See discussions, stats, and author profiles for this publication at: https://www.researchgate.

net/publication/273444317

QUANTIFYING THE IMPACTS OF IMPOUNDING GRAND ETHIOPIAN

RENAISSANCE DAM RESERVOIR ON NASSER LAKE ACTIVE STORAGE

Conference Paper · March 2015

DOI: 10.13140/2.1.3539.6641

CITATIONS READS

11 5,712

4 authors:

Elsayed M. Ramadan Abdelazim M Negm

Zagazig University Zagazig University
32 PUBLICATIONS 157 CITATIONS 604 PUBLICATIONS 4,365 CITATIONS

SEE PROFILE SEE PROFILE

Moustafa Elsammany Ahmed Helmy

Nile Research Institute (NRI), National Water Research Center (NWRC), Egypt College of Engineering
9 PUBLICATIONS 180 CITATIONS 5 PUBLICATIONS 36 CITATIONS

SEE PROFILE SEE PROFILE

All content following this page was uploaded by Abdelazim M Negm on 20 March 2015.

The user has requested enhancement of the downloaded file.

 Eighteenth International Water Technology Conference, IWTC18 Sharm ElSheikh, 12-14 March 2015

QUANTIFYING THE IMPACTS OF IMPOUNDING GRAND ETHIOPIAN

RENAISSANCE DAM RESERVOIR ON NASSER LAKE ACTIVE STORAGE

Elsayed M. Ramadan** , Abdelazim M. Negm* Moustafa El-Sammany*** and Ahmed H. El-Sayed**,

*
Environmental Engineering Dept., Egypt-Japan University for Science and Technology, E-JUST, P.O.Box 179
New Borg Elarab City, Postal Code 21934, Alex., Egypt, (Seconded from Faculty of Engineering, Zagazig
University), Email: negm@ejust.edu.eg and amnegm@zu.edu.eg
**
Water and Water Structures Engineering Dept., Faculty of Engineering, Zagazig University (ZU), Postal Code
44519, Zagazig, Egypt, E-mail: smokhtar@zu.edu.eg
***
Assoc. Professor, Nile Research Institute (NRI), National Water Research Center (NWRC), Ministry of Water
Resources and Irrigation (MWRI), E-mail: msammany@hotmail.com

Abstract. Construction of dams results in both positive and negative environmental impacts. Sometimes the
adverse environmental impacts extend to affect other countries of the river basins in case the river is an
international one such as the River Nile. On 31 March 2011, the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD)
project was made public. Once impounding of the GERD reservoir begins, it will produce negative impacts on
Egypt especially if filling occurs during low flow periods. The international panel of experts that formed on 11
April 2012 and submitted its final report on May 31, 2013 stated that the initial trans-boundary environmental
impact assessment report concludes that the main adverse impact in Egypt will be a reduction in power generated
at Aswan High Dam due to a fall in the water levels of Lake Nasser. Furthermore, during GERD impounding,
there could be an irrigation deficit in dry years. This highlights the importance of this research paper which
comes on line to quantify the shortage of water in the active storage of Lake Nasser due to impounding of GERD
reservoir. Different scenarios of impounding will be considered as 6 , 3 and 2 years under different inflow
conditions. Mathematical modeling using MODSIM software was used to test these scenarios. The results
indicated that the negative impacts on Egyptian water resources are severe specially if the filling period is shorter
than 6 years. In turn, Egypt water policy and management should be modified to overcome this deficit of water at
least during the six years of filling and negotiation should continue with the upstream countries Ethiopia and
Sudan to solve the water conflict between them otherwise, Egypt will face many severe environmental, economic
and social problems if the GERD is completed and used for storage purposes rather than for hydropower
generation.

KEYWORDS – Egypt, Nasser Lake, Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, Nile Basin, Water Resources.

1. INTRODUCTION
Perhaps the most example of the interaction of population growth, water scarcity and international
conflict is the vast basin of the River Nile in northeastern Africa. For centuries, the River Nile was the cultural
symbol of Egypt. Nile provides almost all the fresh water used by about 90 million Egyptians living along its
banks. Egypt saw no reason to worry about its dependence on the Nile waters. Its complacency is now ending,
however, as the upstream nations begin to harness the Nile water to provide economic prosperity for their
growing numbers [1]. These conflicts and implications increase because of the Ethiopian Government decision to
implement the 6,000 MW roller compacted concrete dam, Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). The dam
is located on the Blue Nile just upstream of the Ethiopian-Sudan border, about 20 km from Sudan border. GERD
will have maximum net head of 133 m and total gross height of 145 m. The GERD reservoir will cover an area
of 1,874 km2 at full supply level of 640 m above mean sea level, with total and active storage volumes of 74 and
59.22 BCM respectively, for a probable maximum flood of 38,750 m3/sec, [2]. Recently, Ali [3] used DEM and
3D analysis to estimate the quantity of water cashed in GERD reservoir to be 14.05, 37.91, 66.29, 80.57 and
111.45 BCM under the dam altitude of 88, 117, 137, 145 and 170 m respectively.
Sharaki in the assessment of GERD impacts[4], [5], said that, there are obstacles to geology to the
implementation of bridging the “Millennium grand”, which intends to Ethiopia residence on the tributaries of the
River Nile, explaining that the dam would not withstand the amount of silt and large water expected to stores. In
addition, a collapse within 25 years is expected causing something like a tsunami and sink areas, including the
Sudanese capital Khartoum and its impact will reach Aswan High Dam (AHD). In spite of Abbas studies,
Ethiopian Prime Minister laid the GERD foundation stone on April 2011, where the expected construction time
for the dam is 44 months. Originally, Ethiopian governorate announced the dam as (Project X). Initially, it was
named the “Millennium Dam” then the Council of Ministers in March 2012 renamed it “Grand Ethiopian
 2

Renaissance Dam”. Ethiopian Prime Minister argued, based on an unnamed study, that the dam would not reduce
the downstream water availability. Also, would regulate water for irrigation. On the other side, Egypt opposes
the construction of the dam as a storage dam for purposes other than electricity generation, which it believes that,
the GERD construction will reduce the amount of water that it gets from the Nile and will reduce the generated
electricity from AHD [6].
On the other side, Saad [6], Egyptian Minister of Water Resources and Irrigation, said that, the GERD
file is paramount importance on the national and regional level for the management and use of water resources of
Egypt. The Egyptian minister has expressed the fears from GERD construction, the minister showed that, the
most important point that haunt the Egyptian government is GERD reservoir filling period, which shall be
accompanied by an impact on Egypt. He explained that, reservoir impounding of this size over 6 years will cause
annually decrease inevitably Nile flow to Lake Nasser by about 12 BCM, which represents approximately 23%
of Egypt’s annual share of Nile water. In addition to lowering the amount of electricity generated from Aswan
High Dam and Aswan Reservoir. Although Egypt is currently suffer from shortage of water resources and
electrical supply, this shortage will increase during and after filling of GERD reservoir results in an increase of
adverse impacts of GERD on Egypt, especially during periods of low flood, [6].
On the other hand, Allam [6], Ex-Minister of Water Resources and Irrigation, revealed that Ethiopia
begin to change the course of the Blue Nile, next September, as a prelude to complete the establishment of
GERD. He pointed out that Ethiopia does not respect Egypt's share of Nile water, and Ethiopian pledges that the
Ethiopian policies should not affect the water security of Egypt is just a word of honor. Allam said, intent of
Ethiopia establishment of 4 dams on the Nile River would cause water deficit of about 18 BCM, which will
affect the life in Egypt and Sudan. The electricity generated from AHD and Aswan Dam will be less by about
25-30%. In addition, GERD, alone, causes a yearly water deficit of 9 BCM, and annual reduce in power
generation of AHD and the Aswan Dam of 20-25%, according to Egyptian and International Studies. Allam
pointed out that the Egyptian government should announce the negative impacts of the GERD on Egypt on both
national and international levels, He explained ten steps framework to minimize the severe negative expected
impacts from GERD construction on Egypt, [6].
For the above reasons, this study was planned two years ago to investigate the environmental impacts of
GERD on the Egyptian water resources management and Security with well-defined, calibrated and verified
modeling methodology.

2. BASIN MODELING METHODOLOGY

The river basin modeling and simulation package (MODSIM) was used in the study. For detailed
information on MODSIM, one may consult Labadie et al. [8] and Mukhtar [7,9].
The basic principle underlying MODSIM is that most physical water resource systems can be accurately
simulated as capacitated. Components of the system are represented as a network of nodes, both storage (i.e.,
reservoirs, groundwater basins, and storage right accounts) and non-storage (i.e., diversion points, demand
locations, return flow locations, etc.), and links (i.e., canals, river reaches) connecting these nodes. On the basis
of a set of simulations, usually made for management strategies, the performance of the basin is evaluated in
terms of water allocation, shortages, overall basin water balance, etc.
2.1 Simulation Principles
MODSIM simulates the water allocation in a river basin through sequential solution of the optimization
problem for each time period T.
Minimize ∑ lϵ A Cl ql (1)
Subject to ∑ lϵ Qi ql - ∑ kϵ Ii qk = bit (q) For all Nodes i-N (2)
lit(q) ≤ ql ≤ ult (q) For all links l-A (3)
Where: A is the set of all links in the network;
N the set of all nodes;
Oi the set of all links originating at node i (i.e., outflow links);
Li the set of all links terminating at node i (i.e., inflow links);
bit it is the (positive) gain or (negative) loss at node i at time t;
qℓ is flow rate in link ℓ;
cℓ are costs, weighting factors, or water right priorities per unit flow in link ℓ;
lℓt are lower bounds, on flow in link ℓ at time t;
uℓt are upper bounds, on flow in link ℓ at time t;
Allowing reach parameters lℓt, uℓt and node supplies bit to vary as functions of network flow vector (q)
introduces non-network constraints into the problem. These nonlinearities are due to reservoir surface area
dependent calculation of evaporation, groundwater return flows, channel losses, in stream flow requirements, and
equitable flow distribution to demands not governed by water rights or other priorities.
 3

3. DATA ANALYSIS AND MODEL CALIBRATION

Analysis of historical river flow at Aswan for the period 1870-2006, shows a wide range of flow data
from minimum flow of about 55 BCM up to maximum flow of about 135 BCM (neglecting the most fare points).
Collected river data are applied for the lower Nile to study different operation scenarios for river basin
management in the area of main Nile in Egypt by applying MODSIM simulation software.
Figure 1 shows the results of optimal water released downstream of Aswan High Dam showing the
effect of AHD construction on the river flow pattern and has more effects on power generation and water quality,
etc. Figures 2a-2e show Lower Nile basin schematization from lake Nasser until end of Nile Delta branches
Damietta and Rosetta which the water resources and demands were represented by nodes (70 Irrigation, 56
Domestic, and 20 Industrial Nodes), These nodes were connected by flow links represents river reaches and
streams.

Figure (1) Average Monthly Nile Flow At Aswan Before And After Construction Of Aswan High Dam
(AHD).

For model calibration, results from application in the lower Nile Basin are used. The modeled flow
downstream AHD were compared with the average actual flow release downstream AHD for the period from
1991-2010. The yearly mean percentage relative error (MPRE) is computed as follow:

In addition, the accuracy of the modeled values through each month is obtained by calculating the
monthly percentage error as follow:
 4

(2a) (2b)

(2c) (2d)
 5

(2e)
Figure (2a)-(2e): Schematization of lower Nile Basin by MODSIM

Figure 3 represents the modeled and actual monthly flow released from AHD showing that the actual
flow exceeds the required flow through September to the end of April, because of the effect of winter climate, in
which low temperature and rainfall especially in the Delta north, which affect in the crop requirements and
farmers behavior. In addition, for months from May to August the actual flows released from AHD are less than
the modeled flow.
Comparison between modeled flow from AHD with the actual average flow from AHD results small
error percentage during the year, which varied from +13.18 % to -5.13 % where the maximum error were during
January and December, and P% of 0.01 % for the total yearly flow downstream AHD. The value of MPRE
through the year between the modeled monthly flow downstream AHD and the average monthly actual flow
from AHD was calculated 1.89.

Figure (3) Actual monthly flow vs. simulated flow D.S. AHD

4. MODEL RESULTS AND DISCUSSIONS

 6

To study the effects of GERD on the Nile basin management especially in the area of main Nile in
Egypt in which the main objective is to analyze potential impacts mainly on AHD reservoir, different operation
scenarios for GERD first impounding stages and normal operation after filling were conducted.
In addition, different operation scenarios pre-construction of GERD based on the various hydrological
flow conditions from both Blue Nile and Atbara River were conducted to study the effect of Blue Nile natural
flow on the flow value, that reach AHD reservoir.
The analysis of Blue Nile natural flow, recorded at Deim gauge station which is located at the end of
Ethiopian plateau about 2590 km upstream of Old Aswan Dam, Figure 4 shows various hydrological flow
conditions for Blue Nile flow.

Figure (4) Variable hydrological flow from Blue Nile at Diem gauge station

Figure (5) Annual flow from Blue Nile 1966-2002 at Diem gauge station

To study the effect of hydrological flow condition from Blue Nile and Atbara River Pre-GERD
operation based on natural flow from both Blue Nile and Atbara River (i.e. average, minimum, and minimum of
average range) are applied as following:
1. Normal flow from both Blue Nile and Atbara River (Base case)
2. Minimum flow from Blue Nile with average flow from Atbara River
3. Minimum of average range from Blue Nile with average flow from Atbara River
4. Minimum flow from both Blue Nile and Atbara River

Figure (6) Effect of Blue Nile flow condition on Lake Nasser live storage
 7

The operation scenarios which were conducted pre-operation of GERD reservoir showed that the active
storage of AHD were reached its initial value through the end of each year at normal hydrological flow condition
of Blue Nile. In the case of minimum flow or minimum of average range the live storage volume decrease from
its initial storage volume of 90.7 BCM by 23.07% and 13.67% respectively considering normal flow from river
Atbara and volume decreases percentage of 34% at minimum flows from both Blue Nile and Atbara River.
This research studies the impounding scenarios of GERD reservoir to full capacity of 74 BCM [9],
considering different hydrological flow conditions from Blue Nile, and assuming the reservoir filling during the
months of peak flood from July to November through different period; 6, 3, and 2 years.
Figure 7 represents the operation scenarios which were conducted to simulate the impounding stage of
GERD reservoir at Normal flow case through 6, 3, and 2 years will decrease the active storage of Lake Nasser
(90.7 BCM) by 13.287, 25.413 and 37.263 BCM through each year.

Figure (7) Lake Nasser Live storage through GERD filling at normal flow from Blue Nile

Figure 8 presents the operation scenarios to simulate the impounding stage of GERD reservoir at
minimum of average range flow through 6, 3, and 2 years will decrease the active storage of Lake Nasser by
25.963, 37.814 and 45.105 BCM through each year of filling period.

Figure (8) Lake Nasser Live storage through GERD filling at min of av. flow from Blue Nile

Figure 9 represents the operation scenarios, which conducted to simulate the impounding, stage of
GERD reservoir at min flow case through 6, 3, and 2 years which indicates a decrease in the active storage of
Lake Nasser by 44.398, 54.415 and 55.138 BCM through each year of filling period.
 8

Figure (9) Lake Nasser Live storage through GERD filling at min flow from Blue Nile

Continuous impounding of GERD reservoir considering normal flow condition from both Blue Nile and
Atbara River through 6 years to fill GERD reservoir to its full capacity results continuous decrease in Lake
Nasser storage volume, as shown in Figure 10. The water shortage downstream AHD depends on the initial
storage in Lake Nasser.
.

Figure (10) Effect of continues impounding of GERD reservoir on Lake Nasser storage through 6 years of
normal flow from Blue Nile

5. CONCLUSIONS
The present methodology of using river basin modeling and simulation program MODSIM provides an
effective tool to best simulate the complex water system and evaluate different operation scenarios. Applying
such methodology based on the proposed impounding scenarios of Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD)
indicated that the construction of GERD will result in severe adverse impacts on the Egypt water share by
reducing the active storage of Lake Nasser as given below:
1. Impounding of GERD at Normal flow case through 6, 3, and 2 years will decrease the active storage of Lake
Nasser by 13.287, 25.413 and 37.263 BCM through each year. The shortage of about 19% if impounding takes
place in six years under normal flow agreed will with the results obtained by Mulat and Moges [10].
2. Impounding of GERD at min flow from Blue Nile through 6, 3, and 2 years will decrease the active storage of
Lake Nasser by 44.398, 54.415 and 55.138 BCM through each year.
3. Impounding of GERD at min of average flow from Blue Nile through 6, 3, and 2 years will decrease the active
storage of Lake Nasser by 25.963, 37.814 and 45.105 BCM/year.
4. Continuous impounding of GERD at normal flow hydrological stage through 6 years will result in downstream
water shortage of 13 BCM or a reduction of 19%depending on the initial storage of Lake Nasser but, of course,
it will be less severe than other scenarios of impounding in period less than 6 years.

REFERENCES
1. E. M. Ramadan, A.M. Negm and T. M. Owais , " Effect of new upper Nile projects on the integrated
management of the basin: review and methodology””, Fifteen International Water Technology Conference,
IWTC 15, 28-30 May, 2011, Alex., Egypt
2. IPoE, International Panel of Experts, The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam Project (GERDP), Final report,
Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, May, 31st , 2013.
 9

3. R.R. Ali, Scenarios of the Ethiopian Renaissance Dam Altitude and Relevant Reservoir by Using DEM and 3D
Analysis, Middle East Journal of Applied Sciences, 4(2): 151-156, 2014.
4. A. M. Sharaki, “water projects in Ethiopia and its implications for the future of the Nile waters, the prospects for
cooperation and integration among the Nile Basin countries, Opportunities and Challenges”, the Institute of
African Research and Studies, Cairo University, pp. 151-192, 2010.
5. A. M. Sharaki, Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (Millennium Dam) and influence in Egypt and northern
Sudan, and the future of Egypt's relations with Nile Basin countries, , the "Revolution 25 January 2011 May 31,
2011, The Institute of African Research and Studies, Cairo University, 2011.
6. CUF, Cairo University Forum, “Implications of Bridging the Ethiopian Renaissance on Egypt”, Nile Basin
Forum organized by Nile Basin Group, Cairo University (CU), 16 April 2013.
7. E. M. Ramadan, A. M. Negm, M.El- Sammany and A. H. Elsayed, Environmental Impacts of Great Ethiopian
Renaissance Dam on The Egyptian Water Resources Management And Security, Proceeding of 23 rd Int. Conf. on
Environmental Protection is a Must, May 11-13, 2013.
8. J. W. Labadie, D. G. Fontane and T. Dai., Integration of water quantity and quality in river basin network flow
modeling, ASCE Water Resource Planning and Management Annual Conference, May 23–26, Denver,
Colorado, ASCE, 1994.
9. E.M. Ramadan, Effect of New Upper Nile Projects on the Integrated Management of the Basin, Unpublished
PhD Thesis, Faculty of Engineering, Zagazig University, Egypt, 2013.
10. A.G. Mulat and S.A. Moges, Assessment of the Impact of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on the
Performance of the High Aswan Dam, Journal of Water Resources and Protection, 6, 583-598, 2014.

View publication stats