Delft University of Technology

Climate Change: Science and Ethic

CIE4510-20

Climate lab 3
CL3: Simulating the Greenland ice sheet in a changing climate

Group 20:
Alice Caseiro, nº 5605903
Josephine van Ruiten, nº 4598040
Juliette Bruining, nº 4465180
Maxine Luger, nº 4494555
Niels Koldewijn, nº 4543386

September 3, 2023
Contents
1 Stimulating the present day ice sheet 1
1.1 What is the volume after 800 years in %? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
1.2 How long does the model take to equilibrate (this process is called “model initialization”), and
what is the final volume? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
1.3 In between which “x” positions (approximately) is the SMB>0 ? How does this relate to the
summer temperature? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1

2 Building up the Greenland ice sheet: time-scales and processes 3

2.1 Starting geometry . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
2.1.1 Why is the modelled bedrock for ice-free conditions higher than the observed bedrock? . . 3
2.1.2 From the figure displayed in the ‘Model’ worksheet, do you see any relationship between
the observed thickness and the difference between the observed and modelled bedrock? . . 3
2.2 Evolving geometry . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
2.2.1 Where does the ice sheet start growing? Why? Illustrate this with a figure. . . . . . . . 3
2.2.2 What is the volume (in % vs. present-day volume) after 4000 years? . . . . . . . . . . . . 4
2.2.3 By when does the ice sheet reach 50% of its present-day ice volume? . . . . . . . . . . . . 4
2.2.4 What is happening to the temperatures as the ice sheet grows? Why? Does this have a
positive or a negative feedback on the ice sheet evolution? Explain . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4
2.2.5 Over time the ice sheet expands to the West (to the left). What is the driving mechanism
behind this expansion? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4
2.2.6 How long does it take until the ice sheet reaches an equilibrium volume (i.e the modelled
volume does not change in time anymore and the ice sheet has reached a steady state)? . 4
2.2.7 Where are the modelled equilibrium velocities the highest and the lowest? Why is this?
In which x range does the model simulate zero sliding? (in other words, where is the basal
velocity equal to zero?) Attach a figure to illustrate your answer . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5

3 Ice sheet melt in a warming climate 6

3.1 what is the equilibrium volume? How long does it take to reach it? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
3.2 What is the temperature threshold (Tthr1) for complete loss of the ice sheet in this model?(i.e.,
from which TFOR does the simulated ice sheet disappear? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
3.3 How is this affected by the isostatic bedrock adjustment (i.e. find the TFOR=Tthr2 for which the
ice sheet disappear when BEDADJ=0. Start with TFOR=Tthr1, and depending on the result,
try 1K less or 1K more and continue in steps of 1 K if necessary until you find the new threshold
Tthr2)? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
3.4 How is this related to the elevation-temperature feedback? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
3.5 How much ice is lost during the first 800 years. What is the mean sea level rise in mm yr-1 during
this period?How does this compare to the present-day sea-level contribution from Greenland? . . 7

4 Regrowth of the ice sheet after reduction of temperature forcing 8

4.1 What do you conclude from the results in these two tables? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8

5 References 9

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1 Stimulating the present day ice sheet
1.1 What is the volume after 800 years in %?
The volume after 800 years is 100.02%.

1.2 How long does the model take to equilibrate (this process is called “model
initialization”), and what is the final volume?
Starting year is 800, equilibrium in the year: 25600. So it takes 24800 years for the model to equilibrate. The
final volume is 100%.

Figure 1: The ice-sheet model greenland for Run=1 and TFOR=0, at equilibrium

1.3 In between which “x” positions (approximately) is the SMB>0 ? How does
this relate to the summer temperature?
The SMB is larger than zero between x ≈ 0.25 and 0.77. When the summer temperature is beneath zero the
surface mass balance is positive. As then there is a possibility for the snow to accumulate (no melting).

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Figure 2: The ice-sheet model greenland for the balance (black), abletion(red) and accumulation (blue)

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2 Building up the Greenland ice sheet: time-scales and processes
Now the build up the Greenland ice sheet (DATASET=2) is run, this is done from an ice-free situation (RUN=0)
under the present-day climate (TFOR=0). This gives the following model:

Figure 3: The ice-sheet model greenland from an ice-free situation under the present-day climate

2.1 Starting geometry

2.1.1 Why is the modelled bedrock for ice-free conditions higher than the observed bedrock?
In the model it is assumed that the vertical movement has not happened yet (black line), because it is ice-free,
but in the observed case (red line) there has been ice on the bedrock before, so the vertical movement of the
bedrock has happened in the past. This caused a sinking of the bedrock.

2.1.2 From the figure displayed in the ‘Model’ worksheet, do you see any relationship between
the observed thickness and the difference between the observed and modelled bedrock?
Yes, the larger the difference between the observed and modelled bedrock, the larger is the observed thickness.

2.2 Evolving geometry

Now the model is run to the next time step (RUN = 1, will make it evolve to 800 years).

2.2.1 Where does the ice sheet start growing? Why? Illustrate this with a figure.
Due to the decrease in temperature seen in the right bottom figure, between 0.6 and 0.8.

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Figure 4: The ice-sheet model greenland from an ice-free situation under the present-day climate with RUN=1
and 800 years in time

2.2.2 What is the volume (in % vs. present-day volume) after 4000 years?
15.49% and 4.027*10E5

2.2.3 By when does the ice sheet reach 50% of its present-day ice volume?
Just after 12800 years and before 13600 years

2.2.4 What is happening to the temperatures as the ice sheet grows? Why? Does this have a
positive or a negative feedback on the ice sheet evolution? Explain
It is slowly decreasing over time, because of the albedo effect. The decrease in temperature is due to the earth
being covered in snow and ice this is causing an increase in the albedo. An increase in the albedo results in
an increase in radiation which is accelerating the temperature drop. This is what you see in the temperature
model. This has a positive feedback on the ice sheet evolution, since more ice and snow will be accumulating
due to the temperature drop.

2.2.5 Over time the ice sheet expands to the West (to the left). What is the driving mechanism
behind this expansion?
The ice thickness expanding to the west, is due to the surface mass balance and the mean horizontal velocity.
See the formula of the ice thickness evolution (1). You can see this as well in the model, per year the velocity
increases more to the west. Also the accumulation is higher in the west than the ablation, causing the ice sheet
to grow in the west.

2.2.6 How long does it take until the ice sheet reaches an equilibrium volume (i.e the modelled
volume does not change in time anymore and the ice sheet has reached a steady state)?
35200 years

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2.2.7 Where are the modelled equilibrium velocities the highest and the lowest? Why is this?
In which x range does the model simulate zero sliding? (in other words, where is the basal
velocity equal to zero?) Attach a figure to illustrate your answer
In the east and west coast of Greenland, the height is maximal. This is because the relief is the highest in these
regions. There is zero sliding around the x range of 0.57, which is the valley between the mountain regions.

Figure 5: The ice-sheet model greenland from an ice-free situation under the present-day climate with RUN=1

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3 Ice sheet melt in a warming climate
Now a table is made where from the present-day observed geometry (RUN=2) and is run forward (RUN=1)
with different temperature forcings; 2,5,6, and 8. Seen here below.

3.1 what is the equilibrium volume? How long does it take to reach it?

Table 1: Equilibrium volume and the time it takes to reach it

TFor Equilibrium volume (%) Time to reach equilibrium (years)

2 98,47 800
5 86,47 4800
6 0 8800
8 0 3200

3.2 What is the temperature threshold (Tthr1) for complete loss of the ice sheet
in this model?(i.e., from which TFOR does the simulated ice sheet disappear?
The Tthr1 is 6 degrees Celsius for complete loss of the ice sheet in this model.

3.3 How is this affected by the isostatic bedrock adjustment (i.e. find the TFOR=Tthr2
for which the ice sheet disappear when BEDADJ=0. Start with TFOR=Tthr1,
and depending on the result, try 1K less or 1K more and continue in steps of
1 K if necessary until you find the new threshold Tthr2)?
When the BEDADJ = 0, there is no isostatic adjustment due to the iceload. The temperature treshold for
complete loss of the ice sheet is then 5 degrees and will take 11200 years.

3.4 How is this related to the elevation-temperature feedback?

The model calculates for a certain height what the temperature of the ice sheet would be. Due to the isostatic
adjustment the ice sheet becomes a little more elevated over time, as can be deducted from the figure below.
When there is isostatic adjustment the iceload will be more elevated, thus higher in the atmosphere. The model
subsequently calculates a higher temperature needed to melt/warm the ice sheet. When there is no isostatic
adjustment, the black line (bedrock) in the left top figure will be at the height of the red line underneath.

Figure 6: The ice-sheet model greenland from an ice-free situation under the present-day climate with RUN=1
with t=5,600 years for BEDADJ=1, TFOR=Thr1

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3.5 How much ice is lost during the first 800 years. What is the mean sea level
rise in mm yr-1 during this period?How does this compare to the present-day
sea-level contribution from Greenland?
During the first 800 years, 9.48% of the ice is lost. This corresponds to 0.67 meter of sea level rise. The
present-day sea-level contribution from Greenland is 0.1-0.17 meter by the end of the 21st century (Graversen
et al., 2010) This is a little higher than the estimated value.

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4 Regrowth of the ice sheet after reduction of temperature forcing
Now we run the model again but the bedrock is adjusted (BEDADJ=0) with TFOR=Tthr1. In the table below
the time needed to recover the full ice sheet (let’s define it as 95% of the volume) is compared between the case
where we switch the temperature forcing back to zero after reaching 74% and the case where we switch it after
reaching 50%.
Volume when you change TFOR to 0 Time1 when you change TFOR to 0 (years) Time2 when volume=95% (years) Time for recovery (Time2-Time1) (years)
74% 3200 10400 7200
50% 4800 - -

Now this is repeated for the case that the temperature forcing is switched to 2 degrees warming (in line with
the Paris agreement).

Volume when you change TFOR to 2 Time1 when you change TFOR to 2 (years) Time2 when volume=95% (years) Time for recovery (Time2-Time1) (years)
74% 3200 - -
50% 4800 - -

4.1 What do you conclude from the results in these two tables?
Starting from the present day observed situation and with a 6 degrees warming, which corresponds to the
temperature threshold for complete loss of the ice sheet in this model, it takes 3200 years for the ice sheet to
reach less than 74%, namely 69.34% and 4800 years for it to reach less than 50%, namely 35.2%. When the
temperature forcing is switched back to 0, the ice sheet can still regrow for the case of the 74%. It takes 7200
years to recover (i.e. to reach again 95% of its volume). For the case of the 50% it cannot regrow anymore
and continues to fall in percentage until it reaches 14.73%. On the other hand, when the temperature forcing is
switched to 2 degrees warming (in line with the Paris agreement) none of both cases can recover: For the case
of the 74% the ice regrows until 75.19% and for the case of the 50% the volume percentage continues to drop
until 10.74%. In conclusion, with a 2 degree increase in temperature it is not possible to recover the ice sheet
anymore if it would reach 69.34% of the volume, while with a 0 degree increase it would be possible. Although
in line with the Paris Agreement a 2 degree increase can still lead to irreversible damage.

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5 References
[1] Graversen, R. G., Drijfhout, S., Hazeleger, W., Van de Wal, R., Bintanja, R., Helsen, M. (2010). Greenland’s
contribution to global sea-level rise by the end of the 21st century. Climate Dynamics, 37(7–8), 1427–1442.
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-010-0918-8