{

"cells": [
{
"cell_type": "markdown",
"id": "4caafec3",
"metadata": {},
"source": [
"# Probability 2: Loaded dice \n",
"\n",
"In this assignment you will be reinforcening your intuition about the concepts
covered in the lectures by taking the example with the dice to the next level. \n",
"\n",
"This assignment will not evaluate your coding skills but rather your intuition
and analytical skills. You can answer any of the exercise questions by any means
necessary, you can take the analytical route and compute the exact values or you
can alternatively create some code that simulates the situations at hand and
provide approximate values (grading will have some tolerance to allow approximate
solutions). It is up to you which route you want to take! \n",
"\n",
"Note that every exercise has a blank cell that you can use to make your
calculations, this cell has just been placed there for you convenience but **will
not be graded** so you can leave empty if you want to."
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": 1,
"id": "da0fcf2f",
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [],
"source": [
"import numpy as np\n",
"import pandas as pd\n",
"import seaborn as sns\n",
"import matplotlib.pyplot as plt\n",
"import utils"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "markdown",
"id": "4546a127",
"metadata": {},
"source": [
"## Some concept clarifications 🎲🎲🎲\n",
"\n",
"During this assignment you will be presented with various scenarios that
involve dice. Usually dice can have different numbers of sides and can be either
fair or loaded.\n",
"\n",
"- A fair dice has equal probability of landing on every side.\n",
"- A loaded dice does not have equal probability of landing on every side.
Usually one (or more) sides have a greater probability of showing up than the
rest.\n",
"\n",
"Let's get started!"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "markdown",
 "id": "c8f09f02",
"metadata": {},
"source": [
"## Exercise 1:\n",
"\n"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "markdown",
"id": "3510c610",
"metadata": {},
"source": [
"Given a 6-sided fair dice (all of the sides have equal probability of showing
up), compute the mean and variance for the probability distribution that models
said dice. The next figure shows you a visual represenatation of said
distribution:\n",
"\n",
"<img src=\"./images/fair_dice.png\" style=\"height: 300px;\"/>\n",
"\n",
"**Submission considerations:**\n",
"- Submit your answers as floating point numbers with three digits after the
decimal point\n",
"- Example: To submit the value of 1/4 enter 0.250"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "markdown",
"id": "5ee9b479",
"metadata": {},
"source": [
"Hints: \n",
"- You can use
[np.random.choice](https://numpy.org/doc/stable/reference/random/generated/
numpy.random.choice.html) to simulate a fair dice.\n",
"- You can use
[np.mean](https://numpy.org/doc/stable/reference/generated/numpy.mean.html) and
[np.var](https://numpy.org/doc/stable/reference/generated/numpy.var.html) to
compute the mean and variance of a numpy array."
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": 2,
"id": "df437e8e",
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [
{
"name": "stdout",
"output_type": "stream",
"text": [
"Mean: 3.499, Variance: 2.916\n"
]
}
],
"source": [
"# You can use this cell for your calculations (not graded)\n",
"np.random.seed(0)\n",
"dice_rolls = np.random.choice([1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6], size=1000000)\n",
"mean = np.mean(dice_rolls)\n",
 "variance = np.var(dice_rolls)\n",
"print(f\"Mean: {mean:.3f}, Variance: {variance:.3f}\")"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": 3,
"id": "db9477e7",
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [
{
"data": {
"application/vnd.jupyter.widget-view+json": {
"model_id": "395643493f7248c58c25dae1d466505e",
"version_major": 2,
"version_minor": 0
},
"text/plain": [
"FloatText(value=0.0, description='Mean:')"
]
},
"metadata": {},
"output_type": "display_data"
},
{
"data": {
"application/vnd.jupyter.widget-view+json": {
"model_id": "9a2f409e9bce4afea695c38de1b44303",
"version_major": 2,
"version_minor": 0
},
"text/plain": [
"FloatText(value=0.0, description='Variance:')"
]
},
"metadata": {},
"output_type": "display_data"
},
{
"data": {
"application/vnd.jupyter.widget-view+json": {
"model_id": "7bde44c96b63473fa2073f78d558250f",
"version_major": 2,
"version_minor": 0
},
"text/plain": [
"Button(button_style='success', description='Save your answer!',
style=ButtonStyle())"
]
},
"metadata": {},
"output_type": "display_data"
},
{
"data": {
"application/vnd.jupyter.widget-view+json": {
"model_id": "dbea8dca32c448ab8917594fee93a12e",
"version_major": 2,
"version_minor": 0
 },
"text/plain": [
"Output()"
]
},
"metadata": {},
"output_type": "display_data"
}
],
"source": [
"# Run this cell to submit your answer\n",
"utils.exercise_1()"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "markdown",
"id": "d43dcbbd",
"metadata": {},
"source": [
"## Exercise 2:\n",
"\n",
"Now suppose you are throwing the dice (same dice as in the previous exercise)
two times and recording the sum of each throw. Which of the following `probability
mass functions` will be the one you should get?\n",
"\n",
"<table><tr>\n",
"<td> <img src=\"./images/hist_sum_6_side.png\" style=\"height: 300px;\"/>
</td>\n",
"<td> <img src=\"./images/hist_sum_5_side.png\" style=\"height: 300px;\"/>
</td>\n",
"<td> <img src=\"./images/hist_sum_6_uf.png\" style=\"height: 300px;\"/> </td>\
n",
"</tr></table>\n"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "markdown",
"id": "605c58c0",
"metadata": {},
"source": [
"Hints: \n",
"- You can use numpy arrays to hold the results of many throws.\n",
"- You can sum to numpy arrays by using the `+` operator like this: `sum =
first_throw + second_throw`\n",
"- To simulate multiple throws of a dice you can use list comprehension or a
for loop"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": 4,
"id": "e9a8b2ed",
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [
{
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UbEq5vGXbhAAAAAElFTkSuQmCC\n",
"text/plain": [
"<Figure size 640x480 with 1 Axes>"
]
},
"metadata": {},
"output_type": "display_data"
}
],
"source": [
"# You can use this cell for your calculations (not graded)\n",
"np.random.seed(0)\n",
"num_trials = 1000000\n",
"first_throw = np.random.choice([1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6], size=num_trials)\n",
"second_throw = np.random.choice([1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6], size=num_trials)\n",
"sums = first_throw + second_throw\n",
"\n",
"plt.hist(sums, bins=range(2, 14), align='left', rwidth=0.8, density=True)\n",
"plt.xticks(range(2, 13, 2))\n",
"plt.xlabel('Sum of dice')\n",
"plt.ylabel('Probability')\n",
"plt.title('Histogram of sum')\n",
"plt.show()"
]
},
{
 "cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": 5,
"id": "d4d5dcf9",
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [
{
"data": {
"application/vnd.jupyter.widget-view+json": {
"model_id": "f26fe400caf54a6394dc8dc5abc5f751",
"version_major": 2,
"version_minor": 0
},
"text/plain": [
"ToggleButtons(description='Your answer:', options=('left', 'center',
'right'), value='left')"
]
},
"metadata": {},
"output_type": "display_data"
},
{
"data": {
"application/vnd.jupyter.widget-view+json": {
"model_id": "de794385f9e94357957e0efb36f07476",
"version_major": 2,
"version_minor": 0
},
"text/plain": [
"Button(button_style='success', description='Save your answer!',
style=ButtonStyle())"
]
},
"metadata": {},
"output_type": "display_data"
},
{
"data": {
"application/vnd.jupyter.widget-view+json": {
"model_id": "4c3017eeb8f742d8b51551cb99687887",
"version_major": 2,
"version_minor": 0
},
"text/plain": [
"Output()"
]
},
"metadata": {},
"output_type": "display_data"
}
],
"source": [
"# Run this cell to submit your answer\n",
"utils.exercise_2()"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "markdown",
"id": "adfb889c",
"metadata": {},
 "source": [
"## Exercise 3:\n",
"\n",
"Given a fair 4-sided dice, you throw it two times and record the sum. The
figure on the left shows the probabilities of the dice landing on each side and the
right figure the histogram of the sum. Fill out the probabilities of each sum
(notice that the distribution of the sum is symetrical so you only need to input 4
values in total):\n",
"\n",
"<img src=\"./images/4_side_hists.png\" style=\"height: 300px;\"/>\n",
"\n",
"**Submission considerations:**\n",
"- Submit your answers as floating point numbers with three digits after the
decimal point\n",
"- Example: To submit the value of 1/4 enter 0.250"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": 6,
"id": "342ca685",
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [
{
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"text/plain": [
"<Figure size 640x480 with 1 Axes>"
]
},
"metadata": {},
"output_type": "display_data"
}
],
"source": [
"# You can use this cell for your calculations (not graded)\n",
"np.random.seed(0)\n",
"num_trials = 1000000\n",
"first_throw = np.random.choice([1, 2, 3, 4], size=num_trials)\n",
"second_throw = np.random.choice([1, 2, 3, 4], size=num_trials)\n",
"sums = first_throw + second_throw\n",
"\n",
"plt.hist(sums, bins=range(2, 10), align='left', rwidth=0.8, density=True)\n",
"plt.xticks(range(2, 9))\n",
"plt.xlabel('Sum of dice')\n",
"plt.ylabel('Probability')\n",
"plt.title('Histogram of sum')\n",
"plt.show()"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": 7,
"id": "e0a24beb",
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [
{
"data": {
"application/vnd.jupyter.widget-view+json": {
"model_id": "47977d77817546c2a4da2c832ae7acb6",
"version_major": 2,
"version_minor": 0
},
"text/plain": [
"FloatText(value=0.0, description='P for sum=2|8',
style=DescriptionStyle(description_width='initial'))"
]
},
"metadata": {},
"output_type": "display_data"
},
{
"data": {
"application/vnd.jupyter.widget-view+json": {
 "model_id": "f576bd50366a416499b7adc2d2e8da9f",
"version_major": 2,
"version_minor": 0
},
"text/plain": [
"FloatText(value=0.0, description='P for sum=3|7:',
style=DescriptionStyle(description_width='initial'))"
]
},
"metadata": {},
"output_type": "display_data"
},
{
"data": {
"application/vnd.jupyter.widget-view+json": {
"model_id": "7d1fc687d2da4c44b6ef98176b508b91",
"version_major": 2,
"version_minor": 0
},
"text/plain": [
"FloatText(value=0.0, description='P for sum=4|6:',
style=DescriptionStyle(description_width='initial'))"
]
},
"metadata": {},
"output_type": "display_data"
},
{
"data": {
"application/vnd.jupyter.widget-view+json": {
"model_id": "1244e3b8c57846cfaed1347bd214a181",
"version_major": 2,
"version_minor": 0
},
"text/plain": [
"FloatText(value=0.0, description='P for sum=5:',
style=DescriptionStyle(description_width='initial'))"
]
},
"metadata": {},
"output_type": "display_data"
},
{
"data": {
"application/vnd.jupyter.widget-view+json": {
"model_id": "f41706179b0a4dc7b2ff97982b68f552",
"version_major": 2,
"version_minor": 0
},
"text/plain": [
"Button(button_style='success', description='Save your answer!',
style=ButtonStyle())"
]
},
"metadata": {},
"output_type": "display_data"
},
{
"data": {
 "application/vnd.jupyter.widget-view+json": {
"model_id": "d88cfd196c8f48f19f04470543052347",
"version_major": 2,
"version_minor": 0
},
"text/plain": [
"Output()"
]
},
"metadata": {},
"output_type": "display_data"
}
],
"source": [
"# Run this cell to submit your answer\n",
"utils.exercise_3()"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "markdown",
"id": "108837bd",
"metadata": {},
"source": [
"## Exercise 4:\n",
"\n",
"Using the same scenario as in the previous exercise. Compute the mean and
variance of the sum of the two throws and the covariance between the first and the
second throw:\n",
"\n",
"<img src=\"./images/4_sided_hist_no_prob.png\" style=\"height: 300px;\"/>\n",
"\n",
"\n",
"Hints:\n",
"- You can use
[np.cov](https://numpy.org/doc/stable/reference/generated/numpy.cov.html) to
compute the covariance of two numpy arrays (this may not be needed for this
particular exercise)."
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": 8,
"id": "f4eadc3c",
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [
{
"name": "stdout",
"output_type": "stream",
"text": [
"Mean of sum: 5.000\n",
"Variance of sum: 2.499\n",
"Covariance between first and second throw: -0.001\n"
]
}
],
"source": [
"# You can use this cell for your calculations (not graded)\n",
"np.random.seed(0)\n",
"num_trials = 1000000\n",
 "first_throw = np.random.choice([1, 2, 3, 4], size=num_trials)\n",
"second_throw = np.random.choice([1, 2, 3, 4], size=num_trials)\n",
"sums = first_throw + second_throw\n",
"\n",
"print(f\"Mean of sum: {np.mean(sums):.3f}\")\n",
"print(f\"Variance of sum: {np.var(sums):.3f}\")\n",
"print(f\"Covariance between first and second throw: {np.cov(first_throw,
second_throw)[0, 1]:.3f}\")"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": 9,
"id": "4e662b9b",
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [
{
"data": {
"application/vnd.jupyter.widget-view+json": {
"model_id": "6dad6dd34611453aab0722296342f0fe",
"version_major": 2,
"version_minor": 0
},
"text/plain": [
"FloatText(value=0.0, description='Mean:')"
]
},
"metadata": {},
"output_type": "display_data"
},
{
"data": {
"application/vnd.jupyter.widget-view+json": {
"model_id": "ab91b014e0d4485b858f22a39fc171f2",
"version_major": 2,
"version_minor": 0
},
"text/plain": [
"FloatText(value=0.0, description='Variance:')"
]
},
"metadata": {},
"output_type": "display_data"
},
{
"data": {
"application/vnd.jupyter.widget-view+json": {
"model_id": "cbf34ec9760a437b9e3a787d502e2929",
"version_major": 2,
"version_minor": 0
},
"text/plain": [
"FloatText(value=0.0, description='Covariance:')"
]
},
"metadata": {},
"output_type": "display_data"
},
{
 "data": {
"application/vnd.jupyter.widget-view+json": {
"model_id": "de3d16c3813943a492951de7dea87dfa",
"version_major": 2,
"version_minor": 0
},
"text/plain": [
"Button(button_style='success', description='Save your answer!',
style=ButtonStyle())"
]
},
"metadata": {},
"output_type": "display_data"
},
{
"data": {
"application/vnd.jupyter.widget-view+json": {
"model_id": "3ef1e07af52a46d6a4d5d44c813e17c1",
"version_major": 2,
"version_minor": 0
},
"text/plain": [
"Output()"
]
},
"metadata": {},
"output_type": "display_data"
}
],
"source": [
"# Run this cell to submit your answer\n",
"utils.exercise_4()"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "markdown",
"id": "714e099b",
"metadata": {},
"source": [
"## Exercise 5:\n",
"\n",
"\n",
"Now suppose you are have a loaded 4-sided dice (it is loaded so that it lands
twice as often on side 2 compared to the other sides): \n",
"\n",
"\n",
"<img src=\"./images/4_side_uf.png\" style=\"height: 300px;\"/>\n",
"\n",
"You are throwing it two times and recording the sum of each throw. Which of
the following `probability mass functions` will be the one you should get?\n",
"\n",
"<table><tr>\n",
"<td> <img src=\"./images/hist_sum_4_4l.png\" style=\"height: 300px;\"/> </td>\
n",
"<td> <img src=\"./images/hist_sum_4_3l.png\" style=\"height: 300px;\"/> </td>\
n",
"<td> <img src=\"./images/hist_sum_4_uf.png\" style=\"height: 300px;\"/> </td>\
n",
"</tr></table>"
 ]
},
{
"cell_type": "markdown",
"id": "ecb27c1b",
"metadata": {},
"source": [
"Hints: \n",
"- You can use the `p` parameter of
[np.random.choice](https://numpy.org/doc/stable/reference/random/generated/
numpy.random.choice.html) to simulate a loaded dice."
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": 10,
"id": "a35573ec",
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [
{
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II=\n",
"text/plain": [
"<Figure size 640x480 with 1 Axes>"
]
},
"metadata": {},
"output_type": "display_data"
}
],
"source": [
"# You can use this cell for your calculations (not graded)\n",
"np.random.seed(0)\n",
"num_trials = 1000000\n",
"first_throw = np.random.choice([1, 2, 3, 4], p=[1/5, 2/5, 1/5, 1/5],
size=num_trials)\n",
"second_throw = np.random.choice([1, 2, 3, 4], p=[1/5, 2/5, 1/5, 1/5],
size=num_trials)\n",
"sums = first_throw + second_throw\n",
"\n",
"plt.hist(sums, bins=range(2, 10), align='left', rwidth=0.8, density=True)\n",
"plt.xticks(range(2, 9))\n",
"plt.xlabel('Sum of dice')\n",
"plt.ylabel('Probability')\n",
"plt.title('Histogram of sum')\n",
"plt.show()"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": 11,
"id": "3104e647",
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [
{
"data": {
"application/vnd.jupyter.widget-view+json": {
"model_id": "0af24b755281400592aee22bbb601cae",
"version_major": 2,
"version_minor": 0
},
"text/plain": [
"ToggleButtons(description='Your answer:', options=('left', 'center',
'right'), value='left')"
]
},
"metadata": {},
"output_type": "display_data"
},
{
 "data": {
"application/vnd.jupyter.widget-view+json": {
"model_id": "0897be884f634b94a0a5e37f05c05d96",
"version_major": 2,
"version_minor": 0
},
"text/plain": [
"Button(button_style='success', description='Save your answer!',
style=ButtonStyle())"
]
},
"metadata": {},
"output_type": "display_data"
},
{
"data": {
"application/vnd.jupyter.widget-view+json": {
"model_id": "9dc080702992482eaea077d75ec36778",
"version_major": 2,
"version_minor": 0
},
"text/plain": [
"Output()"
]
},
"metadata": {},
"output_type": "display_data"
}
],
"source": [
"# Run this cell to submit your answer\n",
"utils.exercise_5()"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "markdown",
"id": "0d0f3429",
"metadata": {},
"source": [
"## Exercise 6:\n",
"\n",
"You have a 6-sided dice that is loaded so that it lands twice as often on side
3 compared to the other sides:\n",
"\n",
"<img src=\"./images/loaded_6_side.png\" style=\"height: 300px;\"/>\n",
"\n",
"You record the sum of throwing it twice. What is the highest value (of the
sum) that will yield a cumulative probability lower or equal to 0.5?\n",
"\n",
"<img src=\"./images/loaded_6_cdf.png\" style=\"height: 300px;\"/>\n",
"\n",
"Hints:\n",
"- The probability of side 3 is equal to $\\frac{2}{7}$"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": 12,
"id": "10feaaa8",
 "metadata": {},
"outputs": [
{
"name": "stdout",
"output_type": "stream",
"text": [
"The highest value (of the sum) that will yield a cumulative probability
lower or equal to 0.5 is 6\n"
]
}
],
"source": [
"# You can use this cell for your calculations (not graded)\n",
"np.random.seed(0)\n",
"num_trials = 1000000\n",
"dice = [1,2,3,4,5,6]\n",
"probs = [1/7, 1/7, 2/7, 1/7, 1/7, 1/7]\n",
"\n",
"first_throw = np.random.choice(dice, p=probs, size=num_trials)\n",
"second_throw = np.random.choice(dice, p=probs, size=num_trials)\n",
"\n",
"sums = first_throw + second_throw\n",
"\n",
"for i in range(2, 13):\n",
" cdf = (sums <= i).mean()\n",
" if cdf > 0.5:\n",
" break\n",
"\n",
"print(\"The highest value (of the sum) that will yield a cumulative
probability lower or equal to 0.5 is\", i-1)"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": 13,
"id": "963e5763",
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [
{
"data": {
"application/vnd.jupyter.widget-view+json": {
"model_id": "b09a071ff6574c129670027434608915",
"version_major": 2,
"version_minor": 0
},
"text/plain": [
"IntSlider(value=2, continuous_update=False, description='Sum:', max=12,
min=2)"
]
},
"metadata": {},
"output_type": "display_data"
},
{
"data": {
"application/vnd.jupyter.widget-view+json": {
"model_id": "7102a00fe4d44b84a770a2fe2248191f",
"version_major": 2,
"version_minor": 0
 },
"text/plain": [
"Button(button_style='success', description='Save your answer!',
style=ButtonStyle())"
]
},
"metadata": {},
"output_type": "display_data"
},
{
"data": {
"application/vnd.jupyter.widget-view+json": {
"model_id": "4fd3f9958f174c7ea3caaf802555bd4b",
"version_major": 2,
"version_minor": 0
},
"text/plain": [
"Output()"
]
},
"metadata": {},
"output_type": "display_data"
}
],
"source": [
"# Run this cell to submit your answer\n",
"utils.exercise_6()"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "markdown",
"id": "f6684426",
"metadata": {},
"source": [
"## Exercise 7:\n",
"\n",
"Given a 6-sided fair dice you try a new game. You only throw the dice a second
time if the result of the first throw is **lower** or equal to 3. Which of the
following `probability mass functions` will be the one you should get given this
new constraint?\n",
"\n",
"<table><tr>\n",
"<td> <img src=\"./images/6_sided_cond_green.png\" style=\"height: 250px;\"/>
</td>\n",
"<td> <img src=\"./images/6_sided_cond_blue.png\" style=\"height: 250px;\"/>
</td>\n",
"<td> <img src=\"./images/6_sided_cond_red.png\" style=\"height: 250px;\"/>
</td>\n",
"<td> <img src=\"./images/6_sided_cond_brown.png\" style=\"height: 250px;\"/>
</td>\n",
"\n",
"</tr></table>\n",
"\n",
"Hints:\n",
"- You can simulate the second throws as a numpy array and then make the values
that met a certain criteria equal to 0 by using
[np.where](https://numpy.org/doc/stable/reference/generated/numpy.where.html)"
]
},
 {
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": 14,
"id": "9e64d178",
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [
{
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YII=\n",
"text/plain": [
"<Figure size 640x480 with 1 Axes>"
]
},
"metadata": {},
"output_type": "display_data"
}
],
"source": [
"# You can use this cell for your calculations (not graded)\n",
"np.random.seed(0)\n",
"num_trials = 1000000\n",
"first_throw = np.random.choice([1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6], size=num_trials)\n",
"second_throw = np.random.choice([1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6], size=num_trials)\n",
"\n",
"second_throw = np.where(first_throw <= 3, second_throw, 0)\n",
"final_outcomes = first_throw + second_throw\n",
"\n",
"plt.hist(final_outcomes, bins=range(2, 11), align='left', rwidth=0.8,
density=True)\n",
"plt.xticks(range(2, 10))\n",
"plt.xlabel('Sum of dice')\n",
"plt.ylabel('Probability')\n",
"plt.title('Histogram of sum')\n",
"plt.show()"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": 15,
"id": "82a4db40",
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [
{
"data": {
"application/vnd.jupyter.widget-view+json": {
"model_id": "1944748e06004c0fa5104c3936835e1e",
"version_major": 2,
"version_minor": 0
},
"text/plain": [
"ToggleButtons(description='Your answer:', options=('left-most', 'left-
center', 'right-center', 'right-most'), …"
]
},
"metadata": {},
"output_type": "display_data"
},
{
"data": {
"application/vnd.jupyter.widget-view+json": {
"model_id": "ad78254c8465422085abaade527ab201",
"version_major": 2,
"version_minor": 0
},
"text/plain": [
 "Button(button_style='success', description='Save your answer!',
style=ButtonStyle())"
]
},
"metadata": {},
"output_type": "display_data"
},
{
"data": {
"application/vnd.jupyter.widget-view+json": {
"model_id": "e25c36f46f5b4859b2fb5b1ebf88eccf",
"version_major": 2,
"version_minor": 0
},
"text/plain": [
"Output()"
]
},
"metadata": {},
"output_type": "display_data"
}
],
"source": [
"# Run this cell to submit your answer\n",
"utils.exercise_7()"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "markdown",
"id": "ba973eaf",
"metadata": {},
"source": [
"## Exercise 8:\n",
"\n",
"Given the same scenario as in the previous exercise but with the twist that
you only throw the dice a second time if the result of the first throw is
**greater** or equal to 3. Which of the following `probability mass functions` will
be the one you should get given this new constraint?\n",
"\n",
"<table><tr>\n",
"<td> <img src=\"./images/6_sided_cond_green2.png\" style=\"height: 250px;\"/>
</td>\n",
"<td> <img src=\"./images/6_sided_cond_blue2.png\" style=\"height: 250px;\"/>
</td>\n",
"<td> <img src=\"./images/6_sided_cond_red2.png\" style=\"height: 250px;\"/>
</td>\n",
"<td> <img src=\"./images/6_sided_cond_brown2.png\" style=\"height: 250px;\"/>
</td>\n",
"\n",
"</tr></table>\n"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": 16,
"id": "4d25300f",
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [
{
 "data": {
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"text/plain": [
"<Figure size 640x480 with 1 Axes>"
]
},
"metadata": {},
"output_type": "display_data"
}
],
"source": [
"# You can use this cell for your calculations (not graded)\n",
"np.random.seed(0)\n",
 "num_trials = 1000000\n",
"first_throw = np.random.choice([1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6], size=num_trials)\n",
"second_throw = np.random.choice([1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6], size=num_trials)\n",
"\n",
"second_throw = np.where(first_throw >= 3, second_throw, 0)\n",
"final_outcomes = first_throw + second_throw\n",
"\n",
"plt.hist(final_outcomes, bins=range(1, 14), align='left', rwidth=0.8,
density=True)\n",
"plt.xticks(range(2, 13))\n",
"plt.xlabel('Sum of dice')\n",
"plt.ylabel('Probability')\n",
"plt.title('Histogram of sum')\n",
"plt.show()"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": 17,
"id": "33bb9fd2",
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [
{
"data": {
"application/vnd.jupyter.widget-view+json": {
"model_id": "b78103c55d4d4133bd6e468638bd32ab",
"version_major": 2,
"version_minor": 0
},
"text/plain": [
"ToggleButtons(description='Your answer:', options=('left-most', 'left-
center', 'right-center', 'right-most'), …"
]
},
"metadata": {},
"output_type": "display_data"
},
{
"data": {
"application/vnd.jupyter.widget-view+json": {
"model_id": "b40074764c9f4bc79e6164831df08455",
"version_major": 2,
"version_minor": 0
},
"text/plain": [
"Button(button_style='success', description='Save your answer!',
style=ButtonStyle())"
]
},
"metadata": {},
"output_type": "display_data"
},
{
"data": {
"application/vnd.jupyter.widget-view+json": {
"model_id": "25021b2ce9f0426995eaa245497c67af",
"version_major": 2,
"version_minor": 0
},
 "text/plain": [
"Output()"
]
},
"metadata": {},
"output_type": "display_data"
}
],
"source": [
"# Run this cell to submit your answer\n",
"utils.exercise_8()"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "markdown",
"id": "017e9b22",
"metadata": {},
"source": [
"## Exercise 9:\n",
"\n",
"Given a n-sided fair dice. You throw it twice and record the sum. How does
increasing the number of sides `n` of the dice impact the mean and variance of the
sum and the covariance of the joint distribution?"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": 18,
"id": "645a9b74",
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [
{
"name": "stdout",
"output_type": "stream",
"text": [
"For a 2-sided dice:\n",
"Mean of the sum: 3.002\n",
"Variance of the sum: 0.497\n",
"Covariance of the joint distribution: -0.002\n",
"\n",
"For a 3-sided dice:\n",
"Mean of the sum: 4.000\n",
"Variance of the sum: 1.331\n",
"Covariance of the joint distribution: -0.001\n",
"\n",
"For a 4-sided dice:\n",
"Mean of the sum: 5.003\n",
"Variance of the sum: 2.510\n",
"Covariance of the joint distribution: 0.003\n",
"\n",
"For a 5-sided dice:\n",
"Mean of the sum: 6.014\n",
"Variance of the sum: 4.003\n",
"Covariance of the joint distribution: 0.002\n",
"\n",
"For a 6-sided dice:\n",
"Mean of the sum: 7.012\n",
"Variance of the sum: 5.820\n",
"Covariance of the joint distribution: -0.001\n",
 "\n",
"For a 7-sided dice:\n",
"Mean of the sum: 8.011\n",
"Variance of the sum: 7.934\n",
"Covariance of the joint distribution: -0.024\n",
"\n",
"For a 8-sided dice:\n",
"Mean of the sum: 9.007\n",
"Variance of the sum: 10.492\n",
"Covariance of the joint distribution: 0.012\n",
"\n",
"For a 9-sided dice:\n",
"Mean of the sum: 10.010\n",
"Variance of the sum: 13.225\n",
"Covariance of the joint distribution: -0.040\n",
"\n",
"For a 10-sided dice:\n",
"Mean of the sum: 11.020\n",
"Variance of the sum: 16.428\n",
"Covariance of the joint distribution: -0.018\n",
"\n"
]
}
],
"source": [
"# You can use this cell for your calculations (not graded)\n",
"def simulate_dice_throws(n, num_trials=100000):\n",
" np.random.seed(0)\n",
" first_throw = np.random.choice(np.arange(1, n+1), size=num_trials)\n",
" second_throw = np.random.choice(np.arange(1, n+1), size=num_trials)\n",
" sum_throws = first_throw + second_throw\n",
"\n",
" mean = np.mean(sum_throws)\n",
" variance = np.var(sum_throws)\n",
" covariance = np.cov(first_throw, second_throw)[0][1]\n",
"\n",
" return mean, variance, covariance\n",
"\n",
"for n in range(2, 11):\n",
" mean, variance, covariance = simulate_dice_throws(n)\n",
" print(f\"For a {n}-sided dice:\")\n",
" print(f\"Mean of the sum: {mean:.3f}\")\n",
" print(f\"Variance of the sum: {variance:.3f}\")\n",
" print(f\"Covariance of the joint distribution: {covariance:.3f}\\n\")"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": 19,
"id": "907412da",
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [
{
"name": "stdout",
"output_type": "stream",
"text": [
"As the number of sides in the die increases:\n"
]
},
 {
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"model_id": "b67d3cf1a785454f8a228499aa246633",
"version_major": 2,
"version_minor": 0
},
"text/plain": [
"ToggleButtons(description='The mean of the sum:', options=('stays the
same', 'increases', 'decreases'), value=…"
]
},
"metadata": {},
"output_type": "display_data"
},
{
"data": {
"application/vnd.jupyter.widget-view+json": {
"model_id": "742384c0e29744bc9b62ab41d5fa0513",
"version_major": 2,
"version_minor": 0
},
"text/plain": [
"ToggleButtons(description='The variance of the sum:', options=('stays the
same', 'increases', 'decreases'), va…"
]
},
"metadata": {},
"output_type": "display_data"
},
{
"data": {
"application/vnd.jupyter.widget-view+json": {
"model_id": "98d96e90803d41f9ac7315e4f9a7d0b3",
"version_major": 2,
"version_minor": 0
},
"text/plain": [
"ToggleButtons(description='The covariance of the joint distribution:',
options=('stays the same', 'increases',…"
]
},
"metadata": {},
"output_type": "display_data"
},
{
"data": {
"application/vnd.jupyter.widget-view+json": {
"model_id": "e93ac2af51014ad4899a9ac867780fe1",
"version_major": 2,
"version_minor": 0
},
"text/plain": [
"Button(button_style='success', description='Save your answer!',
style=ButtonStyle())"
]
},
"metadata": {},
"output_type": "display_data"
 },
{
"data": {
"application/vnd.jupyter.widget-view+json": {
"model_id": "1597fc72f95b4040ad5085def6650900",
"version_major": 2,
"version_minor": 0
},
"text/plain": [
"Output()"
]
},
"metadata": {},
"output_type": "display_data"
}
],
"source": [
"# Run this cell to submit your answer\n",
"utils.exercise_9()"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "markdown",
"id": "fcf9b3ac",
"metadata": {},
"source": [
"## Exercise 10:\n",
"\n",
"Given a 6-sided loaded dice. You throw it twice and record the sum. Which of
the following statemets is true?"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": 20,
"id": "008c5858",
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [
{
"name": "stdout",
"output_type": "stream",
"text": [
"For a 6-sided dice with side 1 loaded:\n",
"Mean of the sum: 6.298\n",
"Variance of the sum: 6.565\n",
"\n",
"For a 6-sided dice with side 2 loaded:\n",
"Mean of the sum: 6.581\n",
"Variance of the sum: 5.595\n",
"\n",
"For a 6-sided dice with side 3 loaded:\n",
"Mean of the sum: 6.864\n",
"Variance of the sum: 5.092\n",
"\n",
"For a 6-sided dice with side 4 loaded:\n",
"Mean of the sum: 7.151\n",
"Variance of the sum: 5.093\n",
"\n",
"For a 6-sided dice with side 5 loaded:\n",
 "Mean of the sum: 7.436\n",
"Variance of the sum: 5.588\n",
"\n",
"For a 6-sided dice with side 6 loaded:\n",
"Mean of the sum: 7.725\n",
"Variance of the sum: 6.579\n",
"\n"
]
}
],
"source": [
"# You can use this cell for your calculations (not graded)\n",
"def simulate_loaded_dice(n, loaded_side, num_trials=100000):\n",
" np.random.seed(0)\n",
" p = [2/7 if i == loaded_side else 1/7 for i in range(1, n+1)]\n",
" first_throw = np.random.choice(np.arange(1, n+1), p=p, size=num_trials)\
n",
" second_throw = np.random.choice(np.arange(1, n+1), p=p, size=num_trials)\
n",
" sum_throws = first_throw + second_throw\n",
"\n",
" mean = np.mean(sum_throws)\n",
" variance = np.var(sum_throws)\n",
"\n",
" return mean, variance\n",
"\n",
"for loaded_side in range(1, 7):\n",
" mean, variance = simulate_loaded_dice(6, loaded_side)\n",
" print(f\"For a 6-sided dice with side {loaded_side} loaded:\")\n",
" print(f\"Mean of the sum: {mean:.3f}\")\n",
" print(f\"Variance of the sum: {variance:.3f}\\n\")"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": 21,
"id": "99373567",
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [
{
"data": {
"application/vnd.jupyter.widget-view+json": {
"model_id": "714480702dcb469f93f857b2632106cc",
"version_major": 2,
"version_minor": 0
},
"text/plain": [
"RadioButtons(layout=Layout(width='max-content'), options=('the mean and
variance is the same regardless of whi…"
]
},
"metadata": {},
"output_type": "display_data"
},
{
"data": {
"application/vnd.jupyter.widget-view+json": {
"model_id": "b461913e196446e5a6eff5aff1b804d5",
"version_major": 2,
 "version_minor": 0
},
"text/plain": [
"Button(button_style='success', description='Save your answer!',
style=ButtonStyle())"
]
},
"metadata": {},
"output_type": "display_data"
},
{
"data": {
"application/vnd.jupyter.widget-view+json": {
"model_id": "051b7fa513c344ccb21fb57828d2c6a4",
"version_major": 2,
"version_minor": 0
},
"text/plain": [
"Output()"
]
},
"metadata": {},
"output_type": "display_data"
}
],
"source": [
"# Run this cell to submit your answer\n",
"utils.exercise_10()"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "markdown",
"id": "0a84afef",
"metadata": {},
"source": [
"## Exercise 11:\n",
"\n",
"Given a fair n-sided dice. You throw it twice and record the sum but the
second throw depends on the result of the first one such as in exercises 7 and 8.
Which of the following statements is true?"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": 22,
"id": "7cb6ad84",
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [
{
"name": "stdout",
"output_type": "stream",
"text": [
"Covariance when second throw is made if first throw is <= 3: -2.623\n",
"Covariance when second throw is made if first throw is >= 3: 2.333\n"
]
}
],
"source": [
"# You can use this cell for your calculations (not graded)\n",
 "np.random.seed(0)\n",
"num_trials = 1000000\n",
"\n",
"first_throw = np.random.choice(range(1, 7), size=num_trials)\n",
"\n",
"second_throw1 = np.where(first_throw <= 3, np.random.choice(range(1, 7),
size=num_trials), 0)\n",
"cov1 = np.cov(first_throw, second_throw1)[0, 1]\n",
"\n",
"second_throw2 = np.where(first_throw >= 3, np.random.choice(range(1, 7),
size=num_trials), 0)\n",
"cov2 = np.cov(first_throw, second_throw2)[0, 1]\n",
"\n",
"print(f\"Covariance when second throw is made if first throw is <= 3:
{cov1:.3f}\")\n",
"print(f\"Covariance when second throw is made if first throw is >= 3:
{cov2:.3f}\")"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": 23,
"id": "9b048c03",
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [
{
"data": {
"application/vnd.jupyter.widget-view+json": {
"model_id": "ae5a8b4b8ccd480686d27ab5c580304f",
"version_major": 2,
"version_minor": 0
},
"text/plain": [
"RadioButtons(layout=Layout(width='max-content'), options=('changing the
direction of the inequality will chang…"
]
},
"metadata": {},
"output_type": "display_data"
},
{
"data": {
"application/vnd.jupyter.widget-view+json": {
"model_id": "ca5d16098e9c4740b4e09eab657ed470",
"version_major": 2,
"version_minor": 0
},
"text/plain": [
"Button(button_style='success', description='Save your answer!',
style=ButtonStyle())"
]
},
"metadata": {},
"output_type": "display_data"
},
{
"data": {
"application/vnd.jupyter.widget-view+json": {
"model_id": "a9a02ba00ce34e4f9b785fffec880992",
 "version_major": 2,
"version_minor": 0
},
"text/plain": [
"Output()"
]
},
"metadata": {},
"output_type": "display_data"
}
],
"source": [
"# Run this cell to submit your answer\n",
"utils.exercise_11()"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "markdown",
"id": "f8a1a8a3",
"metadata": {},
"source": [
"## Exercise 12:\n",
"\n",
"Given a n-sided dice (could be fair or not). You throw it twice and record the
sum (there is no dependance between the throws). If you are only given the
histogram of the sums can you use it to know which are the probabilities of the
dice landing on each side?"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": 24,
"id": "b42149cf",
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [
{
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"text/plain": [
"<Figure size 640x480 with 1 Axes>"
]
},
"metadata": {},
"output_type": "display_data"
}
],
"source": [
"# You can use this cell for your calculations (not graded)\n",
"import numpy as np\n",
"import matplotlib.pyplot as plt\n",
"\n",
"def simulate_dice_throws(n, num_trials=100000):\n",
" np.random.seed(0)\n",
" first_throw = np.random.choice(np.arange(1, n+1), size=num_trials)\n",
" second_throw = np.random.choice(np.arange(1, n+1), size=num_trials)\n",
" sum_throws = first_throw + second_throw\n",
"\n",
" plt.hist(sum_throws, bins=np.arange(1.5, 2*n+1.5), density=True,
alpha=0.7)\n",
" plt.title(\"Histogram of Sum\")\n",
" plt.xlabel(\"Sum of dice\")\n",
" plt.ylabel(\"Probability\")\n",
" plt.show()\n",
"\n",
"n = 6\n",
"simulate_dice_throws(n)"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": 25,
"id": "33a2e4d9",
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [
 {
"data": {
"application/vnd.jupyter.widget-view+json": {
"model_id": "ec09aca0831447999a97f31daa877680",
"version_major": 2,
"version_minor": 0
},
"text/plain": [
"RadioButtons(layout=Layout(width='max-content'), options=('yes, but only if
one of the sides is loaded', 'no, …"
]
},
"metadata": {},
"output_type": "display_data"
},
{
"data": {
"application/vnd.jupyter.widget-view+json": {
"model_id": "9362c7078e204c1bb1410c0a9d687f84",
"version_major": 2,
"version_minor": 0
},
"text/plain": [
"Button(button_style='success', description='Save your answer!',
style=ButtonStyle())"
]
},
"metadata": {},
"output_type": "display_data"
},
{
"data": {
"application/vnd.jupyter.widget-view+json": {
"model_id": "7b5b563faf1e4b67ab7920a0aaf6027d",
"version_major": 2,
"version_minor": 0
},
"text/plain": [
"Output()"
]
},
"metadata": {},
"output_type": "display_data"
}
],
"source": [
"# Run this cell to submit your answer\n",
"utils.exercise_12()"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "markdown",
"id": "1635ca7c",
"metadata": {},
"source": [
"## Before Submitting Your Assignment\n",
"\n",
"Run the next cell to check that you have answered all of the exercises"
]
 },
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": 26,
"id": "c6822278",
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [
{
"name": "stdout",
"output_type": "stream",
"text": [
"All answers saved, you can submit the assignment for grading!\n"
]
}
],
"source": [
"utils.check_submissions()"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "markdown",
"id": "5286008f",
"metadata": {},
"source": [
"**Congratulations on finishing this assignment!**\n",
"\n",
"During this assignment you tested your knowledge on probability distributions,
descriptive statistics and visual interpretation of these concepts. You had the
choice to compute everything analytically or create simulations to assist you get
the right answer. You probably also realized that some exercises could be answered
without any computations just by looking at certain hidden queues that the
visualizations revealed.\n",
"\n",
"**Keep up the good work!**\n"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": null,
"id": "dbe8e3c1",
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [],
"source": []
}
],
"metadata": {
"kernelspec": {
"display_name": "Python 3 (ipykernel)",
"language": "python",
"name": "python3"
},
"language_info": {
"codemirror_mode": {
"name": "ipython",
"version": 3
},
"file_extension": ".py",
"mimetype": "text/x-python",
"name": "python",
 "nbconvert_exporter": "python",
"pygments_lexer": "ipython3",
"version": "3.10.9"
}
},
"nbformat": 4,
"nbformat_minor": 5
}