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Understanding Conditional Probability

The document discusses conditional probability and provides examples and formulas to calculate conditional probability. It also includes sample probability questions and exercises for students to practice calculating conditional probability.

Uploaded by

mohamad.elali01
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd

Topics covered

  • Probability Theory,
  • Statistical Problems,
  • Mathematical Probability,
  • Event Outcomes,
  • Probability Concepts,
  • Probability Models,
  • Probability Frameworks,
  • Probability Assessment,
  • Mathematical Relationships,
  • Even Numbers
48 views5 pages

Understanding Conditional Probability

The document discusses conditional probability and provides examples and formulas to calculate conditional probability. It also includes sample probability questions and exercises for students to practice calculating conditional probability.

Uploaded by

mohamad.elali01
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd

Topics covered

  • Probability Theory,
  • Statistical Problems,
  • Mathematical Probability,
  • Event Outcomes,
  • Probability Concepts,
  • Probability Models,
  • Probability Frameworks,
  • Probability Assessment,
  • Mathematical Relationships,
  • Even Numbers

Conditional Probability

𝑟𝑒𝑑𝑢𝑐𝑒𝑑 𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑠𝑝𝑎𝑐𝑒


𝑃 𝐴 𝐵 =
𝑟𝑒𝑑𝑢𝑐𝑒𝑑 𝑠𝑎𝑚𝑝𝑙𝑒 𝑠𝑝𝑎𝑐𝑒

𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵)
𝑃 𝐴 𝐵 =
𝑃(𝐵)
Example
The probability of an event could be affected when additional related
information about the experiment is known. Conditional probability allows
us to calculate the probability with this additional information.

If you guess at the answer to a multiple choice question having 5 choices


1
then the probability you will get the correct answer is .
5
However if you know that 2 of the answers are incorrect and can be ignored
1
the probability increases to .
3
This is known as Conditional Probability.
Formula:
𝑃(𝐴∩𝐵)
The probability of an event A given event B: 𝑃 𝐴 𝐵 =
𝑃(𝐵)
𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵)
𝑃 𝐴 𝐵 =
𝑃(𝐵)
Suppose a conventional die is tossed once
(i) What is the probability that the result is a prime number
given that an odd number has turned up?
Short Hand: 𝑃 𝑃𝑟𝑖𝑚𝑒 𝑂𝑑𝑑

𝑃(𝑃𝑟𝑖𝑚𝑒 ∩ 𝑂𝑑𝑑) (ii) Probability is even given less than 4:


𝑃 𝑃𝑟𝑖𝑚𝑒 𝑂𝑑𝑑 =
𝑃(𝑂𝑑𝑑)
2 𝑃(𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑛 ∩< 4)
=6 𝑃 𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑛 < 4 =
𝑃(< 4)
3 1
6
=6
3
2 6
=
3 1
=
3
Exercise Yr. 10 Cambridge p.149
The two table display shows information about the number of elements associated with the events A and B. Find:

𝑃(𝐴∩𝐵) 𝑃(𝐵∩𝐴)
(a) 𝑃 𝐴 𝐵 = (b) 𝑃 𝐵 𝐴 =
𝑃(𝐵) 𝑃(𝐴)
4 4
16 16
= 6 = 12
16 16
2 1
= =
3 3
Exercise
Students do exercise 3D, p. 148, q1 to q7

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