CALAGOS, RON PAUL T.

C-S4B1

INTERNATIONAL TRADE

THESIS/
DISSERTATION AUTHOR/S DATE ABSTRACT KEYWORDS
TITLE

1. ANALYSIS OF *Yikang Hu APRIL With a continuous rate of economic growth, the

PHILIPPINE 2022 Philippine economy is still facing a trade deficit and is *International
TRADE said to be trapped in the "Middle-Income Trap." This Economics
PATTERN issue occurs when countries struggle to cope with
AND TRADE changes in their local market and, as a result, *Trade Pattern
STRUCTURE undermine their international competitiveness.
Influential innovation and specialization, based on the *Trade
existing literature, are significant variables in Specialisation
enhancing economic competitiveness and avoiding
the middle-income trap. Hence, by employing *Philippine
qualitative research methods, adopting secondary
data, and reviewing the existing literature as the
research instruments, this project aimed to discuss
the international trade of the Philippines. The
objective of this project is to examine the trade
pattern of the Philippines by analyzing the relevant
and official data and to discuss the key model of trade
specialization of the Philippines and its application
towards trade specialization. An analysis of the
Philippines' trade patterns reveals that over the past
two decades it has been transforming from an
agricultural producer dependent on service
production to an emerging, inclusive, diversified, and
open market. However, this market still has a trade
deficit and still needs to expand its exports to boost
GDP growth. For example, abundant labor force and
relatively primary product processing are their
advantages.

2. THE IMPACT *Guillermo January The Philippines was among the most infected *Lockdown
OF Carlos 2022 countries in East Asia at the onset of the COVID-19
LOCKDOWN Arenas outbreak. This study analyzes how international trade *Exports
POLICIES ON on various margins was affected by the country’s own
INTERNATIO *Socrates lockdown policies and those of trading partners. Using *Imports
NAL TRADE Majune a monthly series of product-by-country data for the
IN THE period from January 2019 to December 2020 and an *Philippines
PHILIPPINES *Angella event study design, the paper shows that domestic
Faith lockdown measures did not affect international trade, *Global Value
Montfaucon but external lockdowns affected both ex- ports and Chains
 imports. The introduction of lockdown measures by
trading partners affected imports more than exports,
leading to 7 and 56 percent monthly average drops in
export and import values, respectively. Restrictions on
internal movements and international travel controls
in partner countries were responsible for the drop in
exports. The slump in imports was because of
workplace closure, stay at-home requirements,
restrictions on internal movement, and international
travel controls by trading partners of the Philip- pines.
Intermediate goods were the key driver of the drop in
imports following foreign lockdowns, reflecting supply
disruptions in backward global value chain
participation. At the same time, exports of
intermediate goods were more resilient to the
lockdown policies. Finally, both exports and imports
were more affected at the extensive margin than the
intensive margin, as lockdown measures hindered
interactions among people, in turn reducing the
potential of businesses to create new relationships
and launch new products in foreign markets. Overall,
diversified and geographically dispersed suppliers can
help countries adjust better to future disruptions.

3. THE *Hasudnuga
RELATIONSH n, Albert JULY 2021 This study aims to explore the relationship between *Palm Oil
IP BETWEEN the expansion of oil palm plantations and income
OIL PALM *Raeskyesa, inequality in Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, and the *Expansion
EXPANSION Dewa Gede Philippines. The relationship was investigated using
AND Sidan panel data analysis from 2000 to 2019. The results *Inequality
INCOME indicate a mixed effect of palm oil expansion on
INEQUALITY inequality, in which land use for oil palm farming has a *International
IN significant and negative effect on income inequality as Trade
INDONESIA, measured by the Gini Index. However, fertilizer
MALAYSIA, consumption and yield in oil palm activities have *Data Panel
THE positive relationships with income inequality. This
PHILIPPINES, suggests the importance of supporting equal access to
ANF both financing and capacity building. Lastly, this study
THAILAND: presents scenarios with and without government
INTERNATIO intervention.
NA TRADE
INSIGHT

4. THE BATTLE *Connie Hoe JUNE While increasing taxes on tobacco is one of the most *Advocacy
TO INCREASE 2021 effective tobacco control measures, its adoption has
TOBACCO *Caitlin been slow compared to other tobacco control policies. *Tobacco tax
TAXES: Weiger Given this, there is an urgent need to better
LESSONS understand the political and economic dynamics that *Policy change
 FROM *Joanna E. lead to its adoption despite immense tobacco industry
PHILIPPINES Cohen opposition. The primary aim of this study is to explore *Advocacy
AND the process, actors, and determinants that helped coalition
UKRAINE lead to the successful passage of the 2012 Sin Tax framework
Reform Law in the Philippines and the 2017 seven-
year plan for tobacco tax increases in *Industry
Ukraine. Method: Under the guidance of the Advocacy interference
Coalition Framework, we used a case study approach
gathering data from key informant interviews (n = 37)
and documents (n = 56). Subsequently, cross-case
analysis was undertaken to identify themes across the
two cases. Results: We found that external events in
the Philippines and Ukraine triggered policy
subsystem instability and tipped the scale in the favor
of tobacco tax proponents. In the Philippines,
elections brought forth a new leader in 2010 who was
keen to achieve universal health care and improve tax
collection efficiency. In Ukraine, the European Union
Association Agreement came into force in 2017 and
included the Tobacco Products Directive requiring
Ukraine to synchronize its excise taxes to that of the
European Union. Exploiting these key entry points,
tobacco tax proponents formed a multi-sectoral
coalition and used a multi-pronged approach. In both
countries, respected economic groups and experts
who could generate timely evidence were present and
used local as well as international data to counter
opponents who also used an array of strategies to
water down the tax policies. Conclusions: Findings are
largely consistent with the Advocacy Coalition
Framework and suggest the need for tobacco tax
proponents to 1) form a multi-sectoral coalition, 2)
include respected economic groups and experts who
can generate timely evidence, 3) use both local data
and international experiences, and 4) undertake a
multi-pronged approach.

5. DUTERTE’S *BRUNO AUGUST This article proposes a theoretical framework for *Theory of
PIVOT TO HENDLER 2018 understanding Filipino president Rodrigo Duterte’s Asymmetry
CHINA, AND celebrated ‘pivot to China.’ It begins by discussing the
PROSPECTS model of asymmetric relations as a suitable *Double
FOR framework for understanding relations between structural
SETTLING highly unequal states, and the concept of dual asymmetry
THE SOUTH structural asymmetry as a means of theorising the
CHINA SEA triangular relations among the Philippines, the USA *South China
DISPUTES and China since the end of the Cold War. Next, it Sea Disputes
presents various economic and political indicators of
the shift in Filipino foreign policy under Duterte. It *Filipino
 goes on to propose a theoretical model for identifying Foreign Policy
the linkages between elements of political economy
and international security from the perspective of *Filipino-Sino
Brantly Womack’s theory of asymmetry. Lastly, it relations
presents three scenarios for resolving the territorial
dispute in the South China Sea (SCS) between the
Philippines and China: two with maximum gains for
one country only, and a third with an acceptable
result for both countries as a product of mutual
concessions.

6. THE *Guinigundo, DECEMBE This paper analyses the extent and impact of *Impact of
GLOBALISATI Diwa C. R 2017 globalisation in the Philippines in terms of trade, globalisation
ON finance and migration. In the Philippines, trade
EXPERIENCE globalisation and migration have been more *Challenges of
AND ITS prominent than financial globalisation. While globalisation
CHALLENGES empirical estimates show that globalisation has
FOR THE positively affected the country’s economic growth and *Policy
PHILIPPINE employment, substantial evidence for its impact on response to
ECONOMY inequality and poverty has yet to be found, as globalisation
preliminary estimates show mixed results. There are
both winners and losers among industries and in the *Migration
labour market. Thus, more inclusive policies could
potentially help cushion the negative consequences of *Remittances
globalisation and facilitate adjustments to narrow the
gap between winners and losers. Towards this end, *Financial
the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas has made inclusion
contributions primarily through its focus on low and
stable inflation; the facilitation of greater financial *Philippines
inclusion; and greater involvement in global
cooperation efforts to further strengthen rule-based
international transactions

7. AN *Biemundo, MARCH This study explored the impact of international trade *International
EMPIRICAL Kim 2O17 on the economic growth of the Philippines covering Trade
ANALYSIS the period 1981 to 2019. The study’s objective is
ON THE *Agustin, achieved by employing Multivariate Ordinary Least *Economic
IMPACT OF Nicasio Angel Squares Regression (with annual Real GDP as Growth,
INTERNATIO J. regressand, and Exports, Imports, Trade Openness,
NA TRADE IN Exchange rate, Gross Capital Formation, and Foreign *Internationali
PHILIPPINE Direct Investment as regressors). The key findings of zation
ECONOMIC the study are as follows: (1) Expanding exports and
GROWTH continuous capital accumulation contribution to
Philippine Economic growth, (2) Import-based
Strategy is not applicable in the Philippine setting.
Thus, imports have significant drawbacks, such as the
devaluation of the peso, which has a significant and
negative impact on the Philippine Trade Performance.
 Moreover, some diagnostics in the model were
detected; (1) perfect multicollinearity and (2) non-
normality of residuals.
NOVEMB
8. MODELING *Urrutia, ER 2016 Foreign Trade plays an important role in economic *Imports
AND Jackie D. development of a country. It encourages local
FORECASTIN investment and increases foreign investments by *Exports
G FOREIGN *Analo, Eliza providing incentives to foreign investors. Foreign
TRADE OF Mae D. Trade also brings price stability and increases national *SARIMA
THE income of the country. Therefore, it is very essential
PHILIPPINES *Aninipot, to monitor the trend of Foreign Trade of the *Stepwise
USING TIME Precious Philippines. The researchers identified the Regression
SERIES Marjon R. determinants of Imports and Exports using Stepwise Analysis
SARIMA Regression Analysis and forecasted Foreign Trade of
MODEL *Gumapac, the Philippines using time series statistical forecasting *Forecasting
Khristine A. process, Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving
Average (SARIMA). Correspondingly, Pairwise Granger
*Quinto, Causality was utilized in order to verify the causal
Jocelyn Q. relationship between the different economic
variables. The study examined twenty three years
monthly data from 1990 up to 2013. The bases of
gathered data were from National Statistical
Coordination Board, Department of Labor and
Employment, and Banko Sentral ng Pilipinas. The
study showed that all of the Independent variables:
Exchange Rate ( ), Monthly Domestic Crude Oil Prices (
), Inflation Rate ( ) and Interest Rate ( ) are significant,
thus, can actually
predict Imports (y1). On the other hand, there are
only three significant factors in dependent variable –
Exports (y2). These are: Exchange Rate ( ), Monthly
Domestic Crude Oil Prices ( ) and Inflation Rate ( ). In
addition, Pairwise Granger Causality Test indicated
that Domestic Crude Oil have uni- directional Granger
causal relationship with Import and Export. The best
fitted models used in generating a 7- year forecast of
Imports and Exports are SARIMA (5, 0, 8) x (0, 1, 1)12
and SARIMA (7, 2, 3) x (0, 1, 1)12 respectively for it
achieved 95.63% and 88.34% variability. And to test
the significance of the actual and predicted value,
Paired t- test was used, signifying that there is no
significant difference between actual and predicted
value. This study will be of significance in estimating
future Foreign Trade of the Philippines in order to
prepare for the expected changes and to bring
accurate and realistic decisions.

9. NEW *Verónica FEBRUAR Despite emerging markets are some of the fastest *Emerging
 CRITERIA TO Baena Y 2015 growing economies in the world and represent Markets
SELECT countries that are experiencing a substantial
FOREIGN *Julio economic transformation, little is known about the *Global
ENTRY Cerviño factors influencing choices of foreign entry mode in Franchising
MODE those markets. Especially, regarding companies that
CHOICE OF franchise overseas. In an attempt to expand our *Market Entry
GLOBAL knowledge of this topic, this paper presents an Strategies
FRANCHISE empirical assessment of the relationship between a
CHAINS INTO set of different variables with the four possible modes *Transaction
EMERGING of entry that franchisor companies can adopt Cost Theory
MARKETS overseas: i) direct franchising; ii) master franchising;
iii) joint venture; and iv) direct investment. Besides
the host market's political stability, economic
potential and unemployment rate were proposed as
independent variables, we controlled for other
variables that may affect foreign entry mode choice:
the geographical distance between the host and home
country, the franchisor's international experience as
well as the efficiency of contract enforcement in the
host country.

10. A NOTE ON *Guinigundo, OCTOBER This study primarily examines the extent of daily *Centra banks
THE Diwa C. 2014 foreign exchange intervention by the Bangko Sentral
EFFECTIVENE ng Pilipinas (BSP) between 2005 and 2010, and its *Foreign
SS OF effectiveness in controlling the daily volatility of the exchange
INTERVENTI exchange rate. Using an exponential GARCH model, intervention
ON IN THE we find that participation in the spot market remains
FOREIGN the main method used by the BSP to influence the *Philippines
EXCHANGE volatility of the exchange rate, while intervention in
MARKET: the foreign exchange market through derivatives is
THE CASE OF secondary. The results also show that the BSP is
THE sensitive to large swings in the exchange rate.
PHILIPPINES However, we find no evidence that the BSP targets a
particular exchange rate level over thirty-day or
hundred-day trading horizons. With regard to
effectiveness, our estimates indicate that the BSP’s
intervention in the spot market has been effective in
containing same-day volatility. The effectiveness of
intervention in the foreign exchange market is
measured by how significantly spot market
intervention and forward transactions influence the
daily return on the exchange rate. Over longer trading
days, our results show that intervention at larger
volumes or sustained central bank actions are
significant in managing large fluctuations in the
exchange rate.