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SUMMER INTERNSHIP PROJECT REPORT ON

TECHNICAL & FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS OF THE PRIVATE BANKING SECTOR IN


INDIA

AT

GHALLA BHANSALI STOCK BROKERS PVT LTD

SUBMITTED TO

MET INSTITUTE OF MANAGEMENT


BHUJBAL KNOWLEDGE CITY,

BANDRA RECLAMATION, BANDRA, MUMBAI 400050

SUBMITTED BY

MR. CHIRAG GALA

UNDER THE GUIDANCE OFINDUSTRY MENTOR

CA. MUKESH DEDHIA

FACULTY MENTOR

DR. NIRMALA JOSHI MA’AM


A PROJECT REPORT ON

TECHNICAL & FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS OF THE PRIVATE BANKING SECTOR IN


INDIA

SUBMITTED IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT FOR THE AWARD OF THE DEGREE OF

MASTER OF MANAGEMENT STUDIES (MMS)

(UNDER UNIVERSITY OF MUMBAI)

SUBMITTED BY:

CHIRAG GALA

ROLL NO: 49

FINANCE

BATCH 2022-24

MET’S INSTITUTE OF MANAGEMENT

BHUJBAL KNOWLEDGE CITY,

BANDRA RECLAMATION, BANDRA,

MUMBAI – 400 050

ACADEMIC YEAR 2022-23

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SUMMER INTERNSHIP REPORT

A PROJECT REPORT ON SUMMER INTERNSHIP AT GHALLA BHANSALI STOCK


BROKERS PVT LTD

PROJECT TITLE:

TECHNICAL & FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS OF THE PRIVATE BANKING SECTOR IN


INDIA

BY: CHIRAG GALA

ROLL NO:49

FINANCE

BATCH 2022-24

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CERTIFICATE

This is to certify that Project titled TECHNICAL & FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS OF


PRIVATE BANKING SECTOR IN INDIA is successfully completed by CHIRAG GALA
during the II semester, in partial fulfilment of the Master’s Degree of Management Studies
recognized by the University of Mumbai for the academic year of 2022-24. Bearing Roll No. 49
in the II semester of academic year of 2022-24. This project work is original and was not
submitted earlier for any award of any degree/diploma or associated with any other institution
/university.

Name:

Dr. Nirmala Joshi (Signature of the Guide)

Date:

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STUDENT’S DECLARATION

This is to declare that the study presented by me to MET Institute of Management Studies, in partial
completion of the MMS under the title “Technical & Fundamental Analysis of the Private Banking
Sectorin India” had been done under the guidance of Prof. Dr. Nirmala Joshi Ma’am & CA. Mukesh
Dedhia Sir during 4th May to 3rd July 2023.

Place: Mumbai Signature of the Student

Roll No.

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ACKNOWLEDGEMENT

I wish to express my deep sense of gratitude to Ghalla Bhansali Stock Brokers Pvt Ltd and in particular
CA. Mukesh Dedhia Sir, for the timely guidance, inspiration and encouragement in the conduct of my
Summer Internship Projectwork. I would also like to thank the entire team for constantly supporting
me throughout the summer internship and other Officials in the Industry for all their valuable assistance.

I take this opportunity to thank my faculty mentor Prof. Dr. Nirmala Joshi Ma’am for her able guidance
andvaluable suggestions, which helped me in completing the project work, in time.
I take immense pleasure in thanking Dr. Swati Lodha Ma’am, (Director of MET IOM, Mumbai) for
havingpermitted me to carry out this project work.

I would thank my dear parents with all the gratitude and respect for their constant and impeccable
supportthroughout the summer internship course. Also, for having faith in me to achieve the much-
needed experience.

It is my pleasure to be indebted to various people, who directly or indirectly contributed in the


developmentof this project and who influenced my thinking, behavior and acts during the summer
internship period.

Student Name: Chirag Gala

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Technical & Fundamental Analysis of the Private Banking Sector in India at Ghalla Bhansali Stock Brokers Pvt Ltd.

Executive Summary

The report is based on research of Private banking sector. The research will be conducted by using two
tools i.e., Fundamental analysis and technical analysis. Information used is collected from past data.
Indian Economy being one of the fastest developing countries in the world, companies in India are
growingat a faster rate as compared to their growth rate a decade back. Many Indian companies are
expanding theirbusiness globally with mergers and acquisition. Over the years banking sector has seen
many changes. This report explains in detail about each phase banking industry has gone through.
Banking sector is heart of any economy. The report also provides the insight of the condition of the
Indian Banking Industry in its fundamental and technical analysis.
The report uses different technical analysis tools to analyze the investment opportunities in the selected
banking companies. Different tools may suggest different strategy to follow, which might be
contradictoryin nature.
Equity valuation begins with analysis of the sector in which one wants to make investment; if the sector
looks positive then analyze various companies in the sector. A company is analyzed fundamentally to
checkits performance and financial strength. Technical analysis is used to decide the right price to buy
a stock sothat higher return on investment can be generated.

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Technical & Fundamental Analysis of the Private Banking Sector in India at Ghalla Bhansali Stock Brokers Pvt Ltd.

OBJECTIVES:

This Internship had following objectives-

1. To understand the primary and secondary market in easy manner.

2. To understand and execute the strategies of Buying and Short Selling as well as intra-day trading.

3. To learn how the market actually works, what factors influence it, and when to take trade by
applyingindicators & strategies.
4. Also, to understand how corporate life works, as well as the regulations and attitudes that must be
followed when working in the corporate sector.
5. To understand the Price Actions & behavior of BANK NIFTY.

LIMITATIONS:

1. 2 months of duration of internship may not be enough for deep analysis of all the strategies of
intraday trading and market depth.
2. Too much dependence of strategies while doing intraday trade may lead to some losses.

3. Due to pandemic and ongoing war situation, sometimes it affects the learning.

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CHAPTE CONTENT PAGE NO.


R
1 Introduction of the Company 11
2 Introduction of the Private Banking Sector 12 - 24
3 Research Methodology 25 - 27
4 Fundamental Analysis 28 - 36
5 Technical Analysis 37 - 51
6 Suggestions & Recommendations 52
7 Conclusion 53
8 Bibliography 54

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Technical & Fundamental Analysis of the Private Banking Sector in India at Ghalla Bhansali Stock Brokers Pvt Ltd.

Chapter 1: Introduction of the Company

1.1 Overview of the company

Ghalla Bhansali’s financial services’ foundation was laid almost three decades ago. Quality, Passion,
Character and Integrity are the virtues imbibed in the firm by its Founders, which is portrayed in each
member of the organization. Ghalla Bhansali strives to provide knowledge-based services to meet the
dynamic needs of its clients. They offer services related to Stock Broking (Equity and Equity
Derivatives), Depository Participant, PMS and Distribution of regulated financial products. We are
recognized as an honest, talented, transparent, innovative and progressive team of professionals
growing consistently along with its clients and providing considerable growth opportunities to all our
stakeholders and associates. It also has an associate company which is GBCA LLP. This team’s
expertise in bringing creative and practical solutions tailored to clients’ unique requirements has earned
us the trust and confidence of numerous domestic and international clients. They assist businesses and
organizations from start-up through growth and transition. They serve individuals, families and
businesses in a broad spectrum of industries.

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Chapter 2: Introduction of the Private Banking Sector

2.1 What is private sector bank?

Private Sector Banks in India – Private Sector Banks in India plays a major role in Financial Inclusion.
ThisArticle will give you clear insights into Private Banks, Local Area Banks, Small Banks, Payment
Banks, and Foreign Banks.

2.2 Introduction to Private Sector Banks in India:

The Indian Banking System comprises two major sectors of Banks. i.e., Public and Private Sector
Banks. The former is controlled by the Government and the latter’s share or equity are held by private
shareholders.The Private Sector Banks in India are divided into two groups. They are Old Private Sector
Banks and NewPrivate Sector Banks.
• Old Private Sector Banks existed prior to the nationalization in 1969 and kept their independence
because they were either too small or specialist to be included in nationalization.
• The new private sector banks are those that have gained their banking license since the liberalizationin
the 1990s.

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Private-sector banks" are institutions where the majority of ownership or equity is held by private
investors as opposed to the government. Old and new private sector banks are separated into two
categories. Beforebeing nationalized in 1969, the previous private sector banks were still operating and
maintained their independence. Since banking regulations were liberalized in the 1990s, new private
sector banks have emerged. Private banks are widespread in India and are renowned for providing quick
service to their clients. Since all major banks in India were nationalized by the Indian government in
1969, public sector banks have dominated the country's banking industry. However, since the
government's banking regulationswere liberalized in the 1990s, both new and old private sector banks
have reemerged. They have expanded more quickly and significantly over the past 20 years since
liberalization, utilizing cutting-edge technology, modern innovations, and monetary instruments and
procedures.
The Reserve Bank of India opened the door for private banks in 1994 and issued a directive to regulate
them. Additionally, the policy allowed for the free and autonomous functioning of private banks. Trust
Bank, subsequently known as Oriental Bank of Commerce, was the first private bank. Following that,
several private banks such as HDFC Bank, International Bank, ING Vysya Bank, Kotak Mahindra
Bank, SBI Commercial Bank, Karnataka Bank, Kashmir Bank, ICICI Bank, and others emerged. Private
banks inIndia marked a significant milestone in their dedication to helping people.
Private banks in India have received positive feedback for their services and are renowned for bringing
about change in order to serve millions of clients. It provides the finest options for saving and a variety
of schemes with the highest returns. It provides its services around-the-clock and makes fund transfers
simplerby introducing new banking services. Additionally, many ATMs have been installed by such
private banks,simplifying the process of withdrawing liquid funds. 18.2% of the Indian banking sector is
the responsibilityof the private banks.
The Indian banking sector has developed over time to provide customers with excellent and transparent
financial services. It contains information on the financial standing of various social classes of the
country. India's public and commercial banks are becoming more flexible with their services and
programs. However, private banks are now better positioned to be customers' top options. In terms
of operational

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effectiveness and level of innovation, private banks in India do better. Because they are profit-driven,
theyoffer a higher caliber of service.

After the LPG policy was established in the 1990s, private banks were acknowledged. Axis Bank and
IndusInd Bank are two of the oldest and most well-known private banks in India, having opened its
doors in 1993 or 1994 after receiving permission from the government to do so.

2.3 Main functions & activities of Private Banking Sector

• Given that they operate in a more competitive environment, private banks in India offer superior
services. They provide more goods and services than banks that have been nationalized. They
protect the consumers' security and privacy. Some important functions of private bank are as
follows:

• These banks advise and choose various investment methods for clients to achieve their goals.

• They offer services for opening deposit accounts with high-interest rates on savings accountsand
other advantages. In other words, they also provide services for investment planning.
• They offer advice and recommendations on various real estate financing choices.

• They offer credit and loans at reasonable rates.

• Numerous banks in India provide their customers with support for tax compliance and impending
changes in taxation. Banks help customers manage future risks and uncertainties, such as market
circumstances, interest rate fluctuations, liquidity hazards, etc., in a manner similar to how tax
trends assist taxpayers.
• They provide cash flow management for various clients by keeping track of bills and receipts.

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2.4 Overview of private banks

There are currently 21 operational banks running quickly in India. A user should think about the best
banking possibilities in various private banks in India given their deteriorating and improving financial
situation.

The following table will give an overview of all the private banks in India.

Bank name Establishment Headquarter

1993 Mumbai, Maharashtra


1. Axis Bank

2015 Kolkata, West Bengal


2. Bandhan Bank

3. CSB Bank 1920 Thrissur, Kerala

1904 Thanjavur, Tamil Nadu


4. City Union Bank

1930 Mumbai, Maharashtra


5. DCB Bank

6. Dhanlaxmi Bank 1927 Thrissur, Kerala

1931 Aluva, Kerala


7. Federal Bank

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8. HDFC Bank 1994 Mumbai, Maharashtra

1994 Mumbai, Maharashtra


9. ICICI Bank

1964 Mumbai, Maharashtra


10. IndusInd Bank

11. IDFC FIRST 2015 Mumbai, Maharashtra


Bank

12. Jammu &


Kashmir Bank 1938 Srinagar, Jammu and Kashmir

1924 Mangaluru, Karnataka


13. Karnataka Bank

14. Karur Vysya 1916 Karur, Tamil Nadu


Bank

2003 Mumbai, Maharashtra


15. Kotak Mahindra
Bank

1964 Mumbai, Maharashtra


16. IDBI Bank

17. Nainital bank 1922 Nainital, Uttarakhand

1943 Mumbai, Maharashtra


18. RBL Bank

1929 Thrissur, Kerala


19. South Indian
Bank

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20. Tamilnadu
MercantileBank 1921 Thoothukudi, Tamil Nadu

2004 Mumbai, Maharashtra


21. YES Bank

Table 1 Establishment of Private banks

2.4.1 HDFC Bank

Due to its extensive banking network, the HDFC bank is the most well-known bank in India. In terms
of assets, it is without a doubt the biggest bank in the nation. It has an incredible market capitalization
and a respectable reach of more than 5500 bank branches across the nation.
The bank was established in 1994, and Mumbai, Maharashtra, serves as its corporate headquarters. It
is a leading source of employment in India. The bank underwent numerous mergers over the years. The
TimesBank introduced the first one in 2000.
Furthermore, it made one of the biggest acquisitions in the banking or financial sector in 2008 when it
bought and took over the Centurion Bank of Punjab.

2.4.2 Axis Bank

Axis Bank was established on December 3, 1993, and it offers excellent financial services. Originally
known as UTI Bank, it changed its name to Axis Bank in 2007. Its corporate offices are situated in the
nation's financial center (Mumbai).
The majority of the firms that Axis Bank works with are small, medium, and big enterprises. It connects
tomore than 4530 branches reasonably well. It also has other subsidiaries, including Axis Capital Ltd.,
Axis Securities Ltd., and others, both in India and internationally. The bank purchased the digital
business "Freecharge" in 2017.

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2.4.3 ICICI Bank

With more than 5270 bank branches and a sizable number of subsidiaries, ICICI Bank has a sizable
and expanding banking infrastructure. It was established in January 1955 and is regarded as India's
second- largest bank. ICICI Bank later replaced the original name Industrial Credit and Investment
Corporation ofIndia Bank.
It is one of the best service providers, offering services including asset management, venture capital,
life insurance, and non-life insurance. Gujarat's Vadodara is home to the organization's main offices.

2.4.4 Kotak Mahindra Bank

With 1600 branches spread across more than 740 locations, Kotak Mahindra Bank is currently the third-
largest bank in India (based on assets). The renowned bank Uday Kotak launched it in 1985.
Kotak Mahindra Capital, Kotak Mahindra Life Insurance, Kotak Capital Company, and Kotak
Mahindra General Insurance are just a few of its many subsidiaries.
In addition to offering financial services, it often engages in CSR activities. Its main office is in
Mumbai. In the last ten years, Kotak Mahindra has bought two companies: Ferbine in 2021 and ING
Vysya Bank in2015.

2.4.5 YES Bank

A large bank with a focus on helping both business and retail customers is Yes Bank Limited. Ashok
Kapoorand Rana Kapoor, two bankers, launched it in 2004. Recently, when the bank was set to fail, it
made the news. The RBI assumed charge of the system and managed it.

Mumbai, Maharashtra, is where the bank's registered office is located. A digital wallet project called
"Yes Pay" was launched by Yes Bank recently in 2017. It launched this service in conjunction with
BHIM and UPI. Additionally, they received money from the government for their food processing
projects totaling Rs. 1000 crores. It is one of the most customer-focused and service-driven banks in
India that meets job needs of approx. 18000 Indians

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2.4.6 Federal Bank

Federal Bank, which has its headquarters in Aluva, Kochi, has approximately 1272 branches around
the country. It maintains representational offices abroad. It was established in 1931 with the specific
intentionof becoming India's most reputable bank.
It offers a broad range of services to its clients, including NRI banking, depository services, and many
moreprograms. With over 10 million users, it has a sizable consumer base. When it first opened, it was
known as Travancore Federal Bank, but that name was later altered.
Additionally, it has a branch in Ahmedabad, home to the nation's first IFSC (GIFT city).

2.4.7 Bandhan Bank

Bandhan Bank, which was established in August 2015, is a division of the reputable Bandhan Financial
Holdings Limited (BFHL). With 501 outlets currently, it is in the early stages of extending its network.
Chandra Shekhar Ghosh, who is currently the CEO of the bank as well, founded it.
It announced the acquisition of the "GRUH"-branded Housing Development Finance Corporation Ltd.
in 2019. The bank was first established with the intention of helping members of India's lower social
groups.Currently, Kolkata, West Bengal, serves as its corporate headquarters.

2.4.8 City Union Bank

This Indian bank, formerly known as Kumbakonam Bank Limited, was founded in 1904 by three well-
known individuals: R. Santhanam Iyer, S. Krishna Iyer, and V. Krishnaswami Iyengar.
The City Union Bank provides numerous financing choices and online banking services. These services
include chatbots, social media banking through Facebook, kiosks for producing passbooks and clearing
checks, CUB QR facilities, and more. For the first thirty years of its existence, the bank's headquarters
in Tamil Nadu did not have any expansion plans

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2.4.9 IDBI Bank

This 1964-founded bank has a network that includes 1892 bank locations and 3683 ATMs. It was
established to provide long-term lending facilities for businesses and agriculture. In 2006, the bank
only made one acquisition. It increased the number of branches by acquiring Union Western Bank.

2.4.10 CSB Bank

Catholic Syrian Bank, one of India's oldest banks, was established back in 1920. With only 450 bank
branches as of now, the bank is not particularly well-known. The bank has more than 3200 people who
work mostly in the corporate banking, retail banking, SME banking, and treasury operations areas.

2.4.11 DCB Bank

The 18 Indian states and 2 Union territories that make up DCB Bank Limited are served by this modern
bank. They promote technical progress and offer top-notch financial services in sectors including
SMEs, retail, cooperative banks, etc.
Since its founding in the 1930s, it has been managed and run by professionals within the business. It
supports innovation while taking into account the requirements of both the present and the future
generations.

2.4.12 Dhanlaxmi Bank

One of India's most respectable and reliable banks is Dhanlaxmi Bank. It was founded in 1927, and
Thrissur,Kerala, serves as its registered office. It has 245 branches and is widely spread around the
nation. Prior to this, it had partnerships with other businesses and service providers, including AGS
Infotech and Bajaj Allianz Life Insurance.

2.4.13 IDFC First Bank

With its lavish product lineup, IDFC First Bank is daily attracting new clients. When it was established
in 2015, its main objective was the construction of infrastructure for businesses in the private sector.
They announced a merger with Capital First three years later. They are spread out across the nation in
about 260branches.

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2.4.1 IndusInd Bank

This bank, which was influenced by the Indus Valley Civilization, is frequently referred to as the best
bankin India. The IndusInd Bank's corporate office is located in Mumbai, the world's financial center.
The 1994 S. P. Hinduja-founded bank has a wide banking network spanning 760 Indian areas. The bank
was initially founded to cater to the needs of NRI residents, but as time went on, they broadened the
scopeof their offerings to include different classes.

2.4.2 RBL Bank

One of the banks founded before independence is the RBL Bank, a less well-known institution. It was
started as Ratnakar bank in 1943. Babgonda Bhujgonda Patil and Gangappa Siddappa Chougule, both
fromSangli, founded the bank, which is based in Mumbai. After a lengthy pause, the bank's name was
changedto RBL Bank in 2014. With more than 403 branches, it has expanded throughout PAN India.

2.4.3 Karnataka Bank

One of the private banks in India that cherishes its customers the most is Karnataka Bank. They treat
the various categories of customers differently, making them feel valued. The bank offers a wide range
of products suitable for business use, marketing campaigns, and domestic use.
B. R. Vysaray Achar founded the Karnataka Bank in 1924 in a small Karnataka town. There are up to
952ATMs and 857 bank branches in it. It provides excellent services including insurance coverage, FX
trading,online banking, etc.

2.4.4 Nainital Bank

Nainital provides intensive service to a tiny consumer base through its 162 bank branches. It was
foundedin Nainital in 1922 to address the area's financial requirements. Founder Govind Ballabh Pant
initiated it. However, the Bank of Baroda bought 99 percent of the bank's shares in 1975. In addition,
the bank has connections to HDFC Bank, National Insurance Company Ltd., and other institutions.

2.4.5 South Indian Bank

With the growth of the Swadeshi movement, the bank was established in 1929. South Indian Bank, with
itsheadquarters in Kerala, has 924 bank branches, giving it a respectable national footprint. It is well
renowned as the first bank in Kerala to use the core banking system. They have a positive market
reputation as a resultof their openness in business.
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2.4.6 J&K Bank

This bank, which was founded in 1938, is a major supplier of financial services in the region. Maharaja
Hari Singh established the Jammu and Kashmir Bank. The bank has recently gained notoriety for
making large contributions to the Digital India agenda. It has 964 bank branches spread across the
nation's many regions. With numerous institutions and businesses, like PNB Bank, Mahindra &
Mahindra, etc., the bank participated in partnerships and collaborations.

2.4.7 Karur Vysya Bank

One of the top banks in India, Karur Vysya Bank was established in 1916. M. A. Venkataraman Chettiar
and Athi Krishna Chettiar founded the bank to help with the financial situation and economic needs in
Karur, Tamil Nadu. With 779 bank branches dispersed across the country, the bank has a strong
network. They support offering services that combine traditional and technological elements

2.4.8 Tamilnad Mercantile Bank

In Thoothukudi, the Tamilnad Mercantile Bank is a well-known institution. The bank, founded in 1921,
provides 509 bank branches and 1135 ATMs to the Indian community. Today, it offers services
includingonline banking, video conferencing, mobile banking, tab banking, etc. It was originally known
as "Nadar Bank."

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2.5 Major Differences Between Private Banks & Government Banks in India

• The following points highlight the key differences between two types of banks in India, i.e.,
nationalized banks and private bank:
• "Who controls them" is the key difference between them. On the one hand, private persons are the
primary owners of banks that have been nationalized, while the government serves as the primary
controlling authority.
• Unlike private banks, which must register themselves under the Indian Companies Act, the
establishment of public banks is based on the adoption of an act in the Parliament.
• The foreign direct investment (FDI) stake in public banks is only 20%, whereas it is 74% in private
banks.
• More advanced technology is used by private banks than by governmental ones. Compared to
banks, the latter are slower to adjust to new changes.
• Compared to private banks, state banks have a wider scope and reach. The former, however, does
not offer appealing customer service options.
• While public banks strive to primarily assist the country's marginalized societies, banks' primarygoal
is to make a profit.
• Due to their extraordinary reach and reliable services, public banks have a larger customer base.
Additionally, promotions to high levels in banks are made only on the basis of performance.
However, it differs with public banks, where seniority is given greater preference for promotions.

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2.6 Local Area Banks

On the advice of the then-finance minister, the Local Area Bank Scheme was launched in August 1996.
LABs were established to make it possible for local institutions to mobilize rural savings while also
making them accessible for investments in the neighborhood. i.e., mostly in semi-urban and rural
areas, andconsisting of three adjacent districts.
LABs had to have a capital reserve of at least Rs. 5 crores.

2.7 Small Finance Banks

Small Finance Banks primarily target and cater to the demands of a particular demographic subset of
the general public.
Such banks must have a minimum paid-up capital of Rs. 100 crores.

The goal is to bring financial inclusion to areas of the economy that other banks do not serve. Small
business units, marginal farmers, micro- and small-scale industries, and unorganized sector
organizations are someof these categories

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Chapter 3: Research Methodology

3.1 Research Roots

The private banking sector plays an important role for the growth of the economy. This research project
aims to studying financial position of private banking sector companies and also aims to analyse its
value in the market by conducting a technical analysis. This will help us to understand whether investing
in theseprivate banking sector stocks is good investment decision for not. Again, the study also analyses
performance of large cap companies whose turnover is above 7500 cr. Their comparison is made for
their performance in different years. Fundamental analysis is carried out to predict long term investment
based on long term trends.

3.2 Scope of the study

The project is made by using tools such as fundamental analysis and ratio analysis. Further, the study
will be based on information of last few years. The analysis will be made by taking into consideration
several companies. The scope of this research project is limited. The scope of this research is limited
to only the fundamental analysis and technical analysis of the chosen stock of private banking sector.

3.3 Objectives of the study

• To study companies and analyze their financial position.

• To look at quantitative and qualitative aspects mainly for decisions: whether to invest or not.

• Suggestion and comments for holdings sell or buy position can be given to stockholders

• To examine the growth of Banking (private) sector.

3.4 Research design

The research conducted in this project is analytical in nature which is done through analysing financial
statements and stock trends of different large cap.

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3.5 Data collection method

All the data used in this research project is collected through secondary services. Data related to ratios
werecollected from official websites from the investor section. Another website referred for this project
is moneycontrol.com and investopedia.com

3.6 Advantages of Technical and Fundamental analysis

• The major advantage of technical analysis is that it gives immediate signals before there is any reversal
in the pattern.
• Using technical analysis, it helps to investors and traders to determine the risk propensity of a particular
stock. can also help to set stop loss held by the investors.
• Technical analysis is very important for all types of trading i.e., swing trading, intra-day trading,short
term investors as well as long term traders.
• Technical analysis is used to predict future of the market and investment opportunities in the stock
market. Market namely follows three types of trends i.e., uptrend, downtrend, or sidewaystrend.
• Fundamental analysis helps to find good companies which has high potential to grow in future in which
investor can invest
• Fundamental analysis can help the investor to earn more profit and also helps to making decisions for
investment purpose.
• Fundamental analysis gives real picture of the company.

• Fundamental analysis help investor to understand about the business and business model of sector.

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Limitation of Technical and Fundamental analysis

• In technical analysis there is no full guarantee of success. whenever a possible entry and exit is
established, it does not fully guarantee you successful trade. It might result into failure.
• Many at times it can happen that signal is generated tend to drop, by the time a distinct signal is
generated price action of stock could be over.
• Many technical analysts may have different opinion about same stock. So, style could depend
from one critic to another.
• It is also said that history doesn’t repeat itself analysts sometimes find it useless.

• Fundamental analysis is very time consuming as it involves more effort. That’s why many people
avoid getting into fundamental analysis.
• In fundamental analysis it has happen most of the time that if one identifies undervalue stock and
invests into it is not necessary that stock will go up quickly it has happened many time that stock
is traded below its value.
• As all the information in always available to public these makes fundamental analysis very less
accurate.

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Chapter 4: Fundamental Analysis

Fundamental analysis refers to the study of the core underlying elements that influence the economy of
a particular entity. It is a method of study that attempts to predict price action and market trends by
analysing economic indicators, government policy and societal factors (to name just a few elements)
within a businesscycle framework.
Fundamental Analysis: Two Approaches

While carrying out fundamental analysis, investors can use either of the following approaches:

1. Top-down approach: In this approach, an analyst investigates both international and national
economicindicators, such as GDP growth rates, energy prices, inflation and interest rates. The search
for the best security then trickles down to the analysis of total sales, price levels and foreign competition
in a sector inorder to identify the best business in the sector.

2. Bottom-up approach: In this approach, an analyst starts the search with specific businesses,
irrespectiveof their industry/region.

Fundamental Analysis: How Does It Work?

Fundamental analysis is carried out with the aim of predicting the future performance of a company. It
is based on the theory that the market price of a security tends to move towards its 'real value' or
'intrinsic value. Thus, the intrinsic value of a security being higher than the security's market value
represents a timeto buy. If the value of the security is lower than its market price, investors should sell
it.

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STEPS TO FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS:

1. Economic analysis

2. Industry analysis

3. Company analysis

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS: To get an insight into the complexities of the stock market, one need to
developa sound economic understanding and be able to interpret the impact of important economic
indicators on stock markets Important economic analysis indicators: inflation, foreign exchange
reserves. government policy, interest rates, are some of the important economic indicators.

INDUSTRY ANALYSIS: The second face of fundamental analysis consists of a detailed analysis of a
specific industry; its characteristics, its past record, its future prospects. The purpose of industry analysis
is to identify those industries which are likely to grow in the future and to invest in equity share of
companiesselected from such industries.

COMPANY ANALYSIS: At the company level, fundamental analysis may involve examination of
financial data. management, business concept and competition. Financial statements are the medium
by which a company discloses information concerning its financial performance. The fundamental
analyst uses the quantitative information gleaned from financial statements to make investments
decisions.

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4.1 Economic Analysis

4.1.1 GDP: - Economic analysis examines factors at play in the economy that have an impact on
the bankingindustry. The GDP is the best indicator of any economy. The second-fastest expanding
economy in the world is the Indian economy. Traditional village farming, modern agriculture,
handicrafts, a broad range ofcontemporary businesses, and a vast variety of services are all part of
India's varied economy. With less than one-third of the workforce, services account for more than half
of India's output and the country's economic growth. The banking business is a source of funding for
this service sector. The banking sector is the engine of the economy, supplying it with liquidity. In
India's service industry, the banking sector maintained a significant place. The expansion of the
economy has a direct impact on the banking sector.

4.1.2 Inflation: - A general rise in prices assessed against a general level of purchasing power is
referred to as inflation. The RBI uses instruments including the CRR (Cash Reserve Ratio), repo
(Repurchase) Rate,and reverse repo Rate to manage inflation.
The amount of cash that banks must maintain with the RBI is known as CRR. This Ratio primarily
serves to ensure the bank's solvency and to remove extra funds from the banks. In order to reduce the
quantity ofmoney that banks have available, RBI decided to boost this percentage in order to manage
the rate of inflation increase.
The repo rate is the rate at which the RBI loans banks short-term funds. RBI raises the repo rate to
combatinflation, which raises the cost of borrowing money from RBI. The rate at which banks deposit
surplus short-term liquidity with the RBI is known as the reverse repo rate. When the RBI believes
there is too much money floating about in the financial system, it will employ this mechanism. The
RBI will borrow money from the banks at a higher interest rate if the reverse repo rate rises. Banks
would therefore chooseto preserve their funds with the RBI.

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4.2 Risk involved in the Banking Sector

The risks associated with providing banking services differ by the type of service rendered. Risk is the
danger of an adverse deviation in the actual result from an expected result. High returns are said to also
accompany high risk. So, the risks involved in the banking sector are:

4.2.1 Credit risk

Credit risk is the possibility that a bank borrower or counterparty won't fulfil their commitments in line
with the terms set forth in the contract. It is the unfavourable outcome linked to contract breaches or
defaultsin lending operations brought on by a decline in the counterparty's credit quality. By keeping
credit risk exposure within reasonable bounds, credit risk management aims to increase a bank's risk-
adjusted rate ofreturn. Banks must manage both the overall portfolio's inherent credit risk and the risk
associated with specific credits or transactions. Banks should take into account how credit risk and
other risks are related. The effective management of credit risk is a critical component of a
comprehensive approach to risk management and essential to the long-term success of any banking
organization. It consists of:

a. Counterparty default risk: this refers to the possibility that the other party in contract in an
agreement will default.

b. Securitization risk: Inadequate risk management of securitization was the cause of the recent
economiccatastrophe that sparked a global recession. By grouping debt instruments into a pool and then
issuing newsecurities backed by the pool, securitization is a method of dispersing risk. Securitizations
can be classifiedas either "traditional" or "synthetic." In a "classic" securitization, an originating bank
transfers a group of its own assets to a special purpose vehicle that it does not know or trust. In contrast,
a "synthetic" securitization is one in which the originator bank retains legal ownership of the underlying
pool of assets and merely transfers the credit risk related to it through the use of credit-linked notes or
credit derivatives.

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c. Concentration risk: It is any exposure, whether it be a single exposure or a collection of exposures,


thathas the potential to result in losses that are sizable enough (relative to a bank's capital, total assets, or
overallrisk level) to endanger a bank's health or its ability to continue carrying out its core functions.
4.2.2 Market risk

Market risk is the risk of possible losses in, on- balance sheet and off-balance sheet positions, due to
movement in the market prices. The market risk positions, subject to capital charge requirement, are:

a. Interest Rate Risk (IRR): The risks pertaining to interest rate related instruments and equities in the
trading book. IRR is defined as the change in bank's portfolio value due to interest rate fluctuations.The
IRR management in concerned with measurement and control of risk exposures, both in tradingbook
(i.e., assets that are regularly traded and are liquid in nature) and the banking book (i.e., assetsthat are
usually held till maturity and rarely traded).

b. Equity Price Risk: the risk arising due to fluctuation in market prices of equity due to general-
market related operations.

4.2.3 Operational risk

Operational risk is defined as the risk to loss resulting from inadequate or failed internal processes,
peopleand systems or external events. This does not include strategic and reputational risk. Some of
the factors for operational risk could be lack of competent management or proper planning and controls,
incompetent staff, indiscipline, involvement of staff in frauds, outdated systems, non-compliance,
programming errors, failure of computer systems, increased competition, deficiency in loan
documentation etc.

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4.2.4 Liquidity risk

Liquidity risk arises from the bank's inability to meet its obligation when they come due. The various
typesof liquidity risks are:
a. Term Liquidity Risk: this risk arises due to unexpected prolongation of the capital commitment
period in lending transactions. It is the unexpected delay in the repayment.
b. Withdrawal/Call Risk: it is the risk that more deposits will be withdrawn than expected. When
large number of deposits are taken away from the bank in a relatively span of time, it raises the risk
that bank will not be able to meet all its obligations.
c. Structural Liquidity Risk: it is the risk that rises when the necessary funding transactions cannot
be carried out. The risk is sometime also called as funding liquidity risk.
d. Contingent Liquidity Risk: it is the risk associated with funding additional funds or replacing
maturingliabilities under potential, future stressed market conditions.
e. Market Liquidity Risk: this is a risk which arises when positions cannot be sold within desired
time period or could only be sold at a discount. This is especially the case with securities/derivatives in
illiquidmarkets, or when bank hold such a large position that they cannot be easily sold.

4.2.5 Other risks

a. Strategic Risk: it refers to the negative impact on capital and earnings due to business policy
decisions, changes in the macroeconomic environment, insufficient implementation of decisions or
failure to adopt inthe changing economic environmental conditions.
b. Reputation Risk: it is the potential adverse effect that a bank can have if its reputation deviates
negativelyfrom its expected position. A bank's reputation refers to its image in the eyes of interested
public; the stakeholders.

c. Capital Risk: it is the imbalance in the internal capital structure in relation to the nature and size
of the bank, or from difficulties associated with raising additional risk coverage capital quickly, if
necessary.

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d. Earnings Risk: this risk arises due to inadequate diversification of bank's earnings or its inability
toattain sufficient and lasting profitability.
4.3 Ratio Analysis4.3.1
• Debt to Equity - Calculated by dividing a company's total liabilities by its shareholder equity, the debt-
to-equity (D/E) ratio is used to assess a company's financial leverage.
• Return on Assets (ROA) - It is a financial measure that shows how profitable a firm is in comparison
to its total assets.
• Earnings yield - This is the result of dividing the current share price by the earnings per share for a
given financial period. Investors can determine how much he has earned per share using the earnings
yield.
• Return on capital employed (ROCE) - It is a financial measure that may be used to evaluate the
profitability and capital efficiency of a company.

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4.4.2 P/E Ratio

P/E Ratio is one of the most widely used tools for stock selection. It is calculated by dividing of the
stock by its earning per share (EPS). It shows the sum of money you are ready to pay for each rupee
worth of theearnings of the company.
PE Ratio = Market price of Share
Earnings Per Share

The price-earnings ratio (P/E) allows you to compare the stock price to the earnings of a company. This
comparison aids in determining if equities are overvalued or undervalued relative to the market.
The Price Earnings Ratio is a crucial tool for comparing the market values of specific stocks or entire
stockindices, like the Nifty or our NBFC index. Learn more about price-earnings ratios in this article,
includinghow to calculate them and how they can assist you in making wise investment choice.

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Divide the stock price by the price-earnings ratio to get the price-earnings ratio. Consider it in this way.
The market price of a stock indicates how much you are willing to pay to own the stock, but the price-
earnings ratio accurately reflects the company's potential profit and its value over time. I will show you
how.
Company
P/E Ratio Stock Type
Name

HDFC Bank 19.3 Undervalued

ICICI Bank 17.2 Undervalued

Kotak Mahindra 23.06 Overvalued

Axis Bank 22.75 Undervalued

IndusInd Bank 13.16 Undervalued

AU Small Financ 30.51 Overvalued

Average = 214.83/10
IDBI Bank 14.41 Undervalued

Yes Bank 55.24 Overvalued

Federal Bank 8.90 Undervalued

City Union Bank 10.30 Undervalued

Total 214.83

Table 2 Categorizing on the basis of P/E ratio

Interpretation: This is the private banking sector index I created with companies more than Rs 7500 cr.
Then we find every company PE ratio either by calculating or it is easily available for us to use. After
we get every company’s PE ratio, we will get the average PE which can also be called as the index PE
or the sector PE. In this case it is 19.184.

Overvaluation and undervaluation of stock After we get the average PE of the private banking sector
index, we categorize the companies to overvaluedstock and undervalued stocks. The companies that are
below the average PE are considered as undervaluedcompanies and the companies that have a PE higher
than the industry PE are considered as overvalued companies.

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Chapter 5: Technical Analysis

Technical analysis is the study of market action, primarily through the use of charts, for the purpose of
forecasting future price trends. It is a method of predicting price movements and future market trends.
Technical analysis proposes that all information about the market price and its future fluctuation is
contained in a price chain. All the factors that have some influence on the price, be it economic, political
or psychological has already been considered and included in the price of that stock.

HOW IS TECHNICAL ANALYSIS DONE?

Technical analysis is based on the premise that price discounts every aspect and information in the
market. Technical analysis is also based on the belief that price movements are never completely
arbitrary and follow a trend. A technical analyst believes that it is possible to identify an ongoing trend,
trade based on the trend and generate profits as the trend unfolds.

The methods used for technical analysis are

1. Moving averages: This method is used to identify various support and resistance levels for the short
andlong term. The most commonly used moving averages are the 30-day moving average (DMAs) and
200- day moving average (DMAs).

2. Charts and patterns: Extensive charts are made based on historical data on price movements.
These charts are used to identify patterns and shapes, such as double top, double bottom, head and
shoulders andtriple bottom.

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TECHNICAL INDICATORS:

There is a vast number of elaborated technical indicators:

RELATIVE STRENGTH INDEX-RSI: The Relative Strength Index Technical Indicator (RSI) is a
price- following oscillator that ranges between 0 and 100. When Wilder introduced the Relative
Strength Index, he recommended using a 14-day RSI. Since then, the 9-day and 25-day Relative
Strength Index indicatorshave also gained popularity.

ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: The "advance/decline line" shows, for some period, the cumulative
difference between advancing and declining issues.
CLOSING TICK: "Closing tick" is the difference between the number of shares that closed on an
uptickand those that closed on a downtick
CLOSING ARMS: "Closing arms" or "trin" (trading index) is the ratio of average trading volume in
declining issues to average trading volume in advancing issues.
Z-BLOCK TRADES: "Block trades" are trades in excess of 10,000 shares.

HI-LO-CLOSE CHART: A hi-lo-close chart is a bar chart showing, for each day. the high price, low
price,and closing price.
CANDLESTICK CHART: A candlestick chart is an extended version of the hi-lo- close chart. It plots
thehigh, low, open, and closing prices, and also shows whether the closing price was above or below
the opening price.

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5.1 Trends

Before starting with the core technical study, one should know the basics of Trends. There are three
typesof trends found in the market, which are Uptrend, Downtrend, and Consolidation.

5.1.1 Uptrend:

An uptrend depicts a stock's price movement when the overall trend is higher. Each new high that is
reachedduring an upswing surpasses the former highs that were established. Thus, higher lows and
higher highs characterize the uptrend. The uptrend is still visible as long as the price keeps making
higher lows and higher highs. It means that basically the demand is greater than the supply and the
price rises. The uptrendline has a positive slope and is formed by connecting two or more low points.
The second low must be higher than the first low for the line to have a positive slope.

5.1.2 Downtrend:

A downtrend depicts a stock's price movement when the overall trend is downward. Each new low in
a downtrend is lower than the previous ones established earlier in the trend. Thus, lower lows and lower
highsmake up the downtrend. The downtrend is still visible as long as the price is making these lower
lows and

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lower highs. It means that supply exceeds demand and prices fall. The downtrend line has a negative
slopeand is formed by connecting two or more high points. The second height must be lower than the
first heightfor the line to have a negative slope.

5.1.3 Consolidation Trend: A stock that is neither reversing nor continuing a wider price trend
is said to be in consolidation. Until another pattern emerges, consolidated equities typically provide
few trading opportunities and trade within constrained price ranges. A stock experiences the same highs
and lows during consolidation. Consolidation periods are perceived as cautious and indecisive by
technical analysts and stock brokers.

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5.2 Mainly technical analysis consists of three types:

5.2.1 Long term

long term technical analysis includes trends such as uptrend, down trend, sidewise trend, side upper
trend and side lower trend. It includes patterns such as rounding bottom, cup with handle, bump and run
reversal,head and shoulder top, double top trend and double bottom trend.

As you can see in the above figure i.e., an example of long term, in which a pattern called head and
shoulders top is forming where After an advance, a head and shoulders top pattern develops, and its
completion signalsa trend reversal. The pattern consists of three sequential peaks, the head (centre peak)
being the highest andthe shoulders (outer peaks), both of which are low and fairly equal. Each peak's
response lows can be combined to create a neckline or support.

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5.2.2 Medium term

Medium term is also called as swing trading. It studies the trends between the periods of 1 to 3 years.
It includes patterns such as ascending triangle, descending triangle, symmetric triangle, rectangle
pattern andprice channel.

As you can see in the above figure i.e., an example of medium term, in which a pattern called price
channelis forming where A price channel is a type of continuation pattern that has an upper and lower
trendline and slopes up or down. Support and resistance are shown by the upper and lower trendlines,
respectively. Price channels with downward slopes are seen as bearish, and upward slopes as bullish.
A "bullish price channel" will be used to describe a channel with a positive slope, while a "bearish price
channel" will be used to describe a channel with a negative slope.

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5.2.3 Short term

Short term trend consists on the daily basis it indicates the hourly or sometimes the minute fluctuation
in trends. It includes patterns such as bar charts, candle stick, hammer hanging man, and inverted
hammer shooting star.

As you can see in the above figure i.e., an example of short term, in which a candlestick called doji is
forming where Doji candlesticks are significant candlesticks that offer information on their own and
also appear in several significant patterns. When a security's open and close are nearly equal, doji form.
The candlestick that results from varying the duration of the upper and lower shadows resembles a
cross, an inverted cross, or a plus sign. Doji patterns are impartial on their own. Any bias, whether bullish
or bearish,is based on past price activity and potential future confirmation. Both the singular and plural
forms of the term "Doji" are used.

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RSI CHART FOR HDFC BANK:

INTERPRETATION:

The analysis of research data reveals Relative Strength Index of HDFC Bank. It indicates that the
investorhas to sell the shares when the RSI goes above the 70 mark and the investor has to buy when
the RSI goesbelow the 30 marks

Since the RSI is below the 70 mark the investor is advised to buy the stock according to this technical
indicator.

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RSI CHART FOR AXIS BANK:

INTERPRETATION:

The analysis of research data reveals Relative Strength Index of Axis Bank. It indicates that the investor
has to sell the shares when the RSI goes above the 70 mark and the investor has to buy when the RSI
goesbelow the 30 marks.

Since the RSI is below the 70 mark the investor is advised to buy the stock according to this technical
indicator.

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Technical & Fundamental Analysis of the Private Banking Sector in India at Ghalla Bhansali Stock Brokers Pvt Ltd.

RSI CHART FOR ICICI BANK:

INTERPRETATION:

The analysis of research data reveals Relative Strength Index of ICICI Bank. It indicates that the
investor
has to sell the shares when the RSI goes above the 70 mark and the investor has to buy when the RSI
goesbelow the 30 marks.

Since the RSI is near the 70 mark the investor is advised to either sell or hold for the RSI mark to reach
70 and then sell the stock according to this technical indicator.

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MOVING AVERAGE FOR KOTAK MAHINDRA BANK:

INTERPRETATION:

The analysis of research data reveals moving average for Kotak Mahindra Bank. It indicates the investor
have to buy the shares of Kotak Bank when the price chart cuts the moving average and move above it
and the investor have to sell the shares when the price chart cuts the moving average and moves below
it.

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MOVING AVERAGE FOR AXIS BANK:

INTERPRETATION:

The analysis of research data reveals moving average for Axis Bank. It indicates the investor have to
buy the shares of Axis Bank when the price chart cuts the moving average and move above it and the
investor have to sell the shares when the price chart cuts the moving average and moves below it.

Since the price chart cuts the moving average chart and move above it, the investor can buy the stock
according to this technical indicator.

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ROC FOR ICICI BANK:

INTERPRETATION:

The analysis of research data reveals Rate of Change indicator of ICICI Bank. It indicates that the
investorhas to sell the shares when the ROC goes above the 0 mark and buy when it goes below the 0
mark.

Since the ROC is fluctuating above and below 0, so it is better to watch the market accurately whether
tobuy or sell the shares.

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ROC FOR AXIS BANK:

INTERPRETATION:

The analysis of research data reveals Rate of Change indicator of Axis Bank. It indicates that the
investorhas to sell the shares when the ROC goes above the 0 mark and buy when it goes below the 0
mark.

Since the ROC is fluctuating above and below 0, so it is better to watch the market accurately whether
tobuy or sell the shares.

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Chapter 6: Suggestions & Recommendations

Based on the findings and analysis in this study the following suggestions are made:

• The investors should study the current trend of the stock market in India before investing. Theinvestors
have to see the details of the bank in which they are going to invest.
• The long-term investment is good option for investors as the current time post covid the economyis
again started booming but at a casual stage.
• The investors should also not completely relay on market price to invest as there can be chances of
fluctuations.
• The investors should look for IndusInd Bank in private banking sector to invest because of the low
share price at an undervaluation.

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Chapter 7: CONCLUSION:

• Indian Banking Industry has gone through various phases of development in history.

• The deposits of banking companies are increasing with increase in GDP at market price.

• Banking companies in India differs in the shareholding pattern.

• The false alarm should be avoided by looking into recent news about banks and fundamental
analysis.
• The capital market goes through brisk changes; investors should look for right opportunities keepingin
tune with the dynamics of market environment.

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Chapter 8: BIBILOGRAPHY

• https://www.ghallabhansali.com

• https://www.screener.in/explore/

• https://in.tradingview.com/

• https://trendlyne.com/features/, n.d.

• https://www.jagranjosh.com/general-knowledge/list-of-all-public-and-private-sector-banks-in-india-
1582542534-1

• https://www.codeforbanks.com/banks/private-sector-banks/

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