GROUP ASSIGNMENT

COVER SHEET
STUDENT DETAILS

Student name: Nguyen Ngoc Quynh Anh Student ID number: 23005430

Student name: Nguyen Khanh Vinh Student ID number: 23005086
Student name: Do Tran Nhat Minh Student ID number: 23005804
Student name: Nguyen Thi Ngoc Nhi Student ID number: 23005667
Student name: Nguyen Hai Yen Student ID number: 22002872
Student name: Le Gia Han Student ID number: 23005674
UNIT AND TUTORIAL DETAILS

Unit name: Principle of Economics Unit number: PE-12324PWB-1

Tutorial/Lecture: Lecture Class day and time: Friday 12:00 - 15:15
Lecturer or Tutor name: Dr. Nguyen Thi Hoang Anh
ASSIGNMENT DETAILS

Title: Macroeconomics Project

Length: 3,241 words Due date: Dec 08, 2023 Date submitted: Dec 08, 2023

DECLARATION
I hold a copy of this assignment if the original is lost or damaged.
I hereby certify that no part of this assignment or product has been copied from any other student’s work
or from any other source except where due acknowledgement is made in the assignment.
I hereby certify that no part of this assignment or product has been submitted by me in another
(previous or current) assessment, except where appropriately referenced, and with prior permission
from the Lecturer / Tutor / Unit Coordinator for this unit.
No part of the assignment/product has been written/ produced for me by any other person except
where collaboration has been authorised by the Lecturer / Tutor /Unit Coordinator concerned.
I am aware that this work may be reproduced and submitted to plagiarism detection software programs
for the purpose of detecting possible plagiarism (which may retain a copy on its database for future
plagiarism checking).

Student’s signature: Nguyen Ngoc Quynh Anh

Student’s signature: Nguyen Khanh Vinh
Student’s signature: Do Tran Nhat Minh
Student’s signature: Nguyen Thi Ngoc Nhi
Student’s signature: Nguyen Hai Yen
Student’s signature: Le Gia Han
MACROECONOMICS PROJECT 2

MACROECONOMICS PROJECT
Discuss the causes of inflation 2022-2023

Nguyen Ngoc Quynh Anh, Nguyen Khanh Vinh, Do Tran Nhat Minh

Nguyen Thi Ngoc Nhi, Nguyen Hai Yen, Le Gia Han

UEH - International School of Business, UEH university

ECO101 : PRINCIPLE OF ECONOMICS

Dr. Nguyen Thi Hoang Anh

December 08, 2023

Video Presentation:

https://youtu.be/XwzIDkrJAjM?si=b1QsNhSyLMKuXtFn

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1_RMJEf_JvW5KaSm9rgLUriLo94egfZtI/view?usp=sharing
MACROECONOMICS PROJECT 3

Table of content

Abstract ..................................................................................................................................... 4

Introduction .............................................................................................................................. 5

Definition of inflation............................................................................................................... 6

The economic situation during 2022-2023 ............................................................................. 7

Cause of inflation 2022-2023 ................................................................................................... 8

A. Demand-pull and cost-push inflation .............................................................................. 8

B. The chain supply disruption ............................................................................................ 9

C. The monetary policies shock ........................................................................................ 10

D. Conflict between Russia and Ukraine ........................................................................... 11

E. Conflict between Israel and Hamas .............................................................................. 12

Conclusion .............................................................................................................................. 13

Reference ................................................................................................................................ 14
MACROECONOMICS PROJECT 4

Abstract

This report discusses the causes of global inflation in the last two years. Based on the
analytical data, it is seen that the inflation rate is accelerating rapidly while the growth rate of
the global economy is gradually slowing down. This is a worrying sign, but companies also
have new, more efficient ways to improve their business operations. The study takes data from
2022 when the global economy will stop due to the impact of the Covid-19 epidemic. In early
2023, a conflict broke out between Ukraine and Russia. Towards the end of the year, the dispute
between Israel and Hamas affected countries around the world as prices were volatile due to
limited supply. The effects of supply chain disruptions caused by the post-Covid-19 pandemic
and rising energy and commodity prices have been the main reason for price increases since
the outbreak of war during the Russian invasion. Ukraine. The events between Israel and
Hamas, a series of internal political events that seriously strengthened the global supply chain,
caused a constant increase in inflation since early 2021. All severe effects of political events
will be highlighted in this report.
MACROECONOMICS PROJECT 5

Introduction

"Inflation" is one of economics's most common and familiar terms. It is a crucial element
that can harm and contribute to a nation's growth and stability. Every country always aims to
maintain the inflation rate as stable and suitable as possible due to its comprehensive effect on
the economy.

In 2020, the world faced a severe situation that led to numerous economic difficulties due to
the Covid-19 pandemic. Worldwide inflation has risen strongly since the reopening of the
economies in the first half of 2021(Pew Research Center, 2022). The economy's recovery
increased the inflation rate, which resulted in June 2022. The World Bank reported that
inflation had risen by 5% in advanced economies. However, wars between some countries have
occurred later and have led to the vulnerabilities of the banking system. Therefore, some
measures have been taken recently to recover the economy, but these have been both positive
and negative.

Inflation is complicated and can have far-reaching consequences, affecting the purchasing
power of consumers and businesses alike. To fully understand its complications, it is essential
to conduct a detailed analysis of the causes of inflation, as these factors serve as significant
factors that may exacerbate the economy. In recent years, inflation has been caused by
numerous factors, which will be discussed: demand-pull and cost-push inflation, chain supply
disruption, monetary and fiscal policies, and conflict between nations such as Russia and
Ukraine, Israel, and Hamas. After the development of inflation, some monetary policies have
been published to keep the inflation rate as close to the target as possible.

The objectives of this report are twofold. First, we will analyze the economic situation
anticipated between 2022 and 2023, then provide insights on the matter and identify the reasons
why inflation occurs that align with measurements taken to deal with the problems.
MACROECONOMICS PROJECT 6

Definition of inflation

The term "inflation" refers to an increase in the overall level of prices in the economy
(Mankiw, 2013). In other words, the rise in prices leads to a decrease in the value of money,
which means that a currency unit effectively buys less goods and services than it did in prior
periods. Inflation, the most widely used measure of inflation, is measured by the percentage
change of the consumer price index (CPI) over some time. This reflects the spending habits
that can be used constructively to understand the purchasing behavior of an average consumer
in a specific market. On some special occasions, a nation can face an excessive, out-of-control
rate of inflation- hyperinflation- causing many adverse consequences such as shortages and
bankruptcy that need to be controlled by specific policies. However, in developed countries,
where a central bank can predict inflation, timely measurements can be taken.
MACROECONOMICS PROJECT 7

The economic situation during 2022-2023

According to the IMF, global inflation rose by about 4.1 percent in 2022, while world
economic growth declined by 3% compared with 2021(World et al., 2023). This is an alarming
figure for the global economy. The first reason was the rise of the US dollar, which increased
by more than 20% in 2022 and has led to losses for countries due to currency depreciation.
Public debt, foreign exchange reserves, and imports of goods have also been affected. The
currencies of ASEAN countries have also depreciated, with Vietnam losing about 5%.
Secondly, the war between Ukraine and Russia disrupted the supply chain of energy sources
and caused imbalances in supply and demand between countries. In addition to oil and gas, the
supply chain of cereals has also been affected by the war between Russia and Ukraine, leading
to a food crisis in some countries. Thirdly, the supply chain of components in China has also
been disrupted due to the impact of COVID-19, causing global production disruptions due to a
shortage of Chinese components.

In 2023, the recovery of the global economy could be faster. According to the OECD, global
economic growth is expected to slow down from 3%, while the average inflation is 6.5%.
However, the war between Ukraine and Russia remained complicated due to the consequences
of the supply chain disruptions. Besides, the government has to tighten some policies to restrict
the inflation rate, leading to some banking vulnerabilities, so they must respond to financial
instability and debt distress risks. However, the global economy remained uncertain; while
returning the inflation rate to the target, the government also needed to avoid a recession.
Furthermore, in combating inflation, some central banks increased the interest rate, which was
terrible news for businesses and consumers who borrowed money, which would slow future
economic growth.

Although there were some difficulties for the global economy, there are still some reasons
for optimism. The labor market is vital in many countries; this will encourage the whole
economy by fulfilling empty positions in any field. According to BCG, the growing global
crises, exacerbated by Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the economic downturn, have prompted
business leaders to adopt a proactive approach and uphold their societal responsibilities
(Webster et al., 2023)
 MACROECONOMICS PROJECT 8

Cause of inflation 2022-2023

A. Demand-pull and cost-push inflation

Demand-pull and cost-push inflation are among the most significant reasons that severely
affect the economy and cause inflation in 2022-2023.

First of all, demand-pull inflation happens when the overall demand for goods and services
exceeds the available supply for extended periods, which results in supply shortages, scarce
products, and competition in pricing that pushes up the price level. This phenomenon happens
for several reasons. For instance, when the economy grows, people will have higher incomes
and feel confident about spending more, leading to a constant demand increase in prices.
Spending by the government raises demand for some goods. Government initiatives like tax
reductions also have an effect since they increase customers' disposable money, which they can
use to purchase products and services. This results in demand-pull inflation if it exceeds supply.
In 2022, the lockdown and quarantine during the Covid-19 pandemic stifled consumers'
demand. When the world reopened, stimulus-flush consumers unleashed pent-up demand into
a global economy whose supply networks had not yet been rebuilt and could not keep up
(Andrew Lisa, 2022).

Demand-pull, cost-push inflation or wage-push inflation occurs when the cost of raw
materials and costs of wages increase, leading to the higher overall cost of production and
potentially decreasing the economy's aggregate supply while the demand for products stays
unchanged. Besides, other reasons will cause cost-push, such as natural disasters, government
regulations, policy changes, or political and economic instability (Will Kenton, 2023). Higher
production costs are likely to follow if a severe disaster causes unexpected damage to a
manufacturing plant and shuts down or partially interrupts the supply chain. Businesses transfer
costs to customers through higher pricing when they are compelled to raise prices due to
increased manufacturing expenses. People and households may have reduced purchasing
power due to paying more for necessities. The two main reasons for cost-push inflation in 2022
are disturbances to the supply chain due to the COVID-19 pandemic, which has increased the
price of trading goods internationally. Russia's conflict with Ukraine has resulted in sharp price
increases for gas oil, which is a crucial component for almost all production operations
(PricewaterhouseCoopers, 2022).
 MACROECONOMICS PROJECT 9

B. The chain supply disruption

The supply chain crisis appeared in 2021 when the world faced the challenge of the post-
COVID-19 pandemic, which became more serious when the conflict between Ukraine and
Russia began in 2022 and is increasingly dragging on. A series of consecutive political events
severely disrupted the global supply chain, contributing to price escalation, which has been the
cause of the persistent rise in inflation since the beginning of 2021. A resurgence in aggregate
demand in late 2021 and 2022, a tightening labor market, disrupted energy supplies, and supply
chain disruptions for other inputs likely contribute to continuous high inflation.

Supply chain disruptions date back to early 2020 when news reports highlighted that
COVID-19-related shutdowns were slowing, leading to a backlog of raw and intermediate
goods orders. Global shipping and transportation costs surged in 2022 after the COVID-19
pandemic, causing the cost of inputs to rise, contributing to a sharp growth in product prices,
combined with the unprecedented scarcity of the labor force at warehouses to move things and
fewer workers impacts the entire global supply chain. Limited supply has not been able to meet
the sudden increase in consumer demand after COVID-19, causing price escalation and
inflationary pressure. Supply chain disruptions raise input costs, accounting for approximately
60% of the above-trend rise in headline inflation in 2021 and 2022. (Nguyen, 2023). Benigno
constructed an index of global logistics conditions and found that increasing global supply
chain pressures contributed to inflationary pressures in the United States (Di Giovanni & Jan J
J Groen & Adam I Noble, 2022). Additionally, it is estimated that half of the increase in
producer price inflation in the euro area can be attributed to supply constraints (Celasun et al.,
2022).

Furthermore, the conflict between Ukraine and Russia has exacerbated the global supply
chain crisis by limiting the movement of containers and sea transport and leading to
fluctuations in commodity prices. The Russia-Ukraine war has caused pressure, leading to
inflation in most countries. According to the IMF, the global inflation rate in 2022 is 8.8%,
nearly double that of 4.7% in 2021 (Inflation Peaking Amid Low Growth, 2023).
Hyperinflation in 2022, especially in the EU and Russia, stems mainly from supply chain
disruptions of many essential goods following a series of EU sanctions, in which energy and
food are assessed as the two areas most heavily affected. Regarding energy, after solid
sanctions against Russia, the EU had to find alternative supply sources, pushing natural gas
 MACROECONOMICS PROJECT 10

and crude oil costs to record levels. Natural gas prices also increased sharply, doubling
compared to pre-conflict levels, reaching 9.4 USD/MMBTU in August 2023 (Trading et al.).
At the beginning of the conflict, Russia's complete blockade of Ukraine's Black Sea ports and
the EU's embargo on Russia caused the world food supply chain of wheat, corn, barley, or
cooking oil to be disrupted, pushing prices of many food items to skyrocket.

C. The monetary policies shock

Among the vital factors contributing to the inflation surge during 2022 - 2023 was the
unprecedented monetary and fiscal stimulus of nations' authorities worldwide to maintain
income and support fiscal for businesses in 2020 - 2021, the Covid-19 crisis. The year 2020
marked a peak of quarantine measures that governments proposed to limit total demand while
issuing budget policies for their civilians, including supporting private consumption, additional
funding for health services, debt repayment subsidies for businesses most vulnerable to
lockdown conditions, tax relief, and benefits for unemployed individuals. Fiscal stimulus
totaled over $8.4 trillion in the G20's top nations (Goryunov et al., 2023). According to
research, the money supply should grow 4% to 5% a year to achieve 2% inflation ("Money
Supply Tells the Story of Inflation," 2023). However, the money supply in the United States
witnessed an increase of 40%, and the Fed balance has more than doubled in the two years
since 2020. In the euro area, the money supply also rose by 20%, and the ECB balance
increased by 87% ( Goryunov et al., 2023). Excessive growth also explained why inflation
increased sharply during this period. According to the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco,
the combined effect of all fiscal policies in 2020 and 2021 pushed inflation higher and lasted
well into 2022 (Prokop, 2022). Excessive fiscal stimulus pushed gross domestic product (GDP)
beyond the economy's long-term potential, causing high inflation.

Additionally, due to monetary policy, meager interest rates are one of the main reasons for
higher inflation rates. From 2020 to 2022, countries' interest rates remained at record lows due
to monetary policies supporting national economies and finances after the Covid-19 crisis. The
Federal Reserve kept interest rates - the federal funds rate at 2.33% compared to an inflation
rate above 7 or 8%, while the Central Bank of England (BOE) interest rate was 0.1% (Stanford
University, 2022). To cope with this situation, central banks around the world are implementing
tightening monetary policy in the second half of 2022 while raising bank interest rates to
encourage savings, discourage significant purchases, and curb wealth-driven spending, which
can assist in lowering the likelihood of persistent inflation and keep prices from spinning out
 MACROECONOMICS PROJECT 11

of control. With persistent inflation starting in March 2022, the Federal Reserve raised the
policy rate in a series of fast and steady steps. The federal funds rate and the yields on Treasury
bonds at all maturities were higher than the inflation rate as of August 2023. The demand for
consumption is pushed downward by rising interest rates since they raise the cost of consumer
financing and the incentives to save.

In summary, following two years of high levels, inflation has moderated in 2023 but is still
much higher than the Federal Reserve's 2% target. The deflation of some items has contributed
to a decrease in average inflation. On the other hand, as core service inflation has not yet
demonstrated a significant and long-term slowdown, it continues to be a matter of concern
(Fernando et al., 2023).

D. Conflict between Russia and Ukraine

The year 2022 witnessed a crucial economic downturn that caused a significant shock to the
world economy when Russia's comprehensive attack on Ukraine fanned the flames of high
global inflation. The conflict has discrupted food supply chain in particular, prompting an
increase in energy prices, raising transportation expenses, which pushing inflation in many
countries to its highest level in decades.

Russia is one of the world's largest oil producers and energy exporters. However, the conflict
between Ukraine and Russia, along with US and EU sanctions and Russian retaliation, has led
to a global energy crisis. Brent Crude oil price increased to 120 USD/barrel in June 2022, the
highest level since 2014 (Brent et al. 2023 | Statista, 2023). Rising energy prices pushed
European countries and the world into an inflationary spiral, leading to a cost crisis in many
countries due to broken energy supply chains. For example, in the US, energy accounts for
7.6% of the consumer price index, with energy commodities such as fuel accounting for 4%
and energy services such as electricity and pipeline gas accounting for 3.3% (Macchiarelli,
2022). In the UK, electricity, gas, and other fuels account for 3.3% of CPI, with fuel and
lubricants accounting for another 2.7% (Macchiarelli, 2022).

In addition, the food crisis is also one of the leading factors leading to hyperinflation in 2022,
which will last until 2023. Russian and Ukrainian agricultural exports are an essential channel
through which problems trade could spread to the rest of the global economy. According to the
US Department of Agriculture, wheat exports from Russia and Ukraine account for about a
quarter of global exports (Macchiarelli, 2022). The two countries also account for nearly a fifth
 MACROECONOMICS PROJECT 12

of global corn and other coarse grains exports and about 80% of sunflower oil exports. EU and
US Sanctions and supply disruptions are leading to higher wheat and other grain prices.
According to United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization data, global food costs have
risen by 65% since the COVID-19 outbreak and 12% this year alone since Russia invaded
Ukraine (Morgan et al.).

E. Conflict between Israel and Hamas

During the end of the year 2023, the world economy is predicted to suffer a severe crisis due
to an armed conflict in the Middle East that broke out between Israel and Hamas. Governor of
the Bank of England Andrew Bailey stated to CNBC that the current Israeli-Hamas conflict
might jeopardize the bank's attempts to reduce inflation. There might be severe repercussions
for the energy markets, increasing the danger of a price spike and the enormous human tragedy
caused by the already nearly four-week conflict. Recent weeks have seen fluctuations in oil
prices as investors have watched events in the Middle East due to worries that the fighting may
spread to other parts of the energy-rich area (Karen Gilchrist, 2023). The second month of the
Israeli-Hamas confrontation has begun. In addition to the potential economic consequences,
the International Monetary Fund has warned that the violence in the Middle East may raise
inflation in Europe (Angela Barnes, 2023). Until now, the conflict still has had no significant
effect on the global economy, but economists are afraid that if the war keeps going on, the
battle will extend to significant oil-producing countries in the area, like Iran; the world
economy may suffer greatly since a disruption in supply might result in a rise in energy costs
for individuals and businesses. Most developed and emerging economies' central banks would
find it more difficult to control inflation if energy prices rose. This might result in a "higher for
longer" monetary strategy that maintains high interest rates, increasing the cost of borrowing
and refinancing for individuals, businesses, and governments (Bianchi, 2023).
MACROECONOMICS PROJECT 13

Conclusion

In conclusion, the events that unfolded in 2022 and 2023 have had a profound and far-
reaching impact on the global economy. One significant factor contributing to the economy's
inflation is the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine. This war has disrupted the global
supply chain, created geopolitical tensions, and led to economic sanctions, all ripple effects on
the global economy. Besides, the conflict between Israel and Hamas would add another layer
of complexity. The continuous violence and political instability in the region have hindered
economic development, disrupted supply chains, and created uncertainty that affects investor
confidence and trade activities.

Additionally, the impact of the COVID-19 crisis contributed to global inflation due to the
government's policies on the economy's recovery. The Covid-19 pandemic caused widespread
unemployment, business closures, and disruptions in global supply chains. Governments had
to implement various fiscal and monetary policies to mitigate the economic fallout, such as
stimulus packages, interest rate adjustments, and quantitative easing measures. The intricate
interactions between demand-pull and cost-push inflation further complicate the economic
landscape. The increased demand for certain goods and services and rising production costs
have led to inflationary pressures. Additionally, the disruptions in supply chains due to the
brutalities of war have exacerbated these inflationary tendencies, making it even more
challenging to maintain price stability.

Economists, governments, and individuals worldwide will need to take swift corrective
actions to restore economic stability, learning from the mistakes and catastrophic events of
2022 to 2023 through effective policies and international cooperation to enhance resilience,
adaptability, and growth.
MACROECONOMICS PROJECT 14

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MACROECONOMICS PROJECT 17

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