2/20/24, 5:51 PM Tech tremors: All eyes on NVDA | Zero Hedge

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Tech tremors: All eyes on NVDA

BY THE MARKET EAR TUESDAY, FEB 20, 2024 - 20:33

NASDAQ breaking
NASDAQ is now "well" below the steep trend line, trading 180 points below the 21 day moving. Note the 50 day comes in at
17185. This is the first bigger support.

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2/20/24, 5:51 PM Tech tremors: All eyes on NVDA | Zero Hedge

Source: Refinitiv

NASDAQ fear
NASDAQ volatility, VXN, is trading at the highest levels since early November. Fear has risen substantially as the world
awaits NVDA earnings. Although you don't compare trending to mean reverting assets, note that last time VXN was here, the
NASDAQ traded 2500 points lower....

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Source: Refinitiv

The semis long...

...is not semi long.

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Source: GS

All eyes on NVDA

SMH 1 week implied volatility (white) vs 20 day realized (blue).

Source: Bloo,berg/@danny_kirsch

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The short is very long

The "move" from late 2023 levels is huge. Nothing new really, but the crowd is very long.

Source: GS

Never forget
CTA downside convexity is meaningful...SPX short term trigger at 4858 according to Goldman's flow guru Scott Rubner.

Source: GS

They need that downside

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The crowd is long and they are bidding up for downside protection (skew is rising).

Source: Refinitiv

Valuation
Tony P on current levels of valuation: "...this isn’t a new story at all, but to be sure, 75% of the YTD rally has been a function
of multiple expansion. again, that probably means very little for the short-term -- and, it has certainly not obstructed an
upward surge over the past four months -- but, today’s starting point is undeniably elevated."

Relatively stressed
The short term VIX inverted vs SPX gap is rather wide. Watch this closely.

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Source: Refinitiv

Small cap stress

The RVX is trading at the highest levels since the melt up in equities started back in October 2023. The gap vs VIX is huge.

Source: Refinitiv

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