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§ Define alpha and beta and explain how they are generally
estimated.
§ Compare the use of average return versus beta and the SML to
estimate cost of equity capital.
§ Estimate the cost of debt, given a company’s yield to maturity,
probability of default, and expected loss rate.
§ Discuss the difference between the yield to maturity and the cost of
debt when there is low versus high default risk.
§ Calculate the cost of debt given a company’s debt beta, the risk-
free rate, and the market risk premium.
§ Illustrate the use of comparable companies’ unlevered betas or
unlevered cost of capital to estimate project cost of capital.
Shareholders Debtholders
Equity Debt
CAPM
look at risk
t should
get
Determine the return she
holders
12.1 THE EQUITY COST OF CAPITAL
§ The Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) is a practical way toe.g.Hangsengmdx
estimate. Betnmarhetnnk
§ The cost of capital of any investment opportunity (i) equals the
expected return of available investments with the same beta.
70Market
It
index
§ The estimate is provided by the Security Market Line equation:
Bloomagenhn relative在báey
ngg.tk
From r = r + " × (% &
i f − (! )
nl
% &'(
卯上㗊㗊焭
20% and a beta of 1.29.
highermarketrisk
§ A similar process for Chipotle (CMG) yields a volatility of 30% and
a beta of 0.55.
§ Which stock carries more total risk? Which has more market risk?
§ If the risk-free interest rate is 3% and you estimate the market’s
expected return to be 8%, calculate the equity cost of capital for
Disney and Chipotle. Which company has a higher cost of equity
capital?
3 129 3 945
DIS ⼆ 8
CMG ⼆18 3 1.8513 575
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9
n3klaHfatwDeg.ntnestrate badaw.anpetntnms
GDh.tn
due tomarket tutor e.g.interestrate
Betamarket risklong
poormarketing 7only affectunlmktxmarhetmk
dueto market 在在
pzs 器 器 whenreturnMe
dueto markethtns
CMG
High low
thenreturn Me Mainly
didualproblems
company in
Det ined
§ Total risk is measured by volatility; therefore Chipotle stock has more
total risk than Disney.
on A
§ Systematic risk is measured by beta. Disney has a higher beta, so it
has more market risk than Chipotle.
§ Given Disney’s estimated beta of 1.29, we expect the price for
Disney’s stock to move by 1.29% for every 1% move of the market.
Therefore, Disney’s risk premium will be 1.29 times the risk premium
of the market, and Disney’s equity cost of capital (from Eq. 12.1) is
Problem
§ Suppose you estimate that Walmart’s stock has a volatility of 16.1%
and a beta of 0.20.
§ A similar process for Johnson & Johnson yields a volatility of 13.7%
and a beta of 0.54.
§ Which stock carries more total risk? Which has more market risk?
§ If the risk-free interest rate is 4% and you estimate the market’s
expected return to be 12%, calculate the equity cost of capital for
Walmart and Johnson & Johnson. Which company has a higher cost
of equity capital?
market
a
in portfolio
rz rftBiIEIRml.RU
12.2 THE MARKET PORTFOLIO (1 OF 3)
§ Market Capitalization
§ The total market value of a firm’s outstanding shares
MVi = (Number of shares of i outstanding) x (Price of i per share) = Ni x Pi
§ Most practitioners use the S&P500 as the market proxy, even though
it is not actually the market portfolio.
§ What about HK?
Ekm
§ Hang Seng Index
Hosts
§ Hong Kong All Ordinaries Index 20stocks done
by
§ Other indexes valueweighed
䲜 4點
§ What about HK?
A Fundamental Approach
§ Using historical data has two drawbacks:
§ Standard errors of the estimates are large
§ Backward looking, so may not represent current expectations
§ One alternative is to solve for the discount rate that is consistent with
the current level of the index
ZERO-COUPON BONDS
§ The YTM is the single discount rate that equates the present value of
the bond’s remaining cash flows to its current price
§ Yield to Maturity of an n-Year Zero-Coupon Bond
Eq . 6.3
uation
鳳 100
斷
Using Eq . 6.3, we have
uation
negativeyieldcurve
1
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25
COUPON BONDS
expressed as simpleinterest
Rateless than a year
interest
morethan a year expressed as compounding
Rate Copyright © 2020 Pearson Education Ltd. All Rights Reserved.
26
Eg6 peryear
614 1.5 per3months
is No 2 1 1236 for2year
TEXTBOOK EXAMPLE 6.3 – COMPUTING THE
YIELD TO MATURITY OF A COUPON BOND (1 OF 3)
no.thupms 2x5 10
Problem
N
§ The U.S. Treasury has just issued a five-year, $1000 bond with a 5%
coupon rate and semiannual coupons.
N
§ If this bond is currently trading for a price of $957.35, what is the
bond’s yield to maturity?
15 25 15 25141000
100
hupm
ˊ
與 ym 3 x2
6 peryear
15 Copyright © 2020 Pearson Education Ltd. All Rights Reserved.
27
TEXTBOOK EXAMPLE 6.3 – COMPUTING THE
YIELD TO MATURITY OF A COUPON BOND (2 OF 3)
Solution
§ Because the bond has 10 remaining coupon payments, we compute
its yield y by solving:
o
Solve for Rate blank 3.00% blank blank blank = RATE (10, 25,
−957.35, 1000)
hrneh
§ The importance of the adjustment depends on the riskiness of the
bond.
3
Average 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.5% 2.2% 5.5% 12.2% 14.1%
In Recessions 0.0% 1.0% 3.0% 3.0% 8.0% 16.0% 48.0% 79.0%
Source: “Corporate Defaults and Recovery Rates, 1920-2011,” Moody’s Global Credit Policy,
February 2012.
非 0
肱ultr
䬆
maturity
By Maturity
Avg. Beta
(BBB and above)
Blank
1-5 year
0.01
5-10 year
0.06
10-15 year
0.07
>15 year
* Note that these are average debt betas across industries. We would expect
debt betas to be lower (higher) for industries that are less (more) exposed to
market risk. One simply way to approximate this difference is to scale the
debt betas in Table 12.3 by the relative asset beta for the industry (see Figure
12.4 on page 425).
ìlunlereredustt Eqmgbiigg
f fi
RE Rwml
l
Znrestmentf
Investment Rulunheredcostot
capth 36
Rwm Ru if no tax
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36
Bhedonuqmredrel
hphyedmthemktbysimiliar useRwmc
RwAll similarreturn companies
marketluquiud return
DRNACLLNDfrom Benchmark me at least benchmarkfromthe
RE 冊 Rnknnu hung
37
㖌㖄
Copyright © 2020 Pearson Education Ltd. All Rights Reserved.
37
liquidate
11 gi
Revised
⼆ RNML
Return
1
12.1 to estimate the cost of capital of this investment opportunity as
⼆ Rn4lum
l
investmentsimilarto
your
lululemm use7 as thereturn
fromyourproject
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40
TEXTBOOK EXAMPLE 12.4 – ESTIMATING THE
BETA OF A PROJECT FROM A SINGLE-
PRODUCT FIRM (3 OF 3)
§ In other words, rather than investing in the new business, you could
invest in the fashion industry simply by buying LULU stock.
§ Given this alternative, to be attractive, the new investment must have
an expected return at least equal to that of LULU, which from the
CAPM is 7%.
25 1
兆 5 10.95
RwAll ⼆
Unlevered Beta
§ Because the beta of a portfolio is the weighted-average of the
betas of the securities in the portfolio, we have a similar expression
for the firm’s asset or unlevered beta, which we can use to estimate
the beta of our project:
is i
unheredtrm
based
on
飈 叫 松
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46
TEXTBOOK EXAMPLE 12.5 – UNLEVERING THE
COST OF CAPITAL (3 OF 4)
Solution
Alternative, we can estimate PG’s unlevered beta. Given its high rating,
if we assume PG’s debt is zero we have
pǖss
Asset BE BD him Assumption
lorerall Beta
Taking this result as an estimate of the beta of our project, we can
compute our project’s cost of capital from the C A PM as
rU = 3% + 0.438(5%) = 5.19%
CAPM
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47
TEXTBOOK EXAMPLE 12.5 – UNLEVERING THE
COST OF CAPITAL (4 OF 4)
Solution
§ The slight difference in rU using the two methods arises because in
the first case, we assumed the expected return of PG’s debt is equal
to its promised yield of 3.1% (which overestimates the cost of debt,
as we pointed out in Section 12.4).
§ While in the second case, we assumed the debt has a beta of zero,
which implies an expected return equal to the risk-free rate of 3%
according to the C A PM (which underestimates the cost of debt,
because PG’s debt is not risk free). The truth is somewhere between
the two results.
在e Beta Debt to
Yield3,1 tmk
3,1 3 5 1BD
lookBoxo05 Copyright © 2020 Pearson Education Ltd. All Rights Reserved.
48
⼆
CASH AND NET DEBT HD EtD_All marketvaluebased
nor
p
§ Some firms maintain high cash balances
§ Cash is a risk-free asset that reduces the average risk of the firm’s
assets.
§ Because the risk of the firm’s enterprise value is what we’re
concerned with, leverage should be measured in terms of net debt
Net Debt = Debt – Excess Cash and Short-Term Investments
Debttash⼆Netdebt NML
comefromdebt hasexcesscash
t financial not
risk only If company
E.g.hn debt
If company into
40mlas lnhatmedbtlloom
4omigdbtauaten.mu
Copyright © 2020 Pearson Education Ltd. All Rights Reserved.
49
cash
maturity
__hnanuànsk
Problem
§ In early 2018, Microsoft Corporation had a market capitalization of
$716 billion, $89 billion in debt, and $133 billion in cash.
cash the beta of
Dbeta was 1.04, estimate
§ If itsEestimated equity
Microsoft’s underlying business enterprise.
i
BE⼆1,04
Usually BE 7Bu Copyright © 2020 Pearson Education Ltd. All Rights Reserved.
51
ALTERNATIVE EXAMPLE 12.6 (1 OF 2)
Problem
§ Apple’s market capitalization in mid-2016 was $484 billion, and its
beta was 1.03. At that same time, the company had $55 billion in
cash and $69 billion in debt.
§ Based on this data, estimate the beta of Apple’s underlying business
enterprise.
o
overallBeta
§ Doing this calculation for each firm, we obtain the following
estimates:
腻 _narnw
Grange
abustfurther
to fit yourown
The large difference in the firms’ equity beta are mainly due to differences in case
leverage. The firms’ asset beta are much more similar, suggesting that the
underlying business in this industry have similar market risk. By combining
estimates from several closely related firms in this way can get a more
accurate estimate of the beta for investments in the industry.
- ! !
+)*++ = +" + +, − + .
-+! -+! -+! , -
taxrate
§ Given a target leverage ratio,
Ajastmat
if
y then 7to
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58
THE WEIGHTED AVERAGE COST OF CAPITAL (2 OF 2)
I D
§ Dunlap Corp. has a market capitalization of $100 million, and $25
million in outstanding debt.
§ Dunlap’s equity cost of capital is 10%, and its debt cost of capital is
6%.
§ What is Dunlap’s unlevered cost of capital (i.e. rU)?
§ If its corporate tax rate is 25%, what is Dunlap’s weighted average
cost of capital (i.e. rwacc)?
i
OR
§ We can use the WACC of 8.9% to evaluate with the same risk and the
same mix of debt and equity financing as Dunlap’s assets. It is a lower rate
than the unlevered cost of capital to reflect the tax deductibility of interest
expenses.
Problem
§ Cavo Corp’s equity cost of capital is 15%, and its debt cost of
capital is 7%.
§ The corporate tax rate is 34%.
§ The firm has $100 million in debt outstanding and a market
capitalization of $250 million.
§ What is Cabo’s unlevered cost of capital (rU)?
§ What is Cavo’s weighted average cost of capital (rwacc)?
Reading
§ B&DM 5e, Chapter 12
Practice problems
§ Problems 2, 9, 15, 17, 18, 19, 20, 22, 23, 26, 27