Monetary policy of Vietnam during the covid 19 pandemic

1. Reasons for choosing topic:

- Early in 2020, the COVID-19 epidemic broke out, sending shockwaves through
economies all across the world. Vietnam experienced unheard-of difficulties,
much like many other countries. But throughout this crucial time, its response
to monetary policy was crucial in preserving economic stability, fostering
recovery, and guaranteeing resilience.
- This essay delves into the rationale behind selecting this subject and examines
the ways in which Vietnam's central bank modified its framework for monetary
policy to tackle the complex effects of the pandemic. Policymakers worldwide
may learn a lot from Vietnam's strategy, which includes employing pre-
pandemic economic fundamentals and implementing strong containment
measures.
- Come along as we analyze the nuances of Vietnam's monetary policy during the
pandemic, looking at both its achievements and continuing difficulties. While
we make our way across these unfamiliar waters, being aware of the subtleties
of monetary policy.
2. Aims and objectives
The primary objective of this research is to elucidate the attributes, mechanisms, and
consequences of monetary policy. Subsequently, an overview of the epidemic scenario
in Vietnam will be provided, and the monetary policies implemented by Vietnam in
response to the COVID-19 pandemic will be scrutinized. The research team then
illustrates the consequences of those policies and assesses how effective they are. The
research team then assesses the efficacy of such policies and illustrates their impact.
The research team will provide recommendations for Vietnam's monetary policy in the
future based on this.
3. Scope of research
- Geographic Scope
The study will begin with a summary of monetary policy before delving into specifics
of the COVID-19 outbreak in Vietnam and how monetary policy affected the country's
economy at the time.
- Time Range
Studies of the Vietnamese economy from the start of the pandemic in 2020 to the
present (2024).
4. Research method
- Methods of data collection: Secondary data is needed to serve the topic
collected from sources: websites, and especially the national statistics reports
and other calculating reports.
- Methods of synthesis and analysis: The research uses a system of methods
economic statistics, data collection and analysis.
 - Synthesize data: Use a disaggregation method to systematize the collected data
collected in accordance with the purpose of the research.
- Data analysis: Applying the methods of economic and statistical analysis collect
and analyze the collected data.
5. Essay Structure
- Chapter I: Vietnam's monetary policy and its importance during the Covid
19 epidemic.
- Chapter II: THEORETICAL BASIS.
- Chapter III: WHAT HAS BEEN HAPPENING IN THE REALITY?
- Chapter IV: WHAT WOULD YOU SUGGEST TO IMPROVE THE
SITUATION.

CHAPTER I:

Vietnam's monetary policy and its importance during the Covid 19 epidemic

1.1 Impact of COVID-19 epidemic

COVID-19 impacts all aspects of socioeconomic life, negatively affecting economic growth,
commercial activities, labor, employment, and workers' income. Faced with this shock,
Vietnam quickly implemented a system of solutions (solutions innovation), first of all, to limit
the spread of epidemics, and then to develop the economy (La, 2020; Vuong, Q.H., 2022).
The solutions have proven initially successful in controlling the epidemic, preventing it from
spreading in the community, and developing socio-economic development activities.
Therefore, maintaining policy solutions to support the economic recovery process is
necessary, but we cannot be subjective with inflation pressure, requiring policy coordination
to be very close and rhythmic. dosage, implementation methods, especially monetary policy,
and CSTK.
1.1.1 With the world economy
The COVID-19 pandemic has been impacting the global value chain through the centers of
the chain: Social distancing measures have caused many production activities to pause and
supply chains to be disrupted. The epidemic severely affected investment activities and global
trade and led to a decline in the economic growth of countries.
Global foreign direct investment (FDI) narrowed sharply. According to forecasts of
UNCTAD (United Nations Conference on Trade and Development), FDI flows will decrease
by another 5% - 10% in 2021 and begin to recover in 2022. However, in the tense epidemic
situation, Frankly, the possibility of FDI inflows recovering is impossible and quite unclear.
(Gertler M & Karadi P, 2011)
Global trade - which is closely linked to global FDI - is also being negatively impacted during
the epidemic: Because some large input supply centers play an important role in the value
chain and production network. global production, so the difficulties that COVID-19 brings to
production centers will severely affect global trade. Under these circumstances, some
countries turned to "self-sufficiency" as a response to the pandemic, but did not know that this
situation would make global trade worse.
COVID-19 reduces global output growth: In particular, the world economic growth situation
in some countries and territories - trade partners of Vietnam, will directly impact trade. trade
and investment of our country's economy.

Figure 1. 2020 GDP report according to Schroders. Source: Schroders

Three graphics to help you picture what 2022 may bring - Luxembourg Professional -
Schroders

COVID-19 has had a severe impact on global employment. According to the World Trade
Organization (ILO), total global working hours decreased by 14% in the second quarter of
2020. Those hours are equivalent to 400 million full-time workers. Causes such as production
decline, social distancing measures to combat SARS-CoV-2...
The COVID-19 pandemic is a strong health shock, negatively impacting the world economy.
Global growth is negative; global trade declines; Workers lose their jobs and the
unemployment rate increases.

1.1.2. With Vietnam's economy:

For demand factors: Total demand declined sharply in both investment, domestic
consumption, and world demand for goods. In particular, both domestic and international
demand are constrained by national lockdown and social distancing measures.
The implementation of necessary and mandatory social distancing measures according to
Directive No. 16/CT-TTg, dated March 31, 2020, of the Prime Minister, "On the
implementation of urgent measures to prevent and control epidemics" COVID-19” caused a
sharp decline in domestic consumption. (Ministry of Justice Electronic Information Portal,
2020) Meanwhile, major economies (USA, China, EU, Japan, Korea) also implemented social
distancing, causing economic growth to decline. This situation leads to a decrease in import
demand from countries, especially goods imported from Vietnam. Other service activities
such as transportation, especially air transportation, accommodation, food services... are also
heavily affected. (Dao Ngoc Dung, 2020)
 Figure 2. Chart predicting real GDP growth in Vietnam from 2016 to 2026.
Source: IMF
• Vietnam - gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate 2026 | Statista

Regarding investment demand: The investment demand of two sectors: the non-state sector
and the FDI sector decreased compared to the previous year. Investment capital in the FDI
sector decreased the most. For external demand (export): Export turnover of some typical
products such as phones, computers, seafood,... fluctuates.
Figure 3. Export value of the ten largest commodity types in Vietnam. Source: Vietnam
Customs FDI Data Shows Vietnam’s Steady Economic Growth(vietnam-briefing.com)

In general, due to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, the economy's demand
(consumption, investment, export) has decreased, thereby reducing production activities and
growth of the economy. The Government's current measures are mainly aimed at stimulating
aggregate demand and restoring production.
For supply factors: The COVID-19 pandemic disrupted the input and labor supply chain:
When labor supply is lacking, many businesses, especially businesses with foreign experts
and workers, Foreign countries must declare a temporary halt to production. Labor costs are
also higher when businesses have to invest in more masks, and antiseptic water, and
implement labor safety measures to avoid COVID-19 infection.
Currently, most businesses operate based on loans that are guaranteed to be repaid with future
revenue: When the economy stagnates, economy stagnates, many businesses have to stop
operating, but there are also businesses with loans that need to be repaid and interest, leading
to a wave of defaults, bankruptcy of businesses and creating a terrible disaster for the market.
finance and system of credit institutions. It can be said that traditional monetary policies will
no longer be effective. Reducing interest rates and increasing liquidity will not help
businesses borrow more, because businesses have almost no need to borrow during this
period. At the same time, many businesses have no revenue because there is no supply,
leading to being unable to repay debt. At that time, it will be more difficult for businesses to
access credit capital.

From a social point of view, COVID-19 increases poverty and near poverty in terms of
income and leads to a temporary decrease in the income of households and workers. More
importantly, households belonging to ethnic minorities, households with informal workers,
and families of immigrants are more affected by the epidemic. According to survey results of
the United Nations Development Program (UNDP) and UN WOMEN (2020): “In April
2020, the average poverty rate was 50.7%. The rate of near-poor households is 6.5% in April
2020”. According to survey results by UNDP and UN WOMEN (2020): “The average
income of ethnic minority households in May 2020 was only 35.7% compared to the level in
December 2019. In May 2020, the average income of migrant households was estimated to be
only equivalent to 43.2% of the level in December 2019. This number is 52.5% for the group
of non-migrant households”.

1.2. Vietnam's monetary policy

1.2.1. Urgency
As soon as the epidemic broke out, the entire political system took drastic action, along with
the consensus and solidarity of the entire people and the entire army in epidemic prevention
and control. The Government has issued a series of policies, in which monetary policy has
affirmed its role in the circulation of "blood flow" in the economy, supporting businesses to
overcome difficulties and stabilize production. (Tran Quoc Vuong, 2020) The top priority
goal of monetary policy in the Covid context: Maintain business operations, minimize
bankruptcy; Maintain jobs for workers, limit unemployment and loss of income; Ensure that
the banking system - the lifeblood of the economy - maintains a stable state, operates well,
and is capable of reviving the economy after the epidemic. (Tran Quoc Vuong, 2020)
In this context, monetary policy can support the production and business sector through the
State Bank supporting commercial banks to restructure current debts for customers (reducing
interest rates on current debts, reversing in debt..); Interest exemption, and reduction during
periods when the enterprise has no revenue. (Hong Anh, 2021)

1.2.2.Vietnam monetary policy 2020-2021:

* 2020- 2021
First, synchronously and flexibly operate monetary policy tools and closely coordinate with
other MSKTV to minimize the pressure of increasing inflation to support economic growth.
Inflation is stable, maintains the investment community's trust in Vietnam's business
environment and attracts FDI. (Taylor J, 2007)
Second, continuously adjust and synchronously reduce interest rates on a large scale to
support the economy and at the same time direct credit institutions to proactively "balance
their financial capacity" thereby applying reasonable and thorough lending interest rates. to
reduce operating costs.
Vietnam is one of the countries with the strongest reduction in operating interest rates
(compared to other countries in the region). (Taylor J, 2007)
Third, foreign bank branches restructure debt repayment terms, waive fees, reduce interest
and fees, maintain the same debt group, and organize conferences connecting banks and
businesses nationwide.
November 22, 2021, the credit institution system achieved: Restructuring debt repayment
terms for 266,191 customers with outstanding debt of 366,309 billion VND. Exempt or lower
interest rates for 625,064 customers with outstanding debt of 1,061,522 billion VND. A new
loan with a preferential interest rate with accumulated sales from January 23, 2020, to
February 22, 2021, reaching 2,655,887 billion for 426,134 customers. The Bank for Social
Policies extended debt to 169,770 customers - outstanding debt of 4,230 billion and lent new
loans to 2,258,413 customers - 81,000 billion. (Hong Anh, 2021)
Fourth, credit institutions focus all resources on improving lending processes and
procedures; and proactively regularly review and adjust credit growth targets for credit
institutions that can expand safe and healthy credit. Credit growth is guaranteed to be
consistent with orientation targets, capital absorption capacity, coupled with credit quality.
(Hong Anh, 2021)
Fifth, operate and announce flexible central exchange rates every day, suitable for domestic
and foreign markets, balance macroeconomic, monetary, and monetary policy goals,
combined with payment regulation solutions Reasonable terms, proactive communication,
intervention in buying/selling foreign currency with credit institutions. On March 11, 2021,
the central exchange rate was at 23,204 VND/USD, up 0.32% compared to the end of 2020.
The average interbank exchange rate was at 23,051 VND/USD, down -0.17% compared to the
end of 2020. (Hong Anh, 2021)
Sixth, monetary policy coordinates with fiscal policy and other policies.
The State Bank exchanges information and coordinates closely with ministries and branches
in operating monetary policy, prices of goods and services, forecasting inflation, and
coordinates closely with the Ministry of Finance to help stabilize system liquidity and control.
currency and create conditions to reduce Government bond interest rates in the first 2 months
of 2021, government bond interest rates continue to trend down by about 0.1 - 0.19%/year
across all terms. (Hong Anh, 2021)
The results contribute to the successful implementation of the "dual goals", making a great
contribution to the overall achievement of the country's socio-economic development
indicators set by the Party and the National Assembly.
* 2021- present:
First, ensure system liquidity.
In the first quarter of 2021, the Monetary Policy coordinated with the Monetary Policy
Department to smooth liquidity for the system, stabilize the monetary market, and create
conditions to reduce input costs for credit institutions, helping to reduce pressure on deposit
interest rates. mobilization and lending. (BIDV Training & Research Institute Expert Group,
2020)
Second, Interest rate management.
From the beginning of the year until now, the State Bank has kept the operating interest rate
unchanged, creating conditions for credit institutions to access capital from the State Bank at
low costs, so they have conditions to reduce lending interest rates. Mobilization and lending
interest rates in February 2021 decreased slightly (BIDV Training & Research Institute Expert
Group, 2020)
Third, Credit management.
Based on the 2021 economic growth and inflation targets set by the National Assembly and
the Government at the beginning of the year, the State Bank has built a credit orientation
target for the whole year 2021 of about 12%, and will be adjusted accordingly. With
developments and the actual situation, it can be up to 14-15%. April 16, 2021, economic
credit increased by 3.34% compared to the end of 2020. April 5, 2021 (BIDV Training &
Research Institute Expert Group, 2020)
Fourth, Electronic payment continues to be focused on investment and expansion.
In March 2021, there were over 79 payment service providers deploying payments via the
Internet and 44 payment organizations via mobile phones. (BIDV Training & Research
Institute Expert Group, 2020)
Fifth. Concentrate capital on production and business sectors, especially priority sectors. In
March 2021, agricultural and rural development reached 2,327,762 billion VND. This is the
sector with the largest outstanding debt among the 5 priority sectors. (BIDV Training &
Research Institute Expert Group, 2020)
1.2.3. Compare
* Foreign predictions
The IMF predicts that cumulative economic losses due to the epidemic will reach 9,000
billion USD in 2021. The World Bank (WB) predicts that growth in developing countries in
East Asia and the Pacific will decrease by 2.1%. and the lower case scenario drops to -0.5% in
2020, compared to the forecast of 5.8% in 2019. (Tran Thi Van Anh, 2020)

* World monetary policy

The COVID-19 pandemic has led to a series of significant economic measures by major
central banks worldwide. The US Federal Reserve Bank (FED) cut interest rates to 0% in the
first half of March 2020, followed by trillions of dollars in money injection packages. The
Central Bank of Korea (BoK) also lowered interest rates by 0.5 percentage points to a low
level of 0.75%. The Bank of Japan supported 500 billion yen (4.6 billion USD) to ensure
liquidity in the system. The UK announced a massive economic relief package worth 330
billion British pounds, equivalent to 15% of GDP, and cut interest rates from 0.75% to the
lowest level in history at 0.25%. Singapore plans to reduce corporate income tax, while South
Korea provides cash to small companies struggling to pay wages.

Vietnam is one of the countries with the strongest reduction in operating interest rates
compared to other regions, with reasonable loan interest rates and focusing resources on
reducing mobilization and lending interest rates. The Vietnamese Government has proactively
controlled all situations, allowing the Vietnamese economy to stand firm amidst external
shocks. With policy space in hand, Vietnam is in a strong position to overcome the ongoing
health and economic crisis and benefit from free trade agreements.

1.3. Evaluation
1.3.1. Effective
Effectively operating monetary policy, contributing to macroeconomic stability: Looking
back at the period 2016-2020, the State Bank has effectively managed monetary policy thanks
to its steadfastness, proactiveness, prudence, and flexibility, contributing to controlling
inflation below 4% in accordance with the National Assembly's target, contributing to
stabilizing the macroeconomy and increasing economic growth, stabilizing the currency and
foreign exchange markets. (Chari V & Kehoe P, 1999)
The State Bank of Vietnam has managed credit according to the motto of expansion combined
with safety and efficiency, in accordance with the policy of gradually reducing the ratio of
bank credit investment capital, innovating the model, and improving the quality of economic
growth. The SBV's credit solutions and policies are on the right track, ensuring safety,
providing adequate capital for the economy, and consistently controlling inflation. Credit
structure is shifting in a positive direction, focusing mainly on areas such as production,
business, and priority areas.
Payment activities have made great strides in both quality and quantity with many new,
convenient, and modern payment services and products based on information technology
applications. Payment technology has had groundbreaking developments. Non-cash payments
are promoted, digital banking products and services, and digital transformation activities
develop strongly. (Pham Quang Ha & Hoang Xuan Que, 2011)
The work of restructuring the system of credit institutions associated with handling bad debts
is carried out seriously and step by step effectively, ensuring the safety of the banking
system's operations and strengthening inspection and prevention work. anti-money laundering
and supervision to improve transparency in the economy. (Nguyen Thi Kim Anh, n.d.)
Control money supply at a reasonable level, especially credit growth to curb inflation and
support economic growth:
Credit policy adjusted by economic developments contributes to curbing inflation and
supporting economic growth. The State Bank of Vietnam has very flexible adjustments to
interest rates in operating monetary policy when there are some new developments in the
situation, interest rates closely follow price index developments, supporting more businesses
in difficult economic conditions. difficulties and strengthening society's confidence in VND,
deposit, and lending interest rates have dropped sharply. (Pham Quang Ha & Hoang Xuan
Que, 2011)
Implementing measures to stabilize the currency market, the situation of dollarization and
colonization has been controlled:
The State Bank has also made great efforts in monetary management and regulation by
operating monetary policy tools in a flexible way, coordinating closely and smoothly with
foreign exchange management, and gradually removing bottlenecks. market tightening,
ensuring the stability of the currency market. The proactive and flexible management of the
State Bank in recent years has effectively translated policies into practice and has achieved
the set goals, contributing to macroeconomic stability.
The trade balance deficit has narrowed sharply, the financial sector in particular has begun to
stabilize, exchange rates, interest rates, and gold prices have stabilized, and the system's
liquidity has improved and gradually entered the market. stable. (Nguyen Thi Thanh Huong &
Nguyen Thi Tuyet Anh, 2011)

1.3.2. Limit
Inflation is still high
Interest rates are too high and somewhat unreasonable:
Mobilizing capital from commercial banks is difficult, and liquidity in the banking system is
often tense, but the growth rate of outstanding loans of commercial banks is still high. It can
be explained by reasons such as banking services outside of credit activities have not been
expanded and developed well, interest income from credit activities is still the main source of
revenue for commercial banks, policy mechanisms, and The business environment, in general,
creates motivation and space for banks to grow credit strongly: mobilize capital at high-
interest rates; Loan interest rates are not controlled. (Khan Aubhik et al., 2003)
The interbank market is not well organized and controlled
In previous years, when inflation tended to increase, the State Bank still managed monetary
policy in the direction of continuing to maintain the State Bank's operating interest rate, only
increasing the compulsory reserve ratio for VND and foreign currencies to limit mechanisms
to increase credit and attract money from circulation.
(Hong Anh, 2021)
Market discipline is not strict, banking operations lack transparency
The stock market depends heavily on funding flows from the banking system and is currently
in sharp decline

CHAPTER II: THEORETICAL BASIS

 THEORETICAL BASIS

2.1 Definition of Monetary Policy

Monetary Policy can be defined as a macroeconomic policy by the Central Bank initiated
and implemented. By using measures and tools to achieve goals: Stabilize currency value and
economic growth – such as controlling inflation, maintaining stable exchange rates, and
creating jobs in society.

Based on the economic situation of each country, monetary policy can be set in two
directions:

A Contractionary Policy: Reduce money supply, and increase interest rates to investment,
production, and business, thereby reducing inflation, but increasing the unemployment rate,
this is a monetary policy to stabilize the value coin.

An Expansionary Policy: Increase money supply, reduce interest rates to promote production
and business, and reduce unemployment but increase inflation, anti-unemployment monetary
policy.

2.2 Monetary Policy – The Preferred Tool

2.2.1 Overview

In the system of macroeconomic controlling tools of the state, monetary policy is one of the
most important policies because it directly impacts the field of currency circulation. Finally, it
also has a close relationship with other macroeconomic policies: fiscal policy, income policy,
foreign economic policy…

2.2.2 Reasons

Fiscal Policy (FC) and Monetary Policy (MP) are two main tools used by the government to
intervene in the economy, however, Monetary Policy plays a more vital role because: First,
Monetary Policy can remain stable distance and smallest between realistic output levels with
potential output levels. Secondly, in developed countries, there has been a trend to stabilize
and reduce the amount of government lending, while in developing countries, the limitation of
foreign loans has reduced the ability to enforce an anti-crisis Fiscal Policy. Thirdly, there is a
delay in the practice of building and implementing Fiscal Policy in the context of increasingly
short economic deflation cycles, making FP solutions unable to be useful in a timely. Finally,
FP is more controlled by the benefits of political powers than MP is.

2.2.3 Expression

Not deviating from the general trend of the world, Vietnam has also used monetary policy as
the most important tool to adjust macroeconomics in recent years. This can be seen in the
process of operating the monetary policy of the State Bank of Vietnam.
 2.2.3.1 In Contractionary Policy

From the beginning of 2008 and the third quarter of 2010, monetary policy tools have been
mainly used to control inflation through tightening and the use of interest rate ceilings, such
as increasing required reserves and issuing mandatory bills; the base interest rate was adjusted
from 8.25% to 14% in 2008; increased the refinancing interest rate to 15% in 2008 and
continued to rise it five times from 9% to 15% in 2011. The discounted interest rate increased
to 13% in 2008, 7% in 2011, and 12% and 13% respectively in 2011. From February 2011,
The State Bank of VietNam also applied a ceiling interest rate of 14% for capital mobilization
with a term of less than 1 month, and increased the reserve rate for foreign currencies,…

2.2.3.2 In Expansionary Policy

The expansionary policy is used during periods of economic deflation to maintain growth
targets, such as from the fourth quarter of 2008 and the whole of 2009, the State Bank of
VietNam supported interest rates and lowered the basic interest rate to 8.5%, then to 7%,
discounted interest rate to 7,5% and refinancing interest rate to 9,5%, reducing the mandatory
reserve ratio for VND to 5%.

2.3 The Goals of Monetary Policy

2.3.1 Controlling inflation and stabilizing the value of money

Price stability and inflation control are the primary and long-term goals of monetary policy
and can influence the increase or decrease in the value of their country’s currency. The value
of a stable currency is considered in two aspects:

+Domestic purchasing power of the currency (price index of domestic goods and services)

+ Foreign purchasing power (exchange rate of your country's currency compared to foreign
currencies)

However, it does not mean that the inflation rate is zero, because then the economy can not
develop. In a stagnant economy, controlling inflation at a reasonably single digit will motivate
economic growth again.

2.3.2 Creating jobs and reducing the unemployment rate

Expansionary or contractionary policy has a direct impact on the effective use of social
resources, and the scale of production and business, and thereby affects the unemployment
rate of the economy. Specifically, monetary policy increases the money supply to help expand
the scale of the economy, businesses that increase production will need more workers, thereby
creating more jobs for people and reducing the unemployment rate. However, increasing the
money supply comes with accepting a certain inflation rate. Therefore, the State Bank of
VietNam has the responsibility to use its tools to expand investment in production and
business, while controlling the rate of unemployment not exceeding the natural
unemployment and inflation rate at an acceptable level.

2.3.3 Economic growth

Economic growth goals include increasing labor productivity, improving people's material
and spiritual lives, and stabilizing costs and prices. The role of economic growth is extremely
important because it helps improve people's lives, encourages the application of science and
technology, and creates socio-economic dynamism.

An increase or decrease in monetary has a strong impact on interest rates and general demand,
which in turn affects the increase in production investment and ultimately affects the total
national output, that is, affects the increase in production growth of the economy.

2.3.4 Stabilizing exchange rates

The exchange rate is the rate of currency exchange, reflecting the relationship in value
between the currencies of two countries. The exchange rate between two currencies is the
number of currency units needed to exchange one unit of foreign currency. This exchange rate
is formed based on the law of supply and demand of the market, managed and adjusted by the
State Bank of Vietnam.

In conditions of economic openness, the flow of goods and capital into and out of a country is
associated with the conversion between domestic and foreign currencies. Preventing strong
and unusual fluctuations in exchange rates helps make foreign economic activities more
effective thanks to accurate predictions in terms of volume and value. In addition, exchange
rates also affect the competitiveness of domestic goods with foreign ones in terms of price.

2.3.5 Stabilizing interest rates

Interest rate is an extremely important macroeconomic variable in the economy because it

affects the spending decisions of businesses and households. Unnormal fluctuations in interest
rates will cause difficulties for businesses and individuals in estimating spending or making
business plans. Therefore, stabilizing interest rates is also an important goal that central banks
aim to contribute to stabilizing the macroeconomic environment.
The goal of this is to ensure the task set from the beginning is to prioritize inflation control,
and macroeconomic stability and ensure the maintenance of positive real interest rates for
deposit interest rates to harmonize the interests of investors. participants in the currency
market.

2.4 Tools of monetary policy

2.4.1 Direct Tools

 2.4.1.1 Credit limit tool

Credit limit is the maximum loan limit in a credit institution's operations; The loan balance or
maximum loan balance at a certain time, usually the end of the quarter or year, is specified in
the bank's credit plan.

Credit limit is one of the Central Bank's direct intervention tools to control the increase in the
amount of credit institution system provides to the economy to ensure the growth of total
means of payment according to the target. Credit limit is the maximum outstanding debt level
that the Central Bank forces banks to respect when granting credit to the economy.

2.4.1.2 Exchange rate tool

A country's exchange rate policy affects that country's relative price structure in terms of
domestic currency between internationally traded (tradable) goods and goods produced for
domestic markets (non-commercial or household goods). Furthermore, exchange rate policy
will affect the general level of domestic prices. For these reasons, the particular exchange rate
system and exchange rate level chosen will have a broad impact, in terms of price incentives,
on the economy as a whole.

2.4.2 Indirect Tools

It is a tool whose effect is achieved thanks to the market mechanism. It includes:

2.4.2.1 Mandatory Reserve

Required reserves are the amount of money that credit institutions must deposit at the State
Bank to implement national monetary policy. The State Bank regulates the mandatory reserve
ratio for each type of credit institution and each type of deposit at a credit institution to
implement national monetary policy. The State Bank regulates the payment of interest on
required reserve deposits and deposits in excess of required reserves of each type of credit
institution for each type of deposit.

2.4.2.2 Refinancing

Refinancing is understood as a form of credit granted by the State Bank to provide short-term
capital and payment means for credit institutions.

The State Bank regulates and implements refinancing for credit institutions in the following
forms:

- Loans secured by mortgage of valuable papers.

- Discount valuable papers.

- Other forms of refinancing.

 2.4.2.3 Open market operations

Open market operations are a monetary policy tool that involves buying and selling valuable
papers to control the money supply. For example, when the Central Bank wants to increase
the money supply, it will buy treasury bills from commercial banks and the public. The
amount of money the Central Bank pays to commercial banks and the public increases the
banks' reserves. It is that excess reserves that will allow banks to increase lending. This results
in the amount of money supply in the market increasing in accordance with the Central Bank's
purpose.

Central banks' open market operations usually include two types. That is buying and selling
long-term valuable papers and buying and selling short-term valuable papers. In Vietnam,
open market operations are mainly carried out for valuable papers through bidding. Types of
valuable papers that are allowed to be traded in open market operations include:

- State Bank bills

- Government bonds (including: Treasury bills, Treasury bonds, Central project bonds,
Fatherland construction bonds...)

- Bonds are guaranteed by the Government

- Local Government Bonds

CHAPTER III: WHAT HAS BEEN HAPPENING IN THE REALITY?

3.1. SBV’s orientations of the monetary policy management.

The sudden occurrence of the COVID-19 pandemic There wasn't any warning signal Earlier,
breaking the proximity as an immediate supply chain, and That has a strong impact on the
demand of the platform economy. Nearly all backgrounds in Economics faced simultaneously
with a health crisis yet this has happened in the history of regulation tissue. Fast health crisis
Quickly spread to the economic field When governments are almost copper series of
application measures Deputy in health, typically lockdown and travel restrictions. The
number of sales Withdrawals from business increased strongly. In this context, the main
objectives of monetary policy are securing credit supply for the economy and business when
that cash flow for production and expenditure is interrupted.

Based on Resolution No. 124/2020/QH14 on November 11, 2020, at the Socio-Economic

Development Plan for 2021, the SBV has identified the objectives and the major measures
for the monetary policy management in 2021, specifically as follows:

3.1.1. Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the Vietnamese economy

 Through 35 years of innovation (1986 - 2020) from a backward, subsidized economy
to a modern socialist-oriented market economy, Vietnam has advanced. becoming a bright
spot of growth in the region and the world with many remarkable achievements. The
economy not only grew in scale but also improved in quality, and the people's material and
spiritual lives improved significantly. However, during more than three decades of
innovation, Vietnam's economy has been repeatedly affected by external shocks such as the
Asian financial crisis in 1997, the world financial crisis in 2008, and the epidemiological
shock in 2008. 2020. Unlike the previous two shocks, this Covid-19 shock is unprecedented,
affecting many areas of our country's economy, focusing on two factors: supply and demand.

3.1.1.1. Impact on demand

When the COVID-19 epidemic is gradually under control, the progress of

COVID-19 vaccination has achieved positive results, and the timely issuance of Resolution
No. 128/NQ-CP of the Government on October 11, 2021, has ensured Continuing to
implement the dual goal of "both disease prevention and socio-economic development", total
sales of goods and consumer service revenue have prospered.

Necessary goods and services: According to data from the General Statistics
Office, total sales of goods and consumer service revenue in the first 9 months of 2021
decreased by 7.1% compared to the same period last year, if excluding the price factor, it
decreased by 8.7% (same as the same period last year). period of 2020 decreased by 5.1%).
The food and food products group is estimated to reach 977.7 trillion VND, accounting for
the largest proportion among product groups with 35.2%, an increase of 5% over the same
period last year because this is an essential group of goods to serve the needs. People's daily
eating and drinking habits remained stable, partly due to the increase in food product prices
compared to the same period in 2020.

Accommodation and food services: Growth was better because localities began
to gradually relax distancing measures to realize the dual goal of both ensuring anti-epidemic
and socio-economic development, but the first 9 months of 2021 still decreased compared to
the same period last year. Revenue from accommodation and food services in 9 months of
2021 is estimated at VND 279.4 trillion, down 22.1% over the same period last year, of
which, revenue from accommodation services reached VND 19.5 trillion, down 37.1%; Food
service revenue reached VND 259.9 trillion, down 20.7%

Travel service industry: Continuing to be heavily affected by the COVID-19

epidemic, many provinces/cities operating travel tourism in September remained closed. In
the first 9 months of 2021, international visitors to Vietnam are estimated at 114.5 thousand
arrivals, down 97% over the same period last year. The reason is that Vietnam continues to
implement measures to prevent and control the COVID-19 epidemic, but has not opened
international tourism, so the number of visitors in the month is mainly foreign experts and
technical workers working on projects in Vietnam.
 For the field of investment capital: Implemented investment capital of the
whole society at current prices in the first 9 months of 2021 only increased by 0.4% over the
same period last year because many localities applied social distancing measures, disrupting
the production and supply chains of production, business and investment activities. Total
registered foreign investment capital in Vietnam as of September 20, 2021, reached 22.15
billion USD, up 4.4% over the same period last year.

For the import and export sector: Import and export turnover of many
commodities significantly affected by the COVID-19 epidemic continues to develop
complicatedly in the world, especially in Vietnam's leading trading partner countries.
Generally, in 9 months of this year, the total export and import turnover of goods still
maintained a high growth rate, reaching 483.17 billion USD, up 24.4% over the same period
last year, of which exports increased by 18.8%; imports increased by 30.5%. Generally, in the
first 9 months of 2021, the trade balance of goods had a trade deficit of 2.13 billion USD (the
same period last year had a trade surplus of 16.66 billion USD), of which the domestic
economic sector had a trade deficit of 21 billion USD; FDI sector (including crude oil) has a
trade surplus of 18.87 billion USD.

3.1.1.2. Impact on supply.

Supply of production materials: In the first months of 2021, our country

encountered difficulties in the supply of input materials and components for production. The
processing and manufacturing industries depend heavily on imports from China, South Korea,
and Japan - countries that are experiencing outbreaks. Border control measures to prevent
epidemics in these countries affect the source of input products for production, as well as the
consumption market, especially for the automotive, textile, and footwear industries, and the
electronics industry. In Vietnam, the supply of raw materials for production mostly comes
from China. Therefore, when the COVID-19 pandemic broke out, China closed factories for a
long time, causing difficulties for raw materials from China, and even interrupting other
modes of transportation, air, sea, or ministry due to epidemiological testing problems or high
transportation costs.

As of September 2021, the country had 9.1 million people aged 15 and above
negatively affected by the COVID-19 epidemic, including people who lost their jobs and had
to quit their jobs, take alternate leave, reduce working hours, and reduce income. Of which,
540,000 people lost their jobs, 2.8 million people had to temporarily suspend production and
business; 3.1 million people reported having their hours cut or forced to take time off work or
take rotating leave, and 6.5 million workers reported a reduction in income.

Many businesses, especially those with foreign experts, and foreign workers are
severely affected by the COVID-19 epidemic when labor supply is short, labor costs in this
period are also higher when businesses have to invest in more masks and antiseptic water take
safety measures at work to avoid infection.
 3.2. The impact of the COVID pandemic
on the revenue of businesses

3.1. Difficulties of businesses during the COVID-

19 pandemic

3.3. Cost burden on businesses today

3.1.2. Overall goal and mission

Managing the monetary policy proactively and flexibly in close coordination with the
fiscal policy and other macroeconomic policies to control inflation within the target level of
about 4% for 2021, supporting the macro-economic stability, contributing to the economic
growth recovery, and maintaining the stability of the forex and the money markets.

3.2. Monetary policy taken by SBV.

Monetary policy is the policy of using the instruments of credit and foreign exchange
operations to stabilize the currency. From there, stabilizes the economy and promotes growth
and development. Monetary policy is a macroeconomic policy implemented by the Central
Bank to achieve the Government's macroeconomic objectives such as price stability,
unemployment, economic growth, etc.

Firstly, the State Bank has made 03 consecutive adjustments to reduce interest rates,
ready to support liquidity for credit finance and create conditions for credit finance to access
capital sources from the State Bank at lower costs, thereby reducing lending interest rates to
support customers to recover production and business. The lending interest rate has decreased
by about 1% / year in 2020 and this trend of reducing interest rates continues for more than
half of 2021 with a decrease of about 0.55% / year (a total decrease of 1.55% / year compared
to before the epidemic).
 3.4. Inflation continues to rise, possibly 3.5. Domestic gasoline prices hit record
surpassing SBV's 4% ceiling in the in June
second half of 2022

Secondly, SBV has developed and implemented policies to restructure debt repayment
period, debt forgiveness, interest and fee reduction, and maintain debt groups as issued
Circular 01/2020/TT-NHNN dated March 13, 2020, Circular 03/2021/TT-NHNN dated
March 4, 2021, creating a legal framework for credit institutions to restructure debt repayment
terms, exempt and reduce interest fees, etc maintain the debt group, remove difficulties for
borrowers affected by the Covid-19 epidemic in all fields and industries. However, this is a
huge pressure for banking and finance in the short term as well as in the future. Because debt
relaxation, debt freezing, turning profitable assets into unprofitable, and increasing non-
profitable assets, means increasing the loss capacity of commercial banks and creating great
pressure for commercial banks to increase risk provisions, and financial buffers to ensure
solid finance

Thirdly, the State Bank of Vietnam continues to maintain a controlled loose monetary
policy to stabilize the value of the currency, stabilize prices, and maintain foreign currency
reserves that are not sharply reduced. This is quite a special monetary policy in the context of
many central banks with unprecedented monetary easing. More specifically, the State Bank
has required credit institutions to publicize and transparency procedures and conditions for
customers. The SBV, branches of provinces and cities shall immediately establish hotlines to
receive and handle promptly and thoroughly each case of entangled enterprises and strictly
handle cases of irresponsibility, causing difficulties and delays in supporting enterprises and
people

The Ministry of Finance has drafted and submitted to the Government for
promulgation a Decree on the extension of tax payment and land rent for those affected by the
COVID-19 epidemic to contribute to removing difficulties for production and business,
supporting small and medium enterprise income tax, tax exemption and reduction, fees,
charges, no interest, and late payment penalties. Strictly control credit for potentially risky
sectors, especially investment credit, real estate trading, and securities. Credit institutions
grant credit to contribute capital, purchase shares and invest in corporate bonds. Allocate
necessary capital to develop loan products for life, meet the legitimate needs of the people,
and contribute to limiting black credit.

3.3. Achievements from monetary policy changes

The COVID-19 pandemic has developed very complicatedly in the world. Whether vaccines
are available to prevent COVID-19, The deployment will take months, maybe even a year.
Outside ra, the variant of the Sars-CoV-2 virus is also a dilemma. By So, the evolution of the
epidemic will Unpredictable continuation in the world and the economic implications will
complicated continuation. Despite this, the the economy is gradually opening up, and the
economic recovery is ongoing, but is predicted not to be uniform across countries and
between fields. For Vietnam, the main Monetary books in 2021 need to Consider some of the
following points:

First, loose monetary policy liquid in menstrual stimulus packages Sacrifice can entail the
consequence of price increase in accumulation debt. This is going to be a challenge big awake
with Vietnam in the tournament recovery and growth segments. Therefore, the Bank's
measures State in 2020 as credit growth on demand, No shield, go hand in hand with An and
ensure the supply of capital for Priority areas, credit control used in potentially risky areas
RO, which should be maintained.

Secondly, in the restoration phase "In addition to the issue of credit demand, Ensuring credit
quality will also be a major challenge. The health of businesses will remain affected in 2021,
from that can compromise the substance amount of credit. In addition, these uncertainty
factors such as natural disasters in The period 2021 - 2025 will also Direct impact on quality
credit.

Thirdly, loose monetary policy, even super loose in many countries, possibly Risks to the
asset market such as real estate, and securities. Stay Vietnam, despite the bubble securities or
real estate has not yet appeared, but needs attention Some signs of hot growth of the stock
market in last time.

Fourth, in the previous period Eye, the maintenance of a policy Flexible currencies are
needed. However, in the medium term, challenges big with economies around the world
gender, as well as Vietnam will be Determining when to exit and make flexible monetary
policy; Accordingly, do not squeeze the source credit too soon which can photo affect the
speed of recovery, but nor do it too late to have This leads to increased risks Inflation or the
bubble of the asset markets.

Fifth, in 2021 - 2025, the Flow of Lines capital to Vietnam and domestically Vietnam's
Ministry of Economic Affairs will have many changes. If the economy is world gender
recovery during this period, Central banks can adjust interest rates, and will have an impact
touching capital flows. Events aligning global value chains have been and continue to have a
direct impact on receiving capital flows to Vietnam. The process of restructuring in the
country will directly impact the line credit in other areas placenta. The development of the
class middle class also impacts supply, and sentences and has a direct effect on the flow of
credit. So Flexible embolization between the main monetary books, exchange rates, and
financial policy lock to adjust, and stabilize the flow of capital for the economy and control
Inflation will continue to play an role important.

3.4. Compare

3.4.1. Foreign predictions

The IMF forecasts cumulative economic losses due to the epidemic will touch $9
trillion by the year 2021. The World Bank (WB) identifies growth in developing East Asia
and The Pacific Ocean will decline by 2.1% and the lower situation will drop to -0.5% by the
year 2020, compared to a forecast of 5.8% in 2019.

3.4.2. World monetary policy

To mitigate the negative impacts of the Covid-19 epidemic in the past period, look at
In general, all countries have continuously cut interest rates as well as launched support
packages Giant to revive the economy, the US Federal Reserve Bank (Fed): successive cuts
Reducing the key interest rate to 0% in just a few days, the first half of March 2020 was
accompanied by the following: huge money injection package amounting to trillions of
dollars. Bank of Korea (BoK): On March 16 Interest rates were 0.5 percentage points to a low
of 0.75%. Then, on May 28, the BoK fell again 0.25 percentage points to a record low.

Major central banks around the world have also restarted quantitative easing (QE)
programs on a scale many times higher than before to inject money directly into the economy:
On March 2, the Bank of Japan provided 500 billion yen ($4.6 billion) in support to ensure
sufficient liquidity in the system.

Postponed, cut taxes, fees, and massive stimulus packages to support the Parts of the
economy affected by the Covid-19 epidemic: UK announces economic bailout package The
£330 billion giant or 15% of GDP, urgently cut interest rates from 0.75% to an all-time low of
0.25%. In Asia, Singapore plans to reduce corporate income tax. Meanwhile, South Korea
provides cash to small companies that are struggling to pay.

Regional comparison, policy application: Reasonable borrowing interest rates, reduced

concentration of resources Deposit and lending interest rates, VIETNAM is one of the
countries with a decrease strongest operating interest rates (Philip -2%, Thailand -0.75%,
Malaysia -1.25%, Indonesia - 1.25%, India -1.15%, China -0.3%).

According to the World Bank, the Vietnamese Government has actively controlled all
situations so Vietnam's economy still stands firm against external shocks. The World Bank
said, with room policy in hand, Viet Nam is in a strong position to overcome the health crisis
and economics are happening. Vietnam is also in a strong position to benefit from the
agreement's Free trade with growth forecast to reach 7.5% in 2021 and around 6.5% in 2022
on the back of improved external demand, consolidated services, and productivity agricultural
exports gradually restored (WB, 2020).

CHAPTER IV: WHAT WOULD YOU SUGGEST TO IMPROVE THE

SITUATION

4.1 Monetary policy in developed countries

Facing the surprise of the Covid-19 pandemic, USA and many developed countries have to
face a shock as well as a decline and the risk of economic crisis. Federal Reserve System
(FED) along with central banks in developed countries has supported liquidity for the
financial sectors an also for the non-financial sectors such as providing credit for households
and non-financial firms because of isolate and lockdown that affected to the manufacturing
sector, supply and demand first,at the same time, FED also supports reducing bank interest
rates to 0.5% to stimulate and ensure normal transaction activities and cash flow
circulation,along with programs provided by central governments in developed countries to
support people, they have contributed to reducing and preventing the possibility of a financial
crisis.On a smaller scale, European State Banks and the Japanese State Bank have supported
currency swaps with other central states to provide their own currencies and facilitate
payments. At the same time, FED and central banks in developed countries have increased the
number of repurchase transactions while extending the maturity of these transactions.

World GDP growth rate in 2020 (during Covid-19 period)

The policies of the central government of developed countries have limited and reduced
tensions over the risk of economic crisis, contributing to stabilizing the macroeconomy.

4.2 Monetary policy in Viet Nam

In general, Vietnam's policies are a bit different from those of developed countries. Monetary
support policies in Vietnam mainly target the following main issues:

- Bank interest rates policies

- Credit policies

- Debt extension policies

- Policies to support people

- Other policies

4.2.1 Bank interest rate policy

- When the Covid pandemic struck, countries blockade and disease prevention policies
disrupted the global supply chain, affecting the macroeconomy, in which Vietnam was no
exception.Therefore, when the economy faces the risk of being severely affected due to the
economy slowing down with an increasing number of businesses going bankrupt and
withdrawing from the market. The State Bank of Vietnam quickly cut loan interest rates 3
times, reduce large-scale operating interest rates from 1.5-2.0%/year, to make a chance for
credit institutions to access loans with low interest rates, Encouraging cash flow as well as
contributing to controlling inflation rates and stabilizing Vietnam's macro economy.

Vietnam's lending interest rates in 2020

The reduction in operating interest rates of the State Bank of Vietnam is almost the largest in
the ASEAN region, this interest rates has contributed to stabilizing Vietnam's macro
economy. According to the State Bank of Viet Nam, as of December 21, 2020, outstanding
credit debt increased by 10.14% compared to 2019, this has contributed to controlling the
inflation rate of the Vietnamese economy because Vietnam is a highly open economy, the
devaluation of the domestic currency will cause the Vietnamese economy to face the risk of
high inflation, so the policy of cutting operating interest rates of the State Bank of Vietnam
has contributed to stabilizing the exchange rate and controlling inflation.

Operati
ng interest rates of some Asian central banks in 2020

- In order to support credit institutions, businesses and people to borrow, the State Bank has
also reduced interest rates on deposits of organizations and individuals at credit institutions,
foreign bank branches, the maximum interest rate applicable to demand deposits and deposits
with terms less than 1 month decreased from 0.8%/year to 0.5%/year, the maximum interest
rate applicable to deposits with terms from 1 month to less than 6 months decreased from
5.0%/year to 4.75%/year, the maximum interest rate applicable to deposits with terms from 1
month to less than 6 months at People's Credit Funds and Microfinance Institutions decreased
from 5.5%/year to 5.25%/year, interest rates on deposits with terms of 6 months or more are
set by credit institutions on the basis of market capital supply and demand. This policy has
supported credit institutions and businesses in accessing low-interest capital to help prevent
the market from freezing and stagnating.
 Growth situation after applying interest rate reduction policies.

- In addition to policies to cut operating interest rates, the State Bank of Vietnam also
encourages and supports commercial banks to restructure interest rates and loans to support
businesses and organizations facing difficulties due to the epidemic affect.

4.2.2 Credit policies

- For businesses and companies:

Vietnam Bank for Social Policy (VBSP) has supported businesses and companies affected by
the Covid-19 pandemic to qualify for preferential loans to pay salaries for employees
temporarily out of work due to the pandemic, total loan value is estimated at 16.2 trillion
VND. At the same time, the state bank restructures credit institutions with bad debts by
injecting liquidity to resolve bad debts.

- For individuals:

Preferential loan support for individuals and households to access consumer loans with low
interest rates as well as loosen lending policies.

- Thanks to supportive credit policies as well as bank offering many attractive credit policies
for borrowers, the economy has become more stable.

4.2.3 Debt extension policy

- The State supports 279 trillion VND to extend value-added tax, corporate income tax and
land rental fees for 5 months, postpone payment of personal income tax until the end of the
year, reduce land rent, reduce or exempt various fees and charges, corporate income tax cuts
for small and micro enterprises and increased personal income tax deductions. This policy
supports businesses and individuals to improve the economy.

4.2.4 Policies to support people

- The government offers subsidies to increase income, increase personal consumption, and
help increase demand. At the same time, the state has also reduced electricity and water bills,
rent, and supported social insurance costs for workers. 65 billion cash subsidy for vulnerable
workers, social security support, tuition reduction, and support for unemployed and workers.

4.2.5 Other policies

The State loosened monetary policies to increase money supply, as well as issued many
government bonds to support recovery policies. The state also exempts medical devices from
taxes, reduces business registration costs, allows companies and employees to pay social
insurance 12 months late without interest penalties, and the government also promotes the
goal of disbursement of 100% of public investment capital worth 686 trillion VND (nearly
9% of GDP).

4.2.6 Limitations in Vietnam's monetary support policies

- Due to the loosening of monetary policies in economic stimulus packages, businesses and
companies can take advantage, causing an increase in bad debt.

- The State's credit support policies have very strict requirements. To be able to meet the
requirements of the support policy, businesses must meet many proof reports and also spend a
large amount of money. This affects small and medium enterprises, which account for a large
proportion of businesses in Vietnam.

- Credit policies intended to support people also require a long period of time for approval,
which causes difficulties for people facing financial difficulties during the Covid-19
pandemic.

4.2.7 Some improvement measures

- In order to limit bad debt, the State Bank of Vietnam has increased credit according to
demand, without forcing, ensuring capital supply for priority areas, controlling credit for
potentially risky areas needs to continue to be maintained.

- Credit policies should aim to support small and medium-sized enterprises, making it easier
for small and medium-sized enterprises to borrow. Reduce strict reporting and proof
requirements as well as create more favorable policy conditions to support small and medium-
sized enterprises.

- Credit institutions need to balance to promptly meet loan needs, shorten application review
time, consider support policies to help people.
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Chính sách tiền tệ của Việt Nam trong thời kì dịch Covid: https://fbsp.ftu.edu.vn/chinh-sach-tien-te-
tai-viet-nam-trong-thoi-ky-dich-covid-19/
Chính sách tiền tệ trong phục hồi và tăng trưởng kinh tế hậu đại dịch Covid-19:
https://tapchinganhang.gov.vn/chinh-sach-tien-te-trong-phuc-hoi-va-tang-truong-kinh-te-hau-
dai-dich-covid-19.htm

Chính sách tiền tệ trong bối cảnh Covid-19 ở một số nước phát triển và Việt Nam:
https://tapchinganhang.gov.vn/chinh-sach-tien-te-trong-boi-canh-covid-19-o-mot-so-nuoc-
phat-trien-va-viet-nam.htm

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DÂN:https://www.gso.gov.vn/tin-tuc-khac/2020/12/nganh-ngan-hang-tich-cuc-giam-lai-suat-ho-tro-
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%A5t%20kinh%20doanh.