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1 Introduction
The past or conventional technique for delineating regions are based on geograph-
ically contiguous area, i.e. based on political/Administrative/physiographic bound-
aries, but such regions may not have a finite relationship with the variable affecting or
influencing the extreme rainfall. In spite of these developments, the regions may not
be homogeneous in rainfall. Even for reporting forecast related information (Precip-
itation) and other estimates at temporal scale, IMD uses meteorological subdivisions
which are again political boundaries. At present, there are 36 subdivisions and these
increase as new political state emerges. Several studies state that India is large enough
to be homogeneous [39]. Non-homogeneity was observed among MSDs in rainfall
frequency distribution [46]. Some even suggested a shearing of information between
sites within MSDs so as to maintain similarity in rainfall characteristics [49]. Five
summer monsoon rainfall homogeneous regions were delineated for India based on
grouping MSDs [41]. Recently found that the 5SMR is to be non-homogeneous in
frequency distribution [47].
Regionalization can be defined as the process of dividing the area into a similar
segment called regions; one of the transparent examples of regionalization is the divi-
sion of country into states. The goal of the regionalization technique can be described
as identifying watersheds that are similar enough to transfer the hydrological data of
the site with other sites. Numbers of techniques for regionalizing hydro-climatic vari-
ables were used such as drought, flood, rainfall, evapo-transpiration and streamflow,
which include (i) spatial interpolation, (ii) spatial maximum likelihood estimation
approach (SMLE), (iii) Bayesian spatial modelling approach, (iv) regression analysis
based approach, (v) regional rainfall frequency analysis.
In spatial interpolation based regional frequency analysis approach, extreme rain-
fall data is subjected to a frequency distribution corresponding to each gauging
station, and local estimates or parameters of rainfall quantiles of projected return
periods are spatially interpolated. As it requires sufficient station data for interpo-
lation, hence it may not be applicable for ungauged or sparsely gauged areas. Also
it requires a prior assessment of the type of frequency distribution of dataset and
parameter estimation at the gauged location before interpolation and as such this
form of pre-assumption may be inappropriate when accessible data records are brief.
For large geographical areas where spatial variation in distribution parameter
is uneven, generally expect large errors when applied to areas such as Indian
subcontinents [38, 43].
In regional frequency analysis based SMLE approach which is an enhancement
of spatial interpolation approach, using predictor variables, i.e. spatial covariates,
the highest probability estimates of GEV distribution parameters of extreme rainfall
are modelled as smooth functions in space, which forms the basis for target region
to estimate GEV distribution parameters and quantile estimates of extreme rainfall
[38, 43]. Bayesian spatial modelling approach based RFA which is an improvement
over SMLE approach is used when complicated spatial patterns of GEV distribution
parameters are enough, as such cannot be precisely modelled by simple regression
techniques [38, 43, 52]. Bayesian spatial modelling and SMLE approach also requires
prior assessment of the type of frequency distribution of extreme rainfall similar to
spatial interpolation approach.
Regional Frequency Analysis … 813
moments (e.g. skewness and kurtosis) of extreme rainfall data do not display signif-
icant spatial variability over a larger area than the relatively lower order moments
(variance), which in turn are assumed to vary more smoothly over space than the
first-order moment” [43]. “As a consequence, data from more (less) sites is used
for target site frequency analysis to estimate distribution parameters that are higher
(lower) order moments functions.” [43]. If the moment’s spatial variation is uneven
along with sampling effect, quantile estimates of rainfall for target location obtained
with the application of hierarchical approach will result in a large error.
In a principal component analysis based regionalization approach, components
from rainfall inter-station covariance or correlation matrix are extracted and patterns
of the components are analyzed for grouping homogeneous coherent regions with
respect to their rainfall variability [15]. This can be done either by plotting rotated
and/or unrotated PC loadings on study area map or represent the stations in 2D
plane as points. Extreme rainfall regional quantile estimates are obtained based on
(1) regional regression relationship fitted between PCs and parameters of regional
frequency distribution [55] and (2) regional growth curve constructed for each of the
delineated RFA. Demarcating regions increase when large number of sites along with
large number of principal components account for total variance of the study area. In
India, Gangetic plains and sub-Himalayan regions were delineated into four rainfall
homogeneous regions based on monthly and seasonal time scale to analyze summer
monsoon rainfall of monthly and seasonal of 90 stations during 1871–1984 [51]. India
was further divided into 10 homogeneous sequentially coherent rainfall regions by
applying PCA using sequential sewing of station to SMR over 200 stations from 1901
to 1980 [25]. Ten of the six coherent regions were found definitely heterogeneous
and three were possibly heterogeneous based on 1° × 1° gridded rainfall dataset
when tested for homogeneity in SMR frequency distribution.
Region of Influence based regionalization approach is designed to estimate
regional quantiles of extreme hydro-meteorological events by forming site-specific
regions, to address the concern about strictly contiguous region by considering a
zone of transition between adjacent climatic regions to provide smooth transition [8,
12, 54]. “Approach that considers each target site to have its own region consisting
of sites, whose distance to the target site in a weighted multidimensional space of
predictors does not exceed a chosen threshold value” [43].
Cluster analysis recently obtained a good identity for regional frequency anal-
ysis with the accessibility of data on various predictors of extreme rainfall and the
development of powerful computing resources [35, 56]. Different or range of multi-
variate statistical processes which are helpful for the investigation, interpretation
and classification of big datasets into comparable groups or clusters that may or may
not overlap are generically named as Cluster analysis [44]. Partitional clustering
and hierarchical techniques were conventionally used as extreme rainfall frequency
analysis which in turn produces hard clusters where every site is assigned to only
one cluster. In actual real scenario, casual factor, i.e. predictor variables which affect
the extreme rainfall resemble sites (partly or wholly). A fuzzy clustering technique
accounts such a phenomenon where every site can belong to more than one region or
cluster at a time [43]. Nine regions that were homogeneous in annual rainfall were
Regional Frequency Analysis … 815
framed by applying cluster ensemble algorithms to IMD gridded rainfall datasets (1º
× 1º) over a period 1951–2003 [1].
In Spectral analysis based regionalization approach the gauges that show low
spectral variability are grouped together to form regions; recently, Monte-Carlo
simulation procedure are developed to assess regions’ spectral homogeneity. The
application is applied to a group of 14MDs in central and north-western part of India
which was declared to be homogeneous Indian monsoon (HIM) region [40] and was
found to be spectrally non-homogeneous [5].
The implementation of rainfall frequency analysis is hindered by inadequate infor-
mation and observation units when estimating the occurrences of large return periods.
At-site rainfall frequency analysis can be defined as an assessment in which only
records of rainfall from the specific locations are used. Generally, a regional analysis
will have to be performed if data on rainfall from a group of similar watersheds is
used. Regional analysis or Regionalization tends to compensate the deficiency of
temporal data; therefore, rainfall regionalization needs to be employed in order to
extend rainfall information to areas where gauge stations are not available.
Using the standard statistical concept, the probability distribution of an observed
dataset is summarized with the help of its moments. Equating the sample moments
with the fitted distribution is commonly used to predict the parameters by adding a
parametric distribution to a dataset; the moment based statistical techniques are not
always reliable. It becomes difficult for the third or higher order moments to describe
the shape of a distribution. The results obtained from sample moments of a small
sample size differ markedly from the probability distribution from where the sample
was drawn [22].
2 L-Moments Concept
• (τ 3 ) L-Skewness: τ 3 = λ3 /λ2
• (τ 4 ) L-Kurtosis: τ 4 = λ4 /λ2
• Where: λ2 = Scale, λ3 = Skewness, λ4 = Kurtosis.
• λ1 = β 0
• λ2 = 2β 1 − β 0
• λ3 = 6β 2–6 β2 + β 0
• λ4 = 20β 3–3 0β 2 + 12β 1 − β 0 .
Definition of L-moment ratios: λ1 is a central tendency, τ2 = λ2 /λ1 L-Coefficient
of variation (LCV) also called dispersion and scale measure, the ratio λ3 /λ2 repre-
sent τ3 L-Coefficient of skewness (L-CS) or skewness measure, and the ratio λ4 /λ2
represent τ4 L-Coefficient of kurtosis (L-CK) or kurtosis measure.
“Probability Weighted Moments (PWM) is defined as βr = E x[F(x)]r ” [16].
“Where F(x) is the (CDF) cumulative distribution functions of X, and βr is rth-
order PWM.” PWMs based initial four L-moments are calculated as above.
Where the data (X 1:n ) arranged in chronological order (1–n).
n
• β0 = n −1 Xj
j=1
n
( j − 1)
• β1 = n −1 Xj
j=2
(n − 1)
n
( j − 1)( j − 2)
• β2 = n −1 Xj
j=3
(n − 1)(n − 2)
n
( j − 1)( j − 2)( j − 3)
• β3 = n −1 Xj .
j=4
(n − 1)(n − 2)(n − 3)
“A homogeneous region(s) that meets the requirements that all sites within a region
can be defined by a single probability distribution with common distribution param-
eters, once the site information is rescaled by their at-site mean, the non-dimensional
rescaled probability distribution is termed a regional growth curve” [23].
The homogeneity criteria, i.e. having the same values of L-moment ratios corre-
spond to all the sites in the region, which in turn also helps how the variation in
L-Skewness and L-CV influence regional growth curve [37]. “An instance of how
changes in L-CV and L-Skewness impact the shape of the regional growth curve was
created for the Generalized Extreme Value distribution, the result indicates that if
L-CV varies for a set L-Skewness value, the slope of the regional growth curve will
be influenced” [23].
Similarly, the shape of the regional growth curve is also affected by varying L-
Skewness. The upper tail of the regional growth curve is affected by positive rises
in the magnitude of L-skewness. Probability distributions are often “unstable” along
with positive large L-skewness and also have big quantile values for the upper tail.
Negative rises in L-skewness, on the other side, influence the lower tail of the regional
818 R. T. Sahu et al.
growth curve. While describing how quantile are influenced by changing magnitude
of L-Skewness and L-CV, the above conduct should be taken into account [37].
To identify a suitable group of sites, RFA is carried out in four significant stages
(1) Data Screening: L-moment along with sample L-moment ratios used to create
a discordancy that recognizes sites that are notably unique compared to others. (2)
Identification of homogeneous regions: this is an important process of RFA where L-
moment defines the set of sites that fulfils the requirements of regional homogeneity.
In testing a region’s heterogeneity, L-moments can be utilized to create summary
statistics. (3) Selection of frequency distribution: (Z-statistical test) Regional average
L-moments statistics or L-moment ratio diagram can be utilized for testing correla-
tion among candidate distribution and observed data. (4) Parameter Estimation: L-
moments are utilized to appraise parameters of the selected parent distribution. [28]
used AMT (Mean annual maximum temperature) “coherent-basin” approach using
L-moments methodology for regional frequency analysis of Colombia basin. [27]
used L-Moments methodology for regional frequency analysis of North Brahmaputra
Region of India.
Moreover, precipitation statistics are to be affected by different climatic factors
such as orographic effects, oceanic proximity and rainforest environments. To depict
homogeneous regions, the importance of spatial variability of extreme characteristics
using L-moment-based statistical tests of homogeneity is proposed [2]. “L-moment
based goodness-of-fit tests is used for identification of the regional distribution within
each homogeneous region” [23]. “Goodness-of-fit test based L-moments are more
robust than classical single-site goodness-of-fit test since they use regional rather
than single-site data to discriminate between parent distributions” [2]. A hierarchical
method for estimating parameters of an appropriate regional parent distribution in
which L-skewness and L-kurtosis (higher order L-moments) are predicted over larger
areas than mean and L coefficient of variation (lower order L-moments). The hierar-
chical method is important in order to demonstrate the precision of estimating design
floods, particularly at sites with short record lengths: [2].
Cluster Analysis is a standard multivariate statistical analysis used to part the
observed datasets into groups or form cluster based on greater similarity, such that
each cluster contains the least variance, i.e. smallest dissimilarity. Ward’s minimum
variance method and dissimilarity squared Euclidean distance were used to measure
maximum similarity and dissimilarity of the groupings. [18] suggested regional rain-
fall frequency function and spatial rainfall regions of Luhane Basin of Hebei China.
[31] CA together with region of Influence is used to estimate peak flood with specific
return period of Namak Lake Basin of Iran. Malekinezhad and Zare-Garizi [17] used
it for regional rainfall frequency analysis for Golestan province of Iran. [42] used
it to check trends in precipitation for Pranhita catchment in Godavari Basin. [43]
Regional Frequency Analysis … 819
used GFCM based cluster analysis for regionalization and regional flood frequency
analysis of India.
Principal Component Analysis is used to transform the original dataset to a newly
uncorrelated dataset known as principal component. The first component captures
as many variations as possible in the original dataset, while the second component
captures uncorrelated maximum variability captured by second component and so
on. [33] suggested along with CA to find the spatial variation of extreme dry events
for Isfahan Province of Iran. [48] PCA together with Cluster Analysis (CA) and
Discriminant Analysis (DA) was used to estimate stream-flow parameters at each
gauged catchment in Alabama, Georgia and Mississippi.
Method of Moments is a procedure for building parameter estimators by coor-
dinating the sample moments with the distribution moments. MOM is a moder-
ately simple technique yet its assessments are normally lower in quality and are
commonly not productive for distributions with parameters (3 or more) because in
case of small samples higher order moments are relatively highly biased. [34] used to
estimate maximum flood discharge at Malakkara and Neeleswaram River in Pampa
and Periyar River Basins.
SPI Standardized Precipitation Index is a reference index representing the chance
of occurrence of rainfall amount with respect to the rainfall climatology for a long
period of time at certain geographical location. Negative SPI indicates insufficient
rainfall, on the other hand, positive SPI represents surplus rainfall. The magnitude
of negative SPI is generally used to classify the Intensity of drought event, such that
the seriousness of an event increases with the increase of negative SPI. For example,
an extremely dry condition can be classified if the negative SPI is greater than 2. The
Area under Dryness (AUD) was analyzed for persistence of drought, drought spread
and drought frequency in India [30].
Method of Maximum Likelihood is a parameter estimation technique and is an
efficient method because it has desirable properties such as invariance property and
asymptotically unbiasedness, consistency, efficiency and sufficiency in the large
sample size estimation of complex probability density functions. [36] used (POT)
Peak over Threshold together with (AM) Annual Maximum flood series for regional
frequency analysis of Tel basin of Mahanadi River system, India.
Index Flood technique uses the information of gauged catchments to assess
a regional relationship from which the flood extents of different return periods
for ungauged catchments can be assessed. After creating an effective relationship
between different variables including mean peak annual flood, catchment area and
return period it turns out to be simple to design heavy hydraulic structures at regions
where information is scarcely available or available not at all. Ejigu Eregno [11] used
it for regional frequency analysis of Didessa sub-basin of South-Western Ethiopia.
[29] used it for flood frequency analysis of Sabarmati River Basin, Gujarat. [50] used
it to compute the quantiles using regional dataset so as to obtain the design events and
at-site quantiles with greater reliability of Pakistan monsoon region. Parida et al. [6]
used to compute the regional parameters, the growth curve and hence the quantiles
of India’s hydro-meteorological subzone 3a Mahi-Sabarmati River Basins. Basu and
Srinivas [7] used to evaluate the performance of CIF, LIF and two variants of PIF to
820 R. T. Sahu et al.
estimate the flood quantiles of ungauged basin using Monte Carlo simulation exper-
iments for Indiana watersheds in U.S. Dad and Benabdesselam [9] used to improve
the estimated quality of AMD precipitation of northeastern area of Algeria.
NS
S = (N S − 1)−1 (u i − ū)(u i − ū)T
i=1
NS
ū = N S−1 ui
i=1
where ui is the vector of L-moments, LCv, L-Cs and L-Ck , for site i, ū is the group
average, A is the covariance matrix of the sample and the T indicates transposition
of a matrix or vector.
The total no of sites is N S . If Di value exceeds 3 the site is considered as discordant.
The Di statistic for 1 among 17 stations of the Luanhe Basin of Hebei China was
found to exceed the critical value [18]. Six gauging sites of Didessa sub-basin of
South-Western Ethiopia were in the range of 0.23–1.48 which lies within the critical
range hence all gauging sites are suitable for RFA [11]. Isfahan Province of Iran has
31 gauging stations among which only one station was discordant having value Di
= 3.46 [33]. The discordancy calculated for 7gauging station lies within the critical
region having value Di = 1.92 for Mirim-Sao Goncalo basin, Brazilian territory
and Uruguay [10]. Forty-seven gauging stations were in Golestan Province of Iran
Regional Frequency Analysis … 821
test were used to check stationarity and independency of AMR series datasets of the
Pakistan monsoon region [50].
Discordant sites found during regional analyses. For rejecting or accepting any
site amongst a group of sites or a proposed region, the heterogeneity measure (H 1 )
is the primary indicator. The secondary indicator is discordance measure which is
used to justify whether to shift a doubtful site to another region. Table 3 shows some
necessary activities that need to take if discordant site is found.
The entire Luhane Basin of Hebei China was not homogeneous as the H 1 was
larger than the critical value of H 1 < 1 [18]. For the Namak Lake Basin of Iran, the
H 1 value of 21 sites was 3.29, more than H 1 < 1, thus the entire region was not
homogeneous [31]. 4-parameter Kappa distribution using JAVA which indicates H
= −0.185886 is within H 1 < 1 for meteorological sub-division 4 of India [4]. H 1 =
0.68 was estimated which agrees H 1 < 1 for India’s hydro-meteorological subzone
3a Mahi-Sabarmati River Basins [6]. 245 regions were tested for homogeneity out of
which 71 were accepted as homogeneous, 61 were possibly heterogeneous and rest
of them was defiantly heterogeneous for Indiana watersheds in U.S. [7]. [27] made
homogeneity test for 13 gauging sites and found to exceed the criteria of H 1 < 1,
which was H 1 = 3.68, on excluding three discordant sites the H 1 becomes 0.48 for
10 sites of North Brahmaputra region of India.
to determine the variability of L-CV in at-site values becomes the de facto to describe
the heterogeneity level of a proposed region.
Heterogeneity H1 Computation, for the proposed sites of the region, “a weighted
average regional value of L-CV (L-CVR) is predicted from the L-CV sample values,
where the weights refer to the length of the record. A weighted-average standard
deviation is then calculated for the at-site L-CV values (VLCv). A four-parameter
Kappa distribution is then fitted using the weighted-average regional values of the L-
moment ratios for the group of sites. 500 computer simulations are then conducted
using the fitted four-parameter Kappa distribution, where each simulation has the
same number of sites and record lengths as that of the proposed region. The mean
(μv ) and standard deviation σv are computed of the 500 samples of the standard
deviation of the at-site samples of L-CV” [23]. H 1 is then computed as
VLCv − μv
H1 = (1)
σv
With the observed L-moment ratios, if the H 1 value is zero, the expected value of
a homogeneous region is similar to that of site-to-site variability of a region, fitted by
a four-parameter Kappa distribution. The expected value of a homogeneous region
is higher than the site-to-site variability of at-site L-CV values then the H 1 indicates
positive values and large H 1 values indicating likely or possible heterogeneity (see
Table 4). On the other hand, if a homogeneous region’s expected value is lower than
the at-site L-CV values of site-to-site variability, then H 1 becomes negative and the
region is marked as acceptably homogenous.
[23] originally proposed H 1 value as 1.0 for describing any proposed region
to be acceptably homogeneous. Using Monte Carlo experiments with samples from
known distributions, the above criterion depends on the statistical notion of sampling
characteristics for L-CV. More often, from the difficulties in a recording of data and
the accurate measurement cause extra variability in L-CV. The human efforts in
managing and collecting the data may cause a variety of supplementary data quality
issues. The research up to date indicates that H 1 = 2.0 is a good choice which
creates a line between likely heterogeneous and likely homogeneous. Table 4 lists
some regulations for accepting any proposed homogeneous regions. Changing the
limit value of H 1 in Table 4 may be justified for examining certain phenomena
that depend on the magnitude of variability conferred on test sample data for data
4 Goodness-of-Fit Measure
The goodness-of-fit test was introduced to find parent probability distribution which
is close to the weighted average regional values of L-Kurtosis and L-Skewness for
the proposed group of sites [23]. Test visualization is carried out by drawing a graph
between observed regional values of L-Skewness and L-Kurtosis of the proposed
region and defining the value of L-Kurtosis matches close to the regional value of
L-Kurtosis. “The Z statistic has the form of goodness of fit and has approximately a
standard Normal distribution.”
The goodness-of-fit test is as
τ4D I ST − τ̄4 + β4
Z DIST =
σ4
N 1
sim 2 2
Nsim
β4 = −1
Nsim τ4(m) − τ̄4
m=1
Regional Frequency Analysis … 825
for RFA of AMER were predominantly in order of their frequency, and for most of
the regions it was not common across all the durations for India [43]. Amongst two
datasets GPA showed best result for AM datasets, whereas LN (3P) showed best result
for POT datasets followed by GPA for Tel basin for Mahanadi River system, India
[36]. GEV was the best fit for low return periods and GNO for high return periods in
monsoon climatic region of Pakistan [50]. Three regions were identified for which
GNO was the best-fit for region-I, GLO for region-II and GEV for region-III of
Hanjiang River Basin, China [53].
Distributions in L-Moment Regional Analysis Program consists of seven distri-
butions for fitting the regional dataset. The major portion of L-Moment Ratio
Diagrams is covered by these seven distributions and found to be useful in exploring
environmental data. Distributions along with their shape parameter are as follows:
• (GNO) Generalized Normal
• (P3) Pearson Type-3
• (KAP) Kappa distribution
• Special Case of Kappa Distribution
• (GLO) Generalized Logistic, with (h = −1) shape parameter
• (GEV) Generalized Extreme Value, with (h = 0) shape parameter
• Gaucho, with (h = +0.5) shape parameter
• (GPA) Generalized Pareto, with (h = +1) shape parameter.
The parameters of the identified parent probability distributions function were esti-
mated using L-moment with respect to their respective equations as shown in Table 5,
where K, ξ and α are shape, location and scale parameter, respectively. [30] used
FORTRAN subroutine to compute parameters of Pearson Type III distribution for
India.
K = 1+0.2906z
z+0.1882z 2 +0.59567z 3
z= 3π (τ3 )2 for 0 < |τ3 | < 1/3
0.36067z−0.59567z 2 +0.25361z 3
K = 1−2.78861z+2.56096z 2 −0.77045z 3
z = 1 − |τ3 | for 1/3 <= |τ3 | < 1
Source [7, 37]
candidate distributions that best fits the observed dataset. The Bais and (RMSE) root-
mean-square error was computed to check adequacy of fitted distribution of Canada
[2]. [37] suggested RMSE, PPCC, RRMSE and MADI to check the acceptability
of parent distribution. Malekinezhad and Zare-Garizi [17] applied Bias, RMSE and
90% error bounds to test adequacy of a fitted distribution for Golestan Province of
Iran. [43] used R-bias, R-RMSE and AR-bias for performance measure, effectiveness
of the regions as well as ROI’s were checked using leave-one-out cross-validation
(LOOCV) procedure for India. Basu and Srinivas [7] used R-bias, AR-bias and R-
RMSE for performance measure and LOOCV procedure to check the effectiveness of
CIF, LIF and two variants of PIF procedure in estimating the quantiles for un-gauges
sites of Indiana watersheds in U.S. Dad and Benabdesselam [9] suggested RMSE
and relative bias to check the adequacy of the fitted distribution of north-eastern area
of Algeria. BIAS, RRMSE and A-BIAS were used for adequacy check for Pakistan
828 R. T. Sahu et al.
monsoon region [50]. (RMSE) was used to check adequacy of Hanjiang River Basin,
China [53].
The initial four L-moments attached to each station from the set of stations qualifying
the homogeneity and discordance measurements were divided by their respective λ1
values to make them dimensionless. To acquire the standard regional L-moment
estimates λrR weighted values of above dimensionless L-moments are utilized.
Without using the regional homogeneity criteria, frequency estimates of gauged and
ungauged watersheds were matched.
N
n i λr(i)
λrR = i=1
N
i=1 ni
5 Conclusion
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