Project: AFL Dream Team Builder Project

Scenario:

I am going to create an AFL Dream Team league and we are going to have a class
competition to see who comes out top at the end of the season.

Your task is to create the ultimate AFL dream team by creating a prediction
program to select your team and make suggestions on which players to keep and
which players to trade. You have access to historical match data, player statistics,
weather forecasts, and the budget available to you to select and buy players. The
goal is to build a competitive team that performs well in the season ahead and
ultimately comes out top in the class league.

Project Requirements:

1. Data Collection and Database Creation:

o Historical Match Data: Gather historical AFL match data, including
team performance, player stats, and match outcomes. Create a
database to store this information.
o Player Data: Collect player profiles, including their positions, recent
form, injury status, and historical performance.
o Weather Data: Retrieve weather forecasts for the upcoming matches
(e.g., temperature, wind conditions, rain predictions).
o Team Schedule: Tough fixtures in a row or playing games back to
back (fatigue).
o
o Other things to consider: Home/ Away games, travelling times…

2. Team Building Algorithm:

o Develop an algorithm that considers various factors to select players
for the dream team:
 Past player performance (goals, assists, tackles, etc.) to make
selections and recent performance to suggest trades
 Player positions (for team balance)
 Budget constraints (each player has a cost) is it better to spend
more money on a Defender and less on a Midfielder?
 Injury status (avoid injured players). Look at injury history and
predict how many games a player will play. Maybe they score
lots of points but are only fit 50% of the time.
  Weather conditions (some players perform better in specific
weather). Maybe it rains all the time in Brisbane so Perth
players wont perform to their full potential when it rains?
o The algorithm should optimize team performance while staying
within the budget.

3. Prediction Engine:
o Create a prediction engine that analyses historical data, player form,
and weather conditions to predict match outcomes.
o Consider factors such as home-ground advantage, recent team
performance, and head-to-head records.
o Predict the winner and margin for each upcoming match.
o Use this information to analyse which players to play each week and
advise if they need to be traded.

4. User Interface (Optional):

o Display the selected team, predicted match outcomes, and any
relevant insights including having a predicted score for each player

5. Testing and Validation:

o Test the dream team against actual match results from previous
seasons. This can be used to indicate how many points your team
would have scored in previous years.
o Validate the prediction engine’s accuracy by comparing its
predictions with real outcomes.

6. Documentation and Presentation:

o Document the project, including the data sources, algorithms, and
design decisions.
o Prepare a presentation to explain your dream team selections,
prediction methods, and overall project approach.

Learning Objectives:

 Data collection and management

 Algorithm design and optimization
 Statistical analysis and prediction
 Budget constraints and decision-making
 Presentation skills
Extensions (Advanced Challenges):

 Incorporate machine learning techniques (e.g., regression, classification) for

better predictions.

Relevant Studies

Below are some research papers and websites which might come in useful in
making your predictions. This is not exhaustive so do some of your own research
too!
https://bmcsportsscimedrehabil.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s13102-021-00362-5
https://sportsmedicine-open.springeropen.com/articles/10.1186/s40798-022-00518-8
https://guides.slv.vic.gov.au/australianfootball/generalhistory
https://afltables.com/afl/seas/2023.html
https://predictor.squiggle.com.au/