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April 19, 2018 | 22:47 ET | 22:47 ET~

Atlassian Corp. Plc Class A

TEAM-NSDQ Rating Price: Apr-19 Target  Total Rtn Software


Market Perform $62.27 $64.00 3%
Keith Bachman, CFA Analyst
keith.bachman@bmo.com (212) 885-4010

Jung Pak Senior Associate


Very Good, Against Great Expectations jung.pak@bmo.com (310) 395-0456

Steven Schneiderman Associate


steve.schneiderman@bmo.com (212) 885-4020
Bottom Line: We think results were solid, highlighted by impressive customer account
Legal Entity: BMO Capital Markets Corp.
growth. However, billings miss will likely pressure the stock near term. Price increases,
combined with related customer pull-in, including maintenance in the March Q, caused 2YR Price Volume Chart
70
(and likely will continue to cause at subsequent price changes) volatility around
60
deferred revenue and billings. Nevertheless, we think customer account growth
suggests that fundamentals remain positive. We could potentially get more constructive 50
8
at a lower entry point. We lower our target price from $65 to $64 and retain our Market 40 6
Perform rating. 30
4
2
20 0
Key Points Oct Apr Oct Apr
LHS: Price ($) / RHS: Volume (mm) Source: FactSet
Beats across the board: Revenue was $224 million or about 40% y/y growth,
compared to our/consensus estimates of $225/$219 million. Subscription revenue Company Data in $

grew 67% y/y and accounted for more than 47% of revenue. Over 80% of net-new Dividend $0.00 Shares O/S (mm) 232.2
customers in the Q chose one or more cloud deployments. EPS was $0.10 compared to Yield 0.0% Market Cap (mm) $14,462
our/consensus estimates of $0.11/$0.08. EV (mm) $12,932 AD Vol. (mm) 1.48

Billings Miss: Billings were $248 million or 33% y/y growth, compared to our/ BMO Estimates in $
consensus estimates of $256/$246 million. We think some customers booked and (FY-Jun.) 2017A 2018E 2019E
extended their contracts before the January 1st deadline to take advantage of price Revenue (mm) $620 $866 $1,138
discounts, which had led to deferred revenue being pulled forward to 1H18. Looking EPS $0.36 $0.47 $0.65
ahead, we expect billings and deferred revenues to face ongoing volatility due to
CFPS $0.78 $1.14 $1.42
planned annual price increases and customers’ reaction functions to price increase
announcements. Consensus Estimates
2017A 2018E 2019E
High customer adds: TEAM added 6,587 customers q/q, bringing total customers to
EPS $0.48 $0.67
119k+. In spite of lower-than-expected billings, the company’s strong customer growth
Valuation
furthers our confidence in TEAM’s positioning as a provider of group workflow, given
our view of the changing nature of work. Furthermore, we believe customers are 2017A 2018E 2019E

absorbing the price increases with limited pushback due to TEAM’s very low prices on P/E NM NM NM
an absolute basis. EV/FCF NM 46.7x 36.2x
EV/Revenue 20.9 14.9 11.4
Valuation: We are making modest changes to our estimates, though we believe that
Q4 guidance looks conservative. For example, we are lowering our FY19 FCF estimate QTR. EPS Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
from $372 million to $357 million. We are lowering our target price from $65 to $64. 2017A $0.10 $0.09 $0.08 $0.09
Our target price is based on an {(EV/FCF)/revenue growth} of ~1.3x, consistent with 2018E $0.12a $0.13a $0.10a $0.12
our previous target price. We retain our Market Perform rating. We think the stock is
2019E $0.15 $0.17 $0.17 $0.17
reasonable on an EV/FCF basis but expensive on an EV/revenue basis.
Key Changes
Target Estimates Q4/18E 2018E 2019E
$64.00 Revenue (mm) $236 $866 $1,138
$65.00 Previous $241 $873 $1,153
EPS $0.12 $0.47 $0.65
Previous $0.16 $0.52 $0.75 Our Thesis
CFPS $0.24 $1.14 $1.42
We like a lot about Atlassian, including what we
Previous $0.28 $1.19 $1.48
believe is a compelling product suite, as well as an
innovative distribution and pricing strategy. However,
we don’t believe the current valuation creates a
Please refer to pages 7 to 9 for Important Disclosures, including Analyst's Certification. favorable risk reward.
Atlassian Corp. Plc Class A - Block Summary Model

Income Statement 2017A 2018E 2019E


Revenue $620 $866 $1,138
Cost of Revenues 98 139 180 Valuation
Gross Profit 522 727 958 Our target price is based on an EV/FY2019E FCF multiple of
Operating Expenses 418 563 729 ~40x and an {(EV/FCF)/revenue growth} multiple of ~1.3x.

Operating profit (Non-GAAP) 104 164 229 Upside Scenario $70.00


Other income (expense) 3 4 0 Our upside case for TEAM is $70 based on revenue growth
of 32.4% and FCF margin of 32.3% with a target multiple
Earnings Before Taxes 108 169 229
of 44.0x EV/FY2019E FCF. Our upside case includes an
Taxes 23 54 64 additional 100 bps of revenue growth and 100 bps of FCF
Net Income (Non-GAAP) 85 115 165 margin versus our base case assumption.

EPS (Non-GAAP) $0.36 $0.47 $0.65 Downside Scenario $53.00


Diluted Shares Outstanding 236.3 243.9 252.0 Our downside case for TEAM is $53 based on revenue
growth of 28.4% and FCF margin of 29.3% with a target
Cash Flow Statement 2017A 2018E 2019E
multiple of 37.5x EV/FY2019E FCF. Our downside case
Depreciation & Amortization 62 88 114 reduces 300 bps from revenue growth and 200 bps from FCF
Stock-based Compensation 137 174 228 margin versus our base case assumption.

Change in Working Capital 65 113 114 in USD

Cash From Operating 199 301 384


-15% +3% +12%
Capex (15) (24) (27)
Cash From Investing (225) (96) (27) Downside Current Target Upside
Scenario Price Price Scenario
Cash Flow From Financing 9 3 0 53.00 62.27 64.00 70.00
Net Change in Cash (15) 209 357
Key Catalysts
Free Cash Flow 184 277 357
Upside to consensus billings estimates
Balance Sheet 2017A 2018E 2019E
Company Description
Cash and Cash Equivalents 550 824 1,181
Atlassian provides collaboration and software development
Total Current Assets 612 906 1,270 tools designed to help teams organize, communicate, and
complete work more efficiently. In addition, Atlassian has
Total Assets 1,284 1,445 1,797
a unique go-to-market strategy that utilizes viral marketing
Current Liabilities 327 443 555 to drive sales through its website rather than a traditional
Deferred revenues (ST & LT) 256 352 428 quota-carrying sales force.

Total debt (ST & LT) 0 0 0


Total Liabilities 341 464 585
Total Shareholders' Equity 894 928 1,157
Source: BMO Capital Markets, Company Reports

TEAM-NSDQ Industry Company


Research Research Models

Atlassian Corp. Plc Class A | Page 2 April 19, 2018


Thoughts on the Quarter

Top and bottom-line beats: Revenue was $224 million or about 40% y/y growth, compared to
our/consensus estimates of $225/$219 million. For the previous eight quarters, TEAM, on average, has
beaten consensus revenues by 3%. Subscription revenue grew 67% y/y and accounted for more than
47% of revenue. Over 80% of net-new customers in the Q chose one or more cloud deployments. In
addition, EPS was $0.10 compared to our/consensus estimates of $0.11/$0.08.

Exhibit 1: Earnings Snapshot


Atlassian Corp. Q3 2018 Earnings Snapshot
## 183 183 183 183 ## 183 183 ## 183 183 ## 183 183
Q3 BMO Street Q3 LY FY Guidance
Actual Guidance Projections D vs. BMO Projections D vs. Street Actual D vs. LY Q3 vs. LQ
Billings
Total billings $248.1 $256.0 (3.1%) $246.3 0.7% $187.1 32.6%
Revenue
Total Revenue $223.7 $217 – $219 $225.3 (0.7%) $218.8 2.3% $159.9 39.9% $862 – $864 $853 – $857
Gross Profit $186.8 $187.0 (0.1%) $181.7 2.8% $133.8 39.6%
% Margin 83.5% 83% 83.0% 50 bps 83.0% 45 bps 83.7% -16 bps 84.0% 84.0%
Operating Profit $38.4 $44.0 (12.8%) $37.6 2.0% $24.5 56.6%
% Margin 17.1% 17% 19.5% -239 bps 17.2% -4 bps 15.3% 183 bps 19.0% 19.0%
Net Income (Non-IFRS) $24.6 $26.4 (6.9%) $20.9 17.8% $18.9 29.9%
EPS (Non-IFRS) $0.10 $0.08 $0.11 (7.2%) $0.08 19.5% $0.08 24.8% $0.47 – $0.48 $0.47 – $0.48
Operating Cash Flow $91.68 $98.31 (6.7%) $91.4 0.3% $72.9 25.7%
% Margin 41.0% 43.6% -265 bps 41.8% -81 bps 45.6% -463 bps
Free Cash Flow $86.38 $89.30 (3.3%) $79.8 8.2% $68.3 26.5% $265 – $272 $260 – $270
% Margin 38.6% 39.6% -102 bps 36.5% 213 bps 42.7% -410 bps

Source: BMO Capital Markets estimates, FactSet, company reports

Exhibit 2: Revenue and EPS Surprise


5% 300 50% 300
Revenue Surprise TEAM Price S&P Price Earnings Surprise TEAM Price S&P Price
5% 45%
250 250
4% 40%

Stock Price Indexed (%)


Stock Price Indexed (%)

Earnings Surprise (%)


Revenue Surprise (%)

4% 35%
200 200
3% 30%
3% 150 25% 150
2% 20%
100 100
2% 15%
1% 10%
50 50
1% 5%
0% 0 0% 0
Q3 '16 Q4 '16 Q1 '17 Q2 '17 Q3 '17 Q4 '17 Q1 '18 Q2 '18 Q3 '18 Q3 '16 Q4 '16 Q1 '17 Q2 '17 Q3 '17 Q4 '17 Q1 '18 Q2 '18 Q3 '18

Source: FactSet, company reports

Billings Miss: Billings were $248 million or 33% y/y growth, compared to our/consensus estimates of
$256/$246 million. We think some customers booking and extending their contracts before the January
1st deadline to take advantage of price discounts contributed to deferred revenue being pulled forward
to 1H18. To be fair, we likely underappreciated the impact of price increases to the current Q's deferred
revenue. We expect the pull-forwards to have some impact on Q4, although to a lesser extent than in
Q3. Looking ahead, we expect billings and deferred revenue to face ongoing volatility due to planned
annual price increases and customers’ reaction functions to price increase announcements.

High customer adds: TEAM added 6,587 customers q/q, bringing total customers to 119k+. In spite of
lower-than-expected billings, the company’s strong customer growth furthers our confidence in TEAM’s
positioning as a provider of group workflow, given our view of the changing nature of work.
Furthermore, we believe customers are absorbing the price increases with limited pushback due to
TEAM’s very low prices on an absolute basis.

Conservative guidance: In the quarter, revenue beat the midpoint of guidance by $6 million and
management added $8 million to the FY18 mid-point guidance, thus net $2 million increase not
counting results for the Q. We think management is being conservative. For example, Q4 high-end
guidance of $234 million implies 5% sequential growth, compared to 5% in Q3 FY18 and 9% in Q4 FY17

Atlassian Corp. Plc Class A | Page 3 April 19, 2018


and 7% in Q3 FY17. Further, Q4 EPS guide was $0.12, below consensus estimate of $0.14. Management
maintained the FY18 EPS guide.

Huge cash flow: FCF was $86 million or a 39% FCF margin, compared to our/consensus estimate of
$89/$80 million. Management reiterated $30 million capex guidance for FY18. Following the shift to
AWS, capex is expected to be spent on a facilities project basis.

Improved gross margin in future quarters: Gross margin was 83.5%, compared to our/consensus
estimate of 83.0%. Management said that gross margin should be higher in Q4 (85% guide) due to
TEAM having completely depreciated its data centers through Q3. We believe that gross margins will be
pressured in FY19 as more customers choose cloud deployments. A low base will support FY18 margin
growth, given expenses related to the Trello acquisition in FY17. Margin growth rate should slow from
~200bps y/y in FY18 to ~100bps y/y in FY19. That said, we think investors will look past decelerating
margin growth, as long as TEAM keeps beating subscription revenue and billings estimates.

Our forecasts: We are making minor adjustments to our estimates. For FY18, our new estimates are $866
million in revenue, $0.47 in EPS, $962 million in billings, and $277 million in FCF. Our previous estimates
were $873 million in revenue, $0.52 in EPS, $975 million in billings, and $290 million in FCF. For FY19,
our new estimates are $1,138 million in revenue, $0.65 in EPS, $1,214 million in billings, and $357
million in FCF. Our previous estimates were $1,153 million in revenue, $0.75 in EPS, $1,230 million in
billings, and $372 million in FCF.

Exhibit 3: Estimate Changes


Old FY2018E Fiscal Year New FY2018E Fiscal Year
Q4 2018E 2019E Q4 2018E 2019E
BMO BMO
Revenue $241 $873 $1,153 Revenue $236 $866 $1,138
Billings $267 $975 $1,230 Billings $262 $962 $1,214
FCF $70 $290 $372 FCF $60 $277 $357
EPS $0.16 $0.52 $0.75 EPS $0.12 $0.47 $0.65

Source: BMO Capital Markets estimates, company reports

Valuation: We are making modest changes to our estimates, though we believe that Q4 guidance looks
conservative. For example, we are lowering our FY19 FCF estimate from $372 million to $357 million.
We are lowering our target price from $65 to $64. Our target price is based on an {(EV/FCF)/rev growth}
of ~1.3x, consistent with our previous target price. We retain our Market Perform rating. We think the
stock is reasonable on an EV/FCF basis but expensive on an EV/revenue basis.

Atlassian Corp. Plc Class A | Page 4 April 19, 2018


Exhibit 4: TEAM Analysis at Various Prices
TEAM Analysis at Various Prices - as of Q3 2018
Current Target
Market Price $56.0 $60.0 $62.0 $64.0 $66.0 $68.0
Premium to Current – 7.1% 10.7% 14.3% 17.9% 21.4%
Diluted Shares 244.6 244.6 244.6 244.6 244.6 244.6
Market Capitalization $13,696 $14,675 $15,164 $15,653 $16,142 $16,631
Debt – – – – – –
Cash ($764) ($764) ($764) ($764) ($764) ($764)
Enterprise Value $12,932 $13,911 $14,400 $14,889 $15,378 $15,867
Metric
EV/Revenues
NTM $1,066 12.1x 13.0x 13.5x 14.0x 14.4x 14.9x
CY2018 $996 13.0x 14.0x 14.5x 15.0x 15.4x 15.9x
FY2018 $866 14.9x 16.1x 16.6x 17.2x 17.8x 18.3x
FY2019 $1,138 11.4x 12.2x 12.6x 13.1x 13.5x 13.9x
P/E - Non-GAAP
NTM $0.60 93.0x 99.6x 103.0x 106.3x 109.6x 112.9x
CY2018 $0.54 104.4x 111.9x 115.6x 119.3x 123.1x 126.8x
FY2018 $0.47 118.6x 127.1x 131.3x 135.5x 139.8x 144.0x
FY2019 $0.65 85.8x 91.9x 95.0x 98.0x 101.1x 104.2x
EV/EBITDA
NTM $321 40.2x 43.3x 44.8x 46.3x 47.8x 49.4x
CY2018 $290 44.5x 47.9x 49.6x 51.3x 53.0x 54.7x
FY2018 $252 51.3x 55.2x 57.1x 59.1x 61.0x 62.9x
FY2019 $343 37.7x 40.6x 42.0x 43.4x 44.9x 46.3x
EV/FCF
NTM $314 41.1x 44.3x 45.8x 47.4x 48.9x 50.5x
CY2018 $296 43.7x 47.0x 48.6x 50.3x 51.9x 53.6x
FY2018 $277 46.7x 50.2x 52.0x 53.8x 55.5x 57.3x
FY2019 $357 36.2x 39.0x 40.4x 41.7x 43.1x 44.5x

Source: BMO Capital Markets estimates, company reports

Exhibit 5: TEAM EV/Revs (NTM) Exhibit 6: TEAM EV/FCF (NTM)


50.0x
15x
14x
45.0x
13x
12x 40.0x
11x
35.0x
10x
9x
30.0x
8x
7x 25.0x
6x
5x 20.0x
Apr-17

Jun-17

Jul-17

Sep-17

Oct-17

Nov-17

Feb-18
May-17

Dec-17

Jan-18

Mar-18
Aug-17
Apr-17

May-17

Jun-17

Jul-17

Feb-18
Sep-17

Oct-17

Nov-17

Dec-17

Jan-18

Mar-18
Aug-17

TEAM EV/Revenue (NTM) TEAM EV/FCF (NTM)

EV/Revenue (NTM) 1-yr EV/FCF (NTM) 1-yr


Current 13.6x Current 44.3x
Mean 10.8x Mean 36.2x
Median 10.2x Median 35.6x
Min 8.7x Min 30.1x
Max 13.8x Max 44.9x
Std. Dev. 1.5x Std. Dev. 4.0x

Source: FactSet

Atlassian Corp. Plc Class A | Page 5 April 19, 2018


Exhibit 7: Income Statement
Atlassian Corp. Income Statement FY2016 FY2017 FY2018 FY2019
($ in millions except per share) Sep-15A Dec-15A Mar-16A Jun-16A Sep-16A Dec-16A Mar-17A Jun-17A Sep-17A Dec-17A Mar-18A Jun-18E Sep-18E Dec-18E Mar-19E Jun-19E FY2016A FY2017A FY2018E FY2019E
Revenue
Subscription $30.5 $33.9 $38.7 $43.6 $49.9 $56.3 $63.4 $72.5 $84.4 $95.8 $105.6 $115.3 $128.3 $143.7 $157.3 $169.5 $146.7 $242.1 $401.1 $598.8
Maintenance 50.4 53.5 56.2 58.8 61.7 65.1 67.1 71.6 76.3 80.4 82.0 84.5 89.3 93.2 94.2 96.4 218.8 265.5 323.2 373.1
Perpetual license 15.5 15.6 16.4 17.9 17.5 18.2 19.5 19.4 19.9 21.8 21.3 21.1 20.9 22.4 22.3 22.2 65.5 74.6 84.1 87.8
Other 5.5 6.6 6.6 7.3 7.6 9.3 10.0 10.8 13.2 14.7 14.9 15.0 18.1 20.0 20.3 20.3 26.1 37.7 57.8 78.6
Total revenue $101.8 $109.7 $117.9 $127.6 $136.8 $148.9 $159.9 $174.3 $193.8 $212.6 $223.7 $236.0 $256.5 $279.3 $294.2 $308.3 $457.1 $619.9 $866.1 $1,138.4
Cost of revenue $13.5 $15.3 $16.6 $17.6 $19.0 $23.2 $26.1 $29.4 $31.8 $34.7 $36.9 $35.4 $41.0 $46.1 $47.1 $46.2 $63.0 $97.7 $138.8 $180.5
Non-IFRS gross profit $88.4 $94.4 $101.4 $110.0 $117.8 $125.7 $133.8 $145.0 $162.0 $177.9 $186.8 $200.6 $215.5 $233.2 $247.1 $262.1 $394.1 $522.2 $727.3 $957.9
Non-IFRS operating expenses
Research and development 39.5 40.1 44.7 48.3 50.5 53.6 60.6 66.1 68.9 74.3 83.2 87.0 92.0 97.0 101.0 111.0 172.6 230.8 313.4 401.0
Marketing and sales 13.5 18.6 21.7 27.6 21.3 24.1 26.4 30.4 30.2 29.7 33.8 37.0 41.0 43.0 49.0 50.0 81.4 102.2 130.7 183.0
General and administrative 12.4 15.4 16.8 18.5 18.2 20.4 22.2 24.1 26.8 29.6 31.4 31.0 33.0 36.0 37.0 39.0 63.0 85.0 118.8 145.0
Total non-IFRS operating expenses $65.4 $74.1 $83.1 $94.4 $90.0 $98.1 $109.3 $120.6 $125.9 $133.5 $148.4 $155.0 $166.0 $176.0 $187.0 $200.0 $317.0 $418.0 $562.9 $729.0
Non-IFRS operating income $22.9 $20.3 $18.3 $15.6 $27.8 $27.6 $24.5 $24.3 $36.1 $44.4 $38.4 $45.6 $49.5 $57.2 $60.1 $62.1 $77.1 $104.2 $164.5 $228.9
Depreciation and amortization 4.5 5.4 5.7 6.3 8.0 11.3 18.5 23.8 20.6 21.0 20.1 26.0 25.7 27.9 29.4 30.8 21.9 61.5 87.6 113.8
Non-IFRS EBITDA $27.5 $25.6 $23.9 $22.0 $35.8 $38.8 $43.0 $48.1 $56.7 $65.4 $58.5 $71.5 $75.2 $85.2 $89.5 $92.9 $99.0 $165.8 $252.1 $342.7
Non-IFRS non-operating income (0.6) (0.1) 0.8 0.9 1.3 1.2 0.5 0.5 0.6 1.1 2.7 – – – – – 1.0 3.4 4.4 –
Non-IFRS pretax income $22.4 $20.2 $19.0 $16.5 $29.0 $28.7 $25.0 $24.8 $36.7 $45.5 $41.1 $45.6 $49.5 $57.2 $60.1 $62.1 $78.1 $107.7 $168.8 $228.9
Provision for income taxes $4.0 $1.1 $2.0 ($0.4) $6.3 $7.1 $6.1 $3.2 $6.8 $14.5 $16.5 $16.0 $12.9 $14.9 $18.0 $18.6 $6.7 $22.7 $53.7 $64.4
Non-IFRS tax rate 18% 5% 11% -2% 22% 25% 24% 13% 18% 32% 40% 35% 26% 26% 30% 30% 9% 21% 32% 28%
Non-IFRS net income(1) $18.4 $19.1 $17.0 $16.9 $22.7 $21.7 $18.9 $21.6 $29.9 $31.0 $24.6 $29.6 $36.6 $42.4 $42.1 $43.4 $71.3 $84.9 $115.2 $164.5
Non-IFRS EPS(1) $0.10 $0.11 $0.07 $0.07 $0.10 $0.09 $0.08 $0.09 $0.12 $0.13 $0.10 $0.12 $0.15 $0.17 $0.17 $0.17 $0.35 $0.36 $0.47 $0.65
Avg. diluted shares outstanding 179.8 179.8 230.9 231.9 234.1 235.5 236.2 239.4 240.8 243.4 244.6 247.0 249.0 251.0 253.0 255.0 205.6 236.3 243.9 252.0
(1) Non-IFRS excludes; amortization of intangible assets, stock-based comp. and convert non-cash interest expense.
Margin Analysis (Non-IFRS):
Gross margin 86.8% 86.0% 85.9% 86.2% 86.1% 84.4% 83.7% 83.2% 83.6% 83.7% 83.5% 85.0% 84.0% 83.5% 84.0% 85.0% 86.2% 84.2% 84.0% 84.1%
Cost of revenues 13.2% 14.0% 14.1% 13.8% 13.9% 15.6% 16.3% 16.8% 16.4% 16.3% 16.5% 15.0% 16.0% 16.5% 16.0% 15.0% 13.8% 15.8% 16.0% 15.9%
Research and development 38.8% 36.5% 37.9% 37.8% 36.9% 36.0% 37.9% 37.9% 35.5% 34.9% 37.2% 36.9% 35.9% 34.7% 34.3% 36.0% 37.8% 37.2% 36.2% 35.2%
Marketing and sales 13.3% 17.0% 18.4% 21.6% 15.5% 16.2% 16.5% 17.5% 15.6% 13.9% 15.1% 15.7% 16.0% 15.4% 16.7% 16.2% 17.8% 16.5% 15.1% 16.1%
General and administrative 12.2% 14.0% 14.2% 14.5% 13.3% 13.7% 13.9% 13.8% 13.8% 13.9% 14.0% 13.1% 12.9% 12.9% 12.6% 12.6% 13.8% 13.7% 13.7% 12.7%
Depreciation & amortization 4.5% 4.9% 4.8% 5.0% 5.9% 7.6% 11.6% 13.6% 10.6% 9.9% 9.0% 11.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 4.8% 9.9% 10.1% 10.0%
Operating margin 22.5% 18.5% 15.5% 12.2% 20.3% 18.5% 15.3% 14.0% 18.6% 20.9% 17.1% 19.3% 19.3% 20.5% 20.4% 20.1% 16.9% 16.8% 19.0% 20.1%
EBITDA margin 27.0% 23.4% 20.3% 17.2% 26.2% 26.1% 26.9% 27.6% 29.3% 30.8% 26.1% 30.3% 29.3% 30.5% 30.4% 30.1% 21.7% 26.7% 29.1% 30.1%
Tax rate 17.9% 5.2% 10.8% (2.2%) 21.8% 24.6% 24.4% 13.0% 18.4% 31.8% 40.2% 35.0% 26.0% 26.0% 30.0% 30.0% 8.6% 21.1% 31.8% 28.1%
Net margin 18.1% 17.4% 14.4% 13.2% 16.6% 14.5% 11.8% 12.4% 15.4% 14.6% 11.0% 12.6% 14.3% 15.2% 14.3% 14.1% 15.6% 13.7% 13.3% 14.5%
Y/Y Growth (Non-IFRS):
Subscription 77.4% 68.9% 71.1% 67.5% 63.9% 66.1% 63.8% 66.3% 69.0% 70.1% 66.6% 59.0% 52.0% 50.0% 49.0% 47.0% 70.8% 65.1% 65.6% 49.3%
Maintenance 44.9% 39.2% 36.1% 28.1% 22.6% 21.6% 19.4% 21.8% 23.6% 23.5% 22.2% 18.0% 17.0% 16.0% 15.0% 14.0% 36.5% 21.3% 21.7% 15.5%
Perpetual license 20.0% 9.2% 10.8% 17.0% 12.9% 16.4% 18.7% 8.1% 13.9% 19.5% 9.1% 9.0% 5.0% 3.0% 5.0% 5.0% 14.1% 13.9% 12.7% 4.5%
Other 78.7% 123.6% 26.4% 58.9% 38.4% 40.2% 50.1% 48.7% 73.3% 57.9% 49.3% 39.0% 37.0% 36.0% 36.0% 35.0% 64.1% 44.7% 53.3% 36.0%
Total Revenue 49.9% 44.7% 40.5% 39.0% 34.3% 35.7% 35.6% 36.6% 41.7% 42.8% 39.9% 35.4% 32.4% 31.4% 31.5% 30.7% 43.0% 35.6% 39.7% 31.4%
Gross profit 51.9% 43.5% 39.2% 38.9% 33.3% 33.2% 32.0% 31.8% 37.6% 41.5% 39.6% 38.4% 33.0% 31.1% 32.3% 30.7% 42.8% 32.5% 39.3% 31.7%
Operating expenses 41.7% 46.9% 34.6% 39.1% 37.5% 32.4% 31.5% 27.8% 39.9% 36.1% 35.8% 28.5% 31.9% 31.8% 26.0% 29.0% 40.1% 31.9% 34.7% 29.5%
Operating income 91.3% 32.4% 64.9% 37.9% 21.2% 36.1% 34.2% 55.8% 29.9% 61.0% 56.6% 87.2% 37.1% 28.9% 56.7% 36.2% 55.1% 35.2% 57.8% 39.2%
Net income 65.3% 33.9% 80.4% 57.3% 23.6% 13.4% 11.6% 28.1% 31.8% 43.1% 29.9% 37.0% 22.3% 36.6% 71.1% 46.7% 56.7% 19.1% 35.6% 42.9%
EPS 49.3% 21.0% 28.0% 10.7% (5.1%) (13.5%) 9.1% 24.1% 28.2% 38.5% 25.5% 32.8% 18.3% 32.5% 65.4% 42.1% 24.2% 3.6% 31.4% 38.2%
Q/Q Growth (Non-IFRS):
Subscription and support 17.1% 11.3% 14.1% 12.7% 14.5% 12.8% 12.5% 14.4% 16.4% 13.5% 10.2% 9.2% 11.3% 12.0% 9.5% 7.7%
Professional Services and other 20.1% 20.8% 0.0% 9.6% 4.6% 22.3% 7.1% 8.5% 21.9% 11.5% 1.3% 1.0% 20.2% 10.6% 1.3% 0.3%
Total Revenue 10.9% 7.7% 7.5% 8.2% 7.2% 8.9% 7.4% 9.0% 11.2% 9.7% 5.2% 5.5% 8.7% 8.9% 5.3% 4.8%
Gross profit 11.6% 6.8% 7.4% 8.5% 7.1% 6.7% 6.4% 8.4% 11.8% 9.8% 5.0% 7.4% 7.4% 8.2% 6.0% 6.0%
Operating expenses (3.6%) 13.3% 12.2% 13.5% (4.6%) 9.1% 11.4% 10.4% 4.4% 6.1% 11.2% 4.4% 7.1% 6.0% 6.3% 7.0%
Operating income 102.5% (11.6%) (10.0%) (14.4%) 77.9% (0.8%) (11.2%) (0.6%) 48.3% 23.0% (13.6%) 18.8% 8.6% 15.6% 5.0% 3.2%
Net income 71.3% 4.0% (11.3%) (0.5%) 34.6% (4.6%) (12.6%) 14.2% 38.5% 3.5% (20.7%) 20.5% 23.7% 15.6% (0.6%) 3.2%
EPS 55.6% 4.0% (30.9%) (0.9%) 33.4% (5.2%) (12.9%) 12.7% 37.7% 2.4% (21.1%) 19.3% 22.7% 14.7% (1.4%) 2.4%

Source: BMO Capital Markets estimates, company reports

Exhibit 8: Cash Flow Statement


Atlassian Corp. Cash Flow Statement FY2016 FY2017 FY2018 FY2019
($ in millions except per share) Sep-15A Dec-15A Mar-16A Jun-16A Sep-16A Dec-16A Mar-17A Jun-17A Sep-17A Dec-17A Mar-18A Jun-18E Sep-18E Dec-18E Mar-19E Jun-19E FY2016A FY2017A FY2018E FY2019E
Operating Activities
IFRS pretax income $6.5 $3.3 ($4.2) ($10.5) ($3.9) ($1.5) ($22.5) ($31.8) ($21.7) ($14.2) ($8.1) ($22.9) ($19.8) ($18.2) ($19.3) ($21.2) ($4.9) ($59.7) ($66.9) ($78.4)
Depreciation and amortization 4.5 5.4 5.7 6.3 8.0 11.3 18.5 23.8 20.6 21.0 20.1 26.0 25.7 27.9 29.4 30.8 21.9 61.5 87.6 113.8
Net (gain) loss on disposal of PPE – 0.1 0.1 (0.0) (0.3) (0.1) (0.0) 0.0 (0.0) (0.0) (1.2) – – – – – 0.2 (0.4) (1.2) –
Net unrealized FX loss (gain) 0.6 (0.1) (0.4) 0.2 (0.1) (0.1) 0.2 0.1 (0.0) (0.1) 0.1 – – – – – 0.2 0.1 (0.1) –
Share-based payment expense 14.1 15.1 21.2 25.1 30.5 27.8 37.8 41.3 44.1 45.4 34.9 49.6 51.3 55.9 58.8 61.7 75.5 137.4 174.0 227.7
Interest income (0.0) (0.1) (0.7) (1.2) (1.3) (1.4) (1.0) (1.0) (1.3) (1.6) (2.0) – – – – – (2.1) (4.9) (4.8) –
Other LT liabilites – – – – 0.2 – – 2.0 – – 2.2
Other LT assets – – – – – – 2.0 3.2 – – 5.3
Changes in NWC: – – – – –
Trade receivable, net 1.2 (4.6) 1.0 (1.1) 0.6 (12.7) 2.2 (0.3) (3.7) (4.7) (3.5) 1.1 7.0 (12.1) 4.9 (2.1) (3.5) (10.2) (10.7) (2.3)
Prepaid expenses and other assets (2.8) 1.9 (0.8) (2.5) (5.2) 2.4 (0.1) (2.8) 3.8 (2.6) (0.2) (9.0) (0.1) (2.6) 0.4 (2.3) (4.2) (5.6) (8.1) (4.5)
Accts. payable, accrued exp. and other liab. (10.7) 6.0 10.7 5.6 (8.5) 5.1 12.7 1.6 1.2 5.1 27.3 1.1 (6.7) 13.8 18.4 19.1 11.6 10.9 34.7 44.5
Deferred revenue 6.7 7.6 15.3 15.0 7.7 16.6 25.0 23.3 22.2 23.5 24.3 26.0 20.0 18.2 17.1 20.5 44.5 72.6 96.1 75.8
Interest received 0.1 0.0 1.4 1.4 2.3 1.4 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.7 2.8 6.5 4.5 –
Income tax paid, net of refunds (5.7) (2.5) (1.0) (3.3) (1.4) (1.4) (1.3) (5.0) (1.3) (0.8) (1.7) (12.4) (9.0) (3.7) –
Cash flow from operating: $14.4 $31.9 $48.2 $35.0 $28.5 $47.4 $72.9 $50.6 $65.2 $72.3 $91.7 $71.9 $77.6 $82.9 $111.8 $111.8 $129.5 $199.4 $301.2 $384.1
Investing Activities
Business combinations – – – – ($18.3) ($362.8) – – – – – – – – – – ($381.1) – –
PP&E (6.2) (3.1) (7.5) ($17.4) (2.4) (2.9) (4.6) (5.2) (2.6) (4.6) (5.3) (11.8) (5.1) (5.6) (7.4) (9.2) (34.2) (15.1) (24.2) (27.3)
Purchases of intangible assets – – – – – – – (0.9) – – – – – – – – – (0.9) – –
Proceeds from sale of other assets 0.3 – – – – 1.0 0.3 1.0 –
Purchase of investments (4.4) (112.2) (318.8) (133.6) (151.7) (81.6) (105.0) (85.2) (102.3) (124.8) (64.9) – – – – – (569.1) (423.5) (292.0) –
Proceeds from maturities of investments 19.6 15.0 13.2 17.5 34.9 22.3 23.1 31.2 50.8 31.1 43.2 – – – – – 65.3 111.4 125.1 –
Proceeds from sales of investments – – 6.4 43.1 111.9 86.7 235.2 54.9 49.4 32.7 18.9 49.5 488.7 101.0 –
Increase in restricted cash (3.4) (0.0) (0.1) (3.0) (0.1) (3.4) (3.2) –
Payment of deferred consideration (1.0) – – – (0.2) (0.8) – – – – (3.3) – – – – – (1.0) (0.9) (3.3) –
Cash flow from investing: $8.0 ($100.3) ($306.8) ($90.4) ($25.5) $20.3 ($214.2) ($5.2) ($4.9) ($68.6) ($10.5) ($11.8) ($5.1) ($5.6) ($7.4) ($9.2) ($489.5) ($224.6) ($95.7) ($27.3)
Financing Activities
Proceeds from issuance of ordinary shares ($1.7) $433.2 – – – – – – – – – – – – – – $431.4 – – –
Proceeds from exercise of share options, 1.2 2.3 0.8 2.5 3.7 2.2 1.5 2.0 0.9 1.3 0.9 – – – – – 6.7 9.4 3.1 –
Employee payroll taxes related to EQ awards – (5.4) – – – – – – – – – – – – – – (5.4) – – –
Dividends paid to shareholders – – –
Cash flow from financing: ($0.5) $430.1 $0.8 $2.5 $3.7 $2.2 $1.5 $2.0 $0.9 $1.3 $0.9 – – – – – $432.8 $9.4 $3.1 –
Foreign currency impact (0.6) 0.3 0.4 ($0.2) $0.4 ($0.4) $0.4 $0.1 $0.2 ($0.0) $0.5 – – – – – ($0.2) $0.5 $0.6 –
Change in cash and equivalents $21.2 $361.9 ($257.4) ($53.2) $7.0 $69.4 ($139.3) $47.5 $61.5 $5.0 $82.6 $60.1 $72.4 $77.3 $104.5 $102.6 $72.6 ($15.3) $209.2 $356.8
Net cash - beginning balance 187.1 208.3 570.3 312.9 259.7 266.7 336.2 196.9 244.4 305.9 310.9 393.5 453.6 526.0 603.4 707.8 187.1 259.7 244.4 453.6
Net cash - ending balance $208.3 $570.3 $312.9 $259.7 $266.7 $336.2 $196.9 $244.4 $305.9 $310.9 $393.5 $453.6 $526.0 $603.4 $707.8 $810.4 $259.7 $244.4 $453.6 $810.4
Free cash flow $8.2 $28.8 $40.7 $17.6 $26.1 $44.5 $68.3 $44.5 $62.7 $67.8 $86.4 $60.1 $72.4 $77.3 $104.5 $102.6 $95.3 $184.3 $277.0 $356.8
Free cash flow per share $0.05 $0.16 $0.18 $0.08 $0.11 $0.19 $0.29 $0.19 $0.26 $0.28 $0.35 $0.24 $0.29 $0.31 $0.41 $0.40 $0.46 $0.78 $1.14 $1.42

Source: BMO Capital Markets estimates, company reports

Atlassian Corp. Plc Class A | Page 6 April 19, 2018


At la ssia n Corp. Plc Cla ss A Ra t ing Hist ory a s of 0 4 / 1 8 / 2 0 1 8
I:Mkt :$28.00Mkt :$29.00 Mkt :$33.00 Mkt :$40.00 Mkt :$42.00 Mkt :$43.00 Mkt :$51.00 Mkt :$56.00 Mkt :$65.00
01/04/17 01/20/17 04/28/17 07/06/17 07/26/17 07/28/17 10/19/17 01/18/18 04/17/18
$70
$60
$50
$40
$30
$20
$10
Jul 2015 Oct 2015 Jan 2016 Apr 2016 Jul 2016 Oct 2016 Jan 2017 Apr 2017 Jul 2017 Oct 2017 Jan 2018 Apr 2018

Closing Price Target Price


Out perform (OP); Market Perform (Mkt ); Underperform (Und); Speculat ive (S); Suspended (Spd); Not Rat ed (NR); Rest rict ed (R)

Source: Fact Set , BMO Capit al Market s

IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES
Analyst's Certification
I, Keith Bachman, hereby certify that the views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject securities or
issuers. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views
expressed in this report.
Analysts who prepared this report are compensated based upon (among other factors) the overall profitability of BMO Capital Markets and
their affiliates, which includes the overall profitability of investment banking services. Compensation for research is based on effectiveness in
generating new ideas and in communication of ideas to clients, performance of recommendations, accuracy of earnings estimates, and service
to clients.
Analysts employed by BMO Nesbitt Burns Inc. and/or BMO Capital Markets Limited are not registered as research analysts with FINRA. These
analysts may not be associated persons of BMO Capital Markets Corp. and therefore may not be subject to the FINRA Rule 2241 restrictions on
communications with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst account.

Methodology and Risks to Target Price/Valuation for Atlassian Corp. Plc Class A (TEAM-NSDQ)
Methodology: Our target price is based on an EV/FY2019E FCF multiple of ~40x and an {(EV/FCF)/revenue growth} multiple of ~1.3x.
Risks: Risks to our target price include slower revenue from increased competition, price sensitivity, and lack of product diversification. If
these risks are greater than we expect, the stock could have difficulty achieving our target price. Likewise, if these risks are less than we
expect, the stock could trade above our target price.

Distribution of Ratings (April 18, 2018)

Rating category BMOCM US BMOCM US IB BMOCM US IB BMOCM BMOCM IB StarMine


BMO rating
Universe* Clients** Clients*** Universe**** Clients***** Universe
Buy Outperform 48.3% 18.1% 52.7% 49.8% 55.3% 55.3%
Hold Market Perform 48.7% 15.0% 44.1% 47.1% 42.2% 39.7%
Sell Underperform 3.0% 17.6% 3.2% 3.1% 2.5% 5.0%

* Reflects rating distribution of all companies covered by BMO Capital Markets Corp. equity research analysts.
** Reflects rating distribution of all companies from which BMO Capital Markets Corp. has received compensation for Investment Banking services
as percentage within ratings category.
*** Reflects rating distribution of all companies from which BMO Capital Markets Corp. has received compensation for Investment Banking
services as percentage of Investment Banking clients.
**** Reflects rating distribution of all companies covered by BMO Capital Markets equity research analysts.
***** Reflects rating distribution of all companies from which BMO Capital Markets has received compensation for Investment Banking services
as percentage of Investment Banking clients.
Ratings Key (as of October 2016)
We use the following ratings system definitions:
OP = Outperform - Forecast to outperform the analyst’s coverage universe on a total return basis;
Mkt = Market Perform - Forecast to perform roughly in line with the analyst’s coverage universe on a total return basis;

Atlassian Corp. Plc Class A | Page 7 April 19, 2018


Und = Underperform - Forecast to underperform the analyst’s coverage universe on a total return basis;
(S) = Speculative investment;
Spd = Suspended - Coverage and rating suspended until coverage is reinstated;
NR = No Rated - No rating at this time; and
R = Restricted - Dissemination of research is currently restricted.
BMO Capital Markets' seven Top 15 lists guide investors to our best ideas according to different objectives (CDN Large Cap, CDN Small Cap, US
Large Cap, US Small Cap, Income, CDN Quant, and US Quant have replaced the Top Pick rating).
Prior BMO Capital Markets Rating System
(April 2013 - October 2016)
http://researchglobal.bmocapitalmarkets.com/documents/2013/rating_key_2013_to_2016.pdf
(January 2010 - April 2013)
http://researchglobal.bmocapitalmarkets.com/documents/2013/prior_rating_system.pdf

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Atlassian Corp. Plc Class A | Page 8 April 19, 2018


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Atlassian Corp. Plc Class A | Page 9 April 19, 2018

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