INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF PRODUCTION RESEARCH

2022, VOL. 60, NO. 24, 7141–7154

https://doi.org/10.1080/00207543.2022.2118889

RESEARCH ARTICLE

The shortage economy and its implications for supply chain and operations
management
Dmitry Ivanov a and Alexandre Dolgui b

a Berlin School of Economics and Law, Supply Chain and Operations Management, Berlin, Germany; b IMT Atlantique, LS2N – CNRS, La
Chantrerie, Nantes, France

ABSTRACT ARTICLE HISTORY

Supply chain (SC) and operations management has been developed for decades under the funda- Received 19 December 2021
mental assumption of continuous availability (with some temporary fluctuations and disruptions) Accepted 12 August 2022
of resources to satisfy demand. Under extreme shocks and long-lasting disruptions, SCs and opera- KEYWORDS
tions face long-term shortages of components, energy, capital, and labour, as well as rapidly rising Supply chain resilience;
prices. These long-term resource shortages and risks of hyper-inflation pose novel and unexpected ripple effect; viability;
challenges potentially leading to global ripple effects. In this conceptual paper, we first analyse COVID-19 pandemic;
and categorise the available literature on SC and operations management with resource shortages. inflation; semiconductor
We then systemise some managerial implications of resource shortages and rising inflation, con- shortage
ceptualising some potential research directions which appeared or may appear in the settings of
shortage economy. We conclude that the shortage economy provides a distinct and specific context
which goes beyond the conventional problems under constrained or disrupted resources – i.e. the
long-term resource shortages with simultaneous disruptions in labour, material, energy, and capital
availability. This paper could be useful for researchers and practitioners alike to systemise potential
impacts of a shortage economy on SCs and operations, and to navigate adaptation and recovery
processes in a structured way to help society cope with deep uncertainties.

1. Introduction
A transition from an economy of scale via economies
of scope, speed, and collaboration had been expected
to develop toward a digital economy and global, green
growth. However, we are now faced with what appears
to be an economy marred by widespread shortages. The
supply chain and operations management paradigms in
the last years prior to the COVID-19 pandemic were
guided predominantly by efficiency-oriented thinking
(Simchi-Levi, Kaminsky, and Simchi-Levi 2007; Chopra
and Meindl 2015) and a collaboration mentality (Heden-
stierna et al. 2019; Chopra and Meindl 2015; Cachon
and Terwiesch 2020). For decades, the fundamental
assumption of continuous (with some temporary fluctu-
ations and disruptions) availability of resources to satisfy
demand has been considered taken for granted (Dol-
gui and Proth 2010; MacCarthy et al. 2016; Ivanov,
Tsipoulanidis, and Schönberger 2021). The next stages
of development were expected to be related to resilient,
digital and circular economies (Choi et al. 2021; Ivanov,
Tsipoulanidis, and Schönberger 2021; Zhang et al. 2021;
MacCarthy and Ivanov 2022).
While resilient, digital and sustainable transforma-
tions remain the central development angles, the trend
of shortages in all the resources needed for production
and logistics operations in supply chains can be observed.
Shortages can be seen in almost all the resources
such as labour, material, energy, and capital. Moreover,
local shortages lead to global ripple effects, i.e. disrup-
tion propagations across supply chain networks (Ivanov,
Sokolov, and Dolgui 2014; Dolgui, Ivanov, and Sokolov
2018; Li et al. 2021; Llaguno, Mula, and Campuzano-
Bolarin 2021; Park et al. 2021).
Energy, workforce, and materials are becoming scarce,
and supply chains are adapting to cope with resource
shortages along with rapidly rising prices and associ-
ated risks of hyper-inflation. For example, semiconductor
shortage has caused global ripple effects and tremendous
problems in the supply chains of automotive and elec-
tronics industries (Shead 2021). Power outage in Texas
in February 2021 and Heilongjiang, Jilin and Liaoning
provinces in China in 2021 led to severe consequences for
societal viability and supply chain resilience (Disis 2021).
Busby et al. (2021) point to economic losses from lost

CONTACT Dmitry Ivanov divanov@hwr-berlin.de Supply Chain and Operations Management, Berlin School of Economics and Law, Berlin 10825,
Germany

© 2022 Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group

7142 D. IVANOV AND A. DOLGUI
output and damage that are estimated to be $130 billion
in Texas alone. The global supply chains experienced an
unprecedented shortage of transportation capacities in
2020–2022 caused by the imbalances in inter-continental
logistics flows limiting the number of available contain-
ers and resulting in an increase in freight prices, product
shortages, and overall destabilisation of supply chains
(Ziady 2021). According to global container freight rate
index, container freight rates increased dramatically from
$1279 in September 2019 to $10,323 in September 2021
(Statista 2021). As a delayed effect of the COVID-19 pan-
demic, demand and markets have recovered much faster
than expected, while the supply and production capac-
ity ramp-up times were longer and resulted in a severe
mismatch between demand and supply (Brusset, Jebali,
and La Torre 2022; Rozhkov et al. 2022; Sodhi, Tang, and
Willenson 2021; Delasay, Jain, and Kumar 2022; Moham-
madi et al. 2022; Ramani, Ghosh, and Sodhi 2022).
Sometimes, managers refer to the shortage setting as
supply chain chaos which results in global ripple effects
(Hosseini and Ivanov 2021; Sawik 2022). According to
the Ifo Institute (2021), 100% of bicycle retailers, 99% of
DIY stores, 97% of electronics retailers, and 78% of com-
puter retailers in Germany experienced supply problems
in September 2021. Later, in March 2022, 90% of Ger-
man firms in key sectors such as automotive, machine
building, and electronics suffered from material short-
ages resulting in missing products and very long lead
times for end customers (Otte and Filges 2022). Accord-
ing to the survey of 3000 German firms, 67% of firms plan
to increase prices for their end products as a reaction to
material price increases, 64% of firms are searching for
new suppliers, 61% plan to increase inventory, and 17%
see new and recyclable materials, as well as workforce
adaptation and re-location of facilities, as possible solu-
tions to resolve the material shortage problems (DIHK
2022).
This might be a temporary crisis or a long-term trend
– regardless of the duration, resource scarcity and risks
of hyper-inflation pose novel and unexpected challenges
to supply chain and operations management resulting
in, and going beyond the scope of temporary disrup-
tions. Although, a considerable amount of work has been
done in the areas of supply chain resilience (Bagher-
sad et al. 2021; Lücker, Chopra, and Seifert 2021; Li
et al. 2021), aggregate planning and associated models
designed for multiple future scenarios (Dolgui and Proth
2010; Cachon and Terwiesch 2020), dynamic and reactive
re-scheduling (Chen and Hall 2022, Pinedo 2022), and
reverse supply chains and the circular economy (Zhang
et al. 2021).
On the other hand, most of the existing methods
and models consider disruptions and shortages from a
short-term, temporary perspective. For example, supply
chain design and planning methods generally presume
resource availability and rational customer behaviours.
These methods mostly utilise a top-down planning
approach starting from the demand forecasts and assume
availability of production capacities and materials, even
if with some constraints, can be taken for granted. These
assumptions require some critical reconsideration in the
setting of a shortage economy.
The major objective of this paper is the understand-
ing of the implications of a shortage economy on supply
chains and operations and a discussion on some new
research areas instigated by the novel context of the short-
age economy is. In this conceptual paper, we are guided
by the following research questions: what are the impli-
cations of long-term resource shortages on supply chains
and operations and what are the related, new research
areas?
First, we analyse and categorise extant literature on
supply chain and operations management dealing with
resource shortages. We then systemise the possible impli-
cations of scarce resources and inflation on supply
chains. Subsequently, we conceptualise and classify some
research streams which may appear in the setting of
shortage economy. We conclude with some generalisa-
tions and final remarks.
2. Literature analysis
The literature analysis presented here is a selection by
the authors based on some objective criteria from oper-
ations management literature: e.g. resource classification
(i.e. material, capital, energy, workforce) and supply chain
processes (i.e. source, make, deliver). It is not a structured
literature review and we do not pretend this analysis can
be considered as a definitive and exhaustive one.
To organise the literature analysis, we consider four
major supply chain resources according to (Ivanov,
Tsipoulanidis, and Schönberger 2021) which are work-
force, materials, energy, and capital.
2.1. Labour shortage
The topic of human resources in supply chains and
operations management became increasingly important
in recent years (Grosse et al. 2017; Battini, Finco, and
Sgarbossa 2020; Sgarbossa et al. 2020; Katiraee et al.
2021). Specifically, manufacturing planning and schedul-
ing with varying and constrained workforces has been
studied (Berti et al. 2021). In the supply chain context,
the COVID-19 pandemic provoked a number of studies
accounting for workforce infection dynamics as a planning
factor (Bodenstein, Corsetti, and Guerrieri 2020; Paul

and Chowdhury 2021; Nagurney 2021; Brusset, Jebali,
and La Torre 2022; Rozhkov et al. 2022). Frequently, the
pandemic-driven workforce dynamics and uncertainty
was modelled using the SIR-based models, which include
varying the workforce due to a global epidemiological
crisis (Nikolopoulos et al. 2020; Chowdhury et al. 2021).
Hashemi-Petroodi et al. (2020) and (2021) and Dolgui,
Sgarbossa, and Simonetto (2022) point to cross-training
of workers, temporary workers, collaborative human-
robot systems, and digital technology as capabilities to be
built into ensuring workforce reconfigurability.
2.2. Material/component shortage
The material and component shortage represents the
largest body of literature on supply chain risks and
resilience (Tang 2006; Blackhurst et al. 2005; Klibi, Mar-
tel, and Guitouni 2010; Aldrighetti et al. 2021; Hosseini,
Ivanov, and Dolgui 2019; Sawik 2020; Ivanov 2021d;
Wicaksana et al. 2022) as well as material requirements
planning under uncertainty (Dolgui and Prodhon 2007).
Supply, logistics, and production disruptions have been
extensively studied in terms of their performance impact,
mitigation and recovery strategies, such as backup sup-
pliers, capacity agility, and inventory buffers (Akkermans
and van Wassenhove 2018; Baghersad et al. 2021; Bode
et al. 2011; Chopra, Sodhi, and Lücker 2021; Demirel
et al. 2019; Dolgui, Ivanov, and Rozhkov 2020a; Dubey,
Gunasekaran, and Papadopoulos 2019; Gupta, Ivanov,
and Choi 2021 ; Ivanov 2021d; Lücker, Chopra, and
Seifert 2021; Sanci et al. 2021). Disruption propagation,
i.e. the ripple effect has also received attention (Dolgui,
Ivanov, and Sokolov 2018; Ghadge et al. 2021; Gholami-
Zanjani et al. 2021; Li et al. 2021; Llaguno, Mula, and
Campuzano-Bolarin 2021; Park et al. 2021, Shi et al.
2021b).
The COVID-19 pandemic impact has been recog-
nised as crucial not only for resilience of individual sup-
ply chains, but also for the viability of entire business
ecosystems (Ivanov and Dolgui 2020; Choi 2021; Burgos
and Ivanov 2021). Viability is the supply chain ability to
survive through a severe crisis and to secure the viabil-
ity of critical ecosystems (e.g. communication, mobility,
and food) responsible for providing society with goods
and services (Ivanov and Dolgui 2021a; Ivanov 2020b,
2021c; Ruel et al. 2021; Nasir et al. 2021; Wang and Yao
2021; Christopher and Hartmann 2022; Liu et al. 2022).
Moreover, new digital technologies have been studied
to understand their role in resilience improvement, e.g.
Blockchain (Yoon et al. 2020, Shen et al. 2021; Li et al.
2022), Industry 4.0 (Rai et al. 2021; Zouari, Ruel, and
Viale 2021), big data analytics (Dubey et al. 2021; Brin-
trup et al. 2020; Ivanov, Blackhurst, and Das 2021b),
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF PRODUCTION RESEARCH 7143
digital twins (Ivanov 2021a; Ivanov and Dolgui 2021b;
Sharma et al. 2022), and 5G technologies (Dolgui and
Ivanov 2022). New concepts such as The Reconfigurable
Supply Chain (Dolgui, Ivanov, and Sokolov 2020b) and
Intertwined Supply Networks (Ivanov and Dolgui 2020;
Feizabadi, Gligor, and Choi 2021; Sodhi, Tang, and Wil-
lenson 2021) have been proposed. Specifically, there have
been studies of important cases of supply networks for
vaccine distribution, whose resilience and efficiency have
also been considered (Mohammadi, Thevenin, and Dol-
gui 2022).
2.3. Energy shortage
Literature is rich in studies on energy supply chains
(Sarkar and Seo 2021; Axon and Darton 2021), even
with consideration of energy shortages (Sánchez, Martín,
and Zhang 2021; Xiang 2020), resilience of energy sup-
ply chains (Urciuoli et al. 2014; Emenike and Falcone
2020) and sustainable energy use in supply chains (Xu
et al. 2022). Another visible research stream is energy-
efficient manufacturing (Battini et al. 2016; Battaïa et al.
2020; Alaouchiche, Ouazene, and Yalaoui 2021). How-
ever, we are not aware of any study on how energy short-
age/outages influence material flows in supply chains, i.e.
the blackout risk in supply chains, apart from one study
(Ivanov 2022a). Extensions of this analysis are of utmost
importance. The transformation of the energy sector
along with increasingly volatile global and local environ-
ments puts the questions of energy-efficiency and energy-
resilience at the forefront of supply chain and operations
management. While research on energy-efficient manu-
facturing and logistics has been flourishing in industrial
engineering for the last two decades, the integrated sup-
ply chain perspective of energy-efficiency still needs to
be developed. The energy-resilience of supply chains is
a new and unexplored research domain, where the large
body of knowledge from supply chain resilience can be
used to develop this exciting and practically important
area.
2.4. Capital shortage
The first relevant research stream is related to the order
quantity planning and contracting with consideration of
inflation (Sarker, Jamal, and Wang 2000; Kouvelis, Turcic,
and Zhao 2018). Many studies specifically focus on the
deterioration of products (Moon, Giri, and Ko 2005; Ho
2006; Nagaraju et al. 2016; Huang, Yang, and Wang 2021).
Second, the settings with capital-constrained suppliers,
which deals with financing options for the supply chain,
have been extensively examined (Jin et al. 2010, Shi et al.
2021a, Zhi, Wang and Xu 2022). Credits, and even sup-
7144 D. IVANOV AND A. DOLGUI
plier bankruptcy, have also been studied in this research
domain (Kouvelis and Zhao 2016, 2018; Choi and Shi
2022). Most recently, Blockchain has been studied as a
disruptive digital technology to be applied in the setting
of supply chain finance (Choi and Ivanov 2020; Stern-
berg, Hofmann, and Roeck 2021). Moretto and Caniato
(2021) examined supply chain finance as an instrument
to cope with the COVID-19 pandemic settings. However,
the existing literature on inflation and capital constraints
mostly considers business-as-usual deviations without
the extremal shock context such as hyper-inflation. In
Table 1, we summarise examples of topics addressed in
the existing literature and relevant to the shortage econ-
omy.
The examples considered show some evidence of the
problems dealing with constraints and disruptions on
labour, materials, capital, and energy across different
decision-making levels. This is an invaluable body of
knowledge which is of utmost importance for research
in the settings of the shortage economy. With that said,
the shortage economy provides a distinct and specific
context which goes beyond the conventional problems
under constrained or disrupted resources: i.e. the long-
term resource shortages with simultaneous disruptions
in labour, material, energy, and capital availability along
with the risks of hyper-inflation. We elaborate on this
novel and underexplored context in the next sections.
3. Implications of the shortage economy for
supply chain and operations management
theory and practice
The spread of shortages in 2021–2022 had two major
origins which are
• Acute, pandemic-induced reasons (Queiroz et al.
2020) and
• Chronic, long-term reasons (Ivanov and Dolgui
2021a).
The COVID-19 pandemic certainly induced the
shortage economy through destabilisation of supply
and demand (Ardolino, Bacchetti, and Ivanov 2022a;
Rozhkov et al. 2022). The delayed effects of the lock-
downs and shutdowns, also referenced in literature as
after-shock events and disruption tails (Ivanov 2021b;
Ivanov and Rozhkov 2020) have been observed since
2021 and onwards. The demand and market have recov-
ered much faster than expected, while the supply and
production capacity ramp-up times were longer.
These acute, pandemic-induced effects have been
worsened by the simultaneous deployment of long-term
problems such as semiconductor shortage, increasing
workforce deficits, Brexit, and global trade risks. The
freight rates for containers between China/South Asia
and Northern Europe increased by 1050% in October
2021 in comparison with October 2019 (Freightos 2021).
This has been both a consequence of the supply chain
chaos during the 2020 and a driver of inflation, which
in turn induced panic buying in the B2B (business-to-
business) sector and the resulting material shortages.
Another reason for inflation and increasing transporta-
tion rates is seen in rapidly increasing energy prices start-
ing in the third quarter of 2021. These material shortages
also lead to price increases and induce inflation.
Examples of the potential implications of the shortage
economy on supply chain and operations management
are multiple and challenge existing design and planning
methods due to a number of new settings (Table 2).
First, most supply chain and operations manage-
ment methods presume availability of resources and
rational customer behaviour. The planning is usually
organised using the top-down approach starting with
demand forecasting and subsequent production and
material requirements planning. The shortage econ-
omy can induce bottom-up planning when supply leads
demand (Glinsky, Chopra, and Lücker 2021). For exam-
ple, missing components may result in the need to pro-
duce only a limited number of products, thus reduc-
ing the product variety. In the worst case scenario, the
production planning might be driven by the available
materials and components, and not by the customer
demand.
Second, forecasting and planning under unpredictable
customer and supplier behaviours can become necessary
during the shortage economy. As observed in the wake
of the COVID-19 pandemic in spring 2020, customer
behaviour has been unpredictable for many products,
causing the bullwhip-effect (Paul and Chowdhury 2021;
Paul et al. 2022). The semiconductor shortage and trans-
portation market chaos in 2021 led to unpredictable sup-
plier behaviour driven by material shortages and infla-
tion. In addition, the danger of energy shortages and even
total blackouts represent a real and tangible challenge
for supply chain resilience (Emenike and Falcone 2020;
Busby et al. 2021; Ivanov 2022a).
Third, the role of dynamic approaches to (re)-
planning and (re)-scheduling will increase. The rigid
paradigms of stable long-term planning are difficult to
implement under chaotic conditions. As such, an increas-
ing role will be played by approaches utilising situa-
tional reaction paradigms for agile and flexible planning,
and scheduling and dynamic assignment of orders (Dol-
gui and Proth 2010) to ensure reconfigurability at the
network and plant levels (Dolgui, Ivanov, and Sokolov
2020b; Yelles-Chaouche et al. 2021).
 INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF PRODUCTION RESEARCH 7145

Table 1. Examples of topics in supply chain and operations design, planning and control related to resource shortages.
Resources

Decision-making levels Labour Material Capital Energy

Strategic Network and process design
with consideration of
workforce constraints
Tactical Planning under workforce
infection dynamics
Operational Scheduling under workforce
constraints
Resilient supply chain design
Production, supply and
inventory planning with
disruption considerations
Scheduling under material
disruptions
Supply chain finance
Planning under capital-
constrained suppliers
Scheduling under capital
constraints
Sustainable supply chain
design
Resilient and sustainable
planning of supply chains
and operations with
considerations of energy
constraints
Scheduling under energy
constraints

Table 2. Examples of the implications of the shortage economy on supply chain and operations management.
Decision-making level Implications
Design Network design and supplier selection with considerations of hedging instruments against energy, labour, capital, information,
and material shortages as well as hyper-inflation
Global ripple-effect resistant network designs
Process design with considerations of hedging instruments against energy, labour, capital, information, and material shortages
Planning Reconsideration of ‘assemble-to-order’ and ‘make-to-order’ strategies towards bottom-up planning when supply leads demand.
Supplementing statistical approaches to demand-forecasting and sales and operations planning by consideration of the
unpredictable behaviour of customers and suppliers as a reaction to resource shortages and inflation.
Production planning with strong fluctuations in energy and workforce
Control Manufacturing control using situational, dynamic re-scheduling approaches
Consideration of container shortages in routing decisions

From a practical point of view, supply chain and oper-
ations managers are advised to adapt to the shortage
economy which could become the new normal in the
long term. (Table 3).
While disruptions have been considered as excep-
tional events in the pre-pandemic world, they are con-
tinuously present at the time of the shortage economy
(Ivanov and Dolgui 2021a). As such, there are impli-
cations for all managerial functions across the supply
chain: in supply, demand, and production management
as shown Table 3. At the levels of supply and production
management, a balance of production strategies is needed
with the resilience level of the sourcing strategy subject
to available materials. For example, the semiconductor
shortage and the COVID-19 pandemic forced car man-
ufacturers to concentrate on the assemble-to-order strat-
egy in a very selective way, prioritising the most profitable
models. In the worst case, it would be necessary to switch
completely to the ‘make-to-stock’ strategy, assembling
cars from the components available, and not following
any customer orders. To avoid such settings stress-testing
of the supply chain for critical and rare materials, stress-
testing of the supply chain for future increased prices,
supply and transportation capacity availability, and sup-
plier, material, and transportation diversification can be
recommended. On the other hand, production-supply
strategies strongly depend on demand management. In
this regard, and in the setting of the shortage economy,
we recommend reconsidering product variety to benefit
from economies of scale and standardisation, evaluat-
ing replacement / product substitution risks, planning for
unpredictable customer behaviour (e.g. panic buying),
considering hyper-inflation risks in forecasting and plan-
ning, and developing approaches for production plan-
ning under strong fluctuations in energy and workforce.
4. Future research directions
The shortage economy brings a novel and specific con-
text into supply chains and operations management
(Figure 1).
The existing body of literature provides useful meth-
ods and models for supply chain design and planning
under some constrained resources (e.g. energy con-
straint, workforce capacity constraint, and capital con-
straint) and some supply or logistics disruptions. In the
case of constrained resources, their limits (even being
constrained) are presumed to be known and sufficient
to satisfy demand with some minor adaptation. The dis-
ruptions are mostly considered as some time-limited
unavailability of resources with the possibility of more
or less quick recovery of demand fulfilment and opera-
tions efficiency. On the other hand, the shortage econ-
omy is characterised by long-term scarcity, when supply
frequently determines demand. Moreover, supply and
demand dynamics can be unpredictable, driven by antic-
ipation of shortages and risks of hyper-inflation.
7146 D. IVANOV AND A. DOLGUI

Table 3. Managerial implications of shortage economy.

Managerial function
Supply management
Demand management
Production management
Implications
Stress-test the supply chain for critical and rare materials
Stress-test the supply chain for future price rises, the supply and transportation capacity availability
Adopt supplier, material, and transportation diversification
Reconsider product variety to utilise economies of scale and standardisation
Evaluate replacement / product substitution risks
Plan for unpredictable customer behaviour
Consider inflation in forecasting and planning
Production planning with strong fluctuations in energy and workforce
Reconsider ‘assemble-to-order’ strategy for prioritising most profitable and resilient products
Consider replacement of ‘assemble-to-order’ by ‘make-to-stock’
Develop repurposing strategies
Develop a resilient portfolio of outsourcing and re-shoring
Stress-test the facilities and logistics against energy blackouts and workforce shortages
Utilise new digital technologies (e.g. additive manufacturing) to increase resilience

Table 4. Examples of shortage economy-related research areas.

System level Shortage economy related research areas
Ecosystem Supply chain and ecosystem viability analysis
Supply chain design with consideration of
alternative energy sources at facilities and
transportation routes
Supply chain design and planning under
inflation and shortage of resources
Network Bottom-up planning when supply leads
demand
Global ripple effect analysis and mitigation
Forecasting and planning under unpredictable
customer and supplier behaviours
Reconfigurable supply chain
Safety stock planning under extreme
disruptions in demand and lead time (e.g.
massive quarantines or long-term natural
disasters)
Contracting under extremal surges in demand
and lead-time and long-term shortage risks
Production planning with strong fluctuations
in energy and workforce
Plant Situational re-planning and dynamic
re-scheduling
Logistics re-routing under container shortage
and inflation
Shortage economy related resilience principles
Intertwining of different supply chains
(e.g. industrial and healthcare
supply chains);
Supply chain as a service / Cloud supply
chain
Prioritising industry sectors and
demand satisfaction equity
Structural variety (e.g. multi-sourcing,
multi-routes, etc.)
Reconfigurable systems with multi-
functional machines to enable
re-purposing and quick replacement
of defective workstations
Some recent indicative studies
(Ivanov and Dolgui 2020; Feizabadi,
Gligor, and Choi 2021; Wang and Yao
2021; Ivanov, Dolgui, and Sokolov
2022; Chopra, Sodhi, and Lücker
2021; Ivanov and Dolgui 2021)
(Dolgui, Sgarbossa, and Simonetto
2021; Sawik 2022; Brusset, Jebali,
and La Torre 2022; Shen et al. 2021;
Xu, Fang, and Govindan 2022; Zhi,
Wang, and Xu 2022)
(Battaïa et al. 2020; Sgarbossa et al.
2020; Katiraee et al. 2021; Kahr 2022)

All these distinctive specifics lead to some new
research topics related to ecosystems, network and plant
levels and concerned with organisational, management
and technology perspectives which can motivate several
shortage economy-related research areas (Table 4).
The principal differences between widely studied areas
of design, planning and control under uncertainties and
constraint resources (e.g. workforce uncertainty, avail-
ability of equipment, demand uncertainty, and lead time
uncertainty) and the shortage economy are as follows.
First, is the time scale considered (e.g. long-term per-
spective of the shortage economy vs short-term per-
spective of scheduling with constrained resources). Sec-
ond, is the scope of resource deficits (e.g. radical decrease
in resource availability leading to unsatisfied demand
and product deficits long term in the shortage econ-
omy vs some time-limited product unavailability due to
lead-time uncertainty). The third difference is the scope
of systems concerned with the shortages (e.g. ecosys-
tem and network level in the shortage economy vs
plant level in case of temporal workforce unavailabil-
ity). For example, a fire at an assembly plant repre-
sents an instantaneous disruption (i.e. the micro per-
spective), and can be coped with by recovery strategies
and the firm’s resilience (Hosseini, Ivanov, and Dol-
gui 2019). Multi-resource shortage is an example for
a long-lasting, super disruption or supply chain crisis
(i.e. the meso perspective). The meso disruptions require
adaptation and supply chain survivability (Queiroz et al.
2020). Such crises do not always allow us to bounce
back. Frequently, the only way to survive is to adapt
(Ruel et al. 2021). At the ecosystem level, future research
areas in the shortage economy context can be related
to viability and viable supply chain models to exam-
ine impacts of super-disruptions on supply chains and
intertwined supply networks (Ivanov and Dolgui 2020;

Figure 1. Supply chains and operations management in traditional and shortage economy settings.
Ivanov 2020b). The design and management of a net-
work which is not only efficient and resilient but also a
viable intertwined supply network (Ivanov and Dolgui
2020) capable of operations and demand fulfilment con-
tinuity despite severe super disruptions is imperative for
firms’ survivability and the provision of essential goods
and services to society during long-term crises. As such,
a viable supply chain model (Ivanov 2020b) and reconfig-
urable supply chains (Dolgui, Ivanov, and Sokolov 2020b)
can be considered interesting research avenues to be
applied under conditions of shortage economy. The new
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF PRODUCTION RESEARCH 7147
research context of resource prioritisation across differ-
ent industry sectors (e.g. in case of energy deficits) and
equity in demand satisfaction (e.g. food supply chains)
can arise in the shortage economy which gives a new
slant on topics of public-private partnerships and global
ripple effects. Moreover, the new research direction to
ensure survivability at the ecosystem level can be related
to the supply-chain-as-a-service business model when
large parts, or even the whole supply chain can be out-
sourced to a third-party. The supply-chain-as-a-service
model is closely linked to the digital supply chain, e.g.
7148 D. IVANOV AND A. DOLGUI
Amazon-FBA (fulfilment-by-Amazon)-Business. Ivanov,
Dolgui, and Sokolov (2022) generalised the supply chain-
as-a-service business models under the Cloud Supply
Chain notion.
At the network level, the fundamental resilience prin-
ciple is designing and managing the structural vari-
ety (Brintrup et al. 2022; Ivanov 2019; Ivanov 2020a).
Bottom-up planning, when supply leads demand (i.e. a
transition from demand-driven material requirements
planning to available materials-driven sales planning),
forecasting and planning under unpredictable behaviour
by customers and suppliers (e.g. panic buying), reconfig-
urable supply chains, contracting under extremal surges
in demand and lead-time and long-term shortage risks,
safety stock planning under extremal disruptions in
demand and lead-time (e.g. massive quarantines or long-
term natural disasters), and production planning with
strong fluctuations in energy and workforce belong to
interesting future research directions where substantial
contributions can be obtained.
At the plant level, the reconfigurability of processes and
product is of central importance (Ivanov 2020c, 2022b).
Reconfigurable systems with multi-functional machines
can help enable re-purposing and quick replacement
of defective workstations. Situational re-planning and
dynamic re-scheduling, along with logistics re-routing
under container shortage and inflation, are examples
of emerging research topics in this area. For example,
scheduling under conditions of massive quarantines with
simultaneous preservation of the system’s viability is of
utmost importance both for industry and services.
To address the challenges imposed by the shortage
economy in terms of complexity, uncertainty, observ-
ability, stability, and controllability, operations manage-
ment researchers might be interested in enriching their
methodical equipment and exploring theories such as
chaos theory, the theory of structural dynamics control,
and the extreme value theory in the context of opera-
tional problems with external uncertainty and disrup-
tions in demand, lead time, and workforce.
5. Conclusion
In this paper, we elaborated on the implications of the
shortage economy on supply chain and operations man-
agement, motivated by the context of hedging the supply
chains against energy blackouts, semiconductor and con-
tainer shortages, workforce deficits, and growing infla-
tion. Driven by acute, pandemic-induced reasons and
long-term trends, the shortage economy can become the
new normal on a global scale. Energy, workforce, and
materials become scarcer and the risks of hyper-inflation
come as new challenges. Supply chains are adapting to
cope with component shortages (e.g. semiconductors),
limited and unpredictable energy availability, and work-
force deficits along with rapidly increasing prices.
In this conceptual paper, we presented some major
literature streams on supply chain and operations man-
agement which deal with resource shortages. Using a
classification into supply, demand and production activi-
ties, we structured the possible managerial implications
of scarce resources and inflation on supply chains. We
also generalised some new research topics which may
appear in the setting of shortage economy. For example,
the following topics can be proposed as novel and under-
explored context deserving further research: replacement
of top-down planning when demand leads supply by
bottom-up planning when supply leads demand; fore-
casting and planning under unpredictable customer and
supplier behaviours; supply chain design with consider-
ation of alternative energy sources at facilities and trans-
portation routes; production planning with severe fluctu-
ations in energy and workforce and production and logis-
tics planning and scheduling under container shortage
and inflation.
Business implications are also multiple, and include a
complex of measures to be implemented in adapting sup-
ply chains and operations to the shortage economy, e.g.
stress-testing the supply chain for critical and rare mate-
rials; future price increases, supply and transportation
capacity availability can be listed. In addition, evaluat-
ing replacement / product substitution risks, planning
for surges in demand and supply, and consideration of
inflation in forecasting and planning models should be
considered. Moreover, at the production level, companies
need to develop re-purposing strategies, a resilient port-
folio of outsourcing and reshoring/nearshoring decision,
and stress-test the facilities and logistics against energy
blackouts and workforce shortages. Digital technologies
can play an important role specifically in improving effi-
ciency and resilience under resource shortage, e.g. by
adding end-to-end visibility, reducing lead-times and
material needs through additive manufacturing, and flex-
ibly reacting to fluctuation by reconfiguration of systems
and resources using Industry 4.0. Viable supply chain
models and reconfigurable supply chain frameworks can
be considered useful instruments in research on shortage
economy-related problems.
Finally, we stress that the new context of the short-
age economy is very challenging, but also very interesting
and will certainly motivate development of new man-
agement solutions and research methods. Our discussion
does not pretend to uncover all the possible implica-
tions and research topics related to the shortage economy
since this is a new phenomenon in the current stage of
economic development and only some suggestions are

provided in this paper. However, we believe that the term
‘shortage economy’ can be considered as an overarching
perspective for a growing body of literature on supply
chain and operations management with labour, material,
energy and capital shortages.
We hope that this conceptual paper will be useful
for both senior and junior researchers, as well as practi-
tioners, to systemise the potential impacts of the short-
age economy on supply chains and operations, and to
navigate adaptation and recovery processes in a struc-
tured way. Some other topics such as labour shortage
and the role of a developing country, adoption of digi-
tal technology to manage the workforce, hyper-inflation
and supply chain contracting, and the circular economy
remained outside our considerations and represent inter-
esting research avenues where substantial contributions
can be expected in the future.
Acknowledgement
The authors thank the two anonymous reviewers whose com-
ments helped us to improve the manuscript immensely.
Disclosure statement
No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).
Data availability statement
Data supporting the findings of this study are available on a
reasonable request from the authors.
Notes on Contributors
Dmitry Ivanov is a professor of sup-
ply chain and operations management
at Berlin School of Economics and Law
(HWR Berlin). His publication list includes
around 380 publications, including over
120 papers in international academic jour-
nals and leading textbooks Global Supply
Chain and Operations Management and
Introduction to Supply Chain Resilience. His main research
interests and results span the resilience and ripple effect in sup-
ply chains, risk analytics, and digital twins. He co-edits Interna-
tional Journal of Integrated Supply Management (IJISM) and is
an associate editor of the International Journal of Production
Research (IJPR) and OMEGA. He is Chairman of IFAC TC 5.2
‘Manufacturing Modelling for Management and Control’.
Alexandre Dolgui is an IISE Fellow, Dis-
tinguished Professor, and the Head of
Automation, Production and Computer
Sciences Department at the IMT Atlan-
tique, France. His research focuses on
manufacturing line design, production
planning and supply chain optimisation.
His main results are based on the exact
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF PRODUCTION RESEARCH 7149
mathematical programming methods and their intelligent cou-
pling with heuristics and metaheuristics algorithms. He is the
co-author of 5 books, the co-editor of 25 books or confer-
ence proceedings, the author of more than 280 refereed journal
papers, 4 prefaces of books, 31 editorials and 37 book chap-
ters as well as over 400 papers in conference proceedings. He is
the Editor-in-Chief of the International Journal of Production
Research (IJPR).
ORCID
Dmitry Ivanov http://orcid.org/0000-0003-4932-9627
Alexandre Dolgui http://orcid.org/0000-0003-0527-4716
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