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Malaysia Sector Update

1 October 2019 Financial Services | Banks

Banks Neutral (Maintained)


Stocks Covered 8
All Eyes On Business Asset Quality
Ratings (Buy/Neutral/Sell): 3/4/1
Last 12m Earnings Negative
Revision Trend:
 Maintain NEUTRAL with CIMB, HL Bank and BIMB as Top Picks. We Top Picks Target Price
believe tightening cash flows among businesses are increasingly worrying, CIMB (CIMB MK) – BUY MYR5.60
evidenced by the decline in business deposits and higher GIL. We opine that HL Bank (HLBK MK) – BUY MYR18.70
the rebound in August business loan growth, largely lifted by working capital BIMB Holdings (BIMB MK) – BUY MYR5.00
financing, is likely a sign of tougher business conditions – rather than an
improvement in sentiment.
 August system loan growth rebounded 0.6% MoM, while YoY growth
momentum remained steady at +3.9%. The sequential strength was led by Analyst
resilient residential mortgages (+0.6% MoM) and a 0.9% MoM rebound in
working capital loans (July: -0.5% MoM). As a result, system annualised loan Fiona Leong
growth gained pace to 2.9% in August (July: +2.3%) +603 9280 8886
 Tougher outlook for businesses. System loan applications, on a 3-month fiona.leong@rhbgroup.com
moving average (3MA) basis, grew 1.1% MoM (July: -2.2%). Business loan
applications rebounded to +5.1% MoM in August (July: -6.5%), likely lifted by
the demand in working capital loans. Household loan applications, however,
slipped slightly at -2.0% MoM (July: +1.4%), largely on the MoM slowdown in
housing (-6.3% MoM) and auto (-6.9% MoM) loan applications.
 Deposit growth slowed by +0.2% MoM (July: +0.4%) while YoY growth also
moderated to +4.5% (July: +4.8). The contraction in deposits from businesses Drivers of system loans growth
(32% of system deposits) worsened by -1.4% MoM (July: -0.6% MoM), while
(%)
deposits from individuals (37% of total) grew 0.2% MoM in July, largely Households Non-Households System
16
unchanged from July. System CASA deposits ratio slipped slightly to 33.5% 14
(July: 33.7%). 12

 System GILs crept up by 1.2% MoM in July (June: +1.7%), driven mainly by 10

manufacturing (+8.3% MoM), wholesale and retail (+3.9% MoM) and 8

construction sectors (+2.1% MoM). The utilities sector saw a 6 3.90%

15.3% MoM jump in GIL, albeit from a very low base. Household GIL edged 4

2
up 0.5% MoM but the GIL ratio remained unchanged MoM at 1.04%. GIL
-
ratios for manufacturing and construction further deteriorated by 27bps to
Mar-11

Jan-12
Jun-12

Jul-14

Mar-16

Jan-17
Jun-17

Jul-19
Dec-09

Nov-12

Feb-14

Dec-14

Nov-17
Aug-11

Feb-19
May-10
Oct-10

Apr-13
Sep-13

May-15
Oct-15

Aug-16

Apr-18
Sep-18
3.43% and 2bps MoM to 2.73%. In mitigation, GILs from the financial services
sector declined 3.4% MoM. System GIL ratio saw a mild 1bp uptick to 1.61%.
Source: Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM)
 Average lending rate (ALR) was unchanged MoM at 4.82% in August, as
deposit asset repricing approaches an end, following the 25bps overnight
policy rate (OPR) cut in May while fixed deposit rates were largely steady at
3.09%. The 10-year Malaysian Government Securities yield compressed by
28bps MoM, signalling investor expectations of further relaxation in monetary
policy.
 Gross funds raised remained robust. Gross funds raised totalled
MYR93.9bn in Jan-Aug 2019 (+35% YoY), mainly on strong bond financing
issuance in May.

TP % Upside P/E (x) P/BV (x) Yield (%)


Company Name Rating
(MYR) (Downside) Dec-19F Dec-19F Dec-19F
BIMB Buy 5.00 26.3 9.3 1.23 4.0
CIMB Buy 5.60 11.3 9.5 0.89 5.4
HL Bank Buy 18.70 14.3 11.8 1.16 3.3
Maybank Neutral 8.50 (0.1) 12.4 1.15 6.7
Public Bank Neutral 22.10 10.1 14.1 1.77 3.5
AMMB Neutral 4.45 7.5 8.7 0.64 5.1
ABMB Neutral 3.10 8.8 7.9 0.70 6.1
Affin Bank Sell 1.75 (10.2) 7.9 0.42 2.8
Source: Company data, RHB

See important disclosures at the end of this report


1
Market Dateline / PP 19489/05/2019 (035080)
Banks Malaysia Sector Update
1 October 2019 Financial Services | Banks

Banking System Loans Growth


Figure 1: System loans by purpose, Aug 2019 Figure 2: System loans by sector, Aug 2019
(MYRm) % of total % MoM % YoY (MYRm) % of total % MoM % YoY
Purchase of securities 83,239 4.8 0.8 5.4 Primary agriculture 36,039 2.1 1.6 0.1
Transport vehicles 168,164 9.7 (0.0) (1.6) Mining & quarrying 9,082 0.5 2.0 (13.3)
Of which: Manufacturing 114,946 6.6 (0.2) 6.3
159,264 9.2 (0.0) (1.6)
Passenger cars Electricity, gas & water 13,222 0.8 (0.3) (3.9)
Residential property 588,760 33.9 0.6 7.1 Wholesale & retail, hotels
Non-residential property 222,557 12.8 0.1 2.2 128,189 7.4 0.4 6.5
& restaurants
Fixed assets other than Construction 93,705 5.4 1.4 9.1
12,226 0.7 0.8 18.7
land & building Real estate 114,226 6.6 (1.3) (3.0)
Personal use 95,851 5.5 0.5 2.8 Transport &
Credit card 39,489 2.3 0.7 1.4 40,097 2.3 4.3 6.5
communications
Consumer durables 94 0.0 (1.2) (19.6) Finance, insurance & biz 112,321 6.5 2.5 (0.1)
Construction 56,612 3.3 0.5 2.4 Education & health 40,287 2.3 (0.8) 4.8
Working capital 392,919 22.6 0.9 2.1 Household sector 1,012,248 58.2 0.5 4.6
Other purposes 79,089 4.5 1.4 6.9 Others 24,640 1.4 2.1 (2.2)
Total 1,739,001 100.0 0.59 3.9 Total 1,739,001 100.0 0.6 3.9

Source: BNM, RHB Source: BNM, RHB

Figure 3: System loan growth Figure 4: Loan growth – household vs businesses


(MYRbn) Total loans (MYR bn) Loans growth (% YoY) (YoY) Household loans Non-Consumer loans Total Loans
1,900 15% 20%

1,700 13% 16%


1,500
11%
12%
1,300
9% 4.6%
1,100 8%
7%
900
4%
700 5%
2.9%
3.9%
500 3% 0%
Jul-11

Jul-18
Jul-06

Jul-07

Jul-08

Jul-09

Jul-10

Jul-12

Jul-13

Jul-14

Jul-15

Jul-16

Jul-17
Jan-06

Jan-07

Jan-08

Jan-09

Jan-10

Jan-11

Jan-12

Jan-13

Jan-14

Jan-15

Jan-16

Jan-17

Jan-18

Jan-19
Dec-06
Aug-07

Dec-08
Aug-09

Dec-10
Aug-11

Dec-12
Aug-13

Dec-14
Aug-15

Dec-16
Aug-17

Dec-18
Aug-19
Apr-06

Apr-08

Apr-10

Apr-12

Apr-14

Apr-16

Apr-18

-4%

Source: BNM, RHB Source: BNM, RHB

Figure 5: Property loan growth – residential vs non- Figure 6: Construction loan growth
residential
(%) Residential prop - YoY % Non-resi property - YoY % (MYR'bn) Construction YoY % (%)
25 System loans - YoY % 105 25
95
20
20 85
75 15
15 9.1%
65
10
55
10
7.1%
45 5

5 35
0
25
2.2%
0 15 -5
Nov-08
Nov-07

Nov-09

Nov-10

Nov-11

Nov-12

Nov-13

Nov-14

Nov-15

Nov-16

Nov-17

Nov-18
May-10

May-14
May-07

May-08

May-09

May-11

May-12

May-13

May-15

May-16

May-17

May-18

May-19

Feb-08
Nov-08

Feb-11
Nov-11

Feb-14
Nov-14

Feb-17
Nov-17
Aug-09

Aug-12

Aug-15

Aug-18
May-07

May-10

May-13

May-16

May-19

Source: BNM, RHB Source: BNM, RHB

See important disclosures at the end of this report


2
Market Dateline / PP 19489/05/2019 (035080)
Banks Malaysia Sector Update
1 October 2019 Financial Services | Banks

Figure 7: Wholesale & retail and hotels & restaurants loan Figure 8: Finance, insurance & business activities loan
growth growth
(MYRbn) Wholesale & retail trade, and hotels & restaurants (%) (MYRbn) Finance, insurance and business activities YoY % (%)
150 YoY % 20 130 35
120 30
130 15 110 25
100 20
110 10
90 15
90 5 80 10
6.5%
70 5
70 0 60 0
50 -0.1% -5
50 -5
40 -10
30 -10 30 -15

Feb-08

Feb-11

Feb-14

Feb-17
Aug-09

Aug-12

Aug-15

Aug-18
Nov-08

Nov-11

Nov-14

Nov-17
May-07

May-10

May-13

May-16

May-19
Feb-08

Feb-11

Nov-11

Feb-14

Feb-17

Aug-18
Nov-08

Aug-09

Aug-12

Nov-14

Aug-15

Nov-17
May-07

May-10

May-13

May-16

May-19
Source: BNM, RHB Source: BNM, RHB

Figure 9: Manufacturing loan growth Figure 10: Purchase of securities loan growth
(MYRbn) Manufacturing YoY % (%) (MYR'bn) Purchase of securities YoY % (%)
120 20 90 140
110 80 120
15
100 70 100
10
90 80
60
80 6.3% 5 60
50
70 40
0
40
60 5.4% 20
-5 30
50 0
-10 20 -20
40
10 -40
30 -15
Feb-08

Feb-11

Feb-14

Feb-17
Aug-09

Aug-12

Aug-15

Aug-18
Nov-08

Nov-11

Nov-14

Nov-17
May-07

May-10

May-13

May-16

May-19
Feb-08

Aug-09

Feb-11

Feb-14

Aug-15

Feb-17
Nov-08

Nov-11

Aug-12

Nov-14

May-16

Nov-17

Aug-18
May-07

May-10

May-13

May-19

Source: BNM, RHB Source: BNM, RHB

Figure 11: Net financing growth drivers Figure 12: Annual growth in loans and corporate bonds
(%) Loans (%) Corp Bonds (%) Net Financing (% YoY) (MYR'bn) Net Change in Loans Net Chg in Corp Bonds
14.0
180
Dec 16: +5.55%
12.0 Dec 17: +6.43% 160
Dec 18: +5.82%
10.0 140 25 32 47
39
120
8.0 45
4.92% 100 29 75
6.0
80

4.0 60 127 122


115 113
40 84 88
2.0 63
Jan-11

Jan-12

Jan-13

Jan-14

Jan-15

Jan-16

Jan-17

Jan-18

Jan-19
Sep-16
Sep-11

Sep-12

Sep-13

Sep-14

Sep-15

May-16

Sep-17

Sep-18
May-11

May-12

May-13

May-14

May-15

May-17

May-18

May-19

20

-
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Source: BNM, RHB Source: BNM, RHB

See important disclosures at the end of this report


3
Market Dateline / PP 19489/05/2019 (035080)
Banks Malaysia Sector Update
1 October 2019 Financial Services | Banks

System Lending Indicators


Figure 13: System lending indicators
2018 2019 Aug 2018 July 2019 Aug 2019
(MYRbn) Jan-Aug Jan-Aug % YoY 3MA 3MA 3MA % YoY % MoM
System
Loan applications 592.5 583.1 -1.6 78.0 74.4 75.3 -3.5 1.1
Loan approvals 260.1 273.8 5.3 34.9 37.3 36.0 3.2 -3.6
Loan disbursements 785.6 806.1 2.6 102.8 99.8 99.5 -3.2 -0.3

Business
Loan applications 261.4 261.7 0.1 33.0 32.4 34.1 3.5 5.1
Loan approvals 116.2 125.9 8.4 15.3 17.7 16.6 8.6 -6.6
Loan disbursements 559.8 576.9 3.1 74.3 71.6 71.3 -4.1 -0.5

Household
Loan applications 331.1 321.4 -2.9 45.0 42.0 41.2 -8.6 -2.0
Loan approvals 143.9 148.0 2.8 19.6 19.6 19.4 -1.1 -0.9
Loan disbursements 225.8 229.2 1.5 28.5 28.2 28.3 -0.8 0.1

Note: 3-month moving average (3MA)


Source: BNM, RHB

Figure 14: System loan applications* Figure 15: System loan approvals*
(MYRbn) Applications-3mth moving ave (MYRbn) % YoY (%) (MYRbn) Approvals-3mth moving ave (MYRbn) % YoY (%)
90 50 40 40

80 40 30
35
70 30 20
3.2%
30
60 20 10

50 -3.5% 10 25 0

40 0 -10
20
30 -10 -20
15
20 -20 -30

10 -30 10 -40
Jul-10

Jun-13
Mar-08

Jan-14

Mar-15

Jul-17
Feb-11

Dec-16

Feb-18
Aug-07

Dec-09

Sep-11

Nov-12

Aug-14

Sep-18
Oct-08
May-09

Apr-12

Oct-15
May-16

Apr-19
Jul-10

Jul-17
Mar-08

Jun-13
Jan-14
Feb-11

Apr-12

Apr-19
Aug-14
Mar-15

Feb-18
Aug-07

Dec-09

Sep-11

Nov-12

Dec-16

Sep-18
Oct-08
May-09

Oct-15
May-16

Note: *Based on 3MA Note: *Based on 3MA


Source: BNM, RHB Source: BNM, RHB

Figure 16: Business loans – lending indicators* Figure 17: Household loans – lending indicators *
(%) Business: 3M-MA Applications (% YoY) (%) (%) HH: 3M-MA Approvals (% YoY) (%)
60 Business: 3M-MA Approvals (% YoY) 18 60 HH: 3M-MA Applications (% YoY) 16
Business loans (% YoY) - RHS HH loans (% YoY) - RHS
16 50 14
40
14 40 12
20 12 30
10
10 20
8
0 10
8
6
0
-20 6
-10 4
4 4.6%
-40 -20 2
2
Aug 19: 2.9% YoY -30 0
-60 0
May-17
May-10

Jul-11

Jul-18
Mar-09

Jun-14
Jan-15
Feb-12

Mar-16

Feb-19
Aug-08

Oct-09

Dec-10

Sep-12

Nov-13

Aug-15

Dec-17
Oct-16
Apr-13
Jul-11

Jul-18
Feb-12

Feb-19
Aug-08

Sep-12

Aug-15
Oct-09
Mar-09

Jun-14
Jan-15

Mar-16
Oct-16

Dec-17
Dec-10

Nov-13
May-10

May-17
Apr-13

Note: *Based on 3MA Note: *Based on 3MA


Source: BNM, RHB Source: BNM, RHB

See important disclosures at the end of this report


4
Market Dateline / PP 19489/05/2019 (035080)
Banks Malaysia Sector Update
1 October 2019 Financial Services | Banks

Banking System Deposits Growth


Figure 18: System deposits growth vs CASA growth Figure 19: Deposits growth by holders
(%) Total Deposits YoY % CASA YoY % (%) Financial Institutions Businesses Individuals
20 30
25
15 20
15 2.8%
10 5.2% 10
5
5 0
-5 -0.1%
4.5%
0 -10
-15
-5 -20
Apr-07

Apr-08

Apr-09

Apr-10

Apr-11
Oct-11
Apr-12

Apr-13

Apr-14

Apr-15

Apr-16

Apr-17

Apr-18
Oct-18
Apr-19
Oct-07

Oct-08

Oct-09

Oct-10

Oct-12

Oct-13

Oct-14

Oct-15

Oct-16

Oct-17

Oct-09

Apr-13

Oct-16
May-17
Aug-08
Mar-09

May-10

Sep-12

Aug-15
Jul-11
Feb-12

Mar-16

Jul-18
Feb-19
Dec-10

Nov-13

Dec-17
Jan-08

Jun-14
Jan-15
Source: BNM, RHB Source: BNM, RHB

Figure 20: System LDR Figure 21: System liquidity coverage ratio
(MYRbn) Total Deposits LDR (%) (%) (LCR) HQLA (MYR'bn) - (RHS) LCR (%) (MYR'bn)
2,500 93 170% 650
152%
160%
2,000 88 600
89.2%
150%
1,500 83 140% 550

130% 500
1,000 78
120%
500 73 450
110%

- 68 100% 400
Sep-15

Sep-16

Sep-17

Sep-18
Jun-15

Mar-16
Jun-16

Jun-18

Jun-19
Dec-16
Mar-17
Jun-17

Mar-18

Dec-18
Mar-19
Dec-15

Dec-17
Jan-12
Jan-06

Jan-08

Jan-10

Jan-14

Jan-16

Jan-18
Sep-12
Sep-06

Sep-08

Sep-10

Sep-14

Sep-16

Sep-18
May-07

May-09

May-11

May-13

May-15

May-17

May-19

Source: BNM, RHB Source: BNM, RHB

Interest Rates And Capital Ratios


Figure 22: System average lending rate and interest spread Figure 23: System capital ratios
(%) OPR SRR ALR (%) Total Capital Tier-1 CET1
19
7.0 17.7%
18
6.0 17
4.82
5.0 16
15 14.4%
4.0 3.50
14
3.0 13
3.00
13.7%
2.0 12
11
1.0
10
- 9
Jan-05

Jan-06

Jan-07

Jan-08

Jan-09

Jan-10

Jan-11

Jan-12

Jan-13

Jan-14

Jan-15

Jan-16

Jan-17

Jan-18

Jan-19

Jun-07

Jun-08

Jun-09

Jun-10

Jun-11

Jun-12

Jun-13

Jun-14

Jun-15

Jun-16

Jun-17

Jun-18

Jun-19
Dec-06

Dec-07

Dec-08

Dec-09

Dec-10

Dec-11

Dec-12

Dec-13

Dec-14

Dec-15

Dec-16

Dec-17

Dec-18

Source: BNM, RHB Source: BNM, RHB

See important disclosures at the end of this report


5
Market Dateline / PP 19489/05/2019 (035080)
Banks Malaysia Sector Update
1 October 2019 Financial Services | Banks

Banking System Asset Quality


Figure 24: System GIL Figure 25: System GIL ratio vs LLC ratio
(MYRbn) Business GILs (MYRbn) Household GILs (RMbn) (%) (%) (%)
LLC (%) - LHS GIL ratio (%)
30.0 GIL ratio (%) 2.1 105 3.5

2.0 100
25.0 3.0
1.9 95
20.0
90 2.5
1.8 90.3%
15.0
1.7 85 2.0
10.0 1.61% 1.61%
1.6 80
1.5
5.0 1.5 75

0.0 1.4 70 1.0

Jul-13

Jul-18
Feb-13

Feb-18
Jan-11
Jun-11

Mar-15

Jan-16
Jun-16
Nov-11

Dec-13

Nov-16

Sep-17

Dec-18
Sep-12

Oct-14

Aug-15
Apr-12

May-14

Apr-17

May-19
Jul-15
Apr-13
Jul-13

Apr-14
Jul-14
Oct-14

Apr-15

Apr-16
Jul-16

Apr-17
Jul-17

Apr-18
Jul-18

Apr-19
Jul-19
Oct-13

Oct-15

Oct-16

Oct-17

Oct-18
Jan-13

Jan-14

Jan-15

Jan-16

Jan-17

Jan-18

Jan-19

Source: BNM, RHB Source: BNM, RHB

Figure 26: GIL – household Figure 27: GIL – business


(MYRbn) (%) (MYRbn) Business GILs (MYRbn) (%) (%)
Household GILs (MYRbn) Household GIL ratio (%)
11.0 1.5 18.0 3.0

10.5
1.4 17.0 2.8
10.0
1.3 16.0 2.6
9.5

9.0 1.2 15.0 2.40% 2.4

8.5
1.1 14.0 2.2
8.0
1.0 13.0 2.0
7.5
1.04%
7.0 0.9 12.0 1.8
Jan-13

Jul-13

Jan-14

Jul-14

Jan-15

Jan-16
Jul-15

Jul-16

Jan-17

Jul-17

Jan-18

Jul-18

Jan-19

Jul-19
Apr-13

Apr-18
Oct-13

Apr-14

Oct-14

Apr-15

Oct-15

Apr-16

Oct-16

Apr-17

Oct-17

Oct-18

Apr-19

Jul-13

Jul-14

Jul-15

Jul-16

Jul-17

Jul-18

Jul-19
Jan-13

Jan-14

Jan-15

Jan-16

Jan-17

Jan-18

Jan-19
Oct-13

Apr-14

Oct-14

Oct-15

Oct-16

Oct-17

Oct-18
Apr-13

Apr-15

Apr-16

Apr-17

Apr-18

Apr-19
Source: BNM, RHB Source: BNM, RHB

Figure 28: GIL – construction Figure 29: GIL – non-residential property


(MYR'bn) (%) (MYR'bn) Non-residential prop GIL (MYR) (%)
4.5 Construction GIL (MYR) Construction GIL (%) - (RHS) 9.0 3.5 Non-residential prop GIL (%) - (RHS) 1.42% 1.5
8.5 1.4
4.0 3.0
8.0 1.3
3.5 7.5 1.2
2.5
7.0 1.1
3.0
6.5 2.0 1.0
2.5 6.0 0.9
6.40% 1.5
0.8
2.0 5.5
0.7
5.0 1.0
1.5 0.6
4.5
0.5 0.5
1.0 4.0
Jan-14
Jun-14

Jul-16
Dec-11

Mar-13

Mar-18

Jan-19
Jun-19
Nov-14

Feb-16

Dec-16

Nov-19
May-12

Aug-13

Sep-15

Aug-18
Oct-12

Apr-15

May-17
Oct-17
Dec-11

Dec-12

Dec-13

Dec-14

Dec-15
Apr-12

Aug-16
Dec-16

Dec-17

Dec-18

Dec-19
Aug-12

Aug-13

Aug-14

Aug-15

Aug-17

Apr-18
Aug-18

Aug-19
Apr-13

Apr-14

Apr-15

Apr-16

Apr-17

Apr-19

Source: BNM, RHB Source: BNM, RHB

See important disclosures at the end of this report


6
Market Dateline / PP 19489/05/2019 (035080)
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RHBSHK hereby certifies that no part of RHBSHK analyst compensation was, is or will
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RHBHK had an investment banking services client relationships during the past 12
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KUALA LUMPUR JAKARTA


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