No single piece of macroeconomic advice given by the
experts to their government has ever had the results predicted. BITS Pilani Recapitulation of the last class Highlighted the scope of macroeconomics along wih the variables. Discussed the goals, importance and strategy of the Course Discussed the brief outline of the course handout Discussed the important questions of macroeconomics Why do we need to study Macroeconomics; As an investor, as a planner, as a Manager and as an intellectually curious person.
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As an Investor
Where are the interest rate heading?
Which sector will do best/worst during the next quarter, year or decade? What is the interest rate? Why are Banks reducing interest rates? What is inflation? What are the measures of inflation in India? What is the investment sentiments in the economy? What is the exchange rate currently. Which economy we have better investment avenues?
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As a Planner What determines the interest rates and what are appropriate monetary targets? What the appropriate monetary tools to apply? What are the appropriate taxes to raise? What is the composition of best budget? How will international trade affect jobs, inflation and credit? What is the cost of inflation? What is the cost of fiscal deficit? What is the cost of unemployment? What is the cost of depreciation of the domestic currency?
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Manager and Employee
What growth will my current market provide if I maintain
the share? Can I raise my prices as rapidly as costs? What opportunities are emerging in the emerging and developed countries. Should I recruit more or not? What is the relationship between wage and profit? Which sector I will target for investment and growth?
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Intellectually curious person Why do business cycle exist? Why inflation? How be inflation cured? Why exchange rate is unstable? What is interest rate? Why interest rate is so important? Why financial market is unstable? And so on……
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Macroeconomic models
• Variables are exogenous/endogenous:
• Endogenous variables are the variables whose values are determined by the model. • A dependent variable is endogenous • Exogenous variables are those whose value is determined by forces outside the model. • Macroeconomic theory will help us to identify those variables from the system and establish the theoretical linkages between those two set of variables.
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Macroeconomic models • Variables are exogenous/endogenous: • Endogenous variables are the variables whose values are determined by the model. • A dependent variable is endogenous • Exogenous variables are those whose value is determined by forces outside the model. • Macroeconomic theory will help us to identify those variables from the system and establish the theoretical linkages between those two set of variables. Policy Questions in Macroeconomics
• Do you believe that interest rate decrease will
increase growth? • Are you expecting the monetary authorities to leave inflation unchecked for better economic growth? • Do you suggest the economies should not bother about fiscal deficits and current A/C deficits? • Should the economy try to have more employment or less inflation? Chapter 2: Classical Macroeconomics: Output and Employment BITS Pilani Classical Macroeconomics Macroeconomics originated in 1930s after the great depression in 1929. The problems of great depression added urgency to the study of macroeconomic questions. The book containing the theory, “The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money” by J M Keynes published in 1936. The process of change in economic thinking that resulted from this work has been called Keynesian Revolution. But Revolution against what? What was the old orthodoxy? Keynesian termed it as the “Classical Economics”
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Classical Macroeconomics And it is this body of macroeconomic thought that we will study in this chapter. J M Keynes termed “Classicals” to refer all the economists who had written macroeconomic issues before 1936. They are; ▪ Adam Smith Wealth of nations 1776 ▪ David Ricardo Principles of Political Economy 1817 ▪ John Stauart Mill Principles of Political Economy 1848 ▪ A Marshall Principles of Economics 1920 ▪ A C Pigou Principles of Economics 1933.
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Classical Revolution Bullionism is an economic theory that defines wealth by the amount of precious metals owned..
• To classical economist, the equilibrium level of output
when actual level of output is equal to potential level of output. • Classical economics emerged as a revolution against a body of econometric doctrine known as “Mercantilism”. • Two tenets of mercantilism are (1) bullionism and (2) Capitalism • Adherence to these tenets, led countries to secure more export, more materials, gold and silver through trade and have favorable trade. • State action was felt necessary to develop capitalist system. • Foreign trade was carefully regulated.
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Classical Revolution
• In contrast to mercantilism, classical emphasized the
importance of real factors in determining the wealth of nations. • Money acts as the means of exchange. Most questions in macroeconomics were answered without analyzing the role of money. • The growth of the economy was the result of the stock of factors of production and the advancement of techniques of production • Classicals mistrusted the role of Government in the economy and belief in the free market mechanism.
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Classical Macroeconomics
Classical economists emphasized;
1. The importance of real factors in determining the wealth
of nations 2. They believe on the free-market mechanism concepts 3. Money plays the role of facilitating transactions as the medium of exchange 4. They also mistrusted the role of government 5. Stressed the role of individual self interest in solving macroeconomic issues.
We turn to the models constructed by classical economists
to support for these positions. BITS Pilani, Pilani Campus Classical Theory of Output and Employment - Outline
The Production Function
The Demand for Labor The Supply of Labor Labor Market Equilibrium
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The Production Function
The central relationship in the classical model is
production function. The production function summarizes the relationship between total output and total input assuming a given technology. Y = F (K, N) …(1) – Parameters; • Y = total output • K = stock of capital • N = quantity of labour
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BITS Pilani, Pilani Campus Employment Classical economists assumes that quantity of labour is determined by forces demand and supply in the labour market. The hallmark of classical labour market analysis is that – Market works well – Firms and individual workers optimize their decisions. – They have perfect information about relevant prices. – There are no barriers to the adjustment of money wages; i.e. market clears. ❑ The purchasers of labour services are firms. To see how aggregate demand for labour (employment) are decided, we begin considering the labour demand for individual firm (ith Firm).
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Demand for Labour
In short run, output is varied solely by changing labour
input so that choice of level of output and quantity of labour inputs are one decision. The perfectly competitive the firm owner will employ the labour till the point where the marginal cost of producing a single output = marginal revenue received from its sale. For perfectly competitive firm the marginal revenue is equal to the product price. Hence, the equilibrium employment are obtained by equalizing marginal cost of producing a single output with price of product.
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Demand for Labour i means calculating for 1 firm, i th firm
• MC = marginal labour cost (labour is the only input)
• MCi = W/MPNi • W = wage and • MPN = number of units produced by additional units of labour. • With the condition of profit maximization as P is the price of product • MCi = P; W is cost of getting labor that is wage • P = W/MPN • Or W/P = MPNi • Or W = MPN.P (MRPN) • So, the firm owner will hire up to the point where revenue obtained from additional output produced by one more worker (MPN.P) is equal to the money wage paid to the worker.
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Demand for Labour
❑ How much labor do firms want to use?
– Analysis at the margin: costs and benefits of hiring one
extra worker • If real wage (w) > marginal product of labor (MPN), profit rises if number of workers declines • If w < MPN, profit rises if number of workers increases • Firms’ profits are highest when w = MPN • Note: w = (W/P)