PA Model-3 [ Swing trading

model ]

Here is the trader profile and basic outlook about the model

Overall view about the model :-

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 1. The underlying condition that sets up the setup is based on the stage. The
stage for this model is gonna be based on COT Hedging program

2. Now on the Daily chart we wanna see an obvious daily liquidity pools for price
to be drawn into or to be attacked

3. The entry pattern we would be using for this model is OTE

Before getting into the model you need to have a thorough knowledge about
following concepts ,

COT data

LQ pools

IPDA Data ranges

OTE

Now , This model is all about capitalising the monthly candle move & we are
working inside that range for setups

The DOL for this model is in the form of LQ pools , EQH / EQL on the daily chart

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 Now , This is the graphic depiction of the entire model

Bullish setup Bearish setup

Step by step process for this model ,

1. Now first we need to understand what's commercials doing now , are they
focussed on selling / buying ?

For that , We would be looking at the COT data of the of commercials for last
12 months & mark the highest high & lowest low of they're net position , then
dividing that range into half

Now if the current reading / net position of commercials is above that half
range we would be focussing on the bullish setups & vice versa

2. Once we found out are they focussed on buying / selling ? We would be

looking at the daily chart of respective market
Look for obvious DOL in the form of liquidity pools & EQH / EQL to the
direction of our bias which is found from the COT data

3. Now Look at the IPDA data ranges on the beginning of the recent month with
20,40,60 lookback to understand the premium , discount ranges and PDA’s to

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 incorporate that into our entry

4. Either you can use the respective PDA’s you found from the IPDA data ranges /
OTE levels for an entry

Entries would be taken on a 4hr chart & you can use the 1 hr chart to trim
your stop loss for better risk reward

5. Profit taking should be done at the logical levels such as swing highs & lows
with confluence of the Fib levels of 1SD , 2D , 3SD…

Later he was discussing an example of this model which is basically the same
things he mentioned above

Here you can see the Canadian dollar being in bearish territory from the October
which is bullish for the USDCAD

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 As the COT Data is indicating commercials are net short on Canadian dollar which
is bullish for the USDCAD we are looking for the buy setups here

Clean EQH as DOL

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 Weekly OB mitigation on a weekly tf

Weekly OB mitigation on a daily tf

He didn't used all tools mentioned on the model for this example so doesn't feels
like its a great example video

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 Our focus on this model is to capture 100-300 pips per trade with this model

There's essentially 5 steps to every trading plan ,

1. Preparation - It's usually when patience is being applied , & what are you
basically waiting for, what are you doing with your time ?

2. Opportunity discovery - So once you see something that is developing

okay , the opportunity has been discovered because of your experience of
studying price delivery.

3. Trade planning - Once you understand the framework that you're looking
at , you are going to trade your plan.

4. Trade execution - Once you have your opportunity & you've prepared &
you've planned the trade framework, then you want to execute on the
trade.

5. Trade management - Where do I put my stop & when should I take profits ?

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 Now you don't have to thoroughly follow these trading plan , you can alter this for
yourself with this 5 stages for trading plan but don't make it complicated , make it
short & simple.

1- Preparation :-

We are anticipating a weekly profile for the coming week to unfold by

analysing the economic calendar & current market structure

Now remember this PA model is specifically aimed at trading in the direction of a

monthly range. So don't let this fool you here. You still have to flesh out that
monthly range with 4 weekly candles. So we're still keeping that in the forefront of
our mind

Using IPDA Data ranges to find out the dealing range we are gonna work for
the model

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 If we don't see any IPDA data ranges that work for our top down analysis in the 20
day lookback we go to the 40 day look back & if we don't see anything that's
notable then we'll look back 60 trading days. 60 trading days is the maximum you
look for
Defining the highest high & lowest low of the lookback period that's going to be
the range you work within for your entries & targets

Looking for the next DOL inside the dealing range we are working at

2 - Opportunity discovery :-

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 You need to look for a strong seasonal tendency of the respective market your
gonna trade

Once you find a market with strong seasonal tendency look for the COT data
to support the seasonal tendency [ How to read the COT for this respective
model is discussed on 1st episode of this model ]

We would be looking at a Daily BMS to confirm our bias

Once price gives us a BMS in a daily Tf we would be looking at the 20,40,60

day IPDA Data range lookback to find out the probable DOL
If you can get these relative equal highs/lows within 40 or 20, the probabilities
of it getting there quick is higher than if it is on a 60 day look back.
Most of our targets should be inside the 20,40 day IPDA lookback , getting into
the 60 day lookback targets is the best case scenario

Now once you find out the probable DOL you would be looking at the PDA’s
inside the 20 , 40 , 60 days lookback for framing an entry

3 - Trade planning :-

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 Here the fibs are pulled on the 15 min swing points
For the STDV projection as mentioned on the previous episode you can choose ,

Asian range

CBDR

Flout
choose one as per your convenience

Trade executions :-

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 Trade management :-

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 Stop loss management :-

Money management :-

Money management example :-

Drawdown management :-

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 Practice…

Algorithmic theory of PA Model-3

So as like the Model 1 algorithmic theory lecture he wont be

providing the slides which explains the algorithmic theory of
models from now. We have to make notes from his lectures
which is kind of tough as he talks too much in an unstructured
manner. Also unlike the algorithmic theory of the 1st model he
ended up explaining the example than giving a clear cut lecture
on algo

Example :-

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 So as you an see the commercials are net short on that particular time where
cursor is placed & we are expecting the lower prices on GBPUSD here

He was targeting that EQL to be the DOL

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 As you can see price eventually traded into that level

Now personally I'm not satisfied with the explanation he given here lot of missing
parts so better load up your chart and backtest yourself

Ned more ICT Notion notes ? Its here 👇

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Trader | ICT Notes
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