Transition Matrix (T):

First Month Next Month

P N
0.
P 6 0.4
0.
N 2 0.8

M3 = M2*T

M6 = M5*T

[Pp(3) Np(3)] = [Pp(2) Np(2)]*T

[Pp(4) Np(4)] = [Pp(3) Np(3)]*T

………

[Pp(i + 1) Np(i + 1)] = [Pp(i) Np(i)]*T

Steady state is time independent

At steady state,

[Pp Np] = [Pp Np]*T

[Pp Np] = [Pp Np]*[0.6 0.4

0.2 0.8]

[Pp Np] = [0.6Pp+0.2Np 0.4Pp+0.58Np]

Pp = 0.6Pp+0.2Np === 0.4Pp – 0.2Np = 0---------(1)

Np = 0.4Pp+0.8Np=== 0.4Pp – 0.2Np = 0----------(2)

Pp + Np = 1---------(3)

Elimination Method

Substitution Method

Comparison Method

Pp = ?, Np = ? (Steady state probabilities)

Q 15: Module of Markov Analysis pdf

Its an example of 3*3 system. Above matrix is transition matrix (T)

You can find the probabilities of moving from one Spring to next Spring by applying the same concept as
we discussed in class.

S (i + 1) = S(i) * T

Like: Current Spring: S(1)

Plant Plus Crop Extra Gro-Fast

Plant Plus 1 0 1

Crop Extra 0 1 0

Gro-Fast 0 0 1

Spring 2: S(2) = S(1)*T, so answer is (see the attached excel sheet)

Next Spring 2: S(2)

Current Spring Plant Plus Crop Extra Gro-Fast

Plant Plus 0.4 0.3 0.3

Crop Extra 0.5 0.1 0.4

Gro-Fast 0.4 0.2 0.4