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STUDENT DETAILS

Student name: Tran Hoang Phuong Nhi Student ID number: 22003886

Student name: Chu Khanh Linh Student ID number: 22002904
Student name: Le Hoang Phuc Student ID number: 22002474
Student name: Nguyen Diep Thien Kim Student ID number: 22002365
Student name: Nguyen Thanh Kim Phuc Student ID number: 21001278

UNIT AND TUTORIAL DETAILS

Unit name: Principles of Economics Unit number: ECO101

Tutorial/Lecture: Group Report Class day and time: Friday, 12:00 - 15:15
Lecturer or Tutor name: Dr. Pham Dinh Long

ASSIGNMENT DETAILS

Title: Macroeconomics Project

Length: 4767 words Due date: 06/08/2023 Date submitted: 06/08/2023

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signature: Tran Hoang Phuong Nhi
Student’s
signature: Chu Khanh Linh
Student’s
signature: Le Hoang Phuc
Student’s
signature: Nguyen Diep Thien Kim
 2

Student’s
signature: Nguyen Thanh Kim Phuc
Note: An examiner or lecturer / tutor has the right to not mark this assignment if the above declaration
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 3

Macroeconomics Project
Nhi H. P. Tran, Linh K. Chu, Phuc H. Le, Kim D. T. Nguyen, Phuc T. K Nguyen

ECO101: Principles of Economics

PE-T223WSB-9

Dr. Pham Dinh Long

August 6th, 2023

Western Sydney University
 4

Executive Summary

In 2010, Vietnam encountered various obstacles amidst the global economic recovery from the

financial crisis. The government was resolute in implementing a socio-economic development plan

with significant goals, including economic growth, macroeconomic stability, inflation control,

improved growth quality, and social welfare assurance. However, at the beginning of the year, the

country faced challenges with escalating market prices, substantial trade deficits, and banking

liquidity difficulties. The government analyzed the situation and enacted specific strategies to

stabilize the macroeconomy, manage inflation, and target an economic growth rate of approximately

6.5% in 2010. Vietnam's strong determination and proactive approach led to substantial efforts in

shaping the economic landscape during this period. In this article, we will examine the

macroeconomic factors influencing Vietnam in the 2010s and 2020s, with a focus on the measures

implemented to control inflation and ensure economic stability.

 5

Table of contents
Executive Summary
I. Macroeconomic Overview of Vietnam during 2010-2020
1. Economic measures implemented from 2010 to 2020
2. GDP growth from 2010 to 2020
3. Unemployment and Poverty levels throughout the decade spanning 2010 to 2020
4. Exchange rate fluctuations and Foreign Trade dynamics in the period between 2010 and 2020
III. Inflation in Vietnam during 2010-2020
1. Definition and explanation of inflation in Vietnam from 2010 to 2020
2. Types of inflation and their impact on the Economy
3. Causes of inflation in Vietnam during the decade of 2010-2020
4. Measuring inflation in Vietnam between 2010 and 2020
IV. Impact of Inflation on Vietnam during 2010-2020
1. The impact of inflation on Vietnam's economy from 2010 to 2020
2. The ramifications of inflation on Vietnam's society between 2010 and 2020
3. The consequences of inflation on Vietnam's political landscape during the period from 2010 to
2020
V. Efforts to Control Inflation in Vietnam during 2010-2020
1. A summary of the inflation-control measures implemented from 2010 to 2020
2. The involvement of the government and policies in curbing inflation throughout the decade
spanning 2010 to 2020
a. Price controls
b. Fiscal policy
c. Tight monetary policy
3. The effectiveness and limitations of inflation control methods from 2010 to 2020
VI. Conclusion
1. Summary of key findings
2. Repercussions for the present state of Vietnam's economy
3. Proposals for prospective investigations
VII. Reference
VIII. Appendix
 6

I. Macroeconomic Overview of Vietnam during 2010-2020

1. Economic measures implemented from 2010 to 2020

Prior to the years 2010–2020, more precisely the years 2007–2008, the entire globe went through a

financial crisis. The global economic downturn raised financial market risks, the value of the

international currency rose, and the level of strategic competition between nations grew ferociously.

However, Vietnam has implemented the "Socio-economic development strategy 2011-2020" also

known as the "Strategy" in order to get over that challenging period and continue to reform and

develop. After implementing the "Strategy," the macro-economy was more stable, inflation was kept

under control, and economic growth was quite good. The GDP growth for the entire Strategy period

was 5.9%/year, which places the country among the high-growth nations in the region and the world,

where GDP reached its highest level of 6.8% in the 2016-2020 period. Additionally, the total amount

invested in social development rose by 10.6% year on average and attracted several high-tech, large-

scale foreign direct investment projects. The total volume of exports and imports expanded

significantly, the trade and international payments balances significantly improved, and foreign

exchange reserves reached their greatest level ever. The Ministry of Finance (2021) reports that with

the five objectives established, the GDP per capita did not achieve the desired level (target: 3200–

3500 USD/person, achieved: 2.715 USD/person ).

2. GDP growth from 2010 to 2020

According to the World Bank (2023), Vietnam went from being one of the world's poorest nations to

a low-middle-income nation because of economic reforms implemented since 1986 and favorable

global trends, claims the World Bank (2023). Vietnam's GDP during the "Strategy" period was 5.9%,

placing it among the nations with the strongest economies in the world and the region. From 2011 to

2015, Vietnam's average growth rate was 5.9%. From 2016 to 2019, it reached its highest level of

6.8%. Although the COVID-19 pandemic severely affected the global economy and Vietnam in

2020, Vietnam still managed to achieve a growth rate of 2.4% and was one of the four economies in
 7

the world with the highest growth in GDP per capita (Egypt, China, and Taiwan). The share of

processed exports in the overall export value of commodities climbed from 65% in 2011 to 85% in

2020, reflecting the growth of the processing sector, manufacturing, and the use of high technology

in industries and fields. The tourism sector has advanced significantly and produced significant

outcomes; the number of foreign tourists climbed from 5 million arrivals in 2010 to 18 million

arrivals in 2019.

3. Unemployment and Poverty levels throughout the decade spanning 2010 to 2020
Employed labor continues to increase, labor structure changes rapidly, however, jobs requiring skills

are still limited. Over 1.1 million persons in the country were unemployed in 2019, making up 1.97%

of the workforce (Appendix A). It has an equal number of unemployed persons in both urban and

rural locations. However, Appendix B demonstrates that there was a sizable disparity between the

underemployment rates in urban and rural areas; in 2019, the urban underemployment rate was

0.67%, while the rural underemployment rate was 1.57%. These figures demonstrate that Vietnam is

currently experiencing a significant wave of labor migration from rural to urban areas because urban

employment is consistently higher than in rural areas (General Statistics Office, 2019).

According to data from the Ministry of Finance (2021), the number of poor households has

decreased over time. In 2020, there were 16.5 thousand such households nationwide, down 75.9%

from the previous year, and there were 66.5 thousand fewer hungry people overall, down 76.1%. The

multidimensional approach poverty rate in 2020 reached about 4.7%, making Vietnam one of the

first countries to reach the finish line ahead of the United Nations' Millennium Goals on poverty

reduction.
 8

4. Exchange rate fluctuations and Foreign Trade dynamics in the period between 2010 and
2020
The State Bank of Vietnam uses exchange rate tools to regulate macroeconomic indicators such as:

Trade balance (import and export), inflation, gold price stability, market interest rate stability,etc.

Financial and monetary market review (2022) showed that between 2012 and 2020: The USD/VND

exchange rate was more stable during this time, and the state bank's exchange rate policy followed

market trends. The foreign exchange market has improved as a result of the state bank's monetary

policies, and the free market's operations have become more constrained. However, the daily

announcement by the state bank of the USD/VND central exchange rate may not always accurately

represent the real nature of market supply and demand, particularly when there is an excess or

pressure on foreign currency.

III. Inflation in Vietnam during 2010-2020

1. Definition and explanation of inflation in Vietnam from 2010 to 2020

In macroeconomics, inflation is defined as an increase in the general price level of goods and

services over time and the loss of value of money. Moreover, compared to other countries, inflation

also refers to the decrease in the value of a country's currency relative to the currencies of other

countries.

Throughout the decade, from 2010-2020, there were various changes in the inflation of Vietnam's

economy, with a positive outcome from the inflation rate of two numbers to one number and being

stable during the phase of 2016-2020.

2. Types of inflation and their impact on the Economy

There are three primary types of Inflation: demand-pull Inflation, cost-push Inflation, and built-in

Inflation.
 9

Demand-pull Inflation occurs when the increase in demand leads to an increase in price. An example

of illustrating this concept is the situation in 2020; the shortage of goods and high demands of

consumers to purchase necessities led to the price of masks, food, and drugs rising.

Cost-push Inflation occurs when the price of materials increases, forcing businesses to increase the

price. This situation also occurred in 2020, when most countries closed international transactions,

and materials and fuel costs rose.

Eventually, built-in Inflation occurs when the employees are no longer satisfied with their salary and

ask for a higher salary from the employers. The dissatisfaction with the salary can cause a labor

shortage that forces employers to raise the employees’ salaries and increase production costs.

3. Causes of inflation in Vietnam during the decade of 2010-2020

Inflation results from diverse factors, including the main ones: demand-pull, cost-push, and built-in

effect. In 2010-2020, cost-push effect, particularly the trade deficit, caused Inflation in this phase.

According to GSO, the economy in 2011 faced a trade deficit that led to over 87% of imported goods

being the input materials for domestic production. These materials include iron, steel, fabric,

fertilizer, and electronic components. With the high price of imported goods, the price of the

products also increases. The thing of relying on importing goods indirectly caused Inflation in 2011.

Moreover, in 2020, the world's economy was affected heavily by COVID-19, including Vietnam.

The disease hindered the production of goods and services, which caused either the limitation of

goods or the rise in production, leading to demand-pull and cost-push effects.

In June 2020, fuel costs rose three times after an instant decrease from Tet, and the price of pork

constantly rose. According to Prof. Vu Dinh Anh: "Inflation in 2020 clearly shows the demand-pull

factor, and, in 2020, the total retail sales of consumer goods and services increased only 2.6%

compared to 2019, and if the price factor is excluded, it will decrease by 1.2%, while in 2019 it will

increase by 9.5%. The inflation-driven role of the demand-pull factor became more robust when the
 10

industrial production price index in 2020 decreased by 0.6%, and the service price decreased by

0.73%; only the agricultural production price increased by 8.24%, while the export price index

decreased by 1.32% and the import price."

4. Measuring inflation in Vietnam between 2010 and 2020

CPI Indicator measures a country's inflation rate at a specific time to identify whether the inflation

rate increases or decreases or to forecast. Based on the data collected from the International

Monetary Fund, World Bank, and OECD Inflation CPI Indicator, the Inflation rates in 2010-2020 are

calculated and shown in the following table:

Year Inflation rate

2020 3.22%

2019 2.80%

2018 3.54%

2017 3.52%

2016 2.67%

2015 0.63%

2014 4.08%

2013 6.59%

2012 9.09%

2011 18.68%

2010 9.21%
 11

The inflation rate in Vietnam in 2010-2020 peaked at 18.68% in 2011 and had the lowest rate, 0.63%

in 2015, with the gap being 18.05%. Vietnam faced a high inflation rate from 2010 to 2012, which

gradually decreased from 2013 and became stable from 2016-2020 with small gaps between the

rates. After ten years, the price increase, also known as depreciation, has increased by 78.6%

(Appendix C).

IV. Impact of Inflation on Vietnam during 2010-2020

1. The impact of inflation on Vietnam's economy from 2010 to 2020

Developing countries are subject to currency devaluation as a result of rising inflation. High

inflation, in particular, diminishes the appeal of a rising economy's goods and services, leading to a

demand for a lower exchange rate. Capital outflows may occur when exchange rates decrease as

investors seek to protect the value of their holdings. These capital outflows, on the other hand, may

trigger a further loss in confidence and put additional pressure on the exchange rate. Consider the

large fluctuations in the USD/VND exchange rate. Beginning in April 2011, the volume of loans in

USD, the balance of payments, and the significant reduction in total foreign exchange reserves

prompted a strong demand for USD. When the market appears to have a wide difference between the

official exchange rate and the black market rate over a long period of time, the State Bank of

Vietnam continuously sells foreign currency to intervene.

Furthermore, rising inflation caused an increase in interest rates in 2011 to 18%; as a result of high

loan rates, businesses tended to manufacture fewer items. At a meeting in October 2011, it was

claimed that out of an estimated 57 enterprises that had registered for operation, up to 47 were still

running.

2. The ramifications of inflation on Vietnam's society between 2010 and 2020

The impact of inflation on the basic cost of living is the most substantial for developing nations. This

is especially critical if inflation causes costs for basic necessities like food, fuel, and housing to rise.
 12

In particular, the consumer price index in Vietnam surprisingly slowed significantly in January 2011

and climbed by 1.74% compared to the previous month. In early July, the prices of beef, poultry,

seafood, and green vegetables in Hanoi skyrocketed. The impact of inflation on the basic cost of

living is the most substantial for developing nations. This is especially critical if inflation causes

costs for basic necessities like food, fuel, and housing to rise. In particular, the consumer price index

in Vietnam surprisingly slowed significantly in January 2011 and climbed by 1.74% compared to the

previous month. In early July, the prices of beef, poultry, seafood, and green vegetables in Hanoi

skyrocketed.

High input prices combined with shifting currency rates made production and business activities

extremely difficult for enterprises. In this uncertain environment, it was becoming increasingly

difficult for enterprises to preserve and expand corporate capital. At the same time, the

implementation of investment projects encountered numerous challenges, making all cost projections

likely to become outdated in the face of volatile market and price movements.

High inflation and macroeconomic uncertainty have eroded people's trust in the local currency,

which they anticipate to use more and more.

3. The consequences of inflation on Vietnam's political landscape during the period from 2010
to 2020
Following the Politburo's conclusion on the socioeconomic situation in 2011, the Government

released Resolution No. 11 on the primary solutions concentrating on user fatigue and economic

stability. Macro, maintaining social security, and Resolution No. 77 dated 3-4-2011 on the monthly

Government meeting.
 13

Monetary policy must emphasize inflation control. To achieve this purpose, the money supply

growth rate must be controlled so that it does not exceed the pace of economic growth, as it has in

the past. Inflation was only 4.3% in the first 11 months of 2014 when compared to the same time in

2013. In the first 11 months of 2014, the average CPI climbed by 4.3%, half the rate of growth seen

during the previous ten years. Thus, the overall view from 2011 to 2014 revealed Vietnam's

significant effort in price control. Vietnam had relinquished its position as the country with the

highest inflation rate in the area to Indonesia (8.32%), with an inflation rate oscillating about 6%,

and had become one of the countries implementing effective inflation management. the most

powerful.

For Vietnam, the period of stable inflation provided a perfect chance for macroeconomic

policymakers to feel more safe with macroeconomic stability and inflation control as the primary

goal. There was an opportunity to focus on higher growth than the previous year through shifting

policies and management solutions. Simultaneously, this was an opportunity to remove barriers to

production and business, to support the market with policies of exemption, reduction, or

postponement of some budget revenues, to support investment interest rates or to provide loans for

temporary storage of products when export prices fall; and to mobilize Government bonds with

lower interest rates to serve public investment.

V. Efforts to Control Inflation in Vietnam during 2010-2020

1. A summary of the inflation-control measures implemented from 2010 to 2020

In the period from 2010 to 2020, Viet Nam faced various challenges in managing inflation. In

response to economic fluctuations, financial crises, and other factors, governments and central banks

employed a range of inflation control measures such as promoting production and business,

encouraging exports, controlling trade deficit, adjusting the price of electricity, petrol strengthening
 14

social security, and promoting propaganda. The specific measures taken varied across different

regions and depended on the prevailing economic conditions.

2. The involvement of the government and policies in curbing inflation throughout the decade
spanning 2010 to 2020

From 2010 through 2020, Vietnam faced a dynamic economic landscape, marked by both periods of

growth and economic downturns, controlling inflation became a critical objective for governments

and central banks to ensure price stability and sustainable economic growth. Various strategies were

employed to manage inflation, including price controls, fiscal policy, and tight monetary policy.

a. Price controls

Price controls were one of the measures that can manage inflation by directly influencing the cost of

goods and services in the market. They involved setting price ceilings for certain essential goods and

services, limiting the extent to which prices can increase. By capping prices, the government aimed

to prevent excessive price hikes that could lead to cost-push inflation. Price controls were applied to

essential goods such as food items, medicines, fuel, and other necessities to ensure the affordability

and accessibility of critical items for people. By stabilizing the prices of essential goods, the

government aimed to ease the financial burden on consumers, especially those with lower incomes

who might be disproportionately affected by soaring prices. Price controls also had impacts on

inflation expectations. By providing a sense of predictability and stability, price controls helped in

anchoring inflation expectations, which could further contribute to price stability in the economy.

However, price controls were often considered a short-term solution to address immediate

inflationary pressures. They didn’t address the underlying causes of inflation due to some limitations

such as the risk of supply shortages. When prices were capped below market equilibrium levels,

producers might find it less profitable to supply those goods, leading to shortages and black market

activities. This could exacerbate scarcity and create imbalances in the market. In some cases, price
 15

controls could lead to distortions in the allocation of resources and hinder market efficiency.

Therefore, it's crucial for policymakers to carefully balance the advantages and disadvantages of

price controls and consider them as part of a comprehensive inflation management strategy.

b. Fiscal policy

In macroeconomics, fiscal policy plays a significant role, it is a tool to help the government regulate

the economy or bring the economy to equilibrium when the economy enters a recession. Fiscal

policy affects economic activity scale through changes in government expenditure or taxes. When

the government increases or decreases expenditure on goods, services such as buying weapons,

equipment, building roads, bridges, upgrading infrastructure, and paying salaries to state officials,

will affect aggregate demand in a multiplier manner, it means when the government spending

increases, aggregate demand will increase more and vice versa. Moreover, during periods of high

inflation, the government can raise taxes and reduce the money supply to cool down the economy,

otherwise when economic downturns, the government can reduce taxes to encourage spending and

investment, thereby promoting economic growth.

c. Tight monetary policy

When the money supply exceeds the money demand, it will easily lead to inflation, so the main

target of monetary tightening is to reduce inflation and stabilize the market due to the ability to

reduce the money supply in circulation. Some measures to tighten the currency such as lending

control, credit crunch, and increase interest rates. When central banks increase interest rates,

borrowing becomes more expensive. This leads to reduced consumer spending and business

investments, which helps to lower overall demand in the economy and mitigate demand-pull

inflation, contributing to a more balanced level of borrowing and spending. The tight monetary

policy imposes higher reserve requirements on banks, leading to reduced lending. Even cut credit

lending as it was done in cash and thus also reduced the amount of cash in circulation. This restricts
 16

credit availability and controls excessive borrowing and spending, thus addressing aggregate

inflation.

In addition, the government also took other measures to boost the economic environment by

encouraging production and promoting propaganda, aiming to mitigate both the economic slowdown

and inflationary pressures.

3. The effectiveness and limitations of inflation control methods from 2010 to 2020

Vietnam's inflation control measures had both successes and limitations from 2010 to 2020. Those

measures above not only support aggregate demand, and attract more foreign direct investment into

Vietnam, but also contribute to controlling inflation, stabilizing the macro-economy, and ensuring

national financial safety.

Alternatively, each method also faced limitations. For instance, higher interest rates and restricted

credit availability could hinder private investment and dampen overall economic activity, impacting

businesses and consumers alike. Besides, promoting public investment, reducing taxes and fees to

support business, also increasing cash flow in the market, and leading to the budget deficit (VTV,

2020). Promoting public investment can create motivation for many economic sectors to develop and

create more jobs for workers. However, if the supply of goods is abundant but cannot be sold, it

might cause inventories, affecting the production of enterprises (VTV, 2020).

In conclusion, the inflation control methods employed by Vietnam from 2010 to 2020 demonstrated

varying degrees of effectiveness and limitations. While price controls, fiscal policy, and tight

monetary policy were effective in managing inflation, they sometimes posed challenges to economic

growth. It's important to note that the effectiveness of these methods often depended on external

factors, global economic conditions, domestic economic context, and policy implementation.

Additionally, central banks and governments in Viet Nam should continuously adjust their strategies
 17

in response to changing economic conditions and emerging challenges to control inflation and boost

economic growth.

VI. Conclusion

1. Summary of key findings

During different periods, Vietnam's inflation rate has undergone varying changes. From 2010 to

2020, the inflation rate decreased from double digits to single digits and remained steady at 4%

between 2016 and 2020. The most notable period was from 2011 to 2015, characterized by

maintaining a low and stable inflation rate. This stable inflation situation resulted in significant

accomplishments for Vietnam's economy:

● The macroeconomy operated steadily.

● The foreign exchange market and exchange rates remained stable.

● Foreign exchange reserves increased to a record level.

● The liquidity of the banking systems improved.

These achievements significantly contributed to the sustainable development of Vietnam's economy

during that time.

2. Repercussions for the present state of Vietnam's economy

Vietnam's economy has undergone remarkable transformations by adopting Doi Moi and aligning

with beneficial global developments. Transitioning from one of the poorest countries, Vietnam has

emerged as one of the rapidly growing economies in Southeast Asia. Despite this progress, inflation

continues to be a major concern, and its management remains a key focus for policymakers.

Currently, crucial implications for Vietnam's economy include the need to implement effective

monetary policies, initiate structural reforms to address supply-side constraints, and invest in

infrastructure and sustainable development.

 18

3. Proposals for prospective investigations

To research inflation in the future, focus should be placed on the following aspects:

Investigate the causes and factors contributing to reducing the inflation rate: Analyze the key

factors that have contributed to lowering the inflation rate during this period, including the

effectiveness of policy measures, the supply-demand situation of goods, economic growth, and the

influence of the international environment.

Assess the impact of inflation on various economic sectors: Examine the effects of inflation on

consumption, investment, exports, and employment. Study how the fluctuations in the inflation rate

affect specific economic sectors and the overall economy.

Evaluate the effectiveness of inflation control policies: Study the effectiveness of inflation control

measures implemented during the 2010-2020 period. Assess monetary policies, budget policies, and

other economic policies and their impact on the inflation situation.

Analyze the impact of inflation on key economic indicators: Focus on researching the relationship

between inflation and important economic indicators such as GDP, unemployment rate, and imports-

exports. Determine how inflation can affect economic growth and stability.

Explore innovative solutions to alleviate inflationary pressures: Research new and innovative

measures to control inflation while enhancing economic stability and sustainability. Consider policy

measures and mechanisms that stimulate economic development while maintaining inflation

stability.

These studies will provide crucial information for policymakers and researchers to understand and

address inflation issues in the future.

VII. Reference

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VIII. Appendix

Appendix A. Structure of unemployed workers by age group, urban/rural and gender in 2019

Appendix B. Rate of underemployment in working age

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Appendix C. Inflation calculation from 2010-2020 in Vietnam