NEWS 1no

NUCLEAR SECURITY: A FORTNIGHTLY NEWSLETTER FROM CAPS
OPINION – Jarret Adams

Vol 18, No. 01, 01 NOV. 2023
The Communications Challenge for Nuclear
Energy’s Revival CONTENTS
The past few years have seen the nuclear energy  OPINION
sector go through an extraordinary
 NUCLEAR STRATEGY
transformation. From nuclear power plants
 BALLISTIC MISSILE DEFENCE
shutting down prematurely in Europe and the USA,
we are now seeing a wave of new plants entering  NUCLEAR ENERGY
service and next-generation designs such as  URANIUM PRODUCTION
SMRs on the cusp of breaking ground on  NUCLEAR PROLIFERATION
construction. The tide has shifted dramatically in  NUCLEAR SAFETY
favour of nuclear energy, spurring a major shift  NUCLEAR SECURITY
in growth projections.  NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT
The industry has shifted from its historical  NUCLEAR WASTE MANAGEMENT
defensive crouch to lean toward the future. This
requires a shift in mindset as well as strategy as
companies move from development to energy supports energy security as supply
implementation, from ideas to shovels in the disruptions caused global natural gas prices to
ground. The secret is that spike. This has coloured the
nuclear energy’s comeback The secret is that nuclear energy ’s thinking of energy
story is not just about new comeback story is not just about new policymakers and seen
technology but about new technology but about new business them reconsider plans to
business approaches and approaches and new ways to identify shut down existing nuclear
new ways to identify and and engage customers, investors, plants and prompted
engage customers, communities, and others. It is about consideration of building
investors, communities, how we beef up how we communicate new ones. Although
and others. It is about how the industry’s advances as part of policymakers previously
we beef up how we business models positioning the touted nuclear as part of
communicate the industry’s industry for the future. the long-term solution to
advances as part of reducing emissions,
business models concerns about energy
positioning the industry for the future. A host of security have made resilience a more immediate
factors are shaping how we do this. concern.
The war in Ukraine has highlighted how nuclear While the answer is still nuclear energy, the route
Vol. 18, No. 01, 01 NOVEMBER 2023 / PAGE - 1

to this answer has changed, and the topic is higher regulatory approvals and engage with potential
on the priority list for nations previously reliant host communities for the plants. Achieving all
on gas supplies originating in Russia. these things requires effective communication and
Consequently, growth projections for nuclear engagement activity, over significant timescales.
growth projections have been revised steadily That in turn requires an in-depth understanding of
upward, with most predicting a doubling or tripling these stakeholders, their concerns, their
of global capacity by 2050. IAEA just raised its influencers and their constraints.
growth scenario for 2050 for nuclear energy for
the third year in a row because of growing clean At Full On Communications, we have observed this
energy demands along with evolution firsthand. Nuclear industry colleagues
concerns about energy have begun to recognise
security. “Climate change is Recent completions of large plants in that communication is no
a big driver, but so is Finland, UAE, USA and elsewhere have longer simply press
security of energy supply,” buoyed expectations of signing new releases and a website.
said IAEA Director General supply agreements. But large or small, Successful engagement
Grossi when the agency developers will need to ensure requires integrated
announced the new enduring policy landscape, secure planning and
investment, complete engineering implementation to make
projections.
work, construction plans, sign supplier real connections, build
We have made great agreements, gain regulatory approvals trust and foster mutual
progress in recent years and engage with potential host understanding. Shifting
building support for nuclear communities for the plants. Achieving from dogmatic insistence
energy. Support for nuclear all these things requires effective backed with data and
energy in the USA has risen communication and engagement diagrams, to a two-way
steadily and has remained activity, over significant timescales. dialogue, predicated on
at record levels for the past listening first and then
three years, with 76% in responding empathetically,
favour, according to an annual survey by Bisconti is key. Sometimes this may be face-to-face and
Research. Nuclear energy’s advantages are sometimes virtually via webinars and channels
drawing new countries to consider using the such as social media. The role of trusted
technology for the first time, as they look to reduce independent voices in these discussions is also
their reliance on fossil fuel imports and pursue critical - be they technical experts or trusted
their clean energy/net-zero emission goals. For representatives within a stakeholder group.
many, smaller plants such as SMRs are better
suited to their budgetary constraints and existing Alongside technological developments, we have
infrastructure, and now advanced nuclear designs responded to this shift in the industry’s thinking
are expanding the range of applications that plants and reflected on how our work has broadened from
can meet, such as desalination, industrial heat and traditional communications advice to a more multi-
charging electric vehicles, as well as simply faceted art form. With this coordinated array of
replacing fossil-fired power plants to make activities, we can better connect with stakeholders
electricity. Meanwhile, there is still interest in and explain how nuclear energy contributes to
large nuclear plants in countries with strong making people’s lives better. And we have seen
electricity demand growth. Recent completions of some important successes along the way. With the
large plants in Finland, UAE, USA and elsewhere wind at its back, nuclear energy is poised to play
have buoyed expectations of signing new supply a much larger role in solving our energy and climate
agreements. But large or small, developers will challenges. That is why expanding our scope to
need to ensure enduring policy landscape, secure communicate in a more holistic sense about the
investment, complete engineering work, business of nuclear energy is critical to navigating
construction plans, sign supplier agreements, gain the way forward.

Source: https://world-nuclear-news.org/Articles/ of simultaneously deterring both.” There was little

Navigating-the-Communications-Challenge-of- public notice of the Congressional Commission’s
Nuclear. 18 October 2023. proposals given Hamas’ terrorist attack on Israelis
and Israel’s continuing response, the fighting in
OPINION – Walter Pincus Ukraine and the internal GOP battle over House
The Dawn of Our Nuclear Wake-Up Call Speaker. However, the report’s recommendations
will be taken seriously on Capitol Hill as reflected
A list of proposals released on 16 October in the in this response from Rep. Mike Rogers (R-Ala.),
final report of the 12-member bipartisan Chairman of the House Armed Services Committee,
Congressional Commission on the Strategic who said, “The details of this report should serve
Posture of the US, lays out a questionable buildup as a wakeup call for our strategic posture – we
of the U.S. nuclear posture. “The following strategic need to rapidly make changes now if we want to
nuclear force posture modifications should be deter tomorrow.”
pursued with urgency:
Prepare to upload some or I agree with the views
all of the nation’s hedge The recommendations were based on expressed by writers for the
[nuclear] warheads [now a threat assessment by the hand- Federation of American
non-deployed]; Plan to picked team of Republican and Scientists (FAS) who said,
deploy the [new] Sentinel Democratic members of Congress “The Commission’s
ICBM in a MIRVed based on what the U.S. may be facing embrace of a U.S. nuclear
configuration; Increase the in just a few years — two nuclear peer buildup ignores the
planned number of adversaries, Russia and China. The consequences of a likely
deployed [nuclear] Long- Commission said it was responding to arms race with Russia and
Range Standoff [cruise a worst-case situation. China.” The FAS group
missiles]; Increase the recognized that the
planned number of [new] proposed U.S. nuclear
B-21 bombers and the tankers an expanded force buildup response to China would cause Russia to
would require; Increase the planned production of increase its own deployed warheads and delivery
Columbia SSBNs [strategic submarines] and their systems and perhaps cause China to rethink it
Trident ballistic missile systems; Accelerate needs even more. But beyond the threat of causing
development and deployment of D5 LE2 a new arms race, the Congressional Commission’s
[extended-life, sub-launched ballistic missile]; report resurrects a series of Cold War rationales
Pursue the feasibility of fielding some portion of for added nuclear weapons that I believe are no
the future ICBM force in a road mobile longer valid. For example, the Commission
configuration.”The recommendations were based declares that the first “foundational strategy tenet
on a threat assessment by the hand-picked team is…maintaining an assured second-strike
of Republican and Democratic members of capability sufficient to impose unacceptable costs
Congress based on what the U.S. may be facing in as an adversary or adversaries perceive it under
just a few years — two nuclear peer adversaries, any conditions.” Here, the Commission raises the
Russia and China. The Commission said it was old Cold War ‘first strike’ threat that was a reason
responding to a worst-case situation, saying in its for building up U.S. nuclear forces back in the late
report, “nuclear force structure constructs can no 1950s-early 1960s. However, who today believes
longer assume that the nuclear forces necessary that either Russia or China – or both together –
to deter or counter the Russian nuclear threat will would ever attempt to carry out the so-called first
be sufficient to deter or counter the Chinese strike, to knock out the entire U.S. nuclear force?
nuclear threat simultaneously. Nuclear force sizing That is why beginning in the late 1960s, we
and composition must account for the possibility established the diversified Triad – using strategic
of combined aggression from Russia and China. bombers, ICBMs and strategic SLBMs to survive
Therefore, the US needs a nuclear posture capable

and thus deter any first warhead. That would result

strike. A first strike carried A first strike carried out against the in the killing and wounding
out against the deployed deployed U.S. nuclear Triad that exists millions of civilians, so
U.S. nuclear Triad that exists today would require the most precise don’t talk about adhering to
today would require the attack in human history and the LOAC when you are
most precise attack in resultant radioactive fallout – 400 of contemplating nuclear
human history and the U.S. ICBMs are in underground silos — attacks on “key leadership”
resultant radioactive fallout would threaten the survival of much of Russia and/or China. As
– 400 of U.S. ICBMs are in of mankind. with Hiroshima and
underground silos — would Nagasaki, although they
threaten the survival of much of mankind. Also, each had minor military targets, the real aim of
remember that today, a U.S. strategic Ohio-class using the first atomic bombs was to use them as
submarine carries 20 SLBMs with three or four terror weapons to kill people and end a war, not
warheads on a missile, each warhead many times to continue fighting that war.
more powerful than the bomb used at Hiroshima.
Normally, four of 15 U.S. strategic subs are on There is an interesting, relevant story behind the
operational patrol, which means they are all but 1960s end of the Eisenhower Administration’s
impossible to be targeted. That also means there strategy to deter first use of nuclear weapons by
could be a minimum of 240 U.S. nuclear warheads the Soviet Union. It was called “massive
that, without the proposed retaliation” and claimed
Commission buildup, could As that the U.S. would use
described in the 2010 almost all its nuclear
today and in the future, book Stockpile by retired V ice Adm.
survive any Russia/China Jerry Miller, who in the early 1960s weapons as a response to
hypothetical first strike worked at Strategic Command on joint destroy the Soviet
attempt. In addition, strategic target planning, “when he leadership and its urban/
employing the retaliation for [McNamara] took office in 1961, the industrial base. It was also
a first strike theory puts the weapons in the nation’s nuclear war called city busting. Robert
emphasis on survival of plan numbered around 3,500. When McNamara, who served as
systems and therefore he left office seven years later, the Defense Secretary during
requires more weapons and figure was about 7,000 and climbing the Kennedy
delivery systems if a to 10,000.” Before President H.W. Administration, rejected
retaliatory strike is to be Bush’s administration ordered the Eisenhower
effective. Administration’s strategy
reductions and arms control of attacking cities and
Another fallacy in the negotiations, there were some 50 instead wanted to destroy
Commission’s deterrent nuclear weapons pointed at Moscow Soviet nuclear weaponry,
rationale is that holding at — and my guess is that there are still which required many more
risk key elements of Russian at least 10 or more U.S. warheads nuclear weapons and
and Chinese leadership targeting the Russian capital today. more accurate delivery
would “Continue the systems. As described in
practice and policy of not directly targeting civilian the 2010 book Stockpile by retired Vice Adm. Jerry
populations and adhere to the LOAC [Law of Miller, who in the early 1960s worked at Strategic
Armed Conflict] in nuclear planning and Command on joint strategic target planning,
operations.” In Cold War days, and I believe today, “when he [McNamara] took office in 1961, the
saying you are targeting “key elements of their weapons in the nation’s nuclear war plan
[Russia, China] leadership [and] the security numbered around 3,500. When he left office
structure maintaining the leadership in power,” seven years later, the figure was about 7,000 and
means hitting Moscow, Beijing and perhaps other climbing to 10,000.” Before President H.W. Bush’s
cities, each with more than one thermonuclear administration ordered reductions and arms

control negotiations, there were some 50 nuclear to be altered to increase reliance on nuclear
weapons pointed at Moscow — and my guess is weapons to deter or counter opportunistic or
that there are still at least 10 or more U.S. collaborative aggression in the other theater.”
warheads targeting the Russian capital today.
That’s a great example of the declaratory policy
The Commission also recommended an increase of “calculated ambiguity,” which the Commission
in lower-yield tactical or battlefield weapons in approves. As its predecessor Congressional
order to – as its report says – “Provide the Commission on the Strategic Posture of the US
President a range of militarily effective nuclear put it back 2009, “Calculated ambiguity creates
response options to deter or counter Chinese or uncertainty in the mind of a potential aggressor
Russian limited nuclear use in theater.” It about just how the U.S. might respond to an act
specifically calls for “additional U.S. theater of aggression, and this ought to reinforce restraint
nuclear capabilities” in and caution on the part of
Europe and the Indo- Today, Russia has some 2,000 tactical that potential aggressor.” As
Pacific areas. Today, nuclear weapons while the U.S. I’ve indicated, when it
Russia has some 2,000 maintains less than half that number comes to nuclear weapons,
tactical nuclear weapons in tactical nuclear bombs and air- people have played word
while the U.S. maintains launched and sub-launched missiles. games with nuclear strategy
less than half that number The Commission said, “Russia is and have felt strong or weak
in tactical nuclear bombs projected to continue to expand and politically at home and
and air-launched and sub- enhance its nuclear forces, with most diplomatically abroad,
launched missiles. The of the growth concentrated in theater based on the number of
Commission said, “Russia nuclear forces, thus increasing its nuclear weapons
is projected to continue to decided numerical advantage over possessed. The most
expand and enhance its U.S. and allied nuclear forces. important fact about nuclear
nuclear forces, with most weapons remains — they
of the growth concentrated have not been used in
in theater nuclear forces, thus increasing its wartime since 1945, and despite their now-
decided numerical advantage over U.S. and allied growing focus, hopefully, they will not ever be
nuclear forces.” used again.
In addition, the Commission claimed, “Russian Source: https://www.thecipherbrief.com/
strategy and doctrine as written, envisions limited column_article/the-dawn-of-our-nuclear-wake-
first use of theater nuclear weapons to, inter alia, up-call. 17 October 2023.
coerce war termination on terms acceptable to
Russia,” which is also referred to as the “escalate OPINION – Michael Eisenstadt
to de-escalate policy.” Russian officials, however, America’s Failing Iran Nuclear Policy: Time for
continue to insist that Moscow would only order a Course Adjustment
first use of any nuclear weapon if existence of
the state were under threat. However, the America’s inability to rein in Tehran’s nuclear
Commission recommends a policy that sounds program after exiting the 2015 nuclear deal — to
very much like Russia’s so-called ‘escalate to de- halt the Islamic Republic’s subsequent
escalate’ policy. The Commission said, “The accumulation of fissile material and to forge a
objectives of U.S. strategy must include effective “longer and stronger” deal — should prompt
deterrence and defeat of simultaneous Russian Washington to reassess its Iran policy. Such a
and Chinese aggression in Europe and Asia using reckoning should acknowledge that the US has
conventional forces. If the US and its Allies and never used all of the implements in its policy
partners do not field sufficient conventional forces toolkit to rein in Iran’s nuclear ambitions, while
to achieve this objective, U.S. strategy would need the tools it has generally relied on — diplomacy,
sanctions, and (to a much lesser extent) the threat

of force — are less effective today due to a shifting is not clear that “all options” really are “on the
geopolitical landscape. table” — that a U.S.
president would order a
For now, it is unclear if Because there are no insurmountable military strike on Iran’s
ongoing stop-gap diplomacy technical obstacles to Iran building nuclear weapons program.
to reach informal nuclear weapons, shaping its proliferation
understandings with the calculus is key to influencing the trajectory By contrast, Israeli PM
Iranian leadership absent a of its nuclear program. A “shaping Netanyahu has claimed that
formal deal will cause the strategy” to avoid a nuclear-armed Iran, “the only thing that has …
Islamic Republic to curb its moreover, should be something to which stopped rogue nations [like
fissile material buildup nearly all parties to the often-fraught Iran Iran] from developing
indefinitely in return for the policy debate can agree — whether nuclear weapons is a
easing of sanctions on its oil “engagers,” “containers,” or “regime credible military threat or …
exports. Furthermore, the changers. military action. … The longer
Israeli-Hamas war in Gaza you wait [however], the
will almost certainly absorb the attention of U.S. harder that becomes.” Yet Israeli credibility has
policymakers for months to come. Yet policymakers been undermined by its failure to enforce its own
will need to remain focused on halting Iran’s fissile nuclear redlines or to prepare adequately for the
material buildup while undertaking a long-term consequences of the U.S. exit from the 2015 nuclear
effort — using a broader policy toolkit than accord after it encouraged Washington to abandon
employed to date — to shape Tehran’s assessment the deal. Moreover, relying on Israel to do the job
of the risks, costs, and utility of nuclear weapons. is not the answer, as Iran is too big a problem for
The goal should be to dissuade and deter Iran from Israel to handle on its own.
building a bomb, and thus to keep it kicking the
(nuclear) can down the road. Because there are no Approaches that lean heavily on a single factor for
insurmountable technical obstacles to Iran building success, whether diplomacy (the US and Europe)
or the threat of force (Israel), are likely to yield
nuclear weapons, shaping
fragile policies built upon a
its proliferation calculus is
By contrast, Israeli PM Netanyahu has single point of failure. By
key to influencing the
claimed that “the only thing that has contrast, a more holistic
trajectory of its nuclear
program. A “shaping … stopped rogue nations [like Iran] approach that employs all
strategy” to avoid a from developing nuclear weapons is a the instruments of national
Iran, credible military threat or … military power (sanctions,
nuclear-armed
diplomacy, covert action, the
moreover, should be action. … The longer you wait
something to which nearly [however], the harder that becomes. threat of force, and influence
activities) is more likely to
all parties to the often-
fraught Iran policy debate can agree — whether yield a robust, sustainable policy of dissuasion,
“engagers,” “containers,” or “regime changers.” deterrence, and delay. And such an approach is
more likely to succeed at shaping Tehran’s
Outdated U.S. Policy Assumptions: Many of the perception of the potential risks, costs, and utility
assumptions underpinning U.S., European, and of nuclear weapons — and to dissuade it from
Israeli policy approaches toward Iran’s nuclear building a bomb. At any rate, U.S. policymakers do
program are no longer valid. The U.S. (and to some not seem to recognize that many of the policy tools
extent European) approach was best summed up that the US and its allies traditionally relied on to
by Secretary of State Blinken when he stated that constrain Iran’s nuclear ambitions are no longer as
“diplomacy is the best way to verifiably, effectively, useful as they were in the past:
and sustainably prevent Iran from getting a nuclear
weapon,” though if “Iran rejects [this] path … all Sanctions: Washington’s ability to sanction Tehran’s
options are on the table.” Yet Iran has repeatedly oil sector has frequently been constrained by a
rejected opportunities to negotiate a longer, desire to avoid price shocks and limit tensions with
stronger deal, and should push comes to shove, it China — currently its main customer. And Iran’s

efforts to build a more diversified, self-reliant order and the Iranian government’s recent efforts
“resistance economy” will increasingly limit the to forge close partnerships with Russia and China
efficacy of sanctions; today, have created new
oil and gas sales as a opportunities for the Islamic
Tehran aspires to a regional and global
proportion of total exports Republic. After all, its allies
leadership role but cannot achieve this
and government revenues in its efforts to counter U.S.
goal if it is diplomatically isolated. So,
are a fraction of what they “hegemony” (Russia, China,
to avoid diplomatic censure, it has
were a decade ago. And if and other members of Brazil,
regularly promised greater access and
the US were to undertake a Russia, India, China, and
revived “maximum transparency to UN nuclear inspectors South Africa group and the
pressure” campaign, the to avoid a referral of its case to the Shanghai Cooperation
Islamic Republic could UNSC. Similarly, to gain relief from Organization) comprise
respond as in 2019 with crushing sanctions and ease its almost half of the world’s
attacks on oil transport and international isolation, it agreed to roll population. So, while Tehran
infrastructure in the Gulf. back large parts of its nuclear program still lacks a reliable great
Preoccupied with the war in in a 2013 interim deal that led to the power partner, it may no
Ukraine and tensions with 2015 JCPOA with the P5+1. longer feel that it can be
China, any administration isolated.
will try to avoid new entanglements in the Middle
East. So, while sanctions remain useful — Covert Action and Sabotage: Covert action can buy
restricting Tehran’s access to foreign exchange time by disrupting and delaying the activities of
and limiting its military spending — economic and nuclear aspirants, but it cannot halt a determined
military considerations increasingly constrain their proliferator. Israeli efforts to sabotage Iraq’s nuclear
application. program did not eliminate the need to eventually
bomb the Osirak reactor in 1981. Likewise, though
Diplomatic Isolation: Iran’s march toward a
Tehran aspires to a regional Yet military action may not always be nuclear weapons capability
and global leadership role possible if nuclear diplomacy fails: has been delayed by acts of
but cannot achieve this goal hardening, burying, and dispersal may sabotage, it continues to
if it is diplomatically eventually put the Islamic Republic’s make progress. And recent
isolated. So, to avoid nuclear program beyond the reach of Israeli covert actions may
diplomatic censure, it has conventional weapons; crises have spurred Tehran to
regularly promised greater elsewhere (e.g., the Israeli-Hamas war accelerate its efforts. So,
access and transparency to in Gaza) may preclude effective Israeli while covert action remains
UN nuclear inspectors to or U.S. military action; Iran’s growing a vital tool, it is not a game
avoid a referral of its case missile and drone force may make changer and may be
to the UNSC. Similarly, to preventive action prohibitively costly; counterproductive, absent a
gain relief from crushing and intelligence sources could dry up willingness to employ
sanctions and ease its military force to deter
(though Iran’s nuclear program seems
international isolation, it countermoves.
thoroughly penetrated).
agreed to roll back large
parts of its nuclear program Preventive Military Action:
in a 2013 interim deal that led to the 2015 JCPOA The US has implied, and
with the P5+1 (the US, UK, France, Russia, China, Israel has practically expressed, a readiness to use
and Germany). Since then, Tehran’s ties with force to prevent Iran from developing a nuclear
Europe have frayed due to its role in a string of weapon. Yet military action may not always be
terrorist plots in Europe, its violent repression of possible if nuclear diplomacy fails: hardening,
the “women, life, freedom” protests, and its burying, and dispersal may eventually put the
military support for Russia’s war on Ukraine. Islamic Republic’s nuclear program beyond the
However, the emergence of a multipolar global reach of conventional weapons; crises elsewhere
(e.g., the Israeli-Hamas war in Gaza) may preclude

effective Israeli or U.S. military action; Iran’s probably defer a decision about building a bomb
growing missile and drone force may make as long as he believes it could prompt such a strike;
preventive action prohibitively costly; and the risks and costs of both are potentially high and
intelligence sources could the benefits uncertain. The
dry up (though Iran’s For Israel, a preventive strike would symmetry in the dilemmas
nuclear program seems need to maximize damage to Iran’s faced by the two sides is
thoroughly penetrated). nuclear infrastructure without striking. Tehran’s dilemma,
however, when seen in the
Even if a military strike catalyzing a broader, more destructive context of its nuclear
remains a viable option, it conflict that might preclude future hedging strategy, may
is likely to yield only attacks. And while “mowing the grass” represent an opportunity for
modest benefits. Bombing might have worked for a time in Gaza, America and its allies.
nuclear reactors (as Israel it is probably not a viable approach for
did in Iraq in 1981 and Syria managing Iran’s nuclear program. Iran’s Nuclear Hedging
in 2007) may buy up to a Strategy and Proliferation
decade of delay; bombing Calculus: Locked in a
a dispersed and hardened centrifuge program that grinding conflict with Iraq, Iran initiated its nuclear
can be quickly reconstituted would probably buy weapons program in the mid-1980s, acquiring
much less time. Iran will almost certainly rebuild technology and know-how. By the late 1990s, it
— perhaps in secret and possibly after expelling launched a secret crash effort to obtain nuclear
UN inspectors — and it might abandon its hedging weapons. However, its secret fissile material
strategy after a strike and go for a nuclear bomb. production program became public in 2002, and
For this reason, follow-on strikes might be after the US invaded Iraq in 2003, the Islamic
necessary months or years down the road — and Republic halted nearly all weapons-related work,
again after that. fearing an American attack if these activities were
discovered.
Both Israel and Iran, then,
face unpalatable options. Iran’s leadership had apparently Iran’s leadership had
For Israel, a preventive concluded that the potential risks and apparently concluded that
strike would need to the potential risks and costs
costs of building a bomb were greater of building a bomb were
maximize damage to
Iran’s nuclear than previously anticipated. Tehran greater than previously
infrastructure without thus adopted a nuclear hedging anticipated. Tehran thus
catalyzing a broader, strategy that has enabled it to create adopted a nuclear hedging
more destructive conflict a nuclear weapons option while strategy that has enabled it
that might preclude future managing the risks of doing so. to create a nuclear weapons
attacks. And while option while managing the
“mowing the grass” might have worked for a time risks of doing so. The resulting cautious, go-slow
in Gaza, it is probably not a viable approach for approach has on several occasions led Iran to
managing Iran’s nuclear program. Iran, for its part, temporarily halt or roll back elements of its program
would try to hit back hard enough to deter follow- in order to achieve other vital objectives: avoiding
on strikes, but not so hard as to spark a broader diplomatic censure, obtaining sanctions relief, and
conflict that could draw in the US and possibly gaining recognition of its “right to enrich.” This
leave its oil and gas infrastructure in shambles. approach has also enabled Iran to become a nuclear
threshold state, which may confer many of the
And domestic uncertainty in Israel (due to the benefits of having a bomb without the risks that
war in Gaza) and Iran (due to planning for the trying to get one would entail.
post–Ali Khamenei succession) argue against
risky moves by either at this time — though it is And the risks would be substantial. Given its
unclear how the Gaza war will affect Iran’s program’s penetration by foreign intelligence
calculus. Israeli policymakers would probably services, Iran has to assume it will get caught if it
prefer to defer a decision about a preventive tries to build a bomb, perhaps prompting an Israeli
strike, while Supreme Leader Khamenei will or U.S. military strike. So it will probably accumulate

a large stockpile of fissile material before should be augmented with several “smaller sticks”
attempting a breakout, to — information- and cyber-
ensure that significant Given Tehran’s apparent uncertainty driven influence activities
quantities survive a possible about how to proceed with its nuclear — as well as another big
strike. This will help jump- stick that Washington has
program, such influence activities might
start efforts to rebuild and often been reluctant to
tip the psychological balance in the
allow Iran to make more than employ — military
the handful of devices minds of key Iranian decisionmakers in signalling — in order to
initially envisaged by its favour of proliferation restraint and shape Iran’s proliferation
1990s-era crash program. convince the regime that deferring a calculus.
And then there are the decision on nuclear weapons continues
technical challenges of to be in its interest. Given Tehran’s apparent
bomb-making — not all of uncertainty about how to
which Iranian scientists have mastered. A large, proceed with its nuclear program, such influence
simple device for delivery by ship or aircraft might activities might tip the psychological balance in
take six months to build; a more compact device the minds of key Iranian decisionmakers in favour
for delivery by missiles might take 18 to 24 months. of proliferation restraint and convince the regime
This would create a window of vulnerability that that deferring a decision on nuclear weapons
Iran would need to cross before it got its first bomb. continues to be in its interest. Thus, relatively
small policy adjustments that play on Khamenei’s
For this reason, rather than dashing to a nuclear aversion to risk and the paranoia and
“breakout,” Tehran might attempt to “creep out”: conspiratorial thinking that characterize Iranian
moving slowly and deliberately, while conducting politics may yield potentially large policy payoffs.
low-signature weapons development activities at Influence activities should emphasize several
small clandestine sites in the hope that they would themes in order to shape the Islamic Republic’s
not be detected — or at least would not provoke a proliferation calculus:
military response if discovered. These dilemmas,
rooted in the very logic of its hedging strategy, Nuclear Weapons — a Two-Edged Sword: Iranian
create opportunities to shape the Iranian regime’s decisionmakers need to consider whether a
proliferation calculus by playing on its concerns country that has failed to protect its most senior
that an attempt to acquire nuclear scientists from
nuclear weapons could Iranian decisionmakers should foreign hit teams, its most
prompt a military strike, consider whether in a crisis or war, sensitive nuclear facilities
while they would contribute cyber-attacks or sabotage could cause from sabotage, and its
little to regime protection or nuclear missiles to be misdirected as a nuclear archives from
power projection. In this result of cyber manipulation, global theft, should build nuclear
way, Washington and its positioning system spoofing, or the weapons. After all, they
partners may induce Iran to intentional entry of incorrect target could be stolen by
further postpone a decision data so that they hit targets in Iran. To disaffected military
to weaponize — buying this end, the US and its partners should personnel or individuals
time to develop additional quietly demonstrate, from time to working for foreign
sources of leverage to time, their ability to penetrate intelligence services and
persuade the Islamic sensitive Iranian military command and used to threaten the
Republic to keep kicking the control networks with cyber tools. regime. Or they might be
(nuclear) can down the road. used without authorization
by hardline zealots against
Fostering Concerns about the Risks, Costs, and Israel or U.S. targets in the region, provoking a
Utility of the Bomb: The US and its European catastrophic nuclear response. Growing
partners have traditionally relied on a few “big disaffection in Iran will only magnify these risks
sticks” in their nuclear diplomacy with Tehran — in the coming years. Furthermore, Iranian
particularly the threat of diplomatic censure and decisionmakers should consider whether in a crisis
economic sanctions — and they should continue or war, cyber-attacks or sabotage could cause
wielding these sticks as best they can. But these nuclear missiles to be misdirected as a result of

cyber manipulation, global positioning system horrors of nuclear war. These films and others like
spoofing, or the intentional entry of incorrect them should be dubbed in Persian and made
target data so that they hit targets in Iran. To this available to Iranian audiences, while maps of
end, the US and its partners should quietly various Iranian cities that illustrate the effects of
demonstrate, from time to time, their ability to a nuclear blast should be made available to
penetrate sensitive Iranian military command and Iranians through social media. This will enable
control networks with cyber tools. Iranian citizens and policymakers to experience
Crisis Instability: The deployment of nuclear- the gut-wrenching feeling that many Americans
tipped missiles would create new capabilities as in the 1960s and 1970s experienced when
well as new dilemmas for the Islamic Republic. viewing such maps and assessing the odds of
Short missile flight times (seven to eight minutes) surviving a nuclear strike.
from Iran to Israel might A Proliferation Cascade:
cause the latter to adopt a Senior Iranian officials have
launch-on-warning nuclear Its hedging strategy may therefore be only occasionally evinced
posture and pre-delegate driven, at least in part, by a desire to concern that the country’s
use authority to military achieve nuclear threshold status nuclear program might set
commanders. This could without causing a cascade. If so, the off a regional proliferation
increase the risks of Iranian leadership is not succeeding. cascade that could
miscalculation during a Several regional states have already jeopardize the country’s
crisis or war. Thus, in the established civilian nuclear energy security. Why? They might
event of an attack, Israel programs — at least in part as a hedge believe that their neighbors
might not be able to discern against Iran’s nuclear program. And a are incapable of building
whether incoming Iranian proliferation cascade could eventually nuclear weapons or would
missiles were conventional make Iran’s hedging strategy not pose a threat were they
or nuclear. It would then untenable, causing it to build a bomb to do so, or that a
have to choose between to stay ahead of its neighbors. proliferation cascade
riding out what could be a would constrain the US and
devastating nuclear first Israel more than it would
strike or launching a nuclear “counterstrike” in Iran. Alternatively, Tehran may harbor such
response to what might turn out to be a concerns but may consider it unseemly to voice
conventional attack. Paradoxically, nuclear-armed them. Its hedging strategy may therefore be
missiles might undermine the utility of Iran’s large driven, at least in part, by a desire to achieve
conventional missile force. nuclear threshold status without causing a
Iran’s Nuclear Vulnerabilities: Public discussions cascade. If so, the Iranian leadership is not
in Iran have rarely addressed the potentially succeeding. Several regional states have already
devastating consequences of a nuclear strike, established civilian nuclear energy programs —
although former President Rafsanjani once mused at least in part as a hedge against Iran’s nuclear
about Israel’s vulnerability to a single nuclear program. And a proliferation cascade could
weapon due to its small size. Yet with 75 percent eventually make Iran’s hedging strategy
of its population living in cities and with greater untenable, causing it to build a bomb to stay
Tehran the home to 50 percent of its industry, 30 ahead of its neighbors. This might spark a nuclear
percent of all government workers, and more than arms race that could one day pose an existential
50 higher education institutions, Iran is also threat to Iran — yet another reason for nuclear
extremely vulnerable to a nuclear strike. restraint by Iran.
Consequently, it would benefit greatly from the The Utility of Nuclear Weapons: Supreme Leader
kind of discussion about nuclear weapons that Khamenei has sometimes questioned the military
occurred in the US and elsewhere in the 1960s utility of nuclear weapons, perhaps to provide an
and 1970s, thanks to the efforts of antinuclear after-the-fact justification (in addition to his so-
activists and movies such as On the Beach (1959), called “nuclear fatwa”) for his 2003 decision to
Fail-Safe (1964), and The Day After (1983), which halt Iran’s crash program. According to Khamenei,
educated citizens and policymakers about the nuclear weapons did not ensure the survival of

the Soviet Union, help the US in Vietnam, or region since 2021.) While the Iranian leadership
enable the Islamic Republic’s enemies to foil its has never doubted U.S. military capability, it has
regional designs. Likewise, come to doubt U.S.
Khamenei seems to believe While the Iranian leadership has never commitment and resolve.
that Israel’s nuclear arms doubted U.S. military capability, it has Accordingly, Tehran’s fears
will not prevent Iran and its come to doubt U.S. commitment and of U.S. military action have
proxies from destroying the resolve. Accordingly, Tehran’s fears of U.S. faded. This, however, may
Jewish state. Tehran’s be changing. Since early
military action have faded. This, however,
growing conventional 2023, the U.S. military has
may be changing. Since early 2023, the
missile and drone arsenal held a series of joint
might also lead it to U.S. military has held a series of joint exercises with Israel and
conclude that nuclear exercises with Israel and reinforced its reinforced its presence in
weapons are unnecessary presence in the Gulf with fighter aircraft, the Gulf with fighter aircraft,
— at least for now — bombers, and warships. bombers, and warships.
causing it to double down Some of these actions were
on its hedging strategy, while it inches ever closer likely taken to deter adversaries and assure
(in asymptotic fashion) to a nuclear weapons friends, in the wake of attempts by Tehran to seize
capability. foreign tankers in the Gulf and Russian efforts to
Finally, there is no evidence that the Islamic disrupt U.S. drone operations over Syria. Other
Republic sees nuclear weapons as essential to steps were likely intended to indicate that a U.S.
regime survival. If that were so, it would not have military option against Iran’s nuclear program is
agreed — just a few years still “on the table.”
after the 2009 Green Iran’s leadership has seen that while In the meanwhile, the US
Movement protests nearly every U.S. president since responded in March to the
revealed the extent of World War II has tried to avoid or to killing of an American
popular disaffection with extricate U.S. troops from military contractor in Syria by killing
the regime — to an interim entanglements in the Middle East, eight pro-Iranian
nuclear deal in 2013 and a nearly every single one has been militiamen in a strike on an
longer deal in 2015 that drawn into conflicts there. They Islamic Revolutionary
would have capped most of therefore should wonder whether Guard Corps facility there.
its nuclear activities for President Biden might be the next to In July, a U.S. Navy
over a decade. The do so if they are not careful. destroyer prevented Iranian
uncritical embrace of such naval vessels from seizing
a flawed assumption may two foreign oil tankers in the
lead to missed opportunities to influence Iran’s Gulf. In August, U.S. media reported that the US
proliferation calculus, and to failed policies. was considering the deployment of armed guards
The Threat of Force and U.S. Unpredictability: on tankers in the Gulf to prevent their diversion
Fears of U.S. military action in 2003 and foreign by Iran. And in response to the Gaza war,
intelligence penetrations of its nuclear program Washington sent two carrier strike groups to the
caused Tehran to eventually adopt a nuclear eastern Mediterranean. These demonstrations of
hedging strategy; threats of Israeli military action resolve — signaling the need for Tehran to tread
between 2010 and 2012 encouraged Iran to carefully — may help deter future attacks and
continue down this path. Yet in recent years, U.S. convince the Islamic Republic that Washington
leaders have generally been reluctant to take might act if it attempted a nuclear breakout.
steps that could lend credibility to their pledges Iran’s leadership has seen that while nearly every
that Iran will never get the bomb, satisfying U.S. president since World War II has tried to avoid
themselves with performative gestures that entail or to extricate U.S. troops from military
little risk — such as the dispatch of carrier strike entanglements in the Middle East, nearly every
groups to the Gulf and B-52 presence patrols single one has been drawn into conflicts there.
there. (Now focused on the Indo-Pacific region, They therefore should wonder whether President
the U.S. Navy has not had a carrier in the Gulf Biden might be the next to do so if they are not

careful. Indeed, President Biden’s impassioned Eisenhower envisaged atomic energy as a way to
speech following a brutal terrorist attack by the build bridges between nations. Yet today, as an
Gaza-based Palestinian increasing number of
Hamas organization that Russia has also weaponized nuclear countries in the Global
killed more 1,300 Israelis power by occupying and refusing to South show interest in the
and resulted in the operate the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear carbon-free technology and
abduction of 200 more may Power Plant in Ukraine and is view its adoption as a sign
mark the beginning of just jeopardizing global security by of geopolitical strength,
such a policy turnabout. threatening to use tactical nuclear Russia has capitalized on
Under such circumstances, weapons, in spite of its status as a this opportunity to entrench
Tehran may worry that an permanent member of the UNSC and itself in worldwide nuclear
Israeli military strike on founding member of the NPT. markets, while China waits
Iran could drag in the US. in the wings to do the same.
Keep the Hedger Hedging: Whether Tehran The world currently has sixty nuclear
continues hedging or attempts to build a bomb reactors under construction, of which more than
will be influenced greatly by how America and its one-third are Russian-designed. Combined with
allies shape Iran’s assessment of whether it would projects under planning or negotiation, Russia
get caught attempting a breakout; the odds of an currently enjoys more than 40 percent of the
Israeli or U.S. military response to such a step; global nuclear reactor export market in various
and the risks, costs, and utility of nuclear weapons. forms, including power plant construction,
Yet because Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei seems investments, provision of enriched uranium, and
uncertain about how to proceed with Iran’s disposal of spent fuel. Russia has also weaponized
nuclear program, relatively nuclear power by occupying
small policy adjustments For Russia, nuclear power represents and refusing to operate the
may yield large policy another geopolitical weapon, similar Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power
payoffs. This only to oil and gas. Its state nuclear Plant in Ukraine and is
underscores the need for company, Rosatom, works analogously jeopardizing global security
America and its allies to to Gazprom in leveraging energy trade by threatening to use
use all means available to for political ends. Rosatom has tactical nuclear weapons, in
shape the Islamic provided loans for strategic nuclear spite of its status as a
Republic’s proliferation power projects abroad, including permanent member of the
calculus in accordance Astravyets in Belarus, Akkuyu in UNSC and founding member
with a policy of dissuasion, Turkey, El Dabaa in Egypt, and of the NPT.
deterrence, and delay, in Rooppur in Bangladesh. Russia’s actions compel a
order to “keep the hedger thorough review of the
hedging” — and to keep it kicking the (nuclear) geopolitics of nuclear energy. The US must play a
can down the road. forceful role in ensuring that nuclear technologies
Source: https://warontherocks.com/2023/10/ contribute to the global order rather than be
americas-failing-iran-nuclear-policy-time-for-a- weaponized against it. In that endeavor, Japan can
course-adjustment/. 20 October 2023. be an invaluable ally. Facing new challenges for
peaceful use of atomic energy against the
OPINION – Julia Nesheiwat, Shoichi Itoh backdrop of Russian and Chinese-induced
geopolitical instability, Tokyo and Washington
Atoms for Peace 2.0: The Case for a Stronger
should redouble their commitment to competing
US-Japan Nuclear Power Alliance
in the international nuclear energy market.
Since US President Eisenhower’s “Atoms for
For Russia, nuclear power represents another
Peace” speech at the UNGA in 1953, the nuclear
geopolitical weapon, similar to oil and gas. Its
energy landscape has changed dramatically.
state nuclear company, Rosatom, works
analogously to Gazprom compliance with the NPT

in leveraging energy trade A nuclear reactor race has begun principle of peaceful atomic
for political ends. Rosatom between democracies and authoritarian energy use. Given such
has provided loans for states, and the latter are currently recklessness, it cannot be
strategic nuclear power ahead. Nuclear projects are capital- ruled out that Moscow is
projects abroad, including intensive with lengthy time horizons, helping non-democratic
Astravyets in Belarus, and authoritarian powers’ intention to states develop reactors in
Akkuyu in Turkey, El Dabaa distribute nuclear reactors in developing contravention of
in Egypt, and Rooppur in countries is motivated by more than internationally accepted
Bangladesh. China has commerce. Russian and Chinese state- rules regarding management
also identified the nuclear backed nuclear entities accrue of nuclear fuels, related
industry as a strategic geopolitical influence beyond mere technologies, and fissile
sector and is gathering commercial interests. materials. Meanwhile, amid
market share with its tensions with the West,
relatively cheap nuclear reactors, including the China is leaning on Russia’s increasing provision
introduction of its Hualong One reactor in of highly enriched uranium to scale up its military
Pakistan and Argentina. Saudi Arabia is also and civilian nuclear aspirations.
reportedly interested in the Chinese reactor
design. The US and Japan should counter these actions in
support of a norms-based nuclear energy trade.
A nuclear reactor race has begun between The US is the world’s single-largest operator of
democracies and nuclear reactors with a fleet
authoritarian states, and of ninety-three in operation.
The US and Japan should counter these
the latter are currently Japan—with whom the US
actions in support of a norms-based
ahead. Nuclear projects has consolidated one of the
nuclear energy trade. The US is the
are capital-intensive with strongest bilateral civilian
world’s single-largest operator of
lengthy time horizons, and nuclear partnerships—has
nuclear reactors with a fleet of ninety-
authoritarian powers’ the fifth-largest fleet in the
three in operation. Japan—with whom
intention to distribute world with thirty-three
the US has consolidated one of the
nuclear reactors in reactors. Such experience
strongest bilateral civilian nuclear
developing countries is and expertise in operating
partnerships—has the fifth-largest
motivated by more than atomic energy assets should
fleet in the world with thirty-three
commerce. Russian and be put to use internationally
reactors.
Chinese state-backed as the global nuclear energy
nuclear entities accrue market expands in response
geopolitical influence beyond mere commercial to energy security and climate challenges. Over
interests. The risk is that a short-sighted the past six decades, Japan has become a key US
approach may inexorably lead to a diminished partner with regard to the development of nuclear
role for democracies in the growing international technologies and facilities. A nuclear partnership
nuclear industry. between the US and Japan that promotes research
and development and accelerates
By contrast, nuclear vendors from democratic commercialization of next-generation nuclear
states, including the US and Japan, have engaged reactor innovations—including SMRs—could
the civilian nuclear market with business address energy insecurity globally and spread best
principles as opposed to geopolitical influence. practices in nuclear safety.
That approach risks pushing the NPT regime
toward collapse if the nuclear industry of the The US-Japan strategic collaboration on supporting
democratic world forfeits market share to deployment of SMRs in Ghana, announced in
authoritarian rivals. With its hostage-taking of October 2022, is an example of such a partnership.
the Zaporizhzhia plant, Russia has eschewed strict
Following this example, the two allies should surprise attack on 7th October and the ensuing
pursue commitments to the other countries in Israeli war on Gaza have thrown a curveball at
agreement with the IAEA’s standards of nuclear Riyadh’s plans. Analysts have speculated that one
safety, security and of Hamas’s motives was to
nonproliferation for the The Kingdom has made it clear that this disrupt normalisation talks
sake of sustaining the NPT would come with strings attached, between Israel and Saudi
regime. Re-establishing a chief among them being the transfer Arabia.
visionary nuclear energy of nuclear technology and advanced “Saudi Arabia is currently
strategy should be an thinking long-term regarding
weaponry from the US. But Hamas’
economic and geopolitical its economic diversification
surprise attack on 7th October and the
priority for the democratic and increasing its political
world. The US-Japan ensuing Israeli war on Gaza have clout in the region, and a
alliance should assume the thrown a curveball at Riyadh’s plans. nuclear programme is still
leadership in peaceful Analysts have speculated that one of part of this” In the past 12
atomic energy Hamas’s motives was to disrupt days since the Hamas
collaboration, along with normalisation talks between Israel and attacks, Israel has
the IAEA, lest deeper Saudi Arabia. bombarded the besieged
Russian and Chinese Gaza Strip, killing at least
penetration of the global nuclear market erode 3,700 Palestinians. Amid mounting concerns over
NPT safeguards. immense civilian harm, Saudi Arabia has paused
Source: https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ normalisation talks. Even before the latest
energysource/atoms-for-peace-2-0-the-case-for- violence, Riyadh’s move towards normalisation
a-stronger-us-japan-nuclear-power-alliance/. 23 with Israel was cautious, seeking to avoid criticism
October 2023. that it was neglecting a resolution to the
Palestinian issue. One of its conditions was
OPINION – Jonathan Fenton-Harvey
Palestinian statehood. This doesn’t mean
What’s Behind Saudi Arabia’s Quest for a normalisation is off the table.
Nuclear Programme?
Indeed, Saudi Arabia is currently thinking long-term
Saudi Arabia’s heightened interest in nuclear regarding its economic diversification and
capabilities has become a focal point of recent increasing its political clout in the region, and a
regional debates, a sentiment that intensified nuclear programme is still part of this. For now,
following a rare interview Riyadh prefers to tread
with Saudi Crown Prince While nuclear energy is cited as a carefully amid the
Mohammad bin Salman renewable and efficient source of uncertainty of war and
(MbS) in September 2023. energy, Riyadh has continued its promote a humanitarian
“If they get one, we have reliance on hydrocarbons while and diplomatic solution.
to get one,”…hinting at developing new renewable sources of Given the risks of a wider
concerns over Iran’s energy such as wind and solar. regional conflict following
potential ambitions to Israel’s assault on Gaza,
Therefore, economic considerations
acquire a nuclear bomb. particularly with Iran-
are apparently not the primary motive.
However, he was quick to backed factions, MbS called
emphasise a desire for regional stability and Iranian President Raisi on
security, stating, “but we don’t want to see that”. 12 October to discuss regional stability and unity
Saudi Arabia has shown interest in being part of amid the Gaza crisis. This indicates that amid fears
the US-backed Abraham Accords, joining several of an escalation with Iran, particularly as the US
Arab countries including fellow Gulf states the pre-emptively accused Iran of backing Hamas’
UAE and Bahrain in normalising relations with attack, Riyadh is trying to balance relations with
Israel. The Kingdom has made it clear that this Tehran and ensure that newly re-established
would come with strings attached, chief among bilateral ties remain smooth…
them being the transfer of nuclear technology and While nuclear energy is cited as a renewable and
advanced weaponry from the US. But Hamas’ efficient source of energy, Riyadh has continued

its reliance on hydrocarbons while developing new are others that are bidding, and obviously, we
renewable sources of energy such as wind and would like to build our programme with the best
solar. Therefore, economic technology in the world,
considerations are For Saudi Arabia, therefore, the real and that will require a
apparently not the primary game seems to be more geopolitical, certain agreement to be in
motive. “Considering global not economic or environmental,” he place,” Prince Faisal bin
concerns about climate added. Although Saudi Arabia has Farhan said during a joint
change, it’s surprising to made strides in its nuclear program, its press conference with
place Saudi Arabia at the capabilities remain in their infancy. Secretary of State Antony
forefront [of a shift towards Blinken in June 2023. The
nuclear energy],” Henry Sokolski, head of the US, although a preferred partner, is one of many
Nonproliferation Policy Education Centre and former bidders. The China National Nuclear Corporation
deputy for non-proliferation policy in the US made a proposal in August to construct nuclear
Defense Department, told The New Arab. “With its power facilities in Saudi Arabia, which Riyadh
abundant solar resources, and reserves of natural reportedly considered. This can be interpreted
and frackable gas, there are other avenues to as Riyadh sending a message to Washington
explore for energy production. For Saudi Arabia, that it can acquire nuclear technology elsewhere
therefore, the real game seems to be more if needed.
geopolitical, not economic or environmental,” he Indeed, China has already helped Saudi Arabia
added. Although Saudi Arabia has made strides in in building a ballistic missile initiative, which
its nuclear program, its capabilities remain in their could serve as a delivery system for prospective
infancy. nuclear warheads in the
At present, their nuclear China has already helped Saudi Arabia future. In the energy
infrastructure is limited to a in building a ballistic missile initiative, sector, China has already
single research reactor at which could serve as a delivery system become a major investor in
the King Abdulaziz City for for prospective nuclear warheads in the Kingdom’s solar
Science and Technology. the future. In the energy sector, China energy, due to its
However, it has long stated has already become a major investor dominance in supply
ambitions to improve its in the Kingdom’s solar energy, due to chains. But since China
nuclear capabilities. In May its dominance in supply chains. But brokered the
2022, Saudi Arabia sought since China brokered the rapprochement between
technical proposals for the rapprochement between Saudi Arabia Saudi Arabia and Iran in
building of two nuclear and Iran in March, Washington has March, Washington has
reactors, and in January doubled down on relations with its doubled down on relations
2023, Riyadh confirmed the Gulf state partners, reminding them of with its Gulf state partners,
nation’s plan to utilise its the benefits of US security support. reminding them of the
local uranium reserves to benefits of US security
create LEU as nuclear fuel. support. The combination
Riyadh has also made minor nuclear uranium of US capabilities and its security umbrella might
discoveries. “Saudi Arabia has so far comparatively be more attractive to Riyadh. “MbS can acquire
little experience in the nuclear field. It will have to nuclear technology from other countries, such
rely on foreign partners to set up nuclear as France, South Korea, China, or Russia. Yet if
technology capacities and infrastructure,” said he does that, he risks alienating Washington and
Hibbs. “Riyadh is now looking for a path to future potentially compromising congressional backing
uranium enrichment as a condition for nuclear for further advanced military sales,” said
cooperation with the US,” he explained. ... Sokolski.
Evaluating Potential Partners: Riyadh has Transparency and Proliferation: Even if
expressed a desire to explore nuclear relations with Washington is poised to be Riyadh’s most
Washington and considers it a top partner, suitable nuclear partner, any journey to nuclear
particularly owing to the US’s strong reputation for capability is not without challenges and
nuclear engineering and technical expertise. There concerns. Observers are particularly worried

about nuclear proliferation in the region and

transparency concerns. “Saudi Arabia has deep OPINION – Ankit Panda
pockets and a growing engineering project
management track record, We are Sleepwalking into
and it should be able to Nuclear policy, like much of U.S. a New Nuclear Arms Race
succeed in setting up and defense policy, has rarely been In the coming months,
operating nuclear power informed by the views of the American Americans will hear more
plants,” said Hibbs. “There
public. On the contrary, the community about nuclear weapons
are outstanding questions
of experts who drive how America and their critical role in our
about whether Riyadh will
postures its nuclear forces and national security than they
fully dedicate its nuclear have in years. In particular,
project to international determine what must be done to they’ll be told that for the
transparency, especially in implement the president’s vision is first time in the more than
view of its competition with relatively small. 30 years since the Cold
Iran,” he added. “Were War ended, nuclear
Saudi Arabia to withhold from the IAEA critical weapons are more important than ever. They’ll be
information about its nuclear activities, that would told that China’s recent and unprecedented
increase tensions in the region but also between decision to massively build up its nuclear arsenal
rivalling global powers,” said Hibbs, explaining means the US must follow suit. They’ll be told that
that this could hinder the Kingdom’s ambitions. to choose otherwise is foolish and even
“Even if Washington is poised to be Riyadh’s most dangerous. The American people deserve and
suitable nuclear partner, any journey to nuclear want to be armed with the knowledge to ask the
capability is not without challenges and concerns” right questions about nuclear proliferation and its
“Constructing a nuclear facility creates further importance for the national security of the US in
risks. In the Middle East alone, numerous nuclear the coming years.
plants have been hit militarily over the years, such
as in Syria, Israel, and Iran. Nuclear policy, like much of U.S. defense policy,
has rarely been informed by
So building new ones adds the views of the American
another layer to the threat Last year, the Department noted that public. On the contrary, the
of regional escalation,” said if China continued building nuclear community of experts who
Sokolski. For now, facing weapons at the rate it appears to be drive how America
several hurdles, such as the today, it may have as many as 1,500 postures its nuclear forces
need for approval from nuclear weapons by 2035. Last week, a and determine what must
Congress and Israel’s bipartisan group of experts, be done to implement the
reservations about Saudi representing a range of views on president ’s vision is
nuclear weapons, produced a report
uranium enrichment, as
for Congress that recommended, in no relatively small. The
well as Riyadh’s
uncertain terms, that the US must choices the US makes with
disengagement from
respond to this—and other regard to its own nuclear
normalisation talks, the
developments—by preparing to forces can either
path to an agreement quantitatively build up its own forces heighten—or reduce—the
remains clouded. Yet these (among other measures). risk of nuclear war. Right
past negotiations underpin now, too many American
how Riyadh still sees nuclear experts are beginning to warm up to
Washington as a crucial partner, despite its the idea of an arms race—and, if they have their
delicate balance to diversify relations between way, this arms race is likely to look quite different
global powers. from its Cold War predecessor. They are concerned
Source: https://www.newarab.com/analysis/ that the US will face a security challenge that is
whats-behind-saudi-arabias-quest-nuclear- unprecedented since the end of the Cold War:
programme. 19 October 2023. China is building up the number of nuclear
weapons it possesses and will, sometime in the

2030s, join Russia as a nuclear “peer” of the US. Americans to share concerns that the world is
This is True: Beginning in 2021, satellite imagery fundamentally more primed for conflict between
collected by independent, nongovernmental major powers than it has been in decades.
analysts showed that Beijing had started building Russia’s brutal invasion of Ukraine, backed by
a large number of intercontinental-ballistic overt and covert nuclear threats, paired with
missile silos in its western desert. Before this, in China’s more muscular foreign policy in its
2020, the U.S. Department of Defense had publicly neighborhood are legitimate sources of concern
noted that China possessed a nuclear force for anyone seeking a fairer, more just world, built
numbering warheads in the “low-200s,” a fraction on universal principles and norms. Against this
of the 1,800 or so nuclear weapons the US deploys. backdrop, arms control—an important tool for
Last year, the Department noted that if China predictability and transparency—has considerably
continued building nuclear weapons at the rate it frayed. The last remaining U.S.-Russia treaty on
appears to be today, it may have as many as 1,500 strategic nuclear arms was suspended by Moscow
nuclear weapons by 2035. Last week, a bipartisan earlier this year.
group of experts, representing a range of views But when Americans are told that the answer to
on nuclear weapons, produced a report for these problems will be found with a decision to
Congress that recommended, in no uncertain reverse decades of progress toward lowering the
terms, that the US must role of nuclear weapons in U.S. national strategy,
respond to this—and other they should be skeptical.
d e v e l o p m e n t s — b y Russia’s brutal invasion of Ukraine, While no word in
preparing to quantitatively backed by overt and covert nuclear Washington is perceived to
build up its own forces threats, paired with China’s more convey more legitimacy
(among other measures). If muscular foreign policy in its unto a policy product than
followed, the neighborhood are legitimate sources “bipartisan,” the Strategic
recommendations of this of concern for anyone seeking a fairer, Posture Commission report
Strategic Posture more just world, built on universal does not, in its topline
Commission, as the group principles and norms. Against this recommendations, match
is known, would mark a backdrop, arms control—an important the true scope of debate
dramatic reversal of more tool for predictability and around these issues in
than three decades of transparency—has considerably Washington. Most notably,
continuity in American frayed. the Biden administration
nuclear policy, and itself appears to diverge
supercharge a new arms race. substantially from the recommendations made by
After the Cold War ended, the George H.W. Bush this Commission.
administration unilaterally drew down literally In a speech this June, Jake Sullivan, the
thousands of nuclear weapons deployed president’s adviser on national security affairs,
worldwide—partly as a gesture of goodwill to noted that “the United States does not need to
Moscow that Washington would not seek increase our nuclear forces to outnumber the
unilateral advantage as the Soviet Union combined total of our competitors in order to
crumbled. Since then, the number of deployed U.S. successfully deter them.” He added that “we’ve
nuclear weapons have slowly trended downwards been there,” and “we’ve learned that lesson”—
over Republican and Democratic administration: referring to the Cold War arms race. Proponents
a consequence of arms control, unilateral nuclear of a U.S. nuclear buildup like to note that Russia
policy choices, and normative considerations. and China have already chosen to build up, so
The Commission writes that they partly arrived at why shouldn’t we? As Sullivan suggests, the
their recommendations in light of evidence that compulsion to “do something” in response to the
“the U.S.-led international order and the values it other side was the source of many poor decisions
upholds are at risk from the Chinese and Russian during the Cold War. That same compulsion is
authoritarian regimes.” It is reasonable for widely felt today as more and more American
nuclear policy experts grow more uncomfortable

with the prospect that American nuclear like a laudable objective, it was in no small part
superiority—a fact largely taken for granted in the
responsible for contributing to arms-racing
post–Cold War decades—may be coming to a dynamics during the Cold War and even
close. heightening the risk of unwanted nuclear war in
The US can still choose to avoid an arms race, a serious crisis. Washington might reassess the
and it should make this wisdom of such an
choice because its security The US can still choose to avoid an approach and adopt a
interests can be better arms race, and it should make this strategy that instead
served through other choice because its security interests understands that nuclear
means—even in a world can be better served through other deterrence can hold with a
where the combined means—even in a world where the smaller number of
number of Russian and combined number of Russian and deployed nuclear weapons:
Chinese nuclear weapons Chinese nuclear weapons aimed at our As long as any American
aimed at our homeland is homeland is greater than our deployed adversary can be assured
greater than our deployed forces by a factor of two. Nuclear that the US will be able to
forces by a factor of two. deterrence, after all, does not demand retaliate for any nuclear
Nuclear deterrence, after nuclear superiority. attack against our
all, does not demand homeland or our allies and
nuclear superiority; the compulsion felt among deliver unacceptable damage in return,
many in Washington to build up is a product, deterrence might hold. And nuclear weapons
instead, of how the US has done nuclear strategy aren’t the sole contributors to avoiding the failure
since the 1960s. There are other ways forward, of deterrence; America’s capable conventional
and the American people should ask the experts, forces play a role, too.
thinkers, and leaders who work through these
issues to consider these better alternatives. For Finally, proponents of a build-up should be careful
instance, one solution what they wish for. One
might be found today with Missiles armed with conventional reason to avoid an arms race
non-nuclear technologies warheads have grown so precise and in the twenty-first century is
and weapons. Missiles capable that, for years, Russian and simply that the US is not
armed with conventional Chinese experts have been concerned well positioned to win one.
warheads have grown so that such capabilities could degrade For starters, fiscal and
precise and capable that, their nuclear forces. As Sullivan political constraints in
for years, Russian and suggested in June, one answer for the Washington mean that the
Chinese experts have been US could be offsetting any new country will never go back
concerned that such perceived nuclear “gap” with to spending close to what it
capabilities could degrade upgraded conventional weapons that once spent, as a percentage
their nuclear forces. As might be fit for purpose. of GDP, on nuclear weapons
Sullivan suggested in June, and national defense. With
one answer for the US could be offsetting any new defense spending already bulging close to $800
perceived nuclear “gap” with upgraded billion in nominal terms, various constituencies
conventional weapons that might be fit for within the Department of Defense feel that their
purpose. priorities are not being met; allowing nuclear
weapons spending to surge would be both
Another solution may be found through a
infeasible and imprudent. More practically, the
wholesale rethink of how the US implements its
US is already modernizing its nuclear forces and
strategy of nuclear deterrence. Beginning in the
has budgeted to do so. The decisions driving this
1960s, the US moved toward a strategy that
modernization should not be treated as
privileges the limitation of damage against its
sacrosanct, but the plans are already sealed into
homeland in a nuclear war. While this may sound
hard-fought programs of record, which have very

little leeway for expansion or change. In fact, important questions that deserve serious thought
choosing to alter these realities will undoubtedly and consideration. American taxpayers and
eat into other non-nuclear defense priorities that citizens are owed better answers than those
could actually play a much recommendations that
more important role in A Pentagon report on China’s military would see the country
deterring the emergence of power says Beijing is exceeding sleepwalk into a nuclear
a major crisis with American previous projections of how quickly it buildup out of a
adversaries that could is building up its nuclear weapons compulsion to “do
spiral into a war where arsenal and is “almost certainly ” something” about what
nuclear weapons become learning lessons from Russia’s war in America’s authoritarian
salient. Ukraine about what a conflict over adversaries have chosen to
Taiwan might look like. China may be do with their own nuclear
A final arms-racing pursuing a new intercontinental weapons. Keeping the US
constraint is America’s missile system using conventional arms and its allies secure does
ability to actually build that, if fielded, would allow Beijing “to not require making choices
more nuclear weapons. threaten conventional strikes against that lead to an arms race
Early in an arms race, the US targets in the continental US, Hawaii that will inevitably
could get away with what’s and Alaska. endanger everyone.
known as “uploading ”
existing forces: removing Source: https://
warheads from storage and putting more of them newrepublic. com/article/176118/new-nuclear-
on our currently deployed submarines and arms-race-washington. 24 October 2023.
intercontinental missiles. But should Russia and
NUCLEAR STRATEGY
China, two authoritarian states with far more
political and economic flexibility to respond do CHINA
so along similar lines, the US would find itself
hard-pressed to build more nuclear weapons. China Expanding Nuclear Arsenal Much Faster
America’s plan to build plutonium pits is than Predicted, US Report Says
hamstrung by cost overruns, mismanagement, A Pentagon report on China’s military power says
and delays, and is designed to do little more than Beijing is exceeding previous projections of how
support the maintenance of aging nuclear quickly it is building up its nuclear weapons
weapons, in any case. arsenal and is “almost certainly” learning lessons
Nuclear deterrence doubtless remains important from Russia’s war in Ukraine about what a conflict
for U.S. national security and the security of over Taiwan might look like. The report released
American allies. It has, for instance, allowed the on October 16 also warns that China may be
US and our European partners to arm Ukraine pursuing a new intercontinental missile system
without suffering Russian attacks. (At the same using conventional arms that, if fielded, would
time it has also restricted our ability to further allow Beijing “to threaten conventional strikes
help the Ukrainians by making the prospect of against targets in the continental US, Hawaii and
directed armed involvement in Ukraine too risky.) Alaska.” The China report comes a month before
The changing global nuclear environment and the an expected meeting between Chinese leader Xi
fever that’s gripped nuclear experts in Washington Jinping and President Biden on the sidelines of
amid the emergence of “two nuclear peers” in the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in
Russia and China are likely to elevate these San Francisco. The annual report, required by
questions in national politics. For the first time Congress, is one way the Pentagon measures the
since the end of the Cold War, presidential growing military capabilities of China, which the
candidates may be asked about nuclear weapons, US government sees as its key threat in the region
arms races, and even nuclear war. These are and America’s primary long-term security
challenge.

But after Hamas’s 7 October attacks on Israel, Source: https://www.theguardian.com/world/

the US has been forced again to focus on the 2023/oct/20/china-expanding-nuclear-arsenal-
Middle East, instead of its widely promoted pivot much-faster-than-predicted-us-report-says. 20
to the Pacific to counter China’s growth. The US October 2023.
is rushing weapons to Israel while continuing to
support and deliver munitions to Ukraine in its PAKISTAN
20-month struggle to repel Russia’s invasion. Still, Pakistan Test-Fires Ababeel Nuclear Missile
the Pentagon’s national defense strategy is
shaped around China remaining the greatest Pakistan has test-fired an Ababeel missile capable
security challenge for the US, and that the threat of carrying multiple warheads that can attack
from Beijing will determine how the US military different targets. Pakistan last tested the multiple
is equipped and shaped for the future. The independently targetable reentry vehicles-capable
Pentagon report builds on weapon on Jan. 24, 2017.
the military’s warning in Pentagon’s national defense strategy is The military ’s media
2022 that China was shaped around China remaining the branch, ISPR Pakistan,
expanding its nuclear force greatest security challenge for the US, stated 15 October’s test
much faster than US and that the threat from Beijing will was meant to revalidate
officials had predicted, determine how the US military is “various design, technical
highlighting a broad and equipped and shaped for the future. parameters, and
accelerating buildup of The Pentagon report builds on the performance evaluation of
military muscle designed to military’s warning in 2022 that China different sub-systems” and
enable Beijing to match or was expanding its nuclear force much was “aimed at
surpass US global power by faster than US officials had predicted. strengthening deterrence
midcentury. and enhancing strategic
stability in the region.” The
Last year’s report warned that Beijing was rapidly Strategic Plans Division, which handles Pakistan’s
modernizing its nuclear force and was on track to nuclear deterrent, did not respond to Defense
nearly quadruple the number of warheads it has News’ request for information about the latest
to 1,500 by 2035. The US has 3,750 active nuclear test. In 2017, the public relations organization
warheads. The 2023 report finds that Beijing is stated the Ababeel had a 2,200-kilometer (1,367-
on pace to field more than 1,000 nuclear mile) range and was developed to ensure the
warheads by 2030, continuing a rapid “survivability of Pakistan’s ballistic missiles” in a
modernization aimed at meeting Xi’s goal of region in which state actors are bolstering
having a “world class” military by 2049. After the countermeasures. ...
previous report, China accused the US of
ratcheting up tensions and Beijing said it was still Source: https://www.defensenews.com/global/
committed to a “no first use” policy on nuclear asia-pacific/2023/10/21/pakistan-test-fires-
weapons. ababeel-nuclear-missile/. 21 October 2023.
The Pentagon has seen no indication that China RUSSIA

is moving away from that policy but assesses Russia’s Vladimir Putin Pictured in China with
there may be some circumstances where China ‘Nuclear Briefcase’: What it Contains
might judge that it does not apply, a senior US
defense official said without providing details. Russian President Putin was filmed in China
The official briefed reporters on 15 October on accompanied by officers carrying the so-called
condition of anonymity before the report’s nuclear briefcase on October 18. The footage,
release. The US does not adhere to a “no first which was released by Chinese state media,
use” policy and says nuclear weapons would be showed President Putin walking to a meeting with
used only in “extreme circumstances”…. Chinese President Xi surrounded by security and
followed by two Russian naval officers in uniform
each carrying a briefcase. The nuclear briefcase be at the White House. The Ukraine war has
is a specially outfitted briefcase that contains the raised tensions between Moscow and Washington
codes and other materials that the Russian to the highest level since the 1962 Cuban Missile
president would need to Crisis just as China seeks to
authorize a nuclear strike. The nuclear briefcase is a specially bolster its nuclear arsenal to
It is always accompanied outfitted briefcase that contains the accord with its status as an
by the president, even codes and other materials that the emerging superpower….The
when he is traveling Russian president would need to briefcase is essentially a
abroad. Russia’s nuclear authorize a nuclear strike. It is always secure communication
briefcase is generally accompanied by the president, even instrument that connects the
carried by a naval when he is traveling abroad. Russia’s president to his military top
commander. The nuclear briefcase is generally carried by commanders and, from
briefcase, dubbed the a naval commander. The briefcase, there, to rocket troops via the
“Cheget” (after Mount dubbed the “Cheget” (after Mount highly classified “Kazbek”
Cheget in the Caucasus Cheget in the Caucasus Mountains), is electronic command-and-
Mountains), is always always with the president but is rarely control network. Kazbek also
with the president but is videotaped. supports the “Kavkaz”
rarely videotaped. “There system.
are certain suitcases without which no trip of
President Putin’s is complete,” the Kremlin Source: https://www.businesstoday.in/latest/
correspondents of state news agency RIA said in world/story/russias-vladimir-putin-pictured-in-
a Telegram post alongside the footage…. china-with-nuclear-briefcase-what-it-contains-
402826-2023-10-20. 20 October 2023.
“This is not a coincidence,” Rebekah Koffler,
Russia Says It Rehearsed
president of Doctrine &
Strategy Consulting and a Russia and the US conduct regular ‘Massive’ Nuclear Strike
former Defense Intelligence nuclear readiness simulations - Moscow Russia has rehearsed its
Agency officer, told Fox has traditionally held its own towards ability to deliver a
News Digital. “The Kremlin the end of October. The exercises this “massive” nuclear strike,
almost certainly year involved “delivering a massive the Kremlin says. The
deliberately orchestrated nuclear strike by strategic offensive military exercise involved
the filming of President forces in response to an enemy nuclear delivering a “response to
Putin’s version of the strike”, Mr Shoigu reported to President an enemy nuclear strike”,
‘nuclear football’ – which is Putin. Defence Minister Shoigu
almost never done — and said. State TV showed him
had the Russian media, which the Kremlin recounting the rehearsal to President Putin. It
controls, highlight the fact that ‘certain suitcases’ comes as Russia’s parliament backed the
always accompany the Russian president on withdrawal of Moscow’s ratification of a global
trips,”…Mr Putin’s trip to China came at a time treaty that bans all physical testing of nuclear
when he needed to rally support for his cause at warheads. Russia and the US conduct regular
home, since his invasion of Ukraine has dragged nuclear readiness simulations - Moscow has
on for 20 months longer than the roughly two traditionally held its own towards the end of
weeks his advisors predicted would be required October. The exercises this year involved
to conquer Kyiv and then take control of the “delivering a massive nuclear strike by strategic
country. offensive forces in response to an enemy nuclear
The US president has a similar device, dubbed the strike”, Mr Shoigu reported to President Putin. A
“nuclear football.” The satchel holds the codes Kremlin statement said that “practical launches
the president would use to authenticate an order of ballistic and cruise missiles” had taken place.
to launch nuclear missiles should he or she not A Yars intercontinental ballistic missile was fired
from a test site in Russia’s far-east, and another of the failure of eight states, upon whose
missile was fired from a nuclear-powered ratification the entry into force of the treaty
submarine in the Barents Sea, the statement said. depends: China, the Democratic People’s Republic
of Korea, Egypt, India, Iran, Israel, Pakistan and
Earlier this October, President Putin said Russia the US. The TPNW is the only international treaty
had held a “final successful test” of a nuclear- in force with a categorical ban on nuclear testing
powered cruise missile. The experimental (Article 1(a)). The move by the Russian Duma
weapon, first announced in 2018, was hailed as came after explicit calls from Russian President
having a potentially unlimited range, but President Putin to withdraw from the
Putin’s account has not treaty. On Friday October
been independently Earlier this October, President Putin 6th, President Putin stated
confirmed. The latest tests said Russia had held a “final successful that, in regards to the CTBT,
will be seen as a display test” of a nuclear-powered cruise he sees it fit to “mirror the
of force which coincides missile. The experimental weapon, first manner of the US,” which has
with Moscow de-ratifying announced in 2018, was hailed as signed but not ratified the
an international nuclear having a potentially unlimited range, treaty, and revoke Russia’s
test ban treaty. Parliament but President Putin’s account has not ratification. He added that
completed the passage of been independently confirmed. The “this is a question for the
a law that withdraws latest tests will be seen as a display of State Duma [lower house of
Russia’s ratification of the force which coincides with Moscow de- the Federal Assembly of
treaty on October 22. Mr ratifying an international nuclear test Russia] deputies. In theory,
Putin called upon ban treaty. this ratification could be
ministers to back the revoked.” On October 9th,
change to reflect the position of the US, which the Duma’s Committee on International Affairs
signed but never ratified the CTBT. The CTBT, was instructed to contact the Russian Foreign
agreed in 1996, bans “any nuclear weapon test Ministry to look into the issue of withdrawing the
explosion or any other nuclear explosion” ratification of the CTBT. As a signatory to the
anywhere in the world. Russia waged a full-scale Treaty, Russia still retains
invasion in Ukraine in the responsibility not to
February 2022, raising The TPNW is the only international engage in any behaviour
concerns over nuclear war. treaty in force with a categorical ban that would defeat the
In June, Russia stationed a on nuclear testing (Article 1(a)). The Treaty’s object and purpose,
first batch of tactical move by the Russian Duma came after according to Article 18 of
nuclear weapons in explicit calls from Russian President the Vienna Convention on
Belarus. Mr Putin told a Putin to withdraw from the treaty. the Law of Treaties.
forum they would only be
used if Russia’s territory or state was threatened. Nuclear testing has had devastating humanitarian
The US government says there is no indication and environmental consequences around the
the Kremlin plans to use nuclear weapons to world. The former Soviet Union’s hundreds of
attack Ukraine. nuclear tests in the Arctic and across Eastern
Europe and Asia left a legacy of medical,
Source: https://www.bbc.com/news/world- psychological and socio-economic trauma,
europe- 67222213. 26 October 2023. displacement of Indigenous peoples and
Russia Revokes Ratification of CTBT contaminated the environment with radiation for
generations to come. ICAN Executive Director
The CTBT, adopted in 1996, is the first Melissa Parke condemned the move, saying:
international treaty to ban all nuclear tests. It has “Russia must reverse this irresponsible decision
187 states which have signed, and 178 which have immediately. International treaties, including the
ratified, but has not entered into force yet because CTBT and the TPNW, are critical to making sure

nuclear testing which has forces and address a

harmed people’s health and The nearly 150-page report offered 81 dwindling nuclear
spread lasting radioactive recommendations, but the panel workforce. The report’s
contamination, is not highlighted, among others, a need to timeframe examined the
resumed. Russia must bolster conventional forces and address last 14 years since the
remain fully committed to a dwindling nuclear workforce. The 2009 report with a focus on
the CTBT and all countries report’s timeframe examined the last 14 2027 to 2035, and the
that have not joined the years since the 2009 report with a focus transition phase stretching
CTBT and the TPNW should on 2027 to 2035, and the transition from present to 2027.
do so as a matter of phase stretching from present to 2027. Creedon called out five
urgency.” assumptions she said
underpin the report: Russia and China will
Source: https://www.icanw.org/russia_revokes_ continue to grow their nuclear arsenals, a ‘one
ratification_of_nuclear_test_ban_treaty_ctbt. 18 major war’ construct is no longer viable, the
October 2023 foundational tenants of the U.S. Nuclear Strategy
USA remain valid, strong allies and partners are
essential, and the U.S. deterrent must be credible.
U.S. Strategic Posture Called ‘Insufficient’ for The US needs to prepare for the possibility of a
Future Threats two-theater conflict, she said, “even if one of the
A report from the U.S. Strategic Posture conflicts is opportunistic. The U.S. defense and
Commission released in nuclear strategy must be
October 2023 found the While recognizing the imperative of the implemented to effectively
US’ current nuclear forces modernization strategy, the report also deter and defeat if
are not sufficient for future found it wasn’t enough. Avoiding specific deterrence fails
threats posed by China and numbers, the report recommended simultaneous aggression in
Russia. The nation is on the increases in the planned number of two theaters.”
cusp of a “fundamentally deployed Long-Range Standoff Weapons, According to the report,
different global setting for B-21 bombers and Columbia-class that makes the execution of
which we did not plan and submarines. the nuclear modernization
we are not well prepared,” programs of record
Madelyn Creedon, the commission chair of the “urgent,” which includes the replacement of all
Commission on the Strategic Posture of the US, U.S. nuclear delivery systems, modernization of
and Brookings Institute nonresident senior fellow, their warheads, comprehensive modernization of
said during a Hudson Institute panel discussion U.S. nuclear command, control and
Oct. 23. Rebeccah Heinrichs, a commissioner and communications, and recapitalizing the nuclear
Hudson Institute senior fellow, called the enterprise infrastructure. While recognizing the
difference between the last report in 2009 and imperative of the modernization strategy, the
the commission’s current findings “dramatic,” report also found it wasn’t enough. Avoiding
including how optimistic the commissioners were specific numbers, the report recommended
14 years ago about the direction of the threats increases in the planned number of deployed
facing the US. “We are facing two nuclear peers Long-Range Standoff Weapons, B-21 bombers and
and that is unprecedented,” Creedon said. “And Columbia-class submarines. “We … feel that the
so the nation must act now and with a sense of currently planned number of Columbia-class
urgency. Steps need to be taken again now to submarines is insufficient,” Marshall Billingslea,
enable both near and longer term decisions.” commissioner and Hudson Institute senior fellow,
The nearly 150-page report offered 81 said during the panel. Current plans call for 12 of
recommendations, but the panel highlighted, the new subs with the first to be delivered in 2031.
among others, a need to bolster conventional He also said a third shipyard is needed to build

up capacity. “We will need to both increase plant The first phase of the project, the upgrading of
production as well as a third shipyard in order to six old missile sites into sites compatible with the
accomplish that,” he said, TK IIIs, began in 2022 and
also noting that the report Taiwan will build 12 new indigenous is expected to be
recommends the current Tien-Kung or Sky Bow III (TK III) land- completed before the end of
ballistic missile Ohio-class based surface-to-air missile sites by the 2025. Work on the
submarines “will need to end of 2026 to counter the threat of remaining six TK III missile
be extended longer than China’s ballistic missiles, according to a sites began early 2023 and
originally planned.” The Ministry of National Defense (MND) will be completed before
report pays “a lot of report. the end of 2026, the MND
attention” to the said in the report. According
submarine force, “and it’s not in a good place right to the NCSIST website, the
now,” he added…. TK III system is designed to engage different
threats, including aircraft, cruise missiles, anti-
Source: https://www. national defensemagazine. radiation missiles, and short-range tactical
org/articles/2023/10/23/us-strategic-posture- missiles. The system can also launch older
insufficient-for-future-threat-report-finds. 23 versions of missiles in the TK family, including TK
October 2023. I and II missiles. The TK III system is being
BALLISTIC MISSILE DEFENCE operated in conjunction with the U.S.-bought PAC
system as the backbone of Taiwan’s low-altitude
TAIWAN air defense system, the NCSIST said on its website.
Taiwan to Build 12 New Domestic TK III Missile Source: https://focustaiwan. tw/politics/
Sites by 2026 202310230013. 23 October 2023.
Taiwan will build 12 new indigenous Tien-Kung USA
or Sky Bow III (TK III) land-based surface-to-air
missile sites by the end of 2026 to counter the Aegis Proves Mettle against Multiple
threat of China’s ballistic missiles, according to a Simultaneous Missile Threats
Ministry of National Defense (MND) report. The The Aegis Combat System was successfully used
report, sent to the Legislative Yuan on Oct. 20 for for the first time against multiple anti-ship cruise
a defense budget review, said the new sites were missiles and ballistic missile defence targets as
needed based on the advice of Taiwan’s top part of the Vigilant Wyvern
military research unit, the Integrated Air and Missile
National Chung-Shan The first phase of the project, the Defence test, the US Navy
Institute of Science and upgrading of six old missile sites into Program Executive Office
Technology (NCSIST). It said sites compatible with the TK IIIs, began Integrated Warfare
the NCSIST has found that in 2022 and is expected to be completed Systems and the MDA
older generations of TK before the end of 2025. Work on the announced on 25 October.
missiles it built, the TK IIs, remaining six TK III missile sites began The live-fire raid scenario
could no longer counter the early 2023 and will be completed before mounted from the Pacific
threat of the PLA’s advanced the end of 2026, the MND said in the Missile Range Facility in
ballistic missile systems report. Kauai, Hawaii, under the US
and needed to be Indo-Pacific Command
modernized. Consequently, Area of Responsibility, showcased a concurrent
the MND decided to upgrade its existing MIM-23 Ballistic Missile Defence and Anti-Air Warfare
Hawk missile system sites and TK II missile sites raid.
and turn them into 12 new missile sites for the
more advanced TK III land-based surface-to-air Vigilant Wyvern marked a notable milestone in
missile sites, the report said. It did not disclose development and provided evidence that ships
how many existing TK III land-based surface-to- equipped with the Aegis Combat System can
air missile sites Taiwan already has around the defend against numerous threats simultaneously.
country. “The success of this joint test represents a critical

step in defending against new collaboration with the

multiple targets in a V igilant Wyvern showcased the Electric Power Research
realistic raid scenario,” impressive capabilities of a ballistic Institute (EPRI) on an
said RDML Douglas missile defence-configured Aegis ship upcoming NEA Joint Project
Williams, MDA Acting aboard the USS Carl M. Levin and a focusing on waste
Director. “The Aegis Arleigh Burke-class destroyer. The vessel management strategies for
weapon system successfully detected, tracked, engaged SMRs and advanced
successfully defeated and intercepted two short-range nuclear energy systems.
multiple concurrent ballistic missile targets. Additionally, it Following the inaugural
attacks, showcasing the government -indust ry
demonstrated its ability to engage two
incredible versatility of conference, NEA Director-
subsonic anti-ship cruise missile drone General William
both this system and the D.
crew of the USS Carl M. targets, showcasing its Anti-Air Warfare Magwood, IV, and EPRI
Levin. My congratulations (AAW) capabilities. Senior Vice President Neil
to the entire test team in Wilmshurst finalised EPRI
achieving this milestone.” support for the development of the project.
WISARD will bring together experts from all areas
Vigilant Wyvern showcased the impressive of the nuclear power life cycle to consider how
capabilities of a ballistic missile defence- these innovative systems may require equally
configured Aegis ship aboard the USS Carl M. Levin innovative waste management solutions.
and a Arleigh Burke-class destroyer. The vessel
successfully detected, tracked, engaged and EPRI is the first financial backer of WISARD and
intercepted two short- anticipates a productive
range ballistic missile collaboration with the NEA
targets. Additionally, it By assessing the back-end impacts of front- to support a robust and
end and reactor design decisions, the
demonstrated its ability to ongoing commitment to
engage two subsonic anti- WISARD project will enable early sustainability in future
ship cruise missile drone identification of future issues to provide nuclear systems. The
targets, showcasing its system vendors, facility operators and WISARD project programme
government bodies with the opportunity
Anti-Air Warfare (AAW) of work seeks to capitalise
capabilities. ... As the Aegis to address problems in an efficient and on the current opportunity
Combat System sustainable manner. EPRI’s extensive to integrate sustainable
Engineering Agent, experience of collaborating with scientists, waste management
engineers, governments and academia to
Lockheed Martin engineers strategies from the very
developed the latest drive innovation from conception to beginning of SMR and
common source library shutdown will be a valuable addition to advanced reactor
update for the Aegis the WISARD project. development. The project
Combat System computer will create a first-of-a-kind
programme. international platform focusing on the specific
characteristics of used fuel and radioactive waste
Source: https://www.naval-technology.com/news/ from SMRs and advanced reactors. Subsequent
a e g i s - p r o v e s - m e t t le - a g a i n s t - m u l t i p l e - work will then build on this knowledge to assess
simultaneous-missile-threats/?cf-view. 26 October the suitability of current waste management
2023. solutions for the next generations of spent fuel
NUCLEAR ENERGY and radioactive waste. The project will focus on
four key used fuel and radioactive waste topics:
GENERAL Long-term disposal, Transportation; Treatment,
recycling and reprocessing; Intermediate storage.
Electric Power Research Institute Supports New
NEA Joint Project on Waste Integration for By assessing the back-end impacts of front-end
Small and Advanced Reactor Designs (WISARD) and reactor design decisions, the WISARD project
will enable early identification of future issues to
The Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA) announced a
provide system vendors, facility operators and

government bodies with the opportunity to for applications beyond the production of
address problems in an efficient and sustainable electricity.” In its high case scenario, the IAEA has
manner. EPRI’s extensive experience of forecast that installed capacity will more than
collaborating with double by 2050 to 890
scientists, engineers, In its high case scenario, the IAEA has gigawatts electric (GW(e))
governments and academia forecast that installed capacity will compared with today’s 369
to drive innovation from more than double by 2050 to 890 GW(e). In the low case,
conception to shutdown will gigawatts electric (GW(e)) compared capacity increases to 458
be a valuable addition to with today’s 369 GW(e). In the low case, GW(e).
the WISARD project. The capacity increases to 458 GW(e).
EPRI aim to shape the future Political Changes Needed:
of energy by identifying issues, technology gaps However, it warned that those positive numbers
and the broader needs of the energy sector are at risk without a change in attitude from some
complements the WISARD project goals. The NEA governments and financial institutions. “We must
will continue to seek opportunities to collaborate continue to push for a level playing field for
on an international scale to support the nuclear energy, in terms of policies and access to
sustainability of next-generation nuclear systems. financing, which can allow the technology to
benefit from similarly favourable conditions that
Source: https://www.oecd-nea.org/jcms/ helped to deploy renewable energy technologies
pl_87253/electric-power-research-institute- at scale over the last decade,” Hamad Alkaabi of
supports-new-nea-joint-project-on-waste- the UAE said. “Long term energy policies,
integration-for-small-and-advanced-reactor- innovative electricity market designs and
designs-wisard. 26 October 2022. technology-neutral sustainable finance
IAEA Sees Nuclear Power Doubling by 2050 frameworks that recognise nuclear’s contribution
to energy system reliability, flexibility and
While the IAEA continues to increase its forecasts decarbonisation are needed.” Currently, 31
for the amount of nuclear energy that will be countries operate nuclear power, which provides
installed it is also calling for more than 9% of the
a “level playing field” on world’s electricity but
energy policies and access The IAEA says that as well as providing accounts for around 25% of
to financing. The IAEA has clean electricity 24 hours a day, nuclear its clean electricity.
revised its global growth power could also radically cut emissions Another 30 countries or so
projections for a third in industry, transportation and are embarking on or
straight year, stating that a buildings, known as the hard-to-abate considering the
growing number of sectors, which are responsible for 60% introduction of nuclear
countries are now looking at of global greenhouse gas emissions. power, with/ support from
nuclear power as a clean Nuclear power can produce process the IAEA….
and reliable energy source heat for industries such as cement and
to address the challenges steel making, clean hydrogen for The IAEA says that as well
of energy security, climate transport and other uses, district as providing clean
change and economic heating for buildings and also help electricity 24 hours a day,
development. “Climate address the growing global need for nuclear power could also
change is a big driver, but fresh drinking water by reducing the radically cut emissions in
so is security of energy carbon footprint of desalinisation. industry, transportation and
supply,” IAEA director buildings, known as the
general Grossi said. “Many countries are hard-to-abate sectors, which are responsible for
extending the lifetime of their existing reactors, 60% of global greenhouse gas emissions. Nuclear
considering or launching construction of advanced power can produce process heat for industries
reactor designs and looking into SMRs, including such as cement and steel making, clean hydrogen
for transport and other uses, district heating for
buildings and also help address the growing global X. “Explored avenues for expanding the role of
need for fresh drinking water by reducing the nuclear energy to meet our net zero commitment
carbon footprint of desalinisation. “Nuclear power and extending nuclear technology applications in
is the only technology that can produce at scale areas like food, health, water treatment and
the three low-carbon energy vectors needed to countering plastic pollution in the Global South,”
reach net zero: electricity, heat and hydrogen,” he added….The two leaders also held discussions
Mr Alkaabi said. “Unfortunately, there is a large on Ukraine, the Indo-Pacific and the role of the
disconnect between what nuclear technology can IAEA in promoting peaceful use of nuclear S&T in
deliver and how this potential is portrayed in areas such as energy, health, food and
climate scenarios that inform policymakers.” agriculture….
$2.8 Billion French Investment: One new EAM Jaishankar also met IAEA Director General
investment that is expected to help grow nuclear Grossi. The two discussed the developmental
capacity is an expansion of Orano’s Georges Besse significance of nuclear energy and exchanged
uranium-enrichment plant in southern France. The views on non-proliferation and international
international nuclear fuel cooperation. “Good to see
cycle company will invest On average, power generated by SMRs my friend DG @iaeaorg
around $2.8 billion to amounts to one-third generated by @rafaelmgrossi today. I
expand the Georges Besse conventional nuclear power plants. In congratulated him on his
2 facility by more than 30%. addition, SMRs leave less of a carbon reappointment. Discussed
Orano says the site will the developmental
footprint. They can also connect to pre- significance of nuclear
eventually process enough
uranium to generate existing power grids or off-the-grid rural energy. Also exchanged
nuclear power for the areas, thus proving their worth in views on non-proliferation
equivalent of 120 million supplying electricity to Indonesian and international
households a year. “In the regions with a significant lack of cooperation. India will
current geopolitical context, electricity connection. always be a strong and
the purpose of this increase reliable partner of IAEA,”
in enrichment capacities is to strengthen Western the EAM wrote on ‘X’….
energy sovereignty in France,” Claude Imauven, Source: https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/pm-
Orano’s chairman said. “Orano’s decision nuclear-watchdog-chief-rafael-grossi-explore-
responds to requirements expressed by our avenues-for-expanding-nuclear-energy-4507950.
customers to strengthen their security of supply, 23 October 2023.
with production expected to start up as of 2028.”
INDONESIA
Source: https://smallcaps.com.au/iaea-sees-
nuclear-power-doubling-2050/. 24 October 2023. US Firms Plan to Build Pioneering Nuclear
Power Plants in Indonesia
INDIA
United States-based NuScale Power and ThorCon
PM Modi, Nuclear Watchdog Chief Explore Power are planning to construct new nuclear
Avenues for Expanding Nuclear Energy power plants (PLTNs) in Indonesia despite the
Prime Minister Modi met with IAEA Director current lack of approval from the Indonesian
General Grossi on October 20 and held government. NuScale Power plans to build SMRs,
discussions on exploring avenues for expanding a proposed class of sophisticated nuclear power
the role of nuclear energy to meet the net zero reactors capable of generating up to 300 MW(e)
commitment. Both the leaders also discussed how per unit. On average, power generated by SMRs
to extend nuclear technology applications in areas amounts to one-third generated by conventional
like food, health, water treatment and countering nuclear power plants. In addition, SMRs leave less
plastic pollution in the Global South. “Had a fruitful of a carbon footprint. They can also connect to
discussion with Director General Grossi on pre-existing power grids or off-the-grid rural
enhancing enduring partnership between India and areas, thus proving their worth in supplying
IAEA,” PM Modi posted on social media platform
electricity to Indonesian regions with a significant Source: https://www.thejakartapost.com/

lack of electricity connection. business/2023/10/26/us-firms-plan-to-build-
pioneering-nuclear-power-plants-in-
The Energy and Mineral Resource Ministry’s New indonesia.html. 26 October 2023.
and Renewable Energy and Energy Conservation
Director General Yudo Dwinanda Priaadi stated KENYA
that his agency had discussed plans to install a
Kenya Hosts 4th Africa Youth Nuclear Summit
PLTN in Indonesia with NuScale Power. “We have
talked with NuScale, and The 4th Africa Youth
they said they are ready to By 2027, the power plant is set to be Summit was launched on
start operations in 2032. We delivered to and installed in Bangka October 23 at the Kenyatta
also asked if they can start Belitung Islands, before collecting International Conference
in 2032 or 2039, and they operational permission from the Centre. The Summit will see
said they are ready Nuclear Energy Regulatory Agency over 2500 youth across the
whenever,” Yudo said on (BAPETEN) in 2029. continent come together to
October 22. According to explore the potential and
Yudo, NuScale has sufficient promises of nuclear
experience in constructing new nuclear power science and technology for economic
plants in multiple countries, including the US and sustainability, reliable and low carbon electricity
Romania before setting sights on Indonesia. To generation for the future. During the launch,
fulfill net-zero emissions (NZE) targets, Yudo organizers challenged the youth in Africa to join
added that Indonesia would have to rely on clean the push for safe and secure application of nuclear
energy-based power plants capable of generating technologies and further called on relevant
electricity up to 31 GW. “We need 31 GW in the stakeholders to ensure adequate resources and
current NZE scenario, and yet, the draft political goodwill as the continent expands its
government regulation for national energy policy nuclear agenda. Speaking at the event, Nuclear
sets the starting date to 2032. Power and Energy Agency, Chief Executive Officer
(CEO), Justus Wabuyabu, stated that Kenya has
The point is, in the future, if we would like to talk
made significant steps in the implementation of
about the scale of PLTNs, it would have to be in
the nuclear power programme, as it has carried
SMR-scale since we have many remote islands,”
out pre-feasibility studies
said Yudo. Meanwhile,
on the nuclear power
through its subsidiary PT During the launch, organizers
programme. He added that
ThorCon Power Indonesia, challenged the youth in Africa to join
the country also enacted
ThorCon Power aims to start the push for safe and secure application
the Nuclear Regulatory Act
the operation of thorium- of nuclear technologies and further
of 2019, which established
based PLTNs in Indonesia in called on relevant stakeholders to
to put in place an
2030. ThorCon Power ensure adequate resources and political
independent nuclear
Indonesia chief operating goodwill as the continent expands its
regulatory body, Kenya
officer Bob S. Effendi said
nuclear agenda. Nuclear Regulatory
on October 20 that his
Authority (KNRA). “The
company would start steel-
focus being on human
cutting processes for its power plants at a South
capital, workforce, development, education,
Korean shipyard in November 2024. By 2027, the
training, public participation and acceptance with
power plant is set to be delivered to and installed
the goal to attain high standards and practices,
in Bangka Belitung Islands, before collecting
in nuclear safety, security, safeguards and non-
operational permission from the Nuclear Energy
proliferation,” he added.
Regulatory Agency (BAPETEN) in 2029. Bob
explained that his company’s timeline was still At the same time, Kenya Nuclear Regulatory
under further discussion with BAPETEN, and Authority (KNRA), Director General (DG), James
ThorCon Power Indonesia would have to rely on a Keter, noted that, “We must now arise and change
new presidential regulation (Perpres) on the the narrative of nuclear power from that of war
construction of PLTNs in Indonesia.
and annihilation to progress and peaceful million tonnes of hydrogen annually, reaching
utilization.” He also urged other Africa nuclear nearly a third of the 2030 US hydrogen production
players to roll-up their sleeves and support the target and lowering emissions from hard-to-
development and harmonization of nuclear decarbonise industrial sectors, and resulting in a
policies, laws and regulations across the reduction of 25 million tonnes of end-use carbon
continent. Mr. Enobot Agborau, the Executive emissions each year…The announcement is one
Secretary of the African Commission on Nuclear of the largest investments in clean manufacturing
Energy, Nuclear Power and and jobs in history, the
Energy Agency (NuPEA) The announcement is one of the largest White House said, with the
urged African youth to investments in clean manufacturing and federal investment being
proactively take part in jobs in history, the White House said, matched by recipients to
policy decisions in their with the federal investment being leverage a total of nearly
countries that will lead to matched by recipients to leverage a USD50 billion to strengthen
conversations around total of nearly USD50 billion to local economies, create and
nuclear technology as a maintain high-quality jobs
strengthen local economies, create and
means of addressing some and slash emissions.
of the continent’s age-old maintain high-quality jobs and slash “Unlocking the full potential
challenges such as energy emissions. of hydrogen - a versatile
deficits. “The youth should fuel that can be made from
build on the foundations built today and the legacy almost any energy resource in virtually every part
of the past. Nuclear will no doubt help expedite of the country - is crucial to achieving President
the search for solutions to many teething Biden’s goal of American industry powered by
problems,” he added. American clean energy, ensuring less volatility
and more affordable energy options for American
Source: https://thesharpdaily.com/kenya-hosts- families and businesses,” Granholm said.
4th-africa-youth-nuclear-summit/. 24 October
2023. Integral Nuclear: Constellation Energy, which
earlier this year began
USA The project will produce an estimated operating a first-of-its-kind
Nuclear to Be Part of US 33,450 tonnes of clean hydrogen per 1 MW demonstration scale,
Clean Hydrogen Hubs year and create thousands of “good- nuclear-powered clean
paying” jobs. Constellation President hydrogen production facility
US President Biden and and CEO Joe Dominguez said tax credits at the Nine Mile Point
Energy Secretary Granholm such as those contained in the Inflation nuclear power plant in New
have announced seven
Reduction Act - allowing hydrogen York state, is a major
regional clean hydrogen participant in the MachH2
hubs that will share USD7 production using carbon-free power
hub. The company said it
billion in federal funding to from existing nuclear power plants - are
will use a portion of the hub
accelerate the commercial- vital if such projects to go ahead. funding to build the world’s
scale deployment of low- largest nuclear-powered
cost, clean hydrogen. Nuclear energy features in clean hydrogen production facility at its LaSalle
the plans of several of them, including a large Clean Energy Center in Illinois. The facility will
nuclear-powered clean hydrogen production cost an estimated USD900 million, a portion of
facility at Constellation’s LaSalle plant in Illinois. which will be offset by the MachH2 award,
The seven hubs will be funded under the Constellation said, and will employ lessons learned
Bipartisan Infrastructure Law to kickstart a from Nine Mile Point.
national network of clean hydrogen producers,
consumers, and connective infrastructure while The project will produce an estimated 33,450
supporting the production, storage, delivery, and tonnes of clean hydrogen per year and create
end-use of clean hydrogen, according to the thousands of “good-paying” jobs. Constellation
Department of Energy (DOE). Known as H2Hubs, President and CEO Joe Dominguez said tax credits
it is expected that they will collectively produce 3 such as those contained in the Inflation Reduction

Act - allowing hydrogen production using carbon- Key Lake, McArthur River and Rabbit Lake uranium
free power from existing nuclear power plants - sites in northern Saskatchewan for an additional
are vital if such projects to go ahead. “Today’s 20 years. The Canadian Nuclear Safety
award is proof positive that DOE and the Commission (CNSC) said the renewed licences for
administration want existing nuclear energy to Key Lake and McArthur River are valid until 31
play a vital role in jumpstarting domestic October 2043 and the licence for Rabbit Lake until
hydrogen production and we look forward to final 31 October 2038. CNSC said one of the licence
Treasury Department guidance,” he said. renewal conditions is that Cameco must provide
Xcel Energy, part of the “comprehensive updates”
Heartland Hydrogen Hub, The company expects the Cigar Lake mine on activities at the three
said it expects to receive a to produce up to 16.3 million pounds of sites. For Key Lake the
large portion of the federal uranium concentrate at a 100% basis in updates are due in 2030 and
award, subject to 2023. Cameco previously estimated the 2037, for McArthur River
negotiations. In its mine would generate 18 million pounds they are also due in 2030
application, the company of uranium. In August 2023, Cameco raised and 2037, and for Rabbit
proposed investing up to its consolidated revenue outlook for 2023 Lake in 2030. Cameco
USD2 billion over a decade as demand for nuclear power grows in the applied for 20-year licence
for clean hydrogen- transition away from fossil fuels, even as renewals on 4 November
producing equipment and the company reported a 14% drop in 2022.
infrastructure and plans to revenue in its second quarter. Rabbit Lake and McArthur
use its existing and future River are both uranium
nuclear, solar and wind resources in the Upper mines. Key Lake is a mill that processes uranium
Midwest to produce hydrogen to blend into power ore. Cameco put the Rabbit Lake Operation into a
generation, existing natural gas distribution state of care and maintenance in 2016 because
systems, and agricultural and industrial of economic factors. CNSC said Cameco has not
applications. The company owns and operates two indicated whether it plans to restart production
nuclear power plants in the region, a single boiling at Rabbit Lake. Production was suspended at
water reactor at Monticello and two pressurised McArthur River and Key Lake for approximately
water reactors at Prairie Island. “Clean fuels are four years beginning in January 2018 due to what
a critical component of enabling economy-wide it called “persistent weakness in the global
decarbonisation. The Heartland Hydrogen Hub is uranium market”. Cameco said recently it was
a game-changing initiative that demonstrates how lowering its 2023 production guidance due to
we’re accelerating the development of the next challenges at Key Lake and another uranium mine,
generation of clean energy technology with Cigar Lake, also in Saskatchewan. The company
significant benefits for our customers and the expects the Cigar Lake mine to produce up to 16.3
environment,” said Xcel Energy Chairman, million pounds of uranium concentrate at a 100%
President and CEO Bob Frenzel. ... basis in 2023. Cameco previously estimated the
Source: https://world-nuclear-news.org/Articles/ mine would generate 18 million pounds of
Nuclear-to-be-part-of-US-clean-hydrogen-hubs. 17 uranium. In August 2023, Cameco raised its
October 2023. consolidated revenue outlook for 2023 as demand
for nuclear power grows in the transition away
URANIUM PRODUCTION from fossil fuels, even as the company reported a
CANADA 14% drop in revenue in its second quarter.
Cameco / Canada Uranium Miner Gets 20-Year Source: https://www.nucnet.org/news/canada-
Extensions for Three Sites uranium-miner-gets-20-year-extensions-for-three-
Canada’s nuclear regulator has renewed licences sites-10-5-2023. 27 October 2023.
that authorise Cameco to continue to operate the

USA Speaking on a panel in

Uranium developer Peninsula Energy Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, the
Peninsula Establishes New has established a new uranium veteran financier stressed
US Uranium Project development project, the Dagger the gravity of the spread of
project, which boasts an initial mineral nuclear weapons, which
Uranium developer resource estimate of 6.9-million pounds
Peninsula Energy has he placed ahead of climate
of uranium oxide. The Dagger project is change and other widely-
established a new uranium
about 20 km northeast of the company’s referenced threats. “I hear
development project, the
Dagger project, which flagship Lance facilities in Wyoming, US. people talking about ESG
boasts an initial mineral all the time,” Dimon said
resource estimate of 6.9-million pounds of on October 21, referring to
uranium oxide. The Dagger project is about 20 the environmental, social and governance
km northeast of the company’s flagship Lance concerns and mandates for governments and
facilities in Wyoming, US. MD and CEO Wayne companies. “I just would put on your table the
Heili said on October 20 that Dagger provided most serious thing facing mankind is nuclear
Peninsula with an exciting opportunity to further proliferation. If we’re not sitting here 100 years
increase the size and scale of its already sizeable from now, it will be nuclear proliferation. It’s not
mineral resource inventory. “Dagger perfectly our climate.” International bodies and proliferation
complements the Lance projects, which once in experts warn that the danger of nuclear weapons
production, will be one of use is higher than it’s been
the largest uranium in-situ International bodies and proliferation in decades, amid wars
recovery operations in the experts warn that the danger of nuclear involving nuclear powers
US. The establishment of weapons use is higher than it’s been in like Russia and the
the highly prospective decades, amid wars involving nuclear weakening of adherence to
Dagger Project adds powers like Russia and the weakening international nuclear
greater depth and of adherence to international nuclear treaties. “The risk of a
expansion optionality to our treaties. nuclear weapon being used
growing company…. This is currently higher than at
strategic development any time since the depths
comes at an opportune time with the US of the Cold War,” the UN wrote in a statement in
government looking to take meaningful action to March 2023…Earlier in October, Dimon said in a
reinvigorate its domestic uranium production and statement that came with JPMorgan’s earnings
nuclear fuel cycle capacity, whilst the company release that “this may be the most dangerous
continues preparing for the resumption of time the world has seen in decades…
commercial production at our US-based Lance Source: https://www.nbcdfw.com/news/business/
projects by late 2024,” said Heili. Dagger provides money-report/jamie-dimon-the-most-serious-
the opportunity to develop a satellite production thing-facing-mankind-is-nuclear-proliferation/
operation near Lance. 3368118/. 24 October 2023.
Source: https://www.miningweekly.com/article/ USA
peninsula-establishes-new-us-uranium-project-
2023-10-23. 23 October 2023. Russia Accuses US of V iolating Treaty with
Nevada Nuclear Test
NUCLEAR PROLIFERATION
On October 20, Russia told state media outlets
GENERAL that it is closely monitoring experiments
Jamie Dimon: ‘The Most Serious Thing Facing conducted by the US at a nuclear test site in
Mankind is Nuclear Proliferation’ Nevada. ‘Bloomberg’ reports that the DOE said
the October 18 tests were conducted in order to,
JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon is asked “validate new predictive explosion models.”
routinely where he sees the greatest threats to According to the DOE, the models can be used to
the global economy — and to mankind in general. help detect atomic blasts occurring in other

countries, even deep underground. Corey NUCLEAR SAFETY

Hinderstein, deputy administrator for Defense
Nuclear Nonproliferation at the National Nuclear AUSTRALIA
Security Administration, said the U.S. test was IAEA Mission Finds Progress in Nuclear and
meant to, “advance our Radiation Safety in
efforts to develop new Earlier, the Federation Council [of the Australia, Notes Areas
technology in support of U.S. Federal Assembly of Russia] stated that for Improvement
nuclear nonproliferation the underground tests on October 18
goals.”. An IAEA mission said
in Nevada should be given an
Australia has made
Russia’s Interfax News international legal assessment, since the significant progress in
Agency said that Dmitry US is a signatory to the CTBT and is building a resilient and
Peskov, the Russian obliged to refrain from violating this adaptable regulatory
presidential press secretary, agreement, Via Interfax. infrastructure for radiation
told the press that Moscow safety. The team has also
was aware of and monitoring the situation. identified areas for potential enhancements, such
Russia’s Interfax News Agency said that Dmitry as the completion of a national strategy on
Peskov, the Russian presidential press secretary, radiation safety. Noting ongoing activities to
told the press that Moscow was aware of and address consistency in the State and Territories
monitoring the situation. Earlier, the Federation radiation safety programmes, the team said
Council [of the Federal Assembly of Russia] stated further efforts were warranted in this area, which
that the underground tests on October 18 in the establishment of a national strategy would
Nevada should be given an international legal support. The Integrated Regulatory Review Service
assessment, since the US is a signatory to the (IRRS) team concluded a nine-day follow-up
CTBT and is obliged to refrain from violating this mission from 16 to 24 October to review progress
agreement, Via Interfax. Fox News reports that of Australia’s implementation of
the timing of the U.S. test recommendations and
is notable, as it comes While the treaty, which bans all nuclear suggestions made during an
directly after Russian explosions across the entire planet, was initial IRRS mission in 2018.
lawmakers announced adopted in 1996, it has never been fully
their plan to revoke enforced. China, India, Pakistan, North The follow-up mission was
Moscow’s ratification of Korea, Israel, Iran, Egypt and the U.S. conducted at the request of
the Nuclear Test Ban have never ratified the treaty. Last the Government of Australia
Treaty. and hosted by the Australian
week, Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei
Radiation Protection and
While the treaty, which Ryabkov said that Russia would only Nuclear Safety Agency
bans all nuclear resume nuclear tests if the U.S. did so (ARPANSA), the
explosions across the first. Commonwealth Government
entire planet, was adopted regulator. Under Australia’s
in 1996, it has never been fully enforced. China, federal system of government, ARPANSA
India, Pakistan, North Korea, Israel, Iran, Egypt and regulates Commonwealth entities and other
the U.S. have never ratified the treaty. Last week, entities are regulated by the respective regulatory
Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said that bodies of the six States and two Territories. The
Russia would only resume nuclear tests if the U.S. majority of licenced activities in Australia are
did so first. carried out under the supervision of state and
Source: https://www.rrdailyherald.com/news/ territory regulatory bodies. The scope of the IRRS
national/russia-accuses-us-of-violating-treaty- follow-up mission was the same as the scope of
with-nevada-nuclear-test/video_f2d8f724-c401- the 2018 mission, namely the regulatory
5d8c-8f2e-72be5b72e439.html. 20 October 2023. framework for all nuclear and radiation facilities

and activities in Australia, Emergency radiation and nuclear safety framework. Following
Preparedness and Response, medical and the announcement of the AUKUS trilateral security
occupational exposure situations, and public and partnership (in September 2021) and the decision
environment protection. IRRS missions are on the optimal pathway in March 2023 to acquire
designed to strengthen the conv entiona lly -a rme d
effectiveness of the Australia does not have any nuclear nuclear-powered
national nuclear and power plants. Its one research reactor submarines, Australia
radiation safety regulatory produces radioisotopes for medicine, announced plans to
infrastructure, based on research, and industry. Radiation establish a new statutory
IAEA safety standards and sources are used in facilities and in Commonwealth regulator
international good activities in the field of research, known as the Australian
practices, while recognizing industry, medicine, and agriculture. The N u c l e a r - P o w e r e d
the responsibility of each country has storage facilities for low Submarine Safety
country to ensure nuclear and intermediate level radioactive Regulator (ANPSSR).
and radiation safety. waste and plans to establish a national Additionally, in July 2020,
radioactive waste management facility. Australia established the
Australia does not have any Australian Radioactive
nuclear power plants. Its Waste Agency (ARWA) with the mission of
one research reactor produces radioisotopes for handling the nation’s radioactive waste. During
medicine, research, and industry. Radiation this time, the COVID-19 pandemic led to
sources are used in facilities and in activities in significant temporary resource constraints in the
the field of research, industry, medicine, and field of radiation and nuclear safety.
agriculture. The country has storage facilities for
low and intermediate level radioactive waste and The IRRS team, comprised of seven senior
plans to establish a national radioactive waste regulatory experts from Canada, Finland, France,
management facility. The IRRS mission interacted Ireland, UK, US, and three IAEA staff members,
with the Commonwealth conducted a series of
Department of Health and The IRRS team said that since 2018, interviews with ARPANSA,
Aged Care, the Australian Australia has made significant policy g o v e r n m e n t
Radioactive Waste Agency decisions to broaden the radiation and representatives and the
(ARWA), and all nine nuclear safety framework. Following State and Territory
radiation safety regulators: the announcement of the AUKUS regulatory bodies, and
ARPANSA for the trilateral security partnership (in reviewed relevant
Commonwealth of September 2021) and the decision on reference material. One of
Australia, Queensland the optimal pathway in March 2023 to the most prominent
Health, the New South acquire conventionally-armed nuclear- challenges identified by the
Wales Environment powered submarines, Australia 2018 IRRS mission was the
Protection Authority, announced plans to establish a new establishment of a national
Victoria’s Department of statutory Commonwealth regulator framework for radiation
Health and Human known as the Australian Nuclear- safety that ensures a
Services, South Australia’s Powered Submarine Safety Regulator consistent level of safety
Environment Protection (ANPSSR). and protection for
Authority, Tasmania’s individuals and the
Department of Health, Western Australia’s environment across all jurisdictions, both in
Radiological Council, the Northern Territory’s principle and regulatory practice.
Department of Health, and the Australian Capital
Territory’s Health Protection Service. The IRRS In response, a series of activities have been
team said that since 2018, Australia has made undertaken at both national and jurisdictional
significant policy decisions to broaden the levels. The adoption by all regulatory bodies of a

second edition of the National Directory for highlight “the dangers to nuclear safety” posed
Radiation Protection (NDRP2) has laid the by the war, he added. The Khmelnytsky plant has
foundation for the adoption of nationally agreed two reactors. One is operating and one has been
radiation safety codes and standards but its in planned outage since August. Fears of fighting
implementation has not proceeded uniformly and affecting a nuclear power plant have been
promptly across all jurisdictions. “The team found omnipresent since Russia first invaded Ukraine
progress in how Australia is approaching in February 2022. Russian forces have controlled
challenges in radiation safety,” said Petteri the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, in eastern
Tiippana, Director General of the Radiation and Ukraine, since March 2022.
Nuclear Safety Authority (STUK), Finland, and the
IRRS team leader. “We Kyiv accuses Russia of shelling the plant and
underscored the A Russian drone attack on western risking a radiation leak,
importance of recognizing Ukraine likely targeted a nuclear power behaviour it characterises
the substantial advantages plant, President Zelensky says. Iranian- as “nuclear terror”. No
of consistent regulation for designed Shahed drones struck the area serious accident has
public health, the regulated around the power plant in the western occurred since the full-scale
industry, and the efficient Khmelnytsky region early on October invasion last year, however.
use of resources across the 22, he said. The attack injured 20 people Mr Zelensky said the attack
country as a whole.” in the Khmelnytsky region
and caused light damage, including showed that Ukraine’s air
The IRRS team recognized broken windows. The IAEA said the defences needed further
that substantial progress plant’s operations were unaffected. support from international
had been made in response partners. He added that
to the 2018 findings. Out of the 23 Russian drones and missiles contained
recommendations and 12 suggestions, 16 components originating from Western companies
recommendations and 10 suggestions have been and countries and the Khmelnytsky strike showed
successfully addressed and closed….The final “how dangerous it can be when Russia can bypass
mission report will be provided to the Government international sanctions”….
in about three months.
Source: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-
Source: https://www.iaea.org/newscenter/ europe-67226741. 26 October 2023.
pressreleases/iaea-mission-finds-progress-in-
nuclear-and-radiation-safety-in-australia-notes- NUCLEAR SECURITY
areas-for-improvement. 24 October 2023. UK
UKRAINE UK Cites Nuclear Plant Operator Over
Cybersecurity Strategy
Russians Likely Targeted Khmelnytsky Nuclear
Plant – Zelensky EDF placed under “significantly enhanced
A Russian drone attack on western Ukraine likely regulatory attention”, as it is insisting “there is
targeted a nuclear power plant, President Zelensky no risk to plant safety at our power stations”. The
says. Iranian-designed Shahed drones struck the UK Government’s safety watchdog, the Office for
area around the power plant in the western Nuclear Regulation (ONR), has placed a nuclear
Khmelnytsky region early on October 22, he said. firm on notice over its cybersecurity practices. In
The attack injured 20 people and caused light the chief nuclear inspector’s annual report on
damage, including broken windows. The IAEA said Great Britain’s nuclear industry, the ONR stated
the plant’s operations were unaffected. “Powerful that EDF Energy has been placed on “significantly
explosions shook an area near Ukraine’s enhanced regulatory attention” after an inspection
Khmelnytsky Nuclear Power Plant,” IAEA Director into its cybersecurity practices. The ONR decision
General Grossi said in a statement. The blasts to closely study the cyber credentials of a nuclear

power station operator in the UK, comes amid as a precaution. In 2015 an attacker managed to
growing tensions about the cyber actions of hack into the systems of a nuclear power plant in
hostile nation states. South Korea. A computer worm was later
discovered in a device
EDF Cited: EDF it should be EDF was cited for not providing the connected to the control
remembered is a French inspector with a “comprehensive and system, but the plant
power utility, and it runs one fully resourced cyber security operator insisted that the
nuclear power station in improvement plan….EDF did not meet breach had not reached
Scotland (Torness in East its commitment to provide us with a the reactor controls itself.
Lothian), as well four comprehensive and fully resourced The hacker later posted
nuclear power stations in
cyber security improvement plan, as files from the hack online
England. EDF is also building and included a demand for
agreed, by end of March.
a new nuclear station at money.
Hinkley Point in Somerset.
In the chief nuclear inspector’s annual report, EDF Potential Red Flag: However, the decision by the
was cited for not providing the inspector with a chief nuclear inspector to place EDF under greater
“comprehensive and fully resourced cyber security examination has prompted a reaction from a
improvement plan….EDF did not meet its cybersecurity professional. “With the news that
commitment to provide us with a comprehensive EDF failed to ‘meet its commitment to provide us
and fully resourced cyber security improvement with a comprehensive and fully resourced cyber
plan, as agreed, by end of March,” the report security improvement plan,’ according to the UK
stated. “Consequently, EDF’s corporate centre has chief nuclear inspector’s annual report is an
been moved to significantly enhanced regulatory extremely worrying ‘red flag’ for the UK critical
attention for cyber security….EDF has made two energy infrastructure as well as UK government
new appointments to specifically address cyber and regulatory policy failing,” noted Simon
security,” the report stated. “We have Chassar, CRO at Claroty. “The reason for this is
subsequently met with EDF that ISA/IEC 62443 series of
senior team to ensure standards was formerly
regulatory expectations are In 2016 a German nuclear power plant approved and published in
understood”…. in Bavaria admitted that its systems 2018 which was endorsed
were riddled with malware, and it was by the UN and across 20
Nuclear Security: The shut down as a precaution. In 2015 an different industries for
issue of cybersecurity and attacker managed to hack into the securing ICS automation
operators of nuclear power systems of a nuclear power plant in controls; 8 years after the
stations tends to a South Korea. A computer worm was Stuxnet malware which
sensitive subject. In
later discovered in a device connected affects ICS environments
November 2020 a cyber- causing them to
attack took down the to the control system, but the plant malfunction and feed false
official website of the operator insisted that the breach had data,” said Chassar.
Japanese nuclear regulator not reached the reactor controls itself.
for a number of hours. In Stuxnet is thought to have
mid-2019 Indian officials confirmed that its been created by both Israel and the US, after it
newest nuclear power plant (the Kudankulam was discovered in 2010 when it was used to
nuclear power plant) had been hacked. In 2017, attack a uranium enrichment facility at Iran’s
the US had warned of ongoing online attacks on Natanz nuclear site. “Nuclear power is a critical
critical sectors including energy, nuclear and infrastructure for society power needs in the UK,
manufacturing. That came after the US DOE generating 15 percent of the UK power but also a
acknowledged a campaign of attacks that targeted serious highly managed environmental risk,” said
a number of energy companies, including at least Chassar. “A cyberattack on any nuclear generation
one nuclear plant. In 2016 a German nuclear station could create massive impacts on the UK
power plant in Bavaria admitted that its systems whichever nation-state sponsored or criminal
were riddled with malware, and it was shut down faction decided to target it,” said Chassar. “The

UK Government should consider adopting the ensuring the IAEA has the resources needed to
American NERC-CIP security regulation (which carry out its duties….
also applies to Canada and Mexico) for the UK
energy sector as well as providing the regulator Source: https://nmpoliticalreport.com/2023/10/
with an ability to enforce failure on cyber controls; 27/lujan-blackburn-introduce-bipartisan-
with some consideration of direct control of resolution-supporting-nuclear-security/. 27
technology adoption, loss of licenses and financial October 2023.
impacts. “Implementing a technology that quickly NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT
identifies connected physical assets and their
vulnerabilities (CVE-CVSS) and known exploits GENERAL
(EPSS) is the immediate requirement so that a plan
Existence of Nuclear Weapons Creates
to reduce the inherent risk can start immediately;
Temptation, Risk of Use, First Committee Hears
then start to connect anomaly alerts and known
as it Unpacks Assumptions about Complex Path
alerts into Security operations for monitoring,”
to Peace
Chassar concluded.
Thematic Debate Begins on Other Mass
Source: https://www.silicon.co.uk/security/
Destruction Weapons: Disarmament is not a lofty
security-management/uk-cites-nuclear-plant-
ideal, but a practical imperative, the First
operator-over-cybersecurity-strategy-535056. 20
Committee (Disarmament and International
October 2023.
Security) heard on October 17 as it concluded its
USA thematic debate on nuclear weapons and began
debating other mass destruction weapons.
Luján, Blackburn Introduce Bipartisan Nuclear weapons, the most inhumane and
Resolution Supporting indiscriminate weapons
Nuclear Security
This resolution makes it clear that ever created, remain a
New Mexico Democratic Senators on both sides of the aisle are constant spectre of
Senator Ben Ray Luján and committed to a fully funded IAEA that destruction, Namibia’s
Tennessee Republican has the resources to carry out its vital representative warned.
Senator Marsha Blackburn safety mission. Their sheer existence,
introduced a bipartisan capable of unimaginable
resolution supporting the IAEA in its role harm to humanity and the
promoting nuclear security. “At a time of immense planet, creates a temptation and risk of use.
global conflict, the International Atomic Energy Decisions made today will impact the planet left
Agency plays a critical role upholding global safety to future generations, she cautioned. Zambia’s
standards and peaceful nuclear operations,” Luján speaker warned of a “probable risk” of nuclear
said in a press release. “In my home state of New war, as long as retention persists. Nuclear
Mexico, we’ve seen firsthand the impact nuclear weapons have no place in the modern world, and
weapons can have on the community and to the there is no justification for their proliferation,
long-term health of our citizens. This resolution testing and stockpiling. Their destructive power
makes it clear that Senators on both sides of the has fueled international tensions and created an
aisle are committed to a fully funded IAEA that uncertain, unsafe world. Relying on deterrence
has the resources to carry out its vital safety for security only perpetuates a cycle of fear, where
mission.” The IAEA was established in 1957 to mutually assured destruction looms over the world
help countries develop and use nuclear technology community, he said. The representative of
for peaceful purposes rather than warmaking. The Colombia echoed the deep concern about the
IAEA also contributes to international peace and fragile premise that nuclear defence and
security as well as the United Nations’ Sustainable deterrence systems provide security. “We are on
Development Goals. The resolution asserts U.S. the brink of an abyss”, she said. Two major nuclear
interests in preventing further nuclear weapon Powers have suspended bilateral strategic
proliferation, securing nuclear materials and dialogue and disagreements are increasing. The
risk of a nuclear war is not zero, and the

assumption that it would be possible to contain disposed of is very important,” said Jason Van
the fallout is a “pipe dream”. Wart, CEO of Laurentis Energy Partners, a partner
in the new nuclear waste recycling facility. 50
As the Committee concluded its thematic debate years of nuclear energy production has produced
on nuclear weapons and proceeded to discuss warehouses full of low and intermediate level
other weapons of mass destruction, several nuclear waste, and over three million used nuclear
speakers reiterated that all such weapons — fuel bundles, all of it radioactive. The new
including biological and chemical weapons — recycling facility, located near the Bruce Nuclear
must not be used by anyone, anywhere, under any Station, is focusing on reducing the volume of
circumstance and at any time. All those Ontario’s low-level waste, the least radioactive
responsible for their use must be held waste, such as like coveralls, mops, brooms and
accountable. The Russian Federation’s delegate, hand tools once used inside Ontario’s nuclear
speaking on behalf of a group plants. “We’re finding that
of 14 States, condemned the As the Committee concluded its 60 to 70 per cent of that
use of chemical or biological thematic debate on nuclear weapons waste can actually be
weapons as repugnant to and proceeded to discuss other segregated and
humankind’s conscience. incinerated, and that
weapons of mass destruction, several
However, other speakers — reduces the volumes down
such as the Czech Republic’s speakers reiterated that all such 95 per cent. We’re able to,
representative — weapons — including biological and in most cases, reduce the
questioned the credibility of chemical weapons — must not be used amount of waste that
this condemnation, stating by anyone, anywhere, under any required to be in
that the Russian Federation circumstance and at any time. permanent disposal by 50
continues to spread to 60 per cent,” said Van
disinformation about the “Syrian chemical Wart. Representatives from Laurentis Energy
dossier” and an alleged “military-grade biological Partners, Ontario Power Generation, the
programme” in Ukraine. In that vein, Germany’s Municipality of Kincardine, and Energy Solutions
delegate denounced the Russian Federation’s Canada cut the ribbon to open the Western Clean
false allegations against Ukraine’s biological Energy Sorting and Recycling Facility near
threat reduction projects as an abuse of the Kincardine, Ont. on Oct. 20, 2023. (Scott Miller/
Conventions on Biological and Chemical weapons, CTV News London)
as well as another futile attempt to justify its war
of aggression. At the outset, the President of the This is important as Ontario’s nuclear industry
ninth Review Conference on the Biological embarks on aggressive growth to meet an
Weapons Convention (BWC) briefed the increasing need for carbon-free electricity in
Committee on its work…. Ontario that’s expected to double or triple before
2050, according to Ontario Power Generation,
Source: https://press.un.org/en/2023/
Executive Vice President of Strategy and
gadis3720.doc.htm. 17 October 2023.
Commercial Management, Chris Ginther. ...It’s not
NUCLEAR WASTE MANAGEMENT just new low level nuclear waste produced in
Ontario that will end up being sorted there, it’s
CANADA the more than 100,000 cubic metres already stored
Goal of New Recycling Facility to Reduce on the Bruce Power site, where a large portion of
Radioactive Waste Ontario’s nuclear waste is currently being stored.
The goal is to reduce the amount of low-level
With an ambitious goal to greatly reduce the waste in half over the next decade. ... The Western
amount of nuclear waste in Ontario, the ribbon Clean Energy Sorting and Recycling Facility near
was cut on the Western Clean Energy Sorting and Kincardine, Ont. aims to reduce the amount of
Recycling Facility near Kincardine, Ont. “We low-level nuclear waste that’s required to stored
understand people’s concerns around nuclear permanently. By 2033, the goal is to reduce
waste. Our ability to reduce the amount of nuclear amount of low-level nuclear waste in storage by
waste that ultimately needs to be permanently 50 per cent. (Scott Miller/CTV News London)

The facility has been open since August, and cost opposition Democratic Party of Korea (DPK), who
between $10 and $12 million to build. claimed that the Yoon Suk Yeol administration’s
Approximately 30 people decision not to oppose
work at the new sorting The Nuclear Waste Management Japan’s release of the
and recycling facility. “The Organization has two communities wastewater has already
goal here is to minimize the interested in storing Canada’s over three placed an enormous burden
effects of production. To million used nuclear fuel bundles in an on the nation’s finances.
reduce the by-products of underground storage facility, and just According to budget
nuclear energy, so it has released a report outlining plans to proposals of each ministry
less of an impact on the submitted by the National
dispose of Canada’s low level nuclear
environment,” explained Assembly Budget Office to
waste in multiple near surface buildings,
Kincardine Mayor Ken Rep. Jung, the total
Craig, who said he’s while finding a host site for an government budget to be
excited about the opening underground facility to house the disbursed by relevant
of the new nuclear waste country’s intermediate level, and non- ministries from this year
facility in his municipality. fuel, high level nuclear waste. through 2028 will amount
There is no permanent to 3.14 trillion won.
storage solution in Canada or Ontario for nuclear The majority of this budget, totaling 3.11 trillion
waste. The Nuclear Waste Management won, is allocated to the Ministry of Oceans and
Organization has two communities interested in Fisheries. Following this, the Nuclear Safety and
storing Canada’s over three million used nuclear Security Commission plans to execute 21.3 billion
fuel bundles in an underground storage facility, won, while the Ministry of Food and Drug Safety
and just released a report outlining plans to is set to disburse 9.6 billion won. In particular,
dispose of Canada’s low level nuclear waste in the fisheries ministry’s budget will increase from
multiple near surface buildings, while finding a 504.5 billion won this year to 712.4 billion won
host site for an underground facility to house the next year. The total budget will be used to carry
country’s intermediate level, and non-fuel, high out 20 projects, aimed mostly at mitigating the
level nuclear waste. potential losses that the fishing industry and
Source: https://london.ctvnews.ca/goal-of-new- fishermen may suffer from due to the release of
recycling-facility-to-reduce-radioactive-waste- the contaminated Fukushima water.
1.6616599. 25 October 2023. The most substantial portion of the budget will
JAPAN be earmarked for a reserve program on marine
Gov’t to Spend $2.2 Billion Over 6 Years to products, which mandates the government
Address Release of Contaminated Fukushima purchase pre-selected species and release them
Water during off-seasons when there is a reduced catch
or during holiday seasons
The Korean government when there is elevated
plans to spend more than The most substantial portion of the demand for marine
3 trillion won ($2.2 billion) budget will be earmarked for a reserve products. A total of 872.1
over the next six years to program on marine products, which billion won will be invested
address the release of mandates the government purchase in this program. The budget
contaminated water from pre-selected species and release them will also be designated for
the damaged Fukushima during off-seasons when there is a other sectors, including a
Daiichi Nuclear Power reduced catch or during holiday seasons purchase loan program that
Plant in Japan, according when there is elevated demand for provides preferential loans
to an opposition lawmaker. marine products. to private warehouse
Adding to concerns is that owners and fishery co-ops,
there is no clear estimate as well as initiatives to
of how many more decades the government will promote consumption and support discounts for
need to allocate funds to address the radioactivity marine products available to the public.
issue, according to Rep. Jung Pil-mo of the main
Moreover, a portion of the budget is expected to
be directed toward scientific endeavors, including power sources. The NST SuperLAT technology is
the establishment of a monitoring system for designed to tackle the intricate problem of nuclear
marine radioactive materials and the development waste management while nuclear power
of rapid detection and prediction technology for generation offers a safe, efficient, and cost-
radioactive contamination. “The government effective solution for producing electricity, the
should estimate the extent responsible disposal of
of both direct and indirect The company has introduced an nuclear waste has long
damage and actively been a significant challenge.
innovation that would be a game-
exercise its right to SuperLAT technology can
changer for the nuclear energy industry
indemnity against the process, package, load,
Japanese government, and the broader efforts to combat store, and transport nuclear
which proceeded with its climate change with Nigeria’s abundant waste in casket containers
plan to discharge reserves of unmined uranium and a to depths of several
contaminated water, even global push for cleaner and more thousand feet underground.
while recognizing that efficient power sources. “SuperlLAT will process,
neighboring countries may package, load, store and
be affected,” Rep. Jung said. transport nuclear waste in casket containers to
Japan released its first discharge of treated several thousand feets underground. It can also
wastewater from the Fukushima plant into the be retrieved when needed as fuel in reactors to
Pacific Ocean between Aug. 24 and Sept. 11, and generate lower carbon electricity,” Dr. Etti-
the second between Oct. 5 and 23. Japan’s Kyodo Williams stated.
News reported on October 26 that the third This dual-purpose approach offers a solution not
discharge will begin on Nov. 2. The country plans only to nuclear waste management but also aligns
to continue discharging contaminated water until with global goals for reducing carbon emissions
2051 to decommission the nuclear reactor at through the generation of low-carbon electricity.
Fukushima. “SuperLAT is designed to offer a safe and
Source: https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/ economic alternative to meet the present and
nation/2023/10/113_362020.html. 28 October future Nuclear Waste challenges for a permanent
2023. Nuclear Waste Storage Technology that does not
necessarily focus, primarily on the deep rock
NIGERIA formation as ultimate
Firm Unveils Innovative The company’s commitment to safety protection of LLW and
Nuclear Waste Disposal and security is marked by its approach HLVW,” he added. The
Technology innovative SuperLAT
to disposing of low-level and high-level technology is rooted in
The NST NuclearSAFE nuclear waste in ultra-deep geological geological nuclear waste
Technology has unveiled repositories, situated 20,000 feet disposal principles, adhering
SuperLAT, a technological underground. This approach provides a to universal regulations.
solution that promises to level of confidence to the international This technology
change the landscape of community and stakeholders concerned incorporates a complex
nuclear energy, with far- about nuclear waste storage accidents, engineering design model
reaching implications for leakages, and the potential theft of with an operational drilling
the global pursuit of nuclear materials. system, ensuring the
carbon-free electricity. In a efficient, safe, and secure
statement signed by Dr. storage of nuclear waste in casket containers,
Jimmy Etti-Williams, a co-founder of NST located deep underground, thousands of feet
NuclearSAFE Technology, the company has below the Earth’s surface. NST SuperLAT
introduced an innovation that would be a game- technology is designed for the permanent disposal
changer for the nuclear energy industry and the of high and low nuclear spent fuel, as well as other
broader efforts to combat climate change with radioactive waste materials, in deep geological
Nigeria’s abundant reserves of unmined uranium rock formations, thousands of feet below the
and a global push for cleaner and more efficient surface.

The company’s commitment to safety and security The efforts of driving NST NuclearSAFE technology
is marked by its approach to disposing of low-level if and when embraced and supported, will
and high-level nuclear waste in ultra-deep increase safety across the industry and other
geological repositories, situated 20,000 feet areas of radiation technology. It will enhance the
underground. This approach provides a level of applications of Radiation Technology in the non-
confidence to the international community and armament i.e., food processing and irradiation to
stakeholders concerned about nuclear waste reduce wastage, Nuclear Medicine treatment for
storage accidents, leakages, and the potential thyroids, NDT for immediate example, surveys of
theft of nuclear materials. leakages in our many dams and oil and gas
pipelines including oil and gas well loggins that
However, the significance of embracing NST rely on nuclear devices to identify oil and gas well
NuclearSAFE Technology’s SuperLAT technology reservoirs,” the statement noted. Etti-Williams
extends far beyond the realm of waste and his team’s innovation opens the door to a
management. For Nigeria, with its substantial cleaner and more efficient nuclear energy
uranium reserves. Establishing uranium plants for landscape, with far-reaching implications for both
energy generation and industrial use could not the environment and humanity’s sustainable
only drive Nigeria’s development but also serve future.
as a model for other African nations seeking
sustainable energy solutions. “Nigeria has Source: https://guardian.ng/features/science/
uranium and with this technology, we need to have firm-unveils-innovative-nuclear-waste-disposal-
our own uranium plants for Nigerian and African technology/. 26 October 2023.
growth.
The Centre for Air Power Studies (CAPS) is an independent, non-profit think tank that undertakes
and promotes policy-related research, study and discussion on defence and military issues,
trends and developments in air power and space for civil and military purposes, as also
related issues of national security. The Centre is headed by Air Marshal Anil Chopra, PVSM
Centre for Air Power Studies AVSM VM VSM (Retd).
Centre for Air Power Studies
P-284
Arjan Path, Subroto Park,
New Delhi - 110010
ZTel.: +91 - 11 - 25699131/32
Fax: +91 - 11 - 25682533
Email: capsnetdroff@gmail.com
Website: www.capsindia.org
Edited by: Director General, CAPS
Editorial Team: Dr Sitakanta Mishra, Anubhav Shankar Goswami, Jay Desai, Rishika Singh, Dr. Ngangom Dhruba Tara Singh
Composed by: CAPS

Disclaimer: Information and data included in this newsletter is for educational non-commercial purpo ses only
and has been carefully adapted, excerpted or edited from sources deemed reliable and accurate at t he time of
preparation. The Centre does not accept any liability for error therein. All copyrighted material belongs to respective
owners and is provided only for purposes of wider dissemination.

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NUCLEAR SECURITY: A FORTNIGHTLY NEWSLETTER FROM CAPS

OPINION – Jarret Adams

Vol. 18, No. 01, 01 NOVEMBER 2023 / PAGE - 1

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Source: https://world-nuclear-news.org/Articles/ of simultaneously deterring both.” There was little

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and thus deter any first warhead. That would result

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analogously to Gazprom compliance with the NPT

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about nuclear proliferation in the region and

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But after Hamas’s 7 October attacks on Israel, Source: https://www.theguardian.com/world/

The Pentagon has seen no indication that China RUSSIA

Vol. 18, No. 01, 01 NOVEMBER 2023 / PAGE - 22

nuclear testing which has forces and address a

Vol. 18, No. 01, 01 NOVEMBER 2023 / PAGE - 23

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step in defending against new collaboration with the

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electricity to Indonesian regions with a significant Source: https://www.thejakartapost.com/

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USA Speaking on a panel in

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countries, even deep underground. Corey NUCLEAR SAFETY

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Composed by: CAPS

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