TRIBHUVAN UNIVERSITY

KHWOPA COLLEGE OF ENGINEERING

(An undertaking of Bhaktapur Municipality)
Libali-8, Bhaktapur

A
Report on
Seismic Hazard Map of Nepal with Topographic Influence

Team: TerraQuake Visionaries

Group members: Submitted to:

Prabesh Shrestha (076BCE) CESS, Nepal
Rohan Maharjan (076BCE)
Shreeya Nyaichyai (077BCE)
Sura Prajapati (077BCE)
Deepika Pandey (078BCE)
Jeebash Giri (078BCE)
Abstract

Nepal's susceptibility to catastrophic earthquakes, stemming from the convergence of the India
and Eurasia tectonic plates, necessitates a comprehensive understanding of seismic hazards. Past
seismic events in the Himalayan region have resulted in devastating consequences, emphasizing
the urgency of proactive measures to mitigate risks. This model underscores the critical role of
seismic hazard mapping, particularly with an emphasis on integrating topographic influences.
The study addresses the challenges posed by weak building codes, inadequate infrastructure
resilience, and unplanned urban development in high-risk zones. By acknowledging the
amplifying effects of local topography on seismic shaking, the model aims to provide valuable
insights for resilient land-use planning, building practices, and emergency preparedness.
The integration of topographic considerations into seismic hazard maps not only aids in risk
assessment but also guides infrastructure design to withstand seismic forces. Through a
multidisciplinary approach, the model contributes to informed decision-making processes that
foster overall community resilience. The outcomes of this project are expected to inform policy
development, enhance emergency preparedness measures, and promote public awareness,
ultimately minimizing the societal and economic impact of earthquakes in Nepal. The project
highlights the indispensable role of seismic hazard maps in orchestrating a holistic and effective
response to seismic threats, safeguarding both property and lives.

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 Table of Contents

Abstract............................................................................................................................................2
Table of Contents.............................................................................................................................3
List of Tables...................................................................................................................................4
List of Figures..................................................................................................................................5
1. Introduction..............................................................................................................................6
2. Objectives................................................................................................................................8
3. Literature Review....................................................................................................................8
4. Methodology............................................................................................................................9
4.1. Developing a comprehensive 3D model of Nepal............................................................9
4.2. Generating a Seismic Hazard Map for Nepal through Probabilistic Seismic Hazard
Analysis (PSHA) and projecting it onto the model.....................................................................9
4.2.1. Data collection for PSHA..........................................................................................9
4.2.2. Map plotting and importing earthquake data points in ArcGIS.................................9
4.2.3. Geospatial zoning of Nepal to create areal source from earthquake data points.....10
4.2.4. Exclusion of Aftershocks.........................................................................................10
4.2.5. Removal of earthquake data which do not follow Poisson's Distribution...............10
4.2.6. Evaluation of seismicity parameters........................................................................11
4.2.7. Attenuation of ground motions in R-Crisis.............................................................12
4.2.8. Hazard Map Generation in R-Crisis........................................................................13
4.3. Creating a model to visually depict the topographic amplification of seismic waves........14
5. Results....................................................................................................................................14
6. Discussion..............................................................................................................................15
7. Conclusion.............................................................................................................................18
8. Recommendations..................................................................................................................18
9. References..............................................................................................................................19
10. Appendix...............................................................................................................................20

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List of Tables

Table 1 Seismic Parameters of all Zones.......................................................................................12

Table 2: Coefficient for attenuation relations for rock site (after, Young's et al. 1997).................13
Table 3: USGS Earthquake sample data........................................................................................20
Table 4: Separated Mainshocks and Aftershocks..........................................................................23
Table 5: Completeness Analysis....................................................................................................26

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List of Figures

Figure 1: Schematic illustration of basic five steps in PSHA..........................................................7

Figure 2 Extracted Ground Points from Google Earth Figure 3 Generated DEM in GIS............9
Figure 4 Imported Map and Earthquake data in GIS.....................................................................10
Figure 5 Defined Areal Source Zones...........................................................................................10
Figure 6 Completeness Analysis: Maximum Curvature Method...................................................11
Figure 7: Seismic hazard map of PGA values for 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years....14
Figure 8: Seismic hazard map of spectral acceleration at 0.15s fundamental time period for 10%
probability of exceedance in 50 years...........................................................................................15

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1. Introduction

Utilizing Geographic Information System (GIS), this project aims to construct a comprehensive
3D model of Nepal, meticulously capturing its diverse topography, which includes mountains,
valleys, and plains. The integration of historical seismic data is central to the project's goal of
identifying seismic hotspots, assessing seismic risk, and raising awareness of potential hazards
across varied regions. The methodology involves developing a Digital Elevation Model (DEM)
and precise contour lines to establish the foundation for the 3D model. In addition, the study
incorporates considerations for topographic amplification of seismic waves, recognizing the
impact of terrain on the intensity of ground shaking.
To make seismic hazard map, Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) is applied.
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA) is a methodology crucial in seismology for
evaluating the probability of earthquake ground shaking at specific locations over a designated
time span. With PSHA, all possible earthquake events and resulting ground motions are
considered, along with their associated probabilities of occurrence, in order to find the level of
ground motion intensity exceeded with some tolerably low rate. At its most basic level, PSHA is
composed of five steps: -
i. Identify all earthquake sources capable of producing damaging ground motions.
ii. Characterize the distribution of earthquake magnitudes (the rates at which earthquakes of
various magnitudes are expected to occur).
iii. Characterize the distribution of source-to-site distances associated with potential
earthquakes.
iv. Predict the resulting distribution of ground motion intensity as a function of earthquake
magnitude, distance, etc.
v. Combine uncertainties in earthquake size, location and ground motion intensity, using a
calculation known as the total probability theorem.
From the above steps seismic hazard curves for individual source zones can be obtained and
combined to estimate the total hazard at a particular site. Let, Ns, Nr and Nm be the number of
sources in the region, different earthquake magnitudes and different source to site distances, the
total exceedance rate (Kramer, 2007) for the region can be estimated by,
❑ Ns Nr Nm

λ y = ∑ ∑ ∑ v i M P [ Y > y |m j ,r k ] P [ M =mj ] P [R =rk ]

¿
¿
min
i=1 j=1 k=1

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Figure 1: Schematic illustration of basic five steps in PSHA. (a) Identify earthquake sources. (b)
Characterize the distribution of earthquake magnitudes from each source. (c) Characterize the
distribution of source-to-site distance from each source. (d) Predict the resulting distribution of
ground motion intensity. (e) Combine information from parts a-d to compute the annual rate of
exceeding a given ground motion intensity.
PSHA not only aids in risk assessment but also provides vital insights for infrastructure design,
evacuation planning, and land use regulation, considering the potential amplification of seismic
waves due to the landscape. Through this multidisciplinary approach, the model not only
contributes to informed decision-making in disaster management but also guides the
development of resilient infrastructure capable of withstanding seismic forces and their amplified

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effects. Anticipated outcomes encompass informing policy development, refining emergency
preparedness measures, and promoting public awareness, ultimately minimizing the societal and
economic impact of earthquakes in Nepal. The project emphasizes the pivotal role of seismic
hazard maps, incorporating topographic amplification considerations.

Topographic Effects:

2. Objectives

 To create a comprehensive 3D model of Nepal using Geographic Information System

(GIS) and highlight the diverse topography of Nepal, showcasing its mountains,
valleys, and plains.
 To create a seismic hazard map of Nepal integrating historical seismic data using
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) to raise awareness about potential
risks.
 To demonstrate the influence of seismic waves on the topography, particularly the
differential effects on a hill's crest and base.

3. Literature Review

 Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment of Sankhuwasabha district by Sanjog Shakya

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  Seismic zonation of Nepal using probabilistic seismic hazard analysis Hari Ram Parajuli
& Bikram Bhusal & Satish Paudel
 Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of Nepal using multiple seismic source models
Md Moklesur Rahman and Ling Bai
 On the role of topographic amplification in seismic slope instabilities Fardin Jafarzadeh*,
Mohammad Mahdi Shahrabi, Hadi Farahi Jahromi
 earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes
 Nepal Building Code 105:2020

4. Methodology

4.1. Developing a comprehensive 3D model of Nepal

The process of making the 3D model began by first creating a Digital Elevation Model (DEM) of
Nepal in ArcGIS. This was done by extracting ground points from Google Earth as shown in the
figure and importing them into ArcGIS. Subsequently, the DEM was utilized to produce precise
contour lines. These contour lines then served as the foundation for constructing the detailed 3D
representation of the landscape.

Figure 2 Extracted Ground Points from Google Earth Figure 3 Generated DEM in GIS

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4.2. Generating a Seismic Hazard Map for Nepal through Probabilistic Seismic Hazard
Analysis (PSHA) and projecting it onto the model
4.2.1. Data collection for PSHA
Earthquake data of past 110 years (from 1913 AD to 2023 AD) was systematically retrieved from
the United States Geological Survey (USGS) website. A rectangular boundary encompassing the
geographical area of Nepal was defined on the world map to ensure comprehensive coverage of
relevant seismic events. All seismic occurrences within this delineated boundary were extracted
from the USGS database (Table 2). This dataset serves as the data source for the PSHA.
4.2.2. Map plotting and importing earthquake data points in ArcGIS
The shape file of the map of Nepal was downloaded from the website:
https://opendatanepal.com/dataset/new-political-and-administrative-boundaries-shapefile-of-
nepal. Then, the downloaded map and the earthquake data points were imported in ArcGIS for
further analysis.

Figure 4 Imported Map and Earthquake data in GIS

4.2.3. Geospatial zoning of Nepal to create areal source from earthquake data points
Thirty distinct zones were delineated to cover the country and neighboring regions. These zones,
defined based on geographical and seismic considerations, aimed to comprehensively capture
potential seismic influences. Subsequently, earthquake data beyond these zones were filtered to
focus solely on relevant seismic events. This refined dataset formed the foundation for
conducting the PSHA.

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 Figure 5 Defined Areal Source Zones
4.2.4. Exclusion of Aftershocks
Earthquake data points within designated zones were imported from ArcGIS to MS Excel.
Mainshocks and aftershocks were differentiated, and the Gardner and Knopoff (1974)
Declustering Method was applied to exclude all aftershocks within these zones (Table 3).
4.2.5. Removal of earthquake data which do not follow Poisson's Distribution
Completeness Analysis (Kijko and Smit 2012) was used to remove the earthquake data which do
not follow Poisson's distribution (Table 4). For this, Maximum Curvature Approach was used by
plotting Magnitude vs Log of exceedence graph as shown in fig. From this, the minimum
magnitude of completeness was found to be 4.3 as maximum curvature is seen in this point in the
graph. Earthquake data of each zone is exported from ArcGIS to MS Excel and then the points
having magnitude less than 4.3 are removed and the remaining data is taken for further analysis.

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 Figure 6 Completeness Analysis: Maximum Curvature Method

4.2.6. Evaluation of seismicity parameters

The distribution of earthquake size in a given period of time is expressed by Guttenberg Richter
Recurrence Law (1997). The recurrence specifies average rate of exceedance of magnitude of
earthquake for each source. Gutenberg Richter law for earthquake recurrence is expressed as:
log λm = a - bm
Where λm is the mean annual rate of exceedance of magnitude M. 10 a is the mean yearly number
of earthquakes of magnitude greater than zero, and b is a constant describing relative likelihood
of large and small magnitude earthquakes.

Table 1 Seismic Parameters of all Zones

Zone Maximum sigma Minimum lambda B sigma beta no. of

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 magnitude m Magnitude b EQs
2 6.50 0.142 4.0 0.128 0.571 0.349 1.315 16
3 6.20 0.142 4.0 0.225 0.768 0.349 1.769 25
4 6.30 0.142 4.0 0.200 0.667 0.349 1.536 23
6 5.50 0.142 4.0 0.069 0.464 0.349 1.069 7
7 5.60 0.142 4.0 0.114 0.981 0.349 2.258 14
8 5.97 0.142 4.0 0.367 0.853 0.349 1.965 35
9 5.70 0.142 4.0 0.216 1.047 0.349 2.411 24
10 5.50 0.142 4.0 0.029 0.398 0.349 0.916 3
11 6.96 0.142 4.0 0.742 0.710 0.349 1.636 64
12 6.27 0.142 4.0 1.069 0.877 0.349 2.019 98
13 6.00 0.142 4.0 0.456 1.077 0.349 2.480 41
14 6.87 0.142 4.0 0.147 0.543 0.349 1.251 21
15 5.91 0.142 4.0 0.168 0.793 0.349 1.826 20
16 7.80 0.142 4.0 0.248 0.481 0.349 1.108 46
17 6.70 0.142 4.0 0.570 0.852 0.349 1.961 72
18 7.30 0.142 4.0 0.349 0.608 0.349 1.400 40
19 8.00 0.142 4.0 0.148 0.393 0.349 0.906 23
20 6.90 0.142 4.0 0.236 0.652 0.349 1.501 29
21 5.53 0.142 4.0 0.058 0.324 0.349 0.745 2
23 4.90 0.142 4.0 0.029 0.874 0.349 2.013 4
24 5.77 0.142 4.0 0.031 0.407 0.349 0.937 4
27 4.60 0.142 4.0 0.018 1.003 0.349 2.311 2
28 6.90 0.142 4.0 0.075 0.410 0.349 0.944 10
29 5.10 0.142 4.0 0.039 0.805 0.349 1.854 5
30 5.10 0.142 4.0 0.054 1.205 0.349 2.775 5

4.2.7. Attenuation of ground motions in R-Crisis

Seismic hazard estimation depends upon the attenuation relationship. An attenuation law is
usually an empirical relationship that defines the transfer of ground motion from the source to a
particular site as a function of magnitude of earthquake, source to site distance and geological
characteristics of the site or tectonic environment faulting mechanism and medium of earthquake
propagation.
Attenuation relationship is articulated as: Y = f (M, R, Pi), where Y is ground motion parameters
of interest, M is the magnitude of earthquake, R is the source to site distance and Pi is the source
path and local soil effect which may or may not be considered. Generally, with attenuation
relationship, uncertainty associated with the expression i.e. standard deviation is also specified.
These attenuation relationships are based on the regional values, hence there are many types of
attenuation relationships developed by researchers at different site conditions.
The attenuation relationships can be categorized into four groups:

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  Shallow crustal earthquake in active regions (Campbell 1997, Campbell and Bozorgnia
2003, Abrahamson and Silva 1997, Boore et al. 1997)
 Shallow crustal earthquakes in stable regions (Campbell 2003, Atkinson and Boore 1997)
 Subduction zones (Molas and Yamazaki (1995), (Youngs et al., 1997), (Atkinson &
Boore, 2008), (Zhao, et al., 2006)
 Extensional tectonic regimes (Spudich et al. 1997).
Most of the earthquakes occurring in Nepal are considered to be interface events due to
subduction of Indian plate beneath the Eurasian plate. Hence, in this project, attenuation
relationship suitable for subduction zone proposed by Youngs et al. (1997) is used.
For Rock Site:
ln(y)=0.2418+1.414M+C1+C2(10-M)3+C3ln (Rrup+1.7818e0.554M) +0.00607H+0.384ZT
Where, y is spectral acceleration in g, M is moment magnitude, R rup is closest distance to rupture
(km), H is depth (km) and ZT coefficient for source type which is 0 for interface event and 1 for
interslab event. For this project moment magnitude of 7, epicentral distance of 20km and depth
of 10km is used. The coefficients C1, C2, C3, C4 and C5 are given in the table.
Table 2: Coefficient for attenuation relations for rock site (after, Young's et al. 1997)
Period(s) C1 C2 C3 C4 C5
PGA 0.000 0.0000 -2.552 1.45 -0.10
0.08 1.275 0.0000 -2.707 1.45 -0.10
0.10 1.188 -0.0011 -2.655 1.45 -0.10
0.20 0.722 -0.0027 -2.528 1.45 -0.10
0.30 0.246 -0.0036 -2.454 1.45 -0.10
0.40 -0.115 -0.0043 -2.401 1.45 -0.10
0.50 -0.400 -0.0048 -2.360 1.45 -0.10
0.75 -1.149 -0.0057 -2.286 1.45 -0.10
1.00 -1.736 -0.0064 -2.234 1.45 -0.10
1.50 -2.634 -0.0073 -2.160 1.50 -0.10
2.00 -3.328 -0.0080 -2.107 1.55 -0.10
3.00 -4.511 -0.0089 -2.033 1.65 -0.10

4.2.8. Hazard Map Generation in R-Crisis

The integrated results i.e. Hazard curve and response spectrum are utilized to generate seismic
hazard maps for 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years (Return period of 475 years). These
maps visually represent the calculated probabilities of ground shaking intensity across the region,
providing a comprehensive overview of seismic hazard.
4.3. Creating a model to visually depict the topographic amplification of seismic waves
In the model illustrating topographic amplification of seismic waves, a hill structure with two
containers is constructed. Each container houses marbles. A roller mechanism at the base
facilitates horizontal movement, simulating the lateral shifts induced by earthquakes. Notably, as

14
the model experiences horizontal displacement, the marble positioned at the base of the hill
demonstrates relatively less movement compared to the marble situated at the summit. This
discrepancy in movement effectively illustrates the concept of topographic amplification, where
seismic waves generates varied ground motion intensities due to the influence of topographic
features of the landscape.
5. Results

This analysis produces different seismic hazard maps for PGA value and SA value at 0.15 s
fundamental time period for 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years, corresponding to 475
years return period. PGA seismic hazard map for the probability of exceedance of 10% in 50
years are shown in figure 7. Figure 8 shows the seismic hazard map for SA value at 0.15s
fundamental time period for 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years.

Figure 7: Seismic hazard map of PGA values for 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years

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Figure 8: Seismic hazard map of spectral acceleration at 0.15s fundamental time period for 10%
probability of exceedance in 50 years

6. Discussion

The PGA value for Kathmandu was found to be 0.39g in our analysis which is similar to that in
NBC 105:2020 (0.35g) and in research paper by Rahman M M et al. (0.47g). The spatial
variation of PGA values in figure 7 and figure 9 are also similar which further validates the
seismic hazard map of this project. The fundamental time period of 0.15s was taken to showcase
the spectral acceleration of 3 storey RC building which is common in Nepal. The fundamental
time period (T) of 3 storey RC building was calculated using formula given in the paper by
Shrestha, Ramila & Karanjit, Sudip. (2017). i.e.
T = 0.012 H1.134
Considering floor height = 3 m and 3 storey building, H= 3*3=9 m
T = 0.012*91.134
T = 0.15 sec.

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Figure 9: Seismic hazard map of PGA values for 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years
(Rahman M M et al.)

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Example of Topographic (Ridge) effect: -

Jajarkot Earthquake
On 3 November 2023, a moment magnitude (MW) 5.7 (Local Magnitude, ML6.4) earthquake
struck the western region of Nepal, one of the most powerful seismic events since 1505 in the
region. Even though the earthquake was of moderate magnitude, it caused significant damage to
several masonry buildings and caused slope failures in some regions.

Figure 10: Damage in Khalanga, Jajarkot area indicating ridge effect due to earthquake
Figure 10 shows that the Jajarkot Khalanga ridge was the focal point of major infrastructure
destruction, indicating the occurrence of topographic amplification. On the other hand, Kale
Gaun, which is located on the hill’s lower slope, sustained little damage from the earthquake. A
similar ridge effect was noted at Barekot, Limsa. (Subedi, KC, Sharma, Misra, & KC, 2024)

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Figure 11: An aerial photo showing damaged buildings concentrated in the ridge line near the
earthquake's epicenter in Nepal's Jajarkot district on Nov. 4. (Harihar Singh Rathor/AFP/Getty
Images)

7. Conclusion

Hence, 3D seismic hazard map of Nepal was prepared and topographic effect on ground motion
was demonstrated in our model project.
8. Recommendations

 Only areal sources from past earthquake data is utilized as earthquake source in this
project. Active fault sources such as Main Frontal Thrust (MFT) should also be used.
 Further study for incorporating topographic effect in PSHA should be done.

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9. References

Chamlagain, D., Niroula, G. P., Maskey, P. N., Bista, M. K., Tamrakar, M. R., Gautam, B. K., . . .
Acharya, I. P. (n.d.). PROBABILISTIC SEISMIC HAZARD ASSESSMENT OF NEPAL
FORREVISION OF NATIONAL BUILDING CODE(NBC)-105.
Rahman, M. M., & Bai, L. (2018). Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of Nepal using
multiple seismic source models. Earth and Planetary Physics.
Subedi, M., KC, R., Sharma, K., Misra, J., & KC, A. (2024). Reconnaissance of the Effects of
the MW5.7 (ML6.4) Jajarkot Nepal Earthquake of 3 November 2023, Post-Earthquake
Responses, and Associated Lessons to Be Learned. Geosciences.

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10. Appendix

Table 3: USGS Earthquake sample data.

Time Latitude Longitude Depth Magnitude

1913-03-06T11:04:00.800Z 30.201 81.929 15 6.5
1916-08-28T06:39:41.360Z 29.67 80.684 20 6.96
1916-10-14T19:47:21.620Z 29.45 80.623 15 5.82
1916-12-24T07:53:22.420Z 29.527 80.671 15 5.93
1918-11-29T10:41:47.590Z 28.558 81.883 15 6.19
1926-07-27T07:23:48.080Z 29.598 80.826 15 5.73
1927-10-08T10:34:36.810Z 29.662 80.686 15 5.77
1931-06-18T12:58:33.370Z 30.166 83.942 15 5.97
1934-01-15T08:43:25.820Z 27.275 86.941 15 8
1935-03-05T22:15:56.510Z 29.822 80.371 15 6.04
1935-03-15T10:33:55.740Z 29.621 79.672 15 5.53
1936-02-11T04:47:40.620Z 28.263 86.73 15 5.86
1936-05-27T06:19:14.800Z 28.378 83.32 15 6.87
1936-09-07T02:30:53.930Z 27.901 86.263 15 5.67
1937-04-30T19:32:59.720Z 29.784 81.436 15 5.97
1937-04-30T20:03:30.130Z 29.652 81.237 15 5.68
1937-12-20T04:59:41.120Z 29.378 80.742 15 5.44
1938-01-29T04:13:10.790Z 27.603 87.098 15 5.79
1945-06-04T12:08:59.980Z 30.271 80.118 15 6.37
1945-09-19T10:41:02.780Z 29.168 83.145 25 5.78
1951-05-28T15:59:23.720Z 28.925 86.685 15 5.97
1952-11-19T10:23:32.010Z 29.682 86.506 15 5.84
1953-02-23T00:46:10.840Z 29.529 81.382 10 5.82
1953-08-29T01:58:29.180Z 28.168 82.333 15 5.77
1954-09-04T06:43:49.430Z 28.169 83.825 15 5.91

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1955-08-04T06:40:49.510Z 30.675 86.43 15 5.69
1957-04-14T07:11:57.950Z 30.521 84.348 15 6.43
1958-01-23T05:30:13.410Z 30.622 84.133 15 5.47
1958-10-28T10:46:33.740Z 30.472 84.553 15 6.3
1958-11-03T14:31:39.320Z 30.44 84.54 15 5.55
1958-12-28T05:34:40.950Z 29.926 79.9 15 6.06
1960-03-05T11:25:07.620Z 29.411 81.158 25 5.67
1964-05-24T00:00:49.390Z 30.069 82.174 15 5.32
1964-08-30T02:35:07.110Z 27.386 88.304 10 5.35
1964-09-26T00:46:01.270Z 29.829 80.474 25 5.9
1964-10-06T20:19:33.920Z 29.287 80.909 15 5.4
1965-01-12T13:32:25.380Z 27.357 87.867 20 5.9
Time Latitude Longitude Depth Magnitude
1965-01-12T13:55:19.660Z 27.407 87.735 15 5.45
1965-03-18T02:41:27.160Z 29.732 80.365 15 5.4
1965-05-13T10:51:15.560Z 29.8 80.271 15 5.21
1965-06-01T07:52:25.440Z 28.486 83.041 15 5.45
1966-06-27T10:41:09.050Z 29.504 80.845 25.9 6
1966-06-27T10:47:43.020Z 29.615 81.189 15 5.48
1966-06-27T10:49:49.090Z 29.543 80.915 25 5.71
1966-06-27T10:59:19.790Z 29.706 80.935 25 6.27
1966-06-27T11:21:42.400Z 29.567 80.852 15 5.47
1966-06-27T13:55:50.220Z 29.61 80.805 12.5 5.49
1966-11-05T18:53:02.900Z 28.252 83.798 15 5.23
1966-12-16T20:52:18.010Z 29.535 80.823 20 5.7
1966-12-18T22:42:38.590Z 29.599 80.805 15 5.15
1966-12-21T22:11:00.000Z 29.639 80.801 15 5.48
1967-12-18T10:51:33.800Z 29.303 81.793 15 5.31
1968-05-27T18:35:58.070Z 29.818 80.61 15 5.33

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1969-03-03T06:20:22.160Z 30.076 79.97 16 5.32
1970-02-12T01:51:48.800Z 29.276 81.648 15.2 5.4
1970-02-26T19:30:06.160Z 27.653 85.914 10 5.41
1970-07-21T15:37:43.570Z 27.977 84.76 15 5.24
1971-05-03T00:33:23.940Z 30.739 84.443 10 5.5
1972-02-04T14:08:22.930Z 30.338 84.454 15 5.28
1972-03-15T06:00:32.780Z 30.579 84.387 15 5.35
1972-08-21T14:04:33.600Z 27.375 87.999 15 5.12
1973-03-22T01:06:57.200Z 28.135 86.993 33 5.2
1973-04-04T17:53:08.200Z 30.485 83.68 48 4.8
1973-10-16T09:50:43.300Z 28.219 82.945 33 5.2
1974-03-13T06:47:52.000Z 29.251 81.569 65 4.5
1974-03-24T14:16:03.100Z 27.727 86.11 33 5.7
1974-03-24T16:17:39.600Z 27.594 86.021 33 4.8
1974-05-06T01:07:00.600Z 29.325 81.652 33 4.5
1974-09-27T05:26:39.400Z 28.596 85.496 70 5.6
1974-12-23T09:45:42.800Z 29.412 81.393 45 5.2
1975-01-23T01:37:42.900Z 27.314 88.255 33 4.8
1975-01-31T12:38:52.400Z 28.1 84.729 33 5.4
1975-02-06T06:39:44.600Z 27.891 87.826 33 4.7
1975-04-09T03:28:28.600Z 30.41 84.889 33 4.9
1975-04-24T01:35:51.300Z 27.238 86.902 33 5.1
1975-06-24T15:38:27.800Z 27.473 87.294 33 5.2
1975-09-06T04:44:35.700Z 29.283 82.161 33 5.1
Time Latitude Longitude Depth Magnitude
1975-09-27T19:46:39.400Z 30.413 85.64 33 4.3
1975-10-24T17:44:15.300Z 26.848 86.293 33 4.2
1975-11-21T13:49:29.820Z 26.925 86.514 15 5.19
1975-11-26T15:02:32.900Z 28.343 87.636 33 5.1

23
1976-05-10T18:43:53.500Z 29.284 81.46 33 5.2
1976-09-12T15:36:11.800Z 27.672 85.752 33 4.8
1976-09-29T02:51:27.000Z 29.817 81.39 33 5
1976-10-23T16:09:19.800Z 28.676 86.228 63 5.1
1977-06-05T19:21:40.500Z 26.224 88.317 33 4.8
1977-09-20T05:51:36.000Z 29.518 81.096 23 5
1977-11-04T23:54:44.700Z 29.597 81.279 15 4.9
1978-02-10T17:29:52.000Z 28.072 84.644 33 5.2
1978-02-19T04:52:27.800Z 29.298 84.994 16 4.7
1978-03-07T10:21:59.100Z 29.279 81.052 33 4.2
1978-08-13T22:28:04.600Z 28.042 85.211 33 4.4
1978-10-04T13:53:52.000Z 27.834 85.963 33 5.2
1978-10-23T14:36:51.400Z 28.817 86.812 33 4.4
1978-12-12T10:00:52.500Z 29.046 81.232 56 4.3
1978-12-25T20:00:02.700Z 28.115 83.912 33 4.5
1979-03-05T23:54:52.500Z 30.476 79.727 33 4.3
1979-05-05T11:22:48.900Z 27.246 85.54 33 4.3
1979-05-20T22:59:14.200Z 30.029 80.31 33 5.9

24
 Table 4: Separated Mainshocks and Aftershocks

Gardner and Knopoff 1974 (Declustering)

Date Time latitude longitud Magnitude Aftershock Aftershocks Mainshocks
value value e ?
4814 0.461 30.201 81.929 6.5 No 5.97 6.5
6085 0.278 29.67 80.684 6.96 No 5.9 6.96
6132 0.825 29.45 80.623 5.82 No 5.48 5.82
6203 0.329 29.527 80.671 5.93 No 5.47 5.93
6908 0.446 28.558 81.883 6.19 No 4.4 6.19
9705 0.308 29.598 80.826 5.73 No 4.8 5.73
10143 0.441 29.662 80.686 5.77 No 4.7 5.77
11492 0.541 30.166 83.942 5.97 No 5.2 5.97
12434 0.363 27.275 86.941 8 No 4.8 8
12848 0.928 29.822 80.371 6.04 No 4.7 6.04
12858 0.440 29.621 79.672 5.53 No 5 5.53
13191 0.200 28.263 86.73 5.86 No 4.1 5.86
13297 0.263 28.378 83.32 6.87 No 4.2 6.87
13400 0.105 27.901 86.263 5.67 No 4.8 5.67
13635 0.815 29.784 81.436 5.97 Yes 4.5 5.68
13635 0.836 29.652 81.237 5.68 No 4.1 5.44
13869 0.208 29.378 80.742 5.44 No 4.3 5.79
13909 0.176 27.603 87.098 5.79 No 4.3 6.37
16592 0.506 30.271 80.118 6.37 No 4.6 5.78
16699 0.445 29.168 83.145 5.78 No 4.1 5.97
18776 0.666 28.925 86.685 5.97 No 4.1 5.84
19317 0.433 29.682 86.506 5.84 No 4.3 5.82

25
19413 0.032 29.529 81.382 5.82 No 4.1 5.77
19600 0.082 28.168 82.333 5.77 No 4 5.91
19971 0.280 28.169 83.825 5.91 No 4.3 5.69
20305 0.278 30.675 86.43 5.69 No 4.2 6.43
20924 0.300 30.521 84.348 6.43 No 4.3 5.47
21208 0.229 30.622 84.133 5.47 No 5.5 6.3
21486 0.449 30.472 84.553 6.3 No 4.8 5.55
21492 0.605 30.44 84.54 5.55 No 4.2 6.06
21547 0.232 29.926 79.9 6.06 No 4.1 5.67
21980 0.476 29.411 81.158 5.67 No 4 5.32
23521 0.001 30.069 82.174 5.32 No 4.2 5.35
23619 0.108 27.386 88.304 5.35 No 4.3 5.9
23646 0.032 29.829 80.474 5.9 No 4.1 5.4
Date Time latitude longitud Magnitude Aftershock Aftershocks Mainshocks
value value e ?
23656 0.847 29.287 80.909 5.4 No 4.1 5.45
23754 0.564 27.357 87.867 5.9 Yes 4.4 5.4
23754 0.580 27.407 87.735 5.45 No 4.4 5.21
23819 0.112 29.732 80.365 5.4 No 4.6 5.45
23875 0.452 29.8 80.271 5.21 No 4.4 6
23894 0.328 28.486 83.041 5.45 No 4.1 5.71
24285 0.445 29.504 80.845 6 No 4.4 6.27
24285 0.450 29.615 81.189 5.48 Yes 4.4 5.49
24285 0.451 29.543 80.915 5.71 No 4.1 5.23
24285 0.458 29.706 80.935 6.27 No 5.4 5.7
24285 0.473 29.567 80.852 5.47 Yes 4.2 5.15
24285 0.580 29.61 80.805 5.49 No 4 5.48
24416 0.787 28.252 83.798 5.23 No 4.6 5.31
24457 0.870 29.535 80.823 5.7 No 4.3 5.33

26
24459 0.946 29.599 80.805 5.15 No 4.2 5.32
24462 0.924 29.639 80.801 5.48 No 4.5 5.4
24824 0.452 29.303 81.793 5.31 No 5.4 5.41
24985 0.775 29.818 80.61 5.33 No 4.3 5.24
25265 0.264 30.076 79.97 5.32 No 4.4 5.5
25611 0.078 29.276 81.648 5.4 No 4.1 5.28
25625 0.813 27.653 85.914 5.41 No 4.4 5.35
25770 0.651 27.977 84.76 5.24 No 4.7 5.12
26056 0.023 30.739 84.443 5.5 No 4.1 5.2
26333 0.589 30.338 84.454 5.28 No 4.3 4.8
26373 0.250 30.579 84.387 5.35 No 4.6 5.2
26532 0.586 27.375 87.999 5.12 No 4.5 4.5
26745 0.046 28.135 86.993 5.2 No 4.2 5.7
26758 0.745 30.485 83.68 4.8 No 4.2 4.8
26953 0.410 28.219 82.945 5.2 No 4.3 4.5
27101 0.283 29.251 81.569 4.5 No 4.3 5.6
27112 0.594 27.727 86.11 5.7 No 4.6 5.2
27112 0.679 27.594 86.021 4.8 No 4.5 4.8
27155 0.047 29.325 81.652 4.5 No 4 5.4
27299 0.227 28.596 85.496 5.6 No 4.8 4.7
27386 0.407 29.412 81.393 5.2 No 4 4.9
27417 0.068 27.314 88.255 4.8 No 4.5 5.1
27425 0.527 28.1 84.729 5.4 No 4.9 5.2
27431 0.278 27.891 87.826 4.7 No 4.7 5.1
27493 0.145 30.41 84.889 4.9 No 4.8 4.3
Date Time latitude longitud Magnitude Aftershock Aftershocks Mainshocks
value value e ?
27508 0.067 27.238 86.902 5.1 No 4.5 4.2
27569 0.652 27.473 87.294 5.2 No 4 5.19

27
27643 0.198 29.283 82.161 5.1 No 5.6 5.1
27664 0.824 30.413 85.64 4.3 No 5.4 5.2
27691 0.739 26.848 86.293 4.2 No 5.1 4.8
27719 0.576 26.925 86.514 5.19 No 5.26 5
27724 0.627 28.343 87.636 5.1 No 5 5.1
27890 0.780 29.284 81.46 5.2 No 4.8 4.8
28015 0.650 27.672 85.752 4.8 No 4.7 5
28032 0.119 29.817 81.39 5 No 5.5 4.9
28056 0.673 28.676 86.228 5.1 No 4.4 5.2
28281 0.807 26.224 88.317 4.8 No 4.4 4.7
28388 0.244 29.518 81.096 5 No 4.2 4.2
28433 0.996 29.597 81.279 4.9 No 4.9 4.4
28531 0.729 28.072 84.644 5.2 No 4.8 5.2
28540 0.203 29.298 84.994 4.7 No 4 4.4
28556 0.432 29.279 81.052 4.2 No 4.2 4.3
28715 0.936 28.042 85.211 4.4 No 4.4 4.5
28767 0.579 27.834 85.963 5.2 No 4.3 4.3
28786 0.609 28.817 86.812 4.4 No 4.3 4.3
28836 0.417 29.046 81.232 4.3 No 4.4 5.9
28849 0.833 28.115 83.912 4.5 No 4.4 5.1
28919 0.996 30.476 79.727 4.3 No 4.6 4.2
28980 0.474 27.246 85.54 4.3 No 4.9 4.6

28
 Table 5: Completeness Analysis

Completeness Analysis (Kijko and Smit 2012)

Unique Mainshocks No. of events (n) Cumulative Log n Log N For avg
No. of events Magnitude
(N)
4 81 866 1.9085 2.9375 -
4.1 63 785 1.7993 2.8949 -
4.2 83 722 1.9191 2.8585 -
4.3 86 639 1.9345 2.8055 369.8
4.4 69 553 1.8388 2.7427 303.6
4.5 78 484 1.8921 2.6848 351
4.6 77 406 1.8865 2.6085 354.2
4.7 60 329 1.7782 2.5172 282
4.8 41 269 1.6128 2.4298 196.8
4.9 33 228 1.5185 2.3579 161.7
5 46 195 1.6628 2.2900 230
5.1 28 149 1.4472 2.1732 142.8
5.12 1 121 0.0000 2.0828 5.12
5.15 1 120 0.0000 2.0792 5.15
5.19 1 119 0.0000 2.0755 5.19
5.2 25 118 1.3979 2.0719 130
5.21 1 93 0.0000 1.9685 5.21
5.23 1 92 0.0000 1.9638 5.23
5.24 1 91 0.0000 1.9590 5.24
5.28 1 90 0.0000 1.9542 5.28
5.3 8 89 0.9031 1.9494 42.4

29
5.31 1 81 0.0000 1.9085 5.31
5.32 2 80 0.3010 1.9031 10.64
5.33 1 78 0.0000 1.8921 5.33
5.35 1 77 0.0000 1.8865 5.35
5.4 9 76 0.9542 1.8808 48.6
5.41 1 67 0.0000 1.8261 5.41
5.44 1 66 0.0000 1.8195 5.44
5.45 2 65 0.3010 1.8129 10.9
5.48 1 63 0.0000 1.7993 5.48
5.49 1 62 0.0000 1.7924 5.49
5.5 6 61 0.7782 1.7853 33
5.53 1 55 0.0000 1.7404 5.53
5.6 7 54 0.8451 1.7324 39.2
5.67 2 47 0.3010 1.6721 11.34
5.68 1 45 0.0000 1.6532 5.68
Unique Mainshocks No. of events (n) Cumulative Log n Log N For avg
No. of events Magnitude
(N)
5.7 8 44 0.9031 1.6435 45.6
5.71 1 36 0.0000 1.5563 5.71
5.73 1 35 0.0000 1.5441 5.73
5.77 2 34 0.3010 1.5315 11.54
5.78 1 32 0.0000 1.5051 5.78
5.79 1 31 0.0000 1.4914 5.79
5.82 2 30 0.3010 1.4771 11.64
5.86 1 28 0.0000 1.4472 5.86
5.9 2 27 0.3010 1.4314 11.8
5.91 1 25 0.0000 1.3979 5.91
5.93 1 24 0.0000 1.3802 5.93

30
5.97 2 23 0.3010 1.3617 11.94
6 1 21 0.0000 1.3222 6
6.04 1 20 0.0000 1.3010 6.04
6.06 1 19 0.0000 1.2788 6.06
6.1 1 18 0.0000 1.2553 6.1
6.19 1 17 0.0000 1.2304 6.19
6.2 1 16 0.0000 1.2041 6.2
6.27 1 15 0.0000 1.1761 6.27
6.3 2 14 0.3010 1.1461 12.6
6.37 1 12 0.0000 1.0792 6.37
6.5 2 11 0.3010 1.0414 13
6.6 1 9 0.0000 0.9542 6.6
6.7 1 8 0.0000 0.9031 6.7
6.87 1 7 0.0000 0.8451 6.87
6.9 2 6 0.3010 0.7782 13.8
6.96 1 4 0.0000 0.6021 6.96
7.3 1 3 0.0000 0.4771 7.3
7.8 1 2 0.0000 0.3010 7.8
8 1 1 0.0000 0.0000 8

31