Professional Documents
Culture Documents
a
Department of Systems Engineering and Engineering Management, City University of Hong Kong, Kowloon Tong, Hong Kong
b
School of Management, Universiti Sains Malaysia, 11800 Penang, Malaysia
c
School of Mathematical Sciences, Universiti Sains Malaysia, 11800 Penang, Malaysia
d
Department of Community Health Sciences, University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada
Keywords: Control charting techniques for monitoring the magnitude and frequency of an event are crucial in manu-
Exponential distribution facturing and industrial activities. Several articles on monitoring the two quantities separately are available in
Gamma distribution the literature, however, a simultaneous monitoring of the magnitude and frequency of an event may be more
Max EWMA chart time efficient. In this paper, we propose the maximum exponentially weighted moving average (Max-EWMA)
Single variable
control chart to simultaneously monitor the magnitude and frequency of an event. The Max-EWMA chart’s
Quality control
Time-between-events
statistic is based on the maximum of the absolute values of two EWMA statistics - one for controlling the
magnitude and the other for the frequency of an event. In addition, the magnitude is assumed to follow a gamma
distribution while the frequency is assumed to follow an exponential distribution. The objective of the proposed
scheme is to enhance the speed for detecting shifts in the magnitude and/or frequency of an event. Overall,
performance study indicates that the Max-EWMA chart outperforms its existing counterparts with the same
objective of detecting small shifts in process parameters. It also competes strongly in detecting large shifts.
Finally, we illustrate the application of the proposed chart with examples.
⁎
Corresponding author.
E-mail addresses: rasanusi2-c@my.cityu.edu.hk (R.A. Sanusi), tehsyin@usm.my (S.Y. Teh), mkbc@usm.my (M.B.C. Khoo).
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cie.2020.106378
Received 4 December 2017; Received in revised form 12 February 2020; Accepted 20 February 2020
Available online 21 February 2020
0360-8352/ © 2020 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
R.A. Sanusi, et al. Computers & Industrial Engineering 142 (2020) 106378
the occurrence of critical quality problems or destructive accidents. Shewhart schemes (Liu et al., 2009; Qu et al., 2014; Sanusi &
Several studies have shown that the magnitude of an event and TBE can Mukherjee, 2019; Wu et al., 2009b) and CUSUM schemes (see Wu et al.,
be fitted to an exponential distribution and gamma distribution, re- 2010; Qu et al., 2013) based on single statistic to jointly monitor
spectively. For example, in wireless communication engineering, the magnitude of an event and TBE. To the best of the authors’ knowledge,
fading signal to noise ratio is exponentially distributed, while gamma no work has been conducted on single statistic based parametric EWMA
distribution can be used to model the magnitude of multi-path fading of scheme to monitor the magnitude of an event and TBE simultaneously.
signal power. In civil hydrological engineering, the time intervals be- This has motivated the authors of this present paper to propose a single
tween rainfall have an exponential distribution and the number of maximum EWMA (Max-EWMA) scheme, for simultaneously monitoring
rainfall-runoff of a hydrometric station is modelled by a gamma dis- the magnitude of each occurrence of an event and the time interval
tribution. In electronic engineering, the time between failures of between two consecutive occurrences of the events. The statistic for the
semiconductor devices is fitted by an exponential distribution and the Max-EWMA chart is based on the maximum of the absolute values of
number of failures per monitoring interval is modelled by a gamma two EWMA statistics, each for controlling the magnitude and the fre-
distribution. Readers interested in simultaneous monitoring of magni- quency of an event. The chart is more effective than the T&X and the
tude of an event and TBE may refer to Ali and Pievatolo (2018), Huang, rate charts for detecting small shifts. It is also very competitive in de-
Yang, and Mukherjee (2018), and the references therein. tecting large shifts.
Some of the earlier works on simultaneous monitoring of magnitude The remaining of this paper is organised as follows: Section 2 in-
and TBE are based on two charting statistics. A classic example is the troduces the proposed Max-EWMA chart for monitoring event fre-
combined T&X control scheme of Wu et al. (2009a) where T chart (for quency and time. In Section 3, the Max-EWMA charting procedures are
TBE) and X chart (for magnitude of events) are placed side by side. The outlined and examples of applications are provided. We conduct a si-
T variable follows an exponential distribution while the X variable mulation study in Section 4 to compare the performance of the Max-
follows a gamma distribution. This practice is less efficient compared to EWMA chart against the individual T, individual X, T&X and rate
single-statistic based charts for monitoring both magnitude and TBE, charts. Conclusions are drawn in the last section.
except in a few cases of detecting large shifts in process parameters. As
a result, some single plotting charting schemes have been developed to
enhance the efficiency of the basic T&X control scheme. 2. The proposed Max-EWMA chart for monitoring event frequency
Wu, Jiao, and He (2009b) employed a single rate chart based on and magnitude
event ratio between sample values of magnitude and time. Their results
indicate that the chart has a high detection power and it is more sen- Xie (1999) and Chen, Cheng, and Xie (2001) proposed the single
sitive to both magnitude and time shifts than the combined T&X control Max-EWMA control chart. The Max-EWMA statistic is made up of the
scheme. Liu, He, Shu, and Wu (2009) introduced a synthesised scheme maximum absolute values of two independent EWMA statistics to
of single rate chart for monitoring attribute events, where the X attri- jointly monitor process mean and variance. This paper presents the
bute variable follows a Poisson distribution. The scheme significantly Max-EWMA chart for the simultaneous monitoring of positive events by
outperforms the combined T&X control scheme for detecting an OOC plotting the maximum absolute values of the magnitude of an event (X)
condition of attribute events. Furthermore, Qu, Wu, Khoo, and Shu and the time interval (or the frequency) of the event (T). When an OOC
(2014) proposed a single Shewhart synthetic G chart. It has a higher signal is issued, the chart can identify the source (X or T). We consider
detection effectiveness as compared to the combined T&X control that the magnitude of an event follows a gamma distribution,
scheme and the rate chart. The detection power of the chart can be X ~Gamma (a, b) (Liu et al., 2009; Wu et al., 2009b), and the time
adapted accurately to detect small and large shifts for T and/or X due to between two successive events follows an exponential distribution, T
its ability to adjust three parameters to obtain an optimal design. All ~Exponential ( E ) (Qu et al., 2014; Sanusi & Mukherjee, 2019). The
these schemes are Shewhart based charts and they pay no attention to parameters a , b, and E are positive values representing the shape, the
historical information about a process when new points are plotted scale, and the rate parameters, respectively. Note that both distribu-
(Adegoke, Riaz, Sanusi, Smith, & Pawley, 2017; Reynolds & Stoumbos, tions are skewed.
2005; Sanusi, Abujiya, Riaz, & Abbas, 2017; Sanusi, Riaz, Adegoke, & Though most existing works assumed this pair of distributions, the
Xie, 2017). Consequently, they are ineffective in detecting small shifts assumption should not be followed blindly. The assumption on T is less
in process parameters. Therefore, there is a need to adopt memory type problematic, since it is equivalent to assuming a homogeneous Poisson
control charts, such as the cumulative sum (CUSUM) chart and the process. However, there are numerous other distributions that could
exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) chart. correctly fit X since it is a non-negative continuous skewed variable.
Wu, Liu, He, and Khoo (2010) developed a TC-CUSUM chart based Mostly, the gamma distribution usually gives a perfect fit for real life
on a two-dimensional Markov model for monitoring negative events. datasets on X. For instance, the real dataset in the example section
The chart incorporates past information into each individually plotted (Section 3.2.1) is best fitted to a gamma distribution. This provides
sample point to increase the chart’s sensitivity for detecting small shifts motivation to consider gamma distribution for X in this research. Fur-
in a process. Overall, it is more effective than the Shewhart-type charts. thermore, different distributions have been considered for X in the lit-
Also, Liu, He, Shamsuzzaman, and Wu (2010) presented a T&C scheme. erature. For example, Qu et al. (2014) considered the normal dis-
It is a combination of T chart for event frequency and another chart tribution. However, random variable X is fitted to a gamma distribution
based on truncated Poisson for discrete event magnitude. Qu, Wu, better than to a normal distribution, as X can never be smaller than zero
Khoo, and Castagliola (2013) established a single synthetic GCUSUM and its distribution is likely to be skewed. Irrespective of this, in certain
chart based on a combined synthetic G statistic, where the X continuous applications, the random variable X may not fit a gamma distribution
variable is assumed to follow a normal distribution. adequately. Thus, adequate statistical analysis should be carried out to
The EWMA chart is more sensitive than Shewhart and CUSUM determine which continuous distribution best fits the data.
charts in reflecting crucial information on recent process. It is also in- In this research, the magnitude and time between two successive
sensitive to non-normality of process data especially for small values of events in a monitoring process are assumed to be independent. It is also
smoothing parameter. Contrarily, Shewhart and CUSUM schemes are assumed that the process starts at t = 0, while the in-control (IC)
sensitive to non-normality in the sense that their actual in-control parameters of X and T are represented by (a0 , b0) and E0 , respectively.
average run length (ARL0) would be greatly less than the expected The shifts in the parameters a and E are given by
value based on the assumption of a normal distribution (Hawkins &
a= a a 0 , and (1a)
Olwell, 1998; Montgomery, 2013). Researchers have proposed
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R.A. Sanusi, et al. Computers & Industrial Engineering 142 (2020) 106378
E = E E0 , (1b) deemed as IC and the monitoring proceeds to the next test ob-
servation in Step 3. Otherwise, the process is regarded as OOC and
where a and E are the change in terms of magnitude and time, re-
we proceed to the next step.
spectively. Shift is only applied to the shape parameter of X to show
6. Take the necessary action to investigate whether the process is ac-
changes in the magnitude of an event, though shift can also be applied
tually in an OOC state and subsequently eliminate the root cause(s)
to the scale parameter. The process is IC when both E and a equal to
of the OOC signal. Then, resume process monitoring and proceed to
one. In the construction of the Max-EWMA chart, the following two
Step 3.
independent statistics are defined:
7. Follow-up approach: Once an OOC state is established, it is im-
Ui =
Xi ab
and portant to determine which of the variables (X and/or T) is re-
ab2 (2) sponsible for the OOC signal. Commence by labelling the plotted
points according to the symbols presented in Table 2. Check both |Ui|
Vi = E Ti 1 (3)
and |Vi| against UCL . If |Ui| alone is greater than UCL , label “X” to
Two EWMA statistics, based on Ui and Vi are given by indicate a shift in the magnitude of the event. If |Vi| alone is greater
than UCL , label “T” to indicate a shift in the TBE. If both |Ui| and |Vi|
Yi = (1 ) Yi 1 + Ui, 0< 1, i = 1, 2, …,
are greater than UCL , label “XT” to indicate that both the magnitude
Zi = (1 ) Zi 1 + Vi , 0< 1, i = 1, 2, …, (5) and TBE have shifted simultaneously (Table 2).
where Y0 = E (Ui ) = 0 and Z0 = E (Vi ) = 0 are the starting values for the
3.1. Out-of-Control (OOC) properties of the proposed chart
EWMA statistics and (0, 1] is a smoothing constant. Generally, a
large value of allows quick detection of large shifts by the EWMA
One of the most common measures for analysing the performance of
chart, while a small value is suitable for detecting small shifts (Lucas &
a control chart is the average run length (ARL) criterion. ARL is the
Saccucci, 1990). In practice, the interval 0.05 ≤ ≤ 0.25 is usually
average number of samples to be plotted on a chart until the first OOC
considered for a quick detection of small to moderate shifts in a process.
signal is indicated. Ideally, the ARL0 should be a big value to minimise
A new monitoring statistic for a single Max-EWMA control chart
the false alarm rate. When the process is OOC due to some assignable
that combines Yi and Zi is defined as
causes of variation, the OOC ARL (ARL1) is expected to be smaller than
Mi = max{|Yi |, |Zi|} (6) the ARL0. In fact, a chart with a lower ARL1 than its competing chart is
If the magnitude and/or the time shift from their IC values, the said to have a better performance. Furthermore, due to the geometric
statistic Mi will be larger than when both the magnitude and time stay nature of the run length distribution, it is important to study the stan-
close to their respective target values. Since Mi is a non-negative real dard deviation (SDRL) and percentiles (Pk, k = 10, 25, 50, 75, 90) of
number, the Max-EWMA chart only has an upper control limit (UCL), the run length. Hence, the ARL, the standard deviation of the run length
which is given by (SDRL) and the kth percentiles (Pk, k = 10, 25, 50, 75, 90) of the run
length distribution are examined in Table 3. Since the aim of this work
UCL = E (M ) + L Var (M ) , (7) is to effectively monitor small to moderate downward shifts in X and
upward shifts in T simultaneously, shift {1, 0.85, 0.80, 0.70, 0.50} is
where E(M) and Var(M) are the mean and variance of M, respectively,
introduced to the shape parameter of X and rate parameter of T. It
when the process is IC. If the values of E(M) and Var(M) are unknown,
should be noted that a decrease in the rate parameter of T implies an
they may be replaced by the sample mean and sample variance of M
increase in T due to the inverse relationship that exists between them.
which are usually estimated from historical data when the process is IC.
The shifts are in the form of percentage. The value of = 1 means that
Hence, the statistic can detect downward shifts in the parameters of X
there is no shift in the process parameters, while = 0.85 implies that
and/or T. Furthermore, the constant L is a multiplier that controls the
there is a 15% decrease in the parameter. To analyse the result of the
width of the control chart’s limit.
proposed scheme, the following general conditions are considered,
unless stated otherwise:
3. Max-EWMA charting procedures
a0 = 7.5, b0 = 1, E = 0.01, {0.05, 0.10}
The procedure to construct a single Max-EWMA control chart for
The ARL0 is set to be approximately 370 and the corresponding
monitoring the event frequency and magnitude is summarised as fol-
SDRL0 is also close to 370. The results are computed through simula-
lows:
tion-based algorithm functions written in R statistical software, version
3.6.1 (R Core Team, 2019). We provide the codes in the supplementary
1. Specify a desired ARL 0 value and initialise Y0 = Z0 = 0 . Also, specify
materials for interested readers.
the value of the smoothing constant and the corresponding con-
In Table 3, for the case of = 0.05, it is observed that the ARL
stant multiplier L . The values of L for different combinations of E ,
reduces by 87.7% (97.7%) when there is 15% (50%) pure shift in the
a, b, , and ARL 0 are presented in Table 1. We achieve this by
shape parameter of X, and reduces by 71.6% (96.4%) when there is
searching for the value of L that yields the nominal ARL 0 of 370 in
15% (50%) pure shift in the rate parameter of T. Also, when there are
an algorithm function written in the R statistical software, version
simultaneous shifts of ( a, E ) = (0.85, 0.85) and (0.50, 0.70), ARL0
3.6.1 (R Core Team, 2019). Note that ARL 0 = 370 corresponds to
reduces by 89.5% and 97.8%, respectively. A similar pattern is ob-
the classical ± 3 limits of a control chart.
served for the SDRL and for the case of = 0.10. Hence, it can be
2. Compute the UCL of the Max-EWMA chart using Equation (7). If the
concluded that the ARL and SDRL degenerate at an increasing rate as
values of E (M ) and Var (M ) are unknown, they can be replaced with
the shifts increase. Overall, the proposed chart is more sensitive to si-
the sample mean and sample variance of M , respectively, which are
multaneous shifts in both X and T than a pure shift in either of the
usually estimated from historical data when the process is IC.
variables. The curve for E = 1 in Fig. 1(a) illustrates that a pure shift
3. Obtain the ith test observation (Xi , Ti ), i = 1, 2, …, for the event,
in X has the highest value of ARL compared to other curves with si-
where Xi is the resultant magnitude of the event at the ith observa-
multaneous shifts in X and T. Meanwhile, the curve of a = 1 in
tion, while Ti is the time interval between the occurrences of the ith
Fig. 1(b) shows that the chart with a pure shift in the distribution of T
and the (i-1)th observations.
performs in a similar manner, in terms of the ARL criterion.
4. Compute Ui, Vi, Yi, Zi, and Mi for the ith test observation.
The percentiles in Table 3 show that the run length distribution is
5. Plot Mi against i on the control chart. If Mi UCL , the process is
rightly skewed, in which the ARL is always greater than the median
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R.A. Sanusi, et al. Computers & Industrial Engineering 142 (2020) 106378
Table 1
Max-EWMA chart’s multiplier and the in-control run length properties when X ~Gamma (a, b) , T ~Exp ( E ) , ARL0 = 370 and = {0.05, 0.10}.
E a, b L = 0.05 L = 0.10
ARL0 (SDRL0) ARL0 (SDRL0)
Pk, k = 10, 25, 50, 75, 90 Pk, k = 10, 25, 50, 75, 90
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R.A. Sanusi, et al. Computers & Industrial Engineering 142 (2020) 106378
Table 3
Max-EWMA chart when X ~Gamma (7.5, 1) , T ~Exp (0.01) , ARL0 = 370 and = {0.05, 0.10}, for different levels of shifts in a and/or E.
a E ARL SDRL P10 P25 P50 P75 P90 ARL SDRL P10 P25 P50 P75 P90
1.00 1.00 368.0 356.0 48 113 259 508 836 367.8 363.3 43 109 254 509 845
0.85 1.00 45.2 28.3 18 25 38 57 82 79.4 66.5 20 33 60 106 165
0.80 1.00 28.5 14.4 14 18 25 35 47 40.0 28.1 14 20 32 51 76
0.70 1.00 15.9 5.6 10 12 15 19 23 17.4 8.3 9 12 15 21 28
0.50 1.00 8.4 1.8 6 7 8 9 11 7.8 2.1 6 6 7 9 10
1.00 0.85 104.5 93.2 20 39 76 140 225 108.7 103.3 17 35 78 148 242
0.85 0.85 38.7 23.7 16 22 33 49 69 56.0 45.6 14 24 43 74 116
0.80 0.85 26.5 13.3 13 17 24 33 44 34.5 24.0 12 18 28 44 66
0.70 0.85 15.5 5.6 10 12 15 18 23 16.6 8.0 9 11 15 20 27
0.50 0.85 8.4 1.8 6 7 8 9 11 7.7 2.1 5 6 7 9 10
1.00 0.80 70.3 59.9 15 28 53 94 148 74.0 68.4 13 25 53 100 165
0.85 0.80 35.0 21.3 14 20 30 44 63 46.6 37.6 12 21 36 61 95
0.80 0.80 25.3 12.8 12 16 23 31 42 31.4 21.7 11 16 26 40 60
0.70 0.80 15.3 5.6 9 11 14 18 23 16.1 7.8 8 11 14 20 26
0.50 0.80 8.3 1.9 6 7 8 9 11 7.7 2.1 5 6 7 9 10
1.00 0.70 36.0 27.3 10 17 29 47 72 36.7 31.1 8 15 28 49 77
0.85 0.70 26.4 15.7 10 15 23 34 47 30.5 23.4 8 14 24 40 61
0.80 0.70 21.3 10.9 10 14 19 27 35 24.0 16.4 8 13 20 31 46
0.70 0.70 14.3 5.4 8 11 14 17 21 14.6 7.2 7 10 13 18 24
0.50 0.70 8.2 1.9 6 7 8 9 11 7.5 2.2 5 6 7 9 10
1.00 0.50 13.1 8.4 4 7 11 17 24 12.3 9.0 3 6 10 16 24
0.85 0.50 12.8 7.6 5 7 11 17 23 12.1 8.5 4 6 10 16 23
0.80 0.50 12.1 6.7 5 7 11 16 21 11.5 7.6 3 6 10 15 22
0.70 0.50 10.5 4.8 5 7 10 13 17 9.8 5.4 3 6 9 13 17
0.50 0.50 7.4 2.2 5 6 7 9 10 6.6 2.4 3 5 7 8 9
= 0.05, it is observed that the ARL performance of the chart improves 3.2. Examples of application
as the level of the X skewness reduces. That is, for a specific shift in T
( E ), different levels of shifts in X are detected early for G(7.5,1), fol- 3.2.1. Real dataset: monitoring the sales of integrated circuit chips
lowed by G(4,1), G(1,2), and G(2,2), where G (a, b) denotes a gamma A real dataset from an electronic company is used to show the im-
distribution with a shape parameter of a and a scale parameter of b . In plementation of the proposed scheme. The company is interested in
addition, G(7.5,1) and G(4,1) compete closely regardless of the shifts in monitoring the sales of its integrated circuit chips to customers and the
the parameters. When the size of shift in X increases, i.e. from a = 0.85 primary objective is to signal any decline in product sales. This is an
to a = 0.50, the ARL performance for G(1,2) and G(2,2) are compa- example of a positive event, where the magnitude of an event (X) re-
tible. A similar trend is observed in the case of = 0.10 (Fig. 3). presents the sales of the integrated circuit chip (number of lots), while
The performance of the proposed scheme is also investigated for time between the events (T) is simply the time interval between two
different parameter combinations of X since the skewness level of successive orders (hours). It is of interest to detect a decrease in the
gamma distribution is dependent on the value of its parameters (Fig. 4). amount of the products ordered, and/or an increase in the time between
Fig. 4 illustrates that G(1,2) is highly skewed and the level of skewness successive orders. More explanations on the dataset can be found in Wu
reduces towards symmetry for the G(2,2), G(4,1), and G(7.5, 1) para- et al. (2009b). The dataset consists of 50 IC observations. The variable X
meters. is fitted to a gamma distribution with parameters a0 = 2.8277 and
b0 = 0.8063, while T is fitted to an exponential distribution with rate
parameter 0.0571. Based on these values, 50 additional OOC
Fig. 1. ARL curves showing the performance of the Max-EWMA chart in detecting (a) pure shifts in T and (b) pure shifts in X against simultaneous shifts in X and T
when X ~Gamma (7.5, 1) , T ~Exp (0.01) , and = 0.10.
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R.A. Sanusi, et al. Computers & Industrial Engineering 142 (2020) 106378
Fig. 2. ARL curves for the Max-EWMA ( =0.05) chart with different G (a, b) distributions for simultaneous shifts in a and/or E.
observations are simulated by introducing shifts of a = 0.50 and OOC signal at the 60th order sample. Henceforth, some measures such
E = 0.50 to the shape parameter of X and the rate parameter of T, as advertisements can be immediately effected to improve the sales of
respectively. The proposed scheme is designed to detect these shifts. the integrated circuit chip. Additionally, the management team can
The charting parameters of the proposed Max-EWMA scheme are given make sound and timely decisions to boost the sales of integrated circuit
as = 0.10 , L = 1.798, UCL = 1.530 , and ARL 0 = 100 . chips in order to sustain the organisation’s sales volume. The decision
From Fig. 5, it is shown that the Max-EWMA chart detects the first may be in the form of leveraging social media marketing channels,
Fig. 3. ARL curve for the Max-EWMA ( = 0.10) chart with different G (a, b) distributions for simultaneous shifts in a and/or E.
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R.A. Sanusi, et al. Computers & Industrial Engineering 142 (2020) 106378
a
3.2.2. Simulated dataset
E
Simulated data are used to show the application of the proposed
0.05 0.10 0.30 0.50 0.70 0.90 Max-EWMA scheme in a real-life scenario. Let X be the sales of a pro-
1.00 1.00 368.2 369.6 372.7 369.1 372.8 369.4
duct of an automobile company, while T is simply the time interval
0.85 1.00 105.5 83.9 376.0 375.1 377.4 369.7 between two successive demands from customers. Here, the company
0.80 1.00 86.8 63.2 373.9 371.9 374.6 368.4 may be interested in detecting any slight drop in the sales of its product
0.70 1.00 66.7 43.4 372.2 365.5 371.8 369.3 and/or an increase in the time between two successive demands for the
0.50 1.00 48.7 28.4 372.1 370.3 373.5 370.6
product. These changes would imply a decrease in the profit of the
1.00 0.85 369.6 300.1 120.3 134.9 146.7 148.8
0.85 0.85 105.6 81.5 120.2 135.5 145.9 147.3 company, hence, it is important to detect the changes as soon as pos-
0.80 0.85 86.6 62.1 118.7 134.9 146.0 148.6 sible. The variable X is assumed to follow a gamma distribution with IC
0.70 0.85 66.7 42.6 120.5 136.5 146.3 148.8 parameters a0 = 4 and b0 = 1. Furthermore, T is assumed to follow an
0.50 0.85 48.7 28.3 119.5 133.7 145.2 148.1 exponential distribution with IC parameter E0 = 0.01. A set of 50 data
1.00 0.80 365.4 245.9 83.7 97.6 107.2 109.3
0.85 0.80 105.1 77.7 83.7 96.4 105.8 109.2
are simulated using these parameters. In order to simulate a scenario
0.80 0.80 86.5 60.6 83.3 96.3 106.0 110.8 where there is a 15% decrease in the demand for the product and a 15%
0.70 0.80 66.6 42.1 83.8 97.6 107.9 110.4 increase in the time between successive demands, another 50 OOC data
0.50 0.80 48.7 28.1 84.1 96.5 106.1 109.9 are generated by introducing a = 0.85 to the shape parameter of X and
1.00 0.70 298.3 124.6 42.9 50.7 57.2 60.2
E = 0.85 to the rate parameter of T. In total, there are 100 simulated
0.85 0.70 102.3 64.6 41.9 51.0 57.8 61.4
0.80 0.70 85.1 53.3 42.3 51.1 57.4 60.5 data, split evenly between IC and OOC. The proposed scheme is con-
0.70 0.70 65.9 39.3 42.2 50.8 57.1 60.8 structed to simultaneously detect a drop in the sales and an increase in
0.50 0.70 48.5 27.2 43.0 51.2 57.3 60.7 the time between successive demands for the product. The smoothing
1.00 0.50 56.0 26.5 12.8 15.1 17.1 18.6 parameter of the Max-EWMA chart is assumed to be = 0.05. In ad-
0.85 0.50 51.7 25.2 12.8 15.1 17.0 18.4
dition, the UCL is fixed as 0.57 to ensure that there is a false alarm in
0.80 0.50 50.0 24.5 12.8 15.0 16.9 18.6
0.70 0.50 45.9 22.9 12.9 14.9 17.2 18.3 every 100 observations, i.e. the ARL0 is fixed as 100. It is observed that
0.50 0.50 39.2 19.7 12.9 15.0 17.1 18.5 the proposed scheme detects an OOC situation at the 57th observation
(Fig. 6). The rate chart signals an OOC situation at the 67th observation
(Table A.I in the Appendix A) which is slower than the Max-EWMA
chart. Hence, the proposed scheme can detect the simultaneous changes
as soon as possible. The company can then adjust its policies to mini-
mise the chance of a similar occurrence in the future.
4. Comparative studies
Fig. 6. The Max-EWMA chart ( = 0.05 , L = 2.787) for the simulated sales and
Fig. 5. Max-EWMA chart for monitoring the sales of integrated circuit chips. demand data.
7
R.A. Sanusi, et al. Computers & Industrial Engineering 142 (2020) 106378
Table 5
ARL values of various control charts for decreasing shifts.
a
E 0.48 0.59 0.69 0.79 0.90 1.00
a 0 = 4, b0 = 1, E = 0.01, 0.48 a 1, 0.33 E 1, where is the false alarm rate (or size of Type-I error) given by
= 1 ARL 0 . Since the proposed chart is one-sided (upper-sided in this
ARL 0 = 100
case), the LCL of the T chart is ineffective. Hence, the T chart issues an
The E value of 0.01 implies that there is one occurrence of an event OOC signal when the plotting statistic lies above the UCL. It is observed
in every 100 units of time. The scale parameter of the gamma dis- from Table 5 that for a fixed E value, the ARL of the T chart remains
tribution (b) is fixed, while shifts are applied to a and . In addition, ω unchanged for different values of a . For example, when E = 0.73, the
= 0.10 is used for the proposed chart. Following Wu et al. (2009b), the ARL value equals to 37.284 regardless of the shift in magnitude
largest shifts applied to a and E are a = 0.48 and E = 0.33, re- (Table 5) since the T chart is invariant to changes in the magnitude of
spectively, so as to leverage the magnitude of the X shifts and the T an event. For all the domain of shifts in T, the ARL1 of the proposed
shifts, i.e. to equate the power of detecting downward shifts in X and chart is lower than that of the individual T chart. Hence, the proposed
upward shifts in T. The ARL 0 is set as 100 to ensure a false alarm in chart outperforms the T chart. This shows that the proposed chart is
every 100 sampling observations. Next, one-to-one comparisons of the suitable for effectively detecting small to moderate pure shifts in T.
Max-EWMA chart and each of its counterparts are presented. The re-
sults of the T, X, T&X, and rate charts reported in Table 5 are adopted 4.2. Max-EWMA vs X chart
from Wu et al. (2009b).
The individual X chart is designed to monitor the magnitude of an
4.1. Max-EWMA vs T chart event. It is similar to the usual X chart for monitoring the location
parameter of a process. The control limits are given as:
The individual T chart is designed to detect shifts in the time be- LCL = F X 1 ( ) and (9a)
tween the occurrences of an event. It is a Shewhart-type chart and is
efficient for detecting large shifts. Its plotting statistic is the time in- UCL = F X (11
), (9b)
terval of an event, while its corresponding lower control limit (LCL) and
UCL are given as: where F X ( · ) is the inverse cumulative distribution function of X,
1
8
R.A. Sanusi, et al. Computers & Industrial Engineering 142 (2020) 106378
there are pure shifts in X and in this case, the individual X chart per- The results in Table 5 indicate that the proposed Max-EWMA chart
forms better than the proposed Max-EWMA chart. This is evident from performs better than the rate chart in detecting pure moderate shifts in
the lower ARL1 values of the X chart than the Max-EWMA chart X ( E = 1.00 and 0.69 a 0.79) . For detecting joint small to mod-
(Table 5), i.e. when E = 1.00 and a = {0.48, 0.59, 0.69, 0.79, 0.90}, erate shifts in T (0.60 E 0.87) and X (0.79 a 0.90) , the Max-
the corresponding ARL values for X chart and Max-EWMA chart are EWMA chart gives a better performance. In addition, the Max-EWMA
{4.647, 7.822, 13.858, 25.713, 49.747}, and {7.893, 10.822, 16.383, chart outperforms the rate chart in detecting joint large shifts in T
29.972, 74.991}, respectively. From Table 5, the X chart is insensitive (0.47 E 0.33) and any size of shifts in X.
to changes in T, i.e. when a = 1.00 and E = {0.87, 0.73, 0.60, 0.47
and 0.33}, the corresponding ARL values are {115.388, 136.367, 5. Conclusion
166.671, 214.291, 300.008}. However, unlike the individual T chart,
the ARL1 of the X chart varies when there are shifts in T for a particular The monitoring of the magnitude of an event and the frequency of
a . For instance, when a = 0.48 and E = {0.87, 0.73, 0.60, 0.47, occurrence of the event is inevitable in industrial, manufacturing, or
0.33}, the corresponding ARL values are {5.361, 6.336, 7.744, 9.957, business sector. This can be achieved with the aid of advanced SPC
13.94}. This is because the sampling interval of the X chart is simply the
charts. The time between event (T) and the magnitude of the event (X)
time interval of the occurrences of the events (Qu et al., 2014). can be monitored with separate charts or together with a single chart.
The event can be a positive or a negative event, however, less attention
4.3. Max-EWMA vs T&X chart has been given to the monitoring of positive events. Consequently, a
max-EWMA type chart is suggested for the simultaneous monitoring of
The T&X chart was proposed by Wu et al. (2009a) for a simulta- X and T. The variable X is assumed to follow a gamma distribution
neous monitoring of TBE and magnitude of an event. It combines the
while T follows an exponential distribution. The chart focuses on the
individual T chart and the individual X chart and has an overall better monitoring of positive events and it is efficient for detecting downward
performance than the individual charts, especially for detecting
shifts in X and/or upward shifts in T. The ARL criterion is used to
downward shifts. For monitoring a positive event, the T chart compo- evaluate the performance of the proposed scheme. The result shows
nent has an UCL, while the X chart component has a LCL. The process is
that the Max-EWMA scheme performs best for detecting small to
said to be OOC when either or both components gives an OOC signal. moderate shifts. However, its sensitivity to large shifts can be increased
The overall size of a Type-I error ( ) of the T&X chart is set such that
by increasing the smoothing parameter of the Max-EWMA statistic.
X = and (10a) Furthermore, the proposed scheme is compared with some existing
charts of the same purpose. It outperforms them in detecting small to
(1 )
= , moderate shifts and competes strongly in detecting large shifts. Finally,
T
1 (10b)
the application of the Max-EWMA chart in a real-life scenario is illu-
where X and T are the sizes of Type-I errors of the X chart and T chart, strated with a simulated data set. The prospect of this work is to extend
respectively, and 0 1 is an allocating factor for decomposing this idea to the multivariate case; to consider the situation where the
into X and T . More details on the chart can be found in Wu et al. variables are dependent; and to study the effect of erroneous distribu-
(2009a) and Qu et al. (2013). tions assumptions.
By referring to Table 5, for pure shifts in magnitude, the proposed
Max-EWMA chart provides a better performance only for detecting
CRediT authorship contribution statement
moderate shifts, i.e. 0.69 a 0.79. Furthermore, the proposed chart
is more effective in detecting joint small shifts in T ( E = 0.87) and
Ridwan A. Sanusi: Software, Formal analysis, Data curation,
small to moderate shifts in X (0.69 a 1) , while the T&X chart per-
Visualization, Writing - original draft. Sin Yin Teh: Conceptualization,
forms better for detecting joint small shifts in T and large shifts in X
Methodology, Writing - original draft. Michael B.C. Khoo: Validation,
(0.48 a 0.59) . The proposed chart outperforms the T&X chart in
Writing - review & editing.
detecting joint moderate to large shifts in T (0.33 E 0.73) and any
shift size in X.
Acknowledgements
4.4. Max-EWMA vs rate chart
The work described in this paper was supported by a grant from
The rate chart makes use of a single statistic R = X T , unlike the T& University Grants Committee of Hong Kong (CityU 11213116) and
X chart, to monitor X and T simultaneously. For monitoring a positive National Natural Science Foundation of China under a key Project (No.
event, the rate chart gives an OOC signal when there is an upward shift 71532008). This study was conducted while the corresponding author
in R, that is, when there is an increase in X and/or a decrease in T. More was a Research Fellow at the City University of Hong Kong and the
details of the chart can be found in Wu et al. (2009b). third author was on sabbatical leave.
Appendix A
9
R.A. Sanusi, et al. Computers & Industrial Engineering 142 (2020) 106378
Table A1
The rate statistic for the simulated sales and demand data, where LCL = 0.0046.
i X T Rate statistic i X T Rate statistic
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