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Financial Mathematics

ACTL2111/5102 Financial Mathematics

Eric Cheung

UNSW Sydney
Risk and Actuarial Studies, UNSW Business School

Module 1: Time Value of Money and Valuation of Cash Flows

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Financial Mathematics

Plan

Module 1: Time Value of Money and Valuation of Cash Flows


Cash Flow Models
A Mathematical Model of Interest
Simple and Compound Interest
Discount Interest
Nominal Interest
Force of Interest
Real and Money Interest
Relation between Cash Flow, Interest and Present Value
Annuities: Introduction
Term Annuities
Non-Level Annuities

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Financial Mathematics
Module 1: Time Value of Money and Valuation of Cash Flows
Cash Flow Models

Plan

Module 1: Time Value of Money and Valuation of Cash Flows


Cash Flow Models
A Mathematical Model of Interest
Simple and Compound Interest
Discount Interest
Nominal Interest
Force of Interest
Real and Money Interest
Relation between Cash Flow, Interest and Present Value
Annuities: Introduction
Term Annuities
Non-Level Annuities

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Financial Mathematics
Module 1: Time Value of Money and Valuation of Cash Flows
Cash Flow Models

Cash flow models

A cash flow is a series of payments (inflows or outflows) over a


period of time.
A mathematical projection of the payments involved in a financial
transaction is referred to as a cash flow model.

Cash flows are characterised by their:


I nature: inflow or outflow
I amount
I timing
I probability (if contingent)

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Financial Mathematics
Module 1: Time Value of Money and Valuation of Cash Flows
Cash Flow Models

Comparing cash flows


We want to compare different sets of cash flows:
I why?
I compare 2 securities or investments
I compare scenario for a given product (product development,
profit testing, solvency)
I compare potential new products (product development)
I etc. . .
I how?

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Financial Mathematics
Module 1: Time Value of Money and Valuation of Cash Flows
Cash Flow Models

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Financial Mathematics
Module 1: Time Value of Money and Valuation of Cash Flows
Cash Flow Models

Procedure:
I make the cash flow clear; draw a time diagram
I choose any point in time
I now: present value, sometimes NPV (Net Present Value)
I in the future: accumulated value
I in the middle...
I should be convenient: all are equivalent!
I ”bring back or forth” all cash flows to the point of time you
have chosen
I add them up
I compare!

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Financial Mathematics
Module 1: Time Value of Money and Valuation of Cash Flows
Cash Flow Models

You want to buy a television from Bling Bee’s on 31/12/2009 that


is worth $3000. The super mega deal (yeahh) is that you can take
the television now and need only to pay $1000 on 31/12/2011 and
$2000 on 31/12/2012. Their advertisement campaign is ”No
interest, no deposit until 2011!”.
But you are smart (of course, you are an actuary), and you know
that if Bling Bee invests $1000 now, this investment will be worth
$1100 in one year, $1210 in two years and $1331 in three years.
Taking this information into account, what discount can you
reasonably get from Bling Bee?

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Financial Mathematics
Module 1: Time Value of Money and Valuation of Cash Flows
A Mathematical Model of Interest

Plan

Module 1: Time Value of Money and Valuation of Cash Flows


Cash Flow Models
A Mathematical Model of Interest
Simple and Compound Interest
Discount Interest
Nominal Interest
Force of Interest
Real and Money Interest
Relation between Cash Flow, Interest and Present Value
Annuities: Introduction
Term Annuities
Non-Level Annuities

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Financial Mathematics
Module 1: Time Value of Money and Valuation of Cash Flows
A Mathematical Model of Interest

Time value of money

How much would you pay to buy a security that is guaranteed to


give you $100 in 1 year’s time?

What if there was a chance of default?

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Financial Mathematics
Module 1: Time Value of Money and Valuation of Cash Flows
A Mathematical Model of Interest

Time is money!

Interest is a mathematical tool to embody


I the time preference of agents in the economy
usually, agents are impatient (interest is positive)
I risk (interest is raised to include a risk premium)

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Financial Mathematics
Module 1: Time Value of Money and Valuation of Cash Flows
A Mathematical Model of Interest

Mathematical model
Consider an amount of money invested for a period of time.
I A(0): principal = the amount of money initially invested
I t: the length of time for which the amount has been invested
I A(t): amount function or accumulated amount function
I this is the accumulated amount of money at time t
corresponding to A(0)
Assuming these are two equivalent cash flows at two different
point in time, how can we link them using interest?

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Financial Mathematics
Module 1: Time Value of Money and Valuation of Cash Flows
A Mathematical Model of Interest

Accumulation function
Let a(t) be the accumulation function:
I a(t) the accumulated value at time t of an original investment
of 1 made at time 0
I it is a scaled version of A(t) with a(0) = 1 and can thus be
studied independently of the amounts that are invested
I it represents the way in which money accumulates with the
passage of time
We have
A(t + k) a(t + k)
= ,
A(t) a(t)
which means
a(t + k)
A(t + k) = A(t) .
a(t)
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Financial Mathematics
Module 1: Time Value of Money and Valuation of Cash Flows
A Mathematical Model of Interest

Effective Interest

In mathematical terms, the effective interest It,k accumulated


between t and t + k (for a period k from time t) is

It,k = A(t + k) − A(t),

and then the effective rate of interest it,k for this same period is

A(t + k) − A(t) a(t + k) − a(t)


it,k = = . (1.1)
A(t) a(t)

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Financial Mathematics
Module 1: Time Value of Money and Valuation of Cash Flows
A Mathematical Model of Interest

Homogeneity in time

When the effective rate of interest is the same for all t, then we
have
a(t + k) a(k)
= = a(k)
a(t) a(0)

⇐⇒ A(t + k) = A(t)a(k)
and moreover

a(t + k) − a(t)
it,k = = a(k) − 1.
a(t)

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Financial Mathematics
Module 1: Time Value of Money and Valuation of Cash Flows
A Mathematical Model of Interest

Forms of interest

I a(t) is modeled with the help of interest


I effective rate of interest is always defined as in (1.1)
I however, interest can be expressed in many different ways,
depending on the situation (mainly conventions)
I each way has a different set of assumption
I each definition may lead to different forms for a(t)

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Financial Mathematics
Module 1: Time Value of Money and Valuation of Cash Flows
A Mathematical Model of Interest

Assumptions about interest


1. how much interest is paid?
I usually expressed as a percentage per year (‘per annum’, ‘p.a.’)
I amount can depends on the time period (inhomogeneity)
→ term structure of interest, see module 4
→ non-constant force of interest
I amount is sometimes stochastic
→ deterministic vs stochastic interest, see module 6
2. how often is interest paid?
I as a rule, once per ‘compounding period’, whose number per
time unit needs to be determined (usually once a year)
I → simple vs compound interest (time horizon)
I → nominal vs effective interest (several times a year)
I → force of interest (continuously)
3. when is interest paid?
I at the beginning or end of the compounding period
I → discount interest (beginning)
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Financial Mathematics
Module 1: Time Value of Money and Valuation of Cash Flows
Simple and Compound Interest

Plan

Module 1: Time Value of Money and Valuation of Cash Flows


Cash Flow Models
A Mathematical Model of Interest
Simple and Compound Interest
Discount Interest
Nominal Interest
Force of Interest
Real and Money Interest
Relation between Cash Flow, Interest and Present Value
Annuities: Introduction
Term Annuities
Non-Level Annuities

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Financial Mathematics
Module 1: Time Value of Money and Valuation of Cash Flows
Simple and Compound Interest

Assumptions about interest


1. how much interest is paid?
I usually expressed as a percentage per year (‘per annum’, ‘p.a.’)
I amount can depends on the time period (inhomogeneity)
→ term structure of interest, see module 4
→ non-constant force of interest
I amount is sometimes stochastic
→ deterministic vs stochastic interest, see module 6
2. how often is interest paid?
I as a rule, once per ‘compounding period’, whose number per
time unit needs to be determined (usually once a year)
I → simple vs compound interest (time horizon)
I → nominal vs effective interest (several times a year)
I → force of interest (continuously)
3. when is interest paid?
I at the beginning or end of the compounding period
I → discount interest (beginning)
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Financial Mathematics
Module 1: Time Value of Money and Valuation of Cash Flows
Simple and Compound Interest

Simple and Compound Interest


Example: Assume John deposits $1000 on his bank account on
01/01/2010 at an effective rate of interest of 5% p.a. At the
following dates:
1. what is the balance of his account?
2. how much would he get if he closed his account?
3. how much interest has he earned?
4. how much interest has been credited on the account?
I 30/06/2010

I 01/01/2011

I 30/06/2011

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Financial Mathematics
Module 1: Time Value of Money and Valuation of Cash Flows
Simple and Compound Interest

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Financial Mathematics
Module 1: Time Value of Money and Valuation of Cash Flows
Simple and Compound Interest

Simple and Compound Interest


Main difference:
I with simple interest: no interest is ever earned on
interest—interest is not compounded
I with compound interest: interest is continuously earned on
interest—interest is compounded
When to use one or the other?
I What happens within a year (compounding period) is usually
simple interest (short term securities, T-bills, . . . )
I However, simple interest is not homogeneous in time
I For cash flows spanning over periods of more than
a year, compound interest is generally used (easier..!)

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Financial Mathematics
Module 1: Time Value of Money and Valuation of Cash Flows
Simple and Compound Interest

Simple Interest
Accumulation function: for simple interest i,

a(t) = 1 + it,

and the accumulated amount function after a period t is given by

A(t) = A(0) · a(t) = A(0) · (1 + it).

Usually, t < 1 (days/360 or 365, or months/12).

Effective rate of interest is not constant in this case (decreasing):

a(t + k) = 1 + i(t + k) 6= (1 + it)(1 + ik) = a(t)a(k)

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Financial Mathematics
Module 1: Time Value of Money and Valuation of Cash Flows
Simple and Compound Interest

Numerical Example
A Bank accepts deposits for terms up to 3 years and pays interest
on maturity. How much interest would it pay on a deposit of
$20,000 for a term of 1 year and 33 days if the interest rate is 5%
p.a. simple?

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Financial Mathematics
Module 1: Time Value of Money and Valuation of Cash Flows
Simple and Compound Interest

Compound Interest
Accumulation function: for compound interest i,

a(t) = (1 + i)t ,

and the accumulated amount function after a period t is given by

A(t) = A(0) · a(t) = A(0) · (1 + i)t .

In this case, effective interest is homogeneous:

a(t + k) = (1 + i)t+k = (1 + i)t (1 + i)k = a(t)a(k)

or alternatively

a(t + k)
= (1 + i)k = a(k), t, k ≥ 0.
a(t)
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Financial Mathematics
Module 1: Time Value of Money and Valuation of Cash Flows
Simple and Compound Interest

Numerical Example
A Bank accepts deposits for terms up to 3 years and pays interest
on maturity. How much interest would it pay on a deposit of
$20,000 for a term of 1 year and 33 days if the interest rate is 5%
p.a. effective?

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Financial Mathematics
Module 1: Time Value of Money and Valuation of Cash Flows
Simple and Compound Interest

General questions
1. What happens to the accumulation if i ↑? i ↓?
2. What is the amount of interest earned during each unit period
under compound interest? simple interest?
3. What is the effective rate of interest during each unit period
under compound interest? simple interest?

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Financial Mathematics
Module 1: Time Value of Money and Valuation of Cash Flows
Discount Interest

Plan

Module 1: Time Value of Money and Valuation of Cash Flows


Cash Flow Models
A Mathematical Model of Interest
Simple and Compound Interest
Discount Interest
Nominal Interest
Force of Interest
Real and Money Interest
Relation between Cash Flow, Interest and Present Value
Annuities: Introduction
Term Annuities
Non-Level Annuities

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Financial Mathematics
Module 1: Time Value of Money and Valuation of Cash Flows
Discount Interest

Assumptions about interest


1. how much interest is paid?
I usually expressed as a percentage per year (‘per annum’, ‘p.a.’)
I amount can depends on the time period (inhomogeneity)
→ term structure of interest, see module 4
→ non-constant force of interest
I amount is sometimes stochastic
→ deterministic vs stochastic interest, see module 6
2. how often is interest paid?
I as a rule, once per ‘compounding period’, whose number per
time unit needs to be determined (usually once a year)
I → simple vs compound interest (time horizon)
I → nominal vs effective interest (several times a year)
I → force of interest (continuously)
3. when is interest paid?
I at the beginning or end of the compounding period
I → discount interest (beginning)
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Financial Mathematics
Module 1: Time Value of Money and Valuation of Cash Flows
Discount Interest

Rate of Discount
The rate of interest i applies to the principal now, for interest
calculated at t = 1, whereas the rate of discount d applies to the
principal at the end of the period, for interest calculated at t = 0.
In other words, for i:
I we focus on the principal now
I we correct this figure by adding interest at the end of the
period
and for d:
I we focus on the principal at the end of the period
I we correct this figure by subtracting interest now
Both methods are equivalent, and use of one or the other is
dictated by the situation for convenience.
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Financial Mathematics
Module 1: Time Value of Money and Valuation of Cash Flows
Discount Interest

a(1) − a(0)
Remember: i =
a(0)
A(1) − A(0)
= =⇒ a(1) = 1 + i
A(0)
a(1) − a(0)
Now: d =
a(1)
A(1) − A(0) 1
= =⇒ a(1) =
A(1) 1−d

Since we want d and i to be equivalent (they are just formulated


differently), we have
1
1+i = .
1−d

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Financial Mathematics
Module 1: Time Value of Money and Valuation of Cash Flows
Discount Interest

Simple vs compound discount interest

For simple discount:


1
a(t) =
1 − dt
and for compound discount:
 t
1
a(t) =
1−d

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Financial Mathematics
Module 1: Time Value of Money and Valuation of Cash Flows
Discount Interest

Numerical Example
In the US Treasury Bills are quoted using ‘simple discount’ on the
basis of a 360 day year.
Consider a US T-Bill with a face value of 500,000 and maturity in
180 days time. Suppose that this is sold to yield 6% p.a (simple
discount). What are the proceeds of the sale?

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Financial Mathematics
Module 1: Time Value of Money and Valuation of Cash Flows
Discount Interest

Relations between Interest and Discount

i is the effective rate of interest, d is the effective rate of discount


and v = 1/a(1) is the discount factor.
Show these are correct as an exercise and use financial reasoning.

d
i =
1−d
i
d =
1+i
d = iv
d = 1−v
i −d = id

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Financial Mathematics
Module 1: Time Value of Money and Valuation of Cash Flows
Discount Interest

Intuition behind d = 1 − v ?

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Financial Mathematics
Module 1: Time Value of Money and Valuation of Cash Flows
Discount Interest

Intuition behind i − d = id?

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Financial Mathematics
Module 1: Time Value of Money and Valuation of Cash Flows
Nominal Interest

Plan

Module 1: Time Value of Money and Valuation of Cash Flows


Cash Flow Models
A Mathematical Model of Interest
Simple and Compound Interest
Discount Interest
Nominal Interest
Force of Interest
Real and Money Interest
Relation between Cash Flow, Interest and Present Value
Annuities: Introduction
Term Annuities
Non-Level Annuities

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Financial Mathematics
Module 1: Time Value of Money and Valuation of Cash Flows
Nominal Interest

Assumptions about interest


1. how much interest is paid?
I usually expressed as a percentage per year (‘per annum’, ‘p.a.’)
I amount can depends on the time period (inhomogeneity)
→ term structure of interest, see module 4
→ non-constant force of interest
I amount is sometimes stochastic
→ deterministic vs stochastic interest, see module 6
2. how often is interest paid?
I as a rule, once per ‘compounding period’, whose number per
time unit needs to be determined (usually once a year)
I → simple vs compound interest (time horizon)
I → nominal vs effective interest (several times a year)
I → force of interest (continuously)
3. when is interest paid?
I at the beginning or end of the compounding period
I → discount interest (beginning)
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Financial Mathematics
Module 1: Time Value of Money and Valuation of Cash Flows
Nominal Interest

Nominal Interest Rate

I usually the compounding period is one year


I nominal interest rates are interest rates
I that are still expressed as % p.a.
I but that have several (m) compounding periods per year
I Example of securities for which nominal rates are relevant:
I Some bonds pay interest yearly, some semi-annually and some
quarterly
I Home loans usually charge interest monthly
I Some bank accounts pay interest daily
I Notation: i (m) = nominal interest rate payable mthly

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Financial Mathematics
Module 1: Time Value of Money and Valuation of Cash Flows
Nominal Interest

Nominal vs effective rates


With nominal interest rates, the rate

i (m)
m
is an effective rate of interest for a period of 1/m years.
Reminder:
I the effective rate of interest for a period is the ratio between
1. the actual amount of interest earned and
2. the principal at the beginning of the period (for interest) or at
the end of the period (for discount).
I i (m) (for m > 1) is not an effective rate of interest
I i is the effective rate of interest for a year, equivalent to i (m)

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Financial Mathematics
Module 1: Time Value of Money and Valuation of Cash Flows
Nominal Interest

Relationship to i, the effective interest rate

In general, for rate i per annum


!m
i (m)
(1 + i) = 1+
m
h i
i (m) = m (1 + i)1/m − 1

<
i (m) >i ??
Can you use your financial reasoning to convince yourself which is
correct?

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Financial Mathematics
Module 1: Time Value of Money and Valuation of Cash Flows
Nominal Interest

Numerical Example
A product offers interest at 8% p.a., payable quarterly. What is the
effective annual rate of interest implied?

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Financial Mathematics
Module 1: Time Value of Money and Valuation of Cash Flows
Nominal Interest

Nominal Discount Rates

I Interest is converted m times per year (period)


I Notation: d (m) = nominal discount rate converted mthly
I Relationship to d the effective rate of discount
!m
1 d (m)
=1−d = 1−
a(1) m

I Note that the nominal discount rate increases as the


frequency of conversion increases.

d < d (2) < d (3) . . .

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Financial Mathematics
Module 1: Time Value of Money and Valuation of Cash Flows
Nominal Interest

Exercise
1
Show that d (m) = i (m) vi m

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Financial Mathematics
Module 1: Time Value of Money and Valuation of Cash Flows
Nominal Interest

Numerical Example
Find the accumulated amount of $100 invested for 15 years if
i (4) = .08 for the first 5 years, d = .07 for the second 5 years and
d (2) = .06 for the last 5 years.

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Financial Mathematics
Module 1: Time Value of Money and Valuation of Cash Flows
Force of Interest

Plan

Module 1: Time Value of Money and Valuation of Cash Flows


Cash Flow Models
A Mathematical Model of Interest
Simple and Compound Interest
Discount Interest
Nominal Interest
Force of Interest
Real and Money Interest
Relation between Cash Flow, Interest and Present Value
Annuities: Introduction
Term Annuities
Non-Level Annuities

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Financial Mathematics
Module 1: Time Value of Money and Valuation of Cash Flows
Force of Interest

Assumptions about interest


1. how much interest is paid?
I usually expressed as a percentage per year (‘per annum’, ‘p.a.’)
I amount can depends on the time period (inhomogeneity)
→ term structure of interest, see module 4
→ non-constant force of interest
I amount is sometimes stochastic
→ deterministic vs stochastic interest, see module 6
2. how often is interest paid?
I as a rule, once per ‘compounding period’, whose number per
time unit needs to be determined (usually once a year)
I → simple vs compound interest (time horizon)
I → nominal vs effective interest (several times a year)
I → force of interest (continuously)
3. when is interest paid?
I at the beginning or end of the compounding period
I → discount interest (beginning)
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Financial Mathematics
Module 1: Time Value of Money and Valuation of Cash Flows
Force of Interest

Force of Interest
Consider
!m
i (m)
lim 1+
m→∞ m
 !2 
i (m) m (m − 1) i (m)
= lim 1 + m · + + ...
m→∞ m 2! m
2 3
(∞) i (∞) i (∞)
= 1+i + + + ...
2! 3!
i (∞) δ
= e or e ,

where δ is called the force of interest, or continuously


compounding rate of interest.
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Financial Mathematics
Module 1: Time Value of Money and Valuation of Cash Flows
Force of Interest

Force of Discount

Similarly, consider
!m
d (m)
lim 1−
m→∞ m
 !2 
d (m) m (m − 1) d (m)
= lim 1 − m · + − ...
m→∞ m 2! m
2 3
(∞) d (∞) d (∞)
= 1−d + − + ...
2! 3!
(∞)
= e −d ,

where d (∞) is the force of discount.


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Financial Mathematics
Module 1: Time Value of Money and Valuation of Cash Flows
Force of Interest

We have
(∞) (∞)
1 − d = e −d and 1 + i = e i .
Now
1
1−d =v = .
1+i
Thus,
i (∞) = d (∞) ≡ δ
and, in general,

d < . . . < d (m) < . . . < d (∞) = δ = i (∞) < . . . < i (m) < . . . < i.

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Financial Mathematics
Module 1: Time Value of Money and Valuation of Cash Flows
Force of Interest

Force of interest that varies with time

Let
I A(0) be the principal invested at time 0
I interest be paid continuously at a rate δ (t) at time t
We seek an expression for A(t).

Interest paid over a small interval ∆t is

A(t + ∆t) − A(t) ≈ A(t)δ(t)∆t

and thus
A(t + 4t) − A(t)
δ(t) ≈ .
A(t)4t

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Financial Mathematics
Module 1: Time Value of Money and Valuation of Cash Flows
Force of Interest

Taking the limit, as 4t → 0,

A(t + 4t) − A(t)


δ(t) = lim
4t→0 A(t) · 4t
1 d
= · A(t)
A(t) dt
A0 (t)
=
A(t)
d
= ln A(t).
dt

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Financial Mathematics
Module 1: Time Value of Money and Valuation of Cash Flows
Force of Interest

Integrating both sides over [0, t],

Zt
δ(s)ds = ln A(s)|t0
s=0
= ln A(t) − ln A(0)
A(t)
= ln .
A(0)

Thus we have Z t 
A(t) = A(0) exp δ(s)ds
0
and Z t 
a(t) = exp δ(s)ds .
0

Note that interest is homogeneous iif δ(t) ≡ δ, t ≥ 0.


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Financial Mathematics
Module 1: Time Value of Money and Valuation of Cash Flows
Force of Interest

Numerical Example
Force of interest at time 0 is 0.04, and increases uniformly to 0.06
after 5 years. Find the amount after 5 years of an investment of $1.

For affine δ (t), the integral in exponential can be simplified:

a(t + k) k
= e 2 [δ(t)+δ(t+k)]
a(t)
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Financial Mathematics
Module 1: Time Value of Money and Valuation of Cash Flows
Real and Money Interest

Plan

Module 1: Time Value of Money and Valuation of Cash Flows


Cash Flow Models
A Mathematical Model of Interest
Simple and Compound Interest
Discount Interest
Nominal Interest
Force of Interest
Real and Money Interest
Relation between Cash Flow, Interest and Present Value
Annuities: Introduction
Term Annuities
Non-Level Annuities

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Financial Mathematics
Module 1: Time Value of Money and Valuation of Cash Flows
Real and Money Interest

Inflation
When comparing cash flows, time has to be accounted for
1. because of the time preference of agents in the economy (risk
free interest)
2. because there is a risk of default (risk premium)
3. because the value of money changes over time:
inflation/deflation
Inflation:
I Inflation (deflation) is characterized by rising (falling) prices,
or by falling (rising) value of money.
I A common way of measuring inflation is the change in
Consumer Price Index (CPI) which itself measures the annual
rate of change in a specified ”basket” of consumer items.

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Financial Mathematics
Module 1: Time Value of Money and Valuation of Cash Flows
Real and Money Interest

Notation

Let
I i p.a. be the money interest rate
I r p.a. be the real interest rate
I p(t) be the price index (with p(0) = 1)
I π p.a. be the inflation rate
What relationships can be established among i, r , p(t) and π?

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Financial Mathematics
Module 1: Time Value of Money and Valuation of Cash Flows
Real and Money Interest

Main relations
We have
a(0) = 1 and a(1) = 1 + i.
and
p(0) = 1 and p(1) = 1 + π
Thus, the value of accumulation at today’s prices at time 1 is
given by
a(1) 1+i
= .
p(1) 1+π
Now, define
1+i i −π
1+r = ⇐⇒ r = .
1+π 1+π
Caution: this holds only for effective rates!
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Financial Mathematics
Module 1: Time Value of Money and Valuation of Cash Flows
Real and Money Interest

How to deal with inflation


Inflation is introduced in calculations either by
1. considering the cash flow at its date’s $ (nominal value) and
use ‘money’ interest rates:
 t
1
A(0) = A(t) ·
1+i

2. or adapting the amounts of cash flows to today’s dollars (real


value) and use a (modified) ‘real’ interest rate:
 t
A(t) 1
A(0) = ·
(1 + π)t 1+r

Both methods are equivalent.


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Financial Mathematics
Module 1: Time Value of Money and Valuation of Cash Flows
Real and Money Interest

Example

An investor will receive an asset in 10 years time with face value


$100,000. Given a nominal (money) interest rate of 9% p.a.,
quarterly compounding, and an expected inflation rate of 5% p.a.,
(also quarterly compounding), what should you pay now:
Asset 1 if the payment on the asset will not change, failing to increase
in line with inflation
Asset 2 if the asset maintains its real value (an inflation indexed bond)

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Financial Mathematics
Module 1: Time Value of Money and Valuation of Cash Flows
Real and Money Interest

To determine the price, we must be consistent. Either we work


with
I Method 1: the nominal value, and discount with the money
interest rate, or
I Method 2: the real value, and discount with the real interest
rate.
The effective real quarterly rate is

.09/4 − .05/4
= 0.9876543%
1 + .05/4

Thus, r (4) = 3.9506% and r = 4.0095%.

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Financial Mathematics
Module 1: Time Value of Money and Valuation of Cash Flows
Real and Money Interest

Asset 1

Method 1:
100, 000
PV = 40
1 + .09
4
= 41, 064.58

Method 2:
100, 000
Real value = 40 = 60, 841.33
1 + .05
4
60, 841.33
PV = = 41, 064.57
(1.00987654)40

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Financial Mathematics
Module 1: Time Value of Money and Valuation of Cash Flows
Real and Money Interest

Asset 2

Method 1:
40
100, 000 1 + .05
4
PV =
.09 40

1+ 4
= 67, 494.53

Method 2:
100, 000
PV =
(1.00987654)40
= 67, 494.54

56/87
Financial Mathematics
Module 1: Time Value of Money and Valuation of Cash Flows
Relation between Cash Flow, Interest and Present Value

Plan

Module 1: Time Value of Money and Valuation of Cash Flows


Cash Flow Models
A Mathematical Model of Interest
Simple and Compound Interest
Discount Interest
Nominal Interest
Force of Interest
Real and Money Interest
Relation between Cash Flow, Interest and Present Value
Annuities: Introduction
Term Annuities
Non-Level Annuities

57/87
Financial Mathematics
Module 1: Time Value of Money and Valuation of Cash Flows
Relation between Cash Flow, Interest and Present Value

Our fundamental problem

Three inter-related (sets) of values:


I a set of cash flows (inflows and outflows, timing, probability)
I interest and its assumptions
I a present value / accumulated value
(for a security: the price / value at maturity)
Learning outcome:
Understand the relation between a present value, a set of
cash flows and interest, be able to determine one in
function of the others in a variety of situations, as well as
understand the interest rate risk (duration, immunisation)

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Financial Mathematics
Module 1: Time Value of Money and Valuation of Cash Flows
Relation between Cash Flow, Interest and Present Value

Practical examples

I Find the price of a security: determine an initial cash flow


such that the NPV is 0, given interest and a set of cash flows
I Find the yield of a security or a project: determine the rate of
interest such that the NPV is 0 (IRR), given a set of cash
flows
I Find the minimum return on the reserves that is necessary to
ensure all current life annuities can be paid until the end,
given the current level of mortality (pensions)
I ...
Note
I If the NPV is 0, we have then an equation of value

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Financial Mathematics
Module 1: Time Value of Money and Valuation of Cash Flows
Relation between Cash Flow, Interest and Present Value

Examples of Common Financial Instruments

I Cash on deposit - term deposits, cash management trusts


I Notes: Treasury notes, promissory notes, bank bills
I Equities - also known as shares, equity shares or common
stock
I Bonds: Coupon Bonds, Zero Coupon Bonds (‘ZCB’),
Government bonds
I Annuities: annuities-certain, life annuities
I Insurance applications: Term life insurance, Endowment
insurance
See Broverman and Sherris for the main definitions and examples.

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Financial Mathematics
Module 1: Time Value of Money and Valuation of Cash Flows
Relation between Cash Flow, Interest and Present Value

Determine a PV in function of cash flows and interest

Recall that the (one-period) discount factor is

1 1 d
v= = =1−d = .
a(1) 1+i i

If interest is homogeneous with time (which is the usual


assumption), then powers of the discount factor can be used to
discount all cash flows. This is because the (time-0) PV of $1
payable at time t is equal to
1 1
= = vt.
a(t) (1 + i)t

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Financial Mathematics
Module 1: Time Value of Money and Valuation of Cash Flows
Relation between Cash Flow, Interest and Present Value

Numerical Examples
Example 1
Consider a Coupon bond which pays $6 at times 1 and 2, and an
additional $100 at time 2. Find the Present Value of this bond at
8% p.a. effective interest.

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Financial Mathematics
Module 1: Time Value of Money and Valuation of Cash Flows
Relation between Cash Flow, Interest and Present Value

Numerical Examples
Example 2
In Australia, Short term Government securities such as Treasury
Notes and Treasury Bonds (less than 6 months to maturity) are
priced using simple interest and a 365 day convention.
Consider a Treasury-note with a face value of 500,000 and
maturity in 180 days time. Suppose that this is sold at a yield
(interest rate) of 6% p.a. What are the proceeds of the sale?

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Financial Mathematics
Module 1: Time Value of Money and Valuation of Cash Flows
Relation between Cash Flow, Interest and Present Value

Determine interest in function of a PV and cash flows

If there are more than 2 cash flows, it is generally impossible to


solve for interest analytically.

In that case, several approaches are possible:


I use a financial calculator
I use a computer (R, Goal Seek in Excel, etc. . . )
I use a numerical method (e.g. Newton-Raphson)
(the method to be used in mid-term exam and final exam)

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Financial Mathematics
Module 1: Time Value of Money and Valuation of Cash Flows
Relation between Cash Flow, Interest and Present Value

Newton-Raphson method (a recursive numerical method)


(see, e.g. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Newton’s method)

f (in ) f (in )
f 0 (in ) ≈ =⇒ in+1 = in − 0
in − in+1 f (in )

1. determine f (i) such that f (i) = 0


2. determine f 0 (i)
3. choose initial value i0
4. perform recursions

64/87
Financial Mathematics
Module 1: Time Value of Money and Valuation of Cash Flows
Relation between Cash Flow, Interest and Present Value

Numerical Example
A Bond pays $100 in 1.5 years. Coupon payments of $5 are
payable times 0.5, 1, and 1.5
1. Find the Price of the Bond if the yield is i (2) = 6%.
2. Suppose the Price of the Bond is 107.14. Find the Yield
implied by this price.

65/87
Financial Mathematics
Module 1: Time Value of Money and Valuation of Cash Flows
Annuities: Introduction

Plan

Module 1: Time Value of Money and Valuation of Cash Flows


Cash Flow Models
A Mathematical Model of Interest
Simple and Compound Interest
Discount Interest
Nominal Interest
Force of Interest
Real and Money Interest
Relation between Cash Flow, Interest and Present Value
Annuities: Introduction
Term Annuities
Non-Level Annuities

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Financial Mathematics
Module 1: Time Value of Money and Valuation of Cash Flows
Annuities: Introduction

Notation

(p)
m| äx:n i

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Financial Mathematics
Module 1: Time Value of Money and Valuation of Cash Flows
Annuities: Introduction

Perpetuity

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Financial Mathematics
Module 1: Time Value of Money and Valuation of Cash Flows
Annuities: Introduction

Numerical example
A foundation has $100,000,000. Instead of spending the entire
amount immediately on charity, it plans make investment to
generate annual payments that last forever. Assuming a long term
net return on investments of 5% p.a., how much money can be
used on charity every year?
Determine the annual payment if it is made (1) in arrears or (2) in
advance.

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Financial Mathematics
Module 1: Time Value of Money and Valuation of Cash Flows
Term Annuities

Plan

Module 1: Time Value of Money and Valuation of Cash Flows


Cash Flow Models
A Mathematical Model of Interest
Simple and Compound Interest
Discount Interest
Nominal Interest
Force of Interest
Real and Money Interest
Relation between Cash Flow, Interest and Present Value
Annuities: Introduction
Term Annuities
Non-Level Annuities

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Financial Mathematics
Module 1: Time Value of Money and Valuation of Cash Flows
Term Annuities

Annuity-immediate (paid in arrears)

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Financial Mathematics
Module 1: Time Value of Money and Valuation of Cash Flows
Term Annuities

Numerical example
A Bond pays $100 at time 3. Coupon payments of $5 are payable
at times 1, 2, and 3.
1. Find the Price of the Bond if the effective yield is i = 5%.
2. What is the Price if the effective yield is 6%?

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Financial Mathematics
Module 1: Time Value of Money and Valuation of Cash Flows
Term Annuities

Annuity-due (paid in advance)

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Financial Mathematics
Module 1: Time Value of Money and Valuation of Cash Flows
Term Annuities

Numerical example
A Bond pays $100 at time 2. Coupon payments of $5 are payable
times 0, 1, and 2. (i.e. the first payment occurs immediately after
purchase).
1. Find the Price of the Bond if the effective yield is i = 6%.
2. What is the Price if the effective yield is 5%?

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Financial Mathematics
Module 1: Time Value of Money and Valuation of Cash Flows
Term Annuities

Deferred annuity

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Financial Mathematics
Module 1: Time Value of Money and Valuation of Cash Flows
Term Annuities

Numerical example
Consider a Bond pays $100 at time 6. Coupon payments of $5 are
payable times 4, 5, and 6. How much would you be willing to pay
to purchase the bond today? Assume i = 6%.

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Financial Mathematics
Module 1: Time Value of Money and Valuation of Cash Flows
Term Annuities

Payments more frequent than a year

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Financial Mathematics
Module 1: Time Value of Money and Valuation of Cash Flows
Term Annuities

Alternative method

Alternatively, find the effective pthly rate of interest,

i (p)
j = (1 + i)1/p − 1 = .
p
Then
(p) 1
an i = anp j
p
where j = (1 + i)1/p − 1.

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Financial Mathematics
Module 1: Time Value of Money and Valuation of Cash Flows
Term Annuities

Numerical example
Payments of 10 made at end of each month for next 5 years.
Calculate their present value at (i) 8% p.a. effective, and (ii) 8%
p.a. convertible half-yearly.
There are at least two ways to do these questions:
1. work according to cash flows and change i
2. work according to i (p) and change cash flows

77/87
Financial Mathematics
Module 1: Time Value of Money and Valuation of Cash Flows
Non-Level Annuities

Plan

Module 1: Time Value of Money and Valuation of Cash Flows


Cash Flow Models
A Mathematical Model of Interest
Simple and Compound Interest
Discount Interest
Nominal Interest
Force of Interest
Real and Money Interest
Relation between Cash Flow, Interest and Present Value
Annuities: Introduction
Term Annuities
Non-Level Annuities

78/87
Financial Mathematics
Module 1: Time Value of Money and Valuation of Cash Flows
Non-Level Annuities

Increasing annuity (arithmetic progression)

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Financial Mathematics
Module 1: Time Value of Money and Valuation of Cash Flows
Non-Level Annuities

Numerical example
Value the following set of cashflows at 10% p.a.: A payment of$10
at time 1, $20 at time 2, $30 at time 3, $40 at time 4. What is the
present value at time t = 0?

What is the present value at time t = 1?

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Financial Mathematics
Module 1: Time Value of Money and Valuation of Cash Flows
Non-Level Annuities

Increasing annuity (arithmetic progression): general case

80/87
Financial Mathematics
Module 1: Time Value of Money and Valuation of Cash Flows
Non-Level Annuities

Numerical example
Value the following series of payments at 10% p.a.:

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Financial Mathematics
Module 1: Time Value of Money and Valuation of Cash Flows
Non-Level Annuities

Increasing annuity (geometric progression)

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Financial Mathematics
Module 1: Time Value of Money and Valuation of Cash Flows
Non-Level Annuities

Numerical example
You can invest in a bond that pays coupons that grow with
inflation. The coupon received at the end of the first year is
$25,000, and each annual payment will increase, with inflation, at
rate 2.5% p.a. There are 10 annual payments and the bond
matures in 10 years with a face value of $400,000 (not indexed to
inflation). What is the price of the bond at a valuation interest
rate of 8% p.a.?

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Financial Mathematics
Module 1: Time Value of Money and Valuation of Cash Flows
Non-Level Annuities

Increasing annuity with p payments per annum

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Financial Mathematics
Module 1: Time Value of Money and Valuation of Cash Flows
Non-Level Annuities

Numerical example
Determine the present value of a 10 year annuity with half-yearly
payments in arrears at rate 2 p.a. in the first year, 4 p.a. in the
second year, . . . , 20 p.a. in the 10th year. Use a 10% p.a.
convertible half-yearly compound interest rate.

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Financial Mathematics
Module 1: Time Value of Money and Valuation of Cash Flows
Non-Level Annuities

Decreasing annuity

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Financial Mathematics
Module 1: Time Value of Money and Valuation of Cash Flows
Non-Level Annuities

Numerical example
Value the following set of payments at 10% p.a: $40 at time 1,
$30 at time 2, $20 at time 3, $10 at time 4.

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