Q1. What is EMV?

How is it computed to be used as a creation of decision-

making and which?

Ans. Expected monetary value is a statistical technique used in risk

management. It’s a way of quantifying the expected loss or gain from
undertaking a project, given the probability of different outcomes.

The expected monetary value equation is as follows:

EMV = Probability x Impact

Probability is the chance of a certain outcome occurring and can range from 0–
100%.

Impact is the financial result of the outcome and can range from any negative
number to any positive number, depending on if the impact is positive or
negative on the firm’s bottom line.

This might all seem a bit convoluted, so let’s go through a few examples to
illustrate this concept better.

When it comes to risk management, although project managers have to

primarily depend on their knowledge from past projects, there exists a
technique known as Expected Monetary Value analysis to help in projects. The
project team is expected to use expected monetary value to help them steer
their way down the challenging paths. Even though many of the project
management plans aspirants find this concept difficult to understand.
However, the expected monetary value involves simple mathematical
calculations.

Project management plan team is responsible for quantifying the features of

the risks, either positive or negative, based on the company’s procedure and
knowledge database. Once the project is quantified, the project manager could
use the workings to calculate the EMV for each risk and the possibility reserve
for the entire project respectively. Even though we said EMV involves simple
calculations, it demands experience for one to appropriately substitute the
right figure for each variable and analyze the final project possibility reserve
using this technique.

Q2. Explain the method of solving a zero-sum two-person game as a linear

programming problem.

Ans. Game theory is a branch of Mathematics with a wide variety of

applications in economics, management science, political science, and
engineering. It aims to models situations in which multiple participants interact
or affect each other’s outcome. The 2-person 0-sum game is a basic model in
game theory. There are two players, each with an associated set of strategies.
While one player aims to maximize her payoff, the other player attempts to take
an action to minimize this payoff. In fact, the gain of a player is the loss of
another.

Two-person zero-sum games may be deterministic or probabilistic. The

deterministic games will have saddle points and pure strategies exist in such
games. In contrast, the probabilistic games will have no saddle points and mixed
strategies are taken with the help of probabilities.

Optimal Solution of Two-Person Zero-Sum Games Because games are rooted in

conflict of interest, the optimal solution selects one or more strategies for each
player such that any change in the chosen strategies does not improve the payoff
to either player. These solutions can be in the form of a single pure strategy or
several strategies mixed according to specific probabilities. The following two
examples demonstrate the two cases:- Two companies, A and B, sell two brands
of flu medicine. Company A advertises in radio (Ad, television (A2 ), and
newspapers (A3 ). Company B, in addition to using radio (Bl ), television (B2),
and newspapers (B3 ), also mails brochures (B4 ). Depending on the
effectiveness of each advertising campaign, one company can capture a portion
of the market from the other. The following matrix summarizes the percentage
of the market captured or lost by company A. Player A Player B B1 B2 B3 B4
Radio TV Newspaper Social media A1 Radio 8 -2 9 -3 A2 TV 6 5 6 8 A3
Newspaper -2 4 -9 5 The solution of the game is based on the principle of
securing the best of the worst for each player. If Company A selects strategy
A1, then regardless of what B does, the worst that can happen is that A loses 3%
of the market share to B. This is represented by the minimum value of the
entries in row 1. Similarly, the strategy A2 worst outcome is for A to capture
5% of the market from B, and the strategy A 3 worst outcome is for A to lose
9% to B. These result are listed in the "row min" column. To achieve the best of
the worst, Company A chooses strategy A2 because it corresponds to the
maximin value, or the largest element in the "row min" column. Next, consider
Company B's strategy. Because the given payoff matrix is for A, B's best of the
worst criterion requires determining the minimax value. The result is that
Company B should select strategy B2. The optimal solution of the game calls
for selecting strategies A2 and B2, which means that both companies should use
television advertising. The payoff will be in favor of company A, because its
market share will increase by 5%. In this case, we say that the value of the game
is 5%, and that A and B are using a saddle-point solution. The saddle-point
solution precludes the selection of a better strategy by either company. If B
moves to another strategy (B1> B3 , or B4 ), Company A can stay with strategy
A 2, which ensures that B will lose a worse share of the market (6% or 8%). By
the same token, A does not want to use a different strategy because if A moves
to strategy A 3, B can move to B3 and realize a 9% increase in market share. A
similar conclusion is realized if A moves to AI, as B can move to B4 and realize
a 3% increase in market share. The optimal saddle-point solution of a game
need not be a pure strategy. Instead, the solution may require mixing two or
more strategies randomly.
Q3. Indicate the critical path and state the normal duration and cost.

Ans. The critical path method (CPM) is a technique where you identify tasks
that are necessary for project completion and determine scheduling
flexibilities. A critical path in project management is the longest sequence of
activities that must be finished on time in order for the entire project to be
complete. Any delays in critical tasks will delay the rest of the project.
CPM revolves around discovering the most important tasks in the project
timeline, identifying task dependencies, and calculating task durations.
CPM was developed in the late 1950s as a method to resolve the issue of
increased costs due to inefficient scheduling. Since then, CPM has become
popular for planning projects and prioritizing tasks. It helps you break down
complex projects into individual tasks and gain a better understanding of the
project’s flexibility.

Using durations of activities and their respective network of a project can

facilitate to determine the project completion duration. It can be illustrated with
the following example.

activities of a project and their respective preceding activity(ies) and normal

completion duration(s) are given. Using the information, you can determine
normal duration of the project.

Network of the project hows that normal completion duration of the project is
55 days, which is determined with the durations of activities C, G and I. Their
respective durations are added (30 + 15 + 10) to obtain this project duration of
55 days. Since these activities determine the project duration, they are known
as Critical Activities and the path that consists of such activities in their order
of completion is called Critical Path . In completing the project, there are four
(4) identical paths in Figure 4.1. They are: P1  A, D, H  10 + 10 + 5 = 25
days, P2  A, E, F, H  10 + 10 + 20 + 5 = 45 days, P3  B, F, H  15 + 20 + 5
= 40 days, and P4  C, G, I  30 + 15 + 10 = 55 days. Among these (4) paths,
path P4 is the critical path, since it has the highest completion duration along
the path with the activities C, G and I. It is also notable that any of the
activities (C, G and I) on the path cannot be delayed to complete this project in
55 days.
Q4. Discuss use of two software packages in data analysis.

Ans. There are various types of software packages involved in data analysis
that make it easy to carefully analyzing data. Two of the packages include:

1) SPSS

SPSS -Statistical Package for the social sciences is a software program

combined in a single package. The main application of SPSS is analyzing
data. They are widely used in a social science-related research project to
analyze enormous data. That can be used in surveys, market research, data
mining, etc.; with the help of this, researchers can easily identify the
particular product’s demands in the market. Based on the result, they can
change the business or research strategy work. Generally, SPSS is like a
store or organize the provided data, which can be used later to produce the
desired output. It is designed in a way to handle a huge set of data.

SPSS Helps in Research & Data Analysis Programs:

SPSS is innovative software that researchers majorly use, which helps them
process complex data in simple steps. Working with complex data is a time-
consuming process, but SPSS software can easily handle and easily operate
with some techniques (provided by the software). These techniques help
analyse, transform, and produce a characteristic pattern found between
different data variables. It also assists in getting a quality output through
graphical representation to understand the result easily. It is always
necessary to learn from the best Online SPSS Programming Tutors to
understand and get familiar with particular software. Here, some of the
factors that are answerable for the process of data handling and its
execution.

1. Data Transformation:

The technique is used to transform the format of the data. Once changed
particular data type, it integrates the similar data type in one specific place,
which becomes easy to manage. You can introduce various kind of data into
SPSS, and it helps in changing the structure base on its system specification
and requirement. It means that even after you change the operating system,
SPSS can still work on old data.

2. Regression Analysis: It helps understand the relationship between

dependent and interdependent variables, which are stored in a particular
data file. It also describes how changes in the interdependent variable can
affect the dependent data. The fundamental need of regression analysis is
to understand the type of relationship which is found among various
variables.

3. ANOVA (Analysis of variance): A statistical approach that helps

compare the events, groups or processes, and finds out the variation
between them. It enables one to understand which method is more
appropriate for executing a particular task. By looking at the outcome, you
can find the feasibility and effectiveness of the particular method. If you find
difficulty with the SPSS function you can get help from Online SPSS
Programming Tutors.

4. MANOVA (Multivariate analysis of variance): It is used to compare

random variables whose value is unknown. MANOVA technique can also be
used to analyse different populations and what factors can affect their
choices.

2) R: It is a free software environment for all the statistical computing

and graphics. It provides an effective facility for data handling as well
as storage. It is freely available.
 Q5. Discuss the decision tree analysis.

Ans. A decision tree is a flowchart that starts with one main idea and then
branches out based on the consequences of your decisions. It’s called a
“decision tree” because the model typically looks like a tree with branches.
These trees are used for decision tree analysis, which involves visually outlining
the potential outcomes, costs, and consequences of a complex decision. You
can use a decision tree to calculate the expected value of each outcome based
on the decisions and consequences that led to it. Then, by comparing the
outcomes to one another, you can quickly assess the best course of action. You
can also use a decision tree to solve problems, manage costs, and reveal
opportunities.
A decision tree includes the following symbols:
• Alternative branches: Alternative branches are two lines that branch out from
one decision on your decision tree. These branches show two outcomes or
decisions that stem from the initial decision on your tree.
• Decision nodes: Decision nodes are squares and represent a decision being
made on your tree. Every decision tree starts with a decision node.
• Chance nodes: Chance nodes are circles that show multiple possible outcomes.
• End nodes: End nodes are triangles that show a final outcome.
A decision tree analysis combines these symbols with notes explaining your
decisions and outcomes, and any relevant values to explain your profits or
losses. You can manually draw your decision tree or use a flowchart tool to
map out your tree digitally.
Business organizations need to consider various parameters during
decision making. A decision tree analysis is one of the prominent ways
of finding out the right solution to any problem.

• Depicts Most Suitable Project/Solution: It is an effective means

of picking out the most appropriate project or solution after
examining all the possibilities.
• Easy Data Interpretation and Classification: Not being rocket
science, decision tree eases out the process of segregation of the
acquired data into different classes.
• Assist Multiple Decision-Making Tools: It also benefits the
decision-maker by providing input for other analytical methods like
nature’s tree.
• Considers Both, Categorical and Numerical Data: This
technique takes into consideration the quantitative as well as the
qualitative variables for better results.
• Initiates Variable Analysis: Its structured phenomena also
facilitates the investigation and filtration of the relevant data.

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