2023 12 12 Trim Econ - Economy in Data December 2023

ECONOMY IN DATA: December 2023
Fakhrul Fulvian
Chief Economist
fakhrul.fulvian@trimegah.com
Jonathan Gunawan
Research Associate
jonathan.gunawan@trimegah.com
Reinaldy Sutanto
Research Associate
reinaldy.sutanto@Trimegah.com
December 2023 Summary
Global Macro This Month: Indonesia Economic Data

• Net Long 10yr Gold Position improved as markets • Indonesia latest inflation data is at +2.86% y-y
expect faster Fed rate cut. Meanwhile, Net Long Oil in November 2023, with higher staple prices as
Position deteriorated following uncertainty on future the significant driver.
oil production, as markets price in the potential • Rice price increased by +16.3% ytd, together
disunity among OPEC+ members to adhere to the with garlic at +30.3% ytd and red chilli pepper at
production cut agreement. +94.2% ytd.
• The on-going bond outflow in Japan at – • Up to 10M23, govt. revenue growth was at
USD35.06bn occurred amidst loosening bond yield +2.8% y-y (90.9% of FY2023 budget), while
control policy, and higher budget deficit going into government spending growth was at -4.7% y-y
2024. On the same page, China’s bond market also (73.2% of FY2023 budget).
experienced the similar thing at -USD116.58bn, due • November PMI was higher at 51.7 (prev: 51.5),
to higher govt. bond issuance plan this year. while consumer confidence was lower at 123.6
(prev: 124.3) during the month.
• FX reserve in November 2023 was higher at
USD138.1bn (prev: USD133.1bn) post-Global
Sukuk issuance.
Latest Policy Development and Important Thing to TRIM’s Expectation Going ahead
Watch • Entering the election period, we expect that CA
• BI maintained its BI7DRR at 6% (prev: 5%) in the number would be highly affected as political
November meeting, as USDIDR environment was spending and further normalization on
pretty stable due to Global Sukuk issuance sentiment. commodity prices would be in play, with
• The US PCE inflation dropped down to +3% y-y tendency to CA deficit region.
(cons: +3% y-y, prev: +3.4% y-y) in October 2023,
the lowest level since July 2021.
2
GLOBAL MACRO DATA
*As of Dec 11th, 2023

**unless otherwise stated
Recent Global Market Positioning (1)
Net 1 Month 3 Month 1 Month 3 Month

Long(Sho change in Net change in net change in change in
Long Short rt Net Open Long (Short long (short Net Open Net Open
pts Position Position Position) Interest Long/Short position) position) Interest Interest
USD 28,199 8,255 19,944 40,451 3.4 473 16,585 -773 3,872
10yr US treasury 482,555 2,967,974 -2,485,419 4,536,418 0.2 77,852 27,107 -89,818 -182,364
2yr US treasury 3,387,065 1,868,745 1,518,320 4,111,534 1.8 5,439 64,376 -46,407 449,593
Oil 349,661 180,671 168,990 1,650,437 1.9 -66,980 -130,332 -38,125 -52,693
EUR 235,684 83,324 152,360 756,615 2.8 63,304 16,129 58,991 2,352
GBP 4,800 16,565 -11,765 29,509 0.3 169 525 -341 -49
Gold 288,840 85,296 203,544 487,469 3.4 37,328 65,538 3,122 3,122
Emerging Market 144,579 131,525 13,054 994,036 1.1 10,515 -12,177 -14,337 509,689
(pts) (pts)
CFTC data on USD positioning -1,900,000
CFTC data on 10yr UST positioning
50000 116 -2,000,000
-2,100,000
40000
111
-2,200,000
30000 -2,300,000
106 -2,485,419
-2,400,000
20000
101 -2,500,000
10000 -2,600,000
96 -2,700,000
0
-2,800,000
91
-10000 -2,900,000
11/12/2022
11/01/2023
11/02/2023
11/03/2023
11/04/2023
11/05/2023
11/06/2023
11/07/2023
11/08/2023
11/09/2023
11/10/2023
11/11/2023
-20000 86
Sep-21
Sep-22
Sep-23
Mar-21
Nov-21
Mar-22
Mar-23
Jan-22
Nov-22
Nov-23
Jan-21
May-21
Jul-21
May-22
Jul-22
Jan-23
May-23
Jul-23
Net Long/Short Position in USD (LHS) Dollar Index 10yr UST net Long Position average stdev+1 stdev-1
Source: Bloomberg, Trimegah Research 4

Recent Global Market Positioning (2)
(pts)
300,000 CFTC data on Gold positioning (pts)
200,000
CFTC data on EM Equity positioning
203,544
250,000
150,000
200,000
100,000 13,054
150,000
50,000
100,000
0
50,000
-50,000
0
-100,000
08/11/2020
08/01/2021
08/03/2021
08/05/2021
08/07/2021
08/09/2021
08/11/2021
08/01/2022
08/03/2022
08/05/2022
08/07/2022
08/09/2022
08/11/2022
08/01/2023
08/03/2023
08/05/2023
08/07/2023
08/09/2023
08/11/2023
09/12/2020
09/03/2021
09/06/2021
09/09/2021
09/12/2021
09/03/2022
09/06/2022
09/09/2022
09/12/2022
09/03/2023
09/06/2023
09/09/2023
09/12/2023
Gold Net Long Position average stdev+1 stdev-1
EM Net Long Equity Position average stdev+1 stdev-1
1,800,000 CFTC data on 2yr UST positioning 380,000

CFTC data on Oil positioning
1,700,000 1,518,320
330,000
1,600,000
1,500,000
280,000
1,400,000
1,300,000
230,000
1,200,000
1,100,000
180,000
1,000,000
168,990
900,000 130,000
11/12/2022
11/01/2023
11/02/2023
11/03/2023
11/04/2023
11/05/2023
11/06/2023
11/07/2023
11/08/2023
11/09/2023
11/10/2023
11/11/2023
09/12/2022
09/01/2023
09/02/2023
09/03/2023
09/04/2023
09/05/2023
09/06/2023
09/07/2023
09/08/2023
09/09/2023
09/10/2023
09/11/2023
09/12/2023
2yr UST net Long position average stdev+1 stdev-1 Oil net Long Position average stdev+1 stdev-1

0.12
1.12
2.12
3.12
4.12
5.12
6.12
Source: Bloomberg, Trimegah Research

08/05/2022
22/05/2022
05/06/2022
19/06/2022
03/07/2022
17/07/2022
31/07/2022
14/08/2022
28/08/2022
Fed Fund Future
Fed Rate 2023

11/09/2022
25/09/2022
09/10/2022
23/10/2022
06/11/2022
20/11/2022
04/12/2022
18/12/2022
01/01/2023
4.32
3.53
5.33
3.71
15/01/2023
Fed Rate 2024

29/01/2023
12/02/2023
26/02/2023
12/03/2023
26/03/2023
09/04/2023
23/04/2023
07/05/2023
21/05/2023
04/06/2023
Fed Rate 2025
18/06/2023
02/07/2023
16/07/2023
30/07/2023
13/08/2023
27/08/2023
10/09/2023
24/09/2023
08/10/2023
Fed Rate 2026
22/10/2023
05/11/2023
19/11/2023
03/12/2023
6
Fed Fund Rate Expectation and Yield Curve
Sensitivity
2024
10-Y US T-bills yield

Sensitivity (%)
3.85 4.10 4.35 4.60 4.85 5.10 5.35 5.60 5.85 6.10 6.35
4.85 3.91 4.05 4.18 4.31 4.45 4.58 4.71 4.85 4.98 5.11 5.25
5.10 3.92 4.06 4.19 4.32 4.46 4.59 4.72 4.86 4.99 5.13 5.26
5.35 3.94 4.07 4.20 4.34 4.47 4.60 4.74 4.87 5.00 5.14 5.27
2023
5.60 3.95 4.08 4.22 4.35 4.48 4.62 4.75 4.88 5.02 5.15 5.28
5.85 3.96 4.09 4.23 4.36 4.50 4.63 4.76 4.90 5.03 5.16 5.30
6.10 3.97 4.11 4.24 4.37 4.51 4.64 4.77 4.91 5.04 5.17 5.31
6.35 3.99 4.12 4.25 4.39 4.52 4.65 4.79 4.92 5.05 5.19 5.32
6.60 4.00 4.13 4.27 4.40 4.53 4.67 4.80 4.93 5.07 5.20 5.33
Source: Trimegah Research 7

Change in Expectation (GDP Economic Forecast
for 2023 & 2024)
US GDP Economic Forecast China GDP Economic Forecast Indonesia GDP Economic Forecast
6.1 5.05 5
3 2.4 5
2.5 5.6 5.2 4.95 5
2 4.9
1.5 5.1 4.85
1 4.6 4.8
0.5 1.2 4.75
4.5
0 4.1 4.7
Mar-23
Oct-23
Dec-22
Nov-23
May-23
Dec-23
Jan-23
Apr-23
Jun-23
Jul-23
Sep-23
Feb-23
Aug-23
Sep-23
Mar-23
Oct-23
Dec-22
Nov-23
Dec-23
Jan-23
Apr-23
Jun-23
Jul-23
Feb-23
May-23
Aug-23
Dec-22
Nov-23
Dec-23
Apr-23
Oct-23
Mar-23
Jun-23
Jan-23
Feb-23
May-23
Jul-23
Aug-23
Sep-23
US 2023 US 2024 China 2023 China 2024 Indonesia 2023 Indonesia 2024
India GDP Economic Forecast Eurozone GDP Economic Forecast Thailand GDP Economic Forecast
2.0 4.0
7.5
7 1.5
7 3.5
6.35 1.0 0.6 3.5
6.5 3.0
6 0.5
0.5 2.5
5.5 0.0 2.5
-0.5 2.0
5
Mar-23
Oct-23
Nov-23
Dec-22
Dec-23
Jan-23
Apr-23
Feb-23
May-23
Jun-23
Jul-23
Aug-23
Sep-23
Dec-22
Nov-23
Dec-23
Apr-23
Oct-23
Mar-23
Jun-23
Jan-23
Feb-23
May-23
Jul-23
Aug-23
Sep-23
Mar-23
Oct-23
Dec-22
Nov-23
Jan-23
Dec-23
Apr-23
Feb-23
May-23
Jun-23
Jul-23
Sep-23
Aug-23
Eurozone 2023 Eurozone 2024 Thailand 2023 Thailand 2024

India 2023 India 2024
Malaysia GDP Economic Forecast Brazil GDP Economic Forecast Japan GDP Economic Forecast
4.7 4.5 3.5 2.0
4.5 3 3
2.5 1.5 1.7
4.3 1.6
4.0 2
4.1 1.5
3.9 1 1.0
3.7 0.5 0.9
3.5 0 0.5
Mar-23
Oct-23
Dec-22
Nov-23
Dec-23
Jan-23
Apr-23
May-23
Jun-23
Jul-23
Sep-23
Feb-23
Aug-23
Mar-23
Oct-23
Dec-22
Nov-23
Dec-23
Jan-23
Apr-23
Jun-23
Feb-23
May-23
Jul-23
Sep-23
Aug-23
Dec-22
Nov-23
Dec-23
Oct-23
Feb-23
Mar-23
Jun-23
Jan-23
Apr-23
May-23
Jul-23
Aug-23
Sep-23
Malaysia 2023 Malaysia 2024 Brazil 2023 Brazil 2024 Japan 2023 Japan 2024

Change in Expectation (CPI Inflation Forecast
for 2023 & 2024)
US CPI Inflation Forecast China CPI Inflation Forecast Indonesia CPI Inflation Forecast
4.5 4.1 2.5 4.75
4 2 4.25
3.5 3.7
2.7 1.5
3 1.5 3.75
1
2.5
0.5 3.25 3
2 0.4
1.5 0 2.75
Mar-23
Oct-23
Mar-23
Oct-23
Mar-23
Oct-23
Nov-23
Dec-23
Dec-22
Nov-23
Jul-23
Dec-23
Dec-22
Jul-23
Nov-23
Dec-23
Jan-23
Apr-23
May-23
Jun-23
Sep-23
Jan-23
Apr-23
Jan-23
Apr-23
Sep-23
Aug-23
Feb-23
May-23
Jun-23
Jul-23
Sep-23
Aug-23
Feb-23
May-23
Jun-23
Aug-23
Feb-23
India CPI Inflation Forecast Eurozone CPI Inlation Forecast Thailand CPI Inflation Forecast
6.9 6.6 6.8 3.0
5.5
6.4 5.8
2.5
4.8 1.9
5.9 5.4 3.8 2.6 2.0
5.4 2.8
4.9 1.5
1.8
1.4
4.4 0.8 1.0
Mar-23
Oct-23
Dec-22
Nov-23
Jun-23
Dec-23
Jan-23
Apr-23
Feb-23
May-23
Jul-23
Sep-23
Aug-23
Jun-23
Mar-23
Oct-23
Dec-22
Nov-23
Dec-23
Jan-23
Apr-23
Jul-23
Sep-23
Feb-23
May-23
Aug-23
Mar-23
Oct-23
Dec-22
Nov-23
Jun-23
Jul-23
Dec-23
Jan-23
Apr-23
Sep-23
Feb-23
May-23
Aug-23
India 2023 India 2024 Eurozone 2023 Eurozone 2024 Thailand 2023 Thailand 2024
Malaysia CPI Inflation Forecast Brazil CPI Inflation Forecast Japan CPI Inflation Forecast
3.2
3.2 5.8 3.4
3.0 5.3 2.9
2.8 2.6 4.6 2.2
4.8 2.4
2.6
4.3 1.9
2.4 2.5
2.2 3.8 1.4
3.3 4.0 0.9
2.0
1.8 2.8 0.4
Jun-23
Mar-23
Oct-23
Dec-22
Nov-23
Dec-23
Jan-23
Apr-23
Sep-23
Feb-23
May-23
Jul-23
Aug-23
Mar-23
Jul-23
Oct-23
Dec-22
Jan-23
Nov-23
Dec-23
Apr-23
Jun-23
Feb-23
May-23
Aug-23
Sep-23
Nov-23
Apr-23
Dec-22
Mar-23
Oct-23
Dec-23
May-23
Jun-23
Jan-23
Feb-23
Jul-23
Aug-23
Sep-23

Change in Expectation (Interest Rate Forecast
for 2023 & 2024)
US Interest Rate Forecast China Interest Rate Forecast Indonesia Interest Rate Forecast
6.00 5.50 7.00
6.05
4.35
5.00 6.00
5.00 5.40
4.00 4.45 4.30 4.30
4.00
3.00
4.25 3.00
2.00
2.00
4.20
1.00 1.00
0.00 4.15 0.00

Dec-22
Sep-23
Dec-23
Aug-23
Jan-23
Oct-23
Feb-23
Mar-23
Apr-23
May-23
Jun-23
Jul-23
Nov-23
Dec-22
Sep-23
Dec-23
Aug-23
Jan-23
Feb-23
Apr-23
Mar-23
May-23
Jun-23
Jul-23
Oct-23
Nov-23
Dec-22
Sep-23
Dec-23
Aug-23
Jan-23
Feb-23
Mar-23
Apr-23
May-23
Jun-23
Oct-23
Jul-23
Nov-23
India Interest Rate Forecast Eurozone Interest Rate Forecast Thailand Interest Rate Forecast
6.80 5.00 4.50 3.00
6.50 4.50 2.50
6.60
2.50
4.00
6.40 2.40
3.50 2.00
3.65
6.20 3.00
6.00 5.90 2.50 1.50
5.80 2.00
1.00
1.50
5.60
1.00 0.50
5.40 0.50
5.20 0.00 0.00
Dec-22
Sep-23
Dec-23
Aug-23
Jan-23
Feb-23
Apr-23
Mar-23
May-23
Jun-23
Jul-23
Oct-23
Nov-23
Dec-22
Sep-23
Dec-23
Dec-22
Sep-23
Dec-23
Oct-23
Oct-23
Aug-23
Jan-23
Feb-23
Apr-23
Aug-23
Jan-23
Feb-23
Apr-23
Mar-23
May-23
Jun-23
Jul-23
Nov-23
Mar-23
May-23
Jun-23
Jul-23
Nov-23
India 2023 India 2024 Eurozone 2023 Eurozone 2024 Thailand 2023 Thailand 2024
Malaysia Interest Rate Forecast Brazil Interest Rate Forecast Japan Interest Rate Forecast
3.40 14.00 0.12
0.10
3.30 11.75
0.10
12.00
3.20 0.08
10.00 9.10
3.10 3.00 0.06
3.00 8.00 0.04
2.90 2.95
6.00 0.02
2.80
0.00
2.70 4.00 0.00
-0.02
2.60
2.00 -0.04
2.50
2.40 0.00 -0.06
Dec-22
Sep-23
Dec-23
Aug-23
Jan-23
Feb-23
Mar-23
Apr-23
Oct-23
May-23
Jun-23
Jul-23
Nov-23
Dec-22
Sep-23
Dec-23
Aug-23
Oct-23
Jan-23
Feb-23
Mar-23
Apr-23
May-23
Jun-23
Jul-23
Nov-23
Dec-22
Sep-23
Dec-23
Nov-23
Aug-23
Jan-23
Feb-23
Apr-23
Oct-23
Mar-23
May-23
Jun-23
Jul-23

0
1
2
3
4
5
6
1.5
1.7
1.9
2.1
2.3
2.5
2.7
2.9
3.1
3.5
4
4.5
5
5.5
6
6.5
7
Dec-20
Dec-20 Dec-20
Feb-21
Feb-21 Feb-21
Apr-21
Apr-21 Apr-21
Jun-21
Jun-21 Jun-21
Aug-21
Aug-21 Aug-21
Oct-21
Oct-21 Oct-21
Dec-21
Dec-21 Dec-21
Feb-22
Feb-22 Feb-22

Apr-22
Apr-22 Apr-22
Jun-22
Rate
Jun-22 Jun-22
Aug-22 Aug-22 Aug-22
Rates Overnight
Oct-22 Oct-22 Oct-22
Dec-22 Dec-22 Dec-22
Feb-23 Feb-23 Feb-23
Apr-23 Apr-23 Apr-23

Federal Funds Target Rate - Upper Bound
Jun-23 Jun-23 Jun-23
Bank Negara Malaysia Money Mkt Weighted Avg

Reserve Bank of India Repurchase Effective Cut off

6.5
5.5
3
3.2
3.3
3.4
3.5
3.6
3.7
3.8
3.9
-0.1
0.4
0.9
1.4
1.9
2.4
2.9
3.4
3.9
4.4
4.9
11.5
13.5
15.5
1.5
3.5
5.5
7.5
9.5
Dec-20 Dec-20
Dec-20
Feb-21 Feb-21
Feb-21
Apr-21 Apr-21
Apr-21
Jun-21 Jun-21
Jun-21

Rate

Brazil Selic Target Rate

China Loan Prime Rate 1 Year

ECB Main Refinancing Operations Announcement

4.5

3.45
12.25
0
1
2
3
0.5
1.5
2.5
3.25
3.75
4.25
4.75
5.25
5.75
6.25
-0.12
-0.10
-0.08
-0.06
-0.04
-0.02
0.00
Benchmark Interest Rate Movement
Dec-20
Dec-20 Dec-20
Feb-21
Feb-21 Feb-21
Apr-21
Apr-21 Apr-21
Jun-21
Jun-21 Jun-21
Aug-21 Aug-21
Aug-21
Oct-21 Oct-21
Oct-21
Dec-21 Dec-21
Dec-21
Feb-22 Feb-22
Feb-22
Apr-22 Apr-22
Apr-22
Jun-22 Jun-22
Jun-22
Aug-22 Aug-22
Rate TONAR
Aug-22
Official Rates
(Announcement)

Bank Indonesia 7 Day Reverse Repo Rate

Bank of Japan Result Unsecured Overnight Call

Bank of Thailand Repurchase Market Rates 1 Day

2.5

-0.1
6
11
60.00
65.00
70.00
75.00
80.00
85.00
85.00
90.00
95.00
3.70
3.90
4.10
4.30
4.50
4.70
4.90
100.00
105.00
110.00
115.00
Mar-19 Mar-19 Mar-19
Sep-19 Sep-19 Sep-19

Mar-21 Mar-21
DXY Curncy
Mar-21
USDINR Curncy
USDMYR Curncy
USDINR
USDMYR
Dollar Index

Jun-22 Jun-22
Average
Jun-22
Average
Average
98.57
4.28
83.39
75.82
4.68
104.04
2.90
3.40
3.90
4.40
4.90
5.40
5.90
6.40
0.75
0.80
0.85
0.90
0.95
1.00
1.05
6.20
6.40
6.60
6.80
7.00
7.20
7.40

Sep-20 Sep-20
Currency Rate Movement
Sep-20
USDBRL Curncy
USDEUR Curncy
USDCNY Curncy

USDBRL
USDEUR
USDCNY
Sep-21 Sep-21
Sep-21
Dec-21 Dec-21
Dec-21
Mar-22 Mar-22
Mar-22
Jun-22
Jun-22 Jun-22
Sep-22
Average
Average
Average
Sep-22 Sep-22
0.90
Dec-22
Dec-22 Dec-22
4.90 Mar-23
Mar-23 Mar-23
Jun-23
Jun-23 Jun-23
Sep-23
Sep-23 Sep-23
6.81
Dec-23
Dec-23 Dec-23
7.18
4.93
0.93
12,500
13,000
13,500
14,000
14,500
15,000
15,500
16,000
16,500
29.00
30.00
31.00
32.00
33.00
34.00
35.00
36.00
37.00
38.00
39.00
100.00
110.00
120.00
130.00
140.00
150.00
160.00

USDJPY Curncy
USDIDR Curncy
USDTHB Curncy

USDJPY
USDIDR
USDTHB

Average
Average
Average

119.28

14,587
Dec-23 Dec-23
32.79
Dec-23
145.51
35.65
15,611
12
2.20
2.70
3.20
3.70
4.20
4.70
5.50
6.00
6.50
7.00
7.50
8.00
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
4.00
4.50
5.00
Dec-20

Dec-20 Dec-20
10yr US Govt Bond
10yr India Govt Bond

Sep-21
10yr Malaysia Govt Bond

Sep-21 Sep-21
10yr US Govt Bond
Mar-22
10yr India Govt Bond

Mar-22 Mar-22
10yr Malaysia Govt Bond

Jun-22
Jun-22 Jun-22
Sep-22
Sep-22 Sep-22
Average
Dec-22
Average
Dec-22 Dec-22
3.53
Average
Mar-23
Mar-23 Mar-23
Jun-23
Jun-23 Jun-23
Sep-23
6.73
Sep-23 Sep-23
2.29
Dec-23
Dec-23 Dec-23
7.28
4.25
3.73
10.00
12.00
14.00
16.00
-1.00
-0.50
6.00
8.00
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
2.40
2.50
2.60
2.70
2.80
2.90
3.00
3.10
3.20
3.30
3.40

10yr Brazil Govt Bond

10yr China Govt Bond
Sep-21
10yr Eurozone Govt Bond
Sep-21 Sep-21
Mar-22
10yr China Govt Bond
Mar-22 Mar-22
10yr Eurozone Govt Bond
Jun-22
Jun-22 Jun-22
Sep-22
Sep-22 Sep-22
9.81
Dec-22
Average
Average
Dec-22 Dec-22
Average
Mar-23
Mar-23 Mar-23
Jun-23
Jun-23 Jun-23
Sep-23
Sep-23 Sep-23
0.53
Dec-23
Dec-23 Dec-23
2.95
2.28
2.66
10.94
0.80
1.30
1.80
2.30
2.80
3.30
5.80
6.30
6.80
7.30
7.80
8.30
8.80
-0.40
-0.20
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00

10yr Government Bond Yield Movement

10yr Japan Govt Bond
10yr Thailand Govt Bond
Sep-21
10yr Indonesia Govt Bond
Sep-21 Sep-21
Mar-22
Mar-22 Mar-22
10yr Thailand Govt Bond
10yr Indonesia Govt Bond

Average

Average
Average

2.07
6.92

6.63
0.16
2.84
0.78
13
Global PMI Data
Markit US Manufacturing PMI SA Caixin China Manufacturing PMI SA Markit Indonesia Manufacturing PMI
65 60 SA
60 55 50.7
60
55 55
50 50
50 51.7
45 45
45 49.4 40
40 40
35
35 35 30
Dec-20
Nov-23
Oct-21
Mar-22
Jun-23
May-21
Aug-22
Jan-23
Jun-23
Oct-21
Mar-22
Dec-20
Nov-23
May-21
Jan-23
Aug-22
25
Dec-20
Oct-21
Mar-22
Aug-22
Jan-23
Jun-23
Nov-23
May-21
Markit India Manufacturing PMI SA JPMorgan Global Manufacturing PMI Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
SA 65 SA
60
60
55 60
50 55
55.5 55
45 50
50 43.1
40 45
35 45
48.8 40
30 40 35
25 35 30
Oct-21
Mar-22
Oct-21
Mar-22
Dec-20
Nov-23
Dec-20
Nov-23
Jun-23
May-21
Jan-23
Aug-22
May-21
Jan-23
Jun-23
Aug-22
Dec-20
Oct-21
Mar-22
Nov-23
May-21
Jan-23
Jun-23
Aug-22
Markit Thailand Manufacturing PMI Markit Malaysia Manufacturing PMI Markit Brazil Manufacturing PMI SA
SA SA 70
65 55 65
60
60 50 55
55 50
45
50 46.8 45
40 49.4
45 40
40 47.5 35 35
35 30 30
Jun-23
Jun-23
Oct-21
Mar-22
Oct-21
Mar-22
Dec-20
Nov-23
Dec-20
Nov-23
May-21
Jan-23
Jan-23
Aug-22
May-21
Aug-22
Oct-21
Mar-22
Dec-20
Nov-23
May-21
Jan-23
Jun-23
Aug-22

MYR/MT USD/t oz
1,500
2,500
3,500
4,500
5,500
6,500
7,500
8,500
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
Dec-18 Dec-18
Mar-19 Mar-19
Jun-19 Jun-19
Sep-19 Sep-19
Dec-19 Dec-19
Mar-20 Mar-20
Jun-20 Jun-20
Sep-20 Sep-20
CPO

Gold
Dec-20 Dec-20
Mar-21 Mar-21
CPO
GOLD
Jun-21 Jun-21
Sep-21 Sep-21
Dec-21 Dec-21
Average
Average
Mar-22 Mar-22
3,617
Jun-22 Jun-22
Sep-22 Sep-22
Dec-22 Dec-22
Mar-23 Mar-23
Jun-23 Jun-23
Sep-23 Sep-23
1,736
Dec-23 Dec-23
3,703
2,015
Commodity Prices
USD/MT USD/bbl
15
35
55
75
95
115
135
13,000
18,000
23,000
28,000
33,000
38,000
43,000
48,000
53,000
8,000
Dec-18
Dec-18 Mar-19
Mar-19 Jun-19
Jun-19 Sep-19
Sep-19
Dec-19
Dec-19
Mar-20
Mar-20
Jun-20
Jun-20
Sep-20
Sep-20
Dec-20
Nickel
Dec-20
Brent Oil
Mar-21
Mar-21
Jun-21
NICKEL
Jun-21
Sep-21
BRENT OIL
Sep-21
Dec-21
Dec-21
Mar-22
Mar-22
Average
72
Jun-22
Average
Jun-22
Sep-22
Sep-22
18,858
Dec-22
Dec-22
Mar-23
Mar-23
Jun-23
Jun-23
Sep-23
Sep-23
Dec-23
Dec-23
76.4
16,695
USD/MT USD/MT
40
90
140
190
240
290
340
390
440
14,000
19,000
24,000
29,000
34,000
39,000
44,000
49,000
Dec-18
Dec-18 Mar-19
Mar-19 Jun-19
Jun-19 Sep-19
Sep-19 Dec-19
Dec-19 Mar-20
Mar-20 Jun-20
Jun-20 Sep-20
Sep-20 Dec-20
Coal
Tin
Dec-20 Mar-21
Mar-21
TIN
Jun-21
COAL
Jun-21 Sep-21
Sep-21 Dec-21
Dec-21 Mar-22
Average
Average
Mar-22 Jun-22
24,965
Jun-22
Sep-22
157
Sep-22
Dec-22
Dec-22
Mar-23
Mar-23
Jun-23
Jun-23
Sep-23
Sep-23
Dec-23
Dec-23
153.7
24,442
15
Foreign Fund Flow in Selected Markets
Capital Flow (in USD mn) Jun-23 Jul-23 Aug-23 Sep-23 Oct-23 Nov-23 Dec-23 FY22 YTD
Equity -292.8 181.6 -1,318.7 -262.7 -496.3 -30.2 -55.7 1,408.0 -891.9
Indonesia
Bond 1,073.3 590.4 -535.3 -1,093.4 -804.8 1,504.5 364.5 992.1 5,008.5
Equity -291.1 313.2 31.2 143.4 -460.6 332.4 -35.3 -1,737.9 -605.0
Malaysia
Bond 337.9 1,655.4 -1,121.7 -114.3 -347.9 713.3 - 2,884.7 3,799.6
Equity 64,951.1 13,075.2 -11,288.5 -77,378.6 66,677.8 19,932.3 -2,440.4 61,757.1 142,596.2
Japan
Bond -7,574.7 -7,875.2 -15,780.7 -3,634.1 -15,167.3 10,047.0 -4,798.1 -66,203.6 -35,063.2
Equity 6,717.4 4,139.6 1,726.2 -2,273.1 -2,656.7 2,300.9 2,010.6 17,082.2 16,413.5
India
Bond 1,236.9 379.0 923.5 196.6 759.5 1,677.3 671.4 -3,017.8 6,743.4
Equity 51,214.4 6,251.8 77,434.6 -20,808.7 - - - -119,532.4 31,968.8
China
Bond -4,601.6 4,729.3 -2,549.7 -15,172.7 -6,700.2 -11,965.0 -1,604.2 -28,636.7 -116,581.1
Philippines Equity 97.4 333.6 -131.1 -464.4 -170.8 18.6 26.3 -2,117.0 -855.0
Equity -1,255.7 627.5 -569.5 -1,693.9 -2,497.5 3,257.1 192.5 -16,199.9 7,260.6
South Korea
Bond 12,690.5 5,046.1 3,886.3 4,047.2 3,106.0 2,220.8 443.9 90,472.1 57,517.2
Sri Lanka Equity -0.7 7.1 5.5 -4.7 1.6 2.7 0.5 -91.0 15.0
Taiwan Equity 625.0 -2,993.5 -4,548.7 -5,885.2 -4,956.9 8,361.0 -271.6 -26,626.3 1,300.2
Equity -263.2 -361.5 -442.8 -615.5 -430.8 -548.1 7.2 -599.9 -5,498.2
Thailand
Bond -269.3 958.4 -1,057.3 -617.5 458.5 474.0 -334.0 5,900.3 316.0
Vietnam Equity -23.3 -23.1 -66.4 -144.2 -65.4 -114.9 -137.4 -336.0 -583.2

Foreign Fund Flow in Selected Markets (in Graph)
14,000 10,000 30,000 200,000

12,000 8,000 3,799.6 25,000
20,000 16,413.5 150,000
10,000 6,000
8,000 15,000 100,000
4,000
6,000 5,008.5 10,000 6,743.4 57,517.2
2,000
4,000 5,000 50,000
0 7,260.6
2,000 0
-2,000 -5,000 0
0
-4,000 -605.0
-2,000 -10,000 -50,000
-4,000 -6,000 -15,000
-6,000 -891.9 -8,000 -20,000 -100,000
2013
2020
2017
2012
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2021
2022
2023
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
Indonesia Equity Flow Indonesia Bond Flow Malaysia Equity Flow Malaysia Bond Flow India Equity Flow India Bond Flow South Korea Equity Flow South Korea Bond Flow
35,000 500,000 3,000 400

30,000 300
400,000 2,000
25,000 200
20,000 300,000
1,000 100 15.0
15,000 200,000 142,596.2 0
10,000 0
100,000 -100
5,000 316.0
-1,000 -200
0 0 -855.0
-5,000 -300
-100,000 -35,063.2 -2,000
-10,000 -400
-15,000 -5,498.2 -200,000 -3,000 -500
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2022
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2023
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2019
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2020
2021
2022
2023
Thailand Equity Flow Thailand Bond Flow Japan Equity Flow Philippines Equity Flow Sri Lanka Equity Flow
20,000 3,000
2,000
10,000
1,300.2 1,000
0
0
-10,000 -1,000
-583.2
-2,000
-20,000
-3,000
-30,000
-4,000
-40,000 -5,000
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
Taiwan Equity Flow Vietnam Equity Flow

DOMESTIC ECONOMIC DATA
DEVELOPMENTS

Recent Important Economic Data
FX & Interest Rate Dec-22 Jan-23 Feb-23 Mar-23 Apr-23 May-23 Jun-23 Jul-23 Aug-23 Sep-23 Oct-23 Nov-23 Dec-23
USDIDR 15,583 15,482 15,134 15,450 14,886 14,722 14,840 15,153 15,219 15,330 15,700 15,695 15,611
7 Days Reverse Repo Rate (%) 5.50 5.75 5.75 5.75 5.75 5.75 5.75 5.75 5.75 5.75 6.00 6.00 -
BI Deposit Facility Rate (FASBI) (%) 4.75 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.25 5.25 -
BI Lending Facility Rate (%) 6.25 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.75 6.75 -
Time Deposit 3M (%) 4.19 4.34 4.41 4.42 4.44 4.51 4.5 4.59 4.63 4.73 4.82 - -
Working Capital Lending Rate (%) 8.60 8.75 8.89 8.95 8.92 8.93 8.93 8.95 8.96 8.99 - - -
INDONIA (prev: JIBOR ON) (%) 4.76 5.02 5.40 5.54 5.62 5.66 5.53 5.64 5.61 5.65 5.57 5.82 5.83
JIBOR 1W (%) 5.55 5.78 5.99 6.00 6.00 6.00 5.99 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.25 6.25
3yr ID Govt. Bond (%) 6.36 6.28 6.29 6.35 6.29 6.06 5.65 5.97 6.06 6.30 6.63 6.89 6.58
5yr ID Govt. Bond (%) 6.19 6.47 6.36 6.57 6.36 6.12 5.96 5.93 6.05 6.29 6.66 6.87 6.58
10yr ID Govt. Bond (%) 6.94 6.81 6.67 6.96 6.66 6.40 6.34 6.22 6.33 6.60 6.79 6.85 6.63
Foreign Reserve (USDbn) 137.2 139.4 140.3 145.2 144.2 139.3 137.5 137.7 137.1 134.9 133.1 138.1 -
Loan Growth (y-y) 10.98 10.23 10.44 9.84 8.08 9.45 7.75 8.43 8.93 8.74 8.69 - -
Deposit Growth (y-y) 9.36 8.49 9.09 7.19 6.98 6.93 6.37 7.19 6.42 6.45 3.91 - -
LDR (%) 80.54 81.36 81.66 82.83 83.30 84.48 85.10 85.31 85.69 86.11 85.98 - -
M1 Growth (y-y) 8.35 8.17 7.94 6.18 5.57 6.14 6.11 6.42 5.91 6.01 3.43 - -
M2 Growth (y-y) 9.53 8.47 6.58 4.82 3.43 3.38 3.90 4.07 3.81 4.09 0.15 - -
Inflation Dec-22 Jan-23 Feb-23 Mar-23 Apr-23 May-23 Jun-23 Jul-23 Aug-23 Sep-23 Oct-23 Nov-23 Dec-23
Inflation (y-y) 5.51 5.28 5.47 4.97 4.33 4.00 3.52 3.08 3.27 2.28 2.56 2.86 -
Core Inflation (y-y) 3.36 3.27 3.09 2.94 2.83 2.66 2.58 2.43 2.18 2.00 1.91 1.87 -
Volatile Inflation (y-y) 5.61 5.71 7.62 5.83 3.74 3.28 1.20 -0.03 2.42 3.62 5.54 7.59 -
Administered Inflation (y-y) 13.34 12.28 12.24 11.56 10.32 9.52 9.21 8.42 8.05 1.99 2.12 2.01 -
Trade Balance (USDmn) Dec-22 Jan-23 Feb-23 Mar-23 Apr-23 May-23 Jun-23 Jul-23 Aug-23 Sep-23 Oct-23 Nov-23 Dec-23
Total Exports 23,828 22,324 21,382 23,416 19,284 21,707 20,601 20,862 21,998 20,747 22,148 - -
Non Oil & Gas Exports 22,355 20,836 20,195 22,078 18,025 20,398 19,342 19,635 20,679 19,342 20,777 - -
Oil & Gas Exports 1,473 1,488 1,187 1,338 1,259 1,309 1,260 1,227 1,319 1,405 1,372 - -
Total Imports 19,863 18,443 15,919 20,588 15,348 21,280 17,151 19,570 18,880 17,342 18,673 - -
Non Oil & Gas Imports 16,662 15,537 13,513 17,573 12,393 18,145 14,928 16,438 16,218 14,013 15,466 - -
Oil & Gas Imports 3,201 2,906 2,407 3,015 2,955 3,135 2,222 3,132 2,662 3,329 3,207 - -
Oil & Gas Trade Balance -1,728 -1,418 -1,220 -1,677 -1,696 -1,827 -963 -1,905 -1,343 -1,924 -1,835 - -
Non Oil & Gas Trade Balance 5,693 5,299 6,682 4,505 5,633 2,254 4,413 3,197 4,461 5,329 5,311 - -
Trade Balance 3,965 3,881 5,462 2,828 3,937 427 3,451 1,292 3,118 3,405 3,476 - -
Source: Bank Indonesia, BPS, Bloomberg, CEIC, Trimegah Research 19

Yearly GDP summary by component (1)
Figure 1. GDP Summary

(in % y-y) 4Q20 1Q21 2Q21 3Q21 4Q21 1Q22 2Q22 3Q22 4Q22 1Q23 2Q23 3Q23
Nominal GDP y-y (USD) -4.34 1.69 17.73 13.56 15.42 12.14 16.09 12.80 4.20 5.89 4.45 2.61
Nominal GDP y-y (IDR) -2.17 1.26 13.20 11.02 14.43 13.49 17.23 17.09 13.70 12.50 6.71 4.52
Real GDP y-y -2.17 -0.69 7.08 3.53 5.03 5.02 5.46 5.73 5.01 5.04 5.17 4.94
Consumption y-y -3.61 -2.21 5.96 1.02 3.56 4.34 5.51 5.39 4.48 4.54 5.22 5.06
Investment y-y -6.17 -0.21 7.52 3.76 4.49 4.08 3.09 4.98 3.33 2.11 4.63 5.77
Govt Exp y-y 1.93 2.57 8.22 0.65 5.29 -6.62 -4.63 -2.55 -4.77 3.34 10.57 -3.76
Export y-y -7.45 2.17 28.41 20.74 22.24 14.22 16.40 19.41 14.93 11.94 -2.97 -4.26
Import y-y -17.64 5.21 33.20 31.08 32.61 16.04 12.72 25.37 6.25 3.69 -3.06 -6.18
Figure 2. Consumption Summary

F&B, Other than Restaurant -1.39 -2.28 4.16 0.78 3.24 3.58 4.09 2.65 3.38 3.46 3.85 4.07
App, Footwear & Maintenance -4.09 -2.69 1.66 -0.46 1.23 6.47 4.34 4.41 2.04 3.79 7.02 3.59
Equipments 0.72 1.29 2.09 2.28 3.09 3.22 3.31 2.30 2.37 2.77 3.78 3.77
Health & Education 0.64 0.30 1.04 2.43 2.99 2.15 4.27 1.04 2.28 2.58 5.51 4.23
Transportation & Comm -9.45 -4.23 10.47 -0.21 5.34 7.04 9.68 12.87 8.05 7.84 7.53 7.61
Restaurant & Hotel -7.28 -4.15 16.38 2.44 2.83 4.21 6.61 9.12 6.41 5.88 6.75 6.52
Household: Others -0.88 -1.40 4.57 1.48 2.84 2.65 3.56 1.66 2.98 2.69 3.72 3.04
Consumption (C) -3.61 -2.21 5.96 1.02 3.56 4.34 5.51 5.39 4.48 4.54 5.22 5.06
Figure 3. Investment Summary

Buildings & Structures -6.63 -0.74 4.36 3.36 2.48 2.58 0.92 0.07 0.11 0.08 3.32 6.31
Machine & Equipment -7.56 3.48 19.00 11.49 13.46 19.17 16.30 36.46 18.36 4.62 7.67 -1.01
Vehicles -6.52 2.08 42.43 9.04 3.62 0.27 6.96 17.14 17.08 24.09 15.50 21.27
Other Equipments -3.77 -4.88 36.69 9.97 3.44 6.04 -4.31 0.11 -2.66 -5.26 -5.29 -5.64
Cultivated Biological Resources 3.44 -1.10 1.06 -5.28 9.96 3.16 3.97 1.95 0.27 3.34 5.62 2.05
Intellectual Property Products -8.40 0.92 4.17 -3.76 19.35 -5.73 6.98 6.23 12.67 5.06 9.28 7.74
Investment (I) -6.17 -0.21 7.52 3.76 4.49 4.08 3.09 4.98 3.33 2.11 4.63 5.77
Source: BPS, Trimegah Research 20

Yearly GDP summary by component (2)
Figure 4. Export Summary

Goods (Indonesia) -1.85 7.51 29.27 21.32 22.63 14.01 14.31 16.57 12.73 8.49 -5.56 -6.91
Goods: Non-Oil & Gas (Indonesia) -2.48 6.26 28.94 22.49 24.34 17.11 16.70 17.53 13.99 7.58 -6.11 -7.72
Goods: Oil & Gas (Indonesia) 4.34 19.79 32.18 9.94 6.92 -13.08 -6.41 6.18 -0.70 19.27 0.38 2.89
Services (Indonesia) -54.03 -49.87 11.47 8.92 15.32 18.52 64.00 84.14 56.40 81.30 38.14 33.82
Exports (X) -7.45 2.17 28.41 20.74 22.24 14.22 16.40 19.41 14.93 11.94 -2.97 -4.26
Figure 5. Import Summary

Goods -14.13 8.85 32.62 32.54 34.19 15.75 10.15 21.99 3.47 0.37 -5.57 -8.00
Goods: Non-Oil & Gas -11.70 12.10 31.36 35.87 33.88 17.08 11.02 17.41 1.99 -0.65 -6.59 -8.66
Goods: Oil & Gas -26.46 -6.73 39.99 13.02 36.07 8.08 5.35 54.29 12.29 6.72 0.36 -4.47
Services -38.16 -19.16 38.89 19.03 19.84 18.65 36.69 56.25 31.53 32.92 15.77 6.82
Import (I) -17.64 5.21 33.20 31.08 32.61 16.04 12.72 25.37 6.25 3.69 -3.06 -6.18

Yearly GDP summary by industry (1)
GDP by Industry
Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (AFF) 2.64 3.48 0.56 1.44 2.33 1.16 1.68 1.95 4.51 0.43 2.02 1.46
Mining & Quarrying (MQ) -1.20 -2.02 5.22 7.78 5.15 3.82 4.01 3.22 6.46 4.92 5.01 6.95
Manufacturing Industry (Mfg) -3.14 -1.38 6.58 3.68 4.92 5.07 4.01 4.83 5.64 4.43 4.88 5.20
Electricity & Gas Supply (EG) 0.95 1.02 1.09 1.04 1.08 1.07 1.09 1.08 1.02 1.03 1.03 1.05
Water Supply;Sewerage, Waste & Recycling Mgt 4.98 5.46 5.78 4.56 4.14 1.35 4.46 4.26 2.84 5.69 4.78 4.49
Construction (Indonesia) -5.67 -0.79 4.42 3.84 3.91 4.83 1.02 0.63 1.61 0.32 5.23 6.39
Wholesales and Retail Trade, Repairs (WR) -3.66 -1.28 9.50 5.12 5.54 5.73 4.43 5.37 6.55 4.92 5.26 5.08
Transportation & Storage (TS) -13.42 -13.09 25.10 -0.72 7.93 15.79 21.27 25.80 16.99 15.93 15.28 14.74
Accommodation & Food Beverages Activity (AFB) -8.91 -7.28 21.54 -0.14 4.98 6.58 9.80 17.83 13.81 11.55 9.89 10.90
Information & Communication 10.99 8.72 6.90 5.54 6.24 7.15 8.06 6.95 8.75 7.13 8.05 8.52
Financial & Insurance Activity (FI) 2.37 -2.97 8.33 4.29 -2.59 1.64 1.50 0.87 3.76 4.45 2.85 5.24
Real Estate 1.25 0.94 2.82 3.42 3.94 3.78 2.16 0.63 0.39 0.37 0.96 2.21
Business Services -7.02 -6.10 9.94 -0.59 0.89 5.96 7.92 10.79 10.42 6.37 9.59 9.37
Public Admin, Defense & Social Security -1.56 -2.24 9.94 -9.95 0.99 -1.29 -1.52 12.48 1.78 2.09 8.15 -6.23
Education Services 1.33 -1.54 5.88 -4.43 0.72 -1.41 -1.06 4.46 0.42 1.02 5.43 -2.07
Human Health & Social Work Activity 16.53 3.38 11.68 14.04 12.16 4.52 6.50 -1.71 2.47 4.77 8.27 2.92
Other Services -4.84 -5.15 11.97 -0.30 3.35 8.25 9.26 9.13 11.14 8.90 11.89 11.14
Gross Value Added at Basic Price -1.83 -0.95 7.03 2.99 4.18 4.59 4.24 5.22 5.73 4.29 5.58 5.21
Taxes Minus Subsidies of Products -9.16 7.02 8.36 18.26 24.06 16.96 38.48 18.03 -8.43 23.61 -2.97 -0.85
Agriculture sector breakdown

Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (AFF) 2.64 3.48 0.56 1.44 2.33 1.16 1.68 1.95 4.51 0.43 2.02 1.46
AFF: Agri, Livestock, Hunt & Services (ALHS) 3.71 5.37 -1.23 0.68 0.21 1.56 1.59 1.32 5.56 0.45 0.23 0.03
AFF: ALHS: Farm Food Crops 10.73 12.42 -7.77 -5.55 -1.92 -0.08 2.55 -5.41 4.70 -3.03 -3.32 -1.47
AFF: ALHS: Horticulture Crops 7.85 3.01 1.68 -5.35 4.04 3.67 1.56 5.92 5.91 -2.68 -0.77 3.41
AFF: ALHS: Plantation Crops 1.14 2.17 0.32 8.33 2.28 -0.34 0.27 2.35 4.18 4.66 2.93 -1.10
AFF: ALHS: Livestock -1.85 2.09 6.71 -2.49 -5.26 6.82 2.88 6.19 9.61 0.81 1.76 2.66
AFF: ALHS: Agri & Hunting Services 3.24 5.43 -0.59 1.09 -0.08 1.58 1.84 1.48 6.37 0.84 0.30 -0.43
AFF: Forestry & Logging -5.41 -6.58 -1.45 3.32 4.80 2.07 -1.06 -3.77 -1.71 1.81 0.98 5.31
AFF: Fisheries 1.06 -1.31 9.69 4.55 8.99 -0.64 2.73 6.38 2.62 0.03 9.93 6.78

Transportation sector breakdown

Transportation & Storage (TS) -13.42 -13.09 25.10 -0.72 7.93 15.79 21.27 25.80 16.99 15.93 15.28 14.74
TS: Railways -45.6 -45.0 67.2 -7.9 20.7 43.0 56.9 126.6 61.9 51.1 19.4 16.6
TS: Road -3.5 -4.4 18.2 3.3 3.6 6.9 9.8 8.7 9.5 7.9 10.4 10.4
TS: Sea -1.2 -4.1 16.4 0.7 0.9 -0.1 4.6 6.0 9.5 19.0 18.3 17.6
Ts: Inland Water -12.3 -18.4 6.6 -4.7 17.7 41.9 100.9 91.6 50.6 40.1 7.9 5.0
TS: Air -53.8 -52.3 137.7 -19.7 19.3 53.2 57.7 144.4 44.1 41.1 32.9 32.7
TS: Storage & Support; Postal & Courier -13.1 -15.9 33.6 -8.6 20.2 40.9 46.0 57.0 24.3 22.9 20.9 18.8
Financial sector breakdown

By Industry 4Q20 1Q21 2Q21 3Q21 4Q21 1Q22 2Q22 3Q22 4Q22 1Q23 2Q23 3Q23
Financial & Insurance Activity (FI) 2.37 -2.97 8.33 4.29 -2.59 1.64 1.50 0.87 3.76 4.45 2.85 5.24
FI: Monetary Intermediation Services 5.92 -3.76 14.63 6.47 -4.46 2.07 2.36 0.68 4.74 6.50 2.91 7.39
FI: Insurance and Pension Funding -1.07 2.23 -0.09 1.15 -0.40 -0.51 -1.68 -0.01 -1.69 -0.66 1.33 -0.35
FI: Other Financial Services -6.34 -8.23 -2.19 0.20 1.03 3.23 2.66 2.97 8.94 4.05 5.67 5.72
FI: Other Activities Auxiliary to Fin Services 3.37 5.85 5.23 5.07 4.61 1.03 1.46 1.15 -1.06 -1.37 -2.07 -1.92
Real Estate 1.25 0.94 2.82 3.42 3.94 3.78 2.16 0.63 0.39 0.37 0.96 2.21
Business Services -7.02 -6.10 9.94 -0.59 0.89 5.96 7.92 10.79 10.42 6.37 9.59 9.37
Public Admin, Defense & Social Security -1.56 -2.24 9.94 -9.95 0.99 -1.29 -1.52 12.48 1.78 2.09 8.15 -6.23
Education Services 1.33 -1.54 5.88 -4.43 0.72 -1.41 -1.06 4.46 0.42 1.02 5.43 -2.07
Human Health & Social Work Activity 16.53 3.38 11.68 14.04 12.16 4.52 6.50 -1.71 2.47 4.77 8.27 2.92
Other Services -4.84 -5.15 11.97 -0.30 3.35 8.25 9.26 9.13 11.14 8.90 11.89 11.14
Gross Value Added at Basic Price -1.83 -0.95 7.03 2.99 4.18 4.59 4.24 5.22 5.73 4.29 5.58 5.21
Taxes Minus Subsidies of Products -9.16 7.02 8.36 18.26 24.06 16.96 38.48 18.03 -8.43 23.61 -2.97 -0.85
Mining sector breakdown

Mining & Quarrying (MQ) -1.20 -2.02 5.22 7.78 5.15 3.82 4.01 3.22 6.46 4.92 5.01 6.95
MQ: Crude Petroleum, Gas & Geothermal -6.8 -6.9 -5.1 -2.2 -3.4 -6.3 -3.8 -5.2 -4.0 1.0 0.9 1.1
MQ: Coal & Lignite -5.9 -7.0 13.3 15.0 6.6 3.6 4.3 9.4 14.8 17.4 10.4 6.5
MQ: Metal Ores 33.1 24.5 18.1 24.7 24.4 25.8 22.4 9.0 16.2 -5.4 1.1 17.8
MQ: Others -1.2 -0.6 1.8 2.5 4.1 4.8 1.0 1.6 2.0 1.1 6.1 6.9

Manufacturing sector breakdown
Manufacturing Industry (Mfg) -3.14 -1.38 6.58 3.68 4.92 5.07 4.01 4.83 5.64 4.43 4.88 5.20
Mfg: Coal; Oil & Gas Refinery -12.0 -7.7 3.4 -0.8 8.6 1.1 0.8 4.3 8.7 1.9 8.2 7.2
Mfg: Food & Beverages 1.7 2.4 2.9 3.5 1.2 3.7 3.7 3.6 8.7 5.3 4.6 3.3
Mfg: Tobacco Processing -10.8 -9.6 -1.1 0.7 6.0 1.0 0.0 -2.9 -7.1 -7.3 2.5 13.3
Mfg: Textile & Wearing Apparel -10.5 -13.3 -4.5 -3.3 5.9 12.4 13.7 8.1 3.6 -0.1 -1.7 -2.7
Mfg: Leather, Leather Products & Footwear -6.1 1.7 3.3 18.1 9.3 8.3 13.1 13.4 3.2 -2.7 -0.4 -3.0
Mfg: Wood & Artcls; Woven Bamboo-Rattan -4.4 -8.5 -6.1 -1.2 1.1 8.3 5.4 -4.3 -6.2 -6.2 -1.9 7.5
Mfg: Paper & Prod, Printing & Reproduction -3.0 -2.7 -4.0 -5.4 0.6 2.9 3.9 6.6 1.6 2.2 4.5 5.5
Mfg: Chemical,Pharmacy & Traditional Medicines 8.5 11.5 9.1 9.7 8.3 6.5 2.1 -3.5 -1.8 -3.5 -1.4 4.5
Mfg: Rubber and Product of Rubber and Plastics 0.2 3.8 11.7 -2.8 -7.5 -12.1 -3.2 -0.3 0.3 1.7 -7.2 -4.3
Mfg: Non-Metallic Quarrying -12.5 -7.3 8.1 3.0 0.5 1.4 -4.9 -2.0 -2.3 -2.1 1.4 7.2
Mfg: Basic Metals 11.5 7.7 18.0 9.5 11.3 7.9 15.8 20.2 15.1 15.5 11.5 10.9
Mfg: Metal;Computer,Electronic,Optic&Electric -2.1 -4.1 6.7 -8.1 -0.5 6.8 0.3 12.6 7.6 12.8 17.3 13.7
Mfg: Machinery and Equipment -7.4 3.2 16.4 16.3 11.0 9.9 11.2 17.7 7.0 1.0 0.0 1.9
Mfg: Transport Equipment -19.0 -10.9 45.7 27.8 22.6 14.2 7.3 10.3 10.9 17.3 9.7 7.3
Mfg: Furniture -1.7 8.0 7.2 7.0 10.4 4.4 -0.2 -3.9 -8.0 -8.4 -2.7 -2.6
Mfg: Oth Mfg, Repair & Installation Machinery 5.5 1.2 0.9 -6.5 -1.8 1.9 3.9 8.8 9.6 1.7 -1.1 -3.0
(real gdp % y-y)

(real gdp % y-y)
12
12
7
7
22
-3
-3
-8
-8 Agriculture, Mining & Quarrying Manufacturing Electricity & Gas Water Construction Wholesales and Transportation & Accommodation & Information & Financial & Real Estate Business Services Public Admin, Education Services Human Health & Other Services
Forestry and (MQ) Industry (Mfg) Supply (EG) Supply;Sewerage, (Indonesia) Retail Trade, Storage (TS) Food Beverages Communication Insurance Activity Defense & Social Social Work Activity
Agriculture, Mining & Manufacturing Electricity & Gas Water Construction Wholesales and Transportation & Accommodation & Information & Financial & Real Estate Business Services Public Admin, Education Services Human Health & Other Services
Fisheries (AFF) Waste & Recycling Repairs (WR) Activity (AFB) (FI) Security
Forestry and Quarrying (MQ) Industry (Mfg) Supply (EG) Supply;Sewerage,
Mgt (Indonesia) Retail Trade, Storage (TS) Food Beverages Communication Insurance Activity Defense & Social Social Work
Fisheries (AFF) Waste & Recycling Repairs (WR) Activity (AFB) (FI) Security Activity
Mgt 1Q23 2Q23 3Q23
1Q23 2Q23 3Q23

GDP deflator y-y from 1998-2023
(%)
100
GDP deflator growth y-y reached
negative region at -0.37 in
80
3Q23, due to plummeting input
prices, especially commodity.
60
40
20
0
-0.37
-20
Mar-22
Sep-99
Sep-02
Sep-05
Sep-08
Sep-11
Sep-14
Sep-17
Sep-20
Sep-23
Mar-98
Dec-98
Mar-01
Dec-01
Mar-04
Dec-04
Jun-06
Mar-07
Dec-07
Mar-10
Dec-10
Mar-13
Dec-13
Mar-16
Dec-16
Mar-19
Dec-19
Dec-22
Jun-00
Jun-03
Jun-09
Jun-12
Jun-15
Jun-18
Jun-21
GDP deflator growth y-y
Source: BPS, CEIC, Trimegah Research 25

Balance of Payment Summary
USDbn 4Q20 1Q21 2Q21 3Q21 4Q21 1Q22 2Q22 3Q22 4Q22 1Q23 2Q23 3Q23
Goods Balance 10.0 7.6 8.3 15.4 12.4 11.3 16.8 17.6 17.0 14.7 10.1 10.3
Service Balance -3.10 -3.45 -3.66 -3.53 -3.96 -4.37 -5.02 -5.33 -5.53 -4.57 -4.73 -4.11
Primary Income -7.44 -6.75 -8.02 -8.27 -8.91 -7.87 -9.35 -9.08 -9.63 -8.63 -9.16 -8.49
Secondary Income 1.43 1.43 1.46 1.42 1.95 1.49 1.52 1.41 1.95 1.48 1.54 1.46
Current Account Balance 0.85 -1.14 -1.88 5.02 1.51 0.55 3.95 4.63 3.75 2.96 -2.21 -0.86
CA Balance (% of GDP) 0.31 -0.41 -0.65 1.67 0.48 0.18 1.17 1.36 1.14 0.89 -0.63 -0.25
Capital Account 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.06 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.45 0.00 0.00 0.01
Direct Investment 4.35 4.52 5.39 3.48 3.89 4.65 6.62 3.48 3.42 4.29 3.97 2.77
Portfolio Investment 1.95 4.92 3.99 1.20 -5.02 -3.18 -3.61 -3.12 -1.72 3.03 -2.63 -3.13
Other Investment -7.26 -3.61 -7.85 2.63 -1.06 -3.39 -4.78 -5.65 -1.75 -3.30 -6.20 0.07
Capital & Fin Account -0.93 5.84 1.54 7.32 -2.13 -1.92 -1.78 -5.28 0.40 4.02 -4.85 -0.28
Balance of Payment -0.16 4.06 -0.45 10.69 -0.84 -1.82 2.39 -1.30 4.73 6.52 -7.37 -1.46
Primary Balance 5.20 3.38 3.51 8.50 5.40 5.20 10.56 8.11 7.17 7.25 1.77 1.91
Fiscal Balance -18.46 -10.18 -9.64 -11.73 -22.65 0.72 4.35 -0.85 -33.50 8.43 1.59 -5.55
Private Sector Balance 19.31 9.04 7.76 16.75 24.16 -0.17 -0.40 5.48 37.24 -5.47 -3.80 4.69
National Savings to GDP (%) 33.30 32.17 30.03 33.27 33.30 32.46 31.16 32.74 33.43 32.27 29.20 31.38
Investment to GDP (%) 32.99 32.58 30.68 31.60 32.82 32.28 29.99 31.37 32.30 31.38 29.83 31.62
Fiscal Balance to GDP (%) -6.76 -3.63 -3.33 -3.90 -7.18 0.23 1.29 -0.25 -10.19 2.53 0.45 -1.60
Private Sector Balance to GDP (%) 7.07 3.22 2.68 5.57 7.66 -0.05 -0.12 1.61 11.33 -1.64 -1.08 1.35
GDP Growth Sensitivity:

3% to GDP CA Balance 3.39 4.73 4.44 4.95 4.97 4.99 4.85 4.60
2.5% to GDP CA Balance 3.45 4.81 4.52 5.03 5.05 5.08 4.93 4.68
2.0% to GDP CA Balance 3.51 4.89 4.59 5.12 5.14 5.16 5.02 4.76
1.5% to GDP CA Balance 3.56 4.97 4.67 5.20 5.22 5.25 5.10 4.84
1.0% to GDP CA Balance 3.62 5.05 4.74 5.29 5.30 5.33 5.18 4.92
Source: Bank Indonesia, Trimegah Research 26

Fiscal Balance-to-GDP vs. Private Balance-to-
GDP (12M Trailing)
8.0 Leverage
down Leverage
6.0 up
4.0
2.4
2.0
(%)
0.0
0.3
-2.0
-2.1
-4.0
-6.0
-8.0
4Q17
1Q19
1Q15
2Q15
3Q15
4Q15
1Q16
2Q16
3Q16
4Q16
1Q17
2Q17
3Q17
1Q18
2Q18
3Q18
4Q18
2Q19
3Q19
4Q19
1Q20
2Q20
3Q20
4Q20
1Q21
2Q21
3Q21
4Q21
1Q22
2Q22
3Q22
4Q22
1Q23
2Q23
3Q23
Fiscal Balance to GDP (Annualized) Private Sector Balance to GDP (Annualized) CA to GDP (Annualized)

Indonesia’ Current Account Balance
6,000.0 3.0
4,000.0 2.0
2,000.0
1.0
0.0
0.0
(USD mn)
-2,000.0
(%)
-1.0
-4,000.0 -859.6
-0.2 -2.0
-6,000.0
-3.0
-8,000.0
-10,000.0 -4.0
-12,000.0 -5.0
2Q17
1Q19
1Q13
2Q13
3Q13
4Q13
1Q14
2Q14
3Q14
4Q14
1Q15
2Q15
3Q15
4Q15
1Q16
2Q16
3Q16
4Q16
1Q17
3Q17
4Q17
1Q18
2Q18
3Q18
4Q18
2Q19
3Q19
4Q19
1Q20
2Q20
3Q20
4Q20
1Q21
2Q21
3Q21
4Q21
1Q22
2Q22
3Q22
4Q22
1Q23
2Q23
3Q23
Current Account CA to GDP (non-annualized)

Indonesia’s Saving Investment Gap
33.5 3.0
33.0
2.0
32.5
1.0
32.0 0.3
31.5 0.0
31.5
(%)
31.0 31.3-1.0
30.5
-2.0
30.0
-3.0
29.5
29.0 -4.0
1Q14
2Q18
4Q20
2Q23
4Q12
1Q13
2Q13
3Q13
4Q13
2Q14
3Q14
4Q14
1Q15
2Q15
3Q15
4Q15
1Q16
2Q16
3Q16
4Q16
1Q17
2Q17
3Q17
4Q17
1Q18
3Q18
4Q18
1Q19
2Q19
3Q19
4Q19
1Q20
2Q20
3Q20
1Q21
2Q21
3Q21
4Q21
1Q22
2Q22
3Q22
4Q22
1Q23
3Q23
CA to GDP (Annualized) (RHS) Investment to GDP (Annualized) Savings to GDP (Annualized)

Government Budget Realization
Nov-22 Dec-22 Jan-23 Feb-23 Mar-23 Apr-23 May-23 Jun-23 Jul-23 Aug-23 Sep-23 Oct-23 10M21 10M22 10M23
Indonesia Gov Budget Realization
(in IDR tn)
Tax revenue 144.6 185.5 186.3 146.9 171.3 278.2 166.0 156.9 153.3 159.6 164.8 161.3 1,159.4 1,704.5 1,744.6
Oil & Gas 4.7 5.1 8.0 4.7 5.0 14.6 4.6 4.0 4.4 4.2 4.8 4.7 41.0 68.0 59.0
Non-Oil & Gas 67.7 68.3 78.3 58.8 88.9 185.0 76.0 78.1 71.6 71.6 63.5 65.1 490.6 784.4 836.8
VAT 46.2 71.7 74.6 53.7 57.4 54.3 60.6 56.2 60.8 30.0 89.1 62.5 396.2 569.8 599.2
Land & Building, Others 1.3 9.7 0.4 0.1 0.1 -0.1 0.3 1.0 1.5 1.4 12.6 3.1 16.1 20.0 20.4
Excises Duties 17.9 31.2 18.9 24.4 13.6 17.7 18.2 13.1 9.6 16.3 18.8 19.2 148.8 177.8 169.8
Other 0.8 -6.7 0.9 0.5 0.9 2.1 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.6 9.6 6.1 8.3
Import duties 5.1 5.3 4.1 3.8 4.4 3.5 4.6 3.8 4.2 4.5 4.0 4.5 30.8 40.7 41.4
Export tax 0.9 1.1 1.2 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.0 0.2 0.6 0.9 1.3 1.6 26.1 37.8 9.7
Non Tax 50.8 68.3 45.9 40.5 56.3 75.1 42.7 41.6 53.4 47.3 48.7 42.7 349.2 476.5 494.2
Oil & Gas 18.9 12.4 11.6 7.0 12.7 9.6 10.2 9.0 8.8 8.1 10.6 10.2 70.7 117.2 97.8
Non-Oil & Gas 16.3 17.7 14.8 14.8 14.7 13.3 11.1 9.6 9.2 9.8 9.2 10.3 40.5 86.1 116.8
Profit Transfer from SOE 0.0 0.0 4.6 0.0 0.0 36.2 0.9 0.7 17.8 5.3 5.2 3.4 30.0 40.6 74.1
Other 11.7 23.1 14.4 13.3 16.6 12.6 12.7 13.4 13.1 12.9 12.0 12.4 111.5 161.5 133.4
General Service Agency Revenue 3.9 7.8 0.4 5.6 12.2 3.3 8.0 8.9 4.5 11.1 11.7 6.3 96.4 71.1 72.0
Others 0.6 4.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.7 1.4 0.6 1.4
Total Revenue 195.9 258.3 232.2 187.4 227.6 353.4 208.8 198.6 206.9 207.1 213.7 204.5 1,510.0 2,181.6 2,240.1
Tax (exclude custom and duties) 120.7 147.9 70.9 209.1 152.3 256.0 142.1 139.9 138.9 137.8 140.8 136.0 953.6 1,448.2 1,523.7
Custom and duties 23.9 37.7 72.7 -19.5 19.0 22.3 23.9 17.0 14.4 21.8 24.0 25.3 205.8 256.4 220.9
Personal 31.6 29.8 32.6 28.1 30.5 51.1 31.3 53.6 31.3 29.4 30.7 32.0 330.3 341.0 350.6
Material 46.8 83.4 10.2 16.7 31.3 26.1 29.4 33.9 30.1 34.2 33.6 37.6 362.0 295.9 283.1
Capex 28.8 87.5 2.6 7.7 13.2 12.4 13.4 12.7 21.0 17.1 27.2 28.4 137.3 124.3 155.7
Interest 46.9 23.5 23.1 27.2 50.0 39.2 46.6 29.9 25.0 33.9 47.1 44.0 282.0 315.9 366.0
Subsidy 21.4 46.9 10.7 13.6 13.2 24.5 13.1 20.7 16.6 16.1 28.5 20.2 144.4 184.5 177.2
Social Assistance 29.3 8.3 3.9 5.7 26.3 21.2 5.4 11.1 4.5 19.1 7.4 12.2 131.5 123.9 116.8
Transfer to region 52.5 84.5 58.2 53.2 73.0 79.2 54.0 81.2 82.7 71.6 70.7 103.0 642.6 679.2 726.8
Others 5.9 117.9 0.1 -5.8 -6.7 -6.5 45.9 7.7 -5.6 -8.0 48.0 -4.6 28.8 286.4 64.5
Total Spending 263.2 482.0 141.4 146.4 230.9 247.1 239.1 250.8 205.6 213.4 293.2 272.8 2,058.9 2,351.1 2,240.7
Source: Indonesia’s MoF, Trimegah Research 30

Monthly Trade Update Breakdown
(BPS Version)
% y-y % y-y % y-y % y-y

Trade balance summary Sep-23 Oct-23 10M22 10M23
Sep-23 Oct-23 10M22 10M23
Total exports (USDmn) 20,747 22,148 -16.22 -10.43 244,010 214,408 30.9 -12.1
Non oil and gas exports (USDmn) 19,342 20,777 -17.72 -11.36 230,732 201,307 30.7 -12.8
Oil and gas exports (USDmn) 1,405 1,372 11.61 6.63 13,278 13,162 34.9 -0.9
Total Imports (USDmn) 17,342 18,673 -12.45 -2.42 198,622 183,192 27.72 -7.8
Non oil and gas imports (USDmn) 14,013 15,466 -14.46 -1.94 164,211 154,223 20.4 -6.1
Oil and gas imports (USDmn) 3,329 3,207 -2.85 -4.68 34,411 28,969 79.9 -15.8
Trade balance (USDmn) 3,405 3,476 45,388 31,216
Non oil and gas trade balance (USDmn) 5,329 5,311 66,522 47,084
Oil and gas trade balance (USDmn) -1,924 -1,835 -21,133 -15,807
Consumer goods import (USDmn) 1,665 1,818 4.74 3.83 16,349 17,487 4.2 7.0
Raw material import (USDmn) 12,693 13,438 -14.83 -6.08 152,765 133,448 30.1 -12.6
Capital goods import (USDmn) 2,984 3,417 -10.01 11.08 29,508 32,258 31.8 9.3
Source: BPS, CEIC, Trimegah Research 31

0
20
40
60
-40
-20
80
100
-2,000
10,000
12,000
-4,000
0
2,000
4,000
8,000
6,000
(%)
Feb-21
Apr-13
(USDmn)
Apr-21 Oct-13
Apr-14
Jun-21
Oct-14
Aug-21
Trade balance
Apr-15
Source: BPS, Trimegah Research

Oct-21 Oct-15
Apr-16
Capital goods import y-y

Dec-21
Oct-16
Feb-22 Apr-17
Oct-17
Consumer goods import growth y-y

Apr-22
Apr-18
Jun-22
(BPS Version)
Oct-18
Aug-22 Apr-19
Non O&G trade balance

Oct-19
Oct-22
Apr-20
Dec-22 Oct-20
Feb-23 Apr-21
Oct-21
Apr-23
Apr-22
Jun-23 Oct-22
Apr-23
Aug-23
O&G Trade balance
Oct-23
Raw material import growth y-y

Oct-23
3,476
3.8
5,311
-6.1
-1,835
11.1
10
30
50
70
90
-50
-10
-30
0
20
40
60
80
-60
-40
-20
(%)
Apr'13
(%)
Jun-19
Aug-19 Oct'13
Oct-19
Apr'14
Dec-19
Oct'14
Monthly Trade Update Breakdown
Feb-20
Apr'15
Apr-20
Jun-20 Oct'15
Aug-20 Apr'16
Oct-20
Oct'16
Dec-20
Apr'17
Feb-21
Export growth y-y
Non O&G export growth y-y
Apr-21 Oct'17
Jun-21 Apr'18
Aug-21
Oct'18
Oct-21
Apr'19
Dec-21
Oct'19
Feb-22
Apr-22 Apr'20
Jun-22 Oct'20
-2.42
-10.43
Aug-22
Apr'21
Oct-22
Oct'21
-11.36
-1.94
Dec-22
Import growth y-y
Feb-23 Apr'22
Non O&G Import growth y-y
Apr-23 Oct'22
Jun-23
Apr'23
Aug-23
Oct'23
Oct-23
32
Trade Data from BI (SEKI)
Summary
(USDmn) Oct-22 Nov-22 Dec-22 Jan-23 Feb-23 Mar-23 Apr-23 May-23 Jun-23 Jul-23 Aug-23 Sep-23
Import 15,801 16,223 16,738 15,583 13,535 17,594 12,366 18,114 14,843 16,373 16,192 13,959
General Merchandise 15,467 15,975 16,461 15,405 13,367 17,390 12,224 17,781 14,592 16,135 15,912 13,772
Agricultural Products 1,043 883 1,165 1,025 813 1,080 883 1,148 882 978 1,034 911
Manufacture Products 13,842 14,521 14,565 13,778 11,990 15,569 10,744 15,807 13,065 14,411 14,287 12,347
Mining Products 529 491 639 544 532 705 555 756 577 619 511 449
Other Merchandise 53 81 92 58 33 36 42 69 69 127 80 64
Other Goods 334 247 277 178 167 204 142 333 251 238 280 188
Export 23,562 22,818 22,399 20,856 20,136 22,209 18,046 20,405 19,411 19,660 20,709 19,347
General Merchandise 23,485 22,750 22,319 20,806 20,059 22,148 17,980 20,324 19,350 19,580 20,621 19,265
Agricultural Products 665 657 617 526 499 564 431 597 525 543 568 587
Mining Products 5,985 5,915 5,562 4,843 4,389 5,171 4,797 4,475 3,801 3,801 4,021 3,603
Other Merchandise 158 62 59 129 66 124 55 107 92 71 84 67
Other Goods 77 68 80 49 77 61 66 81 61 80 88 82

Agriculture Products Breakdown

Import
Agriculture Products ##### 882.5 ##### ### ### ### 882.7 1,147.9 881.8 977.6 1,033.7 911.3
Cocoa bean 40.1 46.1 65.9 79.6 55.3 54.3 52.7 81.0 69.3 59.1 67.6 56.0
Shrimp 9.0 14.7 11.8 7.6 6.9 10.3 8.1 10.0 7.2 12.3 9.8 7.0
Coffee bean 2.3 4.1 2.4 2.9 5.5 11.6 9.2 21.7 12.0 5.1 4.2 7.6
Fish and other related 30.9 29.6 36.5 31.0 34.4 31.7 24.0 35.7 22.1 24.0 25.3 22.2
Spices 22.2 30.0 12.7 40.4 62.8 41.2 25.0 21.6 20.1 22.5 5.8 3.8
Tea 2.0 1.2 1.0 0.9 0.7 1.3 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.8
Vegetable materials 1.4 1.5 2.4 0.9 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.6 2.1 2.7 1.1 1.9
Fruits 123.1 128.6 183.1 137.1 59.6 126.5 120.1 115.6 90.9 109.9 112.5 139.8
Tobacco 3.5 14.0 9.0 9.2 3.0 3.8 2.4 4.5 4.4 5.7 12.3 4.6
Vegetables 93.7 90.9 136.3 29.5 17.7 77.1 77.7 85.6 63.4 118.5 103.0 100.0
Resin and resin gums 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Natural rubber 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.8 1.0 0.8 1.0 0.7 1.0 0.5 0.7 0.6
Other agricultural products 714.4 520.8 703.4 684.6 564.3 719.5 560.8 769.2 588.7 616.5 690.7 566.9
Export
Agriculture Products 665.1 657.3 617.3 ### ### ### 430.6 596.7 525.2 542.8 568.5 587.2
Cocoa bean 4.8 9.2 7.7 4.7 4.0 3.2 3.1 7.2 5.1 2.8 0.3 4.5
Shrimp 133.8 120.4 122.2 104.6 94.9 122.2 92.2 127.8 101.5 88.8 94.9 104.6
Coffee bean 115.3 128.7 89.3 69.5 57.8 50.2 53.9 97.2 95.5 91.1 95.2 77.0
Fish and other related 143.1 160.0 163.2 100.7 122.9 129.5 101.0 124.5 117.1 125.9 135.0 145.1
Spices 37.6 41.4 39.9 36.7 48.4 57.9 36.9 53.9 47.3 43.1 47.1 48.3
Tea 4.6 4.8 4.8 4.3 4.2 4.3 2.6 4.8 3.6 3.8 5.1 4.2
Vegetable materials 36.9 26.1 27.4 32.5 20.2 39.7 25.7 29.4 16.9 24.4 25.7 20.6
Fruits 30.0 21.0 17.8 33.0 29.6 24.7 15.6 14.1 19.6 23.9 14.4 19.2
Tobacco 5.6 9.4 5.9 3.6 4.2 6.3 2.5 8.6 7.7 9.5 8.0 10.9
Vegetables 14.4 7.8 5.2 4.2 4.4 4.8 3.7 5.5 5.1 8.3 24.8 22.8
Resin and resin gums 15.1 10.2 9.5 10.6 14.9 10.5 8.6 12.0 7.5 8.7 15.2 10.8
Natural rubber 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.9 0.7 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.1
Other agricultural products 123.4 117.7 123.9 120.5 92.8 110.1 84.5 111.6 97.8 112.1 102.4 119.1

Manufacture Products Breakdown

Import
Electrical apparatus, measuring instruments and optical 2,295 2,362 2,359 2,505 2,135 2,720 1,859 2,598 2,055 2,443 2,360 1,943
Base metal products 1,847 2,000 2,036 1,782 1,612 2,240 1,458 2,151 1,836 1,669 1,748 1,598
Artificial resin, plastic materials 855 878 750 799 677 899 581 949 760 843 835 781
Textile and textile products 712 700 700 695 441 752 476 791 611 637 599 615
Chemicals 789 855 758 833 754 952 673 864 723 770 751 701
Processed food 604 679 620 782 609 791 620 798 708 857 860 651
Computer and parts 291 402 267 238 279 318 195 357 288 317 319 367
Parts of vehicles 453 434 422 401 357 425 284 448 371 409 456 379
Cattle fodder 358 301 385 415 313 326 399 363 453 326 465 284
Parts of machines 215 263 233 243 206 216 178 246 203 223 192 169
Paper and paper products 202 219 192 185 181 242 178 235 196 207 201 177
Fertilizer 350 399 311 286 204 208 178 167 120 174 123 90
Processed rubber 153 188 152 159 140 141 123 147 123 150 213 178
Other manufacture products 4,717 4,842 5,380 4,455 4,082 5,340 3,543 5,693 4,619 5,386 5,167 4,414
Export
Palm oils 2,850 2,331 2,136 1,955 1,986 1,659 1,381 1,488 2,314 2,279 2,400 1,839
Base metal products 3,373 3,410 3,657 3,189 3,201 3,493 3,200 3,294 3,144 3,440 3,301 3,535
Electrical apparatus, measuring instruments and optical 1,272 1,212 1,282 1,292 1,447 1,289 1,036 1,231 1,166 1,250 1,258 1,139
Processed food 891 845 811 732 758 874 625 891 815 832 908 885
Textile and textile products 908 1,077 1,080 978 956 1,030 737 1,046 1,033 1,074 1,236 907
Processed rubber 413 391 377 432 408 442 327 454 393 400 393 362
Footwear 612 584 558 558 473 582 443 599 530 528 558 429
Chemicals 537 464 463 425 423 477 417 375 407 446 422 435
Paper and paper products 397 433 436 438 390 451 369 455 416 383 394 385
Motor vehicle 4 wheels and more 632 501 567 586 569 562 360 556 556 562 558 599
Processed wood products 278 283 295 273 279 311 218 303 309 310 331 312
Fatty acid 480 388 389 402 426 426 353 364 356 415 412 392
Parts of vehicles 267 277 257 235 246 266 168 300 255 278 301 278
Other manufacture products 3,767 3,920 3,774 3,811 3,545 4,426 3,064 3,788 3,239 2,967 3,477 3,509

Mining Products Breakdown
Import
Mining Products 529 491 639 544 532 705 555 756 577 619 511 449
Coal 311 223 253 322 233 370 305 344 248 258 260 171
Copper ore 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.3
Nickel ore - 0.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.1 0.4 1.8 - 3.7
Bauxite 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 - 0.0 0.1 0.0
Granite 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.3
Other mining products 218 267 384 221 298 334 250 411 328 358 250 274
Export
Mining Products 5,985 5,915 5,562 4,843 4,389 5,171 4,797 4,475 3,801 3,801 4,021 3,603
Coal 5,316 5,108 4,580 4,223 3,942 4,524 3,964 3,776 3,328 3,085 2,815 2,662
Copper ore 573 718 860 546 362 586 774 620 397 333 1,117 852
Nickel ore - - - - 0.0 - - - - - - 0.0
Bauxite 45.0 36.7 39.6 31.3 35.3 1.6 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 -
Granite - - - - - - - - - - - -
Other mining products 51 52 82 43 50 60 59 79 76 384 88 89

0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
(%)
Feb-06
Aug-06
Feb-07
Aug-07
Feb-08
Aug-08
Feb-09
Aug-09
Feb-10
Aug-10
Feb-11
Aug-11
Feb-12
Aug-12
Source: BPS, S&P Global, Trimegah Research

Feb-13
Aug-13
Feb-14
Aug-14
Feb-15
Aug-15
Theoretical 7D Rev Repo Rate

Feb-16
Aug-16
Feb-17
0
2
3
5
6
1
4
7
Aug-17
Feb-18
7DRR
Jan-22
Aug-18
Feb-22
(% y-y)
Feb-19
Mar-22
Aug-19
Apr-22 Feb-20
May-22 Aug-20
Jun-22 Feb-21
6.00
4.56
Jul-22 Aug-21
Feb-22
Aug-22
Aug-22
Sep-22
Feb-23
Oct-22 Aug-23
Nov-22
Indonesia's core inflation (RHS)

Dec-22
Jan-23
Feb-23
Mar-23
Apr-23
Indonesia’s PMI and Inflation
25
35
40
50
55
30
45
60
May-23
Jun-23 Dec-20
Jul-23
Aug-23
Sep-23 May-21
Oct-23
Nov-23
1.87
2.86
Indonesia's headline inflation Oct-21
Mar-22
Aug-22
Jan-23
Markit Indonesia Manufacturing PMI SA
Jun-23
Nov-23
51.7
37
Indonesia’s Inflation Breakdown y-y
-0.50 0.50 1.50 2.50 3.50 4.50 5.50 6.50 7.50 8.50 % y-y
Headline Inflation
Core Inflation (RHS)
Administered Price Inflation (RHS)
Volatile Prices Inflation (RHS)
Energy
Food Ingredients
Food, Beverage and Tobacco
Clothing and Footwear
Housing, Water, Electricity, and Other Fuel
Household Equipment, Equipment and Routine Maintenance
Health
Transportation
Information, Communication, and Financial Service
Recreation, Sports, and Culture
Education
Food and Beverage Provision/Restaurant
Personal Care and Other Services
Oct-23 Nov-23

Indonesia’s Inflation Breakdown m-m
(%)
2
-1
-1
Food Ingredients Food, Beverage Personal Care and Transportation: Transportation: Clothing and Information, Household Energy Transportation:
and Tobacco: Food Other Services: Passenger Package Courier Footwear: Clothing Communication, Equipment, Personal
Other Personal Transportation Service and Financial Equipment and Transportation
Care Service Service: Routine Equipment
Information and Maintenance: Operations
Communication Goods and
Device Services for
Routine Household
Oct-2023 Nov-2023 Maintenance

Indonesia’s Inflation Seasonality m-m
(% m-m)
1.30
1.00
0.70
0.40
0.10
-0.20
-0.50
February
March
August
April
May
June
July
November
December
September
October
January
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
(% m-m)
1.2
0.9
0.6
0.38
0.3
0.17 0.23
0.0
-0.3
Jun-23
Oct-23
Jul-22
Sep-22
Oct-22
Jul-23
Sep-23
Nov-22
Dec-22
Jan-23
Nov-23
Mar-23
Feb-23
Apr-23
May-23
Aug-22
Aug-23
5-yr inflation avg. Actual inflation

2
7
12
-8
-3
Feb-2019
Apr-2019
(% y-y)
Jun-2019
Aug-2019
Oct-2019
Dec-2019
Feb-2020
Source: CEIC, Trimegah Research

Apr-2020
Jun-2020
Aug-2020
Investment loan growth

Oct-2020
Consumption loan growth

Dec-2020
Feb-2021
Apr-2021
Jun-2021
Aug-2021
Oct-2021
0
5
10
15
25
30
20
-5
Dec-2021
Feb-2019
Feb-2022
Apr-2019
(% y-y)
Apr-2022
Jun-2019
Jun-2022
Aug-2019
Aug-2022
Oct-2019
Oct-2022
Dec-2019
Dec-2022
Feb-2020
Feb-2023
Apr-2020
Loan-to-Deposit Ratio
Jun-2020 Apr-2023
Aug-2020 Jun-2023
Industry-level loan growth
Working capital loan growth
Oct-2020 Aug-2023
Dec-2020 Oct-2023
Feb-2021
Indonesia Monetary Data
Apr-2021
Jun-2021
Aug-2021
Oct-2021
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
-5
Dec-2021 Feb-2019
Feb-2022
Apr-2019
Industry-level TPF growth

(% y-y)
Apr-2022
Jun-2019
Jun-2022
Aug-2019
Aug-2022
Oct-2019
Oct-2022
Dec-2019
Dec-2022
Feb-2020
Feb-2023
Apr-2020
Apr-2023
Jun-2023 Jun-2020
Aug-2023 Aug-2020
Oct-2023 Oct-2020
0
Dec-2020
Time deposit growth
10
20
40
50
60
70
90
30
80
100
Industry-level loan growth

Feb-2021
(%)
Demand deposit growth
Apr-2021
Jun-2021
Aug-2021
Oct-2021
Dec-2021
Feb-2022
Apr-2022
Jun-2022
Aug-2022
Oct-2022
Dec-2022
Saving deposit growth
Feb-2023
Industry-level TPF growth
Apr-2023
Jun-2023
Aug-2023
Oct-2023
41
0
5
10
20
15
Nov-20
Jan-21
(% y-y)
Mar-21
May-21
Jul-21
Sep-21
Nov-21
Source: Bank Indonesia, Trimegah Research

Jan-22
M2
Mar-22
May-22
Jul-22
M1
Sep-22
Nov-22
0.15
3.43
Jan-23
Mar-23
Money Supply Data
May-23
Jul-23
Sep-23
-400,000
-200,000
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
0
1,000,000
1,200,000
May-17
(IDRbn)
Aug-17
Nov-17
Feb-18
May-18
Aug-18
Nov-18
Feb-19
Net Foreign Assets y-y
May-19
Aug-19
Nov-19
Feb-20
May-20
Aug-20
81,830
291,522
105,191
Nov-20
Govt. Assets y-y
Feb-21
May-21
Aug-21
Nov-21
Feb-22
May-22
Aug-22
Private Assets y-y
Nov-22
Feb-23
May-23
Aug-23
42
2.10
2.20
2.30
2.40
2.60
2.70
2.50
(pts)
Nov-13
Feb-14
May-14
Source: CEIC, Trimegah Research

Aug-14
Nov-14
Feb-15
May-15
Aug-15
Nov-15
Feb-16
May-16
Aug-16
Velocity of Money
Nov-16
Feb-17
May-17
Aug-17
Nov-17
Feb-18
May-18
Aug-18
Nov-18
Feb-19
Velocity of Money (M2) May-19
Aug-19
Nov-19
Feb-20
May-20
Aug-20
Nov-20
Feb-21
May-21
Aug-21
Nov-21
Feb-22
May-22
Aug-22
Nov-22
Feb-23
May-23
Aug-23
43
Indonesia’s FX Reserves Data
(USD bn) (pts)

148 1.05
146 145.2
144.2
0.95
144
142 0.84
140.3 0.85
139.4 139.3
140 138.1
137.2 137.5 137.7 137.1
138 0.72
0.75
136 134.9
134.0
134 133.1 0.65 0.62
0.61
132
130 0.55
128
0.45
126
Mar-14
Apr-16
Sep-16
Jun-15
Dec-17
Mar-19
Apr-21
Sep-21
Jan-20
Dec-22
Oct-13
Aug-14
Oct-18
Aug-19
Oct-23
Jan-15
Jul-17
Jun-20
Jul-22
Nov-15
Feb-17
Nov-20
Feb-22
May-18
May-23
Aug-23
Jun-23
Apr-23
Sep-23
Dec-22
Mar-23
Oct-23
Jan-23
Jul-23
Nov-22
Feb-23
Nov-23
May-23
FX reserves to 12mo import Average +stdev -stdev

FX Reserve

Indonesia’s Consumer Survey
(pts) (%) 9.34 (%)

140 134.19 19 15.40 77
124.29 17 75.26
120 76
114.38
15
100
13 75
80
11 74
9
60 73
7
40 5 72
11/2020
05/2023
01/2021
03/2021
05/2021
07/2021
09/2021
11/2021
01/2022
03/2022
05/2022
07/2022
09/2022
11/2022
01/2023
03/2023
07/2023
09/2023
11/2023
03/2021
05/2021
07/2021
09/2021
11/2021
01/2022
03/2022
05/2022
07/2022
09/2022
11/2022
01/2023
03/2023
05/2023
07/2023
09/2023
11/2023
Consumer Confidence Index: Expectations
Debt-to-Income Saving-to-Income Consumption-to-Income (RHS)
(pts)
138.01
137.41
135.74
135.19
135.18
(pts)
133.98
133.21
132.85
132.50
120.96
131.37
129.64
128.97
117.58
117.51
116.42
115.61
113.85
160
113.15
140
111.58
110.15
109.58
109.29
109.23
140
120
120
100
100
80
80
60 60
40 40
20
20
0
0 Aug-2023 Sep-2023 Oct-2023 Nov-2023
Aug-2023 Sep-2023 Oct-2023 Nov-2023 IEK: Income Expectation IEK: Business Condition Expectation
IKE: Current Income IKE: Durable Goods Buying IKE: Employment IEK: Employment Expectation

Retail Sales Data Breakdown
Retail sales index y-y Nov-22 Dec-22 Jan-23 Feb-23 Mar-23 Apr-23 May-23 Jun-23 Jul-23 Aug-23 Sep-23 Oct-23 Nov-23
Real Retail Sales Index 1.3 0.7 -0.6 0.6 4.9 1.5 -4.5 7.9 1.6 1.1 1.5 2.4 2.9
Motor Vehicles Part & Accessories y-y -9.5 -8.2 -10.8 -1.5 -9.5 -4.9 -1.2 -5.2 -2.8 -0.9 11.5 11.0 10.3
Food, Beverages, and Tobacco y-y 4.8 0.5 1.5 3.5 9.4 4.6 -2.7 12.0 4.8 3.4 2.3 2.9 3.3
Automotive Fuels y-y -5.7 -10.4 -11.3 -9.8 -12.5 -8.3 -8.4 0.2 -7.2 1.4 9.9 9.4 8.4
Information & Communication Equipment y-y -16.3 16.6 -4.1 -18.9 -18.4 -23.5 -25.3 -16.3 -17.6 -17.2 -15.1 -9.9 -8.6
Other Household Equipment y-y -14.2 -10.2 -11.5 -6.8 -9.0 -2.9 -8.4 -6.9 -7.7 -6.0 -1.8 3.6 5.2
Cultural & Recreation Goods y-y 5.8 8.2 -0.7 -2.2 1.1 9.9 -6.6 -0.9 -2.4 -5.8 -1.4 -3.7 -4.0
Other Goods y-y 8.1 3.5 -3.4 0.6 4.2 0.5 0.3 1.8 -6.3 -1.6 3.2 -1.6 2.3
Other Goods of which: Clothing y-y 17.1 12.7 7.2 16.6 17.3 17.6 7.1 15.0 6.6 8.1 13.6 8.7 10.0
Retail sales index m-m Nov-22 Dec-22 Jan-23 Feb-23 Mar-23 Apr-23 May-23 Jun-23 Jul-23 Aug-23 Sep-23 Oct-23 Nov-23
Real Retail Sales Index 0.4 7.0 -4.4 -3.4 7.0 12.8 -8.0 -0.3 -8.8 0.4 -1.5 3.2 0.9
Motor Vehicles Part & Accessories 0.8 5.0 0.1 -1.3 3.0 4.6 1.1 -0.9 -0.4 2.0 -1.6 -1.7 0.1
Food, Beverages, and Tobacco 0.3 4.6 -2.7 -2.5 8.4 14.1 -8.3 0.3 -10.9 0.3 -1.6 3.5 0.7
Automotive Fuels 0.1 1.2 0.1 -0.7 0.4 2.0 -0.1 2.3 1.9 1.5 -2.2 2.8 -0.8
Information & Communication Equipment 3.0 42.9 -21.1 -18.6 -3.8 5.5 -5.7 -6.1 -2.8 -1.4 2.0 8.5 4.5
Other Household Equipment 1.6 1.8 -3.9 0.2 4.9 4.1 -6.8 -3.2 6.3 0.7 -1.2 -0.2 3.2
Cultural & Recreation Goods -0.9 5.0 -4.1 -6.7 4.8 10.4 -4.9 2.7 10.3 -11.7 -2.1 -3.9 -1.2
Other Goods -4.4 7.0 -7.0 0.2 7.4 23.5 -18.0 -1.2 -2.6 2.5 -2.7 -1.1 -0.5
Other Goods of which: Clothing -1.3 9.1 -6.7 3.6 5.3 37.3 -26.7 -0.2 1.2 2.0 -3.7 -0.6 -0.2

Food Material Prices (Summary)
Traditional Market Last Price (IDR) w-w (%) m-m (%) y-y (%) ytd (%)
Rice 14,650 0.0 0.0 17.7 16.3
Chicken Meat 35,350 1.7 -0.3 0.1 -6.5
Beef 134,100 -0.1 -0.3 0.0 -0.6
Egg 29,150 -0.2 1.9 -5.0 -6.0
Onion 33,350 3.6 13.8 0.0 -13.5
Garlic 37,850 1.2 0.0 36.9 30.3
Red Chili Pepper 77,100 9.2 27.8 102.4 94.2
Cayenne Pepper 83,350 3.4 19.7 67.9 45.8
Cooking Oil 18,800 -0.3 0.0 -1.6 -2.3
Sugar 17,650 0.9 6.6 17.3 17.3
Modern Market Last Price (IDR) w-w (%) m-m (%) y-y (%) ytd (%)
Rice 15,250 1.0 1.3 12.1 11.7
Chicken Meat 42,500 -0.5 -5.7 1.8 1.4
Beef 164,200 -0.3 -0.2 -1.2 -1.4
Egg 34,200 0.4 0.7 7.0 3.0
Onion 43,250 -1.5 3.2 -18.9 -19.6
Garlic 47,450 0.0 0.3 35.4 32.9
Red Chili Pepper 87,900 5.7 26.9 20.6 22.9
Cayenne Pepper 96,500 4.5 20.9 35.2 27.1
Cooking Oil 20,750 -0.5 -1.2 -9.8 -9.6
Sugar 16,650 0.9 7.8 16.8 16.4
Data as of Dec 7th, 2023
Source: PIHPS, Trimegah Research 47

IDR/KG IDR/KG
24,000
26,000
28,000
30,000
32,000
34,000
36,000
38,000
40,000
42,000
10,800
11,300
11,800
12,300
12,800
13,300
13,800
14,300
14,800
15,300
29/01/2022 29/01/2022
29/03/2022 29/03/2022
29/05/2022 29/05/2022
29/07/2022 29/07/2022
Source: PIHPS, Trimegah Research

29/09/2022 29/09/2022
29/11/2022
29/11/2022
29/01/2023
29/01/2023
29/03/2023
29/03/2023
Garlic: Traditional Market

Rice: Traditional Market
29/05/2023
29/05/2023
29/07/2023
29/07/2023
29/09/2023
29/09/2023
29/11/2023
37,850
29/11/2023
14,650
IDR/KG
IDR/KG
25,000
35,000
45,000
55,000
65,000
75,000
85,000
29,000
31,000
33,000
35,000
37,000
39,000
41,000
29/01/2022
29/01/2022
29/03/2022
29/03/2022
29/05/2022
29/05/2022
29/07/2022
29/07/2022
29/09/2022
29/09/2022
29/11/2022
29/11/2022
29/01/2023
29/01/2023
29/03/2023
29/03/2023
29/05/2023
29/05/2023
Red Chili Pepper: Traditional Market
Chicken Meat: Traditional Market
29/07/2023
29/07/2023
29/09/2023
29/09/2023
29/11/2023
77,100
29/11/2023
35,350
IDR/KG
IDR/KG
-
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
29/01/2022
115,000
120,000
125,000
130,000
135,000
140,000
29/01/2022
29/03/2022
29/03/2022
29/05/2022
29/05/2022
29/07/2022
Food Material Prices (Traditional Market)
29/07/2022
29/09/2022
29/09/2022
29/11/2022
29/11/2022
29/01/2023
29/01/2023
29/03/2023
Beef: Traditional Market
29/03/2023
29/05/2023
Cayenne Pepper: Traditional Market
29/05/2023
29/07/2023
29/07/2023
29/09/2023
29/09/2023
29/11/2023
83,350
29/11/2023
134,100
48
IDR/KG

IDR/KG
-
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
20,000
22,000
24,000
26,000
28,000
30,000
32,000
34,000
29/01/2022
29/01/2022
29/03/2022
29/03/2022
29/05/2022
29/05/2022
29/07/2022
29/07/2022
29/09/2022
29/09/2022
29/11/2022
29/11/2022
29/01/2023
29/01/2023
29/03/2023
29/03/2023
Egg: Traditional Market
Cooking Oil: Traditional Market

29/05/2023
29/05/2023
29/07/2023
29/07/2023
29/09/2023
29/09/2023
29/11/2023
18,800
29/11/2023
29,150
IDR/KG
IDR/KG
13,000
13,500
14,000
14,500
15,000
15,500
16,000
16,500
17,000
17,500
18,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
55,000
60,000
65,000
70,000
29/01/2022
29/01/2022
29/03/2022
29/03/2022
29/05/2022
29/05/2022
29/07/2022
29/07/2022
29/09/2022
29/09/2022
29/11/2022
29/11/2022
29/01/2023
29/01/2023
29/03/2023
Sugar: Traditional Market
29/03/2023
Onion: Traditional Market
29/05/2023
29/05/2023
Food Material Prices (Traditional Market)
29/07/2023
29/07/2023
29/09/2023
29/09/2023
29/11/2023
17,650
29/11/2023
33,350
49
IDR/KG IDR/KG
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
55,000
60,000
65,000
70,000
75,000
80,000
12,900
13,400
13,900
14,400
14,900
15,400
28/01/2022 28/01/2022
28/03/2022 28/03/2022
28/05/2022 28/05/2022
28/07/2022 28/07/2022

28/09/2022 28/09/2022
28/11/2022 28/11/2022
28/01/2023 28/01/2023
28/03/2023 28/03/2023
Rice: Modern Market
28/05/2023 28/05/2023
Retail Price: Onion: Modern Market

28/07/2023 28/07/2023
28/09/2023 28/09/2023
28/11/2023 28/11/2023
15,250
43,250
IDR/KG 36,000 IDR/KG
38,000
40,000
42,000
44,000
46,000
48,000
34,000
36,000
38,000
40,000
42,000
44,000
46,000
48,000
50,000
52,000
28/01/2022 28/01/2022
28/03/2022 28/03/2022
28/05/2022 28/05/2022
28/07/2022 28/07/2022
28/09/2022 28/09/2022
28/11/2022 28/11/2022
28/01/2023 28/01/2023
28/03/2023 28/03/2023
Garlic: Modern Market
28/05/2023 28/05/2023
Chicken Meat: Modern Market
28/07/2023 28/07/2023
28/09/2023 28/09/2023
28/11/2023 28/11/2023
42,500
47,450
IDR/KG IDR/KG
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
100,000
110,000
145,000
150,000
155,000
160,000
165,000
170,000
175,000
Food Material Prices (Modern Market)
28/01/2022
28/01/2022
28/03/2022
28/03/2022
28/05/2022
28/05/2022
28/07/2022
28/07/2022
28/09/2022
28/09/2022
28/11/2022
28/11/2022
28/01/2023
28/01/2023
28/03/2023
Beef: Modern Market
28/03/2023
28/05/2023
28/05/2023
Red Chili Pepper: Modern Market
28/07/2023
28/07/2023
28/09/2023
28/09/2023
28/11/2023
28/11/2023
87,900
164,200
50
IDR/KG IDR/KG

40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
100,000
110,000
120,000
25,500
26,500
27,500
28,500
29,500
30,500
31,500
32,500
33,500
34,500
35,500
28/01/2022 28/01/2022
28/03/2022 28/03/2022
28/05/2022 28/05/2022
28/07/2022 28/07/2022
28/09/2022 28/09/2022
28/11/2022 28/11/2022
28/01/2023 28/01/2023
28/03/2023 28/03/2023
Egg: Modern Market
28/05/2023 28/05/2023
Cayenne Pepper: Modern Market

28/07/2023 28/07/2023
28/09/2023 28/09/2023
28/11/2023 28/11/2023
34,200
96,500
IDR/KG IDR/KG
13,000
13,500
14,000
14,500
15,000
15,500
16,000
16,500
17,000
14,500
16,500
18,500
20,500
22,500
24,500
26,500
28/01/2022 28/01/2022
28/03/2022 28/03/2022
28/05/2022 28/05/2022
28/07/2022 28/07/2022
28/09/2022 28/09/2022
28/11/2022 28/11/2022
28/01/2023 28/01/2023
Food Material Prices (Modern Market)
28/03/2023 28/03/2023
Sugar: Modern Market
Cooking Oil: Modern Market
28/05/2023 28/05/2023
28/07/2023 28/07/2023
28/09/2023 28/09/2023
28/11/2023 28/11/2023
20,750
16,650
51
Gasoline Prices
(IDR/litre) (IDR/litre)
7,500 11,000
10,500
7,000
10,000
6,500 6,800
9,500 10,000
6,000 9,000
8,500
5,500
8,000
5,000
7,500
4,500 7,000
Dec-21
Dec-22
Aug-22
Aug-23
Feb-22
Apr-22
Oct-22
Feb-23
Apr-23
Oct-23
Jun-22
Jun-23
Dec-21
Dec-22
Aug-22
Aug-23
Feb-22
Apr-22
Oct-22
Feb-23
Apr-23
Oct-23
Jun-22
Jun-23
BioSolar Pertalite (RON 90)
(IDR/litre) (IDR/litre)
19,000
15,000
18,000
14,000
17,000 17,750
13,000 13,400
16,000
12,000
15,000
11,000 14,000
10,000 13,000
9,000 12,000
8,000 11,000
Oct-22
Oct-23
Dec-21
Dec-22
Aug-22
Aug-23
Feb-22
Apr-22
Feb-23
Apr-23
Jun-22
Jun-23
Dec-21
Dec-22
Aug-22
Oct-22
Aug-23
Oct-23
Feb-22
Apr-22
Feb-23
Apr-23
Jun-22
Jun-23
Pertamax (RON 92) Pertamina Dex
Source: Pertamina, Trimegah Research 52

Change in Non-Subsidized Gas Prices
01/06/2023 01/07/2023 01/08/2023 01/09/2023 01/10/2023 01/11/2023 01/12/2023

BioSolar 6,800 6,800 6,800 6,800 6,800 6,800 6,800
Pertalite 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000
Pertamax 12,400 12,400 12,400 13,300 14,000 13,400 13,350
Pertamax Turbo 13,600 14,000 14,000 15,900 16,600 15,500 15,350
Dexlite 12,650 13,150 13,950 16,350 17,200 16,950 15,550
Pertamina Dex 13,250 13,550 14,350 16,900 17,900 17,750 16,200
Pertamina Green 95 - - - 15,000 16,000 15,000 14,900
Source: Pertamina, Trimegah Research 53

(Unit)
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
5,500
6,500
7,000
6,000
7,500
120,000
100,000
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
(Ton th)
Oct-20 Nov-20
Dec-20 Jan-21
Feb-21 Mar-21
Source: AISI, ASI, Gaikindo, Trimegah Research

Apr-21 May-21
Jun-21 Jul-21
Aug-21 Sep-21
Oct-21 Nov-21
Dec-21 Jan-22
Mar-22
Feb-22
May-22
Apr-22
Jul-22
Cement Sales
Jun-22
Sep-22
Aug-22
Nov-22
Oct-22
Jan-23
Dec-22
Motor Vehicle Sales: Wholesales
Mar-23
Feb-23
May-23
Apr-23
Jul-23
Jun-23
Sep-23
Aug-23
6,120
80,270
(Unit)
(Unit)
105,000
115,000
15,000
25,000
35,000
55,000
65,000
75,000
85,000
45,000
95,000
100,000
200,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
300,000
0
Nov-20
Dec-21
Jan-22 Jan-21
Feb-22 Mar-21
Mar-22
May-21
Vehicles Sales and Cement Sales
Apr-22
May-… Jul-21
Jun-22 Sep-21
Jul-22
Nov-21
Aug-22
Sep-22 Jan-22
Oct-22 Mar-22
Nov-22
May-22
Dec-22
Jan-23 Jul-22
Motorcycle Sales
Feb-23 Sep-22
Mar-23
Apr-23 Nov-22
Motor Vehicle Sales: Retail
May-… Jan-23
Jun-23 Mar-23
Jul-23
Aug-23 May-23
Sep-23 Jul-23
Oct-23
Sep-23
Nov-23
79451
571,983
54
DOMESTIC FINANCIAL
MARKET

Yield Curve
7.5 6.0 US
Indonesia
7.0 6.82
6.57 6.61 5.5
6.56
6.5
5.0
6.0 4.46
4.5 4.24 4.23 4.30
5.5
Yield
Yield
5.0 4.0
4.5 3.5
4.0
3.0
3.5
2.5
3.0
3M 6M 1 2 3 5 7 10 20 30
6M 1 2 3 4 5 7 8 9 10 15 20 30
Tenor
Tenor
Current YC YC 30 days ago
4.0 Eurozone
2.0 Japan
1.742
3.5
1.547
1.5 3.0
2.421 2.518 2.465
2.5 2.23 2.275
1.0
Yield
0.766 2.0
Yield
0.5 1.5
0.355
0.114 1.0
0.0
0.5
0.0
-0.5
3M 6M 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 15 20 25 30
3M 6M 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 15 20 30
Tenor
Tenor

(bps) (bps)
10
20
80
30
40
50
60
130
180
230
280
330
380
430
Dec-21 Dec-21
Jan-22 Jan-22
Feb-22 Feb-22
Mar-22 Mar-22
Apr-22 Apr-22
May-22 May-22
Ted Spread
Currency Risk
Jun-22 Jun-22
Jul-22 Jul-22
Aug-22 Aug-22
Sep-22 Sep-22
Oct-22 Oct-22

Nov-22 Nov-22
Average
Average
Dec-22 Dec-22
Jan-23 Jan-23
TED Spread
Currency Risk
Feb-23 Feb-23
Mar-23 Mar-23
Apr-23 Apr-23
+stdev
May-23 May-23
+stdev
Jun-23 Jun-23
Jul-23 Jul-23
Aug-23 Aug-23
Sep-23 Sep-23
Oct-23 Oct-23
-stdev
-stdev
Nov-23 Nov-23
Dec-23 Dec-23
26.93
142.2
(bps)
20
40
60
80
0
100
120
140
50
70
90
110
130
150
170
Dec-21 Dec-21
Jan-22 Jan-22
Feb-22 Feb-22
Mar-22 Mar-22
Apr-22 Apr-22
May-22 May-22
Jun-22
Fra OIS Spread
Jun-22
Jul-22 Jul-22
Aug-22 Aug-22
Sep-22 Sep-22
Oct-22 Oct-22
Nov-22
INDON CDS
Nov-22
Dec-22
Average
Dec-22
Jan-23 Jan-23
INDON CDS
Feb-23
FRA OIS Spread
Feb-23
Mar-23 Mar-23
Apr-23 Apr-23
May-23 May-23
Average
+stdev
Jun-23 Jun-23
Jul-23 Jul-23
Aug-23 Aug-23
Sep-23 Sep-23
Oct-23 Oct-23
-stdev
Nov-23 Nov-23
Dec-23 Dec-23
29.77
74.79
(bps)
Current Risk Perception & Volatility
20
40
60
80
0
100
120
140
160
180
200
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
0
5
Dec-21
Dec-21
Jan-22
Jan-22
Feb-22
Feb-22
Mar-22
Mar-22
Apr-22
Apr-22
May-22
Country Risk
May-22
Jun-22 Jun-22
Jul-22 Jul-22
Aug-22 Aug-22
Sep-22 Sep-22
VIX
Oct-22 Oct-22
Nov-22 Nov-22
Average
VIX
Dec-22 Dec-22
Jan-23 Jan-23
Country Risk
Feb-23 Feb-23
Mar-23 Mar-23
Average
Apr-23 Apr-23
May-23 May-23
+stdev
Jun-23 Jun-23
Jul-23 Jul-23
Aug-23 Aug-23
Sep-23 Sep-23
Oct-23 Oct-23
-stdev
Nov-23 Nov-23
Dec-23 Dec-23
95.35
12.35
57
Real Yield in Emerging Market
Sovereign Rating 10yr Govt. Bond Yield (%) Expected Expected

Country Weekly Change (%) YTD Change (%) Inflation y-y Real Yield
Moodys Fitch S&P 31/12/2021 01/12/2023 08/12/2023 Inflation ('23) Inflation ('24)
Indonesia Baa2 BBB BBB 6.38 6.62 6.61 -0.21 3.49 2.56 4.05 3.70 3.00
Malaysia A3 BBB+ A- 3.58 3.83 3.74 -2.22 4.53 1.80 1.94 2.65 2.50
Philippine Baa2 BBB BBB+ 3.87 5.40 5.40 0.00 39.59 4.90 0.50 6.00 3.65
Thailand Baa1 BBB+ BBB+ 1.89 2.95 2.84 -3.89 49.97 -0.31 3.15 1.70 1.90
South Korea Aa2 AA- AA 2.23 4.10 4.10 0.00 84.37 3.80 0.30 3.60 2.40
India Baa3 BBB- BBB- 6.45 7.29 7.27 -0.27 12.64 4.87 2.40 6.60 5.40
Vietnam Ba3 BB BB 3.42 2.55 2.60 1.96 -23.98 3.59 -0.99 3.10 3.10
China A1 A+ A+ 2.78 2.68 2.69 0.07 -3.38 -0.20 2.89 0.40 3.10
South Africa Ba2 BB- BB- 9.81 11.59 11.65 0.51 18.69 5.90 5.75 5.80 3.10
Brazil Ba2 BB- BB- 10.84 10.89 10.94 0.43 0.90 4.82 6.12 4.65 3.10
Mexico Baa1 BBB- BBB 7.56 9.27 9.30 0.36 23.08 4.26 5.04 5.60 3.10
Ukraine B3 B B 8.88 34.77 33.56 -3.48 277.87 5.30 28.26 13.60 3.10
Russia Baa3 BBB BBB- 8.45 15.99 15.99 0.00 89.28 6.69 9.30 5.90 3.10

10,000
11,000
12,000
14,000
15,000
16,000
17,000
18,000
13,000
9,000
8,000
Dec-2012
Source: Trimegah Research

Mar-2013
Jun-2013
Sep-2013
(Rupiah/USD)
Dec-2013
Mar-2014
Jun-2014
Sep-2014
Dec-2014
Mar-2015
Jun-2015
Sep-2015
Dec-2015
Mar-2016
Jun-2016
Sep-2016
Lower and Upper Bound USDIDR Model

Dec-2016
Mar-2017
Jun-2017
Sep-2017
Dec-2017
Mar-2018
Jun-2018
Sep-2018
USDIDR Fisher Effect Model
Dec-2018
Mar-2019
Jun-2019
Sep-2019
Dec-2019
Mar-2020
Jun-2020
Sep-2020
Dec-2020
Mar-2021
Real Interest Rate Parity Model USDIDR Model
Jun-2021
Sep-2021
Dec-2021
Mar-2022
Jun-2022
Sep-2022
Dec-2022
Mar-2023
Jun-2023
Sep-2023
Dec-2023
15595
Actual USDIDR Model
Mar-2024
Jun-2024
Sep-2024
15,502
17,494
59
(%)
6
7
5.7
5.8
6.1
6.2
6.3
6.4
6.5
6.6
6.7
6.8
6.9
7.1
7.2
7.3
7.4
7.5
5.9
04/01/23
Source: Trimegah Research

04/09/23
04/17/23
04/25/23
05/03/23
05/11/23
05/19/23
05/27/23
6.80
6.68
6.57
6.61
06/04/23
Fair yield
06/12/23
06/20/23
06/28/23
10YR INDOGB Model
07/06/23
07/14/23
Lower Bound
07/22/23
07/30/23
08/07/23
08/15/23
08/23/23 Upper Bound
08/31/23
09/08/23
09/16/23
09/24/23
10/02/23
10yr INDOGB Yield
10/10/23
10/18/23
10/26/23
11/03/23
11/11/23
11/19/23
11/27/23
12/05/23
60
Foreign Flow to Indonesia’s Capital Market
(IDR bn)
60,000
40,000 23,495.10
20,000
-
(517.41)
(20,000)
(40,000)
(60,000)
(80,000)
(100,000)
(120,000)
(140,000)
Nov-20
Nov-19
Nov-21
Nov-22
Sep-23
Nov-23
Sep-19
Sep-20
Sep-21
Sep-22
Jul-20
Jul-21
Jul-22
Jul-23
Mar-20
Mar-21
Mar-22
Mar-23
Jan-20
Jan-21
Jan-22
Jan-23
May-20
May-21
May-22
May-23
Net JCI Foreign Flow (IDRbn) Net Govt. Bond Foreign Flow (IDRbn)
Source: CEIC, Trimegah Research 61

Ownership in Indonesia’ Stock Market
(IDR bn)
4,000,000
3,500,000
3,000,000
2,500,000
3,783,396
2,000,000
2,874,925
1,500,000
1,000,000
Jan-2023
Mar-2020
Jan-2020
Jan-2021
Jan-2022
Mar-2021
Mar-2022
Mar-2023
May-2020
May-2021
May-2022
May-2023
Jul-2020
Sep-2020
Jul-2021
Sep-2021
Jul-2022
Sep-2022
Jul-2023
Sep-2023
Nov-2019
Nov-2020
Nov-2021
Nov-2022
Local shares in stock market Foreign shares in stock market
Source: CEIC, Trimegah Research 62

Ownership of Government Bond
w-w changes
(IDR tn) 31/12/2021 30/12/2022 30/11/2023 01/12/2023 08/12/2023 Ytd Changes
(IDRtn)
Bank 1,591 1,697 1,550 1,537 1,568 31.6 -129.2
Central Bank (Net) 801 1,020 1,028 1,038 1,008 -29.7 -11.9
Central Bank (Gross) 1,221 1,454 1,362 1,362 1,363 1.0 -90.2
Non-Bank 2,286 2,592 3,023 3,026 3,033 6.8 441.1
Mutual Fund 158 146 177 177 178 1.5 32.2
Insurance and Pension Fund 655 873 1,035 1,035 1,036 1.0 162.8
Non-Resident 891 762 834 837 840 2.6 77.3
Individual 221 344 431 431 431 0.6 87.1
Others 360 467 547 547 548 1.1 81.6
Total 4,679 5,309 5,601 5,601 5,609 8.6 300.0
w-w changes
In % 31/12/2021 30/12/2022 30/11/2023 01/12/2023 08/12/2023 Ytd Changes
(in %)
Bank 34.0 32.0 27.7 27.4 28.0 0.52 -4.0
Central Bank (Net) 17.1 19.2 18.4 18.5 18.0 -0.56 -1.2
Central Bank (Gross) 26.1 27.4 24.3 24.3 24.3 -0.02 -3.1
Non-Bank 48.9 48.8 54.0 54.0 54.1 0.04 5.3
Mutual Fund 3.4 2.7 3.2 3.2 3.2 0.02 0.4
Insurance and Pension Fund 14.0 16.4 18.5 18.5 18.5 -0.01 2.0
Non-Resident 19.0 14.4 14.9 14.9 15.0 0.02 0.6
Individual 4.7 6.5 7.7 7.7 7.7 0.00 1.2
Others 7.7 8.8 9.8 9.8 9.8 0.01 1.0
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
Source: DJPPR, Trimegah Research 63

Total Government Securities Issuance
Dec 12th, 2023 (IDRtn) Budget 2023 Budget Realization % Realization to Budget
Issuance Need 712.9 815.37 114.37
Government Debt Securities 534.19

IDR Denominated GDS 475.22
Coupon GDS 363.52
T-Bills 34.54
Retail Bonds 65.59
Private Placement 11.57
Foreign Denominated Bonds 58.97
SEC USD-EUR (- Buyback LM) 46.77
Samurai Bonds 11.24
USD Onshore Bonds
SDG Bonds
Valas Voluntary Disclosure Program 0.96
Sovereign Sharia Securities (Sukuk) 281.17
Domestic Sovereign Sharia Securities (Sukuk) 249.77
IFR/PBS/T-bills Sukuk 181.00
Retail Sukuk 61.94
Private Placement 6.83
Global Sukuk 31.40
Total 815.37
Source: DJPPR, Trimegah Research 64

Economic Forecast
Economic
Forecast 3Q23 4Q23 1Q24 2Q24 3Q24 4Q24 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
BI 7DRR (%) 5.75 6 6.5 6.5 5.5 5 6 5 4.75 4.5 5.35
20yr ID govt
bond (%) 6.9 7.2 7.3 7.4 7.1 7.1 7.2 7.1 7.26 7.01 7.3
10yr ID govt
bond (%) 6.7 7 7.2 7.2 6.8 6.7 7 6.7 6.55 6.3 6.59
5yr ID govt
bond (%) 6.33 6.6 6.9 6.9 6.5 6.4 6.6 6.4 6.35 6.1 6.39
10yr UST yield
(%) 4.3 4.9 5 4.8 4.5 4 4.9 4 3.2 3.5 4
Fed Fund
Rate (%) 5.5 5.75 5.75 5.25 5 4.75 5.75 4.75 3 3.25 3.75
Inflation (%) 2.5 2.8 3 3.1 3.4 3.2 2.8 3.8 4 4 4.2
USDIDR 15,300 15,500 16,200 16,500 16,400 16,400 15,500 16,400 16,500 16,600 16,500
GDP growth
(%) 5.1 5 5 4.8 4.8 4.9 5 4.9 5 5.1 5.1
CA Balance to
GDP (%) -0.3 0 0.5 -1.5 -1 -0.1 0.3 -0.5 -1 -1 -1.5
Source: Trimegah Research 65

Disclaimer
Disclaimer
This report has been prepared by PT Trimegah Sekuritas Indonesia Tbk on behalf of itself and its affiliated companies and is provided for information
purposes only. Under no circumstances is it to be used or considered as an offer to sell, or a solicitation of any offer to buy. This report has been produced
independently and the forecasts, opinions and expectations contained herein are entirely those of PT Trimegah Sekuritas Indonesia Tbk.
While all reasonable care has been taken to ensure that information contained herein is not untrue or misleading at the time of publication, PT Trimegah
Sekuritas Indonesia Tbk makes no representation as to its accuracy or completeness and it should not be relied upon as such. This report is provided
solely for the information of clients of PT Trimegah Sekuritas Indonesia Tbk who are expected to make their own investment decisions without reliance on
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connected with it may have acted upon or used the information herein contained, or the research or analysis on which it is based, before publication. PT
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INVESTMENT RATING RULE:

Buy : Share price is expected to exceed more than 10% over the next 12 months
Neutral : Share price is expected to trade within the range of 0%-10% over the next 12 months
Sell : Share price is expected to trade below 0% over the next 12 months
Not Rated : The company is not within Trimegah research coverage
66

2023 12 12 Trim Econ - Economy in Data December 2023

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2023 12 12 Trim Econ - Economy in Data December 2023

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ECONOMY IN DATA: December 2023

Global Macro This Month: Indonesia Economic Data

*As of Dec 11th, 2023

Net 1 Month 3 Month 1 Month 3 Month

Source: Bloomberg, Trimegah Research 4

1,800,000 CFTC data on 2yr UST positioning 380,000

Source: Bloomberg, Trimegah Research 5

Source: Bloomberg, Trimegah Research

Fed Rate 2023

Fed Rate 2024

10-Y US T-bills yield

Source: Trimegah Research 7

Eurozone 2023 Eurozone 2024 Thailand 2023 Thailand 2024

Source: Bloomberg, Trimegah Research 8

Source: Bloomberg, Trimegah Research 9

0.00 4.15 0.00

Source: Bloomberg, Trimegah Research 10

Source: Bloomberg, Trimegah Research

Aug-22 Aug-22 Aug-22

Dec-22 Dec-22 Dec-22

Feb-23 Feb-23 Feb-23

Apr-23 Apr-23 Apr-23

Jun-23 Jun-23 Jun-23

Bank Negara Malaysia Money Mkt Weighted Avg

Reserve Bank of India Repurchase Effective Cut off

Aug-21 Aug-21 Aug-21

Oct-21 Oct-21 Oct-21

Dec-21 Dec-21 Dec-21

Feb-22 Feb-22 Feb-22

Apr-22 Apr-22 Apr-22

Jun-22 Jun-22 Jun-22

Aug-22 Aug-22 Aug-22

Oct-22 Oct-22 Oct-22

Dec-22 Dec-22 Dec-22

Feb-23 Feb-23 Feb-23

Apr-23 Apr-23 Apr-23

Jun-23 Jun-23 Jun-23

Aug-23 Aug-23 Aug-23

Oct-23 Oct-23 Oct-23

Dec-23 Dec-23 Dec-23

Oct-22 Oct-22 Oct-22

Dec-22 Dec-22 Dec-22

Feb-23 Feb-23 Feb-23

Apr-23 Apr-23 Apr-23

Jun-23 Jun-23 Jun-23

Aug-23 Aug-23 Aug-23

Oct-23 Oct-23 Oct-23

Dec-23 Dec-23 Dec-23

Source: Bloomberg, Trimegah Research

Dec-21 Dec-21 Dec-21

Dec-18 Dec-18 Dec-18

Jun-21 Jun-21 Jun-21

Dec-18 Dec-18 Dec-18

Jun-21 Jun-21 Jun-21

Sep-21 Sep-21 Sep-21

Sep-22 Sep-22 Sep-22

Sep-23 Sep-23 Sep-23

Source: Bloomberg, Trimegah Research

10yr US Govt Bond

10yr India Govt Bond

10yr Malaysia Govt Bond

10yr India Govt Bond

10yr Malaysia Govt Bond