Conditional Probability
The probability of an event could be affected when additional related information about the
experiment is known.
Examples:
1. If you guess at the answer to a multiple choice question having 5 choices then the probability
1
you will get the correct answer is 5 . However if you know that 2 of the answers are incorrect and
1
can thus be ignored the probability increases to 3 . This is known as Conditional Probability.
2. Suppose conventional die is tossed once.
(i) What is the probability that the result is a prime
number given that an odd number has turned up?
Short Hand
P ( Prime|Odd )
With a little bit of a thought.
The question has asked us to reduce the sample
space to the set of primes.
2
Thus P ( Prime|Odd )=
3
(ii) Find the following conditional probability for this experiment:
P ( even|less than 4 ) Reduced Sample Space
Venn Diagram
1
Therefore P ( even|less than 4 )=
3
Two Table Reduced Sample Space
Even Not Even Even
(Odd) <4 1 3
<4 1 2 3
Not < 4 2 1 3
(≥ 4) 1
Therefore P ( even|less than 4 )=
3 3 6 3
Summary
Observe Observe
2 1
P ( Prime ∩Odd) 6 P (even ∩< 4) 6
P ( Prime|Odd )= ¿ P ( even|¿ 4 )= ¿
P(Odd) 3 P(¿ 4) 3
6 6
2 1
¿ ¿
3 3
Conditional Probability Formula
The probability of A given B The sample space is reduced
P( A ∩ B)
P ( A|B )=
P( B)
Proof: (Only for the interested)
n ( A ∩ B)
n ( A ∩B ) n(S) P (A ∩B)
P ( A|B )= ¿ ¿
n( B) n (B) P(B)
n(S)
Examples: Cambridge p. 147
2 1
(i) P ( A|B )= =
6 3
2
(ii) P ( B| A )=
5
2
(i) P ( B ∩ A )=
15
5
(ii) P ( B| A ¿=
13
5
(iii) P ( A|B )=
7
