs/ proach-to-credit-scoring-finan-
“What Will Banks’ Tech Priorities wilmerhale-privacy-and-cyberse- cial-inclusion/.
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Utility Lines.” https://patent- americanbanker.com/list/what- cy-developments-from-2023.
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jsf?docId=US421386375&_ci- in-2024. “Your Paycheck Could Clear
d=P12-LSTHIM-36601-1. Faster Now That the FedNow
“Why FedNow’s Real-Time Pay- Instant Payment Service for
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Pass Stablecoin Laws in 2024: Modern Treasury, April 18, 2023. July 20, 2023. https://apnews.
Circle CEO.” The Block, January https://www.moderntreasury. com/article/fednow-mon-
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laws-2024-circle-ceo. 42289cb7dc95f.

SPORTS
INDUSTRY SPORTS
TABLE OF CONTENTS
734 Top Headlines 748 Augmented Experiences 760 In the Office
at Home (Team/Business
735 State of Play
Management)
749 Sports Betting and Investing
736 Key Events
Soars 761 Commitment to Sustainable
737 Likely Near Term Sports
750 Destination Sporting Events
Developments 762 Surprising Mergers
751 Scenario: What if
738 Why Sports Trends Matter and Acquisitions
customizable content puts
to Your Organization viewers in complete control? 763 Alternative Leagues
739 Opportunities and Threats 752 On the Field and Associations
740 Investments and Actions (Athlete Experiences) 764 Advanced Analytics for
To Consider 753 Augmented Game Scouting Talent
741 Central Themes Management 765 Unique and Innovative

754 Virtual Trainers Partnerships
742 Ones To Watch
755 Augmented Training Analytics 766 Geopolitics of Sports
743 In the Stands
(Fan Experiences) 756 Athletes as Brands 767 More Inclusive and
Accessible Sports
744 Flexible Content Models 757 Innovations in Equipment
768 Scenario: What if
745 Fandom on the Blockchain 758 Advances in Sports Medicine consolidation was inevitable?
746 Adaptive, Dynamic, and and Wearables
769 Authors
Immersive Advertisements 759 Scenario: What if automated 771 Selected Sources
747 In-Person Mixed Reality platforms democratized
Experiences sports?

INDUSTRY SPORTS
TOP HEADLINES 01 Analytics Get integrated Into Sports

Sports are benefiting from data’s abundance in all aspects of life, impacting
both player performance and organizational management.
The world of sports
is being transformed 02 Athletes Steal the Spotlight
by increased use of Since the days of Michael Jordan, athletes have been their own brands, but never
more than now. Athletes are transcending their sports and all for the better.
analytics, innovative
platforms, and more 03 Personalized Fan Experiences Rise
Personalization is now crucial for attracting and keeping new fans, and
customizable fan technology is enabling it across game viewing, shopping, and even advertising.
experiences.
04 Extended Reality Goes Mainstream
XR and other augmented realities are becoming more pervasive for both live
events and at-home experiences.
05 Sports and Politics Mix

Sports and politics have always been inextricably connected, but now,
this connection is extending to the geopolitical realm.

INDUSTRY SPORTS
STATE Technology is leaving an indelible mark on the world of sports at all levels. It is im-
pacting how managements run their organizations and scout players, how athletes
train, rehabilitate, and interact with the game itself, and how fans experience events
OF PLAY
at home and in person. While these areas seem somewhat independent of one an-
other, they actually work in concert to affect the overall product on the field that is
delivered to fans.
When it comes to managing the game, leadership and coaches are equipped with
tools to make their jobs easier and remove biases. Platforms such as Plaier and
AiScout are not replacing the role of the coach but are serving as supplementary
tools to capture analytics and statistics that otherwise might have gone unnoticed.
Such information is being stored in central repositories, such as the Chicago Black-
A suite of technologies is creating hawks’ Madhouse to inform all internal operations.
competitive advantages for As athletes use technology to improve their skill set, they will see increased per-
formance from a host of new innovations. Mixed reality goggles assist swimmers
managers, coaches, and athletes, as they train. Virtual reality is increasingly helping athletes with reaction time and
while also impacting how fans training for in-game scenarios, ultimately leading Germany’s U17 football team to a
championship. Platforms such as the Catapult athlete-monitoring system provide
experience the game. athletes with recommendations to improve performance and minimize injuries.
These technologies are also impacting management and coaches’ decisions.
Aside from these aspects, technology provides unique and customized experiences
for fans, whether that be the game experience or how they shop and consume ancil-
lary products. Augmented reality is providing fans with immersive experiences rang-
ing from “Toy Story”–themed games to smart stadiums to virtual arcades. Universal
golden records follow fans through omnichannel user journeys, allowing teams to
engage the fans at all levels. As management teams find new ways to interact with
fans, increased revenues will ultimately be used to enhance the product on the field,
not just the experience in the stands.

INDUSTRY SPORTS
KEY EVENTS
F E B R UA RY 2 4 , 2 0 2 3 A P R I L 1 7, 2 0 2 3 JUNE 6, 2023 O C TO B E R 1 , 2 0 2 3
MLB Institutes the Pitch Clock Debut of the Cavs ARcade PGA and LIV Shock the World ESPN Hosts “Toy Story” Football
In a radical move to reduce game During the NBA playoffs, the Cleveland The former rivals announce their An animated telecast of the
duration and minimize downtime, Cavaliers use the augmented reality of agreement to form a unified Jaguars-Falcons London game
the MLB puts a time limit on ARound to create digital experiences at commercial entity. places NFL players in Andy’s toy-
pitchers and batters at the plate. their Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse. filled room.
MARCH 14, 2023 APRIL 21, 2023 S E P T E M B E R 2 0, 2 0 2 3
Bally Goes Bankrupt Russian Athletes at ALBA Games MLB Hosts Virtual Game
Diamond Sports, owner of Bally Russian athletes were invited to After launching in the summer,
Sports, files for bankruptcy compete under their nation’s flag at the MLB’s virtual ballpark hosts
after missing a $140 million the 2023 ALBA Games in Venezuela. its first regular season game,
interest payment. between the Tampa Bay Rays
and the Los Angeles Angels.

INDUSTRY SPORTS

SPORTS: COMPLEX AND DYNAMIC More Immersive Experiences Broadcasting Rights Lead to Turmoil Olympics Serve as a Protest Platform
The sports industry is poised for a Sports teams already use mobile devices to As live sports broadcasting contracts become The Olympics have always served as a geopo-
major transformation in 2024, with a provide augmented experiences and activa- more expensive, streaming platforms and litical platform, but the 2024 Games could be
tions for in-person events, and now this capa- tech companies will make more competitive exploited in unprecedented ways. Considering
host of exciting challenges and inno-
bility will occur in homes. Spatial computing bids to expand their user base. However, over- the Israel-Hamas war and Jewish populations in
vations on the horizon that will have allows for more 3Dt renderings of a game as if paying for negotiating rights could lead to France, along with Ukrainian’s aversion for Rus-
a profound impact on the way fans you were there. long-term financial impacts, putting stream- sia, the Olympics will likely serve as a venue of
ing platforms in significant financial trouble. protest unlike what we’ve witnessed in the past.
engage with sports, creating bespoke
and immersive experiences like never
Increased Web3 Adoption Influence Expands from the Middle East Automated Game Management Expands
before. However, alongside these tech-
nological advancements lie a range This year will reveal the true usefulness of Golf has felt the impact of Saudi Arabia’s sov- Technologies for managing games and match-
Web3 technologies such as using blockchain ereign wealth fund through the merger of the es, such as electronic line calling in tennis,
of business and political obstacles for creating consolidated golden records, digi- PGA Tour and LIV. Likewise, Qatar has leveraged automatic balls and strikes systems in base-
that must be overcome, putting the tal fan passports, and dynamic ticketing, and its sovereign wealth fund to impact soccer ball, and semiautomated offside technology
efficiency of decision-making mecha- highlight how these novel approaches will im- clubs FC Barcelona and Paris Saint-Germain. for soccer, are creating fairness and minimiz-
pact the fan experience. As teams and leagues These nations will expand their control with ining human error. More leagues will be pres-
nisms to the test.
work out the issues and take advantage of creased economic investment in sports includ- sured to adopt similar technologies, especially
Web3, more organizations are likely to adopt it. ing soccer, boxing, cricket, and even basketball. as the stakes increase from sports betting.

INDUSTRY SPORTS
WHY SPORTS TRENDS MATTER TO YOUR ORGANIZATION
Appropriating Building a Experimental Customized, Inclusive Taking Advantage

Environmental Personal Brand Partnerships Personalized Management of Virtual
Solutions Advertisements Practices Environments
Like many industries, Athletes are growing their Sports partnerships Sports associations have While discriminatory The sports industry
sports play the role of individual platforms in have traditionally been developed technology practices in sports can has embraced virtual
both the victim and villain unprecedented ways. New formulaic in nature. But capable of creating occur at all levels and environments and
in climate change. The regulations in conjunction now, more creative and targeted advertising stages, some leagues virtual reality as tools for
proactiveness of some with a suite of unique partnerships that is customized to have taken significant training and conditioning.
sports organizations technologies are offering are emerging. Some the market or even to strides to eradicate them Although VR cannot
can provide lessons and athletes new sponsorship have matched brands individuals viewing a and create inclusive fully replace real-life
solutions for smaller and and monetization with common synergies game. Implementing environments for experience, it has shown
more fledgling leagues opportunities. These and core competencies, these methods, as well employees and personnel. to have a positive impact
or associations and for trends can impact resulting in genuinely as frequency capping Other organizations, on athlete training. Other
divergent industries such younger athletes or even customer-focused and frequency control, both within and beyond industries can learn from
as the built environment. individuals in other services. These examples can result in unique sports, also have valuable these examples and add
industries hoping to grow can serve as a template advertisements less examples of ways new training modalities to
their platforms. for other businesses likely to disillusion the inclusion has impacted their arsenal.
seeking fresh ideas. audience. their businesses.

INDUSTRY SPORTS
Legacy sports organizations must attract younger audiences to avoid There is an immediate opportunity to resolve issues plaguing distribution
financial losses. The MLB has taken steps to address this issue, but it models. The organization best poised to navigate regulatory hurdles and
remains to be seen whether they are enough to guarantee long-term engineer new digital platforms could disrupt the market.
success.
Individual sports teams will find tremendous benefits from building golden
The speed of sports is getting faster, and with that comes the increased fan records and digital sports passports. Such platforms will enable teams
risk of injury to athletes. Organizations not exploring regimens to ensure to fully know their customers and track them through the entire customer
reduced injuries are setting themselves up for failure, and ultimately an
journey.
impact on revenues.
Customized and personalized experiences and activations are becoming
As climate change worsens, sporting events, especially those conducted
outside, could become less tenable. Even indoor sports such as hockey more viable and executable. They can be used to engage fans in ways that
could be impacted by rising global temperatures. leave them feeling surprised and delighted.
Using technology to address inclusivity and accessibility can prove to be Hosting destination sporting events in picturesque locations can be costly
valuable, but not fully pressure testing the technology can result in failure and difficult to carry out. However, new technology is enabling sporting
if it makes target audiences feel even more marginalized. events to take place in any virtual environment, offering fans special
experiences.
It is becoming more common for sports organizations to use centralized
management tools or create a centralized operating system. Organizations Advanced analytics and artificial intelligence are leaving a lasting mark on
that do not use these tools risk falling behind their competitors. various aspects of sports, including player performance, scouting, and team
management. More opportunities will surface for using such applications in
the future.

INDUSTRY SPORTS
1 2 3 4 5 6
Investments in sports sci- Creating immersive expe- Sports organizations will Seek out partnerships with Invest in technology and While risky in nature,
ence have dual benefits. riences in extended reality increasingly chase sustain- organizations adjacent to platforms aimed at building upstart leagues offer op-
Fewer injuries or reduced will keep fans engaged, ability, whether that comes your own but not entirely in individual brands for ath- portunities, though they’ll
time lost to injuries is im- whether they are at a from an intrinsic need to your domain. One example letes that help expand their require unique value prop-
measurably beneficial to sporting event or watching help the environment or of such a partnership is reach and audience size. ositions. While examples
both sports teams and ath- from home. Mastering these from a desire to impact that of the WWE and UFC: The phenomenon of ath- like Tiger Woods’ and Rory
letes. But value also comes new forms of storytelling their bottom line. First mov- Together, these brands can letes as brands is only be- McIlroy’s experimental
from these new procedures can give organizations new ers in this area will initially cater to both audiences coming more pronounced, golf league benefit from
becoming increasingly revenue-generating oppor- benefit from the advantage without cannibalizing their and organizations that can celebrity backing, there
available to the general tunities if they share their of sustainable practices, business. It also avoids help facilitate this growth are significant investment
public. knowledge through consul- but can also sell climate IP antitrust violations. will reap significant bene- dollars to be earned for
tation with other groups. to other businesses. fits and rewards. such endeavors.

INDUSTRY SPORTS
CENTRAL THEMES
Reach Fans Wherever They Are Expanding to Younger Audiences Sports Tech’s Alternative Uses Vulnerability Breeds Reactivity
The way we consume sports is ripe for Reaching newer fans and younger demo- The most cynical among us may question the Sports leagues, like many legacy organiza-
change—and innovative solutions. Over the graphics is challenging, and so is keeping utility or meaning of sports, pondering why tions, have often been slow to evolve. Be-
past year, it’s become obvious that archaic their attention for prolonged periods. Gen professional athletes are paid such exorbitant cause of the hesitancy to make large-scale
distribution models are no longer adequate. Zers consume sports much like they con- salaries to essentially play a game. But sports overhauls, sports leagues make themselves
Diamond Sports’ Chapter 11 filing indicates sume other media, producing headwinds for can justify itself to even the harshest critics vulnerable to outside pressures. Conse-
that as consumers move to leave cable tele- the industry. According to Morning Consult, through the innovations it brings to adja- quently, specific leagues have been forced
vision in droves, the traditional way of broad- 54% of Gen Zers spend at least four hours cent and seemingly unrelated industries. The to make reactive decisions to remain rele-
casting games is no longer a sustainable way daily on social media, primarily on YouTube, sustainability measures implemented in auto vant or as a means of protecting themselves
to reach fans, and in turn a poor generator of Instagram, TikTok, and Snapchat. These are racing and new stadium operations can be from impending competition. Major League
revenue. Fans who have moved away from ca- also the very platforms where most Gen Zers carried over to how we live our everyday lives, Baseball, a league traditionally resistant to
ble often cannot access local games because discover news related to sports. Short-form providing new solutions to address existential change, took on the risks of implementing
of blackouts. Even subscribers of streaming media is obviously limiting when it comes to climate threats. Advances in sports medicine the pitch clock, step-off limits, bigger bases,
options like YouTube TV, Hulu + Live TV, or attracting this audience to full-length sport- can have tremendous impacts on human and PitchCom for pitchers—to mixed results.
Sling TV have been prevented from watching ing events, but sports executives realize the health and longevity that could one day be As another example, such vulnerability forced
their games of choice because of issues with magnitude of the challenge. To grow interest available to mass markets. Advances in wear- the PGA Tour to seek partnership with its big-
renewal agreements. In response, Phoenix among even younger audiences, such as Gen able technology can improve health diagnos- gest rival, LIV, completing a full reversal of its
Suns owner Mat Ishbia has turned to prim- Alpha, networks can continue to broadcast tics for general consumers. Sports can serve initial stance and completely ignoring legal
itive methods to reach fans, by offering free fully animated sporting events through part- as the platform to resolve our cultural, polit- conflicts in the process to foster the merger.
antennas that can access local broadcasting nerships with brands such as Disney’s “Big ical, and social conflicts and sticking points. When sports leagues are slow to adapt, they
games. Such solutions will continue to be City Greens” and “Toy Story.” In this way, sports transcend mere play and ultimately will be caught flat-footed and
needed until new models of consumption are competition, emerging as a dynamic force that forced to make decisions that can be incon-
available to the masses. enriches our lives and champions progress. sistent with their core values.

INDUSTRY SPORTS
ONES TO WATCH
Sandy Khaund, CEO and founder of Creden- Jeffrey Jordan, co-founder of Heir, for serving Dr. Per Reinhall and Dr. Samuel Browd, Adam Silver, commissioner of the NBA, for
za, for his contributions to Web3 and block- Gen Z fans by providing community-focused co-founders of VICIS, for protecting players unabashedly bringing innovations to a major
chain software revolutionizing the sports content centered around their favorite players. through innovative helmet designs. sports league.
experience.
Alex Morgan, Sue Bird, Chloe Kim, and Ben Sherwood and Reed Shaffner, Eileen Jurczak, CEO of Xonic Golf, for creat-
Brian Kaiser, co-founder at Hudl, for develop- Simone Manuel, co-founders of TOGETHXR, for co-founders of MOJO Sports, for creating a ing iTQ, an AI-powered caddie app tailored to
ing software that provides video analysis and creating a platform to uplift the next genera- platform that keeps kids more engaged in each golfer that provides real-time quick tips
coaching tools for sports teams. tion of women in sports. sports. on how to improve.
Aron D’Souza, president of the Enhanced Chen Shachar, co-founder and CEO at Play- Ted Sullivan and Kiril Savino, co-founders of
Games, for controversially pushing the Sight Interactive, for his contributions to the GameChanger, for creating a tool kit to help
boundaries of athletic competitions to drive emerging market of affordable consumer athletes self-promote and get noticed.
human innovation. sports analytics systems.
Jonathan Soros and Jon Patricof, co-found-
Mat Ishbia, owner of the Phoenix Suns, for Oliver and Amber Marmol, co-founders of VS, ers of Athletes Unlimited, for creating a
commitment to increasing accessibility of for launching an edtech platform aimed at public benefit corporation to empower elite
sports for his local market. mentoring aspiring athletes. women athletes.
Shawn Beaudette, assistant professor of George Sun, CEO and founder of Nextiles, for Marie Donoghue, vice president of global
kinesiology at Brock University, for his con- merging flexible electronics with soft goods to sports video at Amazon, for bucking the
tributions in creating a 3D motion capture create a data analytics platform that mea- trend of linear viewing and offering a new
system to impact sports performance. sures human performance. way of watching football.
Michael Horvath, co-founder of Strava, for Olivia Dunne, American gymnast, for making Jan Wendt, Tim Schröder, and Johnny
developing technology that makes exercising it easier for female athletes to secure endorse- Wilkinson, co-founders of PLAIER, for devel-
more engaging and interactive. ment deals. oping a platform that democratizes player
scouting in football.
Joel Embiid, basketball player for the Phila- Phil Southerland, founder of Supersapiens,
delphia 76ers, for launching Miniature Géant, for using biosensor packs to create a sys- Darren Peries, founder of Ai.io, for creating a
a new production studio that amplifies voic- tem providing real-time glucose visibility to platform to assist clubs and scouts in find-
es and inspires a new generation of athletes. athletes. ing and developing amateur players.

INDUSTRY SPORTS
IN THE
STANDS
FAN EXPERIENCES

INDUSTRY SPORTS
FLEXIBLE CONTENT Recast offers an alternative to traditional ad-based or sub-

scription models for content consumption. Users are given
RSNs in the United States are in dire circumstances, facing
challenges from changing consumer habits in conjunction
MODELS the option to pay for content by either using an in-platform

currency or by earning credits from watch ads. This serves
with other economic forces. In 2023, Diamond Sports Group,
which runs the notable RSN Bally Sports, filed for Chapter
as a flexible and privacy-laden solution for viewers while 11 bankruptcy protection and missed payments to many of
content creators benefit from larger shares of the revenue. its partnering sports teams. Many RSNs are now exploring
Recast has currently been adopted by the World Curling direct-to-consumer platforms, but existing contractual
Federation and the Hibernian Football Club of the Scottish agreements are complicating such transitions. While the
WHAT IT IS Professional Football League. ESPN is exploring a one-stop landscape is in flux, teams, leagues, and RSNs are scram-
shopping model that would connect fans to live sports bling to develop sustainable business models for consum-
With the rapid demise of regional broadcasts from various streaming services directly on ers who value flexibility and accessibility.
its platform. ESPN would receive a portion of the revenue
sports networks (RSNs), flexible generated from sales, with the remainder going to stream-
A survey conducted by Verizon Media indicates that sports
fans are largely willing to pay more for live sports streaming,
and accessible content models ing services originally in possession of the broadcast rights.
but only if providers give more access to the sports teams
Roku has delivered the Women’s Sports Zone, a centralized
will need to fill this new void. hub on its platform that simplifies access to women’s
and leagues they are interested in. The research ultimately
determined that fans are demanding more personalized,
Direct-to-consumer streaming sports content. It aims to match the increasing demand for
women’s sports content and make it easier for viewers to
flexible, and high-quality sports streaming experiences. In
services could meet fans’ access and watch. Google is adding new features and offer-
order to meet fans where they are, tremendous collaboration
is required from forward-thinking sports leagues and media
ings for its YouTube TV coverage of the NFL Sunday Ticket
expectations for personalized, package, including monthly payment plans, discounted
partners, as well as the patience needed to navigate the
flexible, and high-quality options for students, features allowing viewers to watch
murky landscape of content distribution contracts. Regard-
less, the current distribution system is no longer sustain-
multiple games at the same time, live chats, polls, and
experiences. New platforms are e-commerce integrations.
able, but the landscape is ripe for new opportunities.
emerging to give these fans what

they want.

INDUSTRY SPORTS
FANDOM ON THE The St. Louis Blues, a professional hockey team, have a
multiyear agreement with Credenza Inc. to integrate Web3
Web3 software has the power to revolutionize fan experienc-
es and interactions. By having a consolidated record across
BLOCKCHAIN software and technology into their preexisting fan engage-

ment platform, Bluenatics. This new platform iteration
multiple channels of a fan’s habits, purchases, and behav-
iors, teams and brands can offer fans real-time discounts,
called Bluenatics Passport will effectively function as a offers, and exclusive experiences. Teams will have the
universal ID, by tracking fan activities across ticketing, opportunity to offer fans rewarding gamified experiences
online purchases, concessions, in-person retail, and part- tailored specifically to the individual. They can enhance cus-
ner locations, and keeping a centralized repository of fan tomer interactions through surprise-and-delight experienc-
WHAT IT IS experiences across multiple touchpoints. Similarly, with es, including free or discounted tickets, merchandise, or gift
their move from Oakland to Las Vegas, the Raiders needed cards. Teams and brands can work directly with sponsors to
Sports teams are increasingly to better understand their new customer base. The football craft unique activations touching on preferences and hab-
team consulted Data Clymer to create their own golden its, backed by user data and analytics.
using blockchain and other fan record using Salesforce for customer data, Matillion
By having a comprehensive knowledge of each fan’s hab-
Web3 technologies to enhance for data extraction and transformation, Snowflake for data
its and behaviors, teams will be better equipped to craft
storage, and Tableau for analysis and insights. Sports
fan experiences by creating a Illustrated Tickets will use Web3 architecture for a different
personalized marketing campaigns, delivering customized
messages and offers as they form stronger relationships
consolidated golden record, purpose: Its Box Office, a blockchain-based ticketing and
event management platform, will offer the Super Ticket NFT
and boost engagement. Through unified records and omni-
digital passports, or enhanced product, which links video highlights, exclusive offers, and
channel strategies, teams can curate experiences for fans
at every possible touchpoint.
loyalty benefits to a ticket, enhancing customer relation-
ticketing experiences. Teams will ships and providing greater visibility in resales. The project Through other applications of Web3 technologies, brands
now be able to keep a universal involves collaboration with ConsenSys and Polygon. By can tie personalized video highlights and other engaging
using their platforms and technology, Box Office will offer a
record across multiple channels more flexible, scalable, and cost-effective way of managing
and collectible content to the digital ticket or customer
record. Fans will be empowered by having more visibility
and track fans’ interests and inventory and customer interactions. into ticket reselling, sharing, and gifting. Web3 technologies
have the ability to imbue new life and opportunities into
preferences through their entire traditional ticketing experiences.
user experience.

INDUSTRY SPORTS
ADAPTIVE, DYNAMIC, The German professional football league Bundesliga was

the first major European football league to adopt virtu-
As long as sports remain a major source of entertainment,
companies will continue to develop new methods of adver-
AND IMMERSIVE al advertising technology for broadcasted games. This

technology digitally inserts advertising imagery onto LED
tising to reap the revenue that comes with it. After dis-
ruptions due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the NHL explored
ADVERTISEMENTS perimeter boards surrounding the pitch and dynamically

changes during the course of the match. This advertising is
advertising opportunities to make up for lost revenues. The
integration of dynamic board advertisement was undoubt-
not viewable to the players or the fans in the stadium, only edly to the benefit of the league; however, this did not come
those watching from home. However, ads are different and without criticism. Early on, fans complained that moving
WHAT IT IS tailored to specific regions. During the 2022-2023 season, ads were distracting, and on several occasions, the glitchy
the National Hockey League became the next major league software has resulted in obstructed views of the game. The
Perhaps to the disappointment of to adopt similar technology. For these digital ads, the NHL technology has also been criticized for being problematic
partnered with the virtual ad company Supponor, and the for those with sensory processing issues; however, the digi-
fans, advertising through multiple initiative took seven years to develop. tal ads were nominated for a Sports Emmy Award, revealing
channels has become more Conversely, the Washington Commanders are using Bid-
their value for sponsors and owners.
advanced, pervasive, adaptive, stack Sports’ virtual advertising technology to create con- To optimize the fan experience in the face of advertising,
sistency across different channels. Bidstack’s technology brands can adopt specific techniques. By including fre-
and dynamic. Advertising can be actually synchronizes and manages activations both at the quency capping and frequency control, viewers will not see
adapted during live broadcasts team’s physical stadium and in digital environments like the same advertisement repeatedly, reducing fatigue and
video games and the metaverse. annoyance, and enhancing fan engagement. Contradictorily,
to cater to specific geographic when teams such as the Washington Commanders cre-
Millions.co is trying to capitalize on the hype of generative
audience segments or remain AI by developing an automated athlete influencer campaign
ate consistency of advertising across physical and digital
realms, fans can have an elevated experience when playing
consistent across physical and tool. Brands can turn plain English statements into AI-de-
veloped campaigns that feature multiple versions. Brands
video games, feeling more closely connected to the real mo-
dality. This also creates expanded revenue opportunities for
digital realms. can further customize content using specifics such as lo- teams and organizations.
cation, demographics, budget, and type. The AI purportedly
then optimizes the strategy based on these inputs.

INDUSTRY SPORTS
IN-PERSON In 2022, the Minnesota Twins were the first major sports
team to bring augmented reality to their home stadium.
AR experiences provide sports teams and brands with new
revenue streams and sponsorship opportunities. These can
MIXED REALITY ARound, an AR app developed by Stagwell, allows fans to

use their smartphones during breaks in the baseball game
be offered not only at stadiums but also to those streaming
or viewing live sporting events from home. More important-
EXPERIENCES to play interactive games with other fans at Target Field. The
app uniquely creates shared AR experiences for multiple
ly, these experiences can cater to younger audiences—espe-
cially valuable for leagues such as MLB facing the challenge
fans. The Los Angeles Rams also hired Stagwell to create of reaching and retaining younger generations of fans.
an AR experience for football games using ARound. The Potential sponsorship opportunities include branded AR
WHAT IT IS application features AR effects, interactive content that filters, virtual billboards, or advertising space.
coordinates with touchdowns and other events, unique
Mixed reality, or the merging of player animations, and other in-game prizes and contests.
AR also brings value propositions for the fans. Through
such technology, they can have access to real-time ad-
German football league Bundesliga has collaborated with
real-world environments with TV broadcaster Sky Deutchland and mobile operator Voda-
vanced stats with accompanying visual overlays to help
them better understand an individual player’s performance
computer-generated elements, fone to create similar augmented applications on phones
compared to the competition. Historical data visualizations
that offer multiple camera views and instant replays as well
is upgrading in-person fan as graphic overlays with statistical information and analyt-
enhance the experience, providing context and compari-
son to past performances. Interactive data experiences can
experiences at sporting events. ics directly on the pitch. Through a different approach, the
International Basketball Federation has installed LED glass
provide fans with unique and immersive ways of engaging
Through MR integrations, teams courts to augment the fan experience. Real-time statistics
with the game. Finally, AR applications can also serve as
an educational tool for fledgling fans trying to learn more
and other graphics that directly appear on the court in-
have new ways to engage with crease fans’ understanding of the game and the action in
about the sport.
fans and fans have more dynamic front of them—and encourages them to look up, away from
their smartphone. The NBA has also begun experimenting
experiences. with the floor, leveraging it for part of the 2024 All-Star
weekend. The celebrity game, skills competitions, and
famous dunk contest all took advantage of the augmented
court’s abilities. However, the All-Star Game still occurred
on a traditional wooden court.

INDUSTRY SPORTS
AUGMENTED Earlier this year, Super Bowl LVIII featured a special kid-cen-
tric broadcast on Nickelodeon, marking the first time the
Augmenting the at-home sports viewing experience is
another of the industry’s attempts to attract and cater to
EXPERIENCES AT Super Bowl has had a separate telecast on another network.

For the production, Nickelodeon’s visual style was incorpo-
younger audiences and generations. According to Morning
Consult, almost three out of five members of Gen Z who
HOME rated, including slime-filled end zones and appearances by

characters like SpongeBob SquarePants. In a similar vein,
have not watched a sporting event on TV in the past few
years said the major reason was a lack of interest in sports.
ESPN, Disney, and the National Hockey League collaborated Following that, 20% claimed games were too long. Reflecting
to create the NHL Big City Greens Classic. This innovative the shorter attention spans that viewers have developed
WHAT IT IS broadcast, made possible through player and puck tracking in our digital age, Gen Zers primarily get their news about
data, re-created an entire hockey game in real time within a sports from YouTube, Instagram, and TikTok but don’t use
When it comes to broadcasted virtual environment, using animated players whose move- these applications to livestream full games. As a result,
ments and actions were synchronized with the athletes on sports teams and leagues are increasingly focused on the
or streamed sporting events, the the ice. During the 2023 NBA All-Star Tech Summit, Com- “game beyond the game” as a way to attract younger con-
US’ four major sports leagues missioner Adam Silver demonstrated a future live game sumers. As the NFL attempts to do this with its Nickelodeon
streaming experience where fans can scan their own avatar partnerships, such broadcasts can serve both younger and
are using innovative digital and and place it in the game to replace an actual player. MLB older audiences, as added graphics do not completely ob-
virtual experiences to cater to has debuted a new virtual ballpark currently accessible only
on the web that allows fans to make customizable avatars
scure the game and invested parents can still enjoy a sem-
blance of a football game. The NHL’s approach with the “Big
new fans both young and old. with their favorite MLB jerseys and offers opportunities to City Greens” collaboration will primarily just serve a younger
interact with other fans virtually and participate in various audience, but the virtual environment could do more to
These experiences can place mini-games. The virtual ballpark resembles an actual base- keep them captive. However, either approach could be seen
your favorite sport in your favorite ball stadium and features stands occupied by virtual spec- as too gimmicky and disillusion traditional fan bases. Still,
tators. A giant screen within the park livestreams games customization is now the name of the game, and these
virtual setting, or they can place and other content. virtual experiences deliver just that. Through such chan-
a virtual representation of you nels, fans can have a wider selection of alternate languages,
high-profile influencer and celebrity commentary, enhanced
directly in the game. camera angles, and even integrated betting.

INDUSTRY SPORTS
SPORTS BETTING The combination of new technology and accessibility

through mobile devices has caused the sports betting and
Over $180 billion has been legally wagered on sports in
the past five years, generating $13.7 billion in revenue for
AND INVESTING investing industry to grow exponentially in the past several

years. Seeing this value, in 2023, American licensed sports-
sportsbooks. In 2022 alone, American consumers allocated
a larger portion of their spending to sports betting com-
SOARS wear retailer Fanatics acquired the US operations of Points-

Bet, the sports wagering operator and iGaming provider that
pared to expenses for ride-sharing apps and streaming
services, with a total of over $95 billion legally placed in
offered scalable cloud-based technology platforms. This bets within the nation. About 18% of American adults, or over
move marks Fanatics’ entry into sports betting, giving it 46 million people, either place bets or plan to place bets on
WHAT IT IS access to 15 states where PointsBet was licensed to operate. sports during a single season. Regarding sports investing,
Commonwealth enabled 390 shareholders of the Kentucky
Technology and evolving To benefit the bettors and fledgling investors of sports, a
host of technologies are being developed to enhance the
Derby winner Mage to increase their overall investment from
$170,000 to $5 million by selling shares at $50 each.
regulations have changed the customer experience. The sports investment app Common-
wealth is revolutionizing horse racing ownership by letting Technology is making both forms of activity more accessi-
way that individuals place bets individuals buy shares in racehorses for as little as $50 and ble and more attractive to a new demographic. Both betting
and make sports investments. earn a portion of the horse’s winnings. Rithmm is a sports and investing are attracting younger males in particular,
betting application using predictive analytics to inform bet- who are looking to spend their disposable income. Addition-
The ease of access to new tors’ decisions and ultimately enhance their performance. ally, the ease of accessibility through mobile sports betting
data, options for live betting, The app allows users to build a custom analytical model apps in conjunction with tech-enabled quick payouts is
backed by AI and based on their instincts, providing analy- leading to the adoption of new forms of betting and invest-
and mobile applications are sis for every game, recommended picks, predicted scores, ing. However, this new trend is not devoid of concern. While
bringing these services to broader win probabilities, and expected value on market odds.
Rithmm aims to make users more informed and thereby
sportsbooks have seen tremendous gains over the past few
years, there is the worry that even with relaxed regulations
audiences eager to win a large make sports betting more accessible. in new states, the sports betting market might already be
close to hitting its ceiling. But the bigger concern is the
payout. threat of increased gambling addiction. As betting only be-
comes more frictionless, so does the threat of an addiction
epidemic.

INDUSTRY SPORTS
DESTINATION More than a decade ago, the National Hockey League began
its annual outdoor ice hockey game, the Winter Classic,
Organizing sporting events in nontraditional locations in-
volves some level of risk. These spectacles are exorbitantly
SPORTING EVENTS which was typically hosted at iconic football and baseball
stadiums. In 2021, during the COVID-19 pandemic, the NHL
expensive, and low ratings could result in failure. But recent
events have paid off. For instance, the Lake Tahoe NHL game
televised a unique take on this concept, hosting two games featuring the Boston Bruins and Philadelphia Flyers drew
without in-person fans near Lake Tahoe, instead focusing over a million TV-only viewers, making it the most-watched
on natural landscapes capable of mimicking pond hock- NHL regular-season game on cable since 2002. It was also
ey. In a similar vein, Major League Baseball hosted its own the most-streamed game in NBC Sports Digital history.
WHAT IT IS events in iconic and scenic locations in 2021 and 2022. In Similarly, the Field of Dreams game between the Chicago
both years, they took place at a ballpark adjacent to the White Sox and the New York Yankees attracted an average
Professional sporting leagues “Field of Dreams” movie site in Dyersville, Iowa, a location of 5.9 million viewers across TV and streaming, making it
popularized by the 1989 film. In 2023, NASCAR held the the most-viewed MLB regular-season game on Fox Sports
have constructed outdoor Grant Park 220 in the streets of downtown Chicago: the first since 2005. Additionally, this production was praised for its
facilities to enhance the viewers’ time the NASCAR Cup Series held a street race. This devel- storytelling capabilities. Although the pandemic may have
oped from an imaginary street course NASCAR conceived of contributed to the success of these two examples, NA-
experience, providing spectacular in 2021 for the eNASCAR iRacing Pro Invitational Series—a SCAR’s Grant Park 220 was also deemed a success and was
and picturesque environments to series of simulated racing events that occurred during the
pandemic. And even when games wouldn’t physically take
the second-most watched race of the season. These events
should be commended for their innovativeness, as they
engage fans, both old and new. place in scenic venues, technology can step in: The NHL is have the potential to encourage leagues to explore interna-
considering using the puck-tracking technology featured tional expansion in more exotic locations and potentially
The advent of new technologies in last season’s popular Big City Greens Classic to expand grow global audiences. With new digital technology, leagues
could enable sporting events to virtual viewing feeds in locations such as the National Mall can also experiment with hosting events in virtual locations
or Central Park. This technology offers endless possibilities to test groundbreaking ideas before investing in expensive
be hosted virtually in any location for projecting games in captivating locations. physical locations.
imaginable.

INDUSTRY SPORTS
SCENARIOS
SCENARIO YEAR 2027
What if customizable content puts viewers in complete control?

While disappointment and frustration were the hallmarks of trying to access sports during the early 2020s, by
the end of the decade, accessibility is no longer an issue because of the abundance of flexible content models.
Sports fans have full access along with complete customization options. AI recommendation engines suggest
content to users before they even access their personal portals. Once logged in, the system automatically selects
the preferred viewing area of a particular user, whether that’s directly behind the backboard or from an aerial
birds-eye view. The viewer can change this with ease in real time as their preferences shift. The platform also sug-
gests iconic overlays to virtually house the game in locations such as the Roman Colosseum or on the surface
of Mars. If this isn’t a viewer’s thing, they can simply opt for the traditional analog setting. When the platform
senses users are losing interest, it engages them in activations and activities to heighten the experience. And
if you thought this could only be enjoyed at home, viewers can have the same experience in the stadium using
augmented reality headsets. With all of their preferences saved, all viewers have to do is remember their headset.
They can enjoy all their favorite customized settings at home or on the road.

INDUSTRY SPORTS
ON THE
FIELD
ATHLETE EXPERIENCES

INDUSTRY SPORTS
AUGMENTED GAME The Association of Tennis Professionals announced that

Electronic Line Calling (ELC) Live will be implemented into
By implementing technology assistance into sporting
events, the overall hope is that it would at the very least
MANAGEMENT all matches beginning in 2025. Chair umpires will still

oversee matches, but ELC Live will eliminate the role of line
result in consistent calls, and at best ensure accuracy
and perfection in the moderating of the games. As sports
judges. In European football, the Champions League intro- betting becomes ubiquitous, an increasing number of
duced semiautomated offside technology during the 2022- fans will endorse such technology, especially as they have
2023 season in an effort to improve the accuracy and speed money on the line, and the difference of millimeters, un-
of offside calls. This technology uses 12 specialized tracking detectable to the human eye, could mean the difference
WHAT IT IS cameras positioned underneath the stadium roof to closely in a major payday or a significant loss. But purists will be
monitor the ball’s movement, capturing up to 29 distinct more critical of the technology, saying that it goes against
Leagues are increasingly using data points for each player on the field at a frequency of 50 the spirit of the game and even that human error is funda-
times per second. The 29 data points account for all perti- mental to the sport. Implementing technology assistance
technology to augment or even nent limbs and extremities needed to accurately determine into more events will affect stats, records, and individual
replace human judgment and offside calls and allow for accurate calculations of a player’s achievements of athletes moving forward. Despite the view
on-field positions. As of 2023, all Triple-A ballparks now use of fans from these individual camps, there are additional
help make rulings within sports robot umpires to call balls and strikes using the Automat- benefits for implementing such technology. It does have the
games. Some will colloquially ic Balls and Strikes system (ABS). Half of the games will
use an ABS challenge system where team managers can
potential to bring about consistency in officiating. The ABS
system establishing a consistent strike zone has already
refer to this phenomenon as robo challenge calls—which will be overturned or upheld at ABS’ received overwhelming positive support. Additionally, this
discretion—while the remaining games will use ABS to de- technology could eliminate arguments with officials and
umpires or robo officials. As the termine all calls using an electronic strike zone. make the games fairer. However, to ensure fairness in all in-
pace of sports becomes faster, stances, it will be complicated and difficult to develop more
technology to completely replace officiating.
an argument could be made that
technological assistance can add
integrity to the games.

INDUSTRY SPORTS
VIRTUAL TRAINERS Sense Arena has been around since 2018, and since then
has been pioneering the use of VR in training for both hock-
Using virtual reality to train athletes might appear gim-
micky or awkward to some. It might also be met with criti-
ey and tennis. The comprehensive platform features over 60 cism or doubt from specific athletes themselves. While of
drills that can be tailored to specific age groups and skill course virtual reality is not a sufficient substitute for the
levels. Organizations including the NHL and USA Hockey real thing, it can augment and assist traditional training
have recognized the potential value of such training, which and is proving to have its place in robust athlete training
can place players in realistic game-like scenarios off the regimens. For athletes such as hockey players, VR can en-
ice. The University of South Florida has recently introduced hance their decision-making skills and overall performance.
WHAT IT IS Sense Arena to its tennis program, allowing players to It can provide intense and targeted training scenarios for
engage in training sessions without needing a full tennis players, and it can position them in real-world situations at
Virtual reality is increasingly court. To help simulate real-world experiences, players can times when ice time is not available. Also, it can offer train-
adjust settings such as wind speed and court surface, and ing opportunities to athletes with reduced risk of injury, as
being used for training regimens be subjected to crowd noise. Germany’s U17 football team they can train without the risk of a 100 mph slap shot going
and conditioning. While not a has also turned to virtual reality to train its players, specif- high and striking them in the face.
ically to improve their awareness, decision-making skills,
substitute for the real thing, VR scanning ability, and cognitive skills. The team cites such
Virtual reality training will not be for everyone, but it is al-
ready proving to be effective. As the fidelity of virtual expe-
provides athletes with simulated training as instrumental in achieving their first Europe-
an U17 Championship in 14 years. Tulane University is also
riences improves, so will the capabilities it will offer in the
scenarios that can enhance employing VR in its athletics program; however, it is taking
virtual training realm, providing athletes with more ways to
train, even from the comforts of their own homes.
a slightly different approach. The program uses VR head-
reaction time and decision- sets to help athletes achieve a more relaxed state before or
making, giving them new skills during games and competitions. The Tulane football team
has specifically used the headsets to deal with overheating,
and perspectives to use in live muscle cramps, and injury rehabilitation.
game situations.

INDUSTRY SPORTS
AUGMENTED Duke University’s basketball program has implemented

the Catapult athlete-monitoring system, which employs
Coaches and athletic programs will try almost anything
that promises to provide a competitive advantage. As it is,
TRAINING ANALYTICS advanced sports science technology to enhance player

performance and development. This system makes use
coaching can also be quite subjective, and coaching sug-
gestions can sometimes be perceived as arbitrary. But by
of sensors, accelerometers, GPS, wearable anchors, force implementing tools such as machine learning and AI into
plates, body weight tracking, and biomechanical analysis. performance analysis, coaches can gain a clearer under-
The New York Yankees have developed a state-of-the-art standing of player potential and use established bench-
pitching facility and player development complex named marks to arrive at a more quantified approach to their
WHAT IT IS the Gas Station. Within the facility are Trackman (radar) coaching, potentially minimizing biases that can impact
portable machines, Rapsodo (radar and camera) machines, their athlete assessments. Such systems can better gauge
Sports programs and teams high-speed Edgertronic cameras, and other equipment that player intensity during games and practices and inform
produce real-time feedback for pitchers based on elements coaching staff of how to best adjust workloads for players
are turning to a constellation of including spin rate, spin axis, vertical and horizontal drop, during games. Analysis from these systems can also help
technologies including motion and velocity. Wake Forest University also employs a pitching players reduce their risk of injuries.
lab that uses advanced technology including motion cap-
capture devices, cameras, ture cameras, force plates, and video software to develop
These systems might recommend just minor adjustments
to athletes’ performance and execution, but even the most
sensors, machine learning, and AI in-depth analysis of pitchers’ movements and mechanics.
Shawn Beaudette, an assistant professor of kinesiology at
minor adjustments can have monumental effects. Through
to improve player performance Brock University, has partnered with Chalk Monkey Labs to
practice and time, players can make holistic behavioral
changes and adjustments to their game, which is especially
create a 3D motion capture system to impact sports per-
and training. By establishing formance. The technology employs reflective markers and
beneficial during early and more formative years. This could
clearer training objectives, both specialized cameras to record movement data, which is
really benefit individual athletes when they are ready to
sign their next contract, and could mean the difference in
then analyzed by machine learning and AI to help coach-
coaches and individual athletes es establish objective benchmarks to help athletes make
millions of dollars.
will find benefits, impacting wins improvements.
and career earnings.

INDUSTRY SPORTS
ATHLETES AS Joel Embiid, a six-time NBA All-Star, is entering the media

industry by launching a production studio called Miniature
During Michael Jordan’s athletic career, he was the face of
multiple brands. But he didn’t own his intellectual property
BRANDS Géant in partnership with The SpringHill Co., backed by LeB-

ron James and Maverick Carter. The studio aims to inspire
during the peak of his fame. Additionally, he did not have
the advantage of direct social media interaction with fans.
and showcase stories of individuals who have achieved Present-day athletes have more opportunities to benefit
success through unconventional paths. Miniature Géant from technologies and platforms. With the emergence of so-
will explore various media formats, including unscripted, cial media, athletes have become media companies them-
scripted, audio, and branded content. Jeffrey Jordan, Mi- selves. They can produce and distribute content directly to
WHAT IT IS chael’s son, co-founded a Web3 sports technology venture their fan base, shaping their brand and monetizing their
called Heir. The company has launched its first mobile app, influence. This shift allows athletes to control their narra-
Many athletes, like NBA legend which aims to serve Gen Z fans by providing community-fo- tives and tap into new revenue streams through endorse-
cused content centered around their favorite players. Users ments and content licensing. By generating unique content
Michael Jordan, have gone can communicate with partner athletes, access exclusive such as podcasts, documentaries, web series, or books,
beyond their sports and created content, and find player-focused highlights and statistics. athletes can diversify their revenue streams and strength-
The app also offers community features such as games and en their brand equity. Owning this IP gives them greater
their own brands. This trend has events with rewards. Current NBA stars and other athletes control over their content and the ability to license it to
become more prominent in the have already joined Heir with more expected soon. Olivia
Dunne, an American artistic gymnast and social media
various platforms to generate income. With recent changes
to NIL regulations, athletes can benefit from their personal
age of social media. With new personality, has taken advantage of a 2021 Supreme Court platforms earlier in their careers. By embracing a media
ruling that allows college athletes to capitalize on their company mindset, utilizing social media, and focusing on
technologies and regulations, a names, images, and licensing (NIL). With over 4 million original content creation, athletes can experience signifi-
new generation of athletes can Instagram followers and 7.6 million TikTok followers, she is cant financial growth and open doors to new opportunities.
considered the top female athlete social media influencer This approach empowers athletes to control their narratives,
rise above their sports and create and is estimated to be worth $3.3 million. Dunne indicated expand their reach, and build strong relationships with fans
their own platforms. that she has received over half a million dollars for a single and partners.
post, making her one of the highest-earning college ath-
letes in the NIL era.

INDUSTRY SPORTS
INNOVATIONS IN The sports equipment manufacturer Wilson has developed

a prototype for a 3D-printed airless basketball that never
Innovations to sports equipment can impact the game at
large, or just offer individual players customization and
EQUIPMENT requires inflation. Wilson collaborated with EOS, an additive

manufacturing company to create the lattice-based struc-
personalization. As the industry makes changes and ad-
vancements, not all innovations will be well received, but
ture made from elastomeric polymer. The prototype primarily efforts to improve sports through experimentation are still
protects against deflation issues and contraction that can applaudable behaviors.
be caused by temperature changes. Per Reinhall and Samu-
Ultimately, innovations to athletic equipment can improve
el Browd worked together to start VICIS, a helmet company
the pace of play, make sports more entertaining, reduce
WHAT IT IS that makes soft-shell helmets designed to more efficiently
injuries, or even impact sustainability. According to Per-
absorb impacts. VICIS has worked with the NFL to manufac-
Sports equipment is technology ture position-specific helmets, customized for protection for
sistence Market Research, the sports equipment industry
is anticipated to reach $178.5 billion by 2033 with a 6.5%
key situations different football players find themselves in.
in and of itself, enabling athletes Using a deformable outer shell, these helmets have contrib-
compound annual growth rate from now until that year.
Businesses and organizations can continue to capitalize on
to achieve new feats and break uted to reducing head injuries in football. MLB pitchers are
the growth of the sports and fitness industries by devel-
now allowed to use PitchCom devices during games. These
previous records. Innovations in wearable transmitters allow players to communicate with
oping revolutionary equipment for both professional and
recreational sports markets. Innovations such as PitchCom
equipment have led to enhanced one another on the field without giving away visible signs
or verbal cues. Players (primarily pitchers and catchers)
have already proven their worth by speeding up play during
experiences for sporting events can use the device to send audio signals to other players
baseball games and adding more integrity to the game by
eliminating sign stealing. Baseball is a great case study for
indicating the desired pitch to use on a batter. This helps
by improving player performance, eliminate sign-stealing by opponents and offers language
the argument of bringing innovations to the sports industry,
making sports more entertaining, versatility to players whose native tongue is not English.
as the sport has traditionally been so resistant to change.
But even minor technological implementations have
BetterGuards braces are transforming basketball by offering
and reducing injuries. players unprecedented 360-degree freedom of movement,
brought improvements to the product in just a short period.
while also providing paramount ankle protection.

INDUSTRY SPORTS
ADVANCES IN Nextiles is a smart fabric technology company that focus-

es its products on athletes. The brand combines flexible
Sports are getting faster, and the risk of injuries is be-
coming greater. Over the course of 13 seasons, the average
SPORTS MEDICINE electronics with proprietary sewing technology into fab-

rics using Bluetooth connectivity to measure mechanical
number of injuries for all four major North American sports
was 62.49 injuries per 100 players per season, according to
AND WEARABLES changes, primarily to improve athletes’ techniques and

reduce the risk of injury. Notus Labs also has the ambition
the journal Nature. Sports-related injuries have impacts on
health care, creating potential cost burdens, and in extreme
of reducing injury through wearable devices. The Notus instances have harmful long-term physical and psycholog-
One is about the size of a quarter and provides noninvasive ical implications. However, advancements in sports med-
WHAT IT IS real-time monitoring of heart rate, core temperature, and icine and science in conjunction with technology such as
player movement. With its integrated platform, Notus can wearable devices can help the industry keep pace with the
With intense competition comes help prevent heat-related injuries. When injuries cannot rates of injury.
be prevented, Indian startup NxtQ aims to revolutionize
the risk of injury. Unfortunately, physiotherapy using wearable sensors from Movella DOT.
The primary concern is maintaining long-term health and
vitality for the athletes themselves. But the longer players
it is not possible to avoid, yet Using these sensors, NxtQ gathers important data for phys-
are out, the more significant their impact on team perfor-
iotherapists to administer remote diagnosis and treatment.
companies are developing a host NxtQ algorithms also help interpret data and aid in diagno-
mance and potential to impact business performance. This
is especially the case for star players missing significant
of technologies and wearables sis. Madrid-based company ThermoHuman is pushing for
the adoption of thermographic technology in the medical
time in the NBA, as individual players can have a greater in-
to try to proactively reduce injury departments of top European soccer clubs. By using ther-
fluence on the outcome of games. Teams and organizations
have a vested interest in preventing injury and expediting
mographic cameras to detect areas of heat and pressure
when possible, and provide in the body, this technology can provide insights for injury
recovery time when injuries are unavoidable.
new methods for more reliable diagnosis and treatment through fast and noninvasive Significant opportunities exist for companies to explore pre-
methods.
diagnosis and treatment in the ventative measures as well as post-injury rehabilitation, es-
pecially as the sports medicine market is predicted to reach
face of inevitable injuries. $7.2 billion by 2025, according to Allied Market Research.

INDUSTRY SPORTS
SCENARIOS
SCENARIO YEAR 2034
What if automated platforms democratized sports?

If Elliott Sartorius had been born during any previous generation, the likelihood of him becoming the world’s
most prominent soccer player would have been near-impossible, due to his family’s poverty. But thanks to auto-
mated scouting and coaching platforms, Sartorius discovered that he had a natural, yet raw, talent for the game
of soccer. At a young age, he used the CoachU platform, which assessed his natural ability and mental acumen
for the game of soccer, and indicated he excelled at all levels. Through motion capture technology, CoachU gave
Elliott virtual and augmented suggestions and recommendations to enhance his game before he developed any
unhelpful habits at a young age. In his teenage years, right before his eligibility to go pro, CoachU offered Sartori-
us an option to mutually benefit himself and his fledgling fan base. Through fractionalized investments, his fans
could essentially buy stock in his athletic career, helping Sartorius overcome the financial hurdles that would
have previously limited his involvement in the game at such a high level. By believing in himself (or believing
in the assessment from CoachU) Sartorius rose to stardom, winning lucrative paydays for both himself and his
early supporters.

INDUSTRY SPORTS
IN THE OFFICE
TEAM/BUSINESS MANAGEMENT

INDUSTRY SPORTS
COMMITMENT Across the world, many sports are going greener. IndyCar
has adopted several eco-friendly alternatives to traditional
David Goldblatt, author of “Playing Against the Clock,” has
identified sports as both a victim of and contributor to
TO SUSTAINABLE practices in an attempt to reduce environmental impact.

That includes using 100% renewable racing fuel—the sec-
the climate crisis. Climate change has negatively affected
sports and individual athletes in numerous ways. In 2020,
SPORTS ond-generation ethanol derived from sugarcane was devel-

oped by Shell and Raizen and has led to a 60% reduction
poor air quality from wildfires led many tennis players to
withdraw from the Australian Open. During the 2021 Tokyo
in greenhouse gas emissions. IndyCar has also adopted Olympics, athletes passed out and faced threatening health
Firestone tires made from sustainably sourced materials, issues because of exorbitant heat. The UN Department
WHAT IT IS which are recycled after use. Beyond IndyCar, the racing of Economic and Social Affairs projects that a quarter of
industry has moved toward electric and emissions-efficient England’s football stadiums (23 of 92) will be partially or
As climate change persists, hybrid alternative-energy vehicles, with Formula E leading totally flooded every year by 2050. In a 2018 report by the
the charge. In Seattle, Climate Pledge Arena, the home of the NHL, the league acknowledged that the climate crisis could
sports play the role of both victim NHL’s Seattle Kraken and the WNBA’s Seattle Storm is Zero endanger the sport’s heritage of being played outdoors on
and villain. Sports teams and Carbon certified by the International Living Future Institute. frozen ponds, but issues will also come with the increasing
This third-party certification highlights highly energy-effi- difficulty of maintaining indoor ice rinks with extreme tem-
organizations are beginning cient buildings designed to fully account for their carbon perature increases.
to lead with their actions by emissions impacts, and requires that 100% of the energy
tied to the project must be offset by renewable energy sourc-
At the same time, Goldblatt estimates the sports industry is
implementing programming and es. Climate Pledge Arena also includes rainwater harvesting
responsible for potentially emitting 300-350 million metric
tons of carbon dioxide per year. Creating the concrete need-
to support resurfacing the hockey rink ice and a zero-waste
operations that result in the use approach. German soccer club Bayern Munich is partnering
ed to construct stadiums and arenas and producing the
of less carbon. These measures with the Schwarz Group in a bid to enter the circular econ-
fabric for sportswear are also major contributors to carbon
emissions. The onus is on the industry to make meaningful
omy. Under this partnership, the environmental service
will be crucial to ensure that provider PreZero will oversee all waste management at the
change, and it is in a unique position to galvanize action: Its
broad social platform can be a strategic tool to influence at-
sports remain viable for years and club’s facilities. The mayor of Paris announced the city will
titudes and perceptions. Beyond this, sports can also serve
prohibit single-use plastics during the 2024 Olympic Games
decades to come. as a significant step toward addressing plastic pollution.
as the testing ground for new innovations. IndyCar is an
example of taking learnings from the track and using them
in road-going products.

INDUSTRY SPORTS
SURPRISING In June 2023, the PGA Tour and LIV Golf announced their plan
to merge commercial operations under common owner-
Before PGA and LIV’s announcement, 11 players had filed an
antitrust lawsuit against the PGA Tour alleging that it used
MERGERS AND ship. After some confusion, PGA clarified it would be stay-
ing intact as a separate, commercial entity underneath a
its position as a monopoly as an advantage over the com-
petition. This caused the PGA to countersue LIV Golf on the
ACQUISITIONS new structure. This new association will include the Tour’s
commercial assets, the European DP World Tour, LIV Golf,
grounds it was interfering with player contracts. With the
announcement of this partnership, members of Congress
and other golf-related commercial businesses of the Sau- are exploring whether the merger would actually violate
di Arabian Public Investment Fund. This announcement antitrust laws.
WHAT IT IS caught the world by surprise because of the previous hostile
If the partnership does get past this obstacle, it has dissi-
relationship between the two leagues. A similar situation
A series of mergers, acquisitions, happened in women’s professional hockey, where for more
dents for other reasons: Some say this is an attempt by the
Saudi regime to “sportswash” its reputation in exchange
than four years, the Premier Hockey Federation (PHF) and the
and new partnerships are having Professional Women’s Hockey Players’ Association (PWHPA)
for tens of millions of dollars. Undoubtedly, the merger will
result in significant monetary backing for the sport, and
a seismic impact on the world of were unable to come to an agreement that satisfied both
serves as a signal of a much larger Saudi presence in Amer-
sides. In July 2023, Mark Walter, owner of the Los Angeles
sports. These new institutions will Dodgers, revealed that his company had acquired the PHF
ican sports in the future. As for the players themselves, this
could increase their global prominence, giving them oppor-
have a major effect on how the and shortly after, ceased its operations. The PWHPA has now
ratified a collective bargaining agreement with Walter’s
tunities to earn more through endorsements. But, ultimate-
business of sports is conducted in group for the creation of the Professional Women’s Hockey
ly, such a merger could also enable the association to pay
the players less money as it exerts more control.
League (PWHL) consisting of six North American teams that
the future, how athletes are paid, will replace the PHF. In April 2023, World Wrestling Entertain- Regarding the merger of UFC and the WWE, ultimately, it
and how fans access the events. ment (WWE) and Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) an- gives the organizations more influence and power, resulting
nounced their merger, creating a new publicly traded com- in a new business worth a combined $21.4 billion. Leader-
pany under the control of Endeavor Group. Endeavor will own ship from both organizations believe it will allow for better
51% of the new combat sports and entertainment company, negotiated broadcast deals while keeping costs down for
while WWE shareholders will retain 49%. viewers. Combining two similar, but ultimately disparate,
organizations could benefit the organizations, employees,
and fans.

INDUSTRY SPORTS
ALTERNATIVE In a more controversial move, Australian entrepreneur Aron

D’Souza is launching the Enhanced Games. It is a primar-
It is no small endeavor to develop a new sports league.
However, with a distinct and different value proposition, a
LEAGUES AND ily Olympics-style competition with one major difference:

Athletes are allowed and encouraged to use performance-en-
startup league could offer something new. The TGL offers
a unique alternative to traditional golf leagues and has
ASSOCIATIONS hancing drugs. D’Souza plans to hold the inaugural games

in December 2024, featuring sports like track and field,
outlined its distinctive approach in its business strategy,
which includes creating franchises centered around cit-
swimming, weightlifting, gymnastics, and combat sports. In ies and involving prominent individuals as stakeholders.
golf, Tiger Woods and Rory McIlroy are leading a new venture. Despite hosting its events exclusively in a new arena in
WHAT IT IS The TGL is a high-tech, indoor golf league operated by TMRW Palm Beach, Florida, the TGL is making a deliberate effort to
Sports in collaboration with the PGA Tour. This tech-driven establish strong connections with specific cities, setting
Investors are showing competition will consist of 18 PGA Tour players, forming six it apart from its competing golf leagues, but taking a page
teams of three for 15 regular-season matches, then semifi- more directly from traditional sports franchises.
unprecedented interest in nals and finals. Each match will occur in a high-tech facility.
The controversial Enhanced Games probably will not rival
organized sports. This sometimes After talking to 50 different European clubs and stakehold-
the Olympic Games anytime soon, but D’Souza justifies it
ers and concluding that European football is under threat
results in new leagues that mimic and in need of change, A22 Sports Management is develop-
with the ulterior goals he hopes to achieve through the in-
stitution. He has expressed strong interest in exploring the
traditional associations but offer ing an 80-team seasonal competition called the European
Super League. This merit-based league comes as an alter-
boundaries of human achievements, ultimately envisioning
new value propositions, or in other native to a breakaway Super League that was announced in individuals in their 40s, 50s, and 60s breaking world re-
cords. D’Souza sees performance medicine as a pathway to
2021 led by 12 clubs including Real Madrid, Barcelona, and
instances a restructuring of long- Juventus.
optimizing anti-aging technologies for general use.
standing organizations to ensure The proposed European Super League is a bit more compli-
their prolonged success. cated. Through the original 12 team proposal, smaller teams
would be at a severe disadvantage. However, the 80 team
version could provide the foundation for the financial sup-
port the entire football ecosystem needs in order to survive
and succeed.

INDUSTRY SPORTS
ADVANCED Plaier aims to revolutionize player scouting by using AI to

conduct real-time analysis of soccer team playing styles
Using a constellation of technologies such as computer
vision, deep learning, and other AI applications, coaching
ANALYTICS FOR and rosters. The outcomes are correlated with data on over
100,000 players stored in the system, with their abilities
staff can greatly benefit by making more informed deci-
sions about their players and personnel. These network
SCOUTING TALENT weighted in relation to the specific needs of the club seek-
ing new talent. Through this systematic approach, the AI
technologies are merely tools and will not immediately
replace decades of institutional knowledge or experience
system leverages historical data to make predictions. The from tenured coaches, but they can add supplemental
Chicago Blackhawks are undergoing a significant internal insights and analysis, and help coaches make personnel
WHAT IT IS overhaul of their franchise, starting with the development of decisions more quickly and efficiently. There is the threat
an app called Madhouse. This app operates as a central ner- that such systems will not provide reliable information and
Advanced analytics have vous system providing comprehensive insights into hockey coaches could be hesitant to adopt these new technologies,
players, including their playing history, statistics, scouting but as the Moneyball phenomenon has indicated, those
increasingly been used over reports, interviews, and personality traits. Major League who first master new forms of analytics will have distinct
the years to inform coaching Soccer (MLS) has partnered with London-based startup Ai.io competitive advantages. Ultimately, though, the use of AI in
to deploy AI-powered tools for player recruitment, allowing sports and scouting will require substantial investment and
decisions. But now, artificial aspiring players to be scouted for free. Players can download careful integration.
intelligence is generating new Ai.io’s AiScout app and complete assessments and drills on
their mobile phones. The app will analyze their skills, and
Such technologies could help reduce biases that naturally
insights and analysis for scouting the MLS will evaluate the players through the generated
creep into decision-making, which is what the Blackhawks
hope will happen with the implementation of Madhouse.
data. Those with high scores will have the opportunity to
potential and established talent train with MLS teams in the US and Canada. Startup Sports-
This benefits the organization, but it also benefits the play-
at a level that was previously Visio uses computer vision and deep learning applications
ers. With the use of Ai.io, MLS decision-makers can choose
to scout players based on objective data, rather than just
to capture footage and action from basketball players and
unimaginable. automatically generate statistics and highlights.
opinion. This could potentially serve as a democratizer,
giving disadvantaged players a chance to have their talents
and skills considered, ultimately evening the playing field.

INDUSTRY SPORTS
UNIQUE AND In 2023, e-commerce company Zappos.com partnered with

the exhibition baseball team the Savannah Bananas to be-
Sports sponsorships and partnerships are as old as time.
They can be traced back to ancient Rome, when gladiators
INNOVATIVE come the official title partner and exclusive footwear partner
for their Banana Ball World Tour. The Bananas have tradition-
relied on the patronage of wealthy individuals to support
their training. The first recorded sports sponsorships took
PARTNERSHIPS ally had an ad-free experience, and this partnership evolved

due to Zappos’ strong customer-centric sensibilities. The
place during the 1896 Olympic Games. Since then, these
types of partnerships have evolved drastically and dynam-
partnership aims to merge fashion and sports, promising ically to influence marketing strategies. In that time, these
an exciting and unexpected experience for fans through a strategies have become more formulaic, but brands are
WHAT IT IS series of pop-up activations during the 33-city tour. Similar- exploring new ways to leverage the model.
ly, Spotify and FC Barcelona announced a long-term partner-
While sports sponsorships and ship during the 2022-2023 season. Under the agreement,
The partnership between Zappos and the Savannah Banan-
as aims to redefine brand culture and provide exciting ex-
Spotify is both the main partner of the club and its official
partnerships have essentially audio streaming partner. FC Barcelona updated its team
periences for fans of both brands, even those disillusioned
by traditional advertising models. In a different fashion,
existed since ancient times, a shirts with the Spotify brand and rebranded its stadium
the partnership between Spotify and FC Barcelona, with the
as Spotify Camp Nou. This unique partnership attempts to
series of unique and innovative connect music and football with the goal of creating a global
inclusion of Drake, presents a refreshed method for catering
to younger audiences and leverages three major platforms
collaborations are creating community of fans and artists. Spotify uses this partnership
to spotlight artists and creators, including in-stadium ele-
for cross-promotion. FC Barcelona has repeated this initia-
synergies and resulting in ments to showcase artists to the global TV audience during
tive with Spanish singer and songwriter Rosalía. The brands
have reported that this strategy has helped both the club
matches, using geo-targeting to highlight different artists in
increased exposure through the different markets. In this effort to showcase artists, FC Bar-
and the artist reach new audiences. Searches for Rosalía on
unlikely pairing of brands and celona honored Canadian performer Drake’s achievement of
Spotify were reportedly up a few hundred percent, and the
club received half a billion impressions from Rosalía being
reaching 50 billion streams on Spotify by featuring his logo
sports teams. during a match against Real Madrid.
broadcasted across their channels.

INDUSTRY SPORTS
GEOPOLITICS While the World Athletics Council has loosened previous re-
strictions levied on Russian and Belarusian athletes based
Sports and politics have a long-standing relationship that
cannot be ignored. Governments often use sports as a tool
OF SPORTS on doping allegations, the Council has now excluded the

athletes from its events indefinitely based solely on Rus-
to address various challenges such as economic growth,
diplomacy, and natural resource management. However,
sia’s invasion of Ukraine. In contrast, while the International recent events have highlighted how sports can also be
Olympic Committee (IOC) will not formally invite Russia or utilized for geopolitical posturing. The controversy between
Belarus to the 2024 Olympic Games, they may permit Rus- Russia and Ukraine is a prime example of how sports can
sian and Belarusian athletes to participate as “individual affect many stakeholders, including organizing bodies,
WHAT IT IS neutral athletes,” but not as representatives of their respec- media outlets, businesses, and nongovernmental organiza-
tive countries. If the IOC allows this, backlash could come tions. Decisions regarding this conflict and how they impact
In sports journalism, there has from Ukrainian athletes in the form of boycotting the games. sports have been complicated. Critics argue that athletes
should still be allowed to gain experience, showcase their
been the common refrain to In April 2023, Venezuela hosted the Alliance for the Americas skills, and compete on a global scale. Additionally, it can be
Games after a 12-year hiatus. Eleven countries participated
“stick to sports” rather than using in the event, including competitions such as boxing, gym-
argued that restricting participation in these international
events impacts the integrity of the competition, as this lim-
platforms to provide political or nastics, bodybuilding, swimming, chess, and dominoes. Par- its best-on-best competition. However, blindly allowing such
ticipating countries consisted mainly of Latin America and
cultural commentary. However, Caribbean nations; however, Russian athletes were invited
participation is at best a tone-deaf response to the severity
of the actions happening in Ukraine, and at worst, a flat-out
it is important to recognize that and allowed to compete under their nation’s flag. For Russia, insult to Ukrainians. While some athletes may want to focus
this could represent a symbolic victory over the perceived solely on the athletic aspects of these competitions, sports
sports and politics have always aggressive Western campaign to cancel Russian sports, and inevitably continues to be a platform for political strategy.
intersected, and this complex a means to strengthen their international ties.
relationship can have significant

geopolitical ramifications.

INDUSTRY SPORTS
MORE INCLUSIVE Sports management teams and organizations are work-

ing toward inclusivity and accessibility for players and
Sports organizations have a unique opportunity to advance
inclusivity and accessibility through their platforms. By
AND ACCESSIBLE fans. In partnership with Special Olympics Australia and

Playbk Sports, Gymnastics Victoria has created an online
dismantling cultural and social barriers, they can serve as
catalysts for social change. However, it is incumbent upon
SPORTS course called “Creating a Positive Experience for Athletes

with Autism in Gymnastics.” The course equips gymnas-
these institutions to ensure that their efforts toward inclu-
sion encompass all forms of diversity, including race, cul-
tics coaches with evidence-based techniques to enhance ture, gender, religion, and disability. This is vital to promote
the participation experience for athletes with autism, and acceptance and human rights, and eradicate discrimination
WHAT IT IS is widely accessible through Special Olympics Australia’s in sports. While technology may alleviate some inclusion
online learning platform. The Escoita App, created by AR- challenges, it can also lead to unintended consequences.
Sports have not always been MIS Digital Sport in collaboration with Jesus Suarez Lopez, FIFA, for example, faced backlash for its tech-driven ac-
provides a complete sports event experience to users with cessibility ticketing allocations, which ironically left some
the most consistent drivers of partial or complete vision loss, regardless of the sport. The fans feeling ostracized and marginalized. To prevent similar
social and cultural change, but app offers real-time audio description, reducing the delay missteps and foster inclusivity, sports organizations need
between the event and the narration. The goal of Escoita is proper implementation and execution. However, genuine
the industry is now transitioning to improve user experience, encourage inclusivity in sports, progress can only happen if there is a systemic dedication
to address inclusion and and foster a sense of community among fans. But to achieve
true inclusivity in sports, diversity and inclusion must also
to initiatives that yield results, starting at the leadership
level. Such leadership can transform sports into a more
accessibility at all levels, using happen within management and internal hiring. The WNBA inclusive and empowering field for all, impacting the fan,
is recognized as a leader in promoting diversity and inclu- athlete, and employee experiences.
technology and systemic change sion, with diverse representation from ownership to coach-
to usher in new experiences for es. The league consistently earns top scores for its racial and
gender hiring practices among professional sports leagues.
fans, athletes, and personnel in Among men’s leagues, both NBA and MLS have improved
sports management. their racial and gender hiring practices. However, the NBA
leads with more people of color in general manager and
coaching positions, as well as more women in senior man-
agement roles.

INDUSTRY SPORTS
SCENARIOS
SCENARIO YEAR 2040
What if consolidation was inevitable?

It was a seemingly normal Wednesday afternoon when Major League Baseball and Major League Cricket (MLC)
shocked the world by announcing they would join a collaborative venture called Major League Entertainment. The
properties will still maintain their names underneath the new umbrella company, and the leagues will not com-
pete against each other during their respective regular seasons. However, they will host two interleague exhibi-
tion games a year featuring all-stars from each league. This cricket match and baseball game will be hosted in
neutral international sites in iconic locations in an attempt to build and grow international audiences. The joint
venture was precipitated when MLB’s position was no longer tenable. Over the years, It has lost too many fans
to remain a sustainable entity. However, the league still had its brand reputation and legacy to give it credence,
something that MLC had not yet established. MLC, however, was better positioned as it continued gaining nation-
al and international interest. After considerable deliberation, both leagues agreed to the deal in principle. More
details should shed new light on this astonishing joint venture in the coming weeks and months ahead.

INDUSTRY SPORTS
AUTHORS &
CONTRIBUTORS

INDUSTRY SPORTS
NICK BARTLETT Chief Executive Officer

Director AMY WEBB
Nick Bartlett is a Director at the Future Today Institute and leads our Managing Director
Insurance practice area. MELANIE SUBIN
Before FTI, he held positions in corporate strategy and insights Creative Director
generation roles, serving as a partner to senior leadership at multiple EMILY CAUFIELD
has specialized in framework design, corporate innovation, strategic management, and insurance. Editor
ERICA PETERSON
Nick has an extensive background in developing strategic insights across a variety of industries (e.g.,
manufacturing, transportation, construction, energy) and subject matter areas (e.g., small business, Copy Editor
mobility, robotics, platforms & ecosystems), in addition to the shifting nature of business and consumer SARAH JOHNSON
preferences. He has deep experience developing and implementing trend modeling and signal iden-
tification for large organizations. Nick has also led the design and establishment of internal foresight Director of Operations
and scenario development capabilities across multiple institutions. CHERYL COONEY
MBA and a Bachelor of Arts in Public Relations from Quinnipiac University.

INDUSTRY SPORTS
SELECTED
SOURCES

INDUSTRY SPORTS
SELECTED SOURCES
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SPACE
INDUSTRY SPACE
TABLE OF CONTENTS
777 Top Headlines 794 Domestic Competition 811 Monitoring Orbital Debris 826 Universe Mapping
778 State of Play 795 Space Blocs 812 Deorbiting Debris 827 Space Habitats
779 Key Events 796 Geopolitical Tensions over 813 Commercialization of Space 828 Scenario: The Martens’ Month
780 Likely Near Term Space Junk on the Moon
814 Off-Planet Tourism: Getting
Developments 797 Scenario: Interplanetary to Space 829 Simulated Space
Park System Environments
781 Why Space Trends Matter 815 Off-Planet Tourism: Staying
to Your Organization 798 Space Industry in Space 830 Biological Adaptations
for Space
782 Opportunities and Threats 799 Space Factories 816 Space Entertainment and
Events 831 Official Investigations of UAPs
783 Investments and Actions 800 Biomanufacturing in Space
To Consider 817 Private Missions 832 Authors
801 Off-Planet Resource Production
784 Central Themes 818 Smaller Companies in Space 834 Selected Sources
802 The Satellite Boom
786 Ones To Watch 819 Scenario: Preparing for Game
803 Constellation Management
Day on the Moon
787 Important Terms
804 Mining
788 Space Politics 820 Origins of a Multi-Planetary
805 Space Infrastructure Species
789 Geopolitical Tensions in Space
806 Telecoms 821 Search for Far-Off Life
790 Emerging Space-Faring
Countries 807 Maintenance Missions: 822 The Search for Nearby Life
Satellite Servicing
791 Governing Space 823 Moon, Then Mars
808 Monitoring Earth
792 Space Defense 824 Scenario: The Moondust
809 Self-Assembly Tech Mariner
793 Scenario: Tax Tensions
on Mars 810 Green Propulsion 825 The Search for Cosmic
Resources

INDUSTRY SPACE
TOP HEADLINES 01 The race to the moon is heating up

Who can establish a base on the moon first? The highlight of recent successes and
failures include India’s landing on the moon’s south pole.
Access to space
is expanding, but 02 Space junk is still a threat
challenges persist SpaceX’s Starlink satellites performed 25,000 collision avoidance maneuvers in six
months, showing the continued need for innovative solutions.
due to investment
constraints, geopolitical 03 Distrust among the US and China extends into space
China has accused the US of militarizing space, while the US fears that China will use
tensions, and threats electronic warfare jammers to target US satellites.
from a crowded orbit.

04 Countries and companies rush to develop and bolster
space capabilities
Saudi Arabia, Scotland, and New Zealand are all increasing space capabilities
while NASA’s partnership with startups will further its moon pursuits.
05 SpaceX’s busiest year yet

In 2023, SpaceX conducted over 90 orbital launches, breaking last year’s record by 29.
The company also made strides on its Starship program, with the first two test flights
ending in explosions but achieving partial success.

INDUSTRY SPACE
STATE Space exploration is entering a new era defined by fresh geopolitical rifts alongside the rise of
new spacefaring nations. While the US and Russia unwind once-productive cooperation on proj-
ects like the International Space Station, this space race 2.0 sparks rapid capabilities develop-
OF PLAY
ment. Past rivalries yielded innovations in integrated circuits, memory foam, solar technologies,
and more. New friction may now drive the next wave of space-enabled advances. This contem-
porary competition, however, is not just a replay of past dynamics. It brings into play a broader
constellation of actors, including smaller nations and private enterprises, all enabled by the
decreasing cost of space access. As space access becomes cheaper, more countries can realisti-
cally launch their own missions. India and Japan recently landed lunar rovers, joining an exclu-
sive club. With more diverse space blocs taking shape, we may see new models of collaboration
between secondary space powers.
The space economy is a series Parallel to the geopolitical shifts is a burgeoning commercial space ecosystem now feasible
of contradictions. given reduced launch costs. Microgravity research and development, space tourism, and asteroid
mining represent trillion-dollar opportunities. As these space industries mature, we can expect
related economic and technological ripple effects.
The enduring debate over humanity’s future direction—whether to prioritize our ventures into
space or focus on Earth’s pressing needs—continues. Billionaire explorers like Jeff Bezos and
Elon Musk champion the cause of space exploration, not merely as a pursuit of curiosity but as a
necessary step for human survival. They argue for the establishment of human presence beyond
Earth, envisioning space as a sanctuary that could ensure humanity’s continuity against exis-
tential threats. As Carl Sagan observed, “Since, in the long run, every planetary civilization will be
endangered by impacts from space, every surviving civilization is obliged to become spacefar-
ing—not because of exploratory or romantic zeal, but for the most practical reason imaginable:
staying alive.” Sagan’s words remind us that the journey to space transcends mere adventure or
ambition. Investing in space exploration and planetary science is not just about the pursuit of
knowledge or the expansion of human presence into the cosmos; it’s a critical step in ensuring
the long-term sustainability and survival of humanity.

INDUSTRY SPACE
KEY EVENTS
APRIL 14, 2023 JUNE 28, 2023 AUGUST 2023
Mission Sets Off to Probe Jupiter’s Icy Moons Universe Permeated with Gravitational Waves Lunar Highs and Lows
Europe’s JUICE spacecraft begins its eight-year New measurements reveal a cosmic background hum of India’s Chandrayaan-3 lands
odyssey to Jupiter, targeting moons like Europa low-frequency gravitational waves, confirming Einstein’s on the moon’s south pole as
in the quest for extraterrestrial life clues. century-old prediction and expanding our understanding Russia’s Luna 25 crashes.
of the universe’s fabric.
M AY 1 , 2 0 2 3 J U N E 2 9, 2 0 2 3
James Webb detects water vapor Virgin Galactic launches

JWST discovers water vapor on an Virgin Galactic successfully launches Ga-
exoplanet 26 light-years away from Earth. lactic 01, its first commercial space flight.

INDUSTRY SPACE

UNLOCKING POTENTIAL IN SPACE Space Manufacturing Takes Off Asteroid Mining Viability ISRU on the Moon
When it comes to space explora- With significant interest from government or- Asteroid mining in and of itself will not be a As a demonstration of oxygen production on
tion, there are never any guarantees. ganizations such as NASA, combined with the near term development. However, we should Mars by NASA’s MOXIE has shown, in-situ
Missions are often delayed, and the engineering know-how of startups like Red- know more about its viability as startups like resource utilization (ISRU) is crucial for space
complex nature of space travel of- wire and Varda, the industry will soon know AstroForge have reestablished their interest exploration. In due time, a demonstration of
the viability of manufacturing in space and in the activity and have insightful missions oxygen or water production will take place on
ten results in the failed execution of the true benefits of working in microgravity. planned. the moon.
even properly laid plans. A wave of
transformative developments will
make our space-based futures look Humans on the Moon New Discoveries by the JWST Affordable re-entry
brighter, however. Based on near term
NASA’s Artemis program has its sights on Since its successful deployment in space, the Expect a rise in companies focused on
developments and milestones, we will sending humans back to the moon and plans James Webb Space Telescope has continued cost-effective return vehicles and methods
have more certainty on the viability of to do so by 2025. This along with the recent to uncover new revelations and inspiration. to retrieve goods manufactured in space. If
certain technologies such as asteroid flurry of lunar activity, including India’s The JWST will continue to discover more viable, this point-to-point space delivery and
unmanned Chandrayaan-3 landing, expect about space, potentially giving us new clues off-Earth industry promises immense expan-
mining, in-situ resource utilization,
humans to be there again soon. about our origins. sion for commercial interests.
and space-based manufacturing. We
will achieve new breakthroughs, plac-
ing humans in new environments. Ad- 11 MACRO SOURCES OF DISRUPTION
ditionally, we will unlock new myster-
ies and potentially learn more about
our origins.

INDUSTRY SPACE
WHY SPACE TRENDS MATTER TO YOUR ORGANIZATION
Support for disaster More resilient Spillover technologies Capitalize on the Responsible orbital Existential threats
preparedness and and revolutionary are there for the interests of the activity impacts create business
management supply chains taking public sector everyone opportunities
Space-based technologies Space can impact Technology used in the The new space race shows At first, our crowded and There is an enormous
play a critical role across supply chains in two Hubble Telescope has no signs of slowing increasingly unsafe orbits economic opportunity
the entire disaster fundamental, yet improved technology down. Governments could seem to just be a to clean up Earth’s orbit.
management cycle. This dramatically different, for cancer detection in will continue to invest threat to organizations Unfortunately, we are
includes prevention, ways. First, satellites used women. Eye doctors are more of their budgets operating in the space the culprits responsible
preparedness, early for Earth observation can now using technology in the space industry to economy. However, this is for creating this mess.
warnings, response plans, help pinpoint the location from the James Webb maintain competitive a risk for everyone, as so Our space junk dilemma
and reconstruction. of goods throughout Space Telescope to advantages. There could much of our connectivity mirrors our current
Predictive modeling supply chains, and help by help improve human be opportunities to win and navigation systems climate crisis. The
can warn of potential proactively protecting key eyesight. Other spillover government contracts rely on space. Advocating stability of safe space
threats, and provide parts. Also, in the future, technologies from that aren’t necessarily for responsible orbital travel is decreasing,
information that’s critical a company’s supply chain space exploration could grandiose in nature—such activity should be and we must rely on the
for assessing risks of could extend to space, as already exist and provide as new applications for something we all invest market to reverse this
entering new markets or space factories become innovations for other project management, in. trend.
providing new services. more viable. adjacent industries. not just engineering new
rockets.

INDUSTRY SPACE
As long as regulations remain outdated, there’s a risk of countries operating As more people and things travel to space, there’s a heightened need for
kinetic-based anti-satellite weapons. These should be a worry for not just insurance packages. These could cover the traveling individuals, their
governments but companies whose satellites could get caught in the crossfire. possessions, or the satellites in orbit.
As ground-based lasers become more sophisticated, there is an increased risk Counterintuitively, existential threats in space are leading to business
of being on the receiving end of a cyberattack. These nonphysical attacks can opportunities. The industry for deorbiting space junk and reservicing satellites
use lasers to jam or even blind satellites. will remain a growth market for the foreseeable future.
With the tense geopolitical environment of space, it could be easy for a country As SpaceX gets closer to reaching the limit of meaningful cost improvements
or competing business to mistake a mishap in space as a purposeful attack for sending rockets to space, a new player could enter the satellite ride-sharing
against them. Some groups might be quick to retaliate. domain and gain some market share.
Space debris poses the most significant space-related threat. In the event of As sending payloads to space becomes more affordable, new business models
the Kessler Syndrome, not only would satellites be destroyed but we would not have formed, and other alternative business models are yet to be discovered.
be able to leave Earth, preventing us from being a multi-planetary species.
As space tourism unfolds, first-mover advantages open up for companies that
The democratization of space poses the threat to traditional players of not only offer entertainment services to guests. This will be a very niche market and might
smaller and more nimble businesses but also less space-established nations. only benefit actual first movers.
This could upend incumbents’ resourcefulness in the face of constraints.

INDUSTRY SPACE
1 2 3 4 5 6
Earth observation technol- The space economy will New pharmaceutical reg- In space, gravity is not a Mining will be essential for As the industry of preci-
ogy will continue to im- contribute to the burgeon- imens will be needed for constraint like it is on Earth. future space missions and sion agriculture grows, in-
prove and reveal new types ing biomedical revolution. individuals spending pro- As space factories and a worthwhile investment vesting during its infancy
of data from advanced To ensure that our bodies longed periods in space, manufacturing become consideration. While many could pay off greatly. As
instruments. As machine are conditioned and opti- upending the pharmaceu- more viable, businesses associate space mining it becomes more widely
learning and artificial mized for space, research- tical industry. The envi- should explore products with asteroids, whose adopted, more companies
intelligence also improve, ers are exploring ways ronment of space will also that would benefit most possibility is further in the will follow John Deere’s
companies can make the to edit humans’ biology. transform the manufactur- from these micro- and future, the prospect of min- lead and partner and
most of these data sets by Research breakthroughs ing process for drugs. This zero- gravity environments. ing services on the moon collaborate with space-
uncovering new insights for will optimize the human presents a domain outside Taking inventory of such looms much sooner. Mining based organizations that
urban planning, insurance, body for space travel and of the space economy products today will enable will be imperative for all specialize in navigation
disaster preparedness, improve human experi- where investments ulti- quick action in the future. aspects of space travel and systems.
and agriculture for urban ence on Earth. Research mately will impact space. colonization.
planning, insurance, di- breakthroughs will optimize
saster preparedness, and the human body for space
agriculture. travel and improve human
experience on Earth.

INDUSTRY SPACE
CENTRAL THEMES
Space Is Essential for Earth Microgravity’s Macro Potential Optimized Resource Utilization
Critics say we should protect our interests on Earth Microgravity creates an environment for research im- While space exploration is a noble and commendable
before entertaining the idea of exploring other worlds. possible on Earth, potentially leading to breakthroughs endeavor, it comes with many perils. For one, getting to
However, this is not a zero-sum game. In fact, the and new inventions. Drug companies and materials space is challenging and costly. Once there, the condi-
benefits of space exploration and research manifest scientists see huge potential in conducting experi- tions are unforgiving and not very favorable for human
here, too. Much of our communication and navigation ments aboard orbiting laboratories. Without gravity, life. With all this in mind, space becomes the epitome
systems and architectures are made possible because they can develop new kinds of pharmaceuticals and of human resourcefulness and ingenuity, and these
of satellites and their constellations out in space. advanced materials not possible on Earth. These characteristics are absolutely essential for achieving
Earth observation services are providing us with a level breakthroughs might transform medicine, telecommu- success beyond our planet. Space exploration is es-
of data we could not achieve on the ground—data that nications, electronics, and more. Many companies are sentially a closed system: all resources within it are
will prove invaluable as we navigate uncertain climate already starting small-scale production of space-made valuable and their use must be optimized. This mani-
futures. Many of the technologies essential for space materials. As launch costs continue to decline, space fests itself in a number of technologies or theoretical
travel also have spillover effects, and will serve ex- research is poised to skyrocket. We expect a flood of ex- solutions including reusable rockets, In-Situ Resource
tremely useful purposes to our everyday lives. periments as access expands. But what goes up must Utilization, additive manufacturing that takes advan-
come down. Secure transportation methods will be tage of zero- and microgravity environments, resourc-
needed to return these precious space-produced goods es for mining and harnessing materials for building
to Earth. Solving this challenge will help commercialize habitats and spacecrafts, water for jet fuels and radi-
outer space and unlock profits from zero gravity. ation protection, and oxygen for supporting life. These
optimized processes and technology engender compo-
nents necessary to ensure continued vitality.

INDUSTRY SPACE
CENTRAL THEMES
Democratizing Space Collaboration Is Key But Murky
Entering the space industry can be daunting. Creating Throughout the history of space exploration, collabo-
the systems and technology required for space travel rations have made impressive feats possible. Private
and exploration requires sophisticated engineering companies might collaborate to create innovative
and a comprehensive understanding of math and technologies, or work with public-facing institutions
science. Despite the barriers, space is continuing to that seek their ingenuity and scrappiness. For nations,
become more accessible for unexpected countries the matter is more complicated despite instances of
launching space programs, fledgling startups raising countries with shared interests accomplishing shared
capital to enter the race, and universities and academ- objectives in space. Sometimes, space collaboration
ic programs with no previous experience. Today, you lags behind the geopolitical situations on Earth. For
don’t have to create technologies or engineer complex now, Russia is still a member of the International
solutions to enter the space economy. Turnkey satellite Space Station. But the country’s actions on Earth could
solutions and satellite-as-a-service business models eventually put a strain on its space activities. Then
allow small companies, developing countries, or in- there’s the US and China: If space collaboration could
dividuals the chance to live out their space interests. ever be possible for the two countries frequently at
Additionally, the increase in private missions and com- odds, this would reap immeasurable benefits for space
mercial flights to space is encouraging for the democ- exploration. However, China seems to be focusing on
ratization of space. In time, these options will become expanding its own space station, by doubling the size,
available to a broader audience. as an alternative to the NASA-led ISS, indicating lim-
ited interest in increasing cooperation. As the race to
space intensifies, the line between collaboration and
competition becomes increasingly blurred, reflecting
the intricate dance of diplomacy and strategic inter-
ests in the final frontier.

INDUSTRY SPACE
ONES TO WATCH
Dr. Amy Williams, astrobiologist at the Uni- Sara Seager, physics professor at MIT, for her Dr. Alexandra Navrotsky, director at Arizona Rayyanah Barnawi, mission specialist on
versity of Florida, for her insights into Mars’ research on exoplanet atmospheres, interiors, State University’s Center for Materials of the the Ax-2 mission, for becoming Saudi Ara-
history and potential for supporting life. and signs of life by way of exoplanet atmo- Universe, for her contributions to thermody- bia’s first female astronaut in space.
spheric biosignature gases. namics and materials science.
Dr. Christopher Mason, professor of ge- Dr. Lisa Carnell, program scientist for
nomics, physiology, and biophysics at Weill S. Somanath, chairman of the Indian Space Martin Nisser, Ph.D. candidate in the HCI En- Translational Research in NASA’s Biological
Cornell Medicine, for his book “The Next 500 Research Organisation, for his leadership gineering Group at the MIT Computer Science and Physical Sciences Division, for her work
Years” and his work on bioengineering hu- and expertise in guiding the Chandrayaan-3 and Artificial Intelligence Laboratory, for his related to 3D tissues and microphysiological
mans for space. mission. research in reconfigurable robots. systems.
Jane Greaves, professor at Cardiff Universi- Dr. Jane Rigby, astrophysicist at NASA’s Gui Haichao, professor at the School of Dr. Stafford Sheehan, co-founder and CTO of
ty, for her discovery of phosphine, a potential Goddard Space Flight Center, for being named Astronautics, for becoming the first Chinese Air Co., for his research developing a kero-
biomarker, in the clouds of Venus. the new senior project scientist for the James civilian to fly in space. sene-based rocket fuel.
Webb Space Telescope mission.
Ivo Labbé, research professor at Swinburne Jared Isaacman, CEO of Shift4 Payments, for Matt Gialich, CEO of AstroForge, for his com-
University of Technology, for his Nature pub- Dr. Ariel Ekblaw, founder of the MIT Space his commitment to private space missions mitment to exploring the viability of mining
lication on the six massive galaxies discov- Exploration Initiative, for leading a portfolio of through the Polaris program. asteroids.
ered in the early universe. more than 40 research projects focusing on
future life in space. Bill Diamond, president and CEO of the SETI Dr. William Blackwell, laboratory fellow in
Dr. Robin Hanson, economist at George Institute, for his leadership in the continual the Applied Space Systems Group at MIT Lin-
Mason University and research associate at Dr. Nathan Lundblad, physics professor at search for extraterrestrial intelligence. coln Laboratory, for his leadership of NASA’s
Oxford University’s Future of Humanity Insti- Bates College, for his research aboard the Cold TROPICS project.
tute, for his theories on the “Great Filter” and Atom Lab on the International Space Station. Yuri Milner, Israeli entrepreneur, investor,
“Grabby Aliens.” physicist, and scientist, for his contribu-
Dr. Sarah Burke-Spolaor, associate professor tions to the Breakthrough Listen project and
Delian Asparouhov, co-founder of Varda, for of astronomy at West Virginia University, for search for alien life.
his work to create a platform for in-space proving the existence of low-frequency gravi-
manufacturing, especially related to the tational waves in space. Dr. Catriona Jamieson, director of the
development of in-space pharmaceutical Sanford Stem Cell Institute at the University
production. of California, San Diego, for overseeing stem
cell research in space.

INDUSTRY SPACE
IMPORTANT TERMS
CubeSats In-situ resource utilization Medium-Earth orbit (MEO) Suborbital spaceflight
This small, square-shaped satellite measures The extraction, processing, and use of resources A geocentric orbit extending from approximately This occurs when a spacecraft travels to space but
10-by-10-by-10 centimeters, and typically weighs found on other celestial bodies like the moon or 2,000 kilometers (1,243 miles) to 36,000 kilometers does not achieve an altitude and velocity resulting
around 1 kilogram. CubeSats can be utilized indi- Mars. (23,000 miles) above the Earth’s surface. Satellites in a ballistic trajectory circling the Earth at least
vidually as single units or in a constellation. They positioned within MEO face an increased suscep- once.
have a wide range of applications, including testing The Kármán line tibility to potential damage as they are exposed to
instruments, conducting scientific experiments, Established by the international record-keeping intense solar radiation. This orbital region hosts a
facilitating commercial endeavors, and supporting organization World Air Sports Federation, this de- variety of satellites, including global positioning
educational initiatives. marcation point distinguishes Earth’s atmosphere systems and communications satellites. Satellites
from outer space. It is defined to be at an altitude of situated in MEO typically complete an orbit around
The Drake Equation 100 kilometers above the mean sea level. the Earth in approximately two hours.
This probabilistic argument is used to estimate the
quantity of active and communicative extraterres- Kessler Syndrome On-orbit satellite servicing
trial civilizations within the Milky Way galaxy. This concept, introduced by NASA scientist Donald The process of refueling, repairing, or maintaining
J. Kessler in 1978, envisions a situation in low Earth space satellites while they are in orbit.
Fermi Paradox orbit where there are so many objects from space
The confounding situation of lacking definitive pollution that collisions between them trigger a Orbital space flight
proof for advanced extraterrestrial life, despite the chain reaction. Each collision generates more space When a spacecraft reaches a trajectory where it can
seemingly strong probability of its existence. debris, raising the risk of additional collisions. remain in space for at least one orbit.
Great filter Low Earth orbit (LEO) Space junk

The term introduced by economist Robin Hanson A geocentric orbit spanning from approximately 160 Defunct satellites and other man-made debris in
suggests that, regardless of the widespread emer- kilometers (100 miles) to 2,000 kilometers (1,240 orbit around the Earth.
gence of life within our galaxy, every extraterrestrial miles) above the Earth’s surface. This is typically
civilization inevitably encounters an obstacle that where human-crewed artificial satellites operate,
threatens its own continued existence. where their orbital path completes roughly every 90
minutes.

INDUSTRY SPACE
SPACE
POLITICS

INDUSTRY SPACE
GEOPOLITICAL The International Space Station once personified nation-to-nation

cooperation, but that came into question in 2022 when Russia
Traditionally, collaborative space projects have not always been
a clear indicator of geopolitical relations on Earth. But now, it’s
TENSIONS IN SPACE
announced it would abandon the ISS by 2024. Since then, Rus- becoming even more challenging to disentangle countries’ rela-
sia softened this declaration and said it will support the station tions in space with what’s happening on our home planet. Over the
through 2028, but the country will likely still abandon its com- years, space pursuits by various countries have mostly had pos-
mitment in the future. As the war in Ukraine continues, space itive implications for research and technology development, but
represents a rare avenue where Russia and Western nations still fear persists that space could be used by various world powers for
cooperate and collaborate; however, these relations are tenuous at military purposes. Recently, China accused the US of accelerating
best. the militarization of space. Conversely, the US is wary of potential
WHAT IT IS
Chinese electronic warfare technology that could potentially deny
In space, a shifting geopolitical landscape is unfolding. In August US space-based communications. Whether or not there is merit to
Geopolitical tensions on Earth 2023, Russia’s Luna-25 spacecraft crashed into the surface of the either country’s claims, the threat of a new cold war taking place
moon’s south pole, just a few days before India’s Chandrayaan-3 in space is becoming more pronounced. While it could prove to
are spilling over into space-based became the first mission to successfully land a craft there. While be foolish to actually use space-based technologies to wage war
Russia and India have been partners on Earth, India’s display of
relations among various nations strength could come at the embarrassment of Russia. In isolation,
on other nations, different countries could still engage in an arms
race to preemptively render their opponents defenseless, mirror-
and complicating aspirations India’s achievement is significant for solidifying its position in a
new space race as various groups rush to the moon to take advan-
ing the dynamics of the previous Cold War. This ongoing threat
highlights the pressing need for unified and binding international
to explore beyond our globe. tage of its resources. commitments to ensure the safe, peaceful, and equitable use of
Conversely, as space becomes Other notable groups vying for access to lunar resources are the
space.
US and China, which have had a colorful past when it comes to

more active, the events taking geopolitics on Earth and in space. To further complicate matters,
place there will undoubtedly both countries have essentially declared space to be a military
domain, leaving little hope that the two nations will cooperate on
impact relations here. future related space endeavors.

INDUSTRY SPACE
EMERGING In May 2023, two astronauts became the first Saudi Arabians to
visit the International Space Station. This crew included Rayyanah
Of the over 70 documented space agencies, as of 2024, 16 possess
the ability to launch, while only seven exhibit complete launch
SPACE-FARING
Barnawi, who became the first Saudi woman in space. The Axiom capabilities—meaning they can launch and also recover satellites
Space’s Ax-2 mission signifies the increasing influence that Gulf and operate extraterrestrial landing capabilities. South Korea is
nations are having on the space economy. Prior to this milestone, the most recent country to join this exclusive list but Scotland
COUNTRIES another Gulf nation had already left its mark in space: The United
Arab Emirates has sent its own astronauts to space, launched
could also join soon, as construction of Sutherland Spaceport is
underway on its north coast. The only continent lacking launch ca-
spacecraft to both Mars and the moon, and deployed satellites. As pabilities is Africa, but even this could change soon, as plans exist
for future missions, in 2028, the UAE plans to send a spacecraft to build a spaceport in Djibouti over the next five years with $1 bil-
WHAT IT IS
to our solar system’s asteroid belt to study seven asteroids with lion invested by Chinese company Hong Kong Aerospace Technolo-
the intent of learning more about our origins on Earth. Looking gy. This operation, along with existing space projects, could propel
Multiple factors, such as reduced beyond Gulf countries, other new faces are entering the mix. In the African space industry to a value of $23 billion by 2026. There
mid-2023, South Korea’s Nuri Rocket completed its third launch, is significant economic incentive for new space-faring countries,
payload costs, advances in but for the first time carried commercial payloads into space. and as prospects of sending payloads to space become more ac-
launch technology, and overall Scientists from the Indian Space Research Organisation launched
next-generation navigation satellite NVS-01, adding to India’s fleet
cessible and less costly, it should come as no surprise to see this
trend continue. By expanding their presence in space, these coun-
lowered barriers to entry, are of navigation spacecraft and providing interoperability with other tries will increase their autonomy, allowing them to stand up for
countries’ global networks. Recognizing the heightened geopolit- themselves and their own interests—whether they want increased
making the prospect of space ical risks surrounding space, New Zealand has developed its own monitoring for agriculture programs or more control over telecom-
exploration more accessible to space policy, including objectives for growing an innovative and
inclusive space sector centered around promoting and protecting
munications systems.
new figures in the public sector. its national security and economic interests. The policy serves as
an important landmark in New Zealand becoming a space-faring
nation.

INDUSTRY SPACE
GOVERNING In 2022, the United States banned direct-ascent anti-satellite

(ASAT) missile tests, which can potentially create orbital de-
Individual nations, including the United States, have enacted their
own resolutions to address activity in space, but such resolutions
SPACE
bris—an action intended to create an international push for more primarily serve the interests of the nation that proposed them and
responsible space behavior. At the end of that year, the United are only binding for the signing countries. Subsequently, this gives
Nations General Assembly overwhelmingly approved a resolution privileges to non-signing parties. The current actions of the United
to suspend ASAT testing. Despite the nonbinding resolution’s Nations are promising, as they move to implement a set of unified
immense support, only 13 nations have committed to its precepts. norms for space travel and use, but because some of the norms
More countries are actively being encouraged to also commit. will still be nonbinding, obstinate countries could continue to
make things complicated.
WHAT IT IS When it comes to governing space, many existing initiatives—
such as the one mentioned above—are driven by nations’ indepen- Organizations such as the UN pursuing safer guidelines for space
Both governments and dent interests and concerns. Currently, there is no agreed upon travel need to strike the appropriate balance between properly
international framework for space resource exploration, exploita- regulating activities and spurring innovation. As space explora-
intergovernmental organizations tion, and utilization—as noted by the UN brief “For All Humani- tion remains unchecked, there is the increasing threat of debris
ty—The Future of Outer Space Governance”—and no mechanism or a geopolitical quagmire among competing nations. However, a
are advocating for responsible to even support the implementation of such a framework. The UN hasty implementation of strict and stringent rules could drasti-
space behaviors to avoid a major hopes that the dialogue and activity surrounding its brief will lead
to the development of international norms, rules, and principles
cally hamper the progress of bold and daring endeavors to access
more of space. Both private and public organizations must prepare
catastrophe in space. As the space to address threats to space and its associated programs and sys- for a more regulated industry while also ensuring that the spirit of
tems. A combination of binding and nonbinding norms have also exploration and discovery that drives humanity’s fascination with
industry becomes more lucrative been proposed to address emerging risks to outer space security, space is not extinguished.
and enticing, new guidelines safety, and sustainability.
are needed to ensure safe and

equitable exploration, exploitation,
and utilization of space and its
resources.

INDUSTRY SPACE
SPACE DEFENSE President Joe Biden’s 2024 budget request increases funding for
the US Space Force to $30 billion to meet evolving threats and
As space presents itself as a new Wild West, it will continue to
be perceived as a risk to national security, whether those threats
protect the country’s interests in space. The institution has cited come from rising geopolitical tensions and conflicts on our home
the importance of space to everyday life, including GPS navigation planet, or from the impending threat of celestial objects that we
and communications. Ultimately, this budget increase marks the have even less control over.
US’ attempt to keep pace with other countries, namely Russia and
China. The US has identified the latter’s ground-based lasers as a When it comes to national defense, space has become critical for
threat to satellites and plans to transition to proliferated networks myriad reasons. So many space systems have become necessary
of smaller satellites in Earth’s orbit to combat the issue. The Space components of our daily lives. Simple miscommunication among
WHAT IT IS Force has also opened the Commercial Space Marketplace for disparate nations can have outsized impacts, potentially leading
Innovation and Collaboration to partner with the private sector in to the destruction of important communication devices. More
Nations around the globe have acquiring defense technology. overtly nefarious threats exist as evidenced by Russia’s cyberat-
tack in February 2022 that left Viasat’s KA-SAT modems inoperable
a vested interest in protecting In a historic first, Israel’s Arrow 2 missile defense system intercept- in Ukraine. This incident led to other next order impacts, resulting
ed and neutralized a ballistic missile beyond the Earth’s atmo- in the malfunction of 5,800 Enercon wind turbines in Germany and
themselves from space-related sphere, marking a potential inaugural instance of space-based other major disruptions to major European organizations. The US
combat. The system obliterated a suborbital missile launched by
activities. As space systems Houthi rebels in Yemen, achieving interception above the Kármán
Defense Department has vowed to openly communicate US mili-
tary space activities in an effort to prevent misunderstandings and
become more prevalent, countries line—the internationally acknowledged space boundary situated 62
miles above sea level. This demonstration indicates that conflicts
miscalculations. However, China’s decision to not be as transpar-
ent complicates matters. Without unified standards and norms,
will naturally become more on Earth may begin to extend beyond our atmosphere as well.
we are just a minor mishap away from nations taking retaliatory
suspicious of other competing Aside from space defense against other countries, planetary de- measures on perceived space-based threats.
fense involves initiatives to monitor and protect Earth from aster-
nations, heightening the risk of oids and other objects that could threaten our planet. Even though
space-based turmoil. NASA’s Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) happened almost
two years ago, we are still learning more about this mission. DART’s
successful impact with the asteroid Dimorphos altered the aster-
oid’s orbit but led to the creation of a crater that flung debris from
the asteroid. ESA’s Hera mission, launching in October 2024, aims
to study the Didymos binary asteroid and assess DART’s impact,
providing key insights for future asteroid deflection strategies.

INDUSTRY SPACE
SCENARIOS
SCENARIO YEAR 2043
Tax Tensions on Mars

The Colonized Habitat Optimization and Mining Co. (CHOAM), operating primarily on Mars and its surrounding
Lagrange Orbit Equilibrium stations, mined Martian water ice to support other Mars-based ventures, scientific
explorations, and low orbit Earth habitats. Initially incorporated as a Delaware C corp, CHOAM contemplated a
paradigm shift in its corporate structure amid the complex milieu of US corporate tax policy. Attracted by the
increasingly business-friendly climate of Singapore, and its progressive stance toward space commerce, CHOAM
considered reincorporation. Singapore’s introduction of tailored tax incentives for space-faring entities promised
an advantageous arena compared to the US jurisdiction.
However, CHOAM’s interplanetary ambitions are being tethered by the restrictions of US export controls. Navigat-
ing through the maze of the International Traffic in Arms Regulations (ITAR) and the Export Administration Regu-
lations (EAR) was no minor feat. To circumvent the challenges of US export controls, CHOAM is ramping up in-situ
inputs: By leveraging Martian regolith and other locally sourced materials, the company is extensively employing
advanced 3D printing technologies to fabricate tools, infrastructure, and essential operational components. This
drastic reduction in its Earth-based dependencies skirts many export control complications. CHOAM’s strategic
move to Singapore didn’t go unnoticed. Other extraterrestrial corporations, grappling with the intricacies of off-
world operations under their respective Earth jurisdictions, have begun evaluating potential reincorporation in
tax-favorable countries.

INDUSTRY SPACE
DOMESTIC In 2023, Texas Gov. Greg Abott signed HB3447 into law, establish-
ing the Texas Space Commission. This group will allocate $350
In January 2023, Space Florida, the state’s aerospace economic
development agency, announced that the total economic impact of
COMPETITION
million to develop the space industry in the Lone Star State, and its aerospace finance and development authority had reached $5.9
will oversee planning, funding distribution, research, and educa- billion since 2007. It expects the industry will have an addition-
tion efforts in the Texas space industry. In a similar vein, Florida al $5.3 billion economic impact over the next five years, with an
Gov. Ron DeSantis signed a bill into law aimed at reducing liability average annual impact of $1.1 billion. Ultimately, Florida recognizes
for commercial spaceflight companies, with an ultimate goal of the tremendous economic impact of the space economy and is
attracting more launch providers to Florida’s Space Coast. Under doing everything in its power to entice more organizations to move
the law’s provisions, companies will be granted immunity from lia- or establish operations in the state. The space industry’s potential
WHAT IT IS
bility associated with flight-related injuries or deaths, as long as economic impact on local economies is the central driver for the
crew members sign a waiver. Other states have shown they want Texas Legislature’s committing $350 million to fund and support
Having recognized the economic a foothold in the space industry. President Joe Biden’s decision to Texas aerospace and space projects and new economic incentives
leave the US Space Command headquarters in Colorado evoked ire to draw space companies and space startups to the state. The
impact the new space economy from Alabama officials. It was a reversal of a Trump administration reaction from the political leaders of Alabama is understandable
will have on local economies, decision to relocate the headquarters to Alabama. State officials
claim abortion politics played a role in the change, as Alabama
considering the US Space Command represents the significance,
influence, and status of the space industry. The activities of these
select US states and markets are Republican Sen. Tommy Tuberville had been blocking military pro- states underscore one thing: Whoever dominates the space race
motions over the Pentagon’s abortion policies. will dominate here on Earth.
trying to establish themselves
as major hubs for domestic
operations. Through economic
incentives and relaxed
regulations, these states will
attempt to edge out others to
gain a competitive advantage.

INDUSTRY SPACE
SPACE BLOCS Many consider the European Space Agency—now consisting of 22

nations—to be the first space bloc. One of the newer collaborative
Proponents of the Artemis Accords contend that the major tenets
act as an extension of the 1967 Outer Space Treaty, to set principles
blocs is the African Space Agency, which officially formed in Janu- for a safe, peaceful, and prosperous future in space. While a series
ary 2023. Despite this union, Russia has tried to entice Algeria and of protocols to ensure this type of future is necessary, some have
Egypt to join its space program. The Latin American and Caribbean a complicated view of the Accords for a few key reasons. Notably,
Space Agency now consists of 23 member states, and while no the 1967 Outer Space Treaty is seen as insufficient for governing
formal agreements have been brokered, China has expressed open current space endeavors, and the industry in general could benefit
support of the organization. Perhaps the most prominent collabo- from a new, refreshed set of regulations to moderate activity in
rative bloc is the Artemis Accords, drafted by NASA and the US De- space. The treaty also asserts that “outer space is not subject to
WHAT IT IS
partment of State. This nonbinding multilateral arrangement with national appropriation by claim of sovereignty.” Forming space
other world governments attempts to establish common princi- blocs could be seen as a strategy for skirting this major tenet:
Despite competition arising from ples, guidelines, and best practices for the safe exploration of the While not claiming sovereignty of the moon or other celestial bod-
moon and beyond. NASA’s adjacent Artemis program will require ies, these blocs may make the case that their visits to and settle-
the quest to travel to space, significant partnerships with countries and private companies ment of the moon are not acts of individual state sovereignty, and
there’s also been extensive to ensure it sends astronauts back to the moon. In 2023, India,
Ecuador, Argentina, and the Czech Republic became the most re-
thereby not in violation of the treaty.
collaboration. Since the Cold cent countries to sign the Artemis Accords, marking a significant Opponents of the Accords contend that they are too centered on
American and commercial interests, leading countries such as
uptick in space collaboration with the US.
War’s end, nations have been Russia and China to not sign the agreement. Both countries have
their own individual and sometimes joint efforts to establish a
forming space blocs—groups of presence on the moon, and continually seek collaboration with
countries joining forces to further new countries and agencies, fully understanding this mode of op-
eration is necessary to be the leader of the modern space race.
their collective interests in space.

INDUSTRY SPACE
GEOPOLITICAL About 100 trillion fragments of defunct satellites and spent rock-
ets orbit the Earth. While some of these fragments are monitored,
The escalation of space debris is both a technical challenge and a
complex geopolitical issue. Nations possessing advanced space
TENSIONS OVER
others are too minuscule to be tracked, presenting a considerable capabilities heavily depend on satellites for core national security
danger. Potential collisions between them can create even more functions, like surveillance, communication, and navigation. But
fragments. In a phenomenon known as the Kessler Syndrome, satellites extend beyond military applications; from guiding us
SPACE JUNK these collisions can create a cascading effect, where debris begets
more debris in a runaway cycle.
to our destinations through Google Maps to facilitating real-time
financial transactions, commercial satellites are integral to our
modern existence. Space debris, consequently, doesn’t merely
The severity of space debris was highlighted in January 2023, jeopardize national security—it also threatens economic stability
WHAT IT IS when an old Soviet-era rocket nearly collided with defunct satellite and daily lives.
debris, a potential worst-case scenario that could have resulted
Space junk refers to the tens of in thousands of new pieces of debris. The threat is further com- The problem exacerbates if debris from one nation damages
plicated by irresponsible actions including the deployment of another’s satellite, invoking questions of accountability and lia-
thousands of defunct human- anti-satellite devices. In November 2021, the Russian Ministry bility. While international space law offers a legal framework, its
of Defense launched an anti-satellite (ASAT) missile, creating a application can be ambiguous, potentially sparking international
made objects in space, including cloud of debris that threatened the International Space Station. conflicts. Like the high seas, space is considered outside the juris-
old rocket parts, dead satellites, Following the incident, the UN approved a resolution against ASAT
tests. Meanwhile, tensions continue to brew around North Korea’s
diction of any one nation, leading to a “tragedy of the commons”
scenario. Citing the mismanagement of the oceans as a cautionary
and debris from collisions—both satellite capabilities, leading South Korea and the US to agree on a tale in the journal Science, a group of scientists recently urged
joint probe into North Korean space rocket debris. In May 2023, the regulators to avoid repeating past mistakes when establishing
accidental and intentional. As G7 nations deemed the issue of space debris an “urgent problem” governance for space.
more nations operate in space, that must be addressed collectively, including research in both
orbital debris mitigation and remediation technologies.
managing this issue involves
addressing concerns of national
security, weaponization, and
liability.

INDUSTRY SPACE
SCENARIOS
SCENARIO YEAR 2031
Interplanetary Park System

After more nations started sending spacecraft to land on the moon’s south pole through the end of the 2020s,
the United Nations finally decided to step in with more stringent and binding resolutions to regulate space
travel. The international body had to be done right or risk both private and public operations wrecking the en-
tire space environment. The urgency to put a temporary reprieve on commercial operations on the lunar surface
was precipitated when a US-based company’s testing equipment interfered with a Japanese rover, which almost
sparked an international lunar incident. With commercial operations indefinitely suspended, various organiza-
tions were left hanging in the balance as their moon-based initiatives lay fallow.
In a ruse to keep valuable experimentation and lunar-based research moving forward, the US is volunteering its
Artemis Program to launch the Interplanetary Park System in an effort to ensure the heritage of space can “be
enjoyed today and preserved for tomorrow.” Under the proposal, the IPS, through the collaboration of Artemis
countries, now numbering 38, will continue its in-situ resource extraction and utilization and other experimental
manufacturing methods, but all collected resources will be used for the infrastructure needed to establish mon-
uments and the necessary built environment for IPS programming. Artemis and the IPS pledge to make space
accessible to all global citizens of Earth. After establishing the infrastructure that would least invasively allow
individuals to visit historical and significant sites on the moon, the IPS plans to explore other potential locations
in our solar system to establish additional sites of interest, using lunar resources for fuels and building materi-
als needed for such an initiative.

INDUSTRY SPACE
SPACE
INDUSTRY

INDUSTRY SPACE
SPACE Space-based manufacturing harbors immense potential due

to the unique conditions inherently present there. For instance,
Space-based manufacturing has the potential to overcome the
constraints of gravity and optimize production in ways not possi-
FACTORIES
semiconductor manufacturing necessitates an extremely clean, ble on Earth. By making goods like semiconductors, organoids, and
low-pressure environment to avoid contamination. Naturally, the metal alloys in the microgravity of space, we can customize the
vacuum of space offers these conditions, a fact being capitalized manufacturing environment free from gravity’s limitations. As cli-
on by companies like Space Forge, which intends to manufacture mate change disrupts supply chains on Earth, off-planet produc-
semiconductors in space. Researchers at MIT have utilized LEO’s tion offers a resilient backup option, diversifying sources beyond
microgravity to produce intricate “skins” for additive manufactur- our planet. In-space manufacturing may prove a strategic solution
ing. Other efforts include Apsidal’s module to manufacture com- for enhancing supply chain resilience as accelerating climate im-
WHAT IT IS
plex glasses and fibers in space, and Varda’s successful launch of pacts threaten production on Earth.
the first space factory on SpaceX’s Falcon 9 to produce pharma-
Low earth orbit (LEO) may be a ceuticals (discussed in more detail under “Biomanufacturing in Space factories also play a pivotal role in enabling a sustainable
Space”). long-term human presence in space. They not only reduce our de-
more suitable environment for pendence on Earth but also make us more viable as an interplane-
The impact of space manufacturing extends beyond earthbound tary species by drastically cutting costs and risks associated with
manufacturing some goods and economies. It’s instrumental in establishing sustainable human launching resources from Earth. The International Space Station
products like semiconductors habitation outside of Earth. Redwire Corp., through a recent NASA
contract, is turning this concept into reality with FabLab, an
has been trailblazing in this respect, having 3D printed in space
since 2011. This progress toward self-sufficiency shows in-space
and artificial proteins. As orbital in-space multi-material 3D printer. This transformative tool will production is feasible and an essential step toward independence
empower space crews to manufacture essential items on demand, from Earth. It signals a new era enabling deeper space explora-
transport costs decrease, we bolstering the self-sufficiency of future space dwellers and mark- tion and habitation as humanity transitions to a multi-planetary
may see more companies move ing a significant leap toward a multi-planetary existence. civilization.
specialized production to space.

INDUSTRY SPACE
BIOMANUFACTURING Organoids are tiny, lab-grown models of human organs used to

study structure and function. On Earth, gravity flattens organoids
After decades of single-use spacecraft, SpaceX’s reusable launch
systems have dramatically reduced the costs of accessing space.
IN SPACE
into blob-like shapes. But in microgravity, cells proliferate faster With biotechnology innovations accelerating in parallel, we have
and can grow in 3D and better mimic real organ behavior. Space reached an inflection point where biomanufacturing in space
also optimizes organoid development. The controlled environ- is technically possible and may soon make financial sense. For
ments of space stations further limit contamination risks, creat- example, growing human organs in microgravity could provide a
ing ideal biomanufacturing conditions. cost-effective, long-term solution to organ shortages for trans-
plants. Producing biomaterials and pharmaceutical goods in
In 2023, Varda Space Industries launched the first orbital factory space could lead to scientific breakthroughs or better drugs. Var-
WHAT IT IS dedicated to pharmaceutical production in space. Its inaugural da’s founder explained in an interview that until now, gravity has
project focuses on assessing the manufacturing of the HIV med- always been considered a constant. With space biomanufacturing,
Biomanufacturing in space ication ritonavir under microgravity conditions. However, Varda gravity can now be a variable to sub in and out of experiments.
encountered a regulatory setback after its June launch: While the This could revolutionize fields like drug testing and disease mod-
leverages microgravity Federal Aviation Administration approved the launch of the orbital eling by engineering higher-fidelity organoids.
factory, it has not authorized the descent of the recovery capsule,
to enhance production of posing a challenge to the startup in retrieving its space-manu- SpaceX enabled cheap launches, catalyzing space research. But
biomolecules and materials, like factured drug samples. Redwire Space was awarded a 14 million
euro contract by the European Space Agency to design a compre-
achieving orbit is only step one. We also need companies focused
on affordable ways to retrieve the results and deliver them safely
drugs and tissues. It deepens hensive facility for tissue engineering and regenerative medicine back to Earth. Reusable reentry vehicles to ferry goods from cos-
on the International Space Station. This effort builds on Redwire’s mic factories will require regulatory greenlights. If approved, reg-
our understanding of biology existing bioprinting work on the station, including a project to ular roundtrip transport could accelerate off-planet R&D across
and aids clinical applications. bioprint human knee meniscus tissue. Meanwhile, researchers
at the China Space Station have successfully created early-stage
sectors. Furthermore, as we venture farther into space, the ability
to manufacture biomaterials and pharmaceuticals in situ will
As we plan for long-term space blood cells in space for the first time, bringing us one step closer become increasingly vital. Transporting all required medicines,
to treating diseases by producing any type of human cell. In this medical devices, and even organs from Earth to off-world colonies
missions, sustainable in-space experiment, pluripotent stem cells, capable of developing into would be enormously expensive and inefficient. Instead, estab-
biomanufacturing becomes any major human cell type, were sent to the Wentian lab module,
where they successfully matured into hematopoietic stem cells,
lishing biomanufacturing infrastructure throughout the solar
system can provide colonists with reliable on-demand access to
crucial. the precursors to blood cells. medicines, nutrients, tissues, and organ replacements tailored to
local needs.

INDUSTRY SPACE
OFF-PLANET ISRU endeavors are largely concentrated on extracting life-sus-

taining elements (water and oxygen) as well as providing rocket
Consider this analogy: If you’re a New Yorker planning a vacation
in Europe, you wouldn’t pack all the water you’d need for drinking
RESOURCE
propellant for return trips to Earth. NASA’s Perseverance rover is and bathing into your suitcase. Not only would it be exorbitantly
actively seeking water on Mars, and similar strategies are applied expensive, but it’s also highly impractical since water is readily
on the moon using thermal extraction. Experiments like MOXIE on available in Europe. The same principle applies to space travel.
PRODUCTION Mars have successfully produced oxygen. In recent years, however,
the focus of ISRU has extended beyond oxygen and water produc-
With starting costs around $6,600 per kilogram, the fiscal burden
of taking anything with you is undeniable. Even as SpaceX’s reus-
tion. Companies like Air Co., a finalist in NASA’s Deep Space Food able rockets strive to bring down these costs, launch costs are still
Challenge, have developed a method to convert carbon dioxide, substantial. By tapping into local resources on the moon or Mars,
WHAT IT IS
water, and yeast starter into protein-rich yeast using a process we can significantly reduce the costs and challenges associated
that simulates plant photosynthesis but uses astronaut breath. with space travel. Simply put, to establish self-sustaining colonies
Off-planet resource production, This yeast can then be converted into a variety of food forms, po- in space, we must utilize local resources. Without ISRU, practical
tentially supplying long-duration space missions. and sustainable life on other planets remains a distant, unattain-
or in-situ resource utilization able dream. It’s too costly and risky to rely solely on Earth for the
Blue Origin, funded by a $34.7 million NASA contract, is “Blue
(ISRU), refers to the extraction, Alchemist”; this ISRU project is a reactor that separates oxygen
constant supply of life-sustaining resources. To live beyond our
planet, we will require more than just the basic survival resources
processing, and use of resources from lunar regolith, leaving behind materials for solar cell con-
struction, while the oxygen could provide breathable air. Zeno
like water and oxygen; we need infrastructure and shelter. Efforts
from companies like Blue Origin, Zeno Power, and Redwire will help
found on other celestial bodies Power and Redwire also won contracts that help missions to live establish the infrastructure we need for scientific research, coloni-
off the lunar land. Zeno Power is converting heat generated from
like the moon or Mars. ISRU aims decaying radioisotopes into electricity to provide nuclear power on
zation, and even industrialization.
to make space missions less the moon. Meanwhile, Redwire is building roads and landing pads
on the moon by utilizing a microwave emitter to transform lunar
expensive and easier by reducing landscapes into solid surfaces.
the amount of resources needed to The ESA is also experimenting with methods to create roads on the
moon. In 2023, the agency successfully used a laser to melt sim-
be transported from Earth. It’s the ulated moondust. The goal was not just to pave roads for future
key for long-term space habitation on-moon transportation but also as a practical response to keep
lunar dust at bay, which has caused issues in the past by clogging
and deep space expeditions. equipment during the Apollo era.

INDUSTRY SPACE
THE SATELLITE In the early 2010s, only about a thousand satellites were in orbit,
mainly because of their high costs. Originally, building a satel-
While rideshare options on SpaceX rockets are showing to be more
of a challenge, growth for the global satellite industry is far from
BOOM
lite cost $200–$300 million, and launches were around $380 slowing down. With growing demand, new players can gain market
million each. Today, there are over 7,000 active satellites thanks share. The market for hitching rides on other company’s rockets
to SpaceX’s efforts in reducing launch costs through reusable now consists of two broad categories: smallsat constellation de-
rockets and ridesharing services. By 2015, launch costs dropped velopers looking to augment their systems, and startups, univer-
to $275,000 per kilogram, and now range as little as $3,000/ sities, and governments planning to send their first satellites to
kg–$6,000/kg. This affordability has opened doors for entre- space. Additionally, regions such as Latin America and the Middle
preneurs and hobbyists in satellite ventures. However, smaller East are growing their space capabilities and also contributing to
WHAT IT IS
satellite operators are struggling to get on SpaceX’s crowded this new demand.
launch schedule. Despite this, smaller launch companies like ABL
Over the past decade, the Systems, Relativity Space, and Astra Rocket are emerging to meet Besides the decrease in cost to both build and launch satellites,
the increasing demand. For those entering the satellite industry, two other significant drivers are creating demand in this indus-
number of satellites in space turnkey solutions from companies like York Space Systems, Blue try: the need for mobile communications and Earth observation
(EO) services. Communications satellites account for the largest
has grown almost sevenfold as Canyon Technologies, and Apex Space offer mission design, space-
craft, launch, ground, and operations services. To cater to growing and fastest growing market segment. According to Grand View
costs decreased for building military demand, Lockheed Martin is restructuring its space di- Research, this segment is currently valued at roughly $72 billion
and anticipated to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 9.5%
vision and selling technology and satellite parts to align with the
satellites and shipping payloads booming space sector. For organizations with even fewer resources from now to 2030. Alternatively, Straits Research predicts the EO
market will be worth $13.6 billion by 2030. New regulations will
to space. Turnkey solutions and to spend on this industry, satellite-as-a-service is an increasingly
popular business model offered by ISISpace, Loft Orbital, and Spire require organizations to report environmental impacts using sat-
new business models are allowing Global. ellite data. This mandated transparency is expected to create an
Earth observation boom, driving innovation of technologies that
smaller companies to enter the enable independent tracking of sustainability metrics from space.
This industry will have an immeasurable impact on resource and
market, but to match the demand, supply chain management as well as urban planning and develop-
new players will need to capture ment—it shows no signs of slowing down.
more market share.

INDUSTRY SPACE
CONSTELLATION Florida-based Sidus Space offers a full suite of satellite constella-

tion management services. It assists in arranging the launch, en-
Companies that rely on constellations of satellites to run their
everyday operations need efficient and dependable systems and
MANAGEMENT
sures all necessary licenses and permits are in place, and handles services, at minimal operational cost. Advanced signal process-
all aspects of the day-to-day operations once in orbit—including ing on satellites enables efficient use of available spectrum, with
monitoring the constellations’ health, adjusting their positions, dedicated integrated circuits maximizing capability and efficiency.
and making sure they continue to function properly. Engineering Phased array antenna technologies create dynamic spot beams,
services company A.I. Solutions specializes in satellite flight dy- delivering signal power and capacity where needed on the ground.
namics by providing expertise in orbital mechanics, mission plan- High-bandwidth optical inter-satellite links connect mega-con-
ning, and satellite operations. It’s been involved in operating and stellations, providing secure, low-latency data backhaul across the
WHAT IT IS
managing satellite constellations associated with the Internation- globe. From this complex network of technologies, operators can
al Space Station, GPS, Landsat, and the Geostationary Operational achieve real-time monitoring and notice of issues, consequently
With the meteoric rise of the Environmental Satellite. Its proprietary FreeFlyer software provides reducing possible downtime risk. They also realize efficiencies
flexible and scalable options for both small and large satellite with optimized fuel usage and decreased maintenance costs.
satellite industry over the constellations. It can automate routine tasks and distribute them Through analytics, these services can open up revenue opportuni-
past several years, there is across virtual machines or cloud instances, providing coverage for
constellations consisting of thousands of satellites. FreeFlyer also
ties by enhancing satellite coverage and expanding service areas,
thereby increasing the number of customers these constellations
increasing need for effective supports traffic management efforts for these complex satellite can serve. Overall, satellite constellation management systems
clusters. Raytheon’s constellation management solutions use a enhance satellite performance, reduce costs, and improve custom-
and dependable satellite signal ground system and edge processing to enhance data col- er service.
constellation management lection speed and accuracy. They employ artificial intelligence and
machine learning to extract maximum value from on-orbit assets.
solutions. These systems assist
satellite operators in optimizing
performance while minimizing
operational expenses.

INDUSTRY SPACE
MINING In 2023, the OSIRIS-REx mission successfully returned a sample

to Earth from asteroid 101955 Bennu. The spacecraft continued on
While many space startups have set their mining ambitions on
extracting valuable resources from asteroids, our moon will prob-
to a new mission to explore the asteroid Apophis. Meanwhile, sci- ably serve as a more valuable asset for collecting these resources
entists hope the sample will offer clues about whether asteroids first. With the success of India’s Chandrayaan-3 moon landing, the
brought water and other key ingredients for life to Earth billions utilization of Earth’s moon as a viable location for landing, living,
of years ago. It could also help inform us of available materials for and exploration is gaining momentum. It is important for startups
more commercial purposes. to consider the challenges of traveling to and mining asteroids in
space, but the moon will also be a significant source for powering
California-based startup AstroForge is embarking on two missions space activities and for supporting future moon missions. Oxygen,
WHAT IT IS toward becoming the first commercial company to mine aster- water, and metals can potentially be mined from the surface of the
oids. It plans to use CubeSats on its first mission to test in-situ moon and used in supporting ways, such as producing rocket fuel,
Space mining is the process of refining in a zero-gravity environment. The second mission will enabling life-support systems, and constructing infrastructure on
send a spacecraft on an 8- to 11-month journey to prospect a near- the moon and in space.
extracting valuable resources Earth asteroid, which has yet to be publicly identified. Ultimately,
AstroForge plans to extract rare minerals from these asteroids The moon is known to contain abundant amounts of helium-3,
such as minerals, metals, and and bring them back to use on Earth. Colorado-based Karman+ which is a rare isotope on Earth that can be used in the process of
water from celestial objects is focused on creating technology to mine water from near-Earth
asteroids. It has identified over a million of these asteroids that
nuclear fusion. The current price for helium-3 is $140 million for
220 pounds, and the moon is estimated to have enough of it to
like asteroids, the moon, and could potentially be mined using a model developed through a generate $1.543 quadrillion. Asteroids, on the other hand, contain
meta-survey of solar system objects. Asteroid Mining Corp. is also numerous metals including nickel, cobalt, and more valuable met-
other planets. The prospecting, on a mission to prospect, explore, and extract resources from as- als, such as gold, platinum, and rhodium. The asteroid 16 Psyche
excavating, and extracting of these teroids. It is developing Space Capable Asteroid Robotic Explorers
(SCAR-E), a modular hexapedal robotics platform for drilling into
has been reported to contain $700 quintillion worth of gold.
resources can be used for various asteroids and processing extracted materials in space. TransAs-
tra plans to mine moons and planets in addition to asteroids. By
purposes including fuel production, using its optical mining process, TransAstra will use concentrated
construction of habitats, and future sunlight to excavate feedstocks for propellant from these celestial
bodies.
space exploration.

INDUSTRY SPACE
SPACE
INFRASTRUCTURE

INDUSTRY SPACE
TELECOMS In 2023, AST SpaceMobile collaborated with AT&T on the first

satellite-to-smartphone call over a 2G to 5G network. Verizon,
On Earth, space-based telecommunications are already enhancing
cellular connectivity more globally: Both developed nations and
T-Mobile, and others are pursuing space connectivity too. NASA developing nations, as well as urban and rural communities, can
achieved record 200 gigabit per second data rates from an experi- benefit from this technology, ultimately bridging the connectivity
mental satellite using laser communications. Meanwhile, Starlink gap that currently divides cultures and populations. Additionally,
extended its customer lead, exceeding 1.5 million subscribers. In other innovations in this constellation of technology will improve
addition to this achievement, Starlink laser-based communica- space science instruments. The use of new technologies such as
tions will be tested in space by the private Polaris Dawn mission, laser communications will enable more efficient data transmis-
which will result in valuable data for future space communica- sion and could make both communication in space and commu-
WHAT IT IS
tions systems. This year opened with John Deere teaming with nication from Earth to space more reliable and efficient. Additional
SpaceX to enhance rural broadband access. An anticipated Star- benefits include reduced system weight, heightened security, and
A considerable portion of the link IPO could intensify investment enthusiasm. greater flexibility for ground-based infrastructure. Taken together,
these advantages will enhance the capabilities of scientific in-
world’s population shares Competitors have struggled to match SpaceX’s breakaway pace. struments and expand the possibilities for data analysis and data
Yet, competitors like Amazon and European-based OneWeb are
information through mobile slowly making progress. Amazon’s Project Kuiper aims to deploy
transfer. Eventually, laser communications will allow increased
volumes of data to be transmitted over longer distances, which
phones, PCs, and various a constellation of 3,236 satellites to achieve global connectivity.
However, it will take several years before a sufficient number of
will be pivotal for establishing our presence in our solar system be-
yond our home planet. Ultimately, space telecommunications will
electronic communication devices. satellites are in orbit to provide consistent and reliable commer- impact life in space but also our experiences here on Earth, wheth-
cial service. For now, Starlink’s foremost rival in terms of broad-
While Earth-based networks band capacity is OneWeb, recently acquired by Eutelsat. Rather
er through more efficient communications or enhanced processes
to industries such as agriculture.
have primarily facilitated this than direct consumer sales, OneWeb employs a business-to-busi-
ness model. It sells to intermediaries, like partner Airbus, which
connectivity, a constellation then provide access to institutional clients, prioritizing govern-
ments and militaries in initial efforts.
of space-based satellites and
technology will increasingly
address the need while impacting
new industries.

INDUSTRY SPACE
MAINTENANCE The European Space Agency and European industry are working
together to develop in-orbit servicing (IOS) technology. Companies
According to MarketsandMarkets, the on-orbit satellites servicing
market is expected to grow significantly, from $2.4 billion in 2023
MISSIONS: SATELLITE
working toward extending the life of satellites include Astroscale, to $5.1 billion by 2030 with a compound annual growth rate of
ClearSpace, D-Orbit, and Telespazio; they’re making progress on 11.5%. The telecommunications industry has serious interest in life
IOS concepts involving maintenance, orbit adjustment, refueling, extension services for maintaining satellites’ orbit and reducing
SERVICING and instrument upgrades. Starfish Space, a startup founded by
veterans of Blue Origin, obtained $14 million in funding to launch
fuel costs. Organizations are now viewing satellite servicing as a
strategic advantage. By essentially refueling and repairing satel-
its own satellite-serving endeavors. After creating a prototype vehi- lites in orbit, satellite operators will have increased flexibility in
cle called Otter Pup, they will attempt to dock on another satellite response to threats.
WHAT IT IS
in orbit before trying it with a full-size Otter spacecraft. Northrop
Grumman’s SpaceLogistics sold its third Mission Extension Pod Satellite servicing is important for a multitude of other reasons.
On-orbit servicing extends the (MEP), a propulsion system designed to extend the lifespan of We rely on satellites for weather forecasting, communications,
legacy satellites in geosynchronous Earth orbit. The MEP will be navigation, and scientific research. Maintaining consistent oper-
operational life of satellites placed on a satellite by a Mission Robotic Vehicle using robotic ation of these constellations will ultimately lead to longer service
lives of spacecraft and increase the return on investment for com-
by repairing, upgrading, or arms, and will essentially function as a jetpack for satellites. This
will extend the satellite life by at least six years. The US Space panies that launch these satellites. Servicing will also minimize
performing maintenance while Force now sees the value in servicing preexisting satellites and is the risk of space debris as satellites can be repurposed rather than
merely decommissioned.
investing in early-stage technologies. It’s working on a strategy for
they are in Earth’s orbit. The refueling and servicing satellites in geostationary orbit, and hopes
service can be done through to have the capability by the early 2030s.
orbit adjustments, refueling, or

upgrading instruments.

INDUSTRY SPACE
MONITORING Much of the infrastructure we’ve set up in space is for monitoring

Earth. Monitoring technology can be used to drive weather-track-
As is the case with all technology, in time, monitoring technology
has become more sophisticated since NASA started using it more
EARTH
ing abilities, sustainability measures, and disaster prepared- than 60 years ago and can address a broader range of applications.
ness. As a pillar of space-based research, the International Space By establishing a constellation of satellites in space, we can make
Station has a series of platforms for monitoring climate change, more observations about a broad swath of phenomena that would
including external instruments measuring ground temperature, require an exorbitant amount of ground-based observers to oper-
imaging spectrometers tracking dust particles’ impact on climate, ate with similar accuracy. Earth observation satellites can assist
and an instrument that measures atmospheric particles from in tracking gradual environmental shifts including deforestation,
events like volcanic eruptions. Additionally, CubeSats are used by rising sea levels, and increasing wildfires. This data can assist in
WHAT IT IS
the ISS to observe particle-cloud interactions and meteorological predicting crop yields as weather patterns become more erratic,
disasters. The European Space Agency also uses a fleet of satel- helping to ward off food insecurities. Governments can use data
The harshest critics of space lites to monitor soil moisture, measure polar ice thickness, and collected from these satellites to improve their disaster prepared-
conduct analysis from radar imagery. Future missions including ness in the event of intensifying storms, including policies for
exploration often emphasize the Flex will map vegetation, and Biomass will gather information on evacuation plans, resource allocation, and emergency response
need to focus on the challenges forests. The Canadian Space Agency and Spire Global will under-
take their WildFireSat mission using space-based thermal intel-
strategies. Businesses can also benefit by using such data to
safeguard supply chains and add resiliency to their value chains.
here on Earth before extending ligence to support wildfire management. In May 2023, Rocket Lab The broader implication is that space exploration and its associ-
successfully completed two launches for NASA’s Time-Resolved ated technology offer benefits that go beyond space itself. These
our energy to explore the Observations of Precipitation structure and storm Intensity with practical applications impact our lives today and will help prepare
cosmos. As it is, a constellation of a Constellation of Smallsats (TROPICS) mission. TROPICS will use
four CubeSats to monitor the evolution of tropical storms and
for uncertain futures on Earth.
satellites and associated space hurricanes to enhance storm prediction. Furthermore, the esca-
lating regulatory focus on climate disclosure, marked by Califor-
technology have been providing nia’s 2023 enactment of mandatory emissions disclosure rules,
valuable information about our is further catalyzing the growth of the Earth observation market.
Expect the regulatory moment to incentivize the development and
world since the 1960s. technology that facilitate accurate and independent metrics for
monitoring our planet.

INDUSTRY SPACE
SELF-ASSEMBLY Several groups are experimenting with confronting the challenge

of space construction. The MIT Space Exploration Initiative’s
Traditionally, structures in space have been completely utilitari-
an in their design. When scientists built the International Space
TECH
TESSERAE is the preeminent example of using self-assembly Station, they had to launch disparate pieces into space that were
technology to construct space structures: Ariel Ekblaw’s project assembled by spacewalking astronauts and robotics. Even as
uses flatpack structures and self-assembling tiles embedded with sending payloads to space becomes more affordable, this more ar-
electromagnets to snap components into water- and weather-tight chaic process for establishing structures in space is still cost pro-
structures that can serve humans in space as well as on Earth. hibitive, complex, and time-consuming. Other challenges include
TESSERAE tiles were included on Axiom’s Ax-1 research mission fitting all composite parts within the confines of rockets and en-
in 2022 and further tested during the 2023 Horizon zero-gravity suring they withstand the harshness of the launch, while address-
WHAT IT IS
flight by the Aurelia Institute. New features of the tiles include ing the unforgiving conditions for the astronauts assembling the
autonomous self-assembly through algorithmic design and structures. Shifting the paradigm to self-assembling technology
Self-assembly technology enhanced bonding reconfigurability. The MIT Space Exploration will provide solutions for many, if not all, of these challenges. It will
Initiative is also exploring magnetically programming cubes to enable more cost-effective solutions and architecture that is dy-
confronts numerous engineering stochastically self-assemble. These ElectroVoxels could serve a namic and multipurpose, imbuing structures with new vitality and
hurdles related to deploying variety of applications, ultimately providing solutions for space
exploration’s unknown challenges. Caltech researchers have also
cultural significance. If Ekblaw’s visions come to fruition, space
will be fitted with stunning and inspiring cathedrals and concert
structures in space and implemented self-assembly principles in a solar power demon- halls, and not just sterile, single purpose research structures.
strator that successfully beamed detectable levels of power down Dynamic structures have other positive implications, such as
constructing them there. It to Earth. The design uses modules that are 35 cubic feet before the possible ability to self-regulate and self-heal. This technology
will unlock new pathways for launch but unfurl into huge flat squares 50 meters per side after
launch. Space Forge is turning to origami to design Pridwen, its
could also have relevance on Earth, by providing dynamic habitats
that can adapt to extreme weather and disaster events in real time.
pioneering novel, streamlined, deployable heat shield. The shield creates ample surface area for
even heat distribution and can be reused on multiple launches.
and versatile space architectures.

INDUSTRY SPACE
GREEN Łukasiewicz Research Networks’ Institute of Aviation has made

significant advancements in the development of green, high-per-
It comes as no surprise that present-day spacecraft propulsion
heavily relies on toxic and cancer-causing hydrazine propellants,
PROPULSION
formance, hypergolic propellants. Its new propellant uses hydro- presenting unique environmental concerns and associated safety
gen peroxide as an oxidizer with a novel fuel, offering high per- risks. As the number of future space endeavors and applications
formance, hypergolic ignition capability, and simplicity in engine continues to rise, adopting environmentally friendly space propul-
design, potentially reducing costs for satellite platforms, landers, sion methods becomes supremely important. A study by the Na-
and launch vehicle upper stages. Benchmark Space Systems is tional Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration further highlights
another company dedicated to developing green, nontoxic propul- the environmental impact of space travel, indicating that global
sion systems and technologies to support space missions. Accord- rocket launches (180 in total during 2022) release approximately
WHAT IT IS
ing to Benchmark, its Halcyon Avant green bipropellant system 1,000 tons of soot into the upper atmosphere per year. Projected
boasts a 25% increase in fuel efficiency over other green mono- increases in rocket launches risk exposing more people in the
Eco-friendly, storable high- propellants. The Space Enabled research group at MIT is exploring Northern Hemisphere to increased harmful UV radiation.
the use of wax-based hybrid rocket propellants, such as paraffin
performance hypergolic and beeswax. These materials potentially offer high performance, Developing more environmentally forgiving propellants or viable
alternative propulsion systems will be no easy task but ultimately
propellants have been the cost-effectiveness, and safety advantages compared to traditional
toxic propellants like hydrazine. In an entirely different approach, will be necessary to adopt eco-friendly and nontoxic propellants
holy grail of space propulsion California-based SpinLaunch is working to develop an innovative to replace conventional, hazardous hydrazine-based systems. This
change will further be precipitated by shifting regulatory require-
space launch system powered by kinetic energy. This technology
for decades, but current involves a vacuum-sealed centrifuge mechanism that accelerates ments, changing market demands, and also by the technical and
economic advantages offered by nontoxic alternatives.
breakthroughs are making this a rocket to speeds of up to 4,700 mph (7,500 km/h; 2.1 km/s) be-
fore releasing it into space. Once released, the rocket’s engines are
elusive form of propulsion more ignited at an altitude of approximately 200,000 feet. Auriga Space
offers another novel approach. In 2023, the company unveiled an
of a reality. Green propulsion electromagnetic launch system, akin to a maglev train, using a
alternatives will be key for ground track to magnetically accelerate a vehicle to high altitudes.
Like SpinLaunch, once the vehicle reaches a high altitude, it then
reducing carcinogenic and fires engines for orbital insertion.
environmentally damaging
propellants.

INDUSTRY SPACE
MONITORING The growing risk posed by orbital debris has highlighted the need
for enhanced monitoring as space becomes more congested. For
Centimeter- and millimeter-sized fragments in space pose the
most significant threats to missions in low Earth orbit. Yet, less
ORBITAL DEBRIS
example, SpaceX’s Starlink satellites conducted 25,000 collision than 1% of these potentially catastrophic objects are currently
avoidance maneuvers between December 2022 and May 2023. monitored, and many are inadequately assessed for the risks they
present. The persistence of these debris is alarming; without atmo-
US agencies are ramping up efforts to monitor space debris, spheric drag, they can remain in orbit for centuries. This means
placing particular emphasis on objects larger than 10 centimeters. any object sent to space without a plan for deorbit is destined to
But there’s also an increasing awareness of the hazards posed become hazardous debris. The financial and safety implications
by smaller fragments. Traveling at 17,000 mph, debris as small as of space debris are also profound. In March 2023, an approaching
WHAT IT IS a penny can wreak havoc on space assets. Recognizing this, the piece of space junk threatened the International Space Station,
Office of the Director of National Intelligence launched the Space forcing a hasty maneuver of the $150 billion station to safety. Such
Ongoing tracking and Debris Identification and Tracking (SINTRA) program, specifical- maneuvers are costly, averaging $1 million in expenses for propel-
ly aimed at tracking micro space debris. Separately, US Space lant and operational adjustments.
surveillance of defunct human- Command is training AI on its extensive data, aiming to efficiently
discern and prioritize critical threats. In October 2023, the FCC Fortunately, we are getting much better at monitoring. Enhanced
made objects in Earth’s orbit enforced its first space debris penalty in a settlement with Dish tracking and cataloging have granted satellite operators the
will help prevent collision Network, forcing the company to pay a fee of $150,000 for failing to
remove the EchoStar-7 satellite.
capability to adeptly dodge potential collisions, thereby averting
substantial collision risks. Consistent monitoring ensures that
catastrophes and ensure that Several companies have also entered the field. In 2023, Japan
essential orbital pathways remain navigable, preserving them for
future space ventures rather than rendering them too perilous to
space remains accessible to us granted Astroscale a contract worth up to $80 million for a mis- explore due to collision threats.
sion to gather data on an inactive satellite in orbit. This mission
in the future. Monitoring goals involves launching a spacecraft that will initially use ground-
include avoiding collisions of based observations for proximity and then switch to onboard
sensors for closer engagement. The spacecraft will then carry out
active satellites, understanding detailed examinations of the defunct satellite using its integrated
imagers and sensors. Another company, Odin Space, is working to
debris-generating events, and detect orbital debris via a sensor on a newly launched space tug.
aiding efforts to mitigate and Another startup, LeoLabs, monitors the trajectories and move-
ments of numerous spacecraft in low Earth orbit.
remedy debris.

INDUSTRY SPACE
DEORBITING Proposed deorbiting solutions include controlled deorbit using

spacecraft propulsion; drag augmentation with deployable sails or
The escalating issue of space debris isn’t just a technical hurdle;
it’s also an economic opportunity. Introducing financial incentives
DEBRIS
balloons; and active debris removal. The latter includes concepts for space debris cleanup could expedite the process, mitigating
like on-orbit capture, lasers to evaporate or slow debris, electric the risk of a Kessler Syndrome—a domino effect of collisions
propulsion to dispose debris in graveyard orbits, and inflatable that exponentially increase debris. Monetizing orbital debris and
braking devices. space preservation can yield significant savings, with break-even
analysis indicating approximately $20 billion saved annually.
The European Space Agency recently succeeded in guiding a These costs will soon equalize and then decrease, especially when
defunct satellite back to Earth, marking the first assisted reentry post-mission disposal practices achieve a 90% success rate, cou-
WHAT IT IS of its kind. Through complex maneuvers, the agency lowered the pled with at least five active debris removals yearly. With forecasts
satellite’s orbit from 320 kilometers to 120 kilometers to en- suggesting the space debris monitoring and removal sector could
Simply monitoring orbital debris sure atmospheric reentry and burn up. Several startups are also grow from $942.3 million in 2022 to $1.5 billion by 2029, the finan-
pioneering deorbit efforts: Astroscale’s ELSA-M system will be cial potential is clear.
is not enough—we also need the first to provide multi-removal services, supporting satellite
operators including constellations with a compatible magnetic From a broader economic perspective, clearing space debris
to come up with technology to capture mechanism. ClearSpace, another startup, recently secured effectively unlocks invaluable orbital “real estate.” As the space
deorbit existing debris and make a contract for ClearSpace-1, the first active debris removal mis-
sion to capture and deorbit an object of more than 100 kilograms.
industry burgeons, every cleared orbit paves the way for new sat-
ellite deployments, promoting a surge in space-related economic
plans and protocols for deorbiting Unlike these reactive approaches, D-Orbit’s approach is preventive. activities and opportunities.
Its preinstalled Decommissioning Device is externally mounted
future space assets. Deorbiting on satellites before launch. The device will be used for end-of-life But there are implications beyond the financial. The problem of
space debris threatens our deeply human desire to explore and
existing debris is difficult and maneuvers—once a satellite is no longer functioning, D-Orbit’s
device will boost the object to burn up in Earth’s atmosphere, or expand. The Kessler Syndrome warns of a bleak scenario where
most efforts today are early stage into a safer orbit. a dense debris field in low Earth orbit instigates a cascade of
collisions, rendering space missions perilous or even unfeasible.
and experimental. In such a scenario, Earth could become an unintentional prison,
cutting off our access to the cosmos.

INDUSTRY SPACE
COMMERCIALIZATION
OF SPACE

INDUSTRY SPACE
OFF-PLANET In the year between Jeff Bezos’ successful first suborbital space
tourism flight aboard the New Shepard in July 2021, his Blue Origin
With the tragedy of the Titan submersible, individuals understand-
ably began to compare ocean exploration to that of space. There
TOURISM: GETTING
took a total of six crewed flights aboard the launch vehicle. In are similarities and differences between the two. George Nield,
total, it launched 25 nonprofessionals on suborbital flights to the who was aboard the New Shepard on March 31, 2022, highlighted
edge of space—a list that includes notable individuals such as those similarities, indicating that both take place in harsh and
TO SPACE actor William Shatner, aviation pioneer Wally Funk, and TV person-
ality Michael Strahan. More recently, Richard Branson’s Virgin Ga-
unforgiving environments, involve a significant level of risk, are
only available to a few select individuals, and cost an exorbitantly
lactic completed its first commercial flight, taking its crew to the high amount of money. With these comparisons in mind, Nield
edge of space aboard the VSS Unity. Members of the flight includ- admonishes that the space tourism industry needs to update the
WHAT IT IS
ed two Italian air force officers and an aerospace engineer from regulatory framework for commercial human space flight rather
the National Research Council of Italy. The flight, called Galactic than merely rely on informed consent for travelers. He also urges
In existence since the 1990s, the 01, took the individuals 50 miles above New Mexico and lasted that now is the appropriate time to question whether the industry
roughly 75 minutes. The succeeding flight, Galactic 02, included is ready for a similar tragedy, emphasizing that rushed regulations
commercial space transportation Olympian Jon Goodwin along with Keisha Schahaff and Anastatia in this space are essentially bad regulations. These are especial-
industry initially focused on Mayers, the first mother-daughter duo to fly to space. Startups
Space Perspective and World View have a different approach for
ly important considerations as a study from the Pew Research
Center indicates that while over half of Americans expect space
launching satellites and sending sending tourists to the stratosphere, namely by balloon. Space tourism to be commonplace by the year 2073, 65% said they would
Perspective’s Spaceship Neptune, equipped with a lounge, bar, and not be willing to go to space even if given the opportunity. While
cargo to the International Space Wi-Fi service, will travel at 12 mph, carrying passengers on sight- taking flights to space has its critics, the industry is still valued at
Station. Now it’s sending tourists seeing tours 19 miles above the Earth. World View’s balloon-based
system will last about six to eight hours and take passengers to
$450 billion. Despite the risks involved, affluent thrill seekers will
continue to seek novel experiences, such as space flight, instilling
on suborbital trips in space. an altitude of at least 100,000 feet, allowing the passengers to see continued confidence in the market.
the curvature of the Earth.

INDUSTRY SPACE
OFF-PLANET Despite its rebrand, Above Space (formerly Orbital Assembly)

still has plans for its private Pioneer Station, described as the
Bringing tourists to space and keeping them there for a period of
time is no easy task. It also doesn’t come cheaply, and critics will
TOURISM: STAYING
first business park in space with gravity, and is taking reserva- always oppose profligate and excessive spending for tourism. But
tions for its future all-inclusive luxury space hotel. The station, space tourism also channels luxury spending toward continued
which will be situated in low Earth orbit, is intended to be used by and advanced research in the space industry. There is the signifi-
IN SPACE businesses, scientists, and tourists. Pioneer will include a rotat-
ing structure to simulate gravity, unlike other space stations. In
cant opportunity to increase scientific knowledge under the guise
of adventure tourism.
2022, Hilton and Voyager Space announced their collaboration to
provide a hotel in low Earth orbit. Voyager Space has more recently In addition to research, space tourism offers obvious econom-
WHAT IT IS
announced a partnership with Airbus to develop, build, and op- ic benefits. It will require new business ecosystems and supply
erate Starlab, the station that will house Hilton’s hotel and could chains, creating entire new industries and jobs. The US Chamber of
Staying in space involves one day replace the International Space Station. California-based Commerce anticipates that the US will need more than 1.5 million
Orion Span has its own plans for a luxury space hotel known as the workers to drive the new space economy. Space hospitality could
constructing and inhabiting Aurora Space Station, with the hopes of offering extended stays serve as the testing ground for long-term space missions and
colonizing space, providing us with more insights on the systems
innovative structures that in space. If things go according to plan, paying customers will be
taken 200 miles above the Earth’s surface and spend 12 days at required to make space colonization possible, and the effects it
can serve tourists as well as the hotel. Houston-based Axiom Space won NASA’s contract to will have on larger communities living in space.
construct the first commercially manufactured module for the ISS.
businesses and scientists. Private It plans to attach this module in 2026, a second module in 2027,
Visiting space can have other unexpected benefits as well. When
Shatner went to suborbital space, he cited experiencing the over-
space stations of the future will and a third in 2028. After this, its thermal power module will allow
Axiom’s space station to detach from the ISS to become a com-
view effect, or the transformational and cognitive and emotional
shift in a person’s awareness when they visit space. This effect
function as luxury hotels, business mercial free-flying station.
would be conceivably more profound for individuals experiencing
parks, and research centers. extended stays in space. Perhaps increased empathy among the
affluent is something that critics of space tourism can get behind.

INDUSTRY SPACE
SPACE While not technically in space, electronic duo The Chainsmokers

are set to perform the first concert in the stratosphere. The group
Whether space becomes a viable option for extended vacations
or for human colonization, it will be imperative to bring cultural
ENTERTAINMENT
plans to perform aboard World View’s pressurized space capsule elements along. These ventures into space will also create new
tethered to a stratospheric balloon. cultures and new pastimes—and economic opportunities. Here, the
introduction of microgravity will be both a burden and a benefit. It
AND EVENTS Once humans are spending significant time in space, we’ll still
want to enjoy the cultural elements we are accustomed to here on
will hinder us from living our lives exactly as we are accustomed
to, and we won’t be engaging in the same activities and sports we
Earth. MIT-led project Telemetron Orchestra wants to contribute to enjoy on Earth. However, it will also open up new possibilities for
ways we can create and experience music in space. The project is innovative competitions. As business parks and other structures
WHAT IT IS working to develop musical instruments that function to their full become more commonplace, there will be first-mover opportuni-
potential only in zero-gravity environments, raising the possibility ties to fully take advantage of the space entertainment and event
As we establish long-term of a culturally rich life in space. This could enable less gimmicky industry. But in the immediate future, space tourism will likely
concert options that one day take place in the actual boundaries remain a very small percentage of the overall commercial space
settlements in space, we will need of space. economy, underscoring the importance of being the first to estab-
forms of entertainment to inspire Anticipating future sporting events, the Institution of Engineering
lish a market and set up shop. While merely being in space would
provide an overwhelming source of entertainment for some, indi-
and Technology has created a rulebook for how football—soccer to
and stave off the impending American audiences—would be played on the surface of the moon.
viduals will undoubtedly look for new things to do and new ways to
stay entertained as we move toward democratized access to space.
isolation being in space elicits. Games would involve five players on each team and consist of
four 10 minute quarters with 20 minute breaks to give players a
Our time there will assuredly lead chance to rest and recover. The optimistic plan is for these games
to actually start happening by 2035, with players wearing slimmed
to novel events with new cultural down Apollo spacesuits equipped with internal cooling systems. In
significance. a similar vein, the Space Games Federation has identified pro-
spective above-the-Earth sports, such as float ball, which borrows
elements from football, dodgeball, and basketball.

INDUSTRY SPACE
PRIVATE China sent its first civilian astronaut into space in May 2023.
Gui Haichao, a payload expert, took off from the Jiuquan Satellite
Private missions require scrappiness and ingenuity and are likely
to result in innovations that can only be driven by privatized ven-
MISSIONS
Launch Center in northwest China to take part in a crewed mission tures. Many technologies that ultimately benefit humans on Earth
to the Tiangong space station. Prior to this, all Chinese astronauts were also used for space exploration. These spillover effects can
in space have been members of the People’s Liberation Army. have immeasurable impact on our daily lives, as we’ll continue to
see in future space endeavors.
Japanese startup Ispace had hopes of becoming the first private
mission to land an unmanned lunar module on the surface of High-profile private missions have the potential to capture public
the moon but was unsuccessful. Its HAKUTO-R Mission 1 module attention and inspire individuals worldwide. This inspiration can
WHAT IT IS likely ran out of fuel before landing and crashed into the lunar lead to a new generation of the public having an interest in space,
surface. While not successful in landing on the moon, the mission highlighting the importance of STEM-based education and influ-
The inception of space travel and achieved 8 of its 10 goals and also collected valuable data that will encing more students to study science, engineering, and mathe-
be beneficial for future missions. matics.
exploration was mostly driven by
Jared Isaacman, the billionaire who funded the Inspiration4 Crew The privatization of space has already proven to have positive ef-
public or governmental interest. Dragon mission, aims to send additional private missions to fects. SpaceX’s reusable rockets have sustainability implications,
space under the Polaris Program. The first mission, Polaris Dawn, but they also have greatly contributed to the reduced costs asso-
However, as early as the 1980s, will attempt to reach the highest Earth orbit ever flown, targeting ciated with launching payloads to space, acting as a democratizer
private organizations began 870 miles over the Earth. Additionally, the mission also hopes to
include the first extravehicular activity for a commercial mission
of the space industry and providing access to a much broader
audience. Many of the initiatives associated with space junk re-
entering the space economy by with a civilian astronaut engaging in a spacewalk outside their moval are also within the private sector. These efforts of cleaning
craft. the skies will be crucial for the continuation of the space economy
conducting launches. Now in the for both public or private sectors. Unfortunately, the private sector
21st century, a growing number of is the primary culprit for much of the existing space junk, which is
one main drawback of the practice.
private companies are entering the
space economy in earnest.

INDUSTRY SPACE
SMALLER A number of companies with specialized offerings are already

operating in this sphere. There’s Firefly Aerospace, which focuses
The overall market slowdown has had significant impacts on many
industries, and unfortunately, the space industry has not been im-
COMPANIES
on developing launch vehicles, in-space vehicles, and services for mune: In 2023, investors showed reduced interest in funding large
space transportation. Supported by a $112 million NASA contract investing rounds for space technology. Still, this pullback does not
to focus on lunar payload delivery, it is planning for its vehicles indicate the Space 2.0 era is coming to a premature end. Investors
IN SPACE to serve missions in low Earth orbit and also to the moon. NASA
selected Relativity Space to provide launch services in its Ven-
are anxious and looking for more sure bets. With this in mind,
there remains significant enthusiasm for new and innovative
ture-Class Acquisition of Dedicated and Rideshare (VADR) mis- space technologies, especially for launch and propulsion systems,
sions. It was the first company to 3D print rockets and is now manufacturing, and mining. Investors will still be keen on possible
WHAT IT IS
applying artificial intelligence and autonomous robotics to its returns and novel possibilities the space industry could offer.
arsenal as the pioneer factories of the future. The Y Combina-
Lower barriers to entry into the tor-backed startup EPSILON3 provides solutions for space project Another bright spot in the future market is various countries’ inter-
management through web-based collaboration tools that focus ests in returning to the moon. NASA’s Artemis program presents
space industry as well as years of on streamlining tasks related to spacecraft testing and opera- compelling opportunities for startups. The US Space Force’s drasti-
cally increased budget includes a new office for the sole purpose of
record-setting private investment tions. Its customer base includes Firefly, Inversion Space, Rocket
Lab, and Virgin Galactic. Vestigo Aerospace places its emphasis creating partnerships with the private sector. While private invest-
have given smaller and fledgling on sustainability through deorbit capabilities for CubeSats, small ment remains conservative, government agencies will continue to
keep the space economy going. Chad Anderson, managing partner
satellites, and launch vehicle upper stages. Rogue Space Systems
companies a seat at the table Corp. is creating satellite vehicles and subsystems for on-orbit of Space Capital, even thinks the decline in private investment will
bring resiliency to the market, as there will be a shift away from
in the new space economy. But services for satellite operators. Its future fleet of Orbital Robots
will perform tasks relating to inspection, maintenance, repair, and momentum investing and back to a focus on fundamentals.
as private investing becomes transport of satellites.
stingier, smaller companies must

focus on core competencies
and quality offerings to succeed
over competition with weaker
fundamentals.

INDUSTRY SPACE
SCENARIOS
SCENARIO YEAR 2036
Preparing for Game Day on the Moon

Marta Peguero of Spain’s national women’s soccer team rose to prominence during the 2031 Women’s World Cup
and further displayed her talents in 2035, when she won the Golden Gall for best overall player in the tournament.
That’s when she was automatically chosen to captain one of the teams participating in the first-ever soccer
exhibition match to be played on the moon’s surface. This exhibition match will function as a pilot to assess the
viability of having future matches on the moon, as well as the possibility of having a more permanent staple of
matches under the Lunar Professional Soccer Association. This pilot match will provide scientists and research-
ers with valuable data on the effects of playing sports in such conditions, affirming their postulations of the
dynamics of the moon’s reduced gravity on ball movement and overall game play.
But, before any of this can be played out on the moon’s surface, Peguero must engage in a strenuous condition-
ing regimen to ensure her body is prepared for the harsh conditions of space. This comprehensive regimen in-
cludes new pharmaceuticals to prepare both the athlete’s muscles and brain for the new conditions of space. It
also incorporates strength training, aerobic fitness, and balance and coordination exercises to ensure she can
adapt to these lower-gravity environments. In addition to exercises, a series of simulated activities aims to pre-
pare Peguero for her experience in space. She will engage in equipment simulation in a neutral buoyancy lab to
give her an idea of the movement and activity required to function in the streamlined athletic sports space suits
that will be used for the activities. A series of virtual experiences using haptic feedback will give her a sense of
how the soccer ball might react on the moon. While the high-fidelity experiences are beneficial, there’s still noth-
ing like trying it all out in the natural environment, an opportunity Peguero is strongly anticipating.

INDUSTRY SPACE
ORIGINS OF A
MULTI-PLANETARY
SPECIES

INDUSTRY SPACE
SEARCH FOR The search for life beyond Earth spans the simple to the advanced.
We scour nearby planets for signs of basic biology, while also
Discovering alien life has always been a focal point in science fic-
tion, often portraying a unified humanity in response—earthly wars
FAR-OFF LIFE
scanning the cosmos for sophisticated techno-signatures, aiming halted, borders dissolved, and racial tensions diminished. But we
to discover alien civilizations across the full spectrum of evolu- don’t yet know if that unity would materialize in reality.
tion. One way of detecting a planet that hosts intelligent life is by
studying what Earth would look like from light-years away. Recent- The Drake Equation estimates the number of active, extraterrestrial
ly, a team simulated radio leakage from Earth’s mobile towers to civilizations in the Milky Way galaxy by considering factors like the
predict what an alien civilization might detect from nearby stars rate of star formation, the fraction of those stars that have planets,
like Barnard’s Star, just six light-years from us. Though they found the number of planets that could potentially support life, and sever-
WHAT IT IS
our current radio emissions would be difficult to detect, more al others. Considering the cosmos’ vastness—with trillions of stars
powerful future systems could substantially increase our chances and billions of Earth-like planets—the high probabilities suggested
Are we lonely or are we truly of being heard. by the Drake Equation lead to a perplexing question: Why haven’t
we encountered extraterrestrial life yet?
alone? The quest to discover Other efforts are focused on finding Earth-like exoplanets orbiting
nearby stars. China plans to launch the Tianlin space telescope in This problem is called the Fermi Paradox, a contradiction between
life beyond Earth taps into a 2035 to seek potentially habitable planets while SETI scientists the high likelihood of extraterrestrial civilizations existing and our
lack of contact with such civilizations. One possible explanation for
profound human yearning. are devising plans for a listening post on the far side of the moon.
Artificial intelligence is enhancing these celestial search capabili- the Fermi Paradox is the concept of the “Great Filter.” This hypothet-
Uncovering even the most ties. Through sophisticated machine learning algorithms, re- ical stage, popularized by economist Robin Hanson of George Mason
University, suggests that there is a phase in the development of a
searchers are pinpointing exoplanets by sifting through data from
rudimentary life-forms on far- protoplanetary disks that envelop nascent stars. The James Webb civilization that is almost impossible to pass. It could be that civili-
zations rarely develop intelligent life, or that advanced civilizations
off exoplanets suggests that we Space Telescope further amplifies these efforts, offering unparal-
leled insights into the atmospheres of planets located hundreds tend to self-destruct, or any other myriad of possibilities. This con-
aren’t a solitary exception. In of light-years away like WASP-39 b. Intriguingly, this gas giant cept implies that civilizations with the potential to communicate
or travel interstellar distances are extremely rare or even nonexis-
akin in mass to Saturn revealed an unexpected presence of sulfur
their pursuit, scientists are open dioxide in its atmosphere. tent. The Great Filter is just one of many hypotheses attempting to
explain the Fermi Paradox. As we gather more exoplanet data, expect
to detecting both the elementary more theories to emerge.
and the complex.

INDUSTRY SPACE
THE SEARCH FOR Researchers have long examined Mars for signs of life. Recent data
from NASA’s Mars Perseverance rover reveals persuasive evidence
In the words of Carl Sagan, “The significance of a finding that there
are other beings who share this universe with us would be abso-
NEARBY LIFE
of organic material. The evidence suggests a more intricate organic lutely phenomenal, it would be an epochal event in human history.”
geochemical cycle on Mars than previously thought, indicating the Finding evidence of even past life would be significant. It would
existence of multiple reservoirs of potential organic compounds. provide clues that we aren’t alone in the universe and also shed
Importantly, the study identified signals associated with molecules light on the possibility of life elsewhere, even if it no longer exists.
that suggest water may have been a crucial factor in the variety of If life can form on other planets and moons in our galaxy, it raises
organic matter on Mars. This implies that the essential building the prospect of life being present in other parts of the universe.
blocks for life might have existed on Mars for a much longer dura-
WHAT IT IS
tion than previously considered. Narrowing down our search to factors that facilitated life on Earth,
such as water, oxygen, and energy sources, is a logical approach.
The search for nearby signs of life Farther away, there are efforts to scope out potential life hospita- However, discovering evidence of past or early life could also offer
ble moons—specifically, Jupiter’s moons. In April 2023, the ESA insights into our own origins. It prompts us to question the funda-
encompasses not only currently launched the Jupiter Icy Moons Explorer (JUICE) to search for life’s mental requirements for life. For instance, is liquid water essential
building blocks there, though some moons are considered more for life to exist? Are we limiting our search by focusing only on fac-
thriving organisms but also traces promising than others due to the presence of liquid water, an energy tors that sustain life on Earth? Could other biomarkers exist that
of past life and indicators of source, and nutrients. Ganymede, one of Jupiter’s moons, is believed
to have an ocean, making it a key target for the mission. NASA also
would provide more comprehensive insights? Additionally, under-
standing the reasons for the extinction of life elsewhere could help
potential future habitability. This plans to launch the Europa Clipper, which will explore Jupiter’s Euro- us prevent a similar fate on Earth. It is crucial to comprehend the
pa moon to determine if Europa’s ocean could be a suitable habitat conditions that support life, as eventually, humanity will need to
involves investigating planetary for extraterrestrial life. expand beyond Earth. Scoping out the “real estate” of our local gal-
bodies within our solar system— In addition to these efforts, NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory is
axy before it becomes a necessity to move beyond Earth is prudent
and a good life insurance policy.
Mars, Europa, Enceladus, developing a robot called EELS (Exobiology Extant Life Surveyor);
it’s designed to look for signs of life in the ocean beneath the icy
Ganymede—for signs of ancient crust of Saturn’s moon Enceladus by descending narrow vents in
the surface that spew geysers. Although still in testing and devel-
life, current microbial activity, or opment, EELS’ ability to navigate a wide variety of terrains opens up
conditions that could eventually new possibilities for exploring environments that were previously
considered inaccessible, increasing the chances of finding evidence
support life. of past or present life in our solar system.

INDUSTRY SPACE
MOON, Under NASA’s Artemis program, aimed at establishing a sustain-

able presence on and around the moon, the agency created a
The moon-to-Mars approach enables us to test and validate sys-
tems required for the long journey to Mars, including long-duration
THEN MARS
“Moon to Mars” office to synchronize lunar and Martian explora- spaceflight, surface operations, and supporting infrastructure. A
tion efforts. The moon will act as a proving ground for technologies successful return to the moon is a stepping stone toward the mon-
and equipment, including human habitats, destined for Mars. Ar- umental goal of landing astronauts on Mars, which is the most
temis II will mark the program’s first crewed test, evaluating deep Earth-like planet in our solar system and likely the best chance of
space exploration, the Space Launch System rocket, and the Orion finding evidence of past or present life beyond Earth. As Stephen
spacecraft over a 10-day journey with astronauts on board. Hawking noted, “The human race shouldn’t have all its eggs in
one basket, or on one planet. Let’s hope we can avoid dropping the
WHAT IT IS Two behemoth rockets, one from NASA and another from SpaceX, basket until we have spread the load.”
have emerged as the focal points of the US’ moon return aspi-
As astronaut Buzz Aldrin once rations. The fabrication, funding, and functioning of these two The problem of getting to the moon, and eventually Mars, isn’t so
spacecraft epitomize distinctly divergent strategies for leaving much technical as it is economic. For these ambitious ventures
said, “Mars is there, waiting to be Earth’s confines. NASA’s plan uses tried-and-true hardware with to be sustainable, they need to be economically viable, and it’s
expendable rocket stages, while SpaceX’s Starship uses entirely unlikely that we will achieve consistent and successful missions
reached.” But first, we must return new hardware, is designed for more people and cargo, and features until there’s a clear profit motive. The effort also comes with
to the moon. A Mars mission reusable components. Once we have returned to the moon, the
next step is to set up Gateway, the first space station in lunar orbit
geopolitical implications, especially given the chilly relationship
between the US and China. Both nations aim to send people to
requires advances in propulsion, and a collaboration between space agencies in the US, Europe, the lunar surface in the coming years, but they do not generally
Canada, and Japan. collaborate on space research and exploration, and have limited
life support, and radiation communication in orbit and beyond. This lack of communication
These countries aren’t the only ones with moon-to-Mars plans.
shielding. NASA will use the moon India successfully landed Chandrayaan-3 in August 2023, making
and transparency could lead to unintended crises, especially since
both countries are planning to land missions at the moon’s south
as a proving ground for Mars it the fourth country to complete a successful soft landing on the
lunar surface. In early 2024, Japan became the fifth country to
pole. It is imperative to establish clear communication channels
and collaborations to ensure the safety and success of these mis-
missions, and possibly as a future successfully land on the moon. These achievements follow a failed sions, and ultimately, the survival and advancement of the human
attempt by Russia to pull off the same feat. As for manned flights,
launchpad. NASA expects its astronauts to be back on the surface of the moon
race.
as early as 2025. China, hoping to become the second country to

land humans on the moon, has plans for its taikonauts to land on
the lunar surface around 2030.

INDUSTRY SPACE
SCENARIOS
SCENARIO YEAR 2052
The Moondust Mariner

By 2050, after a series of successful missions launched from Earth, over 100 humans had established a small but
growing settlement on the Red Planet. The feats of engineering and courage were remarkable, but the journeys were
neither easy nor cheap—the Earth’s gravity makes escaping its grasp expensive. For every launch from Earth, the cost
was substantial, around $320.5 million for every 100 metric tons of payload. But recent developments have presented a
game-changing alternative: launching from the moon.
The moon has become Earth’s pitstop and preparation ground for Mars missions. Engineers, taking advantage of the
moon’s 1/6th Earth gravity, realized that the energy required to break free from its surface was significantly less. The
escape velocity on the moon is only about 2.38 kilometers per second, as opposed to Earth’s demanding 11.19 km/s. This
translates to massive fuel savings. Moreover, the lack of an atmosphere on the moon eliminates aerodynamic drag,
another fuel and cost saver.
But the real game-changer is in-situ resource utilization. Recent lunar expeditions have confirmed vast deposits of
water ice, especially at the poles. With the establishment of lunar bases and infrastructure, this ice is now being mined
and then split into hydrogen and oxygen—perfect rocket fuel. Launching from the moon can reduce costs to just 25% of
what launching from the Earth would be: For the same 100 metric ton payload, the cost is now just $80.1 million. This is
a dramatic reduction from the Earth-based price tag. When considering multiple missions over years, the savings will
be in the billions.
Now, the Moondust Mariner is ready. Built on the moon using advanced 3D printers, and fueled by lunar resources, it is
set to be the first craft to travel from the moon to Mars. The success of the Moondust Mariner will prove a vital point:
While Mars might be the future of humanity, the moon is its gateway.

INDUSTRY SPACE
THE SEARCH Several countries and space agencies are embarking on missions
to find water and other valuable resources in outer space. In 2023,
When Neil Armstrong set foot on the moon in 1969, it was a fleeting
visit. Now, our eyes are set on a more permanent stay. However,
FOR COSMIC
NASA launched the Psyche spacecraft toward the unique, met- supporting extended human presence in space requires a robust
al-rich asteroid 16 Psyche, believed to be composed of up to 60% infrastructure. Hauling all necessary supplies from Earth is a
iron and nickel. Orbiting between Mars and Jupiter, this asteroid costly endeavor. At present, sending a pound to orbit costs around
RESOURCES is thought to be the exposed core of a primordial planetesimal.
By August 2029, the mission will start investigating this celestial
$10,000. NASA aims to drastically reduce this to just tens of dollars
within four decades, and Elon Musk’s reusable rockets have al-
body, offering insights into the early planetary building blocks. ready significantly reduced the cost of sending payloads to space.
Russia’s Luna-25 lander aimed to confirm water ice deposits in Still, the most economical approach lies in tapping into space’s
WHAT IT IS
craters at the lunar south pole, as previously detected by NASA and indigenous resources—most importantly, water. Water is essential
others. The rover failed to land on the lunar surface, but India’s for sustaining life, but it also has immense potential as a rocket
The quest for cosmic resources moon rover, which landed shortly after Russia’s failed attempt, de- propellant. By decomposing water into its components of hydrogen
tected several elements including aluminum, iron, calcium, chro- and oxygen, we can create fuel capable of transforming the moon
encompasses the discovery, mium, titanium, manganese, oxygen, and silicon. NASA’s VIPER and potentially other celestial bodies into strategic pit stops for
identification, and extraction of rover will also soon launch to explore the moon for ice and other
resources. This robot, targeting a late 2024 landing, will roam the
space exploration. Using local resources would reduce reliance on
costly fuel launches from Earth’s deep gravity well. Rather than
energy and material resources in moon’s extreme polar regions for 100 days seeking signs of usable launching deep space rockets directly from our planet, we could
volatiles. VIPER’s findings will aid efforts to harness these resourc- launch from the moon using lunar-sourced propellant. The moon’s
outer space. A crucial resource in es for future human space missions. Farther afield, the United lower gravity allows for less propellant to escape the gravitation-
this pursuit is water, essential not Arab Emirates is exploring the asteroid belt to study water-rich
asteroids. This mission aims to visit seven asteroids, tracing the
al forces. Ultimately, our pursuit of water and space resources
transcends economic or scientific interest; it’s about sculpting a
only for human consumption but origin and evolution of water in these space rocks. The findings sustainable path for humanity’s cosmic journey.
will clarify if asteroids could serve as resource depots for future
also as a source of fuel to sustain deep space missions. Even farther into space, the James Webb
long-term human presence in Space Telescope has detected water vapor around a rocky exoplan-
et 26 light-years away from Earth. Astronomers are now trying to
space. determine whether that water vapor indicates the presence of an
atmosphere around the rocky exoplanet, a finding that could have
significant implications for the search for habitable planets. These
efforts are part of a broader initiative to understand the availabili-
ty and distribution of water and other resources in our universe.

INDUSTRY SPACE
UNIVERSE Astrophysicists developed the most detailed map to date of the

universe’s early and middle years using the Atacama Cosmology
The mapping of the universe is of profound importance for several
reasons, both scientific and philosophical. First, it challenges
MAPPING
Telescope. Critically, it shows how light dating back to the Big existing theories. The discovery of the six galaxies that seem too
Bang has been distorted, which appears to affirm the standard massive for their age forces scientists to rethink and potentially
model of the universe’s development and Einstein’s theory of revise our understanding of the early universe, the formation of
relativity. galaxies, and the distribution of matter. Second, universe mapping
is crucial for understanding dark matter and dark energy, which
While we are substantiating our understanding of one aspect of make up about 95% of the universe. Understanding their proper-
space, emerging evidence is prompting a reevaluation of other ties and behavior will lead to a comprehensive understanding of
WHAT IT IS prevailing theories. In its first few months of operation, the James the universe.
Webb Space Telescope found six galaxies formed within the first
Astrophysicists are working to 700 million years of the universe that seem to be up to 100 times Beyond this, however, mapping the cosmos also has profound
larger than standard theories predict. This challenges our under- philosophical implications. It gives humanity a sense of perspec-
create a map of the universe that standing of the early universe: the mass of the stars in these gal- tive and scale, both literally and philosophically. The Copernican
axies exceeds the total mass available in the universe at that time. Revolution, which replaced the geocentric model with a heliocen-
helps us better understand space tric one, challenged our fundamental understanding of human
The European Space Agency has also developed its own special-
and time. This effort is dedicated ized universe cartographer—the Euclid satellite. Launched in
significance in the universe and major world religions. Galileo’s ob-
servations were considered dangerous to the Catholic Church, as
to uncovering the mysteries July 2023, Euclid will observe how dark matter and dark energy
have evolved over time, in an effort to reveal more about their
the observations undermined its authority. New discoveries could
similarly challenge modern fundamental beliefs, and we should be
of our universe’s formation, its nature and role in our universe. Groundbreaking strides are also prepared for that.
being made in gravitational wave detection. The North American
components including the elusive Nanohertz Observatory for Gravitational Waves recently detected
dark matter, while ultimately low-frequency gravitational waves, marking a historic break-
through after 15 years of searching. This discovery is significant
enhancing our knowledge of the because it opens up a new low-frequency window on the grav-
itational universe, enabling us to study how galaxies and their
cosmos. central black holes merge and grow over time.

INDUSTRY SPACE
SPACE As we set our sights on establishing a sustained human presence

on the moon and Mars, researchers are exploring various methods
Expanding human presence to the moon and Mars isn’t merely
about planting flags; it’s about ensuring long-term survival in
HABITATS
to construct habitats using local resources. In 2023, NASA fund- alien environments. The moon experiences dramatic temperature
ed multiple projects to help astronauts “live off the land” on the swings, and its thin atmosphere provides no protection from the
moon. One project plans to use lunar regolith to 3D print struc- harmful solar radiation or micrometeorite impacts. Mars, while
tures, landing pads, and roads. Another groundbreaking proposal having a thicker atmosphere than the moon, exposes inhabitants
introduces mycelium—derived from fungus—as a construction to intense radiation, both from the sun and cosmic rays, and
material. Mycelium can self-replicate and repair, making exten- experiences frequent dust storms. Additionally, Mars’ atmosphere,
sions and repairs easy. Mycelium also excels as an insulator, fire composed mainly of carbon dioxide, means habitats not only need
WHAT IT IS
retardant, and is toxin-free. It even rivals the compression strength to be airtight but also equipped with robust life support systems
of lumber and the flexural strength of reinforced concrete. Sep- to provide breathable air.
The next time we land on the arately, Chinese scientists have identified glass fibers in lunar
regolith as potential building materials. Building these infrastructures requires a complex supply chain
moon, we plan to stay long term. A that can stimulate industries both on Earth and, eventually, ex-
Instead of building on the surface, some researchers are looking traterrestrial environments. The demand for advanced materials
permanent human presence off- into underground dwellings on Mars. One team has created robots and technologies will grow. Companies in radiation shielding, life
planet requires the construction that can autonomously explore caves and lava tubes as possible
habitat sites. Using the planet’s natural features could require
support systems, or innovative building will tap into this expand-
ing market. These habitats demand specialized tools, opening
of space habitats to protect us fewer resources while still providing protection from the harsh cli- avenues for precision engineering and robotics. As bases expand,
mate. Meanwhile, NASA’s latest Mars habitat competition crowned there’s a push for self-sufficiency and local resource utilization.
from the harsh conditions of a design featuring a massive metal dome enclosing a 3D printer. This could birth a new space-mining industry. Established habi-
space. Plans are underway to use This design produces hexagonal habitats using Martian-concrete,
engineered for durability and radiation safety. Notably, key ele-
tats might also serve as commercial hubs or research outposts.
Private entities might lease space or resources, turning these out-
local resources. ments, like the dome and windows, will still need to be transport- posts into economic zones, akin to free trade zones on Earth.
ed from Earth.

INDUSTRY SPACE
SCENARIOS
SCENARIO YEAR 2047
The Martens’ Month on the Moon

The Martens are thrilled to plan their summer vacation: a month-long stay at the Lunar Resort. After last year’s
tropical getaway to the Bahamas, they are ready for an out-of-this-world adventure. To plan for the big trip, the
family scheduled appointments for the required lunar shots—specialized injections to temporarily activate certain
genes to help their bodies adapt to the space environment. One set of genes will boost the body’s radiation resis-
tance, providing protection from exposure to cosmic rays and solar flares. Another set of genes will make it easier
for the inner ear to acclimate to zero-gravity conditions, minimizing dizziness and motion sickness. The Martens
don’t mind the quick prick of the injections, knowing the lunar genes will optimize their bodies for exploring the
moon. Upon their return, the Martens will schedule a visit to receive shots to turn off the temporarily-activated
genes, allowing their bodies to readjust to Earth’s gravity and radiation levels.
Keith Martens, the dad, is a major history buff. Keith is especially excited that the resort is situated right next to
the historic 1969 moon landing site. This was no coincidence—it’s strategically located to attract more tourists.
Tourism like this makes a long-term human presence on the moon financially viable. The mom, Sandy, is most
looking forward to the resort’s lunar obstacle courses, which she hopes will rival her favorite “Tough Mudder”
competitions on Earth. The Marten kids are equally excited, dreaming of bouncing across the lunar landscape and
stargazing from the surface of another celestial body.
After a month of fun and fascinating science, they will return to Earth with amazing memories. But for now, the
genetic modifications they’re about to undergo will ensure their health and safety in the harsh extraterrestrial
environment.

INDUSTRY SPACE
SIMULATED SPACE In June 2023, four scientists embarked on a year-long Mars simu-
lation at the Johnson Space Center in Texas. The 1,700-square-foot,
Simulated environments like the Mars replica at the Johnson
Space Center can prepare astronauts for the psychological chal-
ENVIRONMENTS
3D printed habitat will expose the crew to Mars-like conditions, lenges they will face during extended space missions. The stress-
where they will conduct experiments, grow food, exercise, and un- ful circumstances of spaceflight, including confinement within a
dergo regular testing to provide insights for future Mars missions. small space and the physiological effects of living in microgravity,
The simulation, called the CHAPEA Mission, will also assess the can significantly impact an astronaut’s health. NASA hopes that
psychological effects of isolation, resource limitations, and com- the CHAPEA mission will provide lessons for future astronauts
munication delays with Mission Control. bound for Mars, such as how to collaborate under pressure and
deal with homesickness. Kelly Haston, the mission’s biomedical
WHAT IT IS China has also developed a simulated environment for moon and researcher and commander, noted the importance of completing
Mars mission preparation. A 40-meter-high microgravity tower in the mission without attrition. Though the crew can leave the sim-
Simulated space environments Beijing simulates weightlessness experienced on these celestial ulation, Mars has no exit sign, making it essential to understand
bodies, providing a cost-effective solution for experiments without and address the psychological challenges in advance. Craig Haney,
are artificially created settings the expense of space travel. Researchers will use a linear motor a University of California, Santa Cruz psychologist who research-
to move objects vertically, approximating four seconds of weight-
on Earth that replicate the lessness, a more economical approach than launching experi-
es solitary confinement, highlighted the importance of studying
social isolation as it is a dangerous psychological toxin, with
conditions of space, including ments into orbit. debilitating and sometimes permanent effects emerging in just a
couple of weeks.
Mars and the moon. The Virtual reality is also helping us prepare for lunar and planetary
surface exploration missions. MIT’s RESOURCE project is testing a VR also plays a vital role in preparing for space missions and
environments are used for training VR platform displayed on the Oculus Quest 2, designed for geologi- studying extraterrestrial surfaces. It provides a low-cost, immer-
cal analysis in lunar and planetary rover exploration missions. The
astronauts and studying possible platform integrates environmental data, including temperature,
sive environment for studying not only extraterrestrial surfaces
but also remote or environmentally sensitive Earth locations. This
biological and psychological luminosity, and humidity, along with imagery from a commercial
lidar camera and RGB imagery.
approach enables researchers and astronauts to explore and un-
derstand various terrains and environments without the need for
adaptations to space life. The use physical presence in space.
of virtual reality and 3D printing

has enabled more realistic
simulations.

INDUSTRY SPACE
BIOLOGICAL Astronauts face significant physical changes in space, with the

return to Earth posing even greater challenges. In a landmark twin
The journey to becoming a multi-planetary species isn’t plan B for
a dying Earth—it’s a recognition of the inevitable: No matter how
ADAPTATIONS FOR
study involving Scott Kelly, who spent nearly a year in space, and diligently we care for our planet, the sun will eventually consume it.
his identical twin, Mark, who stayed on Earth, researchers found Humanity therefore will face a choice: migrate or perish.
temporary changes in telomere length, gene expression, cognitive
SPACE performance, and eye health. Although most reverted to normal
upon Scott’s return to Earth, some genes exhibited long-term
To avoid the extinction of our species, we must find and colonize
a new habitable planet, potentially in a different solar system. How-
changes, highlighting the need for further research and counter- ever, our current biological limitations mean that the human body
measures to mitigate the health risks of extended space travel. is ill-equipped for the journey. Presently, gene-editing technology is
WHAT IT IS permanent and irreversible, which has far-reaching implications,
Researchers, such as Dr. Chris Mason from Cornell Weil, are particularly when it comes to germline gene editing (GGE). The pri-
Surviving space’s harsh working to enhance the human body’s resilience against space mary ethical challenge with GGE is that genetic changes applied to
radiation by activating DNA repair genes and temporarily modi- the germline are inherited by subsequent generations—and there
conditions requires more than fying gene functions. A key focus of Mason’s work involves using is significant debate about the ethics of modifying future children
CRISPR technology to selectively activate genes necessary for on Earth to participate in space missions.1
physical structures shielding space, thereby altering the plasticity of specific targets without
This is why researchers are not only identifying genes that could
against radiation and other completely modifying the genome. Mason’s lab at Cornell has en-
gineered chimeric cells combining human and tardigrade genes, make us better suited for space but also figuring out how to make
adversities. To truly thrive, the latter being organisms capable of withstanding the vacuum these changes temporary, minimizing discomfort or long-term
consequences when we return to our home planet. Moreover, it
of space. These hybrid cells can trigger tardigrade genes when
researchers are considering exposed to radiation, a breakthrough aimed at bolstering human may be more pragmatic and cost-effective to adapt ourselves rath-
er than undertake large-scale engineering projects for fortification.
biological engineering, reshaping cell resistance to space radiation. Preliminary results indicated an
80% reduction in DNA damage when subjected to X-rays. For example, instead of engineering our environments to block
our microbiome and harnessing The research underscores a pivotal moment in human history
radiation, perhaps we can program our bodies to resist radiation
damage.
gene editing to engineer the ideal when our evolutionary trajectory is no longer solely dictated by
1. https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11569-023-00438-1
natural selection but can be intentionally directed to prepare us
astronaut for long-term, deep for challenges beyond our planet, potentially unlocking a new era
space exploration. of human existence in space.

INDUSTRY SPACE
OFFICIAL In 2022, NASA started studying unexplained sightings called

“anomalous phenomena.” After reviewing about 800 cases by May
“Two possibilities exist: either we are alone in the
universe or we are not. Both are equally terrifying.”
INVESTIGATIONS
2023, the team found no clear proof of alien activity. However, they
— Arthur C. Clarke
said it was impossible to draw firm conclusions due to limited
data. Shortly later, three whistleblowers, retired military veterans,
OF UAPS
For years, discussions around UAPs teetered on the fringes of
testified at a House hearing about the UAPs. They warned that the mainstream discourse, often dismissed as conspiratorial. Now,
sightings pose a threat to national security and argued the gov- discussions about UAPs have gained legitimacy via congressional
ernment has been too secretive about them. hearings, credible witness testimonies, and the creation of official
government offices to investigate them. The growing legitimacy
WHAT IT IS Lawmakers who pushed for the hearing called for the govern-
of the UAP discussion is fascinating in and of itself, regardless of
ment to be more forthcoming about the unidentified anomalous
what the objects prove to be, because it demonstrates how rapidly
Government efforts to understand phenomena. In this spirit, the Pentagon’s UFO investigative office
a topic can transition from taboo to accepted in the mainstream.
launched a website to provide public access to declassified infor-
unidentified aerial phenomena mation on reported sightings. Managed by the All-domain Anom- The legitimization itself warrants study for what it says about the
aly Resolution Office, this initiative focuses on analyzing what the dynamics of idea propagation and normalization.
(UAP) are gaining momentum. government labels as unidentified anomalous or aerial phenome-
The testimonies from retired military personnel point to UAPs
Congressional hearings and the na. The Department of Defense describes the website as a central
repository for publicly approved UAP photos and videos. It will
being more than just an odd phenomenon—they represent a real
establishment of formal offices soon facilitate US government and military personnel in reporting
national security threat. The unknown nature of these sightings
makes it difficult for the military to discern friend from foe, an age-
objects that infringe US airspace or demonstrate advanced flight
represent an initial step toward capabilities believed to surpass current human technology.
old defense challenge. The materials science behind these crafts
surpasses our known capabilities, implying either a tremendous
greater transparency and public covert leap in human technology or an extraterrestrial source.
disclosure on UAPs and also a As these conversations pivot from tabloid tales to the halls of
first step in destigmatizing UAP government, the necessity for transparency becomes paramount.
The Pentagon’s steps to declassify and centralize UAP information
reporting. signal progress, but the journey to understanding this profound
enigma has just begun.

INDUSTRY SPACE
AUTHORS &
CONTRIBUTORS

INDUSTRY SPACE

Manager AMY WEBB
Editors
CHERYL COONEY

INDUSTRY SPACE
SELECTED
SOURCES

INDUSTRY SPACE
SELECTED SOURCES
“4 out 4,000 Selected to Live in future-of-international-cooper- www.dw.com/en/space-in- Donaldson, Abbey. “NASA Part- ESA Highlights in 2023. www.esa. https://spacewatch.glob-
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HOSPITALITY • RESTAURANTS
INDUSTRY HOSPITALITY & RESTAURANTS
TABLE OF CONTENTS
841 Top Headlines 859 Scenario: Nomad Stays 875 Scenario: Your Chicken Soup
842 State of Play for the Cold
860 Frictionless Stays
876 Authors
844 Key Events 861 Hyper-Personalization
845 Likely Near Term 862 Pre-Experiencing Through
Developments Virtual Tourism
846 Why Hospitality & 863 Business Automation
Restaurants Trends Matter
864 Scenario: The Mobile Passport
Concierge
847 Opportunities and Threats 865 Augmented Restaurants and
848 Investments and Actions Dining
To Consider 866 Contactless Payments
849 Central Themes 867 Autonomous Restaurants
851 Ones To Watch 868 Everywhere Ordering and
852 Important Terms Anywhere Delivery
853 Enhanced Hospitality 869 Monitoring Food Waste
Experiences & Impact
854 Interactive AI 870 Immersive Experiences
855 Smart Rooms 871 Scenario: Eating Darkness
856 Digital Wellness Treatments 872 Engineered Food and Meals
857 Smart Resource Management 873 Verified Loyalty Programs
858 Nomadic and Modular Hotels 874 Curated Tasting

TOP HEADLINES 01 Continued Global Expansions

Brands from Hilton to Club Med to IHG to Four Seasons are expanding to new
global markets like Thailand, Mexico, South Africa, and Southern Europe.
Major hotel brands are
expanding globally with 02 2 Billion Travelers by 2026
over 2 billion people According to research by Amadeus, there will be almost 2 billion people
traveling at least once a year over the next three years.
expected to travel yearly
by 2026. Restaurants 03 Business Travel Grows
Business travel is three times higher than in 2021, signaling a return to
are diversifying pre-pandemic levels.
offerings by exploring
autonomous vending 04 Roark Capital Acquires Subway
The largest restaurant acquisition in 2023, as reported, was the planned
and flexible delivery. acquisition of Subway by Roark Capital, with a purchase price over $9 billion.
05 Multi-hyphenate Retail Restaurants

Eighty-eight percent of restaurants plan to offer new products and services
that differ from traditional food offerings to differentiate their business and
build better client retention.

STATE The hospitality industry continues to struggle with labor shortages, new
delivery methods and modes now expected by consumers, supply chain
OF PLAY
shortages, and increased costs. However, this has not deterred growth
for major hotel brands and established quick-service restaurants, with
growth for the latter projected to be just under $20 billion in 2023. Many
brands and operators are using a balanced approach when applying
emerging technologies to address their challenges. While restaurants have
been quicker to recover workers than hotels, both portions of the hospi-
tality industry find themselves looking to automate and create contact-
Digitized hyper-personalization less and frictionless experiences that ease staffing burdens. In 2023, the
with contactless experiences is industry is exploring virtual experiences, digital concierges, and robotic
staff. What was once a novelty is becoming more normalized, as many
driving frictionless engagements
studies report that guests and customers prefer to interact less with hu-
and customer satisfaction. mans and are more willing to share their data for perks. Some of the move
away from human services is due to continued concerns over public safe-
ty, health, and sanitization. Increases in personalization are also helping
transform expectations for this industry, so both restaurants and hotels
are trying to learn as much as possible about guests and diners to antic-
ipate their needs. In some instances, researchers are exploring how tech-
nology can turn such a capability into a mostly back-of-house process,
where everything from room selection to the food delivered is pre-prepared
based on what is known about a guest’s preferences.

STATE Loyalty and rewards programs have renewed interest in on-site experienc-
es, and companies are shifting toward exchanging location verification for
OF PLAY
increased access to amenities and secret menus. With customers sharing
more information about themselves, the demand for secure data privacy
is rising. For customers, the collection process remains highly conten-
tious, with their decisions on whether to share data highly influenced by
what information companies are willing to share about themselves. Rec-
ognition-based technology, such as mid-air haptic and facial recognition
technology, has increased in both sectors, with many guests accepting it
because it enables more self-service transactions. As Gen Zers continue to
flex their spending power, they expect companies to provide transparency
on their actions and commitment toward bettering the planet, the work-
force, and general equity. The global shift toward delivery and takeout has
led restaurants to revamp their spaces for efficiency, exemplified by the
UK’s Pret A Manger, which expanded its “Dinners by Pret” delivery service
and redesigned select shops to accommodate the surge in off-premises
dining demand. As we look ahead, understanding and embracing these
trends will be pivotal for both restaurants and hotels striving to meet the
evolving needs of travelers and diners in this transformative era.

KEY EVENTS
MARCH 15, 2023 M AY 2 2 , 2 0 2 3 SEPTEMBER, 2023
China reopens to foreign tourists Wendy’s instant pickup Expanding focus in India and Southeast Asia
As one of the last major countries to Wendy’s begins testing a new Global occupancy levels for hotels are up with
re-open its borders to foreign tourists delivery method using robots revenue per available room up 17%. Occupancy
post-pandemic, China lifts its restrictions and underground tunnels to rates in locations like Bali, Jakarta, and Seoul
and begins issuing travel visas. deliver food to its parking lots. are seeing higher occupancy than 2022.
M AY 8 , 2 0 2 3 JUNE 26, 2023 S E P T E M B E R 7, 2 0 2 3
Biometric access changes Autonomous QSRs Electrification parking

Salito, known in the hospitality Sweetgreen announces it Hilton’s expansion of Tesla
industry for electronic locks, expects all of its restaurants charging stations will make
acquires a UK-based company to be automated in the next it the largest provider of EV
innovating in facial recognition five years. charging stations in the
technology. industry.


POTENTIAL DISRUPTIONS CONTINUE TO LOOM Labor Tensions AI Avatars Delivery Everywhere
While many customers need stability As technology adoption increases, service Brand representatives can curate their Convenience will continue to win out. Delivery
to know if they should move forward unions could begin to feel pressure to block interactions based on a consumer’s has returned to pre-pandemic levels, but now
with taking a trip, stability is not developments they feel would replace their preferences and response to targeted media. consumers expect to be able to get items
assured, which is normal. However, members. Examples include the outcome of Booking interactions will be more friendly as not just at home but wherever they are at
the recent SAG-AFTRA strike. a result, and dining experiences feel more any given time. This will require new tracking
new tensions are arising that could personal. These nuanced relationships will methods and omnichannel delivery methods.
further disrupt the market and in- transcend short-term brand mascots.
dustry. Much of these disruptions are
due to customers demanding more Power Stability Dark Dining Technology Upskilling
personalization, which creates more
With climate change continuing to disrupt As space becomes a premium, store Current hospitality education institutions
work for businesses. That’s especially energy infrastructure, hotels and restau- footprints will continue to shrink, creating may need to add courses on technology and
difficult when these new technolo- rants will need to prioritize improvements to fewer positions for human workers and more how to use it within the industry. QSRs will
gies are increasingly vital to remain remain stable for customers. This will be a for robots. This can increase market presence, face challenges if they depend on employees
challenge as the construction industry is also but will require greater upfront investments lacking technological skills, necessitating
competitive, but the labor force lacks
dealing with a labor shortage. and market research. upskilling cycles to train them to use new in-
the skills needed to implement them. store technology.
These shifts to the market also offer
opportunities to increase services
and provide new touch points.

WHY HOSPITALITY & RESTAURANT TRENDS MATTER TO YOUR ORGANIZATION
Tech-Enabled Interactive AI Nomadic Living Smart Management Pre-Experiencing Verified Loyalty

Personalization
Customer segmentation Traditional marketing will As many populations Adoption of smart This trend will redefine New forms of loyalty
is time-consuming, costly, slowly shift as customer around the world management systems the customer journey, programs that include
and often overwhelmingly loyalty becomes more embrace WFH, they are will continue to become enabling new selection verification can improve
generalizes consumers. attuned to interactive AI also becoming more a competitive advantage criteria and opportunities transparency and
Hotels’ and restaurants’ offerings by restaurant mobile. This nomadic for those that make for engagement. It can customer retention.
use of tech-enabled and hotel brands. It way of living will lead the leap first. These also provide new insights They can also offer
personalization and new will also offer new to lodging revenue systems will allow into consumer behaviors, ways to cross-promote
product offerings could types of cross-industry growth for companies hotels and restaurants based on what they new offerings and
disrupt other markets partnerships, as these AI that can attract more to redefine customers’ interact with and what test new marketing
that have yet to find ways offerings will be able to mobile workers while expectations. They will upselling options are strategies, and can
to curate customized cross-promote for hotels, differentiating themselves also help businesses be available, and create new potentially collect more
offerings. travel destinations, dining from their competitors. ready for future energy product offerings that data to further amplify
locations, and events. and environmental generate revenue even the personalization
regulations that will before a consumer comes customers are requiring.
disrupt operations. to the physical location.

Automation could create curated guest and customer experiences, reducing Businesses not already addressing the lack of data consistency and the need to
the time needed to perform tasks. It would require a heavy lift of data on verify existing data and implement new data collection tools are lagging. Data will
the front-end and permissions from customers, but this could become an continue to become more vital and ubiquitous.
attractive selling point that continues to grow as customers interact with the
automation platform.
Both businesses and workers face uncertainty in the future of human talent.
Companies need to understand their weaknesses in future talent and provide
Chatbots becoming virtual avatars would allow for more friendly customer messaging to current and potential employees to minimize fear of future job loss.
exchanges, especially as avatars become more lifelike. Companies with
traditional call centers could replicate face-to-face interactions with this
technology. Delivery everywhere makes it harder to manage customer expectations and
increases competition as traditional restaurants could see a decrease in foot
Virtual try-before-you-buy add-on purchases could increase upfront profit and traffic. It also impacts quality control and relies heavily on third-party platforms.
generate new revenue streams for multi-hyphenate businesses. The same
technology can support product development and trials to gauge consumer Guests’ expectations for medical biome testing could lead to on-site wellness
interest. facilities needing to follow new medical guidelines and procedures that increase
staffing needs and change spatial allocation and design. Their liability risk could
Digital means could let companies offer increased wellness offerings, both rise as a result.
in the home and on site. Their entry into new markets would require relatively
little investment compared to developing a full site location. Fast dining could take over slower traditional dining as consumers become
increasingly time-poor. The importance of physical place could subsequently
Transparency through verified loyalty programs can increase trust for decline, meaning current investments may need to be rethought and redeveloped.
customers and businesses. Customers would be confident that their rewards Smaller urban infill locations may become a desirable strategy.
are accurate and secure, while the business gets a platform for sharing their
latest transparency reports.

1 2 3 4 5 6
Consider investing in data Upskill your talent now for Consider transforming Start investigating the Since reliable delivery staff Prioritize site develop-
collection and analyza- a technology coworker loyalty programs into data adoption of robotic equip- will become quintessential ment for dark stores and
tion partnerships if these or director, and consider collection tools as one way ment while talent short- to the market, especially as infill locations so that if
tasks are not already being looking for on-site techni- to obtain data from your ages persist so you can delivery becomes ubiqui- there is a talent drought,
done in-house. You’ll gain cians who can service new customers. This can also leapfrog competitors that tous, look for the right third your stores do not go dark
the level of granular cus- enabled equipment. Also begin to set future payment have already invested and party that has verified the in other ways. Automation
tomer insights needed for important will be creating expectations as blockchain installed their machinery. skills of their delivery staff. can help create smaller
making informed decisions partnerships with or hiring technology scales in the Focusing on where staffing For those third-party ven- footprints, which means
about the future. It will companies that can imple- future, and will be seen as shortages could occur— dors, consider finding ways new site considerations
also increase efficiency by ment these technologies. a step in data security and versus investing in every to partner your employees could be developed
predicting staffing changes Evaluating them now will privacy by consumers. flashy device—will allow with the right food vendor. for target markets. This
will need to be made. prepare you for investing in you to bolster your produc- includes hotel brands
them when the time is right. tion line. wanting to create mini
experiences to attract
visitors.

CENTRAL THEMES
Getting Personalization Right Elevated Experiences Labor Automation
Guests expect experiences to be customized to their Dining is no longer just about the sense of taste; Amid persistent labor shortages, many hospitality
granular needs and wants. Combine this with the fact increasingly, people are demanding experiences that companies are using technology to automate their
that companies in the hospitality industry, whether cater to their other four senses, too. As luxury experi- staff functions. Use of AI is happening for dynamic
they are willing to admit it or not, are struggling to ences become more in demand, many are gravitating pricing, robotic cleaning staff, and automated con-
figure out how to increase their market share and cus- toward more sensorial experiences to elevate their cierge services. This automation, once regarded as
tomer loyalty and retention in unique ways. And compa- dining events. New forms of synthetic media, including off-putting, is now being seen as a boon to customers
nies putting money toward personalization are finding avatars and digital menus, offer highly entertaining and guests. Resource management systems offer ways
there are more ways than ever to achieve these goals. interactive experiences, and immersive rooms create for operators to hone in on specific staff functions and
Personalized tastes, viewing experiences, rooms, food, a complete separation from the reality outside. These determine when they should be carried out, as well as
and even entire menus are all on the proverbial table. kinds of experiences enhance the food, and provide when guests will want to interact with actual humans.
Machine learning offers ways for companies to jump- guests with a high-level expectation of their future In the quick-service restaurant industry, automation
start this process, but lacks tools for either collecting visit to the physical space. They are being used to of the back-of-house cooking functions seem to be
the data or translating the data they have. Food and help combat the pickup or delivery-first mentality for steadily increasing with more niche robotic equipment
menus will be the most affected by this increase in per- restaurants, while serving as educational tools that continuing to be developed. While ghost kitchens are
sonalization, as 3D-printed and engineered foods offer resorts and other hotel locations that host events are declining, this automation may be one way for them to
alternatives to traditional meals and flavor profiles. Po- using to stay competitive. Elevated wellness experienc- move forward, especially if they use it for the delivery
tentially, multiple diners ordering the same dish from es also are providing guests one-of-a-kind experiences, process as several prominent chains have done.
the same menu would have entirely different experi- especially when enhanced by technology. Boutique
ences from one another, with their food reflecting their brands around the world are experimenting with new
idea of just the right amount of saltiness and spice. digital treatments meant to elevate mood and detox
the body based on on-site testing.

CENTRAL THEMES
Climate Impacts Less Human Contact Hyper-Locality
Climate change continues to impact the hospitality Hotel guests are finding more ways to avoid human Determining where you stay or dine is becoming more
industry. Disclosures for ESG standards are shifting contact. They are happy to walk into a venue and have localized to niche locations, reflecting a significant
decades-old practices; if companies are transparent a completely automated check-in process, their room shift towards hyper-locality in the hospitality industry.
in their sustainability actions, they could acquire new controlled by technology, and engage with events and This trend is evident from the emergence of nomadic
customers, but if they lag, they could be canceled. Cli- the checkout process without seeing or speaking to hotels that tailor their location and offerings based on
mate change is a driver behind how spaces are being a human staff member. This comes as no surprise the precise desires of their guests to the meticulous
designed and how they’ll function, with a changing re- as technology becomes more pervasive in the home, precision of last-mile delivery services, ensuring meals
ality requiring new energy sources and water reclama- work, and retail worlds. Guests expect to be able to use reach consumers at their exact locations. Hyper-local-
tion equipment. The electrification of vehicles is also technology to adjust their settings and customize their ity is not just about geographical accuracy; it’s also
shifting needs for guest, employee, and delivery driver stay. Restaurant goers are moving into this category about tailoring experiences and products to meet the
parking. EV adoption will increasingly be an important as well. Ordering can be done more seamlessly at the specific cultural, dietary, and experiential preferences
area to watch and consider. Lastly, food production and table with QR codes, and servers are using technology of local markets and individual consumers. Combined
waste has become more important, especially with the to know their guests’ needs and dietary restrictions. with technological advances in avatars and other
disruption of supply chains due to extreme weather, This knowledge helps to streamline the overall process, interactive experiences, those local experiences could
which is introducing new practices for watching what including faster customer service and turnover. Tradi- also become global marketing tools. This approach will
goes on the plate and what goes in the bin. tional dining restaurants are not following this trend allow restaurants and hotels to offer highly personal-
as much, which could create an interesting dichotomy ized experiences, fostering a deeper connection with
and reveal whether future customers prefer slower or their clientele.
faster service.

ONES TO WATCH
Michael Bickel, CEO at TableMation, for driv- Grzegorz Sochacki, Ph.D. student at the Chris Somogyi, Dr. Soojin Jun and Paul
ing tech-driven, immersive dining. University of Cambridge’s Department of Levins, co-founders at EverCase, for their
Engineering, for his work on a robot chef that work in the novel use of electric and magnet-
Steven Chen, architect at Moliving, and learns to taste food. ic fields for food storage.
Hanna Bem, COO at Moliving, for designing
the first nomadic hotel. Rajat Suri, former CEO at Presto AI, for soft- Logan Kim, CEO at Nuvilab, for using AI to
ware and system development efforts leading analyze food nutrition and waste.
Robin Simsa, CEO at Revo Foods, for enabling to AI-enabled drive-thrus.
3D-printed salmon at scale. Marc Handels, chief technology and innova-
Gareth Hughes, founder and CEO at Crave tion officer at SALTO Systems, for the compa-
Dr. Cindy Heo, associate professor at EHL Interactive, for developing interactive tablets ny’s work on facial recognition technology for
Hospitality Business School, for their paper that allow guests to utilize AI in hotel rooms. the hospitality industry.
on the novel use of machine learning for
dynamic pricing. Ben Kaplan, owner of PLNT Burger, and Ken
Sutton, CEO of Yobe, for their work on voice-or-
Dr. Luciano Viverit, doctor of philosophy dering at kiosks.
at INFN Milan, and Luis Nobre Pereira, vice
president of Research Centre at University Shagufa Ali and Anupama Singh, assistant
of Algarve, for their paper on the novel use of professors at Graphic Era Hill University, for
machine learning for dynamic pricing. their patent on a method of reviewing and
selecting hotels based on real-time hotel
Dr. Vikas Sadvilkar, CEO at AirOWater, for en- rankings.
abling the development of clean water from
humidity in the air. Chris Silcock, chief commercial officer at Hil-
ton, for working on prebooking experiences.
Graeme McLean, professor of marketing
at the University of Strathclyde-Glasgow, Ajay Pratap Singh and team, for their patent
and Dr. Jennifer Brannon Barhorst, asso- for IoT-based predictive hotel arrival.
ciate professor of marketing at the College
of Charleston, for their paper on the role of
virtual reality in hotel booking.

IMPORTANT TERMS
Back-of-house (BOH) Facial recognition technology Natural language processing (NLP)
The area in a hospitality establishment for food Technology used to authenticate customers by AI that can understand the human language and
preparation, storage, and staff administration, gen- analyzing their facial features. respond in a human-like manner.
erally away from customers.
Frictionless experiences Quick-service restaurants (QSR)
Biometric payments Experiences that minimize physical contact, layout Restaurants that prioritize fast and convenient
Technology that uses biometric data like facial rec- obstacles, and seamless interactions for guests service over longer-stay dine-in experiences.
ognition, gestures, voice, or fingerprints for identifi- and customers.
cation to complete a transaction. Revenue per available room (RevPAR)
Front-of-house (FOH) A key performance metric of the hospitality in-
Dark dining The area in a hospitality establishment where inter- dustry that divides the total room revenue by the
A restaurant location that is completely autono- actions between guests and staff occur. number of available rooms and assesses a proper-
mous and not meant for dining in. ty’s performance.
Kiosks
Digital loyalty programs Self-service terminals of any kind, typically used for Smart management
Membership or rewards programs that use digital ordering or obtaining information. The use of technology to automate certain parts
technology like blockchain to track customer inter- of the operational management of a restaurant
actions and provide membership benefits. Mid-Air haptics or hotel.
Technology that can track movement and enable
Environmental, social, and corporate governance the sense of touch without touching a physical
(ESG) object.
The framework and disclosure around how a com-
pany addresses these issues. Modularly built
A construction technique that uses prefabricated
Extended reality (XR) components to create a space, building, or other
A technology that can augment the physical world structure.
through either virtual or augmented reality.

ENHANCED
HOSPITALITY
EXPERIENCES

INTERACTIVE AI AI is becoming more interactive, with many hospitality

companies using AI personalities, avatars, or interfaces to
Most guests are starting to prefer less contact with human
staff. For companies considering using AI, consistency
interact with guests. While these AI interactions started will be key in implementing this technology, as well as an
with chatbots responding to online inquiries, complaints, increased social awareness for how adoption affects public
or reviews, they now occur during booking, while on the ho- perception. Integrating AI that uses NLP will lead to better
tel’s premises, or post-stay. Tools like Akia use NLP to speak customer experiences while reducing time needed to reply
to guests in their native language and answer questions, to guests. These AI interactions will also provide new data,
while Quicktext integrates into messaging platforms to in- including detailed segmentation information that a compa-
WHAT IT IS teract with potential guests. In April, Breezeway announced ny can use to update guest profiles, map customer jour-
the launch of its Assist AI, which helps short-term stay rent- neys, and train staff. It will be important to keep online and
AI is being used as an end-to-end als automate responses to potential guests about property onsite experiences consistent, so guests feel that they get
information like parking, Wi-Fi logins, and other general to know the AI. New forms of entertainment and recognition
assistant, as well as a synthetic information. will open up to increase loyalty and engagement. Traditional
persona to engage with guests. A recent patent shows how AI is now moving to the front-
rewards programs can be cumbersome, as with many other
processes, but this and other tasks could become how AI
Traditionally relegated to the end experience for guests as well, through travel agencies manages mundane customer interactions. If used correctly,
that are looking to manage booking blocks of hotel rooms.
back end of the experience, this is Crave AI, from Crave Interactive in London, works as a digital
the technology could also help improve training by model-
ing the best interactions as rated by guests.
happening from start to finish. interactive display window. Guests use it for learning about
and booking rooms and spa treatments, and receive voice,
video, and image replies to their queries. At the Cosmopol-
itan in Las Vegas, the AI bot Rose touts that she can “hook
you up” with the best the town has to offer. Rose’s informal
discussions about her favorite things make it seem like is a
Sin City resident.

SMART ROOMS Voice assistants for smart hotel rooms are becoming guests’
preferred technology advancement, and almost half of them
Guests are beginning to expect smart and enabling tech-
nology in the room, and will increasingly feel neglected and
report this technology factors into their decision about where frustrated by older technology. As properties look to com-
to stay, according to a Hotel Technology News survey. Over pete and differentiate themselves, smart rooms offer more
half of hotel operators already offer or plan to add voice-con- engaging stays and experiences while feeding companies
trolled technology in their guest rooms. Control through new data streams for how their future properties should
tablets has also become an expectation. Hotels like CitizenM operate. As the data becomes increasingly important to
and Four Seasons currently offer in-room tablets that control guests, so should considerations around transparency for
WHAT IT IS the blinds, adjust the temperature and lighting, and allow for how it will be used. Smart rooms can also be curated based
food ordering and information searching. on a value of the brand or a location, meaning the smart
In-room technology now Increasingly, hotels are integrating smart sensors into guest
room could interact with its own style if it were in Mexico
versus Italy. While the implementation of this technolo-
allows for voice-controlled rooms for more personalized control, safety, and efficiency. gy can be a costly investment, a return will be realized as
These sensors can be integrated into the HVAC system and
interactions, new VR activities, occupancy sensors to track the areas being used and ad-
guests increasingly rely on it for elevating their stay. Hotels
can also craft a safety campaign around these improve-
sleep sensing beds, and more. just building systems accordingly. In Lake Nona, Florida, the ments, as they offer more curated control over the systems
Wave Hotel will use Well+tech by Wave for air sanitization
IoT sensors, control panels, and and circadian lighting to boost a guest’s circadian rhythm.
and tools used to clean rooms. However, cumbersome inter-
actions will need to be smoothed out prior to launch, or the
voice-activated automation are Well+tech is also using AI-enhanced beds to help guests get technology will be seen as a burden rather than an exciting
a better night’s sleep. Sensors by pools and bath tubs are be- offering. This is especially pressing for technologies that
helping to create unique guest ing explored in a patent for safety in monitoring water levels will be augmenting traditional human-staffed roles.
experiences. and temperature when a person is present.
VR is also making hotel rooms smarter with projection inter-

faces for guests to interact with and change how the room
looks. Marriott’s customers can order VR headsets to their
room and then have customized virtual experiences. One ex-
perience is a VR Postcard, which lets them experience stories
from travelers around the world.

DIGITAL WELLNESS Physical wellness has been a mainstay of offerings from the
hotel industry, and Peloton and other interactive technology
Wellness continues to be an important motivation for travel
and a major factor in guests’ hotel selection criteria. With
TREATMENTS exercise equipment have already become integrated into

these offerings. Physical and mental wellness experienc-
many still looking to spend down unused monies from the
pandemic and prioritize their health and well-being, offering
es are also now becoming more technologically enabled. unique digital wellness experiences will garner international
Sensei Lāna’i, A Four Seasons Resort in Hawaii, is offering attention and guests. Aligning with these preferences ahead
wearables and an analysis of a guest’s biometric data to of investments will be key to their success, as well as make
optimize health awareness and offerings. them more affordable. Digital wellness also offers non-tra-
WHAT IT IS ditional engagement with guests and can be done to scale
Detox technology is also enabling better physical health, in multiple sites, meaning smaller sites could still offer
Virtual wellness experiences, with Montage Laguna Beach offering VR immersive expe-
riences and detox face and feet technology, and the spa at
high-end digital wellness treatments that take up smaller
footprints. More integration of wearables and data will also
detox technology, and exercise Claridge’s offering the UK’s only MLX i3Dome, a three-in-one impact wellness treatments and help companies curate
body-detoxifying chamber. Mental health offerings enabled
technology are being integrated by technology are continuing to grow, too. Well+tech guests
them to meet individual needs. This will require policies and
adherence to health information privacy and individual cus-
into traditional spa and wellness will have access to virtual reality-led meditation with tomer expectations. A particular challenge arises—capturing
LUVRworldwide, and the Carillon Miami Wellness Resort
centers. has what it calls the biostation, which is an anti-aging and
the data during the short amount of time when guests are
on the property—so hospitality companies will need to fac-
medical wellness center. One offering at the biostation is a tor in the ability to process data quickly.
meditation pod that uses color, sound, and energies ther-
apy. Akasha Spa at Café Royal has launched London’s first
Electronic Music Meditation class, and Kimpton Hotels
has partnered with Talkspace to provide free online therapy
sessions for guests.

SMART RESOURCE Water is a top-of-mind resource for most hotels, but es-
pecially in areas where it’s scarce like the Middle East. In
Many guests are sensitive to the needs of the region they
are visiting. They are well aware when there is a drought,
MANAGEMENT Dubai, Delta Hotels by Marriott are employing new technol-

ogy to address water scarcity in the region. The hotels use
and those who are eco-conscious will expect the places
they stay to not tax a region’s fragile resources. In many
India-based AirWater’s Atmospheric Water Generators to regions, government entities are banning pools due to
turn the humidity into clean, drinkable water. In fact, they climate change. This, along with strains on existing power
have two of these machines to provide water to all its guest grids, will force the hospitality industry to become more
rooms, restaurants, meeting facilities, spa, and gym. For responsible with its resources, and will necessitate hotels
WHAT IT IS pools, WaterGuru’s SENSE is an AI that can self-manage go beyond simply asking guests to reuse their sheets and
multiple pools for better water management and testing. towels. With many guests using sustainability to guide their
The hospitality industry is And for HVAC, the Beverly Hilton and Waldorf Astoria Beverly travel destinations, hotels could become rated based on
Hills are using an ice-based thermal energy storage system their carbon footprint and sustainability strategies or im-
responding to the call for better called Nostromo Energy to provide carbon-free air condi- plementations. This type of information is readily available
use practices by investing in tioning. Singapore-based proptech startup SensorFlow in other markets—like grocery and dining, thanks to apps
offers IoT and AI integration into a hotel’s energy manage- that give you information on how much your food is adding
smart resource management ment system to help automate energy consumption. Hotel to your carbon footprint—but this type of information seems
platforms, devices, and systems. Marcel in New Haven, Connecticut, has become the first
net-zero hotel in the US by relying on a variable-capacity
less marketed and offered in the hotel industry. For early
adopters, it could be an effective marketing strategy and a
heating and cooling HVAC system and Mitsubishi’s first differentiator.
installation of its Heat2O all-electric high-volume hot water
system.

NOMADIC AND The hotel industry is responding to the market’s increased

desire for mobility with its own version of a pop-up: mov-
With a more mobile population looking for curated places
to live and work, and the blending of working spaces into
MODULAR HOTELS able hotels. Moliving is building a modular and movable

hotel in New York that can scale up depending on needed
the hospitality sector, nomadic and modular hotels could
offer more temporary ways to capture those guest stays.
inventory per season. The structure costs $150,000; it takes This could give the hospitality industry the potential to
about five months to manufacture and can be removed disrupt apartment and co-living spaces, as well as co-work-
without harming the land it sits on. Habitare is creating a ing locations with more nomadic and pop-up locations.
movable luxury hotel that is meant to travel to locations While the mobility infrastructure could prove challenging,
WHAT IT IS that might have been previously inaccessible. Its model cre- it could also allow development costs to go much further,
ates instant destinations, based on demand, that are quick allowing companies to set up a bare-minimum site ver-
While a nascent trend, some and affordably constructed. sus a fully new-build location. As urban centers try to find
ways to revitalize and reinvent themselves, these modular
new hotels are creating mobile For more permanent, but still modularly built hotels, we and nomadic locations could bring new opportunities for
can look to Volumetric Building Cos.: It’s working with
properties that ebb, flow, and Fairfield by Marriott to use modular construction to rapidly
tourism and experiences, which means there could be new
and specialized location offerings. This, paired with other
move due to guest demand. expand Fairfield’s existing properties worldwide with a new entertainment offerings like concerts or events that are
prototype. Uni Villas offers modular units to create mini
Nomadic and modular hotels can resorts for entrepreneurs. These units are prefabricated and
typically hard to reach or attend due to lack of hotel space,
could also increase their relevance to the industry. Studying
be quickly constructed, taken shipped on the back of a truck with furniture and check- when market saturations peak will be critical to know where
in systems included. London’s Aylott + Van Tromp offers to invest here.
down, and relocated. Hytte: 15 pre-designed cabins for hotel operators to use. The
cabins can either be off-the-shelf or customized and can be
used for local stays or more remote destinations. Both Uni
Villas and Aylott + Van Tromp say these types of creations
are essential to enable the hospitality industry to respond
to demands for new locations, while being sustainably
minded.

SCENARIOS
SCENARIO YEAR 2033
Nomad Stays
While traditional hotels are holding strong, there has been some strong competition from an unusual source: RV
parks. Once thought of as a destination for campers and mobile families, with the addition of off-grid infrastruc-
ture and modular hotels, RV parks have become all the rage for pop-up hotels. Initially, there was an increase in
RV parks in Norway, as tourism to its luscious fjords rose. Acting quickly, Marriott spun off a new division called
Nomad Stays, which offers predictive insights into when and where pop-up hotels should be built and then taken
down and moved to a new location. The Vinjerock and Træna music festivals were the first trial runs in 2028—
while they had moderate success, what was especially newsworthy was that the modular cabins were set up for
the Træna festival first, taken down, shipped, and set up for the Vinjerock within a week’s time. Attendees report-
ed that they much preferred to sleep in one of the modular sleeper bunks that had its own facilities over using a
tent. Once news of this got out, Burning Man organizers and participants soon began to contact Nomad Stays to
see if they could purchase or rent these cabins, especially when the weather called for rain. Pretty soon, Nomad
Stays had set up roving sites around the Isle of Arran in Scotland, Ladakh in India, and even Mount Cook National
Park in New Zealand. Nomad Stays’ current top demographic? Autonomous vehicle owners. With more autono-
mous vehicles and people working from home, many have their cars book their Nomad Stay for them, and just let
the road lead them to their next destination.

FRICTIONLESS Interactive digital concierges and XR technology are now

facilitating a hotel guest’s entrance experience. Uniguest
Guests’ desire to have fewer interactions with human staff
has extended from the check-in desk to wanting to walk in
STAYS offers an all-in-one digital concierge signage system for

finding information on restaurants, events, and other in-
and out without needing to speak to anyone at all. For the
worn-out business traveler, a more frictionless stay could
formation. The goal of the system is to reduce the need for be especially nice. This could also be of benefit for anyone
guests’ interactions with human staff, thereby freeing up in the travel industry working off-hours or arriving early in
humans to perform other work. At Yotel’s Singapore loca- the morning or late at night, worrying if the night manager
tion, digital check-in kiosks similar to the ones used at air- will be available and responsive. With new management
WHAT IT IS ports provide guests a frictionless and humanless check-in systems, guests will now select the number and type of
process. The hotel has also been using robots to help with interactions they do want to have with humans—and choose
Beyond contactless checking its service offerings since 2019. where and when. New booking practices will need to include
this option for guests to select, and hotel staff might also
in and out, new technology for Voice assistants are providing support, as guests can use need to ask that question upon arrival. On-site technology
them to request towels, check in or out, and make reserva-
payments and authentication tions without having to call the front desk. A recent patent
repairmen will also become more of a necessity due to the
increased integration of humanless technology, in order
are minimizing staff-guest is exploring using sensors embedded throughout the hotel for the experience to stay smooth. These technicians might
to predict when guests will arrive, based on their uploaded
interactions and providing profile and past activities, so staff can address the needs
also need to be more than repairmen if the frictionless stay
includes digital wellness treatments or in-room cooking
guests with greater access to the of the hotel room while guests are away. Some are using and dining.
wireless sensing technologies to automatically identify
facilities and activities on site. and authenticate guests throughout the site, which helps
enable seamless transactions. Similarly, contactless pay-
ments are no longer reserved for large resorts. Two hotels in
Ibiza are using Very Important Bands (VIBs) to allow guests
to skip lines, pay, check in and check out. Even elevators are
becoming more frictionless with the NZ Technologies Hov-
erTap system, which allows for panel control by a touch-free
hand gesture.

HYPER- Data to enable personalization is becoming more of neces-

sity to increase profit and generate guest loyalty. While a
Hyper-personalization is not new, but with new develop-
ments in technology it will scale to provide personalization
PERSONALIZATION report from Sojern found that over three quarters of hotels
have seen an increase in revenue after enabling first-party
on a microscopic level. Guests’ expectation of hyper-person-
alization will continue to grow as they experience what it’s
data acquisition, privacy of the data remains a concern. like to stay in a place that knows them perhaps even better
PassiveBolt offers a solution: a single travel profile that than they know themselves: Their data is used to make
can be used across multiple sites, services, and operators sure food shows up before they ask, and they are offered a
to know more about their guests’ preferences. Since it’s a wellness treatment due to their stress level. Consider this
WHAT IT IS decentralized data storage platform, guests can turn off the next level of stars and ratings. Hyper-personalization
access to their data at any time. could become a differentiating factor in how guests search
On-premise staff, rooms, and Predicting guest needs is also an increasingly needed skill.
for hotels, inquiring about the levels of personalization that
are offered, which would need to be standardized by the in-
spaces are utilizing technology A recent patent looks to use AI to predict when guests will dustry as a whole. It will also impact when staff are working
arrive while also integrating data that guests provide to
to know guests’ preferences on choose the type of room they would prefer and make other
based on a guest’s preferences. Loyal and frequent guests
will come to expect certain staff to be present when they ar-
a granular level; this includes optimizations for their stay. Facial recognition is another rive or be ready to offer a desired service. This could impact
technology enabling greater personalization. Using Google
predicting what guests might Glass, Itesso’s staff can instantly recognize guests and
scheduling for staff who are experts on preparing a specific
food dish or administering a wellness treatment. Technolog-
want before they even know know how to personalize their interactions. Similarly, Hapi ically enabled regional personalization could become a draw
Guest uses its platform to give front desk agents more infor tourists who are looking for consistent but more worldly
themselves. formation about guests while they check in. places to experience.

PRE-EXPERIENCING Recent research shows that guests rely less and less on
reviews, and VR plays a major role in influencing their
Try-before-you-buy has become an expectation in retail, and
the trend has now expanded to drive guests and tourists
THROUGH VIRTUAL expectations before they travel. This trend is growing with
examples such as Radisson’s 3D virtual venue for guests to
to a location. Guests will want to try their room first—to see
the view or feel the bed firmness—and might also want to
TOURISM explore the hotel and even book their room, Atlantis Dubai’s
Virtual Tour that lets guests see the quality level of the
be walked through what their whole stay will look and feel
like, which could be a paid add-on package. This capability,
experience they will have at the resort, and The Grand Oasis bundled with other personalized services and offerings, can
Hotel’s 360º Hotel VR Tour. Omni Hotels has found that create new travel and tourism packages and support events
WHAT IT IS these types of virtual tours can increase booking conver- and conferences. Locations offering this service can pay a
sions from 16% to 67%. small fee to allow registrants to vote on which location they
Travel is no longer just about Staff is also becoming integrated into this trend, like at Le
prefer based on the pre-experiencing offer. Pre-experience
sales will help increase booking conversions, an incredibly
going to a physical destination. Franschhoek Hotel & Spa, where a 360 VR tour offers poten- important development when planning future conventions.
tial guests the ability to meet the manager. With increasing
Increasingly, customers are using virtual events, these experiences are also being hosted in
It will also allow for customer feedback that can help opera-
tors know their areas of deficiency. Companies that manage
virtual vacations and tourism in the metaverse. RendezVerse is working with Marriott and booking sites and get paid by the rooms booked for these
Atlantis to replicate their hotels in the metaverse for vir-
lieu of IRL traveling. Hotels are tual conferences. This type of virtual tourism is also being
conferences should be capitalizing on this now if they are
not already.
using virtual reality tours to entice explored by Wander, which is creating VR travel options for
exploring ancient wonders, traveling by train, or touring
guests to stay at their facilities, museums.
and this concept now extends A recent patent also explores linking the real world with the
to pre-experiencing events and virtual by using VR, cloud real-time monitoring, and robot-
ics to give skiers the experience of a ski resort’s live condi-
other on-premise happenings for tions in the metaverse. This could enable other services like
those of UrVenue, which creates 3D maps of pools, event
further enticement. venues, nightclubs, lounges, and more for guests to try
before booking.

BUSINESS Automation is essential for creating better business flow.

New platforms from Best Western are allowing guests to tip
With tourism increasing and labor decreasing, finding
new ways to run the business—while also providing better
AUTOMATION staff through eTip, reducing some financial processes. Pric-

ingServiceAI is automating pricing for rooms, using market
experiences and collecting data—will continue to be of vital
importance in the hospitality industry. New systems that
data to update every few hours. In the back-of-house, facial optimize when staff needs to be present, and provide seam-
recognition technology is making it easier for staff to clock less payments for those staff members, will make working
in and out as well: FaceMe installed at staff entrances can at those locations more desirable. These automated sys-
check employees in and also check body temperature, tems can also improve data integrity and veracity, meaning
WHAT IT IS which can be helpful during future health crises. Staff auto- that the data collected can be trusted for informing future
mation can also be seen through a patent for a housekeep- decisions. These reports will provide critical analytics that
From addressing staffing ing system that will use AI sensors in a room to know what
needs to be cleaned and directs a robotic cleaning staff to
businesses will need for knowing where performance and
satisfaction are lacking or exceeding expectations. They
challenges to increasing sales to complete the necessary tasks.
can also support targeted marketing campaigns based on
providing new means of safety, Other forms of augmentation are occurring through block- the data collected through the automation processes that
chain technology like LockChain, a decentralized subscrip- correlate to new promotions during offseasons or for repeat
new technology is augmenting tion-based platform to help make property rentals more guests. Besides all this, automation can also help with dy-
hospitality business practices and secure. According to the 2023 Lodging Technology Study by namic pricing and real-time updates that can lead to max-
imum revenue generation. Prioritizing the right automated
Hospitality Technology, 70% of respondents were looking
efficiencies. to add, upgrade, or change property management systems. system and where it should be implemented first deserves
New investments into management platforms like Germa- to be a carefully considered decision within a long-term
ny-based Betterspace are providing better staff optimiza- strategic plan.
tion and customer communication, and will be used to help
enhance their energy management platforms.
Technology is also now making pools safer. Coral Smart Pool

is providing MYLO, a virtual lifeguard for hotels. Leonardo
Hotels are implementing this system to detect if there is a
drowning incident or dangerous situation, which triggers an
alarm in the pool and the hotel lobby.

SCENARIOS
SCENARIO YEAR 2028
The Mobile Passport Concierge

The Juan family eagerly opens their latest purchase, a sleek-looking glass screen slightly larger than a tablet greets them in their preferred
language. It’s their new Mobile Passport Concierge, or MPC. “Welcome to a new traveling experience, Juan family,” it purrs.
The glass projects an amalgamation of the family members’ faces and continues to speak. “Please place your fingers on the screen or
speak your names so we can verify your identity.” After each member uses their preferred biometric to confirm their identity, MPC smiles.
“Thank you. Now, as I have been given access to your shared calendars, I see that the big family vacation is coming up, but nothing has been
planned yet. Is that correct?”
The Juans all nod.
“Fantastic, that is exactly what I hoped to hear because that’s what I do best. I will plan it all in 15 seconds or less! Based on the data you
provided when you signed up for Hilton’s Curated HotelKey service, I am going to find a Hilton location that offers an immersive experience
for Carlos, a 3D bio-scan for Lyla, a room that offers light and sound sensitivity screens for Miguel, and a restaurant that monitors food waste
for Rosa. Here we go!” The MPC projects images showing a virtual worldwide search until it lands in Madrid. MPC chimes, “This is one of the
newest nomadic destinations in Madrid and meets all of your specialized requirements and desires. It was built in under three months and
travels to a new spot around the city every few years.”
Very excited, the family books the trip, until MPC comes back with an alert. “I notice that Carlos’ passport will expire during your vacation.
Shall I update it now?” Carlos gives his consent, to which MPC replies, “Very well. Please also remember to take me with you throughout the
airport as I will manage your tickets, any further passport updates, and fill out your travel visas. For now, please sit back and enjoy a quick
video of the potential memories you could create.”
With that, the screen is divided into four panels, and each family member watches a curated movie of themselves on their future vacation.

AUGMENTED
RESTAURANTS
AND DINING

CONTACTLESS Persistent concerns with surface sanitization have changed

the way customers want to pay for their food. Most restau-
Even though many restaurants are actually reducing their
payment options, consumers are starting to push for more.
PAYMENTS rant and QSR patrons prefer to use contactless payments

and self-service kiosks—and businesses do, too, because it
Some are asking for biometric payment options for con-
venience, and to make their experience quicker and fric-
frees up servers to spend more time helping patrons versus tionless. So, there could be a rise in expectation for gesture
cashing out tables. Presto was one of the first companies and mid-air haptics technology at kiosks and checkout
to release a tabletop ordering system and handheld tablet counters. This all comes at a time when credit cards are
for servers, which increased the adoption of this trend. It beginning to cost restaurants more in transaction fees and
WHAT IT IS has since evolved to allow customers to order and pay for customers are taking note when the fees are passed on to
their meal at the table with near-field communication (NFC) them. The new forms of payment could create less friction
Restaurant patrons can now pay contactless cards and digital wallets. and quicker processing. Covert menus and easier payment
options will become more appealing to patrons who are
for their meals with new forms Many restaurants and QSR chains are exploring using looking for new experiences with little time to spare. As
contactless forms of payment, such as biometric payments
of integrated payment. This is that include gesture, pay-by-face, or pay-by-palm. Panera is
kiosks become more popular within QSRs for faster custom-
er experiences, this reduces front-end personnel needs—for
being offered through biometric rolling out pay-by-palm capabilities for reward members to some. Being aware of your demographics and allowing for
2,100 locations. Steak-n-Shake is allowing 500 of its loca-
and other forms of contactless tions to use pay-by-face, and plans to expand this technol-
those who choose to still have face-to-face interactions
will be key to not exclude one consumer group over the
payments. ogy to another 300 stores. In one instance, at Pho Banh Mi other. Companies should begin to establish preferences for
Che Cali restaurants in Los Angeles, customers can opt for various forms of biometric payments now to help familiar-
either paying by face or by palm. Some restaurants are also ize their current and future customers with this new way of
experimenting with bitcoin payments, sometimes through paying today.
QR codes at the table. This builds off of systems like the
Sunday app that launched during the pandemic. QR codes
are now being discreetly placed on the table to offer promo-
tions or take patrons to secret menus as well.

AUTONOMOUS Automated drive-thru ordering is beginning to become

mainstream with companies like Wendy’s, McDonald’s,
As patrons continue to accept less-human interactions
when they see a return on their valuable time. These au-
RESTAURANTS and White Castle rolling out AI to take over the ordering
process. ConverseNow offers solutions for others looking
tomations will be seen as a way to offer better efficiency
for customers, help reduce errors, and potentially increase
to automate with two AI personas, George and Becky, which hygiene—all priorities for customers. They could open up
can have human-like conversations. Drive-thrus are also possibilities for dark restaurants that function 24/7, a use-
becoming smaller and more automated with conveyor belts, ful development for more mobile populations, transporta-
such as at a new McDonald’s prototype in Fort Worth, Texas: tion professionals, and vacationing families. Yet automation
WHAT IT IS It has a smaller footprint, and patrons pick up their food at could also become a sticking point for companies consid-
a dedicated window from a conveyor belt. At Wendy’s, delivering whether traditional sit-down-dining or autonomous
Some kitchen, waitstaff, and ery to cars in the parking lot is also looking different as it restaurants offer a more lucrative path for either franchis-
tests underground tubes and robots for food delivery. ing or setting up a subsidiary brand. With a more mobile
ordering activities can now all and connected world, however, automation offers the poten-
Processes have also become more automated at restau-
happen with very little human rants and QSRs. Yum Brands is using AI to automate the
tial for consistency of experience no matter where patrons
engage with your restaurant and food. It can also help the
intervention. This includes product kitchen flow, ordering, and delivery for thousands of its current issues due to a reduced labor force. However, it will
Pizza Hut locations. In the front-of-house, servers are now
ordering and prep work. using wearables that receive notifications from the kitchen
shift future generations’ expectations of what dining expe-
rience should look like and adds a layer to the categories
or Presto’s tabletop ordering systems when patrons need of traditional, QSR, and now autonomous. Established QSR
refills or if they have allergies. For the back-of-house, Convo- brands trying to become more efficient will want to consider
Sense offers AI that can automate the cooking and baking hefty renovations to turn human-run locations autonomous.
systems by recognizing the food put into the cooking equip-
ment and automatically launching the correct preparation.
From Matradee—using lidar to carry food and work around

humans—to Servi—serving food and drinks—to Cecilia—
speaking 40 languages and serving up to 120 drinks in Is-
rael—robots are automating more functions in restaurants
and QSRs.

EVERYWHERE Like other areas of the industry, voice ordering is becoming

more integrated in the food ordering process and will be-
Ordering systems now need to be integrated into more lo-
cations and be interoperable so that restaurants and QSRs
ORDERING AND come ubiquitous. SoundHound’s new partnership with Or-

acle will further enable voice ordering at more point-of-sale
don’t lose out on patrons who want to conveniently order
from anywhere, even while walking down the street. The
ANYWHERE DELIVERY locations—the platforms use AI to help patrons order and

get information on deliveries and locations. Customers can
granular bifurcation of delivery spots presents both chal-
lenges and opportunities. Customers may expect mobile
dictate their order from Uber Eats to Alexa devices, and then delivery, which means delivery drivers will have to track
ask those devices for delivery updates. Through a partner- customers, versus customers tracking drivers. This reversal
WHAT IT IS ship with Yobe, PLNT Burger uses kiosks with voice order- of roles means that customers will share new forms of data
ing to ease how patrons order. Grubbrr, a Florida company that could help autonomous restaurants or mobile loca-
Customers can order food for that offers self-ordering systems, claims that AI in kiosks tions to serve those areas. Voice biometrics could become
can actually increase the amount of money patrons spend, more important for verification services, with customers
delivery almost anywhere now, which has been corroborated by other studies. expecting you to recognize their voice and have their order
especially with new tracking For deliveries, Whataburger partnered with geofencing pro-
ready based on them saying hello. While this type of data
could give businesses more data to know their customer’s
software and apps. This trend vider Radar to enable the QSR to know when patrons arrive needs, it also presents many issues for collection, storage,
to pick up their food. Domino’s launched its Pinpoint De-
includes voice ordering, the use of livery system, which lets patrons select their exact delivery
and privacy. Restaurants will need to establish guidelines
for where ordering should occur, and might need to have
kiosks, live tracking of deliveries, location, expanding the chain’s delivery offerings. Flytrex new technology that helps resolve background noises and
could help with this endeavor as well, as it is offering drone garbled messages, or that can offer live translation for
and new forms of delivery for delivery to US suburbs for any need, including coffee. Alter- customers who speak a different language. With drones and
restaurants and QSRs. natives to major delivery platforms are also expanding. Co-
ca-Cola’s minority stake acquisition of Thrive in India sig-
food preparation bringing food directly to the consumer,
this also shifts service experiences, which have largely yet
nals that more restaurants in that region will soon be able to be defined, and could be a way to differentiate these new
to create their own direct-ordering platform. And with apps offerings in the market.
like Wonder, cooking can also happen nearer to customers,
even just outside their home in a van. In an interesting take
on ordering, a new app launched at CES lets you designate a
time and a place to use a nearby restaurant’s bathroom.

MONITORING FOOD Increasingly, companies are interested in where their food

waste ends up. Berlin-based Choco’s streamlines the food
ESG expectations are impacting businesses in a variety
of ways, with many responding by publicly sharing their
WASTE & IMPACT ordering process, and monitors waste and food inventory.
Other companies are using blockchain technology; Con-
procurement, labor practices, and waste management.
These systems and technology tools can help food produc-
necting Food uses food traceability data to track products ers, restaurants, and QSRs provide data to prove they’re
going through the production line to audit the food, manage being responsible with their food waste. They can help now,
suppliers, and create a digital twin of the product, all with but could ultimately be disrupted with the advent of more
the aim of increasing consumer confidence. Currently used additively made food sources and materials, and it will be
WHAT IT IS by Wendy’s and McDonald’s, Bolivian software company important to watch how restaurants balance these forces.
Mojix uses blockchain to automate food safety compliance, In the near term, these new systems also offer opportuni-
As climate change creates manage expiration dates, and reduce waste. It covers the ties for cost savings that can assist in addressing overuse
lifecycle of an item to help provide traceability throughout and over preparation of food. In many regions, there are new
fear that food resources will be the supply chain. regulations and requirements for this type of monitoring,
disrupted, many are focusing on Therma provides services more directly to restaurants by
and these tools can provide the data needed to show that
companies are in compliance. For companies looking to tap
being more responsible with their offering IoT sensors for 24/7 temperature monitoring and into younger generations that care more about responsible
an app that can help reduce waste and improve food safety.
food waste. Many restaurant Brands including TGI Fridays, Domino’s, and Wyndham
consumption, addressing these issues will prove to be a
beneficial marketing tool.
industry-focused startups Hotels use Therma to help protect their food inventory.
Orbisk, a Dutch startup, puts a camera above a trash can to
are providing platforms for scan waste to help restaurants know their disposal pat-
monitoring and mitigating food terns. Kilmato, based in Sweden, helps provide more data
transparency for menu items: Their web-based app allows
waste. restaurants and QSRs to calculate the climate impact of
their food and dishes and then label them to tell customers
the carbon impact of their food. While focused on the gro-
cery store rather than the restaurant, new AI scanners from
a Dutch entrepreneur let customers scan avocados to see if
they are ready for consumption.

IMMERSIVE Dining experiences continue to push the boundaries with

more immersive experiences that have become their own
As restaurants look to differentiate themselves by using
technology to replace human-to-human contact with hu-
EXPERIENCES version of performance art. Technology enables these

experiences to move beyond just tasting, to even include
man-to-automated contact, these immersive experiences
could become smaller in scale to still allow for more en-
using food to experience emotions. Philadelphia, the cream gaged experiences and storytelling. Along with more inter-
cheese maker, created a sensorial experience that uses active social media marketing and selling, these immersive
visuals and sound, along with cheese dishes, to let custom- experiences could offer customization through social sell-
ers experience a range of feelings and different emotions. ing, which can provide new data to help companies adapt
WHAT IT IS In Silicon Valley, iChina is debuting the first headset-free to market trends. They also provide revenue diversification
VR dining experience that will pair visuals based on the as restaurateurs and even QSRs can separately sell both
Eatertainment has evolved from food that’s served. At the restaurant Ultraviolet, diners will food and experiences. Immersive experiences are currently
enjoy 20 courses throughout the evening while the room focused on high-end dining locations but could grow and
breweries to be either mobile or shifts with projected images, changes in lighting, music, scale to augment QSRs, or even autonomous restaurants.
permanent dining experiences and scents. Inside Hard Rock Hotel Ibiza’s restaurant, you’ll However, focusing on the storytelling and the “why” behind
find not only chefs but also directors and musicians. The the experience will be key for companies to get this right.
that use technology to elevate the guests will explore various places, times, and emotions over Some experiences may not make sense, especially if they
room, table, and decor. three hours through a VR headset at one of the world’s most
expensive restaurants at around 1,800 pounds ($2,345) per
seem extravagant given current world issues like war or
climate change. But for hospitality venues looking to attract
person. Tablemotion Studios is already known for its experi- conferences or companies looking for new ways to impress
ences at the SLS Hotel Beverly Hills and Four Seasons Hotel clients, these offerings could become a norm once they be-
Austin, but the company will debut a new interactive expe- come scalable—and extend to digital wellness offerings at
rience at The Culinary Institute of America at Copia in Napa both restaurants and other hospitality locations.
and the Ritz-Carlton at Half Moon Bay in California. This new
experience took over 50,000 hours to create; it uses visuals
with 4K resolution and laser projectors.

SCENARIOS
SCENARIO YEAR 2027
Eating Darkness
As autonomous QSRs have taken over in fast-casual dining, Eating Darkness experiences began to dominate
some traditional dining establishments. Many restaurants realized they needed to counterpoint to the tech-driv-
en experiences many diners chose throughout the week; it started with lowering lighting levels over the course of
the meal until the guests were eating in complete darkness but soon became augmented with technology that
focused on visual well-being and comfort that increased the importance of the food the patron was eating. Now,
many patrons choose Eating Darkness as part of their reservation, which means that they are offered a light-
weight diminished reality band to don as they sit. They use it to choose the level of activity they see around them
throughout the course of the meal, and their awareness will slowly fade to focus on just the food. Some describe
it as a quiet hug and a shift away from the hustle and bustle of the world around them. The band facilitates
the guest’s order through voice ordering, and then provides a choice of ASMR noises, which also grow fainter
throughout the meal. While this is good for single diners, cordoned-off diminished reality rooms are available for
groups that provide the same experience, but are based on the group’s shared preferences.

ENGINEERED FOOD Many companies are providing engineered food and meals
to both restaurants and individual customers. In 2019,
With personalized nutrition and food allergies increasingly
in focus and a concern, 3D-printed foods offer new possi-
AND MEALS Foodadvisor began giving customers the ability to see what
they are eating and to analyze its nutritional value. It also
bilities for alternatives and food prep. This can help reduce
potential for cross contamination, as long as the materials
provides customized plans and advice on how to meet per- used for the printed food are managed and monitored as
sonal goals. SnapCalorie, a startup founded by the creator well. The challenge will be the visual aesthetics of these
of Google Lens, plans to do something similar by using AI to foods and consumers accepting that their traditional
estimate the caloric content of food based on a photo. What cheesecake or meats will look different but taste the same.
WHAT IT IS makes this app different from the rest is that it claims it This is ultimately something that should be consumer test-
can measure portion sizes. ed and trialed, from which companies should create large-
As a means for better health and Within 3D-printed food, several companies are working to
scale marketing campaigns. Since engineered meals and
foods also offer more sustainability and nutritional capa-
sustainability, many restaurants bring engineered food to the mass market. Vienna-based
bility, if they can be printed to taste the same as unhealthy
company Mycorena has launched its whole-cut vegan salm-
are working to incorporate and on filet. This filet relies on new technology from Revo Foods
or nostalgic foods, they could potentially make unhealthy
food less attractive. The control of taste will become the key
offer lab-grown and engineered that uses extrusion methods to integrate fats into fibrous
proteins in a first-ever continuous production process for
driving factor for success or failure, meaning customers will
food. Some foods and meals mass production. Researchers at Columbia University have
want their dish to taste different than what their neighbor
might be tasting. Such an achievement would unlock new
combined 3D printing and laser technology to create and
are being engineered for bake the first 3D-printed cheesecake; while this technology potential for customized experiences and foods. While the
culinary world is constantly trying to innovate, this offers
specific customer engagement is not new, the researchers are considering what it would
a new arena for new types of chefs and business offerings.
mean to create recipes like this for the masses to be able to
experiences that go beyond download and use. Open Meals first began producing bio- Scientists and material fabricators could become the culi-
nary geniuses of tomorrow.
dining. metric 3D-printed meals in 2019, but it is looking to expand
with a fully autonomous restaurant with their products by
2035—and with the possibility of AI-controlled 3D printers,
could be available as a common kitchen appliance by 2040.
Other foods being 3D-printed include chocolate, pasta,
chicken, and steak.

VERIFIED LOYALTY Many loyalty programs are utilizing technology for increased
engagement, and blockchain technology is at the forefront
These new loyalty programs can obviously help increase
customer engagement and retention, and can also provide
PROGRAMS for many companies. One new offering is Blackbird: a loyalty

program that gives partner restaurants a digital card to
an attractive experience to draw in new customers. The data
and insights on customer preferences collected will be a
track and verify when customers visit and what they eat on critical component that companies will be able to under-
Coinbase’s Base blockchain. These programs allow restau- stand and influence. The programs can also potentially
rants to create any kind of loyalty program they want: They reduce administrative costs as they become fully automat-
can be free and help track the number of visits, or paid and ed. The use of blockchain also provides consistent trans-
WHAT IT IS used to offer perks and experiences. KitchData, known to parency, which will build trust among customers—but it will
enable delivery-first food brands, is now offering their cli- be key for companies to discuss and understand what level
Digital loyalty programs are ents the ability to create NFTs, SMS crypto wallets, and other of transparency will be required. Past attempts at loyalty
Web3 offerings through Harmony.one’s blockchain. programs should also be a consideration because what may
increasingly looking to blockchain not have worked in the past may become functional today
Companies are now exploring facial recognition technology
technology for verification to create more personalized experiences for loyal custom-
with these augmented offerings. The verification offered
through blockchain technology further enables customers
of customer spending and ers. Diners can choose to participate, and, in doing so, be to have a frictionless dining experience, with the goal of cre-
recognized when they arrive at the restaurant. FaceME is
offering new rewards for those one such platform that can offer this to restaurants, and it
ating diners who not only purchase food from the restaurant
but also visit the restaurant’s physical location.
engagements. can be integrated into kiosks and other customer touch-
points. Tattle, a customer experience improvement plat-
form, is working on new ways restaurant companies can get
data from their customers by offering programs to incentiv-
ize customers to scan their receipts.

CURATED TASTING Personalization is growing in the restaurant industry, with

AI offering new ways to customize your dining experience.
With curated tastings comes the opportunity for generating
new experiences and customer retention through positive
Hungryroot, based in New York City, uses a quiz to identify and personalized foods. The personalization of flavor means
what food you should order from the grocery store. AI plat- food may become individualized, similar to how engineered
form Nutrios creates a custom page that then offers curated food flavors could become personalized; this could make it
meal plans and personalized food recommendations. AI is challenging to create a menu, unless you use AI or other au-
also being used to make menus better. Lunchbox is a tech tomation tools. Eventually, we may see menuless offerings,
startup that uses AI to generate food images for restaurants where the menu is never posted or decided until the cus-
WHAT IT IS to incorporate into their menu. Focused only on the restau- tomer walks in to be served. All of these developments com-
rant industry, website platform company Superorder has bined could become problematic for the back-of-house to
AI and other technology are worked with over 1,500 restaurants to create a website based create nuanced flavors—again, unless the capability is tech-
on typing in a simple query. nologically enabled. These new additions to the tech stack
being used to craft menus and will be hard to implement unless costs are shared or the
Robotics may soon offer more personalized food that tastes
meals customized to individual best for consumers. A recent patent is exploring using
company has deep resources. However, many demographics
share the same taste profiles, which could be a way to target
customer preferences. AI to determine when a dish has met the right flavor re- the implementation of certain curated tastings and menus.
quirements using particle data. Beko and the University of Globally, this would obviously change and be a challenge
Cambridge trained a robot chef to know if food was too salty. as well. Companies should also prepare for a future when
The robot mimics how humans chew food in order to taste ratings of personalized flavors become as influential as a re-
the food in a similar manner. You can now also taste your TV. view of the experience—the focus will shift away from styles
A Japanese professor created a lickable TV screen that can or cuisine categories toward new flavor categories.
imitate different food flavors; this comes after a researcher
at Meiji University created a tool that allows a user to taste
anything they want without having to eat the food. NTT Doco-
mo, Meiji University, and H2L have also developed a unique
technology that allows people to share tastes digitally.

SCENARIOS
SCENARIO YEAR 2026
Your Chicken Soup for the Cold

Hello viewers, it’s Chef Gordon Ramsay’s avatar. Welcome to today’s AR news segment, projected by your desk lamp spon-
sor. Our topic for you curated listeners who checked you like food news is about another food fad. In 2026, the latest craze
to hit dining since butter boards and mood foods is chicken soup. People are absolutely going mad over chicken soup,
lining up at any mobile pickup window they can find, or rushing out when their wearable pings that a new location has
been set up near them. You may be confused, as many of us were at first, why chicken soup would be a fad-worthy food.
It’s because of the brilliant integration of medicine into Campbell’s freshly printed soup paste. It sounds quite dismal but
is actually on point because it tastes exactly how you remember soup from your childhood.
Yes, you heard me right.
When Campbell’s entered the mobile QSR market with this product a year ago, I thought they must have lost their heads,
but I was quickly corrected when I went for my first tasting. After a quick lick of the lickable menu, which analyzed my sa-
liva memory, I spoke my order to the menu. It analyzed my voice to tell if I was sick, and then gave me a hot cup of curat-
ed soup designed to keep me well during cold and flu season. With the first sip, I could instantly tell this would be a hit.
It felt like the recipe my mum used to feed me when I was a young lad. It created such a strong memory that I instantly
went back to order the Campbell’s Soup Dropper for all of my restaurants. The taste alone made it a fad, but the benefits
of not having to take ill-tasting medicine when you are sick have also got customers salivating for this soup. It has be-
come a bestseller for any restaurant that installs the Dropper.

AUTHORS &
CONTRIBUTORS


ERICA PETERSON
SARAH JOHNSON

SELECTED
SOURCES

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cial-recognition-prod- ed-dining-experiences-de- Chiswick.” Dezeen, Decem- 13, 2023.www.snohetta.com/. Zhan, Lingxue, et al. “Progress on
“Lab-Grown Meat Is on the ber 23, 2021. www.dezeen. Image Analytics: Implications
uct-to-help-self-excluded-gam- but-across-united-states/.
Way.” The Takeout, June 23, com/2021/12/23/net-zero-ho- Soothe. “Soothe Launches New for Tourism and Hospitality Re-
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Food via Underground Tun- rant-technology/2023/sweet- an AI Chatbot That Takes Your

SUPPLY CHAIN • LOGISTICS

INDUSTRY SUPPLY CHAIN & LOGISTICS
TABLE OF CONTENTS
883 Top Headlines 898 ESG Tracking and Declarations 912 Authors
884 State of Play 899 Omnichannel Management 914 Selected Sources
Platforms
885 Key Events
900 Diversifying the Procurement
Process
Developments
901 Last-Mile Solutions
887 Why Supply Chain &
Logistics Trends Matter 902 Smart Ports
to Your Organization 903 Scenario: The OmniVision
888 Opportunities and Threats Chain
889 Investments and Actions 904 Manufacturing & Distribution

To Consider Enhancements
890 Central Themes 905 Continuous Additive

Manufacturing
892 Ones To Watch
906 Smart Warehouses
893 Important Terms
907 Nano-Fulfillment Centers
894 Supply Chain & Logistics
Management 908 Intelligent Packaging
895 Augmented & Automated 909 Autonomous Cobots for

Processes Warehousing and Delivery
896 Real-Time Optimization 910 Scenario: The Chroma

Information System
897 Visibility Track and Trace
911 Scenario: Perpetual Motion
Manufacturing

TOP HEADLINES 01 Fulfillment Companies Hire Robots

Human workers in warehouses are increasingly finding themselves working
alongside robotic workers.
Warehouses hire robot
workers as nearshoring 02 Mexico Becomes a Nearshoring Target
drives growth and Exports from countries experiencing nearshoring to their regions, like Mexico,
continue to grow.
manufacturing moves
off-land. Driverless 03 Driverless Deliveries Are a Reality
Automated delivery is now an expectation with companies like EASE Logistics
deliveries and innovative piloting platooning in trucking transportation.
eco-friendly packaging
are also emerging. 04 Packaging Is Not Just for Wrapping
Packaging patents are trying to make disposal a more eco-friendly process—
and even edible.
05 Manufacturing Moves Off-Land

Through ongoing research in additive manufacturing, researchers have
found ways to manufacture more effectively in space and under water.

STATE After the pressure and volatility of 2023, the supply chain, logistics, and manufactur-
ing industries are experiencing relative stabilization while dealing with ever-changing
consumer demands, climate change disruptions, and labor shortages.
OF PLAY Illness and reduced staff are major reasons for delays and bottlenecks in supply
chains. A concerted effort to attract new talent include creating better working con-
ditions, training opportunities, and innovative recruitment strategies—some studies
estimate that 87% of companies are trying such tactics to attract new workers. Con-
sumers returning to in-store shopping have increased expectations for seamless and
rapid fulfillment services like next-day delivery based on their online shopping experi-
ences, and companies are looking to enhance their last-mile delivery platforms.
Spearheading a New Era of Investors and consumers keep pushing for supply chains to become greener, with
Advanced Automation and a significant percentage of companies feeling the pressure to reduce their carbon
footprint. As more companies—over 40%—make investments in electrification, re-
Crystal-Clear Visibility source management, and more sustainable practices, this will continue to grow. With
2023 being the hottest year on record, many of these industries are also experiencing
disruption due to extreme weather and looking to diversify sourcing and procurement,
along with reshoring, to address the issue. However, delays at ports and limited sup-
plies of raw materials have combined into a worrisome challenge for manufacturing.
Demand for logistics and manufacturing space continues to increase yet soaring
construction costs are a barrier.
Many of these challenges are putting the focus on automation and the use of tech-
nology for greater efficiency and visibility. The integration of the data needed to make
automated decisions still proves challenging, and much of the data remains siloed.
The largest push across supply chains and logistics for artificial intelligence and ma-
chine learning has been in inventory and network optimization, as well as warehouse
resource management.

KEY EVENTS
APRIL 25, 2023 JUNE 15, 2023 A U G U S T 9, 2 0 2 3
Colors determines quality Delivery robots require no humans Revolutionizing automated routes
Researchers at the University of Cartken’s delivery robots can now The EPG-Greenplan partnership reaches a
Genoa are working on packaging use AI for full Level 4 autonomy on milestone when logistics provider DANX
that changes color depending on sidewalks. starts implementing Greenplan’s innovative
the quality of the product inside. “overlapping” algorithm in Denmark.
M AY 1 7, 2 0 2 3 JUNE 28, 2023
Driverless deliveries take off Parabola lands funding

Ohio-based EASE Logistics announces its Parabola makes automating manual processes
launch of the first autonomous trucking easy to manage, regardless of a team’s technology
haul in the US. proficiency.


ON-DEMAND DRIVES INSTANTANEOUS Personalized Delivery Gets Automated Climate Insurance for Protection Combating a Skills Drought
PROCESSES
As delivery routes and last-mile deliveries As climate change continues to be a disrup- Increased automation and use of virtual
Change—whether from consumer de-
continue to increase in speed and complexity, tion, logistics providers will explore how they agents raise the need for workers to to know
mands, new technologies, or global automation will let logistics companies cre- can insure against extreme weather events. how to manage new tech-enabled work and
shifts—is the one constant in the supply ate an intricate web of delivery offerings that These costs could be passed along to con- tasks. This upskilling could be done through
chain and logistics industries. It’s what can be unique to each customer. sumers who choose goods from more volatile remote learning and working opportunities.
leads to new offerings and services, such regions.
as the industries’ need to respond to the
increasing expectations for on-demand
and instantaneous deliveries, commu- Virtual Agents Take Over Instant Manufacturing Meets Demands Verification Based on Values
nication, production, and reports. Inno- With workers continuing to grow in scarcity, With manufacturing locations moving closer Global conflicts, combined with consumers
vations in tracking and tracing goods, virtual agents will take over back-of-house to the consumer and e-commerce increasing, and businesses wary of supporting govern-
automation, and expedited and near- work in the warehouse. These virtual agents manufacturers need to consider how to create ments with values antithetical to their own
shored manufacturing are happening, will soon be able to oversee themselves and products in the exact spot as their consum- will increase demand for verification of supply
their cobot workers, reducing the need for ers. chains. Granular data collection and transmis-
but attention is still needed to address
human intervention. sion will enable this shift in transparency.
the shortages in capital and talent. Proper
investment to meet the gaps through
technology will be expensive, and could 11 MACRO SOURCES OF DISRUPTION
create a burden many smaller companies
cannot bear unless they create a clear
strategic roadmap. With talent droughts
occuring in all three they will have to keep
competing for talent and seek out work- Technology Media & Demographics Environment Government Public Health Education Geopolitics Infrastructure Economy Wealth
ers willing to be upskilled. Telecom Distribution

WHY SUPPLY CHAIN, LOGISTICS & MANUFACTURING TRENDS MATTER

TO YOUR ORGANIZATION
Track and Trace for Streamlining Being Resource Communicating in Continuous New Management
Climate Accountability Management Platforms Resilient Real Time Production Needed
As companies collect It can be hard to While procurement gets As consumers and While e-commerce As cobots more closely
more data around ensure multiple disrupted by climate businesses continue continues to increase, resemble the typical
their manufacturing management platforms change and geopolitical to monitor their goods companies need to worker, human managers
processes, procurement are interoperable, and conflicts, diversifying and orders as they move ensure the production of might need new skills
procedures, and logistics that their data can the procurement process through the supply chain goods isn’t interrupted to manage them.
for transporting goods, be utilized across the and nearshoring can help and then through logistics or stopped. Continuous Autonomous cobots can
they will be able to system. An omnichannel mitigate future incidents. channels, the ability to production through already travel without
create more in-depth platform synthesizes and This will ultimately benefit communicate changes additive manufacturing colliding into racks and
reports to provide the streamlines processes the bottom line through in real time will offer a can offer help in this other workers, but this
level of transparency and information into customer satisfaction; sense of stability and area, and also sometimes technology will need
many governments and one concentrated tool, however the upfront transparency. Ultimately, reduce the raw materials to be monitored and
consumers require. This to establish consistent investment costs need to companies need to decide needed to produce the probably further updated
task can eventually be workflows. be charted quickly. on the method for such goods. as warehouses undergo
automated. communication so the further developments.
information is clear and
not burdensome.

Data silos will hinder the flow of information, and ultimately slow the Automation could augment production to help create goods more efficiently
automation process. Companies that have already managed to bring all and deliver them faster. This can also offset talent shortages and help reduce
of their data streams to one platform will have a leg up, and their data costly errors that lead to recalls. It also helps with future preparedness.
integration will support better decision-making.
Greater visibility means more efficient management of goods. Consequently,
Lack of raw materials will become a pressing issue for manufacturers that companies can optimize their inventory and thereby reduce the need for storage
are not diversifying their procurement channels and taking climate change space. It also offers new ways to connect with customers and potential ways to
issues into account. Related delays will ultimately force customers to
upsell services.
reconsider who they will purchase from.
Greater customer personalization can lead to renewed interest in lagging
As delivery routes get more complicated, they could be both too difficult for
human delivery workers and too costly for autonomous delivery. If companies products. It also offers higher profit margins for goods that can be efficiently
don’t find the right balance, competitors will win out on savings realized from delivered. With more engagement and satisfaction, personalization data can
overlapping last-mile delivery routes. also be leveraged to develop better products.
Until it’s fully automated, data collection could lead to bottlenecks and Amid talent shortages, staff augmentation and upskilling will create greater
time-consuming processes. However, the granular level of data that needs loyalty and better performance from employees, which ultimately impacts
to be collected cannot be hurried, especially as new EU regulations require profitability and productivity. Augmentation will also improve future flexibility
presentation of the data before allowing the goods to pass through its ports and workforce readiness as new technologies develop.
or be sold to consumers.
New forms of verification offer enhanced security and reinforces visibility and
Tech adoption costs will continue to deter modernization and weaken integrity with clients. As competitors work to mimic products and services,
competitiveness. For companies that are market constrained and too focused this level of verification can help reduce fraud and increase awareness of a
on the bottom line, they may not see the long-term return on investment and company’s specific practices.
miss out on investment opportunities.

1 2 3 4 5 6
Consider investing in the Upskill talent now so that Begin to investigate which Optimize visibility that Invest in planning for new Use your new data
automation of data collec- they’re ready to meet new cobot works best for you. works for the customer. technologies that allow streams to offer insights
tion and analysis. Prioritize technology needs—which Based on your company’s Cumbersome platforms for better route optimiza- that can improve your
the investment based on could include how to man- size and scope of pack- with confusing reports only tion and last-mile delivery sustainability and respon-
what tasks are being done age or repair new equip- aging and picking, this add to the overload of data deployment. Watch reg- sibility messaging to your
in-house on the preferred ment or cobots. This could technology could serve most customers have to ulations on drones and customers. However, this
platform, to avoid creating become a new pathway to different needs. Include slog through. Use data to other forms of autonomous needs to be done in a way
two sources of data that long-term careers and op- strategic plans for future prioritize the channels your delivery, to help decide that is personalized to
cannot be integrated. Such portunities in your company. growth in this decision, or customers want and help which areas to invest in their needs, which means
automation opens up more where staffing shortages them understand how to first. Exploring both options more micro-level and tar-
reporting and analysis of are affecting your supply gain insights from the new now can prepare you to geted communications.
current processes for a chains or manufacturers visibility. act when those regulations
strong understanding of the most. come to fruition.
what technology imple-
mentation should be next.

CENTRAL THEMES
Automating Decisions and Processes Closing the Last-Mile Gap Authenticating Provenance of Goods
For companies working toward automation of deci- Companies in Europe, parts of Africa such as Keyna, Customers and businesses can watch their goods
sion-making and processes some are taking steps to and India are creating alternatives for more efficient throughout the entire process—from the time raw
bring their data into one knowledge bank. With vari- last-mile solutions. Bangalore has seen the largest materials are picked up until they reach their final
ables like traffic jams, extreme weather, and fuel costs growth. With consumers demanding delivery within destination. Through new interconnected systems
always at play, the logistics sector is most concerned minutes to very granular locations, it’s become a com- that provide real-time data, every step can be verified
with creating more efficient pathways for transporting petitive imperative to innovate this expensive portion and recorded. Businesses and customers can possibly
goods. Progress in route optimization, coupled with of logistics, with the ultimate goal of delivering value intervene if one step doesn’t align with their needs, val-
autonomous vehicles, includes greater automated and speed to end consumers. Advances in AI for route ues, or expectations. Ensuring authenticity and com-
decisions on the flow of goods with minimal human in- planning and altering routes in real time are providing pliance through this visibility is crucial and is happen-
tervention, and will ultimately lead to cost reductions greater service and transparency for customers. Along ing through the use of new labels, product passports,
due to fuel efficiency and less human error. For supply with electrified transportation, micro-fulfillment cen- and sensors. Also crucial is how the collected data gets
chains, automation of the routing and sourcing of raw ters are making progress on new last-mile methods. managed and used. It can help prevent future bottle-
materials, demand forecasting, tracking of inventory As companies experiment with using larger fleets of necks if it can be integrated into platforms that offer
levels, and accelerating response times continue to drones that can handle increasingly heavy items, this the required visibility.
be top ways to drive down costs and meet customer technology is combining with platooning efforts that
expectations. In manufacturing, companies are focus- could create swarm delivery for the last mile.
ing their automation efforts on being able to make
real-time process adjustments.

CENTRAL THEMES
Improving Warehouse Efficiency Hiring Robotic Staff The Intelligent Manufacturing Evolution
In warehouses, delays can come from many sources Each year, cobots become smarter, more autonomous, Manufacturing continues to transform from a tradi-
such as injury or unexpected surges in demand. Re- and more prolific, and this year is no exception. In fact, tional labor-intensive practice to a more sophisticated
sponding to this risk, warehouses continue to become the first humanoid robot factory is set to open and and interconnected system. Recent advances intend
automated, dark, more connected and, in some cases, produce 10,000 robots a year. These robots that work to create higher levels of productivity and efficiency,
smaller. Whether they’re using drones to scan packag- alongside human workers are being trained on more but they’re also addressing sustainability require-
es and track inventory, automated picking, cobots that data that allows them to adapt and work around their ments and enabling product personalization. The new
package the pallets, or augmented wearables for work- human counterparts. Developers have focused on tools and technology can spot flaws in products before
er safety, warehouses are becoming more efficient. improving cobot safety measures, so a cobot knows they leave the floor, greatly increasing consistency for
This efficiency is augmented by sensors that can tell if what to do if it bumps into an unexpected obstacle or goods. Along with quality control, sensors and digital
goods have spoiled or there is damage within the con- person. These cobots mitigate potentially harmful work twins are getting companies to focus on predictive
tainer. With such tools, tracking inventory and manag- for humans by either augmenting the human body or maintenance by reducing downtime during large runs
ing inventory levels is becoming increasingly efficient replicating repetitive tasks that could cause future or times of high demand. Additive manufacturing also
and more manageable, and a synergistic ecosystem injuries. Some of the augmented wearables can also allows for the integration of new materials that are
is developing, where each technology reinforces the offer predictive pathways through the warehouse to en- themselves smarter and more connected. And it helps
other. Additive manufacturing also helps create more sure worker safety. As autonomy continues to grow in reduce the number of parts needed for production of
efficiency by freeing up more space for storage of parts robots and transportation, this trend will create new- a good, which can streamline production and reduce
only when those parts are needed. found efficiencies and productivity, particularly during waste as only the parts needed are produced.
peak demand seasons.

ONES TO WATCH
Dr. Alexandra Brintrup, professor at the Ieva Meidute-Kavaliauskiene, head of the Sachin Sharma, doctoral student at West-
University of Cambridge, for her work in data Business Technologies and Entrepreneurship ern Michigan University, for his contribu-
revolution within supply chain networks. Department at Vilnius Gediminas Technical tions to the research on autonomous driving
University, for her work in using neural net- technologies.
S. Vijay, assistant professor at Arasu Engi- works within the supply chain.
neering College, for his work on autonomous Zachary Asher, assistant professor of
drones. Sehinde Afolayan, founder of Haul247, for mechanical and aerospace engineering at
his work in creating an end-to-end logistics Western Michigan University, for his work on
Màrius Montmany and Oriol Hernandez, platform in Nigeria. pavement markers supporting autonomous
co-founders of Rever, for their work on in- driving in tough conditions in remote areas.
stant refunds and label generation. Jörg Lamprecht, executive chairman and
founder of Dedrone, for his work on a global Dr. Emma Yang, assistant professor at The
Arti Kütt, CEO of Cleveron, for his work on network of urban drone detection services. University of Texas at Arlington, for her work
parcel robots and lockers. on hybrid additive-subtractive manufactur-
Antonio Spears, co-CEO at City Global, for ing equipment.
Paola Lova, assistant professor at the Uni- his work on augmented reality technology in
versity of Genoa, for her work on intelligent product development. Dr. Raymond Weitekamp, founder of Poly-
packaging. Spectra, for his work on generating stronger
Mor M. Peretz, Dr. Alon Cervera, and Dr. Eli 3D printed materials.
Ioannis Kaloskampis, David Bradnum, Abramov, co-founders of CaPow, for their work
Charles McGowan, Paige Hunter, and in bringing perpetual power to autonomous Pascal Bensoussan, chief product officer at
Melissa Bui, all of the UK’s Data Science robots. Ivalua, for his work in AI-powered contract
Campus, for their work using natural lan- digitization and purchasing optimization.
guage processing and transformer-based Ali Ekti, researcher at Department of Energy’s
deep learning models to construct supply Oak Ridge National Laboratory, for his work in
chain networks from unstructured text. the development of low-powered sensors for
pavement markers.

IMPORTANT TERMS
Additive manufacturing Logistics Transportation management system (TMS)
A manufacturing process of creating objects by The detailed coordination and implementation A system that plans, executes, and optimizes the
adding material layer by layer. It is synonymous of complex operations involving the movement physical movement of goods, both incoming and
with 3D printing but includes using reactive mate- of goods, services, or information from origin to outgoing.
rials for 4D printing. destination.
Warehouse management system (WMS)
Customer relationship management (CRM) Order management system (OMS) A system that supports and optimizes warehouse
A tool that manages a company’s interactions with A system that facilitates and manages the order or distribution center management.
current and potential customers. fulfillment process.
Enterprise resource planning (ERP) Product lifecycle management (PLM)

Integrates all facets of an operation, including de- A software solution that manages the entire life-
velopment, manufacturing, sales, and marketing. cycle of a product, from inception, through engi-
neering design and manufacturing, to service and
Environmental, social, and governance (ESG) disposal.
Refers to the three central factors in measuring the
sustainability and societal impact of an invest- Procurement
ment in a company. The process of sourcing and acquiring the goods
and services a company needs to fulfill its busi-
Fulfillment centers ness model. It involves the negotiation of prices,
Warehouse facilities used to store, package, and terms, and contracts for purchasing.
ship consumer goods.
Supply chain
Last-mile delivery The entire system of producing and delivering a
The final step of the delivery process where a prod- product or service, from the very beginning stage of
uct moves from a transportation hub to the final sourcing the raw materials, to the final delivery of
delivery destination, typically a personal residence. the product or service, to end consumers.

SUPPLY CHAIN
& LOGISTICS
MANAGEMENT

AUGMENTED AI-driven supply chain management models can opt for either a
data-consolidation approach, by harnessing extensive training
Implementing augmented and automated processes significantly
diminishes manual labor and human error, which translates into
& AUTOMATED
data sources, or use multiple specialized models tailored to spe- substantial cost reductions, greater efficiency, and an optimiza-
cific domains. Companies such as Mariner and Landing AI provide tion of resources. It can also help make better, data-informed de-
solutions for manufacturing—including defect detection—which cisions. And by reducing errors and omissions, potential setbacks
PROCESSES work with limited and imperfect data sets. This approach differs
from big data solutions from providers such as Kitov and Cognex,
in the supply chain can be minimized. As access to automation
grows, employees will gain the sense that they can more effectively
which work by ingesting huge quantities of data. contribute to growing the company and the bottom line. And auto-
mation can also prevent downtime-related losses by forecasting
WHAT IT IS Parabola, a Series B startup, uses AI to automate complex man- the least-disruptive times to conduct maintenance while extend-
ual processes through familiar spreadsheet functionality, and is ing the life of equipment through proper maintenance. Using au-
Supply chain and logistics usable by teams of all technical aptitudes. In the realm of cloud- tomation to select suppliers could further increase efficiency but
based solutions, Adiona has created an Optimization Software- also lead to questions as to why those companies were selected in
providers are continuing to as-a-Service (OSaaS) that helps businesses improve their logistic the first place. Defining the parameters for AI’s selection criteria
processes while cutting costs.
harness AI-enhanced automation will be incredibly important. By optimizing routes and reducing
unnecessary mileage, companies can reduce fuel consumption
Going even further, researchers at the University of Cambridge are
and AI-augmented decision developing a platform that can make decisions and autonomously
and lower carbon emissions, aligning with the growing importance
of sustainability in the supply chain and logistics industries.
support solutions to stay ahead act on behalf of stakeholders in supply chains. This system has
virtual agents that bridge internet of things data and machine
and capture value right from day learning, possessing the ability to select suppliers, procure goods,
and respond to unplanned events through pricing adjustments
one of implementation. and automated rerouting. And Carrier Logistics Inc. has introduced
AI-driven routing logic and planning optimization with a unique
focus on terminal optimization for trucking fleets. The software
features the ability to automatically plan shipments for every
customer at every terminal, accounting for various factors like
equipment, time windows, and traffic.

REAL-TIME Real-time supply chain optimization offers immediate insights,

letting companies improve efficiency, reduce costs, optimize
Real-time solutions make it so companies can adapt to chang-
ing conditions, ensuring seamless operations and minimizing
OPTIMIZATION
routes, and adapt to changing conditions. London-based Sensat disruptions while containing costs. Businesses that embrace
creates digital twins for physical infrastructure; the digital replica real-time optimization can consistently monitor and adjust oper-
updates in real time with automatic drone updates, camera feeds, ations, which will help them maintain high standards of perfor-
and live data. Moving from visualization to real-time control, mance and increase customer satisfaction. Innovations that solve
French company Zozio’s ROBIN presents a real-time SaaS using routing problems or merge routes will achieve new efficiencies
IoT trackers to monitor product and equipment locations at every and previously unrealized areas of potential. This kind of dynamic
production stage. routing could also offer the ability to create more dynamic pric-
WHAT IT IS
ing instead of fixed rates, depending on the level of efficiency
Aera Technology has partnered with Colgate-Palmolive, aiming to that can be achieved. Because fuel is one of the biggest costs to
Companies can increase the provide a single source of truth for data across multiple sources, these industries, this kind of optimization could result in almost
predict optimal product allocation, and prioritize fulfillment and immediate savings. But these real-time solutions can also dovetail
control of the flow of goods, safety stock demand. to ensure transportation professionals do not exceed their allotted
maximize fuel efficiency, and Fleetroot’s IoT platform offers real-time tracking, route optimiza-
hours while providing greater insights on how they can maximize
time on the road. Various conditions in the future such as sales,
tion, and order management for fleets. In the realm of real-time
increase sustainability when they fleet management, Nvidia’s cuOpt, an accelerated optimization en-
holidays, product runs, extreme weather, and traffic due to aging
infrastructure could all be alleviated through the predictive plan-
are able to optimize routes in real gine, can solve complex routing problems with subsecond solver
response times for dynamic rerouting, job scheduling, and robotic
ning these platforms offer.
time, while still delivering their simulations. It achieves world-record accuracy with a 2.98% error
gap on the Gehring & Homberger benchmark.
goods on time.
Bettermile’s cloud-based logistics platform distinguishes itself
with features like real-time tracking, dynamic route optimiza-
tion, and enhanced communication. Notably, it provides tailored
solutions for specialized shipping industries, ensuring secure and
punctual deliveries aligned with industry regulations. Lastly, on
the note of eco-conscious routing, Greenplan stands out with its
ability to optimize routes with a focus on diminishing carbon foot-
print while allowing spontaneous assignments in daily routes.

VISIBILITY TRACK Shipping track and trace is the backbone of modern logistics. In
collaboration with British Telecom, Gorilla Technology Group has
Track and trace solutions are enhancing logistics efficiency and
customer service. Synthetic DNA tags represent a significant
AND TRACE
introduced a container identification and container damage de- advancement in supply chain security, by offering unparalleled
tection solution; this innovation uses AI and machine learning to authenticity verification and protection against counterfeiting,
analyze video footage, identify containers, track movements, and strengthening brand trust and traceability. Potential benefits
detect damages. include improved visibility into the supply chain for customers
and better inventory management for companies. Companies
DB Schenker has introduced ultra-thin tracking labels in part- can reduce excess inventory, lower storage costs, and optimize
nership with Sensos. These disposable labels can be attached to stocking levels based on real-time demand if they properly track
WHAT IT IS containers, pallets, or cartons to enable real-time tracking of ship- their goods. But in the future, the technology could prove problem-
ments across land, air, and ocean transport. They provide location atic as synthetic biology scales and DNA copyrights. The security
Track and trace solutions let and temperature data over the mobile network, ensuring security for tracking will become even more important if supply chains
for valuable consignments. continue to be disrupted, and companies will have to rely on their
organizations and customers customers’ faith in the business to maintain stability. Hacking of
DNA tags and traceability systems represent a novel frontier in
track movement at every stage of supply chain security, offering atypical authenticity verification.
track and trace opens up new forms of digital piracy that should
be a concern.
Applied DNA Sciences employs synthetic DNA tags: Sprayed as a
the supply chain, helping manage fine mist, they can be used for everything from tracking microcir-
uncertainty and disruptions in real cuits for the Department of Defense to tracing cannabis supply
chains, making it a potent tool against counterfeiting. Eurofins
time. and Applied DNA Sciences have further partnered to pioneer a
DNA-based traceability system in the leather supply chain. The
unique molecular signatures of synthetic DNA tags make them
impossible to copy, providing forensic evidence of product authen-
ticity and safeguarding against counterfeit goods.
Continuing the exploration of supply chain security, Swiss startup

ScanTrust combines secure QR codes and business intelligence
software for supply chain data. Its QR codes facilitate anti-coun-
terfeiting for consumers using just a smartphone and require no
programming.

ESG TRACKING AND As more companies make ESG tracking a priority, a flurry of VC
funding has opened up for startups focused on ESG reporting and
ESG tracking and reporting ensure compliance with ESG stan-
dards, thus reducing the risk of regulatory issues, financial pen-
DECLARATIONS
management. That includes Germany-based IntegrityNext, which alties, and reputational damage. ESG tracking is also a strategic
helps companies audit their supply chains for ESG compliance, asset in building a resilient, ethical, and competitive business. It
and France’s SESAMm, which provides corporations with ESG can also help companies be better prepared for future risks to their
insights into their supply chain. CarbonChain specializes in resources in regions that are vulnerable to climate change. Making
assisting industries with high emissions—such as agriculture, this kind of information publicly available enhances transparency
metal, mining, and oil and gas—to monitor their supply chain and accountability, fostering trust among stakeholders, includ-
emissions. Companies upload their supply chain data on the ing consumers and investors. This is increasingly important as
WHAT IT IS
platform and receive comprehensive emissions reports, complete consumer awareness and concern about environmental and social
with detailed breakdowns at the asset level and AI-generated issues grow; companies with transparent and responsible prac-
With ESG tracking and sustainability insights. tices in their supply chains can significantly influence purchasing
decisions. Furthermore, prioritizing ESG tracking gives companies
declarations, companies can Sheer Logistics introduced its own customized ESG dashboards a competitive advantage in the market. But it’s not just about pub-
that enable managed transportation clients to monitor real-time
align their supply chains with Scope 3 carbon dioxide emissions across all transportation modes
lic perception: ESG tracking and declarations equip companies to
better adapt to changing economic and environmental conditions,
their environmental, social, and in their supply chain. These dashboards aggregate transportation
data, ensuring clients can accurately track, measure, and report
providing resilience against the challenges of sustainability.
governance goals, to foster emissions following a globally recognized standard developed by

the Global Logistics Emissions Council.
transparency, responsibility, and
In line with this trend, Apple released a new framework high-
sustainable practices. lighting its progress on renewable energy adoption, efficiency
improvement, and materials innovation. To do this, the company
conducted in-depth analyses of the clean energy percentage used
in manufacturing for each product and tracked the impact of ex-
panded recycled materials usage on device climate footprints.

OMNICHANNEL Omnichannel, a pivotal strategy in modern commerce, seamlessly

integrates varied sales and distribution channels to provide con-
Omnichannel management platforms are essential in the supply
chain, logistics, and manufacturing industries for creating a cohe-
MANAGEMENT
sumers a unified expedited experience while minimizing invento- sive and efficient consumer experience across various sales and
ry. Recently acquired by Ingka Investments, the investment arm distribution channels. By centralizing operations, these platforms
of Ikea, Made4net specializes in a cloud-based warehouse man- greatly enhance customer retention and satisfaction. They skillful-
PLATFORMS agement system and end-to-end supply chain execution software.
Its omnichannel fulfillment solution will boost Ikea’s operations,
ly balance minimizing inventory levels with maintaining product
availability, which reduces holding costs and boosts the overall
enhancing order fulfillment accuracy and supply chain visibility efficiency of supply chain operations. Centralized reporting fea-
across 482 locations. Target has also highlighted the success of tures simplify the management and optimization of supply chain
WHAT IT IS
its omnichannel efforts: In a recent earnings report the retailer activities. Additionally, the cost-efficiencies introduced by these
boasted a 4% growth in same-day services and a 7% increase in platforms span multiple facets of supply chain operations, includ-
A comprehensive platform drive-up usage. ing warehousing, order processing, transportation, and adminis-
tration. Importantly, these platforms are designed for scalability,
that includes everything from Flowspace’s software provides centralized visibility and reporting, enabling businesses to adjust to fluctuating order volumes and
offering modern omnichannel solutions to efficiently manage and
warehouse management systems, optimize supply chain operations, whether a company uses its
smoothly expand operations. This adaptability is crucial for growth
and meeting market demands, making omnichannel management
to enterprise resource planning, own facilities or Flowspace’s network. And Maersk has introduced
an e-commerce fulfillment solution that streamlines warehousing,
platforms a strategic tool for businesses aiming to streamline
their operations and effectively scale.
to transportation management order processing, and last-mile deliveries, ensuring end-to-end
visibility and reducing the need for multiple logistics partners.
systems eases the responsibilities
Omnichannel fulfillment also boosts order volume and necessi-
behind sourcing, manufacturing, tates quicker deliveries for smaller orders. Blue Yonder’s Ware-
and delivering products to house Execution System optimizes warehouse operations by

efficiently allocating tasks to the appropriate resources, resulting
customers. in increased capacity and operational excellence. And Belgium’s
Alpega provides a comprehensive logistics system for end-to-end
transportation services by facilitating real-time communication
between manufacturers and logistics providers while streamlining
transportation requests into a single system.

DIVERSIFYING THE Broadening the procurement process is vital to bolster adapt-

ability and mitigate risks like supply interruptions and price
Diversifying the procurement process is crucial in these in-
dustries because it significantly mitigates the risks related
PROCUREMENT
fluctuations. Linkana streamlines supplier onboarding and to sole-sourcing. By sourcing from a variety of suppliers,
governance with automated compliance processes, reducing businesses can reduce vulnerabilities such as supply inter-
the hassle of vetting new suppliers. Its methodology identi-
PROCESS fies diverse and inclusive economy suppliers, automates risk
analysis, and provides access to a vast B2B network.
ruptions, price volatility, and weakened negotiation posi-
tions, thereby fortifying the resilience of their supply chains.
Streamlining the supplier onboarding process through
Delving into cloud-based solutions, Ivalua offers an AI-en- automated compliance procedures simplifies and accel-
WHAT IT IS hanced source-to-contract process that simplifies supplier erates the vetting of new suppliers, conserving time and
risk assessment, fraud reduction, and contract analytics. resources. This automation not only facilitates engagement
Companies are expanding their Omnia Partners’ Opus supports procurement with a simpli- with a broader range of suppliers but also minimizes risks
fied platform providing access to hundreds of cooperative linked to new, untested suppliers, contributing to a more
supplier base to make it more contracts. Users can requisition from multiple suppliers dependable supply chain. Additionally, a diverse procure-
in a single transaction and access real-time product data,
inclusive and in line with their eliminating the need for multiple websites or third-party
ment strategy yields richer data and insights, improving the
efficiency and effectiveness of decision-making processes
corporate values—which can platforms.
in the supply chain. Overall, diversification in procurement
also benefit their bottom line. In digital procurement intelligence, Smart Cube’s Ampli- is not just a risk management tactic but a strategic ap-
proach to building a robust, agile, and data-rich supply
fi PRO, an on-demand procurement intelligence platform,
They’re achieving this through introduces AI/machine learning functionality for enhanced chain infrastructure.
search capabilities. Users can post sourcing questions and
new technologies offering get summarized responses within seconds. On a similar note,
transparency and onboarding Scoutbee’s Intelligence Platform incorporates generative AI
features to provide deep insights into supply bases. NASA
efficiencies. has introduced its Acquisition Innovation Launchpad to
accelerate innovation communication, diversify the indus-
trial base, and modernize procurement. With this initiative,
NASA’s focus shifts to modular procurement approaches,
emphasizing safe risk-taking and agility to adapt to a fast-
paced technological environment.

LAST-MILE Last-mile solutions are the linchpin of modern supply chains, en-
suring timely deliveries, cost-efficiency, and a superior customer
Last-mile delivery solutions are crucial for ensuring timely and
efficient deliveries—a key factor in meeting customer expectations
SOLUTIONS
experience while addressing urbanization and sustainability chal- and maintaining a competitive edge. They significantly reduce
lenges. Manna, an Irish company, is tackling the last mile in the delivery costs by optimizing routes, decreasing dependence on
sky: Its all-electric, zero-emission drones have an average delivery human labor, and increasing overall delivery efficiency. Providing a
time of three minutes and offer sustainable shopping options superior customer experience, vital for fostering brand loyalty and
while prioritizing customer privacy. encouraging repeat business, is another critical aspect of last-mile
solutions. Technological advancements such as dynamic rout-
For ground-level solutions, Cartken’s delivery robots have ing algorithms and predictive analytics play a significant role in
WHAT IT IS achieved Level 4 autonomy on sidewalks, significantly reducing enhancing the accuracy and efficiency of these deliveries, making
reliance on human operators and enabling cost-effective auton- them both successful and cost-effective. Moreover, the develop-
Companies are seeking to shorten omous last-mile deliveries. AxleHire enhances last-mile delivery ment of specialized last-mile services for specific industries, like
accuracy with its technology, helping cross-border e-commerce on-demand logistics in construction, exemplifies the innovative
the last mile to increase their companies achieve next-day shipping upon entry into the US. potential of these solutions to meet unique industry needs. Last-
Similarly, DeliveryDefense from UPS Capital uses predictive ana-
margins. Several new advances lytics to assess delivery risk associated with addresses across the
mile solutions are not just a final step in the delivery process; they
are strategic tools for improving customer satisfaction, reducing
in technology are offering faster US. It empowers e-commerce retailers to make informed decisions
before shipping, enhancing the likelihood of successful deliveries.
operational costs, and driving innovation tailored to industry-spe-
cific requirements.
solutions and increased range of And Curri, which focuses on on-demand, last-mile logistics for the
construction industry, offers nationwide fleet services for various
delivery. load types, providing real-time tracking, proof-of-delivery, and
comprehensive visibility.
Shifting to environmental impact, Estonian tech company Cleve-

ron has introduced a battery-powered outdoor parcel locker that
significantly reduces CO2 emissions in the last-mile sector. Cycle,
a B2B mobility solution for delivery services and couriers, enables
sustainable last-mile delivery with e-bikes and has secured 10.3
million euros in Series A funding.

SMART PORTS Europe’s two largest shipping gateways have begun a series of
investments to manage increasing shipping activity. The Dutch port
Smart ports are using cutting-edge technologies like AI, 5G, and
digital radar networks to revolutionize operations in the sup-
of Rotterdam, known as one of the best smart ports in the world, is ply chain, logistics, and manufacturing industries. By providing
expanding its fully automated capacity and hinterland connectivity, real-time insights into cargo movements, these ports optimize uti-
while the Antwerp-Bruges port has launched an extensive digital lization rates and streamline processes, leading to cost reductions
radar and camera network to manage its substantial shipping traffic. and enhanced supply chain efficiencies. This shift marks a sig-
nificant stride in the maritime sector’s digital transformation, by
Amid these investments, Awake.AI has introduced the Smart Port as incorporating the use of digital twins—virtual replicas of physical
a service platform, leveraging Intel technology, AI, and 5G to enhance ports—for smarter, more efficient operations. Additionally, features
WHAT IT IS operational efficiency in ports. The platform utilizes machine-learn- such as vehicle analytics, digital boundary control, and enhanced
ing models and sensors to provide real-time awareness of cargo surveillance bolster overall safety and security, mitigating risks
The congestion at ports that flows, optimized port utilization rates, and reduced emissions. and ensuring uninterrupted port activities. Smart ports also play
a pivotal role in the global trend toward connectivity and inter-
arose during the pandemic has The Port of Ponce in Puerto Rico is set to become a Smart Port Lab
connectivity. They enhance hinterland links and unify shipping
through a partnership with Scale AI. A $2 million project will develop
begun to ease, but concerns AI-enabled port infrastructure, including document processing, route
and port data, facilitating the management of extensive shipping
traffic. In essence, smart ports are not just about technological up-
optimization, and object recognition. This initiative aims to modern-
about the future have companies ize shipping and transportation equipment, unify shipping and port
grades; they represent a holistic approach to redefining maritime
logistics, emphasizing efficiency, safety, and global connectivity.
looking for new shipping routes, data, and enhance operations for the port.
new devices for monitoring In Asia, Langkawi Port is also focusing on enhancing its smart port
infrastructure. It has partnered with CelcomDigi to use AI-driven
congestion, new smart safety and security solutions to analyze vehicles, create smart digital
boundary control, and conduct general surveillance to ensure effi-
technology implementation, and cient and secure port operations. And Tianjin Port Group and Huawei
new ways to expedite loading are deepening their cooperation to create a digital twin of the port
leading to Beijing. This initiative involves constructing automated
and unloading. terminals, upgrading traditional terminals, and making the overall
port more automated and intelligent.

SCENARIOS
SCENARIO YEAR 2031
The OmniVision Chain

An immersive omnichannel platform called OmniVision has transformed how supply chain management controllers
operate. Gone are the days of monitoring operations from a physical warehouse; now, controllers navigate a virtual
landscape that mirrors the real-time dynamics of the global supply chain. Within the OmniVision environment, man-
agement controllers—equipped with advanced VR gear—stand amid a digital twin of the supply chain world. They ob-
serve a holographic globe where supply routes, manufacturing hubs, and distribution centers pulse with life. Through
intuitive gestures, they zoom into specific areas, inspecting operations with incredible detail. They can visualize every-
thing from cargo ships navigating oceans to robotic arms assembling products in factories.
One of the platform’s groundbreaking features is real-time ESG reporting. Controllers can instantly access a site’s ESG
metrics and observe live data streams of energy consumption, waste management, and labor practices. This transpar-
ency enables them to uphold ethical standards and swiftly make informed decisions. When a worker strike or a dis-
ruption occurs, the controllers, with a mere flick of their fingers, reroute production to an alternative site. This instant
transition is possible thanks to OmniVision’s predictive analytics and interconnected global network. Customers, on
their end, have embraced MyVisionLink, a personalized version of OmniVision that syncs with their preferences and
purchase history, allowing for a harmonious interaction between consumer demand and supply chain responsiveness.
This synergy ensures that product availability and delivery expectations are perfectly aligned, creating a seamless and
satisfying customer experience.

MANUFACTURING
& DISTRIBUTION
ENHANCEMENTS

CONTINUOUS Continuous additive manufacturing drives a decentralized just-in-

time approach to production. To address speed bottlenecks, start-
Continuous additive manufacturing is pivotal in cutting down on
time and costs in the supply chain and manufacturing sectors.
ADDITIVE
up Ambots harnesses autonomous swarm robots for its solution, It also fosters a decentralized production model, enabling manu-
breaking down digital designs into manageable tasks through facturing at or near the demand point, minimizing transportation
proprietary chunk-based 3D printing. Ambots is now leading the needs and costs. This method supports the production of custom-
MANUFACTURING software development for a $3.5 million project that will 3D print
horizontal mission structures for the US military.
ized products on demand, which is particularly advantageous for
industries needing unique parts, such as health care and aero-
space. Moreover, the hybrid of additive and subtractive manufac-
For metal additive manufacturing, a collaborative research effort
turing in one continuous system catalyzes innovation in fields like
WHAT IT IS in South Korea has introduced a novel technology, enabling
aerospace and defense, allowing for on-site component repairs
continuous additive manufacturing in various orientations. In
another approach to 3D metal printing, Fabric8Labs, a San Diego and diminishing the reliance on complex supply chains for part
The production process startup, is developing electrochemical additive manufacturing. replacement. It also expedites the R&D cycle, crucial for sectors
that depend on swift technological advancements and adaptabil-
known as continuous additive The room-temperature technique builds rapidly at the atomic level
from a water-based feedstock containing dissolved metal ions. ity. As this process continues to scale, it will create new forms
manufacturing streamlines the This approach allows for micron-scale feature resolution and com- of business services, and become increasingly important to the
retail world. The selling of materials for these services also offers a
plex internal features, and can print onto temperature sensitive
creation of items by constantly substrates such as PCBs, silicon, or existing metal components. potential new business venture, which would require large social-
ization efforts for consumer adoption.
printing parts, thereby reducing For hybrid additive-subtractive manufacturing, a researcher at the
University of Texas at Arlington is exploring equipment that could
downtime and enabling the efficiently repair and remanufacture parts, even in resource-con-
efficient production of complex, strained environments like space. VulcanForms integrates addi-
tive and subtractive manufacturing, as well as in-process sensing
customized products. and machine learning to enable an industrial scale laser metal
additive manufacturing solution. It produces parts for companies
in the medical, defense, semiconductor, and aerospace industries,
turning designs into finished parts in a matter of days. Research-
ers at EPFL’s Laboratory of Thermomechanical Metallurgy have
validated the effectiveness of acoustic monitoring in laser-based
additive manufacturing, enhancing product quality in industrial
sectors using laser powder bed fusion.

SMART While IoT adds complexity to smart warehouses by generating vast

amounts of data from various devices, edge computing supports a
Smart warehouses represent a significant leap forward for the sup-
ply chain, logistics, and manufacturing industries. Utilizing edge
WAREHOUSES
solution by processing all the data locally. Belgian startup Edgise computing, AI, and digital twin technologies, they process vast
is specializing in developing hardware for edge computing ap- amounts of data to optimize operations, demonstrating the criti-
plications, enhancing AI processing speed in industrial systems, cal role of advanced technology in logistics. Edge computing will
and optimizing processes by bringing AI closer to the data source. become a necessity as it empowers smart warehouses by reducing
Another instance is Seattle-based Loopr, which offers AI-powered latency, enabling real-time decision-making, and enhancing over-
edge applications for defect scanning, maintenance prediction, all operational efficiency—ensuring timely and precise responses
and inventory management. to dynamic warehouse challenges. Digital twins can optimize
WHAT IT IS
material handling systems, enabling easy planning, deployment,
Digital twin solutions can also help, enabling real-time monitor- and continuous improvement of mobile robots. Predictive main-
Smart warehouses are ing, analysis, optimization, and predictive maintenance. San Fran- tenance of equipment minimizes downtime, ensuring an unbro-
cisco startup Datumix offers a virtual 3D simulation and AI-driv- ken delivery chain, while AI in quality control guarantees product
technologically advanced en digital twin for equipment condition monitoring, improving standards, boosting customer trust and mitigating risks. The rich
loading and unloading efficiency by up to 30%, and reducing labor
facilities that leverage costs by 15%. German company Cognition Factory also offers an AI-
data gleaned from smart warehouses offer insights for streamlin-
ing operations, providing a competitive edge and enabling quick
automation, AI, and real-time based digital twin solution for warehouse simulation. adaptation to market shifts. This transformation is not just about
efficiency; it’s about redefining the supply chain ecosystem to be
data analytics to optimize Amazon is deploying AI-powered damage detection to its ware-
houses to speed up fulfillment: The company’s computer-directed
more responsive, resilient, and customer-centric.
inventory management and facility in San Antonio employs robots for inventory management,
storing 18 million items at any given time and shipping 2 million
streamline the entire supply chain items on a weekly basis. And in the spectrum of measurement
process. innovations, MoistTech’s implementation of near-infrared technol-

ogy is a notable breakthrough. Through nondestructive, contact-
less analysis, it achieves an accuracy level of 0.1%, underpinning
precise quality control and moisture management for optimized
energy usage.

NANO-FULFILLMENT Automated, localized warehousing facilitates same-day and even

quicker delivery to meet the growing demand for speedy e-com-
Nano-fulfillment centers are crucial for e-commerce success as
they cater to the modern consumer’s demand for rapid delivery.
CENTERS
merce services. Retail giants like Walmart are already experiment- By localizing and automating warehouses with advanced robotics
ing with this: The company is creating next-generation fulfillment and AI, these centers streamline order processing, reduce errors,
centers that blend robotics, AI, and human expertise to set new and enhance efficiency. They utilize predictive analytics to forecast
standards for delivery speed. These centers aim to reach 95% of the consumer behavior, strategically stocking items to expedite last-
US population with next-day or two-day shipping. mile delivery. But as regulations evolve, such as the dark store ban
in Paris, the industry must navigate new compliance landscapes.
Other startups are focusing on creating technology that can be One option is to work with local governments overseeing urban
WHAT IT IS widely deployed. Nimble specializes in intelligent robotic fulfillment centers looking for ways to utilize vacant spaces—dark stores
systems designed to efficiently pick, pack, and ship e-commerce can in fact prevent urban decay. Outsourcing to nano-fulfillment
Nano-fulfillment centers enhance orders, focusing on picking as the hardest part of the puzzle. Its providers offers companies cost-effective warehousing solutions,
technology reduces warehouse space requirements and offers rapid eliminating the need for large, traditional storage spaces. Upskill-
supply chains and logistics by delivery, letting companies outsource their warehousing needs. In a ing workers to work in these facilities will help companies that
similar vein, KwikShelf empowers Nigerian merchants with efficient
enabling hyperlocal, efficient, inventory storage and order fulfillment. It plans to establish multi-
face backlash for reducing their dependency on human workers.
These centers also represent a strategic evolution in logistics, by
and swift last-mile deliveries. ple e-commerce fulfillment centers across large Nigerian cities. prioritizing speed, efficiency, and adaptability to changing market
demands.
These can be small infill sites in However, finding the right place to set up nano-fulfillment centers
can be challenging and costly. Mowito operates automated nano-ful-
the urban center of cities that fillment centers across Bengaluru, India, where the only human
staffers are the delivery personnel who pick up orders. Its AI-driven
bring manufacturing and delivery robotic systems improve order accuracy, reduce operational costs,
closer to the consumer. and enable 24/7 retail store operations.
On a regulatory note, Paris recently implemented a ban on dark

stores, which are distribution centers for rapid grocery and house-
hold item deliveries. Paris authorities argued that these dark stores
violated urban planning laws, categorizing them as warehouses,
which are prohibited in residential zones.

INTELLIGENT Clarkson University’s biosensors lab has devised a food degrada-

tion sensor that enhances intelligent packaging. Discreetly placed
Intelligent packaging should be a critical focus for the supply
chain, logistics, and manufacturing industries, as it provides
PACKAGING
within the packaging, the sensor changes color when food begins real-time data on product conditions, enhancing food safety and
to spoil, minimizing the risk of throwing away food prematurely. minimizing waste. Sensors will continue to advance, offering new
The University of Genoa’s Department of Chemistry has similarly warning systems these industries can capitalize on. Companies
pioneered a smart packaging technology capable of detecting should start exploring embedded packaging sensors that de-
amines, compounds that signify protein degradation in meat, tect food degradation, ensuring only fresh, high-quality products
fish, and dairy. As amines accumulate during degradation, the reach consumers, which will help maintain brand integrity. Edible
packaging undergoes a noticeable color change, serving as an packaging presents an eco-friendly alternative, by cutting down
WHAT IT IS
intuitive indicator of product quality. And the UK-based company on waste and environmental impact. While this novel innovation
“It’s Fresh!” focuses on extending the shelf life of fresh fruits and sounds promising, its success depends on consumer socializa-
Intelligent packaging, equipped vegetables by controlling ethylene levels in the local environment, tion. Reusable packaging further supports a circular economy by
which is a key factor influencing ripening and spoilage. Recently, encouraging repeated use and reducing waste generation. These
with real-time monitoring and Nestle announced its research in using haptic feedback in pack- smart solutions are not just environmentally beneficial; they also
quality assessment capabilities, aging to provide information about its products. bolster consumer trust and engagement through their active par-
ticipation in sustainability, offering strategic value to businesses
is necessary for reducing food French company Lactips pioneered the development of edible
packaging using casein protein derived from milk. While mimick-
looking to innovate and maintain a competitive edge.
waste, maintaining product ing plastic’s flexibility, Lactips’ patented film biodegrades within
18 days, demonstrating eco-friendliness and good performance in
freshness, and optimizing keeping perishables fresh. Israeli designer Naama Nicotra’s Na-
environmental benefits. kedPak transforms edible packaging into a culinary art form: Her
innovative edible wrappers include spices and dissolve into delec-
table sauces when heated. Polynatural, based in Chile, addresses
carbon emissions with “Shel-Life,” a 100% plant-based emulsion
coating that preserves fruits and vegetables during transporta-
tion. And Austrian startup Speech Code has a novel sound-based
packaging solution for the visually impaired. Its users can scan a
unique code image to translate it into text or audio format without
requiring internet access.

AUTONOMOUS COBOTS Autonomous cobot-powered innovations are transforming logis-

tics for efficiency, safety, and sustainability. BionicHIVE brings
Autonomous cobots are revolutionizing supply chains by en-
hancing warehouse operations with their adaptability, safety, and
FOR WAREHOUSING futuristic efficiency to existing warehouses with its AI-powered

robots that can easily traverse shelves. Exotec’s Skypod system
efficiency. They’re capable of working alongside humans and seam-
lessly integrate into current layouts. Advanced technologies are
AND DELIVERY
functions as an automated fleet of robots, workstations, and evolving warehouses into human-free zones, increasing efficiency
conveyors: The solution contains 3D movements without the need and operational speed. Drones complement these efforts with their
of complicated infrastructure, operates in varied temperature swift, precise, and sustainable delivery methods. Humanoid robots
conditions, and can access any item within two minutes, enabling with sophisticated force control are stepping in, safely collabo-
a human-free environment. rating with human workers for tasks like unloading and picking,
WHAT IT IS
bolstering various industries. With their ability to handle repetitive
Clevon, in partnership with Lithuanian grocery chain IKI, is pioneer- duties, cobots free up human staff for complex tasks, while their
ing Europe’s first fleet of autonomous robot carriers for daily deliv- embedded sensors offer vital real-time data, making them key to
Autonomous cobots—robots that ery services. In the US, EASE is partnering with the Ohio Department strategic decision-making. Their advanced safety features prevent
of Transportation and DriveOhio to deploy connected and automat- accidents, ensuring a harmonious human-robot coexistence. Mul-
work next to human workers— ed trucks on revenue-generating routes. Kratos is also extending tifunctional, they manage inventory, quality control, and main-
its platooning technology for self-driving trucks to the Ohio-Indi-
and other equipment are ana region. This technology enables human-operated lead vehicles
tenance, proving indispensable to modern logistics. Despite the
initial investment, the long-term savings on labor and increased ef-
augmenting the warehouse and to be followed and mimicked by unoccupied follower vehicles. ficiency solidify cobots as a strategic asset for the industry’s future.
Drones can provide rapid, precise, and efficient transportation
delivery spheres with safety and while reducing environmental impact. Walmart is expanding its
efficiency. drone delivery in Dallas-Fort Worth through its partnership with

Wing. Going beyond drones, MightyFly manufactures and operates
long-range autonomous cargo aircraft that enable same-day deliv-
eries with a payload capacity of 500 pounds, a 600-mile range, and
speeds of 150 mph.
In enhanced robots, CaPow is providing autonomous and mobile,

perpetual cobots, ensuring 100% fleet utilization by eliminating
charging downtime. Apptronik unveiled Apollo, a humanoid robot,
which features advanced force control architecture for safe interac-
tion with humans. And Agility Robotics announced that its RoboFab
facility will pioneer mass-producing humanoid robots, offering great-
er flexibility and versatility compared to current industrial robots.

SCENARIOS
SCENARIO YEAR 2030
The Chroma Information System

By 2030, the world has embraced the Chroma Information System, a groundbreaking innovation in smart packaging that ended
the era of uncertainty in food and medicine quality, giving rise to an unprecedented level of consumer safety and confidence. Every
consumable product—from the freshest loaves of bread to the most critical heart medication—is encased in this intelligent pack-
aging, which is equipped with micro-sensors powerful enough to detect the slightest change in the product’s integrity. These sen-
sors actively monitor the molecular composition to ensure that the contents remain within the optimal range for human consump-
tion. Each package syncs to the purchaser’s wearable device, which holds their personal health and safety data. This harmonious
interaction between packaging and personal tech is the cornerstone of consumer safety. The labels now act as an information
display. With a simple tap, customers can see how much longer they have to eat the food or if they should get a refill on their pre-
scription. The labels also change colors when the sensors detect a deviation—be it spoilage or a mismatch with the buyer’s health
profile. When the packaging’s exterior, normally vibrant and inviting, morphs into a universal shade of brown—a color specifically
engineered to be perceived across the spectrum of color vision—it indicates that it is time to either recycle or compost the goods.
This color change is not just a warning; it initiates an automatic return process. As soon as the product is set down, smart surfaces
in homes and stores process the Chroma data and activate a return mechanism. Drones or automated systems retrieve the item,
ensuring that it never reaches the consumer’s cart or cupboard. The Chroma Information System has rewritten the narrative of con-
sumer safety, where transparency is not just about what lies within but also about taking immediate action when standards are
not met.

SCENARIOS
SCENARIO YEAR 2029
Perpetual Motion Manufacturing

As dawn breaks over the horizon in 2029, a fleet of autonomous trucks are seen roving the highways. These are no ordinary vehi-
cles; they are the pulsing arteries of the world’s supply chain, the pioneers of a logistic revolution—they are Platooning Pioneers.
Each truck is an autonomous powerhouse, fitted with state-of-the-art additive manufacturing plants, their cargo bays printing
orders for toothbrushes, cutlery, glasses, bowls, and wearable cases in real time. The smart highway allows the platoon to be moni-
tored by an intricate network of sensors, relaying information back to the AI command center that calculates every move with preci-
sion. There is no need for stops; the platoon is a rolling fortress of productivity, a never-ending loop of delivery and manufacturing.
Above, a swarm of drones buzzes like worker bees, each one departing from its respective truck with a package. They scatter across
the landscape, their flight paths choreographed by algorithms, ensuring that every product reaches its destination on time. The
Platooning Pioneers company offers services that slash delivery times, reduce inventory costs, and minimize waste. This is the epit-
ome of just-in-time manufacturing, a system where the supply chain is not just a route but a mobile assembly line. The Platooning
Pioneers have set the stage for an era where roads are no longer mere paths but dynamic streams of creation and distribution.

AUTHORS &
CONTRIBUTORS


ERICA PETERSON
SARAH JOHNSON

SELECTED
SOURCES

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ENTERTAINMENT
INDUSTRY ENTERTAINMENT
TABLE OF CONTENTS
920 Top Headlines 936 Digital Celebrities 952 Climate Infiltrates Art 965 Authors
921 State of Play and Performance 967 Selected Sources
937 AI Assisted Creativity
922 Key Events 953 Scenario: The Art of Scent
938 AI Generated Voice Acting
954 Location-Based
923 Likely Near Term 939 Automated Content Production
Entertainment
Developments
940 Business Model Evolution
955 VR in Location-Based
924 Why Entertainment
941 Environmental Impact of Entertainment
Trends Matter to Your
Streaming
Organization 956 AR in Location-Based
942 Scenario: Spiraling into Entertainment
darkness
957 Blockchain Integrations
943 The Arts
To Consider 958 Assistive Amusement
944 Blockchain Art Market Park Robots
927 Central Themes
945 Protecting Creativity 959 Amusement Parks
929 Ones To Watch for Niche Interests
946 Multi-use Spaces
930 Streaming
960 Intuitive Optimization
947 Performances Embrace
931 The New Influencer Economy
Technology 961 Dynamic Operations
932 Decentralized Creative
948 The Holographic Live 962 Immersive Museum
Collaborative
Performance Experiences
933 Immersive Narratives
949 Virtual Reality Concerts 963 Theme Parks Go Green
934 Personalized Content
950 XR Fine Art 964 Scenario: Theme
935 Massive Interactive Live Events Park in a Box
951 AI Generated Fine Art

TOP HEADLINES 01 AI Enters Hollywood Contracts

Hollywood’s major labor unions—the DGA, SAG-AFTRA, and the WGA—all added
some AI restrictions into their contracts, the first steps to creating regulatory certainty
Technology has stepped for usage of the tech.
into the limelight and

02 Tightening the Belt
forced its examination, As streaming becomes less profitable, production costs rise because of new guild
contracts, and box offices continue to underperform, companies are instituting
possibly paving the frugality measures such as layoffs.
way towards defining a

responsible usage. 03 AI Is Making Movies
While still in its infancy, generative AI has graduated to making moving images.
04 Touring Sets New Records

Taylor Swift and Beyoncé set new records in every way, and with more options than ever
to view live performances, the artists exponentially increased their earning potentials.
05 Reducing the Environmental Footprint

Sustainability is entering all aspects of entertainment, ranging from movie production
processes to amusement park business practices and themes of artistic exploration.

STATE From May 2, 2023 (the start of the Writers Guild strike) to November 9, 2023
(when the tentative agreement with SAG-AFTRA was announced), studios
OF PLAY
and creators didn’t produce any work as they grappled with how AI could be
leveraged fairly in the creative process. The result was new contracts that
made significant strides toward protecting guild members, even though
much of the language is vague—a necessity, as the potential of AI is just
being explored. The results provide much-needed guardrails to enable sus-
tainable usage of artificial intelligence, an example other industries will
emulate.
AI is infiltrating all aspects of
Generative AI has continued to democratize creativity, and we’ve seen both
the creative process, promising short films developed using text-to-video and a YouTube-DeepMind AI part-
to make it leaner in an effort to nership that creates songs in the style of any artist. However, this democ-
ratization tends to create an overabundance of creators and content that
increase profitability. could further fragment the audience and contribute to content fatigue.
Sustainability is now a main consideration: Film sets have sustainability

advisors, tours and theme parks run on renewables, and streamers are re-
ducing their digital emissions. Advances in holography and haptics enable a
range of “secondary” experiences, too. These aren’t meant to replace the live
event experience, but rather offer additional options at different price points
(and varying environmental impact), opening up fresh ways of monetization.

KEY EVENTS
M AY 1 8 , 2 0 2 3 JUNE 2, 2023 N OV E M B E R 9, 2 0 2 3
Galactic Starcruiser closure announced AI-generated short premieres SAG-AFTRA agreement proposed
Disney closes its “Star Wars” hotel due to Every shot of the film is generated After the WGA, the end of the actors’
poor performance, dampening development by Dall-E. union strike enabled the industry to
of elaborate immersions. get back to work.
JUNE 2, 2023 O C TO B E R 2 7, 2 0 2 3
Coldplay’s sustainable touring AI celebrity twin

The band announces their tour’s K-pop star Mark Tuan connects his
reduced emissions and waste. It digital twin with ChatGPT so fans
also runs on renewable energies. can converse with him 24/7.


TIGHTENING THE BELT Lower Production Budgets Sustainability Practices Overpresent Celebrities
After the golden age of content, all As studios work toward making their stream- Gone are the days when entertainment Digital celebrities, both those with human
signs are now pointing toward effi- ing services profitable, new lean processes companies just have to take their direct counterparts and those without, allow anytime
ciency measures. Fears of a recession, will walk the line between providing enough emissions into account. They’ll also have to access for fans but run the risk of eradicating
inflation, a widening wealth gap, and content variety to avoid subscription fall-off consider reducing fan and production travel the defining feature of celebrity: scarcity.
and actually making money. emissions, recycling, and using sustainable
geopolitical instability have many materials when planning and executing con-
people holding on to their financial re- tent.
sources. And that’s especially true in
the entertainment industry, as prob- Engaging Broader Demographics Live-ish Experiences Copyright Chaos
lems with the streaming business
The aging population in Europe, Asia, and to As people have less disposable income, they Microsoft launched its Copilot Copyright
model, increased production costs a lesser degree the US, requires strategizing will seek alternative entertainment options. Commitment, assuming users’ legal copyright
based on the new union contracts, about what topics will make people over age Local pubs broadcasting a game or smaller, risks when using the company’s AI Copilot.
and fractured audiences create an en- 60 tune in. On the other end of the spectrum, local live venues might be more attractive However, as long as there is no clear regula-
Gen Z requires special enticement to watch experiences than stadium concerts. tion, the use of many AI tools will continue to
vironment of extreme frugality. Tech-
long instead of short-form content. carry substantial legal risk.
nology looks like a knight in shining
armor, promising to increase produc-
tion speeds and reduce costs without 11 MACRO SOURCES OF DISRUPTION
decreasing quality—if it is incorpo-
rated ethically and sustainably. After
the unions’ negotiated contractual
guardrails, those goals may be easier
to achieve. Technology Media & Demographics Environment Government Public Health Education Geopolitics Infrastructure Economy Wealth

WHY ENTERTAINMENT TRENDS MATTER TO YOUR ORGANIZATION
Shifting Customer New Creative Unexpected First Mover Irrelevance of Access to Personal
Habits Expressions Disruptors Advantage Originality Data
Changing demographics Influenced by the Gaming, live events, Artificial intelligence will The immersive exhibits A decentralized data
mean serving audiences gaming experience, and social media are fundamentally change for artists like Vincent Van structure where the user
with very different consumers engaging Gen Z’s favorite forms processes: business- Gogh that have sprung has complete control over
budgets, spending habits, with imaginary worlds of entertainment, all related, administrative, up over the past few years who can access personal
and entertainment needs. continue to demand more of which have strong and creative. Companies might be dismissed by data and for how long
As audiences become influence over them. communal elements. that embrace changes art aficionados, but their will shift willingness
increasingly fractured Technology makes this Apparel brands, food and early on and rethink the huge success shows they to share information.
and content even more easier by democratizing drink companies, and way they do business hit a nerve. As AI becomes Entertainment companies
abundant, it’s crucial to the necessary tools, but hospitality companies are will have the chance to more prevalent in fine will benefit if they
fine-tune offerings and companies need to figure well-positioned to expand create industry standards art, globally reproducible consider early how to
approach storytelling out how to collaborate on their traditional that are best for their exhibit experiences might best utilize the insights
from a world-building with the audience without offerings and create more purposes. replace the admiration of they will gain, whether
perspective with multiple decreasing the quality of immersive worlds that a singular work. it’s within existing or new
entry points. the work. capture that generation’s experiences.
attention.

The regulatory landscape for new tech, specifically AI and copyright, is still Collaborations will uncover best practices for integrating new technologies in
largely unexplored, and the regulations that do exist differ by country. This AI or XR. Joining forces with a niche player in the field is often more sensible,
uncertainty can easily expose a company to significant legal liabilities. efficient, and less expensive than trying to build capacities in-house.
The ease of creation that technology enables needs to be approached with Both digital interactions and real-life offer opportunities to increase the level
caution. Frequent exposure to a franchise decreases audience interest and of engagement with audiences, and companies can choose to do this within an
quickly leads to an apathetic response. existing repertoire or with completely new products.
With digitization comes increased vulnerability to cyberattacks. As
The fragmentation of audiences and desire for local content provide room
personalization becomes more prevalent, companies need to ensure that
for diverse voices to tell their stories, but companies should make sure new
their customers’ data is safe throughout the entire ecosystem of devices they
use for the experience. products that speak to different niches are still authentic to the brand.
It’s still unclear if streaming is a viable business model, and if technological Technology lowers the creative industry’s barrier to entry—not only for
advances can offset rising production costs. Pressure tests will reveal consumers but also for companies. It’s never been lower risk to experiment with
whether companies can continue to generate a profit in the shifting media new, unconventional ways to tell a story and engage audiences.
landscape.
Using audience data creatively is crucial. How can you let data flow into your
Interactive entertainment does require a minimum level of digital access, development process in fresh ways? How can you build additional trust to gain
which includes hardware but also connectivity. A product’s reach needs to insights and provide a higher degree of personalization?
include swaths of the population with limited resources and access.

1 2 3 4 5 6
Build an international net- Invest in analyzing your Stay current on legal de- Fine-tune your value prop- Investigate thoroughly Ensure you have direct
work of collaborators and environmental footprint. As velopments—litigation as osition on a granular level, where crowdsourcing access to your customers
partners. The increased both ESG standards and well as regulation—for new and then adjust it for the will serve the quality and so you can market your
taste for locally-produced consumer sentiment toward technologies. Make sure to different audiences you relevance of your prod- products to them. The
content will require experts sustainability become more venture beyond topics that serve without compromis- uct offering. This type of internet will change, and
that are familiar with not demanding for entertain- are immediately relevant ing its core. In a world of audience engagement is increasingly chatbots will
only the creative sensibil- ment, it’s imperative to have for your company, such as content overabundance compelling, especially as become the new gate-
ities but also the business transparency throughout XR or generative AI. Overall and increasing personal- it is just emerging, but can keepers instead of users
in the different territories. your entire supply chain. or tangential legislation ization in every aspect of a easily devalue the product searching the net. It’ll be
Technology enables even can serve as an impulse consumer’s life, each piece and water down singular even more challenging to
smaller players to diversify driver for topics important of content needs to exactly visions of creators, instead find content as users stay
their product offering. to your business. fit an audience’s needs. of enriching storytelling. on a single interface.

CENTRAL THEMES
From Creator to Creative Director Personalized Content The Industry Goes Green
Books, songs, images, presentations, short stories, Personalization of content is happening on two fronts: Voluntary or not, sustainability is increasingly a con-
videos—anything can be created with the touch of a for a single viewer and for the entire audience of a sideration in entertainment. Large movie productions
button. While this empowers people who never before show or movie. Netflix continues to dabble here, with hire sustainability consultants, theme parks are
had access to creative tools and allows for diverse and the recent release of the interactive rom-com “Choose optimizing their energy usage and participating in the
fresh voices to be heard, it also shifts how humans Love,” and Genvid released Silent Hill, a massive inter- circular economy, and in the art world, exploration of
use their brains. Editing and directing someone else’s active live event where the storyline is driven by the environmental themes has become more common.
output (whether a person’s or AI’s) is not as labori- audience voting on how different characters should In the performance industry, Coldplay’s “Music of the
ously exhausting as birthing the piece of art. That behave. But significant developments are also happen- Spheres” tour raised the bar when it comes to holistic
might be fine, but it could also lead to more superficial ing outside the industry, where increasingly sophisti- practices: it notched milestones including a 47% re-
engagement, decreasing impact and quality of cre- cated sensors in our smart devices can measure our duction in direct CO2 emissions and planting 5 mil-
ative endeavors. It also might have a different effect: a biomarkers and AI can detect our mental and emotion- lion trees, one for each concertgoer. In TV, the industry
resurgent need for in-person and analog activity to be al states based on that data—in real time. Eventually, started addressing and minimizing the emissions con-
sure of someone’s actual capabilities. After all, only if a more streamlined version of personalized content nected to streaming. As the effects of climate change
you see someone create work can you confirm that no won’t require conscious interaction with the viewer but further escalate, consumers will demand sustainable
artificial means were used in the thought process or will instead be synthesized by an AI based on our per- practices from all their favorite brands, including their
creative endeavor. Already today, schools are returning sonal data. For both consumers and content producers, beloved celebrities. This makes it all the more surpris-
to oral exams for that reason, and startup investors are this will create unlimited opportunity to engage with ing that neither of 2023’s biggest tours—from Taylor
beginning to insist on in-person meetings to deter- established or new franchises, as the story will be dif- Swift and Beyoncé—made any official announcement
mine how clear a founder’s thought processes are. ferent every time. about their sustainability efforts.

CENTRAL THEMES
Immersive Experiences Secondary Live Experiences Splintering of Content
Immersive entertainment is becoming more common, With the restrictions of the pandemic still fresh, peo- Audiences have been becoming more and more frag-
with Las Vegas venue Sphere setting the standard. ple are flocking to communally experience live perfor- mented for years, making it difficult for stories (or
Haptic seats vibrate and shake to convey a more real- mances. Last year, Taylor Swift and Beyoncé’s mega actors for that matter) to gain global momentum. Now,
istic sense of what’s happening on screen, scents are tours broke every existing record, and they promise audiences are increasingly favoring locally-produced
channeled into the room, and temperature is adjust- to continue to draw millions of people in 2024. Both content that stars local actors and caters to local
ed to create a new level of immersion into imaginary stars also revived another form of entertainment: the sensibilities and senses of humor. And studios, both
worlds. While the gaming and localized entertainment concert film. Released first while she was still on tour, traditional ones such as Warner Bros. and Paramount
industries are much further along with helping their Swift’s film was a huge success, opening up second- and streaming platforms like Netflix and Amazon, are
audience feel as if they’re living in an alternative real- ary ways for fans to experience live entertainment. The adjusting their strategies: All of them shifted toward
ity, these efforts are starting to bleed into traditional movie’s audiences were (almost) as engaged as those country or regional-specific content production. If
viewing experiences. Beyond Sphere, traditional movie who saw her performances in person, confirming the an idea works, it might get recreated for a different
theaters have integrated haptic devices; these offer potential for deep emotional engagement even for country, as was the case with Netflix’s French series
a great differentiator to at-home entertainment and those more removed types of experiences. As technol- “Call My Agent!,” which was reshot in the UK as “Ten
represent an attempt to get people back into cinemas, ogies like holograms and extended reality evolve with Percent.” While this strategy creates more content and
at least until the technology can be scaled for in-home the necessary supporting infrastructure such as 5G keeps people employed, smaller target audiences also
use. As these new types of scores (olfactory, sensing) and 6G, it’s easy to imagine myriad ways that a perfor- means smaller budgets and more reliance on technol-
are added to productions, studios will need creative mance can be enjoyed depending on personal budgets ogy to increase efficiency. It’ll also prevent the habit of
talent that can design and create cohesive sense lay- and level of enthusiasm. relying on global talent to carry tentpole productions,
ers for an entire show or movie, just as they do now for currently the cornerstone of every major studio’s reve-
music or sound. nue projection.

ONES TO WATCH
Ke Li, Ph.D. student at Cornell University, for Pär Almqvist, co-founder of Tracklib, for Phil Chen, founding partner at Race Capital, Marc Carey, CEO and co-founder of Evolution
developing a wearable that creates a digital simplifying sampling for musicians while for his leadership at HTC Vive, which created Music, for promoting sustainability in the
avatar based on facial expressions captured providing transparency in regards to copyright the VR theater project “Light the Night: Red- music industry by creating a bioplastic LP.
through sonar. ownership. hat Killer” based on the namesake Taiwanese
series. Dom Robinson, founder of Greening of
Hyunchul Lim, Ph.D. student at Cornell Uni- Thomas Villepoux, storyverse designer at Streaming, for bringing transparency to the
versity, for developing a wrist camera that Digital Rise, for creating the VR series “Jail- Alan Cowen, founder and CEO of Hume AI, environmental impact of the industry and
can construct 3D models of the body. birds—The Eye of the Artist,” showcasing the for working on AI that can detect and under- initiating change.
possibilities of this storytelling form. stand human emotion.
Sven Bliedung von der Heide, CEO of Volu- Steve Zhao, founder and CEO of Sandbox VR,
cap, for working on a completely portable Davy and Kristin McGuire, founders of Studio Akira Asano, director at Aerial Burton, for for creating immersive local VR entertain-
volumetric video stage and pushing the McGuire and mixed reality artists, for seam- creating a holographic projector that uses ment, the latest creation being an adaptation
boundaries of the medium. lessly merging analog and digital in their plasma laser to create images without need- of Netflix’s “Squid Game.”
Dracula pop-up book. ing a surface for bouncing light .
Jacob Navok, CEO of Genvid Technologies, Patrick Johnson, CEO and founder of Rock
for making progress on interactive audi- Eloise Singer, CEO at Singer Studios, for Stephen Parker, creative director at Way- Paper Reality, for bringing augmented reality
ence streaming and creating a new genre of intriguingly combining education and enter- mark, for creating the short film “The Frost” to San Francisco’s Japantown with custom
entertainment with massive interactive live tainment with her interactive VR experience with every shot generated by GenAI Dall-E. digital origami artwork.
events. about Bertha Benz’s role in developing the
first automobile. Scott Mann, co-founder of Flawless AI, for fa- Paul France, founder and CEO of Existent, for
Tod Machover, director of MIT’s Opera of cilitating the use of AI in the filmmaking pro- developing a platform that allows for actions
the Future, for his work on city symphonies, Dennis Lisk, Max Sacker, and Ioulia Isserlis, cess, specifically synchronizing the actors’ in VR to affect the real world and vice versa.
which create soundscapes of metropolitan co-founders of Proof of Taste, enabling anyone mouths to new lines of dialogue or dubbing.
areas in collaboration with their residents. to DJ in front of a virtual crowd in a photoreal- Nick Fellingham, founder and CEO of Con-
istic environment. Tonia Samsonova, founder of Exactly.ai, for dense, for building a platform that easily
Keri Kilty, founder of Authentify Art, for devel- allowing artists to train an AI model on their captures live performances and streams
oping a unique Internet of Things tag to veri- Zeena Qureshi, co-founder of Sonantic, for own images so that it can apply the style to them into a virtual reality in real time.
fy proof of presence and tracking information her use of artificial intelligence to create real- new creative works.
of art pieces. istic voices, such as Val Kilmer’s voice in “Top
Gun: Maverick.”

STREAMING

THE NEW Platforms are constantly coming up with new ways to

attract valuable influencers. Last June, TikTok introduced
Global ad spending on influencer marketing is projected to
exceed $32 billion in 2024. And with no shortage of digital
INFLUENCER subscriber-only videos—a perk exclusively available to

creators with over 1,000 followers, designed to strengthen
influencers in sight, the influencer economy will soon over-
take conventional marketing and advertising channels. The
ECONOMY ties between influencers and their fans. And in September,

it launched TikTok Shop, which grants brands and creators
emergence of virtual influencers adds a whole new layer of
complexity to the evolving class of tastemakers, who are al-
the ability to sell directly through shoppable content on the ready struggling to stand out in an oversaturated space. But
TikTok app. In addition, Creative Juice has pledged to infuse AI-generated stars, which are becoming increasingly easy
WHAT IT IS $50 million into its Juice Funds, which allows deep-pock- to produce and maintain, threaten to undermine the power
eted influencers to invest in up-and-coming creatives. The and attractiveness of their human counterparts. Instead of
The influencer economy—driven fintech company’s new Refresh product will showcase its paying a real-life influencer thousands of dollars per post to
take on the catalog licensing model pioneered by cre- promote their products, brands may choose to collaborate
by digital creators producing ator-growth companies like Jellysmack and Spotter. with a computer-generated persona that’s more flexible and
content to generate revenue for “Synthetic influencers,” anthropomorphic entities gener-
affordable. After all, virtual ambassadors carry a lower risk
of damaging a brand’s reputation, since unlike humans,
self-profit, brands, advertisers, ated using AI, are also making waves: In 2022, Lu do Mag- they’re not prone to emotional outbursts or bad behavior.
alu—the face of Brazilian retailer Magazine Luiza and the
and platforms—is estimated to world’s most popular virtual influencer on Instagram—raked
The rise of synthetic influencers—such as Meta’s digital
doppelgangers of real influencers TikTok tastemaker Charli
hit over $21 billion in 2023. And it in over $16 million from sponsorship deals with brands like D’Amelio and YouTube star MrBeast—might also worsen the
Adidas and MAC Cosmetics. Synthetic influencer creator mental health of social media influencers, many of whom
will only continue to grow, thanks Superplastic recently raised $20 million led by Amazon’s reportedly suffer from paranoia, angst, and low self-esteem
to the expanding network of Alexa Fund in a deal that includes an animated series. The
startup, launched by Kidrobot founder Paul Budnitz, plans
due to constant pressure and scrutiny. Their inability to
achieve the same level of perfection as their AI-made rivals
startups supporting the new class to draw strategic backers like Google Ventures, Galaxy might result in even more anxiety and depression.
Digital, and Sony Japan to develop more character-based
of entrepreneurs who thrive on products across multiple platforms, including video games
social media. and social networks.

DECENTRALIZED CTERA Cloud Streaming allows creatives to seamlessly

work together in real time using popular editing suites like
Improving ways for creators to collaborate remotely makes
content faster and less expensive to produce, and can
CREATIVE Apple Final Cut Pro, Black Magic Design DaVinci Resolve,
and Adobe Premiere Pro. Meanwhile, in the music realm,
potentially boost output quality and value. C2C technology
simplifies immediate file sharing, eliminating the need to
COLLABORATIVE Audiomovers added MIDI streaming to its Listento software

suite, allowing Listento Pro subscribers to easily transmit
ship memory cards and hard drives and minimizing the risk
of data loss or damage. This democratization of creative
real-time MIDI data from any digital audio station over tools has spurred the expansion of talent pools internation-
the internet. That means a music producer can capture a ally, enabling creators from opposite ends of the Earth to
WHAT IT IS faraway musician’s live performance in real time and then work simultaneously in real time. In turn, this phenomenon
immediately incorporate elements like additional instru- could unite a more diverse mix of voices and perspectives,
The growing demand for content ments to enhance the recording. Last April, Adobe expanded ultimately leading to a more colorful showcase of stories
its Frame.io collaboration platform to accommodate photos and ideas. The maturation of audiovisual and haptic hard-
has led to many new ways to and PDFs. The offering allows users to capture, edit, review, ware will accelerate the adoption of these practices, along
produce it virtually, fueled by a and approve content through a single hub, drastically with the proliferation of next-gen connectivity (5G and
improving workflow. Camera-to-cloud integration lets cre- beyond), which will allow for near-zero-lag live collaboration
global talent pool of creatives atives upload and store their media online and immediately and let more creators simultaneously use data- and com-
continually craving fresh ways to access it from anywhere. Atomos, which produces recording pute-intensive creative platforms. It could even spur the
monitors, has loaded its Ninja V and Ninja V+ models with emergence of new forms of art and content (think: works
collaborate. Extended reality could the C2C technology, inviting its users to enjoy the feature produced by artists’ collectives at the scale of massive mul-
enhance the field of decentralized through Atomos Connect. tiplayer online role-playing game user bases).
creative collaboration, leading

to more immersive engagements
and allowing companies to even
more accurately recreate in-person
experiences for remote participants.

IMMERSIVE Around the world, entertainment venues are experimenting

with immersive shows. At the Las Vegas Sphere, the iconic
As consumers’ appetite for multisensory experiences in-
creases, creatives will have to push the envelope on design-
NARRATIVES rock band U2’s performances unfold in a high-tech dome

featuring haptics in 10,000 seats and a wraparound LED
ing one-of-a-kind engagements that showcase olfactory,
tactile, and spatial elements to keep up. Beamform tech-
screen enhanced with 4D effects, including wind and scent. nology—which allows two people sitting five feet apart to
At Universal Studios Orlando, the “Bourne Stuntacular”—a hear different sounds or languages without headphones,
live show based on the Bourne films, set in a theater with a creating a sensational experience that’s unique to each
130-foot-wide LED screen and automated interactive set piec- guest—unlocks a whole new level of event customization
WHAT IT IS es—delivers in-your-face action including high-speed chases, and could bring more diverse audiences together under the
intense fighting scenes, and a thrilling rooftop escape. And same roof. And the “lickable TV,” which is covered with a
As our entertainment devices the “Tornado Chasers” attraction at France’s Futuroscope
offers a whirlwind experience comprising on-stage action
hygienic film that can be sprayed with various flavors, offers
onlookers the chance to taste the food shown on the screen.
become more advanced, and a 360-degree screen, with the audience seated on a
(If commercialized, such an invention could enable distance
circular platform that rises, tilts, and turns. Similarly, the
consumers are increasingly Attraktion! Dome Ride Theater at SeaWorld Abu Dhabi boasts
learning for cooks, tasting games, and the ability to explore
restaurant menus from across the globe within the comfort
seeking out more engaging a dynamic seating ring alongside a 56-foot-wide LED sphere
providing an uninterrupted 360-degree view. Companies
of your own home.) Meanwhile, interactive entertainment
content that they can experience are also finding ways to make video-game narratives more
will overtake content meant for passive consumption,
ultimately leaving a deeper imprint. And the practice of
immersive: While playing “Assassin’s Creed Mirage,” gamers
with multiple senses. New strides wearing the OWO vest can experience sensations exclusive converging multiple media types into one experience—like
a concert within a video game—will create new revenue
in volumetric video capture, to the new release. At IFA 2023, French company Actronika
streams for brands, advertisers, and performers. Enter-
debuted similar haptic gear that’s capable of simulating the
spatial audio, and haptics allow feeling of getting hit by a fireball or standing in a rainstorm. tainment venues will increasingly depend on haptics and
Showcasing less tech-centric (but equally immersive) spac- enhanced audio, driving up the price of admission to events
audiences to see, hear, and feel es, the exhibition “Tim Burton’s Labyrinth” takes visitors on and performances across the board.
the action like never before, a multisensory journey through the filmmaker’s whimsical
world—a tangle of walkable mazes with over 300 routes to
turning passive spectators into explore, peppered with strange sounds, tactile touches, and
active characters in a story. optical illusions.

PERSONALIZED Netflix’s 2018 series “Black Mirror: Bandersnatch” presented

viewers with a dizzying array of choices and possibilities,
Interactive storytelling stands to boost customer loyalty
and engagement, as well as allowing content creators and
CONTENT encouraging them to engage with the film more than once.
Similarly, the streaming service’s first interactive rom-com,
streaming services to learn more about their audiences
and use that data to tailor ads. Micro-fandoms surrounding
“Choose Love,” let audiences pick who the protagonist falls different versions of the same title could emerge, while die-
for, with six potential endings. In 2022, Amazon announced hard fans might band together to figure out every possible
Create with Alexa, a kid-friendly AI tool that will craft a short combination of events and determine the best path to take.
story with just a few words. The company claims the out- Interactive content could also help recapture users who
WHAT IT IS come will be different every time, even if a child picks the are tired of conventional storytelling. Children’s program-
same exact prompts. In gaming, a new feature from NVIDIA ming might benefit from flexible formats the most: Kids
With the emergence of more gives players the ability to speak directly to a video game tend to have shorter attention spans, so they get bored of
character and receive an immediate response, so they traditional content easily—and they have the time to en-
flexible forms of storytelling, become part of the story themselves. Though personaliza- gage with shows, unlike many adults who like to multitask
audiences are no longer limited tion is mostly rooted in viewers actively making choices as while watching television and don’t have the bandwidth to
the story progresses, AI algorithms could curate content consistently interact. One potential downside is that these
to a single journey. Viewers are for users based on how they say they feel. For instance, a multilinear narratives may make it difficult for audiences
invited to influence how the verbal prompt such as “show me a movie that will make me
laugh” would automatically generate a list of comedic titles
to properly recognize and discuss important societal topics
that the content aims to bring to light.
narrative unfolds, and AI-assisted to choose from, tailored to an individual’s past viewing
history. Technology could also evolve to the point where
writing can customize plotlines users are linking their biometrics to streaming services us-
based on a user’s viewing history, ing smartwatch sensors, which would receive information
about their mental and emotional states. Then media plat-
browsing habits, and favorite forms could determine the direction of a narrative based
digital publications. on viewers’ reactions to each scene (as indicated by their
perspiration level, body temperature, and heart rate)—with-
out requiring their active intervention.

MASSIVE The first-ever MILE, an online series called “Rival Peak,”

emulated a reality TV show starring 12 AI-generated compet-
The next generation of MILEs will call for a deeper collab-
oration between audience members at a much greater
INTERACTIVE LIVE itors. Over 12 weeks in 2021, the show received 200 million
engagements on Facebook. More recently, DJ2 Entertain-
scale, inviting millions all over the world to act concurrently
to control a storyline. Micro fandoms championing every
EVENTS ment (one of the companies behind the pioneering pro-

duction), announced “Silent Hill: Ascension,” which follows
possible ending may emerge, spurring the creation of mul-
tiple digital communities, each dedicated to engendering
multiple main characters tormented by monsters around a specific outcome. While “Rival Peak” encouraged fans to
the globe. Genvid Technologies has raised $113 million to work together to earn points, the ability of viewers to cre-
WHAT IT IS develop MILEs and has announced two upcoming projects: ate characters in “Project Raven” marks a new milestone
“Borderlands EchoVision Live,” where viewers will sway the in two-way storytelling, blurring the boundaries between
Combining the reach of broadcast misadventures of eight tourists who find themselves in the series’ spectators and creators. As participants become
trouble after setting off on a safari, and “DC Heroes United,” more involved in developing a MILE, they could be rewarded
TV and the interactivity of video where fans will influence the interactions of their favorite for their characters’ performance, with prizes delivered in
games, massive interactive live superheroes and help form a new Justice League. Genvid’s the form of exclusive digital perks, small royalties, or even
latest MILE concept, “Project Raven,” imagines users who fractional ownership of the series. Successful MILEs could
events (MILEs) invite audiences will not only be empowered to decide the fate of humans be translated into different forms of media, from colorful
to follow a plotline that unfolds hunted by zombies but also create characters they can
send straight into the action. The company is also explor-
graphic novels to complex VR experiences.
over several weeks, encouraging ing the idea of community building through MILEs, where
participants of all ages can enter a livestreamed 3D space
them to interact with a livestream and engage with one another within a set time frame. Users
to impact the action. The cloud- would move freely within the digital realm and see the
paths others have followed before them.
powered format is meant to
entertain both passive viewers
and actively engaged participants
in real time.

DIGITAL You may have already heard a virtual star on the radio or
streaming music. Live 95.5, a radio station in Portland,
As deepfake technology advances, it becomes harder to
determine the authenticity of media, leaving celebrities
CELEBRITIES
Oregon, sometimes broadcasts a synthetic version of its more vulnerable to having their likenesses imitated and
midday host using Futuri Media’s RadioGPT—an AI-powered manipulated without their consent. Digital twins raise a
tool using GPT-4 to generate a script based on trending news. lot of thorny questions about ethics and the mental health
K-pop star Mark Tuan was the first celebrity to link his digital implications of giving users access to lifelike digital ver-
twin to a large language model, allowing fans to interact
sions of favorite celebrities, which might lead to unhealthy
with him 24/7. And Hume, creator of “metastar” Angelbaby,
one-sided relationships in social media and the metaverse.
raised $11.7 million to fund the creation of more virtual music
WHAT IT IS On the positive side, digital twins unlock many new op-
artists. But not all of these virtual stars are authorized. Last
year, a song featuring unauthorized deepfakes of Drake and portunities for engagement. Fans can communicate with
Virtual stars never complain The Weeknd’s voices, called “Heart on my Sleeve,” went viral. real-life stars in their own language and interact with their
Tom Hanks took to Instagram to warn his fans about a dental virtual versions at different ages, making celebrities seem
or get into trouble—plus, they plan ad that showcased an unsanctioned AI version of him- relatable to a broader audience.
work for free and are always self. And Warner Music signed a record deal with digital pop
Virtual stars could eventually outpace real-life performers
singer and Instagram influencer Noonoouri, whose voice was
available. That makes them created using generative AI. in terms of earnings and reach. After all, AI creations—which
are increasingly becoming cheaper to produce—demand no
much easier to deal with—not to While some musicians distance themselves from unap- pay and require minimal upkeep. (Though this will likely not
proved digital creations, others are embracing the new trend,
mention, more lucrative—than urging fans to create content featuring their digital twins.
be the case for digital twins of human celebrities, who will
eventually be compensated once proper legislation is put in
human entertainers, creating a One example is artist Holly Herndon, who created a site that
allows anyone to produce deepfake songs using her voice.
place.) Digital celebrities can also be scaled and adjusted
huge point of contention in the Similarly, Singaporean actress Jamie Yeo granted fintech
to suit any time or space, giving them an edge over flesh-
and-blood entertainers. With human celebrities increasingly
company Hugosave permission to use her digital clone to
industry. Consequently, one of sell its content, while soccer star Lionel Messi gave PepsiCo willing to relinquish their full image rights to AI companies
hoping to capitalize on their likeness, the media might
the main goals of last year’s SAG- the green light to use his deepfake to promote Lay’s potato
chips. Last October, Meta unveiled a roster of digital doppel- soon be overrun with licensed deepfakes. Deceased creators
AFTRA strike was to stop AI from gängers inspired by real-life celebrities, from anime superfan could produce new works posthumously through their digi-
Tamika (played by Naomi Osaka) to “big sis” Billie (modeled tal twins, which could be programmed to behave exactly as
replacing actors on set. after Kendall Jenner). the creators did while alive.

AI ASSISTED Artificial intelligence tools are already being utilized in

video production. Synthesia employs natural language
With the help of AI, nearly anyone can create a masterful
work with minimal effort. Trained artists are forced to com-
CREATIVITY processing and machine learning algorithms to produce

high-quality videos from text without any actors, mics, or
pete with computer-savvy creators who can produce com-
parable content in a fraction of the time, despite lacking an
cameras. Similarly, Synthesys’ technology allows you to artistic eye or a musical ear. And creatives are being pressed
pick a “Humatar” and feed a script for it to read in one of to develop new skills in order to stay relevant, transitioning
140+ languages. And new tools such as InVideo and Veed. into a hands-off role that calls for less ideating and more
io enable users to create videos complete with a script and supervising. AI is blurring the lines between the conven-
WHAT IT IS voice-overs and then edit them using simple text prompts tional and the unorthodox, diluting the art marketplace
to delete scenes, change accents, and more. Last year, 28 and making it more difficult for consumers to navigate. Are
Artists are increasingly relying Squared Studios and Moon Ventures released “The Safe humans going to be more or less likely to go see a painting
Zone,” a seven-minute film fully written and directed by at a museum if it’s produced with a few lines of text in a
on artificial intelligence not artificial intelligence. The producers—who generated an en- matter of seconds? How will creatives’ growing reliance on
only to improve their creative tire storyboard using Dall-E 2—consulted ChatGPT on every AI tools impact the quality of content they generate? Should
stage of the filmmaking process, from prop suggestions AI-assisted art be valued the same as their classically made
processes and come up with and lighting requirements to camera positioning and cos- contemporaries? And is the proliferation of AI works a threat
project ideas but also to generate tume design. In the music realm, AudioCipher’s text-to-midi
plugin empowers creatives to turn words into melodies
to traditional artists? In the wake of the 148-day Writers
Guild of America strike that paralyzed Hollywood, it’s easy to
complete works—and even direct and progressions; Soundraw lets creators choose a mood, wonder whether AI stands to diminish the voices and power
genre, and length to compose a track; Chirp turns lyrics of human creatives, disabling them from fighting for better
productions—with very little into 20-second song sketches; and WarpSound supports work conditions in the future.
guidance. This begs the question: GPT-4 text-to-music generation for live YouTube and Twitch
streams.
Does it matter whether a piece
of art is created by a human or a
machine?

AI GENERATED Co-founded by movie director Scott Mann, Flawless AI pro-

vides AI tools to filmmakers and entertainment companies.
As viewers’ tastes become more diverse, streamers contin-
ue to ramp up their efforts abroad, churning out endless
VOICE ACTING The company is partnering with US seller and distributor

XYZ Films and UK producer Tea Shop Productions to obtain
content featuring international casts and storylines. Sim-
plifying the localization of media, AI dubbing has greatly
the rights to foreign-language films. The company’s propri- extended the reach of cinematic productions, allowing
etary TrueSync technology—which was used in Mann’s “Fall” distributors to target different audiences all over the world.
to cover more than 30 F-bombs that impacted the film’s ini- Movie dialogues can also be tailored to suit various ages,
tial rating—will create lip-synched versions of the acquired further broadening their appeal. The new capability stands
WHAT IT IS titles and convert them to English, starting with Crazy to drastically decrease production costs and unlock new
Pictures’ sci-fi adventure film “UFO Sweden.” Netflix doc revenue opportunities for producers and distributors. Actors
AI makes it possible to take a film’s “The Andy Warhol Diaries” showcased a synthetic version could also benefit from the AI-powered technology, since
of the late artist’s voice produced by Resemble AI’s voice it would increase their availability to take on more work by
dialogue and dub it in multiple generator, which empowers users to create human-like reducing the need for reshoots. But it might be bad news
languages using re-creations voiceovers in seconds. And AI startup Papercup is collabo- for Francesco Pannofino—the official Italian voice for George
rating with Fremantle to localize the British TV production Clooney and Denzel Washington—and other local voice
of the actors’ voices. It can also studio’s catalog of talent shows for Middle Eastern audi- artists who could foreseeably lose their jobs to AI-powered
synchronize the translated speech ences, with technology that automatically translates and
dubs video content into Arabic. Indie film studio FilmRoj’s
tools. Audiences might protest the practice of having actors
seemingly speak languages they’re not fluent in, the same
with the performer’s mouth Polish psychological thriller “Swarm” features AI dubbing way public outcry arises when performers portray different
by Deepdub. The Tel Aviv company’s Deepdub GO makes races and cultures.
movements, making it appear professional-level dubbing available for all content types,
even more realistic. and allows creators to use their own voice to guide intona-
tion. Meanwhile, Klleon’s patented technology can generate
lip movements while maintaining the same voice and facial
expressions with just one photo and a 30-second recording.

AUTOMATED Emarsys provides an omnichannel automation platform

with AI tools and insights for marketers to quickly pin-
The proliferation and bundling of AI-powered solutions for
marketing and corporate communications have lowered the
CONTENT point priority customer segments and launch integrated

campaigns across multiple channels. Similarly, Zapier lets
price of such tools, making them more accessible to small
companies with tighter budgets. With companies increas-
PRODUCTION users create customized automated workflows by having

them simply outline their needs in writing. The company’s
ingly relying on the same AI-powered software to create
marketing materials, there’s a higher risk of campaigns
AI tools then crank out personalized no-code automation sponsored by different brands unintentionally sharing the
apps and dashboards. And Axios HQ offers AI-powered same visual elements or verbiage. That could prove prob-
WHAT IT IS software that helps large organizations better manage their lematic, given the loose regulations surrounding AI-gen-
internal communications. Powered by a data-driven formu- erated content. What if two rival brands ended up with the
AI is providing more efficient la, the company’s Smart Brevity AI tool crafts and delivers same B-roll footage? Which company would have the right
messages designed to keep stakeholders well informed to use the overlapping assets? By leveraging AI tools to
ways to streamline workflows and and aligned. Aug X’s Augie, an AI-powered video generator, streamline operations, companies may have to spend more
processes, enabling companies enables marketers with zero audio or video-editing skills to time and money on copyright litigation. They might also end
easily add narration, text, music, and photos to their pro- up generating ad campaigns and other marketing materi-
to not only scale their corporate motional clips. Twilio’s CustomerAI also helps users create als devoid of originality, authenticity, and genuine human
communications and marketing journey maps for individual consumers in just seconds,
and transform fragmented data into actionable insights.
emotion.
efforts but also crank out fresh

material at lightning speed with
just a few text prompts and clicks.
And with more solutions being
bundled, automating content
is bound to become even more
affordable.

1STYEAR ON THE LIST HOW IT WORKS WHY IT MATTERS
BUSINESS MODEL Ads used to be a hallmark of free content, but as the num-
ber of free streaming services has decreased, consumers
According to Comscore, Americans adopted ad-supported
streaming services at a faster rate than non-ad subscrip-
EVOLUTION are increasingly paying for ad-based plans to save money.

In November 2022, Netflix replaced its Basic plan—which
tion-based plans between 2020 and 2022: a noticeable shift
likely driven by growing inflation. So it’s no surprise that
provided a single ad-free stream for $10 a month—with a many streamers have begun introducing more affordable
cheaper offering that serves 4-5 minutes of unskippable ad-supported streams to attract new subscribers. As enter-
ads per hour. Available in a dozen countries, the Standard tainment platforms scramble to recover from the economic
with Ads option provides access to movies and shows in downturn and stay relevant, many are reverting back to old
WHAT IT IS the same quality as the Standard plan, with some title practices rooted in the era of cable TV. They’ve taken a step
restrictions. Soon after, Disney launched Disney+ Basic, back—toward ad-based content, staggered episode releases,
Streaming platforms are an ad-supported subscription plan that grants subscrib- and live programming, and away from the commercial-free,
ers access to its full catalog and offers high-quality video on-demand binge-watching culture that thrived during
revamping their business models streaming on up to four devices at once. Peacock, Starz, the pandemic. But with new blockchain-based players like
in an effort to decrease shrinking Max, Paramount Plus, Apple TV+, and YouTube have since in- EarnTV (a multiplatform video content delivery protocol that
creased their rates for ad-based subscription plans, placing tokenizes entertainment by rewarding viewers for watching,
membership. As many providers an even bigger premium on commercial-free content. More liking, and sharing its content) gaining traction and push-
raise their subscription prices, streamers are also turning to live programming to drive
revenue, including Netflix, which live streamed Chris Rock’s
ing for decentralization, the end of streaming as we know it
could be near.
some consumers are switching comedy special “Selective Outrage.” Startup Telly is trying a
novel approach: Last May, the company—founded by Pluto
from ad-free subscriptions to less TV veteran Ilya Pozin—gave away a free smart TV to 500,000
expensive ad-based plans. customers. The 4K device features a second interactive
screen that continuously displays shoppable content. Pozin
believes that providing free hardware will give more con-
sumers access to devices—and in turn, increase the reach
of its targeted ads.

ENVIRONMENTAL Since its release, the energy used to store and transport
data for streaming Olivia Rodrigo’s hit single “Driver’s
In the past, media companies have heavily relied on renew-
able energy certificates to fund initiatives that reduce or
IMPACT OF License” on Spotify has generated the same amount of

greenhouse gas as a plane flying between London and New
remove harmful emissions from the atmosphere to offset
their carbon usage. The controversial method has been crit-
STREAMING York 4,000 times. To combat the negative effects of audio

streaming on the environment, the music company intro-
icized for providing organizations a way to buy themselves
out of having to decarbonize their manufacturing and oper-
duced Sustainable Sonics, which gives brands the oppor- ation processes. Beyond that, many sustainability reports
tunity to fund tree-planting initiatives that would offset the published by companies have proven to be inaccurate, since
WHAT IT IS same amount of carbon emitted by their ads. Bitmovin, cre- they are often based on in-house estimates instead of real
ator of FuboTV’s video streaming infrastructure, introduced energy consumption numbers. As a result, the Securities
Though media streaming might ECO Mode—a sustainable feature that optimizes video and Exchange Commission has proposed new rules re-
quality to reduce data transmission, which in turn cuts CO2 quiring climate-related disclosures to investors, as well as
be more eco-friendly than emissions. YouTube parent company Google, which plans to periodic evaluations to determine the validity of ESG claims.
producing a vinyl record or CD, make its data hubs the most energy-efficient in the world, As climate change worsens, businesses must brainstorm
hopes to fully operate on clean energy by the end of the de- more effective ways to counter their carbon emissions and
it still accounts for 3%-4% of the cade. Its new carbon-intelligent computing platform shifts decrease their power consumption—especially as investors
global carbon footprint. As the the execution of many computational tasks to low-carbon
energies, such as solar and wind, when they are most abun-
become increasingly eco-conscious. Organizations should
aim to increase consumer awareness of the negative effects
line between the physical and dant. And these sustainability efforts aren’t just limited of streaming and educate viewers on how to reduce their
to data: Record companies are starting to develop ways to carbon footprint through small acts, such as limiting screen
virtual world gets blurrier, the create vinyl with renewable and non-fossil fuel materials. time and switching off monitors when not in use. Increasing
more important it becomes for UK-based Evolution Music claims its sugar-based, nontoxic efficiency through the adoption of more ethical and envi-
bioplastic—which can be used to manufacture records with- ronment-friendly practices could boost content production
streaming companies to find new out having to modify the machinery at its record pressing and raise profit margins, not to mention free up resources
ways to minimize their impact on plants—could help decarbonize the music industry. and time for entertainment platforms to explore additional
revenue streams.
the planet.

SCENARIOS
SCENARIO YEAR 2035
Spiraling into darkness

The big studios have shifted their offering from static storytelling to AI-driven, highly personalized movies and TV shows. AI, integrated with so-
phisticated wearable sensors, analyzes viewers’ emotional and physiological responses in real time to tailor the storyline to their preferences.
Sensors in a smartwatch detect changes in heart rate, skin conductance, and even voice modulation to feed data back to the AI system.
But there have been problems. While in a typical viewing session, the AI notes the viewer’s excitement and introduces scenes that create an in-
creasingly enjoyable storyline, recently malfunctions of the algorithms have become more common. As the AI detects the viewer’s subtle discom-
fort at certain suspenseful moments, it mistakenly interprets this as engagement and begins weaving in darker elements. The AI starts to delve
into the viewer’s past viewing history, finding a pattern of avoidance of certain themes, and, misguidedly, it incorporates those scenarios into the
current storyline to increase the emotional response. The movie becomes unsettlingly personalized. Situations echoing the viewer’s real-life fears
are played out on screen. The AI, interpreting an increasing heart rate and agitated voice responses as signs of peak engagement, intensifies these
aspects. This leads to a spiraling narrative, where the on-screen drama becomes a mirror of the viewer’s internal struggles and past traumas, blur-
ring the line between fiction and reality.
Viewers, especially young adults, are severely impacted by the accidental exposure to these deeply emotional rollercoasters; a suicide attempt
after such an interactive viewing triggered nationwide protests to put up guardrails around these algorithms and hold companies accountable.
However, governments are hesitant to overregulate the ever-evolving AI industry, and many argue “the algorithm is not the problem, but the per-
son’s emotional response to it.” So for now, it’s left up to the viewers (and parents) to ensure safe use of this kind of entertainment.

THE ARTS

BLOCKCHAIN ART Last summer, Refik Anadol worked with the Yawanawá com-
munity in Brazil on a multilayered digital masterpiece made
Though the demand for NFTs plummeted in 2022, the
blockchain art market still has a pulse—and as the value
MARKET of 1,000 one-of-a-kind NFTs that react to real-time weather

data from the Amazon rainforest. The new media artist’s
of cryptocurrency gradually rebounds, it’s poised to make a
comeback. After all, blockchain technology has numerous
first major solo exhibit, “Living Paintings,” featured dy- applications in the virtual art marketplace—from allowing
namic masterpieces based on California-related data sets. buyers to track assets and verify their provenance, to en-
Christie’s 3.0, an on-chain digital art auction platform, host- abling creators to receive royalties for every secondary sale.
ed “Cartography of the Soul,” a curated sale featuring more But until NFTs regain the trust of investors stung by the
WHAT IT IS than 30 works by generative artists including DeeKay, Smap sudden cooling of the digital art market following the initial
Spratt, IX Shells, and Mad Dog Jones. More recently, the auc- hype, they are likely better off flourishing in well-established
The blockchain art market— tion house’s “Future Frequencies: Explorations in Art and virtual ecosystems, like the video game realm. Web3 leader
Fashion”—presented in collaboration with Gucci—brought Yuga Labs has raised $450 million and is collaborating with
which centers on NFT-based in over $137,000. And five NFTs by Keith Haring, collectively a number of tech companies including Hadean and Far-
works created using modeling, called Pixel Pioneer, raked in $1.59 million last fall. Though away to create Otherside. The initiative is an interoperable
there weren’t too many NFT works at Art Basel Miami 2023, metaverse in which NFTs can grant characters unique abili-
algorithms, and data—went Simon Denny’s “Metaverse Landscape 8: The Sandbox Land” ties and in-game virtual real estate. With so many strategic
bust in 2022, partly due to the still managed to draw plenty of attention, quickly selling
for 30,000 euros on preview day. And thanks to Domini.art’s
partnerships related to cryptocurrency and the blockchain
in the works, it’s clear that companies and creators alike
rapid devaluation of crypto $DOMI crypto token, anyone can invest in blue-chip art. are finally realizing the true power and potential of Web3
The NFT platform lets investors buy and sell fractionalized technology. Will the gamble of NFT investors undeterred by
exacerbated by the fall of digital stakes in high-valued artworks, which are transformed into market volatility ultimately pay off? Only time will tell.
currency exchange FTX. But new unique ERC20 NFT tokens on the blockchain, creating an
indelible record of ownership and transaction history.
artists and platforms appear to
be fueling its resurgence.

PROTECTING Last year, the US Copyright Office declared that works gen-
erated with the help of AI could be copyrighted, as long as
When the UK’s Intellectual Property Office suggested a
copyright exemption that would give AI developers free use
CREATIVITY they proved sufficient human authorship. And after Micro-

soft’s Copilot—an AI-powered tool designed to increase pro-
of copyrighted books and music for training, several mem-
bers of Parliament criticized the proposal: a response that
ductivity and promote creativity—raised concerns among echoes a growing sentiment among creators fearful of hav-
customers over possible IP infringement, the tech giant ing their works exploited. The rising wave of writers protest-
issued a “Copyright Commitment” that safeguards users ing the use of their books to train AI-based models under-
from potential legal risks. But creators are still vulnerable scores the dire need for IP regulations designed to protect
WHAT IT IS to having their existing works misappropriated by AI. John creators—a point further emphasized by the Screen Actors
Grisham, George R.R. Martin, and a slew of other writers are Guild’s failure to reach an agreement that would better
Slowly but surely, new regulations suing OpenAI over claims that the tech company trained protect its US members against the misuse of AI. New rules
its AI models with their works without their permission. A mandating approval from and compensation for creatives
on intellectual property and similar suit was filed against Meta, alleging the compa- must also be implemented. Though the US Copyright Of-
copyrights surrounding AI- ny used books to train its AI models without first gaining fice’s first formal guidance on the governance of AI-assisted
generated content are trickling approval from their authors. And three artists have joined
forces against Stability AI, DeviantArt, and Midjourney in
works is a step in the right direction, it fails to provide a de-
tailed explanation of the “human authorship” requirement,
in around the globe—but not a class-action suit that alleges the company’s text-to-im- leaving the term open for interpretation. How the office
fast enough. And with the age AI tools have infringed on the rights of thousands of plans to validate claims of authorship is also unclear, given
creatives by scraping their work from the internet without the lack of dependable tools that detect AI-generated con-
definition of IP continuing to vary their permission. Meanwhile luxury brand Hermès won tent. The verdict of Hermès v. Rothschild set a monumental
across borders, governments a trademark infringement suit against NFT artist Mason precedent in blockchain art regulation, forcing NFT creators
Rothschild, with the jury concluding NFTs are not protected to think twice before creating pieces based on existing com-
and agencies are struggling under the First Amendment. Yuga Labs, creator of Bored panies and campaigns. Instead of engaging digital artists
to reconcile the mismatched Ape Yacht Club NFTs, won a lawsuit against Ryder Ripps and in legal battles over intellectual property, brands might be
rules intended to protect artists Jeremy Cahen, who minted NFTs that blatantly copied Bored
Ape’s NFT collection.
better off partnering with creatives to produce pieces that
fans on both sides will love.
and other creatives on an
international scale.

MULTI-USE SPACES It’s no longer enough for a venue to just include a standard
theater space. New York’s Perelman Performing Arts Cen-
The proliferation of digital experiences—driven by the rapid
expansion of virtual realms and the rise of AI—is drawing
ter—a 129,000-square-foot cultural hub with 11 performance audiences away from performances and exhibitions set
venues—hosts everything from intimate conversations with in the real world due to their increasing ease of use and
Hollywood stars to a reimagination of “Cats.” Aviva Studios accessibility. Gatherings and events meant to foster a sense
in Manchester, England, features The Warehouse, a 69-foot- of community are more often being held online instead of
high space that can be divided by a movable, full-scale in person. As a result, existing physical spaces are facing
acoustic wall. The high-tech venue can be adapted to fit any mounting pressure to adapt in order to stay relevant, and
WHAT IT IS kind of setup, from theatrical events to multimedia shows. new venues are being built to be more dynamic and interac-
On a smaller scale, Andblack Studio designed a conical tive in an effort to attract an increasingly tech-savvy audi-
Since films are so readily tent—made of modular steel panels from a prefabricated ence. Hybrid and customizable venues facilitate the produc-
kit—to serve as a multifunctional events space in Ahmed- tion of fully integrated entertainment experiences designed
available at home via streaming, abad, India. The lightweight structure, which can be taken to appeal to multiple senses and leave a deeper impression
audiences are demanding apart and rebuilt elsewhere, features a dome that can be on audiences. With AI-powered tools—which offer a higher
adjusted to accommodate a variety of events. New Jersey’s degree of automation, precision, and remote management—
a lot more from in-theater Cape Square Entertainment Center boasts an eight-theater rapidly advancing, the cost of constructing such state-of-
experiences. Cinemas have cineplex alongside a 16-lane bowling alley, a golf simulator,
and a 3,000-square-foot arcade. Rising in the city’s Green
the-art hybrid facilities is decreasing, freeing up funds for
other projects. The flexible nature of versatile spaces allows
been forced to innovate and add Heart district, Beijing’s Sub Center Theater will house an op- property owners to quickly transition them from one func-
era house, a drama stage, and a 5,500 seat concert hall. To tion to another several times a day, providing more oppor-
spaces for activities other than achieve optimal acoustic performance, the complex is be- tunities for monetization. When not in use, theaters and
movie watching. Galleries are ing built using smart construction technologies including galleries can be repurposed to serve as meeting points for
robots, building information modeling, and 3D scanning. community events, classroom extensions for educational
also evolving, offering artists the And there’s a new $40 million facility coming to San Fran- institutions, or nondenominational places of worship.
chance to treat their show space cisco’s Chinatown: Soon to break ground, Edge on a Square
will serve as an all-in-one exhibition space, art gallery,
as an extension of their canvas. community center, and live performance theater dedicated
to Asian American culture.

PERFORMANCES Thirty audience members experienced German Opera on the

Rhine’s “Die Tote Stadt (The Dead City)” through AR glasses
Artificial intelligence and other digital technologies are
pushing the boundaries of storytelling, and they’re trans-
EMBRACE that displayed additional cameras, background informa-

tion, and bilingual subtitles. Holographic theater company
forming live performances from a passive activity to a
stimulating, interactive one. The hands-on art form might
TECHNOLOGY Verse Orlando has a new location in Florida featuring four

mixed-reality experiences, combining live performances
prompt people to better grasp the message and meaning
of a performance. It could also elicit unwanted reactions
with AR inside a dynamic tent venue. Powered by AR compa- from viewers who might feel too overwhelmed or intimidat-
ny Enklu, the immersive space is filled with virtual realms ed by tech-heavy productions, alienating those who may
WHAT IT IS and interactive characters, making guests the main charac- not be familiar with the devices or possess the know-how
ters in their own story. BaggårdTeatret’s audio walks show- required to properly enjoy tech-enhanced performances.
Creatives are playing with new case theater that unfolds on your time. The app-based inter- Infusing more technology into theater also amounts to
active performance—available in three languages—invites higher production costs. That could drive up ticket prices
ways to incorporate technology you to take a stroll and follow prompts during the “invisible and exclusivity, limiting accessibility to affluent theatergo-
into their works to better engage theater” production, which takes place across three scenic ers. The ability to integrate AR sets, digital characters, and
locations in Denmark. Fix + Foxy’s “Avatar Me,” a live digital special effects might lead production companies to hire
viewers, showcase alternate performance, offered participants the chance to walk in fewer actors or backstage personnel—ultimately disabling
realities, and connect audiences someone else’s shoes as a digital avatar without physically
traveling. Now showing, “Free Your Mind”—Danny Boyle’s
entertainment workers from fighting for better conditions
in the workplace, and all but ensuring there are no repeats
around the world. reimagination of the 1999 film “The Matrix”—highlights the of 2023’s creative union strikes.
potential danger of AI-powered machines usurping humans
in an immersive, tech-centric display showcasing oversize,
state-of-the-art screens. And in Tokyo’s “Syn: A New Horizon
of Physical Sensations,” an interactive exhibition by Rhi-
zomatiks and dance troupe Elevenplay, dancers perform in
a dynamic space that transforms as the audience takes the
stage.

THE HOLOGRAPHIC Last year, “Star Trek” legend William Shatner “beamed” him-
self from a California studio to a Sydney stage using Proto
Showcasing holographic creatures could prove to be a
cheaper, cleaner, and more ethical alternative to exploiting
LIVE PERFORMANCE Hologram’s Epic—a 7-foot-tall, $65,000 machine displaying

such lifelike 3D images that it seems like a real person or
real-life animals, which demand a lot of care. Promoting a
strong sense of realism and fostering emotional connec-
object is inside. Chris Pratt, Manny Pacquiao, Logan Paul, tions, holographic technology has enabled celebrities to
and John Stamos have all taken a turn in the high-tech box, strengthen bonds with their fans on a whole other level
which has a more accessibly priced 2-foot-high, $6,900 ver- as they engage with audiences as lifesize 3D holograms.
sion called the Proto M. At SXSW, five musicians performed It also allows performers to play faraway arenas without
WHAT IT IS at an AR concert that invited fans worldwide to watch a having to worry about the soaring costs of travel and the
floating 3D hologram version of the live acts. And following potential danger posed by future pandemics, and fans get
Volumetric capture and high- its successful run, George Lucas’ “ABBA Voyage”—which to enjoy a lifesize show closer to home while paying less
brought younger versions of the Swedish band members than they would for a traditional concert. But holographic
speed connectivity are enabling back to the stage—is set to embark on a global tour. Mean- communication demands a great deal of data and power.
larger-than-life hologram shows, while, Deutsche Telekom has collaborated with several For holograms to truly gain traction, more energy-efficient
other communications companies, including Vodafone and processing systems must be implemented to reduce the
with digital 3D renderings of Telefonica, to boost the quality of real-time holographic cost of production and its impact on the environment. Soon,
human and animal performers calls in the context of its 5G Early Access Program. Techno-
logical advancements are also empowering the masses to
holographic devices could become just as commonplace
as smartphones, providing an easy way to explore alter-
alike taking over every stage. The create their own holograms, with MIT’s Tensor Holography nate realities and storylines without having to experience
enabling the creation of 3D holograms for VR in real time— the negative effects of VR headsets, such as eye strain and
tech and infrastructure for real- using just a smartphone. But digital clones of human per- headaches. Further down the line, holograms might be able
time hologram performances formers aren’t the only holographic assets on the horizon. to react to their environment and move around in a more
Years after German Circus Roncalli began using holographic organic manner, creating a more interactive experience.
might not exist just yet—but with animals in place of live ones, French circus L’Écocirque de-
rapid advancements in telecom buted an equally cruelty-free show featuring 3D projections
of elephants, whales, and lions.
technology, it’s on the horizon.

VIRTUAL REALITY Tech entertainment company Wave—which transforms

musicians into digital avatars that can be scaled up to a
VR concerts offer countless new opportunities for musi-
cians to generate revenue, from virtual merchandise and
CONCERTS thousand times their actual size and puts them on virtual
stages—treated EDM fans to a dazzling VR show featuring
bonus experiences to gamified interactions. The emerging
format’s reliance on high-tech headsets has both an inclu-
Calvin Harris, exclusively available to those with PICO head- sive and exclusive effect: Though it boosts accessibility to
sets in Europe and Asia. Following the success of Megan those who can’t travel to see their favorite artists perform, it
Thee Stallion’s “Enter the Hottieverse,” AmazeVR—which cre- alienates those unwilling or unable to purchase the expen-
ates short VR concerts for Meta Quest and Steam VR—pro- sive equipment required to participate. Competing brands
WHAT IT IS duced two more digital shows featuring Zara Larsson and also make it difficult for consumers to attend all their
Upsahl, with several more VR concerts headlined by T-Pain, favorite VR concerts in one place, since certain shows can
Virtual reality concerts— South Korean girl group Aespa, and K-pop singer Kai under- only be accessed using specific headsets. It’s possible fans
way. Thatgamecompany’s “Sky: Children of the Light,” held will begin to see stars in a different light after attending
which feature digitized stars in a virtual stadium modeled on the Rose Bowl in Pasadena, enough VR shows, which portray performers as larger-than-
performing in the metaverse— showcased a real-time Aurora concert that allowed 10,000 life characters that are flawless and infallible, and thus, less
gamers to simultaneously interact with one another. Beat- relatable. On the other hand, VR headsets provide a more
have given entertainers a day boasts the world’s first holographic music metaverse intimate view that can make fans feel closer to their favorite
chance to rebound after hub, giving audiences the opportunity to roam 360 degrees
and engage in gamified interactions while watching a VR
musicians, leaving them with a more lasting impression
of the immersive experience. Until the technology achieves
countless live shows were show. The company creates virtual spaces and captures widespread adoption, VR concerts will likely thrive the most
artists’ shows using volumetric video, then invites fans to in well-established metaverses that already have massive
canceled due to the pandemic. buy tickets to watch prerecorded performances that are followings, such as gaming realms. (Consider Travis Scott’s
Beyond serving as a new form only available to view in the metaverse during a set time. Fortnite concert, which netted the rapper a whopping $20
Last year, the platform hosted HTC Vive Originals’ latest million—more than 10 times what he earns for an in-person
of entertainment, they foster a metaverse project, “Light the Night: Redhat Killer,” an ex- event.)
sense of community by providing clusive VR experience combining puzzle games and concert
elements that invites players to follow characters living in a
a safe, neutral zone for fans to futuristic cyberpunk world.
freely engage with one another.

XR FINE ART Spotlighted at the 58th Venice Biennale, Dominique Gon-

zalez-Foerster’s first VR artwork, “Endodrome,” invited
Combining XR with more traditional art forms such as
painting and sculpture is helping artists differentiate
visitors to immerse themselves in a colorful flurry of light themselves in the increasingly saturated digital art space.
and sound using VR headsets. In “Aki’s Market,” digital Finding ways to stand out is even more crucial with the
artist Glenn Kaino combines virtual reality with traditional proliferation of AI-generated works, which can easily be pro-
painting and sculpture to tell the poignant life story of his duced by untrained artists armed with the right tools. The
late grandfather. Musée d’Orsay’s inaugural VR exhibit, “La digital nature of XR-infused fine art allows it to be replicat-
Palette de Van Gogh,” imagines the painter’s final palette ed and showcased in multiple locations at once, extending
WHAT IT IS as a portal that transports visitors to a vivid digital land- its reach beyond the confines of a single gallery. As technol-
scape inspired by the artist’s avid use of color. At the Dubai ogy becomes more intertwined with art, video games that
Armed with a growing stable Calligraphy Biennale, 3D painter Aimi Sekiguchi blended take place in the metaverse are gaining more appreciation
Japanese art and Arabic calligraphy with VR technology to for their artistic value. For instance, Hello Games’ “No Man
of creative tools powered by create a unique immersive art experience that transformed Sky”—available on four VR platforms, including HTC VIVE
new technologies, artists are the city’s Al Wasl Plaza into a digital canvas, designed to and Oculus Rift—lets users embark on a visually arresting
deepen one’s appreciation for both cultures. And visitors journey across alien planets. As more virtual spaces for
increasingly blurring the lines wearing VR glasses grip onto a railing as they stand next to appreciating art emerge, traditional galleries and muse-
between the physical and digital the chariot atop Berlin’s Brandenburg Gate—in case they’re
overcome with vertigo—at a new exhibit at Humboldt Forum.
ums may see a decrease in attendance. People could start
to favor experiences that take place in the metaverse over
worlds. Complex installations Titled “Loot—10 Stories,” the temporary showcase, created the physical world, valuing the convenience it affords. This
in collaboration with The Hague’s Mauritshuis and several phenomenon could in turn promote a more sedentary way
showcasing mixed realities point other European museums, explores the history of stolen art of living, negatively impacting society’s overall physical and
toward a future where art is partly through a virtual lens. mental health.
increasingly harder to define.

AI GENERATED When The Hague put out a call for creative renditions of Ver-
meer’s “Girl with a Pearl Earring,” one of the works it chose
Creative educators—including Columbia University profes-
sor Lance Weiler—are increasingly integrating AI into their
FINE ART to exhibit was created using Midjourney. The Museum of

Modern Art in New York recently acquired AI data painter
curriculum, demonstrating a shift in the movement of art
driven by emerging technologies. The demand for digital art
Refik Anadol’s “Unsupervised—Machine Hallucinations,” is rising among mainstream audiences, in part because of
which reimagines images of artworks in the MoMA collec- how easily creators can gain a substantial global following
tion by running the museum’s visual archive through a ma- by simply sharing their works on social media. The surge
chine-learning model. And at London’s Frieze art fair, French of synthetic media makes it harder for conventional artists
WHAT IT IS Impressionism commingled with artificial intelligence in to generate fresh material that can’t be easily trumped or
“Jardins d’Été,” a digital series that showcased algorithmi- re-created by AI, forcing them to adapt. With masterclasses,
AI-powered creative tools are cally generated clips and prints of painterly blooms by art- bootcamps, and online tutorials on prompting so readily
ist Quayola, presented in partnership with electronics label accessible, anyone can learn how to use creative AI tools to
making it possible to create LG OLED. Artist Andrés Reisinger’s latest AI creation, “Take produce monetizable works. That said, while some artists
elaborate works of art nearly Over,” reimagines ordinary buildings in big cities by draping are embracing the new technology, others are strongly
them with a variety of pink fabrics meant to represent the against it, fearful that AI creations will dilute the art market,
instantaneously. Paintings individual personalities and styles of each place. At “Van devaluing pieces produced using traditional techniques—or
that traditionally require Gogh in Auvers-sur-Oise: The Final Months,” a new high-
tech exhibit at Musée d’Orsay, guests can converse with an
worse, that their works will be used to train AI systems with-
out consent. This is such a concern that they’re counting on
weeks to finish by hand can be AI version of the legendary Dutch artist. Meanwhile, Florida’s new anti-generative AI tools such as Nightshade, which pro-
Dalí Museum hosted a temporary exhibit called “The Shape tects artists’ original creations by confusing AI generators
produced by a computer with of Dreams” that used Dall-E to generate a “tapestry” featur- and corrupting their outputs. The EU’s Artificial Intelligence
just a few clicks and prompts ing artwork inspired by guests’ dreams. Act promises to keep AI systems in the region safe, trans-
parent, nondiscriminatory, and eco-friendly. It mandates
through increasingly affordable the disclosure of all content created using AI, and calls for
generative AI platforms, AI models to be updated to prevent them from generating
illicit content. How policymakers plan to reinforce the vague
empowering unskilled creatives and ambitious law remains to be seen.
to become fine artists.

CLIMATE INFILTRATES Last year, British painter James Hart Dyke retraced the
steps of the first climbers to reach Mont Blanc’s summit
Using an artistic canvas to design immersive and inter-
active experiences around sensitive environmental is-
ART AND 150 years ago; in a series of over 40 paintings that went on
exhibit at London’s Cromwell Place, he documented the
sues could ultimately prove very effective: the approach
might encourage audiences to better listen, deepening
PERFORMANCE devastating effect of climate change on Western Europe’s

highest mountain. At Art Dubai, AI artist Refik Anadol
their understanding of topics that are difficult to hear and
discuss and encouraging them to take action. Art can also
launched “Glacier Dreams,” a multisensory 3D display that help stretch the imagination, pushing innovators to come
highlighted the beauty and vulnerability of Iceland’s vol- up with creative solutions to the climate crisis. Chicago
WHAT IT IS canic glaciers, created to call attention to the dangers of sculptors Amber Ginsburg and Sara Black hold interactive
rising sea levels. In Delhi, a multisensorial exhibit invited workshops where participants use pencils—made from a
Artists and musicians are guests into a home that adapts to persistent air pollution. fallen tree infected with water mold due to stress caused by
The house communicated with its occupants through a the changing environment—to write and illustrate potential
leveraging their craft to bring message ticker connected to a network of particle sensors fixes to the growing problem. Big-ticket performers are in an
attention to environmental that provided real-time air quality notifications. In music, even better position to incite the masses, given the amount
Coldplay’s “Music of the Spheres” tour set a new high bar of influence they hold. If every musician adopted more
issues plaguing the planet, for concert sustainability. Meant to decrease the global sustainable practices while on tour, such as avoiding using
from global warming and series’ carbon footprint, the band’s eco-conscious efforts
included optimizing water efficiency and waste manage-
private jets and gas-guzzling vehicles, it’s a good bet the
global music industry’s carbon footprint—which amounts to
deforestation to animal ment, powering all operations with renewable energy and 540,000 tons of greenhouse gas emissions per year—would
biofuels, and reducing CO2 by funding the planting and shrink.
endangerment and reef protection of millions of new trees, one for every ticket sold.
preservation. And performers Climate activist band The 1975 also hosted the world’s first
“carbon-removed” live concert at London’s O2 Arena, where
are becoming more mindful organizers employed numerous methods to physically ex-
of how their touring habits are tract the carbon emissions generated by the show.
impacting the Earth.

SCENARIOS
SCENARIO YEAR 2030
The Art of Scent

Gone are the days when art was solely a visual or auditory experience. Now, scent-based artworks are taking center stage, offering a multidi-
mensional canvas that taps into the deep connection between scent, memory, and emotion.
In major urban centers, olfactory galleries have sprung up, becoming the epicenters of this renaissance. These spaces are architectural mar-
vels, equipped with advanced ventilation systems that ensure a clean olfactory slate for each artwork and sophisticated scent diffusion tech-
nologies that release and control the intensity of fragrances. Visitors explore these galleries, each room offering a new aromatic landscape, trig-
gering emotions ranging from the ethereal to unsettling. The artists behind these scents work with an array of aromatic compounds, skillfully
blending them to craft intricate olfactory narratives. They are stories, emotions, and experiences encapsulated in a whiff.
Interactivity is a cornerstone of these olfactory artworks. Many installations are designed to respond to the presence and actions of the audi-
ence. Through motion sensors and biometric scanners, the artwork detects the movement, heart rate, and even body temperature of visitors,
altering its scent output in real time. This creates a dynamic, personalized experience, where the artwork grows and shifts with its audience.
Technology has also democratized olfactory art, allowing for personalized creations based on individual histories and preferences. Advanced
algorithms analyze personal data to create bespoke scent compositions, offering a form of olfactory autobiography. These personalized scents
can be experienced through home diffusers, which utilize micro-nebulization technology to turn liquid fragrances into a fine mist, filling a
room with personalized aromatic art.

LOCATION-BASED
ENTERTAINMENT

VR IN LOCATION- Sandbox VR is producing a full-body LBVR experience based

on Netflix’s “Squid Game,” where contestants venture to
The latest development in VR comes from researchers at the
University of Tsukuba in Japan, who have devised a method
BASED iconic locations from the show to compete against one an-
other. Motion Reality, Springboard VR, and Zero Latency all
for inducing hot or cold sensations instantaneously—with-
out altering the temperature of a space or a person’s body.
ENTERTAINMENT host similar free-roaming experiences for visitors equipped

with tetherless VR and motion-capture gear to engage in
The revolutionary system allows developers to simulate
real-world thermal conditions in a VR environment, adding
highly immersive multiplayer battles set in massive virtual an extra element of realism. This newfound ability enables
arenas. Family-friendly providers of standalone VR expe- the creation of even more immersive experiences while
WHAT IT IS riences include Dreamscape and Divr Labs, which invites avoiding the effects of changing temperatures, which can
guests to embark on virtual adventures set in fantasy negatively impact users’ health. MIT minds have developed
Location-based entertainment realms, from a prehistoric jungle to an apocalyptic zombie BrightMarker, an invisible tagging system that employs
land. Players feel the wind on their faces, the heat on their hidden fluorescent tags embedded in physical objects to
(LBE) offers high-fidelity backs, and the ground shaking beneath them as they navi- improve motion tracking and object detection in VR expe-
experiences that take place in a gate the 1,600-square-foot multisensory playground. “Space riences. Optimizing equipment and simplifying controls in
Explorers: The Infinite” transports guests to the Internation- virtual settings—such as requiring subtle hand motions
set physical space as opposed al Space Station, where they can learn all about the daily instead of using handheld devices to take action—can make
to exclusively online. Amusement lives of astronauts. And guests decked out in YULLBE Pro VR encounters more intuitive and user-friendly, widening
VR gear can discover what it’s like to navigate the world as their appeal to include less tech-savvy consumers. Though
parks, arcades, and other leisure a miniature-size person in Hamburg’s Miniatur Wunder- VR is isolating in nature, integrating it into LBE helps foster
venues are incorporating more VR land. Other room-scale VR providers such as Hologate and a communal sense by encouraging people to gather in a
Virtual Room, which specializes in VR escape games, offer low-stakes setting and work together (or playfully compete
into their products and services, more space-efficient and affordable VR encounters. Seat- against each other). Access to ultrarealistic VR experiences
leveraging the digital medium to ed VR—such as Triotech’s The Storm, a two-seat, coin-op might also provide thrill seekers a way to relish the exhil-
VR simulator supported by 4D effects—allows audiences aration of performing dangerous, rip-roaring acts without
create immersive localized social to enjoy passive experiences in even more compact areas, actually putting themselves or others at risk, ultimately
activities designed to enliven all such as immersive pods. And Iconic Engine’s Holometric reducing the number of deaths and injuries caused by reck-
4D haptic-motion chair enables stunning extended reality less behavior.
the senses. experiences.

AR IN LOCATION- Universal’s Super Nintendo World—soon to arrive in Orlando

as part of the company’s Epic Universe—serves as a life-
Augmented reality, which brings virtual objects into the
physical world, is enabling entertainment developers to
BASED size, complex video game enhanced by AR and VR elements

that combine physical props and projection mapping
create more personalized interactive experiences for con-
sumers. It blends in with analog reality, and is more flexible
ENTERTAINMENT technology. Last summer, Rock Paper Reality launched a

new location-based AR experience that transformed San
to integrate than VR, which completely isolates users. And
it has the potential to provide a different type of thrill—one
Francisco’s Japantown with custom 3D digital origami driven by fictional characters that inhabit the real world, as
works. The project was enabled by the integration of Goo- opposed to an alternate universe. Guests can unlock hid-
WHAT IT IS gle’s Geospatial Creator platform with Adobe Aero, which den AR prizes or collectibles only accessible inside a theme
lets developers construct, preview, and publish 3D and AR park, which they can later retrieve via an accompanying
Augmented reality provides a content anchored in the physical world. Escape Virtuality in app. Companies can then leverage the data they collect to
New York City boasts an AR rock climbing wall that lets kids formulate more targeted offerings, with the goal of driving
more affordable and accessible and adults alike choose from a variety of digital challeng- overall engagement. Consider Pokémon Go: the popular
way to enhance experiences es with different configurations that limit how and where game, which has sent millions of people armed with only
they climb. At Universal Studios Hollywood, guests put on their smartphones all over the Earth in search of digital
than VR, and the rapidly-evolving AR goggles that snap into an iconic red Mario cap to race monsters, continues to thrive eight years after its launch,
technology is positioned to in “Mario Kart: Bowser’s Challenge,” where they can throw demonstrating AR’s tremendous reach and potential to
shells at their opponents by simply turning their heads bring people together.
become the cornerstone of LBE and looking in the direction they want to aim. Recently, the
entertainment in the coming years. park’s parent company applied for a patent for an AR ride
system that incorporates facial and skeletal recognition
It boasts countless applications technology, suggesting future Universal theme park rides
in the industry, from competitive will be capable of transforming guests into different char-
acters or creatures.
socializing to the gamification of
the theme park experience.

BLOCKCHAIN Blockchain technology has many potential applications

at theme parks, not the least of which is ticketing optimi-
The emergence of location-based NFTs is driving collec-
tors to be more adventurous, pushing them to explore the
INTEGRATIONS zation. Users can have password-protected wallets with

unique digital codes that trigger final payment and ticket
outdoors and spend less time sedentary, fixated on their
computers. It also creates a stronger sense of community
transfer once they pass the gate. Blockchain technology among users, encouraging them to come together in per-
could also be used to create a more flexible system for son to unearth hidden NFTs. For theme parks, integrating
express-pass purchases through smart contracts. Guests blockchain technology into ticketing operations reduces
could purchase tokens at a premium to bid on the rides the risk of counterfeit tickets slipping through the cracks
WHAT IT IS and times they want, creating an efficient demand-based and removes the need for guests to bring ID and paper
system. printouts, speeding up the admission process. Parks that
Web3 is poised to disrupt business Superlocal, a location-based NFT built on the Ethereum
incorporate smart contracts to create a bidding system
for rides could monitor which attractions command the
strategies and operations in the blockchain, rewards users with digital currency and collect- highest token prices, allowing them to pinpoint the most
entertainment industry, offering ibles as they venture to different places around the globe.
Likewise, Lost Worlds is incentivizing creators to launch
popular ones. They could also leverage blockchain capabil-
ities to create new digital currencies, which—if not used up
new ways to combat piracy and their own geoNFTs in the real world by dangling badges, by the end of a visit—could be exchanged back into local
boost efficiency, security, and tokens, and exclusive NFTs. And ReBASE, an NFT platform
built on the Solana blockchain, urges users to attend group
currency, unlike traditional park dollars. Increasing block-
chain fatigue and disillusionment surrounding its ease of
transparency through blockchain sessions held at designated locations to mint exclusive use, however, threaten to derail the promising technology’s
technology. Destination-based drops. On a related note, Disney partnered with Andrees-
sen Horowitz–backed Cryptoys to produce limited-edition
upward trajectory.
NFTs—which can only be minted collectible NFTs featuring Mickey Mouse, Minnie Mouse, and
at specific physical locations—are Pluto (similar to the “Star Wars” NFT set released in 2022).
And “Free Renfield” granted fans of the Universal Pictures
also encouraging sedentary NFT film “Renfield” the chance to win a number of Dracula-in-
collectors to step away from their spired rewards, including a digital art collection of individ-
ualized prizes that can be minted and traded through the
screens and venture outdoors. Aptos blockchain.

ASSISTIVE Upon entering Dubai’s Museum of the Future, guests are

greeted by Ameca—an AI-powered humanoid robot that
Assistive robots that can follow people have the potential to
serve up personalized services to theme-park guests on the
AMUSEMENT PARK can answer questions, make facial expressions, and track
movement. Disney recently filed a patent for a robotic arm
spot, boosting the amount of time spent on attractions by
saving trips to customer service kiosks. And pairing cus-
ROBOTS that can lift passenger compartments from one ride track
to another. Soon after, the company unveiled an emotive,
tomers with attentive robot companions will make guests
feel more seen and heard, despite the lack of real human
two-legged android that can follow people around. And at interaction. With the ability to display convincing emotion,
SXSW 2023, the entertainment company introduced a new automated bots programmed to have a high degree of emo-
WHAT IT IS robot—modeled after “Zootopia” character Judy Hopps—that tional intelligence could assess visitors’ outward mood and
uses motion-capture data to create lifelike performances behavior and instantly create experiences tailored to meet
Robots are no longer just intended to have a deeper emotional impact. The House of their individual wants and needs. Tesla has also hugely
Mouse’s patent for a “robotic sherpa”—an autonomous mo- improved its Optimus bots: Able to detect and memorize
sitting pretty at theme parks. bile locker that will follow guests while storing their belong- environments, the autonomous humanoids could prove
Beyond enhancing animatronic ings and interacting with them—was also finally approved. useful in streamlining operations at entertainment ven-
Meanwhile, Universal has filed a patent for an edible soft ues. If innovators succeed in creating a fully independent
experiences, androids are robotic system that will showcase or interact with consum- self-replicating robot assembly system that can build
increasingly being put to able inflatable objects. And MIT researchers are at the brink
of finding a way to create a system of tiny robots that can
large-scale structures, the cost of constructing rides and
other attractions at theme parks—both in terms of time and
work, bolstering services and quickly assemble large-scale structures, from buildings money—could significantly drop, improving a company’s
and vehicles to larger robots. RoboFab—the world’s first bottom line. That said, the demand for Robots-as-a-Ser-
operations on a whole new factory for humanoid robots (created by Agility Robotics, vice—which involves robotic companies offering use of their
level. which specializes in biped droids able to navigate complex products and services to companies through subscrip-
environments)—can churn out 10,000 robots per year. Digit, tion-based contracts—stands to skyrocket, with more and
the company’s flagship model, can perform tasks such as more companies choosing to automate their systems. The
climbing stairs, opening doors, and carrying boxes. growing trend doesn’t bode well for human workers, who are
increasingly at risk of being replaced by robotic solutions.

AMUSEMENT Guests at Leander Springs in Texas can enjoy EpicSurf, a

stationary surfing experience that produces deep-water
Influenced by the rising cost of admission and increasing
availability of cheap in-home entertainment, consumers
PARKS FOR NICHE waves, which can be adjusted depending on a person’s

skill level. Coming to Saudi Arabia, The Rig—an eco-friendly
might be less inclined to visit theme parks. In an effort to
stand out, new venues are targeting audiences with more
INTERESTS park that will only be accessible via boat or helicopter—is

set to offer a variety of extreme sports and other adrena-
niche interests—not just in the physical world but also in
the digital realm. Virtual theme parks are giving those un-
line-fueled adventures, from bungee jumping and paraglid- able to afford high ticket prices the opportunity to enjoy at-
ing to roller-coaster rides and submarine dives. Storyliving tractions for free online, further democratizing theme parks.
WHAT IT IS by Disney will allow diehard fans to own a home in a gated But more exclusive venues in far-flung, hard-to-reach places
community staffed by Disney cast members. The first like Saudi Arabia’s The Rig are also emerging, poised to
Amusement parks are location, set in the Greater Palm Springs area, will feature alienate all but the elite. And designing exclusive neighbor-
parks and promenades designed by Disney Imagineers. hoods to act as extensions of theme parks could potentially
constantly evolving to meet Disney also recently filed a patent for drive-thru theme dull the magic for residents in the long term, since they
consumers’ increasingly parks that envisions visitors driving into an immersive might grow to take the theme-park treatment for granted.
pod to be entertained while they await curbside orders or
diverse interests. But instead for their car to charge. Former Six Flags park AstroWorld
of broadening their scope, is being reincarnated in the metaverse, set to become the
world’s first amusement park built entirely on the block-
some theme parks are opting chain. AstroWorld NFTs will offer unlimited access to the
digital model of the amusement hub, which will host car-
to narrow their focus and nival games, arcades, themed events, and virtual coasters.
differentiate themselves by Meanwhile, a new theme park dedicated to horror experi-
ences is arriving in Japan. Called Immersive Fort Tokyo, the
appealing to smaller audiences, fully indoor destination will offer guests highly individual-
from sports fanatics and fright ized experiences, including the chance to become charac-
ters in a live-action murder mystery.
aficionados to adrenaline
junkies.

INTUITIVE Universal filed a patent application for a crowd manage-

ment system that would grant it the ability to control the
Theme parks are increasingly implementing new ways to
not only monitor visitors and gather as much informa-
OPTIMIZATION movements of guests around its parks through wireless

devices. The proposed method would deliver instructions
tion from them as possible but also control their behavior.
Though such measures benefit guests by offering them
to individual visitors, potentially requiring them to see at- more personalized experiences and minimizing wait times,
tractions or do activities at a certain time or in a particular it could impinge on their freedom to enjoy attractions at
order to ensure traffic remains evenly distributed through- their own pace, as they please. Guests might feel pressured
out the park. The company is also incorporating facial rec- or overwhelmed if forced to follow strict schedules, de-
WHAT IT IS ognition technology at its Orlando theme parks, including creasing their level of satisfaction. Incorporating outside
the upcoming Epic Universe. The photo validation system intelligence into in-park findings to better engage guests
Theme parks are leveraging AI and will capture images of visitors upon their initial entry and and anticipate their needs might also be perceived as overly
control their access to certain parts of the park depending intrusive, making visitors feel uncomfortable and deterring
the Internet of Things—coupled on their ticket tier. WaveTec’s queue management system them from revisiting. Accessing customers’ personal de-
with data gleaned from in-park enables theme parks to offer virtual lines, real-time queue tails also leaves them susceptible to hacking. Beyond that,
tracking, personalized notifications, and better premium there’s the question of how long theme parks will store vis-
platforms, mobile apps, and access. Pixera 2.0—a media server system that can be used itor information and how they intend to use the data in the
wearables—to analyze customer to control immersive experiences, rides, queues, visuals, future. In leveraging technology to optimize operations and
and more—serves as a platform from which operators can improve their offerings, theme parks have to be careful not
behavior and create more interact with several technologies at once. Hey Disney is to make visitors feel like mindless sheep that can easily be
customized experiences. The next now available for consumers to purchase as an annual, controlled and exploited for intelligence. Though intended
auto-renewing subscription in the US. First introduced in to speed up queues, the use of facial recognition could also
step is finding a way to combine 2021, the interactive voice assistant—which connects Dis- introduce a new host of issues, including racial profiling—a
first-party data with information ney’s Genie AI with Amazon’s Alexa—allows users to inter- problem that often arises in conjunction with the emerging
act with beloved Disney, Pixar, and “Star Wars” characters technology.
sourced from outside the park through Echo devices at home and at select Disney Resorts
ecosystem for even greater hotels, extending their experience well beyond the confines
of a theme park.
efficiency and customization.

DYNAMIC Cmd-Ctr boosted Legoland Windsor Resort UK’s ride ca-

pacity by 10% by allowing ride managers to identify and
Flexible pricing has provided amusement parks with a
much-needed method of generating additional revenue to
OPERATIONS prioritize “unsung hero” attractions with higher capacities.

The cloud-based park operations system empowers opera-
fund the exceedingly immersive experiences customers
are demanding . As XR rides and AI-powered adventures
tors to capture data and conduct safety checks while rides become the new gold standard, the cost of building and
are in operation, boosting efficiency. Meanwhile, Disney maintaining theme-park attractions will only continue to
has been able to increase Disney World’s capacity by 30% rise. Until there are cheaper ways to design and manufac-
using insights from its complex data analytics system. And ture high-tech offerings, customers will have to get used to
WHAT IT IS Calypso Water Park recently introduced RFID wristbands climbing variable prices. Fully relying on algorithms to de-
that guests can use to make in-park payments and store termine prices removes human sensibility from the process,
Theme parks are leveraging data season passes (similar to Disney’s MagicBand+). More leaving parks at risk of experiencing wildly absurd surges
theme parks—most recently, three of Six Flags’ biggest driven by unexpected spikes in demand, including poten-
to sway customers’ decisions locations—are also instituting dynamic pricing, which tially from scalpers. Take for instance Japan’s Ghibli Park,
regarding when they will visit and involves adjusting single-day ticket prices according to where rampant scalping during its 2022 opening weekend
the level of demand, in order to even out crowds. Compa- forced customers to pay illicit vendors more than 2,000% of
what they will do during their stay, nies say the algorithm-driven strategy allows them to offer the original ticket price to get a reservation. (The park has
employing tactics such as surge a better guest experience, since it helps mitigate crowds since banned the unauthorized reselling of tickets, though
at parks and keeps their staff and resources from being it’s unclear how well that rule is enforced.) Employing dy-
pricing and push notifications that stretched too thin. namic pricing could also damage a theme park’s reputation
keep visitors up to date on wait among its true-blue fans, ultimately decreasing customer
loyalty and engagement. If theme park experiences do not
times. significantly evolve or improve despite frequent price surg-
es, park attendance might drastically drop as guests deem
the discrepancy between expected and actual cost increas-
ingly unwarranted and outrageous.

IMMERSIVE MUSEUM Arcadia Earth, an environmental art exhibit in New York

City, engages visitors through holographic orb guides
Integrating interactive technology into exhibitions and
utilizing walls as extensions of canvases create more
EXPERIENCES that they can see through HoloLens, Microsoft’s AR smart

glasses. Creative collective Meow Wolf’s new immersive
mesmerizing, meaningful displays that leave longer lasting
impressions on guests. VR and AR offerings give visitors of
art museum in Houston, its fifth permanent project in the all ages the opportunity to engage with lifesize creatures
US, houses interactive multimedia installations by local they wouldn’t be able to interact with in the wild, while inter-
artists. New York’s Artechouse, a modern space exclusively acting with 3D renditions of historical figures offers guests
dedicated to tech-infused art, collaborated with NASA to a more intimate educational experience meant to deepen
WHAT IT IS create Beyond the Light, a new informative and interactive their connection with the subject. Set to open in 2027, a pro-
show that recounts how humans have experienced light posed London Tunnels installation featuring hi-res, large-
As society becomes more tech over time using the latest audio-visual technology. And scale screens will reveal the story of a former WWII bomb
the city’s new House of Cannabis is chock-full of multisen- shelter and secret M16 outpost. And an ongoing exhibit at
savvy, visitors at traditional sory trappings, including a trippy Disorientation Room. In the Berlin-Hohenschönhausen Memorial’s museum invites
institutions—including museums, Tokyo’s Azabudai Hills, the newly reopened TeamLab Bor- visitors to interact with contemporary witnesses who previ-
derless: Mori Building Digital Art Museum features tech-in- ously worked at the Stasi prison, generated using Volucap’s
zoos, galleries, and aquariums— fused works that react to guests and transform in their volumetric technology.
are expecting attractions to presence, creating a unique experience for every visitor.
On a similar vein, TeamLab Planets invites visitors to wade
be increasingly smart and through water and wander through an ever-changing gar-
captivating. VR, AR, and 4D den of 13,000 real orchids that bloom midair. Meanwhile,
Axiom Holographics’ augmented reality zoo—a showcase of
elements are breathing new laser-light 3D creatures—lets guests dive with a whale or
life into artworks, animals, and swim with a hippo.
artifacts, making educational

showcases more playful and
interactive.

THEME PARKS Channeling the power of IoT and advanced data analytics,
many theme parks are installing smart grid systems—elec-
Increasing consumption will further strain Earth’s resourc-
es, making it important for companies to find ways to
GO GREEN tric networks that leverage advanced technologies to track,

control, and optimize their energy usage and distribution.
mitigate the impact of human activities on the planet. Amid
worsening climate change, consumers are becoming in-
Typhoon Texas and Wild Wadi Waterpark both use vari- creasingly concerned about the environment, pushing them
able frequency drives on all their pumps to help minimize to support brands and companies that prioritize sustain-
energy consumption. Six Flags uses cooking oil from its ability over profits. So it’s crucial for theme park companies
own kitchens to fuel trains and vehicles at four of its parks, to adopt more sustainable practices—not just to decrease
WHAT IT IS and Disneyland’s steam trains are powered by biofuel. their carbon footprint but to improve their brand reputation.
PortAventura World in Spain runs completely on renewable Given their massive size and scale, amusement parks could
In an effort to decrease their energy and is 100% carbon neutral. Dedicated to combating potentially become self-sufficient autarchies independent
climate change, France’s DéfiPlanet was built on the values from the grid, creating their own circular economy. They
carbon footprint amid worsening of a circular economy, waste management, and corporate could incentivize visitors to go along with their sustainable
climate change, amusement responsibility. And Dubai Parks and Resorts is develop- efforts by gamifying eco-friendly initiatives (such as reward-
ing a new water treatment plant that will safely recycle ing guests who recycle with digital tokens or currencies that
parks are incorporating more eco- its lagoon water. Copenhagen’s Tivoli Gardens has run a they can exchange for food or merchandise), or monetize
friendly features—from renewable recycling program since 1998, keeping 1.2 million plastic the renewable energy they produce.
cups from being landfilled per year. And Universal Studios
energy installations and electric- Hollywood is aiming to transition to a fully electric fleet of
powered vehicles to water trams by 2025. On a larger scale, Six Flags Magic Mountain
is installing a new solar carport and energy storage sys-
conservation systems and large- tem over its main parking lot that will annually produce
scale recycling programs. 20.8 million kilowatt-hours of electricity, enough to offset
100% of the park’s energy usage. And Six Flags Over Texas is
currently testing a waste disposal system that decreases
landfill waste using microorganisms, which work to break
down the refuse.

SCENARIOS
SCENARIO YEAR 2040
Theme Park in a Box

The effects of climate change have deeply impacted travel: Extreme weather events cause frequent flight cancellations, wildfires
(and the clouds of smoke they bring), floods, and storms devastate wide swaths of land, and stringent ESG requirements have
increased costs all around (to either offset CO2 emissions or finance environmentally sustainable business practices). The ozone
layer has become so diminished that it is dangerous to spend extended time outdoors.
Theme park visitor numbers have greatly declined as a result. To offset losses and continue to allow families to engage with their
different franchises, companies have created a “Theme Park-in-a-Box,” enabling families to have a communal theme park experi-
ence without leaving their home.
The product is a software solution that enables multi-reality adventures and tabs into the different technologies ubiquitous in
homes: smart kitchens, 3D printers, connected appliances, haptics, and XR devices. Outfitted in their haptic suits and VR-head-
sets in place, a family logs into the virtual theme-park universe as their avatars of choice, mingling with the other (virtual) visitors,
which are indistinguishable from animated fantasy figures, there to entertain and engage the guests. The sensors integrated into
the haptic suits capture physical and emotional responses in real-time, so that each ride is adjusted to fit the thrill-profile of the
visitor, allowing families to experience rollercoasters and haunted houses communally. Stuffed animals and other mementos
picked out in the virtual shopping square are printed out with the home 3D printer. Once it’s time for a deserved break from all the
adventures, meals ordered from the park can be delivered at home within 15 minutes by a nearby restaurant, as local restaurants
have partnered with theme parks to create a lucrative side business that benefits their neighborhoods.

AUTHORS &
CONTRIBUTORS

CHRISTINA VON MESSLING Co-author

Senior Manager KRISTIN TABLANG
Life Sciences practice area at Future Today Institute. She is re- Chief Executive Officer
nowned for her expertise in strategic foresight and an unparalleled AMY WEBB
ability to navigate complex industry landscapes. With a career span-
Managing Director
ning over two decades, she has guided multinational corporations
MELANIE SUBIN
through transformative strategies, leveraging his deep understanding of market dynamics and future
trends.
Creative Director
EMILY CAUFIELD
Christina’s diverse experience across sectors enables her to craft visionary scenarios and strategies,
driving sustainable growth and innovation for clients worldwide. Having split her time between Europe,
Editor
the UK, Brazil, and the US, she combines a global perspective with in-depth, holistic expertise of the
ERICA PETERSON
main drivers of change: technology, geopolitical, economic, and societal developments. She has
advised leading pharmaceutical and healthcare companies, as well as beauty, entertainment, media, Copy Editor
and retail brands. SARAH JOHNSON
holds a Masters in Law from the Freie Universität Berlin, where she graduated within the top 10% of the
CHERYL COONEY
nation. She works from offices in New York City, Berlin, and London.

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17TH EDITION

166 WEB3 733 SPORTS

207 METAVERSE 776 SPACE

257 BIOENGINEERING 840 HOSPITALITY

328 ENERGY & CLIMATE 882 SUPPLY CHAIN & LOGISTICS

401 MOBILITY, ROBOTICS & DRONES 919 ENTERTAINMENT

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THE YEAR AHEAD: TECH SUPERCYCLE

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FUTURE TODAY INSTITUTE’S 2024 TECH TREND REPORT

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IMPACT OF TRENDS ON YOUR INDUSTRY

Near-Term Relevance Long-Term Relevance

Computing AR/ VR/ XR Web3

Aviation and Travel

Consumer Packaged Goods

Government and Policy

Health Care Systems and Services

Pharmaceutical and Medical Products

Public and Social Sectors

Space and Aerospace Defense

Supply Chain and Logistics

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ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE WEB3 M E TAV E R S E & N E W R E A L I T I E S

BIOENGINEERING E N E R GY & C L I M AT E M O B I L I T Y, R O B OT S & D R O N E S

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H E A LT H C A R E & M E D I C I N E F I N A N C I A L S E RV I C E S & I N S U R A N C E SPORTS

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S PAC E H O S P I TA L I T Y & R E S TAU R A N T S

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How quickly will AI revolutionize business,

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Stratification Scales by Function or Task

Efficiency Optimization in the Back Office Bolstered Productivity and Performance

NEXT SCENARIO | THREATS & OPPORTUNITITES | STRATEGIC QUESTIONS | RETURN TO UNCERTAINTIES

Cautious Scaling in Complex Industries Agile Scaling in Less-Regulated Industries

NEXT SCENARIO | THREATS & OPPORTUNITITES | STRATEGIC QUESTIONS | RETURN TO UNCERTAINTIES

AI Scales Up for Consumers

AI Serves as a Creative Playground A Revolutionary Consumer-Facing Assistant

THREATS & OPPORTUNITITES | STRATEGIC QUESTIONS | RETURN TO UNCERTAINTIES

OPPORTUNITIES & THREATS

1 Workforce disruption 1 Increased productivity and efficiency

2 Regulatory non-compliance 2 Enhanced data-driven decision-making

3 Data privacy issues 3 Competitive differentiation

STRATEGIC QUESTIONS | RETURN TO UNCERTAINTIES

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What global challenges will bioengineering

Better Living Infrastructure Resilience Securing Agricultural Infrastructure

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The Never Retiring Widening Self-Sustaining Community-Focused

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Subscribe or Die The Never Retiring Workforce

NEXT SCENARIO | THREATS & OPPORTUNITITES | STRATEGIC QUESTIONS | RETURN TO UNCERTAINTIES

Widening Societal Gap Self-Sustaining Highways (The End to Infrastructure Bills?)

NEXT SCENARIO | THREATS & OPPORTUNITITES | STRATEGIC QUESTIONS | RETURN TO UNCERTAINTIES

Securing Agricultural Infrastructure

World War Food Community-Focused Food

THREATS & OPPORTUNITITES | STRATEGIC QUESTIONS | RETURN TO UNCERTAINTIES

OPPORTUNITIES & THREATS