Population and Development Module (2)

Hawassa University
Distance Learning Module
Population and Development

Course Code: GaDS3103
Compiled by – Abdurahman Hamza
Edited by – Yalew Emagne
May, 2019
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Table of Contents
COURSE INTRODUCTION.............................................................................................................................1
MODULE ONE..............................................................................................................................................3
INTRODUCTION...........................................................................................................................................3
CHAPTER ONE..............................................................................................................................................4
INTRODUCTORY CONCEPTS.........................................................................................................................4
1.1. Demography versus Population Studies......................................................................................4
1.2. Development Studies and Population Studies.............................................................................5
1.2.1. The growth of Development Studies...................................................................................6
1.2.2. The Growth of Population Studies.......................................................................................7
1.3. World Population Growth throughout History..........................................................................10
1.4. The Sources of Demographic Information.................................................................................14
1.4.1. National Censuses..............................................................................................................15
1.4.2. Registration Systems..........................................................................................................17
1.4.3. Surveys...............................................................................................................................20
Chapter Summary......................................................................................................................................23
Review Questions......................................................................................................................................24
CHAPTER TWO...........................................................................................................................................26
DEMOGRAPHIC VARIABLES.......................................................................................................................26
2.1. Fertility.......................................................................................................................................26
2.1.1. Conceptualization of Fertility.............................................................................................26
2.1.2. Measurement of Fertility...................................................................................................27
2.1.3. World Fertility Trends........................................................................................................34
2.1.4. Factors Affecting Fertility Rates.........................................................................................36
2.1.5. Theories of Fertility............................................................................................................38
2.2. Mortality: Death Rates...............................................................................................................46
2.2.1. Conceptualization..............................................................................................................47
2.2.2. Measuring Mortality..........................................................................................................47
2.2.3. World Mortality Trends.....................................................................................................52
2.2.4. Factors Effecting Mortality.................................................................................................53
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2.2.5. Theories of Mortality.........................................................................................................55
2.3. Migration...................................................................................................................................56
2.3.1. Concepts and Definitions...................................................................................................56
2.3.2. Measurements of migration..............................................................................................60
2.3.3. Trends of International Migration......................................................................................62
2.3.4. Drivers of Migration...........................................................................................................63
2.3.5. Theories of Migration........................................................................................................64
2.3.6. Consequences of International Migration..........................................................................67
2.4. Population Growth....................................................................................................................70
2.4.1. Total Population Growth Rate...............................................................................................71
2.4.2. Doubling time of a population...........................................................................................72
2.5. Characteristics and Composition of Population Structures........................................................74
2.5.1. Population structure..........................................................................................................74
Age and Sex Ratios:............................................................................................................................75
Chapter Summary......................................................................................................................................79
Review Questions......................................................................................................................................80
MODULE TWO...........................................................................................................................................83
CHAPTER THREE........................................................................................................................................84
THEORIES OF POPULATION AND DEVELOPMENT......................................................................................84
3.1. Classical Models of Population and Economies.........................................................................85
3.2. Modern Theories of Population and Economic Growth.............................................................88
3.2.1. Neo-Malthusian.................................................................................................................89
3.2.2. Boserupian.........................................................................................................................93
3.2.3. Criticisms of the Neo/Malthusian Model...........................................................................94
3.3. The consequences of High Fertility: Some conflicting Perspectives...........................................96
3.3.1. It is not a real Problem.......................................................................................................96
3.3.2. It is a real Problem...........................................................................................................101
3.3.3. A Consensus/Intermediate Opinion.................................................................................103
3.4. Theories of Population Change and the Environment.............................................................104
3.4.1. Classical Economists or Natural Scientists,.......................................................................104
3.4.2. Neoclassical economists..................................................................................................105
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3.4.3. Dependency theorists......................................................................................................106
3.4.4. Proximate determinists....................................................................................................107
3.5. Demographic Transitions and Demographic Dividend.............................................................107
3.5.1. Demographic Transition Theory.......................................................................................108
3.5.2. The second demographic transition model......................................................................110
3.5.3. Demographic Dividend.....................................................................................................111
Chapter Summary....................................................................................................................................114
Review Questions....................................................................................................................................115
CHAPTER FOUR........................................................................................................................................116
POPULATION POLICY...............................................................................................................................116
4.1. Definition.................................................................................................................................116
4.2. World Population Conferences................................................................................................121
4.3. Policies affecting Fertility, Mortality and Migration.................................................................125
4.3.1. Anti-natalist policies.........................................................................................................125
4.4.2. Pronatalist policies...........................................................................................................128
4.4.3. Policies affecting Mortality..............................................................................................131
4.4.4. Policies affecting International Migration........................................................................132
Chapter Summary....................................................................................................................................136
CHAPTER FIVE..........................................................................................................................................139
POPULATION AND DEVELOPMENT IN ETHIOPIA.....................................................................................139
5.1. Demographic Trends of Ethiopia.............................................................................................139
5.2. Demographic Dividend............................................................................................................144
5.3. Population growth and service delivery...................................................................................147
5.4. Migration.................................................................................................................................149
5.5. Population Policy of Ethiopia...................................................................................................151
Chapter Summary....................................................................................................................................154
References...............................................................................................................................................157
Answers for Activities and Review Questions..........................................................................................158
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COURSE INTRODUCTION
Every year, more than 75 million people are being added to the world’s population. Almost all of
this net population increase—97%—is in developing countries. Increases of such magnitude are
unprecedented. But the problem of population growth is not simply a problem of numbers. It is a
problem of human welfare and of development. Rapid population growth can have serious
consequences for the well-being of all of humanity. If development entails the improvement in
people’s levels of living—their incomes, health, education, and general well-being—and if it
also encompasses their capabilities, self-esteem, respect, dignity, and freedom to choose, then the
really important question about population growth is this: How does the contemporary
population situation in many developing countries contribute to or detract from their chances of
realizing the goals of development, not only for the current generation but also for future
generations? Conversely, how does development affect population growth?
Dear learner, in this course, you will learn the issues related to the one presented above. To this
end, the course is organized into five chapters. In the first chapter, basic concepts like
Population, Demography, sources of population data will be discussed. We will also look at
historical and recent population trends and the changing geographic distribution of the world’s
people. In the second chapter the three demographic variables or factors that determine the
population change namely Fertility, Mortality and Migration will be given attention. Moreover,
the measurements and the theories related to these variables/factors will be covered.
In the third chapter, theories that explain the interaction between population growth and
development will be discussed. These theories present mainly the causes and consequences of
rapid population growth in contemporary developing countries. In the fourth chapter, we
evaluate a range of alternative policy options that countries may wish to adopt to influence
fertility, mortality and Migration. Population policies of countries from developing and
developed countries including the nations with the largest populations in the world like China
and India are presented as the case studies. Finally, we will look at the relationship between
population and development in Ethiopia.
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Module Learning Outcomes
At the end of the course, students will be able to:
 Understand the sources of demographic data
 Know how demographic variables are measured
 Realize the key assumptions of population theories and apply them in development
planning and managements based on existing situations.
 Know the causes and consequences of rapid pollution growth.
 Analyze the link between population and environment.
 Recognize the various types of population policies
 Comprehend the population and development interaction in Ethiopia
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MODULE ONE
INTRODUCTION
INTRODUCTION
Dear learner, this module covers two chapters. The first includes introductory concepts like
demography, population studies and development studies. It also discusses the population growth
trends of the world in general and developing countries in particular. Further, the sources of
demographic data are presented. The second chapter emphasizes on the concepts, the
measurement and theories related to fertility, mortality and migration.
Module objectives
At the end of this module, students will be able to:

 understand the concept of demography
 know the baseline for understanding the reflexive nature of Population and Development
relationships
 apprehend fertility, mortality and migration
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CHAPTER ONE
INTRODUCTORY CONCEPTS
INTRODUCTION
Dear learner, this chapter deals with the introductory concepts of population studies. It starts with
explaining demography and its relation with population studies. Then, it discusses the history of
population and development studies. Next, the population trend of the world is presented.
Finally, the sources of population data are explained.
Objectives:
At the end of this module, you will be able to:

 explain demography
 elaborate population growth trends of the world
 discuss a better baseline for understanding the reflexive nature of Population and
Development relationships
 identify the different sources of population data
1.1.Demography versus Population Studies

Dear learner, in this section you will learn about the definition of demography and its relation
with population studies.
Objectives:
At the end of this section, you will be able to:
 Define demography
 Explain the interdisciplinary nature of population studies
What is demography? (You can use the space provided below to write your answer)
______________________________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________________________
Have you attempted? Good.
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Demography is the systematic and scientific study of human populations. The word demography
comes from the Greek words δημoσ (demos) for population and γραφια (graphia) for
“description” or “writing,” thus the phrase, “writings about populations.” The term demography
is believed to have first been used in 1855 by the Belgian statistician Achille Guillard in his book
Elements of Human Statistics or Comparative Demography. There is fair agreement among
demographers about the objectives and definition of demography.
Demography is the scientific study of human population. It focuses on five aspects of human
population: (1) size, (2) distribution, (3) composition, (4) population dynamics, and (5)
socioeconomic determinants and consequences of population change.
The boundaries of demography are fuzzy. There is, however, general agreement that the
discipline has a core, variously referred to as demographic analysis or formal demography,
which is concerned with the measurement of population phenomena, and a broader interpretative
component, often termed population studies, seeks to understand and explain the patterns,
differentials and trends revealed by demographic analysis and to assess their implications and
linkages to other phenomena. Population studies tend to focus on relationships between
demographic and non-demographic variables, and to the extent that demographers’ views as to
the scope of their discipline vary, they vary largely in their perceptions of the breadth of the field
of population studies.
Activity
Dear learner, what do you understand when we say “the study of
population is multidisciplinary in nature”?
The study of population is multidisciplinary in nature, involving an understanding of biology,

genetics, mathematics, statistics, economics, sociology, cultural anthropology, psychology,
politics, geography, medicine, public health, ecology, etc.
1.2. Development Studies and Population Studies

Development Studies and Population studies were not traditionally seen as mainstream academic
disciplines. At this time, however, they have their own professional associations, nationally and
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globally, and also have their own core of methods and materials. This section, therefore, focuses
on the overview of these two disciplines and their relationship.
Objectives:
Upon successful completion of the section, you will be able to:
• discuss the relationship between Population studies and development studies
• illustrate how population studies has evolved
1.2.1. The growth of Development Studies
Dear learner, you have learned about development in different courses particularly in
Development Theories and Practice course. However, in this section we will see an overview of
development studies.
Development Studies as a separate branch of economics in the first instance only emerged after
the Second World War with the creation of the UN and the Bretton Woods institutions, the
International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, in 1945.
During the periods of 1940s, 1950s and 1960s, the need for development became mixed up with
the standoff between the capitalist West and the communist Soviet Union and its satellites in
Eastern Europe and China. Development in the Western world and by the international agencies
was largely seen in term of Western capitalist development, with a linear development model
that saw the rich Western nations, the First World, as leaders and the new nations, the Third
World, as lagging cases that needed to emulate the Western experience, thus bypassing the
socialist experience of the Second World. The most celebrated linear model of development of
that early Cold War period was that of the American economic historian, Walt W. Rostow
(1960), whose highly influential text, The Stages of Economic Growth, had a most telling
subtitle, A Noncommunist Manifesto.
By the 1960s and 1970s, however, academic discourse had taken a more critical stance and
integrated the work of the Dependencista School of political economy. It was led by the Chilean
economist Andre Gunder Frank. It emphasized on the nature of underdevelopment as an active
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process generating and accentuating international disparities that had their origins in patterns of
economic and cultural exchange and dependency, largely on the ex-colonial powers.
Since the end of the cold war Development Studies has experienced major changes in approach
and substance. Not only has the global political climate changed from the Cold War to
emphasize growing globalization and new global power relationships, but there is a widespread
recognition of the relative failure of over 50 years of development in many regions – the number,
if not the proportion of very poor people has been growing. While there are some obvious
‘success stories’ – notably the NICs and resource-rich states – global disparities are widening as
development is increasingly seen in the mechanistic and simplistic but relatively easily measured
terms of the MDGs.
What are the main stances of anti-development and post-development theory?

______________________________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________________________
The disappointment about the success of development, especially in the poorest countries and for
the poorest groups, has been responsible for the growing emphasis on a new critical approach
associated with anti-development and post-development theory in which there is less concern
for global models and similarities but greater recognition of locally specific development policies
and practices. Development Studies as a cohesive and systematic field of study has emerged and
continues to develop, becoming better integrated with the mainstream of the social sciences, and
not only or even mainly with economics, as it was in the earlier periods.
1.2.2. The Growth of Population Studies

Population Studies as a body of knowledge and cohesive theory has also experienced changes in
content, context and approach, but over a longer period than Development Studies. The
beginnings of Population Studies, though not conceptualized as such at the time, were set the late
eighteenth century with the intellectual controversies over the causes and impacts of the French
Revolution of 1789.
T.R. Malthus himself developed his ideas about the nature of poverty as a response to the
socialist writings of William Godwin, who argued that unequal distribution of power in society
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was the root cause of poverty. Malthus in reply argued that the poor were largely responsible for
their own poverty, and that population growth would in the long run generate even greater
poverty and inequality as the population would outstrip the resources on which they could
survive(the debate will be discussed in detail in the third chapter of this module).
When was population studies given much emphasis in history? (you can use the space provided
to write your answers)
______________________________________________________________________________
Dear learner, as with Development Studies, Population Studies was given a great boost after the
Second World War through the UN with the formation of its Population Division and its
development of census and other data collection programs for member countries. With the
increasing availability of census data, often for the first time, systematic population analysis
become the norm for all countries, and the data that were collected mainly for government
planning purposes also became the raw material for academic population analysis at the national
scale. Furthermore, since the programs for census and other survey data collection were planned
within the UN and other international agencies, the data they collected to similar specifications
were internationally comparable.
Table 1.1- Contexts of population studies, 1789-2008
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Source: Gould, 2009:13
The 1960s and 1970s saw the resurgence of neo-Malthusian thinking, taking the arguments of
Malthus some 180 years previously into the contemporary awareness of growing world food
shortages and malnutrition, more obviously in the Indian subcontinent at that time. The neo-
Malthusian pessimists presented their argument using terms such as ‘the population crises, ‘the
population bomb’, and ‘the population explosion’.
At a global scale, the Club of Rome report in 1972 The limits to growth identified the growing
levels of consumption of fossil fuels and other minerals and growing levels of global pollution,
with modeling that predicted a major environmental catastrophe by the end of the twentieth
century.
However, neither the food crisis nor the global pollution crisis had emerged by 2000, at least not
in the form or in the places predicted in the 1970s. Green Revolution technologies had
revolutionized food production in South and East Asia, to the extent that many former food
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deficit countries are now self-sufficient or even food exporters. Attention of neo-Malthusian
concerns had by then switched to sub-Saharan Africa where there were mounting food deficits in
the majority of countries and where the Green Revolution had not taken root. The global energy
crisis anticipated in the 1970s for the rest of the twentieth century did not materialize as new
sources of fossil fuels were being discovered in commercially exploitable quantities.
More important for Population Studies was the turnaround in population growth rates, falling
rates from a high of over 2.5 per cent per annum in the 1970s to less than 1.5 per cent by the turn
of the millennium. The annual increase in the world’s population fell from a peak of an estimated
88 million per year in 1988 to an estimated 78 million for 2007. These global and national
population trends were subject to very close scrutiny by the growing number of population
specialists to whom major new data sources were available as a result of data collected in
development programs, most notably in the World Fertility Survey (WFS), 1974–86, and the
USAID-funded program of national Demographic and Health Surveys from the mid-1980s. This
was associated with major programs of reproductive health and contraceptive-led family
planning that seemed to have been effective in reducing fertility, though not everywhere to the
same extent as in East Asia.
It is no accident that the major academic journal in the field, Population and Development
Review, was launched about this time, in 1978, by the Population Council in New York, and this
journal remains the outstanding focus for academic concerns for population/development
relationships globally, but with a distinct emphasis towards Developing Countries. Furthermore,
in 1982 the UNFPA (later styled the UN Population Fund) was established within the UN family
to coordinate and promote population programs.
The sequence of changes in emphasis within Population Studies is evident in a comparison of the
central concerns in the UN World Population Conferences of 1974, 1984 and 1994 (see chapter
four). In addition to these conferences, by the turn of the millennium, Millennium Development
Goals/MDG from 2000-2015/ and recently international development goals and Sustainable
development Goads/SDG from 2015-2030/ were set giving attention for population issues.
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1.3. World Population Growth throughout History
Dear learner, in this section you will be introduced the world population growth trends briefly. It
presents the population size difference of different continents. It also discusses the structure
change of the world population.
Objectives:
 compare and contrast the population growth trends of various continents throughout
history
 discuss the change in the structure of the world population
At this time, the world is beyond the population of seven billion people. For most of human
existence on earth, humanity’s numbers have been few. When people first started to cultivate
food through agriculture some 12,000 years ago, the estimated world population was no more
than 5 million (see Table 1.2). Two thousand years ago, world population had grown to nearly
250 million, less than a fifth of the population of China today. From year 1 on our calendar to the
beginning of the Industrial Revolution around 1750, it tripled to 728 million people, less than
three-quarters of the total number living in India today. During the next 200 years (1750–1950),
an additional 1.7 billion people were added to the planet’s numbers. But in just four decades
thereafter (1950–1990), the earth’s human population more than doubled again, bringing the total
figure to around 5.3 billion.
Table 1.2- Estimated World Population Growth through History
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Turning from absolute numbers to percentage growth rates, for almost the whole of human
existence on earth until approximately 300 years ago, population grew at an annual rate not much
greater than zero (0.002%, or 20 per million). Naturally, this overall rate was not steady; there
were many ups and downs as a result of natural catastrophes and variations in growth rates
among regions. By 1750, the population growth rate had accelerated to around 0.3% per year. By
the 1950s, the rate had again accelerated, tripling to about 1.0% per year. It continued to
accelerate until around 1970, when it peaked at 2.09%.
In 1994, when the international community met in Cairo at the International Conference on
Population and Development, an estimated 5.7 billion people were living on the planet (see table
1.3). At that time, nearly 84 million people were being added to the world’s population annually.
According to United Nations projections available at the time, the world’s population was
expected to grow by 87 million annually for the following 25 years. Whereas it had taken 123
years for the world’s population to grow from 1 billion to 2 billion, it was projected at the time of
the Cairo Conference that only 11 years would be required for the increase from 5 billion to 6
billion.
In 2014, the twentieth anniversary of the Conference, the world’s population has already
surpassed 7 billion — a number reached in 2011 — even though it took a little longer than
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predicted in 1994, as population growth over the past 20 years has been slightly slower than
expected. Between 2010 and 2014, the world’s population grew at a rate of 1.2 per cent per
annum, significantly below the 1.5 per cent per annum around the time of the Cairo Conference
(see table 1.3). At the beginning of 2014, the world’s population was estimated at 7.2 billion,
with approximately 82 million being added every year and roughly a quarter of this growth
occurring in the least developed countries. According to the results of the 2017 Revision, the
world’s population reached nearly 7.6 billion in mid-2017. On its current trajectory, the world’s
population is expected to reach 8.1 billion in 2025 and 9.6 billion in 2050. In 2017, an estimated
50.4 per cent of the world’s population was male and 49.6 per cent female. In the same year, 9
per cent of the global population was under age 5, 26 per cent was under age 15, 13 percent was
aged 60 or over, and 2 per cent was aged 80 or over.
While the absolute size of the world’s population has grown substantially since the Cairo
Conference, the annual increase in that population has been declining since the late 1960s. By
2050, it is expected that the world’s population will be growing by 49 million people per year,
more than half of whom will live in the least developed countries. Currently, of the 82 million
people added to the world’s population every year, 54 per cent are in Asia and 33 per cent in
Africa. By 2050, however, more than 80 per cent of the global increase will take place in Africa,
with only 12 per cent in Asia.
Table 1.3- Population, average annual increment and growth rate of the world for selected
years and periods.
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Source:
Although most major areas experienced similar levels of population growth between 1994 and
2014, Africa and Europe stood out, with growth rates significantly higher in Africa and lower in
Europe compared with other region. Between 2014 and 2050, all major areas are expected to
experience further reductions in their population growth rates, resulting in increasingly dramatic
contrasts in population dynamics among them. For example, by 2050, Africa will be growing
more than 6 times as fast as Latin America and the Caribbean and more than 15 times as fast as
Asia. Partly because of international migration, the growth rates of both North America and
Oceania will exceed those of Asia and Latin America and the Caribbean over the coming
decades. Europe is projected to experience population decline after 2020. Overall, the global
population growth rate is projected to fall to 0.5 per cent per annum by 2050.
1.4. The Sources of Demographic Information

Dear learner, in the previous section, we have discussed about the size and growth of the World’s
population in history. The question which can be raised at this stage is from where do we get the
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Data? In other words, what are the sources of population data? This section attempts to provide
answer to this question. We will discuss the sources of demographic data.
Objectives:
After a successful completion of the section, you will be able to:
 Discuss the difference among the three sources of population data
 List the advantages and disadvantages of population census
 Mention the benefits of surveys
Dear learner, list the population data sources that you know.
______________________________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________________________
Have you tried? Good. In this section will deal with the sources of Population data.
The basic sources of demographic data are national censuses, registers, and surveys. National
censuses and registers differ in that the former are conducted on a decennial which means every
ten years (or, in some countries, quinquennial i.e. every five years) basis, while the latter,
theoretically at least, are compiled continuously. Actually, registration data of population events
are usually compiled and published annually or monthly, but they are gathered continuously.
A census may be likened to taking a snapshot of a population at one point in time, say, once
every ten years, and in this snapshot getting a picture of the size of the population, its
characteristics, and its spatial distribution. Conversely, a register may be thought of as a
continuous compilation of major population events, often births, deaths, marriages, divorces, and
sometimes migrations. As a birth or a death occurs, it is registered with the government; the
registrations thus occur continuously.
Censuses and registers are intended to cover the entire population. In a national census,
everyone in the population is supposed to be enumerated, and all the demographic events (births,
deaths, and so forth) that occur in the population are supposed to be registered. Surveys, on the
other hand, are by definition administered to only a fraction of the population. Yet they often
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gather data on many of the items included in censuses and registers, plus additional items of
interest to demographers not included in them. We now cover in some detail each of these three
sources of demographic data.
1.4.1. National Censuses

A national census is “the total process of collecting, compiling, and publishing demographic,
economic, and social data pertaining, at a specified time . . . , to all persons in a country or
delimited territory”. The principal objective of a census is to obtain data about the size,
composition, and distribution of the population. A typical census thus includes information about
the size of the population and its social and geographic subpopulations, as well as data on their
age and sex composition band their educational composition (levels of literacy and educational
attainment and extent of school attendance).
Many censuses also contain information on economically active and inactive populations,
including data on the industrial and occupational composition of the working population, as well
as economic (salary and income) data. Other population data in a typical census include
information pertaining to country or area of birth, citizenship, language, recent migration
experience, religion, and ethnic heritage, which refers to group distinctions based on shared
cultural origins.
In the actual enumeration of the population, there are two ways to count people: by following a
de jure method or by following a de facto method. In the case of a de jure enumeration, the
census covers the entire territory of the country and counts persons according to their “usual” or
“normal” place of residence in the country. A de facto enumeration also covers the entire
territory of the country but counts each person in the population according to his/her
geographical location on the day of the census undertaking. For instance, a person who resides
with her family in Hawassa, but who is traveling on census day and happens to be counted in
Shashemene, would be counted as a resident of Hawassa if the census was a de jure census but
would be assigned to Shashemene if it was a de facto census. Canada and the United States
follow a de jure approach, as do many European countries, for example, Austria, Belgium,
Croatia, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Germany, the Netherlands, Norway, Sweden, and
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Switzerland. Of the more than 230 countries conducting national censuses, however, the de facto
type is much more common than the de jure.
De Facto and De Jure Populations

At any moment in time any specific geographic area has a de facto population, which consists of
all individuals who are present in the area. This concept is unequivocal but may not always be
highly relevant. Consider the following groups:
(1) persons usually resident and present;
(2) persons usually resident but absent;
(3) Persons temporarily present but usually resident elsewhere.
The de facto population comprises (1) and (3), but excludes (2). Often one is interested in the
usually resident, or de jure, population consisting of (1) and (2). The distinction may seem
simple until one considers the cases frequently encountered in practice:
To summarize, the following are the basic features of a population and housing census
a) Individuals in the population and each set of living quarters are enumerated separately
and the characteristics thereof are recorded separately.
b) Universality within a defined geographic area/territory. The population census potentially
covers the whole population in a clearly defined territory. It should include every person
present and/or usual residents depending on whether the type of population count is de
facto or de jure. In the absence of comprehensive population or administrative registers,
censuses are the only source that can provide small area statistics.
c) The enumeration has to be as simultaneous as possible. All persons and dwellings should
be enumerated with respect to the same well-defined reference period.
d) Censuses are usually conducted at defined intervals. Most countries conduct censuses
every 10 years while others every five years. This facilitates the availability of
comparable information at fixed intervals.
Dear learner, mention some of the advantage and disadvantages of population census.
______________________________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________________________
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______________________________________________________________________________
Have you attempted? Good. As shown in the table below, Census has various advantages and
disadvantages.
Table 1.4- Advantages and disadvantages of Census

Advantages Disadvantages
 The coverage aims to be universal  The size and complexity of the exercise
 The census provides an important means that the content and quality control
sampling frame for subsequent surveys efforts may be limited
and studies  The cost of carrying out a census means
 The census can serve as a useful tool for that most countries can pursue an
‘nation-building’, by involving the entire enumeration only every ten years
population  There is usually a significant delay
 Census data avoids the sampling errors between when the data are collected and
that can occur with sample data the results released.
 Censuses provide data for small areas,  Censuses are easily politicised – either by
such as districts and counties, which is groups who feel that they might be
vital for the planning of services systematically undercounted by the
exercise, or by parties found to be larger
than that of other groups
1.4.2. Registration Systems
Define civil registration.
______________________________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________________________
United Nations define civil registration as “the continuous, permanent, compulsory and
universal recording of the occurrence and characteristics of vital events pertaining to the
population as provided through decree or regulation in accordance with the legal requirements of
a country.”
Whereas censuses provide a cross-sectional (one point in time) portrayal of the size,
composition, and distribution of the population, registration systems pertain to the population’s
demographic events (births and deaths and, in some places, migrations) and measure them as
they occur. While censuses are static, registers are dynamic and continuous. Registers apply
18
principally to births and deaths, although many countries also maintain registrations of
marriages, divorces, and abortions. Some countries maintain a migration registration system.
Strictly speaking, a population register is a list (i.e., a register) of persons that includes the
name, address, date of birth, and a personal identification number. Some registers have been
maintained for centuries, such as those in church parishes that record the baptisms and the deaths
of the parishioners. In Europe, the Nordic countries and the Netherlands maintain some kind of
population register, and many developing countries either have them in place or are planning to
implement them. In Eastern Europe under the Communists, “population registers were used for
control (of the people) as well as for administrative purposes, and the successor regimes for the
most part have not maintained them”. The United States does not maintain any kind of national
population register.
The earliest example on record of a population register of families and related household events
was in China during the Han Dynasty (205 BC–AD 220). A special demographic tradition of
China and the East Asian region as a whole was population registration. Its major function,
however, “was the control of the population at the local level” and not necessarily the collection
of continuous data on demographic events. Population registers are of interest to demographers
because they contain birth and death records (certificates). But not all birth and death
registrations occur in the context of population registers. In fact, since a large number of
countries do not maintain them, the registration of many births and deaths occurs outside
population registers.
For most countries in the world, the recording of vital events, that is, births and deaths along with
marriages, divorces, fetal deaths (stillbirths), and induced termination of pregnancies (abortions),
are recorded in their civil registration systems. But these registration systems need not
necessarily be population registers. Indeed, many are not. Although civil registration data are not
100 percent accurate and complete in the more developed nations, their quality is far better than
that in the poorer nations. Although civil registration systems in developing countries are
“seriously defective, it would not be correct that the data are of little value to demographers.”
19
Demographers have developed special techniques for data adjustment and analysis, yielding a
rough notion of trends and differentials in these demographic events.
As articulated by Mary Ann Freedman and James A. Weed (2003: 960), “Vital statistics form the
basis of fundamental demographic and epidemiologic measures.” Vital statistics are the data
derived from civil registration systems, as well as from the actual records of vital events. The
modern origin of vital statistics and their registration may be traced to the English ordinance in
1532 requiring that parish clerks in London maintain, on a weekly basis, the registration of
deaths and christenings. These reports were begun in response to the plagues of the late sixteenth
and early seventeenth centuries and were published in a nearly unbroken series for decades.
Merchants used those data as a rough gauge of the likelihood of their clientele to flee to the
countryside during epidemics.
With regard to the modern era, the registrations of one’s birth and death are fundamental human
rights. The second clause of Article 24 of the International Covenant on Civil shall be registered
immediately after birth and shall have a name”. The ICCPR also states that “for nation states to
take appropriate measures to protect and enhance the life expectancy of their populations, they
must have at their disposal accurate and detailed information about patterns and trends of
mortality”, thus also requiring death registration.
What advantages come from registering vital events?

____________________________________________________________________________
___________________________________________________________________________
The advantages of vital registration can be divided into two categories:
 Legal
 Statistical
When a demographic event is registered, legal documents are issued as proof of this event. This
confers a range of legal benefits upon the holder.
 Registration of a birth establishes and protects the identity of an individual, and confers
citizenship upon them. This legal recognition entitles the individual to state services and
protection from exploitation.
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 The establishment of a legal identity (and the corresponding legal documents) allows
individuals to vote, to be registered for education, and to move between countries
(through the ability to apply for a passport).
 In many countries valid death certificates are required before a burial permit can be
obtained.
 Valid death certificates are required before life assurance payments will be made.
 In the event of a death, marriage certificates and birth certificates showing parentage are
important in securing inheritance and land rights.
In addition to legal benefits for individuals, there are benefits for society which result from the
availability of high quality, up to date information on births, deaths and causes of deaths.
 Continuous registration of births and deaths allows for inter-censal population estimates.
 Death registration and detailed cause of death classification are important for
understanding the health of a population. This can then be used to formulate and
prioritize effective public health policies and interventions.
 The same information allows for monitoring of the effectiveness of public health
interventions. This allows governments to ensure that tax money is spent in effective
ways, and gives accountability to aid donors that donated money is improving the health
of a population in the way that it was intended.
 Vital registration also allows for monitoring progress towards targets, such as
the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) and Sustainable Development Goals
(SDGs). Without continuous registration of vital events, it is difficult to know whether
progress is being made and whether the target is likely to be reached by 2015.
1.4.3. Surveys
In an ideal situation a vital registration system will cover all the demographic events occurring
in a population, and this should be considered the ultimate aim in terms of gathering vital
statistics. However, complete vital registration systems are time-consuming and expensive to set
up, and until this is achieved, sample registration systems can be used to gain high quality
information on births and deaths.
21
Demographers rely on a third source of demographic data, sample surveys, often because
censuses and registration systems do not contain the extensive kinds of information needed to
address some of the more critical demographic questions. This is particularly true with respect to
the analysis of fertility, although it also applies to mortality and migration.
When we contrast censuses and samples, census is a study comprising the whole population of
interest, whereas a sample involves only a part. A population census refers more specifically to a
complete count of the population of an area at a given time. Censuses may be combined with
samples in various ways. On the other hand, Sample surveys are inexpensive, most flexible and
rapid methods.
Surveys are required for the collection of more detailed information. By administering surveys to
carefully selected random samples of the larger populations, demographers are better able to
uncover underlying patterns of demographic behavior than is possible with materials from
censuses and registration systems. Here are some of the major surveys that are used by
demographers.
World Fertility Surveys

Beginning in the 1970s, coordinated cross-national fertility surveys were introduced in the
statistical and demographic communities as an important source of fertility and related
demographic information. Between 1974 and 1986, sample surveys to gather data on
reproductive behavior and related social and psychological indicators were conducted in 62
countries, representing 40 percent of the world’s population, under the auspices of the World
Fertility Survey (WFS).
Demographic and Health Surveys

The WFS was followed by another coordinated international program of research, the
Demographic and Health Survey (DHS), with more than 200 sample surveys carried out in 75
developing countries since 1984. DHSs are nationally representative household surveys with
22
large sample sizes (usually between 5,000 and 30,000 households). These surveys provide data
for many variables in the areas of fertility, population, health, and nutrition. Typically, the
surveys are conducted every five years to permit comparisons over time. Interim surveys are
conducted between DHS rounds and have shorter questionnaires and smaller samples than the
DHS surveys (2,000 to 3,000 households).
Chapter Summary
Dear learner, in this chapter the definition of demography and its relation with population studies
were presented. Demography is defined as the systematic and scientific study of human
populations. The word demography comes from the Greek words δημoσ (demos) for population
23
and γραφια (graphia) for “description” or “writing,” thus the phrase, “writings about
populations.”
Then, we have discussed the fact that Development Studies and Population studies were not
traditionally seen as mainstream academic disciplines. At this time, however, they have their
own professional associations, nationally and globally, and also have their own core of methods
and materials. This section, therefore, focuses on the overview of these two disciplines and their
relationship. Development Studies as a separate branch of economics in the first instance only
emerged after the Second World War with the creation of the UN and the Bretton Woods
institutions, the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, in 1945. On the other hand,
Population Studies as a body of knowledge and cohesive theory has also experienced changes in
content, context and approach, but over a longer period than Development Studies. The
beginnings of Population Studies, though not conceptualized as such at the time, were set the late
eighteenth century with the intellectual controversies over the causes and impacts of the French
Revolution of 1789.
Furthermore, the world population growth trends have been illustrated briefly. For most of
human existence on earth, humanity’s numbers have been few. According to the results of the
2017 Revision, the world’s population reached nearly 7.6 billion in mid-2017. On its current
trajectory, the world’s population is expected to reach 8.1 billion in 2025 and 9.6 billion in 2050
Finally, the sources of population or demographic data i.e. census, vital registration and sample
surveys were elaborated. A census may be likened to taking a snapshot of a population at one
point in time, say, once every ten years, and in this snapshot getting a picture of the size of the
population, its characteristics, and its spatial distribution. Conversely, a register may be thought
of as a continuous compilation of major population events, often births, deaths, marriages,
divorces, and sometimes migrations. As a birth or a death occurs, it is registered with the
government; the registrations thus occur continuously. Demographers rely on a third source of
demographic data, sample surveys, often because censuses and registration systems do not
contain the extensive kinds of information needed to address some of the more critical
demographic questions
24
Review Questions
Part I- True/False Item
Instruction: Write true if the statement is correct Write false if the statement is
incorrect
1. Sample registration systems are time-consuming and expensive as compared to vital
registration.
2. Development Studies as a separate branch of economics emerged before the Second
World War.
3. Population studies has longer history than development studies.
Part I: Multiple Choices

Choose the best answer from the given alternatives (1pt each)
1. Ms. Meron, who resides with her family in Yirgalem, Sidama zone, but who is traveling
on census day and happens to be counted in Shashemene, Arsi Zone, would be counted as
a resident of Yirgalem if the census was a ______ census but would be assigned to
Shashemene if it was a ______ census.
A. De jure, De facto respectively D. De jure in both cases
B. De facto, De jure respectively E. None of the above
C. De facto in both cases
2. Which one of the following is true of the De facto census method?

A. It is used easily to obtain information regarding persons in transit.
B. It provides correct picture of the population in a community.
C. It is less commonly used as compared with De jure.
D. All of the above
3. As compared to Census, population registers
A. Conducted on a decennial basis
B. are the continuous, permanent, compulsory and universal recording
C. are not affected by literacy and communication rates
D. provide complete information about a population
E. are static data sources
4. Which one of the following is wrong about world population?

A. The annual average growth is the highest for Africa as compared to other continents
B. The global population growth rate is projected to fall to 1.5 % /annum by 2050.
C. Since 1974, the doubling time of the world population is below two decades.
25
D. For both developing and developed countries, the population growth rate started to
decrease since 1965.
E. A and C
5. When did the world population start growing rapidly in history?
A. During the First World War
B. During the Second World War
C. After 1950s
D. Since the beginning of the 20th century
6. As compared to the other, which continents show unique population size between the
year 2014-2050?
A. Europe and Asia D. Africa and Asia
B. Europe and Africa E. Oceania and Latin
C. North America and Asia America
Part III- Matching

Match Column A with the appropriate answer with column B
A B
1. De facto Census A. Birth, death, marriage, divorce etc. data of population
2. Demos B. Data collection from selected area which covers only a section or
3. Vital Events portion of the population under consideration.
4. De jure census C. Counting of people on their permanent place of residence.
5. Sample Surveys D. Quantitative statistics and mathematical operations of population
6. Graphia E. Counting persons where they are present at the time of the census
7. Conducting census every period.
ten year F. The potential of having only female births
8. Conducting census every G. Population
five year H. Decennial
I. Writing
J. Quinquennial
Part IV- Short Answer

1. What are the two methods of population census?
2. Write two examples of international surveys.
3. What are the advantages and disadvantages of population census?
26
CHAPTER TWO
DEMOGRAPHIC VARIABLES
INTRODUCTION
Dear learner, in this chapter, the demographic variables which are also known as factors that
affects population are discussed. The chapter has four sections. The first section presents the
concept, the measurements and the theories in relation to fertility. The second section is
dedicated to mortality which is one of the factors responsible to the reduction of population. The
third section focuses on issues related to migration. The last section emphasizes on population
structure and population growth rates.
Objectives:
At the end of this chapter, you will be able to:
 Comprehend measuring demographic variables
 Know how population growth rate is calculated
 Elaborate the theories related to the demographic variables
2.1. Fertility
This section presents the first demographic variable i.e. fertility. The concepts, the methods of
measuring fertility and the theories that explain fertility are discussed.
Upon completion of this section, you will be able to:

 Distinguish among different terms used to describe fertility in the populations
 Identify different sources of data to calculate different indicators of fertility
 Calculate and interpret different crude indicators of fertility
2.1.1. Conceptualization of Fertility
Dear learner, before we discuss about the measurements, let us see some of the concepts which
are essential in the discussion of fertility.
27
Fertility -actual production of male and female births and refers to real behaviour. In
other words, it means the number of live births that occur to a woman during her
reproductive age (15-49).
Reproduction is also actual production, but refers to the production of only female births
(there is no demographic term to refer to the production of only male births).
Fecundity - the potential or the biological capacity of producing live births. It is the
maximum potential capability of a woman/man to give birth. Over the course of her life,
a woman could bear between 13 and 17 children, in the absence of any other factors.
2.1.2. Measurement of Fertility

While measuring the occurrence or incidence of fertility and the other demographic variables,
one has to understand the following concepts:
 Count - the absolute number of a population or demographic event (e.g. a birth), for a
specified time and place.
 Rate - the frequency of a demographic event in a population for a given time period
divided by the population “at risk” for the same time period.
 Rates tell how common it is for a given event to occur.
 Ratio -The relation of one population subgroup to the total population or to another
subgroup
 Mid-year Population- also referred to as the mean population, is regarded as the
population at July 1 and is assumed to be the point at which half of the changes in the
population during the year have occurred. This is the population estimate that is
generally used as the base for the calculation of rates.
Types of fertility Measures include:
 Crude birth rate (CBR)
Number of births per 1000 population
 General fertility rate (GFR)
Number of births per 1000 women
 Age specific Fertility rate ( ASFR)
Number of births in specific age groups of women
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 Total fertility rate (TFR)
Average number of children born per women in a population.
 Gross reproduction rate (GRR)
Births of females per 1000 women of the age 15-49 years.
Dear learner, now let us discuss the measures of fertility one by one in detail with examples.
a) Crude Birth Rate (CBR)
The crude birth rate (CBR) is the first measure of fertility we consider. It is a cross-sectional (i.e.
period) measure and refers to the number of births occurring in a population in a year per 1,000
persons. It is calculated as follows:
Example- The total population of Kuwait in1994 was 1,620,086. In the same year, there were a
total of 38868 births. The CBR is calculated as follows:
Interpretation: There were 24 births per 1000 population in Kuwait in 1994.

Advantages of CBR:
 It is easy and quick method
 Needs small data which may not be detail
 Shows the fertility rate with total population NO
Limitation of CBR:
The CBR is referred to as “crude” because its denominator, the midyear population of the area,
includes many people who are not at the risk of childbearing, such as young women (under age
15) and post menopausal women (older than age 50). (An at-risk population is the population
29
that is at the risk of the event of interest occurring to them.) Another downside is that men are
included in the denominator, and, strictly speaking, men do not bear children, so are thus not
exposed to the risk of childbearing.
b) General Fertility Rate (GFR)
The general fertility rate (GFR) is another cross-sectional measure of fertility. It is superior to the
CBR because it restricts the denominator to women of childbearing ages. The GFR is calculated
as follows:
Where the numerator is the number of births in the population in the year, and the denominator is
the number of females in the midyear population who are in the childbearing ages 15–49.
Example- Ecuador had total population of 2,923,344 for women between the ages 15 to 49. The
total births in this age group are 181,268. Then, the GFR is calculated as follows:
Interpretation: In Ecuador, there were 62 births per 1000 population of women between ages
15-49
Advantages of GFR
It considers age and sex differences in the fertility role (Females and age b/n 15-49).
Thus, the general fertility rate is a better basis to compare fertility levels among populations than
are changes in the crude birth rate
Limitation of GFR
It does not consider specific age variations in fertility. For instance: Age of 25- 30 may not have
similar fertility rates with 40-45 or above.
30
c) Age Specific Fertility Rate (ASFR)
The age-specific fertility rate (ASFR) reflects exactly what its name indicates: It focuses on
births to women according to their age. ASFRs are usually calculated for women in each of the
seven 5-year age groups of 15– 19, 20–24, 25–29, 30–34, 35–39, 40–44, and 45–49. The general
formula for the ASFR for women in age group x to x+n is calculated as follows:
Purpose:
The ASFR has two primary uses: (1) as a measure of the age pattern of fertility, that is of the
relative frequency of childbearing among women of different ages within the reproductive years,
and (2) as an intermediate computation in the derivation of the total fertility rate (TFR)
Example-1 In 1994, Austria had a population 290,998 of women between the age 20-24. It was
also registered that this group of women gave birth to 23,694. Then the age-specific rate can be
calculated as follows:
Interpretation- In Austria, in 1994, there were about 81 live births for every 1000 women ages
20-24.
Example 2- Based on the data given in the table below, Age specific Fertility Rate (ASFR) can
be calculated. In the first column the age group is given. In the second, the number of live births
in each age group is provided. Then, in order to calculate ASFR, what you do is divide column 3
by column 2 and then multiply by 1000 as it is shown. For instance, if we calculate the ASFR for
the age group 15-19, we divide 17879 by 4379520, then we multiply it by 1000. The result will
31
be 4.08. You can also calculate the ASFR for the other age groups and cross check your answer
with what is given under column 4.
Age group No of women in No of births in the Age specific rates per 1000 women
x to x+ 5 the age group age group
(1) (2) (3) (4)=[ (3)/(2)]* 1000
15-19 4379520 17879 4.08 =(17879/4379520)*1000
20-24 4034559 247341 61.31
25-29 3875072 682885 176.23
30-34 4495959 381466 84.85
35-39 5339814 93501 17.51
40-44 4583077 8224 1.79
45-49 4144493 245 0.06
d) Total Fertility Rate (TFR)

The total fertility rate (TFR) is the most popular of all fertility rates used by demographers. Like
the ASFRs, the TFRs take into account the fact that fertility varies by age; unlike the ASFRs,
which are expressed quantitatively as a series of specific rates (usually seven, one for each age
group), the TFR provides a single fertility value
It represents the average number of children a woman would have if she were to pass through her
reproductive years bearing children at the same rates as the women now in each group. The
formula is given as follows:
C = specific age group interval (usually it is 5)
Purpose:
32
The TFR is the most widely used fertility measure for two main reasons: (1) it is unaffected by
differences or changes in age-sex composition, and (2) it provides an easily understandable
measure of hypothetical completed fertility.
Example- Dear learner, this example is based on the data used to calculate the ASFR above. In
order to calculate, what you will do is take the summation of the ASFR of all the age groups, i.e.
4.08+61.31+…, +0.06. This gives you 345.83(as show in the table below). Then, we multiply by
five then divide by 1000. It gives you 1.72 as shown below.
= 1.72
e) Gross Reproduction Rate (GRR)

The gross reproduction rate (GRR) is a standardized rate similar to the TFR, except that it is
based on the sum of age-specific rates that include only female births in the numerators.
Sometimes data are not readily available on the number of female live births reported by age of
the mothers. Thus, the proportion no fall births that are female is usually employed as a constant
and is multiplied against the given TFR, as follows:
33
The value of the constant multiplier, that is, the proportion of births that are female, varies only
slightly from population to population. Most societies, but not all, have about 105 male babies
born per 100 female babies. This results in about 51.2 percent of all births each year being male
births and 48.8 percent being female births. Hence, we may use the following formula to
calculate the GRR:
GRR= TFR*0.488
For instance, the TFR in the United States in 2005 was 2,055.2 per 1000 women of between the
ages of 15 to 49. We may, thus, calculate the GRR for the United States in 2005 as follows:
GRR=TFR∗0.488
=2,055.2∗0.488=1,002.9 per 1000 women between 15-49 i.e. 1 per woman
Activity 2.1
1. In the town of Kolikouro, Mali, there were 5663 births. The total population was 149,442.
Calculate the CBR.
2. In 2007, there were 3,250 births in a city with population of 223,000. Calculate the CBR.
For Questions 3-5, use the data given in the following Table
Age Group Births No of

women in the
age group
15-19 764 14893.2

20-24 2304 11747.2
25-29 1994 9602.3
30-34 1295 8805.5
35-39 564 7549.5
40-44 161 6643.2
45-49 19 4498.8
34
3. Calculate the Age Specific Fertility rate
4. Calculate the TFR.
5. Calculate GRR
2.1.3. World Fertility Trends

Globally, total fertility is expected to fall from 2.5 births per woman in 2010-2015 to 2.2 in
2045-2050 and to 2.0 in 2095-2100, according to the medium-variant projection. However, in
Europe and Northern America, total fertility is projected to increase between 2010-2015 and
2045-2050 from 1.60 to 1.78 in Europe and from 1.85 to 1.89 in Northern America. In Africa,
Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean, and Oceania, fertility is expected to fall between 2010-
2015 and 2045-2050, with the largest reductions projected to occur in Africa. In all regions of the
world, fertility levels are projected to converge to levels around or below the replacement level 1
by 2095-2100.
In 2010-2015, the 83 countries with below-replacement-level fertility accounted for 46 per cent
of the world’s population. The ten most populous countries with below replacement fertility are
China, the United States of America, Brazil, the Russian Federation, Japan, Vietnam, Germany,
the Islamic Republic of Iran, Thailand and the United Kingdom (in order of population size).
Between the years 1970-2015, although fertility has fallen in Africa, the decline began from a
higher initial level, and the pace of decline has been slower than in other major areas. Therefore,
the level of fertility in Africa was considerably higher than that in other regions (see the figure
below).
1
Replacement-level fertility is the level of fertility at which women in the same cohort have
exactly enough daughters (on average) to “replace” themselves in the population
35
Figure 1- Levels of Total Fertility (births per woman), for the World and major areas,
1970-2015
Dear learner, which continents have the highest and the lowest total fertility rate respectively?
(You can use the space provided below to write your answer)
______________________________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________________________
Dear learner, from the figure, we observe that Africa had the highest where as Europe had the
lowest fertility rate. Not only among continents, there was also considerable variation in fertility
levels among countries within the same major area over the past 20 years. In Africa, the total
fertility has fallen significantly in some countries over the past 20 years (such as Djibouti,
Ethiopia and Rwanda), while in other countries fertility has remained virtually unchanged (such
as the Congo, Mali, Niger and Nigeria). At the other end of the spectrum, in 1994, the fertility
rates of virtually all countries in Europe and North America were already below replacement
level. Many countries in Europe have recorded a slight increase in fertility over the past 5 to 10
years, although it has not been sufficient, in most cases, to reach replacement level.
36
Dear learner, when we talk about the population growth of the world, it is highly dependent on
the path that future fertility will take, as relatively small changes in the frequency of
childbearing, when projected over several decades, can generate large differences in total
population. In the medium-variant projection, it is assumed that the global fertility level will
decline from 2.5 births per woman in 2010-2015 to 2.2 in 2045-2050, and then fall to 2.0 by
2095-2100.
Future growth will be influenced not only by future levels of fertility, mortality, and migration
but also by the current age distribution of the world’s population. Thanks to “population
momentum2” a relatively youthful age distribution promotes a more rapid pace of population
growth, whereas a relatively older age distribution contributes to a slower rate of growth or even
population decline.
2.1.4. Factors Affecting Fertility Rates

What are the factors that affect or influence the fertility rate of a society? (You can use the
space provided below to write your answer)
______________________________________________________________________________
_________________________________________________________________________
Dear learner, there are various factors that affect the fertility rates of a society. These can be
grouped as Social, Cultural, Economic, and Politics.
a) Social
 Level of Healthcare
Improvements in health care, sanitation & diet lead to a drop in infant mortality rate e.g. The
Demographic Republic of Congo has a total fertility rate of 6.91 and 0.088 doctors per 1000
people. Availability of contraceptives for couples with knowledge and desire to use it e.g.
Rwanda, where 10% of women practice modern methods of family planning and where the total
fertility rate is 5.12. In Brazil, 70% of women practice modern methods of family planning and
the total fertility rate is 2.21.
2
Population momentum is defined as the tendency for a population to continue to grow after
replacement level fertility is reached.
37
Level of Education
In some countries, access to healthcare and education may be limited e.g. Afghanistan, total
fertility rate of 7.7 with 0.17 doctors per 1000 & a female literacy rate of 13%. Higher female
literacy rates lead to improved knowledge of birth control, more opportunities for employment
and more choice. This may lead to lower fertility rates.
b) Cultural
Religion
In most cases, religions oppose the use of birth control although this influence may lessen with
economic development. In many parts of the world religion/tradition demands high rates of
reproduction.
The Status of Women

Women in some countries are obliged to produce as many children as possible e.g. Nigeria, total
fertility rate 4.9.
c) Economic
Employment Opportunities
With the prospect of a career, women may have less children and marry later. e.g. the average
marital age in the UK is 30. Reduced access to formal employment and other income earning
opportunities means women are forced to devote most of their time and energy to child bearing.
The Cost of Having Children
Children are seen as economic assets in LEDCs. They can be used as workers on land or to bring
in more income. The time spent in education and the cost of childcare makes it more expensive
to have a child. In the UK (TFR 1.66) the estimated cost of raising a child to 21 is £166,000.
d) Politics
Pressure from the Government
Some governments will try to influence the rate of population growth e.g. the Chinese attempting
to reduce the birth rate or Japan attempting to increase it.
38
2.1.5. Theories of Fertility
Do you know any theory related to fertility? If so, use the space provided to write your
answers.
______________________________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________________________
_________________________________________________________________________
Dear leaner, different theories are developed by scholars in order to explain what determines
fertility. In this section, therefore, we will discuss these theories which are conventionally
grouped under three categories: biological theories, cultural theories and economic theories.
In the coming discussion, we will discuss some of the theories from each category.
a) Biological Theories
Dear learner, the biological theories or natural theories of population argue that the law
regulating fertility among human being is the same as that which regulates the growth of plants
and other animals. These theories, therefore, emphasize on what is common to all living beings
and ignore what is unique or peculiar to human beings. The biological theorists believe in the
existence of metaphysical will of nature to perpetuate the species.
The Diet Principle:
Thomas A. Doubleday propounded the ‘diet principle’ in his book The True Law of Population.
While experimenting with plants, Doubleday found that an excessive application of manure
“invariably induces sterility in the plant, and if the doses were increased, disease and death”.
Pursuing the inquiry, he found that the same principle was applicable to animals also. On the
basis of this, he writes that “whenever a species or genus is endangered in the wake of lack of
food, a corresponding effort is invariably made by nature for its preservation and continuance by
an increase of fecundity or fertility”.
On the other hand, a situation of plenty is unfavorable to fertility. With regard to human
population, he wrote that “there is in all societies a constant increase going on amongst that
portion which is worst supplied with food, in short, amongst the poor. Amongst those in the state
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of affluence, and well supplied with food and luxuries, a constant decrease goes on. Amongst
those who form the mean or median between these two opposite states… population is
stationary” (quoted in Coontz, 1979:44). With this law Doubleday attempted to explain differ-
ences in fertility both within and between countries.
Sue de Castro revived Doubleday’s principle that fertility is regulated by diet in 1952 in his
book, Geography of Hunger. Castro has contended that the quantity and quality of protein
consumption regulate fecundity. As did Doubleday before him, Castro argued that there exists a
negative association between crude birth rate (CBR) and protein consumption.
Scholars have rejected the theses of both Doubleday and Castro. Even if reproductive capacity is
determined by dietary intake, it is very difficult to accept the proposition that it influences the
actual performance. There are recent instances of changes in fertility levels, for example, decline
in birth rates in a number of capitalist countries during the period of economic depression or
baby boom experienced in the post-Second World War period, which cannot be attributed to
variation in dietary intake.
Spencer’s Biological Theory:

Herbert Spencer believed that “there exists antagonism between individuation (survival) and
genesis (reproduction)”. When any individual does hard work for his personal development at his
work place, the desire for reproduction decreases. He argued that fecundity decreases when the
complexity of life increases.
In other words, when more energy has been utilized for one’s self-development, the energy
available for reproduction will be less and consequently the population growth will be less. Thus,
with the development of society and for one’s success and survival (individuation), life becomes
more complex which results in reduction in the capacity of reproduction.
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This is observed from the fact that fertility is more in rural individuals whose life is not complex,
whereas fertility is low in an industrial society where life is more complex, the pressure of
education is more and the brains are overtaxing.
We have four different situations which explain the relation between individuation and
genesis:
 The individuation will automatically be low when there is high genesis. This situation we
find among the poor.
 The genesis will be low when there is high individuation. Such a situation we find among
the rich.
 The individuation will improve when the genesis is low.
 The genesis will be high when the individuation is low. In poor people, we find less
individuation and more genesis.
The criticisms of Spencer’s theory of population include absence of empirical evidence. i.e. there
is high fertility rate even in rich families or industrialized societies where people’s life is more
complex. Even when Spencer propounded this theory the birth rate was high in the western
countries.
b) Cultural Theories
Under the cultural theories, attention is given to explanations which view fertility differentials in
terms of factors, both material and non-material, that form part of our cultural milieu. In
particular, such theories emphasize mainly the psychological attributes of individuals, which, in
turn, are the product of prevailing culture. Though, economic considerations are often included
in the explanation, they are treated just one of the several factors affecting psychological
attributes.
Dumont’s Theory of Social Capillarity:

Arsene Dumont (1849-1902) has propounded the Theory of Social Capillarity. Social attraction
or repulsion to a thing is known as Social Capillarity. Dumont studied the growth of population
in France in the later part of nineteenth century and found that the reason for low fertility in
France was high intellectual and aesthetic development.
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In the words of Dumont, “The development of number in a nation is in inverse ratio to the
development of individual.”
According to him, “The direct cause of decline in birth rate was the movement of individual
from the lower to the upper class. The individual tends to rise to higher levels in his social
environment by process similar to physical capillarity.” Further, “what gravity is to the physical
world, capillarity is to the social order”
According to Dumont, there are three principles of population that are related to the stages of
social development:
 In the preventive stage, the Malthusian theory of population applies where human beings
live like animals. On what they can find, they increase in geometrical progression.
 In the intermediate stage, Quillard’s principle of population applies. According to
this, “Population proportions itself automatically.” In such a society, population
increases as food supply increases because population can produce food itself. Here
positive checks do not become necessary.
 In a modern civilized society, Dumont applies his social capillarity principle. In such a
society, every individual wants to achieve higher economic and social status. For this, a
small family is imperative, because one cannot climb high on the social ladder with the
burden of more children on its back.
When an individual earns more income and wealth, his ambition for better position and higher
social prestige goes up and consequently the number of children decreases. Therefore, in a
civilized society due to social capillarity, fertility goes down. When people migrate to cities from
rural or backward areas, their fertility declines.
The theory of social capillarity, however, attracted criticism, as it was not backed by sound
statistical proof. Nevertheless, credit must go to Dumont for underscoring the need of
investigating the psychological attributes of individuals in its social context while explaining the
fertility levels.
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Theory of Increasing Prosperity
In 1910, L. Brentano presented another explanation of fertility differentials in his theory of
increasing prosperity. According to Brentano, the key to fertility differences is rooted in the
differences in material prosperity of different peoples. He argues that man is essentially a
creature of pleasure, the sources of which vary from group to group. The poor with an extremely
restricted number of alternative pleasures tend to find compensation of this deprivation in sexual
indulgence.
This explains high fertility level among them. On the other hand, the wealthy have a large
number of competing pleasures, and in general, their gratification is found outside home.
Brentano suggested that a general decline in fertility levels is the function of technical, scientific,
industrial and commercial progress which makes more and more sources of pleasure available to
a growing number of people.
In order to avail themselves of the facilities of pleasure people must have material means at their
disposal. They have to make choice between family size and opportunities of pleasure. It should,
however, be noted that according to Brentano, decline in birth rate with increasing prosperity
“does not imply an increase in sexual continence”.
Brentano has not been successful in differentiating between sexual enjoyment and pleasure of
parenthood. For the poor, sexual indulgence is identical with the desire of offspring, whereas for
the rich the same is not true. Brentano’s arguments imply that sexual indulgence is the main
pleasure for the poor and lack of information about contraceptive measure leads to high birth
rate. But ignorance rather than pleasure then appears to be the main determinant of fertility levels
among the poor. On the other hand, among the rich since there is no increase in ‘sexual
continence’, the choice is between parenthood and alternative pleasure.
c) Economic Theories
The economic theories are materialist and stress the importance of economic factors in the
overall process of social change, which governs fertility behavior of a population. The economic
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explanations of fertility were developed mostly during the second half of the twentieth century.
The theories propounded by Harvey Liebenstein, Richard A. Easterlin and J.C. Caldwell are
important in this regard.
Incorporating the cost-benefit analysis of children in his theory, Harvey Liebenstein, proposed
that the fertility decision of a couple is based on the balance between utility and disutility of an
additional child. According to Liebenstein, there are three types of utilities of an additional child:
 as a ‘consumption good’ where a child is considered as a source of pleasure for the
parents;
 as a ‘productive unit’ where a child is expected to contribute to the family income after
he enters into the labor force; and
 as a ‘source of security’ for the parents in their old age.
On the other hand, the disutility refers to the direct and indirect costs involved in having an
additional child. While the direct costs relate to the conventional expenses involved in the
bringing up, the indirect costs are the opportunities, measured in economic terms, foregone in the
event of an additional child.
Liebenstein states that a couple makes a ‘rough calculation’ regarding the balance between the
utilities and disutility’s before deciding for an additional child. It should be noted here that
Liebenstein’s emphasis is mainly on the higher order births. Liebenstein mentioned that the
concept of ‘utility and disutility’ is dynamic and is governed by the overall levels of
development of the society. The process of economic development operates through income
effects, survival effects and occupational distribution effects.
Leibenstein’s motivational theory, as explained above, is closely related to the different stages of
economic development. To start with, at the subsistence equilibrium level of income, fertility and
mortality rates are the maximum consistent with the survival rate of population. If the per capita
income is raised above the subsistence equilibrium position, the mortality rate falls without any
drop in the fertility rate. The result is an increase in the growth rate of population.
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Thus, an increase in per capita income tends to raise the growth rate of population. But it is only
up to a point. Beyond that the increase in the per capita income lowers the fertility rate and as
development gains momentum, the rate of population growth declines. This is because with the
increase in per capita income, the desire to have more children to supplement parental incomes,
declines.
Increased specialization following rising income levels and the consequent social and economic
mobility make it a difficult and costly affair to rear a large family. Therefore, the growth rate of
population becomes constant and then starts declining gradually as the economy advances
towards the path of sustained development, as has happened in the case of Japan and Western
countries.
J.C. Caldwell propounded the theory of intergenerational wealth flow to explain the fertility
behavior of people. He argued that the fertility decision of people in any society is rational and is
based on the economic worth of the children. He suggested that fertility levels in a society are
high if children are economically useful to parents, and on the other hand, low if the children are
economic burden for their parents. In other words, if the flow of wealth is from younger
generation to older ones, fertility levels tend to be high. On the contrary, flow of wealth in the
opposite direction, i.e., from parents to children, results in low fertility levels.
Thus, according to Caldwell, it is the direction of intergenerational flow of wealth in terms of

goods and services that determines the fertility levels in any society. In all primitive and
traditional societies children are useful to parents in several ways, and the flow of wealth in such
societies is from younger generation to older generation. A high fertility among such people is,
therefore, economically rational. As against this, in the modern societies, children are economic
liability on parents, and wealth flows from parents to children. This explains a low fertility in
such societies.
According to Caldwell, a reversal in the direction of flow of wealth is a precondition for any
decline in fertility levels. This reversal necessitates emotional and economic nucleation of
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family. In many developing countries this nucleation of family has already begun under the
influence of westernization. Caldwell is of the opinion that further strengthening of this process
will bring down the birth rates in the less developed parts of the world thus bringing down
overall growth in population in coming decades.
R.A. Easterlin provided a more comprehensive theory combining sociology and economics of
fertility. He has explained the link between fertility transition and modernization. Easterlin has
defined the process of modernization as “transformation in economic, social and political
organization and in human personality”. He argues that although fertility transition has
accompanied the process of modernization, the specific links between the two are not clear.
According to him, modernization influences fertility only indirectly. Bongaarts had earlier talked
about a set of ‘proximate determinants’ through which ‘modernization’ acts upon fertility levels.
These proximate determinants include, for instance, deliberate fertility control, postpartum in-
fecundability, waiting time to conception etc. among others. Easterlin has further added a set of
‘intervening variables’ between modernizations and ‘proximate variables’.
These intervening variables are the demand of children, supply of children and costs involved in
fertility regulations. While the demand of children refers to the number of surviving children a
couple would want if fertility regulations were costless, supply of children is the number of
surviving children a couple would have if fertility is not deliberately controlled. The costs of
fertility regulations involve both objective and economic costs.
Thus, in Easterlin’s opinion, the process of modernization directly influences demand, supply
and regulation costs, which, in turn, determine the deliberate control. And finally, deliberate
measures of fertility control in conjunction with other proximate determinants shape the
observed fertility levels in a society.
In a pre-modern society the demand for children is greater because of the nature of the economy
and adverse mortality conditions. The individual couples in such societies, however, cannot
produce as many children as they want, and demand for children, thus, exceeds supply. In such
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circumstances, the couples tend to have as many children as possible. In other words, the
observed fertility is identical to natural fertility. In due course of time, the process of
modernization sets in and improving mortality conditions increase the potential supply of
children. The regulation costs begin to decline along with a corresponding decline in the demand
for children. Since the society lacks deliberate attempts to limit family size, the couples now
have more children than they want.
Thus emerges the situation of an excess of supply over demand that generates motivation for
family size limitation. The couples then weigh the disadvantages of excess supply against the
regulation costs. In the initial stage, since fertility regulation costs are high, natural fertility
continues to prevail. As modernization proceeds, the excess supply over demand further grows
and motivation for fertility control becomes still stronger.
Since regulation costs have also undergone decline, the motivation for family size control is
strong enough to offset the former. The couples begin to take deliberate actions to control
fertility, and actual family size falls below potential supply though still exceeding demand.
Eventually, in the subsequent stages, as motivation grows further stronger and regulation costs
lower, a point is reached when actual family size corresponds to demand.
Activity 2.2
List some of the Biological, Cultural and Economic
theories of fertility
2.2. Mortality: Death Rates

Dear learner, in this section you will learn about morality which refers to death. It starts with the
definition of concepts. Then, it discusses the measurements of mortality. Next, it elaborates
about the mortality trends of the world. Finally, it explains the theories of Mortality.
Objectives:
 Explain mortality
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 Distinguish the difference between maternal mortality rate and Maternal mortality ratio.
 Calculate and interpret different measures of mortality
 Illustrate the theories of mortality
2.2.1. Conceptualization
Death is the permanent disappearance of all evidence of life at any time after live birth has taken
place (UN & WHO).
Death deals with issues of post-natal cessation.
Prenatal cessation of life is not considered as death. Rather, as abortion or still birth.
2.2.2. Measuring Mortality

There are various measures of mortality of infants, children, mothers and others. The rate of
mortality is usually measured as: Crude death rate, Age specific death rate, Cause specific death
rate, Infant Mortality Rate, Child mortality rate, and Maternal Mortality rate/ratio
a) Crude Death Rate

An easily understood and interpreted method for quantifying mortality, the crude death rate
(CDR), is the number of deaths in a population in a given year per one thousand members of the
population. It is expressed as
CDR= Error: Reference source not found

Example 1- The total deaths in 1990 in Turkey were 405,000 while the total population was
61,644,000. Then the Crude death rate can be calculated as follows:
Interpretation: In the early 1990s, the death rate in Turkey was 6.6 per 1,000 populations.
Example: In country X in 2005,
Total No of deaths = 1, 570,000
No of total population = 22, 965,000
CBR = (1, 570,000/22,965,000)*1000= 68.4
Interpretation: There were 68 deaths from 1000 people in country X in 2005.
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b) Age specific death rate( ASDR)
Because death varies so considerably with age, demographers prefer to use age-specific death
rates (ASDR) as a more precise measurement of mortality. ASDRs are sometimes referred to as
“M” rates. The ASDR (or nMx) is the number of deaths to persons in a specific age group per
1,000 persons in that age group. Its formula is:
nMx = Error: Reference source not found
Where “n” is the width of the age group and “x” is the initial year of the age group. For instance,
the ASDR for age group 15–19 is referred to as 5M15. The ASDR is not crude because deaths to
persons in the age group x to x + n are examined in relation to the number of persons in the age
group x to x+n.
Example: In country X in 2005,
No of death in age group (50-55 ) = 25,000
No of population in age group ( 50-55) = 1, 760,000
ASDR = (25,000/1,760,000)*1000=14.2
Interpretation: There were 14 deaths from 1000 people in the age group (50-55) in country X in
2005.
c) Cause Specific Death Rate ( CSDR)
Cause-specific death rates are usually expressed in deaths per 100,000 because, for most causes
of deaths, the rates of occurrence are very low. The formula is given as :
Example 1- In country X in 2005,

No of death in HIV/AIDS = 2,749, 578
No of total population = 17, 956, 564
CSDR = (2,749/17,956,564)*100000
Interpretation: There were 15 deaths from 100000 people in country X in 2005 because of
HIV/AIDS disease.
Example 2- In 1996, the total population of US was 265,283,783 and the number of deaths
caused by cancer was 544,278. Then, the cause specific death rate is calculated as follows:
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Interpretation- In 1996, 205 persons per 100,000 populations died of cancer in the United
States
d) Infant Mortality Rate (IMR)
The infant mortality rate is the number of deaths of infants under age 1 per 1,000 live births in a
given year. The formula is given as follows
Example 1: In country X in 2005,

No of infant death = 546, 975
No of live births = 2, 356, 264
IMR = (546, 975/2,356,264)*1000=232.1
Interpretation: There were 232 deaths of infants from 1000 live births in country X in 2005.
e) Child Mortality Rate( CMR)
The Child Mortality rate (CMR) is the number of deaths of children under age 5 per 1,000 live
births in a given year
f) Maternal Mortality Ratio/Rate ( MMR)

The maternal mortality ratio is the number of women who die as a result of complications of
pregnancy or childbearing in a given year per 100,000 live births in that year. Deaths due to
complications of spontaneous or induced abortions are included. The formula to calculate MMR
is:
Example. The total live births in Russia in the year 1994 were 1,408,159. At the same year, the
number of maternal deaths was 185. Based on the information given, we can calculate Maternal
Mortality ratio as follows:
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Interpretation: There were 13 maternal deaths per 100,000 live births in Russia in 1994.
Dear learner, what is the difference between Maternal Mortality Rate and Maternal Mortality
Ratio? (You can use the space provided below to write your answer)
______________________________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________________________

The basic difference between the two measures arises from the denominator used during the
calculation. In the case of Maternal Mortality Ratio, the denominator is the total number of live
births whereas in the case of Maternal Mortality Rate as shown below, the denominator is the
number of women between the ages of 15-49.
Maternal Moratality Rate is calculated as:
The following boxes also show the difference between the two clearly.
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Purpose:
The maternal mortality ratio is the most widely used measure of maternal deaths. It measures
obstetric risk (i.e., the risk of dying once a woman is pregnant). It therefore omits the risk of
being pregnant (i.e., fertility, in a population, which is measured by the maternal mortality rate or
the lifetime risk).
Maternal mortality is widely acknowledged as a general indicator of the overall health of a

population, of the status of women in society, and of the functioning of the health system. High
maternal mortality ratios are thus markers of wider problems of health status, gender inequalities,
and health services in a country. The maternal mortality ratio is therefore useful for advocacy
purposes, but lacks information on the causes of high maternal mortality or the interventions
required to reduce maternal deaths.
Activity 2.3
1. In 1995, Niger had 548,000 births. In 1996 the country registered 74,528 deaths to
children under age 1. What will be the Infant mortality rate?
2. In country X, 3600 of 15-19 years of a group died in the year 2009. The total mid-year
population of the same age group was 50000. Find out age specific death rate.
3. Using the data given of hypothetical country on the table below, answer the questions
from a-c
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Given Value
Number of women between 15-49 10000
Number of live births 200
Number of children mortality below 5 years old 50
Number of mothers death due to pregnancy and birth 10
Number of death of infants 10
a) Calculate the maternal Mortality rate

b) Calculate the infant mortality rate
c) Calculate the child mortality rate
4. Venezuela had an infant death of 10016 in the year 1996. In the same year, there were
595816 total live births. Calculate the Infant Mortality Rate.
2.2.3. World Mortality Trends
Dear learner, this part discusses how the world population changed in terms of life expectancy,
maternal mortality rate, infant mortality rate and crude death rate.
In the 20 years since the Cairo Conference, life expectancy (the average number of additional
years one could expect to live) has increased worldwide, furthering gains achieved in earlier
decades. Life expectancy at birth for the world as a whole rose from 64.8 years in the period
1990-1995 to 70.0 years in the period 2010-2015, a gain of 5.2 years . The gains achieved by the
world’s major areas ranged from 3.3 years in North America to 6.5 years in Africa. Particularly
noteworthy is the fact that the least developed countries made substantial progress, gaining 8.9
years of life expectancy over the same period.
The 2017 UN Revision report confirms that substantial improvements in life expectancy have
occurred in recent years. Globally, life expectancy at birth has risen from 65 years for men and
69 years for women in 2000-2005 to 69 years for men and 73 years for women in 2010-2015.
However, large disparities between countries remain. At one extreme, countries or areas with a
life expectancy of 82 years or more for both sexes combined include Australia, Hong Kong SAR
(China), Iceland, Italy, Japan, Macao SAR (China), Singapore, Spain and Switzerland. At the
other extreme, countries with a life expectancy below 55 years include the Central African
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Republic, Chad, Côte d'Ivoire, Lesotho, Nigeria, Sierra Leone, Somalia and Swaziland. Globally,
life expectancy for both sexes combined is projected to rise from 71 years in 2010-2015 to
77 years in 2045-2050 and eventually to 83 years in 2095-2100 (UN, 2017).
Modern vaccination campaigns against malaria, smallpox, yellow fever, and cholera as well as
the proliferation of public health facilities, clean water supplies, improved nutrition, and public
education have all worked together over the past three decades to lower death rates by as much
as 50% in parts of Asia and Latin America and by over 30% in much of Africa and the Middle
East. Death rates have fallen for all age groups. Nevertheless, the average life span remains about
12 years greater in the developed countries. This gap has been sharply reduced in recent decades.
For example, in 1950, life expectancy at birth for people in developing countries averaged 35 to
40 years, compared with 62 to 65 years in the developed world. Considerable progress has been
made on reducing the under-5 mortality rate. For example, according to UN compilations
between 1990 and 2008 it fell from 121 per 1,000 to 74 per 1,000 in South Asia, from 73 to 38
per 1,000 in South Eastern Asia, and from 52 to 23 per 1,000 in Latin America and the
Caribbean. Although the under-5 mortality rate declined from 184 to 144 per 1,000 in sub-
Saharan Africa in this period, progress in the region continued to lag.
2.2.4. Factors Effecting Mortality

What are the factors that affect mortality of a given country? (You can use the space
provided below to write your answer)
______________________________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________________________
Dear learner, the following are some of the factors that affect the mortality rate in a society:
Age distribution - The higher the proportion of old people to young people, the higher the
death rate since older people are more likely to die.
Gender - Women generally have a higher life expectancy than men, possibly due to the
lifestyle or biological differences preventing certain diseases.
Occupation - In some countries people may be employed in dangerous occupations
increasing the death rate.
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Income - Low income levels correlate to a low life expectancy whilst high income levels
correlate with high life expectancy. This is because a high income allows people to afford
medical care, higher standards of living and healthier foods, prolonging their life.
Literacy - Areas with high literacy levels have higher life expectancies whereas areas
with low literacy rates have low life expectancies. The reasoning behind this is that when
people can read & write, they can obtain higher paying jobs and therefore receive a
higher income improving their life expectancy. In addition, when people can read they
can read information on preventing the spread of disease and basic hygiene standards
improving life expectancy.
Access to food - Countries with a lack of food have low life expectancies since the people
suffer from malnutrition and are more susceptible to diseases due to a weakened immune
system increasing the mortality rates.
Medical Facilities - Access to vaccination programs helps to prolong life expectancy and
prevent the spread of diseases. Equipment such as mosquito nets also helps prolong life
expectancy. Access to medical clinics and doctors will also help to substantially lower the
death rate. Access to and usage of these services is dependent on income and literacy
rates however.
There are also factors specifically affecting Infant Mortality Rate/IMR. These include
 Age of Mother, Birth Control and Birth Interval
Younger mothers (less than 20 years) giving birth generally results in higher infant mortality
rates. The same is true for older women (40 - 49 years).
As mothers leave more time between successive babies, the infant mortality rate falls. For
example, having a child within 2 years of a previous one results in a IMR of 110 however having
a child within 4 years of another results in an IMR of 39.
 Sex of Infant
Baby girls are more likely to die from neglect than boys due to the requirement of a boy for
work, looking after parents, land etc in some countries.
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 Education Level of Mother
Areas with high literacy rates generally have low IMRs since mothers are able for sad about
child care, what to eat & do during pregnancy and how to stay healthy.
 Status of Women in Society
In some cultures, women are required to have children which results in a high IMR due to the
increased frequency of births. In addition, in some countries, women aren’t able to see doctors,
which can result in a substantially higher IMR.
 Income
Countries with a high IMR generally have a low income and countries with a high income
generally have a low IMR. Countries with more money have access to better sanitary healthcare,
vaccinations and more nutritious food resulting in a reduced IMR.
 Climate
Equatorial areas with hot climates have higher IMRs due to droughts causing a shortage of food
and water for the young. In addition, the hot climates increase the spread of disease again
increasing the IMR.
2.2.5. Theories of Mortality

Demographic Transition Theory (DTT): The demographic transition theory is a generalized
description of the changing pattern of mortality, fertility and growth rates as societies move from
one demographic regime to another. Demographic transition refers to a population cycle that
begins with a fall in the death rate, continues with a phase of rapid population growth and
concludes with a decline in the birth rate. (DTT will be discussed in detail in the next chapter).
Epidemiological transition theory (ETT) focuses on the society-wide decline of infectious
disease and the rise of chronic degenerative causes of death as postulated by Abdel Omran
(1971).
There are three stages:

The first is the age of pestilence and famine, in which the primary causes of mortality were
influenza, pneumonia, smallpox, tuberculosis, and other related diseases
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The second is the age of receding pandemics, in which there was a decline in mortality due to
improved sanitation and increases in standards of living and public health, resulting in a steady
increase in life expectancy to between ages 30 and 50 years.
The third stage is known as the era of degenerative and manmade diseases (heart disease, cancer,
and stroke), in which mortality declines are due to medical advances in the prevention and
treatment of infectious diseases.
Rogers and Hackenberg (1987) have noted a fourth “hybristic stage” where mortality is heavily
influenced by individual behaviour and lifestyle choices.
2.3. Migration
In previous sections, we discussed two of the three ways that populations change their size by
adding or subtracting members. People are added to a population through births and are taken
away through deaths. We now turn to the third and last way that populations change their size,
namely, migration. The section starts with the definition of concepts and discusses how to
measure migration rates. Finally we will discuss the theories of migration.
Objectives
 distinguish the difference between internal and international migration
 explain the international migration trends of the world
 calculate and interpret different measures of migration
 discuss theories related to international migration
2.3.1. Concepts and Definitions

The United Nations describes migration as the movement of a person or persons from one place
to another, involving a permanent change of address. Migration can be within a country or to
another. Temporary movements cannot be considered as migration.
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IOM defines a migrant as any person who is moving or has moved across an international border
or within a State away from his/her habitual place of residence, regardless of
 the person’s legal status;
 whether the movement is voluntary or involuntary;
 what the causes for the movement are; or
 What the length of the stay is.
There are two main types of migration, namely, within a country and between countries; the
former is internal migration, and the latter, international migration. The dynamics of the two
kinds of migration differ significantly, and many of their concepts and theories are also different.
We will see that although their theories are more or less governed by “push” and “pull” factors,
they differ in their emphasis and focus. Let us discuss first the internal migration.
a) Internal Migration
Internal migration is the change of permanent residence within a country, involving a
geographical move that crosses a political boundary, usually a county or county-type
geographical unit. Not all changes in residence are migrations, however. Indeed, demographers
distinguish between “movers” and “migrants.” Any person who changes residence, whether the
change involves moving across the street or from one sub city to another, is a mover. A migrant
is a person whose residential move involves the crossing of a political boundary.
Internal migration can be classified based on movement directions of migrants as Rural to Urban
migration, Rural to rural migration, Urban to Urban migration and Urban to Rural migration
What is the difference between local movement and Migration? (You can use the space
provided to write your answer)
______________________________________________________________________________
_________________________________________________________________________
Migration is different from local movement because migration refers to the geographical
movement resulting in the permanent change of residence that involves the crossing of a
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county/region or province boundary. Local movement is the short-distance change of residence
within the same community that does not involve crossing a county jurisdictional boundary.
Dear learner, the other concepts that need elaboration in internal migration are the following: In-
migration refers to the residential migration of persons to an area of destination; out-migration
refers to the migration of persons from an area of origin. The area of origin is the area or
community where the migration began, and the area of destination is the area or community
where the migration ended. Return migration is the migration of persons back to their area of
origin at some time after their initial out-migration.
Net migration refers to the migration balance of an area, consisting of the number of in-migrants
minus the number of out-migrants; the net balance may be positive (representing a net
population gain to the area) or negative (representing a net loss) or, conceivably, zero. Every
time we migrate, we are simultaneously an inmigrant and an out-migrant. But we are never a net
migrant. The net migration concept applies only to populations and geographic areas, not to
individuals. In contrast, the concepts of in-migration, out-migration, and return migration apply
to both persons and geographic areas.
Like the concept of net migration, several other migration concepts apply only to geographic
areas. Gross migration is the sum of migration for an area and is comprised of the in-migration
into the area plus the out-migration from the area.
b) International Migration
Somewhat similar to the situation with the study of internal migration, demographers have
developed a fairly standard set of concepts and definitions for studying international migration.
The first distinction is between immigration and emigration. Immigration refers to the migration
of people into a new country for the purpose of establishing permanent residence; an immigrant
is a person who enters a new country of permanent residence and crosses an international
boundary in doing so. These concepts are analogous in the study of internal migration to in-
migration and in-migrant. Conversely, emigration refers to the permanent departure of people
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from a country; an emigrant is one who migrates away from a country with the intention of
establishing a permanent residence elsewhere. The analogous internal migration concepts are
out-migration and out-migrant.
In every international migration, a migrant is simultaneously an immigrant and an emigrant. The

key element in the definition of an immigrant is the establishment of a permanent residence in
the new country. This usually means residence in the destination country for at least one year,
and is referred to as long-term immigration. The number of long-term immigrants in the world
has increased considerably in recent decades, from around 75 million in 1965 to 120 million in
1990 to 190 million in 2006. Approximately 3 percent of the world’s population in 2006
consisted of long-term immigrants. Although this is a relatively small percentage, it is a very
large absolute number.
Define remigration. (You can use the space provided to write your answer)
______________________________________________________________________________
_________________________________________________________________________
Remigration refers to the migration of international migrants back to their original countries of
origin. A remigrant is an international migrant who at some later point in time moves back to his
or her original country of residence. Oftentimes, international migrants return to their countries
of origin in their later years of life (see the last section of this chapter). For example, let’s say
that a person leaves Ireland and moves to the United States. This person is an emigrant from
Ireland and an immigrant to the United States. If at some later point in time the person decides to
leave the United States and move back to Ireland, we would refer to him or her as a remigrant.
The analogous concept with respect to internal migration is return migrant.
Who is a refugee? (You can use the space provided to write your answer)
______________________________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________
A refugee or an asylum seeker is one who involuntarily emigrates from his or her native
country because of persecution, threat of violence, or extreme deprivation, often going to a
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neighboring country. Postcolonial migration began in the 1950s as a result of the decolonization
of mainly Southern nations. Indigenous peoples moved from former colonial countries to the
European countries that had colonized them in order to pursue better living conditions or to
escape political persecution.
Economic migrants are voluntary migrants motivated by economic aspirations; this flow is
more likely to occur from the less to the more developed countries (the latter group is defined as
all the countries of Europe and North America plus the countries of Australia, New Zealand, and
Japan). Most international migration is economically motivated, and most immigration these
days is to the more developed countries. Of the 190 million long-term immigrants in the world in
2006, 115 million resided in more developed countries (United Nations, 2006).
Douglas Massey developed a slightly different set of international migrant categories on the
basis of whether the migration is voluntary or involuntary and whether the migrants “are well or
poorly endowed with human capital”. People who migrate involuntarily and possess few if any
skills are refugees. If their migration is involuntary but they possess significant human capital,
they are asylum seekers. If they move voluntarily but possess little if any human capital, they are
labor migrants. Massey’s final category is skilled immigrants: “their migration decisions reflect
the desire to maximize returns to their investments in skills, training and education”.
2.3.2. Measurements of migration

There are inherent difficulties in measuring migration that are not generally encountered when
analyzing fertility or mortality. Births and deaths are registered at the time of occurrence, but
generally the residential movement of a person is not. A few countries, for example, China and
those in Scandinavia, require people to register with government officials when they move from
one place to another. In most countries, including the United States, there are no such
requirements; thus, it is necessary to rely on other types of data for measuring migration
National and international migration can be measured in terms of:

 Gross Rate of out migration/emigration rate
 Gross Rate of in-migration/immigration rate
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 Net migration Rate
a) Gross Outmigration Rate ( GOMR) and Emigration Rate
Example: In country Y in 2010,

No of out migrants = 1723
No of total population = 265,788
GOMR = (1723/265,788)*1000=6.5
Interpretation: In 2010, the out migration rate in country y is 6.5 persons per 1000 residents.
i.e. from 1000 residents 6.5 of them out migrated in 2010.
b) Gross in-migration Rate (GIMR) and Immigration Rate (IR)

The immigration rate is the number of immigrants arriving at a destination per 1,000 populations
at that destination in a given year:
Example 1: In country Y in 2010,

Number of in migrants = 593
Total population = 265,788
GIMR = (593/265,788)*1000=2.2
Interpretation: In 2010 the in migration rate in country y is 2.2 persons per 1000 residents. i.e.
from 1000 residents 2.2 of them are in migrants in 2010.
The Immigration Rate is also calculated with similar formula except the numerator is the
number of immigrants which refers to international migrants.
c) Net migration Rate( NMR)
The net migration rate for international migration shows the net effect of immigration and
emigration on an area’s population, expressed as increase or decrease per 1,000 population of the
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area in a given year. Net migration for internal migration is the difference between in migration
and out migration. The result can have positive (+ve) or Negative (– ve) values.
From the above Examples,

Out migration rate = 1723
In migration rate= 593
No of total population = 265,788
NMR = [(593 – 1723)/265,788]*1000= -4.252
Interpretation: There were 4.252 net decreases of persons per 1000 population of country Y in
2010.
Activity 2.4
1. In 2002, a central African nation had 8,320 immigrants and 7249 emigrants, according to
their international arrivals and departure statistics. The total population (June 2002) was
estimated at 1,258,000. What will be the NMR?
2. Take the case of Sweden who had 33884 emigrants, 39895 immigrants, and 8,844,499
total populations. Based on the given information , calculate
 The Emigration rate
 The immigration rate
 The Net migration rate
2.3.3. Trends of International Migration
International migration has increased in size, scope, complexity and demographic significance
over the past 20 years. Since 1990, international migratory flows have become increasingly
diverse, and many countries are now simultaneously countries of origin, destination and transit.
In 2013, the number of international migrants worldwide reached 232 million, up from 154
million in 1990. Although this represents an increase of 78 million people, the share of
international migrants in the world population increased only slightly, from 2.9 per cent in 1990
to 3.2 per cent in 2013. Net international migration (the number of immigrants minus emigrants)
has become a primary source of population growth in the more developed regions.
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The volume of the net inflow of migrants to high-income countries in 2010-2015 (3.2 million per
year) represented a decline from a peak attained in 2005-2010 (4.5 million per year). High-
income countries with a net inflow of more than 100 thousand migrants per year in 2010-2015
included the United States of America, Germany, Saudi Arabia, Canada, the United Kingdom,
Australia, Oman, Kuwait and Qatar (ordered by size of the net inflow). Among upper-middle-
income countries, excluding those experiencing a large influx of refugees, the Russian
Federation, South Africa and Malaysia also had a net inflow of more than 100 thousand migrants
per year in 2010-2015. The countries with a net outflow of more than 100 thousand migrants per
year in 2010-2015, excluding those dominated by refugee movements, were India, Bangladesh,
China, Pakistan, the Philippines and Spain.
The Syrian refugee crisis has had a major impact on levels and patterns of international
migration in recent years, affecting several countries. The estimated net outflow from the Syrian
Arab Republic was 4.2 million persons in 2010-2015. Most of these refugees went to Syria’s
neighboring countries, contributing to an unusually large influx of migrants to Turkey (net
inflow of 1.6 million over five years), Lebanon (1.25 million) and Jordan (975 thousand).
2.3.4. Drivers of Migration

Dear learner, why do people migrate? (You can use the space provided below to write your
answer)
______________________________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________________________
There are different reasons as to why people migrate from place to place. These include
economical, environmental, socio-cultural or political reasons. Migration can be voluntary or
forced, temporary or permanent, national or international. Population movements are driven and
sustained by potential push and pull forces due to an imbalance in economic activities and
opportunities.
Generally speaking, the factors can be grouped as pull and push factors. Push factors are features
of the home area which creates pressure and so causes people to move away. e.g. persecution,
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unemployment & poverty. Pull factors operate at places outside of the migrant’s home area to
attract individuals to a new location. E.g. political asylum, a promotion, high living standards in
another area. The following diagram shows the list of pull and push factors
2.3.5. Theories of Migration

There are various theories with regard to national and international migrations. These theories
discuss the factors that determine the migration of a person. In this section, we discuss about
these theories starting from internal migration.
Theories of Internal Migration
Dear learner, each internal migration theory tends to focus more on certain pushes, pulls, or
obstacles, which we discussed in the previous section, than on others. The main theoretical
models seek to explain internal migration in terms of the effects of distance, income, the physical
costs of migration, information, personal characteristics, individual expectations, and community
and kinship ties.
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The distance model states that long distance discourages migration because the costs involved in
migration are substantial and are closely related to distance.
The income model argues that income and job opportunities provide a better explanation of in-
migration than they do for out-migration; destination characteristics also help determine the
location to which the migrant will move.
The physical costs model suggests that physical costs influence resource allocation and
migration by influencing the private costs of migration.
The information model emphasizes that “the availability of information concerning alternative
localities plays a prominent role in the potential migrant’s decision regarding a destination”.
The personal characteristics model argues that personal demographic characteristics (e.g., age,
sex, education, number of dependents, networks, and race).
The individual expectations model is based on individual expectations about the advantages and
disadvantages of the home community versus possible alternative destination communities.
The community and kinship ties model -the individual’s potential for adjustment through the
availability of aid in location at an alternative area of residence.
Dear learner, the theories that we discussed so far focus mainly on individuals and why they
move or do not move. Demographers have developed other kinds of theories that focus less on
individuals per se than on populations and their geographic areas. Rather than asking why
individuals move, the aggregate theories ask why some areas increase in population size through
migration, why others decrease through migration, and why still others are not influenced one
way or the other via migration. Sociological human ecology provides a perspective for
considering the effects of migration on populations and geographic areas.
From the perspective of human ecology, migration is the major mechanism of social change and
adaptability for human populations. Knowledge of migration patterns tells us about how
“populations . . . maintain themselves in particular areas”. This approach asserts that human
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populations redistribute themselves via net migration in order to attain equilibrium between their
overall size and the life chances available to them.
The theoretical foundation of this approach is based on the interdependence of the four
conceptual rubrics of population, organization, environment, and technology. All populations
adapt to their environments, according to their social and sustenance organization; their
technology; and the size, composition, and distribution of their population. The environment is
comprised of both social and physical factors, and it sets constraints on the population and the
form and characteristics of its organization. The technology at the population’s disposal sets the
boundaries for the form and type of environmental adaptation that the population
assumes.Migration is the most efficient agent for returning the human ecosystem to a state of
equilibrium, or balance, between its size and organization.
Theories of International Migration
There are several theories of international migration, most of which focus on the determinants of
voluntary migration. Levels of analysis include the individual, the household, the country, and
the world. Some of the theories are discussed briefly as follows:
The neoclassical economic model

It is the oldest and best-known theory of international labour migration. According to this theory,
migration occurs on account of individual cost–benefit decisions to maximize expected incomes
through international movement. Workers are attracted from low-wage countries with adequate
labour to high-wage countries with limited labour.
The new economics of migration is a theory developed in recent years

This theory argues that migration decisions are made not only by isolated individuals but also by
larger units, such as families and households. Migration occurs not only to increase individual
earnings but also to minimize household risks and to protect the family from market failures.
The dual labour market theory,
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It argues that migration stems from the demands of the economic structure of industrial societies.
International migration is caused not only by the push factors of the origin countries. Inherent
tendencies in modern capitalism lead labour markets to separate into two sectors: “the primary
sector that produces jobs with secure tenure, high pay, generous benefits, and good working
conditions; the secondary sector typified by instability, low pay, limited benefits, and unpleasant
or hazardous working conditions”. Employers are inclined to turn to migrants to fill the jobs in
the secondary sector.
The world systems theory of migration

It argues that IM is the natural result of the globalization of the market economy. In the process
of global industrialization, a large number of people are released from traditional industries, such
as farming, state-owned industries, and handicrafts. The development of the global market
economy attracts human capital to a relatively small number of global cities.
Migration Network Theory

It focuses on networks, that is, the interpersonal ties that connect migrants, former migrants,
potential migrants, and non-migrants in the origin and destination countries. The networks
increase the likelihood of international movement by decreasing migrant risks and costs and
increasing the net earnings to migration. Networks make it easier for new migrants to find jobs
and gain access to required resources in their destination countries.
2.3.6. Consequences of International Migration

Dear learner, what are the consequences of international Migration? (You can use the
space provided below to write your answer)
______________________________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________________________
The consequences depend on whether the country is the origin or the destination of the
migration. They can be categorized as economic, social and political impacts.
a) Consequences of Migration on the Country of Origin
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Economic Impacts
Positive
The area benefits from remittances sent home.
 Upon return, migrants bring new skills to the country such as the ability to speak foreign
languages. These new skills can help to improve the economy in the country of origin.
 There is less pressure on resources such as food and social services such as health care.
Negative
 Loss of young workforce; those with skills and those with entrepreneurial talents move,
slowing economic development.
 Loss of labor may reduce inward investment by private companies, increasing
dependencies on government initiatives.
Social Impacts
Positives
 Population density is reduced and birth rate falls as it’s the younger population who
migrates. This can help ease overpopulation.
 Remittances sent home by economic migrants can be used to finance improved education
& health service.
 Returning migrants increase social expectations for communities, for example, increasing
demand for better leisure facilities.
Negatives
 Marriage rates fall and family structures break down as men migrate producing a
generation of single mums.
 Lots of young people migrating out of the country can increase the dependency ratio.
 Returning retired migrants may increase social costs on the community as support
mechanisms aren’t in place for them.
 Migration of men and young families can cause a loss of cultural leadership and
traditions.
Political Impacts
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 Policies to encourage natural increase can be developed.
 Policies to encourage immigration to counteract outflow.
 Requests for international aid.
b) Consequences of Migration on the Host Country
Economic Impacts
Positive
 Migrants take up less desirable, menial jobs which natives would not take but need
filling.
 The host country can gain skilled labor for cheap.
 There is a labor surplus; those with skills and education fuel the economy.
 The “skill gap” in many host countries can be filled by migrants.
 Costs of retirement can be transferred to the country of origin.
Negatives
 Migrant children must be educated; they won’t necessarily speak the native language of
the host country.
 There is an over dependency in some industries on migrant labor, leading to a lack of
jobs for people native to the host country.
 Much of the money earned by the migrants isn’t spent in the host country and is instead
sent back to the country of origin.
 More people increase the pressure on resources and services such as health care systems.
Social Impacts
Positive
 The creation of a multiethnic society increases understanding and tolerance of other
cultures.
 There is an influx of new or revitalized services
 People from other countries can encourage the learning of new languages, helping people
develop skills for working internationally.
Negatives
 The dominance of males is reinforced (due to the large number of male migrants),
especially in cultures where women already have a low status.
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 Aspects of cultural identity are lost, especially in second generation children.
 Segregated ethnic areas are created e.g. China Town. Schools become dominated by
migrant children.
Political Impacts
 Discrimination against ethnic groups & minorities which can lead to civil unrest and
extremism.
 Calls for control on immigration.
 Entrenchment of attitudes which may encourage fundamentalism.
2.4. Population Growth

Dear learner, so far we discussed about the three factors that are responsible for population
change. In this section we will discuss concepts like population growth rate and doubling Time.
Objectives
After a successful completion of the lesson, you will be able to:
 explain natural population increase
 calculate the doubling time of population
Dear learner, first let us discuss about population growth which can be classified as natural
increase of population and population growth rate.
The differences between births and deaths in a population produces the Natural Increase (or
Decrease) of a population. If the difference is positive, it is known as Natural increase. If it is
negative, then it is known as Natural decrease.
The rate of Natural Population increase is the rate at which a population is increasing (or
decreasing) in a given year due to excess (or deficit) of births over deaths expressed as a
percentage of the base population.
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Example: In Poland, there were 429000 births and 386000 deaths. The total population during
that time was 38,609,400. Hence, the rate of natural increase can be calculated as follows:
Interpretation: In 1996, the rate of natural increase in Poland was 0.1%
2.4.1. Total Population Growth Rate

It is the rate at which a population is increasing (or decreasing) in a given year due to natural
increase and net migration expressed as a percentage of the base population.
Net Migration: is the difference between the numbers of persons entering a geographic area
(Immigrants) and those leaving the area (emigrants).
Example 1: If the Births, deaths, and net migration of Poland in 1996 are given as 429000,
386000 and -13111 respectively, what will be the population growth rate? It can be calculated as
follows:
Interpretation: The annual growth rate in Poland was 0.07 %
Example 2- Suppose we had a population of 100,000 individuals. Suppose in one year there
were 1000 births, and 500 deaths. What percentage of the population were births?
1000/100,000 = 0.01, or in percentage terms, this is 1% of the population.
What percentage of the population were deaths?
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500/100,000 = 0.005, or in percentage terms, this is 0.5% of the population.
Assume immigration equals emigration. If so, then they cancel out of our population equation.
Natural Increase= Births – Deaths= 1000-500=500
Net Migration = IM-OM= 0
Interpretation: This population would be growing by 0.5% this first year. That means that after
one year, there will be 500 more individuals than the previous year. So, after one year, the
population would be 100,500 individuals.
The projections of the 2017 Revision indicate that there is a 95 per cent probability that the
global population will be between 8.4 and 8.7 billion in 2030, between 9.4 and 10.2 billion in
2050 and between 9.6 and 13.2 billion in 2100.
Future growth will be influenced not only by future levels of fertility, mortality, and migration
but also by the current age distribution of the world’s population. Thanks to “population
momentum”, a relatively youthful age distribution promotes a more rapid pace of population
growth, whereas a relatively older age distribution contributes to a slower rate of growth or even
population decline. The magnitude of population growth or decline attributable to this
momentum can be found by projecting the population forward assuming that: (a) mortality
remains constant, (b) fertility instantly reaches the replacement level, and (c) the population is
closed to migration. To illustrate the importance of population momentum, a new "Momentum"
variant was included in projections of the 2017 Revision.
2.4.2. Doubling time of a population

The doubling time of a population is the number of years it would take for a population to double
in size if the present rate of growth remained unchanged. Its purpose has been to emphasize how
quickly populations can grow, doubling their numbers geometrically.
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To calculate doubling time, divide the number 70 (actually 69.3 for better accuracy) by the
population growth rate expressed in percent. Thus, the larger the rate of growth (r) of a country,
the faster the doubling time.
For example, a country with a population growth rate of one percent would double its population
in about 70 years; at 2% in 35 years; at 3% in 23years.
Example 1: If the rate of population growth of a country is 0.08%, what will be its doubling
time? It is calculated as follows:
Interpretation: If the growth rate of 0.08 percent is continued unchanged, the country’s
population doubles in about 875 years.
Example 2: Given the 2017 statistics from the U.S. Census Bureau's International Data Base in
the following table, we can calculate the doubling time for a selection of countries:
Country 2017 Annual Growth Rate Doubling Time

Afghanistan 2.35% 31 years
China 0.42% 166 years
India 1.18% 59 years
United Kingdom 0.52% 134 years
United States 1.053 66 years
As of 2017, the annual growth rate for the entire world is 1.053 percent. That means the human
population on Earth will double from 7.4 billion in 66 years, or in 2083.
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However, as previously mentioned, doubling time is not a guarantee over time. In fact, the U.S
Census Bureau predicts that the growth rate will steadily decline and by 2049 it will only be at
0.469 percent. That is less than half of its 2017 rate and would make the 2049 doubling rate 149
years.
2.5. Characteristics and Composition of Population Structures

Dear learner, aside from the total size, it is important to understand at this stage the meaning of
population structure and population characteristics. Additionally, their implication in the future
population growth of the country is worth discussing.
Objectives:
Upon successful completion of the section, you will be able to:
 define population structure
 calculate sex-ratio
 compute dependency ratio
 describe population pyramid
2.5.1. Population structure
Population structure implies the age and sex structure of the population and population
characteristics include such characteristics as marital status, literacy and educational status, labor
force status, etc. The structure of a population is influenced or affected by births, deaths and
migration and their predisposing factors. Population characteristics, however, can and do
change through "social mobility," that is, through movements of individuals from one status to
another for example from "single" to "married" status and also through fertility, mortality and
migration.
Age-Sex composition of the world in 2017

In 2017, an estimated 50.4 per cent of the world’s population was male and 49.6 per cent female.
In 2017, 9 per cent of the global population was under age 5, 26 per cent was under age 15, 13
percent was aged 60 or over, and 2 per cent was aged 80 or over. This shows that there were
more than twice as many children under the age of 15 in the world as there are older persons
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aged 60 or above. In 2050, however, the number of persons aged 60 or above will be roughly
equal to the number of children under the age of 15, with about 2.1 billion in each group.
In Europe, 25 per cent of the population is already aged 60 years or over, and that proportion is
projected to reach 35 per cent in 2050 and 36 per cent in 2100. Populations in other regions are
also projected to age significantly over the next several decades. For Latin America and the
Caribbean, the population will go from having just 12 per cent of the total at ages 60 and above
in 2017 to having 25 per cent at these ages in 2050. Similarly, the population aged 60 or over in
Asia is expected to shift from being 12 per cent of the total in 2017 to 24 per cent in 2050, while
in Northern America it will move from 22 to 28 per cent, and in Oceania, from 17 to 23 per cent
over the same period.
Africa, which has the youngest age distribution of any region, is also projected to experience a
rapid ageing of its population over the coming decades, with the percentage of its population
aged 60 or over rising from 5 per cent in 2017 to around 9 per cent in 2050. 10. Compared to
2017, the number of persons aged 60 or above is expected to more than double by 2050 and
more than triple by 2100, rising from 962 million in 2017 to 2.1 billion in 2050 and 3.1 billion in
2100. For this age range, 65 per cent of the global increase between 2017 and 2050 will occur in
Asia, 14 per cent in Africa, 11 per cent in Latin America and the Caribbean, and the remaining
10 per cent in other areas.
Age and Sex Ratios:
Age and Sex are two important variables to consider in a population’s structure. Both affect
fertility, mortality and migration. The age – sex structure determines potential for future growth
of specific age groups, as well as the total population. Age structure is considered as the
demographic “engine” that drives (or retards) population growth.
Example: The male population of a country is 61,574,398 and the female population found to be
63,995,848. The sex ratio is calculated as follows:
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Interpretation: In 1995, there were 96 males per 100 females in the country.
Age Dependency Ratio

One may analyze the age distribution of a population in many ways. A popular measure of age
structure is the dependency ratio (DR). The DR is the ratio of the dependent-age population (both
young [persons 0–14 years old] and old [persons 65 years of age and older]) to the working age
population (persons 15–64 years old). The DR is usually multiplied by 100. The higher the ratio,
the more people each worker has to support; the lower the DR, the fewer the number of
dependents.
Demographers usually split the DR into the youth-dependency ratio (YDR or Youth-DR) and the
old-age dependency ratio (Old Age-DR), or aged-dependency ratio (ADR or Aged-DR); both
have the same denominator, namely, the population 15–64. The numerator of the Youth-DR is
the population 0–14 and the numerator of the Old Age-DR is the population 65+. The Youth-DR
plus the Old-Age DR equals the DR.
Example 1: New Zealand, a developed country, has 23% of its population less than 15, and 12%
over 64. This makes 65% of the age between 15-64. Then the dependency ratio is calculated as:
DR= (23+12) /65*100
= 35/65*100 = 53.8
Interpretation: There are 53.8 dependent persons for every 100 working age population
Activity 2.5
1. Pakistan, which is a developing country, has 41% of its population less than 15, and 4%
over 65. What will be the dependency ratio of Pakistan?
2. Imagine that we have a population growing at a rate of 4% per year, which is a pretty high
rate of growth. By the Rule of 70, what will be the doubling time?
Dear learner, countries that have a high dependency ratio have more people who are not of
working age, and fewer who are working and paying taxes. The higher the number, the more
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people that needs looking after. In developing world, there are very young population (29% of
population is under 15 in LDCs; 35% excluding China) compared with 17% in HICs. Thus, there
is high youth dependency ratio in LDCs i.e. workforce must support twice as many children in
LDC than in HICs. However, old age dependency ratio is much higher in HICs (e.g., only 3% in
SSA). According to the UN, it is reported that the period between 2005 and 2050 will see a
doubling of the old-age dependency ratio (ADR).
Population Pyramid
A population pyramid is two ordinary histograms (bar graphs), representing the male and female
populations in, usually, 1- or 5-year age categories, placed on their sides and back to back. The
base of the pyramid, representing the size of each of the age/sex population groups, is presented
in either absolute numbers or in percentages.
It is a tool we can use to summarize and visualize a population’s structure quickly and easily.
The overall shape of the pyramid indicates the potential for future growth. A glance at a
population pyramid can tell a great deal about that population. One can easily see whether a
population is young or old.
By convention males are shown on the left and females on the right of the pyramid. Young
persons are represented at the bottom and the elderly at the top. The ratio or percentage of the
various age groups in a population determines the current reproductive status of the population
and indicate what may be expected in the future.
Population pyramids show pictorially (graphically) the effects of the three factors that influence
population. Populations of countries can differ markedly as a result of past and current patterns
of fertility, mortality, and migration.
Dear learner, the following four representations of population pyramid provide an overall
example of what a pyramid for different levels of population growth would look like:
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a. A pyramid with a Broad Base (Rapid Growth)
• This indicates a high percentage of young population. Rapid population growth. The low
survivorship and high natality/birth rate of human population in many developing
countries result in a pyramidal stable age - structure, in which most of the population is
young.
• Examples of country with this structure include Guatemala, Nigeria and Saudi Arabia
b. A Bell shaped Polygon (Slow Growth)
• This indicates a moderate proportion of young to old Population. Slow population
growth.
• Examples of the country with this structure include United States, Australia and Canada
c. A Rectangular Polygon (Zero Growth)
• In a more developed countries high survivorship and low birth produce populations with
an almost rectangular, stable age structure in which all age groups are equally abundant.
Zero population growth.
• Examples of country: Spain, Austria, and Greece
d. An Urn - shaped Figure/ Jug shaped (Negative Growth)

• This type of shape indicates a low percentage of young Population, which is characteristic
of a declining Population. Negative population growth.
• Examples of country: Germany, Bulgaria, Sweden

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Chapter Summary
In this chapter, we have discussed the concepts, the methods of measuring fertility and the
theories that explain fertility, mortality and migration. The first two variables are responsible to
populations size change by adding and subtracting members respectively.
Concepts related to fertility include Crude birth rate (CBR) which is defined as number of births
per 1000 population. General fertility rate (GFR) is the number of births per 1000 women. Age
specific Fertility rate (ASFR) is Number of births in specific age groups of women. Total fertility
rate (TFR) is the average number of children born per women in a population.
Different theories, which explain what determines fertility, have also been discussed. These
theories are conventionally grouped under three categories: biological theories, cultural theories
and economic theories. In the coming discussion, we will discuss some of the theories from each
category.
According to UN & WHO, death is the permanent disappearance of all evidence of life at any
time after live birth has taken place. Different measures of mortality like CDR, IMR, MMR and
CMR are discussed. An easily understood and interpreted method for quantifying mortality, the
crude death rate (CDR), is the number of deaths in a population in a given year per one thousand
members of the population. The Child Mortality rate (CMR) is the number of deaths of children
under age 5 per 1,000 live births in a given year. The maternal mortality ratio (MMR) is the
number of women who die as a result of complications of pregnancy or childbearing in a given
year per 100,000 live births. The factors that affect mortality and the theories of mortality like
Demographic Transition Theory and Epidemiological transition theory (ETT) are also presented.
The United Nations describes migration as the movement of a person or persons from one place
to another, involving a permanent change of address. Migration can be within a country or to
another. Temporary movements cannot be considered as migration. There are two main types of
migration, namely, within a country and between countries; the former is internal migration, and
the latter, international migration. There are also theories of these migrations.
80
Finally, we have discussed concepts like population growth rate and doubling Time.
Additionally, we have discussed the population structure and population characteristics. Finally,
the pictorial representation of age- sex structure is discussed using population pyramid.
Review Questions
Part I: Multiple Choices
1. Which one of the following measures of fertility rate refers to the number of births in the
population in the year per the total number of females in the midyear population who are in
the childbearing ages 15–49?
A. Crude Birth Rate D. Total Fertility Rate
B. General Fertility Rate E. Reproduction Rate
C. Age-Specific Birth Rate
2. Among the elements of population change, which one always result a decrease in the size of
country's population?
A. Fertility D. Migration
B. Fecundity E. C and D
C. Mortality
3. Assume a hypothetical country X has the unproductive age groups that account 2/5th of the
total population, what will be the dependency ratio of this country?
A. 76 B. 67 C. 40 D. 150 E. The dependency ratio cannot be calculated
4. Population pyramids shows all, except
A. Age composition of population D. Level of dependency
B. literacy level of the people E. None of the above
C. Sex composition of population
5. A high old-age dependency ratio suggests that high percentage of population is:
A. between 15 and 64 years old
B. 65 years or younger
C. under 14 years old
D. under 14 years old and over 65 years old
E. 65years or older
6. Identify the wrong statement about a rectangular bell- shaped population pyramid;
A. It represents population structure of developed countries
B. Indicates stable age structure in which all age groups are equally abundant
C. Indicates Zero population growth
D. Negative population growth.
7. Population characteristics which indicates Age, sex, occupation, religion, educational status,
geographical distribution, socio– economic status etc. can be considered as:
A. Population structure C. Population pressure
B. Population dynamics D. Population homogeneity
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E. A and B
8. Natural decrease of population implies to:

A. The increment of population number because of birth and in migration
B. The decrement of population number because of death and out migration
C. Increment of population because of high fertility than mortality
D. The decrement of population because of high mortality than fertility
E. It cannot exist in the real world
Part II: Matching:

Match column A with column B (2 pts. each)
A B
1. The neoclassical economic theory A. International migration is the natural result of

of international migration the globalization of the market economy
2. World systems theory of B. migration stems from the demands of the
migration economic structure of industrial societies
3. Dual labour market theory C. argues that migration decisions are made not
only by isolated individuals but also by larger
units
4. Migration network theory D. focuses on interpersonal ties that connect
migrants, former migrants, potential migrants,
and non-migrants
5. The new economic of migration is E. migration occurs on account of individual cost–
a theory of developed in recent year benefit decisions to maximize expected
incomes through international movement
F. national migration model that argues that long
distance discourages migration
G. Argues that income and job opportunities
provide a better explanation of in-migration
than they do for out-migration
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Part III- Fill in the Blank Space
1. The theoretical foundation of the ecological approach of internal migration is based on the
interdependence among ____________, _____________, ________________ and
_____________.
2. __________________is a tool that can be used to summarize and visualize a population’s
structure quickly and easily.

Write short Answers for the following questions.
1. What is the difference between “Rate” and “Ratio” in the calculation of Demographic
measurement (1pt.)?
______________________________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________________________
_____________________________________________________________________________
2. What is the difference between Age Specific fertility Rate and Total fertility rate?
______________________________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________________________
_____________________________________________________________________________
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MODULE TWO
INTRODUCTION
Dear learner, this module comprises the remaining three chapters of the course. The third chapter
of the course is dedicated to the classical and modern theories developed to explain the
relationship between population and development. It also includes the theories given to discuss
the interaction between population and Environment. The fourth chapter emphasizes on the
Population policy of developing and developed countries. It also incorporates case studies of
some countries with regard to population and development. The last chapter discusses the
population and development interaction in Ethiopia. This chapter includes the basic demographic
trends, population dividend, migration and population policy of Ethiopia.
Module objectives
At the end of this module, students will be able to:
 Understand the theories of population and development
 Know the theories about the relationship between population and environment
 Comprehend population policy
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 Realize the demographic dividend in Ethiopia.
CHAPTER THREE
THEORIES OF POPULATION AND DEVELOPMENT
INTRODUCTION
This chapter focuses on classical and modern theories which explain about the two way
relationship between population and Development. With regard to the effect of population on
development, there are theories that argue population has a negative effect on development who
are considered as pessimists whereas others , who are named as optimists, discuss that population
has a positive effect on development. There are also scholars who propose intermediate opinion.
Concerning the effects of development on population, the most commonly stated theory is the
Demographic Transition Theory (DTT). In general, various theories attempt to answer the
following basic questions:
 Will developing countries be capable of improving the levels of living for their people
with the current and anticipated levels of population growth? To what extent does rapid
population increase make it more difficult to provide essential social services, including
housing, transport, sanitation, and security?
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 How will the developing countries be able to cope with the vast increases in their labor
forces over the coming decades? Will employment opportunities be plentiful, or will
unemployment levels soar?
 Will world food supply and its distribution be sufficient not only to meet the anticipated
population increase in the coming decades but also to improve nutritional levels to the
point where all humans can have an adequate diet?
 Will developing countries be able to extend the coverage and improve the quality of their
health and educational systems so that everyone can have access to adequate health care
and a basic education?
 Is there a relationship between poverty and family size?
 Is the unstoppable pursuit of increasing affluence among the rich more detrimental to the
global environment and to rising living standards among the poor than the absolute
increase in their numbers?
Chapter Objectives:
At the end of this chapter, you will be able to:
 Understand the classical and modern theories developed to explain the relationship
between population and development.
 Discuss the Demographic Transition Theory.
 Know the theories about the relationship between Population and natural resources.
3.1. Classical Models of Population and Economies

This section discusses mainly about the classical theories of population and development. This
starts on the causes of the French revolution. Various explanations were given by scholars like
Condorcet, Godwin and Malthus. We will also discuss the Karl Marx and Boserupian Theory of
population and development.
Objectives:
After the successful completion of the Section, you will be able to
 Distinguish the various theories provided to the causes of French Revolution
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 Compare the Malthusian and Boserupian theories of Population
There are two schools of thought, one is that population growth will be kept under control
through development and, the other, that population growth can threaten developmental efforts.
Condorcet belonged to the first school and, in the typical manner of the enlightment of the 18th
century, believed in the role of self-regulating mechanisms based on rational behavior and
education which would lead to development and to happiness. This 18 th century idea of
happiness can nowadays be understood as the qualitative dimension of development. The
proponents of this optimistic view of human behavior and society have always stressed the role
of human ingenuity and ability to adapt, particularly in the face of challenge.
In practice, however, the Condorcet descendants branched into two schools: those who believed
that population growth did not result only in more mouths to feed, but also in more hands to
produce food, and, those who believed that development would be the best contraceptive pill
through reducing the need for children. In both cases, it led to inaction in the area of population
(discussed under the modern theories).
During the 18th century, proponents of social change, including a redistribution of wealth, clearly
sought an explanation. According to William Godwin and others, poverty was not ‘caused’ by
population growth, but by inequalities in the distribution of income and inadequacies of
technology.
Karl Marx, on the other hand, argued that people were producers as well as consumers, and were
able to create wealth. However, since it was their capitalist employers who derived most benefit
from that wealth their workers created by appropriating the surplus produce of their labor, the
poverty of the labor force was due to the inequality in the distribution of wealth rather than their
large families. To say that poverty was ‘caused’ by population growth rather missed the point
that the social and geographical distribution of wealth and poverty had more to do with the
nature and strength of the structures of the capitalist economy than with the size or rate of growth
of the population.
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What are the arguments of Malthus with regard to population growth and economic
development? (You can use the space provided below to write your answer)
______________________________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________________________
Dear learner, on the contrary what we have discussed above, the Reverend Thomas Malthus put
forward a theory of the relationship between population growth and economic development that
is influential today. Writing in his 1798 Essay on the Principle of Population and drawing on
the concept of diminishing returns, Malthus postulated a universal tendency for the population of
a country, unless checked by dwindling food supplies, to grow at a geometric rate, doubling
every 30 to 40 years. At the same time, because of diminishing returns to the fixed factor, land,
food supplies could expand only at a roughly arithmetic rate. In fact, as each member of the
population would have less land to work, his or her marginal contribution to food production
would actually start to decline. Because the growth in food supplies could not keep pace with the
growing population, per capita incomes (defined in an agrarian society simply as per capita food
production) would have a tendency to fall so low as to lead to a stable population existing barely
at or slightly above the subsistence level. Malthus, therefore, contended that the only way to
avoid this condition of chronic low levels of living or absolute poverty was for people to engage
in “moral restraint” and limit the number of their progeny. Hence we might regard Malthus,
indirectly and inadvertently, as the father of the modern birth control movement.
What is important here is to stress that the solution to the imbalance between the rates of growth
of food and of population was to be found in checking the growth of population rather than in
attempting to accelerate development. Population growth was the «guilty» element responsible
for the imbalance and, therefore, it was legitimate to intervene in order to promote its control.
Such interventions were the more justifiable since, in the absence of voluntary checks, one could
expect mortality increases to reestablish the broken balance. The result was that, although
population could increase and, because food production could do so too but at a slower pace, the
standard of living would tend to be always at the minimum subsistence level. This was due to the
mortality check bringing back the population to the number that could be fed at a given level of
88
agricultural productivity. The crucial factor generally neglected in Malthusian thought is
technical change. If there were no technical change, it would be correct to assume that marginal
returns to labor in agriculture would decline as the man--land ratio goes up.
Another very important dimension contained in the Malthusian theory was the idea of limits
which trigger checks when reached. The question of Limits has become the focus of many
discussions, particularly with the recent concern for the protection of the environment and the
awareness that resources are not always renewable. This adds an element of urgency which not
only sharpens the debate, but also results in promoting more radical interventions. Once again,
the idea of limits orients attention to the population factors the most important and easy one to
intervene with rather than with the promotion of development.
During the 19th century when population growth was rapid in most European countries, the
solution to the Malthusian trap was found in emigration and in colonization. Inside Europe, the
debate had shifted from the food-population balance to that of balance between nations and the
possibility of expansion with definitely nationalistic and military connotations.
In the end of the 20th century, there was a counter hypothesis to Malthus’s pessimistic account,
namely Ester Boserup’s (1981) thesis that densely settled populations provide the motivation and
resources necessary for technological breakthroughs. The pressures of growing populations have
probably stimulated large scale migration around the globe, the origins and spread of agriculture,
the shortening of the fallow, irrigation, and most other developments that we associate with
civilization in traditional preindustrial societies.
If Malthus and Boserup point to opposite predictions of the impact of population on the economy
of agrarian societies, then who is right? It seems that both are. There were probably many
traditional societies that suffered from overpopulation and a few that were able to “move to the
next level” as a result of population pressure. The few historical societies that did move to higher
levels of agricultural productivity were the ones that were able to expand their populations and
dominion, primarily through conquest, and laid the foundations of our modern world. Growth
89
and expansion did not necessarily mean better lives for the people in such societies. Boserup and
other researchers have noted that peasants and workers in more developed agrarian societies
probably worked longer hours, consumed fewer calories, were exposed to more infectious
diseases, and suffered from more despotic rulers that people in less developed societies that
practiced swidden agriculture and even hunting and gathering populations. Classical agrarian
empires have left architectural and cultural legacies that modern societies romanticize, but the
lives of their inhabitants were not ones that most of us would envy.
3.2. Modern Theories of Population and Economic Growth

While discussing the classical theories, it can be noted that the primary focus of Malthus and
Boserup was on premodern agrarian societies and with a time frame that spanned many decades
if not centuries. What relevance do these perspectives hold for contemporary developing
countries and for policy makers who are trying to weigh policies in slowing population growth
(such as family planning programs) relative to other much needed investments in building roads,
schools, and health programs? There are contemporary advocates of neo Malthusian beliefs,
though contrary to Malthus, who believed nothing much could be done to lower high fertility,
many contemporary neo-Malthusians believe that public policies, even regressive and coercive
policies should be used to lower fertility as quickly as possible. In this section we will discuss
about neo-Malthusians and the limitations of their theory.
Objectives:
After successful completion of this section, you will be able to
 Critique Neo-Malthusian theory
 Elaborate the models proposed to measure the Impact of Demographic Factors on
Economic Development
 State the debate about population growth n 1980s and beyond
3.2.1. Neo-Malthusian
The contemporary prominence of the ideas of Malthus, now broadly identified as neo-
Malthusianism, came strongly into Development Studies thinking in the 1960s and 1970s, at a
period of rapid population growth globally, but especially in the Developing Countries.
Population growth was a constraint on development, and many of the poor countries were caught
in a Malthusian trap – too many people, not enough resources.
90
There is a broad range of neo Malthusians, ranging from the primarily polemical (such as the
Paul Ehrlich of The Population Bomb) to demographers (Davis 1967) who believe the current
world population is unsustainable. In 1969, Paul Ehrlich's The Population Bomb was published
and clearly represented the suffering created by rapid population growth. In a number of
publications the demographic and nuclear threats to humanity were often highlighted together
and the terminology used was dramatic. Projections, if not predictions of hundreds of millions of
deaths, were made sometimes accompanied by specific scenarios such as a starving China
invading the Soviet Union by the late seventies. The population of China was just over 800
million in 1970, projected to reach 1 billion by 1980. Would there be a crash before that date?
China is now over 1.2 billion ... The purpose is not to ridicule such projections, but to underline
the impact of such debates.
The other influential strand in the neo-Malthusian argument at that time was associated with the
Club of Rome and its Limits to Growth (1972). In a series of alarmist simulations of current
global resource depletion and increasing pollution, this largely European-based group predicted a
serious overburdening of the global system by the year 2000, to the extent that economic
development would be thrown sharply into reverse. Globally, population growth and increasing
consumption of physical resources with polluting technologies seemed in the 1970s to be no
longer sustainable.
It is a fact that, through dramatization, the population-development debate spills out of the
academic and decision makers circles to be presented to the general public, in order to stimulate
an awareness of the importance of the issues for the entire future of the plan. Therefore, citizens
in developed countries needed to be made aware of the problems and consequently, encourage
their countries to provide assistance to developing countries wishing to reduce their rate of
population growth.
Measuring the Impact of Demographic Factors on Economic Development

A small group of researchers, mostly economists and economic demographers have made serious
efforts to measure or simulate the impact of demographic factors on economic development.
91
These results have been mixed, and there is not a consensus of views among experts or policy
makers.
The most primitive models simply posit a horse race between economic growth and population
growth. If population growth is about 2 percent per year (very common in many developing
countries in the post World War II era), then per-capita income will not rise (and may fall) unless
the economy grows at a faster rate. Although population growth may be a drag on rising living
standards, many developing counties in East Asia were able to make rapid progress over the last
few decades by having economic growth rates of 6 to 8 percent per annum. The cross-sectional
correlation between population growth and economic growth is close to zero (Kuznets 1967, Lee
1983b, National Academy of Sciences 1986).
The more sophisticated model of the relationship between population and economic growth
focuses on the impact of age structure on savings. The most important research exemplar in this
tradition was the 1958 book Population Growth and Economic Development in Low Income
Countries by Ansley Coale and Edgar Hoover. High levels of fertility create a very youthful age
structure with a high ratio of children to working age adults. Coale and Hoover coined the term
“dependency ratio” to characterize this aspect of the age structure. If fertility were to be
reduced, the change in the dependency ratio would allow for a substantial diversion of economic
resources from the care and maintenance of children to productive economic investment. The
greater economic savings would occur at the household level as families with fewer children
could afford to invest in more education and at the societal level with more state revenues
becoming more available for investment in productive capital (infrastructure, factories, and
research). The empirical evidence in support of Coale and Hoover were formal models or
simulations that made assumptions about how different scenarios for declining fertility in India
and Mexico lead to greater savings and higher economic growth. According to the assumptions,
declining fertility would lead to more rapid economic growth.
The primary flaw in the dependency ratio thesis is the assumption that the proportional
reduction in consumption with fewer children will be invested productively. It is quite possible
92
that parents with three children instead of six children will simply change their consumption
patterns rather than save and invest the funds that were not spent on the three additional children.
The distinction between consumption and investment is fuzzy at the household level because
many poor parents may consider additional children to be an investment. At the societal level,
any reduction in aggregate expenditures necessary to maintain a youthful population could
simply be diverted to the military budget or extravagant state expenditures rather than making
investments in roads, irrigation facilities, and higher quality education. The dependency ratio
thesis also failed to gather empirical support from research conducted in the 1970s and 1980s
that examined the relationship between family size and household savings and between national
fertility levels and national savings rates.
The debate in 1980s and beyond

The 1980s saw the emergence of a position that is referred to as ‘revisionism’, to stress the fact
that most analysts do not subscribe to either population pessimism or population optimism:
instances of important ‘revisionist’ documents are the National Research Council 1986 report
and the World Bank 1984 report. The 1986 National Academy of Sciences report stated that
“On balance, we reach the qualitative conclusion that slower population growth would be
beneficial to the economic development of most developing countries” (National Academy of
Sciences 1986:90). This is a very weak and qualified observation that led to a reduction in the
political and policy priority on lowering population growth in order to boost economic growth
in developing counties. The famous 1994 Cairo Population and Development Conference
emphasized the priority of women’s reproductive health and gender equality as the most
important policy goals, not lowering world population growth.
In the 1990s, there has been a shift back to the orthodox position that population growth has a
negative impact on economic growth. This is exemplified by the 2001 collection of essays and
empirical analyses in Population Matters. In their chapter in this volume Kelley and Schmidt
(2001: 92) offer their assessment that changes in fertility and mortality from 1960 to 1995 have
accounted for about 21 percent of the rise of approximately 1.5 percent per capita annual output
93
for this period. This more positive interpretation of the significance of the salience of
demography has been buttressed by several studies, which conclude that the East Asian
economic miracle has been due in large part to the rapid growth of the labor force (relative to the
dependent population), which was caused by the rapid demographic transitions in these
countries.
These frequent oscillations in the prevailing scientific wisdom of the impact of demographic
factors on economic development reflect the complexity of the problem as well as the larger
debate over the causes of economic growth. Population growth creates more mouths to feed, but
also more workers to produce. Larger populations, when weighed relative to fixed resources and
capital, lead to lower per-capita welfare, but larger populations also create more demand and
increased economies of scale. The negative and positive effects of population on the economy
could cancel each other out. Moreover, there are numerous feedback loops between demographic
variables and economic change. Households and firms may respond in anticipation of population
pressures (or increased economic demand). The standard cross sectional research design of much
empirical research may also be inadequate to capture historical processes in different times and
contexts. It is remarkable that there is any agreement among researchers on the complex
relationships between demographic factors and economic growth and development.
3.2.2. Boserupian
There are also a small number of scholars and policy advocates who assume, following
Boserup’s arguments, that large populations will stimulate technological change and
productivity. The most famous advocate of this position is the late Julian Simon, whose book;
The Ultimate Resource (1981) argued that each person was a potential source of ingenuity and
creativity. His position is diametrically opposed to that of Malthus. For him, people are
themselves resources, creators and managers of natural producers of resources, hands to work,
and this is at least as important as the Malthusian view of population, primarily as consumers,
mouths to feed. Simon’s view, developed in the 1970s and associated with neo-liberal, free-trade
economics, was developed from the perspectives of economic theory and from the point of view
of the United States with its historic and current dependence on immigrants and population
94
growth for its development (Simon 1992). He does not argue for no constraints on fertility – for
Simon, low population growth is preferable to high population growth.
However, annual growth rates of 2 per cent sustained over several years are normally too high.
Low population growth may be preferable to zero population growth. However, in one major
respect Simon shares a basic presumption with Malthus: that population growth is not merely a
consequence of economic change, but can also be one of its principal drivers. For Simon, the
force of the population variable is generally positive rather than negative. People are themselves
resources that constitute the basis for wealth creation. This is developed through education,
training and knowledge transfer, or with better health, that is, investing in people. People have
hands and minds to work. They are producers as well as consumers, and their role in production
is normally more critical than their role in consumption.
3.2.3. Criticisms of the Neo/Malthusian Model

Dear learner, what are the limitations of Neo/Malthusian model? (Write the some of the
limitations in the space provided below)
______________________________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________________________
Some of the limitations of the Malthusian and neo-Malthusian argument are presented in the
following subtopic.
In the 1950s, Leibenstein and Nelson wrote that developing countries were in danger of getting
caught in equilibrium at a low level of economic development. This low-level equilibrium is
known as the neo-Malthusian Trap. Unfortunately, it is based on a number of simplistic
assumptions and hypotheses that do not stand the test of empirical verification. We can criticize
the population trap on two major grounds.
First, the model ignores the enormous impact of technological progress in offsetting the growth-
inhibiting forces of rapid population increases. The history of modern economic growth has been
closely associated with rapid technological progress in the form of a continuous series of
scientific, technological, and social inventions and innovations. Increasing rather than decreasing
95
returns to scale have been a distinguishing feature of the modern growth epoch. While Malthus
was basically correct in assuming a limited supply of land, he did not—and in fairness could not
at that time— anticipate the manner in which technological progress could augment the
availability of land by raising its quality (its productivity) even though its quantity might remain
roughly the same. In terms of the population trap, rapid and continuing technological progress
can be represented by an upward shift of the income growth (total product) curve so that at all
levels of per capita income it is vertically higher than the population growth curve.
This is shown in the figure below. As a result, per capita income will continue to grow over time.
All countries, therefore, have the potential of escaping the Malthusian population trap.
Figure 3.1. How Technological and Social Progress allows Nations to avoid the Population Trap
The second basic criticism of the trap focuses on its assumption that national rates of population
increase are directly (positively) related to the level of national per capita income. According to
this assumption, at relatively low levels of per capita income, we should expect to find
population growth rates increasing with increasing per capita income. But research indicates that
there appears to be no clear correlation between population growth rates and levels of per
capita income.
96
As a result of modern medicine and public health programs, death rates have fallen rapidly and
have become less dependent on the level of per capita income. Moreover, birth rates seem to
show no rigid relationship with per capita income levels. Fertility rates vary widely for countries
with the same per capita income, especially below $1,000. It is not so much the aggregate level
of per capita income that matters for population growth but rather how that income is
distributed. It is the level of household income, not the level of per capita income, which seems
to matter most.
In sum, Malthusian and neo-Malthusian theories as applied to contemporary developing nations

have severely limited relevance for the following reasons:
 They do not take adequate account of the role and impact of technological progress.
 They are based on a hypothesis about a macro relationship between population growth and
levels of per capita income that does not stand up to empirical testing of the modern
period.
 They focus on the wrong variable, per capita income, as the principal determinant of
population growth rates. A much better and more valid approach to the question of
population and development centers on the microeconomics of family size decision
making in which individual, and not aggregate, levels of living become the principal
determinant of a family’s decision to have more or fewer children.
The consequences of High Fertility: Some conflicting Perspectives

Dear learner, so far, in this chapter, we have discussed the theories which argue for and against
population growth. In this section, an attempt is made to summarize some of the main arguments
for and against the idea that the consequences of rapid population growth lead to serious
development problems. It then considers whether some consensus can be reached so that specific
policy goals and objectives can be postulated.
Objectives
After a successful completion of this section, you will be able to:
 describe the issues raised by those who believe that population is not real problem
97
 list the negative consequences of high population growth, according to scholars who
consider population is real problem
 identify the three propositions that constitute the essential components of the intermediate
opinion
3.3.1. It is not a real Problem

On the part of people who assert that population growth is not a real problem, we can identify
three general lines of argument
a) The problem is not population growth but other issues.
b) Population growth is a false issue deliberately created by dominant rich country agencies
and institutions to keep developing countries in their dependent condition.
c) For many developing countries and regions, population growth is in fact desirable.
Dear learner, let us see these lines of argument one by one starting from those who argue that
population growth is not the real problem.
a) Other Issues
Many observers from both rich and poor nations argue that the real problem is not population
growth per se but one or all of the following four issues.
1. Underdevelopment. If correct strategies are pursued and lead to higher levels of living,
greater self-esteem, and expanded freedom, population will take care of itself. Eventually, it
will disappear as a problem, as it has in all of the present economically advanced nations.
According to this argument, underdevelopment is the real problem, and development should
be the only goal. With it will come economic progress and social mechanisms that will more
or less automatically regulate population growth and distribution. As long as people in
developing countries remain impoverished, uneducated, and unhealthy and the social safety
net remains weak, the large family will constitute the only real source of social security (i.e.,
parents will continue to be denied the freedom to choose a small family if they so desire).
Some proponents of the underdevelopment argument then conclude that birth control
programs will surely fail, as they have in the past, when there is no motivation on the part of
poor families to limit their size.
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2. World Resource Depletion and Environmental Destruction. Population can only be an
economic problem in relation to the availability and utilization of scarce natural and material
resources. The fact is that developed countries, with less than one-quarter of the world’s
population, consume almost 80% of the world’s resources. In terms of the depletion of the
world’s limited resources, therefore, the addition of another child in the developed countries
is as significant as the birth of many times as many additional children in the underdeveloped
countries. According to this argument, developed nations should curtail their excessively
high consumption standards instead of asking less developed nations to restrict their
population growth. The latter’s high fertility is really due to their low levels of living, which
are in turn largely the result of the overconsumption of the world’s scarce resources by rich
nations. This combination of rising affluence and extravagant consumption habits in rich
countries and among rich people in poor countries, and not population growth, should be the
major world concern.
3. Population Distribution. According to this third argument, it is not the number of people
per se that is causing population problems but their distribution in space. Many regions of the
world (e.g., parts of sub-Saharan Africa) and many regions within countries (e.g., the
northeastern and Amazon regions of Brazil) are viewed as underpopulated in terms of
available or potential resources. Others simply have too many people concentrated in too
small an area (e.g., central Java or most urban concentrations). Governments should therefore
strive not to moderate the rate of population growth but rather to bring about a more natural
spatial distribution of the population in terms of available land and other productive
resources.
4. Subordination of Women. Perhaps most important, as noted previously, women often bear
the disproportionate burdens of poverty, poor education, and limited social mobility. In many
cases, their inferior roles, low status, and restricted access to birth control are manifested in
their high fertility. According to this argument, population growth is a natural outcome of
women’s lack of economic opportunity. If women’s health, education, and economic well-
being are improved along with their role and status in both the family and the community,
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this empowerment of women will inevitably lead to smaller families and lower population
growth.
b) It is deliberately contrived false Issue

The second main line of argument denying the significance of population growth as a major
development problem is closely allied to the neocolonial dependence theory of
underdevelopment. Basically, it is argued that the over-concern in the rich nations with the
population growth of poor nations is really an attempt by the former to hold down the
development of the latter in order to maintain an international status quo that is favorable to the
rich nations’ self-interests. Rich nations are pressuring poor nations to adopt aggressive
population control programs even though they themselves went through a period of sizable
population increase that accelerated their own development processes. A radical neo-Marxist
version of this argument views population control efforts by rich countries and their allied
international agencies as racist or genocidal attempts to reduce the relative or absolute size of the
poor, largely nonwhite populations of the world who may someday pose a serious threat to the
welfare of the rich, predominantly white societies. Worldwide birth control campaigns are seen
as manifestations of the fears of the developed world in the face of a possible radical challenge to
the international order by the people who are its first victims.
c) It is a desirable phenomenon
A more conventional economic argument is that of population growth as an essential ingredient
to stimulate economic development. Larger populations provide the needed consumer demand to
generate favorable economies of scale in production, to lower production costs, and to provide a
sufficient and low-cost labor supply to achieve higher output levels. Population “revisionist
economists of the neoclassical counterrevolution school argue, for example, that free markets
will always adjust to any scarcities created by population pressures.
Such scarcities will drive up prices and signal the need for new cost-saving production
technologies. In the end, free markets and human ingenuity (Julian Simon’s “genius” as the
“ultimate resource”) will solve any and all problems arising from population growth. This
revisionist viewpoint was clearly in contrast with the traditional “orthodox” argument that rapid
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population growth had serious economic consequences that, if left uncorrected, would slow
economic development.
At the other end of the political spectrum, it has been argued by some developing-world neo-
Marxist pronatalists that many rural regions in developing countries are in reality under-
populated in the sense that much unused but arable land could yield large increases in
agricultural output if only more people were available to cultivate it. Many regions of tropical
Africa and Latin America and even parts of Asia are said to be in this situation. With respect to
Africa, for example, some observers have noted that many regions had larger populations in the
remote past than after independence. Their rural depopulation resulted not only from the slave
trade but also from compulsory military service, confinement to reservations, and the forced-
labor policies of former colonial governments. For example, the sixteenth-century Kongo
kingdom is said to have had a population of approximately 2 million. But by the time of the
colonial conquest, which followed 300 years of slave trade, the population of the region had
fallen to less than one-third of that figure. After independence, parts of the Democratic Republic
of Congo (formerly known as the Belgian Congo and later as Zaire) had barely caught up to the
sixteenth-century numbers.
Other regions of western and eastern Africa provide similar examples—at least in the eyes of
advocates of rapid population growth in Africa. In terms of ratios of population to arable land
(land under cultivation, fallow land, pastures, and forests), Africa south of the Sahara is said by
these supporters of population expansion to have a total of 1.4 billion arable hectares. Land
actually being cultivated amounted to only a fraction of this potential. Thus only 12% of all
potential arable land is under cultivation, and this low rural population density is viewed as a
serious drawback to raising agricultural output. Similar arguments have been expounded with
regard to such Latin American countries as Brazil and Argentina.
Three other noneconomic arguments, each found to some degree in a wide range of developing
countries, complete the “population growth is desirable” viewpoint.
 First, many countries claim a need for population growth to protect currently under-
populated border regions against the expansionist intentions of neighboring nations.
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 Second, there are many ethnic, racial, and religious groups in less developed countries
whose attitudes favoring large family size have to be protected for both moral and
political reasons.
 Finally, military and political powers are often seen as dependent on a large and youthful
population.
Many of these arguments have certain realism about them—if not in fact, then at least in the
perceptions of vocal and influential individuals in both the developed and developing worlds.
The important point is that they represent a considerable range of opinions and viewpoints and
therefore need to be seriously weighed against the counterarguments of theorists who believe
that rapid population growth is indeed a real and important problem for underdeveloped
countries. Let us now look at some of these counterarguments.
3.3.2. It is a real Problem

Positions supporting the need to curtail population growth because of the negative economic,
social, and environmental consequences are typically based on one of the following three
arguments.
The Theoretical Argument: Population-Poverty Cycles and the Need for Family-Planning
Programs.
The population-poverty cycle theory is the main argument advanced by economists who hold
that too rapid population growth yields negative economic consequences and thus should be a
real concern for developing countries. Advocates start from the basic proposition that population
growth intensifies and exacerbates the economic, social, and psychological problems associated
with the condition of underdevelopment. Population growth is believed to retard the prospects
for a better life for the already born by reducing savings rates at the household and national
levels. It also severely draws down limited government revenues simply to provide the most
rudimentary economic, health, and social services to the additional people. This in turn further
reduces the prospects for any improvement in the levels of living of the existing generation and
helps transmit poverty to future generations of low-income families.
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Some empirical arguments: Seven Negative consequences of high population growth
Dear learner, what are the negative consequences of high population growth? (Use the space
provided to write some of the consequences)
______________________________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________________________
According to the latest empirical research, the potential negative consequences of population
growth for economic development can be divided into seven categories: its impact on economic
growth, poverty and inequality, education, health, food, the environment, and international
migration.
1. Economic Growth. Evidence shows that although it is not the culprit behind economic
stagnation, rapid population growth lowers per capita income growth in most developing
countries, especially those that are already poor, dependent on agriculture, and experiencing
pressures on land and natural resources.
2. Poverty and Inequality. Even though aggregate statistical correlations between measures of
poverty and population growth at the national level are often inconclusive, at the household
level the evidence is strong and compelling. The negative consequences of rapid population
growth fall most heavily on the poor because they are the ones who are made landless, suffer
first from cuts in government health and education programs, and bear the brunt of
environmental damage. Poor women once again bear the greatest burden of government
austerity programs, and another vicious circle ensues. To the extent that large families
perpetuate poverty, they also exacerbate inequality.
3. Education. Although the data are sometimes ambiguous on this point, it is generally agreed
that large family size and low incomes restrict the opportunities of parents to educate all their
children. At the national level, rapid population growth causes educational expenditures to be
spread more thinly, lowering quality for the sake of quantity. This in turn feeds back on
economic growth because the stock of human capital is reduced by rapid population growth.
4. Health. High fertility harms the health of mothers and children. It increases the health risks
of pregnancy, and closely spaced births have been shown to reduce birth weight and increase
child mortality rates.
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5. Food. Feeding the world’s population is made more difficult by rapid population growth—a
large fraction of developing country food requirements are the result of population increases.
New technologies of production must be introduced more rapidly, as the best lands have
already been cultivated. International food relief programs become more widespread.
6. Environment. Rapid population growth contributes to environmental degradation in the

form of forest encroachment, deforestation, fuel wood depletion, soil erosion, declining fish
and animal stocks, inadequate and unsafe water, air pollution, and urban congestion.
(discussed further in the next section of this chapter)
7. International Migration. Many observers consider the increase in international migration,

both legal and illegal, to be one of the major consequences of developing countries’
population growth. Though many factors spur migration, an excess of job seekers (caused by
rapid population growth) over job opportunities is surely one of them. However, unlike the
first six consequences listed here, some of the economic and social costs of international
migration fall on recipient countries, increasingly in the developed world. It is not surprising,
therefore, that this issue has recently taken on political importance in North America and
Europe.
Do you think there is a middle ground or consensus opinion about the interaction between
Population and Development? If so, what is that? (Use the space provided to write your
answer)
______________________________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________________________
_____________________________________________________________________________
Yes. There is an intermediate argument about the relationship between population and
development. The next discussion will present this argument.
3.3.3. A Consensus/Intermediate Opinion

In spite of what may appear to be seriously conflicting arguments about the positive and negative
consequences of population growth, a common ground has emerged on which many people on
both sides of the debate can agree. This position is best characterized by Robert Cassen in
Population Policy: A New Consensus:
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After decades of controversy over the issue of population policy, there is a new international
consensus among and between industrial and developing countries that individuals, countries,
and the world at large would be better off if population were to grow more slowly. The
consequences of rapid population growth should be neither exaggerated nor minimized. Some
past expressions of alarm have been counterproductive, alienating the very audiences they were
intended to persuade; at the same time, claims that population growth was not all that important
have had the effect of diminishing a proper concern for the subject
The following three propositions constitute the essential components of this intermediate or
consensus opinion.
 Population growth is not the primary cause of low levels of living, extreme inequalities, or
the limited freedom of choice that characterize much of the developing world. The
fundamental causes of these problems must be sought, rather, in the plight of poor families,
especially women, and the failure of other aspects of domestic and international development
policy.
 The problem of population is not simply one of numbers but involves the quality of life and
material well-being. Thus developing country population size must be viewed in conjunction
with developed-country affluence in relation to the quantity, distribution, and utilization of
world resources, not just in relation to developing countries’ indigenous resources.
 Rapid population growth does serve to intensify problems of underdevelopment and make
prospects for development that much more remote. As noted, the momentum of growth
means that, barring catastrophe, the population of developing countries will increase
dramatically over the coming decades, no matter what fertility control measures are adopted
now. It follows that high population growth rates, though not the principal cause of
underdevelopment, are nevertheless important contributing factors in specific countries and
regions of the world.
3.4. Theories of Population Change and the Environment

In this section, we will specifically discuss briefly the most common theories of population
change and environment. Four theories are included namely Classical, Neo-classical,
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dependency and proximate determinists.
Objectives:
 Compare contrast the theories of population change and environment.
 Explain the policy options provided by the theories
3.4.1. Classical Economists or Natural Scientists,
• Classical economists argue that
• High population growth is the independent factor causing environmental degradation.
• Sustainable output cannot keep up with rapid population growth
• As an increasing population puts pressure on fixed available resources to maintain or
increase the population's standard of living, environmental degradation occurs as
resources are depleted.
• Each individual has a negative impact on the environment by using up fixed resource
• If the population exceeds the carrying capacity of the Earth, then death rates will
increase to bring the population down to a sustainable level.
• Environmental degradation is one of the symptoms of the growing pressure population
is putting on the ecosystem.
Policy:
• Classical economists and natural scientists advocate fertility reduction as the key to
preventing environmental destruction and to improving living standards. Fertility reduction is
necessary to keep the human population within the carrying capacity limits of the Earth.
Some authors also advocate a more even spatial distribution of people.
3.4.2. Neoclassical economists
According to classical economists:
• high population growth is a neutral factor; no intrinsic effect on the environment
• The effect depends on whether free market policies are operative.
• In an efficient market, population growth can serve to induce innovation and the
development of advanced technologies.
• An economy full of distortions, high population growth can exacerbate the effects of
these distortions.
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Under the neoclassical economic framework, land degradation can be the result of several
processes.
1. It may be a short-run response to population growth, during which period people devise
new, more efficient ways of using the resource.
2. Degradation can occur when markets are not working efficiently. For example, many
land resources are commonly owned, such as public lands, making it difficult for them
to be included in the market. People's use of these resources is free to the individual,
although there may be a social cost to utilization. There are no built-in incentives for
individuals to conserve the resource as their neighbors may use it up instead.
3. Land degradation can be the result of efficient depletion of land resources for
production. Neoclassical economists postulate that some land degradation is acceptable
as long as the market offers alternatives to these resources for the future.
Policy:
Neoclassical economists argue that the market is the best vehicle for pricing and allocating
natural resources. Policies should be oriented toward getting the prices right by removing
constraints to the efficient working of the market. Such policies should be oriented towards
making people pay the full cost of using a common resource, better defining common property
rights, reducing subsidies that encourage overexploitation of a resource, etc.
Government allocation of resources is seen as inefficient and thus inappropriate policy.

However, government intervention can help promote research and development for natural
resource substitutes. Government-supported research if planned well could address the short-run
effect of land degradation resulting from the lag time between a perceived need for increased use
of a resource and development of the innovation required to meet this need.
Neoclassical economists would not advocate population policies to fundamentally address land
degradation. However, it is acknowledged by some that fertility reduction can buy time while
resource substitutes are found or market or institutional inefficiencies are addressed.
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3.4.3. Dependency theorists
According to dependency theorists:
• High population growth is a symptom of a deeper problem, poverty.
• Environmental degradation and high population growth are linked.
• Land degradation occurs as poor farmers try to earn a living on marginal lands with few
resources and inappropriate technology. These farmers are denied access to resources,
technology, and high potential land because of distortions in the structure of society,
particularly unequal land distribution, landowner-tenant relation of society, particularly
unequal land distribution, landowner-tenant relationships, limited access to credit, and
biases in technology against the peasant
Policy:
The solution to land degradation is poverty alleviation through economic development. With a
more equitable distribution of resources and a restructuring of distorted social relations, poverty
can be eliminated. With capital and technology, there are no constraints (physical, biological, or
technical) to land productivity. Equitably distributed resources can be used efficiently to provide
adequately for the world's population without destroying the resource
3.4.4. Proximate determinists
• Under the theory of population change acting as an intermediate variable, land degradation is
ultimately the result of a multitude of factors.
 They argue that unequal distribution of resources maintained by distorted political and
economic relations as a proximate determinant.
• Population growth can aggravate the situation by acting through the ultimate causes. If
the ultimate causes were not operating, then population growth would make little
difference. For example, if all polluting technologies were made clean, the number of
users would not affect the environment. However, given that the ultimate causes have not
been corrected, population growth exacerbates the problem. A polluting technology used
by many people will create more degradation than if used by a few people.
• The degree to which these causes, such as distortionary policies and polluting
technologies, damage the environment is intensified by the number of people
• Rapid population growth serves to intensify the effects on the environment of the root
causes.
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• These causes vary from region to region and include: Poverty, warfare, polluting
technologies, distortionary policies, and developed countries’ demand for resources.
• Land degradation is ultimately the result of a multitude of factors.
• E.g. in Java, Lack of employment opportunities has forced people to cultivate fragile
lands.
Policy:
Because population growth is not the fundamental cause of environmental degradation,
population policy will only buy time while measures to attack the root causes are implemented.
Population policy alone will not help the environment, unless other measures are taken.
3.5. Demographic Transitions and Demographic Dividend

Dear learner, in the previous sections, we have examined how population change can affect
development; this section now explores the other side of the reflexive relationship between
population and development – how and why populations change in response to patterns and
processes of development. In which respects and to what extent has ‘development’ historically
been a principal driver of population change, and to what extent is contemporary population
change being driven by economic and social trends and processes?. Moreover, the change in
population in age structure, which is driven by the demographic transition, can also be a window
of opportunity. This is also discussed in the second part of this section.
Objectives:
After successful completion of the section, you will be able to:
 discuss the concept of demographic transition, elaborated as one of the main theories and
models used in population analysis
 describe the four stages of the Demographic Transition Model (DTM), and the interplay
of mortality and fertility change over time
 explain how demographic dividend becomes a window of opportunity
3.5.1. Demographic Transition Theory
Demographic transition refers to a shift in reproductive behavior from a state of high birth and
death rates to a state of low birth and death rates. It is a transformation process that started in
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Britain and France at the beginning of the eighteenth century. The process then spread to the rest
of Europe and the territories of European settlement, and then to the other regions of the world.
This transition takes place because of advances in agricultural technology and medical science or
improvement in hygiene environment, all of which result in corresponding declines in the
mortality rate.
DTT was first developed by Warren S. Thompson (1929) and Frank W. Notestein (1945). The
theory proposes four stages of mortality and fertility change that occur in the process of societal
modernization.
The first stage is the pre-transitional or pre-industrialization stage. It is also known us low
stationary or high fluctuating stage. It lasted for thousands of years when the world was
characterized by high birth and death rates and stable population growth. It shows high rates of
fluctuating mortality and high fertility. The relative instability of the mortality rates means that
during this stage, there were some periods of natural increase and some of natural decrease, but
that over the longer period, there was very little change in population size. Because of its high
birth rates, it is also referred to as the stage of high growth potential because of the great
potential for population growth if mortality were ever to fall.
During this stage the so-called crude birth rate -- the annual number of births per 1,000
inhabitants -- was around 35 per 1,000, the crude death rate -- the annual number of deaths per
1,000 inhabitants -- was around 25 to 30 per 1,000. The net excess of births over deaths caused a
slow increase of population.
The pre-transitional stage was followed by the first transitional stage (shown in Figure as Stage
2). For numerous reasons, mortality began to decline in many countries of the world. With the
onset of industrialization and modernization, many societies transitioned to lower death rates,
especially lower infant and maternal mortality, but maintained high birth rates; rapid population
growth was the result. It would take another generation or so before fertility would begin to fall.
Thus, during Stage2, population growth was intense.
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In the nineteenth century the death rate of countries, principally as a result of improved nutrition,
increases in the overall standard of living and improved hygienic circumstances. As the birth rate
did not decline along with the death rate, the excess of births over deaths increased. Population
growth in Europe accelerated to the hitherto unknown level of 1 per cent per year.
The next stage (Stage 3) was characterized by decreasing population growth due to lower birth
and death rates; it is during this period that fertility begins to decline. Birth rates started to
decline, under the combined influence of urbanization, modernization and improving standards
of living. In the twentieth century a new equilibrium was reached between low death rates and
low birth rates.
In the final stage (Stage4), called incipient decline or low stationary, both fertility and mortality
are very low. In Stage 4, populations grow only when there are increases in fertility, such as in
the baby boom in the United States after World War II. During this stage, however, there are
slight fluctuations in fertility; thus, both natural increase and decrease will occur owing to these
fluctuations. The term incipient is used because it is not really possible to determine how low
fertility will go. In recent years, fertility has fallen so low in many European countries and in
Japan that the number of deaths exceeds the number of births. This suggests, perhaps, that there
could well be yet another stage, Stage 5, one of population decline. Where that might lead us is
too early to tell.
The demographic transition in most less-developed countries is not as yet complete. Most
African countries are early in Stage 3 of the transition, with falling death rates and high, though
falling, birth rates. This is also the case in much of the Middle East. Some countries in Latin
America are moving toward the stage of incipient decline but are not there yet. This is also true
of the United States. These variations in demographic transition between the more developed and
the less-developed countries are resulting in some interesting changes in population distribution.
Figure 3.2- The Demographic Transition Model portrays demographic change from High to Low
birth and death rate
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3.5.2. The second demographic transition model
The first or “classic” demographic transition refers to the historical declines in mortality and
fertility, as witnessed from the 18th century onward in several European populations and
continuing at present in most developing countries. The end point of the first demographic
transition (FDT) was supposed to be an older stationary population corresponding with
replacement fertility (i.e., just over two children on average), zero population growth, and life
expectancies higher than 70 y.
The second demographic transition (SDT) viewpoint, jointly formulated by Lesthaeghe and van
de Kaa in 1986, in contrast, sees no such equilibrium as the end point. Rather, they argue that
new developments from the 1970s onward can be expected to bring about sustained sub-
replacement fertility. The theory is based on an analysis of changes in marital attitudes and
fertility patterns among European countries. Nowadays, numerous demographers and social
scientists relate to this theory in their studies.
The major assumptions of the SDT can be divided into four groups: marriage, fertility,
contraception and lifestyle. The major symptoms of the SDT with respect to the ‘marriage’
variable are: postponement of marriage, an increase in the age of the first marriage, prevalence of
non-marital cohabitation (so called LAT, Living-Apart-Together unions), an increase in the
number of divorces and an increase in the number of couples with one child.
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The changes in ‘fertility’ field are as follows: declining fertility near-replacement level or
beneath replacement level which influences population growth, changing fertility pattern which
is expressed by two factors: first–the age of having the first child increased, second – maximum
fertility moved from one age group to another, increased the number of non-marital births which
is a result of increasing Living-Apart-Together unions.
The crucial evidence as to the area of ‘contraception’ is widespread accessibility to

contraception and birth control methods. It helps parents to plan the optimal moment for
conceiving a child and to decide on the number of children they wish to have.
The last group of symptoms of the SDT pertains to the changes of lifestyle that determine
mortality level; especially to women aged 18-60 and men aged 18-65 as well as a diet and
physical effort.
3.5.3. Demographic Dividend

What is demographic dividend? (You can use the space provided to write your answer).
______________________________________________________________________________
_____________________________________________________________________________
The demographic dividend is the accelerated economic growth hat may result from a rapid
decline in a country’s fertility and the subsequent change in the population age structure, mainly
when the share of the working-age population (15 to 64) is larger than the non-working-age
share of the population (14 and younger, and 65 and older).
Using examples primarily from East Asia such as South Korea, Bloom and Canning pioneered
the research area, showing that economic growth is associated with the relative proportion of
working population but not necessarily with the mortality or fertility level themselves. Studies
suggested the age structure change accounted for over 20 % of economic growth between the
late 1960s and the 1980s in East Asia.
As we discussed in the previous sub-section, early in the demographic transition, when a country
has experienced high levels of fertility and rapid population growth, there are more people in the
younger age group than the adult working-age group. A decline in fertility and fewer births each
year means that over time, there will be a decline in the number of children in relation to the
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working-age adults. This period when there are more workers than young dependents is a
window of opportunity for a country to facilitate accelerated economic growth. However, a
demographic dividend is not automatic for those countries with large young populations today.
Increased investments in family planning, education, and child survival are needed to advance
fertility decline and create the conditions for a demographic dividend.
The change in population age structure, a result of the demographic transition, is a necessary but
not sufficient condition to realize demographic dividend. Subsequent research as well as
empirical examples suggested that investment in health, including family planning, education,
and governance. At the same time, governments need to carry out reforms and infrastructure
investments that attract higher levels of investments, create jobs, ensure a better-educated labor
force, and accelerate economic growth.
Thailand exemplifies how a country, through the right actions, can capitalize on the window of
opportunity for a demographic dividend. Thailand made a series of investments across sectors to
ensure that people are healthy, educated, and equipped with skills and opportunities to contribute
to the country’s economic growth. Let us discuss the case of Thailand further.
Over the last 40 years, Thailand has emerged as an economic power in Southeast Asia. After a
period of rapid population growth, Thailand increased access to voluntary family planning in the
1970s. Population growth slowed as fertility declined from an average of 5.5 children per woman
in 1970 to 2.2 children per woman in 1990. With fewer births, Thailand was able to invest more
resources per person in health and social sectors that led to improved health outcomes and more
secondary school completion, as well as delayed marriage and delayed childbearing. By 2010,
the age structure of the population had evolved with fewer children and a larger productive adult
labor force. Today, Thailand has become an economic success story in Southeast Asia,
demonstrating how a decline in fertility combined with investments in health and education can
help a country transform their demographic prospects. Looking forward, these changes now
require new policies to expand opportunities for education and employment, increase work-
related migration, and promote savings and social security for the country’s older population.
Figure 3.3- The Population pyramid of Thailand in 1970 and 2010
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Chapter Summary
Dear learner, in this chapter, we have discussed about the classical and modern theories of
population and development. Generally, there are arguments forwarded from Malthusian and
Neo-Malthusian. Arguments against Malthus and the neo-Malthusians have come from the
political right (Simon and neo-liberal economists) as well as from the political left (socialists like
Godwin and Marx)
Further, we have discussed some of the main arguments for and against the idea that the
consequences of rapid population growth lead to serious development problems. We then
considered whether some consensus can be reached so that specific policy goals and objectives
can be postulated. The four most common theories of population change and environment like
Classical, Neo-classical, dependency and proximate determinists were also presented.
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We have also examined to what extent has ‘development’ historically been a principal driver of
population change and to what extent is contemporary population change being driven by
economic and social trends and processes. Moreover, the change in population in age structure,
which is driven by the demographic transition, can also be a window of opportunity. How and
when the change in the age structure become a window opportunity is also given emphasis in this
chapter.
Review Questions
Part I- True or False
Write True or False for the following Questions
1. In influencing the international family planning campaign, Democrats play a positive role
than Republicans.
2. Most Sub Saharan African are found in the pre-transition stage of population change.
3. Population policy interventions in industrialized countries have been more direct and explicit.
4. The first stage of DT is the pre-transitional or pre-industrialization stage.
Part I: Multiple Choices: Choose the best answer from the given alternatives
1. Which one of the following is not true about Demographic Transition Theory (DTT)?
a. A country in stage three has moderate population growth
b. In stage one of the DT, countries have low population growth
c. Most Sub Saharan Africa countries are found in stage one of the DT
d. None of the above
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2. Which one of the following is not categorized under pessimist concerning population
growth?
A. The club of Rome C. Lester Brown
B. Julian Simon D. Paul Ehrlich.
3. Identify the correct statement about population and development debate

A. According to Thomas Malthus, poverty had more to do with the nature and strength of
the structures of the capitalist economy than with the size or rate of growth of the
population.
B. Paul Ehrlich believed that the earth’s carrying capacity would quickly be exceeded,
resulting in widespread famine and population reductions
C. For Boserup, sustainable development and population growth are mutually
incompatible.
D. Julian Simon argued that too high fertility has no constraint on economic development.
Part III- Fill the Blank Space

1. _____________ is the accelerated economic growth that may result from a rapid decline in a
country’s fertility and the subsequent change in the population age structure.
2. _____________ refers to a shift in reproductive behavior from a state of high birth and death
rates to a state of low birth and death rates.
1. Briefly discuss the stages of the first demographic Transition.
CHAPTER FOUR
POPULATION POLICY
This chapter considers how populations and issues related to population growth have been and
can in the future be managed, either to minimize or at least reduce the negative effects of
population and population change on development, or else to explore how policies might be
formulated to maximize or at least enhance the positive aspects of population change on
development. In what ways may a government influence levels of fertility, mortality, and
migration?
Upon completion of this chapter, you will be able to:

 Know population policy
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 List the three population conferences and their major objectives
 Understand the difference between antinatalist and postnatalist population policies
 Give examples of population policies affecting fertility, mortality and migration
4.1. Definition
This section presents the definition of population policy. Moreover, it discusses the types of
population policies. Finally it elaborates the possible bases for the elaboration and
implementation of population policies.
Objectives:
After the successful completion of the section, you will be able to:
 Define population policy
 Discuss the types of population policy
 Illustrate the bases for the implementation of population policy
What is population policy? (You can use the space provided below to write your answer)
______________________________________________________________________________
_____________________________________________________________________________

A population policy is a deliberately constructed arrangement or program “through which
governments influence, directly or indirectly, demographic change”. These arrangements
typically are “legislative measures, administrative programs, and other governmental actions
intended to alter or modify existing population trends in the interest of national survival and
welfare”. The demographer John May has written that “population policies are designed to
regulate and, if possible, mitigate the problems [of too rapid growth or decline] by adjusting
population size and structure to the needs and aspirations of the people”.
Classification of Population Policies

Dear learner, what are the types of population policies? (You can use the space provided to
write you answer)
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______________________________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________________________
Population Policies can be classified as direct and indirect. Direct policies include those where
the aim is explicitly to affect the population characteristic, and are usually government designed
and implemented. Indirect policies are those that are the deliberate, but indirect, consequence of
policy with another explicit target.
Dear learner, in order to understand the difference between direct and indirect population
policies, let us see an example. Assume that a country aims at slowing its population growth. If
this country applies a direct policy then it may take measures like provision of free family
planning services, Increase taxes for each additional child, Restrict immigration and raising the
age of marriage. On the other hand, if it uses the indirect policy, the measures that will be taken
may include compulsory secondary education, restrict child labour, limit size of houses, raising
status of women and provision of old age security.
Population policies can also be explicit or implicit. An explicit population policy is one
associated with the stated intention of a national government to influence population events
where as an implicit policy is one that is unstated because of fear of political controversy. A
country can adopt an implicit or explicit population policy to tackle its population problem.
Goals of Population policies

Population policies are usually understood to represent strategies for governments or sometimes,
albeit less frequently, nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) to attain specific goals. The
procedures or programs are put into place to ensure that the goals of the policy are attained. As
already noted, a policy is generally intended to either reduce or increase population levels.
Policies are typically developed “in the interest of the greater good . . . in order to address
imbalances between demographic changes and other social, economic and political goals”. Many
countries in the world today have high rates of population growth. Many also have negative or
near-negative rates of growth, and many more have fertility rates below replacement levels. In
2008, for instance, more than seventy countries had total fertility rates below 2.1. Countries
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exhibiting demographic conditions of too-high or too-low growth sometimes develop policies
whose goals are to try to restore the demographic balance.
Whether the issue is severe or minor, demographic behavior is of interest to all governments. In
the United States, the onset of the baby boom resulted in major changes in governmental action
in many areas. And, of course, are some governments actually install stated government policies,
some of which are reviewed in this chapter. As we all know by now, there are only three ways to
change the size of a population, namely, through births, deaths, and migration. Therefore, any
policies aimed at restoring demographic balance must be oriented toward one or more of the
three demographic processes. But not all of the options are used as the bases for policies.
To illustrate, a policy with the goal of increasing mortality to lower population growth would be
unethical and not considered to be a viable means these days for solving an issue of population
growth. This is not to say that governments have not developed policies to explicitly raise the
mortality levels of groups or subgroups in their countries. One need only recall the explicit
policies in the not-too-distant past of the Nazi government in Germany and the Khmer Rouge
government in Cambodia to raise the mortality levels of subgroups in their populations.
Population policies dealing with mortality are usually intended to reduce, not to increase, its
levels. Manipulating mortality via reduction, however, is not as popular or prominent a strategy
of population policy. Most policies focus on manipulating fertility and/or migration. They
receive most of our attention in this chapter.
How do governments affect the demographic processes? Generally, they influence the
demographic behavior indirectly. Governments often find ways to persuade people to act
voluntarily in a “desired” manner. But oftentimes, mere legislation and propaganda are
insufficient to attain the intended goal. Then governments act directly, say, to either raise or
lower levels of fertility or to force people to move or not to move.
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The task of formulating a population policy is complicated by the fact that often there is no
consensus on the appropriate size of the population and/or its fertility or migration rates. There
may be some disagreement as to the magnitude of the problem (if, indeed, there is a problem) of
population growth or decline. More frequently, there evolves a “laissez-faire” attitude as
opposed to a “let’s do something about it now” or interventionist position. For example, today
in the United States, there is widespread disagreement as to whether levels of immigration
should be reduced or increased. Some groups argue for the former, others the latter.
Bases of Population Policies

Three possible bases for the elaboration and implementation of population policies are possible:
State-driven, market-driven, or culture-driven.
State-driven policies are those directly designed and delivered by the agencies of the state,
whether from the Ministry of Health in maternal and child health programs, or family planning
programs, or from a Ministry of Home Affairs in policies for immigration and emigration, or
from a Ministry of Economic Development on rural or urban development policies directly
affecting a planned redistribution of population. These are most likely to be designed and
effectively delivered where the state is strong, as in socialist countries, and heavily involved in
delivering development generally. The most prominent – perhaps the most extreme – case of
government-driven population policies is China (discussed in section 4.3).
In other cases, the state is generally unable to directly deliver or even to encourage other
agencies such as NGOs to deliver the fertility, mortality and distribution that it would see as
desirable or even optimal. In such cases policies may be less direct, but designed to encourage
demographic change through the range of development policies over which the state does
exercise some control, such as the school system or the taxation system. More generally the state
may have a preference for free market solutions to economic problems, including demographic
imbalances. Policies here will be indirect, but may achieve greater population change than direct
policies in many contexts.
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In yet other cases, it may be accepted, often reluctantly, that managing population change is
largely beyond the direct control of the state or the market, but lies in levels and patterns of
individual behavior and culture. Since cultural values affect reproductive behavior and
objectives in particular, governments may be reluctant to change cultural values even if they felt
they could, and for largely political reasons. Developing Countries generally have fiercely
nationalistic governments, and draw support from public encouragement of these national values.
In some countries, especially in East Asia, direct policies to reduce fertility through family
planning programs were consistent with a cultural desire for lower fertility, at a time of rising
incomes. In contrast, in strongly pronatalist societies in sub-Saharan Africa, governments
immediately after independence in the 1960s and into the 1980s were also strongly pronatalist.
Only since the mid-1980s did they begin to adopt formal population policies, primarily to reduce
the rate of population growth, but often at a political risk of being at odds with the wishes and
actual behavior of their populations, or of powerful social forces in these states, and, particularly,
the Roman Catholic Church in Africa and Latin America. Engineering and managing cultural
change inevitably requires long time horizons, and often political courage and leadership.
However, cultural change may be necessary if any population trends initiated though more direct
interventions in fertility and reproductive health policies are to be sustained into the longer term.
4.2. World Population Conferences

This section deals with the three world population conferences held in 1974, 1984 and 1994. The
major objectives of the conferences and their influence on population growth are discussed.
Objectives:
At the end of the lesson, students will be able to:
 Explain the main arguments of developing countries in the first international population
conference
 Discuss the positions of democrats and republicans on family planning
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Dear learner, what are the first three world population conferences (You can use the space
provided below to write your answer)
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____________________________________________________________________________
Starting in the 1970s, there was considerable debate in academic circles with many advocating
voluntary family planning. The position among the so-called birth controllers and many
population specialists was that inducing Third World women to practice contraception would
simultaneously improve these individuals’ social and economic situation and alleviate the
societal problems of their countries. Affluent countries such as the United States, along with
private foundations and other organizations, provided large amounts of financial assistance to the
population-control movement and the worldwide endeavor to limit population growth.
In 1965, President Lyndon Johnson established an Office of Population in the Department of

State and the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID). The goal of USAID was to
convince governments in developing countries to foster contraceptive usage among its citizens.
In many instances, this was a politically charged issue that ran counter to traditional pronatalist
cultural norms (those advocating increases in fertility). The USAID sent teams of demographers
and others to countries all over the world to illustrate visually to their leaders and officials the
impacts of continued rapid population growth.
The attempts by the United States to promote family planning overseas in countries not yet
“ready” for this message inevitably met with cries of imperialism. Officials in the host countries
asked why the United States was promoting family planning instead of addressing, according to
their way of thinking, more pressing needs like assistance in relieving the millions of people
suffering from malaria. In part to defuse this issue, the United States worked with the United
Nations (UN) to help create in 1969 the United Nations Fund for Population Activities
(UNFPA). UNFPA served as a major source of funds for population initiatives in developing
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countries. Three world population conferences were subsequently held in 1974, 1984, and 1994
and framed the story of international family planning that has unfolded since the 1970s.
The first World Population Conference

The first World Population Conference was held in Bucharest, Romania, in 1974. Organized by
members of the UN, it was an attempt to bring together government officials from around the
world and to illustrate for them the facts and consequences of rapid population growth. It was
expected by the developed nations in attendance that the rest of the world would recognize the
so-called population problem and join the growing movement to curb population growth. To the
surprise of many, there was no such endorsement. Rather, most developing nations stressed their
preoccupation with the importance of socioeconomic development, both in its own right and as a
catalyst for lowering fertility. They called for a “New Economic Order,” whose position was
encapsulated in the expression “Development is the best contraceptive.”
The Second World Population Conference

The second such conference was held in Mexico City in 1984. During the ten years since the first
conference, many developing countries had changed their opinions about population growth and
were now interested in assistance directed toward their fledgling family planning programs.
What is family planning? (You can use the space provided below to write your answer)
______________________________________________________________________________
_____________________________________________________________________________
A family planning program is a systematic effort to promote modern fertility control. African
countries, especially, were seeing the benefits of more widespread family planning programs, if
not for demographic reasons, then at least for the health of women and children. However, by
this time, the political atmosphere in the United States had changed dramatically.
The official U.S. delegation under the administration of President Ronald Reagan asserted that
“population is a neutral phenomenon” in the development process, and that excessive state
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control of the economy was more responsible for economic stagnation than population growth.
This unexpected U.S. position stunned the delegates. Instead of rallying the world community
behind population issues, the United States introduced to the world its controversial Mexico City
policy. The U.S. administration, over strong Congressional objection, decided to police the
actions of developing countries with respect to abortion services by refusing to fund the family
planning activities of local organizations that also provided abortion, even if abortion was legal
in that country and paid for by private funds.
We note here that one of the first acts of President Bill Clinton’s administration when he took
office in 1993 was to reverse this policy of President Reagan. But when the administration of
George W. Bush came into power in 2001, the Reagan policy was once again restored. With the
inauguration of Barack Obama in 2009, the Bush–Reagan policy was changed back to the policy
of the Clinton administration with respect to providing funds for family planning. When
President Obama reversed the Bush–Reagan policy on January 23, 2009, he remarked that “for
the past eight years [the Bush– Reagan restrictions] have undermined efforts to promote safe and
effective voluntary family planning in developing countries. For these reasons it is right for us to
rescind this policy and restore critical efforts to protect and empower women and promote global
economic development”.
The Third World Population Conference (1994)

The third International Conference on Population and Development (ICPD) was held in Cairo,
Egypt. This conference radically altered the international population movement. Its major
outcome was a new definition of population policy, giving prominence to reproductive health
and downplaying the demographic rationale for population policy. Two radically diverse groups,
feminists and neo-Malthusians, joined forces to create a new manifesto that included the
following stipulations:
1) population stabilization is a desirable, ultimate goal, although not one warranting the use
of compulsion;
2) national programs enhancing access to contraception are justified in terms of individual
human rights, not in terms of their development advantages for aggregate populations;
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and
3) The empowerment of women is a prerequisite for the enduring low fertility that
population stabilization requires.
The Cairo conference was considered to be very successful, mainly because it allowed
historically opposed and oppressed groups to identify a unified position. Later, however, many
officials and scholars working on population matters were surprised that, apparently, discussions
of aggregate demographic concerns were being seen as politically incorrect. Indeed, some argued
that “programs that are demographically-driven, and are intended to act directly on fertility, are
inherently abusive of women’s rights to choose the number and timing of their children”. Others
argued that there is nothing inherently abusive or intrusive about demographically driven
population policy. In sum, Cairo “stressed the importance of individual choices and the necessity
to further empower women”.
More recent international conferences have agreed largely with this preoccupation. It was the
main theme of follow-up meetings of the ICPD, “which included a meeting in The Netherlands
and a meeting of the U.N. General Assembly in 1999”.
Dear learner, why do you think that there was no world population conference in 2004. (You can
use the space provided to give your answer)
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_____________________________________________________________________________
After three conferences in 1974, 1984, and 1994, a conference was indeed planned for 2004. But
when the United States, under the administration of President George W. Bush, withdrew its
funding of the UNFPA, it was decided to simply incorporate the goals of earlier conferences for
the present and the immediate future.
4.3. Policies affecting Fertility, Mortality and Migration

Dear learner, in the previous section, it is most interesting to note that in all three of the world
population conferences discussed above, fertility mainly antinatalist policy was the only major
topic on the agenda. Recently, developed countries are adopting pronatalist policies. Reductions
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in mortality were also included in the policies of governments. Immigration has become an
important phenomenon in recent decades in many parts of the world. In this section, we turn
attention to actual policies affecting fertility behavior, whether direct or indirect, that is, whether
to raise or lower the level of fertility. Mortality and migration policies are also included.
Objectives:
 Distinguish the difference between antinatalist and pronatalist policies
 Discuss the trends of government Policies to influence the rate of population growth
 Point out countries who apply antinatalist and postnatalist policies
4.3.1. Anti-natalist policies

Define Anti-natalist population policy
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____________________________________________________________________________
Antinatalist population policy refers to the policy of a government, society, or social group to
slow population growth by attempting to limit the number of births. In this part of the chapter,
we examine a few antinatalist policies, both direct and indirect. The two basic approaches are
government-sponsored family planning programs and various non–family planning
approaches. Mexico is an example of a country in which the two approaches have been pursued
simultaneously. In the early 1970s, the Mexican government engaged in a historic reversal of its
pronatalist policies, embarking on an aggressive family planning initiative. Between the early
1970s and 2000, the TFR fell from 6.5 to 2.8. In 2008, the TFR in Mexico was 2.3, just slightly
above the replacement level.
There have been other family planning successes leading to dramatic reductions in population
growth. Bangladesh, despite its incredible poverty, finances a third of the costs of its very active
family planning program. Other countries with active family planning programs include
Colombia, the Dominican Republic, Egypt, El Salvador, India, Indonesia, Jamaica, Peru,
Tunisia, and Vietnam.
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We have been concentrating to this point on family planning efforts to reduce population growth.
But we must go “beyond family planning” to get a more complete picture of population policies
intended to reduce growth. Generally speaking, increased education for females and increased
labor-force participation contribute to lowering fertility, albeit, as noted earlier, indirectly. But
there are other less opaque methods that have been used to achieve this purpose. India provides a
good example.
India’s antinatalist policy

In the 1950s, India was the first country to introduce incentives to influence childbearing
behavior. They were targeted at three groups:
1) Acceptors, that is, those women and men complying with the government family
planning policy;
2) Providers, that is, physicians and other healthcare personnel; and
3) Promoters, that is, individuals in the community who influenced the acceptors to adopt
family planning. Payment was usually in the form of cash to the providers, and cash,
services, or gifts to the acceptors and promoters. For example, men received gifts such as
radios, traditional garments, and money for undergoing sterilization.
However, it should be noted that such incentives are sometimes linked to abuses of human rights.
For example, in the 1970s, India not only provided incentives to individuals but also penalized
local officials for not reaching assigned quotas. Problems arose when public officials allegedly
used force on low-status individuals to meet their quotas. This, in turn, created a backlash,
contributing to the defeat of Indira Gandhi’s government, as well as setbacks for family planning
in India.
China’s Antinatlaist Policy

China undoubtedly has one of the most stringent population policies in human history. Indeed,
one reason why China is such an interesting and intriguing country for demographers to study is
precisely its fertility policies. Another reason is that in China the political leaders are “able to
control the annual number of births with considerable precision.” An important point to make in
this regard is that family planning in a socialist country like China differs dramatically from
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family planning as we know it in the West. In China, “births are planned by the state to bring the
production of human beings in line with the production of material goods”. The numbers of
babies produced are heavily controlled by the country.
In the period between 1949, when Mao Zedong and the Chinese Communists assumed control of
the country and established the People’s Republic of China (PRC), and the early 1970s, China’s
fertility policy was characterized as “on-again-and-off-again.” During the early years of the PRC,
there was very little attention given to the size of the population. But when the 1953 census data
were made public, many leaders expressed anxiety about the size and growth trends of the
country. Accordingly, by the summer of 1956, a birth control campaign was underway.
In early 1962, China resumed its family planning program, mainly via the publication of
propaganda encouraging family size limitation. But this second campaign lasted only until the
beginning of the Great Proletarian Cultural Revolution in 1966, at which time all birth-control
efforts in the country were interrupted.
In 1971, China introduced its third family program, the so-called wan-xi- shao program, a
campaign stressing later marriages (wan), longer intervals between children (xi), and fewer
children (shao). However, the large numbers of children born during China’s own baby boom in
the early 1960s caused government leaders and officials in the middle to late 1970s to be
concerned about demographic momentum and the concomitant growth potential of this huge
cohort.
In 1979, the so-called One-Child Campaign was launched. Its principal goal was to eliminate
births above or equal to three per family, and to encourage families to have no more than one
child, especially those in the urban areas. In practice, because of the many exceptions to the
policy allowing some couples to have more than one child, China’s fertility policy is really best
defined as a one-and-a-half child policy (usually one in the cities and sometimes two in the
countryside).
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China’s fertility policy has been characterized by some as especially coercive. For instance,
noted that the policy follows a cycles-of-coercion model of family planning: The Chinese central
authorities enforce an unpopular birth-control policy by exerting the local authorities to coerce
the people and to force them to accept the program’s mandates.
The pressure continues until opposition becomes so strong that a relaxation of the policy occurs,
which itself leads to more new births than can be allowed, thus leading to another wave of
coercion. This causes the kinds of fluctuations one sees in China’s vacillating fertility rates,
especially in the 1980s and early 1990s.
An alternate view espouses a linear model in which over time, the mandates of an unpopular
policy are relaxed and the mechanisms for enforcing the regulations are weakened; more and
more couples, especially rural ones, are permitted to have more children. A linear model does not
necessarily assume that all of the political directives in China are top-to-bottom in direction, but
that cadres (the rough equivalent of civil servants) at the local level have considerable influence
in not only enforcing but also developing fertility plans and policies.
4.4.2. Pronatalist policies

What is pronatalist population policy? Give examples of countries that use this policy type. (You
can use the space provided below to write your answer)
_____________________________________________________________________________________
_____________________________________________________________________________________
Pronatalist policy is the policy of a government, society, or social group to increase population
growth by attempting to raise the number of births. The current situation in virtually all the
countries of the developed world is one with fertility rates well below the level needed to replace
the population. Such low rates over a long period of time have many consequences, not the least
of which is a dramatic aging of the population and, later, a reduction in the size of the
population. Thus, there is much concern about below-replacement fertility in the countries of the
developed world and in some other countries, for example, South Korea and Taiwan, to mention
only two. The concern is not solely about population decline but also about the aging of the
population as a result of the very low fertility. This kind of ramification of a below-replacement
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fertility rate in place for several decades will challenge social security and health-care systems
and may even hinder productivity and global competitiveness.
Development of pronatalist policies in such countries is difficult to promote. Today, family

policies are based on an equal-opportunities rationale and aim to help women combine
childrearing with employment. Different countries have developed different types of policies to
encourage increased fertility. For instance, in recent years, France has employed numerous
policies with two goals, namely, reconciling family life with work and reversing declining
fertility. To accomplish the first goal, France instituted generous child-care subsidies. For the
second goal, families have been rewarded for having at least three children.
Sweden, by contrast, reversed the fertility declines it experienced in the 1970s through a
different mix of policies, none of which had the specific objective of raising fertility. Its parental
work policies during the 1980s allowed many women to raise children while remaining in the
workforce. The mechanisms for doing so were flexible work schedules, quality child care, and
extensive parental leave on reasonable economic terms.
Other countries have implemented fertility policies involving financial remittances for each child
born, liberal parental-leave benefits, and guaranteed child care and schooling for children. One of
the most expansive and generous fertility policies has been enacted in Australia, where
remittances per child per year exceed US $3,000. Russia also has initiated an aggressive
pronatalist policy involving financial incentives, medals for “baby-making,” and an array of
other awards.
However, the effectiveness of these fertility incentives is hotly debated. Some argue that
incentives are beneficial in easing the financial burdens caused by additional children, making
families more willing to increase their childbearing. Others emphasize that any increases due to
these policies will be small. While financial resources may make it easier for families to pay for
the children they already want to have, they are unlikely to raise fertility to the level necessary to
stave off population decline.
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To be sure, even if successful, these are long-term goals that will take decades to come to
fruition. In the meantime, many countries with below-replacement fertility rates are faced with
another population-related dilemma: whether they should continue losing population or begin
accepting more immigrants. Some have suggested that declining populations and the resulting
dramatic imbalances in population age structure can be corrected through increases in migration.
Since many developing countries are still experiencing high birth rates and population growth,
immigration originating in these countries can supplement small working-age cohorts in other
countries. While international migration may be beneficial in the redistribution of national
populations, immigration policies encouraging migration from developing countries remain the
least favored policies of countries experiencing population declines. We focus on immigration
policy in a later section.
In sum, fertility policies vary across the world, and they have for decades. In some regions, birth
rates are high; in others, they are low. Between 1996 and 2015, the proportion of Governments in
more developed regions with policies to raise their rate of population growth increased from 23
per cent to 45 per cent. • During the same period, the proportion of Governments in less
developed regions with policies to lower their rate of population growth remained unchanged
(around 50 per cent). In general, both governmental and nongovernmental agencies have been
and are involved in attempting to restore some demographic balance in their respective societies.
4.4.3. Policies affecting Mortality

Some hold that mortality-related policies should not be considered direct population policies.
The reduction of mortality should be the goal of all governments, even those wishing to reduce
their rates of population growth. Thus, measures taken by governments that deal with mortality
may be viewed as indirect population policies as long as they have a demographic effect. For
example, most industrialized countries subsidize medical care. Often, medical clinics provide
free health care to the public. While these can be said to be examples of health policies, their
overall effect is to increase life expectancy. Let us look at some examples of how indirect
policies can affect mortality by causing either increases or decreases in the number of deaths.
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Mortality policies receiving the most attention are those supporting the development of medical
knowledge with the potential to expand life expectancy, as, for example, through the
development of new wonder drugs or the facilitation of organ transplants. Beginning in the
eighteenth century, there was considerable scientific work in this area of medical knowledge.
The work of scientists contributed to the reduction of mortality in Western Europe and
elsewhere: Before the Second World War, colonial powers as well as independent governments
in Latin American and Asia had enacted public health measures, launched sanitation and disease
vector control programs, and organized targeted campaigns to bring down high mortality levels,
notably in cities.
Government policies can directly contribute to lower mortality. Every developed country in the
world, with the exception of the United States, offers free or subsidized health care to all of its
citizens. This is reflected in comparative levels of life expectancy. Government policies aimed at
reducing the incidence of specific diseases are clearly related to mortality. In 1972, then-
President Richard Nixon declared a “War on Cancer,” and millions of dollars have been spent for
this purpose with much success. Thousands of lives are saved each year as a result of
government regulations requiring installation of safety features, such as seat belts in new
vehicles.
4.4.4. Policies affecting International Migration
What kinds of policies are used to affect international migration? (You can use the space provided
below to write your answer)
______________________________________________________________________________
_____________________________________________________________________________
Dear learner, throughout most of human history, people have been free to move about in search
of a better life. We noted that human populations began their migrations out of Africa around 50
thousand to 60 thousand years ago, first going to southern Asia, China, and Java and later to
Europe. There were certainly no legal hindrances then that made such moves difficult or
impossible.
To a considerable extent, however, such freedom of international movement has been

significantly restricted since late in the nineteenth century. Many countries have introduced laws
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that infringe on the freedom to engage in international migration. In some instances, people have
not been permitted to enter a country and, in other instances, people have not been permitted to
enter certain parts of a country.
At the same time, some governments have taken measures to encourage movement into some
areas and out of others. There have been instances of policies involving both nations and areas
within a nation. Policies regarding international migration are much more common and pervasive
than those pertaining to internal migration.
In the developed world today, there are three main types of national immigration regimes.
The first is the so-called traditional immigration regime. The United States, Canada, and
Australia are the three most important and sizable traditional immigration countries: “Founded
by European settlers, they have long experiences with immigration and [to this day] allow the
acquisition of citizenship through naturalization or birth within their territory”. For example, in
the United States in 2000, more than 98 percent of the U.S. population was immigrants or the
descendants of immigrants.
The numbers of people legally admitted into these three countries are categorized in terms of
family unification, economic needs of the country, and refugees. The United States admits
most of their immigrants under the family unification category, whereas Canada and Australia
admit most of their immigrants under the skilled worker category. These three countries used to
restrict immigrants on the basis of their national origins; persons from certain European countries
were usually preferred. But “all three countries ceased to discriminate on the basis of national
origin by the early 1970s”.
The second type of national immigration regime includes countries that mainly allow
immigrants to enter as guest workers. These are primarily “European countries that recruited
temporary labor (guest workers) or received substantial colonial migration during the post–
World War II economic expansions”. The immigrants came from Southern Europe, Eastern
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Europe, North Africa, Turkey, South Asia, and the West Indies, for the most part. The receiving
countries were mainly in Northern and Western Europe, including Germany, Great Britain,
France, and the Netherlands. These immigrations stopped in the early 1970s, but not many of the
guest workers ever returned to their home countries. Indeed, most of the workers brought
members of their families into their new host destinations. As a consequence, by the 1980s, most
of the Northern and Western European countries had very large immigrant and foreign born
populations, as well as second-generation immigrants, many of whom were not citizens of these
host countries. Today, many Gulf countries, for example, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates
(UAE), and Kuwait, among others, fall into this second category.
The third type of immigration regime is the group of Southern and Eastern European countries
“more likely to receive than to send immigrants”. The four countries most prominent in this
category are Greece, Spain, Portugal, and Italy. These countries serve as entry points for illegal
immigrants from other countries who are seeking to enter the European Union. As a
consequence, by 2000, there were more than 18.5 million foreigners living in countries of the
European Union, or about 7 percent of its population. When one adds in the children of these
immigrants, the foreign population becomes larger. As many as 12 million Muslims now reside
in the European Union. These countries have experienced in embracing multiculturalism. Their
difficulties may be compared with the less difficult and problematic experiences of the United
States, Canada, and Australia.
At the global level, in 2015, the majority of Governments (61 per cent) had a policy to maintain
their current level of documented immigration. Another 14 per cent of Governments had either
no official policy or did not seek to influence the level of immigration. Among the remaining
Governments, 13 per cent had a policy to lower the level of immigration while 12 per cent had a
policy to raise it.
Governments in more developed regions were more likely to have policies to raise immigration
(29 per cent) than lower it (8 per cent). In less developed regions, only 7 per cent of
Governments had policies to raise immigration, in contrast to 14 per cent that had policies to
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lower it. Worldwide, the proportion of Governments with policies to lower the level of
immigration has declined since the mid-1990s (from 40 per cent in 1996 to 13 per cent in 2015),
while the share of Governments with policies to raise the level of immigration has increased,
from just 4 per cent in 1996 to 12 per cent in 2015.
Governments have become increasingly selective about attracting highly skilled immigrants,
who may help complement country’s own domestic workforce qualifications. In 2015, policies to
raise immigration of highly skilled workers were more prevalent amongst Governments in more
developed regions (62 per cent) than in less developed regions (37 per cent).
Among 148 countries with available information on the rationale for immigration policy, 68 per
cent of Governments identified meeting labor market demands as the underlying reason for their
current immigration policy. A large share of Governments (46 per cent) also viewed immigration
policy as a tool to safeguard employment opportunities for their nationals. Demographic drivers
were the third most widely cited rationale, with 15 per cent of Governments pursuing their
current immigration policy to address population ageing and 13 per cent to counter long-term
population decline.
Globally, in 2015, the majority of Governments either had no explicit policy on emigration (36
per cent) or sought to maintain current levels (23 per cent). Only 9 per cent of Governments
sought to raise the current level of emigration of their citizens, while 32 per cent had policies to
lower it.
In general, with appropriate policies, migration can contribute to inclusive and sustainable
economic growth and development. Indeed, the available evidence suggests that the overall
impact of international migration is overwhelmingly positive for countries of origin, countries of
destination and migrants and their families.
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Chapter Summary
Populations change in size, composition, and distribution via fertility, mortality, and migration.
But these changes are not random in their occurrence. Many governments have been known to
pass laws and regulations that deal with their levels of fertility, mortality, and migration,
particularly migration. Many of the laws represent direct effects to influence national rates of
population change, and others involve indirect effects.
In this chapter, we have discussed the definition of population policy. A population policy is a
deliberately constructed arrangement or program “through which governments influence, directly
or indirectly, demographic change”. Moreover, the types of population policies are presented as
Explicit and implicit. Further, the possible bases for the elaboration and implementation of
population policies are elaborated.
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Starting in the 1970s, there was considerable debate in academic circles with many advocating
voluntary family planning. The first World Population Conference was held in Bucharest,
Romania, in 1974. The second such conference was held in Mexico City in 1984. The third
International Conference on Population and Development (ICPD) was held in Cairo, Egypt. The
major objectives of these conferences and their influence on population growth are discussed.
Most developing countries have developed anti-natalist population policy which aimed at
lowering the population size. Recently, developed countries are adopting pronatalist policies.
Reductions in mortality were also included in the policies of governments. Immigration has
become an important phenomenon in recent decades in many parts of the world.
Review Questions
Part I- True/False Items
Write true if the statement is correct and write False if the statement is incorrect
1. The Mexico population conference stressed the importance of individual choices and the
necessity to further empower women.
2. In almost all the countries of the developed world, fertility rates are below the level
needed to replace the population.
3. There are no countries in the world today without some sort of immigration policy.
Part II- Multiple choices
Choose the Best Answer for the following Questions
4. Which international population conference radically altered the international population

movement?
a. The Bucharest conference
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b. The Mexico conference
c. The Cairo conference
d. The Addis Ababa Conference
5. In the 1950s, which country is the first to introduce incentives to influence childbearing
behavior?
a. USA d. India
b. Egypt e. Bangladesh
c. Mexico
6. Which one of the population policies is the least favored policies of countries
experiencing population declines?
a. Financial remittances
b. Immigration policies encouraging migration
c. Child-care subsidies
d. Rewards
e. None of the above
7. One of the following is a reason for anti-population policy formulation?
A. occupy parts of a country that are virtually empty
B. to help develop the resources of a state
C. build up the military
D. gain more influence internationally
E. repress a group of people
8. Which one of the following can be taken as the component of explicit policy if a country
wants to Slow Population Growth?
A. Restrict child labour C. Raise the age of marriage
B. Raise status of women D. Provide old age security
9. Identify the wrong statement about the population policy trend of the world for the last
forty years.
A. At global level, the percentage of country who aimed to lower population is higher
than those who plan to raise it.
B. In developed countries, the percentage of countries that raise their population is
greater than those who lower it.
C. Among least developed countries, there are some countries who took no intervention
against population growth.
D. None of the above.
Part III- Short Answer
Write short Answer for the following Questions
1) What were the major conditions set by feminists and Neo-Malthusians on the Cairo
population conference?
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CHAPTER FIVE
POPULATION AND DEVELOPMENT IN ETHIOPIA

In this chapter, we will discuss the population size, distribution, policies and the relationship
between population and development in Ethiopia. The first section deals with the population
growth trends of Ethiopia. We will also discuss the unique characteristics of Ethiopia’s
population. The second section presents the demographic dividend in Ethiopia. Finally, we will
discuss the population policy of the country.
Objectives:
After a successful completion of the chapter, you will be able to:
 Know the population characteristics of Ethiopia
 Identify the difference between Ethiopia’s population and other Sub Saharan Africa
 Understand the population policy of Ethiopia.
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5.1. Demographic Trends of Ethiopia
This section focuses on the basic demographic trends of Ethiopia. An attempt is made to present
the population size, the fertility and mortality changes of Ethiopia over time. The population
distribution of Ethiopia is also presented.
Objectives:
After successful completion of the section, you will be able to
- Discuss the population change trends of Ethiopia
- illustrate the regional population distribution of Ethiopia
Population Size
Since the 1960s, Ethiopia’s population has grown at an average of 2.5% annually, increasing
from 22 million people in 1960 to around 105 million in 2017. The first national census,
conducted in 1984, estimated the total population to be 42.6 million. Ethiopia’s population first
doubled to over 44 million in 1987. The second national census in 1994 found that over 10 years
the population had increased by more than 25 percent to 53.5 million, corresponding to an
average annual growth rate of 2.6 percent. The third census was conducted in 2007 and estimated
a population of 73.5 million, corresponding to an average annual growth rate of 2.9 percent. In
2010, an Inter-Censual Population Survey (ICPS) by United Nations estimated the population at
87.million (see table 5.1).
According to the recent UN (2017) projection report, Ethiopia’s total population is estimated to
be about 105million which makes it the 2 nd largest country in Africa and the 12 th in the World. It
has an average annual rate of population change of 2.6 percent adding around 2 million people
per year. Along the Current Path forecast, the country’s population will increase to 116.7 million
by 2021 and 145.7 million by 2030.
Table 5.1- Population projection of Ethiopia, 1960 to 2018
Year Population % Male

% Density Population Growth
Female (km²) Rank Rate
2018 107,534,882 49.93% 50.07% 97.38 12 2.46%
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2017 104,957,438 49.93% 50.07% 95.04 12 2.49%
2016 102,403,196 49.93% 50.07% 92.73 13 2.53%
2015 99,873,033 49.92% 50.08% 90.44 13 2.63%
2010 87,702,670 49.91% 50.09% 79.42 14 2.71%
2005 76,727,083 49.89% 50.11% 69.48 16 2.89%
2000 66,537,331 49.86% 50.14% 60.25 16 3.03%
1995 57,309,880 49.86% 50.14% 51.9 21 3.57%
1990 48,086,516 49.87% 50.13% 43.54 23 3.34%
1960 22,151,278 49.71% 50.29% 20.06 25 2.12%
Source: UN, 2018
Fertility Rate
In Ethiopia, there is a decline in fertility from 6.6 in ca. 1990 to 5.5 in ca. 2000 and then slowed
down to 5.4 in ca. 2005. In 2017, it has shown further decline to 4.6 (UN, 2017). While fertility
rates have consistently declined, Ethiopia’s fertility rate still ranks among the highest in the
world (26th out of 186 countries) and is nearly twice the global average of 2.4. Along the
Current Path, Ethiopia’s fertility rate is forecast to decline to 3.7 children by 2030.
Urban areas in Ethiopia have the lowest fertility among urban areas in eastern and southern
Africa. Looking at fertility levels in capital cites in eastern and southern Africa, Addis Ababa
stands out as the only city with below replacement fertility after the 1990s.
Mortality rate
Overall, Ethiopia has made progress catching up with peer countries and has a lower infant
mortality rate than the average across low-income countries in Africa. Before 2000, almost all
regional states recorded more than 100 infant deaths per 1,000 live births, but by 2011 infant
mortality in all regions was lower than 100 infant deaths, except for Benishangul Gumuz. By
2030, the infant mortality is forecast to fall to 31.5 per 1,000.
Similarly, under-five mortality was 21 percent lower in 2011 than it was 10 years ago. In 2017,
this mortality became 68 per 1000 live births. Regarding Maternal Mortality Ratio, it declined
from over 1,000 deaths per 100,000 live births in the late 1980s and early 1990s to 871 in 2000
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and it further declined to 673 in 2005. In 2017, CDR was 8 persons per thousand populations.
The average number of life expectancy has improved and became 64 (see table 5.2).
Childhood mortality varies among regional states and is consistently higher in rural and
emerging regions than in urbanized and advanced regions. The 2011 DHS data clearly illustrate
that Benishangul Gumuz has the highest infant and under-five mortality rates at 101 infant deaths
per 1,000 live births and 169 under-five deaths per 1,000 live births, followed by SNNPR,
Gambella, and Amhara, while urban areas Addis Ababa and Dire Dawa have the lowest infant
and under-five mortality rates. Nevertheless, even in Addis Ababa, one in 25 children dies before
their fifth birthday.
Mortality rate reductions are reflected in improvements in life expectancy; from 1960 to 2016,
Ethiopia’s overall life expectancy increased from 37 years to 65 years, with a gradual slowdown
during the 1980s due to widespread famine and multiple conflicts. Today, female life expectancy
(67 years) is about four years higher than males (63 years), although this discrepancy is fairly
typical across countries.
Table 5.2. -Ethiopia’s population in 2017
Average annual rate of population
change 2.6
CBR (births per 1000) 34
CDR (deaths per 1000) 8
TFR 4.6
Life Expectancy 64
Under-five Mortality Rate 68
Under age 15 (in percent) 41
Source: UN, 2017
Demographic Transition
As Ethiopia continues to develop, improvements in fertility and mortality will cause the
population to mature, moving Ethiopia rapidly through the demographic transition. Currently,
Ethiopia is in Stage 3 of the standard demographic transition. As we have discussed in chapter
three, Stage 3 is characterized by falling birth rates due to factors such as improvements in
access to contraception, increases in wages and urbanization, shifts in economic structure away
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from subsistence agriculture, changes in the status of women, reductions in child labor, and
larger investments in female education.
Regional Population distribution

Concerning the spatial distribution of population, about 80% of the population lives in three
regional states namely Oromia, Amhara and SNNPRS. The largest proportion of the population
lives in Oromia regional state (37.83%) followed by Amhara regional state (22.54).The smallest
proportions of population live in Gambela (0.47%) and Harari (0.26%) regional states (Table
5.3). The national population density was 97 persons per kilometer square (Table 5.1).
Table 5.3- Regional population Distribution Projection (2017)

Region Percentage
Oromia 37.83
Amhara 22.54
SNNPRS 20.45
Somali 6.13
Tigray 5.60
Addis Ababa 3.66
Afar 1.93
Benshangul gumuz 1.14
Gambella 0.47
Harari 0.26
Source: CSA, 2013
The populations of Ethiopia are living predominantly in rural (84%) which is among the highest
in Africa, and rural land holdings per household are shrinking. Urban growth rate is twice as high
(4.2%) as rural, but small market towns mushrooming; capital city of Addis Ababa over 10 times
larger than any other city.
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Contraception use
Availability of, and sufficient access to, contraception is an important determinant of changing
fertility rates. Modern contraception use among women in Ethiopia quadrupled from about 6% in
2005 to more than 27% in 2011, reaching 36% in 2016. Part of the growth in contraception
coverage is the result of a concerted push in GoE policy to expand access. Beginning in 2002,
Ethiopia’s Ministry of Health began expanding distribution at the community level through
teams of community health volunteers that distributed low-cost contraceptive measures. The
Ministry also successfully rolled out a package of policies aimed at expanding healthcare
infrastructure and targeting women at the community level. Contraception use in Ethiopia is
about six percentage points higher than the average prevalence rate among low-income countries
globally, and almost nine percentage points higher than in Africa’s other low-income countries.
In general, when we compare Ethiopia with other Sub-Saharan Africa countries, it is unique in 4
major ways. First, there is well advanced fertility transition in urban areas (with only 16% of the
population), but incipient (early-transition) fertility level in rural areas. Second, there is
significant increase in contraceptive use. Third, there is rapid infant and child mortality decline;
and finally, there is a substantial decline in desire to have additional child in rural areas.
5.2. Demographic Dividend

Dear learner, in this section the potential role of population age structure change to the Ethiopia’s
development is discussed. Ethiopia’s population age structure is continuously changing since
1990. It will also do in the future. This has its own implication to the economic development of
Ethiopia.
Objectives:

- Discuss the differences in population pyramids of Ethiopia in 1990, 2010, 2015 and 2030.
- Explain how the change in population age structure contributes to the economy of
Ethiopia.
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Ethiopian population is significantly youthful i.e. 45% are under 15 years of age, while only
3.1% are above age 65. However, it is on the path to a population age structure that may enable it
to experience a demographic dividend. The Total Fertility Rate, or the average number of
children per woman over the course of her lifetime, has declined from 7.2 children in 1990 to 4.6
children per woman in 2015.
The age structure of the Ethiopian population has remained children and youth dominant for a
long time now. The recent incipient fertility reductions, however, are beginning to slow down the
growth of the youngest population whilst the number of elderly people is not yet important
because of the small dimension of past cohort, and because of the still high level of adult
mortality. The age dependency ratio in the 1984 census was 112 (CSA, 1991); it declined
somewhat in the 1994 census to 95 (CSA, 1999); in the 2007 census it declined a little to 91
(CSA, 2010) and is projected to fall to 76 by the year 2015. The United Nation’s medium variant
projection also projects it to reach 45.6 by 2050 further reinforcing the dramatic change in the
age structure of the Ethiopian population in the coming four decades. Under these conditions,
there is potential for Ethiopia if the country is to capture the demographic dividend that will be
opened up by the demographic transition process.
Figure 5.1 Population Pyramid, Ethiopia 1990, 2010, 2015 and 2030
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Source: UN, 2015
The population pyramids in Figure 5.1 show the population’s age structure in base year 1990, in
2010, 2015 and in 2030. The fertility decline is visible in the decreasing size of the pyramid base
over time, as more of the population is concentrated in the working-age groups. This
concentration is the necessary (but not sufficient) first condition for the demographic dividend.
The broad bases of the “Ethiopia 1990” pyramid represent a large number of children in relation
to the working age population. “Ethiopia 2010” shows a base that is beginning to narrow at the
youngest ages, representing a fertility decline. “Ethiopia 2030” is the United Nations (UN)
projection of Ethiopia’s population age structure if fertility continues to decline at a moderate
rate. This pyramid assumes that by 2030, fertility will decline to an average of 3.0 children per
woman over the course of her life. UN projections for Ethiopia’s population age structure in
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2030 look significantly different than earlier population pyramids. It shows a proportionately
larger working age population compared to the number of dependent children and elders,
creating a window of opportunity for rapid economic growth.
Trend data shows that Ethiopia has made big strides on an issue that is important to achieving a
demographic dividend. Increased contraceptive use is observed at both the national and
subnational levels, also with regional variations. At national level in 2000, contraceptive
prevalence among married women was 8 percent and, according to the 2014 mini-Demographic
and Health Survey, it jumped to 42 percent by 2014. Although, urban women are more likely
than their rural counterparts to use any method of contraception, use among currently married
women in some rural areas has skyrocketed in recent years. As a result, as we can see from
population pyramids, fertility is declining and Ethiopia’s age structure is beginning to shift.
A large and rapidly expanding demographic dividend represents a favorable opening for
sustained economic growth in Ethiopia, one that could potentially last decades. Significant
progress has been made in reducing infant mortality, disease burdens, and fertility rates, while
simultaneously improving life expectancy. The demographic dividend presents a long window of
opportunity for inclusive and sustained economic growth, higher savings and more productive
investments, and significant improvements to human capital that result in healthier and better
educated populations. Nevertheless, the demographic dividend is not guaranteed. Capturing the
demographic dividend will require that Ethiopia pursue policies to further reduce fertility
rates(see section 5.5 for the policies), expand investments in sectors that can create jobs for
unskilled youth (particularly agriculture and manufacturing), while expanding education and the
stock of skilled labor. Female education should also be a priority, both to contribute to further
fertility reductions, and to empower females to enter the labor force.
The federal government should also support the regional states’ ability to maintain and scale up
investments in human capital. Because national averages often mask differences in health and
education outcomes, a subnational perspective is important for equity considerations. Some
Ethiopian regional states are not progressing sufficiently in terms of the main drivers of the
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demographic dividend and thus, require special and intensified attention. With increased
attention to reduce health and education inequality between regional states and effective
implementation of supporting policies, Ethiopia could earn a large demographic dividend and
improve the quality of life for inhabitants nationwide.
The Government of Ethiopia should further pursue economic policies that help create an
inclusive and competitive economic environment to stimulate foreign investment. Just as the
demographic dividend can last for decades, the policies and investments required to harness that
dividend are similarly long-term. Thus, Ethiopia must not only be aware of this demographic
opportunity, but actively and properly plan and invest accordingly. Otherwise, a significant
youth bulge, coupled with high unemployment, can be both a hindrance to economic growth and
productivity, as well as a source of social instability.
5.3. Population growth and service delivery

As we have discussed in the previous sections, the population of Ethiopia will continue to grow
in size and show change in age structure. These put a pressure of the service delivery in the
country. Dear learner, in this section you will learn about the relationship between population
growth and service delivery in the country.
Objectives:

- Elaborate the service demand of the population of Ethiopia
- Discuss the challenges resulting from rapid urbanization
An important implication of a rapidly expanding population is that it strains the government’s
ability to provide basic services such as electricity, clean water and sanitation, sufficient food,
and infrastructure. Ethiopia already struggles to provide universal access to basic services,
particularly in rural areas; adding an additional 45 million people to the population by 2030 will
only compound this challenge. Table 5.4 below lays out the Current Path forecast of service
demand for calories, water connections, and electricity connections in Ethiopia between 2016
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and 2030. The table provides an indication of the challenges facing the Ethiopian government in
meeting service delivery for a population forecast to continue growing at a rapid rate.
Table 5.4 Service demand in Ethiopia 2016-2030

2016 2021 2030
Total Crop Demand (million metric tons) 40 44.6 60
Improved Sanitation Connection Needed
(millions) 5 5.1 6.9 12.7
Piped Water Connections Needed (millions) 13.5 22.6 49.9
Electrical Connections Needed (millions) 5.1 7.5 13.9
Source: Donnenfeld et al, 2017
Urbanization will also be an increasingly important factor for the country’s development path.
Cities are positively correlated with economic productivity both in developing and developed
countries, particularly through agglomeration effects of concentrating workers and businesses in
the same area. Cities have also been found to have a positive effect on innovation and knowledge
creation. Moreover, cities can help facilitate increased access to basic infrastructure because
increased population density reduces the per capita cost of infrastructure construction.
Rapid urbanization is not without its pitfalls, as it can leave public services strained and unable
to meet rising demand. Urbanization, if not properly managed, often leads to overcrowding, poor
living conditions and slums, as well as urban unemployment. Moreover, the stress of rapid
urbanization often causes environmental degradation. Evidence suggests that urbanization is
happening in Africa at lower levels of income than in other regions of the world and with less
investment in infrastructure.
Ethiopia is one of the least urbanized countries in Africa. The capital, Addis Ababa, is the only
city in Ethiopia with a population greater than 1 million people and in 2016, only about 20% of
the population lived in urban areas. For a country of Ethiopia’s relative level of development, the
urban population is expected to be closer to 30% (benchmarked against GDP per capita). By
comparison, Nigeria and Egypt, the first and third most populous countries in Africa, have closer
to 45-50% of the population living in urban centers.
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Ethiopia’s urban population has more than tripled since 1991, growing from 6.4 million in 1991
to approximately 19 million today, representing an average growth rate of about 4.7% over that
period. Growth is expected to continue, and by 2030, close to 39 million people (26% of the
population) are expected to live in urban areas.
Urbanization produces large swathes of urban poor, who often face a different set of challenges
than their rural counterparts. Despite rapid economic growth since 2003, Ethiopia is still
combating high levels of poverty. Today, as much as 25% of Ethiopia’s population (26 million
people) live on less than US$1.90 per day (the international threshold for extreme poverty).
Despite a decline in the share of those living in slum housing, the absolute number of Ethiopians
living in informal settlements has increased from approximately five million in 1990 to ten
million in 2010. By 2030, there could be as many as 27 million Ethiopians living in urban slum
housing.
A rapidly growing population will strain the ability of the government to deliver services and
meet the needs of its population. If service provision remains an issue, it will be exacerbated by
the pressures of a large and youthful share of the total adult population. Strong service delivery
will allow Ethiopia to take advantage of its rapid population growth through sustained and
inclusive economic growth.
5.4. Migration
Dear learner in this section migration in Ethiopia will be discussed briefly. Attention will be
given for the international migration i.e. immigration and emigration.
Objectives:

- Compare the immigration pattern of Ethiopia with other neighboring countries
- Describe the emigration of Ethiopians
Ethiopia’s historical migration patterns have largely been the result of its history of violent
conflict. Large scale emigration occurred in the mid-1970s as many Ethiopians escaped drought
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and famine and life under the communist regime of the Derg. Many immigrants began returning
to Ethiopia in the late 1980s and early 1990s following the end of the Ethiopian civil war and the
establishment of the government under the EPRDF. The volatility in migration patterns seen in
Ethiopia and some of its direct neighboring countries underscores the instability that has plagued
the Horn of Africa region for decades. Figure 3.p shows a history of net migration for select
countries in the Horn of Africa.
In 1990, an estimated 1.1 million migrants were living in Ethiopia. By 2015, that number was up
to 1.7 million. Ethiopia also hosts a significant refugee population, and in 2014, overtook Kenya
as the largest refugee hosting country in Africa, with more than 700,000 refugees. The refugee
population may account for as much as 40% to 45% of the total stock of foreign-born migrants in
Ethiopia. Much of the recent growth in Ethiopia’s refugee population has come from South
Sudanese citizens escaping the current conflict, and from Eritreans escaping political
persecution.
Since 1990, close to 50% of the foreign-born population in Ethiopia originated in Somalia (many
of whom are refugees), and between 30 to 35% have come from Sudan. Between 2010 and 2015,
there has been a surge in the number of South Sudanese migrants, an estimated 75% of whom
may be refugees, and also Eritrean migrants who accounted for 10-15% of the total foreign born
stock in 2015. More than 60% of Eritreans in Ethiopia in 2015 may be refugees.
Ethiopia also has a large diaspora; there may be as many as three million Ethiopians living and
working abroad. Top destinations for Ethiopian emigrants include the U.S. (17%) and Saudi
Arabia (12-15%). Emigration to the U.S. has grown from approximately 3% percent in 1990 to
over 17% in 2015. Saudi Arabia has also seen similar growth across the time period. In 1990,
almost 60% of Ethiopian emigrants went to Sudan, but that number has dropped to around 10%,
as of 2015.
5.5. Population Policy of Ethiopia

Since 1993, Ethiopia has developed population policy at national level. This population policy is
contributing significantly to the change in the patterns of population growth. The issue of
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population is also incorporated in the national development plans. This section, therefore, is
dedicated to the population policy of Ethiopia.
Objectives:
After successful completion of this section, you will be able to:
- Elaborate the objectives of the national policy of Ethiopia
- Discuss the specific fertility, mortality and migration policies
Ethiopia has adopted an explicit population policy in April 1993, which recognized the links and
interrelationships between population, resources, the environment and development. A
committee of experts drawn from various sector ministries, academic institutions, non-
governmental organizations and the private sector was formed by the Prime Minister of the
Transitional Government of Ethiopia in late 1992 with the task of drafting the population policy.
The committee organized several consultative meetings, seminars and workshops in which
papers were presented on issues related to population and development. The committee also
reviewed research findings and workshop proceedings on population and development
interrelationships, the draft population policy developed by the Military Government as well as
population policies and programs of other African countries (e.g., Tunisia, Ghana, Egypt and
Tanzania). These activities guided the formulation of the NPP.
The goal of the 1993 NPP was to harmonize the rate of population growth with that of the
economy, to coordinate and influence other strategies and programs that ensure sustainable
development of the people and to promote gender equality and the empowerment of women. Its
demographic objectives include reducing total fertility rate from 7.7 children per woman to 4;
achieving a corresponding increase in modern contraceptive prevalence rate (CPR) from less
than 5 to 44% of married women of reproductive age; and reducing infant, child, and maternal
mortality.
The policy provided guidelines that determined priorities in population and development
programs that should be designed to strengthen the preparation and implementation of the socio-
economic development effort of the country. In addition, the policy gave directions for
addressing population issues in an integrated manner. It thus recognized the relationships
between population dynamics and quality of life on one hand, and environmental protection and
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sustainable development on the other. The NPP identified issues that require priority attention in
its implementation, which included strengthening domestic capacity for population data
collection, research and training and the expansion of information, education, communication
and social mobilization, as well as improving access to and quality of service delivery,
addressing legal issues regarding the advertising and distribution of contraception and the
minimum age at marriage, among others.
National development plan like PASDEP, GTP-I and GTP-II have taken into account the issue of
population. PASDEP, which is basically intended at the minimum to achieve the MDGs targets,
considered rapid population growth as one of the development challenges. Creating the balance
between economic development and population growth was one of the eight pillar strategies of
PASDEP.
Similarly, in GTP-1(2010/11-2014/15), the Population policy focuses on the harmonization of

the rate of population growth and the capacity of the country for the development and rational
utilization of natural resources to the end that the level of welfare of the population is maximized
overtime. Since there is a strong interrelationship between development and population it is
necessary to give serious attention to population issues in the process of development planning in
order to improve the socio-economic development of the country.
The recent development plan i.e. GTP II (2015/16-2019/20) has also incorporated population
policy goals like strengthening measures taken to balance population growth rate with the growth
of the economy; strengthening measures taken to maintain the current declining trends of
fertility; creating balancing situation between demographic variables and social, economic and
environmental goals.
Specific Population Policies

Dear learner, based on the information from UN (2015) report, the specific population policies
with regard to population growth, population aging, fertility, mortality and international
migration are discussed as follows.
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According to UN (2015), Ethiopia is one of the less developed regions that had policies to lower
the rate of population growth. Though population aging is a minor concern, the government
implemented policies like raising the minimum retirement age, raising social security
contributions of workers; and promoting private savings schemes for retirement.
Like many developing countries key measures to reduce fertility include: raising the minimum
legal age at marriage; providing access to reproductive health services, including low cost, safe
and effective contraception; integrating family planning and safe motherhood programs into
primary health care systems; and improving female education and employment opportunities
Measures to address newborn and maternal mortality [2010-2015] include expanded coverage of
comprehensive prenatal care, expanded coverage of obstetric care; expanded coverage of
essential post-partum and new born care; expanded access to effective contraception; expanded
access to safe abortion care, including post-abortion care and expanded recruitment and training
of skilled birth attendants.
Policies on the spatial distribution of population [2010-2015] include reduction of migration

from rural to urban areas, decentralization of large urban centers to smaller urban, suburban or
rural areas and -relocation out of environmentally fragile or threatened areas.
Concerning international migration, Ethiopia has undertaken various policy measures on

irregular immigration including penalties for employers of migrants in an irregular situation,
fines, detention or deportation of migrants in an irregular situation and regularization of legal
status under defined schemes or conditions. As to emigration, Ethiopia sought to maintain
current levels and took policy measures to attract investment by Diaspora like reducing costs of
transferring remittances, tax exceptions or breaks and preferential treatment in providing credit
or allotment of licenses.
Chapter Summary
In this chapter, we have discussed about the demographic trends of Ethiopia. According to the
recent UN (2017) projection report, Ethiopia’s total population is estimated to be about
105million which makes it the 2nd largest country in Africa and the 12th in the World. It has an
average annual rate of population change of 2.6 percent adding around 2 million people per year.
156
Along the Current Path forecast, the country’s population will increase to 116.7 million by 2021
and 145.7 million by 2030.
In Ethiopia, there is a decline in fertility from 6.6 in ca. 1990 to 5.5 in ca. 2000 and then slowed
down to 5.4 in ca. 2005. In 2017, it has shown further decline to 4.6 (UN, 2017). Overall,
Ethiopia has made progress catching up with peer countries and has a lower infant mortality rate
than the average across low-income countries in Africa.
Furthermore, Ethiopia’s population age structure is continuously changing since 1990. Due to the
population age structure change, Ethiopia has an opportunity for economic development.
However, unless the youth bulge is properly managed, coupled with high unemployment, can be
both a hindrance to economic growth and productivity, as well as a source of social instability.
The pressure of population growth on the service delivery and the international migration i.e.
immigration and emigration, in Ethiopia was also discussed briefly.
In the last section, the population policy of Ethiopia was presented. Since 1993, Ethiopia has
developed population policy at national level. This population policy is contributing significantly
to the change in the patterns of population growth. The focus of the national development plans
like PASDEP, GTP-I and GTP-II for population is also incorporated and discussed.
Review Questions
Part I- /False items
Write True if the statement is correct and write false if the statement is incorrect
1. Ethiopia has adopted an explicit population policy in April 1983.
2. Ethiopia is one of the least urbanized countries in Africa.
157
3. Large scale emigration occurred in the mid-1970s.
4. Ethiopia is one of the less developed regions that had policies to lower the rate of
population growth.
5. Ethiopia’s total fertility rate is the same as the global average.
Part II- Multiple Choices
Choose the Best Answer for the following Questions
1. When we see the demographic transition of Ethiopia, currently it is found in which stage?
A. Stage 1 D. Stage 4
B. Stage 2 E. Stage 5
C. Stage 3
2. One of the following is not the objective of the national population Policy of Ethiopia
A. Closing the gap between high population growth and low economic productivity
B. Expanding economic and social development processes through holistic integrated
development programs
C. Reducing the rate of urban to rural migration.
D. Raising the economic and social status of women
E. None of the above
3. Which one of the following false about the Ethiopia’s demographic trends?
A. Urban areas in Ethiopia have the highest fertility among urban areas in eastern and
southern Africa.
B. Currently, Ethiopia’s total fertility is 4.6.
C. During the third census, Ethiopia’s population is estimated to be 73.5 million.
D. None of the above
4. In Ethiopia, the largest and the smallest proportion of the population in ___________ and
__________ regional states .
A. Oromia and Benshangul Gumuz D. Oromia and Afar
B. Ormoia and Harari E. Amhara and Harari
C. Harari and Oromia
Part II- Short Answer Questions
Give short Answer for the following questions
1. What are the four major ways that make Ethiopia unique as compared with other sub-Saharan
Africa countries?
158
___________________________________________________________________________
___________________________________________________________________________
___________________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________________
2. What was the major goal of the 1993 NPP of Ethiopia?
___________________________________________________________________________
___________________________________________________________________________
___________________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________________
3. What are the pitfalls of Rapid urbanization?

___________________________________________________________________________
___________________________________________________________________________
___________________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________________
References
Adam, S. (2005). The Dynamics of Socio-Economic Development: An Introduction. UK:
Cambrigde University
159
Donnenfeld, Z., Porter, A., Cilliers, J., Moyer, J. D., Scott, A., Maweni, J., & Aucoin, C. (2017).
Ethiopia Development Trends Assessment. Ethiopia Performance Monitoring and Evaluation
Service (EPMES), Ethiopia Development Trends Assessment (2017).
Dyson, T. (2013). Population and Development: the demographic transition. Zed Books Ltd..
Gould, W. T. (2015). Population and Development. Routledge.
Graff, M., & Bremner, J. (2014). A practical guide to population and development. Washington
DC: Population Reference Bureau.
Todaro, M. P., & Smith, S. C. (2012). Economic development. Pearson Education.
160
Answers for Activities and Review Questions
Chapter 1
Part I- True/False Item
1. False
2. False
3. True
Part II: Multiple Choices

1. A. 3. B 5. B
2. A 4. C 6. B
Part III- Matching
1. E 4. C 7. H
2. G
5. B 8. J
3. A
6. I

1. De jure and De facto
2. Demographic and Health Surveys and World Fertility Surveys.
3.
Advantages Disadvantages
 The coverage aims to be universal  The size and complexity of the exercise
 The census provides an important means that the content and quality control
sampling frame for subsequent surveys efforts may be limited
and studies  The cost of carrying out a census means
 The census can serve as a useful tool for that most countries can pursue an
‘nation-building’, by involving the entire enumeration only every ten years
population  There is usually a significant delay
 Census data avoids the sampling errors between when the data are collected and
that can occur with sample data the results released.
 Censuses provide data for small areas,  Censuses are easily politicised – either by
such as districts and counties, which is groups who feel that they might be
systematically undercounted by the
vital for the planning of services exercise, or by parties found to be larger
than that of other groups
Chapter 2
161
Answers to the Activities
Activity 2.1.
1. The CBR is 5663/149,442 * 1000 = 37.9

2. CBR = (3,250 ÷ 223,000) X 1,000 or CBR = 14.57. So, there were 14.57 births for every
1,000 people in the city.
3. The ASFR is calculated as follows
Age Group Births No of women Rate/Woman Age
(Ba) in the age specific rates
group per 1000
women
15-19 764 14893.2 0.051 51
20-24 2304 11747.2 0.196 196
25-29 1994 9602.3 0.208 208
30-34 1295 8805.5 0.147 147
35-39 564 7549.5 0.075 75
40-44 161 6643.2 0.024 24
45-49 19 4498.8 0.004 4
4. TFR=
5 * (51 + 196 + 208 + 147 + 75 + 24 +4) = 3.53

1000
Where: the figures in parentheses are age-specific rates for the 15-19, 20-24, ..., 45-49
age categories, respectively taken from the above table.
5. GRR= TFR*.488
= 3.53*0.488
= 1.72
Activity 2.2.
1. Economic- the theory of intergenerational wealth flow, Easterlin economic theory, and
Liebenstein theory of cost-benefit analysis
Cultural- Theory of Increasing Prosperity, Dumont’s Theory of Social Capillarity.
Biological Theories- Spencer’s Biological Theory and the Diet Principle
Activity 2.3.
162
1. The IMR is estimated as (74,528/548,000) * 1000 = 136.
2. Solution:
The total deaths of 15- 19 years adults = 3600
The total population of children of the same age group = 50000
Age specific death rate (ASDR) =?
Here, ASDR = Da/Pa * 1000
= 3600/50000 * 1000
= 72 per thousand
Therefore, 72 children of age 15-19 years died per 1000 population of the same age group
in country x in the year 2009.
3.
a) Maternal Mortality rate (MMR)
MMR= (10/10000)*100000 = 100
Interpretation: There were 100 deaths of mothers per 10000 women of the age 15-49
b) Infant mortality rate (IMR)
IMR= (10/200)*1000 = 50
Interpretation: There are 50 deaths of infants per 1000 live births
c) Child mortality rate (CMR)
CMR= (50/200)*1000=
Interpretation= There are 250 deaths of children less than five year per 1000 live births.
4. The Infant Mortality can be calculate using the following formula
Interpretation: There were 17 deaths of infants under age 1 per 1,000 live births in Venezuela in 1996.
Activity 2.4.
1. The NMR is (8,320-7249)/1258000 * 1000 = 0.85

2. Based on the data the Rates can be calculated as follows
a. The Emigration rate
163
Interpretation: In 1996, the Swedish emigration rate was 3.8 emigrants per 1,000 residents.
b. The Immigration rate
Interpretation: In 1996, the Swedish immigration rate was 4.5 per 1,000 residents
c. The Net Migration Rate
Interpretation: In 1996, Sweden experienced a net increase of 0.7 persons per 1,000 populations
through migration.
Activity 2.5
1. Based on the information the population between the ages of 15 and 64 is 55% (100-
[41+4]). Then the dependency ratio is calculated as:
DR= [(41+4)/55]*100
= [45/55]*100
= 81.8
2. By the Rule of 70, we know that the doubling time (dt) is equal to 70 divided by the
growth rate (r). That means our formula would look like this:
dt = 70 / r
dt = 70 / 4
dt= 17.5
Answers to Chapter 2-
164
Review Questions
Part I- Multiple choices
1. B 4. B 7. A
2. C 5. E 8. D
3. D 6. D
Part II- Matching
1. E 4. D
2. A 5. C
3. B
Part III- Fill in the Blank Space

1. Population, organization, environment, and technology.
2. Population Pyramid
Part IV-Short Answer

1. Rate refers to the frequency of a demographic event in a population for a given time
period divided by the population “at risk” for the same time period. On the other hand,
Ratio is the relation of one population subgroup to the total population or to another
subgroup.
2. Total fertility rate (TFR) refers to the average number of children born per women in a
population. Whereas Age specific Fertility rate ( ASFR) refers to the Number of births in
specific age groups of women
Chapter 3
Part I- True/false items
1. True 3. False
2. False 4. True
1. C
2. B
3. B
Part III- Fill the Blank Space
1. Demographic Dividend
2. Demographic Transition
165
1. The first stage is the pre-transitional or pre-industrialization stage. It is also known us low
stationary or high fluctuating stage. In this stage there is high birth and death rate. The pre-
transitional stage was followed by the first transitional stage. In this stage there is high birth
rate and declining death rate which result high population growth. In the third stage, there is
falling birth rate and low death rate that will result moderate population growth. The fourth
stage is a stage where there will be low population growth as a result of low birth and death
rate.
Chapter Four
Part I- True/False
1. False
2. True
3. True
4. C
5. D
6. B
7. E
8. C
9. D
1. The following are the main arguments of feminists and Neo-Malthusians during the Cairo
Conference
a. population stabilization is a desirable, ultimate goal, although not one warranting
the use of compulsion;
b. national programs enhancing access to contraception are justified in terms of
individual human rights, not in terms of their development advantages for
aggregate populations; and
c. The empowerment of women is a prerequisite for the enduring low fertility that
population stabilization requires.
166
Chapter Five
Part I- True/false Items
1. False
2. True
3. True
4. True
5. False
1. B
2. C
3. A
4. B
1. First, there is well advanced fertility transition in urban areas (with only 16% of the
population), but incipient (early-transition) fertility level in rural areas. Second, there is
significant increase in contraceptive use. Third, there is rapid infant and child mortality
decline; and finally, there is a substantial decline in desire to have additional child in rural
areas.
2. The goal was to harmonize the rate of population growth with that of the economy, to
coordinate and influence other strategies and programs that ensure sustainable
development of the people and to promote gender equality and the empowerment of
women
3. Some of the pitfalls of rapid urbanization include, pressure on public services and failure
to meet rising demand, leads to overcrowding, poor living conditions and slums, as well
as urban unemployment, and often causes environmental degradation.

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Hawassa University

Distance Learning Module

Population and Development

Compiled by – Abdurahman Hamza

Edited by – Yalew Emagne

At the end of this module, students will be able to:

At the end of this module, you will be able to:

1.1.Demography versus Population Studies

The study of population is multidisciplinary in nature, involving an understanding of biology,

1.2. Development Studies and Population Studies

What are the main stances of anti-development and post-development theory?

1.2.2. The Growth of Population Studies

Table 1.2- Estimated World Population Growth through History

1.4. The Sources of Demographic Information

1.4.1. National Censuses

De Facto and De Jure Populations

Table 1.4- Advantages and disadvantages of Census

What advantages come from registering vital events?

World Fertility Surveys

Demographic and Health Surveys

3. Population studies has longer history than development studies.

Part I: Multiple Choices

2. Which one of the following is true of the De facto census method?

4. Which one of the following is wrong about world population?

Part III- Matching

Part IV- Short Answer

 Elaborate the theories related to the demographic variables

Upon completion of this section, you will be able to:

2.1.2. Measurement of Fertility

Interpretation: There were 24 births per 1000 population in Kuwait in 1994.

d) Total Fertility Rate (TFR)

C = specific age group interval (usually it is 5)

e) Gross Reproduction Rate (GRR)

=2,055.2∗0.488=1,002.9 per 1000 women between 15-49 i.e. 1 per woman

Age Group Births No of

15-19 764 14893.2

2.1.3. World Fertility Trends

2.1.4. Factors Affecting Fertility Rates

The Status of Women

Spencer’s Biological Theory:

Dumont’s Theory of Social Capillarity:

Thus, according to Caldwell, it is the direction of intergenerational flow of wealth in terms of

2.2. Mortality: Death Rates

2.2.2. Measuring Mortality

a) Crude Death Rate

CDR= Error: Reference source not found

Example 1- In country X in 2005,

Example 1: In country X in 2005,

f) Maternal Mortality Ratio/Rate ( MMR)

Have you attempted? Good.

Maternal Moratality Rate is calculated as:

Maternal mortality is widely acknowledged as a general indicator of the overall health of a

a) Calculate the maternal Mortality rate

2.2.4. Factors Effecting Mortality

2.2.5. Theories of Mortality

There are three stages:

2.3.1. Concepts and Definitions

In every international migration, a migrant is simultaneously an immigrant and an emigrant. The

2.3.2. Measurements of migration

National and international migration can be measured in terms of:

Example: In country Y in 2010,

b) Gross in-migration Rate (GIMR) and Immigration Rate (IR)

Example 1: In country Y in 2010,

From the above Examples,