Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Eric Cheung
UNSW Sydney
Risk and Actuarial Studies, UNSW Business School
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Financial Mathematics
Plan
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Financial Mathematics
Module 1: Time Value of Money and Valuation of Cash Flows
Cash Flow Models
Plan
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Financial Mathematics
Module 1: Time Value of Money and Valuation of Cash Flows
Cash Flow Models
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Financial Mathematics
Module 1: Time Value of Money and Valuation of Cash Flows
Cash Flow Models
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Financial Mathematics
Module 1: Time Value of Money and Valuation of Cash Flows
Cash Flow Models
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Financial Mathematics
Module 1: Time Value of Money and Valuation of Cash Flows
Cash Flow Models
Procedure:
I make the cash flow clear; draw a time diagram
I choose any point in time
I now: present value, sometimes NPV (Net Present Value)
I in the future: accumulated value
I in the middle...
I should be convenient: all are equivalent!
I ”bring back or forth” all cash flows to the point of time you
have chosen
I add them up
I compare!
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Financial Mathematics
Module 1: Time Value of Money and Valuation of Cash Flows
Cash Flow Models
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Financial Mathematics
Module 1: Time Value of Money and Valuation of Cash Flows
A Mathematical Model of Interest
Plan
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Financial Mathematics
Module 1: Time Value of Money and Valuation of Cash Flows
A Mathematical Model of Interest
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Financial Mathematics
Module 1: Time Value of Money and Valuation of Cash Flows
A Mathematical Model of Interest
Time is money!
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Financial Mathematics
Module 1: Time Value of Money and Valuation of Cash Flows
A Mathematical Model of Interest
Mathematical model
Consider an amount of money invested for a period of time.
I A(0): principal = the amount of money initially invested
I t: the length of time for which the amount has been invested
I A(t): amount function or accumulated amount function
I this is the accumulated amount of money at time t
corresponding to A(0)
Assuming these are two equivalent cash flows at two different
point in time, how can we link them using interest?
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Financial Mathematics
Module 1: Time Value of Money and Valuation of Cash Flows
A Mathematical Model of Interest
Accumulation function
Let a(t) be the accumulation function:
I a(t) the accumulated value at time t of an original investment
of 1 made at time 0
I it is a scaled version of A(t) with a(0) = 1 and can thus be
studied independently of the amounts that are invested
I it represents the way in which money accumulates with the
passage of time
We have
A(t + k) a(t + k)
= ,
A(t) a(t)
which means
a(t + k)
A(t + k) = A(t) .
a(t)
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Financial Mathematics
Module 1: Time Value of Money and Valuation of Cash Flows
A Mathematical Model of Interest
Effective Interest
and then the effective rate of interest it,k for this same period is
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Financial Mathematics
Module 1: Time Value of Money and Valuation of Cash Flows
A Mathematical Model of Interest
Homogeneity in time
When the effective rate of interest is the same for all t, then we
have
a(t + k) a(k)
= = a(k)
a(t) a(0)
⇐⇒ A(t + k) = A(t)a(k)
and moreover
a(t + k) − a(t)
it,k = = a(k) − 1.
a(t)
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Financial Mathematics
Module 1: Time Value of Money and Valuation of Cash Flows
A Mathematical Model of Interest
Forms of interest
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Financial Mathematics
Module 1: Time Value of Money and Valuation of Cash Flows
A Mathematical Model of Interest
Plan
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Financial Mathematics
Module 1: Time Value of Money and Valuation of Cash Flows
Simple and Compound Interest
I 01/01/2011
I 30/06/2011
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Financial Mathematics
Module 1: Time Value of Money and Valuation of Cash Flows
Simple and Compound Interest
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Financial Mathematics
Module 1: Time Value of Money and Valuation of Cash Flows
Simple and Compound Interest
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Financial Mathematics
Module 1: Time Value of Money and Valuation of Cash Flows
Simple and Compound Interest
Simple Interest
Accumulation function: for simple interest i,
a(t) = 1 + it,
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Financial Mathematics
Module 1: Time Value of Money and Valuation of Cash Flows
Simple and Compound Interest
Numerical Example
A Bank accepts deposits for terms up to 3 years and pays interest
on maturity. How much interest would it pay on a deposit of
$20,000 for a term of 1 year and 33 days if the interest rate is 5%
p.a. simple?
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Financial Mathematics
Module 1: Time Value of Money and Valuation of Cash Flows
Simple and Compound Interest
Compound Interest
Accumulation function: for compound interest i,
a(t) = (1 + i)t ,
or alternatively
a(t + k)
= (1 + i)k = a(k), t, k ≥ 0.
a(t)
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Financial Mathematics
Module 1: Time Value of Money and Valuation of Cash Flows
Simple and Compound Interest
Numerical Example
A Bank accepts deposits for terms up to 3 years and pays interest
on maturity. How much interest would it pay on a deposit of
$20,000 for a term of 1 year and 33 days if the interest rate is 5%
p.a. effective?
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Financial Mathematics
Module 1: Time Value of Money and Valuation of Cash Flows
Simple and Compound Interest
General questions
1. What happens to the accumulation if i ↑? i ↓?
2. What is the amount of interest earned during each unit period
under compound interest? simple interest?
3. What is the effective rate of interest during each unit period
under compound interest? simple interest?
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Financial Mathematics
Module 1: Time Value of Money and Valuation of Cash Flows
Discount Interest
Plan
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Financial Mathematics
Module 1: Time Value of Money and Valuation of Cash Flows
Discount Interest
Rate of Discount
The rate of interest i applies to the principal now, for interest
calculated at t = 1, whereas the rate of discount d applies to the
principal at the end of the period, for interest calculated at t = 0.
In other words, for i:
I we focus on the principal now
I we correct this figure by adding interest at the end of the
period
and for d:
I we focus on the principal at the end of the period
I we correct this figure by subtracting interest now
Both methods are equivalent, and use of one or the other is
dictated by the situation for convenience.
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Financial Mathematics
Module 1: Time Value of Money and Valuation of Cash Flows
Discount Interest
a(1) − a(0)
Remember: i =
a(0)
A(1) − A(0)
= =⇒ a(1) = 1 + i
A(0)
a(1) − a(0)
Now: d =
a(1)
A(1) − A(0) 1
= =⇒ a(1) =
A(1) 1−d
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Financial Mathematics
Module 1: Time Value of Money and Valuation of Cash Flows
Discount Interest
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Financial Mathematics
Module 1: Time Value of Money and Valuation of Cash Flows
Discount Interest
Numerical Example
In the US Treasury Bills are quoted using ‘simple discount’ on the
basis of a 360 day year.
Consider a US T-Bill with a face value of 500,000 and maturity in
180 days time. Suppose that this is sold to yield 6% p.a (simple
discount). What are the proceeds of the sale?
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Financial Mathematics
Module 1: Time Value of Money and Valuation of Cash Flows
Discount Interest
d
i =
1−d
i
d =
1+i
d = iv
d = 1−v
i −d = id
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Financial Mathematics
Module 1: Time Value of Money and Valuation of Cash Flows
Discount Interest
Intuition behind d = 1 − v ?
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Financial Mathematics
Module 1: Time Value of Money and Valuation of Cash Flows
Discount Interest
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Financial Mathematics
Module 1: Time Value of Money and Valuation of Cash Flows
Nominal Interest
Plan
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Financial Mathematics
Module 1: Time Value of Money and Valuation of Cash Flows
Nominal Interest
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Financial Mathematics
Module 1: Time Value of Money and Valuation of Cash Flows
Nominal Interest
i (m)
m
is an effective rate of interest for a period of 1/m years.
Reminder:
I the effective rate of interest for a period is the ratio between
1. the actual amount of interest earned and
2. the principal at the beginning of the period (for interest) or at
the end of the period (for discount).
I i (m) (for m > 1) is not an effective rate of interest
I i is the effective rate of interest for a year, equivalent to i (m)
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Financial Mathematics
Module 1: Time Value of Money and Valuation of Cash Flows
Nominal Interest
<
i (m) >i ??
Can you use your financial reasoning to convince yourself which is
correct?
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Financial Mathematics
Module 1: Time Value of Money and Valuation of Cash Flows
Nominal Interest
Numerical Example
A product offers interest at 8% p.a., payable quarterly. What is the
effective annual rate of interest implied?
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Financial Mathematics
Module 1: Time Value of Money and Valuation of Cash Flows
Nominal Interest
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Financial Mathematics
Module 1: Time Value of Money and Valuation of Cash Flows
Nominal Interest
Exercise
1
Show that d (m) = i (m) vi m
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Financial Mathematics
Module 1: Time Value of Money and Valuation of Cash Flows
Nominal Interest
Numerical Example
Find the accumulated amount of $100 invested for 15 years if
i (4) = .08 for the first 5 years, d = .07 for the second 5 years and
d (2) = .06 for the last 5 years.
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Financial Mathematics
Module 1: Time Value of Money and Valuation of Cash Flows
Force of Interest
Plan
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Financial Mathematics
Module 1: Time Value of Money and Valuation of Cash Flows
Force of Interest
Force of Interest
Consider
!m
i (m)
lim 1+
m→∞ m
!2
i (m) m (m − 1) i (m)
= lim 1 + m · + + ...
m→∞ m 2! m
2 3
(∞) i (∞) i (∞)
= 1+i + + + ...
2! 3!
i (∞) δ
= e or e ,
Force of Discount
Similarly, consider
!m
d (m)
lim 1−
m→∞ m
!2
d (m) m (m − 1) d (m)
= lim 1 − m · + − ...
m→∞ m 2! m
2 3
(∞) d (∞) d (∞)
= 1−d + − + ...
2! 3!
(∞)
= e −d ,
We have
(∞) (∞)
1 − d = e −d and 1 + i = e i .
Now
1
1−d =v = .
1+i
Thus,
i (∞) = d (∞) ≡ δ
and, in general,
d < . . . < d (m) < . . . < d (∞) = δ = i (∞) < . . . < i (m) < . . . < i.
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Financial Mathematics
Module 1: Time Value of Money and Valuation of Cash Flows
Force of Interest
Let
I A(0) be the principal invested at time 0
I interest be paid continuously at a rate δ (t) at time t
We seek an expression for A(t).
and thus
A(t + 4t) − A(t)
δ(t) ≈ .
A(t)4t
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Financial Mathematics
Module 1: Time Value of Money and Valuation of Cash Flows
Force of Interest
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Financial Mathematics
Module 1: Time Value of Money and Valuation of Cash Flows
Force of Interest
Zt
δ(s)ds = ln A(s)|t0
s=0
= ln A(t) − ln A(0)
A(t)
= ln .
A(0)
Thus we have Z t
A(t) = A(0) exp δ(s)ds
0
and Z t
a(t) = exp δ(s)ds .
0
Numerical Example
Force of interest at time 0 is 0.04, and increases uniformly to 0.06
after 5 years. Find the amount after 5 years of an investment of $1.
a(t + k) k
= e 2 [δ(t)+δ(t+k)]
a(t)
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Financial Mathematics
Module 1: Time Value of Money and Valuation of Cash Flows
Real and Money Interest
Plan
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Financial Mathematics
Module 1: Time Value of Money and Valuation of Cash Flows
Real and Money Interest
Inflation
When comparing cash flows, time has to be accounted for
1. because of the time preference of agents in the economy (risk
free interest)
2. because there is a risk of default (risk premium)
3. because the value of money changes over time:
inflation/deflation
Inflation:
I Inflation (deflation) is characterized by rising (falling) prices,
or by falling (rising) value of money.
I A common way of measuring inflation is the change in
Consumer Price Index (CPI) which itself measures the annual
rate of change in a specified ”basket” of consumer items.
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Financial Mathematics
Module 1: Time Value of Money and Valuation of Cash Flows
Real and Money Interest
Notation
Let
I i p.a. be the money interest rate
I r p.a. be the real interest rate
I p(t) be the price index (with p(0) = 1)
I π p.a. be the inflation rate
What relationships can be established among i, r , p(t) and π?
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Financial Mathematics
Module 1: Time Value of Money and Valuation of Cash Flows
Real and Money Interest
Main relations
We have
a(0) = 1 and a(1) = 1 + i.
and
p(0) = 1 and p(1) = 1 + π
Thus, the value of accumulation at today’s prices at time 1 is
given by
a(1) 1+i
= .
p(1) 1+π
Now, define
1+i i −π
1+r = ⇐⇒ r = .
1+π 1+π
Caution: this holds only for effective rates!
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Financial Mathematics
Module 1: Time Value of Money and Valuation of Cash Flows
Real and Money Interest
Example
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Financial Mathematics
Module 1: Time Value of Money and Valuation of Cash Flows
Real and Money Interest
.09/4 − .05/4
= 0.9876543%
1 + .05/4
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Financial Mathematics
Module 1: Time Value of Money and Valuation of Cash Flows
Real and Money Interest
Asset 1
Method 1:
100, 000
PV = 40
1 + .09
4
= 41, 064.58
Method 2:
100, 000
Real value = 40 = 60, 841.33
1 + .05
4
60, 841.33
PV = = 41, 064.57
(1.00987654)40
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Financial Mathematics
Module 1: Time Value of Money and Valuation of Cash Flows
Real and Money Interest
Asset 2
Method 1:
40
100, 000 1 + .05
4
PV =
.09 40
1+ 4
= 67, 494.53
Method 2:
100, 000
PV =
(1.00987654)40
= 67, 494.54
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Financial Mathematics
Module 1: Time Value of Money and Valuation of Cash Flows
Relation between Cash Flow, Interest and Present Value
Plan
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Financial Mathematics
Module 1: Time Value of Money and Valuation of Cash Flows
Relation between Cash Flow, Interest and Present Value
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Financial Mathematics
Module 1: Time Value of Money and Valuation of Cash Flows
Relation between Cash Flow, Interest and Present Value
Practical examples
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Financial Mathematics
Module 1: Time Value of Money and Valuation of Cash Flows
Relation between Cash Flow, Interest and Present Value
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Financial Mathematics
Module 1: Time Value of Money and Valuation of Cash Flows
Relation between Cash Flow, Interest and Present Value
1 1 d
v= = =1−d = .
a(1) 1+i i
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Financial Mathematics
Module 1: Time Value of Money and Valuation of Cash Flows
Relation between Cash Flow, Interest and Present Value
Numerical Examples
Example 1
Consider a Coupon bond which pays $6 at times 1 and 2, and an
additional $100 at time 2. Find the Present Value of this bond at
8% p.a. effective interest.
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Financial Mathematics
Module 1: Time Value of Money and Valuation of Cash Flows
Relation between Cash Flow, Interest and Present Value
Numerical Examples
Example 2
In Australia, Short term Government securities such as Treasury
Notes and Treasury Bonds (less than 6 months to maturity) are
priced using simple interest and a 365 day convention.
Consider a Treasury-note with a face value of 500,000 and
maturity in 180 days time. Suppose that this is sold at a yield
(interest rate) of 6% p.a. What are the proceeds of the sale?
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Financial Mathematics
Module 1: Time Value of Money and Valuation of Cash Flows
Relation between Cash Flow, Interest and Present Value
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Financial Mathematics
Module 1: Time Value of Money and Valuation of Cash Flows
Relation between Cash Flow, Interest and Present Value
f (in ) f (in )
f 0 (in ) ≈ =⇒ in+1 = in − 0
in − in+1 f (in )
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Financial Mathematics
Module 1: Time Value of Money and Valuation of Cash Flows
Relation between Cash Flow, Interest and Present Value
Numerical Example
A Bond pays $100 in 1.5 years. Coupon payments of $5 are
payable times 0.5, 1, and 1.5
1. Find the Price of the Bond if the yield is i (2) = 6%.
2. Suppose the Price of the Bond is 107.14. Find the Yield
implied by this price.
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Financial Mathematics
Module 1: Time Value of Money and Valuation of Cash Flows
Annuities: Introduction
Plan
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Financial Mathematics
Module 1: Time Value of Money and Valuation of Cash Flows
Annuities: Introduction
Notation
(p)
m| äx:n i
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Financial Mathematics
Module 1: Time Value of Money and Valuation of Cash Flows
Annuities: Introduction
Perpetuity
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Financial Mathematics
Module 1: Time Value of Money and Valuation of Cash Flows
Annuities: Introduction
Numerical example
A foundation has $100,000,000. Instead of spending the entire
amount immediately on charity, it plans make investment to
generate annual payments that last forever. Assuming a long term
net return on investments of 5% p.a., how much money can be
used on charity every year?
Determine the annual payment if it is made (1) in arrears or (2) in
advance.
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Financial Mathematics
Module 1: Time Value of Money and Valuation of Cash Flows
Term Annuities
Plan
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Financial Mathematics
Module 1: Time Value of Money and Valuation of Cash Flows
Term Annuities
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Financial Mathematics
Module 1: Time Value of Money and Valuation of Cash Flows
Term Annuities
Numerical example
A Bond pays $100 at time 3. Coupon payments of $5 are payable
at times 1, 2, and 3.
1. Find the Price of the Bond if the effective yield is i = 5%.
2. What is the Price if the effective yield is 6%?
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Financial Mathematics
Module 1: Time Value of Money and Valuation of Cash Flows
Term Annuities
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Financial Mathematics
Module 1: Time Value of Money and Valuation of Cash Flows
Term Annuities
Numerical example
A Bond pays $100 at time 2. Coupon payments of $5 are payable
times 0, 1, and 2. (i.e. the first payment occurs immediately after
purchase).
1. Find the Price of the Bond if the effective yield is i = 6%.
2. What is the Price if the effective yield is 5%?
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Financial Mathematics
Module 1: Time Value of Money and Valuation of Cash Flows
Term Annuities
Deferred annuity
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Financial Mathematics
Module 1: Time Value of Money and Valuation of Cash Flows
Term Annuities
Numerical example
Consider a Bond pays $100 at time 6. Coupon payments of $5 are
payable times 4, 5, and 6. How much would you be willing to pay
to purchase the bond today? Assume i = 6%.
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Financial Mathematics
Module 1: Time Value of Money and Valuation of Cash Flows
Term Annuities
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Financial Mathematics
Module 1: Time Value of Money and Valuation of Cash Flows
Term Annuities
Alternative method
i (p)
j = (1 + i)1/p − 1 = .
p
Then
(p) 1
an i = anp j
p
where j = (1 + i)1/p − 1.
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Financial Mathematics
Module 1: Time Value of Money and Valuation of Cash Flows
Term Annuities
Numerical example
Payments of 10 made at end of each month for next 5 years.
Calculate their present value at (i) 8% p.a. effective, and (ii) 8%
p.a. convertible half-yearly.
There are at least two ways to do these questions:
1. work according to cash flows and change i
2. work according to i (p) and change cash flows
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Financial Mathematics
Module 1: Time Value of Money and Valuation of Cash Flows
Non-Level Annuities
Plan
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Financial Mathematics
Module 1: Time Value of Money and Valuation of Cash Flows
Non-Level Annuities
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Financial Mathematics
Module 1: Time Value of Money and Valuation of Cash Flows
Non-Level Annuities
Numerical example
Value the following set of cashflows at 10% p.a.: A payment of$10
at time 1, $20 at time 2, $30 at time 3, $40 at time 4. What is the
present value at time t = 0?
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Financial Mathematics
Module 1: Time Value of Money and Valuation of Cash Flows
Non-Level Annuities
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Financial Mathematics
Module 1: Time Value of Money and Valuation of Cash Flows
Non-Level Annuities
Numerical example
Value the following series of payments at 10% p.a.:
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Financial Mathematics
Module 1: Time Value of Money and Valuation of Cash Flows
Non-Level Annuities
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Financial Mathematics
Module 1: Time Value of Money and Valuation of Cash Flows
Non-Level Annuities
Numerical example
You can invest in a bond that pays coupons that grow with
inflation. The coupon received at the end of the first year is
$25,000, and each annual payment will increase, with inflation, at
rate 2.5% p.a. There are 10 annual payments and the bond
matures in 10 years with a face value of $400,000 (not indexed to
inflation). What is the price of the bond at a valuation interest
rate of 8% p.a.?
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Financial Mathematics
Module 1: Time Value of Money and Valuation of Cash Flows
Non-Level Annuities
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Financial Mathematics
Module 1: Time Value of Money and Valuation of Cash Flows
Non-Level Annuities
Numerical example
Determine the present value of a 10 year annuity with half-yearly
payments in arrears at rate 2 p.a. in the first year, 4 p.a. in the
second year, . . . , 20 p.a. in the 10th year. Use a 10% p.a.
convertible half-yearly compound interest rate.
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Financial Mathematics
Module 1: Time Value of Money and Valuation of Cash Flows
Non-Level Annuities
Decreasing annuity
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Financial Mathematics
Module 1: Time Value of Money and Valuation of Cash Flows
Non-Level Annuities
Numerical example
Value the following set of payments at 10% p.a: $40 at time 1,
$30 at time 2, $20 at time 3, $10 at time 4.
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