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grew 67% y/y and accounted for more than 47% of revenue. Over 80% of net-new Dividend $0.00 Shares O/S (mm) 232.2
customers in the Q chose one or more cloud deployments. EPS was $0.10 compared to Yield 0.0% Market Cap (mm) $14,462
our/consensus estimates of $0.11/$0.08. EV (mm) $12,932 AD Vol. (mm) 1.48
Billings Miss: Billings were $248 million or 33% y/y growth, compared to our/ BMO Estimates in $
consensus estimates of $256/$246 million. We think some customers booked and (FY-Jun.) 2017A 2018E 2019E
extended their contracts before the January 1st deadline to take advantage of price Revenue (mm) $620 $866 $1,138
discounts, which had led to deferred revenue being pulled forward to 1H18. Looking EPS $0.36 $0.47 $0.65
ahead, we expect billings and deferred revenues to face ongoing volatility due to
CFPS $0.78 $1.14 $1.42
planned annual price increases and customers’ reaction functions to price increase
announcements. Consensus Estimates
2017A 2018E 2019E
High customer adds: TEAM added 6,587 customers q/q, bringing total customers to
EPS $0.48 $0.67
119k+. In spite of lower-than-expected billings, the company’s strong customer growth
Valuation
furthers our confidence in TEAM’s positioning as a provider of group workflow, given
our view of the changing nature of work. Furthermore, we believe customers are 2017A 2018E 2019E
absorbing the price increases with limited pushback due to TEAM’s very low prices on P/E NM NM NM
an absolute basis. EV/FCF NM 46.7x 36.2x
EV/Revenue 20.9 14.9 11.4
Valuation: We are making modest changes to our estimates, though we believe that
Q4 guidance looks conservative. For example, we are lowering our FY19 FCF estimate QTR. EPS Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
from $372 million to $357 million. We are lowering our target price from $65 to $64. 2017A $0.10 $0.09 $0.08 $0.09
Our target price is based on an {(EV/FCF)/revenue growth} of ~1.3x, consistent with 2018E $0.12a $0.13a $0.10a $0.12
our previous target price. We retain our Market Perform rating. We think the stock is
2019E $0.15 $0.17 $0.17 $0.17
reasonable on an EV/FCF basis but expensive on an EV/revenue basis.
Key Changes
Target Estimates Q4/18E 2018E 2019E
$64.00 Revenue (mm) $236 $866 $1,138
$65.00 Previous $241 $873 $1,153
EPS $0.12 $0.47 $0.65
Previous $0.16 $0.52 $0.75 Our Thesis
CFPS $0.24 $1.14 $1.42
We like a lot about Atlassian, including what we
Previous $0.28 $1.19 $1.48
believe is a compelling product suite, as well as an
innovative distribution and pricing strategy. However,
we don’t believe the current valuation creates a
Please refer to pages 7 to 9 for Important Disclosures, including Analyst's Certification. favorable risk reward.
Atlassian Corp. Plc Class A - Block Summary Model
Top and bottom-line beats: Revenue was $224 million or about 40% y/y growth, compared to
our/consensus estimates of $225/$219 million. For the previous eight quarters, TEAM, on average, has
beaten consensus revenues by 3%. Subscription revenue grew 67% y/y and accounted for more than
47% of revenue. Over 80% of net-new customers in the Q chose one or more cloud deployments. In
addition, EPS was $0.10 compared to our/consensus estimates of $0.11/$0.08.
4% 35%
200 200
3% 30%
3% 150 25% 150
2% 20%
100 100
2% 15%
1% 10%
50 50
1% 5%
0% 0 0% 0
Q3 '16 Q4 '16 Q1 '17 Q2 '17 Q3 '17 Q4 '17 Q1 '18 Q2 '18 Q3 '18 Q3 '16 Q4 '16 Q1 '17 Q2 '17 Q3 '17 Q4 '17 Q1 '18 Q2 '18 Q3 '18
Billings Miss: Billings were $248 million or 33% y/y growth, compared to our/consensus estimates of
$256/$246 million. We think some customers booking and extending their contracts before the January
1st deadline to take advantage of price discounts contributed to deferred revenue being pulled forward
to 1H18. To be fair, we likely underappreciated the impact of price increases to the current Q's deferred
revenue. We expect the pull-forwards to have some impact on Q4, although to a lesser extent than in
Q3. Looking ahead, we expect billings and deferred revenue to face ongoing volatility due to planned
annual price increases and customers’ reaction functions to price increase announcements.
High customer adds: TEAM added 6,587 customers q/q, bringing total customers to 119k+. In spite of
lower-than-expected billings, the company’s strong customer growth furthers our confidence in TEAM’s
positioning as a provider of group workflow, given our view of the changing nature of work.
Furthermore, we believe customers are absorbing the price increases with limited pushback due to
TEAM’s very low prices on an absolute basis.
Conservative guidance: In the quarter, revenue beat the midpoint of guidance by $6 million and
management added $8 million to the FY18 mid-point guidance, thus net $2 million increase not
counting results for the Q. We think management is being conservative. For example, Q4 high-end
guidance of $234 million implies 5% sequential growth, compared to 5% in Q3 FY18 and 9% in Q4 FY17
Huge cash flow: FCF was $86 million or a 39% FCF margin, compared to our/consensus estimate of
$89/$80 million. Management reiterated $30 million capex guidance for FY18. Following the shift to
AWS, capex is expected to be spent on a facilities project basis.
Improved gross margin in future quarters: Gross margin was 83.5%, compared to our/consensus
estimate of 83.0%. Management said that gross margin should be higher in Q4 (85% guide) due to
TEAM having completely depreciated its data centers through Q3. We believe that gross margins will be
pressured in FY19 as more customers choose cloud deployments. A low base will support FY18 margin
growth, given expenses related to the Trello acquisition in FY17. Margin growth rate should slow from
~200bps y/y in FY18 to ~100bps y/y in FY19. That said, we think investors will look past decelerating
margin growth, as long as TEAM keeps beating subscription revenue and billings estimates.
Our forecasts: We are making minor adjustments to our estimates. For FY18, our new estimates are $866
million in revenue, $0.47 in EPS, $962 million in billings, and $277 million in FCF. Our previous estimates
were $873 million in revenue, $0.52 in EPS, $975 million in billings, and $290 million in FCF. For FY19,
our new estimates are $1,138 million in revenue, $0.65 in EPS, $1,214 million in billings, and $357
million in FCF. Our previous estimates were $1,153 million in revenue, $0.75 in EPS, $1,230 million in
billings, and $372 million in FCF.
Valuation: We are making modest changes to our estimates, though we believe that Q4 guidance looks
conservative. For example, we are lowering our FY19 FCF estimate from $372 million to $357 million.
We are lowering our target price from $65 to $64. Our target price is based on an {(EV/FCF)/rev growth}
of ~1.3x, consistent with our previous target price. We retain our Market Perform rating. We think the
stock is reasonable on an EV/FCF basis but expensive on an EV/revenue basis.
Jun-17
Jul-17
Sep-17
Oct-17
Nov-17
Feb-18
May-17
Dec-17
Jan-18
Mar-18
Aug-17
Apr-17
May-17
Jun-17
Jul-17
Feb-18
Sep-17
Oct-17
Nov-17
Dec-17
Jan-18
Mar-18
Aug-17
Source: FactSet
IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES
Analyst's Certification
I, Keith Bachman, hereby certify that the views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject securities or
issuers. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views
expressed in this report.
Analysts who prepared this report are compensated based upon (among other factors) the overall profitability of BMO Capital Markets and
their affiliates, which includes the overall profitability of investment banking services. Compensation for research is based on effectiveness in
generating new ideas and in communication of ideas to clients, performance of recommendations, accuracy of earnings estimates, and service
to clients.
Analysts employed by BMO Nesbitt Burns Inc. and/or BMO Capital Markets Limited are not registered as research analysts with FINRA. These
analysts may not be associated persons of BMO Capital Markets Corp. and therefore may not be subject to the FINRA Rule 2241 restrictions on
communications with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst account.
Methodology and Risks to Target Price/Valuation for Atlassian Corp. Plc Class A (TEAM-NSDQ)
Methodology: Our target price is based on an EV/FY2019E FCF multiple of ~40x and an {(EV/FCF)/revenue growth} multiple of ~1.3x.
Risks: Risks to our target price include slower revenue from increased competition, price sensitivity, and lack of product diversification. If
these risks are greater than we expect, the stock could have difficulty achieving our target price. Likewise, if these risks are less than we
expect, the stock could trade above our target price.
* Reflects rating distribution of all companies covered by BMO Capital Markets Corp. equity research analysts.
** Reflects rating distribution of all companies from which BMO Capital Markets Corp. has received compensation for Investment Banking services
as percentage within ratings category.
*** Reflects rating distribution of all companies from which BMO Capital Markets Corp. has received compensation for Investment Banking
services as percentage of Investment Banking clients.
**** Reflects rating distribution of all companies covered by BMO Capital Markets equity research analysts.
***** Reflects rating distribution of all companies from which BMO Capital Markets has received compensation for Investment Banking services
as percentage of Investment Banking clients.
Ratings Key (as of October 2016)
We use the following ratings system definitions:
OP = Outperform - Forecast to outperform the analyst’s coverage universe on a total return basis;
Mkt = Market Perform - Forecast to perform roughly in line with the analyst’s coverage universe on a total return basis;
A member of
Atlassian Corp. Plc Class A | Page 9 April 19, 2018