You are on page 1of 14

CONTENT

Special Report 26

Killer Debts
FCCBs due for redemption
will haunt some companies
over the next two years

Broker's Best 80

R Sreesankar
Sr Vice President &
Head – Institutional Equity
Tata Securities

Fund's Focus 84

Arvind Bansal
VP & Head-Multi Manager
Investments Cover Story 68
ING Investment Management

PF Cover Story 86 PLUS   


Analysis 30  Company Index........... ............6
 Technicals ................................ 12
SKS Microfinance
 Reviews.................................... 14

In Choppy Waters 

Special Report- IAP..................16
Databank ................................. 35
 Portfolio Guide........................ 76
Analysis 32  Market Moves ......................... 78
 Post Issue Analysis ................... 82
Lumax Auto Technologies  Letters to Editor ..................... 96
Illuminating Ensure Liquidity  Informed Intelligence .............. 98

Its Way Ahead And Also Returns Readers Can Access Complete Databank
On Our Website www DSIJ.in

Choice Scrip Low Priced Scrip Hot Chips


Elder Tera Software • Dr Reddy’s Lab
Pharmaceuticals • GSPL
8 10 97
QUOTE The key to making money in stocks is not to get
FOR THE scared out of them.
Peter Lynch
FORTNIGHT Famous Wall Street Investor

4 Dalal Street Investment Journal May 23 - June 5, 2011 www.DSIJ.in


From the Editor

Where Is
Long Term Money?
M
ore and more investors are deserting the long term investments
philosophy in the country. This is not good for the country in
the long run. An analysis done by one broking firm reveals that
the Options market now controls 64 per cent of the trading volume on
the bourses followed by Futures with 32.5 per cent while Cash segment
now accounts for a mere 3.6 per cent of the trading volume. This is the
lowest in the lifetime of the Indian markets. This trend clearly suggests
that investors are doing more speculative trading rather than investing for
the long term. The whole investment cycle has now shrunk to Intra-day
managingeditor@DSIJ.in and Intra-hours. This is not the best way to nurture India Inc’s growth
ambitions. Indian Inc needs long term money to fund its capex and this
can happen only if investors start investing for the long term. Even data
released by Association of Mutual Funds in India (AMFI) on the number
of investors in the equity segment is equally disturbing. The number of
With Petrol prices portfolios in the Mutual Fund industry is decreasing showing that more
and more people are taking out money from the equity Mutual funds
already hiked and investing somewhere else. These have declined from 4.02 crore in
FY 2010 to 3.86 crore in FY 2011. I have been informed that many
and a diesel and investors incurred heavy losses in Gold and Silver by trying to speculate
LPG price hike these volatile commodities. These investors redeemed their schemes from
mutual funds to ride the bull rally in bullion. Even the response to the
on the cards we IPO market suggests that no one seems to be interested in investing in
are all heading for IPOs for a long term. People are only looking at listing gains. I am afraid
if this trend continues, India is heading for disaster. I am not saying we
higher inflation don’t want speculators in the market but the amount of activity they are
and probably more controlling is not a good sign.
measures from This time our cover story is on the impact of Interest rate hike on the
economy and India Inc. The way interest rates are surging, they have a
RBI to curb the tremendous potential of slowing down the economy. In the last issue,
same. This would in this column I had mentioned that India’s GDP growth numbers may
get shaved off by 50-100 basis points and with RBI taking giant steps to
definitely have curb inflation we are definitely going to see the economy slowing down.
an impact on the If India achieves 8 per cent GDP growth rate this year everyone would
be pleasantly surprised. The most realistic picture is a 7.5 per cent GDP
indices. growth for the current year. We need to brace ourselves for a slower
economic growth. With Petrol prices already hiked and a diesel and LPG
price hike on the cards we are all heading for higher inflation and probably
more measures from RBI to curb the same. This would definitely have an
impact on the indices. Our advise to readers is - don’t expect any major
uptrend in the stock market in near future. Play your cards well and invest
for the long term rather than speculating on the bourses.

SUNIL DAMANIA
Managing Editor

www.DSIJ.in May 23 - June 5, 2011 Dalal Street Investment Journal 5


F
or a population of more than Indians at best are happy to plough to make money by taking risks, what is
one and a half billion the size of back their savings into safer havens needed is far more than what is being
those who are actively investing, like bank fixed deposits or the old and done. We are not at all suggesting that
particularly in the equity markets, has familiar post office schemes which everything can be done at one go. But
always been a point of concern. From they feel are far more secure. This there are a lot of initiatives that are
policy makers to regulators and various naturally leaves a major part of the presently stepping up their efforts in
intermediaries who form a part of this population outside of the scope of cap- this direction.
very vibrant eco-system, the lack of italistic growth that is being offered by We at DSIJ have gained a whole
participation of the masses has always many other avenues, particularly the lot of experience in the wake of con-
been a subject of debate. Despite the equity markets. ducting the first leg of our Investor
best efforts it has not reached a mean- This is exactly where creating Awareness Programme (IAP) through-
ingful level and hence has not been awareness among investors becomes out the northern part of India. We
instrumental in creating inclusive very important. But is investor aware- have realised that there is a much
growth. India is among the fastest ness only about trying to tell investors larger need for more such programmes
growing economies - probably only of the do’s and don’ts while putting only from the experience that we
next to China - and in order to broad- their money in the market? Our expe- have gained thus far. Reaching out to
base the benefits of this growth among rience tells us otherwise. From the investors across various classes and
the masses what is really required is to various programmes that we at DSIJ across the length and breadth of the
channelise the vast savings potential have conducted very recently through- country is far more important than
of the population into proper avenues out a large part of northern India, just trying to focus on metros, Tier I
which could fetch them good returns there seems to be something more that or Tier II cities. This is amply reflected
over a period of time. investors are looking out for than what in the response that our programmes
This is however no mean task. The is being offered to them in the name have generated in smaller towns like
higher savings rate of the Indian popu- of creating awareness. From first-time a Varanasi in Uttar Pradesh or a
lation itself speaks about how funds are investors to those who have burnt their Ludhiana in Punjab.
not being deployed into wealth creat- fingers in the market and from the While education about the how’s
ing avenues in a meaningful manner. risk-averse to those who have managed and where’s of investing for those who

16 Dalal Street Investment Journal May 23 - June 5, 2011 www.DSIJ.in


are new to the market is a very critical investor education at CDSL, had to
element which needs to be handled, it state about the problems that investors
is also important to create a solid plat- come to them with. “The main prob-
form for handling investor grievances. lem is always of having been cheated
Look at what one of the participants by the broker. Basically, if you take a
at our programmes had written to us. practical view of this problem there is
“If a promoter is not corresponding no way that the broker will do things
with the exchanges it is his fault, why without your knowledge. When you
penalise investors for this? Why are open an account with the broker you
investors being punished by suspend- sign a whole set of documents and the
ing the company? There are around devil lies in the fine print of these doc- Our Investor Awareness Programme held at
Ahmedabad on 25 March 2011
1,600 companies which have been sus- uments. We always urge people to read
pended by the BSE. Something needs the documents carefully before signing enough for creating investor aware-
to be done in the interest of investors them,” he says. These are larger issues ness. Once you reach one level there is
who have invested their money in which need to be tackled in order another benchmark to be covered. The
such companies and do not have an to build confidence among investors one point that is clear is that we are
exit option,” said Nikhil Gupta from about the safety of their hard-earned not doing enough because this is obvi-
Kanpur. money. ously a large thing,” opines Ambarish
This is not a one-off case. There Datta, MD & CEO, BSE Training
are issues which have been languish- Points To Note Institute. While awareness and educa-
ing for years without being addressed • The higher savings rate of the tion are often used interchangeably in
properly. “We have deposited in FDs Indian population itself speaks the investing context, there is a clear
of Morepen Laboratories and instead about how funds are not being demarcation between the two concepts.
of paying any amount back to us deployed into wealth creating This distinction comes out very clearly
on maturity, the company has issued avenues in a meaningful in the various initiatives that are pres-
shares to those who had invested manner. ently being pursued by organisations.
in the FDs. The company claims to In terms of awareness there is a lot
have done all this through a sanc- • There are instances where that is being done by the BSE in asso-
tioned scheme of arrangement of the investors are not aware of even ciation with CDSL and other partners,
High Court of Himachal Pradesh. We the basics. including DSIJ. In fact the BSE had
have never applied for shares nor have created an investor protection centre
• Investor education is also
we moved any court or CLB for any way back in 1986 and the money is
to do with the creation of a
purposes. We want the payment as being spent on investor awareness pro-
sound workforce to cater to the
per what was contracted for which we grammes, not just now, but for a long
market.
have made several requests to the time. “We are mainly engaged in inves-
company,” stated Awadhesh Kumar tor education and other things that
Misra, a participant of the IAP held On the other hand, there are are related to investor awareness. A
in Lucknow. instances where investors are not aware secretariat was created in August 2010.
In fact, CDSL, which has been very of even the basics. Take, for example, We tie up with other organisations to
active in investor awareness creation the case of the power of attorneys cater to investor education.” informs
throughout the country, has a very (PoA) which brokers make their cli- C Vasudevan, General Manager, IPF
interesting perspective on the prob- ents sign. How many do you think Secretariat, BSE.
lems of the investors. Look at what are aware of what is the need or for Investor education, on the other
Chandrashekhar Thakur, the head of that matter if there is any compulsion hand, has more to do with the creation
of signing such a PoA? The same set of a sound workforce to cater to the
of documents often turns out to be a market. It is more like training the
thorn in the client-member relation- trainers and many institutions have
ship thanks to certain unscrupulous taken the lead in this too. “There is
elements in the market. This is where a huge difference between investor
the need to inform, educate and make awareness and education. Awareness is
investors aware of how to be safe rather a very small part of education which
than sorry is of utmost importance. is very focused. We cannot do both at
So are we doing enough in that the same time. Both have a different
direction of developing a healthy perspective altogether,” Datta says. On
capital market? “There can never be the investor education front there are
enough for creating investor awareness various initiatives that are presently
Our Investor Awareness Programme held at as there is no end to it. There is no trying to do their bit in this space.
Varanasi on 25 March 2011 way to measure whether you have done There is, for instance, the National

www.DSIJ.in May 23 - June 5, 2011 Dalal Street Investment Journal 17


Cover Story

68 Dalal Street Investment Journal May 23 - June 5, 2011 www.DSIJ.in


“H
igh inflation negates this will have a short-term impact and
prospects of growth,” particularly so on the interest sensitive
said RBI governor sectors. Let us analyse the reasons for
D Subbarao while recently speak- such high inflation and why the RBI
ing at the Indira Gandhi Institute of has to take such actions.
Development Research in Mumbai.
In a nutshell it reflects the status of The Inflation Itch
the current Indian macro economic After taking baby steps for almost
situation that has been struggling with a year and raising rates by 25 basis
high inflation for quite some time. points (bps) eight times, on May 03,
Now add to that the recent price rise in 2011 the RBI hiked the policy rates
petrol and the expected hike in diesel by 50 bps. It went in for a higher rate
prices which will further fuel inflation hike this time as the earlier rate hikes
and you would see why the situation had failed to yield the desired result
is not that comfortable. Persistently to address the key issue of rising infla-
high inflation adversely impacts the tionary pressures. Why have inflation-
growth of the corporate sector. Till ary pressures not come under control
now we have not witnessed much of an despite having hiked rates eight times
impact of rising inflation and interest prior to the latest hike? “RBI’s steps are
on India Inc’s financials but going for- not at all enough to reign in inflation
ward we believe it will definitely hurt and it needs major policy initiatives
the growth of the Indian companies. from the government as well. In fact
Prof B B Bhattacharya, economist there should be a proper coordination
and former VC, JNU, explains the between the fiscal policy initiatives and
probable impact of high inflation on the monitory policy. Only then can
Indian companies by saying, “The inflation be tamed in an effective way,”
current phase of inflation is quite dis- Prof Bhattacharya opines.
turbing and in the long run it will also This move has decisively tilted the
impact the sales of the companies.” RBI policy towards curbing inflation,
Therefore, it becomes very important signalling that growth can take the
to control inflation and the recent hike backseat for a while. The current infla-
in interest rates by the RBI is a step in tionary situation is way above the
the same direction. “It is true that there central bank’s comfort zone of 5-6 per
is a short-term impact on some of the cent. Higher inflation is not the only
sectors like automobiles and housing factor that is disturbing but it is also its
as borrowing cost would increase for stickiness that is frustrating. Headline
the consumer but overall for every sec- inflation that is measured by the WPI
tor it is very much necessary to curb (wholesale price index) has not come
inflation,” he adds. We believe that down to RBI’s comfort level since

www.DSIJ.in May 23 - June 5, 2011 Dalal Street Investment Journal 69


Cover Story

December 2009 and has stayed above


8 per cent consistently from January
2010 onwards. In fact in the last 56
years it is only nine times that inflation
has remained at such a high level in
double digits. The last time that infla-
tion remained so high was from March
1994 to May 1995.
The current rise in inflation started
from July 2009 (-0.62 per cent) from
when it started to accelerate while the
economy was still recovering from
the significant global slowdown. From
July 2009 it continued to show rising
trends before reaching its recent peak
of 11 per cent in the month of April
2010 (see graph). Thereafter, moderat-
ing for some time, it again accelerated
in the last three months. Inflation for
the month ending March 2011 stood
at 8.98 per cent. There were arguments
that as a higher base effect factors in, alone that is making the RBI’s effort internal as well as external factors as
inflation will moderate from the first less effective. We find that the demand well as demand and supply side con-
quarter of the CY11. Nonetheless, we side pressures are equally playing their straints are fuelling inflationary pres-
are almost five months into CY11 and own part to fuel inflation. As the sures in the Indian economy. All these
there is no trace of inflation coming economy picked up thanks to the fis- factors have warranted such a drastic
down. This is making the situation cal and monetary stimulants, demand step by the RBI to reign in the inflation
even worse. So what are the reasons also started to gather momentum, thus so that in the long term the economy
for the inflationary monster not lying leading to demand side pressures. This can grow at its potential rate.
low?
Supply And Demand
It is commonly believed that it is the
supply side constraint and structural
bottlenecks that lead to a high rate of
inflation every time the economy picks
up. The current situation seems to be
no different. However, if we dissect the
WPI data the reason for such a sharp
increase can be attributed to both
supply as well as demand side factors.
Initially it was the supply side reaction
due to the deficient monsoon of 2009
in most parts of the country, which
led to lower agricultural production
and higher prices. This fact is clearly
reflected in the food inflation that has
remained constantly in double digits
from June 2009 to January 2011. Prior
to that (between FY05-FY09), food can be inferred from the inflation Impact On Economy
inflation largely remained in single figure of manufactured products and
digits. non-food manufactured products that One of the major functions for
Apart from food inflation, fuel and primarily reflect the demand side pres- any central bank is to strike a balance
power saw a significant rise in their sures. between inflation and growth. Rise
prices due to a sudden and steep rise It is up from (-) 0.74 per cent at the of any one can imbalance the other.
in the price of the crude oil due to end of July 2009 to 6.21 per cent for Therefore the current high inflation-
the geo-political risks that came up. the month of March 2011. The above ary situation and consequently higher
However, it is not only the supply side clearly brings out the fact that both interest rates are definitely impact-

70 Dalal Street Investment Journal May 23 - June 5, 2011 www.DSIJ.in


[COVER STORY]

ing the growth of the economy. The


fact is well-captured in the observa-
tions based on Composite Leading
Indicators (CLIs) developed by the
OECD (Organisation for Economic
Cooperation and Development) on
the basis of parameters like IIP data,
passenger car sales, call money rate, etc
that provide early signals of turning
points with regard to economic expan-
sion and slowdown.
From March 2010, CLI for India
has started showing signs of falling (see
graph) and for the month of March
2011 it was 99.59, down from 99.78
computed in the month of February.

Leading To A Rise In Interest


Rates……
REVERSE REPO REPO RATE
19-Mar-10 3.50 19-Mar-10 5.00
20-Apr-10 3.75 20-Apr-10 5.25
2-Jul-10 4.00 2-Jul-10 5.50
27-Jul-10 4.50 27-Jul-10 5.75
16-Sep-10 5.00 16-Sep-10 6.00
2-Nov-10 5.25 2-Nov-10 6.25
25-Jan-11 5.50 25-Jan-11 6.50
17-Mar-11 5.75 17-Mar-11 6.75
3-May-11 6.25 3-May-11 7.25

The way this figure is interpreted is thus expect a further hike in interest of pressure.
that if CLI is decreasing and is below rates in the months of June and July.
100 it connotes a slowdown in the This will ultimately impact the busi- Impact On Sectors
economic activity which is the case ness growth which is already struggling Needless to say that interest rate-
with India. CLI for India has been from higher commodity prices. Here is sensitive sectors and companies with
below 100 since January 2011 and a check on the sectors and companies a larger debt to equity ratio will be
is decreasing month on month. The that are likely to face a higher level most affected by the rising interest
fact that the economy is decelerating
is further reiterated by the recent ‘on
the record’ acceptance by the finance
minister that the Indian economy will
expand at a rate of 8 per cent for the
year FY12, lower than what he had
projected in his last budget speech of
February 2011.
Therefore, it is quite clear that ris-
ing inflation and interest rate is weigh-
ing heavy on the economic growth
rate. But the worse news is that despite
raising rates by nine times since March
2010, the interest rates have not
peaked out. According to S Raman,
CMD, Canara Bank, “Going forward
there will be a rate hike in the range of
50-75 bps depending upon how the
current increase in interest rates affects
the macro-economic factors.” One can

www.DSIJ.in May 23 - June 5, 2011 Dalal Street Investment Journal 71


Market Moves
UK
-1.01% (-0.79)
TAIWAN
GERMANY -0.21% (-0.27)
-0.39% (6.84)
JAPAN
-3.27%
(-7.22)
US
-1.38% (8.38)

CHINA S KOREA
-0.20% -2.29%
(3.25) (2.75)
HONG KONG
INDIA -1.15% (-0.32)
-1.88% (-11.56)

SINGAPORE
BRAZIL 0.73%
-1.22% (-8.87) (-2.36)

Figures represent performance of indices during the fortnight. Figures in brackets represent YTD performance of indices

Sober Markets
The markets are taking longer than expected to recover from the effect of the
RBIs recent rate hike. Investors should better wait and watch, allowing the
markets to stabilize says Amit Bhanot

I
t seems that the markets are tak- touched a peak of 5605 points on May remained indifferent and purchased
ing a longer than expected time to 13 but then derailed from its course few stocks for their kitty worth `741
recover from the shock given by the and fell to 5421 points on May 17. crore. The net combined turnover of
RBI by hiking interest rates yet again. It closed at 5438 points on the same the BSE and the NSE hovered between
Soon after the rate hike announce- day, shedding 92 points during the `10500 crore and `15098 crore.
ment during the last fortnight, the fortnight. Individually Ranbaxy gained 17.51
markets started tumbling and contin- Globally the subdued environ- per cent followed by Hindustan Liver,
ued to do so this fortnight too as ment was quite visible among the HDIL, United Brew., and Mundra
economists are predicting a slowing in markets with almost all indices barring port that gained 15.56 per cent, 14.20
the growth momentum. At the same Singapore’s STI falling like a bullet hit per cent, 12.59 per cent and 11.75 per
time the Inflation monster is far from war plane. The US Dow lost 1.38 per cent respectively. On the other hand
being tamed, adding to the woes of cent in the fortnight but the biggest Manarpuram Finance was the biggest
the market. loser was Japan’s Nikkei with a 3.27 loser with a 13.10 per cent decline fol-
The BSE Sensex opened at 18484 per cent decline followed by Seoul lowed by SKS Microfinance, Piramal
points on May 5 and gained some Composite, Brazil’s Bovespa, Hong Healthcare, Renuka Sugar and ONGC
ground on the positive news of a Kong’s Hang Seng, UK’s FTSE and which declined by 12.05 per cent,
better showing by Indian Inc. and the German Dax which declined by 11.66 per cent, 10.80 per cent and
touched the highest level of the fort- 2.29 per cent, 1.22 per cent, 1.15 per 10.20 per cent respectively. Looking
night at 18724 points on May 13. cent, 1.01 per cent and 0.39 per cent at the current markets it is advisable
But it remained in a confused state respectively. It seems that FIIs are also for the investors to just follow the
throughout the fortnight and touched very concerned about the inflation sce- wait and watch policy and let the dust
a bottom of 18084 points before clos- nario and rate hike and are in a mood settle. Also it would be a good oppor-
ing at 18137 points on May 17, losing to just wait and watch. In the last fort- tunity to buy at sharp declines for intra
347 points during the fortnight. night they were net sellers to the tune day trading. DS

On the other hand the NSE Nifty of a whopping `4968 crore. On the (Wish to comment on this report? Send your
opened at 5531 points on May 5 and other hand Indian Mutual funds also feedback to amitb@dsij.in)

78 Dalal Street Investment Journal May 23 - June 5, 2011 www.DSIJ.in


www.DSIJ.in May 23 - June 5, 2011 Dalal Street Investment Journal 85
Extremism is bad! And this applies to avi Naik, a retired manager of a small compa-

R
ny, earned a decent salary during his working
your financial habits as well. It has been days. He always believed that a saving account
observed that in many cases, money just was the best option available for him as it did
not contain any risk whatsoever. Therefore he
lies idle in savings bank accounts for kept all that he saved after meeting his expenses in his saving
a sheer lack of interest in making the account. By the time he retired, Naik’s savings grew, but only
marginally thanks to the low interest rate that a savings bank
earnings work further. While for some, account earns. Another flip side of a low interest earning was
liquidity and cash at hand is hardly a that inflationary trends ate into the growth, thereby making
concern. How much of money should it useless by the time Naik needed the money. As a result,
today he is struggling to meet ends and working part-time
one ideally keep handy so that immediate to be able to do so.
liquidity problems can be addressed well? Now look at the case of Satish Dixit, a regional manager
with an MNC. Dixit knows the financial markets pretty well
Vishesh Sharma tries to answer this very and has been parking his funds in the market right from the
important question for readers and helps days of his first job. His saving account does not hold any
significance for him and he maintains only the minimum
them strike a balance between liquidity required balance in the account. The rest of the money goes
and investment planning into equity markets, mutual funds, insurance and other

86 Dalal Street Investment Journal May 23 - June 5, 2011 www.DSIJ.in


Increase Your Saving
Savings are simply calculated as income
minus expenses. Income constitutes your take-
home salary whilst expenses consist of both the
monthly variety and some that are annual or
semi-annual or just infrequent. Your monthly
expenses would commonly consist of items such
as groceries, salaries to domestic help, fuel and
transport, telephone bills, electricity bills, water
bills, maintenance bills, rentals, cable TV, credit
card payments, laundry, EMIs, etc. Those that
may happen once a year or twice a year are
items such as school fees and insurance premi-
ums which must be apportioned into monthly
figures. If the expense is annual then divide
investment options. One night his pregnant wife fell ill and by 12 to arrive at a monthly figure. Infrequent
was required to be admitted to the hospital. Doctors advised expenses would be things like medical bills,
that a surgery is required and he was asked to deposit a sum
of Rs 50,000 in the hospital. Dixit did not know what to vacation expenses, car repairs, etc. which should
do as he had no liquid cash on hand or his saving account. also be apportioned on a monthly basis.
Arranging money at that hour was a tough task and he could It is best to put this in a tabular form and moni-
manage it only with the help of his friend who lent him
money from his savings bank account. tor on a regular basis. The idea of doing this is to
These are two extreme cases. One was flush with liquidity be aware of your savings and expenditure. After
but was not earning enough to be able to build a reasonable
corpus for himself at the end of his productive life span. The
a few months of doing this exercise, one must be
other was overly conscious about making his earnings work able to think up ways to reduce expenditure and
hard for him but only at the cost of his immediate liquidity. increase savings. If the expenses are classified
None of these is an ideal situation. If you really want to have
a safe and secure future, you must strike a balance between properly, you would be able to spot your larg-
your savings and liquidity on one hand and your investments est categories of expenditure. This awareness is
on the other. So, is there an optimum benchmark of what important for a solution. There are a number of
needs to be kept handy in a savings account or even in cash
and what needs to be invested so that a reasonable corpus can online tools that help to record and monitor per-
be built over a period of years by earning a decent return? sonal expenditure such as www.perfios.com.

www.DSIJ.in May 23 - June 5, 2011 Dalal Street Investment Journal 87


The free

ends here ...


TO SUBSCRIBE NOW
SMS DSIJ to 56767
Or Call 020 40197200
Or Email Enquiry@DSIJ.in

To Receive DSIJ issue every fortnight, Log on to

Valuable accurate recommendation to amass more profits


Personal and other Finance recommendations
Periodic review of our recomendations
Listing of 1500 co’s in Databank
Interviews and expert opining with the icing being the
CEO interview and so much more.....
Read online issue 2 days before it hits stand
Access to Archives

You might also like