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Spatial Analysis of Poverty Incidence and Road Networks in Eastern Visayas

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Philippine Journal of Science
152 (4): 1267-1283, August 2023
ISSN 0031 - 7683
Date Received: 02 Dec 2022

Spatial Analysis of Poverty Incidence and Road Networks

in Eastern Visayas Region, Philippines

Hernan G. Pantolla1* and Nelda Atibagos-Nacion2

1MathematicsUnit, Kolehiyo ng Lungsod ng Dasmariñas,

City of Dasmariñas 4114 Cavite, Philippines
2Mathematics and Statistics Department, De La Salle University Dasmariñas,
City of Dasmariñas 4114 Cavite, Philippines

Poverty is a prevailing challenge in the Philippines. Through the small area estimation (SAE)
of the Philippine Statistics Authority, the poor cities and municipalities with poor households
were identified. Some locations are also vulnerable to natural calamities and have limited
resources. The 2018 SAE shows that the region of Eastern Visayas is one of the poorest in
the country. Moreover, the region is vulnerable to natural hazards, particularly typhoons.
The regional road network is also less connected for the poorer municipalities. Hence, slow
economic growth is a concerted outcome. To provide an evidence-based framework on potentially
optimized resource allocation of say, government institutions and humanitarian organizations
in countering these poverty concerns exacerbated by natural calamities, this paper used the
geographical information system (GIS) for easier visualization and interpretability. Spatial
analyses were also applied to [1] determine if clusters of poverty exist in the region across
different periods and [2] if hot spots of poverty incidence exist in the latest SAE. The findings
reveal that poverty incidence for all four previous periods of SAE has significant non-random
clusters. In addition, poverty hot spots, at varying confidence levels, were statistically identified.
These hot spots are also vulnerable to frequent typhoons and have limited access to national
roads. Additionally, the bootstrap regression shows that economic growth could be boosted
by expanding road networks as an indicator of decreased poverty incidence. This study, thus,
further emphasizes the importance of data-driven decision-making, particularly in efforts to
counter poverty including some of its aggravating external factors such as natural calamities.
The application of empirical methods in formulating and improving policies, especially those
related to infrastructure investments and expansions, is also recommended, given the limited
resources. It also highlights how road networks in the region could be instrumental in promoting
economic progress, particularly in less accessible areas.

Keywords: Eastern Visayas, geographical information system, poverty incidence, road networks,
spatial analysis

*Corresponding author: hgpantolla@up.edu.ph

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Philippine Journal of Science
Vol. 152 No. 4, August 2023
INTRODUCTION
Poverty incidence is defined by the Philippine Statistics
Authority (PSA) as the proportion of individuals/families
against the total number of individuals/families having an
earning or spending capacity below a specified poverty
threshold (PSA 1997). On the other hand, the poverty
threshold is the minimum amount that individuals/families
necessitate to meet their basic food and non-food needs
(PSA 2017a). The poverty threshold for the first semester
of 2018 is PHP 10,481.00 (USD 215 as of March 2021)
for basic food and non-food requirements (PSA 2019).
The United Nations (UN), through its Sustainable
Development Goals (SDG), aims to eradicate extreme
poverty of all people by 2030. This includes changing the
economic status of the proportion of the population living
under the poverty threshold that currently stands at USD
1.25, be it by sex, employment, age, and geographical
location. The SDG also targets that by 2030, at least
half of both sexes and people of all ages have crossed
the national definitions in all its facets. Moreover, equal
access to economic and natural resources and essential
services are targeted too (UN n/d).
In the Philippines, several development projects have been
implemented addressing the SDG targets, specifically
poverty. In fact, according to World Bank (WB 2018),
the poverty rate in the Philippines declined from 26.6%
in 2006 to 21.6% in 2015. This decline was due to factors
like the expansion of jobs outside agriculture. However,
despite the decrease, the poverty rate is still alarming.
This high poverty rate, among other factors, made the
Philippines categorized as a developing country. This
could be associated with poverty alleviation programs that
could not target specific municipalities with high poverty
rates. Thus, mapping poverty can target these localities
specifically, and the poverty alleviation programs can be
modified based on the needs of the targeted area.
The Philippines is an archipelagic state divided into
three major groups of islands – namely, Luzon, Visayas,
and Mindanao. Of these three groups of islands, Visayas
is both the minor contributor to the national economy
and the slowest growth economy-wise, according
to Visayas Spatial Development Framework 2015–
2045 (VSDF) published by the National Economic
Development Authority–Region VIII (NEDA-VIII
2015). Significant portions of its economy come from
services, manufacturing, trade, and agriculture. The
Visayas comprises three regions: Eastern Visayas, Central
Visayas, and Western Visayas. The VSDF states that the
regions generally exceeded the national poverty average of
19.7% in 2012 (NEDA-VIII 2015). Prevalent malnutrition
increased Human Immunodeficiency Virus and Acquired
Immune Deficiency Syndrome cases, decreased
agricultural and fishery harvests and underdevelopment
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Pantolla and Atibagos-Nacion: Spatial Analysis
of Poverty Incidence and Road Networks
of tourism are among the top hindrances in the Visayas
area well. Damages to the environment stemming from
human activities are rampant, too. Of particular interest
is Eastern Visayas, out of the three regions, as the most
at risk of natural calamities – specifically typhoons – as
seen in Appendix I (NEDA-VIII 2015).
Eastern Visayas region comprises Northern Samar,
Western Samar (also known as Samar), Eastern Samar,
Biliran, Southern Leyte, and Northern Leyte (typically
addressed as Leyte). In 2012, the regional estimate of its
poverty incidence was 37.2%. Additionally, this region in
the Philippines was the most critically damaged by Super
Typhoon Yolanda (known internationally as Haiyan) in
2013 (NEDA-VIII 2015).
Despite the natural and non-natural challenges, the region
is being prepared to achieve strong economic growth that is
sustainable and geared at reducing inequality and poverty
in all forms. NEDA-VIII intends to improve the Eastern
Visayas region through its National Spatial Strategy (NSS)
specified in the Eastern Visayas Regional Development
Plan 2017–2022 (EV-RDP) of the agency (NEDA-VIII
2017). To objectively direct the necessary actions to the
right places, the NSS contains the sub-strategy tenets of
concentration, connection, and vulnerability reduction
assessment at the spatial similarities of resources,
capabilities, and needs (NEDA-VIII 2017).
Poverty in the region remains a crucial deterrent amid
significant declines in incidence per province within
the population and families, according to the latest PSA
estimates in 2015 (NEDA-VIII 2017). The rebuilding
efforts after Yolanda caused such improvements.
Additionally, the PSA estimates of poverty incidence in
the provinces of the region in 2012 showed declines except
for Northern Samar, which, contrarily, has its poverty
incidence further impaired. Poverty in the population of
Samar Island provinces – comprised of Northern Samar,
Eastern Samar, and Western Samar – remains widespread,
although based on frequencies, Leyte consistently has
the highest individual counts (NEDA-VIII 2017). In a
similar lens, populations seen as poor or working poor
have insufficient education and work in the informal
sector. Many reside in rural areas with limited income
opportunities (Sta. Romana 2017).
Through the VSDF, the national government has outlined
some measures to address the major economic growth
issues, mainly poverty-related. According to the VSDF,
precise base maps for more strategic infrastructure
positioning and capital expenditures, as well as projections
on the potential effects of developmental interventions
(and natural calamities), are needed to plan the physical
and land use of the region. Enabling mechanisms that allow
for information sharing between local management and
Philippine Journal of Science
Vol. 152 No. 4, August 2023
regional stakeholders is further necessitated (NEDA VIII
2015). The use of poverty maps could be a contributory
starting point for these goals.
Like other countries, the poverty incidence in the
Philippines is presented using the small area estimation
(SAE) methods of the PSA. According to the WB, SAE
methods are statistical tools that could be used to generate
statistics for small areas (such as cities and municipalities)
with improved quality compared to those directly collected
through a sample survey (WB 2022). Poverty maps
derived from SAE are contemporary modernism that
shows approximations of levels of poverty incidence in
geographical units which are highly disaggregated (Bedi
et al. 2007). A poverty map represents poverty incidence
on a map that shows where poverty and inequality are
spatially distributed, too (WB 2022). Providing effective
communicative instruments, produced maps from SAE
consolidate easily visualizable detailed information of
poverty estimates for many towns and villages. The maps
further present a compressed volume of information that
preserves spatial correlations among geographical units,
which are impossible compared to tabulated data. Factors
that lead to poverty incidences in lower geographical
aggregates could be determined through poverty maps,
too (Bedi et al. 2007).
The main reason for creating poverty maps is to increase
the efficiency of spending on anti-poverty initiatives. With
limited resources, policies for regions with high poverty
incidence could be implemented more successfully.
Geographical patterns could also be used to develop
regionally for economically connected but disadvantaged
contiguous areas. In addition, poverty maps based on
SAE could [a] offer a potent way to raise awareness of
problems with state poverty, [b] display evidence-based
patterns of poverty that were previously assumed to be
accurate but are eventually shown to be debatable, [c]
reach a wider audience by being easily understood, and
[d] create a larger forum for discussions about poverty,
its causes, and implications for the development and/
or improvement of policy (Bedi et al. 2007). A tool
that can be used in analyzing such collected data is the
geographical information system (GIS).
A GIS is equally useful for data gathering and management.
It could turn layers of vital information into visualizations
like maps. More profound intuitions from data in a
specified location such as patterns and situations could
be drawn from a GIS, aiding decision-makers in coming
up with smarter resolutions (ESRI n/d). With the advent
of SAE, GIS has become an indispensable tool for
integrating data and analyzing locations on different
unit levels. For instance, by superimposing access
road networks and a poverty map of Sri Lanka, it was
determined that distance from markets or cities nearby,
Pantolla and Atibagos-Nacion: Spatial Analysis
of Poverty Incidence and Road Networks
poverty incidence in the state is strongly associated with
geographical inaccessibility. While associating visually
is not irrefutable proof of causality through GIS, it still
provides information in determining correlations that
may be used for deeper investigation. Moreover, temporal
variations in poverty incidences to specific levels could be
observed whenever poverty maps from different periods
become available (Bedi et al. 2007). Aside from GIS,
exploratory spatial data analysis investigates an observed
distribution in a specific location. It, therefore, attempts
to conclude the processes that lead to this distribution
(Unwin 1996).
One way to improve the quality of life of those living
in the rural areas and eventually be competent for
devolution of central decision-making from the national
government that may cause delays in quicker response to
the community needs is to be connected to road networks
(Muneer and Garcia 2017). The economic development
of countries depends on their road networks. To ensure
quality connections between the various regions of
geographical territory, it is vital to plan for the expansion
and maintenance of these networks in a systematic and
ongoing manner (Muneer and Garcia 2017). Road networks
facilitate the global distribution of goods and services and
connect people to places of employment, schools, and other
locations. The infrastructure of roads enhances the efficacy
and productivity of nations and raises the level of living
for the populace, making life easier. In a study conducted
locally by Olsson (2008), an isolated fishing community
was characterized by inadequate transport conditions and
limited access to larger markets. It was determined that
the benefits of repairing the road were substantial and
benefited most fishermen and their families. In addition to
the significant direct effects of road improvement, several
supplementary factors led to substantial indirect effects.
These included an abundance of harvested resources in the
society, the possibility of technological advancements that
increased output and productivity, the availability of capital
to sustain this enhanced output, and increased production
in the market region as the market grew and prices fell
(Olsson 2008).
The existing poverty maps include estimates of SAE
of poverty incidence released by the PSA, as seen in
Appendix II (PSA 2021). Another one is integrated and
artificial intelligence-based satellite imagery by the Asian
Development Bank (ADB). However, the alternative
data resources used by the ADB so far have potential
concerns about bias. They are not intended to substitute
conventional methods of national statistics offices (NSOs)
in estimating poverty incidence (ADB 2020). The method
used by the ADB, though, is granularly aggregated
and could give prospective results for validations of
estimates of NSOs (ADB 2020). Another poverty map
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Philippine Journal of Science
Vol. 152 No. 4, August 2023
was developed by ADB in 2021 using satellite imagery
and machine learning algorithms integrated into the data
of the SAE of the PSA (ADB 2021). While the study is
not intended to replace systems in collecting traditional
poverty indicators data, it encourages exploring alternative
methods for targeted populations (ADB 2021). The
visualization of more precise granular geographical
disaggregation of poor populations, among other goals,
is the major one. However, empirical evidence on how
potentially clustered the impoverished populations on a
smaller geographical level could provide new ways for
planning and implementing projects to such locations,
given the limited resources with better efficiency and
greater populations reached.
Therefore, based on the SAE of the PSA, the purpose of this
study is to generate maps indicating where the granularity
of poverty incidence at the cities and municipalities level
is clustered in Eastern Visayas if existent. Hot spots (or
cold spots) of poverty incidence will also be identified
should the clustering of poverty incidence is statistically
proven. In addition, it aims to possibly demonstrate if the
connectedness of the road networks in the region that could
be a key contributor to potential economic growth in the
region. This paper may also contribute to the planning and
actions of the economic managers of the region and local
government units (LGUs). The primary objective is to
provide empirically-based insights about the patterns that
can serve as a basis for further investigations, planning,
and/or actions by the authorities.
MATERIALS AND METHODS
Data
The coordinates of the six provinces consisting of Eastern
Visayas are at 12.2446° N, 125.0388 °E. Otherwise known
as Region VIII, the total number of component cities and
municipalities of the region is seven and 136, respectively.
For easier understanding, the term areas refer to the cities
and municipalities in the selected study setting. According
to the Department of Agriculture–Region 08 (DA-R08),
the region’s land area is 2,156,285 hectares (DA-R08
2012). On the other hand, the total population based on
the 2015 census is 4,440,150 (PSA 2016). Figure 1 shows
the location of the selected study setting, whereas Figure
2 shows the map of the geographical boundaries of the
cities and municipalities by province with labels.
The outputs of the SAE of poverty incidences for 2009,
2012, 2015, and 2018 were downloaded from the website
of PSA. Each city and municipality has recorded data
for all the temporal periods. On the other hand, the
shapefiles to generate all the GIS needed were extracted
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Pantolla and Atibagos-Nacion: Spatial Analysis
of Poverty Incidence and Road Networks
from the United Nations Office for the Coordination of
Humanitarian Affairs website (UNOCHA n/d), whereas
the mapping and spatial data analyses were done in
ArcGIS Pro 3.0.1.
Indicators of Spatial Autocorrelation
Testing whether significant clusters exist via spatial data
analysis starts with choosing and assigning contiguity-
based spatial weights. The queen contiguity criterion was
selected since it addresses the potential inaccuracies in
the coordinates pairs that cover an area, also known as
polygons in the context of GIS (Anselin 2020a). The queen
weighting procedure is selected for the association between
centroids of the areas. Herein, a matrix H̲ is set up, which is
a binary weight matrix. This matrix establishes a threshold
of distances between the centroids of the areas. Some areas
in Eastern Visayas may be close to each other but not
geographically contiguous, whereas some municipalities
are entirely neighborless. The function is given by Equation
1, which sums up the contiguity between the cities and
municipalities, where ��,� is the distance between the
centroids of areas 𝑎 and 𝑏, and 𝜑 is the minimum distance
for each area having one neighbor or more.
0, if χ i , j > ϕ
ha ,b =  . (1)
 1, if χ i , j ≤ ϕ
The ℎ�,� is an indicator of contiguity. If two areas are
contiguous, then ℎ�,� is equal to 1. Otherwise, ℎ�,� is equal
to 0 (Pangilinan et al. 2017).
As the ℎ�,�’s guarantees the spatial data analysis of poverty
incidence in Eastern Visayas, a global indicator of spatial
autocorrelation can already be applied to determine if
clustering exists in the region. In particular, the widely
used Global Moran’s I was used to identify whether the
region's clustering is a random occurrence (ESRI 2021).
The null hypothesis for this statistic is that the potential
clustering results from a random occurrence. In contrast,
the alternative hypothesis is that the clustering that may
have occurred is non-random. The Global Moran’s I also
possess a unique characteristic that does not conform to the
classical correlation coefficient. It measures the similarity
among neighboring areas. The Global Moran’s I is given by:
 G G 
 ∑∑ hi , j ( Γ a − Γ )( Γb − Γ ) 
1
I = 2 =a 1 =b 1 , (2)
s  g g

 =
∑∑
a 1=b 1
ha ,b 
∑ ∑
G
where=
Γ a =1
Γ a G and=
s2
G
(Γ a − Γ ) 2 G .
a =1
In Equation 2, 𝐺 represents the total number of areas
composed of cities and municipalities in Eastern Visayas.
Therefore, 𝐺 = 143. Furthermore, the island municipalities
are initially incorporated. The statistic � represents the
Philippine Journal of Science Pantolla and Atibagos-Nacion: Spatial Analysis
Vol. 152 No. 4, August 2023 of Poverty Incidence and Road Networks

Figure 1. Map of Eastern Visayas Region and its location in the Philippines.

poverty incidences of areas � or 𝑏, whereas Γ̅ and 𝑠²,
respectively, denote the mean and variance of all the
poverty incidences in the whole region.
The local indicator of spatial autocorrelation (LISA), on
the other hand, was used to determine possible clusters.
The standardized Local Moran’s I (Waller and Gotway
2004) was the specifically applied statistic. This indicator,
denoted by 𝐼�,�, with 𝑠 as the standard deviation in all the
poverty incidence of the region, is given by:
G  Γ − Γ 
I a,z = (Γ a − Γ )  ∑ ha ,b  b  s .
 b =1  s 
Ghodousi et al. (2020), the 𝐺�* statistic is a method that
measures how highly or lowly concentrated a feature is
in each location, hence identifying the area as a hot spot
or a cold spot. To simplify, and in the context of this
study, a high incidence of poverty suggests a hot spot,
whereas a low incidence of poverty indicates a cold spot.
In addition, a hot spot is recognized when the observed
values exceed the expected values, whereas a cold spot
is discovered when the observed values fall short of the
expected values (Gorr et al. 2020). The statistic based
on the work of Getis and Ord (1995), which is already a
standardized value, is given in Equation 3:
G G

Permutations of 9,999 times were done to generate more ∑h

a ,b i χ − p∑ h
a ,b
G =
=
* b 1= b 1 . (3)
robust results about the clusters (Anselin 2020b). i 2
G
   G

 G∑ h  −  ∑ h 
2
a ,b a ,b
=
S 
b 1=  b 1 
G −1
p
Hot Spot and Cold Spot Analysis
This investigation will also include optimized hot spot
analysis. In particular, the Getis-Ord 𝐺�* Analysis (Getis The poverty incidence �� in a city or municipality 𝑏 with
and Ord 1995) will be implemented. According to its attached spatial weight is given by ℎ�,� between 𝑎 and

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Philippine Journal of Science Pantolla and Atibagos-Nacion: Spatial Analysis
Vol. 152 No. 4, August 2023 of Poverty Incidence and Road Networks

Figure 2. Cities and municipalities of Eastern Visayas Region by province.

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Philippine Journal of Science Pantolla and Atibagos-Nacion: Spatial Analysis
Vol. 152 No. 4, August 2023 of Poverty Incidence and Road Networks

𝑏, from 𝐺. The 𝑝
�, denoting the mean poverty incidence of 30.7% among families. Massive post-Yolanda repair and
reconstruction efforts were cited as the cause of the large
𝐺, is given by p = ∑ G χ b G , whereas the 𝑆 � represents decrease. The revitalization of the business sector also
b =1
contributed to the decline in the region's poor population
the standard deviation =
given by S p (∑ G
b =1 )
χ b2 G − p 2 . (NEDA-VIII 2017).
Figure 3 shows the box maps from left to right of the PSA's
2009, 2012, 2015, and 2018 poverty incidence estimates.
RESULTS AND DISCUSSION The maps are divided into quartiles and outliers. The
categorization of each quartile or as an outlier(s) depends
Poverty reduction is a significant challenge for the region. on the values of the SAE in each period.
Despite a considerable decline in 2015, the poverty rate
in the region is still 38.7% among the population and Most of the poor municipalities come from Samar Island
for all the periods. The cities and municipalities from

Figure 3. Box maps of Eastern Visayas Region poverty incidence for 2009, 2012, 2015, and 2018 (from
left to right).

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Philippine Journal of Science
Vol. 152 No. 4, August 2023
Biliran, Leyte, and Southern Leyte predominantly belong
to the median level of poverty incidence. Furthermore,
the municipality of Silvino Lobos in Northern Samar is
consistently among the poorest municipalities in all the
periods, the poorest in 2009 and 2012, and is categorized
as an upper outlier in those two periods. While the poverty
incidence of Silvino Lobos is down to (56.90%) in 2018, it is
still the only upper outlier from Northern Samar. It is joined
by the municipalities Maslog (73.4%), Jipapad (65.5%),
Arteche (58.7%), and General MacArthur (58.0%) from
Eastern Samar in that period. On the other hand, Tacloban
City has the least poverty incidence in the latest SAE
(5.83%). It is the only lower outlier in 2018, which comes
unsurprisingly since it is a highly urbanized city (HUC).
In 2016, Eastern Visayas had the country's fastest
economic growth, at 12.4% (PSA 2017b). Some natural
Figure 4. Results of Global Moran’s I analysis of poverty incidence in the Eastern Visayas Region for 2009, 2012, 2015, and 2018 (from
left to right).
1274
Pantolla and Atibagos-Nacion: Spatial Analysis
of Poverty Incidence and Road Networks
calamities, however, may have hampered the economic
activities in the region. After four years of recovery from
the effects of supertyphoon Yolanda, two big natural
disasters ravaged the Eastern Visayas Region in 2017.
The NEDA deems the magnitude 6.5 quake that struck
Leyte Island on 06 Jun 2017 and Tropical Storm Urduja
that destroyed Biliran province in mid-December as
severe setbacks in maintaining economic growth. The
earthquake wrecked the infrastructure of geothermal
power plants, resulting in a week of total darkness and
two weeks of rotating brownouts in six provinces and
adjacent islands. The earthquake may not have caused
great damage to people and property, but its aftershocks
fraught the economic operations of significant companies.
The manufacturing subsector accounts for 17% of the
gross regional product; hence, a power outage might have
a big effect on the economy. A NEDA official explained
Philippine Journal of Science
Vol. 152 No. 4, August 2023
further that climate change exacerbates the region’s
susceptibility to natural disasters. This is amplified by its
proximity to the Pacific Ocean and the Pacific Ring of
Fire (Meniano 2017).
Global Indicator of Spatial Autocorrelation
The Global Moran’s I Index for 2009, 2012, 2015,
and 2018 are 0.6585, 0.3263, 0.5645, and 0.6720 in
succession. The positive standardized values denoted by
the z-score and significant p-values at the 0.05 acceptance
level provide evidence that the clusters are, in some ways,
significantly clustered, and the occurrences of these
patterns are non-random. The graphical outputs for this
table are shown in Figure 4.
Table 1. Results of Global Moran’s I analysis.
Year
Global Moran’s
z-score p-value Clustering
I Index
2009 0.6585 17.182 < 0.0001 Non-random
2012 0.3263 8.6275 < 0.0001 Non-random
2015 0.4654 12.33 < 0.0001 Non-random
2018 0.672 17.604 < 0.0001 Non-random
Local Indicator Spatial Autocorrelation
Figure 5 depicts the LISA in 2009, 2012, 2015, and 2018.
The red areas have a high incidence of poverty and are
contiguous to at least one other area with a high incidence
of poverty, hence the term “high-high” clustering. The
“low-low,” “low-high,” and “high-low” areas all share
the same context. Since the purpose of this study is to
find clusters of places with an estimated high incidence
of poverty, only “high-high” and “low-high” areas were
given emphasis. Also shown are the smaller islands that
are separated from the mainland or larger island groupings
and, as a result, have spatial autocorrelations classified
as “not significant.” The neighborless municipalities are
Maripipi, Tagapul-an, Santo Nino, Capul, San Antonio,
Daram, Zumarraga, San Vicente, Talalora, and Biri.
Hot Spot and Cold Spots of Poverty Incidence
Figure 6 shows both the LISA Map on the left panel
with the hot spot and the cold spot analysis map on the
right panel for 2018. The hot spot and cold spot analysis
show that the identified hot spots of poverty incidence,
at varying confidence levels, are consistent with the
determined clusters of spatially autocorrelated poor
areas for 2018. This provides empirical evidence that the
determined areas in Eastern Samar and the eastern parts
of Northern Samar are both [a] poverty hot spots and [b]
poverty in the areas is not independent from each other.
Further, Appendix II shows that Samar Island is usually
Pantolla and Atibagos-Nacion: Spatial Analysis
of Poverty Incidence and Road Networks
hit by eight or nine typhoons annually on average. This
vulnerability to typhoons adds to the economic hurdles
that the populations in the eastern part of Samar Island,
especially the poor, frequently face.
Curiously, the municipalities of San Julian in Eastern
Samar and Paranas of Western Samar are determined to
be hot spots of poverty with only a 90% confidence level
but are not significantly clustered on “high-high” levels
in 2018. On the other hand, the municipalities of San
Miguel and Dagami in Northern Leyte have “high-low”
clustering but are considered cold spots with 95 and 99%
confidence levels, respectively. These situations may have
been caused by the poverty situation in the contiguous
areas surrounding them. Lastly, the autonomous City of
Tacloban, which also serves as the capital of Northern
Leyte, does not belong to any poverty clusters but is a
poverty cold spot nonetheless. This, unsurprisingly, could
be attributed to it being HUC as defined by law (House of
Representatives 2017) and is, therefore, expected to have
an outlying lowest poverty incidence across the region,
as shown in Figure 3 as well.
Map of Access Roads
Figure 6 also shows the overlaid map of the results of
the 2018 hot spots and cold spots maps over the major
roads maintained and constructed by the Department of
Public Works and Highways (DPWH). The map reveals
that most areas identified as cold spots of poverty have
direct access to the major roads. In contrast, some cities
and municipalities with limited access to major roads
were determined to be hot spots of poverty at varying
confidence levels. Moreover, the entirety of Samar Island
appears to need road networks that traverse from north to
south in the central parts. The major roads are primarily
located at the edges of Samar Island.
Studies linking economic growth and poverty reduction
are mainly available. For instance, the collective review
of studies by Škare and Pržiklas Družeta (2016) concludes
that economic growth helps to reduce poverty. However,
there are other factors to consider and be accomplished
as well. Hence, economic growth data will be used as
an alternative data to SAE of poverty incidence in this
paper to model the effects of accessible road networks on
the possible reduction of poverty in the region. Whereas
SAE of poverty incidence are estimates based on several
economic indicators and are used to determine thresholds
to determine the percentage of populations below the
poverty line, economic growth is a set of actual data
representing the performance of LGUs in Eastern Visayas.
The Department of Trade and Industry (DTI) defines
the local economic growth data as an indicator of the
production activities, the number of businesses, and the
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Vol. 152 No. 4, August 2023 of Poverty Incidence and Road Networks

Figure 5. LISA maps of poverty incidence in the Eastern Visayas Region for 2009, 2012, 2015, and 2018 (from left to right).

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Vol. 152 No. 4, August 2023
Figure 6. LISA map (left) and hot spots and cold spots with road networks (right) of poverty incidence in the Eastern Visayas Region for 2018.
amount of investment in the region that can all be used
to measure the local economic dynamism. As a result, the
rise of the local production proxy indicators represents
the economic expansion of the LGU. This measure is
comparable to the increase in the gross domestic product
on a national scale (DTI n/d). On the other hand, the
road network data indicates the level of mobility and
interconnectedness of the LGU. This data approximates
the total length of roads in the LGU, including bridges,
in proportion to the total land area of the LGU. Both
data on local economic growth and road networks were
extracted from the website of the Cities and Municipalities
Competitive Index (CMCI) website of the DTI. The scores
in these indicators can be anywhere from 0.00–2.50. In
addition, the 2019 data were used as an alternative since
the 2018 data were unavailable. Moreover, the Dolores,
Maslog, and Silvino Lobos municipalities were not
included in the statistical modeling due to missing data.
The bootstrap regression model with 100 replications
were applied to lessen the computational costs.
Pantolla and Atibagos-Nacion: Spatial Analysis
of Poverty Incidence and Road Networks
Table 2 provides the model’s generated results, with
Appendix III showing the corresponding marginsplot.
Table 2 shows that with the set significance level at 0.05,
a unit increase in the score in road network CMCI score
could generally increase the economic growth CMCI
score of LGU in the Eastern Visayas region by 0.2105
(p-value of 0.0063) points on average. Furthermore, the
marginsplot in Appendix III implies further expanding
road connectivity could increase the scores in the CMCI.
Road expansion appears to have the capability to also
increase the economic growth CMCI score of the LGU
and possibly reduce the poverty in the areas.
Importance of Road Networks in Rural Areas
Constructing local road networks, aside from funding,
entails solid political will. The leadership qualities of
the national and local governments gauged through
the observance of effective planning, proper budgetary
allocation, and good procurement practices are crucial.
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Vol. 152 No. 4, August 2023
Table 2. Bootstrap regression of the economic growth of the cities and municipalities using road network CMCI score in the Eastern
Visayas Region in 2019.
Regressor Observed coefficient
Road network CMCI score 0.2105
SE, CI, LL, and UL denote standard error, confidence interval, lower limit, and upper limit, respectively.
Building road networks have hurdles but can be attained
(Llanto 2011). Rural roads are essential for improving
the agricultural sector along with national roads.
Communities are connected by rural roads, linking the
agricultural fields to the primary transportation system
and markets. Costs become cheaper, and the health
marketing environment is promoted by improving rural
roads, thereby boosting crop productivity, crop variation,
and general profitability (Dongges et al. 2006). Rural road
networks in the Philippines, which are in poor condition
and insufficient, is a major impediment for poor farmers.
Such undesirable constraint hampers their productivity
and profitability as costs are increased, and trade from
farm to market becomes challenging. In the valuation
of potential socio-economic benefits of improving rural
roads released by the International Labour Organization,
it was stated that [a] the level of isolation as remoteness
and poverty are correlated; [b] the economic capability of
the area of influence as people may be encouraged to be
productive on their commodities; and [c] level of social
services including access to transportation, hospitals
and/or constructed health facilities, and secondary
schools should be considered (Dongges et al. 2006). The
model in Table 2 also has a value for the coefficient of
determination (otherwise known as r-squared value) at
0.0504 or about 5%, which – while appearing to be low
– is consistent with the conclusion of Škare and Pržiklas
Družeta (2016), stating that the reduction of poverty needs
to consider other factors aside from economic growth.
They conclude that growth is beneficial for alleviating
poverty but not sufficient. The extent to which growth
reduces poverty depends on how poverty is measured,
the absorptive capacity of the impoverished, the rate and
pattern of growth, and the rate and pattern of growth.
In addition, the United States Agency for International
Development (Lucas 2005), as cited by Bogunović
(2001) in Škare and Pržiklas Družeta (2016), specified
that the key to eradicating poverty is to balance growth-
promoting and equality-enhancing strategies. Expanding
basic educational opportunities, increasing access to
quality primary healthcare, combating communicable
diseases, reducing biases against agriculture, reforming
trade, limiting taxes and labor market regulations that
raise labor costs unnecessarily, improving the access to
credit and land and other natural resources for the poor,
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Pantolla and Atibagos-Nacion: Spatial Analysis
of Poverty Incidence and Road Networks
Normal-based
Bootstrap SE p-value 95% CI r-squared
LL UL
0.7629 0.0063 0.0609 0.3601 0.0504
and promoting development policies are policy areas
that can spread incomes more evenly while accelerating
growth. Notwithstanding some short and long-term capital
investments by the government that can be established
after road network expansions, the connectedness of the
poor areas could be a great start, yet much work is needed
for the attainment of growth and possible equality.
There are plans to increase investments in lesser accessible
areas for the regions the national government sets
through the EV-RDP of NEDA-VIII. The same will be
done through the improvement of barangay roads and
bridges, improvement and construction of concrete and
climate change-resilient roads, and completion of road
networks linking isolated areas in Samar Island, among
others. The region still needs to develop infrastructures,
including road networks, particularly in remote areas
where poverty is prevalent. Better-quality access from
farm-to-market roads and bridges that adhere to resilience
against calamities, among others, would provide improved
physical connectivity, as NEDA-VIII (2017) stated. More
details on economic development plans for the region are
specified in the Eastern Visayas Regional Development
Investment Program (EV-RDIP). The EV-RDIP contains
some information on the government's plans on targets,
budgets, and others for the region's economic development
– including the construction of local roads and bridges to
airports, seaports, and access from farm to market (NEDA-
VIII 2018). This study may further provide empirical
results for either revisiting or substantiating the planned
path of road networks for Eastern Visayas, especially in
the clusters of poor areas.
CONCLUSION AND
RECOMMENDATIONS
This paper explicitly provides GIS for the SAE of poverty
incidence in the Eastern Visayas in 2009, 2012, 2015,
and 2018. Spatial analysis was applied to determine if
clustering of poverty incidence exists for all the periods.
It was confirmed that the clusters of “high-high,” “low-
high,” “high-low,” and “low-low” poverty incidence in
each period are all significant and not caused by spatial
Philippine Journal of Science
Vol. 152 No. 4, August 2023
randomness. Additionally, the overlain maps of road
networks and the 2018 SAE hot spots and cold spots
of poverty incidence provide information about the
economic contribution of road networks and accessibility.
Expanding road networks in the region, specifically in the
poverty-stricken areas that are non-randomly clustered,
could contribute to the economic growth of the LGU
and potentially reduce the poverty incidence in the long
run. This is a response to the call of the NEDA-VIII
regarding the creation of precise base maps that could be
used to efficiently develop capital expenditures such as
linking national, provincial, city, and municipality roads.
The connectedness within and between rural areas is
also beneficial in planning where government facilities
and amenities for primary needs could be strategically
constructed. The empirically based plans of action and
implementations may also contribute to the attainment
of SDGs – namely, no poverty (Number 1); decent work
and economic growth (Number 8); industry, innovation,
and infrastructure (Number 9); and reduced inequalities
(Number 10) through local, national, and international
partnerships and efforts. Additionally, the findings may
be used by the stakeholders and/or economic managers as
a guide in revisiting the predetermined plans of action to
reduce poverty levels and implemented more efficiently
in clustered poor neighboring areas, which are statistically
shown to be spatially autocorrelated such as in the case
of Eastern Visayas.
The methods used in this study may also be employed
for other regions with appropriately matching datasets.
On the other hand, future work on this study may include
the new SAE of the PSA and the updated road network
maps from the DPWH. This is to account for the impacts
(and possible recovery from) Coronavirus Diseases 2019,
recent construction developments of the DPWH in line
with the “Build-Build-Build” Program of the past national
administration, and the potential uncontrolled events such
as natural calamities, too. This could be done to attain
eventual devolution in the future.
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
The authors are appreciative of the acquired data from the
PSA and shapefile provided by the DPWH.
STATEMENT ON CONFLICT OF
INTEREST
The authors declare no conflict of interest.
Pantolla and Atibagos-Nacion: Spatial Analysis
of Poverty Incidence and Road Networks
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Appendix I. Typhoon vulnerability map of the Philippines (extracted from the VSDF of NEDA-VIII 2015).

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Vol. 152 No. 4, August 2023 of Poverty Incidence and Road Networks

Appendix II. SAE maps by cities and municipalities in 2018 (extracted from PSA 2021).

Appendix III. Marginsplot of the bootstrap regression for economic growth of the cities and municipalities using
individual scoring of road networks in the Eastern Visayas Region in 2019.

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