UNSW Mining Engineering

INTRODUCTORY GEOSTATISTICS Point Estimation Techniques; Ordinary Kriging (The following notes are largely based on An Introduction to Applied Geostatistics, 1989, by Edward H. Isaaks and R. Mohan Srivastava and the illustrations are copied from that textbook.)

Resources are generally estimated on the basis of three dimensionally oriented sample data. The sample data are used to interpolate values at regularly distributed points lacking sample data. The regularly distributed, estimated values are then used to estimate average values for blocks and sub-blocks occupying the resource volume. For tabular ore bodies, coal seams and the like, the data distribution may be effectively two dimensional. The polygonal, triangulation, local sample mean and inverse distance methods of estimating point values will be illustrated by a two dimensional case where a single point estimate is made, based on sample values from 7 points around that point. The techniques involved and the strengths and weaknesses of these four methods are illustrated by the following tables and figures, 1 to 5. Ordinary kriging is also used to estimate the same point value. Tables and figures, 6 to 9, illustrate the technique and demonstrate that kriging is much more computationally intensive than the non-geostatistical methods. The ordinary kriging estimate is as inaccurate as the others because the available sample data is inadequate to permit accurate estimation by any method. All of the techniques are designed to produce unbiased estimates by ensuring that the weights applied to each of the known samples sum to 1. Ordinary kriging is designed to do more, to be the "best, linear, unbiased estimator". Again, the weights sum to 1 but, in addition, they are calculated to minimise the variance of the errors. Since the true values are unknown, the errors can only be determined against the random function model selected as best representing the real distribution of sample values. Minimising the variance of the errors has the unfortunate side effect of excessively smoothing ordinary kriging estimates. The effects of bias and the spread of variance about the mean error are illustrated on figure 10. Globally unbiased and conditionally biased and conditionally unbiased estimation errors are illustrated on figure 11. Geostatisticians normally calculate the variogram values at all the available lags for the sample data and select a positive definite (capable of a unique solution) random function model (or nested set of models) which best fits the spatial continuity revealed by that experimental variogram. The covariance is then used for solving the ordinary kriging system. In working the single point estimation, only the covariance function was used. This ignored the possibility of anisotropy in the distribution of values. In many cases, the spatial continuity functions will be different in different directions. Such anisotropy is usually captured in three directions in the kriging system. For a tabular ore body, the geological description of those three directions would be along strike, down dip and at right angles to the distribution of the ore body. The selected random function model can only be used for point estimations within the domain for which the model approximates the true distribution of data values. The domains may be defined by variography but they usually reflect geological controls of mineralisation. Block estimates are based on averaging the point estimates from regularly distributed points within the block. Discretisation, determining the number of point estimates required, aims to identify the number above which more point estimates do not significantly alter the estimate. As the number of point estimates increases exponentially, the lowest acceptable number can save a great deal of computation time. Average block grade estimates can be calculated

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UNSW Mining Engineering

directly from the kriging equations, providing they are modified to take account of the coordinates of the discretising points. This makes for more complex kriging equations but reduces computation substantially. Ordinary kriging can be a good estimator of block grade and a better estimator of global grade. It is sensitive to extremes of grade; smoothing can spread high grades into low grade areas and vice versa. Estimating grades of small blocks from widely spaced data can result in large estimation errors. The aim of minimising error variance means that ordinary kriging is an optimisation which may not suit the needs of determining mining block grades in order to separate ore from waste. Alternatives to ordinary kriging include the non-linear kriging methods: Indicator Kriging, Log-normal Kriging, Disjunctive Kriging, Uniform Conditioning and Multi-Gaussian Kriging. These are better able to deal with the problems of extreme sample values. The kriging estimates produced by these methods can be interpreted directly as a conditional probability or as the mean of a conditional distribution. Indicator Kriging (including Multi Indicator Kriging) is generally the best of the non-linear kriging methods (personal opinion). The estimates it produces are conditional probabilities. Conditional simulation endeavours to generate a set of simulated values on a specified spatial grid where: the histogram and the variogram of the simulated values are very similar to that of the conditioning data; the simulated values are the same as the conditioning data values at data locations. If several geostatistical populations are defined, the simulated values in each of the populations should have the above properties. A properly constructed Conditional Simulation may be considered as one possible reality in that it honours the known properties of reality. It can provide a model of uncertainty for the grade of a mineable block which can be integrated with a loss function for a particular mining operation to achieve optimal ore selection. Conditional simulation is not compatible with current pit optimisation software.

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An Introduction to Applied Geostatistics

Table 11.1 Distances to sample values in the vicinity of 65E,137N

Distance

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Sample No. 225 437 367 52 259 436 366

X 61 63 64 68 71 73 75

Y 139 140 129 128 140 141 128

477 696 227 646 606 791 783

from 65E,137N 4.5 3.6 8.1 9.5 6.7 8.9 13.5

140

130

60

70

80

Figure 11.1 The data configuration shown in this figure is used to illustrate several point estimation methods in the following sections. The goal is to estimate the value of V at the point 65E,137N, located by the arrow, from the surrounding seven V data values.

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(a)

140

130

60

70

80

(b)
791

140 477

696

130
227 645

753

60

70

80

Figure 11.4 (a) The polygons of influence and (b), Delaunay triangles for the data configuration given in Figure 10.1.

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Figure 11.2 A perspective view showing the discontinuities inherent in polygonal estimates.
696

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AOIK

Figure 11.5 An example showing how three nearest data can be weighted by triangular areas to form a point estimate. The data are located at the corners of the triangle. The data value at I is weighted by the triangle area AOJK, at J by area AO1K, and at K by Aon.

(22.5)(696) + (12.0)(227) + (9.5)(606)

44

548.7 ppm

Table 11.2 Inverse distance weighting calculations for sample values in the vicinity of 65E,137N

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Sample No. 225 437 367 52 259 436 366

X 61 63 64 68 71 73 75

Y 139 140 129 128 140 141 128

V 477 696 227 646 606 791 783

Distance from 65E,137N 4.5 3.6 8.1 9.5 6.7 8.9 13.5 El/di =

1/di 0.2222 0.2778 0.1235 0.1053 0.1493 0.1124 0.0741 1.0644

0.2088 0.2610 0.1160 0.0989 0.1402 0.1056 0.0696

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Table 11.3 The effect of the inverse distance exponent on the sample weights and on the V estimate. 1/de V 1 477 696 2 3 227 646 4 606 5 6 791 7 783 it( in ppm.) p=0.2 0.1564 0.1635 0.1390 0.1347 0.1444 0.1364 0.1255 601 Local p= 0.5 0.1700 0.1858 0.1343 0.1260 0.1449 0.1294 0.1095 598 p = 1.0 0.2088 0.2610 0.1160 0.0989 0.1402 0.1056 0.0696 594 p = 2.0 0.2555 0.3993 0.0789 0.0573 0.1153
0.0653

0.0284 598

p = 5.0 0.2324 0.7093 0.0123 0.0055 0.0318 0.0077 0.0010 637

p = 10.0 0.0106 0.9874 <.0001 <.0001 0.0019 <.0001 <.0001 693

Sampik603.7

I ate-

Va-1 ude, .

x24.2

(a) 7(h) Co +

(b)

C(h)

Co + C C

Figure 12.2 An example of an exponential variogram model (a) and an exponential covariance function (b).

0 if IN = 0 51(h) = 1 Co + Ci(1 exPCIP)) if I h i > 0

(

C(h)

Co +
CiexP(411 ) 1

if = 0

if 1111>

Both of these functions, shown in Figure 12.2, can be described by the following parameters: Co, commonly called the nugget effect, which provides a discontinuity at the origin.
a, commonly called the range, which provides a distance beyond

which the variogram or covariance value remains essentially constant. Co + Ci , commonly called the sill [31, which is the variogram value for very large distances, 7(00). It is also the covariance value for IN = 0, and the variance of our random variables, 52.
ss nte, C o
/

C.:

den

ea Ln A) LL

,-0.-311,1

4h

le- ;), 2

,51inc-e

Table 12.2 A table of distances, from Figure 12.1, between all possible pairs of the seven data locations.

Location 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

0 0.00 4.47 3.61 8.06 9.49 6.71 8.94 13.45

1 4.47 0.00 2.24 10.04 13.04 10.05 12.17 17.80

2 3.61 2.24 0.00 11.05 13.00 8.00 10.05 16.97

distance 3 4 8.06 9.49 10.44 13.04 11.05 13.00 0.00 4.12 4.12 0.00 13.04 12.37 15.00 13.93 11.05 7.00

5 6.71 10.05 8.00 13.04 12.37 0.00 2.24 12.65

6 8.94 12.17 10.05 15.00 13.93 2.24 0.00 13.15

7 13.45 17.80 16.97 11.05 7.00 12.65 13.15 0.00

the C matrix is

011 C12013A A 016 ("17 I A A U14 U15 021 L,22 ti23 td24 U 25 026 027 1 031 032 033 034 035 036 037 1 041 042 043 044 045 046 C47 1
051

;..., -

061
Cr'

052 053 054 055 056 057 1 062 063 0_ 64 065 066 067 1 072 073 C74 On urn 077 1

1 1 1 1 1 1 10 10.00 5.11 0.44 0.20 0.49 0.26 0.05 1.00 5.11 10.00 0.36 0.20 0.91 0.49 0.06 1.00 0.44 0.36 10.00 2.90 0.20 0.11 0.36 1.00 0.20 0.20 2.90 10.00 0.24 0.15 1.22 1.00 0.49 0.91 0.20 0.24- 10.00 5.11 0.22 1.00 0.26 0.49 0.11 0.15 5.11 10.00 0.19 1.00 0.05 0.06 0.36 1.22 0.22 0.19 10.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.00 The D matrix is
010 C20 030 C40 050 C60 C70

D=

1 The inverse of C is

2.61 3.39 0.89 0.58 1.34 0.68 0.18 1.00

0.127 -0.077 -0.013 -0.009 -0.008 -0.009 -0.012 0.136 -0.077 0.129 -0.010 -0.008 -0.015 -0.008 -0.011 0.121 - 0.013 -0.010 0.098 -0.042 -0.010 -0.010 -0.014 0.156 0.139 - 0.009 -0.008 -0.042 0.102 -0.009 -0.009 -0.024 C-1= 0.118 - 0.008 -0.015 -0.010 -0.009 0.130 -0.077 -0.012 -0.009 -0.008 -0.010 -0.009 -0.077 0.141 0.126 -0.013 -0.012 -0.011 -0.014 -0.024 -0.012 -0.013 0.085 0.188 0.156 0.139 0.136 0.121 0.118 0.188 -2.180 0.141

9475)69B (0.32) (0.17)

.9 "
(0.13)

9227 (0.13) + 848 (0.09)

9783 (09)

Figure 12.3 The ordinary kriging weights for the seven samples using the isotropic exponential covariance model given in Equation 12.25. The sample value is given immediately to the right of the plus sign while the kriging weights are shown in 1 parenthesis.

The set of weights that will provide unbiased estimates with a minimum estimation variance is calculated by multiplying C- 1 by D:
W1 W2 V,3 V,4 W5 W6 /177

w=

= C -1 D

IL.

0.173 0.318 0.129 0.086 0.151 0.057 0.086 0.907

Figure 12.3 shows the sample values along with their corresponding weights. The resulting estimate is :60

E
i=1

717iVi

(0.173)(477) + (0.318)(696) + (0.129)(227) + (0.086)(646) + (0.151)(606) + (0.057)(791) + (0.086)(783) = 592.7 ppm

(1 c (A. v 8 2 4- .2)

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262 An Introduction to Applied Geostatistics
m M 0

MIN

Residual

0 Residual

Figure 11.7 Skewed distribution of estimation error. The error distribution in (a) is positively skewed in contrast to the more or less symmetric distribution shown i (b).
m -0 Mt, 0 .

-hi
Residual Residual

Figure 11.8 The error distribution in (a) shows a greater spread or variance about the mean error, than (b).
m <0 -m>0
.11n

_j_ 131a0

nn

nn

1
0 Residual

--F
0 Re idual 0
Residual

Figure 11.6 Biased hypothetical distributions of error. In (a) the distribution of estimation errors indicates a negative bias, in (b), a positive bias, and in (c), no bias.

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An Introduction to Applied Geostatistics

35

+
+

+ * ++ ++++ + + +2- + * + ++ + ++ + . ++ * -F +14+ 4+ ++ + + ++

+IF

+ +

+ ++ + + 4. + + -FF + Ilt+t + + + + + 1 -it- 4 .+ 40 . .;-4. : Vitt. .. t +++ + + * + +if + ++ + +

+ + + 41++4+ .

++
-35

0 Estimated Values

90

-35 0 Estimated Values

90

Figure 11.10 In (a) the estimation error or residuals are globally unbiased, however they are conditionally biased. For some ranges of estimates the average of the residuals will not be equal to 0. In (b) the estimates are globally unbiased as well as conditionally unbiased; for any range of estimates, the positive residuals balance the negative residuals.

ANISOTROPY POINT ESTIMATION EXAMPLES ASSUMED ISOTROPY UNCOMMON IN MOST MINERALISED SYSTEMS ANISOTROPY USUALLY REVEALED BY VARIOGRAPHY IN 3 DIRECTIONS, WITH THE GEOLOGICAL CONNOTATION BEING: ALONG STRIKE, DOWN DIP, ACROSS LAYERING. OTHER POSSIBILITIES EXIST DOMAINS AREA OR VOLUME WHERE SELECTED RANDOM FUNCTION MODEL APPLIES. AGAIN, DOMAINS USUALLY REFLECT GEOLOGY. BLOCK KRIGING BASED ON AVERAGE OF REGULARLY DISTRIBUTED POINT ESTIMATES. CAN BE COMPUTED DIRECTLY. DISCRETISATION ORDINARY KRIGING CAN BE A GOOD ESTIMATOR OF BLOCK GRADE, BETTER OF GLOBAL ESTIMATE. SENSITIVE TO EXTREME VALUES - SMOOTHING - OPTIMISING POOR ESTIMATOR OF SMALL BLOCK GRADES FROM WIDE SPACED DATA ALTERNATIVES TO OK NON-LINEAR KRIGING METHODS - INDICATOR AND MULTI-INDICATOR K., LOG-NORMAL K., DISJUNCTIVE K., UNIFORM CONDITIONING, MULTI-GAUSSIAN K. HANDLE EXTREME VALUES BETTER. PRODUCE ESTIMATES INTERPRETED AS CONDITIONAL PROBABILITIES OR MEANS OF CONDITIONAL DISTRIBUTIONS.

CONDITIONAL SIMULATION HISTOGRAM AND VARIOGRAM OF SIMULATED VALUES SIMILAR TO CONDITIONING DATA; SIMULATED VALUES SAME AS CONDITIONING DATA AT DATA LOCATIONS. C.S. REPRESENTS A POSSIBLE REALITY CAN BE USED TO ACHIEVE OPTIMAL ORE SELECTION NOT COMPATIBLE WITH CURRENT PIT OPTIMISATION SOFTWARE.