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UNIVERSITEIT VAN PRETORIA
UNIVERSITY OF PRETORIA
Departement Bedryfs- en Sisteemingenieurswese
Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering

INGENIEURSTATISTIEK BES 221

ENGINEERING STATISTICS BES 221
Eksterne eksaminator/External examiner: Prof V S S Yadavalli
Interne eksaminator/Internal examiner: Prof Paul Kruger

November 2011/November 2011 Tyd : 75 min/Time : 75 min Punte : 50/Marks : 50

Beperkte oopboek : Studente mag een teksboek Limited open book : Students may have one text
en een gebinde lêer in hulle besit hê. book and one bounded file in their possession.
Beantwoord AL VYF (5) vrae. Answer ALL FIVE (5) questions.
Stel en motiveer alle aannames duidelik. State and motivate all assumptions clearly.

Datum vir insae : Date for perusal :

09:00, Dinsdag 29 November 2011, Ing II, K3-11 09:00, Tuesday 29 November 2011, Eng II, K3-11

QUESTION 1 / VRAAG 1 (10 marks/punte)

a) Usually a histogram is based on the RELATIVE and not the ABSOLUTE frequencies. Please
explain why. [2]
b) Given that : P(A | B) = P(A ∩ B) / P(B) but also that events A and B are mutually independent,
derive an expression for P(A ∩ B). [2]
c) It has been claimed (http://www.menshealth.about.com) that excess belly fat is a “good”
predictor for the risk of a heart attack. If this is based on an observed significantly large
positive correlation coefficient, does it necessarily mean that excess belly fat causes heart
attacks ? Please explain. [2]
d) Does the word “linear” in the term “linear regression” imply that only straight lines may be fitted
using this technique. Please explain. [2]
e) The Analysis of Variation Identity states that :Total sum of squares = Sum of squares due to
regression + Sum of squares due to error or, SST = SSR + SSE. Define the Coefficient of
Determination (R2) and explain why it may be used as a measure of the adequacy of a
regression model. [2]

a) Gewoonlik word ʼn histogram gebaseer op die RELATIEWE en nie die ABSOLUTE

frekwensies nie. Verduidelik asseblief waarom. [2]
b) Gegee dat : P(A | B) = P(A ∩ B) / P(B) maar ook dat die gebeurtenisse A en B onderling
onafhanklik is, lei ʼn uitdrukking af vir P(A ∩ B). [2]
c) Dit word beweer (http://www.menshealth.about.com) dat oortollige maag-vet ʼn “goeie”
voorspeller is vir die risiko van ʼn hartaanval. Indien dit gebaseer is op ʼn waargenome
betekenisvolle groot positiewe korrelasiekoëffisiënt, beteken dit noodwendig dat oortollige
maag-vet hartaanvalle veroorsaak ? Verduidelik asseblief. [2]
d) Impliseer die word “lineêr” in die term “lineêre regressie” dat slegs reguit lyne gepas kan word
deur van hierdie tegniek gebruik te maak. Verduidelik asseblief. [2]
e) Die Analise van Variasie Identiteit stel dat : Die totale somkwadrate = Somkwadrate as gevolg
van die regressie + Somkwadrate as gevolg van die fout of, SST = SSR + SSE. Definieer die

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Koëffisiënt van Determinasie (R2) en verduidelik waarom dit gebruik mag word as ʼn maatstaf
om te bepaal of ʼn regressiemodel voldoende is. [2]

QUESTION 2 / VRAAG 2 (10 marks/punte)

Two Grand Master chess players, Gary Kasparov and Bobby
Fischer, have played numerous games of chess against each
other in the past. Based on this historical information a
probability tree may be constructed and the associated
probabilities calculated as shown, where K1 is the event that
Kasparov wins a game and K2 is the event that Kasparov wins
the next game. Drawn games are not taken into account.

Use this information to calculate the following :

a) The total probability that Kasparov will win the next

game. [3]
b) The probability that Kasparov will win the next 10 games.
[4]
c) The probability that Kasparov will win at least 2 of the
next 10 games. [3]

Twee Grootmeester skaakspelers, Gary Kasparov en Bobby Fischer, het ʼn groot aantal spelle skaak
teen mekaar gespeel in die verlede. Gebaseer op hierdie historiese inligting mag ʼn
waarskynlikheidsboom gekonstrueer word en die gepaardgaande waarskynlikhede bereken word
soos getoon met K1 die gebeurtenis dat Kasparov ʼn spel wen en K2 die gebeurtenis dat Kasparov die
volgende spel wen. Spelle wat gelykop eindig word nie in berekening gebring nie.

Gebruik hierdie inligting om die volgende te bereken :

a) Die totale waarskynlikheid dat Kasparov die volgende spel wen. [3]
b) Die waarskynlikheid dat Kasparov die volgende 10 spelle wen. [4]
c) Die waarskynlikheid dat Kasparov ten minste 2 van die volgende 10 spelle wen. [3]

QUESTION 3 / VRAAG 3 (10 marks/punte)

Every weekday the Paw-Paw Airlines operates a flight from Johannesburg to Durban, then, using the
same plane, from Durban to Cape Town and then, still using the same plane, from Cape Town back
to Johannesburg. The times required to complete the various parts of the journey and their statistical
characteristics, are shown in the table. These times include not only the actual flight time but also
scheduled, unavoidable, delays such as take-off and landing, passenger and baggage handling, re-
fueling, etcetera. If it is assumed that the flight leaves Johannesburg exactly at 08:00 and that the
scheduled arrival time back at Johannesburg is 18:00, calculate the maximum total additional delay
time that may be tolerated to ensure that the probability for the flight to arrive more than 15 minutes
late at Johannesburg is less than 0.1.

Johannesburg Durban to Cape Town to

to Durban / Cape Town / Johannesburg /
Johannesburg Durban na Kaapstad na
na Durban Kaapstad Johannesburg
Mean / Gemiddeld 2.0 2.0 4.0
Standard deviation / Standaardafwyking 0.5 1.0 1.0

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Probability distribution / Normal / Normal / Normal /
Waarskynlikheidsverdeling Normaal Normaal Normaal

Die Piesang-lugredery bedryf elke weeksdag ʼn vlug van Johannesburg na Durban, en deur gebruik
te maak van dieselfde vliegtuig, van Durban na Kaapstad en, steeds met dieselfde vliegtuig, van
Kaapstad terug na Johannesburg. Die tye benodig om die onderskeie gedeeltes van die reis te
voltooi en die statistiese eienskappe word in die tabel getoon. Hierdie tye sluit nie net die werklike
vlugtyd in nie maar ook geskeduleerde, onvermybare, vertragings soos opstyg en land, passasier- en
bagasiehantering, brandstofinname, ensovoorts. Indien aanvaar word dat die vlug Johannesburg
verlaat presies om 08:00 en dat die geskeduleerde aankomstyd terug in Johannesburg 18:00 is,
bereken die maksimum totale bykomende vertragingstyd wat toelaatbaar is ten einde te verseker dat
die waarskynlikheid dat die vlug meer as 15 minute laat in Johannesburg sal arriveer kleiner is as
0.1.

QUESTION 4 / VRAAG 4 (10 marks/punte)

The S A Banknote Company is responsible for the printing of all of South Africa’s paper money. New
notes are placed in circulation by the South African Reserve Bank and when a note has reached the
end of its useful lifetime, it is returned to the Reserve Bank to be destroyed. In an effort to determine
the statistical lifetime characteristics of 10 Rand notes, 100 such notes are marked in a special way
and when they return to the Reserve Bank their lifetimes are recorded. The table shows the observed
frequencies.
a) Using this information to show that the mean lifetime of a 10 Rand note is 3.24 months. [2]
b) Using a Chi-square goodness-of-fit test, at a 5 percent level of significance, determine whether
the lifetime of 10 Rand notes may be modelled by an Exponential distribution. [8]

Interval /
Interval
0-4 4-8 8 - 12
Observed Frequencies /
Waargenome Frekwensies 74 21 5

Die S A Banknoot Maatskappy is verantwoordelik vir die druk van al Suid-Afrika se papiergeld. Nuwe
note word in sirkulasie geplaas deur die Suid-Afrikaanse Reserwe Bank en wanneer ʼn noot die einde
van sy bruikbare lewe bereik, word dit terug gestuur na die Reserwe Bank om vernietig te word. In ʼn
poging om die statistiese leeftydkarakteristieke van 10 Rand note te bepaal word 100 sulke note op ʼn
spesiale manier gemerk en wanneer hulle terugkeer na die Reserwe Bank word hulle leeftye
waargeneem. Die tabel toon die waargenome frekwensies.

a) Gebruik hierdie inligting om te toon dat die gemiddelde leeftyd van ʼn 10 Rand noot 3.94
maande is. [2]
b) Deur gebruik te maak van ʼn Chi-kwadraat passingstoets, by ʼn 5 persent peil-van-betekenis,
bepaal of die leeftyd van 10 Rand note gemodelleer kan word deur ʼn Eksponensiaalverdeling.
[8]

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QUESTION 5 / VRAAG 5 (10 marks/punte)

For the purposes of planning, the S A Banknote Company requires a forecast of the number of new
bank notes that will be required next month. The table shows the number (coded) of new notes that
were required for the previous 5 months as well as other information which you may find useful. Use
this information to :

a) Fit a least-squares regression line of the form y = a + bx to the data. [4]

b) Calculate a 90 percent prediction interval for December. [6]

Month New notes

Number / required /
Maand- Nuwe note
nommer benodig
Month / Maand x y x2 xy
July / Julie 1 9 1 9
August / Augustus 2 12 4 24
September / September 3 11 9 33
October / Oktober 4 14 16 56
November / November 5 16 25 80
Sum / Som 15 62 55 202

Ter wille van beplanning benodig die S A Banknoot Maatskappy ʼn vooruitskatting van die aantal
nuwe banknote wat die volgende maand benodig sal word. Die tabel toon die aantal (gekodeer) nuwe
note wat benodig was die afgelope 5 maande asook ander inligting wat u nodig mag vind. Gebruik
hierdie inligting om :

a) ʼn Kleinste-kwadraat regressielyn van die vorm y = a + bx by die data te pas. [4]

b) ʼn 90 persent vooruitskattingsinterval vir Desember te bereken. [6]

May you experience a prosperous academic New Year !

Mag u ‘n voorspoedige akademiese Nuwe Jaar belewe !
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