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DOI: 10.1016/j.tfp.2023.100491

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Trees, Forests and People 15 (2024) 100491

Contents lists available at ScienceDirect

Trees, Forests and People


journal homepage: www.sciencedirect.com/journal/trees-forests-and-people

Two-decadal climate impacts on growth of major forest types of


Eastern Himalaya
Rajdeep Chanda , Salam Suresh Singh , Ngangbam Somen Singh , Keshav Kumar Upadhyay , Shri
Kant Tripathi *
Department of Forestry, School of Earth Sciences and Natural Resource Management, Mizoram University, Aizawl, Mizoram, India

A R T I C L E I N F O A B S T R A C T

Keywords: Forests affect regional climates, livelihoods and global cycles of water, carbon and nitrogen. Anthropogenic
Climate variables activities and climatic change affect forest health and national growth. Therefore, developing effective forest
Edaphic factors management plans requires understanding of the drivers of forest growth. The primary objective of this study
Vegetation indices
was to understand the long-term effect of abiotic factors on the growth of forests in the region. This study used
EVI
MODIS
Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data for vegetation indices like NDVI and EVI and
NDVI NASA’s Land Assimilation datasets (wind speed, evapotranspiration, soil moisture and temperature) to under­
stand their role on forest growth through statistical techniques such as Pearson’s correlation and Multiple Linear
Regression. The study examined the relationship between standard monthly vegetation indices and abiotic
variables (i.e., moisture and temperature at different soil profiles up to 2 m depth, land surface temperature,
evapotranspiration, relative humidity, wind velocity, and air temperature at 2 m height) in selected forests of the
Eastern Himalayas for two decades (2001–2020, n = 240). Rainfall, temperature, and other associated factors
significantly affected forest growth in the region. It was observed that rainfall alone affected forest growth in the
region. However, its impact was maximum after two months of the rain events, reflecting a significant lag effect.
Soil moisture at different depths affected vegetation growth in all forest types. Reduced soil moisture had a more
significant effect on old-growth forests than younger forests. Multiple Linear Regression models developed with
the abiotic factors explained higher variability in forest growth. In conclusion, this study reveals that rainfall,
temperature, and their associated variables significantly affected forest growth in the study area. The study has
significant implications for forest management in the region for formulating better strategies to mitigate climate
change effects on forests in the region in future.

1. Introduction 2017; Wapongnungsang et al., 2018; Beugnon et al., 2023). As a result,


in addition to influencing the local weather patterns of a region, forests
Forests are dynamic components that affect the Earth’s climate sys­ are superior to any other ecosystems in terms of cycling carbon and
tem in several ways, for instance, absorbing carbon dioxide from the nutrients. However, local meteorological circumstances and abiotic
atmosphere through photosynthesis and sequestering it in the tree variables strongly affect the carbon and nutrient cycling rates (Chen
biomass and soil for its more extended residence (Ao et al., 2023). Short et al., 2018).
and long-term biotic and abiotic changes that occur over a year or for Forest microclimates are therefore essential to consider in ecological
decades alter the rate and efficiency of forest productivity by affecting research for a comprehensive understanding of the factors that influence
the process of photosynthesis (Davis et al., 2022). Further, changes in changes in forest cover in relation to various climatic variables (De
photosynthesis have far-reaching consequences on the ability of forests Frenne et al., 2021). Furthermore, buffer zones created by protected
to capture carbon that may affect the region’s sustainable development. forests help mitigate the destructive effects of climate change on local
Trees in a forest ecosystem add carbon and nutrients to the soil upon economies by controlling various ecosystem processes (Siyum, 2020).
their death, which energise microbes to degrade soil organic matter into Therefore, it is essential to learn how climate change affects pre-existing
nutrients, promoting forest growth and regeneration (Pandey et al., forest vegetation reserves so that preventative actions and adaptive

* Corresponding author.
E-mail address: sk_tripathi@rediffmail.com (S.K. Tripathi).

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tfp.2023.100491

Available online 1 January 2024


2666-7193/© 2023 Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).
R. Chanda et al. Trees, Forests and People 15 (2024) 100491

measures may be developed to conserve the forest and improve the terrestrial ecosystems. In tropical forests, evapotranspiration rates are
livelihoods of the region under the changing climate (Sanogo et al., reported to be 1080 mm year− 1, which is more than 80 % higher than
2021). Most studies on forest biodiversity rely on gridded macroclimate tropical grasslands, which register at 580 mm year− 1 as per satellite
data, which are based on rainfall and temperature patterns based on retrievals (Schlesinger and Jasechko, 2014). Further, the same authors
weather stations located in open areas outside the forests. Hence, many reported that transpiration is a significant determinant of rainfall and
forest and climate analyses (precipitation and temperature effects) could microclimate of a region that indicate the significance of vegetation in
not effectively capture the fluctuations in forest microclimate at small the global water cycle, as in the case of tropical rainforests of the
spatio-temporal scales (Potter et al., 2013). Amazon.
Remote sensing via satellite imagery is a cost-effective and efficient The Himalayas, famous as the "abode of snow," are highly significant
method of mapping forests (Navalgund et al., 2007), which has because of the way they have shaped the South Asian culture and the
contributed to our understanding of terrestrial processes and the crea­ environment for thousands of years. Significant studies have been car­
tion of geodatabases on vegetation structure and dynamics (Roy et al., ried out in the region to study the impact of climate on forests. Kumar
2013). Satellite imagery has become a cost-effective and efficient tool et al. (2019) showed that 80 % of the region is vulnerable to climate
for understanding the terrestrial plant structure and dynamics and change because of various expansion activities in the western Himalayas
building databases for vegetation processes through accurate vegetation of the Indian region. The Eastern Himalayas, spread across the five
mapping over the last few decades (Lechner et al., 2020). These datasets South Asian nations (China, India, Bhutan, Nepal, and Myanmar), are an
might provide an upper edge to the studies of forest dynamics by expansive mountain range consisting of rich varieties of flora and fauna.
providing a range of satellite-based modelled characteristics, which are Northeastern parts of India, like Arunachal Pradesh, Sikkim, Assam,
the most effective methods that can be used to solve the challenge of Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, Tripura, and Meghalaya, are integral
forest growth monitoring over complex terrains globally. Recent de­ parts of the Eastern Himalaya. This region is essential for several rea­
velopments in Remote Sensing (RS) and Geographical Information sons, including the cultural richness and ecological value because of the
Systems (GIS) have enabled us to examine many causes of forest dis­ vital ecosystem services they provide to the region (WWF-US, 2005).
turbances at different spatial scales (i.e., regional and global) (Wang Negi et al. (2022) showed that increasing temperatures in the eastern as
et al., 2010; Garbarino et al., 2023). RS datasets such as MODIS (Mod­ well as western Himalayas during the past two decades have resulted in
erate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer), NDVI and EVI are the melting of glaciers, which will be of significant concern for this
commonly used for wide locations to study the gaps in understanding ecologically sensitive region. Increasing anthropogenic (i.e., expansion
the driving forces that trigger forest growth and development at various of population, agricultural, tourism, etc.) loads for fuelwood and cattle
spatial scales. Vegetation indices indicate forest structure and can be feed in recent decades in this region have severely affected the health of
valuable for landscape planning and developing forest conservation and forests (Wani et al., 2013; Verma et al., 2021). As a result, plant diversity
restoration strategies (Freitas et al., 2005). and stocks of carbon and nutrients in forest soils have been declining at
The microclimate of a forest is of utmost importance as it is a alarming rates because of these pressures (Bisht et al., 2022). Therefore,
fundamental regulator of many vital ecosystem functions. In a forest it is critical to implement efficient management and conservation plans
environment, evaporative cooling, or transpiration, lowers the temper­ to minimise the impact of human activities in this region.
atures at the canopy and the soil surface (De Frenne et al., 2013). Due to Although many studies have been carried out focusing on forest
increased solar radiation and wind, there are sometimes substantial cover changes with respect to climate (rainfall, temperature, and rela­
microclimatic variations towards forest fringes. Thereby, small-scale tive humidity) and carbon stock, limited studies have been carried out
differences in sun fleck at the stand level generate substantial rises in that explain the effect of abiotic factors on forest growth. Thus, this
near-ground temperatures (Matlack, 1993). Many hydrological and study hypothesises that abiotic factors of the region shape forest struc­
forest biogeochemical processes rely heavily on edaphic variables like tures at large spatial and long temporal patterns. The main objective of
soil moisture from the surface (at 0–10 cm depth) to various rooting the present study is to investigate the role of abiotic factors (i.e., LST,
zones (up to 200 cm depth) through more profound and widespread root rainfall, air temperature, RH, wind speed, evapotranspiration, soil
systems (Wang and Qu, 2009). moisture and temperature up to 2 m depth) on vegetation growth (i.e.,
Air temperature plays a pivotal role in determining the vegetation NDVI and EVI) in long temporal (2001–2020) and large spatial scales
health of a forest in many ways, for example, changing temperature (different tropical, sub-tropical and temperate forests) of the Eastern
regimes influence plant life cycle events (i.e., phenology) to shift from Himalayas.
the regular times, such as early or late bud burst, leafing, flowering and
fruiting (Gebeyehu and Hirpo, 2019). Abnormal temperatures might 2. Study area
have a knock-on effect on forests by making them more susceptible to
insect infestations. Specific herbivore insect populations in a forest can The state of Mizoram represents the southern part of the Eastern
have their growth and development stimulated by other external factors, Himalayas, which is in the northeastern part of India and forms the
such as humidity, which negatively affect forest growth (Jaworski and North-East Biogeographic Zone of India (Fig. 1). The geographical
Hilszczański, 2014). Conditions of wind close to the ground affect the location of Mizoram ranges from 21◦ 56′N to 24◦ 31′N and 92◦ 16′E to
physiological processes in trees and their growth and survival ability. 93◦ 26′E. Being an integral part of the Eastern Himalayas, Mizoram has
The interactions between wind and trees can also occur across a vast the highest forest cover (84.53 %) as a percentage of the total
spectrum of spatio-temporal scales (Schindler et al., 2012). geographical area in the country (ISFR, 2021). Thus, it is essential to
Soil temperatures at varying depths also affect root growth and study forest cover change studies in this region. The climate of the re­
development by changing the expansion of root systems (McMichael and gion is usually on the cooler side, varying from wet tropical to sub­
Burke, 1998). Studies show that deforestation in many regions of the tropical. The annual precipitation of the state varies from 2100 mm to
world increases surface albedo, the proportion of incident solar radia­ 3500 mm (based on the total annual average from 2001 to 2020), while
tion reflected by the Earth’s surface, which contributes significantly to temperatures range from 11 ◦ C to 24 ◦ C in winter and 18 ◦ C to 29 ◦ C the
the stability of the energy levels of the planet. A dense forest’s albedo is summer. The rainy season typically lasts from May through September
typically lower than other land use patterns like cities or meadows (Fig. 2).
(Spracklen et al., 2018). Moreover, evapotranspiration is one of the This study was conducted in four protected forests and two com­
crucial biospheric processes that involve evaporating liquid water from munity forests of Mizoram, northeast India. The temperate Phawngpui
wet surfaces and plant tissues (Matin and Bourque, 2013), and thus, National Park, the Blue Mountains, is situated at elevations ranging from
forests showed higher rates of evapotranspiration than any other 1800 to 2157 m amsl (Table 1), characterised by a humid and sub-

2
R. Chanda et al. Trees, Forests and People 15 (2024) 100491

Fig. 1. Map of the study area.

Fig. 2. Climatogram of Mizoram from 1901 to 2020 showing mean annual temperatures (minimum, maximum and mean) and annual total rainfall (mm). Data
downloaded from https://climateknowledgeportal.worldbank.org.

tropical climate (Champion and Seth, 1968) and encompasses a total district of the state and extends across approximately 35 km2. In addi­
land area of 50 km2. The sub-tropical Dampa Tiger Reserve, the largest tion, two subtropical community forests—Hmuifang and Reiek were
protected area in the state, lies in the Mamit district and has an area of chosen for the study. While selecting the locations, it was kept in mind
approximately 500 km2, and average elevations range from 800 to 1100 that the region should be representative of a range of different elevations
m amsl. The sub-tropical Tawizo Wildlife Sanctuary lies in the Serchhip across the state. The study thus considers altitudes ranging from 70 m in

3
R. Chanda et al. Trees, Forests and People 15 (2024) 100491

Table 1
Description of the study sites.
Area Coordinates Elevation Forest type Dominant species
(metres)

Zawlnuam Bird 24.1351◦ N 70–90 Tropical wet Ulmus lanceifolia, Dipterocarpus retusus, Persea minutiflora, Macaranga indica, Dysoxylum
Sanctuary 92.3345◦ E evergreen binectariferum
Dampa Tiger Reserve 23.5034◦ N 800–1100 Tropical semi- Walsura robusta, Macaranga indica, Dysoxylum binectariferum, Tetrameles nudiflora,
92.4180◦ E evergreen Aporusa octandra Castanopsis purpurella
Tawizo Wildlife 23.5617◦ N 1400–1500 Sub-tropical Moist Litsea salicifolia, Macropanax dispermus, Mitragyna rotundifolia, Persia odoratissima,
Sanctuary 92.9555 ◦ E Helicia robusta
Hmuifang Community 23.4496◦ N 1500–1700 Sub-tropical Moist Wendlandia budleioides, Helicia robusta, Macaranga indica, Schima wallichi, Embelia
Forest 92.7587◦ E robusta, Castanopsis purpurella
Reiek Community 23.6938◦ N 1200–1300 Sub-tropical Moist Litsea salicifolia, Acrocarpus fraxinifolius, Magnolia hodgsonii, Canarium bengalense,
Forest 92.6070 ◦ E Albizia richardiana
Phawngpui National 22.6831◦ N 1900–2157 Temperate Rhododendron arboreum, Pinus kesiya, Engelhardtia spicata, Helicia robusta, Quercus
Park 93.0458 ◦ E leucotrichophora, Macropanax dispermus

the Zawlnuam tropical forest, one of the lowest elevation lands of the typical in heavily vegetated regions. In contrast, near-zero or negative
state, to the highest land of the state (2157 m) in the Blue Mountains. values are more typical in water and urban regions. It is given by Piao
Sub-tropical forests cover the majority of the forests of the region at et al., 2007 as:
mid-altitudes.
R(NIR) − R(RED)
NDVI =
R(NIR) + R(RED)
3. Materials and methods
R(NIR) and R(RED) are the reflectance values of near infrared and red
3.1. Collection of vegetation and climate data for the study
electromagnetic spectrum bands.
The monthly Vegetation Index products used for the study were
i) NDVI and EVI products
MOD13C2 Version 6 products, which provide a Vegetation Index (VI)
NDVI is one of the most popular and widely used remote sensing
value per pixel (250 m resolution). There are two primary layers of
indices. It is obtained by dividing the reflectance at the top of the at­
vegetation. The first dataset is the Normalised Difference Vegetation
mosphere in the red band (ρred) at 0.66 m by the reflectance in the near-
Index (NDVI), the continuity index to the existing NOAA-Advanced Very
infrared (NIR) band (ρnir) at 0.86 m. Positive NDVI values are more
High-Resolution Radiometer-derived NDVI.

Fig. 3. Flowchart of the study.

4
R. Chanda et al. Trees, Forests and People 15 (2024) 100491

The Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) is an optimised vegetation ∑n


index that aims to improve vegetation monitoring by de-coupling the i=1 (xi − x)(yi − y)
rxy = √̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅
∑n ̅
2 ∑n
canopy background signal and minimising the impact of the atmosphere i=1 (xi − x) i=1 (yi − y)
2

on the vegetation signal, which is especially useful in areas with a high


biomass density (Didan et al., 2015). EVI can be calculated using the where xi is the vegetation index value for the i th year/month; yi is the
formula: abiotic factor for the i th year/month; x is the average vegetation index
N− R for all years/months and y is the average value of the abiotic factor for
EVI = G all years/months (Guo et al., 2014). Pearson’s correlations were calcu­
N + C1 R − C2 B + L
lated using IBM SPSS Statistics Version 27.
where N, R, and B are atmospherically corrected or partially corrected
surface reflectance in the near-infrared, red, and blue bands, respec­ 3.3. Multiple regression analysis
tively; G is a gain factor; C1 and C2 are the coefficients of the aerosol
resistance term, which uses the blue bar to correct for aerosol influences Stepwise multiple linear regression is a statistical approach for
in the red band; and L is the soil-adjustment factor. The datasets were developing a regression model by automatically picking a subset of
first downloaded and then reprojected to the WGS84 datum using the predictor variables from a larger dataset through a computer program.
reprojection tool of ArcGIS software (Alcaras et al., 2020). Further, the The purpose is to identify the most essential variables having consid­
values were extracted for the specific study sites for the study period erable influence on predicting the dependent variable. This technique
(Fig. 3). Details of various datasets used in the study are given in Table 2. entails adding or eliminating variables based on specific criteria (F-
ii) MODIS Land Surface Temperature statistic threshold for entry: 0.05; F-statistic threshold for removal: 0.1)
Land Surface Temperature (LST) refers to the temperature at the at each phase. This helped us to determine the most influential factors
surface of the Earth. The product can be deduced from information from for the vegetation growth in the forests of our study area. The multi­
satellites or through direct measurements. It is a highly accurate variate regression model is given by Eberly (2007) as follows:
measuring device that can determine whether a steady flow of energy is ̂ = a0 + a1 X1 + … + ai Xi
Y
transferred back and forth between the Earth and the atmosphere. It
assists in investigating global climate change effects on forest cover. The where Ŷ is the dependent parameter being predicted, X0 represents the
LST product used for this study is the MODIS MOD11C3 monthly CMG intercept, i represents the number of independent variables and a1…i
LST at 0.05-degree spatial resolution (Wan et al., 2015). and X1…i are regression coefficients and values for the independent
iii) Precipitation Data abiotic variables, respectively. Vegetation indices (NDVI/ EVI) denoted
Gridded monthly rainfall data provided by NASA’s Global Precipi­ by Ŷ were taken as the dependent variables in our study, and abiotic
tation Measurement programme has been used for this study. The GPM parameters denoted by X1…i was taken as independent variables since
IMERG Final Precipitation L3 1 month 0.1-degree x 0.1-degree (10 km) we had to establish how various abiotic variables affect the changes in
V06 (GPM 3IMERGM) product was the one that was used in this study vegetation shifts in the study areas (He et al., 2013). For developing the
(Huffman et al., 2018). The data sets were retrieved in NetCDF formats. equations, Minitab Version 21.3.1 was used for developing the regres­
Then, with the help of programming languages, the data were extracted sion models. Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) and Bayesian Infor­
according to the site coordinates. mation Criterion (BIC) were used to evaluate the goodness of model fits.
iv) Other abiotic parameters AIC is calculated using the formula:
Besides Rainfall and Land Surface Temperature, six other monthly
averaged abiotic variables were considered for this study. These pa­ AIC = − 2 ∗ log − likelihood + 2 ∗ k,
rameters are near surface Wind speed, Soil temperature (0–10 cm,
10–40 cm, 40–100 cm, and 100–200 cm depths), Soil moisture (0–10 where "log-likelihood" is the maximised value of the likelihood function
cm, 10–40 cm, 40–100 cm, and 100–200 cm depths), total evapotrans­ for the estimated model, and "k" is the number of parameters in the
piration, relative humidity, and air temperature at 2 m. The datasets are model. Similarly, BIC is calculated using the formula:
part of the NASA-provided Famine Early Warning Systems Network BIC = − 2 ∗ log − likelihood + k ∗ log(n),
(FEWS NET) Land Data Assimilation System (FLDAS), which generates
simulated land surface parameters using the NOAH 3.6.1 model (Amy where "log-likelihood" is the maximised value of the likelihood function,
McNally, 2018). "k" is the number of parameters, and "n" is the sample size. The models
were validated by running the equations using the test set validation
3.2. Correlation analysis of vegetation indices and abiotic parameters function of the Minitab software where the models are run with training
sets that are divided from the actual observations and run separately
Karl Pearson’s correlation coefficient was used to analyse the linear from which the test R2 values are determined. The higher R2 values
relationship between rainfall and vegetation indices for the study re­ mean that the model is working efficiently. The detailed results are
gions (Pearson, 1909). The Pearson correlation coefficient provides a shown in Table 3.
value between +1 and − 1 inclusive (x and y variables). The formula for
Pearson’s correlation is:

Table 2
Details of various datasets used in the study.
Variables Data source Product used Resolution
Temporal Spatial

Rainfall GPM, NASA GPM 3IMERGM V06 1 month 10 km


Air Temperature MERRA-2, NASA M2IMNXASM V5.12.4 1 month ~50 km
Relative Humidity MERRA-2, NASA M2TMNPCLD V5.12.4 1 month ~50 km
Evapotranspiration, Soil Moisture, Soil Temperature, Windspeed FEWS NET, NOAH, NASA FLDAS_NOAH01_CP_GL_M 1 month 10 km
NDVI MODIS, NASA MOD13Q1 1 month 250 m
EVI MODIS, NASA MOD13Q1 1 month 250 m
LST MODIS, NASA MOD11C3 1 month 500 m

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R. Chanda et al. Trees, Forests and People 15 (2024) 100491

Table 3
Tabulated results of multiple linear regression of vegetation indices vs. abiotic parameters.
Site Regression equation Observed Adjusted Predicted AIC BIC Validation
R2 R2 R2 test R2

Zawlnuam Bird NDVI = 0.34 − 0.02*WS + 0.52*SM100–200 + 0.01*ST100–200 − 89.29 % 88.96 % 88.31 % − 719.47 − 698.30 93.48 %
Sanctuary 0.004*LST − 0.000068*RF + 0.001*RH
EVI = − 0.24 + 0.96*SM100–200 + 0.02*ST40–100 87.08 % 86.84 % 86.36 % − 564.91 − 549.66 87.92 %
Dampa Tiger NDVI = 0.72 − 0.03*WS + 0.25*SM100–200 + 0.009*ST100–200 + 76.17 % 75.58 % 74.23 % − 722.27 − 704.05 80.36 %
Reserve 0.004*LST − 0.01*T2M
EVI = 0.1241 + 0.329*SM40–100 + 0.43*SM100–200 + 69.69 % 69.32 % 68.70 % − 526.78 − 514.53 76.15 %
0.005727*ST0–10
Tawizo Wildlife NDVI = 0.49 − 0.79*SM0–10 + 0.88*SM40–100 + 0.02*ST100–200 − 83.28 % 82.87 % 82.04 % − 709.93 − 691.71 88.98 %
Sanctuary 0.007*LST + 0.0008*RH
EVI = − 0.06 − 1.02*SM 0–10 + 1.58*SM40–100 + 0.02*ST40–100 + 83.83 % 83.64 % 83.25 % − 567.47 − 555.22 76.73 %
0.000061*RF
Hmuifang NDVI = 0.62 − 0.02*WS − 0.36*SM0–10 + 0.79*SM40–100 + 88.05 % 87.60 % 86.69 % − 738.95 − 714.86 92.51 %
Community 0.01*ST0–10 + 0.01*ST100–200 − 0.003*LST − 0.01T2M
Reserve
EVI = − 0.152 − 0.71*SM10–40 + 1.2*SM40–100 + 0.02*ST0–10 − 85.84 % 85.40 % 84.82 % − 559.75 − 538.58 88.47 %
0.0596*ST40–100 + 0.0704*ST100–200 − 0.00947*LST +
0.000071*RF
Reiek Community NDVI = 0.49 − 0.029*WS − 0.464*SM0–10 + 0.43*SM100–200 + 88.13 % 87.69 % 86.92 % − 738.97 − 714.88 93.49 %
Forest 0.02*ST100–200 − 0.005*LST + 0.001*RH
EVI = − 0.16 + 0.76*SM100–200 + 0.02*ST40–100 84.14 % 83.65 % 83.18 % − 541.83 − 520.66 87.07 %
Phawngpui NDVI = 0.58 − 0.04*WS + 1913*ET − 0.77*SM0–10 + 85.08 % 84.43 % 83.14 % − 670.45 − 643.47 78.79 %
National Park 0.59*SM40–100 + 0.02*ST100–200 − 0.008*LST + 0.002*RH
EVI = − 0.35 + 0.03*WS + 0.51*SM40–100 + 0.029*ST100–200 76.15 % 75.57 % 74.43 % − 491.24 − 473.02 50.26 %

NDVI = Normalised Difference Vegetation Index, EVI = Enhanced Vegetation Index, SM = Soil Moisture, ST = Soil Temperature, RF = Total Rainfall, T2M = 2 metre
Air Temperature, LST = Land Surface Temperature, WS = Wind Speed, RH = Relative Humidity, ET = Evapotranspiration, the numbers shown in subscripts of soil
temperature and soil moisture represent their respective soil depths.

4. Results 0.01), followed by zero lag correlation coefficient values (r = 0.58 −


0.68). Finally, a 3-month lag between rainfall and EVI showed the lowest
4.1. Temporal changes in NDVI, EVI, and rainfall of the forest sites correlation coefficient values (r = 0.35 − 0.59, p < 0.01).

Based on the monthly averaged values of NDVI and EVI for all the
study sites, it was observed that NDVI at all the sites peaks during 4.3. Stepwise multiple regression analysis of NDVI and EVI vs. abiotic
September - October in the growing season while the same is minimal variables
during March–April (Fig. 4). The NDVI and EVI values for all the study
sites during the study period ranged between 0.27–0.93 and 0.27–0.86, For temperate forests at Phawngpui, abiotic variables such as
respectively. The maximum values of these indices were noticed in the windspeed, evapotranspiration, soil moisture (i.e., 0–10 cm and 40–100
post-monsoon period, and the minimum was observed during the dry cm depths), soil temperature (at 100–200 cm depths) and LST were auto
season. The mean highest and lowest monthly rainfall (550 mm and 290 selected in the analysis. Together, they explained 83 % variability in
mm, respectively) during the past 20 years was observed in June in the NDVI. However, the abiotic variables, i.e., windspeed, soil moisture
tropical Zawlnuam Bird Sanctuary and sub-tropical Dampa Tiger (40–100 cm depth) and soil temperature (100–200 cm depth) explained
Reserve. 69 % variability in EVI.
At the sub-tropical Dampa forest, wind speed, soil moisture
(100–200 cm), soil temperature (100–200 cm), LST and 2 m air tem­
4.2. Vegetation indices versus rainfall with different lag periods (i.e., 0, 1, perature explained 78 % variability in NDVI. In the case of EVI, soil
2, and 3 months) for the past two decades (2001–2020, n = 240) moisture at depths 40–100 cm and 100–200 cm and soil temperature at
0–10 cm explained 72 % variability.
The effect of the same month’s rainfall on vegetation indices was For the Hmuifang community forest, variables such as windspeed,
significantly less in different forest sites. Therefore, vegetation indices soil moisture, soil temperature, LST, and 2-metre air temperature
(NDVI and EVI) were correlated with 1-, 2- and 3-month lag periods explained 90 % variability in NDVI. For EVI, soil moisture at depths
following rainfall events to assess the effect of rainfall on forest growth (10–40 cm and 40–100 cm) were the significant factors, soil tempera­
patterns. Correlation coefficients between NDVI and two months lag tures at the same depths along with LST and rain explained 87 %
period of rainfall were highest for all forest sites (r = 0.65 − 0.81, Fig. 5) variability.
except for the Dampa tiger reserve, where the highest correlation coef­ At the sub-tropical Tawizo Wildlife Sanctuary, soil moisture at
ficient (r = 0.72) was observed after a 3-months lag period. The corre­ depths 0–10 and 40–100 cm, soil temperature at 100–200 cm, LST and
lation coefficients of 1-month lag for different sites (r = 0.43 − 0.65, p < relative humidity explained 83 % variability in NDVI. For EVI, the same
0.01) were higher than the values of zero-lag (r = 0.05 − 0.35, p < 0.01). parameters except for LST again explained 83 % variability.
The second highest correlation coefficients (r = 0.68 − 0.76, p < 0.01) At the tropical forest in Zawlnuam Bird Sanctuary, abiotic factors
were observed between NDVI and 3 months after the rain event for all such as windspeed, soil moisture and temperature (100–200 cm), LST,
the sites except at the sub-tropical Dampa tiger reserve. rain and relative humidity explained 91 % variability in NDVI. Only soil
The correlation coefficients for EVI showed maximum values at a lag moisture at 100–200 cm and soil temperature at 40–100 cm explained
period of 1 month (r = 0.70 − 0.81, Fig. 6) except for the tropical 87 % variability in EVI.
Zawlnuam Bird Sanctuary, which showed the highest correlation coef­ In the sub-tropical forest of Reiek, abiotic factors such as windspeed,
ficient value (r = 0.83) at a lag period of 2 months. The second highest soil moisture at depths 0–10 cm and 100–200 cm, soil temperature at
correlation was observed for a lag of 2 months (r = 0.59 − 0.83, p < 100–200 cm, LST, and relative humidity explained 90 % variability in

6
R. Chanda et al. Trees, Forests and People 15 (2024) 100491

Fig. 4. Plots showing monthly variations of precipitation and vegetation indices (NDVI and EVI) for the study sites.

NDVI. Only soil moisture at 100–200 cm depth and soil temperature at thereby, the region’s forest composition, diversity, and species perfor­
40–100 cm depth were auto selected and explained 83 % variability in mance (Tripathi et al., 2016; Upadhyay et al., 2021). Climate change has
EVI. altered the weather patterns of the region over the past two to three
Based on the AIC values of each model, the best-fit model for decades as average annual precipitation has gradually declined in the
determining the NDVI and EVI in the study regions were: NDVI = 0.49 − state over the said period (Fig. 2). According to Upadhyay et al. (2021),
0.029*WS − 0.464*SM0–10 + 0.43*SM100–200 + 0.02*ST100–200 − increasing moisture stresses in the region may pose a threat to different
0.005*LST + 0.001*RH and EVI = − 0.06 − 1.02*SM 0–10 + forest vegetation having low adaptability to climate change stresses,
1.58*SM40–100 + 0.02*ST40–100 + 0.000061*RF respectively (Table 3). which are incompetent to make niche shifts. Changes in rainfall and
temperature trends in the region have been reported to promote early
5. Discussion flowering and fruiting of a few tree species like Schima wallichi and
Callicarpa arborea. In contrast, the same has delayed flowering and
The exponential increase in human population growth has led to fruiting by one to three months in other species (like Albizia chinensis)
considerable deforestation because of enhanced urbanisation and un­ (Singh and Sahoo, 2019). Further, the increase in the overall tempera­
precedented expansion of agricultural land along with other develop­ ture of an area has resulted in shifts in various phenological events of
mental activities (Yilanci et al., 2023; Bhattacharyya et al., 2023). All important tree species (Devi et al., 2023). Climate change has note­
these have geared towards a considerable decline in forest cover and its worthy implications in affecting the growth and development of
subsequent fragmentation in recent decades. Tropical, sub-tropical and different forests around the globe (Roshani et al., 2022). This implies
temperate forests in this study are essential components of the that fluctuations in temperatures in the future will have consequences
Indo-Burma biological hotspot within the Eastern Himalayan region and towards tree seedling growth and development in natural conditions
harbour immense biodiversity with high endemism, which is facing a that might also lead to the extinction of some prominent tree species in
range of threats due to enhanced anthropogenic activities. This has the region (Luo et al., 2020). It is evident that rainfall is one of the
significantly altered the temperature and precipitation patterns and, primary factors influencing forest growth in an area; however, since all

7
R. Chanda et al. Trees, Forests and People 15 (2024) 100491

Fig. 5. Correlation coefficients (r) between time after rainfall (i.e., the same month as zero lag, 1-month lag, 2-month lag, and 3-month lag) and NDVI values for
different sites.

Fig. 6. Correlation coefficients (r) between time after rainfall (i.e., the same month as zero lag, 1-month lag, 2-month lag and 3-month lag) and EVI values for
different sites.

our study sites are primarily located on steep slopes of the hills, the amounts from the topsoil (0–10 cm), older and bigger trees in
chance for the percolation of rainwater down the soil profile is minimal, old-growth forests with deep penetrating roots use the infiltrated water
and most of the rainwater flows down the rivers as runoff. Lag effects in depths greater than 100 cm using their tiny fibrous root tips. Adequate
(1–2 months) of rainfall accounted for in the present study (Figs. 5 & 6) soil moisture is thus essential for the survival and growth of trees as it
could be related to the time taken by the trees to initiate their noticeable provides necessary water for their physiological processes (McDowell
leaf emergence in the canopy, which is captured through remote sensing and Allen, 2015). Changes in soil moisture can immediately impact the
after the rain events. The lag effect of rain events on vegetation has also rhizospheric activities, the tree’s root and root-associated microbiome.
been reported by Kong et al. (2020) in the Loess Plateau of China. This, in turn, influences carbon distribution within trees and their
However, the lag effect in their study was minimal. Further, the lag ef­ overall growth. Soil moisture availability can influence rhizosphere
fect of 1-month following rainfall events on tree phenology has also been metabolic activity and drive carbon allocation and transport within
reported in the sub-tropical moist forests of Reiek in Mizoram by Devi plants (Joseph et al., 2020).
et al. (2023). The most common abiotic variable affecting the vegetation Soil temperature at lower depths helps in breaking larger soil parti­
of the region in this study was soil moisture, especially at lower depths cles, enabling better assimilation of water and nutrients and providing
(> 40 cm). This is possibly because of the minimal recharge of favourable conditions for microbial growth and metabolism (Zheng
groundwater due to the topography of the studied forest sites. Although et al., 2019). Wind speeds negatively impacted the growth (in terms of
the small herbaceous vegetation uses the water available in smaller NDVI and EVI) of forests for all the study sites. This may be because of

8
R. Chanda et al. Trees, Forests and People 15 (2024) 100491

the vibration of leaves caused by strong wind that reduces the efficiency CRediT authorship contribution statement
of leaves to perform photosynthesis, transpiration, and gaseous ex­
changes as efficiently as at steady conditions, which has also been Rajdeep Chanda: Conceptualization, Data curation, Formal anal­
mentioned by Schindler et al. (2012). High relative humidity reduces the ysis, Investigation, Methodology, Validation, Visualization, Writing –
leaf-atmosphere vapour pressure gradients, reducing the efficiency of original draft, Writing – review & editing. Salam Suresh Singh: Writing
transpiration (Perez and Feeley, 2018). Increased humidity can also – review & editing. Ngangbam Somen Singh: Writing – review &
speed up the decomposition of dead organic remains on the forest floor, editing. Keshav Kumar Upadhyay: Supervision, Writing – review &
promoting nutrient cycling and soil fertility. Due to increased evapora­ editing. Shri Kant Tripathi: Conceptualization, Funding acquisition,
tion, low relative humidity, and soil moisture availability may impede Supervision, Writing – original draft, Writing – review & editing.
root development, water, nutrient uptake, cambial activity, leaf effi­
ciency, and tree growth (Truu et al., 2017; Firn et al., 2019). The RH Declaration of competing interest
datasets used in our study were mostly confined to a height of 2 m, and
most of the tree canopy in forests are above an average height of 5 m. We The authors declare that they have no known competing financial
suggest using RH at elevated levels to overcome this problem for better interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence
interpretations in the future. However, the availability of datasets at this the work reported in this paper.
height is another constraint for this type of study. According to Stahl
et al. (2010), seasonal variations in the rate of change in the girth of Data availability
tropical rainforest trees reflect variation in trunk biophysical parameters
via the influence of relative humidity on bark qualities. The data used for the study will be made available on request by the
This part of the Himalayan region is an integral part of the Indo- corresponding author.
Burma biodiversity hotspot. It supports a large number of human and
cattle populations, and thus, the forests of the region are under threat
(Kumar and Ram, 2005; Tripathi et al., 2016). In addition to the Acknowledgement
above-mentioned anthropogenic factors, this region is dominated by
prevalent slash-and-burn agriculture (locally called jhuming) occurring This work was supported by the Department of Science & Technol­
throughout the hilly states of the northeastern Indian region, putting a ogy, New Delhi, Government of India, through a research project [Grant
severe threat to the forest. The practice is difficult to abolish or replace No. DST/CCP/MRDP/193/2019(G)], for which the corresponding
as it has become an integral part of society and is deeply associated with author is thankful.
the tribal culture in the region (Grogan et al., 2012). Owing to this,
disasters like forest fires are often very likely in the region and pose References
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