Naushahi, Rizwan, Shahid 1

Ayleen Naushahi, Laiba Rizwan, Laiba Shahid

Prof. Farooq Naseer

ECON 330

12 December 2023

Exploring the Relationship Between Mass Media and Fertility in Pakistan

Introduction:

This paper examines how women’s fertility preferences in Pakistan are affected by their access

to mass media and education. We hypothesize that these factors empower women, inform them

about contraception, and reduce their desired family size. We base our study on the following

trends: a 46% increase in women’s TV exposure from 1994-95 (Olenick), an 11% rise in girls’

school enrollment from 2004-18 (Baron and Bend), and a 47.4% drop in the fertility rate from

1990 to 2023 (“Fertility Rate”).

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Methodology:

The data source for this analysis is the Multiple Cluster Survey (MICS) by UNICEF,

which collects information on 130 indicators of the well-being of children, women, and men in

Pakistan. The primary outcome variable of interest is CM11, which measures the number of

children conceived by a respondent. The main explanatory variables are the exposure to mass

media and the level of education while controlling for child desirability, contraceptive use,

access to electricity, views towards sexual and domestic violence, and life satisfaction.

The analysis employs a four-model multivariate regression approach. The first model is

the simplest, only including mass media categories for females as the independent variable. The

second model adds the mother's education as a control variable. The third model uses child

desirability, which captures the respondents’ preferences and intentions regarding having

children and the life satisfaction variables for females. The fourth model is the most

comprehensive one, which also controls access to electricity, which may affect the respondents’

exposure to mass media and their quality of life, views towards domestic violence, use of

contraceptives, etc. In making this model, we have only focused on data regarding women for

simplicity and better analysis regarding female factors.

Lastly, heteroskedasticity robust standard errors are shown in the table since the Bruesh-

Pagan test confirmed heteroskedasticity in our model.

Results:
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1) Model 1:

Model 1 explores the relationship between mass media exposure and the number of

children born. On average, watching TV is associated with a decrease in the number of children

born by -0.402, radio with a 0.31 decrease in children conceived, newspaper with a 0.547

decrease in the number of children conceived, and internet and mobile phones are associated

with a -0.875 and 0.075 decrease in the average number of children conceived. All of these

results are statistically significant.

2) Model 2:
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Female education has been added to our second model, which shows a statistically

significant result. A one-year increase in female education has an associated decrease in children

born to almost one child (1.15 decrease). The coefficients for mass media variables show a

variation; however, the negative correlation persists on statistically significant levels. The

coefficient for mobile phones shows a positive relation due to the addition of female education as

a control, which positively relates to the use of mobile phones.

3) Model 3:

For our third model, we have controlled for factors like life satisfaction, education, and

desire to have more children. Our base group is women who have never been exposed to media

and report unhappiness. On average, people who desire children later have 1.915 fewer children

than those who do not. Secondly, those who report high life satisfaction are likely to have almost

one less child on average (0.969) than those who are unhappy. Those who report being

moderately happy are, on average, likely to have 0.609 fewer number of children, and indifferent

people have 0.344 lesser number of children on average. Note that after controlling for these

factors, TV still shows significant results that policymakers can use.

4) Model 4:

Our final model controls for various comprehensive factors like desire for children,

education, electricity, contraceptives, domestic violence, and life satisfaction. The base group is

women who have never been exposed to mass media, have no electricity, do not use

contraceptives, report being unhappy, and believe that sexual domestic violence is unacceptable.

Compared to such a cohort, women who have access to electricity report, on average, a 0.449

decrease in the number of children conceived. This may be explained by the higher fertility rate
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among the ultra-poor, who think of children as hands to earn (Todaro and Smith). Those who

use contraceptives report an increase of 0.29 in the number of children. Those who tolerate

sexual domestic violence and find it acceptable report an increase of 0.098 in the number of

children. In our last model, we have TV, female education, electricity, contraceptives, and life

satisfaction as statistically significant at a 5% significance level.

Conclusion - Limitations:

Our results support our claim that exposure to media is correlated with a reduced number

of children. Life satisfaction, traditional education, and education through media are all variables

that are associated with a reduced number of children and an increase in the uptake of

contraceptives. However, our models have limitations, notably an omitted variable bias due to

missing predictors like access to healthcare; additionally, without clarity on the household's

primary decision-maker, a causal analysis is impossible. Moreover, cluster sampling in MICS

poses biases if clusters are formed under flawed judgment, presenting a constraint in our

analysis.
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Bibliography

‌Baron, Juan D., and May Bend. “Facing the Challenges of Girls’ Education in Pakistan.”

World Bank Blogs, 5 Mar. 2023, blogs.worldbank.org/education/facing-challenges-

girls-education-pakistan.

“Cluster Sampling.” Corporate Finance Institute, 21 Nov. 2023,

corporatefinanceinstitute.com/resources/data-science/cluster-sampling/.

“Fertility Rate, Total (Births per Woman) - Pakistan.” World Bank Open Data,

data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.TFRT.IN?locations=PK. Accessed 14 Dec. 2023

Olenick, I. “Women’s Exposure to Mass Media Is Linked to Attitudes toward

Contraception in Pakistan, India, and Bangladesh.” International Perspectives on

Sexual and Reproductive Health, vol. 26, 2 Mar. 2000, p. 48,

www.guttmacher.org/journals/ipsrh/2000/03/womens-exposure-mass-media-linked-

attitudes-toward-contraception-pakistan. Accessed 9 Dec. 2023.

TOWARDS UNIVERSAL ACCESS TO FAMILY PLANNING INFORMATION AND

SERVICES IN PAKISTAN, United Nations Population Fund.

Todaro, Michael P., and Stephen C. Smith. Economic Development. Pearson, 2020.