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Full Paper PREDICTION OF STOCK MARKET RETURNS IN NIGERIA USING

LONG-SHORT TERM MEMORY RECURRENT NEURAL NETWORK MODEL

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 Full Paper
PREDICTION OF STOCK MARKET RETURNS IN NIGERIA
USING LONG-SHORT TERM MEMORY RECURRENT NEURAL
NETWORK MODEL

Charity Ojochogwu Egbunu

Department of Computer Science
JS Tarka University, Makurdi ABSTRACT
charityakowe@gmail.com Accurate forecasting of the stock market
returns is a challenging task due to the volatile
Terungwa Simon Yange and nonlinear nature of the stock return values.
Department of Computer Science Prediction of financial time series using
JS Tarka University, Makurdi different models in machine learning and deep
lordesty2k7@ymail.com learning have gained some degree of notable
accuracy. The recurrent neural networks (RNN)
Daniel Jonah Idoko have bases on deep learning with feedback
Department of Computer Sci loops. The cases of gradient vanishing and
JS Tarka University, Makurdi explosion are commonly associated with the
dannyidoks@gmail.com traditional RNNs. The design of LSTM is
intentional in eliminating the problems and this
has made the LSTM to have become famous in
the modelling of data with some complex
sequence. The goal of this research work is to
improve the accuracy of stock market forecasts
using machine learning and classification
algorithms of neural network LSTM. The
historical stock prices data (2nd January, 2014 –
22nd September, 2021) of the selected company
is subjected to the data mining and information
extraction for the purpose of understanding
the hidden patterns and forecast the behavior
trend in the future times. The results reviewed
that the proposed RNN-LSTM outperformed
ANN and Fuzzy-GA models deployed for the
same stock price movements datasets using
MSE and RMSE as 0.1942 to 0.6889/0.7192, and
0.4990 to 0.8300/0.8481 respectively. The
minimal MSE and RMSE obtained shows the
efficacy of the LSTM model in the prediction of
stock market returns

International Conference on Smart, Secure and Sustainable Nation | S3N’2022 Page 237
 1. INTRODUCTION
Stock markets can be compared to the commodity
markets. Its traders are individuals or enterprises and
the customers are shareholders or brokers. The
purpose for the creation of stock exchange markets is
so that private businesses as well as government
would be assisted for money generation through
demand and supplies. (Kelotra & Pandey, 2020).
Establishment of stock markets is visible in different
continents and countries of the world and it’s also
recognized as asset markets, equity or value. The
random behavior of stock spiked the market
hypothesis of the impossibility of predicting stock
values but research analysis with data mining and
artificial intelligence had shown stock values reflection
from previous records. Some other factors observed
by stock market groups to have effective affluence on
stock value predictions includes commodity price
index, political events, commodity price index, general
economic condition, psychology of investors, other
stock market movements etc. (Nabipour et al., 2020).
Compared to other areas of forecasting, the stock
market forecasting can be very tedious (Kelotra &
Pandey, 2020). As a result of instability in stocks,
buyers and sellers are often disappointed by these
changes which has led to a branch of study called
prediction of stock index. This type of study focuses
mainly on methods and ways of predicting direction of
stock price movements in order to effectively decide
about possible investment steps that ultimately offers
best profit figures (Nabipour et al., 2020). When the
future prices of a stock are forecasted correctly, there
are greater chances of maximizing profits on
investments made in the stock exchange markets. At
present, many attempts have been made at
developing tools and methods for predicting stock
prices and future values such as Neural Nets,
Classification techniques, and fuzzy inference systems
(Moghar & Hamiche, 2020). There has been a general
lack of interest among many stock market participants
or traders in conducting stock transactions because
the majority of forecasting methods are insufficient
and inaccurate for revealing significant changes in the
level of price (Thakkar & Chaudhari, 2021; Neenwi et al.,
2013). As a result, money and share investments are
improperly withheld from the stock market and the
country's economy as a whole (Moghar & Hamiche,
2020). Again, there are losses, divestments, poor
trading decisions, and general stock market
apprehensions (Nabipour et al., 2020). However, most
forecasting methods, such as Fuzzy Inference/Experts
System, imitate human intelligence to estimate the
trend (or pattern) of things (or occurrences). By
definition, fuzzy inference/experts' systems are a
International Conference on Smart, Secure and Sustainable Nation | S3N’2022
simple and straightforward method for solving non-
linear problems such as stock prices; however, their
effectiveness is dependent on inappropriate and less
appropriate human expert rules being built into the
Rule Base and Knowledge Base (Alfa et al., 2020).
The recurrent neural network is good in the
processing and modeling of sequential data has a
unique ability to remember previous state which can
be used in the calculation of current state. The hidden
layers though different, depends on each other and
the input from existing hidden layer includes both the
output from the input layer as well as the output from
previously hidden layer. This makes the RNN to handle
sequential data very well in terms of performance.
Another advantage it has is that it considers data
context in the training process which suits the case of
stocks and forex understanding the fluctuations at
some point is a kind of linked to preceding trend (Hu
et al., 2021).
There are different variations of RNN and the Long
Short Term Memory (LSTM) is one of such models.
This deep learning model is capable of learning the
sequential information, which will help in the analysis
and improve stock prediction performance (Li et al.,
2020). One of its major contribution is the introduction
of the self-loop design to generate the path of a
gradient that can flow continuously for an extended
period of time. In each iteration, the weight of the self-
loop is also updated, which solves the gradient
vanishing problem that is easily generated when the
RNN model updates the weights (Sundermeyer et al.,
2012). A time series model is essentially a process of
nonlinear parameter fitting. The LSTM model is
effective at revealing the correlation of a nonlinear
time series in the delay state space and achieving the
goal of stock prediction (He & Droppo, 2016).
This project proposes a deep learning approach of
RNN-based on LSTM for forecasting stock market
returns There is a need to use deep neural networks to
automatically estimate stock prices at a future date
with higher accuracy and lower errors. The goal of this
study is to create a recurrent neural network based on
long-short term memory model for predicting stock
market returns.
2. LITERATURE REVIEW
The stock market is a snapshot of companies' and the
economy's future growth expectations. the
fluctuation of stock price has been linked to factors
like management trust and operation, economic
factors, market expectancy etc. Technology has
paved easy access for people to use large amount of
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information in a short time and this has made stock
analysis to become difficult since it requires large data
to be processed. the advancement in big data with
the help of deep learning has however made people
hopeful in stock data analysis (Hu et al., 2021). Correct
estimation of stock exchange profits investors most
(Alotaibi, 2021). In the case of machine learning used
for stock price estimations, the learning of such
models is made possible with actions based on
knowledge from the past. For situations where a
model may learn outside its domain, such models are
sure to perform poorly or simply break even.
Apparently, how a model is prepared to work matters
a lot in the expected performance. In the event that
prediction of stocks is done on the bases of
fundamental analysis in the bid to promote intrinsic
security value instead of the market value or if the
charts for the market value are used, modification of
the model can be done to make it more resilient.
Hence, combining technical factors and fundamental
factors would pose as a potential resolution (Singh &
Khushi, 2021). Deep Neural Network (DNN) is a neural
network that has at least one hidden layer. It can
model complex nonlinear functions and has a high
level of abstraction, which means that the model's
fitting power is significantly improved. DNN handles
prediction problems that involves large data with
nonlinearly mapped relations. Intelligent forecasting
of stock and forex prediction can be done with a DNN
(Souma et al., 2019).
Mousavi (2021) considering the risk factor that the
poor economic growth coupled with government
debt could have on time series of stock return applied
kernel smoother which is a non-parametric linear
model, to help to forecast stock returns in long term
with cross validation determining the smoothing
parameters and model. The proposed debt -to- price
ratio and third-to-fourth-quarter economic growth are
strong predictors of stock returns, outperforming
common variables used for prediction recognized in
literatures significantly that explained nearly 30% of
the variation in stock returns over a one-year period.
The model must be tested with larger data samples.
Bogdanova & Stancheva-Todorova (2021) stated in
their work that previous studies focused more on
short-term profitable patterns based on trading
strategies based on the belief that the best (worst)
performing securities over the previous short-term
period tend to perform well (poorly) over the
subsequent period of up to 12 months. Past price
patterns and company financial statements assists in
the forecasting of returns from stock market. There
is however a need for the development of a
framework which would allow investors to support
International Conference on Smart, Secure and Sustainable Nation | S3N’2022
their daily decisions in an automated manner from
information derived from financial statements.
Magaji and Adeboye (2014) in their research on
Nigerian Stock Exchange market used the Artificial
Neural Network and found it to be more effective and
efficient in its prediction compared to their previous
work in an earlier study with same data on which they
applied the Naïve Bayes and SVM algorithms. In like
note, a study carried out by Emenike (2010) applied
the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average
(ARIMA) in modeling and forecasting stock prices in
the Nigerian Stock Exchange. The performance of the
model in prediction was quite poor just as the
correlation in the relationship between the NSE index
and its past. He attributed the deviations to perhaps
the global economy crisis as at then. Different
unforeseen factors ranging from the state of the
economy, politics and insecurity can actually have
effect on the stock exchange market and its
prediction. Deep learning however seems to learn
from past data and has been quite successful in
forecasting and prediction. Idowu et al. (2012) used
the multi-layer feed forward neural network and the
result attested the usefulness of the artificial neural
network in prediction of stock prices. Stock and
foreign currency (Forex) forecasting has always been
a popular and lucrative field of study. In the subject of
financial prediction and forecasting, deep learning
applications have been shown to produce improved
accuracy and return (Hu et al., 2021).
For comparison and analysis, a survey was conducted
utilizing articles from the Digital Bibliography &
Library Project (DBLP) database. Convolutional neural
network (CNN); Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM);
Deep neural network (DNN); Recurrent Neural
Network (RNN); Reinforcement Learning; Hybrid
Attention Networks (HAN); self-paced learning
mechanism (NLP); and Wave net were among the
deep learning methods classified. By presenting a
stock market prediction method that accurately
anticipates the status of the stock market (Kelotra &
Pandey, 2020). The prediction module uses the
suggested Rider-based monarch butterfly
optimization (Rider-MBO) technique to train the deep
convolutional long short-term memory (Deep-
ConvLSTM) model. Rider-MBO is a suggested
algorithm that combines the rider optimization
algorithm (ROA) and MBO. The data from the live
stock market was first subjected to the computation
of technical indicators, which represented the
features, from which the essential features were
extracted through clustering using the Sparse-Fuzzy
C-Means (Sparse-FCM) and feature selection. The
evaluation was based on six types of live stock market
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data and evaluation criteria such as mean squared
error (MSE) and root mean squared error (RMSE). The
MSE and RMSE of the model were 7.2487 and 2.6923,
respectively.
Isenah & Olubusoye (2014) in their research on the
application of artificial neural network (ANN) models
in forecasting stock exchange returns compared out-
of-sample forecast prediction with a baseline
AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA)
model and the ANN outperformed ARIMA modeling
forecasting returns. The ARIMA model suitability for
stock exchange prediction would be limited even
though it takes into account the past values and past
errors but been that it focuses on dependence of
similar trends, limits its ability to selectively pick
important parts of a sequence and ignore the less
important ones. Similarly, Neenwi et al. (2013) also
carried out similar research using ANN in predicting
stock exchange in the Nigerian banks and the
simulation results were positive as well. This is
because ANN deals with nonlinear problems of which
stock exchange is one. However, in measuring the
continuity in the changes in price trends, the LSTM
makes it easy to develop trends using backward
propagation on historic data.
Investigation by researchers on the possibility of
increasing profit in stock exchange for investors in
companies considering the effectiveness of the
recurrent neural network in a dispensation where
individuals have lost trust in stock exchange
prediction has become paramount. The LSTM
recurrent neural network model possess the tendency
for accurate stock exchange prediction with minimal
forecasting errors due to its ability to utilize data
stored in previous stage in future prediction tasks.
3. METHODOLOGY
This section discussed the issues with the current
stock market returns prediction with machine learning
tools. It also discusses how the proposed methods are
deployed to achieved the desired goal.
3.1 LSTM Model
There is a fundamental problem of vanishing gradient
when it comes to RNNs. Though, there are a number
of alternate architectures of RNNs that aim to mitigate
it, the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) architecture
is the most established and prominent (see Figure 1). A
cell, a forget gate, an input gate, and an output gate
make up the architecture of an LSTM unit. Long-term
dependencies can be learned by LSTM networks using
these elements, which is particularly intriguing for
applications like market prediction. The RNNs' hidden
International Conference on Smart, Secure and Sustainable Nation | S3N’2022
state is supplemented by the LSTM cell state, which is
identical in dimension to the hidden state vector. You
can think of an LSTM's cell state as its long-term
memory and its hidden state as its short-term memory.
Although the information in the cell state can be
transferred with little change, the LSTM can change it
via gates. An LSTM differs from a typical RNN in that it
has gates, which control what information in the cell
state should be updated or forgotten. A standard RNN
would simply use a hyperbolic tangent function to
update its hidden state for new cells, however LSTMs
require a little more complicated procedure.
According to a slightly reductionist description, the
LSTM employs gates to choose which information in
the LSTM cell state should be updated and which
information should be forgotten before using the
updated cell state data to output an updated hidden
state. The forget gate is the first gate in an LSTM. It is
a layer of neurons with a sigmoid activation function
that receives the input from the LSTM as well as the
previous hidden state and produces a vector with the
same dimensions as the cell state vector and a range
of 0 to 1 as its output.
Output vector from forget gate: →
𝑓𝑡
Previous hidden state: →
ℎ𝑡−1
Current input: 𝑥𝑡
Weight vector for forget gate: 𝑊𝑓
Bias for forget gate: 𝐵𝑓
→ = 𝜎(→ . [→ ,→ ]+→ )
𝑓𝑡 𝑊𝑓 ℎ𝑡−1 𝑥𝑡 𝐵𝑓
The input gate is therefore in doubt following the
calculation of the forget gate vector. What fresh data
should be used to update a cell's state is decided by
the input gate. It is made up of two layers of neurons:
the sigmoid layer and the tanh layer. The tanh layer
builds a temporary cell state vector with candidates
that can subsequently be used to update the actual
cell state once the sigmoid layer chooses what
information will be updated.
Input gate vector: →
𝑖𝑡
Candidate cell state values: →
𝐶𝑡
The input gate vector and the candidate cell state is
calculated as such:
→ = 𝜎(→ . [→ , → ] + →)
𝑖𝑡 𝑊𝑓 ℎ𝑡−1 𝑥𝑡 𝐵𝑖
→ = tan ℎ (→ . [→ ,→ ]+→ )
𝐶𝑡 𝑊𝐶 ℎ𝑡−1 𝑥𝑡 𝐵𝐶
It's time to update the old cell state → now that we
𝐶𝑡−1
have the input gate output vector, the candidate state,
and the forget gate output vector. We first multiply
→ by →. Thus, if a number in the forget gate output
𝐶𝑡−1 𝑓𝑡
vector is 0, the corresponding number in the old cell
state is changed to 0 and forgotten, however if the
number is 1, the number in the cell state is totally
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preserved. Then, we multiply the candidate cell state
vector by the input gate output vector and add the
resulting product to the initial result.
The new cell state, →
𝐶𝑡
→ = → ∗→ + →∗ →
𝐶𝑡 𝑓𝑡 𝐶𝑡−1 𝑖𝑡 𝐶𝑡
The output gate, via which we obtain the new hidden
state ht, is the last component. This state's output is a
filtered representation of the new cell state. It is made
up of a sigmoid and a tanh layer, just like the input
gate. Which components of the cell state will remain
in the output is determined by the sigmoid layer using
the input and the prior concealed state. The tanh layer
is then passed through with the cell state. The final
result is obtained by multiplying the product of these
layers.
Figure 1: Schematic Diagram of LSTM
3.2 Data Collection
The data was collected from Dangote Cement
Company PLC (DANGCEM). It consists of the following
features: stock closing price, opening price, lowest
price and highest price (as presented in Appendix) as
International Conference on Smart, Secure and Sustainable Nation | S3N’2022
→ = 𝜎(→ . [→ ,→ ]+→ )
𝑜𝑡 𝑊𝑜 ℎ𝑡−1 𝑥𝑡 𝐵𝑜
→ = → ∗ tan ℎ (→ )
ℎ𝑡 𝑜𝑡 𝐶𝑡
In this research, the LSTM model above was
implemented using python programming language
with data from Dangote Cement as dataset. We
trained the LSTM neural network to predict whether a
stock’s daily return would be positive or negative the
next day for each chosen stock from the dataset. We
examined the accuracy, precision, and recall of the
predictions to judge the caliber of the models the
LSTM neural network developed while it performs
binary classification, a potential positive or negative
return.
traded on the Floor Nigerian Stock Exchange from 2nd
January, 2014 to 22nd September, 2021. The data
represented 1911 trading days in which 70% (1337
trading days) served as training dataset, while 30% (573
trading days) served as testing dataset. The labels and
details of both datasets are comparable, which are
associated with the daily stock price forecasts from
DANGCEM. The dataset is mainly composed of
Page 241
numerals depicting the various times series of items
Start
and labels.

3.3 System Algorithm

Collect dataset about stock
share prices of a company
The proposed RNN based on LSTM stock price
forecasting model makes use of the previous or
historical data concerning attributes such as share Select the input
closing, share highest price and share opening prices parameters
of a company stock traded on Nigerian Stock market
in order to arrive at an acceptable decision of Select the
upcoming share closing price movements is illustrated hyperparameters for
in Figure 2. the RNN (LSTM)

The step-by-step approach for realizing the proposed

Build the forecasting
forecasting model include:
model

1. The stock share of company historical prices

movements is collected from the Nigeria Stock
No
Exchange Official Archive in Microsoft (CSV)
Train model = Ok?
format.
2. The distinct sets of input parameters are
selected from the historical price movements of Yes
a company stock for preprocessing and model
Apply new data (test
adoption. dataset)
3. The model is formulated using the appropriate
parameters and hyper parameters of RNN
based LSTM.
Evaluate
4. The proposed model formulated in the previous outomes
step is trained using the training dataset
generated earlier.
5. The initial performance of the trained model is Stop
identified and retrained if outcomes are
unsatisfactory.
6. New data is applied to the model using the Figure 2: The proposed system Flowchart.
testing dataset generated in the earlier step.
7. The forecasting model is evaluated using the
appropriate metrics such as MSE, RMSE, MAPE,
etc. 4. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

The dataset used for this experiment is discussed in

Section 2.2. The learning algorithm employed in this
research used the hyperparameter settings for
purpose of training of the context-specific dataset on
the LSTM. The minimal hyperparameters for model are
provided in Table 1.

Table 1: Minimal Experimental Settings

Hyperparameter Value
Number of convolution 2
layers
Number of max pooling 2
layers
Number of dense layers 4
Dropout rate 0.2
Optimizer Adam

International Conference on Smart, Secure and Sustainable Nation | S3N’2022 Page 242
 Activation function Relu 4.1 Trends and Data Exploration
Loss function Binary- The distributions of various data points for the
crossentropy DANGCEM stock prices movements representing the
Number of epochs 100 closing prices, opening prices, highest prices, and
Batch size 64 lowest prices are depicted in the graphics shown in
Simulator Google Figure 3.
Colaboratory
(Google Colab)

Figure 3: The share prices historical data exploration

From Figure 3, the trend in the distribution of share

price values for the closing price and opening price are
similar; because, the prices revealed that the most
rally for the DANGCEM stock returns were in period
between 8th September, 2017 to 17th September, 2019.
In the same vein, the observable trends in the
distribution of share price values for high and low data
points are similar with most rally in the same period as
the close and open prices. The stocks witnessed it
bullish activities on the floor of Nigerian Stock Market
owing to the COVID-19 pandemic and lockdowns of
business activities nationally and internationally.
However, the trends for all the observable parameters
are improving significantly in the current year of
review.

The heat map showing the correlation between the

close, open, high and low share prices for the
DANGCEM stocks are presented in Figure 4.
Figure 4: The Correlation Heatmap Between the Stock Prices
Data.

International Conference on Smart, Secure and Sustainable Nation | S3N’2022 Page 243
From Figure 4, the values of the open and close share
prices are highly and strongly correlated. While, the
values of the high and low share prices are highly and
strongly correlated.
4.2 Model Training and Validation
The relationship between the training loss and
validation loss of the proposed stock returns
forecasting model is presented in Figure 5.
negative values do not cancel positive values. The
smaller the Mean Squared Error, the closer the fit is to
the data.
𝑀𝑒𝑎𝑛 𝑆𝑞𝑢𝑎𝑟𝑒 𝐸𝑟𝑟𝑜𝑟𝑠 (𝑀𝑆𝐸)
1 𝑛
= ∑ (𝑡𝑖
𝑛 𝑖=1
− 𝑡̂𝑖 )2 (1)
Root Mean Squared Error: The RMSE as stated in
Equation 2 is just the square root of the mean square
error. RMSE is used for finding the final minimized
errors in forecasted values. This metric shows the
average size of the estimated error in the predicted
value. Simply, we used this metric to measures the
quality of fit between the actual and predicted stock
prices model.

𝑅𝑜𝑜𝑡 𝑀𝑒𝑎𝑛 𝑆𝑞𝑢𝑎𝑟𝑒 𝐸𝑟𝑟𝑜𝑟𝑠 (𝑅𝑀𝑆𝐸)

1 𝑛
= √ ∑ (𝑡𝑖 − 𝑡̂𝑖 )2 (2)
𝑛 𝑖=1

Where:
𝑡𝑖 is the target or actual value of sample
output,
𝑡̂𝑖 is the adjusted or predicted value of sample
Figure 5: The training and validation performances. output,
i is the term index from 1 - n of test data
From Figure 5, the trends of the training loss and sample, and
validation loss are similar across 100 epochs of the n is total number of the test data sample.
model operations. However, training losses were In both cases (MSE and RMSE), the smaller the error
incurred from epochs 0 – 20, while validation losses and the closer the predicted value to zero, then the
were least diminishing from the epoch 0 – 60. This higher the accuracy.
implies the model was effective in learning and
understanding the patterns of the new validation/test 4.2.3 Stock Forecasting Model Outcomes
dataset supplied to it because of the catching or The effectiveness of the proposed stock price
memory inline attribute of LSTM introduced in this forecasting model based on RNN-LSTM was measured
study. Therefore, the stored records of past events using MSE and RMSE evaluation metrics defined by
were used to validate the model. Equations 1 and 2. The summary of the outcomes the
proposed model is presented in Table 2.
4.2.1 Evaluation metrics
Table 2: The proposed model performance.
Mean Squared Error: The MSE as stated in Equation 1
Training Validation
is the average square of the difference between
estimated and actual values. It is a measure of how
close a fitted line is to data points. For every data Epoch MSE RMSE MSE RMSE
point, you take the distance vertically from the point 10. 0.4749 0.6891 0.2718 0.5213
to the corresponding y value on the curve fit (the 20. 0.3626 0.6022 0.2314 0.4810
error), and square the value. Then you add up all those 30. 0.3174 0.5634 0.2176 0.4665
values for all data points, and, in the case of a fit with 40. 0.3005 0.5482 0.2094 0.4576
two parameters such as a linear fit, divide by the 50. 0.2887 0.5373 0.2012 0.4486
number of points minus two. The squaring is done so
International Conference on Smart, Secure and Sustainable Nation | S3N’2022 Page 244
 60. 0.2773 0.5266 0.1958 0.4425 The performance of the proposed model is compared
70. 0.2680 0.5177 0.1944 0.4409 with existing models of forecasting stock prices
80. 0.2615 0.5114 0.1954 0.4420 returns as presented in Table 2.
90. 0.2564 0.5064 0.1974 0.4443
100. 0.2517 0.5017 0.1999 0.4471 Table 2: Stock price returns forecasts compared

The daily and weekly forecasts for the stock price Evaluation Proposed ANN Antecedent
returns for DANGCEM on the basis of proposed model Metric Model Fuzzy-GA
is shown in Figures 6 and 7. (RNN- (Alfa et al.,
LSTM) 2020)
MSE 0.1942 0.6889 0.7192

RMSE 0.4409 0.8300 0.8481

From Table 2, after testing the three models with the

Figure 6: The short-term stock price returns
forecasts.
same dataset, the result of the performance metric
used is lower for the proposed model. The Mean
Square error (MSE) and the Root Mean Square Error
(RMSE) respectively are most common performance
metrics used in prediction models, the lower the MSE
or RMSE the higher the accuracy of prediction as there
would be excellent match between the actual and
predicted dataset.
Therefore, in comparison, the proposed model
outperformed the existing ANN and fuzzy-GA models
in predicting stock price returns due to introduction of
memory inline attributes of LSTM and the feedforward
nature of RNN deep neural networks utilized. the
proposed approach for ascertaining the stock market
prices of the companies can be attained effectively.
The graphical representation of these outcomes as
shown in Table 2 are illustrated in Figure 8.

RNN (LSTM) against ANN and

GA-Fuzzy Stock Forecasting
Models
1
Values of metrics

0.8
Figure 7: The long-term stock price returns 0.6
0.4
forecasts. 0.2
0
The distribution curves for the daily and Proposed ANN Fuzzy-GA
Model (RNN-
weekly forecasts reveal that the proposed LSTM)
model performed better for daily forecasts
Stock forecasting models
than the weekly forecasts outcomes
generated. However, in both prediction cases
MSE RMSE
considered, the model was slightly below the
true future values of stock prices. Figure 8: The stock price trends forecasting models
compared.

International Conference on Smart, Secure and Sustainable Nation | S3N’2022 Page 245
 5. CONCLUSION
This research work is concerned with the stock prices
prediction using the recurrent neural network-based
LSTM approach for better accuracy and low error
rates of outcomes. Based on the results obtained from
the experiment, the proposed RNN-LSTM
outperformed ANN, and Fuzzy-GA models deployed
for stock price movements forecasts with MSE 0.1942,
0.6889 and 0.7192 respectively. While, RMSE shows
0.4990, 0.8300 and 0.8481 for the proposed RNN
(LSTM) and ANN and GA-Fuzzy models. There is need
to customize the algorithms though to select key
sentences, extract events and identify event
sentiments related to stock markets. LSTM is an
effective model yet much research attention has not
been given to it. It can be applied in medicine,
agriculture, weather, transportation and stock trading
volumes etc. Future studies may hybrid intelligent
models, consider more stock exchange markets and
consider the effect of external factors that can
affluence stock market prediction.
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