COURSE REVISION

EM4313 MARKETING ANALYTICS

Dr. Nguyễn Tiến Dũng
Department of Business Administration, School of Economics and Management

SECTION A: MULTICHOICE QUESTIONS

PART 1
MARKETING ANALYTICS WITH NON-DETERMINISTIC DATA
Chapter 1 Introduction to Analytics by Simulation
Main contents
1. Overview of data analytics by simulation
2. Expected value model
3. Sensitivity analysis
4. EVPI (Expected Value of Perfect Information)
5. Bayes’ Theorem and Contingency table

Multichoice Questions
1. An is working for Data Analytics Company. An must collect data and analyse the data set on
customer behaviour to report about the current features of these customers. An is doing
prescriptive analytics.
A. True
B. False.

2. A process of creating a model of what could happen in an uncertain world and using that
model to decide which course of action to take in the real world, is called …
A. business analytics
B. simulation
C. marketing analytics
D. inferential statistics

3. What is the value range of RAND() function in Excel?

A. From -1 to +1
B. From -1 to 0
C. From 0 to close to 1
D. From 0 to 1

4. Denote A = Setting up trials and computing the average of the objective function; B =
Determining the objective function; C = Optimization; D = Excluding the random fluctuation
of RAND() in the sheet. What is the analytic process by simulation in Excel?
A. ABCD.
B. BADC.
C. CDBA.
D. DCBA.

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5. What is the ultimate objective of simulation analysis?
A. To run trials as many as possible.
B. To find the best solution for optimization problems.
C. To understand the uncertain nature of practical problems.
D. To compute the expected value of the objective function.

6. The Excel’s procedure Solver could help solve optimization problems with uncertain data.
A. True.
B. False.

7. What does it mean by the following picture?

A. Law of Independence
B. Law of Large Numbers
C. Law of Normal Probability Distribution
D. Law of Continuous Randomness

8. A package delivery company owns 15 trucks in this region. Five of the trucks are new and
each of these trucks has a 5% chance of not being in service on any day. The other 10 trucks
are older and have a 10% chance of not being in service on any day. The contractor needs 14
trucks to deliver packages tomorrow. What is the probability that the contractor will have
enough trucks (service level)?
A. 0.3708
B. 0.9673
C. 0.9821
D. 0.6406

9. You have two alternatives to invest an amount of money. In the Alternative 1, you will
certainly receive $1000. In the Alternative 2, you have a chance of 60% to get $3000 and could
be lost all the invested money. A market research firm offers you a perfect information that you
can use this information to make the best decision in any cases. What price are you willing to
pay for this information?
A. $100
B. $500
C. $300
D. $400

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10. You have two alternatives to invest an amount of money. In Alternative 1, you will certainly
receive $1000. In Alternative 2, you have a probability of p to get $3000 and could be lost all
the invested money if you are in a bad luck. In what conditions, Alternative 2 is better than
Alternative 1?
A. p > 0.3333
B. p < 0.3333
C. p > 0.5000
D. p < 0.3500

11. Two factories, A and B, produce radios. Each radio produced in factory A has a 5%
probability of being defective; whereas each radio produced in factory B has a 1% probability
of being defective. Both factories produce the same number of radios.

11a. If you buy a radio, what is the probability that you will get a defective radio?
A. 0.04
B. 0.03
C. 0.05
D. 0.02

11b. If you get a defective radio, what is the probability that the radio came from factory A?
A. 0.833
B. 0.667
C. 0.725
D. 0.914

11c. Suppose you purchase two radios that were produced at the same factory. If the first radio
that you check is defective, what is the conditional probability that the other one is also
defective?
A. 0.471
B. 0.052
C. 0.030
D. 0.043

11d. Suppose that instead of the production of both factories being equal, that factory B
produces 50% more radios. If you get a defective radio, what is the probability that the radio
came from factory A?
A. 0.769
B. 0.833
C. 0.800
D. 0.725

12. A cab was involved in a hit-and-run accident at night. Two cab companies, the Green and
Blue, operate in the city. 85% of the cabs in the city are Green and 15% are Blue. A witness
identified the cab as Blue. The court tested the reliability of the witness under the same
circumstances that existed on the night of the accident and concluded that the witness correctly
identified each one of the two colours 80% of the time and failed 20% of the time. What is the
probability that the cab involved in the accident was Blue rather than Green?
A. 0.672

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B. 0.414
C. 0.290
D. 0.815

Chapter 2 Simulation Analytics with Subjective Distribution

Main contents
1. Uniform continuous distribution
2. Uniform discrete distribution
3. Triangular distribution
4. Five-point distribution

Multichoice Questions
1. Demand for a particular class of hotel rooms is uniform between 10 and 20. The hotel has a
capacity of 17 such rooms. What is the probability that they will have to turn customers away,
that is, what is the probability of shortage?
A. 0.4682
B. 0.7273
C. 0.3000
D. 0.2727

2. Suppose demand for T-shirts at a concert is estimated to be somewhere between 5% and

10% of ticket sales. What is the probability that demand will be less than 7% of ticket sales?
A. 0.600
B. 0.400
C. 0.500
D. 0.700

3. A shipping company has an overstock of packing material it wishes to sell via an auction.
The company has 7.25 tons of the packing material and estimates that the material will sell
for somewhere between $0.40 per pound and $0.60 per pound. Compute the probability that
the company will receive more than $6000. Note that 1 ton equals 2000 pounds.
A. 0.7589
B. 0.9310
C. 0.8286
D. 0.8500

4. What is the correct formula to build F(x) for a uniform discrete distribution?
A. F(x) = (x-a)/(b-a)
B. F(x) = (x-a+1)/(b-a+1)
C. F(x) = (x- Mean)/Standard deviation
D. All the answers are not correct.

5. What is the correct formula to simulate a demand with a uniform discrete distribution with
the range from a to b (a < b)?
A. a + RAND()*(b-a)
B. (x-a+1)/(b-a+1)
C. TRUNC((x-a+1)/(b-a+1))*RAND()

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D. a + TRUNC(RAND()*(b-a+1)

6. A brand manager is asked to estimate the time for a new product to be developed and brought
to market. She estimates, based on past experience with similar new products and customers,
that it will take at least 4 months, and at most 9 months, to get the product to market. She also
estimates that it will most likely take about 6 months to get the product to market. The product
is seasonal with the start of the season beginning 7 months from now and lasting for 3 months.
What is the likelihood that the product will be ready by the beginning of the season?
A. 0.7250
B. 0.7333
C. 0.6667
D. 0.8362

Chapter 3 Simulation Analytics with Empirical Distribution

Main contents
1. Discrete empirical distribution
2. Continuous empirical distribution

Multichoice questions
1. On Thursday evening, the manager of a small branch of a car rental agency finds that she
has six cars available for rental on the following day. However, she is able to request delivery
of additional cars, at a cost of $20 each, from the regional depot. Each car that is rented
produces an expected profit of $40 (not including the $20 of delivery cost if incurred). After
reviewing records for previous Fridays, the manager finds that the number of cars requested on
20 previous Fridays is: 7, 9, 8, 7, 10, 8, 7, 8, 9, 10, 7, 6, 8, 9, 8, 8, 6, 7, 7, 9.

1a. What is the expected value of car rental demand?

A. 6.8
B. 7.9
C. 8.5
D. 9.1

1b. How many cars should be ordered to maximize the expected profit?
A. 8
B. 9
C. 10
D. 7

1c. Suppose there is a consultant who could provide the perfect information so that the branch
could get the best profit. What is the maximum value of the information that the branch is
willing to pay?
A. $12
B. $34
C. $28
D. $18

Chapter 4 Simulation Analytics with Theoretical Distribution

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Main contents
1. Binomial distribution
2. Poisson distribution
3. Normal distribution
4. Normal approximation for other distributions

Multichoice questions
1. As a sales promotion, a soft drink manufacturer places winning symbols under the caps of
10% of all soft drink bottles. You buy a six-bottle pack of soft drinks, what is the probability
that you will win a prize?
A. 0.4686
B. 0.5314
C. 0.7152
D. 0.3985

2. A contractor is planning a construction project to be completed in three stages. The contractor

has estimated that the chance that the first stage will be completed on time is 70%. She has also
estimated that if the first stage is completed on time, the chance that the second stage will be
completed on time is 80%. Finally, she has estimated that given both the first and second stages
are completed on time, the chance of the third stage will be completed on time is 90%. What is
the probability the project will be completed on time?
A. 0.496
B. 0.642
C. 0.504
D. 0.835

3. A bakery owns three delivery trucks of the same age. Based on previous service records, the
probability that a single truck will be in service on any given day is 95%. What is the probability
of having at least two trucks in service tomorrow?
A. 0.9643
B. 0.9997
C. 0.9928
D. 0.7527

4. A resort hotel has a 10% rate of guests with reservations that do not show up (no shows) for
the rooms they reserved. If the hotel has 80 rooms and they accept 85 reservations, what is the
probability of shortage?
A. 0.0933
B. 0.1378
C. 0.0582
D. 0.0643

5. A bank has an average of 8 defaults per month for a particular loan portfolio in a specific
region. Suppose the number of defaults has a Poisson distribution. What is the probability of
more than 6 defaults?
A. 0.3134
B. 0.7721
C. 0.6866

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D. 0.5783

6. Demand for diesel fuel for a single day for a delivery truck is normally distributed that has
the mean of 50 gallons and than variance of 9 squared gallons. What is the probability that the
demand will be less than or equal to 56 gallons for a single day?
A. 0.9772
B. 0.9514
C. 0.7684
D. 0.8951

7. Demand for diesel fuel for a single day for a delivery truck is normally distributed that has
the mean of 50 gallons and than variance of 9 squared gallons. What is the value corresponding
to the 90th percentile; in other words, the value that has a 90% probability that the random
variable will be less than or equal to it.
A. 55.16
B. 53.84
C. 49.72
D. 51.89

8. A delivery service has a fleet of 60 trucks. Each day, the probability of a truck being out of
use due to factors such as breakdowns or maintenance is 10%. Using normal approximation
for a binomial distribution. What is the probability that seven or more trucks are out of service
at any time?
A. 0.5017
B. 0.6783
C. 0.4149
D. 0.5852

9. An oil company purchases crude oil for use to manufacture gasoline by bidding in a
commodities market. Currently, bids for crude oil are Normally distributed with an average of
$68.15 per barrel with a standard deviation of $1.75. What is the probability of winning if you
bid $67.00?
A. 0.8683
B. 0.2555
C. 0.7445
D. 0.6774

PART 2
MARKETING ANALYTICS WITH DETERMISTIC DATA
(DATA-DRIVEN ANALYSIS WITH EXCEL AND SPSS)

SPSS – Chapter 1 Data classification, coding, inputting, and variable processing

1. In SPSS, the measure “Scale” in the Variable View windows means that the data type is
interval.
A. True B. False

2. In SPSS, the variable type of Category means that the variable is numeric with more than

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two values.
A. True B. False

3. In SPSS, when you do not type a value into the cell of a variable in Data View windows, it
means that the value of that variable is 0 (zero).
A. True B. False

SPSS - Chapter 2 Cleaning a data file

1. The only method for cleaning a data file in SPSS is the use of “Find” command in the Data
View window.
A. True B. False

SPSS – Chapter 3 Data summarization and presentation

1. There is a variable of Gender in a SPSS data file. You define 1 = male, 2 = female and 3 =
other. You want to make a frequency table. The appropriate command is “Descriptive Statistics
→ Frequencies.”
A. True B. False

2. There is a variable of Customer Reading Habit a SPSS customer survey data file. You define
10 different types of newspapers. You want to make a frequency table for that variable. The
appropriate command is “Descriptive Statistics → Frequencies”.
A. True B. False

SPSS – Chapter 4 Testing two qualitative variables

There is a statistical table between the education level and the newspaper reading type as
follows.

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1. The degree of freedom in the Chi-square test is 12.
A. True B. False
2. The conclusion of the Chi-square test is that there is a positive relationship between the two
variables.
A. True B. False

SPSS – Chapter 5 Testing for population means

1. You want to compare the means of the readers’ age to the fixed value of 30. What is the
appropriate testing technique in SPSS?
A. One-Sample T Test
B. Independent Samples T Test
C. Paired Samples T Test
D. One-way ANOVA

There is a statistical testing table in SPSS as follows.

2. What is the testing type?

A. One-Sample T Test
B. Independent Samples T Test
C. Paired Samples T Test
D. One-way ANOVA
3. What is the purpose of Levene’s Test?
A. To check whether the population variances are equal or not
B. To examine whether the population variables are equal or not
C. To test whether the population means are equal or not
D. All the answers are incorrect.
4. You want to read the result of t-test for Equality of Means. What row or column should you
read?
A. The “Equal variances assumed” column
B. The “Equal variances not assumed” column
C. The “Mean Difference” row
D. The “Sig. (2-tailed)” row.

5. There is a statistical table as follows. What is the testing type?

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 A. One-Sample T Test
B. Independent Samples T Test
C. Paired Samples T Test
D. One-way ANOVA
SPSS – Chapter 6 ANOVA
There are statistical tables as follows.

1. What is the testing type?

A. Independent Samples T Test
B. Paired Samples T Test
C. One-way ANOVA
D. Two-way ANOVA

2. What is the conclusion of this test?

A. Population means of the life style are different among the four education groups at the 95%
confidence level.
B. Population means of the life style are not significantly different among the four education
groups at the 95% confidence level.
C. The test is not valid.
D. All the answers are correct.

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A researcher wants to test whether Major preference and Self-study studiousness have an
impact on Student GPA. In SPSS, a graph to show the test results is as follows. At the 94%
confidence level, this result means …

3. Self-study studiousness has a positive impact on GPA

A. True B. False
4. Major preference has a positive impact on GPA
A. True B. False
5. There is an interactive impact of Major preference and Self-study studiousness on GPA.
A. True B. False

SPSS – Chapter 10 Binary Logistics Regression

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1. A binary logistic regression is an extended version of a simple regression.
A. True B. False.
2. The test statistic for a binary logistic model is -2LL.
A. True B. False.

SPSS – Chapter 11 Scale Reliability Test

1. For what purpose is the Cronbach’s Alpha test?
A. To test the reliability of a multi-dimensional measurement scale for a construct.
B. To test the reliability of a multi-dimensional measurement scale for a research variable.
C. To test the reliability of a set of multichoice questions
D. To test the reliability of a set of true-false questions.

The following is a Cronbach’s Alpha test result.

2. The scale to measure the interested concept has four dimensions.

A. True B. False.
3. From the collected data, it could be said that the scale has an acceptable reliability.
A. True B. False

SPSS – Chapter 12 Factor analysis and PCA

There are statistical tables for a toothpaste customer survey as follows.

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1. The testing method is exploratory factor analysis.
A. True B. False
2. The result shows that it could extract main factors from the six initial variables.
A. True B. False.
3. The appropriate number of factors that are extracted from the initial variables are from one
to three.
A. True B. False.

Marketing Analytics - Data-Driven Techniques with Excel

There is an Excel data table as follows.

1. What is the analytic technique that will be used?

A. Principal Component Analysis (PCA)
B. Conjoint Analysis
C. Multi-dimensional Scaling
D. Factor Analysis

There is a survey on customer preferences for the attributes of brand, design, price, approval,
and guarantee. The testing product is a soft drink. The output variable is customer preference
rank on products. The results are as follows.

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2. All the attributes have significant impact on customer ranking
A. True B. False.
3. Price has the highest impact on the likelihood of customer choice.
A. True B. False.

There is a graph as follows.

4. What is the analysis technique?

A. Factor analysis
B. Cluster analysis
C. Multi-dimensional scaling
D. Conjoint analysis

5. What is the diagram name?

A. Decision Point chart
B. Dendogram
C. Clustered bar chart
D. Hierarchical cluster analysis

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SECTION B: ESSAY QUESTIONS
Analytics by simulation
A brand manager is asked to estimate the time for a new product to be developed and brought
to market. She estimates, based on experience with similar new products and customers, that it
will take at least 4 months, and at most 9 months, to get the product to market. She also
estimates that half the previous products took longer 6 months to get the product to market.
Furthermore, she also estimated that three quarters of the products took longer than 5.5 months
(about 22 weeks) to reach the market and three quarters of the products reached the market in
less than 7.5 months. The product is seasonal with the start of the season beginning 7 months
from now and lasting for 3 months.
Denote y = F(x) is the cumulative probability function (CDF), x is the time for the new product
development.
a) Construct a CDF table for computing y and the coefficients of the equation y = b0 +
b1.x
b) What is the likelihood that the new product will be available in the market at the
beginning of the sales season?
c) To do simulation, there is a need to compute the inverse function x = a0 + a1. y. Build
the table x depending on y and the coefficients of a0, a1.

Specialized and post-hoc analysis in SPSS

There are selected methods that are commonly used in marketing research and analytics as
follows:
1. One-Sample T Test
2. Independent Samples T Test
3. Paired Samples T Test
4. One-way ANOVA
5. Pearson Correlation
6. Spearman Rank Correlation
7. Chi-square Test
8. Simple Regression
9. Multiple Regression
10. Factor Analysis / Principal Component Analysis
11. Cronbach’s Alpha
12. Cluster Analysis

For each type of the following analysis techniques/methods, you should catch the main points
as follows:
a) What is the purpose of the technique?
b) What are the steps to implement the analysis?
c) What are the key results or test statistic? How to read the results? How do you know
about whether the test is significant or not?
d) What are the assumptions for the test validity (if yes)?

HAVE A GOOD STUDY!

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