SIMULATION of

p and q Impact of "p" and "q"

103,000,000 N
0.0039 p 25000000
0.753 q

results check: S(t+1) = p*N + (q-p)*Q(t) - (q/N)*Q(t)^2

Year Sales Cum. Sales 20000000
1989 0 0
1990 401,700 401,700
1991 701,434 1,103,134
1992 1,219,161 2,322,295 15000000

SALES
1993 2,101,904 4,424,199
1994 3,572,772 7,996,971
1995 5,924,702 13,921,673
1996 9,413,520 23,335,193 10000000
1997 13,901,200 37,236,393 S
1998 18,158,867 55,395,259
1999 19,464,483 74,859,743
2000 15,510,223 90,369,966 5000000
2001 8,393,490 98,763,455
2002 3,075,426 101,838,882
2003 868,994 102,707,876
2004 220,485 102,928,361 0
Ye 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 20 20 20 20 20 2
2005 54,186 102,982,547 ar 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99YEAR
00 01 02 03 04 0
2006 13,208 102,995,755
2007 3,213 102,998,968
2008 781 102,999,749
2009 190 102,999,939
2010 46 102,999,985
2011 11 102,999,996
2012 3 102,999,999
2013 1 103,000,000
2014 0 103,000,000
2015 0 103,000,000
2016 0 103,000,000
2017 0 103,000,000
2018 0 103,000,000
2019 0 103,000,000
2020 0 103,000,000
2021 0 103,000,000
2022 0 103,000,000
2023 0 103,000,000
2024 - 103,000,000
2025 - 103,000,000
2026 - 103,000,000
2027 - 103,000,000
2028 - 103,000,000
2029 - 103,000,000
2030 - 103,000,000
2031 - 103,000,000
2032 - 103,000,000
2033 - 103,000,000
2034 - 103,000,000
2035 - 103,000,000
2036 - 103,000,000
2037 - 103,000,000
2038 - 103,000,000
2039 - 103,000,000
2040 - 103,000,000
2041 - 103,000,000
2042 - 103,000,000
2043 - 103,000,000
2044 - 103,000,000
2045 - 103,000,000
Impact of "p" and "q"
120000000

100000000

80000000

60000000

Sales Cum. Sales 40000000

20000000

0
19 19 19 19 19 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20
YEAR
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
 SIMULATION of
p and q
75,000,000 N Impact
0.0543 p
0.025 q 25000000
results check: S(t+1) = p*N + (q-p)*Q(t) - (q/N)*Q(t)^2
Year N Sales Cum. Sales
1989 75,000,000 0 0 20000000
1990 76,500,000.00 4,072,500 4,072,500
1991 78,030,000.00 4,029,206 8,101,706
1992 79,590,600.00 3,978,619 12,080,325
1993 81,182,412.00 3,921,977 16,002,302
15000000

SALES
1994 82,806,060.24 3,860,480 19,862,782
1995 84,462,181.44 3,795,277 23,658,059
1996 86,151,425.07 3,727,448 27,385,507
1997 87,874,453.58 3,657,997 31,043,504
10000000
1998 89,631,942.65 3,587,839 34,631,343
1999 91,424,581.50 3,517,801 38,149,144
2000 93,253,073.13 3,448,618 41,597,762 5000000
2001 95,118,134.59 3,380,936 44,978,698
2002 97,020,497.28 3,315,310 48,294,008
2003 98,960,907.23 3,252,214 51,546,222
2004 100,940,125.37 3,192,045 54,738,267 0
2005 102,958,927.88 3,135,125 57,873,392 Ye 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19
2006 105,018,106.44 3,081,711 60,955,103 ar 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98
2007 107,118,468.57 3,032,002 63,987,105
2008 109,260,837.94 2,986,145 66,973,250
2009 111,446,054.70 2,944,238 69,917,488
2010 113,674,975.79 2,906,342 72,823,830
2011 115,948,475.31 2,872,481 75,696,311
2012 118,267,444.81 2,842,653 78,538,963
2013 120,632,793.71 2,816,828 81,355,792
2014 123,045,449.58 2,794,960 84,150,751
2015 125,506,358.58 2,776,984 86,927,735
2016 128,016,485.75 2,762,824 89,690,559
2017 130,576,815.46 2,752,393 92,442,952
2018 133,188,351.77 2,745,598 95,188,551
2019 135,852,118.81 2,742,342 97,930,893
2020 138,569,161.18 2,742,524 100,673,417
2021 141,340,544.41 2,746,040 103,419,457
2022 144,167,355.30 2,752,790 106,172,247
2023 147,050,702.40 2,762,673 108,934,920
2024 149,991,716.45 2,775,590 111,710,510
2025 152,991,550.78 2,791,444 114,501,955
2026 156,051,381.79 2,810,145 117,312,099
2027 159,172,409.43 2,831,602 120,143,702
2028 162,355,857.62 2,855,733 122,999,434
2029 165,602,974.77 2,882,456 125,881,891
2030 168,915,034.27 2,911,697 128,793,588
2031 172,293,334.95 2,943,385 131,736,973
2032 175,739,201.65 2,977,454 134,714,427
2033 179,253,985.68 3,013,843 137,728,270
2034 182,839,065.40 3,052,495 140,780,764
2035 186,495,846.71 3,093,357 143,874,122
2036 190,225,763.64 3,136,384 147,010,506
2037 194,030,278.91 3,181,530 150,192,036
2038 197,910,884.49 3,228,758 153,420,794
2039 201,869,102.18 3,278,031 156,698,825
2040 205,906,484.22 3,329,320 160,028,145
2041 210,024,613.91 3,382,597 163,410,742
2042 214,225,106.19 3,437,837 166,848,579
2043 218,509,608.31 3,495,022 170,343,601
2044 222,879,800.48 3,554,134 173,897,735
2045 227,337,396.49 3,615,159 177,512,895
 Impact of "p" and "q"
120000000

100000000

80000000

60000000

Sales Cum. Sales 40000000

20000000

0
19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20
YEAR
91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
 Price Sensistivity α 0.5
Advertising Sensitivityβ 0.3
Relative Price Relative Advertising
1 1 1 The equation is
2 1 1.15
3 0.99 1.32
4 0.99 1.52 𝑥_𝑡=1+𝛼(𝑎𝑏𝑠(𝑝_𝑡−𝑝_(𝑡−
5 0.98 1.74
6 0.97 2.01
7 0.96 2.31
8 0.95 2.66
9 0.94 3.06
10 0.93 3.52
11 0.92 4.05
12 0.91 4.65
13 0.9 5.35
14 0.89 6.15
15 0.88 7.07
16 0.87 8.14
17 0.86 9.36
𝑥_𝑡=1+𝛼(𝑎𝑏𝑠(𝑝_𝑡−𝑝_(𝑡−1) )/𝑝_(𝑡−1) )+𝛽(((𝐴_𝑡−𝐴_(𝑡−1) ))/𝐴_(𝑡−1) )

so if price decreases, x increases and if advertising expenditure decreases relative to previous time period, adoptions would de
me period, adoptions would decrease.
 SIMULATION of
p and q
103,000,000 N
0.0039 p
0.753 q
2 alpha (Price Sensitivity)
3 beta (Advertising Sensitivity)

results check: S(t+1) = (p*N + (q-p)*Q(t) - (q/N)*Q(t)^2)*x(t)

Year N Sales Cum. Sales Price Advt
1 103,000,000 0 0 1 1
2 105,060,000.00 582,465 582,465 1 1.15
3 107,161,200.00 868,936 1,451,401 0.99 1.32
4 109,304,424.00 1,490,371 2,941,771 0.99 1.52
5 111,490,512.48 2,570,350 5,512,122 0.98 1.74
6 113,720,322.73 4,358,735 9,870,857 0.97 2.01
7 115,994,729.18 7,192,609 17,063,466 0.96 2.31
8 118,314,623.77 11,344,494 28,407,960 0.95 2.66
9 120,680,916.24 16,605,692 45,013,653 0.94 3.06
10 123,094,534.57 21,547,536 66,561,188 0.93 3.52
11 125,556,425.26 #VALUE! #VALUE! 0.92 4.05
12 128,067,553.76 #VALUE! #VALUE! 0.91 4.65
13 130,628,904.84 #VALUE! #VALUE! 0.9 5.35
14 133,241,482.94 #VALUE! #VALUE! 0.89 6.15
15 135,906,312.60 #VALUE! #VALUE! 0.88 7.07
16 138,624,438.85 #VALUE! #VALUE! 0.87 8.14
17 141,396,927.62 #VALUE! #VALUE! 0.86 9.36
 SIMULATION of
p and q
103,000,000 N
0.0039 p
0.753 q
2 alpha (Price Sensitivity)
3 beta (Advertising Sensitivity)

results check: S(t+1) = (p*N + (q-p)*Q(t) - (q/N)*Q(t)^2)*x(t)

Year N Sales Cum. Sales Price Advt
1 103,000,000 0 0 1 1
2 105,060,000.00 582,465 582,465 1 1.15
3 107,161,200.00 868,936 1,451,401 0.99 1.32
4 109,304,424.00 1,535,082 2,986,482 0.99 1.52
5 111,490,512.48 2,758,139 5,744,621 0.98 1.74
6 113,720,322.73 4,921,594 10,666,215 0.97 2.01
7 115,994,729.18 8,601,885 19,268,100 0.96 2.31
8 118,314,623.77 14,347,419 33,615,519 0.95 2.66
9 120,680,916.24 21,772,222 55,387,741 0.94 3.06
10 123,094,534.57 27,611,924 82,999,666 0.93 3.52
11 125,556,425.26 25,437,019 108,436,684 0.92 4.05
12 128,067,553.76 14,224,265 122,660,950 0.91 4.65
13 130,628,904.84 5,096,503 127,757,452 0.9 5.35
14 133,241,482.94 2,827,412 130,584,864 0.89 6.15
15 135,906,312.60 2,680,437 133,265,301 0.88 7.07
16 138,624,438.85 2,724,868 135,990,169 0.87 8.14
17 141,396,927.62 2,777,782 138,767,951 0.86 9.36