International Journal of All Research Education and Scientific Methods (IJARESM), ISSN: 2455-6211

Volume 9, Issue 8, August -2021, Impact Factor: 7.429, Available online at: www.ijaresm.com

Application of the Multiple Regression Analysis for

Prediction of Green Compression Strength
P Srinivasa Rao1*, R H Gajghat2, Prabhat Kumar Giri3
1,2
Professor Mechanical Engineering Department, CCET, Bhilai-490026, Chhattisgarh
3
Associate Professor, SSGI, Bhilai, Chhattisgarh
*
Corresponding Author: srinivas.indore@gmail.com

--------------------------------------------------------------*****************--------------------------------------------------------

ABSTRACT

The study on green sand moulding to determine green compression strength using regression analysis has been
carried out. Coefficient of correlation, determination and multiple determinations were used to establish the
relationship existing between the two independent variables molasses and fly ash and green compression
strength as the dependent variable. It was found that the coefficient of determination for Ys: X1 was 0.52 while
the coefficient of correlation was 0.72, coefficient of determination for Ys: X2 was 0.42 while the coefficient of
correlation was 0.65 and the coefficient of multiple determination was 0.70; these coefficients assisted
tremendously in the green compression strength. A mathematical model was developed for the prediction of
green compression strength. It was tested and proved to be a valid estimation tool for estimating green
compression strength on the foundry shop floor.

Keywords: regression analysis, green sand, green compression strength.

INTRODUCTION

The main aim of foundry industries in the world is to produce good quality castings. Green sand casting is one of the
oldest and most widely used casting processes. It is one of the prominent processes where huge products can be
manufactured with minimum processing time. The moulding sand may be considered as a mixture of inert granular
sand particles, bonding material and other additives. Molasses, a by-product from sugar industries is not only
economical and eco-friendly material but can also be used as binder for producing stronger moulds. The strength,
permeability and thermal properties of the bonded sands are mostly dependent on the constituents of the moulding sand
[1]. The major source of defects in sand casting is due toimproper sand mixture. However, defects can be minimized by
the proper control ofmoulding sand properties like green compression strength, permeability, mould hardness and bulk
density of sand, which, in turn, are dependent on the input parameters, such as sand grain fineness, amount of binder
and moisture, etc. Ample of researchers made an attempt on moulding sand and its properties during 1960’s to 1970’s
around the world. Most of the research work during that period was based on experimental and theoretical
approaches.Statistical design of experiment has proved to be an effective tool for studying the complex effects of
number of independent variables on response factor. Regression analysis is one among such method. Karunakar and
Dutta[2]suggested optimum formulation of the green sand mixture using back propagation artificial neural network and
micro genetic algorithm between them micro genetic algorithms meritorious results over artificial neural networks.
Jakubski et al.[3] suggested applying neural networks for controlling the quality of bentonite moulding sands.
Parappagoudar et al.[4] presented a work on forward and reverse mappings in green sand mould system using neural
networks. Theyfound that Genetic algorithm-Neural Network outperforms the back propagation neural networkand that
both the neural network approaches are able to carry out the reverse mapping effectively.Delijaicov et al.[5]studied
statistical methods based on multiple regression and neural networks and applied toa data set generated by peen
forming designed experiments with aluminium alloy plates, aiming to synthesize quantitative models relating the
highest displacement of the plate with respective variables of the process. Luke Haung et al.[6] formed multiple
regression models to predict surface roughness in turning operation. Chang et al. [7] investigated the properties of
green moulding sand and a new model was developed to evaluate the flowability of moulding sand.It was found that
the flowability of silica sand is affected by water content, bentonite and sea coal content. Jain[8] made an attempt on
effect of grain size variation and moisture content on green compression strength of green sand mould. It was observed
that moisture wasincreased,respectively green compression strength also increased whereas further increment led to
decrease in green compression strength. FeridunBoylu[9] studied foundry sand characteristics of soda-activated
calcium bentonite. It was observed that, optimization was achieved using the response surface regression methodfor
activated calcium bentonite used in foundry sand.Ihom et al.[10] proposed the analysis and prediction of green
permeability values in sand moulds using multiple linear regression models. Jun Wang et al. [11] investigated the

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 International Journal of All Research Education and Scientific Methods (IJARESM), ISSN: 2455-6211
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compatibility and the uniformity of green moulding sand by the gamma-ray attenuation.Regression analysis of the
study is an important property which gives in-depth information to produce good sand moulds. Similar studies also
made by various researchers [12-16] that statistical models will provide models for the quick estimation of green
compression strength providedthat the clay content and moisture content is available. It also minimizes the time used in
setting up instrument for tests to determine green compression strength. It was agreed that statistical approaches will
bring out clearly the nature of relationships that exists between green compression strength the dependent variable, clay
content andmoisture content the independent variables [12-16]. Gadag et al. [17]utilized regression equations in
optimizing the composition of the moulding sand toachieve the requisite properties of the moulding sand.

For a sand mixture to be mouldable it must have a green compression strength value of 1.5 psi (10.34 kPa) and above
[21]. Low green compression strength in green moulds may result in defective and unsound casting [22] because there
willbe erosion, collapsibility, and damage of the mould wall and this will result in defects like rat tails, sand inclusions,
incomplete molten metal flow, rough surfaces etc. It determines the important of the property in mould production and
is always monitored in sand casting [20-23].Aondona Paul Ihom and AniekanOffiong[24] studied that statistical
approach is effective method for studying green compression strength moulding sand. Similar research work on casting
also made by few researchers[25-31]. Yet, prediction and estimation of green compression strength in green sand
mould was not studied. So, with a motive to study on green sand mould to determine green compression strength is
examined using multiple regression analysis, which will help the foundry industries to minimize the time in setting
parameters. So, an attempt was made to study the green compression strength of a green sand mould using multiple
regression analysis.
MATERIALS AND METHOD

Moulding sand mixtures and standard samples

In green sand mould,fly ash and molasses was used as additives for the present investigation. Universal strength testing
machine, sand rammer, sand muller and measuring cylinders were usedin the investigation.The dnas neerg deifidom
)SGM( was prepared by mixing molasses at 1.25-3.25% of green sand (GS) by weight dnafly ash at 5-15% of GS by
weight.The mixture was placed into a sand muller and run for 5 minutes at150 rpm. To prepare standard mould
samples, the sandmixture was taken in a cylindrical dieand cylindrical specimen was deraperpas per the AFS standards
as shown in the Fig. 1(50mm Diameter x 50mm Height).

Table 1.Various compositions ofmolasses and fly ash

S.No % Molasses (X1) % Fly Ash (X2) Total Percentage of Composition

1 1.25 5 6.25
2 1.25 15 16.25
3 2.25 10 12.25
4 1.25 10 11.25
5 3.25 10 13.25
6 2.25 15 17.25

Fig.1 Cylindrical sand specimen 50x50mm

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Similarly,same procedure was repeated for the preparation of the standard test specimens for thevarious compositions
of MGS for experimentation as depicted in Table 1. The green compression strength (GCS) si determined for the
standard snemiceps immediatelyafter ramming with the help of universal sand strength testing machine as shown in
Fig. 2.

Fig. 2 Universal strength machine ofsand (for compression test)

Multiple Regression Model Development

The basic two variable models (one dependent and one independent variable) is
𝑌 = 𝑎 + 𝑏𝑋 (1)
This can be solved using the normal equations thus
∑𝑌 = 𝑎𝑛 + 𝑏∑𝑋 (2)
∑𝑋𝑌 = 𝑎∑𝑋 + 𝑏∑𝑋 2 (3)
From this can be developed models with more than two variables and this is illustrated below using a 3 variable model
(one dependent and two independent variables, Y, X1, and X2)

𝑌 = 𝑎 + 𝑏𝑋1 + 𝑏𝑋2 (4)

∑𝑌 = 𝑎𝑛 + 𝑏1 ∑𝑋 1 + 𝑏2 ∑𝑋 2 (5)
∑𝑋1 𝑌 = 𝑎∑𝑋1 + 𝑏1 ∑𝑋 21 + 𝑏2 ∑𝑋1 𝑋2 (6)
∑𝑋2 𝑌 = 𝑎∑𝑋2 + 𝑏1 ∑ 𝑋1 𝑋2 + 𝑏2 ∑𝑋22 (7)
The line of best fit gives way to a plane of best fit, b1 is the slope of the plane along the X1 axis, b2 is the slope along the
X2axis and the plane cuts the Y axis at “𝑎”. The aim of adding to the simple two variable models is to improve the fit of
the data. The closeness of fit is measured by the coefficient of multiple determination R2 for which the general formula
and a useful computational formula is given below.
2
∑ 𝑌𝑆
𝑎 ∑ 𝑌𝑆 +𝑏1 ∑ 𝑋1 𝑌𝑆 +𝑏 2 ∑ 𝑋2 𝑌𝑆 −
2 𝑛
𝑅 = ∑ 𝑌𝑠 2
(8)
∑ 𝑌𝑆2 −
𝑛

Table 2 gives the calculation of separate regressions with green compression strength as Ys, molasses as X1 and fly ash
as X2.

For Regression Yson X1 (Molasses %)

𝑛 ∑ 𝑋1 𝑌𝑆 − ∑ 𝑋1 ∑ 𝑌𝑆 7 × 2684 − 14.75 × 1260 203
𝑏𝑋1 = 2 = = = 5.97
𝑛 ∑ 𝑋12 − ∑ 𝑋1 7 × 35.9375 − 14.752 34

∑ 𝑌𝑆 𝑏𝑋1 ∑ 𝑋1 1260 5.97 × 14.75

𝑎𝑋1 = − = − = 167.4
𝑛 𝑛 7 7

The regression equation for the relationship of molasses and green compression strength value of the green mould is
𝑌𝑋1 = 𝑎𝑋1 + 𝑏𝑋1 𝑋1
𝑌𝑋1 = 167.4 + 5.97𝑋1 (9)
The coefficient of correlation for this relationship is

𝑛 ∑ 𝑋1 𝑌𝑆 −∑ 𝑋1 ∑ 𝑌𝑆
𝑟𝑋1 = (10)
𝑛 ∑ 𝑋12 − ∑ 𝑋1 2 × 𝑛 ∑ 𝑌𝑆2 − ∑ 𝑌𝑆 2

Substituting the values in Table 2in Equation (10) we have

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For Regression of Ys on X2 (% Fly ash)

𝑛 ∑ 𝑋2 𝑌𝑆 − ∑ 𝑋2 ∑ 𝑌𝑆 7 × 14510 − 80 × 1260 770
𝑏𝑋2 = 2 = = = 1.28
𝑛 ∑ 𝑋22 − ∑ 𝑋2 7 × 1000 − 802 600
∑ 𝑌𝑆 𝑏𝑋2 ∑ 𝑋2 1260 − 1.28 × 80
𝑎𝑋2 = − = = 165.3
𝑛 𝑛 7
The regression equation for the relationship of fly ash with green compression strength value of the green mould is

𝑌𝑋2 = 𝑎𝑋2 + 𝑏𝑋2 𝑋2 = 165.3 + 1.28𝑋2 (11)

𝑛 ∑ 𝑋2 𝑌𝑆 − ∑ 𝑋2 ∑ 𝑌𝑆
𝑟𝑋2 = = 0.65
𝑛 ∑ 𝑋22 − ∑ 𝑋2 2 × 𝑛 ∑ 𝑌𝑆2 − ∑ 𝑌𝑆 2
𝑟𝑋22 = 0.42i.e. coefficient of determination for Ys: X2
𝑟𝑋1 = 0.72𝑟𝑋21 = 0.52 i.e. coefficient of determination for Ys: X1

The Multiple Regression (Ys: X1and X2)

The multiple regression calculations are carried out using the three variable normal Equations (4)-(7) with substitution
with values from Table 2new set of equations are derived as follows

1260 = 7𝑎 + 14.75𝑏1 + 80 𝑏2 (12)

2684 = 14.75𝑎 + 35.93𝑏1 + 175 𝑏2 (13)
14510 = 80𝑎 + 175𝑏1 + 1000𝑏2 (14)
Solving these three equations simultaneously gave
𝑎 = 159.39
𝑏1 = 4.751
𝑏2 = 0.927
Now substituting the model equation for three variables in Equation (4), this new model equation is obtained

Table 2. Calculation of separate regressions with Green compression strength as Ys

S. No
Ys Ys2 X1 X12 X2 X22 X1 Ys X2 Ys X1X2
1 172 29584 1.25 1.5625 5 25 215 860 6.25
2 175 30625 1.25 1.5625 15 225 218.75 2625 18.75
3 176 30976 2.25 5.0625 10 100 396 1760 22.5
4 178 31684 1.25 1.5625 10 100 222.5 1780 12.5
5 180 32400 3.25 10.5625 10 100 585 1800 32.5
6 185 34225 2.25 5.0625 15 225 416.25 2775 33.75
7 194 37636 3.25 10.5625 15 225 630.5 2910 48.75
∑ 1260 227130 14.75 35.9375 80 1000 2684 14510 175

𝑌 = 159.39 + 4.751𝑋1 + 0.927𝑋2 (15)

This mathematical model is derived with the combined influence of molasses and fly ashis considered and therefore
can be used to predict the green compression strength of the green sand mould.Table 4 shows empirical values with
calculated values using the mathematical model.

Coefficient of Multiple Determination, R2

From Equation (9)
𝑅2 = 0.70

RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

Results
The coefficients of determination can be summarized as follows.

𝑟𝑋21 = 0.52
𝑟𝑋22 = 0.42

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𝑅2 = 0.70

Equations (9), (11) and (15) are the developed regression models for simple and multiple linear regression
relationshipsexisting between green compression strength and the two variables of molasses and fly ash in the green
sand mould.
DISCUSSION

The various coefficients are interpreted as follows:

𝑟𝑋21 :Indicates that about 52% of the variation in green compression is caused by variation in molasses percentage;it is a
major influence and the influence is positive which means that an increase in molassespercentage by weightresulted
increase in green compression strength.

𝑟𝑋22 : Indicates that 42% of the variation in green compression strength is caused by variation in fly ash percentage; this
is a major positive influence that fly ashpercentage by weight has on green compression strength whichmeans as fly ash
increased green compression strength also increased.

Table 3shows the result of calculation of the regression with green compression strength as the dependentvariable.

Table 4gives the empirical values of green compression strength against mathematical model values and predicted
values of green compression strength.

𝑅2 = 0.70This shows the combined influence of the two variables of molasses and fly ash percentage by weight. The
influence is a major influence and it is positive by70 percentageof the change in green compression strength values in
green sand mould are brought about by the combined influence of molasses and fly ash percentage by weight.

The individual correlation between molasses and green compression strength is given by the coefficient of correlation
𝑟𝑋1 and the value is 0.72 and established a positive relationship.

Table 3. Green Compression strength with variation in Molasses and Fly ash

S.No % Molasses (X1) % Fly Ash (X2) Green Compression Strength kPa (Ys)

1 1.25 5 172
2 1.25 15 175
3 2.25 10 176
4 1.25 10 178
5 3.25 10 180
6 2.25 15 185
7 3.25 15 194

Table 4: Empirical and Mathematical model values

Ys(Empirical values of green Ys(Mathematical model values of green

S. No X1(%) X2(%)
compression strength)kPa compression strength)kPa

1 1.25 5 172 169.88375

2 1.25 15 175 179.15375
3 2.25 10 176 179.2675
4 1.25 10 178 174.51875
5 3.25 10 180 184.02075
6 2.25 15 185 183.90475
7 3.25 15 194 188.65575

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It means that 72 percentage of variation in green compression strength is influenced by molasses. The individual
influence on green compression strength is therefore significant. Equation (9) which is a model for predicting the green
compression strength of green sandmould based on the influence of molasses alone. The correlation agrees completely
with existing theories, as molasses increased green compression strength also increased. As per the experimentation,
researchers were observed that adequate quantity of molasses promotes binding ability to enhance the green
compression strength. From the earlier researchers, the present research work strongly agrees adding molasses to
improve the sand properties [32-33].

Fly ashalso added to the green sand has a very strong positive correlation with green compression strength of green
sand moulds. The correlation is 0.65 which means that 65 percentage of the increased in green compression strength
will be caused by increased in fly ash of the moulding mixture if the fly ash is considered as variable. The importance
of fly ash addition is also observed practically that moulds with fly ash below optimum do tend to be lacking in green
compression strength. Fromthe earlier researchers, it was observed thatthe green compression strength increasesuntil an
optimum point is reached and further increase led to a decrease in green compression strength [33-35].

The combined effect of molasses and fly ash as well as the influence on green compression strength has been given by
the coefficient of multiple determinationas interpreted in equation(8). The established relationship from the coefficient
of multiple determination agrees with earlier researchers resulted both molasses and fly ashto enhance the green
compression strength of moulding sand[33-35]. Equation (15) is developed based on the influence of both molasses and
fly ash variation on green compression strength of green sand moulds as indicated by the coefficient of multiple
determination 𝑅2 . This mathematical model is derived with the combined influence of molasses and fly ashconsidered
and therefore can be used to predict the green compression strength of the green sand mould is represented in Table 4.
From the Table 4, itshows the empirical values of green compression strength against green compression strength
values calculated using the developed mathematical model. The difference between the empirical values of green
compression strength and the calculated green compression strength values was not appraisable. Also, it was observed
thatthe green compression strength has been predicted for 10% by weightmolasses and 2.25% by weight fly ash, and
3.25% by weight molasses and 10% by weightfly ash and the result of the prediction is within a reasonable range. The
results in Table 4also shown that the developed model can be a scientific method for the prediction of green
compression strength on the foundry shop floor. From the present research work, various additives can also be studied
similarly to predict the mould properties. Regression analysis have indeed proven to be a reliable method for the study
of green compression strength as per the present investigation, it had provided a step by step analysis of the relationship
between green compression strength and the two variables of molasses and fly ashrespectively. Their interactive
influence on green compression strength has also been studied through the use of multiple coefficient of
determination 𝑅2 . It had been agreed by various researchers as a prominent research tool in industries [12-16, 18].

CONCLUSIONS

From the experimental study the following major conclusions were drawn
1) Regression analysis has been found to be a scientific method of study on greencompression strength of the
greensand mould.
2) The coefficients of correlation, coefficients of determination and coefficient of multiple determinations areimportant
tools for the present investigation to develop the relationship between the variables (independent and dependent
variables).
3) It was observed that the positive strong relationship established between green compression strength of the dependent
variable and the two independent variables of molasses and fly ash. From the analysis, acoefficient of multiple
determination of 0.70 which translates to 70% of the variation in green compression strength coming from the
combined effect of molasses and fly ash was deliberated.
4) It developed a mathematical model which can be used for the prediction and estimation of green compression
strength in green sand moulds. It clearly confirms that the crucial nature of statistical approach in thestudy of green
sand moulds might be useful to implement in the foundry industries.

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