Tr2024 Executive Summary Final Linked

17TH EDITION • 2024 TECH TRENDS REPORT
EXECUTIVE
SUMMARY
2024 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
THE YEAR AHEAD: TECH SUPERCYCLE
The theme for our 2024 re- Institute’s analysis shows that every technology—AR/ VR/ We’ve visually represented the tech supercycle on the
port is Supercycle. In eco- XR, autonomous vehicles, low Earth orbit satellites, to report’s cover, which is an undulating image reminiscent
nomics, a “supercycle” refers name a few—connects to the supercycle in some way. of a storm radar. Vertical and horizontal lines mark the
to an extended period of edges of each section’s cover. When all 16 section cov-
The ramifications are stark and undeniable. As this tech
booming demand, elevating ers converge, the trends reveal a compounding effect as
supercycle unfurls, there will be victors and vanquished,
the prices of commodities reverberating aftershocks influence every other area of
those who seize the reins of this epochal change, and
and assets to unprecedented heights. It stretches across technology and science, as well as all industries.
those who are swallowed whole. For business leaders,
years, even decades, and is driven by substantial and
investors, and policymakers, understanding this tech It’s the convergence that matters. In isolation, trends of-
sustained structural changes in the economy.
supercycle is paramount. fer limited foresight into the future. Instead, the interplay
We believe we have entered a technology supercycle. of these trends is what reveals long-term change. For
In this 17th edition of FTI’s annual Tech Trends report,
This wave of innovation is so potent and pervasive that that reason, organizations must not only remain vigilant
we’ve connected the supercycle to the nearly 700 trends
it promises to reshape the very fabric of our existence, in monitoring these evolving trends but also in cultivat-
we’ve developed. Our research is presented across 16
from the intricacies of global supply chains to the minu- ing strategic foresight—the ability to anticipate future
technology and industry-specific reports that reveal the
tiae of daily habits, from the corridors of power in global changes and plan for various scenarios.
current state of play and lists of influencers to watch,
politics to the unspoken norms that govern our social
along with detailed examples and recommendations de- Our world is changing at an unprecedented rate, and this
interactions.
signed to help executives and their teams develop their supercycle has only just begun.
Driving this seismic shift are the titans of technology strategic positioning. The trends span evolutionary ad-
and three of their inventions: artificial intelligence, bio- vancements in well-established technologies to ground-
technology, and a burgeoning ecosystem of interconnect- breaking developments at the forefront of technological
ed wearable devices for people, pets, and objects. As they and scientific exploration. You’ll see emerging epicenters Amy Webb
converge, these three macro tech segments will redefine of innovation and risk, along with a preview into their Chief Executive Officer
our relationship with everything, from our pharmacists to transformative effects across various industries. Future Today Institute
our animals, from banks to our own bodies. Future Today
2 © 2024 Future Today Institute. All Rights Reserved.

FUTURE TODAY INSTITUTE’S 2024 TECH TRENDS REPORT
Our 2024 edition includes nearly 700 trends, which are published individually in 16 volumes and as one comprehensive report with all trends included.
Download all sections of Future Today Institute’s 2024 Tech Trends report at http://www.futuretodayinstitute.com/trends.

IMPACT OF TRENDS ON YOUR INDUSTRY
Near-Term Relevance Long-Term Relevance
Computing AR/ VR/ XR Web3

Generative Robots and Climate and
AI Generative AI Bioengineering & Synthetic Metaverse Mobility Quantum
Bio Architecture Infrastructure Drones Green Tech
Media
Agriculture
Automotive
Aviation and Travel
Construction, Engineering
Consumer Packaged Goods
Education
Financial Services
Government and Policy
Health Care Systems and Services
Hospitality
Media (Entertainment)
Media (News)
Pharmaceutical and Medical Products
Public and Social Sectors
Real Estate
Restaurants
Retail
Space and Aerospace Defense
Supply Chain and Logistics
Telecommunications

2024
TRENDS
Trends are what we can know about today and are based on
data and evidence. This year’s trend report covers hundreds of
technology trends across various industries and categories.

TRENDS
ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE WEB3 M E TAV E R S E & N E W R E A L I T I E S
While the hype continues, now is the time to prepare. Quiet developments and new regulations grow Web3. Developments indicate a possible inflection point.
AI is a transformative, general-purpose technology with While the industry reeled from failures and Apple’s new headset leverages AI to overlay digital onto
the potential to influence entire economies and alter bankruptcies over the last year, developers have reality, representing a pivot from fantasy metaverses
society. From multi-modal AI to self-improving agents continued to develop new capabilities and features, to real-life applications that may signal maturity.
and wearables with on-board assistants, the ecosystem moving ever closer to real-life practical applications Meanwhile, complementary features to enhance virtual
is rapidly changing. While AI advancements promise for Web3. As regulations are on the horizon to be experiences are being developed. Though device costs
to reshape our world, emerging trends highlight implemented in 2024, this could be a year of inflection, are an ongoing barrier, integrating AI and XR creates
unprecedented risks, underscoring the need for bringing Web3 from the experimental and theoretical to fundamental synergies, potentially marking the
preparedness, governance, and alignment. cold hard business cases. watershed moment the industry has been waiting for.
BIOENGINEERING E N E R GY & C L I M AT E M O B I L I T Y, R O B OT S & D R O N E S
Brace for impact in this breakthrough year. Emerging and tested tech comes together for progress. Challenges remain for electrification and autonomy.
Recent breakthroughs have accelerated the As the effects of climate change become more dire, Consumers are adapting to electric and semi-
convergence of biology, information systems, and governments are considering a more exotic set of tech- autonomous vehicles and those that collect increasing
advanced platforms, and attention has been focused nologies to combat the situation. Solar geoengineering, data. At the same time, battery technology is increasing,
on generative AI. Very soon, that focus will shift to ocean chemistry manipulation, and domed cities are enabling vehicles, robots, and drones to perform longer.
generative biology, where AI models will lead to the all concepts that gained significant traction in 2023. The rise of these machines suggests a future where they
creation of novel molecules, drugs, materials, and living Meanwhile, significant gains have been made in en- supplement and replace human tasks, highlighting a
organisms. While biotech promises to reshape our abling infrastructure for renewable energy, focusing on shift towards a more efficient, increasingly monitored
world, it also requires preparedness and governance. smart grids, energy storage, and carbon tracking. work environment.

TRENDS
COMPUTING B U I LT E N V I R O N M E N T N E W S & I N F O R M AT I O N
AI is transforming human-computer interaction. Automation and data collection transform practices. The news ecosystem hits an inflection point.
AI is changing what is possible in form factors, In an industry used to following traditional practices, Emerging technologies like generative AI are shaping
challenging underlying computing architecture. the past years have upended decade-old norms. Such the future of content creation, distribution, and mone-
Researchers are pursuing energy-efficient architectures shifts can provide critical solutions to new questions tization. New applications of AI are reshaping the media
by reverse engineering the complex biological efficiencies and signify a turning point that redefines industry value change and forging new consumer behaviors for
of the human brain. As AI facilitates more intuitive standards and operational efficiency. This pivotal information search and discovery. In the year ahead, the
communication, the technology could blend more moment underscores the need for strategic adaptation, initial frenzy of ChatGPT prompt hacking and product
seamlessly into human experiences, with computing heralding a reinvention phase in response to evolving launches based on large language models will fade, but
centered directly around people rather than devices. demands and technological advancements. the information ecosystem will never be the same.
H E A LT H C A R E & M E D I C I N E F I N A N C I A L S E RV I C E S & I N S U R A N C E SPORTS
The barrier between digital and biological is vanishing. Modernization is slow, but consumers are ready to run. Analytics and customization are transforming sports.
The merging of digital and biological worlds enables a The financial services sector, dominated by legacy Technology is enhancing the capabilities of managers,
whole new range of treatments, the most exciting being giants, is facing a critical juncture where embracing coaches, athletes, and fans. Teams and leagues are
cells within our bodies that can produce medication technology like open banking, digital identity, and seeing progress in scouting, training, performance
in response to external stimuli. Conversely, cyberbio- blockchain is not just advantageous but imperative. analytics, and rehabilitation thanks to tools like mixed
malware creates new, existential threats to our health This industry must shift from reactive to proactive, reality, computer vision, and AI. Smarter stadiums offer
that we are unaware we need to protect ourselves underscoring the importance of anticipation and unique, immersive experiences, driving engagement and
against. Both developments have the potential to upend preparedness in navigating the future of the financial revenue streams that support further improvements in a
the pharmaceutical and healthcare industry completely. and insurance industries. game’s quality and spectator experiences.

TRENDS
S PAC E H O S P I TA L I T Y & R E S TAU R A N T S
Space exploration is entering a new era. Tech-driven efficiency can’t replace personalization.
Defined by old geopolitical rifts and new spacefaring Contactless payments, immersive pre-experiences,
nations, this emerging era goes beyond past dynamics augmentations that recognize a guest’s personalized
to involve a broader constellation of smaller nations needs upon entering the premise, and automated back-
and private enterprises, all enabled by the decreasing of-house functions offer opportunities for owners and
cost of space access. With lowered launch costs, zero operators to capitalize on that can provide elevated
gravity could unlock scientific discoveries previously experiences and a reduction in overhead costs—but
impossible. The dream of a multi-planetary humanity human workers might hold these positions, driving an
stirs deep questions about our priorities. ongoing tension between efficiency and a personal touch.
S U P P LY C H A I N & LO G I S T I C S E N T E R TA I N M E N T
Real-time data and instant everything shape new terrain. AI’s impact on live entertainment is just beginning.
Regional instability, materials disruptions, Taylor Swift’s concert film demonstrated that secondary
manufacturing relocation, and labor tensions create live experiences resonate deeply. Add to that haptics,
hardship for businesses and manufacturers trying to holographic transmission in real-time, and climate
bring their goods to consumers, who are also becoming considerations that have consumers looking for
more demanding. As businesses strive to meet these local options, and a whole new world of performance
demands, they will be compelled to rethink their experiences opens up. These developments create
strategies, technologies, and workflows, marking a completely new ways to engage with content and
pivotal moment in the report on industry trends. opportunities for new business models.

LIKELY NEAR TERM DEVELOPMENTS • ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE
GENERAL ENTERPRISE AUTOMATION REGULATION AND GEOPOLITICS
Commoditization of General Purpose Models Talent Shift in AI Industry AI Assistants Transform Coding Landscape US Strategy on AI and China Relations
In the near future, expect the commoditization of Expect a significant talent crunch as top innova- AI coding assistants, such as GitHub’s Copilot The US is expected to intensify efforts to get allies
general purpose models. LLMs are becoming widely tors depart major tech giants like Google, OpenAI, and Meta’s Code Llama, are transforming software to limit their collaborations with China in AI de-
accessible and integral to app development. As and Meta to launch their own ventures, ranging development with advanced autocomplete func- velopment, following President Biden’s enhanced
these models become ubiquitous and cost-effec- from conversational agents to AI-first biotech tions and innovative debugging tools, offering both export restrictions on semiconductors. With the
tive, akin to cloud services, their adoption will stan-
firms, signaling a broad diversification and special- premium and free solutions to enhance coding Netherlands aligning with US requests, further
dardize across industries, diminishing their role as
ization within the AI sector. efficiency and creativity. Expect to see more im- demands on allies to adopt similar stances aim to
a competitive differentiator.
provements to these tools and more tools to launch curb China’s AI advancements.
in this space.
Large Reasoning Model Consolidation in 2024 AI Integration in Health Care and Life Sciences Europe Begins Regulating AI
Vertically integrated solutions will garner a higher Consolidation will persist this year, building on Generative AI will lead to breakthroughs in pro- The European Commission will open its European
transactional value. Some companies will win by moves like Microsoft’s 2023 increased investment teins, antibodies, and drugs. Specialized models AI Office, which will oversee the development and
providing “a refined/value-added LLM product” to in OpenAI for Bing, aimed at capturing market share will continue to accelerate discovery in biology and use of safe artificial intelligence (within Europe, at
the end consumer and meeting the customer in from Google search. Similar strategies by major chemistry, sparking more practical applications least) and assist with the implementation of the AI
desired distribution channels, such as LLMs for tech companies are anticipated throughout 2024. and boosting investment. Act. The office will enforce general purpose AI rules,
health care, legal, finance, and architecture. monitor compliance, and attempt to become a hub
for international cooperation on AI governance.
Adoption of Natural Language Interfaces Increased Enterprise Adoption of AI Challenges in US Chip Manufacturing Expansion
The evolution toward natural language interfaces The current macroeconomic environment is driving The US moves to onshore chip fabrication will expe-
will soon diminish the reliance on traditional graph- leaders to view AI as essential for growth, antici- rience growing pains associated with higher labor
ic user interfaces. This shift will enable more intu- pating increased enterprise adoption despite the costs compared to Taiwan. This shift may lead to
itive interactions with computers, using everyday potential for making some job categories obsolete. increased expenses in constructing fabs and pro-
language. This transition may also influence device ducing domestically made chips, surpassing initial
form factors, potentially leading to an increase in estimates outlined in the CHIPS Act.
wearables and the development of AI-specific devic-
es and operating systems centered around LLMs.

LIKELY NEAR TERM DEVELOPMENTS • WEB3
BRIDGING THE WEB DIVIDE Enshrined Account Abstraction Globally Successful Web3 Game Tokenized Asset Network Adoption
Many of the technological limitations Account abstraction is a proposed upgrade The video game industry is years into the Traditional global financial players are working
of blockchain have been resolved to Ethereum that, when implemented, will creation of top titles that have blockchain on private blockchains to facilitate the trans-
or reduced, but adoption is the next provide flexibility in account setup via smart built into the core of the gameplay. The fer of tokenized financial assets, which are
hurdle for blockchain technology and contracts. This will give users easier routes to similarities of these games to titles gamers quicker to transfer and settle, and which help
maintain self-custody of tokens, more akin to are familiar with, combined with new ways to companies avoid the regulatory and security
crypto markets. Many forces are driv- account management in Web2. play, should attract crypto natives and Web2 concerns of public networks.
ing and limiting adoption today, and gamers.
the speed of adoption will depend on
the intersection and final outcomes of Verifying AI Output US Regulators Forced to Decide Crypto Double Down in Africa
these forces. Even in the depth of the
AI models are sowing online discord. Deep- SEC investigation and regulation of crypto In sub-Saharan Africa, crypto is more than a
bear market, the industry is seeing fakes and misinformation are major issues assets is causing pressure to mount. Major “nice-to-have”; it’s a financial necessity. A mix
very promising signs of interest and for political elections and online interaction. decisions around the SEC’s regulatory scope, of financial instability and demographics in
adoption from traditional industry Zero-knowledge cryptography could enable classification of securities, and legality of de- this region have led to the quiet adoption of
verifiable online content and remove distrust centralized finance are coming to a head, which crypto payments, which will lead to a greater
players. However, major roadblocks—
behind content consumed online. could shift the entire crypto market. industry focus in the region.
like regulation—persist, and these
factors are largely out of the hands of
the crypto industry. 11 MACRO SOURCES OF DISRUPTION
Technology Media & Demographics Environment Government Public Health Education Geopolitics Infrastructure Economy Wealth
Telecom Distribution

LIKELY NEAR TERM DEVELOPMENTS • METAVERSE & NEW REALITIES
THE FOUNDATIONS OF THE METAVERSE Completely Hands-Free Experience Metaverse-Tailored Offerings Metaverse World Building for All
As virtual experiences become more
As delivery routes and last-mile deliveries As climate change continues to be a disrup- Increased automation and use of virtual
embedded into daily life, we can expect
continue to increase in speed and complexity, tion, logistics providers will explore how they agents raise the need for workers to to know
growing pains. Regulators must balance automation will let logistics companies cre- can insure against extreme weather events. how to manage new tech-enabled work and
guidelines that ensure integrity without ate an intricate web of delivery offerings that These costs could be passed along to con- tasks. This upskilling could be done through
restricting an nascent industry. Tapid can be unique to each customer. sumers who choose goods from more volatile remote learning and working opportunities.
advances precipitate more seamless, regions.
intuitive user experiences. Hands-free
environments feel within reach as inno-
vations like gesture control tech remove Extended Reality Gets Serious Regulators Target Virtual Trading Consumer Push for Interoperability
friction. Past the hype, enterprise use cas-
es will gain traction, and efficiency gains With workers continuing to grow in scarcity, With manufacturing locations moving closer Global conflicts, combined with consumers
will drive adoption beyond novelty appeal. virtual agents will take over back-of-house to the consumer and e-commerce increasing, and businesses wary of supporting govern-
work in the warehouse. These virtual agents manufacturers need to consider how to create ments with values antithetical to their own
Generative AI will further accelerate pro-
will soon be able to oversee themselves and products in the exact spot as their consumers. will increase demand for verification of supply
liferation by enabling amateur creators to
their cobot workers, reducing the need for chains. Granular data collection and transmis-
construct fully realized 3D worlds without human intervention. sion will enable this shift in transparency.
coding skills. With increased adoption,
interoperability will rise as a priority.
Metaverse technology has perpetually 11 MACRO SOURCES OF DISRUPTION
searched for a wide audience—if it fails to
reach the mainstream consumer, indus-
trial use cases may take over. Medical,
industrial, or civic metaverses may be
the first to find product-market fit. Their
focused nature could lend itself more Technology Media & Demographics Environment Government Public Health Education Geopolitics Infrastructure Economy Wealth
readily to creating utility and value.

LIKELY NEAR TERM DEVELOPMENTS • BIOENGINEERING
RAPID ACCELERATION CRISPR’s Emerging Economic Impact Life Extension Backlash Supply Chain Disruption
The rapid integration of artificial intelli- The size of the global market for CRISPR Life extension breakthroughs promise longer In the next year, new materials poised to im-
gence into bioengineering is catalyzing technologies and their associated products is lives for some, yet they will strain social ser- prove shipping’s environmental footprint may
unprecedented innovation. The near projected to exceed $4 billion by mid-decade. vices, pensions, and other support systems disrupt traditional supply and cold chain op-
future will see significant changes to In the US alone, CRISPR could contribute $19 for the elderly, challenging our preparedness erations dependent on outdated tech, posing
traditional industries such as meat, dairy, billion to GDP by 2032. for an aging population. significant threats to established companies.
textiles, and pharmaceuticals, while
advancements should pave the way for
sustainable solutions in carbon capture,
GMO Misinformation Regulatory Pressures Stark Health Divide
plastics recycling, and biodiversity en-
hancement. Near-term breakthroughs in A new GMO backlash looms as public mis- Federal Trade Commission actions spark Biotech will revolutionize health care with
healthcare will lead to cataclysmic, long- information persists, with many unaware fears of stifled innovation due to limits on novel drug therapies, yet their inaccessibility
that the latest GMOs aim to boost produce scaling therapies via acquisitions, while the to developing economies risks creating a
term disruption. Leaders should deepen
and grains with enhanced nutrients, not just US Inflation Reduction Act ushers in a harsh- stark health divide, exacerbating global
their understanding of bioengineering’s modify them for convenience or yield. er pricing climate, impacting the biopharma health inequalities.
vast potential and associated risks, en- industry’s future reimbursement strategies
abling them to spearhead innovation in for innovations.
products and services, streamline pro-
cesses, improve materials, and achieve 11 MACRO SOURCES OF DISRUPTION
cost efficiencies. This convergence also
opens up new avenues for collaboration,
allowing companies to explore untapped
markets and forge strategic partnerships
that can drive forward their competitive Technology Media & Demographics Environment Government Public Health Education Geopolitics Infrastructure Economy Wealth
edge.

LIKELY NEAR TERM DEVELOPMENTS • ENERGY & CLIMATE
CHANGE IS THE NEW NORMAL Price Beats Ethics Rethinking Supply Chains From Early Bird to Night Owl
Two opposing forces will make the As inflation soars and the fear of a recession Governments are expanding their require- Excessive heat impacts daily lives around the
corporate landscape highly volatile festers, consumers might put affordability ments for reliable and consistent reporting of globe, forcing people to stay indoors during
and unpredictable. On the one hand, above climate considerations, at least when it direct and indirect emissions (scope 1, 2, and the day and only leave their houses in the eve-
active regulatory bodies, scaling of comes to their wallets. This will put additional 3), putting pressure on corporations to curate ning. As these heat phases expand, industries
strain on business owners, as they determine their vendor networks and on the vendors to dependent on people’s physical presence will
renewable energy production, and how to adjust for climate demands. ensure their operations are still profitable have to rethink operations as habits and tim-
increased investment in innovation under increased standards. ing of activities shift.
that aims to solve the remaining
bottlenecks will require and empower Shifts in Mobility Accountability Changes Climate Upskilling
corporations to integrate sustain-
More and more people, at least in Europe, are The resolution of a number of upcoming With climate regulation expanding and evolv-
ability in ways not imaginable just committing to not use air travel. The resulting court cases will begin to determine govern- ing, and climate technology innovation accel-
a few years ago. On the other hand, smaller spheres of mobility could lead to an ment and corporate responsibility for climate erating (thanks to AI) and scaling, companies
economic headwinds in the form of increasing need for companies to have local change. If verdicts fall on the side of holding need to make sure they have the necessary
hubs, especially as the terms of remote work institutions responsible, we could see funda- know-how in-house to understand and moni-
heavy inflation and a looming reces-
are still being negotiated. mental changes in how climate is addressed. tor relevant developments.
sion might lead consumers to priori-
tize affordability over sustainability,
and escalating geopolitical tensions 11 MACRO SOURCES OF DISRUPTION
could strain the supply chain, in-
crease the price of raw materials, and
hinder collaboration in research—
slowing down innovation.

LIKELY NEAR TERM DEVELOPMENTS • MOBILITY, ROBOTICS & DRONES
MORE CERTAINTY IN COMPLEX SYSTEMS Continued Connectedness Supply Chain Disruptions Persist Viability of Drone Traffic Management
In the immediate future, a wave of Automobiles are only becoming more con- Even as the supply of vehicles and chips for The escalating use of drones and eVTOLs has
transformative development is poised nected. This will impact advanced driver robotics stabilizes, manufacturers and sellers necessitated advanced traffic management
to reshape our world across various assistance systems as well as infotainment should still brace for continued supply chain solutions. As various regions have put mea-
domains. From the continued integra- within the cabin. Automobiles will be less disruptions. Additionally, chip nationalism sures in place, the viability of ubiquitous drone
isolating as drivers and passengers seam- and other geopolitical factors will also threat- use will be determined in the short term.
tion of connectivity in automobiles— lessly expand how they connect to their lives en supplies of goods.
fueling advanced driver assistance outside the car.
systems and enriched in-car expe-
riences—to the pressing challenges Challenges to the Grid New Modalities for Robotics Clarity on Robotaxis
facing our electrical grids as we pivot
As we idealistically transition to an all-elec- Researchers have developed many innovative Robotaxis have been the source of much con-
toward an all-electric future and the tric future, many have speculated our elec- modalities for robotics and drones, seeking troversy, as different companies have tested
changing regulatory landscapes im- trical grids will not be able to handle this inspiration from various sources. This innova- their systems with varying success. The near
pacting drones and autonomous sys- adjustment. Others are more optimistic. In tion will continue, with unexpected inspiration future will shed light on long-term feasibility,
time, we will have more certainty. from nature or animals, and some systems especially as regulations shift to account for
tems, these developments underscore
will incorporate several different modalities in recent events and developments.
the dynamic nature of technological their designs.
progress. They collectively signify an
era of both challenge and opportunity, 11 MACRO SOURCES OF DISRUPTION
where adaptability and forward-think-
ing will be key to navigating the dis-
ruptive forces of technology.

LIKELY NEAR TERM DEVELOPMENTS • COMPUTING
AI, ARCHITECTURE & ALLEGIANCE Research and Debates on OI Chip Freedom Surge in Q-Day Preppers
Geopolitical tensions are accelerating
Expect a surge in organoid intelligence Expect a rise in RISC-V adopters as it trans- Businesses will prepare more seriously for
some key computing developments.
research. Organoids may be the key to AI’s forms the chip industry. Offering freedom “Q-Day”—when quantum computers can
Expect semiconductor talent shortages
efficient boost, but the convergence of AI and from costly licenses, RISC-V enables custom, break internet encryption protocols. As China
as nations adjust how they manage skills
OI may stir ethical debates. application-driven hardware, making chip and the US both achieve breakthroughs to-
for self-reliance. Also expect the rush design more accessible, thereby lowering the ward quantum advantage, expect a surge in
to prepare for “Q-Day” to become more entry barrier. investments in this domain.
urgent as countries race toward quantum
advantage. We will see more companies
boast quantum-resistant cryptography Semiconductor Skills Shortage The New BYOD Policy: Gaming Devices AI-Driven Form Factors
as a value proposition. And as countries
become more wary of supply chain dis- Anticipate a talent crunch in the semicon- AI requirements will spur non-gamers toward Expect an emergence of new form factors
ruptions, more inputs will be brought in- ductor sector as countries aim to internalize powerful gaming devices, prompting demand driven by AI, that diverge from the conventional
house. As nations do this, RISC-V adoption production. This skill gap will necessitate for enterprise software integration. This laptop, keyboard, and mouse setup, as AI facil-
may increase. refocusing, driving universities and commu- signals a new wave of bring-your-own-de- itates more intuitive communication methods.
nities to prioritize these skills. vice hardware—powerful yet portable. Expect We might also see a surge in specialized de-
Technological developments in AI are also increased enterprise application integration vices designed for specific AI applications, like
driving near term developments. To power with such devices. dedicated translation gadgets or AI-enhanced
AI, companies are rethinking computing cameras.
architectures using inspiration from the
human brain and existing gaming devices. 11 MACRO SOURCES OF DISRUPTION
AI will soon flip the script on human-com-
puter interaction; rather than users
learning to operate computers, AI allows
computers to learn to interact on human
terms. With AI, the computer will adapt to
the person—not the other way around. Telecom Distribution

LIKELY NEAR TERM DEVELOPMENTS • BUILT ENVIRONMENT
CLIENTS HAVE NEW REQUIREMENTS Deconstruction Plans Become Required Immersive Design Leads to Spatial Built Environment Develops Data Markets
EXPECTATIONS Relevancy
Many areas already have deconstruction With a vast pool of human-centric data, the
Integrated data and the output from As the world becomes more immersed
requirements, aiming to reduce waste built environment is sitting on untapped
models that use that data are becom- heading to a landfill. These types of in technology, screens and devices are revenue streams of information that could
ing more of a requirement, allowing requirements will likely only continue to continuing to shrink. This means that benefit many business sectors. Past client
for greater manipulation and under- increase, which will change permit and spaces will need to accommodate for more contracts may prevent this from occurring, but
standing in the preconstruction and construction planning. immersive experiences in their design. newly developed contracts would allow firms to
documentation phases. Clients will sell this data.
continue to want proof that a project
will perform financially, and to interact Cities Organize Themselves Jurisdictions and Developers Require Smart Green Infrastructure Combats
Second-Life Designs Eco-Anxiety
and engage with that data on a more Urban planning and development requires
routine basis. More regions and mu- long-term strategy and planning, which can Just as deconstruction will likely be regulated, The urgency of climate change could lead
nicipalities will also want plans that be complicated by sudden societal shifts and so will adaptive reuse projects that address to an increase in eco-friendly infrastructure
needs. AI and digital twins will be able to help housing shortages. New mixed-use zoning or that allows for power sharing and carbon-free
extend beyond the structure itself,
accommodate for these shifts, increasing urban zoning developments will likely enable transportation. These updates could bring
including options for what to do with this change. resilience to areas where people worry about
the chances of automated planning directing
the materials once the life cycle of the where developments should take place next. being displaced due to climate change.
project is complete, as well as plans
for how to convert entire blocks or just
11 MACRO SOURCES OF DISRUPTION
rooftops into functional spaces. The
upfront planning process will become
even more important as technology
will more clearly show what should be
prioritized, such as a road to be fixed
or a new sewer system to be installed. Telecom Distribution

LIKELY NEAR TERM DEVELOPMENTS • NEWS & INFORMATION
THE PACE OF CHANGE ACCELERATES Evolution in copyright law New modes of search and discovery Fragmented information access
Journalists are accustomed to the Generative AI tools have outstripped set- Generations Z and Alpha have different con- Not everyone can afford a news subscription.
breakneck pace of change: Adjusting tled law. Expect to see litigation challenging sumption patterns than older generations. As paywalls at premier publishers get tighter,
to rapid developments has been the whether crawling content to train a large These differences are especially stark when essential reporting may not reach the com-
watchword of media organizations for language model constitutes fair use. The im- looking at how younger users find news. Pub- munities that need to see it. This is of par-
pacts of that legal wrangling could be com- lishers need to tailor their strategies to reach ticular concern for the 2024 US presidential
more than a decade. The year ahead pounded by new laws or regulations. those potential consumers. election.
will test whether news leaders have
learned to search for disruption or
whether they’ve gotten complacent. Subscription fatigue New European regulations Easier content creation
Barriers to creating compelling con-
The conversion to a subscription economy is The EU’s Digital Services Act, in effect since Expect to see a new suite of productivity tools
tent will fall. The operating assump- happening in news but also in retail, gaming, August, introduced substantial changes to aimed at transforming the creative process.
tions that let many digital publishers automobiles, and more. All those programs the regulatory framework for tech platforms. Those tools will have a cultural—and eco-
thrive on reach will crumble. There are competing for a finite share of consumer Its obligations may shift how platforms op- nomic—impact as they lower the barriers to
spending, so publishers need to ensure they erate, just as a Canadian law caused Meta to publishing text, photos, and videos. Legacy
will be a race to derive value from
are essential to remain competitive. drop news from its platform last year. creators will struggle to adapt.
existing content, either by licensing it
to tech companies or building pub-
lisher-owned LLMs. New categories of 11 MACRO SOURCES OF DISRUPTION
devices will demand new publishing
formats. Successful news organi-
zations will triage these competing
threats to find opportunity; too many
publishers will do nothing and find Technology Media & Demographics Environment Government Public Health Education Geopolitics Infrastructure Economy Wealth
their relevance diminished.

LIKELY NEAR TERM DEVELOPMENTS • HEALTH CARE & MEDICINE
CHALLENGES FROM ALL SIDES Rising Consumer Expectations New Stakeholder Ecosystems Decreased Access, Quality in Care
The health care system is battling Consumers have increased access to infor- When health care moves to the sphere of the Health care systems are struggling to provide
with increased needs for services, mation about their health, which will affect consumer, through smart devices or medi- sufficient care, especially in rural regions. Tele-
a rise in costs, disruption of sup- their expectations of routine examinations. cal services administered in the home, new medicine offers potential support, but these
ply chains because of geopolitical Professional insights must exceed and service needs that mimic those typically pro- areas often lack the required digital infrastruc-
tensions, and an uptick in diseases incorporate the information available to the vided in a hospital arise. These can be digital ture and medical personnel allowed to reach
consumer directly, or services will be viewed (data analysis) or physical (food delivery, care, them.
based on worsening climate condi- as superfluous. etc.).
tions. Technology is coming to the
rescue but can only accomplish so Novel Health Threats Fight for Patient Data
Fighting Misinformation
much: A fractured data landscape,
lack of infrastructure, and a lack of Social platforms have rolled back their As the effects of climate change worsen, Sensors from consumer-facing smart devices
COVID-19 content moderation policies and disease patterns will change globally: Respi- are becoming more precise and increasing the
data ownership and sharing regula- reduced staff in monitoring departments ratory illnesses will increase in areas exposed type of biological information they can collect.
tion make timely solutions unrealis- in recent rounds of layoffs. The increased to smoke from wildfires, or vector-borne Health care providers need to ensure that they
tic. On the other hand, increasingly amounts of AI-generated content will con- diseases will emerge in regions with rising can access that data to provide adequate ser-
sophisticated patients, thanks to tinue to challenge sharing accurate health temperatures. vices to their patients.
powerful sensors on smart devices, communication.
are actively taking charge of their
own health. As higher expectations
for quality care rise by such patients,
medical professionals need to deliver
an all-encompassing, holistic ap-
proach to their services.

LIKELY NEAR TERM DEVELOPMENTS • FINANCIAL SERVICES & INSURANCE
ACTION IS THE VERB FOR 2024 Inflation (Should) Remain Steady US Election Outcomes US Stablecoin Regulation
Financial institutions and insurance Current views suggest inflation will remain In addition to the presidential election, The Clarity for Payment Stablecoins Act of
providers have spent years experi- steady this year after cooling in late 2023. several senate seats are up for grabs in 2023 was passed by the House Financial
menting, pondering, and investigat- While Fed rate cuts will help maintain sta- 2024 that could determine key outcomes Services Committee in 2023 in July, leaving
ing new and influential technologies. bility, rising housing and rental costs at the in banking regulation over the next several many hopeful that the official legislation
beginning of 2024 have put upward pressure years, particularly in Ohio, Montana, and will pass sometime in 2024. The bill would
To a great extent, the volatile market on inflation, making it a space to watch. California. regulate stablecoins like other financial
of the last several years created the institutions.
optimal environment for thinking
rather than doing. But 2024 will be AI Standards Development CBDC Launches Technology Investment
different: New AI standards, scaled
Top tech firms are participating in a joint Several countries, including India, Brazil, and A recent survey showed that 92% of banks
CBDCs, and forthcoming stablecoin effort led by the US Department of Commerce Singapore, have planned to launch CBDCs plan to increase technology spending in 2024.
regulations mark this year as a year to create standards around the safe use of in 2024. While the scale and maturity of the This investment will likely focus on data and
of action. If financial institutions and AI. While not purely FI-focused, the outcomes efforts vary, 2024 should serve as a proving AI, leading to strategic hires in specific areas
will likely inform how banks and insurance ground for whether CBDCs work in the wild. of expertise. Hopefully, these investments will
insurance providers leverage this
companies use the tech. be practical and not experimental.
opportunity to make real progress on
their technological investment, 2024
could be an inflection point for the 11 MACRO SOURCES OF DISRUPTION
industry.

LIKELY NEAR TERM DEVELOPMENTS • SPORTS
SPORTS: COMPLEX AND DYNAMIC More Immersive Experiences Broadcasting Rights Lead to Turmoil Olympics Serve as a Protest Platform
The sports industry is poised for a Sports teams already use mobile devices to As live sports broadcasting contracts become The Olympics have always served as a geopo-
major transformation in 2024, with a provide augmented experiences and activa- more expensive, streaming platforms and litical platform, but the 2024 Games could be
tions for in-person events, and now this capa- tech companies will make more competitive exploited in unprecedented ways. Considering
host of exciting challenges and inno-
bility will occur in homes. Spatial computing bids to expand their user base. However, over- the Israel-Hamas war and Jewish populations in
vations on the horizon that will have allows for more 3Dt renderings of a game as if paying for negotiating rights could lead to France, along with Ukrainian’s aversion for Rus-
a profound impact on the way fans you were there. long-term financial impacts, putting stream- sia, the Olympics will likely serve as a venue of
ing platforms in significant financial trouble. protest unlike what we’ve witnessed in the past.
engage with sports, creating bespoke
and immersive experiences like never
Increased Web3 Adoption Influence Expands from the Middle East Automated Game Management Expands
before. However, alongside these tech-
nological advancements lie a range This year will reveal the true usefulness of Golf has felt the impact of Saudi Arabia’s sov- Technologies for managing games and match-
Web3 technologies such as using blockchain ereign wealth fund through the merger of the es, such as electronic line calling in tennis,
of business and political obstacles for creating consolidated golden records, digi- PGA Tour and LIV. Likewise, Qatar has leveraged automatic balls and strikes systems in base-
that must be overcome, putting the tal fan passports, and dynamic ticketing, and its sovereign wealth fund to impact soccer ball, and semiautomated offside technology
efficiency of decision-making mecha- highlight how these novel approaches will im- clubs FC Barcelona and Paris Saint-Germain. for soccer, are creating fairness and minimiz-
pact the fan experience. As teams and leagues These nations will expand their control with in- ing human error. More leagues will be pres-
nisms to the test.
work out the issues and take advantage of creased economic investment in sports includ- sured to adopt similar technologies, especially
Web3, more organizations are likely to adopt it. ing soccer, boxing, cricket, and even basketball. as the stakes increase from sports betting.

LIKELY NEAR TERM DEVELOPMENTS • SPACE
UNLOCKING POTENTIAL IN SPACE Space Manufacturing Takes Off Asteroid Mining Viability ISRU on the Moon
When it comes to space explora- With significant interest from government or- Asteroid mining in and of itself will not be a As a demonstration of oxygen production on
tion, there are never any guarantees. ganizations such as NASA, combined with the near term development. However, we should Mars by NASA’s MOXIE has shown, in-situ
Missions are often delayed, and the engineering know-how of startups like Red- know more about its viability as startups like resource utilization (ISRU) is crucial for space
complex nature of space travel of- wire and Varda, the industry will soon know AstroForge have reestablished their interest exploration. In due time, a demonstration of
the viability of manufacturing in space and in the activity and have insightful missions oxygen or water production will take place on
ten results in the failed execution of the true benefits of working in microgravity. planned. the moon.
even properly laid plans. A wave of
transformative developments will
make our space-based futures look Humans on the Moon New Discoveries by the JWST Affordable re-entry
brighter, however. Based on near term
NASA’s Artemis program has its sights on Since its successful deployment in space, the Expect a rise in companies focused on
developments and milestones, we will sending humans back to the moon and plans James Webb Space Telescope has continued cost-effective return vehicles and methods
have more certainty on the viability of to do so by 2025. This along with the recent to uncover new revelations and inspiration. to retrieve goods manufactured in space. If
certain technologies such as asteroid flurry of lunar activity, including India’s The JWST will continue to discover more viable, this point-to-point space delivery and
unmanned Chandrayaan-3 landing, expect about space, potentially giving us new clues off-Earth industry promises immense expan-
mining, in-situ resource utilization,
humans to be there again soon. about our origins. sion for commercial interests.
and space-based manufacturing. We
will achieve new breakthroughs, plac-
ing humans in new environments. Ad- 11 MACRO SOURCES OF DISRUPTION
ditionally, we will unlock new myster-
ies and potentially learn more about
our origins.

LIKELY NEAR TERM DEVELOPMENTS • HOSPITALITY & RESTAURANTS
POTENTIAL DISRUPTIONS CONTINUE TO LOOM Labor Tensions AI Avatars Delivery Everywhere

While many customers need stability As technology adoption increases, service Brand representatives can curate their Convenience will continue to win out. Delivery
to know if they should move forward unions could begin to feel pressure to block interactions based on a consumer’s has returned to pre-pandemic levels, but now
with taking a trip, stability is not developments they feel would replace their preferences and response to targeted media. consumers expect to be able to get items
assured, which is normal. However, members. Examples include the outcome of Booking interactions will be more friendly as not just at home but wherever they are at
the recent SAG-AFTRA strike. a result, and dining experiences feel more any given time. This will require new tracking
new tensions are arising that could personal. These nuanced relationships will methods and omnichannel delivery methods.
further disrupt the market and in- transcend short-term brand mascots.
dustry. Much of these disruptions are
due to customers demanding more Power Stability Dark Dining Technology Upskilling
personalization, which creates more
With climate change continuing to disrupt As space becomes a premium, store Current hospitality education institutions
work for businesses. That’s especially energy infrastructure, hotels and restau- footprints will continue to shrink, creating may need to add courses on technology and
difficult when these new technolo- rants will need to prioritize improvements to fewer positions for human workers and more how to use it within the industry. QSRs will
gies are increasingly vital to remain remain stable for customers. This will be a for robots. This can increase market presence, face challenges if they depend on employees
challenge as the construction industry is also but will require greater upfront investments lacking technological skills, necessitating
competitive, but the labor force lacks
dealing with a labor shortage. and market research. upskilling cycles to train them to use new in-
the skills needed to implement them. store technology.
These shifts to the market also offer
opportunities to increase services
and provide new touch points.

LIKELY NEAR TERM DEVELOPMENTS • SUPPLY CHAIN & LOGISTICS
ON-DEMAND DRIVES INSTANTANEOUS Personalized Delivery Gets Automated Climate Insurance for Protection Combating a Skills Drought
PROCESSES
As delivery routes and last-mile deliveries As climate change continues to be a disrup- Increased automation and use of virtual
Change—whether from consumer de-
continue to increase in speed and complexity, tion, logistics providers will explore how they agents raise the need for workers to to know
mands, new technologies, or global automation will let logistics companies cre- can insure against extreme weather events. how to manage new tech-enabled work and
shifts—is the one a constant in the supply ate an intricate web of delivery offerings that These costs could be passed along to con- tasks. This upskilling could be done through
chain and logistics industries. It’s what can be unique to each customer. sumers who choose goods from more volatile remote learning and working opportunities.
leads to new offerings and services, such regions.
as the industries’ need to respond to the
increasing expectations for on-demand
and instantaneous deliveries, commu- Virtual Agents Take Over Instant Manufacturing Meets Demands Verification Based on Values
nication, production, and reports. Inno- With workers continuing to grow in scarcity, With manufacturing locations moving closer Global conflicts, combined with consumers
vations in tracking and tracing goods, virtual agents will take over back-of-house to the consumer and e-commerce increasing, and businesses wary of supporting govern-
automation, and expedited and near- work in the warehouse. These virtual agents manufacturers need to consider how to create ments with values antithetical to their own
shored manufacturing are happening, will soon be able to oversee themselves and products in the exact spot as their consum- will increase demand for verification of supply
their cobot workers, reducing the need for ers. chains. Granular data collection and transmis-
but attention is still needed to address
human intervention. sion will enable this shift in transparency.
the shortages in capital and talent. Proper
investment to meet the gaps through
technology will be expensive, and could 11 MACRO SOURCES OF DISRUPTION
create a burden many smaller companies
cannot bear unless they create a clear
strategic roadmap. With talent droughts
occuring in all three they will have to keep
competing for talent and seek out work- Technology Media & Demographics Environment Government Public Health Education Geopolitics Infrastructure Economy Wealth
ers willing to be upskilled. Telecom Distribution

LIKELY NEAR TERM DEVELOPMENTS • ENTERTAINMENT
TIGHTENING THE BELT Lower Production Budgets Sustainability Practices Overpresent Celebrities
After the golden age of content, all As studios work toward making their stream- Gone are the days when entertainment Digital celebrities, both those with human
signs are now pointing toward effi- ing services profitable, new lean processes companies just have to take their direct counterparts and those without, allow anytime
ciency measures. Fears of a recession, will walk the line between providing enough emissions into account. They’ll also have to access for fans but run the risk of eradicating
inflation, a widening wealth gap, and content variety to avoid subscription fall-off consider reducing fan and production travel the defining feature of celebrity: scarcity.
and actually making money. emissions, recycling, and using sustainable
geopolitical instability have many materials when planning and executing con-
people holding on to their financial re- tent.
sources. And that’s especially true in
the entertainment industry, as prob- Engaging Broader Demographics Live-ish Experiences Copyright Chaos
lems with the streaming business
The aging population in Europe, Asia, and to As people have less disposable income, they Microsoft launched its Copilot Copyright
model, increased production costs a lesser degree the US, requires strategizing will seek alternative entertainment options. Commitment, assuming users’ legal copyright
based on the new union contracts, about what topics will make people over age Local pubs broadcasting a game or smaller, risks when using the company’s AI Copilot.
and fractured audiences create an en- 60 tune in. On the other end of the spectrum, local live venues might be more attractive However, as long as there is no clear regula-
Gen Z requires special enticement to watch experiences than stadium concerts. tion, the use of many AI tools will continue to
vironment of extreme frugality. Tech-
long instead of short-form content. carry substantial legal risk.
nology looks like a knight in shining
armor, promising to increase produc-
tion speeds and reduce costs without 11 MACRO SOURCES OF DISRUPTION
decreasing quality—if it is incorpo-
rated ethically and sustainably. After
the unions’ negotiated contractual
guardrails, those goals may be easier
to achieve. Technology Media & Demographics Environment Government Public Health Education Geopolitics Infrastructure Economy Wealth

2024
UNCERTAINTIES
Uncertainties represent what we cannot know—and identifying
them can reduce the risk of blind spots down the road. In this year’s
report, we highlight five top uncertainties that will shape 2024.

UNCERTAINTIES
01 02 03 04 05
How quickly will What global How will countries How will humans In the context
AI revolutionize challenges will and businesses prioritize their of increasing
business, and in bioengineering be commit to work environments protectionism
what ways? able to address? decarbonization? in the future, and geopolitical
and what will tensions, what
these preferred is the future of
workplaces look the global chip
like? manufacturing
industry?
JUMP TO UNCERTANTITY 1 JUMP TO UNCERTANTITY 2 JUMP TO UNCERTANTITY 3 JUMP TO UNCERTANTITY 4 JUMP TO UNCERTANTITY 5

01
How quickly will AI revolutionize
business, and in what ways?

UNCERTAINTIES
How quickly will AI revolutionize business,

and in what ways?
Stratification Scales
Stratification by Industry AI Scales Up for Consumers
by Function or Task
GET THE DETAILS GET THE DETAILS GET THE DETAILS
A Revolutionary
Efficiency Optimization Bolstered Productivity Cautious Scaling in Agile Scaling in Less- AI Serves as a
Consumer-Facing
in the Back Office and Performance Complex Industries Regulated Industries Creative Playground
Assistant

2024 1. HOW QUICKLY WILL AI REVOLUTIONIZE BUSINESS, AND IN WHAT WAYS? EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
UNCERTAINTIES
Stratification Scales by Function or Task

AI scales along two distinct trajectories: by function or by task. Functional scaling involves
embedding AI into key business operations, like accounting or IT, to enhance productivity.
Conversely, task-based scaling increases efficiency for routine activities like email, leading to
workforce streamlining. Both offer unique advantages for leaders, who must choose between
broad operational transformation or targeted task refinement.
SCENARIO 1 SCENARIO 2
Efficiency Optimization in the Back Office Bolstered Productivity and Performance

AI emerges as a linchpin, enhancing efficiency for back-office operations like Integrating AI into the business ecosystem results in meaningful workforce
calendaring and leading to a cascade of broader organizational and cultural reduction, as the tech can tackle work that previously required multiple humans.
shifts. But there are human capital implications: As AI takes root, the workforce
Management adapts to overseeing hybrid teams of humans and AI, fostering
gradually contracts.
collaboration and redefining performance metrics. Money previously allocated
With efficiency gains, companies reconsider budgets, diverting funds from labor for salaries and benefits is redirected toward technology investment, research,
to tech. This shift fosters a culture of innovation, as employees are reassigned to and development, potentially driving further innovation. Ultimately, AI leads
more strategic, creative, or complex tasks that AI can’t easily replicate. But it also to more informed decision-making, risk assessment, and predictive analytics,
will require companies to reevaluate talent strategies, prioritize adaptability and and businesses tailor their AI solutions to specific departmental needs to gain
technical proficiency, and expand HR departments to include upskilling programs competitive advantages.
and change management.
NEXT SCENARIO | THREATS & OPPORTUNITITES | STRATEGIC QUESTIONS | RETURN TO UNCERTAINTIES

UNCERTAINTIES
Stratification by Industry
As AI matures, its scalability pivots around industry-specific applications. The speed with
which AI scales across certain industries is a function of technological receptivity and reflects
the regulatory landscapes that govern them. Business leaders must carefully measure
tradeoffs between these two challenges, calibrating their AI integration strategies to align
with industry characteristics and regulatory confines.
Cautious Scaling in Complex Industries Agile Scaling in Less-Regulated Industries

Sectors like financial services and health care stand to gain improved productivity Industries less encumbered by compliance hurdles—such as consumer
and efficiencies as AI leaders by processing vast data streams and achieving packaged goods and retail—are quick to capitalize on AI’s potential. It
decision-making acumen beyond human speed. However, lagging regulatory becomes a dynamic catalyst for innovation, enabling rapid ideation and
updates temper this progress. deployment of new products and services.
Slower to replace the nuanced judgment of human experts with AI systems, AI’s ability to analyze vast amounts of data in real-time is leveraged to
businesses take a more deliberate scaling strategy. They invest in AI R&D to personalize customer experiences, from tailored product recommendations
create more sophisticated models built on equitable data training. Their cautious to enhanced service interactions. It also creates supply chain resilience by
approach extends to data privacy and security, as they implement strong predicting demand, optimizing inventory, and identifying potential disruptions.
measures to safeguard sensitive information.

UNCERTAINTIES
AI Scales Up for Consumers

Two primary use cases of AI alter everyday life. The first is through creative and experimental applications
that introduce a sense of play and innovation to regular activities. They are reshaping entertainment, social
media, and online engagement by providing novel, personalized experiences. The second sees AI as a
practical assistant, seamlessly integrating into daily routines to manage tasks, offer recommendations,
and streamline decisions. This form of AI is becoming a dependable extension of personal efficiency. These
manifestations of AI highlight its versatility and growing significance in shaping consumer behavior.
AI Serves as a Creative Playground A Revolutionary Consumer-Facing Assistant

For consumers, AI is more about novelty and entertainment than utility. Students The AI assistant transcends its fledgling origins to become an essential element
integrate generative AI into their projects, pushing the boundaries of creativity and of daily life. It simplifies complex tasks and executes functions with a level of
academic exploration. Social media enthusiasts use it to embellish their online access and autonomy that mirrors human assistance. Consumers find tangible
personas and captivate their followers. ease in their routines as AI assistants manage calendars, make informed
purchases, and even anticipate needs before they arise.
Consumers now expect more interactive and personalized digital experiences
across all platforms, influencing a shift in how products and services are The downside: The role of AI in decision-making processes raises ethical
designed and marketed. At the same time, the digital divide is more pronounced questions, especially if these systems begin to influence areas like personal
as a broader segment of the population becomes adept at navigating and relationships, employment opportunities, and even legal decisions.
manipulating digital environments and tools.
THREATS & OPPORTUNITITES | STRATEGIC QUESTIONS | RETURN TO UNCERTAINTIES

OPPORTUNITIES & THREATS
THREATS OPPORTUNITIES
1 Workforce disruption 1 Increased productivity and efficiency

As AI takes on more responsibilities, companies must AI implementation in back-office and core business
manage job losses and reskill employees to avoid functions can result in exponential productivity gains,
negative backlash. superior efficiency, and cost reductions.
2 Regulatory non-compliance 2 Enhanced data-driven decision-making

Strict governance in regulated sectors can curb AI AI will provide business leaders with previously
innovation/adoption if transparency, accountability, inaccessible insights, predictive analytics, and risk
and ethical standards are not upheld. assessments to inform strategy and planning.
3 Data privacy issues 3 Competitive differentiation

As AI leverages increasing amounts of consumer Customized enterprise AI solutions present opportunities
data, rising public concern around data privacy may to develop proprietary platforms, hyper-specialized
warrant increased regulation and standards around tools, and new business models that distinguish an
data use. organization.
STRATEGIC QUESTIONS | RETURN TO UNCERTAINTIES

STRATEGIC QUESTIONS
1 2 3 4 5
Are you mainly focused Do you have the data How might your offerings How might emerging How will third-party
on leveraging AI in governance foundations need to shift as consumer AI systems create a AI assistants change
your organization for and AI accountability and business buyer compounding effect for consumer expectations
functional efficiency, measures to comply with expectations evolve? your business? Is there of your products and
task-based productivity existing and emerging a part of your business services?
gains, or both? What are regulations? that could be vastly
you doing to build those improved or optimized if a
strategies? component or compound
could be altered slightly?

02
What global challenges will
bioengineering be able to address?

UNCERTAINTIES
What global challenges will bioengineering

be able to address?
Better Living Infrastructure Resilience Securing Agricultural Infrastructure
The Never Retiring Widening Self-Sustaining Community-Focused

Subscribe or Die Highways World War Food
Workforce Societal Gap Food
(The End to Infrastructure Bills?)

2024 2. WHAT GLOBAL CHALLENGES WILL BIOENGINEERING BE ABLE TO ADDRESS? EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
UNCERTAINTIES
Better Living
Bioengineering initiatives and research present a change in our approach to health care and even aging.
Researchers use generative biology to create new therapeutic compounds and test the viability of gene
editing. That work results in better drugs, personalized treatments, engineered tissues, and alternatives to
one-size-fits-some medicine. Experiments are underway to alter genetics to cure ailments and diseases, with
success already being achieved in hearing loss reversal and sickle cell treatment. Scientists leverage animal
alternatives as they work to enhance limb, organ, and joint regenerative capabilities.
Subscribe or Die The Never Retiring Workforce
Health care shifts from reactively treating sickness and diseases to proactively Economic conditions have not drastically improved for Millennials and Gen Z, who
addressing potential health issues before they emerge. With the goal of making cannot afford to retire. Thanks to preventative medicine, genetic surgeries, and
up for any future lost “reactive” revenues, the largest health care systems use new therapies, the life expectancy of Americans spiked from 77 to 115 years. Many
M&A to join the bioengineering landscape as facility providers and treatment older individuals feel physically and mentally capable of working indefinitely,
hubs. People subscribe to bio-based services, which they must use to continue while younger generations face a bottleneck in career advancement.
getting access to health-promoting and anti-aging solutions. Big Bio creates the
The implications are profound, and not just in the US. HR professionals and labor
ultimate subscription package: Continue paying, or face an untimely alternative.
economists prompt a reevaluation of career trajectories, retirement planning, and
intergenerational equity, hoping to stave off a collapse.

UNCERTAINTIES
Infrastructure Resilience
Our infrastructure is no longer crumbling and fragile. By creating new compounds and modifying
existing ones, bioengineering significantly enhances construction materials’ strength, durability,
and flexibility while reducing reliance on harmful chemicals and petroleum-based compounds.
Compounds that self-heal extend the lifespan of infrastructure by autonomously repairing damage.
New materials, designed with generative biology, result in “living” buildings engineered with
sustainable, organic materials.
Widening Societal Gap Self-Sustaining Highways (The End to Infrastructure Bills?)

As bioengineering technologies mature and scale, the demand for traditional Bioengineering introduces advanced materials for highways and bridges that
construction and maintenance services wanes. Construction firms that don’t incorporate microorganisms, which produce substances to naturally repair
adapt— struggle, and those specializing in bioengineered solutions—thrive. damages, thereby enhancing durability and slashing maintenance expenses.
These innovations adapt to fluctuating environmental conditions, offering better
While new homes are increasingly constructed with these innovative materials,
resistance against extreme weather patterns and contributing to infrastructure
integrating them into existing homes proves financially prohibitive for many
longevity. Some highway infrastructures mend themselves and reduce CO2 levels,
homeowners. A two-tier infrastructure landscape emerges, where newer
while bridges utilize embedded sensors for ongoing health monitoring, ensuring
developments boast remarkable resilience and sustainability features, and older
safety and operational efficiency.
constructions lag.

UNCERTAINTIES
Securing Agricultural Infrastructure

Bioengineering addresses the global food security challenge by revolutionizing how and where we
grow our food. Improved crop yields enable food cultivation in diverse and previously inhospitable
locations. Bioengineering also offers solutions to the most pressing agricultural challenges, such as
developing famine and disease-resistant crops, engineering drought-tolerant plants that thrive on
less water, and reducing reliance on chemical fertilizers and pesticides by creating all-natural pest
resistances. Crops now withstand shifting weather patterns, while soil health is improved.
World War Food Community-Focused Food

Wealthier nations, foreseeing the vulnerabilities of relying on traditional Genetic modification and environmental adaptation have revolutionized
agriculture, heavily invested in synthetic biology and food synthesis technologies to agriculture. Crops flourish in deserts and on urban rooftops, making food
produce engineered foods customized for nutritional content. production sustainable and accessible. The urban heat island effect is reduced,
and fresh produce and cultured proteins are available at local shops. Suburban and
This shift has created a new divide in the global economy, with disparities in
rural communities have embraced cooperative farms growing bioengineered crops
food production capabilities. Agrarian countries, dependent on their exports of
resistant to various adversities, enhancing local biodiversity and fostering shared
traditional crops, face widespread unemployment and social unrest. They retaliate
responsibilities and benefits. Commercial farming has shifted toward sustainability,
through cyber sabotage and proxy conflicts, attempting to disrupt their wealthier
with genetically engineered crops achieving faster growth and higher yields,
counterparts’ engineered food supply chains.
leading to reduced land use, shorter supply chains, and less reliance on imports.
Food is grown closer to where it is consumed, leveraging advanced technologies to
create a resilient, efficient, and eco-friendly food system.

1 Genetic Privacy and Discrimination Risks 1 Adapting to the Never-Retiring Workforce

A rise in bioengineering raises concerns over genetic The increase in life expectancy will drive shifting career
data privacy. There’s a risk that insurers, employers, or dynamics, allowing businesses to develop new career
third parties could misuse individuals’ genetic data, paths, flexible working conditions, and retirement plans
leading to new forms of discrimination. that accommodate an aging but active workforce.
2 Automation In Employment 2 Bridging the Gap in Health Access

Integrating bioengineering in various industries Advancements in bioengineering offer unprecedented
may lead to significant job displacement. Traditional opportunities to address health inequities globally through
agriculture, construction, and health care roles could be more cost-effective production of pharmaceuticals.
transformed or made obsolete by automated processes.
3 Improved Food Access
3 Geopolitical Conflict Synthetic biology revolutionizes global food strategy by
The strategic advantage gained through bioengineering boosting crop resilience, enhancing nutrition, producing
capabilities could become a source of global tension. sustainable ingredients, developing alternative proteins,
Leading nations may exert influence over others, and reducing waste, leading to more resilient food systems.
leading to new forms of dependency and inequalities.

STRATEGIC QUESTIONS
1 2 3 4 5
How can synthetic What impacts do you How will your customers What skills and talent How do you plan to
biology be used to solve anticipate synthetic and the market respond do you need to leverage manage intellectual
previously unsolvable biology will have on to products or services synthetic biology in your property rights and
problems in your product your supply chain and developed through business effectively, protect innovations in the
R&D pipeline? procurement strategies? synthetic biology? and how do you plan to field of synthetic biology,
acquire them? and what challenges do
you foresee in this area?

03
How will countries and businesses
commit to decarbonization?

UNCERTAINTIES
How will countries and businesses

commit to decarbonization?
An Expanded Environmental Inclusive, Multifaceted

Blue Economy
Support Ecosystem Environmental Protection
Exploitation and Over-regulation

Sustainable Growth Environmental Holistic Benefits
Environmental Grid Optimization and Complexity
and Innovation Efforts Stagnate Are Realized
Degradation Dominate

2024 3. HOW WILL COUNTRIES AND BUSINESSES COMMIT TO DECARBONIZATION? EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
UNCERTAINTIES
Blue Economy
The blue economy, which promotes the sustainable use of ocean resources, plays an increasingly
important role in countries’ sustainability efforts by harnessing the ocean’s economic growth while
ensuring marine environmental health. This approach includes sustainable fisheries, renewable
marine energy, and eco-friendly tourism, all aimed at preserving ocean ecosystems and promoting
economic resilience.
Sustainable Growth and Innovation Exploitation and Environmental Degradation

Marine technology breakthroughs vastly improve sustainable fishing, ocean-based Inadequate global governance fuels overfishing, unregulated marine development,
renewable energy efficiency (like wave and tidal power), and ocean cleanup and pollution, drastically diminishing ocean resources.
efforts, significantly reducing marine pollution.
Wealthier nations disproportionately deplete these resources, leaving smaller
Concurrently, robust international agreements are instrumental in the effective coastal communities to bear the brunt of environmental harm and resource scarcity.
management of marine resources. These agreements introduce strict regulations
Ignoring sustainable methods leads to a sharp decline in biodiversity, undermining
to prevent overfishing and protect marine habitats from destruction. Because of
the blue economy’s growth, affecting worldwide food security, and disrupting
these combined efforts, the health of the marine ecosystem improves.
climate balance. These effects are most acutely felt by small coastal communities
reliant on the ocean for survival.

UNCERTAINTIES
An Expanded Environmental Support Ecosystem

Countries expand their environmental efforts beyond a narrow focus on renewable energy to include
broader ecosystem support. This involves enhancing infrastructure such as power grids and EV
charging networks, implementing environmental, social, and governance (ESG) policies, and bringing
greater transparency to carbon trading schemes. The aim is to take a more holistic approach to
sustaining healthy ecosystems while still continuing the transition toward clean energy.
Grid Optimization Environmental Efforts Stagnate

Energy grids have been upgraded through deployment of advanced energy Persistent power outages and insufficient electric vehicle infrastructure disrupt
storage systems, such as large-scale batteries and pumped hydro facilities. We economic activities, causing a dip in productivity and risking job losses. Since
now store excess renewable energy. There is widespread adoption of highly ESG regulations vary across regions, compliance is difficult. This leads to higher
efficient electric heat pumps for heating and cooling to reduce energy use and operational expenses and hampered economic expansion. A lack of transparency
curb emissions. New ESG policies include transparency for CO2 trading schemes. in carbon trading markets breeds investor skepticism, obstructing the development
of green finance.
Businesses supporting optimized grid initiatives benefit from reduced energy
costs thanks to improved stability and more energy-efficient technologies. These
businesses also tap into emerging renewable energy markets, creating new
revenue streams. Those leading the transition to sustainable power grids have a
first-mover advantage.

UNCERTAINTIES
Inclusive, Multifaceted Environmental Protection

The concept of environmental protection has evolved to become more inclusive. Countries and
businesses now recognize that it encompasses efforts to mitigate climate change and initiatives for
biodiversity conservation and the promotion of humane working conditions. This broader approach
integrates ecological sustainability with social responsibility, reflecting a more holistic understanding
of our interconnected world.
Holistic Benefits Are Realized Over-regulation and Complexity Dominate

Nations prioritize the conservation of diverse ecosystems, leading to increased Expanded environmental protection efforts bring complex and often competing
ecotourism, research opportunities, and sustainable resource management. regulations to the forefront, and governments have to wrestle with noncompliance
Responding to labor group advocacy, businesses adopt fair labor practices, and enforcement challenges. Businesses face exorbitant costs navigating this
including raising wages and prioritizing safer work environments. convoluted regulatory landscape, stifling innovation and hindering economic
growth. The high cost of transitioning to environmentally friendly legislation poses
Companies embrace comprehensive sustainability strategies that integrate
barriers to entry for smaller businesses, reducing market competition.
ecological, social, and economic considerations, leading to significant reductions
in resource waste and improved financial resilience. These strategies are effective In striving to meet a multitude of environmental goals, overemphasis on specific
because they strike a balance between environmental consciousness and business areas like biodiversity conservation diverts finite resources from urgent climate
viability, aligning with consumer preferences for environmentally responsible mitigation needs, impeding overall sustainability progress.
goods and services.

1 Compliance Complexity 1 Short-Term Gains

Diverse and changing ESG regulations across regions Businesses prioritizing short-term economic gains
can complicate compliance efforts, increasing over sustainability may benefit from lower compliance
operational costs and reducing competitiveness. and operational costs in the short term but could find
themselves ill-prepared over the mid-term as new
technologies and regulations begin to scale.
2 Technological Obsolescence
Rapid advancements in energy technologies could
render existing products and services obsolete, 2 New Revenue Streams
posing a threat to businesses unable to innovate Companies in the energy storage, electric heat pumps,
quickly. and renewable energy sectors could tap into new revenue
streams as their technologies and services become
increasingly in demand.
3 Implementation Costs
The costs associated with adopting comprehensive
sustainability strategies could be significant, 3 Comprehensive Sustainability
particularly for small and medium-sized enterprises Companies that adopt and integrate broad sustainability
(SMEs). strategies can appeal to a wider customer base, reduce
waste, and improve operational efficiencies.

STRATEGIC QUESTIONS
1 2 3 4 5
How is your business What strategies are How is your business How is your business What measures are in
leveraging technological in place to adapt preparing to align with diversifying its operations place to navigate the
advancements in to and comply with new ESG policies, and or supply chains to ensure complexity of expanded
marine technology to international marine what investments are resilience and sustained environmental regulations
promote sustainable resource management being made to upgrade or growth? without stifling
growth within the blue agreements, such as support the infrastructure innovation or economic
economy? in your supply chain for renewable energy and performance?
practices? grid optimization?

04
How will humans prioritize their
work environments in the future,
and what will these preferred
workplaces look like?

UNCERTAINTIES
How will humans prioritize their work

environments in the future, and what will these
preferred workplaces look like?
Enabled by Smart
Work Is Task-Dependent Purpose-Driven Locations
Workspaces and AI Agents
Decentralized Work Reskilling for Smart Workspaces AI Agents Manage Personalized Division in
Communities Task-Based Work Empower Talent Logistics Coworking Ecosystems Urban Areas

2024 4. HOW WILL HUMANS PRIORITIZE THEIR WORK ENVIRONMENTS IN THE FUTURE, AND WHAT WILL THESE PREFERRED WORKPLACES LOOK LIKE? EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
UNCERTAINTIES
Work Is Task-Dependent
Companies emphasize skill-focused tasks over traditional role-based assignments. This approach opens up
opportunities for both fixed-location and remote workers, breaking down previous barriers in talent pools.
Consequently, employees have the flexibility to work from home or community-based locations.
Decentralized Work Communities Reskilling for Task-Based Work
The social elements and team structures of traditional offices diminish in Ensuring the right skills for each job is a priority. Sensitive to the high search
importance. Without defined roles anchoring them together, employees perform costs for new talent, companies are interested in retaining and training existing
their individual tasks remotely. employees to meet evolving task needs. Traditional offices are nimble learning
centers focused on immersive training for current staff.
Workers split time between truly remote work and convening in smaller satellite
workspaces when they want a sense of community. Employees enjoy the This cultivated talent pipeline of cross-functional employees, versed in specific
flexibility to simultaneously hold multiple “careers,” contributing varied tasks to an on-demand abilities, replaces siloed departments. Companies equip their
ecosystem of employers rather than being siloed at any single organization. workforce with precise capabilities rather than seeking elusive candidate fits.

UNCERTAINTIES
Enabled by Smart Workspaces and AI Agents

Workflows are enabled by fluid, personalized environments that empower productivity with human
and artificial partners working in concert. People are free to perform, augmented by supportive
spaces that travel with them.
Smart Workspaces Empower Talent AI Agents Manage Logistics
Offices function as intelligent computing zones. Spatial computing and natural Specialized AI agents handle distinct tasks. A product manager AI agent could
language processing enable embodied interaction. Employees’ tasks and projects aid market analysis, prioritize features, and develop business cases. Meanwhile, a
surface on walls and tables as they enter a room. Workers can literally get a grasp developer agent would focus on automating code generation and detecting bugs.
on their work by manipulating 3D projections by hand. Voice commands replace
Each person’s AI agent coordinates to remove logistical burdens. Christina’s
typing for nimble modification.
assistant tracks that she prefers morning meetings. Jeff’s assistant knows he favors
Employees gain sensory proximity to their work. Previously abstract digital files early afternoons. By sharing insights into their humans’ constraints, the assistants
are now tangible in augmented environments that both feel familiar and unleash identify 11 a.m. as the optimal meeting time. Because the assistants dynamically
workspace innovation. adjust activities based on their human’s context, they enable new flexibility: Workers
can perform efficiently wherever they happen to be.

UNCERTAINTIES
Purpose-Driven Locations
Workers want transparency and a seat at the table to make company decisions. Labor unions
and employees continue to push for greater autonomy and new benefit packages and locations.
Companies join together to offer a complex of potential work environments, creating stability in some
urban regions.
Personalized Coworking Ecosystems Division in Urban Areas
Employees have access to coworking ecosystems that cater to their lifestyles. The urban centers of cities are becoming patchworks of utilitarian spaces that lack
For health buffs, wellness hubs provide gyms, cold plunges, and saunas. Parents the vibrancy and interconnectedness of traditional urban life. As offices emptied
join family-friendly sites with childcare and nursing spaces. Rather than isolated out due to employee cynicism, businesses turned their properties into lab spaces,
offices, companies cluster in amenity-rich locales to give workers choices. vertical farms, and storage. Socio-economic divides are deep, as these spaces do
not address communal needs, only corporate interests. Once vibrant downtowns
Workers evaluate these full experience packages when considering job
focus on efficiency and production versus community connection. Manufacturers
opportunities. Companies differentiate with tailored sites while still coming
are using the empty spaces to fill warehouses and production sites closer to their
together in broader mixed-use developments. Competing businesses may not
consumers. Malls and other shopping facilities that moved out of downtown now
share ecosystems, but complementary industries do, recognizing the potential for
compete with these manufacturing centers.
expanded talent recruitment and retention.

1 Ethical Challenges with AI Integration 1 Talent Ecosystem Development

Integrating AI agents into the workforce introduces Companies and industries can develop talent ecosystems
cultural and ethical challenges, including dependency that foster cross-pollination of skills and ideas by creating
on technology, potential job displacement concerns, and networks of complementary businesses and coworking
ethical considerations around AI decision-making. spaces that enhance talent satisfaction and retention.
2 Overdependence on Technology 2 Urban Redevelopment and Repurposing

Heavy reliance on smart workspaces and AI for operational Municipalities and businesses will need advice on
efficiency could lead to overdependence on technology, repurposing urban spaces that have lost their traditional
making companies vulnerable to tech failures, outages, or vibrancy due to shifts in work patterns.
obsolescence.
3 Purpose-Driven Workspace Solutions
3 Fraud Risk Companies may create purpose-driven locations and
As decentralized work scales alongside increasingly co-working ecosystems that align with their employees’
sophisticated AI, various forms of deepfakes could values and lifestyle preferences. This could involve strategic
present a security risk to remote working environments, planning for the use of corporate real estate to support
necessitating businesses to improve their cybersecurity community engagement, wellness, and collaboration.
preparedness.

STRATEGIC QUESTIONS
1 2 3 4 5
How can we develop a In what ways can What do we need to How can we leverage How can we use new and
continuous learning and we leverage smart reevaluate or adjust data and analytics emerging technologies
development ecosystem workspaces and AI in order to remain to improve remote to foster innovation
to ensure our workforce agents to enhance competitive in attracting work productivity and and creativity in a
remains adaptable and productivity without and retaining top talent employee engagement predominantly remote or
skilled for future tasks? compromising security, as the workspace while respecting privacy hybrid workforce?
privacy, and employee evolves? and autonomy?
well-being?

05
In the context of increasing
protectionism and
geopolitical tensions, what is
the future of the global chip
manufacturing industry?

UNCERTAINTIES
In the context of increasing protectionism and

geopolitical tensions, what is the future of the
global chip manufacturing industry?
Chip Imports and Exports Are Protectionist Policies The Cost of Data
Increasingly Restricted Result in a Skills Gap Centers Rise
In-House Production Open Borders for Tech Companies as

The US Dominates China Rallies The End User Pays
and Training Ramp Up Chip Industry Growth New Energy Providers

2024 5. IN THE CONTEXT OF INCREASING PROTECTIONISM AND GEOPOLITICAL TENSIONS, WHAT IS THE FUTURE OF THE GLOBAL CHIP MANUFACTURING INDUSTRY? EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
UNCERTAINTIES
Chip Imports and Exports Are Increasingly Restricted

The industry continues its pivot toward strategic autonomy. Defensively, the US is onshoring
chip production to prevent supply chain disruptions like those during the Covid semiconductor
shortage. Offensively, the US is strategically preventing exports to get a leg up in the AI race
against China. Meanwhile, independent companies, like OpenAI, want to create new types of
chips that won’t run afoul of government regulations.
The US Dominates China Rallies

The US tightens enforcement of chip exports to prevent adversaries from US-led export controls do not prevent China and other adversaries from acquiring
attaining US chips and manufacturing equipment. US allies are required to do powerful chips from companies like Nvidia. Black markets emerge for such chips,
the same. Technologies like geotracking prevent leaks in export controls, thereby and IP espionage efforts ramp up. With these powerful chips, China’s AI rivals US
more effectively curbing US technologies from getting to China and Russia. This AI companies in capabilities. There is a bifurcation of “Eastern AI” and “Western AI.”
challenges those countries’ reliance on foreign chips, pressuring their big tech to
China also continues to dominate global legacy chip production. Legacy chips
innovate with less sophisticated resources.
underpin everything from microwaves to military weapons systems. China boxes
Since China is a major player in the consumer electronics market, the restrictions out foreign competitors through dumping, rendering the US dependent on China,
lead to higher prices and limited availability of various consumer goods worldwide. at least for legacy chips.

UNCERTAINTIES
Protectionist Policies Result in a Skills Gap

The expertise required for chip design and production, previously outsourced affordably, is now
lacking domestically. As a result, manufacturing chips domestically has become a costly endeavor.
This has sparked intense competition among companies to attract and acquire talent specialized
in chip design and manufacturing.
In-House Production and Training Ramp Up Open Borders for Chip Industry Growth
Semiconductor companies are bringing chip production in-house and cultivating Progress in opening new fabrication plants, funded by the US Chips Act, has
essential skills internally. They also in-source skills training by reaching out to high been slower than anticipated. The fabs’ hosts, including cities in Texas, Ohio, and
school students, offering a direct path into the burgeoning US chip industry. This Florida, worry about becoming modern equivalents of Detroit—where initial high
new model positions the semiconductor sector as a realm of new blue-collar investments won’t yield long-term benefits.
workers. By providing in-house training and certification, these companies offer
States traditionally resistant to open immigration policies are shifting their stance,
young talent a debt-free alternative to college education, enabling them to start
and the US is responding with expedited visas for skilled workers, particularly
earning immediately while learning specialized skills.
from Taiwan, leading to a notable brain drain in the island nation and increased
tensions with China.

UNCERTAINTIES
The Cost of Data Centers Rise

As AI-driven workloads intensify, the operational costs of data centers are escalating. The
increased demand for processing power and energy to support complex AI tasks significantly
drives up the expenses associated with maintaining and running these facilities.
Tech Companies as New Energy Providers The End User Pays

Tech companies are venturing into producing alternative, cost-effective energy Data center efficiency advancements have reached a plateau, compelling the
sources like small modular reactors and geothermal power. This move is not just industry to focus on expansion to meet increasing workload demands.
about affordability; it represents a leap in overcoming long-standing negative
Providers can try to stay in densely populated areas that offer skilled labor
perceptions of nuclear energy and its historical barriers of high costs and lengthy
availability and robust fiber networks, but they’ll have to deal with increasing
construction times.
restrictions amid concerns that data centers exacerbate energy shortages. Or
The implications are profound, and not just for the energy sector: Apartment they could venture into less ideal locations lacking infrastructure and requiring
buildings will be powered, cooled, and lit efficiently by Amazon, and entire substantial capital investment. Either option presents an increased cost of digital
neighborhoods receive clean, cost-effective energy from Google or Microsoft. services for consumers and a significant ripple effect across the economy.

1 Big tech gets bolder 1 Cultivate partner and supplier relationships

Utilities could become disintermediated by tech Businesses will need to develop new partners,
companies, who find a competitive advantage in manufacturers, and markets so they have first mover
bundling energy with other services. advantage if geopolitical tensions rise unchecked,
impacting access to key components and markets.
2 Regulatory disruption
Changes in trade policies and regulations in 2 Get local
key markets could affect access to critical chip Companies may Invest in local or regional production
technologies and materials. capabilities to reduce dependence on global markets,
increasing customization capabilities and time to market.
3 Tech transfer
Intellectual property and sensitive technology 3 Fund alternatives
become entangled in technology transfer Technology firms must invest more in research and
regulations, especially in countries involved in development to create more advanced or alternative chip
geopolitical tensions. technologies that address the emerging challenges.

STRATEGIC QUESTIONS
1 2 3 4 5
How will geopolitical Do you have a robust How must you enhance How do geopolitical Considering the current
tensions affect the cost crisis management plan your cybersecurity tensions affect and potential future
of chips, and how can that includes scenarios measures to protect your commitment geopolitical landscape,
you mitigate these cost involving escalated against potential to environmental how should you adjust
increases? geopolitical tensions threats exacerbated by sustainability and ethical our long-term strategic
affecting chip supply? geopolitical tensions, sourcing, especially positioning to ensure
What financial cushions especially in critical concerning rare materials sustainability and
can be put in place to infrastructure related to used in chip production? growth?
absorb potential shocks? chip manufacturing and
distribution?

ABOUT
FUTURE TODAY
INSTITUTE

AUTHORS & CONTRIBUTORS
AMY WEBB Creative Director

Chief Executive Officer EMILY CAUFIELD
Recognized as the global leader in strategic on the 2021 Thinkers 50 list, was shortlisted for the U.S.-Russia Bilateral Presidential Commission, rep-
foresight, Amy Webb advises business leaders 2021 Digital Thinking Award, and received the 2017 resenting US interests in technology. Editors
through disruptive change, enabling them to Thinkers50 Radar Award. Forbes called Amy “one of ERICA PETERSON
navigate an unpredictable future with confidence the five women changing the world,” and she was Regarded as one of the most important voices on
and take actions that address global challenges, honored as one of the BBC’s 100 Women of 2020. the futures of technology (with specializations in
Copy Editor
create sustainable value, and ensure a compa- both AI and synthetic biology), Amy is the author of
SARAH JOHNSON
ny’s long-term growth. As founder and CEO of the Amy also serves as a professor of strategic foresight four books, including the international bestseller The
Future Today Institute, Amy pioneered a unique at New York University’s Stern School of Business, Big Nine and her most recent, The Genesis Ma-
where she developed and teaches the MBA-level chine, which was listed as one of the best nonfiction Director of Operations
quantitative modeling approach and data-driv-
strategic foresight course with live case studies. She books of 2022 by The New Yorker. To date, her books CHERYL COONEY
en foresight methodology that identifies signals
of change and emerging patterns very early. is a Visiting Fellow at Oxford University’s Säid School have been translated into 19 languages. A widely
Using that information, Amy and her colleagues of Business. She was elected a life member of the published and quoted thought leader, Amy regu-
identify white spaces, opportunities, and threats Council on Foreign Relations and is a member of the larly appears in a wide range of publications and
early enough for action. They develop predictive Bretton Woods Committee. She is a Steward and broadcasts.
scenarios, along with executable strategy, for their Steering Committee Member for the World Econom-
global client base. In 2023, Amy was recognized ic Forum, a founding member of the Forum’s Strate-
as the #4 most influential management thinker gic Foresight Council, a member of the Forum’s Risk
in the world by Thinkers50, a biannual ranking of Advisory Council, and serves on the Forum’s Global
global business thinkers. She was also featured Futures Council. She was a Delegate on the former

MELANIE SUBIN
Managing Director
Melanie Subin is Managing Director of Future tion, changing consumer and business preferences,
Today Institute, where she serves on our manage- and rising connectivity on the evolution and transfor-
ment committee and leads our consulting division. mation of industries and markets across the globe.
Renowned for her pragmatic, forward-thinking
approach, Melanie has successfully steered Melanie is a recognized expert in fostering psycho-
numerous clients towards future-ready strategies, logical safety within teams, a crucial element for
harnessing emerging trends and technologies operationalizing strategic foresight effectively. Her
to identify risk and opportunity early enough for work emphasizes creating an environment where
action. Her leadership has significantly impacted open dialogue and innovative thinking are encour-
how industries envision and execute their long- aged, enabling organizations to embrace change
term strategies. and navigate future uncertainties with confidence.
Melanie specializes in strategic transformation, Melanie serves in the World Economic Forum’s
quantitative and qualitative research, and scenar- Metaverse Working Group and is a founding mem-
io development. With deep expertise in the devel- ber of the Dubai Future Forum’s advisory group. She
opment and establishment of foresight capabilities serves as a coach in the strategic foresight MBA
within large organizations, Melanie regularly coun- course at the NYU Stern School of Business. Melanie
sels C-staff on strategy and execution. She has holds a BS in Finance from Central Connecticut
spent years assessing the impact of major external State University and a Fintech Certification from the
forces such as increasing technological sophistica- Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

NICK BARTLETT SAM JORDAN

Director Manager
Nick Bartlett is a Director at the Future Today and signal identification for large organizations. Sam Jordan is a Manager at Future Today Insti- better data management practices to address
Institute and leads our Insurance practice area. Nick has also led the design and establishment of tute. She leads our Advanced Computing practice challenges in scientific replication. Previously,
internal foresight and scenario development capa- area, which includes technology, artificial intelli- she worked for IBM, where she helped large
Before FTI, he held positions in corporate strat- gence, virtual realities, networking, telecommuni-
bilities across multiple institutions. enterprises in the retail and distribution sector
egy and insights generation roles, serving as a cations, and space. She is a distinguished practice modernize their IT stack. Her expertise centered
partner to senior leadership at multiple Fortune He is a coach in the strategic foresight MBA course area lead, where she enables organizations to around mainframes, assisting with the integra-
100 financial services companies. Throughout his at the NYU Stern School of Business. Nick holds an navigate through uncertainty with innovative tion of new software and modern methodolo-
career, he has specialized in framework design, MBA and a Bachelor of Arts in Public Relations from strategies. With a proven track record across vari- gies to legacy systems.
corporate innovation, strategic management, Quinnipiac University. ous sectors, Sam’s visionary leadership has driven
and insurance. growth and resilience for Future Today Institute’s Sam is a coach in the strategic foresight MBA
global clients and partners. course at the NYU Stern School of Business. She
Nick has an extensive background in developing
holds a BS in Economics and Data Analysis from
strategic insights across a variety of industries Before joining FTI, Sam was the CEO and George Mason University and an MBA from New
(e.g., manufacturing, transportation, construction, co-founder of TrovBase, a secure data discovery York University’s Stern School of Business.
energy) and subject matter areas (e.g., small busi- and analysis-sharing platform. Sam grew the
ness, mobility, robotics, platforms & ecosystems), company from idea to launch and executed the
in addition to the shifting nature of business and company’s transition from scientific replication
consumer preferences. He has deep experience to its current focus. In parallel, Sam engaged with
developing and implementing trend modeling the open science community, advocating for

CHRISTINA VON MESSLING MARK BRYAN

Senior Manager Senior Manager
Christina von Messling leads our European client developments. She has advised leading pharma- Mark Bryan is a Senior Foresight Manager at the Mark’s portfolio of clients includes national foun-
portfolio and our Life Sciences practice area at ceutical and healthcare companies, as well as Future Today Institute and leads our Built Envi- dations, global CPG companies, international
Future Today Institute. She is renowned for her ex- beauty, entertainment, media, and retail brands. ronment, Hospitality, Retail, Restaurants & CPG associations, product manufacturers, national
pertise in strategic foresight and an unparalleled practice areas. Mark excels in applying strategic retail brands, multi-family developers, health-
ability to navigate complex industry landscapes. Christina is a coach in the strategic foresight MBA foresight to design and the built environment, care systems, senior living facilities, restaurants,
With a career spanning over two decades, she course at the NYU Stern School of Business. She anticipating future need states for our physical and large multinationals. Mark has produced
has guided multinational corporations through holds a Masters in Law from the Freie Universität and organizational spaces. His expertise in inte- original research and strategic analysis on the
transformative strategies, leveraging his deep Berlin, where she graduated within the top 10% of grating strategic planning with innovative design future of co-living, senior living, workplaces, play,
understanding of market dynamics and future the nation. She works from offices in New York City, principles empowers businesses to anticipate hotels and resorts, dining, and distance learning.
trends. Berlin, and London. and adapt to future trends, fostering sustainable
growth, resiliency, and transformative change in Mark is a coach in the strategic foresight MBA
Christina’s diverse experience across sectors their industries. course at the NYU Stern School of Business. He
enables her to craft visionary scenarios and holds a BS in Interior Design from Virginia Tech
strategies, driving sustainable growth and inno- Before FTI, Mark worked as a workplace strategist, and NCDIQ Certification.
vation for clients worldwide. Having split her time designer, design researcher, and futurist for clients
between Europe, the UK, Brazil, and the US, she across the country, most recently through his role
combines a global perspective with in-depth, as Director of Innovation + Research at a design
holistic expertise of the main drivers of change: and architecture firm.
technology, geopolitical, economic, and societal

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DISCLAIMER
The views expressed herein are the authors’ own and are not representative
of the greater organizations in which they have been employed. The names
of companies, services, and products mentioned in this report are not nec-
essarily intended as endorsements by Future Today Institute or this report’s
authors.
Future Today Institute’s 2024 Tech Trends Report relies on data, analysis, and
modeling from a number of sources, which includes sources within pub-
lic and private companies, securities filings, patents, academic research,
government agencies, market research firms, conference presentations and
papers, and news media stories. Additionally, this report draws from Future
Today Institute’s previous EMT Trends Reports, FTI Trend Reports, and news-
letters. FTI’s reports are occasionally updated on the FTI website.
FTI advises hundreds of companies and organizations, some of which are

referenced in this report. FTI does not own any equity position in any of the
entities listed in this presentation.
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spective owners, who do not endorse the statements in this report. All rights
in marks are reserved by their respective owners. We disclaim any and all
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17TH EDITION • 2024 TECH TRENDS REPORT

THE YEAR AHEAD: TECH SUPERCYCLE

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Computing AR/ VR/ XR Web3

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