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System GILs crept up by 1.2% MoM in July (June: +1.7%), driven mainly by 10
15.3% MoM jump in GIL, albeit from a very low base. Household GIL edged 4
2
up 0.5% MoM but the GIL ratio remained unchanged MoM at 1.04%. GIL
-
ratios for manufacturing and construction further deteriorated by 27bps to
Mar-11
Jan-12
Jun-12
Jul-14
Mar-16
Jan-17
Jun-17
Jul-19
Dec-09
Nov-12
Feb-14
Dec-14
Nov-17
Aug-11
Feb-19
May-10
Oct-10
Apr-13
Sep-13
May-15
Oct-15
Aug-16
Apr-18
Sep-18
3.43% and 2bps MoM to 2.73%. In mitigation, GILs from the financial services
sector declined 3.4% MoM. System GIL ratio saw a mild 1bp uptick to 1.61%.
Source: Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM)
Average lending rate (ALR) was unchanged MoM at 4.82% in August, as
deposit asset repricing approaches an end, following the 25bps overnight
policy rate (OPR) cut in May while fixed deposit rates were largely steady at
3.09%. The 10-year Malaysian Government Securities yield compressed by
28bps MoM, signalling investor expectations of further relaxation in monetary
policy.
Gross funds raised remained robust. Gross funds raised totalled
MYR93.9bn in Jan-Aug 2019 (+35% YoY), mainly on strong bond financing
issuance in May.
Jul-18
Jul-06
Jul-07
Jul-08
Jul-09
Jul-10
Jul-12
Jul-13
Jul-14
Jul-15
Jul-16
Jul-17
Jan-06
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jan-09
Jan-10
Jan-11
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jan-14
Jan-15
Jan-16
Jan-17
Jan-18
Jan-19
Dec-06
Aug-07
Dec-08
Aug-09
Dec-10
Aug-11
Dec-12
Aug-13
Dec-14
Aug-15
Dec-16
Aug-17
Dec-18
Aug-19
Apr-06
Apr-08
Apr-10
Apr-12
Apr-14
Apr-16
Apr-18
-4%
Figure 5: Property loan growth – residential vs non- Figure 6: Construction loan growth
residential
(%) Residential prop - YoY % Non-resi property - YoY % (MYR'bn) Construction YoY % (%)
25 System loans - YoY % 105 25
95
20
20 85
75 15
15 9.1%
65
10
55
10
7.1%
45 5
5 35
0
25
2.2%
0 15 -5
Nov-08
Nov-07
Nov-09
Nov-10
Nov-11
Nov-12
Nov-13
Nov-14
Nov-15
Nov-16
Nov-17
Nov-18
May-10
May-14
May-07
May-08
May-09
May-11
May-12
May-13
May-15
May-16
May-17
May-18
May-19
Feb-08
Nov-08
Feb-11
Nov-11
Feb-14
Nov-14
Feb-17
Nov-17
Aug-09
Aug-12
Aug-15
Aug-18
May-07
May-10
May-13
May-16
May-19
Figure 7: Wholesale & retail and hotels & restaurants loan Figure 8: Finance, insurance & business activities loan
growth growth
(MYRbn) Wholesale & retail trade, and hotels & restaurants (%) (MYRbn) Finance, insurance and business activities YoY % (%)
150 YoY % 20 130 35
120 30
130 15 110 25
100 20
110 10
90 15
90 5 80 10
6.5%
70 5
70 0 60 0
50 -0.1% -5
50 -5
40 -10
30 -10 30 -15
Feb-08
Feb-11
Feb-14
Feb-17
Aug-09
Aug-12
Aug-15
Aug-18
Nov-08
Nov-11
Nov-14
Nov-17
May-07
May-10
May-13
May-16
May-19
Feb-08
Feb-11
Nov-11
Feb-14
Feb-17
Aug-18
Nov-08
Aug-09
Aug-12
Nov-14
Aug-15
Nov-17
May-07
May-10
May-13
May-16
May-19
Source: BNM, RHB Source: BNM, RHB
Figure 9: Manufacturing loan growth Figure 10: Purchase of securities loan growth
(MYRbn) Manufacturing YoY % (%) (MYR'bn) Purchase of securities YoY % (%)
120 20 90 140
110 80 120
15
100 70 100
10
90 80
60
80 6.3% 5 60
50
70 40
0
40
60 5.4% 20
-5 30
50 0
-10 20 -20
40
10 -40
30 -15
Feb-08
Feb-11
Feb-14
Feb-17
Aug-09
Aug-12
Aug-15
Aug-18
Nov-08
Nov-11
Nov-14
Nov-17
May-07
May-10
May-13
May-16
May-19
Feb-08
Aug-09
Feb-11
Feb-14
Aug-15
Feb-17
Nov-08
Nov-11
Aug-12
Nov-14
May-16
Nov-17
Aug-18
May-07
May-10
May-13
May-19
Figure 11: Net financing growth drivers Figure 12: Annual growth in loans and corporate bonds
(%) Loans (%) Corp Bonds (%) Net Financing (% YoY) (MYR'bn) Net Change in Loans Net Chg in Corp Bonds
14.0
180
Dec 16: +5.55%
12.0 Dec 17: +6.43% 160
Dec 18: +5.82%
10.0 140 25 32 47
39
120
8.0 45
4.92% 100 29 75
6.0
80
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jan-14
Jan-15
Jan-16
Jan-17
Jan-18
Jan-19
Sep-16
Sep-11
Sep-12
Sep-13
Sep-14
Sep-15
May-16
Sep-17
Sep-18
May-11
May-12
May-13
May-14
May-15
May-17
May-18
May-19
20
-
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Business
Loan applications 261.4 261.7 0.1 33.0 32.4 34.1 3.5 5.1
Loan approvals 116.2 125.9 8.4 15.3 17.7 16.6 8.6 -6.6
Loan disbursements 559.8 576.9 3.1 74.3 71.6 71.3 -4.1 -0.5
Household
Loan applications 331.1 321.4 -2.9 45.0 42.0 41.2 -8.6 -2.0
Loan approvals 143.9 148.0 2.8 19.6 19.6 19.4 -1.1 -0.9
Loan disbursements 225.8 229.2 1.5 28.5 28.2 28.3 -0.8 0.1
Figure 14: System loan applications* Figure 15: System loan approvals*
(MYRbn) Applications-3mth moving ave (MYRbn) % YoY (%) (MYRbn) Approvals-3mth moving ave (MYRbn) % YoY (%)
90 50 40 40
80 40 30
35
70 30 20
3.2%
30
60 20 10
50 -3.5% 10 25 0
40 0 -10
20
30 -10 -20
15
20 -20 -30
10 -30 10 -40
Jul-10
Jun-13
Mar-08
Jan-14
Mar-15
Jul-17
Feb-11
Dec-16
Feb-18
Aug-07
Dec-09
Sep-11
Nov-12
Aug-14
Sep-18
Oct-08
May-09
Apr-12
Oct-15
May-16
Apr-19
Jul-10
Jul-17
Mar-08
Jun-13
Jan-14
Feb-11
Apr-12
Apr-19
Aug-14
Mar-15
Feb-18
Aug-07
Dec-09
Sep-11
Nov-12
Dec-16
Sep-18
Oct-08
May-09
Oct-15
May-16
Figure 16: Business loans – lending indicators* Figure 17: Household loans – lending indicators *
(%) Business: 3M-MA Applications (% YoY) (%) (%) HH: 3M-MA Approvals (% YoY) (%)
60 Business: 3M-MA Approvals (% YoY) 18 60 HH: 3M-MA Applications (% YoY) 16
Business loans (% YoY) - RHS HH loans (% YoY) - RHS
16 50 14
40
14 40 12
20 12 30
10
10 20
8
0 10
8
6
0
-20 6
-10 4
4 4.6%
-40 -20 2
2
Aug 19: 2.9% YoY -30 0
-60 0
May-17
May-10
Jul-11
Jul-18
Mar-09
Jun-14
Jan-15
Feb-12
Mar-16
Feb-19
Aug-08
Oct-09
Dec-10
Sep-12
Nov-13
Aug-15
Dec-17
Oct-16
Apr-13
Jul-11
Jul-18
Feb-12
Feb-19
Aug-08
Sep-12
Aug-15
Oct-09
Mar-09
Jun-14
Jan-15
Mar-16
Oct-16
Dec-17
Dec-10
Nov-13
May-10
May-17
Apr-13
Apr-08
Apr-09
Apr-10
Apr-11
Oct-11
Apr-12
Apr-13
Apr-14
Apr-15
Apr-16
Apr-17
Apr-18
Oct-18
Apr-19
Oct-07
Oct-08
Oct-09
Oct-10
Oct-12
Oct-13
Oct-14
Oct-15
Oct-16
Oct-17
Oct-09
Apr-13
Oct-16
May-17
Aug-08
Mar-09
May-10
Sep-12
Aug-15
Jul-11
Feb-12
Mar-16
Jul-18
Feb-19
Dec-10
Nov-13
Dec-17
Jan-08
Jun-14
Jan-15
Source: BNM, RHB Source: BNM, RHB
Figure 20: System LDR Figure 21: System liquidity coverage ratio
(MYRbn) Total Deposits LDR (%) (%) (LCR) HQLA (MYR'bn) - (RHS) LCR (%) (MYR'bn)
2,500 93 170% 650
152%
160%
2,000 88 600
89.2%
150%
1,500 83 140% 550
130% 500
1,000 78
120%
500 73 450
110%
- 68 100% 400
Sep-15
Sep-16
Sep-17
Sep-18
Jun-15
Mar-16
Jun-16
Jun-18
Jun-19
Dec-16
Mar-17
Jun-17
Mar-18
Dec-18
Mar-19
Dec-15
Dec-17
Jan-12
Jan-06
Jan-08
Jan-10
Jan-14
Jan-16
Jan-18
Sep-12
Sep-06
Sep-08
Sep-10
Sep-14
Sep-16
Sep-18
May-07
May-09
May-11
May-13
May-15
May-17
May-19
Jan-06
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jan-09
Jan-10
Jan-11
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jan-14
Jan-15
Jan-16
Jan-17
Jan-18
Jan-19
Jun-07
Jun-08
Jun-09
Jun-10
Jun-11
Jun-12
Jun-13
Jun-14
Jun-15
Jun-16
Jun-17
Jun-18
Jun-19
Dec-06
Dec-07
Dec-08
Dec-09
Dec-10
Dec-11
Dec-12
Dec-13
Dec-14
Dec-15
Dec-16
Dec-17
Dec-18
2.0 100
25.0 3.0
1.9 95
20.0
90 2.5
1.8 90.3%
15.0
1.7 85 2.0
10.0 1.61% 1.61%
1.6 80
1.5
5.0 1.5 75
Jul-13
Jul-18
Feb-13
Feb-18
Jan-11
Jun-11
Mar-15
Jan-16
Jun-16
Nov-11
Dec-13
Nov-16
Sep-17
Dec-18
Sep-12
Oct-14
Aug-15
Apr-12
May-14
Apr-17
May-19
Jul-15
Apr-13
Jul-13
Apr-14
Jul-14
Oct-14
Apr-15
Apr-16
Jul-16
Apr-17
Jul-17
Apr-18
Jul-18
Apr-19
Jul-19
Oct-13
Oct-15
Oct-16
Oct-17
Oct-18
Jan-13
Jan-14
Jan-15
Jan-16
Jan-17
Jan-18
Jan-19
10.5
1.4 17.0 2.8
10.0
1.3 16.0 2.6
9.5
8.5
1.1 14.0 2.2
8.0
1.0 13.0 2.0
7.5
1.04%
7.0 0.9 12.0 1.8
Jan-13
Jul-13
Jan-14
Jul-14
Jan-15
Jan-16
Jul-15
Jul-16
Jan-17
Jul-17
Jan-18
Jul-18
Jan-19
Jul-19
Apr-13
Apr-18
Oct-13
Apr-14
Oct-14
Apr-15
Oct-15
Apr-16
Oct-16
Apr-17
Oct-17
Oct-18
Apr-19
Jul-13
Jul-14
Jul-15
Jul-16
Jul-17
Jul-18
Jul-19
Jan-13
Jan-14
Jan-15
Jan-16
Jan-17
Jan-18
Jan-19
Oct-13
Apr-14
Oct-14
Oct-15
Oct-16
Oct-17
Oct-18
Apr-13
Apr-15
Apr-16
Apr-17
Apr-18
Apr-19
Source: BNM, RHB Source: BNM, RHB
Jul-16
Dec-11
Mar-13
Mar-18
Jan-19
Jun-19
Nov-14
Feb-16
Dec-16
Nov-19
May-12
Aug-13
Sep-15
Aug-18
Oct-12
Apr-15
May-17
Oct-17
Dec-11
Dec-12
Dec-13
Dec-14
Dec-15
Apr-12
Aug-16
Dec-16
Dec-17
Dec-18
Dec-19
Aug-12
Aug-13
Aug-14
Aug-15
Aug-17
Apr-18
Aug-18
Aug-19
Apr-13
Apr-14
Apr-15
Apr-16
Apr-17
Apr-19
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