Question No.

Forecast for Bottled Water

Volume Exponential Exponential Exponential
(Million Soothing Soothing Soothing
Year litre) Moving Average 0.1 0.2 0.3
201
8 445106.0   445106.0 445106.0 445106.0
201
9 458139.8   445106.0417 445106.0417 445106.0417
202
0 443924.3   446409.4183 447712.7948 449016.1714
202
1 467740.5 449056.7171 446160.9067 446955.0964 447488.6107
202
2   456601.5372 448318.8662 451112.1774 453564.178

Forecast for Juice

Volume Exponential Exponential Exponential
(Million Soothing Soothing Soothing
Year litre) Moving Average 0.1 0.2 0.3
2018 34631.4   34631.4 34631.4 34631.4
2019 35130.8   34631.44647 34631.44647 34631.44647
2020 33889.2   34681.38439 34731.32231 34781.26023
2021 35543.0 34550.48828 34602.16522 34562.89639 34513.63997
2022   34854.35341 34696.25289 34758.92548 34822.46054

Forecast for Soft Drink

Volume Exponential Exponential Exponential
(Million Soothing Soothing Soothing
Year litre) Moving Average 0.1 0.2 0.3
2018 346124.8   346124.8 346124.8 346124.8
2019 352475.6   346124.8068 346124.8068 346124.8068
2020 339805.5   346759.8897 347394.9727 348030.0557
2021 358778.2 346135.3128 346064.4503 345877.0772 345562.6875
2022   350353.1034 347335.8231 348457.2975 349527.3349

a) A moving average, sometimes known as an MA, is a common instrument used in

technical analysis of stock prices. (Raudys, 2003) Calculating a stock's moving
average helps to smooth out the price data by providing a constantly updated average
price. This is one of the reasons why this calculation is done. When price movements
are unpredictable and occur over a short period of time, calculating a stock's moving
average can assist smooth out the effects of these fluctuations. (Karasu, 2020)
Moving averages are a common technique that are widely used in the discipline of
technical analysis. Technical analysis is a subfield of investing that seeks to
understand and profit from the price movement patterns of securities and indexes.
Technical analysts will use moving averages, for instance, to determine whether or
not a security is experiencing a change in momentum when the price of the asset
suddenly declines. Moving averages function in this manner to determine whether or
not a particular security is going through a change in its momentum. On other cases,
they will rely on moving averages to support their beliefs that a change is on the
horizon to back up their assumptions.
A simple arithmetic moving average (SMA) can be computed by adding up the prices
at the necessary time intervals, then dividing the amount obtained by the total number
of time intervals included in the calculation. To calculate the value of a security, for
example, one could add up its closing price for a predetermined number of time
periods, then divide that total by the same predetermined number of times. This would
give one an estimate of the security's value. (Muangprathub, 2020) The moving
average over a shorter time period responds more quickly to changes in the price of
the underlying securities, whereas the moving average over a longer time period
requires more time to react. Because one trade for the short term, the moving average
that one utilize needs to have a fast response time to price changes. For this reason, a
moving average with three periods is utilized.
b) A straightforward exponential smoothing is one of the most straightforward
methods for predicting the outcome of a time series. The fundamental presumption
behind this paradigm is that the future will present itself as being extremely analogous
to the recent past. Because of this, the only demand pattern that this model could learn
is the level of demand based on historical data. The level can be thought of as a
typical value that the fluctuating demand tends to bounce around. The graphic that
follows shows that the level is a smoothed picture of the demand. (Dev, 2018)
In this particular scenario, a projection for the fifth quarter is required. One will need
the forecast from the previous period for that (i.e., period 4). (It’s now in the fourth
and final period). Nevertheless, there are no estimates provided for Period 4. As a
result, it is essential to estimate the prognosis for period 4 before anything else.
Because there is no forecast provided for Period 3, a situation that is quite similar to
the previous one occurs in Period 4. Because of this, in order to construct our
projection for the period 3, it need to look back two more times. It is self-evident that
this will result in our having to reset the clock to the first minute that it was set to. As
there was no period that came before this one, it is necessary to make assumptions
while attempting to make a prognosis for period 1. When developing forecasts, it is
fairly common practice to base them on the demand from the period before, which
might be referred to as Period 1. In other words, this will provide a baseline estimate
that may be used as a basis for developing a forecast for Year 2. As a result, it might
apply this strategy to the process of making forecasts for the years 2023–2025.
References
Dev, S. A. T. H. M. G. R. L. A. a. V. S. W., 2018. Solar irradiance forecasting using triple
exponential smoothing.. n 2018 International Conference on Smart Energy Systems and
Technologies.
Karasu, S. A. A. B. S. a. A. W., 2020. A new forecasting model with wrapper-based feature
selection approach using multi-objective optimization technique for chaotic crude oil time
series.. Energy.
Muangprathub, J. I. A. B. L. a. P. N., 2020. Portfolio risk and return with a new simple
moving average of price change ratio.. Wireless Personal Communications.
Raudys, A. L. V. a. M. E., 2003. Moving averages for financial data smoothing.. In
International conference on information and software technologi.