Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Special Report 26
Killer Debts
FCCBs due for redemption
will haunt some companies
over the next two years
Broker's Best 80
R Sreesankar
Sr Vice President &
Head – Institutional Equity
Tata Securities
Fund's Focus 84
Arvind Bansal
VP & Head-Multi Manager
Investments Cover Story 68
ING Investment Management
In Choppy Waters
Special Report- IAP..................16
Databank ................................. 35
Portfolio Guide........................ 76
Analysis 32 Market Moves ......................... 78
Post Issue Analysis ................... 82
Lumax Auto Technologies Letters to Editor ..................... 96
Illuminating Ensure Liquidity Informed Intelligence .............. 98
Its Way Ahead And Also Returns Readers Can Access Complete Databank
On Our Website www DSIJ.in
Where Is
Long Term Money?
M
ore and more investors are deserting the long term investments
philosophy in the country. This is not good for the country in
the long run. An analysis done by one broking firm reveals that
the Options market now controls 64 per cent of the trading volume on
the bourses followed by Futures with 32.5 per cent while Cash segment
now accounts for a mere 3.6 per cent of the trading volume. This is the
lowest in the lifetime of the Indian markets. This trend clearly suggests
that investors are doing more speculative trading rather than investing for
the long term. The whole investment cycle has now shrunk to Intra-day
managingeditor@DSIJ.in and Intra-hours. This is not the best way to nurture India Inc’s growth
ambitions. Indian Inc needs long term money to fund its capex and this
can happen only if investors start investing for the long term. Even data
released by Association of Mutual Funds in India (AMFI) on the number
of investors in the equity segment is equally disturbing. The number of
With Petrol prices portfolios in the Mutual Fund industry is decreasing showing that more
and more people are taking out money from the equity Mutual funds
already hiked and investing somewhere else. These have declined from 4.02 crore in
FY 2010 to 3.86 crore in FY 2011. I have been informed that many
and a diesel and investors incurred heavy losses in Gold and Silver by trying to speculate
LPG price hike these volatile commodities. These investors redeemed their schemes from
mutual funds to ride the bull rally in bullion. Even the response to the
on the cards we IPO market suggests that no one seems to be interested in investing in
are all heading for IPOs for a long term. People are only looking at listing gains. I am afraid
if this trend continues, India is heading for disaster. I am not saying we
higher inflation don’t want speculators in the market but the amount of activity they are
and probably more controlling is not a good sign.
measures from This time our cover story is on the impact of Interest rate hike on the
economy and India Inc. The way interest rates are surging, they have a
RBI to curb the tremendous potential of slowing down the economy. In the last issue,
same. This would in this column I had mentioned that India’s GDP growth numbers may
get shaved off by 50-100 basis points and with RBI taking giant steps to
definitely have curb inflation we are definitely going to see the economy slowing down.
an impact on the If India achieves 8 per cent GDP growth rate this year everyone would
be pleasantly surprised. The most realistic picture is a 7.5 per cent GDP
indices. growth for the current year. We need to brace ourselves for a slower
economic growth. With Petrol prices already hiked and a diesel and LPG
price hike on the cards we are all heading for higher inflation and probably
more measures from RBI to curb the same. This would definitely have an
impact on the indices. Our advise to readers is - don’t expect any major
uptrend in the stock market in near future. Play your cards well and invest
for the long term rather than speculating on the bourses.
SUNIL DAMANIA
Managing Editor
The way this figure is interpreted is thus expect a further hike in interest of pressure.
that if CLI is decreasing and is below rates in the months of June and July.
100 it connotes a slowdown in the This will ultimately impact the busi- Impact On Sectors
economic activity which is the case ness growth which is already struggling Needless to say that interest rate-
with India. CLI for India has been from higher commodity prices. Here is sensitive sectors and companies with
below 100 since January 2011 and a check on the sectors and companies a larger debt to equity ratio will be
is decreasing month on month. The that are likely to face a higher level most affected by the rising interest
fact that the economy is decelerating
is further reiterated by the recent ‘on
the record’ acceptance by the finance
minister that the Indian economy will
expand at a rate of 8 per cent for the
year FY12, lower than what he had
projected in his last budget speech of
February 2011.
Therefore, it is quite clear that ris-
ing inflation and interest rate is weigh-
ing heavy on the economic growth
rate. But the worse news is that despite
raising rates by nine times since March
2010, the interest rates have not
peaked out. According to S Raman,
CMD, Canara Bank, “Going forward
there will be a rate hike in the range of
50-75 bps depending upon how the
current increase in interest rates affects
the macro-economic factors.” One can
CHINA S KOREA
-0.20% -2.29%
(3.25) (2.75)
HONG KONG
INDIA -1.15% (-0.32)
-1.88% (-11.56)
SINGAPORE
BRAZIL 0.73%
-1.22% (-8.87) (-2.36)
Figures represent performance of indices during the fortnight. Figures in brackets represent YTD performance of indices
Sober Markets
The markets are taking longer than expected to recover from the effect of the
RBIs recent rate hike. Investors should better wait and watch, allowing the
markets to stabilize says Amit Bhanot
I
t seems that the markets are tak- touched a peak of 5605 points on May remained indifferent and purchased
ing a longer than expected time to 13 but then derailed from its course few stocks for their kitty worth `741
recover from the shock given by the and fell to 5421 points on May 17. crore. The net combined turnover of
RBI by hiking interest rates yet again. It closed at 5438 points on the same the BSE and the NSE hovered between
Soon after the rate hike announce- day, shedding 92 points during the `10500 crore and `15098 crore.
ment during the last fortnight, the fortnight. Individually Ranbaxy gained 17.51
markets started tumbling and contin- Globally the subdued environ- per cent followed by Hindustan Liver,
ued to do so this fortnight too as ment was quite visible among the HDIL, United Brew., and Mundra
economists are predicting a slowing in markets with almost all indices barring port that gained 15.56 per cent, 14.20
the growth momentum. At the same Singapore’s STI falling like a bullet hit per cent, 12.59 per cent and 11.75 per
time the Inflation monster is far from war plane. The US Dow lost 1.38 per cent respectively. On the other hand
being tamed, adding to the woes of cent in the fortnight but the biggest Manarpuram Finance was the biggest
the market. loser was Japan’s Nikkei with a 3.27 loser with a 13.10 per cent decline fol-
The BSE Sensex opened at 18484 per cent decline followed by Seoul lowed by SKS Microfinance, Piramal
points on May 5 and gained some Composite, Brazil’s Bovespa, Hong Healthcare, Renuka Sugar and ONGC
ground on the positive news of a Kong’s Hang Seng, UK’s FTSE and which declined by 12.05 per cent,
better showing by Indian Inc. and the German Dax which declined by 11.66 per cent, 10.80 per cent and
touched the highest level of the fort- 2.29 per cent, 1.22 per cent, 1.15 per 10.20 per cent respectively. Looking
night at 18724 points on May 13. cent, 1.01 per cent and 0.39 per cent at the current markets it is advisable
But it remained in a confused state respectively. It seems that FIIs are also for the investors to just follow the
throughout the fortnight and touched very concerned about the inflation sce- wait and watch policy and let the dust
a bottom of 18084 points before clos- nario and rate hike and are in a mood settle. Also it would be a good oppor-
ing at 18137 points on May 17, losing to just wait and watch. In the last fort- tunity to buy at sharp declines for intra
347 points during the fortnight. night they were net sellers to the tune day trading. DS
On the other hand the NSE Nifty of a whopping `4968 crore. On the (Wish to comment on this report? Send your
opened at 5531 points on May 5 and other hand Indian Mutual funds also feedback to amitb@dsij.in)
R
ny, earned a decent salary during his working
your financial habits as well. It has been days. He always believed that a saving account
observed that in many cases, money just was the best option available for him as it did
not contain any risk whatsoever. Therefore he
lies idle in savings bank accounts for kept all that he saved after meeting his expenses in his saving
a sheer lack of interest in making the account. By the time he retired, Naik’s savings grew, but only
marginally thanks to the low interest rate that a savings bank
earnings work further. While for some, account earns. Another flip side of a low interest earning was
liquidity and cash at hand is hardly a that inflationary trends ate into the growth, thereby making
concern. How much of money should it useless by the time Naik needed the money. As a result,
today he is struggling to meet ends and working part-time
one ideally keep handy so that immediate to be able to do so.
liquidity problems can be addressed well? Now look at the case of Satish Dixit, a regional manager
with an MNC. Dixit knows the financial markets pretty well
Vishesh Sharma tries to answer this very and has been parking his funds in the market right from the
important question for readers and helps days of his first job. His saving account does not hold any
significance for him and he maintains only the minimum
them strike a balance between liquidity required balance in the account. The rest of the money goes
and investment planning into equity markets, mutual funds, insurance and other