Bill Clinton and economic uncertainty?

In 1992, the US elected Bill Clinton for the first time. In the days following his
election, the benchmark price of oil (Dated Brent, Platts) declined from $19.46/b
on November 9 to a low of $16.56/b ― losing nearly 15% ― before climbing again
after his inauguration. An argument could be made that Clinton 1.0 was untested
economically, leading to market uncertainty initially. Prices rallied in late
January after Saudi Arabia called on OPEC to cut production by more than 1 million
b/d.

Price of oil (Dated Brent) 90 days after 1992 US presidential election

Bill Clinton 2.0: A rise, a drop and relative stability

On November 5, 1996, the US re-elected Bill Clinton to a second term. Contrary to

1992, the benchmark price of oil (Dated Brent, Platts) gained immediately the month
after the election from $21.77/b to $25.11/b on December 5 ― firming 15.3% before
dropping to $22.56/b, followed by some strengthening. Largely range-bound, the
price averaged $23.37/b in the 90 days after Election Day.

Price of oil (Dated Brent) 90 days after 1996 US presidential election

George W. Bush: Clinton v.1 redux?

The first week after George W. Bush was elected on November 7, 2000, the benchmark
price of oil (Dated Brent, Platts) gained nearly $3/b, but then plunged from
$34.40/b to a low of $21.56/b by December 20 – a decline of 37.3%. Concerns of an
economic recession pulled prices lower. Also, Iraqi crude exports, which had been
suspended, looked to be returning as Iraq negotiated with the UN to resolve a
pricing dispute under the oil-for-food program. Mirroring the first Clinton days,
the price gradually strengthened, spiking after the inauguration. OPEC at the time
was set to cut production by 1.5 million b/d starting February 1.

Price of oil (Dated Brent) 90 days after 2000 US presidential election

Second terms more stable for oil?

Bush’s re-election to a second term saw the benchmark price of oil (Dated Brent,
Platts) immediately dip from the mid-$40s/b to high-$30s, followed by an upswing, a
couple of falls and then further strengthening after January. Less volatility was
evident than post-November 2000, and the price averaged $42.14/b in the 90 days
after Bush was elected to another term. The return of US Gulf Coast crude following
Hurricane Ivan pulled prices lower in November, while a December 10 OPEC decision
to cut crude, followed by expectations of further cuts, rallied prices early in
2005.

Price of oil (Dated Brent) 90 days after 2004 US presidential election

Barack Obama: Hope and change doesn’t help oil

As with Bill Clinton’s and George W. Bush’s first terms, the benchmark price of oil
(Dated Brent, Platts) eroded immediately after Barack Obama was elected on November
4, 2008 — but this was also skewed by the global economic collapse. The price
plunged from $63.77/b to a low of $33.66/b on December 24 — a massive decline of
47.2%. The price strengthened sharply to $48.64/b by January 6, leveling off
through early February.

Price of oil (Dated Brent) 90 days after 2008 US presidential election

Obama revisited: Steady uptick for oil

President Obama’s re-election on November 6, 2012, to a second term saw the

benchmark price of oil (Dated Brent, Platts) grow quite steadily from $108.46/b the
day after his re-election over the next 90 days to $117/b on February 5 — a modest
gain of nearly 8%. Geopolitics played a role in the January rally, with Iran moving
toward advanced uranium enrichment, for instance, and opposition growing in Iraq to
Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki.

Price of oil (Dated Brent) 90 days after 2012 US presidential election