and Agency Relationships Chapter 2 Chapter overview 1. CAPM 2. EMH 3. Agency theory CAPM RISK AND RETURN FOR INDIVIDUAL ASSETS • Modern portfolio theory provides a practical framework that assumes that investors are risk averse and preferences are defined in terms of the mean and variance of returns. • Expected values → distributional averages • Using mean return and risk, the investor can make risk-return trade- off comparisons. RISK AND RETURN FOR INDIVIDUAL ASSETS • Mean returns
• Sample variance
• Sample standard deviation
RISK AND RETURN FOR PORTFOLIOS OF ASSETS • Smart investors understand that the risk of a portfolio is not simply the average risk of the assets in the portfolio. • “don’t put all your eggs in one basket.” (Diversification) • Statistical measures of how random variables are related are covariance and correlation. RISK AND RETURN FOR PORTFOLIOS OF ASSETS • Covariance
• Correlation RISK AND RETURN FOR PORTFOLIOS OF ASSETS • Portfolio mean returns
• Portfolio variance THE OPTIMAL PORTFOLIO THE OPTIMAL PORTFOLIO • 40% High Tech & 60% Low Tech
• Standard deviation 12.88%
Systematic versus Unsystematic risk CAPM • According to the CAPM, only risk related to market movements is priced in the market. • The variance or standard deviation of returns for an asset is not the appropriate gauge of risk because it measures total risk, including both diversifiable, firm-specific risk, and systematic, market risk. • beta(β), takes into account an asset’s sensitivity to the market and, thus, only measures systematic, nondiversifiable risk. CAPM Market Efficiency EMH • A better working definition of the EMH is that prices reflect all information such that the marginal benefit of acting on the information does not exceed the marginal cost of acquiring the information. In other words, no investor can consistently generate excess returns • In finance, when we say “information,” we mean items that are truly unanticipated. JOINT HYPOTHESIS PROBLEM • The joint-hypothesis problem arises because of the need to utilize a particular risk-adjustment model to produce required returns, that is, to risk-adjust. This is innocuous if we know with certainty what the correct risk-adjustment model is, but unfortunately we do not. • For example: Value premium AGENCY THEORY • An agency relationship exists whenever someone (the principal) contracts with someone else (the agent) to take actions on behalf of the principal and represent the principal’s interests. • In an agency relationship, the agent has authority to make decisions for the principal. • An agency problem arises when the agent’s and principal’s incentives are not aligned. • Agency costs that arise from principal-agent problems are both direct and indirect. • Much finance theory has focused on how to design an optimal compensation contract to align the interests of shareholders and managers. • To motivate agents, principals include rewards and penalties in compensation contracts, which are referred to as “carrots and sticks.”