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Hellmann Global Seafreight Market Update February 2024
Hellmann Global Seafreight Market Update February 2024
Agenda
Nov 19
Vessel “Galaxy
Leader” was attacked
and hijacked.
CMA CGM has now officially announced that they will also re-route their vessels around Africa. This completes the full
separation between the global alliance carriers and the smaller niche carriers who still operate services using the Bab al-
Mandeb crossing. It should in the context be noted that European niche carrier Tailwind also goes around Africa though,
leaving the niche direct Asia-Europe service principally to small Chinese carriers servicing the China-Russia trade. The
multitude of Asian niche carriers which cross the strait is principally linking the Red Sea ports to Asia and do not go through
the Suez Canal into the Med.
A permanent re-routing of all services requires 1-4-1.7 Million TEU of capacity equal to absorbing up to 6% of global
container vessel capacity.
Maintaining the services to and from Europe requires extra vessels which usually has a domino effect on other trades as
capacity is shifting.
Further service disruptions and ripple effects to be expected such as: equipment imbalance, schedule reliability, port
congestions, port omissions, etc. How severe to be seen in the coming weeks and months, but we should not expect a fast
resolution of the challenges.
Spot Rates have been increasing faster than after COVID-19, but are first time dropping since weeks, and it seems the peak
has been reached. However, we should not expect a steep decline in rates back to October/ November SCFI spot rate levels
as they were below cost levels for carriers.
Other services such as Sea-Air, Air, Rail are good alternatives at the moment to keep the supply chain and stock levels alive.
If you are interested in our service options, please speak to your Hellmann Sales Representative
Source: Vespucci Maritime, Lars Jensen, HWL own
THINKING AHEAD – MOVING FORWARD
14%
12%
12%
10%
8% 9%
8%
6%
4%
2% 3%
1% 1%
0% 0%
-2% -1% -1%
-3% -1% -2%
-2%
-4% -3% -4% -4%
-4%
-6%
-7%
-8% -6%
-9% -9%
-9%
-10% -10%
-12%
01/22 03/22 05/22 07/22 09/22 11/22 01/23 03/23 05/23 07/23 09/23 11/23
Source: CTS
THINKING AHEAD – MOVING FORWARD 8
95%
+9,3%
90%
+8,4%
2022
85%
2023 15,3 14,9
14,0 13,7
80%
75%
70%
Q1 Q2 Q3 Oct Nov 01/22 04/22 07/22 10/22 01/23 04/23 07/23 10/23 01/24
Sources: CTS, Alphaliner various issues ; 1) As compared to the respective weekly PY capacity
THINKING AHEAD – MOVING FORWARD 9
The composite index decreased by 4% to $3,824 per 40ft World Economic Outlook Update, January 2024
container this week and has increased by 88% compared
with the same week last year. The latest Drewry WCI Global growth is projected to stay at 3.1 percent in
composite index of $3,824 per 40ft container is the 2024 and rise to 3.2 percent in 2025. Elevated central
highest since October 2022 and is 169% more than bank rates to fight inflation and a withdrawal of fiscal
average 2019 (pre-pandemic) rates of $1,420. support amid high debt weigh on economic activity.
February 2nd SCFI increased from January 5th to
2,218/TEU (16.9%). It is 107.7% higher than 3 months ago
and 120.3% above last year’s figure at the same time.
Container Demand
02.1 = = - Rates steady but Congestion + PSS announced (not related to Red Sea situation)
Europe to Africa Space is a challenge but not impossible.
(2024-02-06)
04.1 - - + SAEC: Rates are decreasing. Demand is dropping and therefore space is available / SAWC: Rates are decreasing. the carriers
Europe to Latin America show more interest in opportunities and space is available / MEX: vessels show a higher utilization again. Carriers are open
for new opportunities and are willing to discuss longer contract validities again. Impact of the Red Sea conflict is known yet.
(2024-02-06)
THINKING AHEAD – MOVING FORWARD 12
05.1 - = = Layover time in T/S ports is back to normal (one to max two weeks)
Europe to Oceania Direct service is still very good utilized
Rates are no more decreasing because of the Red Sea situation
(2024-02-06)
25.1 - = = Space & equipment availability are back on a “normal” level for the majority of the ports.. Carriers are interested in businesses
Intra Europe again.
Israel: situation unstable – only possible with high risk charges. Can change from day to day
(2024-02-06) Majority of Med destinations are not effected by Red Sea situation as there are a lot of Med dedicated services available. Still
some destinations served via Asia services will face issues
THINKING AHEAD – MOVING FORWARD 13
01.2 -- - -- Rate levels are slightly decreasing close before CNY as carriers are trying to secure as much cargo as possible for a solid roll
Asia to Europe pool, in order to cater for the post CLY slack period. SCFI slightly decreased three weeks in a row.
First issues regarding Equipment availability arise in certain areas.
(2024-02-06)
First blank sailings due to COGH diversions from mid FEB. Further Equipment issues expected.
THINKING AHEAD – MOVING FORWARD 15
10.1 _ + - • Freight rates are stabilizing with slight increases but carriers strict to apply congestion charge of USD200/TEU for South
Asia to Africa African Ports.
• We may expect congestion situation to improve in South Africa post CNY.
(2024-02-06) • East and West Africa freight rates are expecting to stay stagnant for most of Feb.
• Carriers are open to longer-term contracts.
11.1 = ++ - Schedule into Australia has been severely affected due to the continuous Planned Industrial Action (PIA) since early October.
Asia to Oceania Average waiting time for berth for SYD/MEL/BNE/FRE/ADL stands at approximately 2-3 days. Most ships are returning to Asia
almost a week late from their intended proforma schedule. Market capacity for China to Australia East Coast has reduced as a
(2024-02-06) result.
Service into New Zealand are affected by PIA from AU, as most vessels arrive outside of planned window and thus must wait
for available berth. Demand for direct call space from China is high and thus carriers are also having GRI to ensure to keep the
balance between supply and demand.
24.1 = = = Southbound Intra Asia from China are experiencing higher demand, and rates are expected to remain high especially for
Intra Asia Destination ID/PH/VN/TH. That said, rates are expected to soften as we head into Chinese New Year in February.
(2024-02-06) Other sectors such as Southeast Asia (SEA) Northbound and Intra SEA remain stable, and rates are expected to remain flat
into 2024.
THINKING AHEAD – MOVING FORWARD 16
08.1 -- - - • First week of February is seeing a high demand of volume, PRE CNY rush to ship as much as possible.
Asia to Latin America • The next weeks of the month are expected to see a decrease in the demand with holidays in Asia and factories closing,
rates are expected to decrease as well during this month as carriers will push to fill vessels.
(2024-02-06) • February will have at least 2 Blank sailings per carrier, decreasing market capacity to stabilize vessel´s utilization.
• For March we will see the Post CNY effect, with urgent cargo to be shipped and full vessels which will once again spike
rates higher.
• Container shortage is already a reality in Asia, not only on outports but on base ports as well. If the Red sea situation
continues in March after CNY, then rate increase will be even higher. Suggest flexibility on equipment type, including the
use of NOR containers.
09.1 - + -- • Most carriers continue to suspend direct service to Red sea, accepting routing via Jebel Ali at high premium.
Asia to Middle East / • This has resulted higher demand for Persian gulf which has pushed up rates significantly by over 100%
South Asia • For Indian-Subcontinent, rates were pushed up with USD300/TEU increase
• Space in 1st half of Feb is overbooked due to CNY and rollovers are expected
(2024-02-06) • Post CNY we may start to see some softening up of freight
• Carriers are still open to longer-term rates but levels provided are much higher than what was possible last year.
THINKING AHEAD – MOVING FORWARD 17
Allocation:
• ONE in collaboration with CMA on the South Florida “FLX” service now calling ORF/PHL/NYC and SAI on the WCSA.
•Zim enhanced the Colibri service by adding Lirquen Chile (South) targeting commodities moving into USEC.
•New service rotation deployed during Q1/24 by ZIM Lines under "Tucan", connecting ECSA <-> USGULF, and Ceiba Express
from CMA ex Florida to Central America.
•USEC to WCSA, suffering capacity constrains in view of the Panama Canal service delays pushing carriers to re-route the
cargo via Panama (land) or dealing with the extra waiting time announced with 3 days aprox.
THINKING AHEAD – MOVING FORWARD 18
06.2 = - = • Al5 open, but has cancelled the PNW and added Saint Johns, Canada. Los Angles & Oakland remain off the west coast
North America to Europe • Panama Canal surcharge has been implemented due to low waters.
• East coast/Gulf Coast open for business
(2024-02-06) • Rates continue to remain low.
• Services into the West & East Med wide open.
• Watch for blank sailings
• EU ETS Surcharge in full effect from all carriers
07.2 = - _ • Space is wide open off the east and west coast
North America to Asia • The Alliance has suspended the EC4, PN3 & PS5 services
• Be aware of upcoming port omissions/blank sailings.
(2024-02-06) • Rates remain low off both coasts.
• Some carriers have implemented a Panama Canal Surcharge ranging from $65 -$150 per teu
• Due to the current ongong crisis in the Red Sea many carriers have re-routed cargo to Asia through the Suez Canal around
the Cape of Good Hope. Contingency surcharges/GRI's to be expected
THINKING AHEAD – MOVING FORWARD 19
04.2 = - + •
•
Ocean carrier vessel utilization is stable, carriers are reporting strong performance on FAK.
Lumber Season demand from ECSA starts in Q1 to NEU, strength will depend each country economy development.
Latin America to Europe
• Effective Jan. 1st/24 new ETS surcharge implementation by all carriers connecting with Europe ports.
(2024-02-06) • One Lux Service and Zim Tucan Service, are opening allocation ex ECSA connecting with Europe via their net-work
• New Panama Canal Surcharge Eff. Jan/24 ranging from USD 130 to $150 x TEU's.
• Carrier’s flexibility increased around long-term and mid-term businesses, except to Read Sea Market
21.2 = - + •
•
Capacity is stable, entering to the slack season that shall end by end of Q1.
Rate levels continue stable, not further reduction expected with some flexibility around NAC's.
Latin America to North
• Mexico to USA (nearshoring projects) creating high expectations in the market once Automobile productions plants are ready in 1-2 years
America from now.
• New Panama Canal Surcharge Eff. Jan/24 ranging from USD 130 to $150 x TEU's to compensate the operational spend faced with the
(2024-02-06) recent delays and vessel crossing reduction from 38 to 24, to remain under evaluation until further notice.
• New service rotation deployed during Q1/24 by ZIM Lines under "Tucan", connecting ECSA <-> USGULF, opening extra capacity to this
market, and Ceiba Express by CMA connecting CA & South Flordia. Also upgrade of the Colibri adding Lirquen POL to connect with USEC
23.1 = - + • Rates for Intra East & Intra West Coast are very low, pushing carriers to prefer long haul business paying higher rates, but market is not
Intra Latin America
on carrier's favor.
(2024-02-06) • New Panama Canal Surcharge Eff. Jan/24 ranging from USD 130 to $150 x TEU's to compensate the operational spend faced with the
recent delays and vessel crossing reduction from 38 to 24 x day, until further notice.
• Intra-Latam service connections are running smooth with no port congestion and open space across the board
• Carrier’s flexibility increased around long-term and mid-term businesses due to soft market conditions.
• TLM seeking for new clients, this is the right time to play aggressive, and approach clients that were not able to secure before due to
pricing or service connectivity limitations.
THINKING AHEAD – MOVING FORWARD 20
03.2 = ++ - Due to Red Sea Situation, Carriers have implemented Surcharges / GRI / PSS
Middle East / South Asia to Capactiy is less due to port omissions and blanks .
Europe
(2024-02-06)
17.2 = ++ - Due to Red Sea Situation, Carriers have implemented Surcharges / GRI / PSS
Middle East / South Asia to Capactiy is less due to port omissions and blanks. Carriers are releasing bookings strictly as per allocation.
North America
(2024-02-06)
09.2 = - - Space and equipment are available , backhaul trade is still ok as carriers need equipment in China
Middle East / South Asia to
Far East
(2024-02-06)
18.2 = ++ - Due to Red Sea Situation, Carriers have implemented Surcharges / GRI / PSS
Middle East / South Asia to Capactiy is less due to port omissions and blanks. Carriers are releasing bookings strictly as per allocation.
Latin America
(2024-02-06)
26.1 = ++ - Due to Red Sea Situation, Carriers have implemented Surcharges / GRI / PSS
Intra Middle East / Capactiy is less due to port omissions and blanks . Red sea : Land sea options, new feeder capacity to serve Red sea ports.
South Asia
(2024-02-06)
THINKING AHEAD – MOVING FORWARD
19.1- North America to Oceania • Our consol is not fully utilized, space is available, target to increase volume in HWL own box vs co-load
07.2- North America to Far • LCL export rates are currently stable
East • Space is available.
• Panama Canal draught restrictions have made carriers announce surcharges, but effective dates are getting pushed back
to July 1st. Please announce your customers a surcharge of 15 USD w/m might be implemented as of July.
General; All NOAM • US East Coast increasing cargo volumes from the LATAM trades, especially Miami and Savannah.
• North America-South America volume is expected to continue growing with the launch of new services that connect
both sub-regions.
• Export storage free times have been reduced across the board
• Port congestion continues to improve; however delays continue to be observed resulting in potential delays.
• Schedule reliability still low, causing unanticipated delays in CFS vs ATD.
• ILWU Labor negotiation still waiting for final resolution. A tentative agreement on a new 6-year contract.
THINKING AHEAD – MOVING FORWARD 23
21.2- Latin America to N. • Rates tendency to decrease. E.g. BRSSZ to USNYC are on its lowest levels in 5 years.
America • Booking with anticipation is suggested to ensure space in desired sailing.
23.1- Intra Latin America • LCL rates trend to stabilize. Open possibility to get low long-term rates.
• Booking with anticipation is recommended to ensure space in desired sailing.
General; LATAM Panama Canal Drought: low water level causing several restrictions on vessel crossing from Asia to US EC and Gulf Coasts.
Carriers likely to impose an additional fee to offset the impact, however they continue to push the surcharges effective date
to August 1st.
THINKING AHEAD – MOVING FORWARD 24
04.1- Europe to Latin America More services will be opened (ONE to SAEC). Offers will be bigger. All carriers seem to look for cargo.
03.1- Europe to MESA EU:WWA has started Direct service in below sectors:-
FRMRS - INNSA
SEGOT – AEJEA
IMEA: Icargo has started direct service on below sector
London Gateway to Aqaba –T/T – 26 Days – Weekly Sailing.
Barcelona to Alexandria – T/T - 10 Days – Weekly Sailing
Rotterdam to Alexandria – T/T - 14 Days – Weekly Sailing
Hellmann Consol started from Hamburg to Nhava Sheva – Weekly sailing. Additional volume required to utilize the full
capacity.
Hellmann Consol started from Rotterdam to Jebel Ali – Weekly sailing. Additional volume required to utilize the full capacity.
25.1- Intra Europe Stable.
THINKING AHEAD – MOVING FORWARD 25
07.1- Far East to North Carriers increased rates significantly to cater for the situation of vessel divert from Red Sea to via CPGH, blank sailing and
America equipment shortage. We anticipate carriers will continue the blank sailing to curb the supply vs demand and will hold those
surcharges as much as possible.
11.1- Far East to Oceania Space is available and require support for own Consol service.
24.1- Intra Far East Due to vessel diversion around the COGH, Asian shippers are facing high freight rates and a lack of capacity on the intra-Asia
trades. Exporters are also grappling with equipment shortages and the impact is significant on key trade routes, like China-
Vietnam and China-Thailand, where deep-sea services make up a growing share of intra-Asia volumes.
THINKING AHEAD – MOVING FORWARD 27
17.2- MESA to North America WWA has started direct service on below sector
INMAA - CATOR –T/T – 27 Days – Weekly Sailing
THINKING AHEAD – MOVING FORWARD 28
18.2- MESA to Latin America WWA has started direct sailing from INNSA to DOCAU with a T/T of 29 Days